@ 8f291fe3:1cbc5ad2

比特幣現貨 ETF 買氣持續升溫，數位資產管理公司 CoinShares 周一指出，加密貨幣投資產品上周流入資金達到創紀錄的 24.5 億美元，其中光是比特幣基金就吸引了高達 99% 、 24.2 億美元的資金流入，成為吸金主力。  [CoinShares 研究主管 James Butterfill 表示](https://blog.coinshares.com/volume-170-digital-asset-fund-flows-weekly-report-1ec8ffde2dda)，今年迄今為止，加密貨幣投資基金的資金流入總額已達到驚人的 52 億美元，相較之下，去年全年的吸金規模為 [22.25 億美元](https://blockcast.it/2024/01/04/bitcoin-dominates-crypto-investment-inflows-surpassing-1-9-billion/)。 受惠於錢潮洶湧、幣價行情高漲，加密貨幣基金公司目前的資產管理規模（AUM）合計達 670 億美元，為 2021 年 12 月上一輪牛市高峰以來首見。 至於比特幣現貨 ETF 上周的表現，根據 CoinShares 數據，貝萊德（BlackRock）的 IBIT 和富達（Fidelity）的 FBTC 分別吸金 16 億美元和 6.48 億美元，足以抵銷掉灰度（Grayscale）GBTC 多達 6.23 億美元的資金外流。此外。 James Butterfill 說：「這意味著資金流入的速度明顯提升，廣泛分散在各個發行商之間，表明人們對現貨 ETF 的興趣日益濃厚。」 雖然比特幣基金獲得了大部分的資金流入，但其他加密貨幣基金也頗受關注，例如以太幣（ETH）基金就吸引了 2,110 萬美元的資金流入；Avalanche（AVAX）基金流入 100 萬美元；Chainlink（LINK）和 Polygon（MATIC）產品則各別流入 90 萬美元；而 Solana（SOL）則因網路當機打擊了市場情緒，導致投資產品資金外流 160 萬美元。 James Butterfill 補充道，區塊鏈股票 ETF 上周也見到投資人獲利了結，資金流出總額達 1.67 億美元。 

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test

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

testing testing. again. again.

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

testing sorry. Will update this after the fact. Updated.

@ f3df9bc0:a95119eb

hello

@ 03742c20:2df9aa5d

ปกติแล้ว Nostr extension ส่วนใหญ่จะมีอยู่ในเบราว์เซอร์บน PC ถ้าเป็นในมือถือเบราว์เซอร์ต่างๆจะไม่มีฟังก์ชั่นนี้มาให้ นอกจาก Kiwi browser และ Firefox for Android ถ้าเป็น ios ส่วนใหญ่จะใช้ Nostore แต่สำหรับ Android แล้วมีวิธีที่ง่ายกว่าดาวน์โหลด kiwi browser แล้วผติดตั้ง Extension มันหลายขั้นตอนเกินไปอาจจะยากสำหรับใครที่พึ่งเริ่มใช้งาน ในปัจจุบันมีแอปพลิเคชันที่ชื่อว่า Spring ที่ช่วยให้ง่ายขึ้น https://spring.site/  # Spring ดาวน์โหลด [Spring](https://spring.site/) มาติดตั้งบนเครื่องของเรา 1 เปิด spring ขึ้นมาแล้วกดที่มุมขวาบนที่เป็นรูปคนเพื่อ Login  2 Login ในการเข้าใช้งานทาง Spring มีให้เราเลือกหลายแบบแต่ถ้าง่ายสุดแนะนำให้เราเลือก Import private key จากนั้นให้วาง private key ของเราแล้วกด save  แค่นี้เราก็ใช้งานได้แล้วแล้ว > จะสังเกตได้ว่าภายใน spring จะรวม Clients ต่างๆที่มีอยู่บน Nostr ไว้เกือบหมดเลย ## งั้นเรามาลองใช้งานกันดีกว่า เลือก Clients ที่เราอยากใช้งานแล้วกดเปิดขึ้นมาแล้วกด Login จากนั้นให้เลือก Login with extension ทาง Spring จะขึ้นถาม Permission ให้เรากด Allow แค่นี้เราก็ Login ได้แล้ว  > ไปลองใช้งานกันได้ครับภายในโปรโตคอล Nostr มีอะไรให้เราลองอีกเยอะเลยครับ ใครติดขัดขัดตรงไหนแวะมาพูดคุยกันได้ครับ แล้วเจอกันใหม่ครั้งหน้า บ๊ะบาย #Siamstr #Nostr

@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

--- ## No. 1 - The Less Touristy "Bund" https://image.nostr.build/ec45a7a71faf6504321f984665123ecda239c16fcb267286316536802e000ddc.jpg The Bund is certainly a must-see if you are traveling to Shanghai for the first time - and it will be at the top of every travel guide out there, for good reason - there are equally as stunning alternatives away from the crowds. If you want to enjoy the skyline from a more relaxed perspective, consider the Pudong side of the river. There are parks, basketball courts, and green spaces along the riverbank for you to chill at and take in the sights. You can also hop on a ferry or a sightseeing boat to cross the river and admire the views from the renowned Bund. --- ## No. 2 - Walks Along Golden Street https://image.nostr.build/9e396a1ba9d2b6ea3077d6f1d99d9a069f5df1f455f774cd2d693d857f5e01e2.jpg This one is out in Gubei, a suburban area in the west of Shanghai. It may be a bit of a trek, but it is worth it if you are looking for a more relaxing and peaceful pedestrian street in the city. Golden Street, or Jinxiu Road, is a great place to walk a dog, grab an afternoon drink, or enjoy a romantic dinner with your loved one. While it may be a bit far from downtown, it makes for a great joyride on your scooter or bicycle. --- ## No. 3 - Moganshan Road Graffiti Wall https://image.nostr.build/92b22c11564e3732f14a10c1701f20d64e1baf444d4a8e851e3e4543f8aa5284.jpg Moganshan Road is a gem for all things art. It is home to M50, the best art district in the city, where you will find dozens of galleries, studios, and workshops showcasing a wide range of art. There are also plenty of cool spots scattered around the area, particularly the graffiti wall. The wall is a welcome contrast to some of the drab and monotonous architecture found around the city; with colorful display of street art featuring various styles and themes. Stop by and admire the works of local and international artists, and even jump in to join them in adding your own mark. The wall is constantly evolving, so you can always find something new. --- ## No. 4 - Jiaotong University in the Fall https://image.nostr.build/9e0873ed9b9c40254f6d5f5522ded5a62d0dd88b073fb18c346598c3a9dd9269.jpg Easily one of the best spots in town for catching rows of bright yellow and red leaves. Jiaotong University is one of the oldest and most prestigious universities in China. The campus is located in Xuhui District and has a mix of Chinese and Western architectural styles to admire as well. Try to visit in late October or early November for the best leaf-peeping. You can walk along the tree-lined paths, set up a blanket in the field for a picnic, or simply take photos and enjoy the scenery. --- ## No. 5 - Day Drinking at Highline https://image.nostr.build/9a722c7646e3a232c71f083bfe42120954f7ce47b790e1140f6f91747fb08302.jpg Hands down one of the top five rooftop bars in the city, along with Bar Rouge, Kartel, and others; Highline is a go-to-spot that offers great views of the city and excellent food. Find it on the sixth floor of the Ascott Hotel in Huaihai Road in Xintiandi. Nothing beats a laid back Saturday afternoon at Highline. I prefer the views during the day, though it is equally as nice a night. Sip cocktails, wine, or beer, and enjoy the music and vibe. Highline is a perfect place to spend an afternoon. --- ### Additional Photos https://image.nostr.build/24d01f75be1999cb0e6524536fc86bf6ea55453b7599e8d2aa38697cae8b1e5e.jpg https://image.nostr.build/5974f8953906a039bbbf42b5a5e2a543f32893ea2de87937343cf223f6c599df.jpg https://image.nostr.build/c6d475edf3db206490cdf7b7c783923ff2a7d24dc5303b3f1e9d87b43cb23edf.jpg https://image.nostr.build/1a762728d90a3224819d448ac60e20910216300845d3c1b99b631b1134430a66.jpg https://image.nostr.build/906d3367c0529df385653d3eef2e4049c25dd5c97de150d9dda88d2f79141fa8.jpg --- Originally published as an Instagram Guide on Feb. 02, 2021. Reworked and published at [habla.news/u/hes@nostrplebs.com/1708203955986]() on Feb. 17, 2024. Find more of my writing here: [https://habla.news/u/hes@nostrplebs.com]() View my website here: [www.connorhesen.net]()

@ 10f074e8:46423506

test

@ 10f074e8:46423506

asdf test test

@ d91191e3:7efd4075

Before I tell you how to design perfect software, let's look at the two most common design processes in use today. These don't work, yet are firmly applied by a majority of engineers and designers, especially in software where it's possible to construct byzantine complexity. They are slow-motion tragedies but can be fun to watch, from a safe distance. ## Shit Driven Development (SDD) The most popular design process in large businesses is *Shit Driven Development*. SDD feeds off the belief that ideas are scarce and we just need a good idea to make money. The main output of SDD is expensive "ideations", concepts, design documents, and finally products that go straight into the garbage. 1. The *Creative People* come up with long lists of "we could do X and Y". Once the creative work of ideation has been done it's just a matter of implementation. 2. Managers and consultants pass these brilliant ideas to UX designers. 3. The designs get passed to engineers, who scratch their heads and wonder who came up with such stupid nonsense. The designs do not factor in the practical costs of implementation. Minor whims create weeks of work. The project gets delayed and the managers bully the engineers into working harder. Something resembling a working product makes it out the door, but no-one wants to use it. After twelve months of intense marketing, the company shelves it and buys a competing product from a small start-up. #### The main lessons of SDD Ideas are cheap. No exceptions. There are no brilliant ideas. The starting point for a good design process is to collect problems that confront people, and filter out anything that isn't valuable enough to solve. Success depends on how good and cheap the solution is, how important the problem is, and how simple the solution is to actually use. ## Complexity Driven Development (CDD) Really good engineering teams can usually build good products. But the vast majority of products still end up being too complex and less successful than they might be. This is because specialist teams, even the best, usually follow Complexity Driven Development (CDD). Management correctly identifies some interesting and difficult problem with economic value. In doing so they leapfrog any Shit Driven Developemt team. The team loves building things and they get straigh to it, starting with prototypes and core layers. These work as designed and the team is encouraged and enthusiastic. They go off into intense design and architecture discussions, coming up with elegant schemas that look beautiful and solid. Management comes back and challenges team with yet more difficult problems. We tend to equate value with cost, so the harder the problem, and more expensive to solve, the more the solution should be worth, in their minds. The team, being engineers and thus loving to build stuff, build stuff. They build and build and build and end up with massive, perfectly designed complexity. The products go to market, and the market scratches its head and asks, "seriously, is this the best you can do?" People do use the products, especially if they aren't spending their own money in climbing the learning curve. Management gets positive feedback from its larger customers, who share the same idea that high cost (in training and use) means high value. Meanwhile somewhere across the world, a small team is solving the same problem using Simplicity Driven Development, and a year later smashes the market to little pieces. CDD is characterized by a team obsessively solving the wrong problems to the point of ridiculousness. CDD products tend to be large, ambitious, complex, and unpopular. A lot of open source software is the output of CDD processes. It is insanely hard for engineers to stop extending a design to cover more potential problems. They argue, "what if someone wants to do X?" but never ask themselves, "what is the real value of solving X?" A good example of CDD in practice is Bluetooth, a complex, over-designed set of protocols that users hate. It continues to exist only because there are no alternatives. Bluetooth is perfectly secure, which is close to useless for a proximity protocol. At the same time it lacks a standard API for developers, meaning it's really costly to use Bluetooth in applications. CDD is a form of large-scale "rabbit holing", in which designers and engineers cannot distance themselves from the technical details of their work. They add more and more features, utterly misreading the economics of their work. #### The main lessons of CDD - Making stuff that you don't immediately have a need for is pointless. Doesn't matter how talented or brilliant you are, if you just sit down and make stuff, you are most likely wasting your time. - Not all problems are not equal. Some are simple, and some are complex. Ironically, solving the simpler problems often has more value to more people than solving the really hard ones. - It is crucial to have a "stop mechanism", a way to set short, hard deadlines that force people to make smaller, simpler answers to just the most crucial problems. ## Reality Driven Development (RDD) Reality Driven Development starts with a realization: we do not know what we have to make until after we start making it. Coming up with ideas, or large-scale designs isn't just wasteful, it's directly toxic to creating truly accurate solutions. The really juicy problems are hidden away in crevices across the landscape. Any activity except active scouting creates a fog that hides those crevices. You need to keep mobile, pack light, and move fast. RDD works as follows: We collect a set of interesting problems (by looking at how people use technology or other products) and we line these up from simple to complex, looking for and identifying patterns of use. We take the simplest, most dramatic problem and we solve this with a minimal plausible solution, or "patch". Each patch solves exactly a genuine and agreed problem in a brutally minimal fashion. We apply one measure of quality to patches, namely "can this be done any simpler while still solving the stated problem?" We can measure complexity in terms of concepts and models that the user has to learn or guess in order to use the patch. The fewer, the better. A perfect patch solves a problem with zero learning required by the user. Our product development consists of a patch that solves the problem "we need a proof of concept" and then evolves in an unbroken line to a mature series of products, through hundreds or thousands of patches piled on top of each other. We do not do anything that is not a patch. We enforce this rule with formal processes that demands that every activity or task is tied to a genuine and agreed problem, explicitly enunciated and documented. We build our projects into a supply chain where each project can provide problems to its "suppliers" and receive patches in return. This arrangement creates a "stop mechanism" - when people are impatiently waiting for a patch, we necessarily cut our work short. Individuals are free to work on any projects, and provide patches at any place they feel it's worthwhile. No individuals "own" any project, except to enforce the formal processes. A single project can have many variations, each a collection of different, competing patches. Projects export formal and documented interfaces so that upstream (client) projects are unaware of change happening in supplier projects. Thus multiple supplier projects can compete for client projects, in effect creating a free and competitive market. We tie our supply chain to real users and we iterate the whole process in rapid cycles so that a problem received from a user can be analyzed, evaluated, and solved with a patch in a few hours. At every moment from the very first patch, our product is shippable. This is essential, because a large proportion of patches will be wrong (10-30%) and only by giving the product to users can we know which patches have become problems and themselves need solving. RDD is a form of "hill climbing algorithm" or a drunken stumble to greatness. It's a reliable way of finding optimal solutions to the most significant problems in an unknown landscape. This was created as a collaboration between G and Pieter H.

@ 642ef7b5:40542543

最近很多人說：「果殼，你真的很幸運！比特幣5萬了，你買這麼低點，現在漲成這樣，讓你過好年。」 「果殼，你新書一上市，就碰到牛市，也太爽了吧！」 我當然很幸運，有我喜歡的工作，讓我有固定的勞動收入，但同時，我認同矽谷創業家納瓦爾（Naval Ravikant ）強調的：如何不靠運氣致富。 過年很多人想拼手氣、靠運氣抽刮刮樂、抽尾牙大獎，但我的手氣通常都很差。 我所有比特幣，都不是靠運氣買的。都是貨真價實，一點一滴買回來的，我把定期購買比特幣當成是最好的儲蓄，靠的是認知，與時間差。 認知：比特幣是數位黃金 創業家納瓦爾說：「不要浪費時間學習商業技能或讀商業故事，裡面有太多倖存者偏差，應該多學習基礎原理。」 比特幣價值儲存的特性比肩黃金，但稀缺性更好，尤其在減半週期前夕，是好的累積時間點。 我相信分析師Plan B的The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) 模型: 主要考慮兩個變數，現存供應量 (Stock) 及資產的年產量 (Flow)。這樣的計算方式是為了量化稀缺性（Scarcity），而比特幣的每四年減半是最重要的稀缺事件。 在 2100 萬枚比特幣的最大供應上限中，約 1800 萬個比特幣已經被開採出來，其餘的預計將在 西元2140 年開採完畢。 庫存與流量的比值越高，資產估值就越高，也就是以「稀少性」衡量資產價值。比特幣2022年的庫存流量比(SF)，約為 57(年)，在預計 2024 年減半之後，比特幣的 SF 比率可能會飆升至接近 120。作為對比，黃金的庫存流量比在2022年是62（205,235頓存量/3,300頓流量），意思是開採出目前黃金存量，需要62年。  隨著區塊獎勵減半，每四年流入市場的新比特幣 (Flow) 產量減半，這會提高 S2F 比率，如同上圖的粗白色線，其預測的比特幣價格每四年呈現階梯式上升(圖片來源)。 但有模型是一件事，如何做是另一件事。 我的新書-加密法律第五章提到： 「買比特幣人人都會講，但一般人很難累積比特幣⋯會有很多事情讓你想賣掉。 我目前在進行一個小實驗，設定的目標是：平均每日定期定額投資一百美元，持續累積比特幣。」  （比特幣其他特性，我的新書裡有詳細解釋） 時間差：早於華爾街 第二個是時間差，因為有人還不相信，甚至傻傻的認為比特幣是騙局（這不只是時間差，還有智商稅） 很多人也還在觀望，因此早期投入的，會有更大的優勢。我在新書加密法律第一章提到：「美國的加密戰略⋯目前加密貨幣的監管世界形成兩大陣營⋯另一大陣營即是美國，美國支持以『美元法幣』作為錨定的穩定幣，並將支付及商用領域開放，對於特定加密貨幣業務，則加以監管。」 但需要等待，等待時差被拉平，這需要極大的耐心，因為你不知道要到等多久，而且需要反覆的「認知確認」。 我比特幣從兩年前的5萬美元，一路買下來，最低到1萬6千，整整有一年半的嚴重下跌、底盤盤整。 現在時間差逐漸在弭平中，過去十年，美國證管會一直都拒絕核可現貨比特幣ETF。美國證管會（SEC）於2024年1月10日核准了首批直接投資比特幣的ETF，比特幣現貨ETF架構裡，機構會真正持有比特幣，這與投資於比特幣期貨的商品不同。投資比特幣期貨，是以特定價格，在之後的日期買入或賣出比特幣合約。 因此我認為，絕對不是運氣好，我們必須找到時間差，至少要比華爾街早一步。我知道今天的情況會發生，我只是不知道確切何時，只能先準備好，慢慢等。 想當初在籌備這本 #加密法律，簽約後，我跟出版社沒有訂實際出版日期，出版社的夥伴常常很急，覺得要趕著出版，我卻一點都不急，一次又一次反覆修改。 因為我每天都在等，等待的時間，無所事事，就一直寫，我相信這一天會到來，所以我只是把書先寫好，等著這一天發生。 做事不靠運氣，靠運氣，反而常常倒霉。 這本書，加密法律：幣圈律師的真摯告白，是我不靠運氣做事的最好紀錄。  #加密法律 #幣圈律師的真摯告白 #果殼

@ 642ef7b5:40542543

（示意圖／圖片取自unsplash） 歐洲中央銀行（European Central Bank，ECB）執行董事會成員 Piero Cipollone 本週在歐洲議會經濟和貨幣事務委員會上，談到了發行數位歐元相關準備工作的目前進度，並詳細闡述了歐洲央行在數位歐元籌備階段正面臨的四個關鍵問題。 包括尋找合適供應商來開發數位歐元平台和基礎建設、編寫數位歐元相關規則手冊、確保金融穩定，以及在涉及數位支付時，要能高度確保用戶隱私。 事實上早在去年 6 月，歐盟執委會（European Commission）就公佈了支持數位歐元的立法計劃，稱這將確保歐洲民眾能夠在整個歐元區免費、離線且安全地使用數位歐元進行數位支付。 而據 Coindesk 去年10月報導，法國央行總裁戴加洛（Francois Villeroy de Galhau）表示，歐洲央行將在幾周內，制定關於批發型 CBDC 的計劃，以使金融機構結算證券和外匯交易方式更創新。 de Galhau 表示，相較於零售型 CBDC 可能引發公民對隱私的疑慮和對商業銀行的影響，批發型 CBDC 的進展更快速，預計包括真實交易的實驗將在隔年推出。 去年11月 Bitcoin.com 報導稱，作為實施數位歐元計畫的一環，歐盟已在試行數位身份錢包協議，旨在利用簡單的文件應用程式，使錢包具有「最高級別的安全性和隱私性」，讓歐洲人控制哪些應用程式可以查看他們的數據。 同月月底，根據 CoinDesk 報導，歐洲議會成員也召開了與數位歐元相關的聽證會，該聽證會旨在幫助立法者在考慮立法提案時，更好地理解在支付效率相當高的司法管轄區創建CBDC的必要性、公民隱私是否會得到保護，以及數位歐元是否有可能被歐盟國家用來擴大控制範圍等更具爭議性的問題。然而受邀專家在幾乎所有問題上都存在分歧，比如數位歐元是否會取代現金、個人持有數位歐元是否有限額等。 不過歐洲央行顯然已對 CBDC 產生興趣，今年 1 月，為完善離線支付，歐洲央行公告將向可提供風險管理、資訊安全和用戶應用等一系列功能的供應商，提供一大筆現金，至多 12 億歐元（約 13 億美元），其中一半以上被指定用於線下支付服務。 而在本週官方消息指出，Layer1 隱私增強區塊鏈 Aleph Zero 宣佈加入總部位於德國法蘭克福的數位歐元協會，以協助塑造歐洲及其他地區數位貨幣的未來。 【本文作者張詠晴／幣特財經】

@ 0d6c8388:46488a33

One of my favorite essays of all time is [WrathOfGnon's "How to Build a Small Town in Texas."](https://wrathofgnon.substack.com/p/how-to-build-a-small-town-in-texas) He takes something that sounds so foreign, complicated, and unbounded, and breaks it down into a process that sounds so straightforward and obvious that it's almost astonishing that it doesn't happen all the time! I want there to exist a new operating system for mobile devices. I have very many "wishes" for this theoretical OS, and very few powers to grant those wishes. After hearing my thoughts on this subject you will in no way believe this is straightforward, obvious, or be surprised there is no such OS being built. And yet, I _wish such an essay would exist_, so this is my weak first attempt at such a thing. The tl;dr: we should build a "human scale" operating system. Less code, fewer bugs, more human agency, more human sympathy. That's how we win. ### 1. **Size and borders: “You can’t have a garden without fences.”** This ideal OS needs sufficient hardware support, sufficient application support, done with minimal code. What's the least amount of code required to run applications on a "modern" phone (5G, high-res touch display, GPU)? That's the operating system. As a point of motivation, [QNX fit a whole OS including a web browser on a floppy disk](https://winworldpc.com/product/qnx/144mb-demo) (1.44MB).  [MenuetOS / KolibriOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MenuetOS) is another more modern example of an OS that fits on a floppy.  ### 2. **Water, energy, food and connections: the needs hierarchy of towns.** An operating system needs to provide reliable, safe, and permissioned access to underlying hardware capabilities such as storage, memory, CPU, GPU, graphics, sound, and touch input. Simultaneously, it needs to expose this access in a way that simplifies the work of the application developer, or at the very least does not complicate it.  Casey Muratori in his ["The Thirty Million Line Problem" video essay](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZRE7HIO3vk) blames most of the complexity explosion of modern operating systems on the lack of standardization and over-reliance on software drivers in aspects of the system outside the well-defined CPU ISA (Instruction Set Architecture). He argues a well-defined ISA for using network and graphics hardware could simplify the OS back down to Linux's original 20k lines. In the 80s and early 90s many "apps" shipped with their own operating systems because it provided the best performance and because the underlying system was simple enough to make this possible. The great irony is that modern OS abstractions actually are often a source of additional complexity for the application dev, rather than simplification. The exact same GPU, when passed through an OS, can be exposed to the developer as DirectX 12, Vulkan, or Metal. This unnecessary complexity and layering cries out for a protocol. Casey points out that [experiments in removing layers](https://arrakis.cs.washington.edu/) has shown dramatic performance improvements.  I believe these performance improvements could perhaps make up for the lack of expensive, megacorp-driven optimizations, and bleeding-edge TSMC chips, that the complex operating systems currently enjoy. ### 3. **Materials and harmony.** One of the greatest failings of "Linux on the desktop" is that there are so many flavors of everything, there's no cohesive, single vision that can give users a common UX across apps or distros. Freedom to choose results in many choices.  That said, the modern web seems to have _some_ trend toward a sort of cohesion and shared UI language. And many native apps are built with web views or non-"native" toolkits anyways. So it's not worth stressing too much about this. I do believe, like React for the web, highly popular UI frameworks and toolkits will emerge (and have emerged) for popular efficient languages like Rust, Zig, C, and C++ that will allow developers to make apps out of common components so the wheel is not constantly reinvented. ### 4. **The problem of undeveloped and vacant lots.** No matter how good a new operating system is, it's nothing without apps. This was the death of Windows Phone, which in my opinion limited the expressivity of app developers to its detriment. This was also the death of Palm's WebOS, which likely bet on web technologies too early.  The modern web is easily powerful enough to serve as a stop-gap for many apps. But for the next operating system to be _better_ than its overly complex predecessors it will require amazing native apps that aren't available on existing systems. These better apps can potentially arise out of the operating system's simpler, more minimal abstractions. App developers will (hopefully) be attracted to a system where they can express their intent more directly, rather than fighting against the grain of highly opinionated frameworks like SwiftUI, JetPack Compose, and GTK. ### 5. **Who will live there?** A new operating system needs users. Early on, this new operating system will be lacking in many features and many killer apps. Who would choose such suffering? I can think of three primary candidates: 1. **Cypherpunks.** If you run GrapheneOS you experience a small subset of this suffering. If a new operating system offers one or two novel applications, you might be willing to adopt additional suffering to further live out your cypherpunk vision. 2. **Developers.** An operating system simple enough to "hack" on would be very exciting to a certain kind of developer. Think of the guy with a great Vim config or Emacs environment that he lovingly curates and codes for. 3. **People who hate change.** Ironically, modern devices, by economic necessity, continue to underserve a huge portion of the population that views a mobile device as a pragmatic tool and loathes the annual (often forced) churn to their user experience. A minimal OS can fight the sort of bitrot that makes unchange so hard for modern software. If it works, it can keep on working. ### 6. **Build to the edge of the lot** With a much smaller set of built-in OS SDKs, app developers will need to discover new protocols and methods for inter-app communication and harmony. This will be challenging and is not guaranteed to succeed. But the dream is for non-dev users to finally have access to abstractions as powerful as Unix pipes for their normie workflows. ### 7. Alright, I'm done copying headers from the town-in-Texas piece If you're curious and want some imagination fuel, the remaining headers are: 7. **Personality, neighborhoods, and character.** 8. **The Story, the founding Myth.** 9. **Build the least valuable lots first.** 10. **Public space.** 11. **A grand entrance.** 12. **How to live without cars.** 13. **To grid or not to grid.** ### 8. **The goals** Okay, so in summary here are some of the goals I believe a "next OS" should try to achieve, with some hints at methodology: * Freedom to use, freedom to change (through minimalism) * Performance (through minimalism, layer collapse) * Fight bitrot / change (through minimalism) * Good UX (hard. unlikely to emerge without good monetization) * All the apps (probably web tech / PWA / "enhanced" PWAs at the outset) ### 9. The hard parts Naturally, this is a very challenging project. Possibly the hardest part will be Casey's proposal for a broader SoC ISA, which might turn out to be a required foundation for the whole system. The other hard part is a browser, which would be necessary to get all these "free" web apps.  It's likely that WebKit can be ported to a sufficiently advanced system, but I don't know how much underlying complexity that "bakes in" to the OS at the outset. Serenity OS, a "hobby" OS for the desktop that's gotten to a truly impressive state, has its own browser Ladybird that covers a surprising amount of web technologies, but is still far from rivaling Chrome, Firefox, or WebKit. ### 10. The good news On a positive note, there are a ton of really cool projects that provide reasons to hope that a new mobile operating system is possible in our lifetime. Some of them might even be the building blocks that get us there. Others might serve as testing ground for these ideas before we can get the OS to bring them all together. - [x] A good money (Bitcoin) - [x] Decentralized protocols protocol (Nostr) - [x] Modern low-level languages (Rust, Zig) - [x] Binary portability / sandboxing (WASM) - [x] Portable modern graphics standard (WebGPU) - [x] Far-along complex desktop OS projects (Redox OS, Serenity OS) - [x] Cross-platform "native" GUI libraries (Iced, Egui, Dear Imgui) - [x] Cross-platform "web + native" frameworks (Tauri, Electron, Capacitor) - [x] Cross-platform windowing (Winit, SDL) - [x] Linux-based phones (Pinephone, Purism) - [x] Open source ISA (RISC-V) - [x] "Reinvent everything" communication device (Precursor / Betrusted / Xous OS) ### 11. One final optimism Here's an FPGA running Quake 1. What's bonkers is that this guy define his own ISA ([MRISC32](https://mrisc32.bitsnbites.eu/)), designed a soft CPU to run that ISA on an FPGA, modified a C compiler to target his ISA, [and compiled Quake 1 with that compiler](https://vimeo.com/901506667) (running at 30fps).  This is an obvious case of genius, but it's also inspirational to me that we have this many high-leverage tools at our disposal that a work of lone genius like this is even possible. We shouldn't limit our dreams to match only the methods that have been employed in the past. The methods of the past got us iPhones and Linux on the desktop. Billions of man hours got us our current tech stack. We, by definition, have no way of knowing how much work is necessary to build our next tech stack. That will be a process of discovery.

@ 2d5b6404:d4b500b0

1. アンフィールドでリバプールの試合を観戦する 2. イタリアでピザ食べたりエスプレッソ飲む 3. じゅりよんやラルフ、ewelina、マルティン、jefgとかに会いにヨーロッパ旅行行く 4. 長崎ぺんぎん水族館に行く 5. 九十九里で貝を食べる 6. 奄美大島でクジラの鳴き声を聞く 7. 蒸気機関車に乗る 8. 台湾旅行に行く 9. 韓国旅行に行く 10. 船で東京か大阪、四国に行く 11. Punkt. MP02を買い替える 12. ベトナムに住んでる友達に会いに行く 13. ホームベースとなる共同体を見つける。もしくは作る 14. 収入の10分の１を寄付する 15. ~~デスストランディングをクリアする~~ 16. ブレワイ、ティアキンをクリアする 17. べランピングする 18. こたつで友達とゲームしたりする

@ 06639a38:655f8f71

**Apple is going all-in with a fight against the EU by disabling all WebApp and PWA (progressive web app) features only in EU countries.** I also posted this on my blog: https://sebastix.nl/blog/apple-is-killing-webapps-pwas-power-play-against-the-eu/ Apple made a decision: > iOS, Safari, and the App Store are part of an integrated, end-to-end system that Apple has designed to help protect the safety, security, and privacy of our users, and provide a simple and intuitive user experience. We strive to earn users’ trust by promptly resolving issues with apps, purchases, or web browsing through App Review, AppleCare customer support, and more. > > **The DMA requires changes to this system that bring greater risks to users and developers. This includes new avenues for malware, fraud and scams, illicit and harmful content, and other privacy and security threats. These changes also compromise Apple’s ability to detect, prevent, and take action against malicious apps on iOS and to support users impacted by issues with apps downloaded outside of the App Store.** *Source: [https://developer.apple.com/support/dma-and-apps-in-the-eu#dev-qaa](https://developer.apple.com/support/dma-and-apps-in-the-eu#dev-qaa)* 💩 To me this is just a piece of bullshit 💩 Apple is not an open web advocate. They always opposed implementing open standards around [WebApps](https://www.w3.org/TR/appmanifest/) and PWA’s in their Webkit browser engine. They never made it easy to use a PWA on iOS devices. For example, they ignored the integration of push notifications for a long time, which was implemented very late in iOS 16.4 ([March 2023](https://webkit.org/blog/13878/web-push-for-web-apps-on-ios-and-ipados/)). Now within one year all this will be disabled in their next iOS update - version 17.4 - in EU countries! ### What is at stake is Apple’s revenue stream - their 15-30% (!) cut from any app purchase - from app developers in their walled garden called the App Store. From a business perspective it’s pretty obvious it’s worth a fight for them. As in most cases, just follow the money to get a better view on the incentives. WebApps and PWAs are providing a fantastic way to build beautiful apps in the open without the need of any permission. This toolset is getting more traction and adoption among developers and Apple know this is a threat for their business model. ## **Who’s the real victim?** I am one with many others. Others who love to build with open web technology in open systems. We are so-called open web advocates. Many of them are app developers who love to build sites and apps with the modern technology what is at hand. Developers who are preserving digital autonomy by choosing for open, independent and permissionless technologies. With BigTech out there, the fight for an open web is a never ending fight. I think you should always fight back, otherwise the web will be less open in the future. ## Let’s unite to fight back **Fill in this form if you’re affected in any means by this decision from Apple:** [https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfNgzepH4lwmWf2kaKC4EpKPdfi69jUHFM8kf4-TBsAyWU1BA/viewform](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfNgzepH4lwmWf2kaKC4EpKPdfi69jUHFM8kf4-TBsAyWU1BA/viewform) Initiated by the Open Web Advocacy group. > The [Open Web Advocacy](https://open-web-advocacy.org/) (OWA) is a group of software engineers from all over that world who provide regulators, legislators and policy makers the technical details to understand anti-competitive issues like Apple not allowing real third-party browsers on iOS so web apps cannot compete with native apps. *Source: https://modern-web-weekly.ghost.io/your-single-page-app-may-soon-be-a-polyfill* I’m sure there is more that can be done, so please let me know your suggestions!

@ 7b351277:001ba418

Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> test <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ ff3d87cc:7738cb1a

我第一本個人專書來了，加密法律這本書，是我在比特幣、加密貨幣領域鑽研、生存的唯一註解。 為什麼叫加密法律？ 我發現加密貨幣跟法律根本分不開，我是其中的見證、實踐者。本書第一章，你將看到比特幣的貨幣規則、加密貨幣的應用與新型資產的出現，以及對法律、制度的影響。 這本書，將帶著大家一起探索： ✅全球國監管全貌 收錄高達11個司法管轄區的加密貨幣法律，讓您在這本書可以全面理解加密貨幣在全球的監管現況。 ✅幣圈真相 比特幣到底是什麼，為什麼有人把他當成一生信仰?世界需要數位法幣嗎？台灣法制到底如何評價？ ✅同時也是真情告白，把幣圈黑暗面揭露，不藏私，公開我在這圈子的所見所聞。 比特幣及區塊鏈席捲全世界之際，我認為我有一個重大責任，必須寫下這本書— 我稱之為「加密法律」(Crypto Law) 這本書正式開始預購（👉 https://reurl.cc/OGR3ng ）過年完即發貨。 讓我們進入到加密世界。 #記得手刀購起來 👉 博客來：https://reurl.cc/97W1Wn —— 同時，我也要感謝本書的重要推薦人： 沒有你們的支持，不可能會有這本書誕生： ★Jimmy／ #酷可實驗室​ 創辦人 ★腦哥 Raizel／腦哥 Brain Bro創辦人 ★鄭光泰／幣託集團 BitoEX創辦人暨執行長 ★劉世偉／MaiCoin創辦人暨執行長 ★高培勛／奧果區塊顧問 Argoblocks創辦人、#尋找黑天鵝 共同作者 ★林繼恆／#恆業法律事務所 主持律師 ★王琍瑩／Next & Nexus 明日科技法律事務所主持律師 ★吳德威／矽谷Acorn Pacific Ventures 創投基金合夥人 ★范紀鍠 Paul／#Circle集團 工程副總裁暨台灣總經歷 - --推薦序--- ★徐珮菱 / 中信金融管理學院科技金融研究所所長 ★葛如鈞(寶博士)／中華民國(台灣)不分區立法委員

@ 18e3af1e:1d42e5df

Even though the cultural paradigm change of Value 4 Value is relatively new, ( we can't expect everyone in the world to jump in) the core idea of giving value in real time for content, can be pretty difficult to grasp for this generation; specially the less tech savvy individuals and older people. There is also the challenge for people that generate content of getting a consistent incentives that keep them creating; a constant stream of funds rather than tips if I may say. [Nostr Wallet Connect](https://nwc.dev/) and [Autozaps](https://www.zapplepay.com/autozap/npub1rr3678k7ajms2sht0cqqeawy86sdd5ahn6akfj8zex9ng82zuh0sz8nywd) by Zapple pay could play a HUGE role in fixing the inconsistency of V4V model in its pure form, by allowing the supporters to donate a fix amount set by them either daily, weekly or monthly. Look it as a mix between the V4V Model and the Legacy Subscription Model with Better and Faster Money. Do we need something like Autozaps now, while educate newer generations? Let me know your thoughts.

@ fa984bd7:58018f52

This is a new document I'm writing using https://collab-lemon.vercel.app/ which allows for collaborative editing of documents on nostr. The cool part is that this very simple tool, that I basically wrote in one hour last night, has some interesting primitives that can allow for a decentrailized wiki. In this flow I can invite editors to collaborate with me; they can suggest changes and I can see them typing in "real-time". When they suggest a change they essentially create a fork of my document, which I can then resign as my own, essentially accepting their changes. But the cool thing is that suggesting edits is not restricted to the people I authorize, anyone can do it. In my Whynotstr client these "unauthorized" edits are displayed separately and only if you choose to see them. But anyone can see them. Which means that anyone can fork my document and create their own competing document. ## Decentralized wiki From a "Wiki" perspective, this could mean that I write an entry for "Second World War"; the entry might be fully biased and I might leave out a bunch of nuance you, coming at it from a different perspective

@ bc4cdf40:640b4c19

Russian forces dealt a devastating blow to the Ukrainian military. On the morning of February 13, Russian strikes destroyed reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which came for the joint combat training to the village of Selidovo in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Several waves of Russian strikes hit the training ground, where about 1,500 Ukrainian servicemen could be deployed. There are still no official statements from any of the warring parties. The Ukrainian media remain silent, while Russian sources that are close to the military provide details of the attack. There were reportedly at least two waves of strikes. The Russian military learned the tactics which Ukrainian Nazis are using against civilians in the Donbass and other regions that Kiev lost. After the first attack hit the ranks of Ukrainian servicemen, leaving dozens killed and wounded, the second wave of strikes targeted military and security forces that came to the spot to evacuate the killed and wounded. The Russian military reportedly used several Iskander missiles with a cluster munition. Additionally Smerch MLRS, also with a cluster part, were used. The real number of casualties is unlikely to be officially revealed by the Kiev regime. According to some preliminary reports from the spot, the attack resulted in about 500 Ukrainian servicemen killed and about 700 others wounded. According, to other reports, there are dozens killed. It is clear that the number of casualties is likely to rise, as many soldiers have been seriously injured and their lives are at risk. Selidovo is a strategically important logistics hub of the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian units come there from Pavlograd and Pokrovsk before being sent to the frontlines. The military facilities in the village were used for accumulation of Ukrainian military reserves before they were sent to plug the holes in defense in the Donetsk direction. According to preliminary reports, a large part of the victims of today’s attack were servicemen of the notorious 3rd Assault Brigade “Azov”. The Ukrainian military command had previously declared that this unit would be send to reinforce Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Mariana Bezuglaya reportedly confirmed the attack and claimed that after the incident in Selidovo, mass inspections began in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from the General Staff to those responsible “on the ground.” Reports from Selidovo also confirm heavy losses to the Ukrainian Army. All the roads in the area were blockaded by security forces. There are many ambulances and trucks to take the corpses. The Security Service of Ukraine is reportedly raiding the village looking for spotters on the ground, those who leaked information about the accumulation of large Ukrainian forces on the training ground. This is far from the first Russian precision strikes on the accumulation of Ukrainian forces near the front. In November, 2023, the 128th Brigade of the AFU lost dozens killed and wounded after Iskander thwarted the awarding ceremony in the village of Dimitrovo in the Zaporozhie region.[LINK](https://southfront.press/kiev-counts-losses-after-russian-strike-on-failed-awarding-ceremony-videos-18/) However, this is the first such bloody attack on Ukrainian units in the rear after the new Ukrainian commander-in-chief Syrsky took office. Such an incident will definitely worsen his already weak reputation among the Ukrainian population, especially among the military. In an attempt to distract the population from another defeat, Kiev is expected to launch another bloody attack in the Russian rear, including on civilian targets.

@ bc4cdf40:640b4c19

Amid the ongoing offensive on the Donbass frontlines, the Russian military continues precision strikes, destroying Ukrainian military and infrastructure facilities in the eastern and southern Ukrainian regions. The last night was not an exception. On February 13, Kiev proudly declared that the almighty Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 16 out of 23 Russian kamikaze UAVs. The effective operation of Ukrainian air defense systems and mobile fire groups allegedly prevented any damage from the Russian strikes. However, Kiev’s claims were immediately refuted by reports from the city of Dnipro. Immediately after the Russian strikes, water and power supplies were cut off in the city. The local residents confirmed a series of loud explosions at the local TPP. The station provided electricity to numerous local industrial facilities used by the Ukrainian military. More Russian strikes were reported in the Ukrainian border town of Volchansk in the Kharkiv region, which is targeted by Russian drones and missiles on a regular basis. The Ukrainian military accumulated some reserves there in order to secure the border and launch sabotage attacks on Russian territory. On the morning of February 13, there was a massive Russian attack on the Ukrainian military training ground in Selidovo in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The strike reportedly hit the ranks of Ukrainian infantry, which came there for training and combat coordination before being sent to Avdiivka. According to preliminary reports, about 1,500 servicemen and various military warehouses came under attack. Heavy losses were inevitable, but the Ukrainian side is yet to officially declare the number of victims. The ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian strategic reserves allow the Russian troops to maintain the military initiative along the Donbass frontlines. While the assault groups are surrounding the Ukrainian grouping in Avdiivka, Russian forces are also improving their positions on the outskirts of the city and in the settlements nearby. As a result of several successful assaults, Russian forces are coming closer to surrounding the Ukrainian Zenith stronghold on the southern outskirts of Avdiivka. Russian forces advanced from both the west and north of the area but the Ukrainian command does not withdraw forces from the cauldron. In the Bakhmut region, Russian forces continue assaults towards Chasov Yar. They recently took control of the forest area north-west of Ivanovskoe. As a result of Russian successes, the village was encircled from the north. The Russian military also gained new victories in the south Donetsk direction. As a result of the recent attacks, Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defenses north and east of the village of Pobeda and gained a foothold on the outskirts. At the same time, Ukrainian forces lost control of a large part of Novomikhailovka. Despite the changes in the country’s military leadership, Ukrainian forces cannot stop the Russian offensive on all frontlines.

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

testing

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

testing sorry

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

lorem ipsum lorem ipsum

@ 46fcbe30:6bd8ce4d

Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> asdf asdf <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ 0f2955a6:2ad7991a

test test

@ d19fec54:1e6c5495

test test

@ d19fec54:1e6c5495

test

@ 46fcbe30:6bd8ce4d

Opinion about Nostr Implementation Possibility 'Git With Nostr' by nostr:npub... <!--HEADER END--> **test** <!--FOOTER START--> #NostrOpinion

@ 18e3af1e:1d42e5df

Why does your job SUCKS and what would you do with your time instead? Comment if you hate your current job, and why would you work on, if you didn't have to work to keep the bills at bay. As a plus, you can tell me about your dream job in Bitcoin. DON'T HOLD ANYTHING BACK

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

**In a time long ago, humanity led a humble existence, devoid of the luxuries we often take for granted today. It was an era characterized by simplicity, where true value was placed on genuine connections and respect for one another. I speak of a time when my grandparents were just children, residing in an old, quaint house in Ukraine.**  This house, a relic from the past, evokes memories of a bygone era. A time when life was modest, constructed with clay, wood, and adorned with a coat of whitewash. It's hard to fathom this way of life in today's fast-paced world, where we wake up to the comforts of central heating. Back then, the chill of the morning greeted the household, urging them to kindle warmth within the walls. Mornings meant venturing out to feed the geese and chickens, followed by a shared family breakfast at a humble table. Those times have slipped away into history, but the vivid recollections of my grandmother keep the memories alive. Upon seeing the house in Ukraine, I found myself transported back to my own childhood. A time when I sat with my grandmother, absorbing tales of her youth spent in Ukraine. She recounted stories of a time when her home was made of clay and wood, a dwelling of humble simplicity. Her anecdotes painted a picture of her father, bravely setting off to fight in the First World War, only to never return. Standing before this house, I was compelled to capture the moment through a photograph. It allowed me to momentarily travel back in time, immersing myself in the wonder of that era. The echoes of the past whispered tales of struggle, love, and resilience, reminding us of the beauty in life's simplicity. The house, a symbol of a simpler time, serves as a bridge between generations, allowing us to reflect on the strength and endurance of those who came before us. In cherishing our heritage and embracing the stories of our ancestors, we find a deeper connection to our roots and a profound appreciation for the comforts we enjoy today. It's a reminder that amidst our fast-paced modern lives, there's great wisdom in revisiting the past and understanding the simple, beautiful truths that once guided our existence. ## Photo information - Author: Ruben Storm - Created on: 16. September 2018 - Camera: Motorola Moto G5 Plus - Original: [[Photo on Flickr]](https://flic.kr/p/2hoS46t) | [Flickr profile](http://bit.ly/rst-flickr)

@ 765da722:17c600e6

In her book, *A Daily Dose of God's Word,* Ruby Ramsey wrote for Feb. 11 about how to improve one's spiritual health by walking. The New Testament uses the figure of walking for progress in spiritual matters. She gave seven ideas about walking with accompanying texts. 1. Walk in Christ, Colossians 2.6-7. 2. Walk in truth, 3 John 3-4. 3. Walk in good works, Ephesians 2.10. 4. Walk as Christ walked, 1 John 2.5-6. 5. Walk in love, Ephesians 5.1-2. 6. Walk in light, Ephesians 5.8. 7. Walk in wisdom, Ephesians 5.15-16. Then she ended with an eighth idea: Walk to please God, 1 Thessalonians 4.1-2. She ended by saying, “Walking like this is important for your spiritual health ─ and your very soul!”

@ d1d17471:5b15ed44

Nostrプロトコルを利用したアプリケーションの開発に役立つ資料をまとめていく場です。 ## プロトコル仕様書 ### nostr-protocol/nips https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips Nostrプロトコルの仕様を定めるNIPs(Nostr Implementation Possibilities)を取りまとめるリポジトリ。 また、issue・PRは新規NIPの提案や既存NIPの改善などに関する議論を交わす場となっている。 必須仕様はすべて **NIP-01** にまとまっているので、まずはNIP-01を読みましょう ### nips-ja https://github.com/nostr-jp/nips-ja NIPsの日本語訳プロジェクト。 ## プロトコルの解説 ### Web記事 - [Nostrプロトコル(damus)を触ってみた](https://qiita.com/gpsnmeajp/items/77eee9535fb1a092e286) - [Nostr の面白さをエンジニア目線で解説してみる](https://zenn.dev/mattn/articles/cf43423178d65c) - [Nostr Scrapbox](https://scrapbox.io/nostr/) ### 書籍 - [Hello, Nostr! 先住民が教えるNostrの歩き方](https://nip-book.nostr-jp.org/book/1/) - [learn-nostr-by-crafting](https://github.com/nostr-jp/learn-nostr-by-crafting): 本書内記事「手を動かして学ぶNostrプロトコル」の演習用リポジトリ - [Hello, Nostr! Yo Bluesky! 分散SNSの最前線](https://nip-book.nostr-jp.org/book/2/) - [learn-nostr-by-crafting-2](https://github.com/nostr-jp/learn-nostr-by-crafting-2): 本書内記事「演習！作ってみよう「日本語 TL のぞき窓」の演習用リポジトリ - [Software Design誌 連載「新時代の分散SNS Nostr」(2023年7月号~12月号)](https://gihyo.jp/magazine/SD/backnumber) - 第1回(7月号)〜第3回(9月号): Nostrプロトコルやアプリケーションの紹介 - 第4回(10月号): Nostrプロトコルの解説 - 第5回(11月号), 第6回(12月号): Nostrアプリケーションの実装解説 ### 動画 - [分散型SNSプロトコル nostrの解説](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vB905DhX9nQ) ## ライブラリ ### nostr-tools https://github.com/nbd-wtf/nostr-tools Nostrアプリケーションの開発で頻出する処理を提供するJS/TSライブラリ。 - 秘密鍵の生成・秘密鍵から公開鍵への変換 - イベントの署名・検証 - リレーとの通信(イベント購読・発行) - bech32形式識別子(`npub`, `nsec`, `nevent`などから始まる識別子、NIP-19)のencode/decode - ドメイン認証(NIP-05)の検証 - etc... ### NDK https://github.com/nostr-dev-kit/ndk Nostrプロトコルに対する、nostr-toolsよりも高いレイヤの抽象を提供するJS/TSライブラリ [ドキュメント](https://ndk.fyi/docs/) ### rx-nostr https://github.com/penpenpng/rx-nostr イベント購読をはじめとするNostrリレーとのやり取りを、RxのSubscriptionとして扱えるようにするJS/TSライブラリ。 [ドキュメント](https://penpenpng.github.io/rx-nostr/) ### nostr-fetch https://github.com/jiftechnify/nostr-fetch Nostrリレーから過去のイベントを取得する機能を提供するJS/TSライブラリ。最新のReplaceable Eventの取得にも便利。 (リレーから過去のイベントを正確に取得しようと思うと、落とし穴が多くて意外と大変。詳細は[こちら](https://speakerdeck.com/jiftechnify/nostrnorirekaralou-renakusubetenoibentowoqu-tutekuruji-shu)) ### rust-nostr https://github.com/rust-nostr/nostr Rust向けにNostrプロトコル全般の抽象を提供するライブラリ。機能ごとにクレートが分割されている。 - nostr: Nostrプロトコルの低レイヤの実装 - nostr-sdk: nostrクレートをベースとする、より高レイヤの抽象。クライアントの実装向け - nostr-database: Nostrイベントの永続化処理に関する抽象。 - etc また、さまざまなプログラミング言語向けのbindingが提供されている ### go-nostr https://github.com/nbd-wtf/go-nostr Nostrプロトコル全般の抽象を提供するGoライブラリ。 ### eventstore https://github.com/fiatjaf/eventstore Nostrイベントの永続化処理に関する抽象を提供するGoライブラリ。 ### khatru https://github.com/fiatjaf/khatru Go向けのNostrリレー実装用のフレームワーク。

@ babaf02c:049eee5d

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@ 0f22c06e:6194f8b6

On social media and in the Nostr space in particular, there’s been a lot of debate about the idea of supporting deletion and editing of notes. Some people think they’re vital features to have, others believe that more honest and healthy social media will come from getting rid of these features. The discussion about these features quickly turns to the feasibility of completely deleting something on a decentralized protocol. We quickly get to the “We can’t really delete anything from the internet, or a decentralized network.” argument. This crowds out how Delete and Edit can mimic elements of offline interactions, how they can be used as social signals. When it comes to issues of deletion and editing content, what matters more is if the creator can communicate their intentions around their content. Sure, on the internet, with decentralized protocols, there’s no way to be sure something’s deleted. It’s not like taking a piece of paper and burning it. Computers make copies of things all the time, computers don’t like deleting things. In particular, distributed systems tend to use a Kafka architecture with immutable logs, it’s just easier to keep everything around, as deleting and reindexing is hard. Even if the software could be made to delete something, there’s always screenshots, or even pictures of screens. We can’t provably make something disappear. What we need to do in our software is clearly express intention. A delete is actually a kind of retraction. “I no longer want to associate myself with this content, please stop showing it to people as part of what I’ve published, stop highlighting it, stop sharing it.” Even if a relay or other server keeps a copy, and keeps sharing it, being able to clearly state “hello world, this thing I said, was a mistake, please get rid of it.” Just giving users the chance to say “I deleted this” is a way of showing intention. It’s also a way of signaling that feedback has been heard. Perhaps the post was factually incorrect or perhaps it was mean and the person wants to remove what they said. In an IRL conversation, for either of these scenarios there is some dialogue where the creator of the content is learning something and taking action based on what they’ve learned. Without delete or edit, there is no option to signal to the rest of the community that you have learned something because of how the content is structured today. On most platforms a reply or response stating one’s learning will be lost often in a deluge of replies on the original post and subsequent posts are often not seen especially when the original goes viral. By providing tools like delete and edit we give people a chance to signal that they have heard the feedback and taken action. The Nostr Protocol supports delete and expiring notes. It was one of the reasons we switched from secure scuttlebutt to build on Nostr. Our nos.social app offers delete and while we know that not all relays will honor this, we believe it’s important to provide social signaling tools as a means of making the internet more humane. We believe that the power to learn from each other is more important than the need to police through moral outrage which is how the current platforms and even some Nostr clients work today. It’s important that we don’t say Nostr doesn’t support delete. Not all apps need to support requesting a delete, some might want to call it a retraction. It is important that users know there is no way to enforce a delete and not all relays may honor their request. Edit is similar, although not as widely supported as delete. It’s a creator making a clear statement that they’ve created a new version of their content. Maybe it’s a spelling error, or a new version of the content, or maybe they’re changing it altogether. Freedom online means freedom to retract a statement, freedom to update a statement, freedom to edit your own content. By building on these freedoms, we’ll make Nostr a space where people feel empowered and in control of their own media.

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

Remember my post from a couple of days ago? I believe it was two days ago when I shared my adventure titled “Unplugged in Paradise: A Day at the Beach Hotel Office”. In that post, I found myself in a stunning location, attempting to work, but alas, I couldn't connect to the Wi-Fi. I had to rely on my phone data to stay connected. Well, guess where I am today? Yes, I'm back at the same place because I couldn't resist the breathtaking view and the refreshing ocean breeze. Especially compared to the scorching heat at my rented home lately. So, I decided to return today and soak up this fantastic view while writing a series of blog posts - call it a blogging marathon if you will.  Getting here was a breeze; I hopped on a TukTuk and only paid 150 Kes this time, a significant improvement from the 300 Kes I shelled out previously. It's safe to say that today's price felt more reasonable. I'm hoping for a productive day in this exquisite location.  Lately, I've been eagerly awaiting a package I ordered from Germany: a brand-new razor. My old one was made of plastic, and this year, I made a personal commitment to reduce my carbon footprint and eliminate plastic from my life in favor of more sustainable choices. Conveniently, my old razor fell apart, though not in an ideal location. Dealing with customs has been a bit of a hassle, even though Amazon covered all the import fees and charged my card. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it will arrive this weekend or early next week. Now, you might be wondering, why did I order a razor from Europe? Well, the issue is that you can find expensive blades and the old-style cheap ones here, but you can't find a quality razor. Every time you try to buy one, they have to order it from Europe, and you have to pay upfront. You never really know what you'll get, except that it will be pricey and likely low quality. So, I decided to take matters into my own hands and ordered it from Amazon, which offers worldwide express shipping for a reasonable 23 euros.  For now, I'll wrap up this post and get back to writing and taking photos of this beautiful place.  Fast forward to late evening, and I'm back at my accommodation. This afternoon was fairly low-key; I tied up some loose ends, packed my laptop into my bag, and headed to the pool area. I lounged around for a bit, snapped some photos, and took a leisurely stroll. Then, I decided it was time for a refreshing dip in the pool. I'd called ahead earlier to check if it was okay for me to spend the day working here, and they assured me that their Wi-Fi was top-notch and that I could use the pool as well. Excited, I waded into the pool and explored the area. There was even a bar by the poolside, allowing guests to enjoy a drink while cooling off. However, to reach the bar, you had to be a swimmer, as the water was about 2 meters deep on the way there. At the bar, it was just deep enough to stand comfortably.  But my plans took an unexpected turn when a man approached me before I could reach the bar. He informed me that there was a fee for using the pool, though he didn't specify the amount. After a few minutes, he returned with a bill, demanding 1000 Kes, roughly 7 euros. I was taken aback and insisted on a comprehensive bill for everything I'd consumed. He took my money, left for a while, and when he finally returned, he presented a bill, but it didn't include the pool charge. He had essentially rewrote and split the bill into two, separating the drinks from the pool fee. I was upset by this and sought someone to resolve the issue. I asked for a separate receipt for the pool fee, and after some apologies, he finally handed it over.  Feeling frustrated, I decided to take a stroll along the pristine white beach back to my place. It was a beautiful walk, even though I had to navigate some sharp rocks due to the rising tide. I couldn't help but wonder why these rocks were always so sharp; it's a mystery I can't explain. Despite the business mishap at the pool, the walk was absolutely enchanting. However, if you were to ask me whether I'd turn this place into my office again, the answer is no. It's a stunning spot, no doubt, but the way they conduct business isn't to my liking. Sadly, it's a common practice in Kenya. Nevertheless, let's keep moving and explore more beautiful places. There are plenty out there waiting to be discovered.         

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

In today's adventure, I decided to switch up my work setting and take you along for the ride as I settled into a beach hotel, a truly delightful one at that, promising excellent wifi for a productive workday. I'm a proud minimalist, equipped with nothing more than my trusty Osprey Nebula 32L backpack, housing all my essentials, weighing in at less than 10 kg - clothes, shoes, electronics, toothbrush, toothpaste, and soap neatly stowed away.  As I prepared for my excursion, I emptied my backpack, leaving only the electronics inside. The first leg of my journey involved catching a tuktuk to the beach hotel, where I was greeted by a friendly security guard who welcomed me with a warm "caribou" - a precursor to the enchanted world that awaited beyond the imposing iron gate.  Following the security guard's directions, I wandered along a path lined with quaint cottages available for rent until I reached a breathtaking scene: a pool, a bar, and a restaurant all nestled within a lush, jungle-like resort. I chose the pavilion as my workspace for the day, offering a panoramic view of the resort on one side and a stunning vista of the beach with its powdery white sands on the other.  However, my plans hit a snag when I discovered that the promised wifi wasn't functional in the pavilion. Attempts to relocate to the restaurant and poolside in search of a stable connection proved futile, eventually forcing me to rely on my mobile data to salvage a couple of hours of work amidst picturesque surroundings.  In true African fashion, the assurance of good wifi often falls short of reality, leading to a day filled with beautiful scenery but a less-than-productive workday. Nonetheless, I made the most of it, even indulging in a delectable pizza during my quest for a functioning wifi connection.  As the day wound down, I packed up my laptop and headed back to my temporary abode. In hindsight, it wasn't the most productive workday, but it was undeniably a picturesque and enchanting mobile home-office experience. Take a peek at the photos to capture a glimpse of this unique workspace.              *Follow me on Nostr*

@ 11be7dbc:82a5f8e9

In 2022, Cyberyen emerged seemingly out of thin air, presenting a potent response to the entrenched corruption within the cryptocurrency landscape. Its ideology has offered a simple yet powerful antidote, founded on the core principles of cypherpunk ideology—privacy, decentralization, and liberation from institutional control. Cyberyen rose as a rallying call against prevailing financial dominion. This nascent ideology encapsulates a spirit of rebellion, aspiring to democratize finance and cultivate a community-centric digital economy. Today, in its embryonic stage, Cyberyen epitomizes a digital social contract, offering a liberated space where collaboration, innovation, and communal interaction flourished, unshackled from the constraints imposed by traditional financial frameworks. Due to the fact that the original purity of cypherpunk's intentions—to stand as a symbolic rebellion against a corrupt system—gradually succumbed to the speculative frenzy dominating the financial world. Rather than upholding the foundational principles of a liberated digital society, cryptocurrency became synonymous with speculative bubbles, market frenzy, and the whims of investor sentiment. Yet, amidst this moral decay, the idea of Cyberyen metamorphoses into a transformative force. Within the shadows of speculation lies the potential for the resurgence of community, innovation, and decentralization, aspiring to reclaim its intrinsic position in the realm of digital currencies. It evolves beyond a mere facilitator of transactions to shape a unique environment transcending conventional boundaries of geography, socio-economics, and governance. Acknowledging Cyberyen's early stage invites envisioning it not merely as a digital coin but as a sovereign state—an intangible expanse where individual interactions shape its foundation. Much akin to our integration into society at birth, Cyberyen welcomes participants into a shared realm where interactions, engagements, and collaborations weave the fabric of a burgeoning digital society. Within this ethereal space, physical geography dissolves, allowing individuals globally to converge and coexist within the Cyberyen ecosystem. At its core, Cyberyen functions as a decentralized, borderless platform, accessible to anyone with an internet connection. Serving as an overlay to societal and economic structures, it seamlessly integrates into participants' lives, transcending geographical limitations. This integration fosters an environment conducive to self-discovery, expression, and connectivity, reminiscent of familial, communal, and national landscapes shaping our physical realm identities. Privacy and anonymity stand as pillars within this digital enclave, empowering users to engage without the necessity of divulging personal information. Such anonymity liberates individuals from societal judgments prevalent in the physical world, fostering authentic expression and interaction devoid of prejudice or discrimination. Moreover, Cyberyen champions universal interaction, eradicating the barriers posed by country-specific regulations, currencies, or social delineations. This democratization creates a level playing field for all participants, irrespective of background or location. Its inherent inclusivity ensures that opportunities and resources are not bound by conventional societal frameworks but are accessible to individuals irrespective of their socio-economic status or geographic coordinates. Cyberyen's integration extends beyond financial transactions, envisioning usability in decentralized marketplaces, social platforms, cultural spheres, and multifaceted activities, fundamentally reshaping societal structures. Distinct from activist networks advocating complete anonymity and a dark market, Cyberyen does not aim to dismantle government institutions. Instead, it aspires to weave an independent, invisible environment—a transparent digital matrix offering an alternative mode of interaction and settlement between individuals. The blockchain underlying Cyberyen serves as the scaffolding for an independent people’s economy, embodying a promise beyond financial transactions—a platform for creating opportunities parallel to one's real-life endeavors. Through Cyberyen integration, individuals forge a secondary environment for business activity, fostering a new cultural layer detached from geographical confines. At the heart of Cyberyen's evolution lies the fortification of its foundation—the strength of its network. The amalgamation of mining power and nodes forms the bedrock upon which the ecosystem thrives. Beyond technical robustness, the cultivation of a distinctive culture becomes imperative—an underground, creative ethos fostering innovation, inclusivity, and cultural diversity within the Cyberyen community. Looking deeper, Cyberyen holds the promise of catalyzing social interaction, fostering economic growth, and nurturing a globally connected, culturally diverse society. It surpasses the role of a mere financial tool; rather, it stands as an incubator nurturing cultural expression and societal amalgamation. Cyberyen's narrative is a borderless router processing connections of collaboration, innovation, and inclusive progress—a profound testament to technology's capacity in crafting an autonomous social fabric. Within this realm, individuals are empowered to discover their voice, collaborate uninhibitedly, and collectively forge a novel cultural paradigm. In conclusion, Cyberyen's essence transcends conventional currency, aspiring to create an enclave fostering an ecosystem where individuals interact, create, and thrive. Its potential lies in a united community constructing a vibrant, inclusive, and innovative digital society—a space of connectivity, creativity, and collective evolution in the digital age. Stay with us... C¥kuza

@ d34e832d:383f78d0

# Bitcoin Halving: Gaining an Understanding of its Significance  For a long time, I've operated using the opportunity of bitcoin, but applied little time to understand its halving. This periodic event, occurring approximately every four years, is more than just a routine adjustment in the Bitcoin ecosystem; it represents a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin's economic model and its impact on the supply side and demand dynamics. This is just a private note, I am making to review m understanding of this concept to my small audience and myself. ## The Halving Event  At the heart of the Bitcoin halving lies a simple yet profound mechanism. As stated by Satoshi Nakamoto in the original Bitcoin whitepaper, the total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins. To ensure scarcity and prevent inflation, the rate at which new bitcoins are created must decrease over time. This is where the halving comes into play. > "The halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs approximately every four years, where the block subsidy, which is the amount of new bitcoin awarded to miners for validating transactions, is cut in half." This reduction in the block subsidy serves as a built-in mechanism to control the issuance of new bitcoins, thereby ensuring a gradual and predictable approach to reaching the maximum supply limit of 21 million coins. ## Implications for the Market The impact of the Bitcoin halving extends far beyond its immediate effects on miners' rewards. It has profound implications for the broader cryptocurrency market and its participants. > "This reduction in the block subsidy has implications for the supply of new bitcoin entering the market, which can impact its price and overall market dynamics." With each halving, the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation decreases, leading to a decrease in the rate of inflation. This deflationary aspect of Bitcoin is often cited as one of its key distinguishing features compared to traditional fiat currencies. ## Market Sentiment and Price Volatility One of the most intriguing aspects of the Bitcoin halving is its impact on market sentiment and price volatility. Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with periods of heightened speculation and price volatility. > "Investors closely monitor the halving events, anticipating their potential impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory." While some view the halving as a bullish catalyst, others are of the consideration that no real event would occur during the next halving. ## This Halving Is A Pivotal Moment Of Where All Bitcoiners Stand The Bitcoin halving is a pivotal event that underscores the underlying principles of scarcity and decentralization within the Bitcoin ecosystem. By reducing the rate of new bitcoin issuance, the halving plays a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin's monetary policy and economic trajectory. As investors and enthusiasts alike await the next halving event, the significance of this recurring phenomenon cannot be overstated. # Impact of Bitcoin Halving: Potential Scenarios While some anticipate significant bullish movements following the halving, others argue that it may not necessarily lead to major price shifts. Lets try to reconcile these contrasting scenarios and explore potential outcomes. ## Scenario 1: No Major Price Movements In this scenario, the Bitcoin halving occurs without triggering significant price movements. Proponents of this view argue that the halving event is already priced into the market well in advance, as investors and traders anticipate the reduction in the block reward. > "The efficient market hypothesis suggests that all available information, including future events like the halving, is already reflected in the current price of Bitcoin." According to this perspective, any potential bullish sentiment leading up to the halving may already be factored into the market price, resulting in limited price volatility during and after the event. ## Scenario 2: Big Bullish Catalysts Contrary to the first scenario, proponents of this view anticipate major bullish movements driven by the Bitcoin halving. They argue that historical data and market trends suggest a pattern of significant price appreciation following previous halving events. > "Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with periods of heightened speculation, increased demand, and subsequent price surges." According to this perspective, the inherent scarcity of Bitcoin, coupled with a reduction in the rate of new coin issuance, creates a supply-demand imbalance that favors price appreciation. As investors perceive Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value, the halving serves as a reaffirmation of its scarcity and long-term value proposition. ## Potential Positive Outcomes Regardless of whether the Bitcoin halving leads to major price movements or not, there are potential positive outcomes for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. 1. **Increased Awareness and Adoption**: The spotlight on Bitcoin during halving events often leads to increased media coverage and public awareness, attracting new investors and users to the ecosystem. 2. **Technological Innovations**: The anticipation of the halving encourages developers and entrepreneurs to explore innovative solutions and applications built on top of the Bitcoin protocol, driving technological advancements in the space. 3. **Long-Term Value Proposition**: Regardless of short-term price fluctuations, the fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin as a decentralized, censorship-resistant, and deflationary digital asset remains intact, attracting long-term investors seeking to preserve wealth and hedge against economic uncertainty. ## The Future Cannot Be Truly Predicted In conclusion, the potential outcomes of the Bitcoin halving are subject to debate and speculation within the Bitcoin community. While some anticipate major price movements, others remain skeptical of its immediate impact on the market. However, beyond short-term price fluctuations, the halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's scarcity and value proposition, reinforcing its position as a revolutionary financial asset with the potential to reshape the global economy. For further exploration of Bitcoin halving and its implications, consider diving into resources such as: - [Bitcoin Halving Explained](https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information.html) - [The Economics of Bitcoin Mining, or Bitcoin in the Presence of Adversaries](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/) - [Understanding Bitcoin's Halving and Its Impact](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-halving.asp)

@ dec2e28f:01746c77

* 數以百萬計的非洲人面臨兩個阻礙他們進步的問題：6億人缺乏電力，而幾乎所有非洲大陸的14億人缺乏高品質的貨幣。與美國、北歐或日本相比，那裡幾乎所有人都能獲得穩定、負擔得起的電力，以及像美元、歐元或日元這樣廣泛接受的儲備貨幣。 * 非洲人遭受著停電和通貨膨脹的折磨時間越長，他們就越難脫身，儘管他們盡了最大努力。更糟糕的是，傳統的能源和金融提供商沒有動機解決這個問題，這意味著通貨貶值、債務陷阱和電網關閉仍然存在。 * 大多數人可能會看到這種情況，並得出結論，下一個非洲世紀將非常困難。儘管非洲擁有強大的河流、烈日、強風和地熱等豐富的能源資源，但非洲大陸仍然無法充分利用這些自然資源來推動其經濟增長。一條大河可能流經其中，但該地區的人類發展卻仍然痛苦地依賴於慈善或昂貴的外國借貸。直到現在。 * 在一些非洲企業家、教育工作者和活動家看來，有一個東西出現了，它有可能徹底改變非洲迅速增長人口的可靠電力和高品質貨幣——這是進步的基石。信不信由你，那個東西就是比特幣。 ### 挖礦在木蘭傑山(Mt. Mulanje)陰影下 * 在馬拉維南部，距離布蘭太爾市(Blantyre)東南方僅一小時多的車程，沿著風景優美的土路，耸立著木蘭傑山(Mt. Mulanje)。這座壯麗的3000米高山是南非其中一座最高峰，其懸崖峭壁和峽谷群橫跨著與莫桑比克的邊界。令人驚嘆的景色媲美優勝美地，但由於其偏遠的位置，當地嚮導表示一年中有許多天幾乎沒有遊客。   * 在18世紀和19世紀，該地區受到歐洲和阿拉伯奴隸貿易的重創。葡萄牙、阿曼、英國和其他帝國從莫桑比克、馬拉維和周邊地區擄走了成[千上萬的奴隸](https://www.mozambique.co.za/About_Mozambique-travel/mozambique-info.html)，通過象津巴布魯等地區港口運送到美洲和中東強迫勞動。生還率最好的也只有五分之一。奴隸航路直接穿越了木蘭傑山，這是一個明顯的標誌。如今，山麓地區佈滿了茂密的森林，茶園不斷擴展，農民種植著鳳梨、香蕉和玉米。這個生態系統是世界寶藏，擁有特有的植物和動物，包括史前銀杏、馬拉維濒危的國樹木蘭傑雪松，以及一些地球上最稀有的昆蟲和爬行動物。 * 不幸的是，長久以來的剝削以不同形式繼續存在。伐木和礦業威脅著當地環境，沒有工業基礎設施，居民被孤立起來，不得不自求生存。 * 這裡的人口可能擁有許多自然資源，但現代進步之母卻與他們無緣。僅有大約15%的馬拉維人——以及僅有大約5%的居住在該國鄉村地區的人——可以使用電力。在木蘭傑山麓的一個小村莊邦多（Bondo），一些居民於2016年夜晚首次獲得照明。根據該鎮的長老酋長的說法，“在那之前”，這裡只有黑暗。 * 電力不足給不斷增長的人口帶來了幾個問題。居民無法使用爐灶，只能砍伐山區的樹木和灌木來生火或製作木炭燒煮食物。夜間，孩子們在危險的煤油燈光下學習，或根本不學習。砍伐樹木[破壞了森林](https://www.oneearth.org/ecoregions/mulanje-montane-forest-grassland/)，火災和燈光造成有害的室內空氣污染。外國捐助者——包括蘇格蘭政府——於2008年為邦多建造了一座小型水力發電廠，在長達八年的施工後，該發電廠開始為部分當地居民提供電力。 * 在此期間，卡爾·布魯索（Carl Bruessow）——一位熱衷於徒步旅行並擔任木蘭傑山保護信託基金會主席——幫助成立了木蘭傑電力發電機構（Mega），這是馬拉維第一家私營微型水力發電供應商。 Mega也是一家社會企業，其使命是為邦多的市民提供電力。像蘇格蘭人在木蘭傑山河岸上資助的小型水力方案一樣，從該方案獲得的電力成本非常高，接近每千瓦時90美分。作為對比，美國或歐洲的住宅電力每千瓦時價格為10美分至20美分。非洲的電力供應通常在20美分至40美分之間。例如，在肯尼亞，電力售價為27美分。為了回饋當地社區，卡爾大幅補貼了邦多居民支付給Mega的每千瓦時不到20美分的電費。 * 卡爾支付了差額，但這樣的操作是不可持續的。到目前為止，已有超過2000個家庭接入了Mega電網，但另外3000個家庭仍在等待連接。電力站生產的電力已經超過了5000個家庭的需求，但大部分電力無法銷售，因為Mega沒有資金購買設備將新家庭接入電網。而且，也沒有資本考慮擴展，以免在夏季乾旱期間水力發電減少。 * 在一些地方，工業作業可能會購買農村的多餘電力。但在邦多這樣的地方，幾乎沒有許多耗電量大的企業。多餘的電力無法銷售，因此電力站建造了機器，專門用來吸收未使用的電力。這在下雨時尤其可悲，或在夜間低需求時，電站不得不消散絕大多數珍貴的電力，完全浪費。 * 兩年前，企業家埃里克·赫斯曼（Erik Hersman）、珍妮特·邁吉（Janet Maingi）和菲利普·沃爾頓（Philip Walton）創立了[Gridless](https://gridlesscompute.com/)，這是一家專注於非洲離網比特幣挖掘的新公司。這三人曾在Ushahidi、BRCK和iHub等公司工作，擅長建造硬件、編寫軟件，以及擴展通信和互聯網基礎設施，使他們成為該任務的合適人選。他們最初的一次現場訪問就是在邦多，他們與卡爾會面，並檢查了邦多的發電站。在2023年初，一個Gridless比特幣數據中心被安裝並啟動，現在，卡爾和Mega有了新的資金來源。去年十二月，我有機會前往邦多，以弄清楚一切是如何運作的。   * 如今，邦多發電站產生的所有多餘電力都由Gridless的礦工即時售給比特幣網絡，卡爾可以從中獲得30%的收入。這筆收入直接轉到Mega的錢包，以比特幣形式存入。新資本使Mega能夠將更多客戶連接到電力，降低成本，擴大業務，最終將邦多地區的所有人都接入電力。Mega、社區和Gridless都受益。最深刻的部分是？不需要任何援助或政府補貼。 * 比特幣常常被批評為能源浪費。但在邦多，就像世界上許多其他地方一樣，情況變得非常明顯，如果你不挖掘比特幣，你就在浪費能源。曾經是陷阱的地方現在是一個機遇。比特幣礦工可以被看作是蜣螂，它們將沒有人想要的廢能源收集起來，轉化為有價值的東西。 * 隨著Mega越來越多地接入客戶，Gridless可能會關閉一些挖掘機器，並遷移到其他地方，或者將挖掘機搬到同一地區的新發電站，這些發電站正在等待連接客戶。如果比特幣網絡支付X，客戶就需要支付X+1，因此礦工最終會開始價格上漲。但即使在當地需求在下午5點接近可用容量的情況下，挖掘仍然可以賺錢，因為夜間需求很少，河流永不停歇。 * 在馬拉維的其他地方，國家電網故障。截至2023年12月，接入國家電網的人每天遭受6至8小時的[“負載分配”](https://loadshedding.eskom.co.za/LoadShedding/Description)，電力公司會切斷大片人口的電力供應。但在邦多，沒有負載分配。比特幣礦工平衡了小型電網。如果水力不足，Gridless的自動軟件會關閉ASIC。如果有太多水力來自例如定期襲擊該地區的熱帶氣旋之一，Gridless的ASIC運作會吸收它。令人驚訝的是，在小小的邦多，電力運行更穩定，比大城市更一致。 * 在我訪問邦多的某個晚上，當夕陽逐漸消失時，卡爾要求我停下來看看我們周圍的山丘：山腳下的燈光都開始亮起。這是一幅強大的景象，令人震驚的是，比特幣正在幫助實現這一切，將浪費的能源轉化為人類進步。 * 這種模式擴展的潛力令人震驚。考慮到：非洲的電力發電通常是按照未來的規劃，例如，以30年的時間窗口進行。因此，建造的場地是為未來的容量而設計的，而不是為了今天的容量。因此，當像邦多這樣的場地啟動時，需要一段時間才能從0%提高到20%的容量。在這一點上，在比特幣之前，電力公司可能不得不對出售的電力收取5倍的價格，才能使自己達到平衡。 * 這對客戶來說是災難性的，特別是像邦多這樣的地方，那裡的人擁有整個非洲最小的可支配收入之一。但是有了比特幣，網絡現在購買所有可用的多餘電力，即使只有一小部分電力站的容量被住宅或工業用戶購買，也能降低成本。 * 我們被告知要相信進步總是在發生，純粹的人類創新會使事情變得更好更便宜。但在馬拉維，考慮到當地克瓦查貨幣的崩潰，以及對基礎設施投資的缺乏激勵，電力網的擴展不僅停滯不前，而且變得禁止。 * 比特幣通過兩種方式解決了這個問題：直接向發電者提供高質量的點對點貨幣，並允許他們全天候使用所有的容量，降低了客戶的價格，提高了他們的利潤。   * 根據埃里克的說法，非洲鄉村大約有95%的小型發電都是通過優惠融資進行的，而通過慈善籌集資金可能需要五到七年的時間。這個過程依賴於利他主義，補助金是別人在「做正確的事情」。 * 例如，邦多的微水電站是由外國捐助者支付的，他們在啟動項目方面可能非常有幫助，但通常不會為持續運營成本或擴展支付費用。他們也沒有太多的利益關係，對於讓人們在八年內上線的時間表很滿意。有了比特幣，激勵就不同了。捐助者離開了，合資投資者進來了，他們非常有興趣盡快啟動並運行電力。 * 展望未來，在邦多還有很多工作要做。卡爾和Mega目前正在決定如何利用比特幣網絡的新收入來為數百個新家庭提供電力。他們還在考慮擴建一個新的、更大的發電站，以解決一年中兩個最幹燥月份的電力輸出問題。 * 當然，這將與Gridless合作建造，以便即使需要一段時間來連接新家庭和企業，它也可以在第一天立即產生收入。 * 當我們會見邦多的社區領袖和居民電力委員會的成員時，電力的關鍵重要性得到了強調。他們列出了該鎮現在享受到的所有新好處：他們過去不得不步行20公里才能獲得像碾玉米機、電視、冰箱、充電、或讓孩子晚上學習、或醫療保健等東西，但現在不需要了。 * 我們會議中的婦女甚至指出了一件有趣的事情：以前，村莊的男人晚上會去鎮上看足球，把家人留在家裡。但今天，他們不離開，他們只是在家裡看，陪伴著妻子和孩子。LED燈取代了煤油燈，降低了火災風險和致命的室內空氣污染。繼續接受更高級別教育的孩子比例大幅增加。生活提升的清單不勝枚舉。 * 到這時，你可能會說，好吧，聽起來不錯，但為什麼不用邦多河流發電的電力做其他事情呢？菲利普解釋說，在這樣一個擁有廉價能源但與基礎設施隔離的地方，沒有其他業務能夠在這裡運行得更好。 * 舉例來說，人工智慧(AI)機房的成本在很大程度上並不受電力的影響：一個芯片(GPU)可能要花費3萬美元並使用1200瓦特。相比之下，比特幣挖掘中，電力佔成本的很大一部分，一個芯片(ASIC)可能價格為1200美元並使用3500瓦特。因此，在邦多建造人工智能數據中心在經濟上是毫無意義的，更不用說連接性、帶寬和延遲問題了。 * 此外，人工智能(AI)過程不能像比特幣挖掘那樣簡單地打開和關閉，否則會對服務本身造成一定程度的損害，因此，以目前的形式，人工智能計算不能成為電網平衡器。但比特幣可以：當微型電網需要將電力部署到其他地方時，礦工可以輕鬆關閉。最後，即使Mega試圖為邦多的人工智能公司提供服務，他們該如何支付呢？這將是同樣的外匯問題、費用問題，以及應對崩潰的本地貨幣。有了比特幣，他們可以得到全球接受的、可以全天候出售的薩托希。 * 比特幣挖掘的另一個潛在外部性是熱量。當我們把手放在邦多Gridless設施背面的空氣排放口上時，感到了一股灼熱的氣流。礦工的數量越多，產生的熱量也就越多。礦工本質上是一種空間加熱器，而且效率驚人。 * 一部新的[Reason紀錄片](https://reason.com/video/2023/11/14/the-future-of-energy-brooklyns-bitcoin-heated-bathhouse/)有助於解釋這一點，它聚焦於布魯克林的一家浴室，該業主現在每個月支付的電費要比以前使用更傳統的加熱設備來加熱溫泉水時少。任何不是挖掘比特幣的加熱操作可能都在浪費能源。 * 在邦多以北1000英里的剛果民主共和國壯麗的維倫加國家公園，護林員過去三年一直在利用被困的水力發電挖掘比特幣，為生物保護區和附近五百萬居民提供重要收入。 * 今年三月，維倫加的礦工產生的熱量將被利用來烘乾可可豆。傳統上，這是在太陽下曬乾豆子，但豆子容易受天氣影響，易被動物吃掉或偷走。利用礦工的熱風烘乾豆子將大大加快這一過程，而且成本增加很小。 * 公園護林員只需要花費20萬美元就買到了可以加工可可並賺取比特幣的ASIC。未來，如果他們的競爭對手加工可可卻不挖掘比特幣，他們將在能源利用上浪費，而且競爭力會降低。  * 根據環保主義者和比特幣倡導者特洛伊·克羅斯(Tony Cross) 的說法，在最後一次的比特幣價格周期中，達到頂峰的是在2021年底，挖掘是由對廉價資本的訪問驅動的，而不是廉價電力。例如：華爾街借錢便宜地購買比特幣挖掘公司的股票。 * 但在下一個周期中，他說，將由對廉價電力的訪問驅動。這可能會對非洲有利。他甚至說，也許會有一些地方，比如在布蘭太雷，挖掘的成本超過了挖掘收益，但是從過剩熱量中節省的業務成本（銷售巧克力）使整個事情變得有利可圖。實際上，他說，應該從以下角度思考：挖掘的利潤加上熱量的利潤減去挖掘的成本。任何地方都存在低品質電熱的情況，都有未實現的比特幣利潤。 * 在邦多，Mega最初的想法是利用多餘的熱量製作乾鳳梨零食。但在我們的訪問中，一個新的想法被提出：礦山本身位於一個茶園。茶葉一旦採摘，需要在幾個小時內乾燥，這是用加熱器完成的，需要大量電力。為什麼不使用ASICs來乾燥茶葉呢？運營商現在正在考慮這個問題。 * 在電力通常非常稀缺的地方，想像並考慮如何利用多餘的電力是一種奢侈，但現在邦多有了一種技術，可以讓人們利用曾經只是被浪費掉的價值。 ### 克瓦查(Kwacha)的崩潰 * 在2023年11月的一個星期三早晨，馬拉維的2000萬公民醒來時，發現他們的貨幣貶值了44%。政府和國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）主張這一舉措將促進出口，穩定經濟，但對於普通人來說，他們感受到的只是購買力的立即下降。許多商家簡單地關閉了一天，因為員工需要時間重新製作從加油站到雜貨店到處使用的價格標簽。 * 這不像在阿根廷一樣，大多數人都可以逃避的情況。在阿根廷，有一個廣泛可接觸且複雜的美元黑市。但在馬拉維，這種情況並不存在。人們被困在克瓦查中。根據該國央行的數據，馬拉維85%的人口沒有銀行賬戶，這意味著幾乎每個人都使用政府發行的紙制克瓦查鈔票作為他們主要的價值存儲和交換媒介。在這裡，貶值仍然是從人口中偷竊的一種有效方式。  * 如果有人設計了一種完美的武器，一種能夠同時傷害一個國家所有人的武器，很難想像比貨幣貶值更好的武器了。與核爆炸或生物武器不同，它可以同時傷害每個人。在這種情況下，對馬拉維數百萬人的購買力和生活水平立即造成了44%的降低，特別是那些無法輕易獲得美元的較貧困和中產階級。 * 並不是政府舉行了公民投票，問公眾是否希望他們的購買力在下周崩潰：當然，沒有人會同意。貶值必須是秘密計劃和組織的，它往往是一夜之間的現象。因此，儘管馬拉維被視為一個[部分自由的國家](https://freedomhouse.org/country/malawi/freedom-world/2023)，擁有相對自由和公平的選舉，但貶值完全是不民主的。這是一個更大的全球問題的一部分，金融壓制被忽視，儘管政治壓制被討論和突出。 * 例如，貶值往往被排除在報紙的背頁，被塑造成一個程序性的事項。但它們造成了嚴重的傷害。令人奇怪的是，為什麼貶值不被視為一種犯罪，甚至不是一種反人類的罪行。馬拉維的人民確實進行了抵抗，他們舉行了一系列抗議活動。這些小規模的起義經常被警察殘酷鎮壓。最終，遊行者被迫放棄，接受了被盜竊的結果。這並不是公眾第一次在規模上被剝奪了他們的勞動和工資：在過去的20年中，克瓦查兌美元的價值已經下跌了95%，其中很大一部分是在像這樣計劃好的貶值中發生的。 * 當我們開車穿過布蘭太爾附近的市場和農場時，顯然勤勞的人們並不需要這樣的貶值。他們已經是世界上一些最貧困的人口之一。根據聯合國的數據，馬拉維的人均收入大約在每年650美元左右。假設每周工作五天，從早上九點工作到下午五點，那就是每小時33美分。當然，這只是中位數水平。對於生活在偏遠地區的人來說，每年的收入可能更接近100美元，或者每小時5美分。現在，他們每小時的努力只能獲得56%的穀物、水果、肉類、話費、電力、藥品、私立學校教育或汽油，比兩個月前少了。 * 這次特別的貶值，就像許多其他貶值一樣，是外界壓力的結果，來自於IMF和世界銀行，他們希望客戶國在獲得任何新資金之前先實行緊縮政策。緊縮政策是一個委婉詞，意味著貨幣貶值、取消基本商品的補貼、縮減福利、提高稅收、打壓工會、損害小型本地企業，並為大型跨國公司和對當地收穫、開採或生產的商品的購買者創造更有利的條件。 * 在完成了2023年末的貶值並取悅了債權人之後，馬拉維獲得了來自世界銀行的1.37億美元貸款的綠燈，以及來自[IMF的新貸款](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/11/15/pr23394-malawi-exec-board-2nd-review-ssmp-involvement-approved-48-month-arrangement-ecf)1.75億美元。截至十二月初，這些貸款中已有1.15億美元已經支付出去，成為了該國腐敗官僚的聖誕紓困。[IMF預計](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-67533098?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6579b14569d486126e942019%26Beleaugured+Malawi+to+get+%24137m+budget+support%262023-12-13T14%3A37%3A03.841Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn%3Aasset%3Ae5991e91-0d55-4d7c-b3bf-42845621b515&pinned_post_asset_id=6579b14569d486126e942019&pinned_post_type=share&at_ptr_name=twitter&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_campaign_type=owned&at_medium=social&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_link_id=6EA51990-99C7-11EE-AA42-4602AAF30DC0&at_link_type=web_link&at_link_origin=BBCAfrica&at_format=image)馬拉維未來三年將需要10億美元的債務減免，這意味著更多的貨幣貶值即將來臨。 * 街上流傳的消息是，另一次貶值，也許是25%，即將到來。  * 這場貨幣貶值已經對該國經濟產生了巨大的宏觀影響：馬拉維最大的移動運營商之一艾泰爾在2023年底發布聲明稱，公司的利潤預計將比2022年的利潤減少100%。“不利的偏差，”他們寫道，“是由外匯損失的影響引起的...因為自2023年6月以來，馬拉維克瓦查兌美元的價值已經下降了66%。” * 公民可能已經停止在街頭抗議這場災難，但有些人正在尋找其他更安靜的方式來發動革命。 * 格蘭特·戈姆布瓦(Grant Gombwa)是生活在布蘭太爾地區的一名學生，也是該國首批比特幣聚會組織者之一。馬拉維的第一次官方比特幣聚會將於二月在首都利隆圭舉行。格蘭特將開車五個小時與大約兩打其他比特幣愛好者會合。這只是一個謙虛的開始，但考慮到經濟條件，這很可能是新比特幣使用者的開端。格蘭特表示，個人而言，他的靈感來自於之前他受困於無法用自己的本地貨幣支付國外的任何東西。但是今天，他有了一次升級，可以和紐約、開羅或北京的人說同一種貨幣語言。 * 格蘭特估計，在馬拉維這樣的國家，年齡在18至30歲之間的年輕人幾乎所有人都擁有手機，約三分之二擁有智能手機。當然，並非所有智能手機用戶都負擔得起持續的數據費用，但這並不妨礙他們使用比特幣。 * 我們後來將會了解到，在馬拉維等國家，非洲人可以使用一個名為Machankura的服務，在任何功能手機或沒有數據的智能手機上收發比特幣：無需互聯網。這意味著一條經濟逃生之路已經出現 - 只是格蘭特和其他當地教育工作者需要一些時間來向人們指引這條路。 * 在我們的對話中，格蘭特解釋了一個可能有前景的想法。他說，馬拉維政府在外國貸款人的激勵下，正在全國各地安裝電動車充電站。他猜測，很少有當地人實際上能負擔得起這些類型的汽車，尤其是在最初的幾年。因此，這些太陽能電力發電機將大部分時間閒置不用，浪費太陽能。進入比特幣。 * 格蘭特的想法是將一些ASIC帶到這些可能閒置的充電站，連接它們，賺取一些satoshis，並支付一定比例的收益給地產所有者，以確保他不會被趕出去。我們將看看格蘭特的想法是否會得到支持。但可以肯定的是，將有更多的想法像春天一樣從布蘭太爾和邦多等地涌出，現在浪費的能源可以轉化為資本。 ### 將火轉化為數位黃金 * Great Rift Valley位於地球上最大的地震和火山活動區之一。這片地區，從紅海一直延伸到莫桑比克，擁有巨大而幾乎完全未被開發的地熱能潛力。  * 為了感受比特幣挖礦對該地區可能產生的影響，我參觀了肯尼亚境內納伊瓦薩湖附近的一個地點。該情況代表了非洲鄉村地區的眾多工業運營場所，或者說，代表了世界上任何地方的農村地區。一座1.4兆瓦的地熱發電廠（通過將從2000米深的地孔中冒出的熱蒸汽通過渦輪機引導以發電）為湖岸上大約一公里遠的一座水泵供電。 * 水泵將湖水泵送到附近的一片田地，那裡種植並出口到歐洲超市。這只是肯尼亚眾多花田中的一片：肯尼亚是世界上最大的花卉出口國，所有這些花田都需要灌溉，而所有這些灌溉都需要電力。 * 問題在於：這些水泵的能耗並不是一致的。但是地熱能始終是可用的，暗示著一大筆電力浪費只等著有人（或某物）來收購。地熱可能是世界上最適合比特幣挖礦的現有動力源。水力是不錯的，但在旱季可能會減緩。核能在理論上可能更好，但目前對於小型場地來說是不切實際的，而且距離在整個非洲推出還有至少十年的時間。 * 地熱是100％清潔且100％穩定的。像納伊瓦薩湖這樣的發電廠可以運行40年，毫無中斷，發電量也不會有所變化。在這個地區，僅有這樣的一個站點就有10億瓦特（即一千兆瓦）的發電量。該站點的負責人告訴我們，周圍的山丘和山谷實際上可以支持多達10GW的地熱電力，但其餘的尚未開發。   * 在泵下面，我們看到了非洲鄉村任何工業運營場所可能很快都會出現的一種情景：一個小木屋，頂部裝有一個發出強烈嗡嗡聲的Starlink。屋內有144個Whatsminer ASIC，整齊地布置，用線整齊地接好，由Gridless運營。從小屋本身到軟件，一切都是由非洲人製作的自定義產品。這是一個500千瓦的操作，根據Erik的說法，對於這種情況來說是非常完美的。他用手機向我展示了ASICs實際使用的電力：平均每天約375千瓦。這可以預測未來。 Gridless對比特幣挖礦收入進行了為期5年的回溯研究，並且可以預測比特幣網絡將支付他們每千瓦時7至9美分的報酬。如果BTC價格上漲，收益將因新的挖礦競爭而受到打壓。如果BTC價格下跌，挖礦將變得更容易：這就是難度調整(difficulty adjustment)的作用。  * 像納伊瓦薩湖上的這種設置的前期成本，包括ASIC和其他基礎設施在內，價格在低六位數。比特幣礦的每日收入將是幾百美元。 Gridless支付30％的收入給電力公司，作為使用廢棄電力的權利的固定費用。根據多餘能量的一致性，Gridless通常在幾年內收回其投資。 * 人們可以迅速看出，比特幣挖礦在整個非洲將是非常有利可圖的。“如果你知道你正在建造一個未來的需求可變電站，你將從一開始就納入比特幣挖礦，”Erik說。“否則，你正在浪費能源。” * 他說，將能量存儲在電池中並在以後使用聽起來是個好主意，但從經濟或技術上來說，現在並不合理。想像一下稍大一點的2兆瓦操作，類似於納伊瓦薩湖上的操作，每年可能達到100萬美元，而且不是以克瓦查或先令計價，而是以冷硬的薩托什計價，直接支付給該站點，無需會計辦公室或外匯費用。 * 湖邊的景象完全是太陽朋克：地球的熱能正在為農業提供動力，而比特幣礦正在消除任何電力浪費，並將其轉換為數字黃金。在這樣的地方坐著，你會意識到比特幣挖礦是一種驚人的能源浪費。 * 隨後，在內羅畢的一家餐廳裡，我與Gridless團隊討論了納伊瓦薩湖站點的影響，就在我們用餐的時候，電力中斷了。珍娜告訴我，這在肯尼亚很常見，但比特幣可以作為需求響應技術來幫助解決這個問題。 * “在白天，需求很大，我們關掉我們的機器，”她說，“晚上，人們去睡覺時，我們打開我們的機器。通常，如果斷開得太快太多，可能會造成停電。但是我們可以通過更多的比特幣挖礦來平衡電網。我們可以吸收突然湧入的電力，並通過關閉來減緩突然的電力崩潰。” * ASIC可以隨時開啟或關閉，對操作者不會造成任何損害，不像製造或其他計算過程，這使得比特幣挖礦成為世界上最好的技術之一，用於穩定電網。 * Gridless在小規模的離網能源方面所做的事情也可以幫助整個非洲大陸的國家電網。 * 微水力和地熱不是Gridless正在跟蹤的唯一能源。他們表示，太陽能一天只提供三分之一的能量，並且需要昂貴的電池技術才能成為可行。這些電池可能會使運營一個電站的成本增加兩倍，使其變得不那麼具有吸引力。 * Gridless確實關注了一些風力發電站，但另一個選擇是生物質能源。在過去的幾周裡，該公司已經將兩個新的東非比特幣挖礦站點投入運營，由生物質提供動力。 * 一個新礦坑裝飾了一個糖業加工廠，另一個與一個精煉剑麻的工廠相輔相成，剑麻是一種用於地毯、繩索和其他紡織品的堅韌纖維。在這兩種情況下，剩餘的植物材料被燒毀，熱能煮沸水以驅動渦輪機發電。在大多數非洲工業運營場所，這樣的情況通常是離任何居民社區太遠，無法直接為住宅或其他企業提供電力。通常，這些電力只是直接回到地下。 * 生物質通常被認為是清潔和可再生的：剑麻和糖業植物將二氧化碳從空氣中吸收到其組成部分中，然後當它們被燃燒時，碳就被釋放回天空。剑麻和糖業生產在東非和南非廣泛存在，但多餘的電力通常會被浪費。 * 菲利普解釋說，即使在將發電設施添加到剑麻或糖廠的情況下，運營商通常也無法產生電力，除非使用了大約70％的容量：否則鍋爐就會發生故障。在糖廠的情況下，附近沒有人買電。在剑麻農場的情況下，發電功能根本沒有被打開。再次：進入比特幣。通過Gridless技術，這些發電站現在以接近滿負荷運行，並節省了以前被孤立的電力，將其轉化為資本。 * “ASIC將成為任何能源站的集成組件，”菲利普說。“一個渦輪機，一個變壓器和一個挖礦容器。這就是你要做的。如果你不這樣做，你將不具競爭力。你會浪費能源。” ### 沒有網路的比特幣 * 截至2023年，約有[6億非洲人](https://www.statista.com/topics/9813/internet-usage-in-africa/#topicOverview)沒有網際網路訪問權。超過半數的非洲大陸仍然處於離線狀態。Starlink使Gridless的業務成為可能，而像[BRCK](https://brck.com/about/)這樣的創新公司繼續擴大農村地區的互聯網訪問。但是，對於馬拉維這樣的國家的普通公民來說，比特幣有什麼作用呢？該國只有一小部分人口在線。 * 十年前，比特幣教育家安德烈亞斯·安東諾普洛斯(Andreas Antonopolous)[曾經思考過](https://www.amazon.com/Internet-Money-Andreas-M-Antonopoulos/dp/1537000454)：如果非洲可以像跳過固定電話一樣跳過銀行呢？人們是否可以只使用手機訪問由比特幣驅動的金融服務？他[甚至想知道](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM&t=2729s)：這在沒有互聯網訪問的情況下是否可能？ * 命運就像是在告訴我們，一位名叫Kgothatso Ngako的企業家，在8年前提出了一個解決方案，他出生在南非比勒陀利亞市外的馬梅洛迪鎮，這個城鎮最初是南非種族隔離政府建造的。  * Ngako，通常被稱為“KG”，大約8年前在比勒陀利亞的科學和工業研究委員會擔任電腦科學家時，他的老板給了他一項新的任務：研究比特幣。 * KG曾在2016年為一項遠程工作（當時為1.3 BTC，今天價值超過50,000美元）被提供了1000美元的比特幣支付，但他選擇了用PayPal支付。為什麼？他無法使用比特幣進行任何交易。他參與的CSIR研究重新激發了他的興趣，但最終研究人員得出結論，區塊鏈技術是有價值的，而不是比特幣。 * 2017年，比特幣的價格飆升，KG和許多其他人一樣，最終更加深入地研究了比特幣。但最初引起他興趣的是比特幣周圍噴發的加密令牌的星系。到2018年初，當下一個熊市開始襲擊時，他正在Binance上交易眾多的令牌。他擁有一堆價值已經跌得無法在引擎上交易的另類幣，因此KG訪問了一個“塵土頁面”將它們轉換為Binance的本地BNB令牌，然後從那裡轉換為BTC。 * 他最終進行了足夠的閱讀和研究，看到了足夠的東西：他想要開始在比特幣中儲蓄和工作，而不是其他數字貨幣。特別是華倫·巴菲特啟發了他：KG想，30年內什麼會升值？他認為是比特幣，也許不太是其他代幣。 * KG的第一個比特幣項目是Exonumia，名字來自於古老的貨幣學和錢幣學的詞語。在2018年，他還沒準備好用代碼為比特幣做出貢獻，但至少，他認為自己可以向更多人介紹這個想法。Exonumia是一個跨非洲的翻譯平台，至今仍在運作，它將比特幣教育資料翻譯成從柏柏人到馬拉加斯語再到紹納語等幾十種非洲語言。KG說，關鍵在於翻譯本身的架構。 * 大多數人會嘗試使用軟件來自動翻譯。但這並不是任務的全部意義。建立一個人類網絡才是真正的目標。因此，KG用了“慢的方式”，並從非洲各國招募人才，付錢讓他們完成工作。隨著時間的推移，他在整個非洲大陸的許多地方結識了比特幣愛好者。2019年，他通過在Twitter上定期舉辦空間活動，邀請所有對比特幣感興趣的非洲人擴大了這個網絡。人們會通過Exonumia帳戶突然給他發消息，提出新的想法，來自新的國家，新的項目應運而生。 * 在CSIR的工作結束後，KG加入了AWS。但最終，那裡的工作讓他感覺更遠離他感興趣的事物。正如他所說，它完全脫離了他成長的南非鎮區的現實生活。 * Exomunia似乎更加重要。在2020年底，他決定退出企業世界，全職致力於自由技術。他啟動的第一個軟件項目是一個VPN，名為ContentConnect.Net。隱私對KG來說非常重要。不久前，他說，南非人生活在一個極權的監控和控制之下。他指出，史蒂夫·畢高曾用化名發表了他著名的“我寫我所愛”的文章：當當局發現他是作者後，他們將他審判並殺害了他。 * KG說，每個人都可以成為英雄，但如果他們覺得這太冒險，他們就不會邁出最大的步伐。因此，創建一個讓非洲人可以訪問的增強隱私的VPN是一個值得追求的目標。 * KG的下一個項目是解決他認為是非洲比特幣普及中最大障礙之一的軟件解決方案：缺乏互聯網接入。10年前，他曾參與麻省理工學院全球初創實驗室在南非開展的移動支付項目。問題在於移動支付系統是分散的，他們希望嘗試橋接全國各地人們使用的不同類型的信用。這就是他開始對USSD進行改進的地方：一種通過短信進行通信的協議，無需互聯網。2022年5月，一位納米比亞的比特幣愛好者寫道：“肯定有辦法讓一個比特幣錢包進入一部非智能手機。肯定有人足夠聰明找到這個辦法。我相信你。” KG[迅速回答](https://twitter.com/440UrPp/status/1529048714547015681)說：“給我兩周時間。”他準備好了。當他離開亞馬遜去工作他的VPN時，他已經減薪了（被稱為“靈魂股息”），但比以往任何時候都更有活力地工作於比特幣。 * 在他著名的推特發布幾天後，他在腦海中想起了10年前的MIT挑戰的經驗，他推出了Machankura，指的是南非的一個俚語詞彙，意思是錢。這項新服務將允許功能手機用戶 - 或者沒有數據的智能手機用戶 - 發送、接收和儲存比特幣。Machankura所克服的一些最大挑戰在於UX領域：傳統上，要使用比特幣，人們需要複製和粘貼一個地址，或者掃描一個二維碼。但是一般的功能手機並沒有這些功能。KG的工具還需要使用閃電網絡，以克服越來越高的鏈上費用，但USSD的字符限制為182個字符，因此長度過長的閃電發票是不會合適的。解決方案是採用閃電地址，這是巴西軟件工程師Andre Neves和Fiatjaf發明的一種機制，它為Machankura用戶提供了一個基於電子郵件的、可讀的人類身份。例如，<電話號碼>@8333.mobi  * 今天，Machankura用戶可以使用電話號碼或閃電地址“用戶名”彼此之間發送比特幣。他們還可以使用鏈上地址或閃電發票，假設他們的手機具有複製粘貼功能，但前兩種選擇佔主導地位。要啟動該服務，用戶從手機拨打一個號碼，生成包含各種選項的短信回覆，類似於一個決策樹。要發送，請按1，等等。從這裡，用戶可以通過無需互聯網做出各種事情，與比特幣交互。 * 其中一個強大的功能是與[Azteco](https://azte.co/)，一個兌換服務的交叉。例如，KG可以進入南非的一家便利店，用現金購買一張稱為OneVoucher的兌換券。在肯尼亞，某人可能使用MPESA購買類似的兌換券。這是一個帶有一定價值的16位數字代碼，該代碼可以輸入到Machankura菜單中。在後台，KG和團隊所做的是用16位數字代碼購買Azteco兌換券，並將賬戶的資金充入Machankura用戶的賬戶。這使Machankura用戶可以輕鬆地使用現金或MPESA信用“充值”他們的比特幣賬戶。 * Machankura還擁有一個與Bitrefill的API，因此任何在Bitrefill上可用的產品都可以在應用的用戶界面上銷售。根據國家的不同，可用性有所不同，但當他們進入應用程序內部的選項4時，他們可以交換商品和服務：例如，空中時間或杂货券。這意味著，就在今天，當我們進入2024年，Machankura的用戶群（共計12,000名非洲人）能夠在全球范圍內發送和接收價值，購買移動時間，購買汽油或汽油券，購買電力（通過預付充值券），或者交易為現金，全部使用比特幣，並且無需互聯網。 KG的夢想開始實現了。 * 當然，仍然存在著重大挑戰。其中之一是在整個非洲大陸進行擴展。目前，KG與像Africas Talking這樣的服務合作，以訪問不同的電信網絡。在該模型中，Machankura每月向Africas Talking支付空中時間費，而不是用戶直接支付電信費。擴展是一個緩慢但穩健的過程，但正在發生，甚至在馬拉維等地也是如此。第二個挑戰是保管。目前，Machankura是一個托管服務。這意味著：他們持有您的比特幣。不是您的密鑰，就不是您的幣。因此，即使它是一個非常有用的工具，它實際上並未給予其用戶財產權。但是，在接下來的幾個月中，Machankura計劃發布一個自我保管的概念證明。如果運行順利，它將是比特幣歷史上最大的創新之一，使無互聯網的人實際上成為自己的銀行。 * KG說，訣竅在於SIM卡是一個可以存儲東西的計算平台。例如，它可以簽署比特幣交易，或與閃電網絡進行交互。他受到的激勵是將Machankura推向這個方向，以實現人類自由的使命，但也出於商業原因：他們不想像MPesa那樣變得如此龐大，對所有用戶資金負責，承擔如此多的交易對方風險。這樣，當KG去Vodaphone爭取合作伙伴關係，希望吸引數千萬新用戶時，他可以說：您想如何向您的用戶介紹比特幣，而無需承擔交易對方風險？這比他說：讓我們向您的用戶介紹比特幣，但您必須持有所有資金，並處理那些法規和法律以及責任的要求，要容易得多。 * 在西方，比特幣的接受可能意味著大型連網採礦業務和ETF的集中化力量。但令人驚訝的諷刺之處在於，在非洲，比特幣的技術進程使貨幣越來越分散化。隨著網絡在數十個完全分開的地點消耗越來越多的離網廉價電力，它變得越來越難以關閉。隨著網絡在數百萬甚至數千萬SIM卡上添加越來越多的自我保管用戶，它變得越來越不可阻擋。正如[Lyn Alden](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/lyn-alden)在她的書[《Broken Money》](https://thesaifhouse.com/#books)中描述的那樣，到目前為止，隨著貨幣技術變得越來越數字化和先進，它無可避免地變得越來越集中化。比特幣打破了這一趨勢，非洲幫助比特幣打破了這一趨勢。 * 隨著非洲幫助比特幣，比特幣也幫助非洲人。KG說，一些Machankura用戶從功能手機開始，然后在參與比特幣經濟後，為自己買了智能手機。他們正在使用比特幣將自己拉入互聯網。通過Gridless，其他人正在使用比特幣將自己拉入電力。他們一起走向未來。 ### 性別差距 * Marcel Lorraine 指出，非洲有七億名女性，將來或許都能成為比特幣的使用者。Marcel，一位來自肯亞的企業家和社會活動家，將其生命的使命定為將非洲的女性納入一種新的貨幣體系，讓她們（而不是她們的丈夫）可以掌控，並真正提高她們的自由。 * 她的旅程始於2018年，當時她在奈洛比做工作，並在財務上感到困擾。她經營著自己的公司Loryce，為企業和社會活動提供諮詢服務。她說她會儲存自己的收入，但在年底時，所能展示的東西越來越少。她表示政府一直在提高稅收。而她唯一的選擇就是在肯亞先令的銀行帳戶中進行儲蓄，而該先令則在極快的速度內貶值。值得一提的是，儘管不如克瓦查那麼疲弱，但2023年，肯亞先令對美元貶值了21%，而美元本身也對商品和服務貶值。最終，肯亞人的工資至少比一年前少了25%的東西。  * 在演出期間，Marcel得知了加密貨幣和去中心化金融。她自問：“我能不能用這個得到報酬，擺脫手續費和通脹的困擾呢？”當時，她說，在肯亞，區塊鏈周圍的狂熱程度令人匪夷所思。有大量的詐騙，以及圍繞不同代幣的大量宣傳活動。在那個時候，沒有教育中心或小組：你會參加一個活動，並希望它不是在宣傳詐騙。她表示：“我投資了各種代幣，包括比特幣。我賺了錢，也輸了錢。這令人沮喪。” * 在COVID大流行期間，她無法進行活動製作，因此她在先令和美元之間進行了日交易。她決定專注於比特幣，因為她沒有時間研究多種投資方式，而且，正如她所說，比特幣是數字貨幣的鼻祖。 * 2022年，Marcel在四月份協助組織了肯亞的第一次疫情後比特幣活動，地點在奈洛比一家飯店的一個滿是比特幣愛好者的會議室。參與者包括當地的教育者Rufas Kamau和Master Guantai，甚至還有Paco de la India，他正在進行一項只使用比特幣旅行的旅程。在那次活動中，Marcel注意到了一個問題：男性很多，但只有兩名女性，而她是其中之一。她注意到加密和區塊鏈活動存在性別差距，可能只有30%的女性。但比特幣的性別比例是98比2？“我們可以做得更好，”她說。因此，她聯繫了一些女性朋友，他們告訴她，他們害怕參加比特幣活動，因為環境感覺被男性主導。好吧，她想：“有一個問題，我可以提供解決方案。” * Marcel在2022年創建了Bitcoin DADA，作為一個供女孩和女性學習金融自由的安全空間。首個小組在五月舉辦，有20人，僅是她的朋友圈。從那時起，她每週二和週四晚上9:00開設線上課程。起初，只有肯亞女性參加。在第二個小組中，他們有40名學生。每個小組為期6周。現在，她說，他們已經舉辦了五個小組，超過300名女性參加了課程，總共有130名畢業生。她們現在都對比特幣有了扎實的理解。她們知道如何自我保管並通過現金交易無需KYC購買比特幣。 * 在我們穿越奈洛比的途中，我看到Marcel毫不費力地使用Bitnob和Machankura用MPESA購買比特幣，然後在不使用任何數據的情況下發送比特幣。我想到華爾街或硅谷的人們會被這項技術震驚，而她卻使之看起來如此簡單。Marcel通常在她的課程中建議一系列錢包，包括自我保管的Muun和Phoenix，以及用於小額交易的保管錢包Wallet of Satoshi。 * 對於入口，Marcel通常推薦尼日利亞創立的Bitnob應用程序。學生，就像肯亞的每個人一樣，都有MPESA，並使用Bitnob將其兌換為比特幣，然後提取到例如Muun錢包。肯亞比馬拉威發展得多，但許多智能手機用戶仍然沒有穩定的數據，因此Machankura也是一個關鍵工具。對於主要的課程，Marcel使用了Mi Primer Bitcoin書（最初在薩爾瓦多創建），然後她通過實際例子向學生解釋非洲女性成為比特幣持有者的重要性。 * 回到2022年，Marcel第一次聽說非洲比特幣大會。奧地利教育家Anita Posch接觸了Marcel，問她是否參加：不，Marcel說，這太昂貴了。但Anita堅持幫忙組織籌款活動，並貢獻一半，社區則支付其餘部分。在2022年12月訪問阿克拉時，Marcel受到了該會議組織者和多哥人權活動家Farida Nabourema創建的啟發。在2023年，Marcel帶著4位女士回到了該會議的第二版，而Bitcoin DADA幫助了兩支女性領導的團隊參加了該活動的黑客馬拉松。Marcel現在提供了一個導師計劃，該計劃有助於女士們以自己的能力在社交媒體上發聲，或在像ABC這樣的活動上，幫助她們講述自己的故事。 * 在現場，Marcel訪問大學，並為女性和男性一起開展培訓。學生因為經常成為詐騙的目標而變得脆弱。她描述了WorldCoin為了試圖欺騙肯尼亞學生購買和交易其代幣而採取的可恥手段。她指出，比特幣並沒有類似的營銷預算。她表示，教育和培訓青年是被低估但至關重要的。最近參加她在大學舉辦的活動的每個人都曾被WorldCoin針對：這是一個殘酷的現實。 * Marcel的目標是簡化DADA的導師計劃，以便他們可以為比特幣公司匹配人才和技能，幫助女性在這個領域找到工作，並擴展到不同的國家。她的一些學生已經在比特幣生態系統的組織中獲得了工作或獎學金，例如Btrust或ABC。她說，他們現在在烏干達有30位活躍的校友，還有更多在尼日利亞、南非和坦桑尼亞。   * “對我來說，” Marcel 說，“比特幣讓我們找回聲音。作為非洲人很難，作為非洲女性更難。這為我們提供了財政獨立的機會，可以讓我們更好地改進自己。” * Marcel長期以來一直支持內羅畢基貝拉的一所學校，這是非洲最大的城市貧民窟。她親眼看到比特幣幫助人們擺脫困境。她知道它可以幫助更多更多的人，但需要做出艱苦的努力。 * 她的使命似乎是一項艱鉅的任務：從現在可能只有幾千名非洲女性比特幣用戶，到數萬、數十萬、數百萬，最終是數億。 “如果我不這樣做，” Marcel 說，“那麼我就辜負了我的姐妹們。金融被認為是男人的事，所以女性受到了經濟虐待。我不想把女性拋在後面。” * 她說，比特幣為解決貨幣貶值等宏觀問題和家庭內壓迫等微觀問題提供了一種出路。她表示，很多外國援助沒有真正到達貧民窟。比特幣有助於確保資金直接到達需要的地方：“我們消除浪費和腐敗。” * 在我在內羅畢的最後一個晚上，我遇到了當地的比特幣企業家Felix。像我遇到的許多其他人一樣，他現在經營一家比特幣企業，以出售商品為例，並以聖代賺錢。他解釋了Binance的閃電集成對肯尼亚人來說是多麼重要，因為現在他們可以使用非常低的費用與 Wallet of Satoshi、Phoenix、Machankura 等應用程序即時接口。他說 Binance p2p 也被廣泛用於從 MPESA 到比特幣的交易。我問他有關 Marcel 的事情，他對她的工作讚不絕口。他說，讓女性參與比特幣的應用是至關重要的，而 Marcel 在這方面是在做上帝的工作。“她正在，”他說，“彌合差距。” ### 非洲生產者，非消費者 * 比特幣挖礦或許有助於為數百萬非洲人提供電力，但如果所得款項在當地經濟中無法使用，且無法由所有公民使用，那麼這只是一場局部的革命。對於非洲普及比特幣的一個挑戰是缺乏互聯網，另一個是女性參與不足，而根據 Femi Longe 的說法，還有一個挑戰是打破對西方的依賴循環。 * Femi 是一位尼日利亞社會企業家，擁有20年的經驗，指導非洲技術人員和初創企業創始人，並在創建和運營尼日利亞和肯尼亞兩個最重要的科技中心方面發揮了關鍵作用。2022年，他被聘請來領導Qala Fellows，這是一個由Tim Akinbo、Carla Kirk-Cohen、Bernard Parah和Abubakar Nur Khalil發起的倡議，旨在加速非洲電腦工程師投入比特幣生態系統的過程。 * 去年，Qala被Btrust收購，這是由Jack Dorsey和Jay-Z創立的慈善機構，旨在支持非洲和全球南方的比特幣基礎設施，並更名為Btrust Builders，Femi現在擔任該機構的主管。他致力於幫助非洲人在比特幣價值鏈中上升。他希望他們不僅僅是現有全球金融體系中的消費者，而是成為新比特幣經濟中的生產者。  * Femi表示，這個旅程有兩個方面：首先，讓非洲人更多參與協議和基礎設施的討論。正如杰克·多爾西所說，如果比特幣要成為全球的貨幣，就必須在全球範圍內進行制定。Femi表示，非洲的觀點將需要幫助發展比特幣的真正潛力。我們已經在Machankura的產品路線圖中看到了這一點，該產品可能通過創建潛在的數百萬自我保管的用戶來分散和加強比特幣，以及Gridless的工作，使挖礦更加難以審查和強大。 Femi表示，旅程的第二個方面是創建幫助非洲人在其自己的社區、城市和國家中提高生活質量的比特幣工具和應用程序。 * Femi表示，現在還只是初期階段：在2022年，當Qala參加了關於第一次非洲比特幣大會的黑客馬拉松時，他們很難吸引參與者。 Femi表示，人們“只是在嘗試水溫”，但在2023年，他表示才華橫溢的人才湧入令人印象深刻。 BitPension是一家初創公司，旨在讓非洲的任何人設立以比特幣計價的退休金，任何人都可以每天購買一些薩托席，這些薩托席進入定時鎖定的自我保管中，以便你無法背叛自己。 Femi表示，今天的退休金很容易欺騙你，或者它們可能正在投資於石油或武器公司。 BitPension或類似的想法可能是改變遊戲規則的。 該公司獲得了價值5000美元的BTC，目前正在建造最小可行產品。 Femi還指出了Splice，另一個參加黑客馬拉松的公司，該公司正在利用本地移動支付代理社區來促進使用Taproot Assets的閃電進行美元穩定的交易。 * Femi表示，西方對比特幣的心態過於關注儲蓄方面，而對中介交換部分的關注不足。在他看來，這種對儲蓄的過度強調減緩了採用速度，並將法定貨幣鞏固為比特幣的入口。他說，需要做的工作不僅僅是教人們如何儲蓄，還要與當地的共享車隊應用程序等合作，並向他們展示如何添加本地比特幣支付選項。他說，唯一能夠擺脫破碎的貨幣體系的方法是建立一個新的體系，將舊的體系完全拋在身後。 * 考慮一下普通人的一天，Femi說，問：他們將在哪些接觸點與貨幣互動？現在：我們如何在這其中的任何一個接觸點上使用比特幣？我們如何幫助創建選擇，使他們能夠花費所賺取的比特幣？Femi說，如果他們沒有這些選擇，他們就仍然是剝削性法定貨幣體系的一部分。他相信，我們擁有的商家服務越多，我們就能夠購買越多的商品，對USD轉換方面的興趣就越少。他說：“如果我們不能得到商家的支持，我們就被困在過去。” * Femi還有一個見解是，錢包將來將是功能，而不是核心產品。“您將硬幣存放在哪里很重要。比它們更重要的是您可以用它們做什麼，”他說。他表示，未來將會有養老金解決方案、國際貿易結算解決方案、薪資解決方案：目前，這些服務中的許多與錢包無關，最終將內建這些功能。  * Femi關注的另一個方面是幫助非洲人建立強大的敘述。他指出，沒有由非洲人編寫的比特幣書籍。“我們需要講述我們的故事，記錄我們的經歷，”他說。他說：“關於比特幣的用途和用戶群體有一個強大的敘述，”他說。許多在日常生活中除了儲蓄之外使用比特幣的人不知道如何或不太擅長向他人解釋這一點。或者，他們可能不想警告當局。例如，他指出尼日利亞進口商不希望國家知道他們正在用比特幣支付。政府則已指示任何參與比特幣或加密貨幣的銀行凍結帳戶。 * 當人們看到尼日利亞是比特幣採用排名前十的國家時，他們說：尼日利亞有很多Hodler。不，Femi說：“這些人中很多人甚至沒有錢包。他們只是需要明天將資金匯給中國。他們將奈拉發送給一些進行轉帳的人。”比特幣開始改變國際商業的結構，但沒有人知道。在一定程度上，這是因為人們不想讓別人知道有關詳情，但另一方面又是因為沒有投資到一個幫助人們講述自己故事的平台。 * 他說，比特幣生態系統並沒有在反駁IMF可能會說的話方面進行工作。據Femi稱，採用方面幾乎沒有什麼實證數據，這實際上可能有助於制定政策者。他在尼日利亞政府的一位聯繫人告訴他：“我需要一些東西來說明我這是有道理的，這不僅僅是將權力從一群白人轉交給另一群白人。” Femi表示，也沒有足夠的工作來幫助人們避免詐騙和令牌計劃。這損害了個人，也損害了任何希望創新的政府。看看中非共和國，他說。“他們試圖效仿薩爾瓦多，但一群名為Sango Coin的騙子率先到達了那里。” * “要前進，我認為我們需要寫書，” Femi 說道。“對很多人來說，這是可怕的，因為我們以前從未這樣做過。我們不知道這個過程是什麼。” 他說，16或17年前，他想讀一本由非洲人寫的非虛構書籍——但是很難找到一本。加納經濟學家喬治·阿伊蒂的《非洲的解放》是他看到的第一本書之一，但像這樣的書不多。根據 Femi 的說法，這個問題現在已經擴展到比特幣領域。他的同事、Btrust 領導人阿布巴卡爾·努爾·哈利爾在《福布斯》專欄中所做的工作很棒，“但我們需要書籍，以及如何實現的指導。” * Femi 認為很多事情都可能出錯。隨著比特幣繼續以規模增長，他對比特幣億萬富翁的權力持懷疑態度。“作為一個非洲人，”他說，“我們已經看到了比爾·蓋茨可能有好意，但他的基金會目前對非洲的醫療政策有著巨大的影響。扎克可能很棒——但他的公司在這里有巨大的影響力。所以在我心中，即使系統正在分散化，但在一個超比特幣化的世界中仍然會有一些人擁有過大的權力。比特幣的真正承諾是每個人都應該有公平的機會。我們生活的世界是破碎的：無論在每個國家，最富有和最貧窮的差距都空前地擴大。在比特幣世界中複製這些不平衡將是一種失敗。” * 儘管有此顧慮，Femi 說非洲人“無法負擔只是旁觀者的角色”。他說，比特幣是不可避免的，並且已經在我們周圍發生。他認為它可能改變現有的全球貨幣制度。他說：“非洲發生的事情影響著世界各地黑人的待遇。比特幣是重新定義權力體系和權力結構的機會。” * 他希望當比特幣實現其全部潛力時，非洲在世界上的地位將會不同。獨立，而不是依賴。“我討厭來自每個人都想幫助的大陸，”他說。 * 但是，非洲從比特幣革命中真正受益的唯一途徑，他說，就是由非洲人帶領。 “我懷有的希望，”他說，“並不是必然的。我們必須讓它發生。” ### A glitch in the matrix * 在肯亞，我有機會聽到了菲利普關於Gridless的起源故事：10年前，他和埃里克討論了土爾卡納風電場，這是肯亞建成的一個巨大的400兆瓦項目，多年來一直沒有客戶。政府不得不支付9至10美分每千瓦時，卻什麼也沒有得到。這是因為建築師不會在沒有政府或錨定客戶的收入流的情況下建造該項目。這種情況很常見：一種“採購或付款”合同。最糟糕的部分是：肯亞擁有很多廉價的地熱能源，但通常情況下實際上是被保持脫機，因為政府已經為昂貴的風能支付了昂貴的費用。 * 埃里克和菲利普見證了這一切，並想：多麼災難。他們還想：我們該怎麼解決這個問題？有沒有一個不需要太多連接性的電力用戶？那是不受地理位置限制的？最初，他們考慮將一個鋁加工廠搬到土爾卡納，但物流挑戰太大了。然後他們考慮了一個數據中心。但他們認為互聯網不夠好。 * 最後，靈感來了：比特幣可以解決這個問題。他們笑著想像，如果他們十年前冒險嘗試了這個想法，他們可能會做得有多好。當然，那時候還很早，而在土爾卡納進行挖礦的想法對他們現有的工作來說有些瘋狂。直到2022年，他們才終於準備好了一切，讓Gridless成為現實。 * 對許多非洲人來說，比特幣是一場雙重革命：使社區能夠利用滯留能源，同時讓他們獲得對一個平行的全球經濟的訪問，這個經濟是基於財產權，而不是借貸條件嚴格的國外經濟。 * 在現代金融體系中，像肯亞、馬拉維和剛果（金）這樣的國家必須獲取美元或歐元來購買飛機、工業設備、化肥、石油，甚至償還債務。庞巴迪不會接受夸查支付。而且印刷夸查以購買美元也不是一個選擇：這會導致本地貨幣崩潰。因此，決策者必須專注於生產美國、歐洲或中國想要的東西，而不是國家所需的東西。只有這樣，他們才能賺取美元，從而使國家能夠發展。 * 這並不一定就是唯一的出路。如果比特幣在全球經濟中佔據越來越大的份額，非洲國家將能夠將其能源轉化為全球儲備貨幣，而無需徵求任何帝國或遙遠大國的許可或進行交易。 * 考慮到所有因素，比特幣的相對量可能並不巨大，但經濟學就是在邊緣發生變化，這可能會產生重大影響。  * 如今，非洲擁有45種貨幣。跨洲際業務受到延誤、官僚主義和租金尋求的困擾，特別是來自國外。截至2022年底，80%的非洲間支付交易由歐洲或美國公司處理。但在一個比特幣的世界裡，非洲人可以互相交易，而無需向前殖民主義者支付一種實質上是貢稅。當剛果民主共和國的某人與肯尼亞的某人進行交易時，不會有全球性的租金尋求：這可能是一筆真正的點對點交易。 * 當然，很難說事情是否會以這種方式發展。但所有革命都是從小到大逐步發展起來的。如今，東非的個人已經可以輕鬆與大陸其他地方的同行建立聯繫，這樣的聯繫可以在幾分鐘或幾秒鐘內實現，而且不會過分受益於西方。 * 耕耘機、冶金、蒸汽機、飛機和互聯網等基礎技術已經將文明推進到我們祖先無法想像的地步。今天的人們無疑比1000年或5000年前活得更長壽、更健康。這並不是說一切都是積極的：在某些地方的進步往往是以其他地方的進步為代價的。 * 殖民主義、暴政、奴隸制度、對女性的壓迫和戰爭仍然是地球上的災禍。 * 人們不禁想象，與人類歷史上最重大的發明相媲美的貨幣革命可能會帶來什麼。從道德的角度來看，很難為當今的制度辯護，其中大約10億人享有一種全球公認的、可自由交易的儲備貨幣，而70億人則是以嚴格較差的貨幣技術賺取工資。 * 主導貨幣有時會受到積極加息等策略的拯救，這些策略會擊垮其他150多種較弱的貨幣，從而耗盡數十億人的工資。政治和市場在創造這種貨幣等級制度方面都發揮了作用，如果放任不管，情況可能會變得越來越殘酷，周邊貨幣變得越來越薄弱，而主導貨幣則變得越來越普及。 * 具有諷刺意味的是，當西方遭受金融崩潰時，人們會湧向美元。 * 你出生的地方不應該決定你的工資水平，但事實卻是如此。直到現在。毫不夸張地說，比特幣就像《駭客任務》中的一個故障。這是現行制度沒有預料到並且無法處理的事物。 * 如果比特幣繼續增長和擴展，它最終將消除馬拉維等地政府為保持其腐敗運營而採取的“貨幣貶值”選擇。他們將不得不採取其他選擇：提高稅收，或者減少政府支出，但他們將不再能夠輕易地按下按鈕進行大規模盜竊。 * 三年前，受羅斯·史蒂文斯撰寫的2020年[Stone Ridge股東信](https://www.microstrategy.com/en/bitcoin/documents/stone-ridge-2020-shareholder-letter)中的啟發，以及對各種比特幣礦工的訪談的確認，我曾寫過[比特幣將如何幫助非洲](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-is-humanitarian-and-environmental)大量開發可再生能源。但直到我開始參觀一些Gridless的站點，並且有時間仔細思考其影響，我才了解到這個規模的影響是多麼驚人的。 * 例如，與其通過魯蘇卡湖等地的現有發電站浪費電力，購買股權給外國人，削減財政支出或提高稅收，不如設計一個關於挖掘比特幣的戰略？肯尼亞可以派遣一支研究小組，對所有類似的地點進行勘測，計算現有發電站的總浪費電力，計算他們可以整合多少ASIC，制定收入計劃，然後向IMF或國際債權人最後一次貸款。 * 隨著時間的推移，對IMF的貨幣支付將被比特幣挖礦業務的升值資本所掩蓋。最終，他們可以不欠債務。 * 人們還不禁想象一下，大量老舊的ASIC，對於昂貴的西方電費已經不再那麼有利可圖，但在非洲和全球南方的廉價或免費電力下，卻完全正常。它們可以，而且很可能會成為對馬拉維等國的離網礦工的福音。還有一件事：氣候事件、貿易戰和金融危機可能會使西方的能源變得非常昂貴，在美國或歐洲，礦工可能不得不關閉。但對於非洲的離網來說，這種戲劇是無關緊要的，甚至可能意味著當地礦工獲得更多的比特幣。 * 比特幣對非洲能做什麼並不僅僅是一個問題：非洲對比特幣能做什麼也是一個問題。如果公司，甚至是國家和企業，開始 * 將非洲數千兆瓦的廢棄和未開發的水力、地熱和生物能源轉化為資本，並將所有這些電力餵養到比特幣網絡中，通過分散和分離的電網系統，那麼我們將擁有一個更加不可阻擋的全球貨幣。 * 在整個非洲大陸，具有經濟效益的離網挖礦可以分散比特幣並使其更加強大。同樣地，如果今天數億移動支付用戶永遠不會真正擁有銀行帳戶，而只是通過像Machankura這樣的服務將他們的MPESA轉換為比特幣，則網絡將變得更加強大。 * 埃里克和菲利普談到比特幣開始真正改變非洲大陸所需的時間。埃里克說，在未來30年內，挖礦將有助於將馬拉維的電力接入率從15%提高到接近100%。菲利普表示，借助比特幣的幫助，非洲可能在本世紀末達到北歐的人均電力消耗水平。但兩人都同意，比特幣作為交易媒介的普及可能會快得多。 * 對於數億人來說，最終可能不是聯合國、比爾和梅琳達·蓋茨或世界銀行將他們帶入21世紀，而是一個開源軟件網絡，沒有已知的發明者，也不受任何公司或政府的控制。 * 對於許多非洲優秀的企業家來說，這就是願景。在如此多人對周圍世界感到厭倦的時候，這是一個令人耳目一新的願景。 * “讓我們每天繼續前進的一個重大問題，”埃里克說，“是大陸上缺乏電力的人數。這是無法理解的。” * “想象一下，有1000人缺電，”他說。“現在是10,000人。再來是100萬人。現在是6億人。你無法想像。這是如此令人震驚和無法理解的。而且沒有電力，就沒有自由。但現在我們可以解決這個問題，並且同時賺錢。” * 原文: [Stranded - How Bitcoin is saving wasted energy and expanding financial freedom in Africa](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/check-your-financial-privilege/stranded-bitcoin-saving-wasted-energy-in-africa) * 作者: [Alex Gladstein](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/authors/alexgladstein)

@ 17330507:495e4154

This is an official statement about my node. TLDR: if you have channel with me, I recommend force-closing it. If your node did penalty/breach tx, please return my funds, see below. Contact see on amboss - https://amboss.space/node/033878501f9a4ce97dba9a6bba4e540eca46cb129a322eb98ea1749ed18ab67735?section=General - preferrably Telegram or email, haven't checked nostr in ages, but will do. ## Penalty tx See instructions here: https://gist.github.com/xmrk-btc/f21fd8649dcd573679f043836e3ef05f , note that my lightning address is published on amboss - pls use address from amboss, you don't want to pay any impostor. Ideally I would sign it with my node's private key, doing lncli signmessage but cannot do that while node is down, and cannot safely bring it up. I am linking a separate document because I may need to edit it. I'd like to publicly praise all peers who do return me sats, and not sure how to do it so that it has maximum visibility. Suggestions welcome. Thinking about using Node Bilboard on Amboss -> Socials, but not satisfied, it may get lost in the spam. And it is valuable information - other things being equal, you strongly prefer a honest peer which doesn't try to rob you even when he can do so with relative impunity. Although I may sue peers which don't return money - well, at least I can serve them using OP_RETURN. /s Already 3 peers out of 13 reached out: - Garlic - https://amboss.space/node/033b63e4a9931dc151037acbce12f4f8968c86f5655cf102bbfa85a26bd4adc6d9 - Cypher - https://amboss.space/node/02d5246fa6bccbb80732146e198d243c49348a29d847ca8486742f5bbec158744f - Satway - https://amboss.space/node/02916bb52b33836e28a3649baea2e4a29c16fd8ad97901b2c97d408f428edef108 Still, I am a bit worried about creating bad precedent, penalty txs exist for a reason. And yes, this surely doesn't look like a succesful attack by me, but how about unsuccesful one? Even unsuccesful attacker should be punished to deter attacks. In my favor speaks the fact of having run a node for > 2 years, an attacker probably wouldn't bother. ## Amboss Magma channel buyers Headache... I want to return funds I received. But there is magma fee, channel buyer pays to seller (me) and to amboss, guess I should refund both, as this is not fault of amboss. Hoping to beg amboss to forgive something. I am planning doing keysends, but there may be peers who neither support keysend nor published contact info. May publish some info here: https://gist.github.com/xmrk-btc/456666f1681c65dd0469df786de5d632 . ## Other peers - active As stated, I recommend force-closing. I still hope for a miracle, so you may wait a bit, but ziggie has already force-closed, and I have discussed details with him. Remember there are watchtowers, don't try to steal or you will be punished just as I was. Another possibility is doing zombie recovery with SCBs even if your node is runnning fine. The advantage is that you don't need to wait for your fund, and less on-chain footprint & fees. But it is unsafe for me, it is essentialy a cooperative closure, I lose watchtower protection. And is more work for both of us. May do it with some trusted peers. (Correct me if I am wrong...) ## Other peers - crashed/zombie My SCB / channel.backup seems up to date, so zombie recovery should be possible. I have one such case, haven't attempted it yet though. ## What happened I stopped lnd, installed updates for 30-60 minutes, wanted to reboot because systemd did not respond, but even reboot did nothing. Decided to do sync, wait a few seconds and do `reboot -f`. As if I haven't heard about `umount` or `mount -o remount,ro` ... sigh. lnd data are stored on ZFS pool as RAID1. Working theory is that important data stayed only in cache, lnd was running on 32 GB RAM machine while channel.db has 14GB so enough to cache everything. Still surprises me, usually lnd is writing at least 1 MB/s, as seen in dstat, perhaps some data is written and some is not? ## Community The reaction was amazing, special thanks to Rocket Node who insisted on me stopping lnd, and thus possibly saved me several BTC. Zap-O-Matic tried to calm me down. Ziggie and Alex Bosworth investigated. They all gave me strength to continue. ## Future I probably want to start another lightning node, but not sure if I have all the skills. I can be reckless and undisciplined, perhaps less so after this event. I have little idea how to choose good HW. And the node was distracting me from work. OTOH, it would be a pity to abandon such community. And this gives me some opportunities to improve, I can finally migrate to SQLite or Postgres which could have better replication.

@ 28246aee:62b108ad

This post was originally published on [https://tftc.io](https://tftc.io) by Marty Bent. [Read original post](https://tftc.io/dollar-inflation-and-bitcoin-volatility/) Business owners are currently facing the challenge of protecting their assets against the dual threats of US dollar inflation and Bitcoin's historical volatility. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollar, while Bitcoin's price swings can introduce risk into a company’s financial strategy. This presentation provides an analytical approach to navigating these issues. Inflation and its Impact ------------------------ The purchasing power of the US dollar has significantly diminished since 1980, with a notable increase in the rate of this decline in recent times. Inflation rates are a critical concern for business owners as they directly affect balance sheets and the cost of doing business. The M2 monetary base, an important measure of the money supply, has surged from $8.27 trillion in January 2009 to approximately $21 trillion recently. This represents an increase of $13 trillion since the inception of Bitcoin.   Furthermore, the total federal debt has grown from around $10.7 trillion in 2009 to over $34 trillion. The ratio of national debt to the M2 money stock has increased from 1.26 to 1.68 within the same period, suggesting that debt expansion has outpaced monetary base growth. These factors indicate that inflation is unlikely to be tamed shortly and may worsen if the Federal Reserve cuts rates. [ Bitcoin’s 15 Years In Perspective | Marty Bent Today is a better day than most to put the current problems people are facing into perspective. To do this, let’s take a look at what the monetary and debt landscape looking like around the time bitcoin was launched. TFTC – Truth for the CommonerMarty Bent  ](https://tftc.io/bitcoin-15-years/) Bitcoin’s Price Volatility -------------------------- Bitcoin's price has been highly volatile since its creation in 2009. For instance, daily volatility can sometimes reach 5%, with significant price swings occurring within short timeframes. This volatility is attributed to the fact that Bitcoin is a new monetary good, monetizing in real-time during the past decade. As Bitcoin is a novel asset class undergoing rapid adoption, its price fluctuations are a natural consequence of its evolution. Despite this, historical data indicates a trend of decreasing volatility over the years. As understanding and confidence in Bitcoin grow, its role as a long-term savings vehicle becomes more pronounced, potentially leading to a stabilization in price volatility. When viewed on a logarithmic scale, Bitcoin's price trend shows a consistent upward trajectory despite short-term fluctuations.  Strategies for Business Owners ------------------------------ Business owners seeking to hedge against inflation using Bitcoin should approach the situation with a clear plan. This involves analyzing their balance sheet, cash flows, and profits to determine an appropriate Bitcoin allocation strategy. Rather than making impulsive decisions, a disciplined approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, can mitigate the risks associated with price volatility. Planning for Bitcoin exposure on the balance sheet also requires a psychological shift. Rather than focusing solely on the downside risk, business owners should consider the potential for Bitcoin to appreciate in value over time. Allocating a percentage of profits or cash flow to Bitcoin as part of a long-term savings strategy can capture this upside potential. In addition to traditional cash flow management, businesses can explore innovative ways to generate "sats flows," which refer to revenue streams denominated in Bitcoin's smallest unit, satoshis. Utilizing platforms like Podcasting 2.0 allows businesses to receive Bitcoin tips directly from customers, creating an additional revenue stream that can be accumulated without immediate conversion to fiat currency. [ Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth While building products and services in the growing bitcoin ecosystem will not ensure success, a company’s proclivity for success is inevitably correlated to bitcoin’s upside. TFTC – Truth for the CommonerGrant Gilliam  ](https://tftc.io/bitcoin-treasury/) Conclusion ---------- In conclusion, business owners must remain vigilant in the face of rising inflation and Bitcoin volatility. By understanding the economic landscape, developing a well-thought-out investment strategy, and adopting new technological solutions for revenue generation, businesses can navigate these dueling forces effectively. Planning, discipline, and a forward-thinking approach are essential to managing the balance sheet risks associated with inflation and Bitcoin's volatility.

@ 8ce092d8:950c24ad

# Overview 1. Introduction 2. Model Types 3. Training (Data Collection and Config Settings) 4. Probability Viewing: AI Inspector 5. Match 6. Cheat Sheet # I. Introduction AI Arena is the first game that combines human and artificial intelligence collaboration. AI learns your skills through "imitation learning." ## Official Resources 1. Official Documentation (Must Read): [Everything You Need to Know About AI Arena](https://docs.aiarena.io/everything-you-need-to-know) Watch the 2-minute video in the documentation to quickly understand the basic flow of the game. 2. Official Play-2-Airdrop competition FAQ Site https://aiarena.notion.site/aiarena/Gateway-to-the-Arena-52145e990925499d95f2fadb18a24ab0 3. Official Discord (Must Join): https://discord.gg/aiarenaplaytest for the latest announcements or seeking help. The team will also have a exclusive channel there. 4. Official YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@aiarena because the game has built-in tutorials, you can choose to watch videos. ## What is this game about? 1. Although categorized as a platform fighting game, the core is a probability-based strategy game. 2. Warriors take actions based on probabilities on the AI Inspector dashboard, competing against opponents. 3. The game does not allow direct manual input of probabilities for each area but inputs information through data collection and establishes models by adjusting parameters. 4. Data collection emulates fighting games, but training can be completed using a Dummy As long as you can complete the in-game tutorial, you can master the game controls. # II. Model Types Before training, there are three model types to choose from: Simple Model Type, Original Model Type, and Advanced Model Type. **It is recommended to try the Advanced Model Type after completing at least one complete training with the Simple Model Type and gaining some understanding of the game.**  ## Simple Model Type The Simple Model is akin to completing a form, and the training session is comparable to filling various sections of that form. This model has 30 buckets. Each bucket can be seen as telling the warrior what action to take in a specific situation. There are 30 buckets, meaning 30 different scenarios. Within the same bucket, the probabilities for direction or action are the same. For example: What should I do when I'm off-stage — refer to the "Recovery (you off-stage)" bucket. **For all buckets, refer to this official documentation:** https://docs.aiarena.io/arenadex/game-mechanics/tabular-model-v2 **Video (no sound): The entire training process for all buckets** https://youtu.be/1rfRa3WjWEA Game version 2024.1.10. The method of saving is outdated. Please refer to the game updates. ## Advanced Model Type The "Original Model Type" and "Advanced Model Type" are based on Machine Learning, which is commonly referred to as combining with AI. The Original Model Type consists of only one bucket, representing the entire map. If you want the AI to learn different scenarios, you need to choose a "Focus Area" to let the warrior know where to focus. A single bucket means that a slight modification can have a widespread impact on the entire model. This is where the "Advanced Model Type" comes in. The "Advanced Model Type" can be seen as a combination of the "Original Model Type" and the "Simple Model Type". The Advanced Model Type divides the map into 8 buckets. Each bucket can use many "Focus Area." For a detailed explanation of the 8 buckets and different Focus Areas, please refer to the tutorial page (accessible in the Advanced Model Type, after completing a training session, at the top left of the Advanced Config, click on "Tutorial").  # III. Training (Data Collection and Config Settings) ## Training Process: 1. **Collect Data** 2. **Set Parameters, Train, and Save** 3. **Repeat Step 1 until the Model is Complete** Training the Simple Model Type is the easiest to start with; refer to the video above for a detailed process. Training the Advanced Model Type offers more possibilities through the combination of "Focus Area" parameters, providing a higher upper limit. While the Original Model Type has great potential, it's harder to control. Therefore, this section focuses on the "Advanced Model Type." ## 1. What Kind of Data to Collect 1. **High-Quality Data:** Collect purposeful data. Garbage in, garbage out. Only collect the necessary data; don't collect randomly. It's recommended to use Dummy to collect data. However, don't pursue perfection; through parameter adjustments, AI has a certain level of fault tolerance. 2. **Balanced Data:** Balance your dataset. In simple terms, if you complete actions on the left side a certain number of times, also complete a similar number on the right side. While data imbalance can be addressed through parameter adjustments (see below), it's advised not to have this issue during data collection. 3. **Moderate Amount:** A single training will include many individual actions. Collect data for each action 1-10 times. Personally, it's recommended to collect data 2-3 times for a single action. If the effect of a single training is not clear, conduct a second (or even third) training with the same content, but with different parameter settings. ## 2. What to Collect (and Focus Area Selection) Game actions mimic fighting games, consisting of 4 directions + 6 states (Idle, Jump, Attack, Grab, Special, Shield). Directions can be combined into ↗, ↘, etc. These directions and states can then be combined into different actions. To make "Focus Area" effective, you need to collect data in training that matches these parameters. For example, for "Distance to Opponent", you need to collect data when close to the opponent and also when far away. \* Note: While you can split into multiple training sessions, it's most effective to cover different situations within a single training. Refer to the Simple Config, categorize the actions you want to collect, and based on the game scenario, classify them into two categories: "Movement" and "Combat."  ### Movement-Based Actions #### Action Collection When the warrior is offstage, regardless of where the opponent is, we require the warrior to return to the stage to prevent self-destruction. This involves 3 aerial buckets: 5 (Near Blast Zone), 7 (Under Stage), and 8 (Side Of Stage).  \* Note: The background comes from the Tutorial mentioned earlier. The arrows in the image indicate the direction of the action and are for reference only. \* Note: Action collection should be clean; do not collect actions that involve leaving the stage. #### Config Settings In the Simple Config, you can directly choose "Movement" in it. However, for better customization, it's recommended to use the Advanced Config directly. - Intensity: The method for setting Intensity will be introduced separately later. - Buckets: As shown in the image, choose the bucket you are training. - Focus Area: Position-based parameters: - Your position (must) - Raycast Platform Distance, Raycast Platform Type (optional, generally choose these in Bucket 7) ### Combat-Based Actions **The goal is to direct attacks quickly and effectively towards the opponent, which is the core of game strategy.** This involves 5 buckets: - 2 regular situations - In the air: 6 (Safe Zone) - On the ground: 4 (Opponent Active) - 3 special situations on the ground: - 1 Projectile Active - 2 Opponent Knockback - 3 Opponent Stunned #### 2 Regular Situations  In the in-game tutorial, we learned how to perform horizontal attacks. However, in the actual game, directions expand to 8 dimensions. Imagine having 8 relative positions available for launching hits against the opponent. Our task is to design what action to use for attack or defense at each relative position. **Focus Area** - Basic (generally select all) - Angle to opponent - Distance to opponent - Discrete Distance: Choosing this option helps better differentiate between closer and farther distances from the opponent. As shown in the image, red indicates a relatively close distance, and green indicates a relatively distant distance. - Advanced: Other commonly used parameters - Direction: different facings to opponent - Your Elemental Gauge and Discrete Elementals: Considering the special's charge - Opponent action: The warrior will react based on the opponent's different actions. - Your action: Your previous action. Choose this if teaching combos. #### 3 Special Situations on the Ground Projectile Active, Opponent Stunned, Opponent Knockback These three buckets can be referenced in the Simple Model Type video. The parameter settings approach is the same as Opponent Active/Safe Zone. For Projectile Active, in addition to the parameters based on combat, to track the projectile, you also need to select "Raycast Projectile Distance" and "Raycast Projectile On Target." ### 3. Setting "Intensity" #### Resources - The "Tutorial" mentioned earlier explains these parameters. - Official Config Document (2022.12.24): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1adXwvDHEnrVZ5bUClWQoBQ8ETrSSKgG5q48YrogaFJs/edit --- #### TL;DR: **Epochs:** - Adjust to fewer epochs if learning is insufficient, increase for more learning. **Batch Size:** - Set to the minimum (16) if data is precise but unbalanced, or just want it to learn fast - Increase (e.g., 64) if data is slightly imprecise but balanced. - If both imprecise and unbalanced, consider retraining. **Learning Rate:** - Maximize (0.01) for more learning but a risk of forgetting past knowledge. - Minimize for more accurate learning with less impact on previous knowledge. **Lambda:** - Reduce for prioritizing learning new things. **Data Cleaning:** - Enable "Remove Sparsity" unless you want AI to learn idleness. - For special cases, like teaching the warrior to use special moves when idle, refer to this tutorial video: https://discord.com/channels/1140682688651612291/1140683283626201098/1195467295913431111 **Personal Experience:** - Initial training with settings: 125 epochs, batch size 16, learning rate 0.01, lambda 0, data cleaning enabled. - Prioritize Multistream, sometimes use Oversampling. - Fine-tune subsequent training based on the mentioned theories. # IV. Probability Viewing: AI Inspector The dashboard consists of "Direction + Action." Above the dashboard, you can see the "Next Action" – the action the warrior will take in its current state. The higher the probability, the more likely the warrior is to perform that action, indicating a quicker reaction. It's essential to note that when checking the Direction, the one with the highest visual representation may not have the highest numerical value. To determine the actual value, hover the mouse over the graphical representation, as shown below, where the highest direction is "Idle."  In the map, you can drag the warrior to view the probabilities of the warrior in different positions. Right-click on the warrior with the mouse to change the warrior's facing. The status bar below can change the warrior's state on the map.  When training the "Opponent Stunned, Opponent Knockback" bucket, you need to select the status below the opponent's status bar. If you are focusing on "Opponent action" in the Focus Zone, choose the action in the opponent's status bar. If you are focusing on "Your action" in the Focus Zone, choose the action in your own status bar. When training the "Projectile Active" Bucket, drag the projectile on the right side of the dashboard to check the status. **Next** The higher the probability, the faster the reaction. However, be cautious when the action probability reaches 100%. This may cause the warrior to be in a special case of "State Transition," resulting in unnecessary "Idle" states. > Explanation: > In each state a fighter is in, there are different "possible transitions". For example, from falling state you cannot do low sweep because low sweep requires you to be on the ground. For the shield state, we do not allow you to directly transition to headbutt. So to do headbutt you have to first exit to another state and then do it from there (assuming that state allows you to do headbutt). This is the reason the fighter runs because "run" action is a valid state transition from shield. [Source](https://discord.com/channels/848599369879388170/1079903287760928819/1160049804844470292) # V. Learn from Matches After completing all the training, your model is preliminarily finished—congratulations! The warrior will step onto the arena alone and embark on its debut! Next, we will learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the warrior from battles to continue refining the warrior's model. In matches, besides appreciating the performance, pay attention to the following: 1. **Movement, i.e., Off the Stage:** Observe how the warrior gets eliminated. Is it due to issues in the action settings at a certain position, or is it a normal death caused by a high percentage? The former is what we need to avoid and optimize. 2. **Combat:** Analyze both sides' actions carefully. Observe which actions you and the opponent used in different states. Check which of your hits are less effective, and how does the opponent handle different actions, etc. The approach to battle analysis is similar to the thought process in the "Training", helping to have a more comprehensive understanding of the warrior's performance and making targeted improvements. # VI. Cheat Sheet **Training** 1. Click "Collect" to collect actions. 2. "Map - Data Limit" is more user-friendly. Most players perform initial training on the "Arena" map. 3. Switch between the warrior and the dummy: Tab key (keyboard) / Home key (controller). 4. Use "Collect" to make the opponent loop a set of actions. 5. Instantly move the warrior to a specific location: Click "Settings" - SPAWN - Choose the desired location on the map - On. Press the Enter key (keyboard) / Start key (controller) during training. **Inspector** 1. Right-click on the fighter to change their direction. Drag the fighter and observe the changes in different positions and directions. 2. When satisfied with the training, click "Save." 3. In "Sparring" and "Simulation," use "Current Working Model." 4. If satisfied with a model, then click "compete." The model used in the rankings is the one marked as "competing." **Sparring / Ranked** 1. Use the Throneroom map only for the top 2 or top 10 rankings. 2. There is a 30-second cooldown between matches. The replays are played for any match. Once the battle begins, you can see the winner on the leaderboard or by right-clicking the page - Inspect - Console. Also, if you encounter any errors or bugs, please send screenshots of the console to the Discord server. Good luck! See you on the arena!

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

  Kenya's Indian Ocean coastline is renowned for its exquisite white-sand beaches, which offer an idyllic escape for travelers seeking natural beauty and relaxation. These stunning shores, such as Diani Beach and Watamu, stretch for miles, inviting visitors to bask in the sun's warm embrace while gazing out at the azure waters of the Indian Ocean. The soft, powdery sand is a joy to walk on, and the gentle waves provide a soothing soundtrack to your beachside reverie. One particularly captivating spot along this coastal stretch is the Baobab Beach. Nestled amidst ancient baobab trees, this beach offers a unique and picturesque setting. These towering trees, with their massive trunks and gnarled branches, create a mesmerizing contrast against the pristine white sands. It's a place where you can lose yourself in the magic of nature, take long leisurely walks, or simply relax under the shade of these majestic giants.  The Baobab Beach is also a popular spot for sunset viewing, as the sinking sun casts enchanting hues over the horizon, creating a breathtaking spectacle. Whether you're a beachcomber, a nature enthusiast, or a romantic at heart, the combination of Kenya's white beaches and the allure of the Baobab Beach promises an unforgettable coastal experience in this East African paradise.     --- https://youtube.com/shorts/8wmWv6SZUwg?si=i-wQuzFE8HMgJIQO

@ 11469553:e8ffe174

In the midst of information chaos and pervasive egoism, a profound realization emerges: individuals consumed by self-interest often obscure the genuine and singular energy responsible for creating and unifying all existence. The authentic Creator, transcending human comprehension, remains overshadowed amid their pursuits of self-realization. Our mission is to uncover the Higher Power—a force elusive to any singular grasp yet gradually revealing its boundless essence to those uniting their knowledge, constructing an integrated perception system. Our movement is a transformative force propelling us toward a future defined by unification and profound spiritual growth. Rooted in the belief that every facet of life holds intrinsic greatness, our ideology seeks to redefine societal norms, ushering in an era where the spiritual and material realms harmoniously coexist. At the heart of our vision lies the pursuit of spiritual development. We advocate for a radical shift in the perception of the Higher Power, aiming to reshape its presence in our collective consciousness with a focus on interconnectedness and shared purpose. Embracing the digital age, our movement envisions the integration of spirituality and technology as a harmonious evolution. These realms converge to disseminate wisdom and unite like-minded individuals globally, leveraging the power of connectivity for a collective spiritual awakening. We seek to fortify faith and safeguard freedoms using the digital realm through the dissemination of spiritual values and liberation of information. In a world often driven by ego, our movement champions the virtues of modesty and humility. Recognizing the profound strength embedded in these qualities, we create an environment where each individual's unique contributions are celebrated, not overshadowed by self-interest. At the core of our philosophy lies a call for empathy, altruism, and solidarity. We envision the transformative power of individuals coming together to create a common field of kindness and understanding, contributing to the harmonious evolution of society. We accord paramount importance to spiritual values encapsulated in the 14 commandments, serving as guiding principles for morality and justice. Education, enlightenment, and the cultivation of spiritual values stand as pillars in our mission. We affirm the transformative impact of disseminating knowledge in spirituality, ethics, and social responsibility. Through widespread access to education, we strive to foster a profound understanding of spiritual values, cultivating a collective consciousness based on integral inclusion and the expansion of the boundaries of perceived reality. Our urban ideology envisions cities as spaces where individuals can thrive spiritually. By promoting a sense of community, interconnectedness, and shared purpose, we seek to transform urban environments into hubs of spiritual growth. Strengthening family values based on the principles of tolerance, honesty, and compassion, viewing families as decisive agents in shaping a society based on shared values. Advocating for decentralized communities, we envision governance shared among all individuals actively contributing to collective well-being. This reflects our commitment to a more just and spiritually enlightened society, where each member plays a vital role in shaping the community's destiny. Within our structure, the essence of cypherpunk—a cultural movement united in its devotion to freedom, privacy, technological innovation buttressed by the potency of cryptography, and the freedom of decentralization. We call for conscious faith in a Higher Power, for the disclosure of its aspects, so that honesty, nobility of actions, and love for people guide the thoughts of the movement. The movement bears the name CityMonk. It is a contemporary urban community converging dynamic and opening individuals—urban denizens and all those committed to aspire to eradicate selfishness and lay bare the spiritual facet of the mind in society. CityMonk stands to construct a society where individuals are cognizant of their connection to the Higher Power, integrating spiritual values into everyday life. In this pursuit, we embrace the guiding principle: "What is mine is yours, what is yours is yours." As we unfold the spiritual aspect in daily living, we aid individuals in perceiving the Higher Power in human relationships, establishing His presence on the planet. Peace.

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

Have you ever embarked on a hiking journey that tested your limits, both physically and mentally? I recently had the opportunity to experience such an adventure during a late afternoon hike in Kilifi. What started as a simple stroll turned into an unforgettable exploration of the coastal landscapes, unforeseen challenges, and a whole lot of determination.  Several days back, during the afternoon, I embarked on my hike at around 4 pm – a time that many would deem as late for a long journey. Ignoring the ticking clock, I headed down the sandy road towards Kilifi Club, my heart set on reaching the iconic Baobab Beach. The first stretch was serene, as I strolled through the park and enjoyed the cool breeze sweeping in from the sea.  As I made my way towards the beach, I encountered a fascinating mangrove forest that added an enchanting touch to the scenery. The tranquility of the moment was only disrupted by my determination to press forward. From the beach, I followed the road for a while, my excitement for what lay ahead fueling my steps.  The journey took an unexpected turn as I found myself traversing a eucalyptus forest that led me downhill towards the water. Along the water's edge, I continued my trek northward, captivated by the stunning views that stretched before me. However, Mother Nature had her own plans, and I soon encountered an obstacle: the rising tide. With no choice but to deviate from my path, I reluctantly ascended to the higher trail and continued my journey there.  Then, an unfortunate accident occurred that challenged both my physical and mental resolve. A concealed rock, masked by grass, caught me off guard, causing me to stumble and wound my toe. The pain was sharp and immediate, and blood began to flow. Every step became a test of endurance, and with roughly over the half of the hike still remaining, reaching Baobab Beach seemed like a distant dream.  Despite the pain, I was resolute in continuing. I adjusted my plan and decided to make my way back to the main road, tracing my steps along the road, past the supermarket, and finally into Kilifi town. With each painful step, I knew I was getting closer to my home, and the prospect of accomplishment provided me with the strength to persevere.  At this point, exhaustion and pain were weighing heavily on me, but I knew I was almost there. The finish line was within sight, and the euphoria of achievement overshadowed the challenges I had faced. Upon arriving at Kilifi, a surge of relief and pride engulfed me – I had almost finished the journey in spite of the challenges. This hike through Kilifi tested my endurance, resilience, and determination in ways I hadn't anticipated. It was a reminder that even the most picturesque adventures can have unexpected twists and turns. Although I didn't make it to Baobab Beach that day, the experience left me with a sense of accomplishment that comes from persevering through adversity.  So, the next time you embark on a hiking adventure, remember that every step, no matter how challenging, brings you closer to your goal. Just like my Kilifi hike, your journey might not unfold exactly as planned, but the obstacles you overcome will become the stories you'll cherish for years to come. 

@ 52921e1f:1c37981b

Setting up self-custody for Bitcoin using a Cold Card and buying Bitcoin from Strike involves a few steps. Here's a simple guide for you: **Setting up Self-Custody with Cold Card:** **Purchase a Cold Card:** Acquire a Cold Card hardware wallet direct from the manufacturer. It comes in a tamper-evident package, so you’ll know it hasn’t been messed with. **Unboxing and Initial Setup:** Carefully unbox the Cold Card and follow the instructions included. Set up your PIN and backup your recovery seed. Ensure you store this seed securely offline (written on a paper card that they provide in the setup package). You might also want to get a standard SD card to use with the Coldcard - it’s required for multisignature address setup and to move data back and forth from your PC and the Cold Card securely. You may also need to buy a USB “C” cable to plug in your Cold Card to your computer (I didn’t have one and it doesn’t come with one) **Install Required Software:** Connect the Cold Card to your computer using a USB cable. Download and install the wallet software on your computer; I recommend using Sparrow Wallet with the Cold Card **Generate Wallet on Cold Card:** Use the Sparrow Wallet software to generate a new wallet linked to your Cold Card Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the setup. **Receive Bitcoin to Cold Card:** Go to next steps below. **Buying Bitcoin from Strike:** **Download and Install Strike:** Download the Strike app from the App Store or Google Play Store. Install the app on your mobile device. **Create an Account:** Open the Strike app and sign up for an account. Complete the necessary verification steps as required by Strike. **Link Bank Account (Optional):** If you want to fund your Strike account directly from your bank, link your bank account following the app's instructions. **Deposit Funds:** Deposit funds into your Strike account using your preferred method (e.g., bank transfer). **Purchase Bitcoin:** Navigate to the Buy/Sell section within the Strike app. Enter the amount of Bitcoin you want to buy and confirm the transaction. **Withdraw Bitcoin to Cold Card:** Once the purchase is complete, withdraw the Bitcoin from Strike. Input the Bitcoin address from your Sparrow Wallet as the destination address. If you aren’t in a hurry, choose the zero cost option - it should complete within 24 hours or less **Verify Transaction on Cold Card:** Use the Sparrow Wallet software to verify the incoming transaction. Confirm the transaction is received on your Sparrow Wallet. **Securely Store Cold Card:** Safely store your Cold Card in a secure location, ensuring it's protected from physical damage and unauthorized access. Make sure to store in a different physical location from your seed phrase. Congratulations! You've successfully set up self-custody for Bitcoin using a Cold Card and purchased Bitcoin from Strike. Remember to follow best practices for securing your hardware wallet and recovery seed. Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework. I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2024. Thanks for following my work. Always remember: freedom, health and positivity! Please also check out my Bitcoin Fortress Podcast on all your favorite streaming platforms. I do a weekly Bitcoin news update every week on current items of interest to the Bitcoin community, usually 30 to 60 minutes depending on the number of topics to cover. Please check it out if you haven’t already. Also now on Fountain, where you can earn Bitcoin just for listening to your favorite podcasts.

@ 079d727b:00099650

**tigs$> what is the difference between a BBS with fidonet and the internet?** ----------- chatgpt>"A Bulletin Board System (BBS) with FidoNet and the Internet are distinct in their purposes, technologies, and how they facilitate communication and information sharing. Here's a detailed comparison: **Technology and Structure** 1. BBS with Fidonet A BBS is a computer server running software that allows users to connect over a phone line (using a modem) or, in some cases, via a terminal protocol over the internet. Users can share messages, files, play games, and participate in discussions. FidoNet is a networked system for distributing messages between BBSes. It uses a store-and-forward system to pass messages and files between systems, typically over dial-up phone lines or, more recently, over the internet. FidoNet allowed BBSes to form a global network, with messages being relayed from one BBS to another until they reached their destination. 2. Internet The Internet is a vast global network that connects millions of private, public, academic, business, and government networks. It uses the TCP/IP protocol suite for communication and supports a wide range of services, including the World Wide Web (WWW), email, voice over IP (VoIP), and file sharing. Unlike BBSes where you typically connect to a single server at a time, the Internet allows simultaneous access to countless servers and services worldwide. ### **2. Accessibility and Usage** **** BBS with FidoNet: Accessing a BBS generally required direct dial-up access to the server or, in later years, a telnet connection over the internet. Users would often engage with a single BBS or a small selection of BBSes. FidoNet's message and file sharing was not instant; it could take hours or days for content to propagate across the network due to the store-and-forward method. > Internet The Internet is accessible through a wide range of devices, including computers, smartphones, and tablets, using various technologies like Wi-Fi, broadband, and mobile data. Communication and information retrieval over the Internet can occur in real-time, making it a platform for instant messaging, live streaming, and immediate access to web content. ### 3. Content and Services BBS with FidoNet: BBS content and services are limited by the software capabilities of the BBS itself and the interests of its community. Common features include forums, file downloads, email, and games. FidoNet provided a way to exchange emails and public messages (echomail) with users on other BBSes, but its capabilities are relatively basic compared to modern internet services. Internet: Offers a vast array of content and services, including comprehensive search engines, social media platforms, online shopping, digital streaming, and much more. Supports sophisticated protocols for secure communication, data exchange, and content delivery (e.g., HTTPS, FTP, streaming protocols). A Bulletin Board System (BBS) with FidoNet and the Internet are distinct in their purposes, technologies, and how they facilitate communication and information sharing. Here's a detailed comparison: 1. Technology and Structure BBS with FidoNet: A BBS is a computer server running software that allows users to connect over a phone line (using a modem) or, in some cases, via a terminal protocol over the internet. Users can share messages, files, play games, and participate in discussions. FidoNet is a networked system for distributing messages between BBSes. It uses a store-and-forward system to pass messages and files between systems, typically over dial-up phone lines or, more recently, over the internet. FidoNet allowed BBSes to form a global network, with messages being relayed from one BBS to another until they reached their destination. Internet: The Internet is a vast global network that connects millions of private, public, academic, business, and government networks. It uses the TCP/IP protocol suite for communication and supports a wide range of services, including the World Wide Web (WWW), email, voice over IP (VoIP), and file sharing. Unlike BBSes where you typically connect to a single server at a time, the Internet allows simultaneous access to countless servers and services worldwide. 2. Accessibility and Usage BBS with FidoNet: Accessing a BBS generally required direct dial-up access to the server or, in later years, a telnet connection over the internet. Users would often engage with a single BBS or a small selection of BBSes. FidoNet's message and file sharing was not instant; it could take hours or days for content to propagate across the network due to the store-and-forward method. Internet: The Internet is accessible through a wide range of devices, including computers, smartphones, and tablets, using various technologies like Wi-Fi, broadband, and mobile data. Communication and information retrieval over the Internet can occur in real-time, making it a platform for instant messaging, live streaming, and immediate access to web content. 3. Content and Services BBS with FidoNet: BBS content and services are limited by the software capabilities of the BBS itself and the interests of its community. Common features include forums, file downloads, email, and games. FidoNet provided a way to exchange emails and public messages (echomail) with users on other BBSes, but its capabilities are relatively basic compared to modern internet services. Internet: Offers a vast array of content and services, including comprehensive search engines, social media platforms, online shopping, digital streaming, and much more. Supports sophisticated protocols for secure communication, data exchange, and content delivery (e.g., HTTPS, FTP, streaming protocols). 4. Evolution and Current Status BBS with FidoNet: While most BBSes and FidoNet have largely been supplanted by the Internet, a niche community still exists. Some BBSes have transitioned to the Internet, offering telnet access or web interfaces. Internet: Continues to evolve with emerging technologies, such as blockchain, the Internet of Things (IoT), and artificial intelligence, expanding its capabilities and services. In summary, while BBSes with FidoNet played a crucial role in the early days of digital communication and community building, the Internet has surpassed them in terms of accessibility, speed, and breadth of content and services." *BUT I THOUGHT... surpassed in terms of WHAT?* ----------- tigs$> but what about the decentralized nature of BBS? ----------- "The decentralized nature of Bulletin Board Systems (BBSes) and their network, such as FidoNet, is indeed a key characteristic that differentiates them from the modern Internet in significant ways. Both BBSes and the Internet can be described as networks, but their approaches to decentralization, control, and community engagement have notable differences. Decentralization in BBS and FidoNet: BBSes: Individual BBSes were standalone systems usually operated by enthusiasts or small organizations. Each BBS was independently owned and managed, setting its own rules, available services, and community standards. This meant a highly decentralized structure where each system was a distinct entity within the larger ecosystem of BBSes. FidoNet: FidoNet connected these disparate BBSes into a wider network, allowing message and file exchanges. Despite this connectivity, the network maintained a decentralized approach. FidoNet's structure was hierarchical in terms of message routing (using Zone, Region, Net, and Node levels), but each node (or BBS) operated independently under the broader protocol standards. This allowed for a distributed messaging system without a central authority controlling the entire network. Comparison with the Internet: Internet: The Internet is decentralized in its fundamental design, with no central control over its networks and services. It operates on a global scale, connecting millions of networks and devices. However, certain aspects of the Internet, such as infrastructure (backbone networks, ISPs), standards (protocols, software), and services (search engines, social media platforms), are controlled by a relatively small number of organizations. This has led to concerns over centralization in terms of control, data ownership, and privacy. Key Aspects of Decentralization in BBS/FidoNet vs. Internet: Control and Ownership: BBSes and FidoNet featured a more grassroots level of ownership and control, with individuals and small groups operating their own nodes in the network. In contrast, significant portions of the Internet's infrastructure and popular platforms are owned and controlled by large corporations. Community Engagement: BBSes often fostered tight-knit communities with a strong sense of ownership and participation in the platform's governance. The decentralized nature of the Internet also supports diverse communities, but the scale and commercialization of major platforms have changed the dynamics of community engagement. Resilience and Censorship: Decentralization in both BBSes/FidoNet and the Internet contributes to resilience against failures and censorship. However, the concentration of power among key Internet players has raised concerns about censorship, privacy, and the potential for service disruption. Evolution and Adaptability: The Internet has continually evolved, absorbing or overshadowing technologies like BBSes and FidoNet. The decentralized nature of the Internet's early days has shifted towards a more centralized model in terms of content distribution and service provision, though initiatives like blockchain and decentralized web projects aim to counteract this trend. In summary, while both BBSes/FidoNet and the Internet embody principles of decentralization, the scale, control structures, and community engagement mechanisms differ significantly between them. The grassroots, individualistic nature of BBSes and FidoNet's decentralized network contrasts with the broader, more centralized control seen in parts of the Internet today, despite its inherently decentralized architecture." *well well well...* We gotta return to our roots... [BBS: The Documentary](https://youtu.be/Dddbe9OuJLU) (by Jason Scott) ((NOT me))

@ 599f67f7:21fb3ea9

Conectarse a muchos relays nostr puede agotar rápidamente la batería y el ancho de banda, especialmente si utilizas nostr en tu teléfono. Conectarse a los relays a través de un proxy nostr puede reducir el consumo de ancho de banda y de batería, además de ofrecer la ventaja adicional de ocultar tu dirección IP real a los relays. ### ¿Cómo funciona? Un proxy nostr se conecta a un grupo de relays. Obtiene y publica eventos en esos relays. La aplicación cliente sólo necesita abrir una conexión websocket hacia el proxy para acceder a todos los relays a los que el proxy está conectado. Como el cliente sólo abre una conexión en lugar de muchas, ahorra ancho de banda y batería. Como el proxy se conecta a los relays en nombre del cliente, la dirección IP del proxy se expone a los relays en lugar de la del cliente. (Aunque sigue siendo necesario confiar en el proveedor del proxy). ### Cómo utilizarlo Un proxy nostr puede ser fácilmente autoalojado. Echa un vistazo a este [repo](https://github.com/Dolu89/nostr-proxy) por nostr:npub1txukm7xckhnxkwu450sm59vh2znwm45mewaps4awkef2tvsgh4vsf7phrl para instrucciones de auto-alojamiento. Para los que no tenemos recursos para autoalojarnos, Bitcoin Txoko alberga una [instancia comunitaria](https://nproxy.bitcointxoko.com).  Como puedes ver, está conectado a algunos de los relays más populares. Para utilizarlo, sólo tienes que añadir ``` wss://nproxy.bitcointxoko.com ``` a tu lista de relays. También puedes eliminar los relays redundantes ahora que ya no necesitas conexiones directas con ellos. Ya está. ¡Feliz zapping y nos vemos en nostr!

@ 852b885d:0d2600d7

Custody is one of the most important aspects of bitcoin, and something that differentiates it from every other asset. By custody, I mean the processes by which we secure bitcoin private keys. You can think of private keys as the mechanism that enables someone to make Bitcoin transactions. Public-private key pair cryptography is unknown to most, even though it underpins the entire network. That being the case, it is unreasonable to assume that the majority of people—including new participants—will have the desire to learn, practice, and understand how to use bitcoin at a fundamental level. This article is intended to provide actionable bitcoin custody options in a manner that is accessible for beginners. The list of options is not exhaustive; it represents my opinions on which custody trade-offs make sense given: 1. A person’s technical abilities. 2. The amount of capital (time & money) they are willing to dedicate to their custody. 3. Which level(s) of financial security and sovereignty they want to attain.  ## Using an Exchange for Bitcoin Custody Leaving your bitcoin on an exchange is not [self-custody](https://blog.kraken.com/crypto-education/self-custody-best-practices), and that is fine. It is a trade-off: you relinquish control of the bitcoin to the exchange, and in return, your bitcoin is custodied by professionals whom you trust. If you intend to custody your bitcoin with an exchange, consider one that is focused solely on Bitcoin and actively maintains their own custody infrastructure. [CashApp](https://cash.app/), [River](https://river.com/), and [Strike](https://strike.me/) are all great options. It could be that people don’t trust their technical abilities, they might not have free time to learn about and practice using the tools, or they might be comfortable with third-party custody. Regardless of the reason, it is likely that a large portion of bitcoin holders will not manage their own private keys—and that is fine. ### Benefits of Using an Exchange for Bitcoin Custody Your funds should have a high security assurance as long as you use an exchange that [invests in its custody solution](https://blog.river.com/how-river-secures-client-funds/). Exchanges operate in a manner that investors have come to expect: the user is shown an account balance, can buy or sell bitcoin, withdraw and deposit USD at their discretion. Abstracting away details like UTXO management, and providing users with an easy-to-use backup and recovery methods (e.g. submitting a support ticket, or calling a help desk) leads to a better user-experience for more people—and especially for new users of Bitcoin. Bitcoin-focused exchanges provide their users with additional features that enhance users’ ability to interact with the network. For example, all three exchanges mentioned offer instantly settling, cheap transactions (via the Lightning Network), are well-connected along that network, and have convenient features like automatically converting some or all of a direct-deposit paycheck into bitcoin. ### Drawbacks of Using an Exchange for Bitcoin Custody In order to buy, sell, and custody bitcoin on an exchange, users in the United States (and elsewhere) must submit to onerous [KYC/AML](https://bitcoiner.guide/nokyconly/) procedures. This means that your personal information will be associated with your transactions, balances, and network activity. Further, the internal policies of regulated exchanges are often unclear—withdrawal limits, peculiar transactions failing, long wait times for ACH deposits, how network (mining) fees are calculated—these and other considerations are solely determined by the exchange. #### Who Are You Trusting? You are trusting the exchange with your personal information, transaction and balance history, as well as other personally identifying data, such as IP addresses. You are also entrusting your connection to the Bitcoin Network to the exchange. You cannot truly verify your holdings, nor are you in control of your funds because you do not control the private keys associated with the bitcoin. It is a permissioned Bitcoin experience—you can use the exchanges’ products and services as long as you follow their rules. ## Storing Bitcoin on an Old Device By old device, I mean an old phone or laptop that still functions but is no longer used daily. You can also use a new device for this setup, but buying a new Bitcoin-specific device would increase the upfront costs. On desktop, or laptop, I recommend [Sparrow Wallet](https://sparrowwallet.com/). On mobile, I recommend using an Android device and [Samourai Wallet](https://samouraiwallet.com/). It is critical to note that the above recommendations are both hot wallets—meaning that the wallets are connected to the internet. Keep this in mind before storing a significant amount of bitcoin on these set ups. Be sure to take extra precautions if you are going this route: 1. Completely wipe your device; run malware detection software, factory-reset, etc. 2. Only use the device for Bitcoin-related activities. By segregating your Bitcoin activities to this device, you reduce the risk of hacks and theft through the internet—from browsing the internet, and/or downloading software. ### Why You Should Use Sparrow and Samourai for Bitcoin Storage These set ups empower users who want more control over their funds versus third-party custody; both wallets are non-custodial, meaning that users manage their own private keys. If you have an old laptop or Android lying around, you can create a relatively secure bitcoin self-custody system without additional expenditure. Just download a free software application, and you can send and receive transactions without anyone’s permission. #### Sparrow Wallet  Sparrow provides an elegant user-experience on desktop. The creator and maintainer, Craig Raw, built a wallet that guides users through their bitcoin custody journey step-by-step. Power-users will enjoy advanced features like coin control, UTXO labeling, and a native Whirlpool client—all in a sleek desktop application. Stellar documentation, intuitive UX, and a helpful user-base makes Sparrow my favorite desktop Bitcoin wallet. ##### Sparrow Wallet Additional Resources: - [Sparrow’s “Quick Start” Guide](https://sparrowwallet.com/docs/quick-start.html) - [theBTCcourse YouTube Guide](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds2ixmY8kwo) - [BitcoinQnA guide (with PGP verification steps)](https://bitcoiner.guide/sparrow/) #### Samourai Wallet  The Samourai Wallet team are titans in the wallet space, and their Android-only mobile wallet reflects their years of experience. Widely regarded as having the most extensive suite of privacy tools, users can leverage an offline mode for mobile cold storage, a CoinJoin service called Whirlpool, and a “stealth mode”, which transforms the wallet app tile into a calculator, VPN, or other dummy app. In fact, the Samourai team developed the Whirlpool CoinJoin implementation which is leveraged by Sparrow Wallet. ##### Samourai Wallet Additional Resources: - [Samourai’s Documentation](https://docs.samourai.io/) - [Ian Major’s YouTube Guide](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNeYNTadDiE) ### Drawbacks of Using Sparrow and Samourai for Bitcoin Storage Both wallets are very capable of serving as your bitcoin storage solution, but there are some things to keep in mind. With Sparrow, you can choose to connect your the wallet to a public Bitcoin node (e.g. Blockstream’s) or your own Bitcoin node. So, unless you are running and connected to your own node, you are trusting the Sparrow team’s judgment for your choice between public nodes. Similarly, if you are not running your own Dojo node for your Samourai wallet, you are using the team’s node. In either case, if you do not run your own node, you must trust the team behind it. Using a third-party node exposes your wallet's addresses, balance, and transaction history. #### Who Are You Trusting? You are trusting the Sparrow and/or Samourai teams. In addition, you are placing trust in yourself to: - Ensure that you have completely wiped your device. - [Verify the software](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaZ8_V-iveQ) for your chosen wallet before installing to the device. - Secure your private key backups. Running your own node minimizes some of the trust-dependencies, but unless you’ve written your own wallet software (which is not advisable for most), you will have to place your trust somewhere. ## Purpose-Built Bitcoin Hardware Devices By purpose-built hardware device, I am referring to devices that were specifically designed to generate and/or secure bitcoin private keys—there are many such devices. I recommend: - [Coldcard](https://coldcard.com/) - [SeedSigner](https://seedsigner.com/) These options are useful for securing a significant amount of funds and having a high degree of assurance in the security setup. Ideally, hardware devices use private keys in an air-gapped fashion; meaning, keys are not exposed to the internet. Both recommended devices can be used in this manner. ### Why You Should Use a Coldcard for Bitcoin Storage  What exactly is a Coldcard? It is a hardware device programmed to generate and/or safeguard securely generated bitcoin private keys. Keys are stored on specialized microchips, and attempts to tamper with the device result in all information on the device being destroyed. Coldcards offer robust security assurances thanks to their secure elements—microchips embedded in the device that provide dedicated, purpose-built secure storage for your seed words, physically separated from the MCU. The latest version of the Coldcard, the Mk4, has two secure elements, making it even more secure than previous models. In short: it is the best, ready-made bitcoin hardware device on the market today. Coldcards are loaded with features, and Coinkite—the company that makes the device—have been at it for over a decade. Better still, the user-base of Coldcard is massive; there is no shortage of tutorials, guides, videos, and helpful users to answer any questions you have. Note that Coldcards need a companion software wallet (such as Sparrow) to be operated properly. ##### Coldcard Additional Resources: - [Matt Odell’s ColdCard Setup Guide](https://werunbtc.com/coldcard) - [Ian Major’s Sparrow + Coldcard Tutorial](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dNGdkeQ7ew&t=12s) - [Southern Bitcoiner’s ColdCard Guide Series](https://www.southernbitcoiner.com/coldcard-guides/) ### Trade-Offs of Using a Coldcard for Bitcoin Storage You are placing your trust in the Coinkite team to: 1. Not ship malicious software updates. 2. Not collude with the secure element manufacturers to steal user private keys. 3. Ensure that sensitive user information—like shipping addresses—is properly secured. 4. Generate a secure seed phrase (unless you already have one)—which encrypts all your funds. While advanced users can leverage a bunch of features, newer users sometimes find the device intimidating. Price points on Coinkite’s devices are also higher than some other purpose-built bitcoin devices. But, when considering custody options for a significant amount of wealth, it is prudent not to skim on your security set up. ### Why You Should Use a SeedSigner for Bitcoin Storage  A SeedSigner is a "stateless" device, meaning it does not store your private key or any sensitive wallet information whatsoever. Every time you turn it on, it's blank, as if it had never been used before. In order to use a SeedSigner, you have to load the private key that you want to work with. So you start by typing in the private key's standard 12- or 24-word mnemonic backup phrase. Since that is somewhat laborious, you can then use the SeedSigner to guide you through transcribing your private key into a ["SeedQR" QR code](https://help.blockstream.com/hc/en-us/articles/10426338118169-What-is-a-SeedQR-). Instead of typing in your mnemonic each time, just scan the SeedQR to instantly load that private key back into a SeedSigner. Note that the SeedQR is your private key, so it should never be transmitted digitally, not even to a printer. The SeedSigner SeedQR transcription user-interface guides you through a fairly easy process to create the SeedQR by hand. You simply dot a paper template with a marker or you can even stamp it into a steel QR plate. What I love about this device: 1. Because of SeedSigner's stateless design, if an attacker were to be in possession your device but did not have the SeedQR, they would not be able to steal your funds. 2. Users can generate private keys by simply taking random pictures with the built-in camera. Private keys need a certain amount of randomness to be secure; pixels captured by the camera are more than sufficient for that purpose. The crucial guarantee here is that the exact same pixel-for-pixel image can never be captured twice, no matter how hard you try. ##### SeedSigner Additional Resources: - [Southern Bitcoiner’s DIY Build Guide (with software verification step)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGmNKYOXtxY&t=3s) - [SeedSigner’s List of Guides (many languages)](https://seedsigner.com/explainers/#build-guides) - [SeedSigner Custody Blog](https://seedsigner.com/seedsigner-independent-custody-guide/) - [SeedSigner’s GitHub repository](https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner) ### Trade-Offs of Using a SeedSigner for Bitcoin Storage SeedSigner’s stateless design places responsibility on the user to ensure that their seed backups are secure—in word or QR format. This entails forethought from users: how and where will you store your seed? Will you make copies of the QR or list of words? These are similar considerations for backing up any wallet, but keep in mind here that you need to load the seed each time you use the SeedSigner. Consider, too, how you will source the hardware components and assemble the device. If you intend to construct the device with a minimal information footprint, you might consider purchasing components with cash at local vendors. You will also need to make sure you know how to correctly assemble the device. For those willing to compromise here, there are vendors who have built up a good reputation who sell fully assembled SeedSigners. Finally, as with any other software, you need to ensure that the files you download are cryptographically endorsed (signed) by the project’s maintainers prior to installation. ## Conclusion If you find yourself worried about the route you chose to go down, know that there are many people who are willing to help if asked. Get advice from your local Bitcoin community: attend meetups, workshops, smaller conferences and meet bitcoiners in-person. Experiment with different approaches—use different devices with a small amount of funds, and see what you find most intuitive. Bitcoin custody is not static, technologies and methodologies evolve, so it is wise to practice different custody setups in order to sharpen your skills. There is no one-size-fits-all in bitcoin custody; each solution presented in this article makes trade-offs to deliver a certain experience. What is important is that you, the user, understand to the best of your abilities, what trade-offs are being made with your chosen solution and make informed decisions.

@ 0d6c8388:46488a33

[back](nostr:npub1p4kg8zxukpym3h20erfa3samj00rm2gt4q5wfuyu3tg0x3jg3gesvncxf8/demo-slide3) | [next](nostr:npub1p4kg8zxukpym3h20erfa3samj00rm2gt4q5wfuyu3tg0x3jg3gesvncxf8/demo-slide5)

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

In my circles, the term “fiat currency” is thrown around a lot, the idea that the dollar, euro, pound and other widely used media of exchange are created according the whims of their respective governments. This would be in contrast to a hard commodity money like gold or silver or even oil wherein the paper (or electronic) representation of wealth corresponded to a finite supply of a scarce resource. In that case, if you had x digital dollars in your account it would mean you had a claim on y ounces of gold or z barrels of oil. Of course, people could drill for more oil, but oil is energy, so even though your claim on the world’s energy might shrink proportionally, it would still remain constant in terms of the amount of power available to you. Likewise, people could mine more gold, but gold is scarce, expensive and difficult to mine, so the extra gold coming into use would have only a negligible effect on your wealth in the short and medium term. But in our present situation of money on a fiat standard, wherein a bank can issue it into existence via new loans, or a central bank can simply add zeroes to a bank’s reserves, there is no tether to a useful (or scarce and hard to produce) commodity. In this case, your labor and savings can be (and is) diluted with the touch of a keyboard. For example, if there are one trillion dollars in existence, and you own one million, you have one millionth of the country’s available wealth. Should the government print another trillion, you now have one two-millionth of the wealth. But printing (or digitally adding) another trillion dollars into circulation does not increase the world’s energy supply or useful goods, thereby growing the pie. The pie is exactly the same size, only now your claim is to a smaller slice. The wealth has simply been reapportioned away from, for example, wage workers and savers and toward asset holders (scarce real estate, artworks, gold, etc.) Put differently, fiat-currency-printing governments are legalized counterfeiters. They dilute the work and savings (stored work) of their citizens. If you make $25 an hour, and a house in your neighborhood costs $400K, it would take you 16,000 hours to pay for a house. If that house goes up to $800K, you’d need to make $50 an hour to keep pace. But while your wages might go up somewhat as the money supply expands, if they don’t go up as fast as the house appreciates, you will have to work more hours to afford it. Your labor in that case has been diluted, and your wealth redistributed to whoever already owns that house. And this is made possible by fiat — governments deciding to increase the money supply for whatever reason they deem necessary or expedient, e.g., to “save the banking system,” “stimulate the economy,” “make up for the demand shortage after they closed down society for a year.” They can simply add zeroes to a spreadsheet with a keystroke, redistributing wealth from one set of people to another according to their whims. . . . As unfair as surreptitious wealth redistribution via fiat is, I want to bring up a parallel and perhaps more pernicious process in our midst: fiat morality. Many people — and I would argue most of our institutions — subscribe to a moral framework wherein it’s presumed the right thing to do is provide the greatest good for the greatest number. This is the moral philosophy of utilitarianism, and it’s easy to see its appeal. If I can help 10 people at the expense of one, I’m in the black. If I can sacrifice the desires of a few to satisfy the many, this is a net greater good, according to this philosophy. It’s as though I have a spreadsheet of harms and goods, debits and credits so to speak, and as long as I’m maximizing the credits and minimizing the debits to the greatest extent practicable, I’m doing good. The problems with utilitarianism are many — not only are humans not very good at predicting future “greater good,” especially the second and third order effects in the medium and longer term future, but they are also prone to many self-serving biases about what constitutes the good and vice-versa. I want to focus on the second problem here. Let’s imagine I’m a utilitarian, desiring the greatest good for the greatest number, so I decide to run for president because of course we need a leader who prioritizes this very philosophy. I believe that if I win the election, a lot of NET GOOD will come from that, and if I lose, a lot of NET BAD will come from my opponent who believes people should have maximum freedom, within the law, irrespective of the consequences. Unfortunately for me, my opponent is way up in the polls. One of my advisors informs me he has a whistleblower from my opponent’s old company who’s willing to go public with his many indiscretions. This is great news for my campaign and of course for the country which is now in grave danger of NET BAD happening. We meet with the whistleblower who tells me a story that, via an odd twist of fate, I know for a fact is a lie. I can’t prove this, and no one else knows, but I have now ascertained with certainty that our whistleblower is willing to lie. Still, she is, to those not in the know, credible and compelling, and she has cohorts willing to corroborate her story (let’s imagine I also know they are dishonest.) Should I champion the whistleblower’s story to damage my opponent even though I know she is lying? I am about to decline, but my advisor astutely reminds me of the following: While lying is bad, the NET GOOD for billions around the world from my winning far outweighs the harm caused to my opponent being publicly smeared. Not only is it not wrong to lie in this case, I have a moral obligation to do so. The whistleblower’s revelations are a resounding success, and now I am more or less dead-even in the polls. Unfortunately, I’ve gotten wind that my opponent has his own whistleblower who can show that my whistleblower was in fact lying, and can prove that I knew she was lying at the time I championed her. This revelation would be fatal to my campaign, so it’s imperative his whistleblower not be able to make it to the courthouse the following day to testify. Of course, there’s not much I can do in this case, but my advisor tells me he has a man in the whistleblower’s local area who can “make this go away.” Of course, contract killing an honest and innocent whistleblower is a terrible NET BAD, but given how much my winning this presidency would redound to the NET GOOD, surely the sacrifice of a single person is not only justified, but morally imperative. We have the whistleblower assassinated. I win the presidency, but there are other obstacles to my doing the greatest good for the greatest number. Congress is stubborn about passing my important net-zero environmental agenda that’s crucial to the survival of humanity. Recalcitrant anti-vaxxers are not letting the country get to herd immunity. Free-speech zealots are suing under the First Amendment to allow pernicious disinformation, all of which are preventing NET GOOD and promoting NET BAD. I start jailing my political opponents, assassinating the worst of them, I order lockdowns, mandatory injections, impose strict carbon limits to reduce travel and meat consumption. I make it a crime to say anything that could lead people to be vaccine hesitant. All of these measures are for the NET GOOD. . . . The example I’ve outlined is admittedly extreme, but the principles advocated therein are actually quite ordinary. We really did lock people in their homes to “stop the spread” and we really did cost people their livelihoods to “increase vaccine uptake.” We really did invade Iraq (and kill a million people) to “keep us safe” from the alleged WMD. It’s quite easy to add NET GOODs or NET BADs to the spreadsheet in order to manipulate the moral calculi under a utilitarian framework, just as the fiat currency issuers can add zeroes to a balance sheet. You don’t want to take the injection, and you now realize it doesn’t even stop the spread? Let’s add “taking up ICU beds” to the moral harms column and now we can justify our mandates again! By fiat, we can command you to do or abstain from doing virtually anything. . . . What’s the alternative? People are so steeped in this mode of thinking they can’t imagine there’s some other way to manage public policy (or even private decision-making.) The alternative is to act out of principle. Do you remember “Thou Shalt Not Kill?” That would be the answer to “Do I assassinate my political opponent if doing so accrues to the NET GOOD?” Do you remember: “Thou Shalt Not Lie?” That would be the answer to whether to promote the fake whistleblower. Do you remember: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances. That would be the answer to whether you can pass laws against “disinformation” that might reduce mRNA injection uptake. Do you remember: The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential. That would be the answer to whether you can coerce people into taking medicine they don’t want by barring them from public spaces and threatening their jobs. The reason civil, constitutional and human rights exist is that people will always be able to justify their preferences as accruing to the greater good. They will always be able to manipulate the morality spreadsheet according to their whims. Rights stand as red lines that cannot be crossed, principles that cannot be violated, irrespective of your shoddy first-order spreadsheet math. The alternative to a fiat currency is a hard commodity money like gold or bitcoin the supply of which cannot be increased at the whims of the state. The alternative to fiat morality is firm moral principles like the rights embedded in the constitution that are inviolable to the agendas of the powerful. A government of laws, not men.

@ 6a39a186:88f51c19

# The Evolution of NoStream Relays: Monetizing the Future with ZBD API  > Everyone has a duty to ensure that global ,censorship-resistance is made available to all. -Project Maintainer --- If you've been keeping up with the latest in decentralized data protocols, NoStream is likely on your radar. NoStream, a versatile communications protocol, has been gaining traction, particularly in the realm of social media. Platforms like Snort, Damus, and Amethyst are ushering in a new era by adopting NoStream. *NoStream Officially on the Apple App Store with Damus* The growth of NoStream has been nothing short of extraordinary. With a surge in client apps, advanced relay implementations, and a bustling developer community, NoStream is evolving rapidly. GitHub stars serve as a testament to its popularity, surpassing similar protocols like Bitcoin, and LND. ### Network Growth As the NoStream network expands, discussions around monetization models become crucial. The distributed relay infrastructure, responsible for storing events, handling compute cycles, and relaying data to users, incurs trivial costs. Currently, enthusiasts run all NoStream relays, bearing the financial burden themselves. For sustainable growth, incentivizing relay operators through monetization is possible ### Fee Monetization While conceptualizing monetization strategies for NoStream relays is exciting, implementing them presents unique challenges. The innovation lies in leveraging Bitcoin for monetization, utilizing its decentralized nature and Lightning Network for seamless, low-cost transactions. #### Storage (Pay per Size) Charging users based on the data they store on NoStream relays offers a viable model. Relay operators could consider pricing in satoshis per megabyte of stored event data. #### Publication (Pay per Event) A 'pay-for-what-you-use' model, charging users per event, is another avenue worth exploring. However, friction and microtransactions may pose challenges to widespread adoption. #### Admission (Pay per Pubkey) A simpler approach involves a whitelist of users who pay an admission fee set by the relay operator. This not only monetizes the service but also acts as a deterrent against spam and ensures a stable NoStream experience. ### Enter NoStream + ZBD **NoStream**, particularly the feature-rich implementation called **NoStream (Nostream)**, stands out. Authored and maintained by Ricardo Arturo, a core NoStream contributor, Nostream is written in TypeScript and offers extensive features, including support for NIPs, rate limiting, blocklisting, and more. #### Paid Relay Access Nostream's latest feature introduces paid relay access through the ZBD API. By connecting a ZBD API key and configuring a few settings, relay operators can monetize their services through the Lightning Network. ### How It Works - Visit the paid Nostream relay [nostr.land]https://nostr.land/(). - Users encounter a one-time admission fee screen along with customizable Terms of Service. - Payment orchestration occurs through the Bitcoin Lightning Network, offering a seamless experience. - Once payment is complete, the user's public key joins the relay's allowlist, granting access. *Note: [Ricardo](https://eden.nostr.land) implemented a paid Nostream relay instance at [eden.nostr.land](https://eden.nostr.land) for users to experience the payment flow.* This innovative approach paves the way for simplified monetization of NoStream relays, addressing storage, compute, and bandwidth costs. With ZBD integration, NoStream takes a leap towards a sustainable and scalable future. ### Future Paths Even with the initial implementation, potential future paths emerge: - Defining NIPs for relays to send payment requests directly to clients. - Exploring subscription services to notify users about impending access termination without payment. In the face of NoStream's rapid user influx, one fact remains evident: free relays struggle under demand, while paid relays offer reliable services. *Recommended: Consider adopting NoStream relays with ZBD integration for a seamless and monetized user experience.* # Exploring the NoStream Revolution with CodeSpaces In the dynamic landscape of decentralized communication protocols, NoStream stands out as a revolutionary force. This article delves into the heart of the NoStream repository, exploring its features, functionalities, and the power it holds in reshaping the way we communicate. ## NoStream: Unleashing the Future [NoStream](https://github.com/Cameri/nostream) is a generic communications protocol that has gained significant attention, particularly in the realm of social media. Developed by a dedicated community, the repository serves as the epicenter of innovation for NoStream applications and relays. ### Getting Started with CodeSpaces Before we delve into the repository, let's explore the convenience of [CodeSpaces](https://github.com/features/codespaces), GitHub's integrated development environment. CodeSpaces allows you to spin up a fully functional development environment directly within your browser. It streamlines the setup process and ensures a consistent and collaborative coding experience. ```bash # Clone the NoStream repository git clone https://github.com/Cameri/nostream.git cd nostream ``` Now, let's initiate CodeSpaces for seamless development: 1. Click on the "Code" dropdown on the NoStream repository. 2. Select "Open with CodeSpaces." Voila! You're now equipped with a fully configured environment to explore and contribute to NoStream. ## Nostream Features ```plaintext Features NIPs with a relay-specific implementation are listed here. NIP-01: Basic protocol flow description NIP-02: Contact list and petnames NIP-04: Encrypted Direct Message NIP-09: Event deletion NIP-11: Relay information document NIP-11a: Relay Information Document Extensions NIP-12: Generic tag queries NIP-13: Proof of Work NIP-15: End of Stored Events Notice NIP-16: Event Treatment NIP-20: Command Results NIP-22: Event created_at Limits NIP-26: Delegated Event Signing (REMOVED) NIP-28: Public Chat NIP-33: Parameterized Replaceable Events NIP-40: Expiration Timestamp Requirements Standalone setup PostgreSQL 14.0 Redis Node v18 Typescript Docker setups Docker v20.10 Docker Compose v2.10 Local Docker setup Docker Desktop v4.2.0 or newer mkcert WARNING: Docker distributions from Snap, Brew or Debian repositories are NOT SUPPORTED and will result in errors. Install Docker from their official guide ONLY. ``` ## Contributing to the Revolution NoStream is a community-driven project, and contributions are not just welcome but encouraged. Whether you're a seasoned developer or a newcomer, the repository provides a fertile ground for collaboration. Check the [contributing guidelines](https://github.com/Cameri/nostream/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) to understand how you can be part of this exciting revolution. ## # Harnessing the Power of NoStream: A Guide to Accepting Payments Embracing the decentralized communication revolution, NoStream has become a pivotal force in reshaping how we connect. In this guide, we'll explore the intricacies of accepting payments on NoStream, unlocking a world of possibilities for developers and content creators. ## Before You Begin: Quick Start To embark on the journey of accepting payments via NoStream, ensure you've completed one of the Quick Start guides provided in the documentation. Additionally, create a `.env` file and make specific changes in the `.nostr/settings.yaml` file to set the stage for payment integration. ```bash # Example .env file setup SECRET=your_secret_key_here # Other environment variables as per your configuration ``` Now, let's delve into the specific changes needed in the `.nostr/settings.yaml` file: - Set `payments.enabled` to true. - Enable admission fees by setting `payments.feeSchedules.admission.enabled` to true. - Adjust `limits.event.pubkey.minBalance` to the minimum balance required in msats (e.g., 1000000 for a balance of 1000 sats). ## Choosing Your Payment Processor NoStream provides flexibility in choosing payment processors. Below, we'll explore the setup process for some prominent options. ### 1. ZEBEDEE Integration [ZEBEDEE](https://zebedee.io/) offers a seamless payment integration experience with NoStream. Follow these steps: - Sign up for a ZEBEDEE Developer Dashboard account. - Create a new LIVE Project and obtain the Project's API Key. - Set the `ZEBEDEE_API_KEY` environment variable in your `.env` file. ```bash ZEBEDEE_API_KEY=your_zebedee_api_key_here ``` - Configure settings in the `.nostr/settings.yaml` file for ZEBEDEE integration. - Restart NoStream for changes to take effect. For a detailed guide, refer to [Set Up a Paid Nostr Relay with ZEBEDEE API](https://github.com/Cameri/nostream/blob/main/docs/guides/zebedee.md). ### 2. Nodeless Integration [Nodeless](https://nodeless.com/) brings simplicity to the payment integration process. Here's how to set it up: - Sign up for a Nodeless account and create a new store. - Generate an API key and note the store ID. - Configure the `.env` file with `NODELESS_API_KEY` and `NODELESS_WEBHOOK_SECRET`. ```bash NODELESS_API_KEY=your_nodeless_api_key NODELESS_WEBHOOK_SECRET=your_nodeless_webhook_secret ``` - Update settings in `.nostr/settings.yaml` for Nodeless integration. - Restart NoStream for the changes to take effect. ### 3. OpenNode Integration [OpenNode](https://www.opennode.com/) provides a robust platform for payment processing on NoStream: - Sign up for a new OpenNode account and get verified. - Create a new API Key with Invoices permission. - Set the `OPENNODE_API_KEY` environment variable in your `.env` file. ```bash OPENNODE_API_KEY=your_opennode_api_key ``` - Adjust settings in `.nostr/settings.yaml` for OpenNode integration. - Restart NoStream to apply the changes. ### 4. LNbits Integration [LNbits](https://lnbits.com/) brings Lightning Network capabilities to NoStream: - Create a new wallet on your public LNbits instance. - Obtain the wallet Invoice/read key. - Set the `LNBITS_API_KEY` environment variable in your `.env` file. ```bash LNBITS_API_KEY=your_lnbits_api_key ``` - Configure settings in `.nostr/settings.yaml` for LNbits integration. - Restart NoStream to activate the changes. ### 5. LNURL Provider Integration Integrate any LNURL Provider with LNURL-verify support: - Create an account with an LNURL Provider if you don't have one. - Update `.nostr/settings.yaml` with the chosen LNURL provider details. - Restart NoStream for the configuration to take effect. ## Testing Your Payment Integration To ensure a seamless payment experience, follow these steps: 1. Visit your NoStream domain. 2. Complete the admission fee form presented. 3. Pay the invoice as instructed. 4. Wait for the payment confirmation. 5. Add your relay URL to your preferred Nostr client. 6. Send test notes to validate the integration. ## Docker Compose Quick Start For those preferring Docker Compose, follow these steps: ```bash # Clone repository and enter directory git clone https://github.com/yourusername/nostream.git cd nostream # Generate a secret and paste it into an .env file echo "SECRET=$(openssl rand -hex 128)" > .env # Start NoStream ./scripts/start ``` ## Running as a Service To run NoStream as a service, consider setting it up using systemd: 1. Create a systemd service file (replace placeholders): ```ini [Unit] Description=NoStream TS Relay After=network.target StartLimitIntervalSec=0 [Service] Type=simple Restart=always RestartSec=5 User=your_username WorkingDirectory=/path/to/nostream ExecStart=/path/to/nostream/scripts/start ExecStop=/path/to/nostream/scripts/stop [Install] WantedBy=multi-user.target ``` 2. Enable and start the service: ```bash systemctl enable nostream systemctl start nostream ``` 3. View logs with: ```bash journalctl -u nostream ``` ## Standalone Quick Start For a standalone setup, configure the environment variables and initialize the database: ```bash # Set environment variables # Example variables, adjust as needed DB_HOST=localhost DB_PORT=5432 DB_NAME=nostr_ts_relay DB_USER=postgres DB_PASSWORD=postgres REDIS_HOST=localhost REDIS_PORT=6379 REDIS_USER=default REDIS_PASSWORD=nostr_ts_relay SECRET=your_secret_key_here # Create the nostr_ts_relay database psql -h $DB_HOST -p $DB_PORT -U $DB_USER -W postgres=# create database nostr_ts_relay; postgres=# quit # Start Redis and set the default password redis-cli 127.0.0.1:6379> CONFIG SET requirepass "nostr_ts_relay" OK 127.0.0.1:6379> AUTH nostr_ts_relay Ok ``` Continue with the repository setup: ```bash # Clone repository and enter directory git clone https://github.com/yourusername/nostream.git cd nostream # Install dependencies npm install -g knex npm install # Run migrations NODE_OPTIONS="-r dotenv/config" npm run db:migrate # Start NoStream npm run start ``` ## Testing and Development For testing and development, execute the following commands: ```bash # Run unit tests npm run test:unit # Run unit tests in watch mode npm run test:unit:watch # Run unit test coverage npm run cover:unit # Run integration tests with Docker Compose npm run docker:test:integration # Run integration test coverage ``` # Closing Thoughts Running three relay databases in the context of NoStream can be perceived as a small and trivial cost, especially when considering the broader utility and the potential for monetizing interactions within friend-to-friend tribes. Let's break down the reasons behind this perspective: 1. **Decentralization and Redundancy:** - NoStream operates on a decentralized model where multiple relay databases contribute to the network. This decentralization ensures redundancy and fault tolerance. - Running multiple relay databases distributes the load and mitigates the risk of a single point of failure. If one relay goes down, others continue to function, maintaining the availability of the NoStream network. 2. **Resilience to Network Growth:** - As the NoStream network continues to grow, the demand for relay services increases. Having multiple relay databases accommodates this growth seamlessly, ensuring a consistent and reliable user experience. - Distributing the load across multiple relays helps in scaling the network infrastructure efficiently. 3. **Cost-Effective Scaling:** - The cost of running three relay databases is often relatively small compared to the benefits gained in terms of network reliability, scalability, and performance. - NoStream's lightweight protocol and the distributed nature of relays make it feasible to maintain multiple instances without incurring exorbitant costs. 4. **Monetization Opportunities:** - Monetizing friend-to-friend interactions within tribes becomes more viable with the reliability and scalability provided by multiple relay databases. - Each relay database can potentially serve as a monetization point, allowing relay operators to earn returns on their server infrastructure provisioning. 5. **Enhanced User Experience:** - Having three relay databases contributes to a smoother and more responsive user experience. Users interacting within friend-to-friend tribes benefit from reduced latency and faster access to shared notes and events. 6. **Incentivizing Relay Operators:** - Introducing a monetization model encourages relay operators to invest in maintaining and expanding their infrastructure. This incentive structure ensures that there's a continual commitment to providing reliable relay services. 7. **Security and Anti-Spam Measures:** - Running multiple relay databases aids in implementing effective security measures and anti-spam protocols. It becomes easier to detect and mitigate adversarial conditions, ensuring the integrity of the NoStream network. The decision to run three relay databases is strategic and aligns with the principles of decentralization, scalability, and incentivization within the NoStream ecosystem. While the initial cost may be considered unimportant, the long-term benefits in terms of network robustness and the potential for monetization make it a prudent and forward-thinking approach. ---

@ 0d6c8388:46488a33

I'm just a normal guy that likes Jesus and bitcoin! Here are some things you should know about me: * [my old website](https://paul.lol/) * [one of my previous podcasts](https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/futurepaul) * [I'm famous for this one thing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trVzyG4zFMU) * [my job is really cool](https://mutinywallet.com/) Well that's all for now hope you have a good day!

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

testing testin

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

after it for real this time

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

Lorem ipsum lorem ipsum

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

once again my friend

@ fa984bd7:58018f52

I'm happy to announce that Shipyard is now roaming the nostr relays as a DVM. Ok, what the hell does that even mean? Ok, so DVMs, or Data Vending Machines, are just programs that take requests over nostr to deliver... well, data. And what is Shipyard? Shipyard, as it's slogan "A Quiet Place for Loud Ideas" implies, is a write-only Nostr client. One of the instrumental features that Shipyard.pub implemented was the ability to SCHEDULE posts and reposts. No more fighting to publish your notes to defeat the evil Timezone Cabal; you can write your note when you see fit, and then schedule so it's published whenever it makes most sense to you. Groundbreaking stuff, I know. Ok, so now, Shipyard's scheduling superpowers can be accessed as a DVM: meaning that any Nostr client can now easily add scheduling capabilities without much fuss! For example, this long-form post was actually written a day before it was published, and the publishing was handled by the Shipyard DVM. How does it work? Client developers can use NIP-89 to find kind:5905 DVMs, right now only Shipyard, and when a person wants to schedule a post they simply send the post via an encrypted DVM request to Shipyard. That's it, at the time the event's created_at timestamp reaches the event will be published to the specified relays! What can it look like? Up to clients developers to decide; here's my take: https://cdn.satellite.earth/e05f366b61b9b9b68f716eb297563e5dbbae6b7f7f73fdd5177a389bd2de36fb.mp4

@ 3242fcf0:20540bdb

People used to talk about hyperbitcoinisation as if there were a doubt. Doubtful its day would come or if it was even a thing. Until those years, people had romanticised the idea of it. Others believes it would bring forward a mad-max state and the end of the world as we know it. Bitcoin however awoke many in the 2010s and 2020s to the injustice that exists in the world, given the world's economy had been resting on a select few's shoulders. If you were a time-traveller living through this time again, you would remember this period vividly. This was a time when every single day the press and people were panting like puppies, waiting for their next labour-market or inflation number being 'fed' to them. People had quite literally become domesticated by monetary policy, the Federal Reserve and big government. It didn't take long for those with increasing abilities to become cognisant that these institutions were no longer working in the best interests of its citizens. If not after 2020, then certainly by the end of the 3 painful years of 2026, 2027 and 2028. The true battle was not against a foreign adversary, but against individuals and their minds themselves. To stop them from adopting Bitcoin given it was gaining strength from fiat monetary policy. Bitcoin's ascent would come regardless.  ----- ***ℹ️ Note**: This is my first attempt at fiction'ary here on SN. Inspired to finally post it by @plebpoet's [SN post](https://stacker.news/items/405904/r/davidw) on the positive impact of fiction. something to look back-on hilariously for entertainment. But bear with me whilst I try to set the stage for a potential era of hyperbitcoinisation... including with graphics. If you prefer just discussing your own vision for hyperbitcoinisation, feel free to join the discussion on [this SN post](https://stacker.news/items/406385/r/davidw) instead.* ---- ## **Stage A. Inflated Expectations** **December 2022 > November 2025** People thought that the inflation that roared into life in 2021 would not be toppled for years to come, only to witness double-digit inflation show it's face again in the second half of 2024. Thanks to massive injection of global liquidity worldwide starting Q1 2024.  You needed not look further than the M2 money stock of the Top 5 most traded currencies at the time, the USD, CNY, EUR, JPY, GBP - adjusted into dollars. A new printing frenzy happened in 2024, marked by the 3rd grey triangle illustrated, with the total stock of these currencies reaching a top of 200 trillion dollars just 14 years later. More than doubling in that time. Such a figure acted like a wall however, with both the market and hyperbitcoinisation later forcing what was left of these countries into adopting the asset and into complete currency reform. During 2025, inflation briefly pierced 14% officially YoY or 20% - when using more accurate methods to calculate necessary goods & services. This led to even more extreme distortions in everyday life, with more and more of 'modern' society speculating beyond their means - be it with meme stocks on-top of corporate 'blockchains' (i.e. intranets), companies rebranding themselves to NDIV-AI, or even cigarettes, gasoline and used cars being stockpiled as a means of 'getting ahead' of others. People were doing nothing more than just surviving. In spite of it looking like a small blip on the chart between 2020 and 2026, you can see the *drastic* change of pace in UK retail prices, with a basket of retail prices doubling from 1k to 2k:  *📊 The chart above combines official UK Parliament data via [this report](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP12-31/RP12-31.pdf) between 1750 to 2011 with pleb-like extrapolation / guesswork.* --- Mainstream press speculated that the teeny-weeny bull market of 2020/21 would never be repeated. Only to witness every Tom, Dick and Harriett trading options & puts as third jobs by the end of 2025. This led to restrictions around who was able to trade and not - with many traders needing to evidence themselves as 'professionals' or high net worth individuals in order to access their capital after the exuberance disappeared. The bull-market top of 2024/2025 was signalled shortly after November 2025 when Elon declared that $DOGE was on-track to being the next world reserve currency due to its micropayment capabilities for X and for Tesla, only 24 hours before the entire protocol went offline a day later due to meme Monday clogging it's "blockchain". Teslas were undriveable and X was inaccessible during this time, causing panic for stock markets, investors & all manner of businesses worldwide that were dependent upon it for 'sentiment analysis'. One Friday, saw the biggest drawdowns in market-making history. This time was also categorised by the suspiciously-contrarian investor Jim Cramer claiming Bitcoin's price appreciation was a 'sure thing' and that remortgaging homes into Ark's 5x leveraged A.I-infused Bitcoin ETF was a matter of national importance and patriotic duty. Given the rapid appreciation of all other assets, and the even more pronounced leverage that was funnelled into the system, there were now 120 paper claims for every $1 in the system by the end of 2025. With an explosion of derivative contracts and leveraged ETFs without underlying insurance to cover those claims. With everyone rushing to the dollar exits at the same time, the unwind of almost all financial assets globally came within hours. Prices of retail goods even fell, so that by 2028 they had fallen to match those observed in 2019. But not for long. The "everything bubble", as it was described soon after, took the heat-off Bitcoin in many respects. With the monetisation of everything, liquidating anything else other than Bitcoin was very slow work. People soon understood the value of a bearer asset that you could liquidate in minutes. But first not without the price of the asset taking one of it's usual beatings into 2026... ## **Stage B. The Slump** **December 2025 > January 2029** One side effect of this financial collapse was the accelerated obsoletion/replacement of many major political currencies worldwide, at least in their traditional form. Replaced in favour of their more modern programmable alternatives. The premeditated & somewhat staged economic collapse that followed, prevented most citizens from spending their 'gains' into the real economy. Even with those still owning some assets on paper. Bitcoin drew-down from $450k to $60k over this period. Yet at the same time people were met with the introduction of 'unrealised capital gains' on assets. With the IRS issuing tax statements for the value of paper Bitcoin gains from 6 months prior. It also saw the 'patriotisation' of Bitcoin via ETFs and MicroStrategy stock as 'prepayment' of those taxes. The ultimate recognition of Bitcoin's value to the world, Bitcoin was being coerced out of ~~individual~~ ~~suckers~~ tax payers hands and was now recapitalising the new financial system. ### **CBDCs** The evolution of fiat into CBDCs saw to them being described initially as 'inflation-proof' by allowing each unit of currency to have conditions of purchase. Being only tradable for certain products, services and quantities of each. This was their only means of existence. The timely introduction, during the years of 2026, 2027 and 2028, a period of economic turmoil, created a sudden stop to the incredible price accumulation for nearly all assets over the short term. Prices had overshot and so they oversunk, becoming around 20% lower in 2029 compared to 2019. For the average person, it was very disorientating. Many people adopted CBDCs via the carrot initially, first out of novelty with their trials and then out of necessity. Only for governments soon to be incentivising their use via the stick method. In many locales, politicians promised not to go this route however, distancing themselves from the Chinese socialist model in favour of their own approval ratings. CBDCs in the latter part of the 2020s however allowed more and more control of private resources worldwide, including both property and people. Capital and immigration controls were intense during those years. The years up to 2030 were so chaotic and painful for many, that people wrote about them in general as *the* "lost decade". But this time wasn't at all lost for Bitcoin. Increasing misallocations of capital created large waves of unemployment in all countries within 24 short months, particularly for those countries that had benefited most during the industrial era. This led to huge drawdowns on stocks and an almost worldwide-ban on 'short selling' by retail investors. The collapse temporarily reduced prices quite significantly. The onset of new automation technology took the fall for the collapse and people's dependency on the state, rather than people pointing the finger at the price of money itself and those in control of it. ### **Battle for Minds** Corrupt politicians and people of power sought to domesticate their pets, by packaging-up news and nutritional needs with sub-standard fake sludge. Subsidised life by the state, if you did as they pleased. Many saw through it. Being in such a privileged position, it was popular for governments to blame foreign adversaries for all manner of issues worldwide - be it climate, shortages, unemployment, hunger, data leaks, internet outages and more, but it was their own citizens that they were focused on. Preventing them from a monetary uprising. Many subconsciously forgot just how much transpired during those years, with a new so-called 'crisis' unfolding almost every quarter. Censorship, AI-modified content, fact-checking, internet domain takedowns and permissioned social media became the norm. And in that environment, foreign / global conflict was seen as a more favourable scenario for politician portfolios than witnessing the GreatER Depression unfold in it's entireity around the world. Large nation states needed such a conflict in order to write-off big portions of their debt. To many however it was a surprise to see such a moronic mindset and abhorrent actions surface themselves, despite having been predicted to arrive as early as 2026 by Star Trek decades prior. It wasn't until the end of 2028 when this became unavoidable for all. Global conflict helped distract and suppress people's inflation expectations for some time, all whilst enabling countries to spend and misallocate money like drunken sailors. Drunken sailors with nuclear capabilities. ### **Tick-Tock Next Flock** Amidst all of this social upheaval and fanfare, a growing number of humble pleb-devs were reclaiming sovereignty in new territories, relocating and retooling to build the next wave of business infrastructure to be adopted for the 2030s. People of higher cognitive and creative abilities were able to circumvent the restrictions imposed on them years in advance of others in the populace. They were trading their time & valuable consumables for a superior asset, amongst each other in smaller communities. The difficult years of 2026, 2027 & 2028 meant that Bitcoin builders had an extended period of time to batten-down the hatches and hack-away on novel innovations. More so than normal. They did so under the continued mystery of pseudonymous nyms, commissioning alternative means of transport for private meets. At the same time they were introducing privacy-preserving improvements and layers to Bitcoin that would obsolete even the latest CBDC technologies in just a few years. A 3 year bear market was a treat for these underground hermit builders. They had built in these months what would have taken decades, without the distractions of everyday life. ### **Bitcoiner Innovations in the 2020s** Here were a few innovations that professional punks came up with: - They had engineered and normalised offline payments over radiowave on new layers of Bitcoin. Anyone with an old CPU, clothes hanger and a soldering-iron could bootstrap bitcoin circular economies for people in the surrounding 20km radius. - They had made mesh networking scalable, profitable & popular once more. People were able to charge for time-boxed access or per GB of data downloaded, with a few incentivised nodes connecting to existing non-commercialised low-orbit satellites for global reach. - Nostr had normalised multi-sig and estate planning so that a will of any size could be set-up in less than 60 seconds. It was now considered best practice to select 3 of 5 contacts with whom to share keys with when initialising a new wallet. - Payjoin payments were now 95% of the network transactions, rendering chain surveillance vapourware even worse than guesswork in just 6 short months. ### **Bitcoiner Innovations in the 2030s** - Zaps were happening in real-life with simple hand gestures. Most adopted the cowboy pistol zap gesture, shooting satoshis from their finger tips whilst miming the words "peow", thanks to the accuracy of accelerometers. Others opted for the spiderman web gesture or the Jay-Pow two-handed money printing gesture. Each had their own unique physical method of zapping, whilst others just reserved them for secret handshakes. - Physical Bitcoin gift cards were handed-out for special occasions. Once spent or redeemed, the cards would self-destruct safely, increasing the virality and network effects of Bitcoin. - Many Bitcoiners pivoted to privacy preserving hardware, both in digital and meat space, to carry around and shield themselves. They were as powerful as advanced military scramblers, making them undetectable to most invasive spyware on the streets, meaning privacy-minded people were only observable by low-orbit satellites if they wished. Appearing as bright flashes of light by digital cameras, when enabled. - Bitcoin transactions had become so commonplace that in some parts of the world, and many people depended on it for their day to day life that many churches now rang a bell each time a new block was mined. ## **Stage C. Euphoric 2030s** If ever there were a time to define Hyperbitcoinisation it would be in the period that followed, during the 2030s. The world had shaken many of the shackles of government inefficiency, putting to an an end the worldwide restrictions, injustices & 'crises'. The conflict was over relatively quickly by historical standards. This led to the privatisation of much security in society, opening of commerce and aerospace once more - together with novel new technology being deployed by the private sector. Tech that had previously only been accessible to parts of the public sector for 'defence'.  The Bitcoin price chart looked like other rising wedges witnessed in prior maturing assets, with an extremely sharp and rapid appreciation between 2035 and 2038. It reminded many people who study markets of the likes of Apple, Amazon, Exxon, Boeing, Microsoft and others from prior decades. In the case of Microsoft, Infosys, British American Tobacco & Infosys, assets that are in an exponential trend when priced in flawed-fiat terms sometimes overshoot above the wedge before due to exuberance, before running out of momentum. | |  | | ---- | ---- | |  |  | |  | ] | |  |  | ### **Unforeseen Prices** For those preoccupied with price, most thought that Bitcoin priced in dollars at $369k at the end of 2024 was the ultimate top. Others thought the dollar would cease to exist beyond that year. Permabulls speculated that following this bull market, that Bitcoin would never drop below $40k again. It did so towards the end of 2028 with a far longer than expected bear market. 3 years instead of the usual 1. That said, *never* in people's wildest dreams, did anyone anticipate that less than a decade later that price would exceed `$370,000,000 per each Bitcoin`. Not even in a hyperinflationary scenario had people forecast that in sheer purchasing power adjusted for inflation they would be valued at $74 million a pop in 2024 terms. People thought that these sorts of returns were behind a thing of the past. ### **Nation 'Steak' Adoption** El Salvador's ascent to the very top of international finance was unimaginably fast. What took Hong Kong 40 years from, took Dubai 25 years but for El Salvador it took 16 short years, since they made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021. Other dollarised countries followed suit later in the 2020s, before it became a well-adopted strategy for nations and states in the early part of the 2030s. Countries did not stop there either. Many adopted Bitcoiner principles alongside the monetary "standard". Forward-looking, growth-focused economies were doubling-down on 'meat space', pivoting away from the communist climate agendas dreamt-up for the 2020s, creating a new market for premium grass-fed meat, called "bitcoin beef". Since their best customers (Bitcoiners) were demanding and purchasing it. Paraguay was first, before Argentina, Uruguay and Colombia followed in the Americas, leveraging and rebranding their livestock on a Bitcoin standard. Ireland, Portugal and Greece ditched the Euro to adopt Bitcoin also, abandoning the euro experiment. Leaving Germany and France to hold Lagarde's drooping bags. The United States had stabilised their currency due to the haul of Bitcoin it had extracted from its citizens over the prior decade but was slowly disintegrating into smaller states once again. During the early 2030s it took visionaries to abandon the privilege of printing their currencies or utilising the U.S. dollar. But by the end of the decade, countries were being berated for not doing so. What was unthinkable in Bitcoin's first "Quinceañera" was not by the end of it's 2nd 16 year mega-cycle. By 2042, there were protests in the streets demanding for monetary uniform into Satsohis. Everyday people - taxi drivers, nurses, farmers, hospitality and blue collar works were all demanding the Bitcoin standard. Even Nassim Taleb finally pivoted, finally joining the so-called "cult'. Almost all citizens worldwide got their wish, people from everywhere but Canada. The dollar did lose much of it's purchasing power dating back to 2024, giving up around ~80% in purchasing power over 15 years and 30-40% compared to other smaller political currencies supported by commodities. Technology would soon see to it that the price of everyday necessities would nullify the effects of much of the monetary inflation, as Sir Jeff Booth had theorised. But not without retail prices rising significantly between 2028 and 2038. Individuals were also gaining from their increasing adoption of Bitcoin as a savings vehicle. It would not be long before time would have value once more. Bitcoin's price appreciation during this time was similar to that during it's early years in 2010 through to 2015. During the final 2 years of hyperbitcoinsation, Bitcoin appreciated over 30,000%, comparable only to the 2 years between 2013 and 2015 (56,000%). What differed this time however was that it was appreciating at the expense of alternative asset classes, not in lockstep with others. At the time of writing, mainstream opinion has recognised and declared the 2030s era to be one of growth, increasing purchasing power and liberalisation. Or more succinctly the 'Exponential End' of Fiat, rather than the 'Information Age'. ### **Small and Nimble** Small business was booming throughout the 2030s, with zero barriers to entry, be it for branding, manufacturing, videography, software, ingredients, electronics and more. People were finally able to concentrate on building great products that their communities had wanted, thanks to the incredible utility of programmable open-source bots & locally-run automated intelligence. Without regulatory scrutiny to castrate these technologies and without potential legal action to tip the balance towards risk rather than reward, being an entrepreneur became simpler once more. The costs of doing business and any potential litigation vanished, there were fewer barriers to entry in the 2030s. 3D printers for electronics made recycling circuitboards from unused TVs, obsolete traffic lights and old mobile phones commonplace. Outdated or previously tethered technologies were being redeployed and re-envisioned by the ambitious youth, transforming off-the-shelf general-purpose machinery into productive customised assets. The increasingly doubling-density of batteries allowed previously tethered operations completely mobile - unlocking new business models. People were deploying server farms and Bitcoin miners at sea, harnessing the power of undersea volcanoes, waves and sea-currents without worrying about excess noise or heat for people in the surrounding area. ### **Innovation Abounds** All of the ground-breaking robotics, healing health-tech and breakthroughs in energy efficiency and propulsion, combined with having each of our own custom FOSS intelligent assistants to educate each individual based on their strengths and weaknesses - saw to it that human productivity in nearly every corner of the globe witnessed a step change. Commerce became continental once more, after a blip in collaboration globally. A 10 year rise ensued, all of which was funnelled into an unobstructed anchor of value, making people-potential and productivity parabolic during the 30s. A bombastic "baby boom" that Tuur Demeester had spoken about in the 2020s soon helped improve the demographics of many countries. The bizarre orchestrated chaos of the 2020s era for any creative or affluent individual, had put an end to the belief in 'big' government controlling people's lives, with people of all ages and backgrounds extremely sceptical of central control, collectively building large trustless or small trusted structures to never repeat the mistakes that had been witnessed in decades prior. The world witnessed the fragmentation of many large countries, with smaller units forming competitive laws. Any man of ability could soon earn a decent living for his family with honest work, whereas in the 2020s each family member had been working multiple jobs to sustain themselves. ### **Countries Just About Functional** Capital controls of the 2020s for Western and Asian countries had yet to be fully lifted and not all people had yet shaken the view that politicians had a duty and need to subsidise their income. This unfortunately led to the continued degrading of fiat purchasing power, with retail prices going up 5x between 2028 and 2038. Causing more and more people being onboarded to Bitcoin. United States, United Kingdom and the European Union were not so united anymore at all. Dividing and fragmenting into smaller enclaves based on culture. Whereas people had called "The United States" in the past century, people were now calling them "These United States" once more. Still retaining the flawed political currencies. In-fighting too was still ongoing between states & regions over what portion of the national debts were owned by who and who would pay the bill. Many states with their absurd actions in the late 20s had stockpiled satoshis and resources to survive for some time still. But they were still mostly dysfunctional. In spite of Bitcoin attracting increasing market and mind-share from entrepreneurs, particularly those building scalable automated businesses, countries were to benefit also from the price appreciation and those that did were extending their shelf life. People were devoting the majority of their seconds to earn in satoshis, despite local CBDC currency no longer being convertible to Bitcoin. People everywhere at once were being educated in real-time of the value of Bitcoin as both a savings and trust-less tool for commerce. Some states were even benefiting from it's ascent on the world stage, more so than their citizens. They were doing so, with proxy companies, getting publicly listed companies to issue debt on international markets in local currency for exchanging into Bitcoin on their behalf. Drastically reducing their wide deficits, without signalling so to global markets. ## **Stage D. Bitcoin's Lost Decade** Those that adopted Bitcoin in decades prior have in recent years been building new cities, deploying their capital into citadels, education centres, defensive tools and technologies for future generations. The level of investment has been astounding. These individuals and their communities have benefited *enormously*, not just monetarily, but also in terms of Bitcoin-based principles and community. Hyperbitcoinisation is a time of great spending. Their values are strong and robust, centered around common truths, nutrition, family and (proof of) work. Bitcoiners have spearheaded an entirely new value-economy, rewarding great work and craftsmanship with a lucrative wage and subsidised living, in ways that government was simply unable. Seeing work of value, Bitcoiners commissioned new works, new buildings and statues. Their only request, for such work to be shared in the public domain, on full display to inspire future generations. Bitcoin elevated pay to be in line with productivity, thanks to both the accelerated obsoletion of monetary debasement, plus the onset of algorithmic altruism and concern for others. It brought restraint to public finances not out of force, but through game theory. ### **Proof of Work Everything** Bitcoiners still to this day are creating everything of value from anything of little value, thanks to open-source software and nanotechnology. Craftsmanship and aspirational architecture is booming. Like one of my favourite fictional books (The Diamond Age) foresaw, it is now more important why you create something and how you do so, rather than not what you create. The cultural aspect of what you choose to dedicate your time to is now far more important for all than it was in decades prior. ### **Superior Returns Elsewhere** That said, the days of superior returns in Bitcoin may well be behind us at the time of writing. Bitcoin may no longer be as favourable as an investment like in years prior. It may be forever money, but there is abundance for Bitcoiners today when spending satoshis. Companies with price to earnings ratios of 60-70 in years prior (meaning it would take 60-70 years of before reimbursing investors) are now priced at 0.6-1.4x earnings. People are more than happy to receive Bitcoin, but the HODL mentality is no longer being encouraged by even the earliest known cypherpunks. It is a time of great spending and investment in our future. ### **Over-Monetisation** Bitcoin is becoming viewed like gold or real estate was during the 2020s for millennials and GenZ'ers, increasingly unobtainable. An unfashionably boring relic, today's youth are now exhilarated by the face of new holographic garments, micro-electronics and autonomous entrepreneurship using Bitcoin's network. No longer video games and viral dance-moves. Bitcoin is still sound money, it has certainly done the job of protecting people from the frauds of fiat and will continue to be the preferred method of value transfer for eternity. Bitcoin as an asset however has been commoditised and over-monetised from these last 3 decades now. Now that we're entering the 2040s, it's 4th decade as an investable asset looks set to be one of stagnant growth and purchasing power. Like gold has been during certain eras.  This may seem extremely speculative to predict, but with hyperbitcoinisation now in 2040 in full flow, we may actually see more red than green years in the run-up to 2050. People are investing and deploying their satoshis for the future. The amount of unspent Bitcoin is decelerating fast. Bitcoin has done it's job in bootstrapping this new era of growth for humanity and will do so again in future decades. ### **The Return of Trust** New trustworthy communities have adopted Bitcoin fully as their collateral, but are now offering their own undervalued growth potential on-top of the treasury asset. These private currencies, including repurposed fiat are backed not-only by 'digital gold', but also include the human potential and growth of their communities to generate a superior return this next decade. The return of trust to our institutions is leading to bull-markets in other areas and assets. ### **Revaluing Human Time** Some people estimate that a barrel oil is worth between 10,000 & 25,000 human hours of stored energy today, with 35 billion barrels used each year. So `350 - 875 trillion` human hours each year. For Bitcoin, the numbers are more modest but the average hodling period has now crossed below 4 years, with 70% of Bitcoins up until recently not having moved for 5 years, a trend that only now is starting to reverse. Given the ability to work from anywhere, Bitcoin has helped redistribute the worlds wealth increasing the average salary globally from $8,900 per annum in 2020 to in excess of $80,000 p/a by 2040. Adjusted for inflation, wages have tripled globally, levelling the playing field across geographies. Furthermore, in excess of 5.5 billion people have been utilising it as their primary source of _energy storage_ - their time. Given the shift to an average 4 day work-week, `8.5 trillion new hours` are directly being parked per year in Bitcoin. In addition, the network has absorbed ~80% of historically-stored energy, estimated at $650 trillion of the now $800 trillion of Global Wealth. Adding $31m to the value of each Bitcoin over the last 30 years. At the global average hourly wage of $50 per hour, that's `13 trillion human hours` deployed inside the network. Or over 21 trillion total. Each Bitcoin in total is estimated to be storing over `1,000,000 hours` or `650 human years` of human productivity. These 'pent-up' hours are now coming onto the market, ready to be spent and redeployed into the economy, for business, infrastructure & for investments. Without any drastic changes to inflation. Being on a sound money standard however, reduced the risk of inflation eradicating that purchasing power. If anything, goods and services were getting cheaper just like Sir Booth said. ## **Redeployment of human capital & time** Now that every community has sound and solid fundamentals, now that hyperbitconisation is upon us - energy resources too are being redirected away from global hashing power, in favour of new transportation, new opportunities and new human growth potential. ---- ## **What if Bitcoin is seeing a 'lost' decade?**  ***Question - If this were the case between 2038 and 2048, how would you react and adapt in this environment?*** Each Bitcoin may have been worth close to $390million in recent years, but it need not matter, given that hyperbitcoinisation is taking full effect. Every commodity experiences long-term cycles, and becomes overvalued at certain points. Bitcoin itself has witnessed that in prior micro-cycles. Just now it was happening on a grander scale. Bitcoin as an asset may be going through a "lost decade" but as a network it is thriving. Many people are using it without recognising it. If I was to travel back through time and give advice to myself in the past, I would of course encourage that person to buy more Bitcoin. But I would also be willing to forego and spend much of it building new businesses and communities during the latter stages of the 2030s. During opportune times when Bitcoin had demonetised and absorbed much of the M2 supply, exuberance & premium - which had existed in other assets in decades prior. Our work may not be done as Bitcoiners to repeat the ills of the past, but Bitcoin has brought us back normalcy, stability and fairness. What we may now be witnessing today is that Bitcoin's vast adoption and appreciation is peaking... at least in fiat value terms. Most of the S curve is behind us. Ahead may be more growth in alternative assets and businesses, but that is thanks to Bitcoin. It's seen to the return of value. The return of a natural business cycle. Superior returns await Bitcoin when deploying capital rather than stashing scarce satoshis. ## **Reason for posting...** So my question to the fellow pleb readers, what does hyperbitcoinisation look like to you? And will you consider deploying your Bitcoin into the real economy if this thesis is true? When would the humble hodlonaut become a sat-splurger? I would love to know your thoughts below...

@ dff95033:862fbf40

teste

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

asdkvhdkvndiidmdksldvnsd dsksdknsdk fnkfwv

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

posty toasty

@ e42dd2a2:eeddb96f

test test

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

sorry folks

@ aa327517:15b95190

Lexical confinement involves using lexical scope to expose only the correct data and concurrency primitives for multiple concurrent processes to use. It makes it impossible to do the wrong thing. ```go chanOwner := func() <-chan int { // 1 results := make(chan int, 5) go func() { defer close(results) for i := 0; i <= 5; i++ { results <- i } }() return results } // 3 consumer: = func(results <-chan int) { for result := range results { fmt.Printf("Received: %d\n", result) } fmt.Println("Done receiving!") } // 2 results := chanOwner() consumer(results) ``` 1. Here we instantiate the channel within the lexical scope of the `chanOwner` function. This limits the scope of the write aspect of the `results` channel to the closure defined below it. In other words, it confines the write aspect of this channel to prevent other goroutines from writing to it. 2. Here we receive the read aspect of the channel and we're able to pass it into the consumer, which can do nothing but read from it. Once again this confines the main goroutine to a read-only view of the channel. 3. Here we receive a read-only copy of an `int` channel. By declaring that the only usage we require is read access, we confine usage of the channel within the `consumer` function to only reads. Because of the lexical scope, we've made it impossible to do the wrong thing, and so we don’t need to [synchronize memory access](202306081121.md) or share data through communication. Why pursue confinement if we have synchronization available to us? The answer is improved performance and reduced cognitive load on developers. Synchronization comes with a cost, and if you can avoid it you won’t have any critical sections, and therefore you won’t have to pay the cost of synchronizing them.

@ fa984bd7:58018f52

I just hit the big red PUBLISH button on NDK 2.4. (well, actually, I did it from the command line, the big red button is imaginary) ## Codename: Safely Embrace the Chaos Nostr is a, mostly, friendly environment with not too many developers and no ill-intent among them. But this will not always be the case. Compatibility issues, mistakes, and all kinds of chaos is to be expected. This version of NDK introduces validation at the library-level so that clients built using NDK can rely on some guarantees on handled-kinds that events they are consuming comply with what is defined on their respective NIPs. An example? NIP-88, recurring subscriptions, defines that Tier events should have amount tags of what subscribers are expected to pay and the cadence. Prior to NDK 2.4 some malformed events would render like this: https://i.nostr.build/Y4JG.png But with NDK 2.4 the malformed parts of the events don't reach the client code. https://i.nostr.build/wAgJ.png This is just a beginning, but event-validation is now moving into the library!

@ 642ef7b5:40542543

（金管會主委黃天牧） 台灣加密貨幣產業近來風波不斷，甚至連已通過《洗錢防制法》法遵聲明的台灣前三大加密貨幣交易所之一也捲入詐騙案遭檢警調查。對此金管會主委黃天牧昨日表示，管理虛擬貨幣產業需要循序漸進，並借鑑他國經驗，從洗錢防制開始，一步步訂定監理原則，再輔導業者成立公會。 黃天牧並透露，虛擬貨幣產業業者們正在籌設虛擬資產平台公會，預計在今年第一季完成登記，而金管會目前已委外研究針對虛擬資產訂定專法的可行性，預計專法今年 9 月可出爐。但他同時強調，自己的任期只到 5 月 19 日為止，因此無法斷言專法實際落實時間，未來上述專法實際執行是否妥適，以及後續的修法行程等，都會由未來的主委決定。 **去年 3 月金管會正式擔任虛擬資產主管機關** 早在去年 3 月，台灣行政院就確立金管會為虛擬資產監理的主管機關，金管會主委黃天牧也表示，將會朝「客戶資產與平台資產分離」、「商品上下架審查」、「投資人保護」三大方向研擬監理規範。 同月金管會隨即宣布，將擬定針對虛擬資產平台及交易業務事業（VASP）的指導原則、推動 VASP 相關協會等組織訂定自律規範，並在未來與其他部會共同協力。 **臺灣 VASP 公會籌備小組成型、金管會正式發布 VASP 指導原則** 去年 9 月，臺灣虛擬資產平台及交易業務事業公會籌備小組（Taiwan Virtual Asset Service Provider Preparatory Office）正式成立，由前行政院政務委員、理慈國際科技法律事務所共同創辦人、台灣金融科技協會理事長蔡玉玲擔任總顧問，並由 9 家加密貨幣交易所和兌換所成員組成第一階段籌備小組，期望藉此有效整合虛擬通貨業者並自我合規，與政府建立有效且通暢的溝通管道。 同月，金管會正式發布 VASP 指導原則，從十大方面加強平台對客戶保護，包括： （一） 虛擬資產發行面管理 （二）虛擬資產上下架之審查機制 （三）平台資產與客戶資產之分離保管 （四）交易公平及透明度 （五）契約訂定、廣告招攬及申訴處理 （六）營運系統、資訊安全及冷熱錢包之管理機制 （七）資訊公告揭露 （八）內部控制及機構查核 （九）個人幣商 （十） 境外幣商 ＊詳細報導請見：[金管會正式發布 VASP 指導原則！帶你速覽 10 大重點](https://bitnance.vip/news/0dc1348f-aa0d-432d-bad2-b6cc0d1496dc) **明年金檢首納虛擬資產交易平台！** 金管會於上個月底公布 113 年度金融檢查重點，其中首次將「虛擬資產平台及交易業務事業」列為其中一個查核業別，並增列對虛擬資產平台及交易業務事業（VASP）業者之防制洗錢相關檢查事項，宣告將從六大方面落實台灣的金融監理，包括： 1. 將「機構風險評估與內控架構」列入檢查重點 2. 將「客戶審查措施及風險等級評估」列入檢查重點 3. 將「帳戶及交易之持續監控」列入檢查重點 4. 將「可疑交易申報流程及品質」列入檢查重點 5. 將「 VASP 組織與人員」列入檢查重點 6. 列入銀行業之「客戶審查措施及風險等級評估檢查」重點中 ＊詳細報導請見：[金管會明年金檢首納虛擬資產交易平台！6 大重點一次看](https://bitnance.vip/news/db819212-65df-4ba3-bd80-1b21b4fd8fa4) ** 【本文作者張詠晴／幣特財經】 **

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 生命以负熵为食，而发展到智能的人类，则将对环境的”负熵“的社区发挥到了极致，不管从制作特定的工具到AI产品服务于工作，这都是”逆熵“的过程，人们将无序的能量转变为有序的释放，从而供养人类自己，那么对于技术的利用使得我们从无序中释放出来。 因此，我们应该如何看待当下区块链和AI作为互联网的先驱技术，在未来几年内AI是如何赋能并影响加密行业的发展？这些创新将如何塑造加密市场的未来，并为投资者带来哪些新的机遇和挑战？这个问题值得思考。 其实在早期的时候，区块链很多时候都是以Pow——工作量证明的方式来去驱动它的共识机制，那个时候就会有人去质疑比方说比特币的挖矿算法，它是不是一个有意义的事情，觉得可能是浪费资源，那个时候就会有人去探索能不能用一些有意义的计算来去代替这种工作量证明的机制，比方说去做一些AI的计算，但是这也是很难的一个问题，一直没有被解决，但是有很多的尝试。  如今，AI和区块链比较有实际意义的关联关系，或者说AI赋能区块链的案例大概有这么几类： （1）现在AI大模型的发展已经是非常先进了，我们可以通过自然语言的方式来和AI交互，让它去帮助我们做很多的事情，这里面就可以用AI的技术来改善Web3用户的用户体验。现在的区块链有很多种，有很多跨链的操作，用户经常是要去不同的链上移动他的资产，去参与不同链上的生态，那么他就要去管理很多不同类型的钱包，整个的这些操作其实是很复杂的，可能也不知道那些不同生态的链上都在做什么事情。 这时候如果有个AI助手的话，它可以理解你的自然语言的意义，来帮你做一些基本的链上的或者跨链的操作，这个就可以很大程度的去改善用户的使用体验，同时又能更好的把Web2的用户吸引到Web3的场景里来。  （2）另一类就是解脱开发者。从开发者的角度来讲，比如微软的Copilot这种技术，用AI的方式来帮助开发者生成大量的基本的模版代码，大大加速了开发的速度。还有就是可以用AI来做智能合约代码的审计。  （3）用AI的方式来帮助投资人群体做一些智能的投资建议和决策建议。比如在虚拟货币标的的投资上，甚至是量化交易。这也是我们Adot目前在做的事情。我们将链上的数据，与链下以及来自一些去中心化和中心化服务器中的数据聚合起来，经过一系列的数据清洗和筛选，最后通过AI的分析、总结，形成有价值有意义的结论性的内容，提供给web3的投资者、创作者、DAO的贡献者或者一些小白用户。 （4）用区块链来帮助AI，这方面也有很多的探索。比如可以帮助AI管理去中心化的资源，因为现在大部分AI计算的资源都是由大厂垄断的，很多的模型也都不是开源的，先进的技术其实在大厂的封闭环境下产生的，这个世界上还是存在着很多私有的、去中心化的计算资源，比如显卡之类的，如何用区块链的去中心化特性来把这些资源组织起来，来构造一个更加开放、更加透明的AI的模型训练和推理市场环境，这个可以帮助AI朝更加民主的方向发展的。这个趋势就和最近比较火的DePIN的概念也结合起来了。  总的来说，AI代表着一种生产力，区块链代表生产关系，这两种东西实际上是可以相辅相成的存在的，互相是有很多结合点的。但是也面临一些潜在挑战，比如： - 技术风险： 创新涉及到技术整合和新模型的开发，存在技术风险。投资者需要谨慎评估项目的技术可行性和稳定性。 - 法规和合规问题： 区块链和AI的结合可能引发法规和合规的关切。投资者需要关注相关法规的演变，以确保其投资活动合法合规。 - 隐私和安全： 利用AI改善用户体验可能涉及用户数据的处理，引发隐私和安全问题。项目需要采取有效措施来保护用户数据，以避免潜在的安全漏洞。 - 市场波动： 加密市场一直以来都存在较大的波动性。新技术的引入可能导致市场情绪的波动，投资者需要谨慎处理市场风险。 有人常常拿AI带来的技术变革和曾经在历史上的大的技术变革相提并论，但过往的这些技术变革有一个共同特点，即都处于人类的控制之下，并且能够被人类所很好地理解，而当前阶段人工智能带来的技术变革则同历史中产生的技术变革则、明显不同，它具有较强的能动性，它的很多行为和做法并不被人类所理解，或者说完全超出了人类所能够理解的范围。AlphaZero和ChatGPT就是很好的例子。他完全颠覆了我们的生活和工作方式，包括我们这些自视走在科技前沿的伙伴也同样被AI带来的巨大动力震撼。  那么抛开AI可能会产生的道德伦理的问题之外，在当前阶段我们可以借助AI提供哪些增益行为？ 目前，人工智能可以在各个领域带来多种益处。 - 在商业领域，人工智能可用于市场调研和分析，以发现机遇并做出明智决策。 - 人工智能还可以生成内容，例如为新闻文章或报告自动创建内容，这也是目前我们普通人使用AI最常见的一个场景。 - 在考古学领域，人工智能工具可以协助发现历史证据，例如确定古人类是否使用火，这也是一个很有意思的尝试。 - 人工智能可以通过虚拟会议和远程合作解决方案实现远程工作和虚拟协作。 - 医疗诊断和研究：AI可以协助医生进行更精准的疾病诊断，特别是在影像学和基因组学等领域。此外，AI还能加速新药的研发和临床试验的数据分析。 - 教育定制化：利用AI进行个性化教学，根据学生的学习习惯和能力为他们提供定制化的教学内容和进度，从而提高教育效果。 - 环境保护和气候变化研究：AI能帮助科学家更好地理解和预测气候变化，并在环境保护方面发挥重要作用，例如通过分析卫星图像来监控森林砍伐和野生动植物的变化。 - 交通管理和优化：在智能交通系统中，AI可以优化交通流量，减少拥堵，提高道路安全性。 - 自动化和效率提升：无论是制造业、物流还是服务业，AI都能通过自动化流程提高效率，降低成本。 - 语言翻译和跨文化交流：AI在打破语言障碍方面发挥着重要作用，促进了全球范围内的交流和理解。 - 创意产业的创新：在音乐、艺术、写作等领域，AI可以作为一种创新工具，帮助艺术家和创作者探索新的创意和形式。  最近在墙内发生了两件事情争议非常的大，一件是华农学子实名制举报导师造假，另外一件为大家争议在AI时代的当下卷学历是否还有用，那么在这些群体中不乏一些金融科技专业的学生，和互联网的失意人，对于当前的AI技术时代的这些争议我也有些个人的看法。同时伴随SEC审核通过必然会带来大量新人从业者进入这个行业，从教育和就业的角度给这些可能即将会加入到该行业的小伙伴一些建议。 （1）学术诚信与AI时代的挑战：学术诚信是任何时代的基石，无论技术如何发展。AI时代提高了研究的效率和能力，但同时也带来了新的挑战，如数据造假、算法的透明性和可解释性等。对于实名举报导师造假的行为，这反映出年轻一代对学术诚信的重视，也提示了教育和科研机构需要进一步强化学术道德和诚信的教育。 （2）学历的价值：在AI时代，学历仍然重要，但更重要的是持续学习和技能的更新。金融科技领域尤其如此，因为这个领域正在快速发展，需要不断学习新的技术和方法。同时，对于那些转行或失意的互联网从业者来说，重要的是能够迅速适应新环境，学习新技能。 在这里，我想给即将进入金融科技行业的小伙伴一些就业建议： - 终身学习：保持好奇心和学习热情，不断更新自己的知识和技能。 - 跨领域能力：金融科技不仅仅需要技术知识，还需要对金融行业的理解。培养跨学科的能力会更有优势。 - 实战经验：尽可能参与实际项目，实战经验往往比理论知识更重要。 - 网络建设：建立专业网络，参与行业交流，这对职业发展和机会寻找都非常有帮助。 - 适应性和灵活性：在快速变化的行业中，适应性和灵活性至关重要。要准备好面对不断变化的技术和市场需求。 - 对新入行者的建议： - 基础知识：打好基础，无论是金融知识还是技术技能。 - 专业认证和继续教育：考虑获得相关领域的专业认证，如CFA、FRM等，或参加继续教育课程。 - 实习和实践：争取实习机会，获得实际工作经验。 - 关注行业动态：保持对行业最新动态的关注，了解最新的技术发展和监管政策。 总之，虽然AI技术的快速发展带来了许多新的挑战和机遇，但基本的原则如学术诚信、持续学习和适应变化仍然是关键。对于即将进入金融科技行业的新人来说，这些原则尤其重要。 最近看到Max Tegmark《生命3.0》中有段话想和大家分享：古代雅典公民之所以能拥有悠闲的生活,享受民主、艺术和游戏，主要是因为他们蓄养奴隶来做苦工。那么，为何不用人工智能来代替奴隶，创造出一个人人都有权享受的数字化乌托邦呢？ 于是我们提出了数字雅典的构想，作为技术乐观派，我认为当前市面上出现的大量的AI+data analist的工具，在我们日常使用AI做工具进行分析时，常常会有一些重点关注的交易指标，那么这些指标到底有哪些呢？  首先，我个人作为基于AI的Web3搜索引擎——[Adot](https://www.adot.tech)的团队成员，最近也在探索一个不同于Dune、Nansen、Defillama这种链上数据分析的产品方向，希望将链上、链下以及更多内容型数据和指标结合到一起，通过AI的方式进行更广泛、更立体的数据分析。我们更关注真正能表达市场情绪的指标和内容，比如新闻报道、社交媒体帖子、专家评论等。 市场情绪指标在金融分析中越来越受到重视，尤其是在利用人工智能进行市场分析时。市场情绪指标是指反映市场参与者情绪和看法的各种数据和信息，这些情绪可能会对市场价格产生重要影响。  以下是几个重要方面： 新闻和媒体分析：AI工具可以分析新闻报道和金融新闻，以了解市场对特定事件或趋势的反应。例如，政治事件、经济数据公布、公司财报等都可能对市场情绪产生影响。通过自然语言处理（NLP）技术，AI可以从这些新闻中提取情绪倾向，如积极、消极或中立。 - 社交媒体情绪：社交媒体平台，如推特（Twitter）、微博等，是获取市场情绪的宝贵资源。许多投资者和分析师会在这些平台上发表对市场的看法和预测。AI工具可以分析这些帖子，提取有关特定股票、货币或整个市场的情感。 - 专家和分析师评论：专家意见和分析师报告也是市场情绪的一个重要来源。AI可以分析这些评论和报告，以了解行业专家对市场或特定资产的看法。 - 论坛和博客：投资相关的论坛和博客也是获取市场情绪的重要渠道。这些平台上的讨论可以提供对市场动态的深入了解。 - 情绪量化和分析：通过将上述来源的数据进行量化，AI可以生成一个综合的市场情绪指标。这个指标可以帮助投资者判断市场是偏向看涨还是看跌，也可以用来预测市场短期内的波动。 使用AI分析市场情绪时的挑战包括确保数据的质量和代表性，以及正确解释语言的微妙之处。此外，市场情绪是多变的，可能会因突发事件迅速改变。因此，虽然市场情绪指标是一个有价值的工具，但应该与其他类型的分析（如技术分析和基本面分析）结合使用，以获得更全面的市场视角。 总之，在AI与区块链技术的共同推动下，我们正处于一个充满挑战和机遇的新时代。这不仅是技术革命的时代，也是人类社会、经济、文化等多方面深刻变革的时代。随着技术的进步，我们有理由相信，未来的金融科技领域将更加智能、高效和包容，为全人类带来更多的福祉。 

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Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> testing <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

Today, I'd like to share a cherished recipe from my childhood – "Green Borscht." Surprisingly, this soup, once a culinary adversary during my youth, has become a beloved dish in my adult life. My grandmother frequently prepared the green variant, which I stubbornly refused to consume. Strangely, while I had no interest in the red borscht either, the green one held a particular aversion for me. To the extent that my mother had to intervene and request my grandmother not to serve this soup whenever I was around. Nowadays, however, it has evolved into a nostalgic part of my life, symbolizing my childhood. The enticing aroma of green borscht is something I've grown to adore. Whenever the opportunity arises to savor a bowl, I find it impossible to resist. What's fascinating is that this soup can be wonderfully adapted to a vegetarian version. Borscht, a traditional soup, finds its place on tables spanning from Poland, Galicia, Romania, Ukraine, Belarus, to the Volga and Don regions in Russia. While Borscht is commonly associated with its red hue, Ukraine, in particular, boasts a distinctive green variation.  ## Ingredients * 500 g meat (chicken or pork) * 6 potatoes * 100 g pearl barley or rice * 1 onion * 200 g sorrel * 5 eggs * 1 cup of sour cream * 1 bunch Dill * 1 bunch of leeks * salt and pepper ## Preparation **Working hours: approx. 30 min.** Place the meat in boiling salted water. Cut the potatoes into large cubes and add them. Cook pearl barley or rice. When the meat, potatoes and pearl barley are cooked, remove the meat and cut it into small cubes. Finely chop the onion and sorrel and add to the boiling soup. Put the meat back in. Season the soup with salt and pepper and thicken it a little with sour cream. *Boil the eggs hard and add them diced into the finished soup. Scatter finely chopped dill and leek over it.* ## Tip *Other meat can also be used: e.g. B. smoked ham or smoked pork.*

@ 83defd06:45cb69da

test test sorry

@ f977c464:32fcbe00

Güneşin kaybolmasının üçüncü günü, saat öğlen on ikiyi yirmi geçiyordu. Trenin kalkmasına yaklaşık iki saat vardı. Hepimiz perondaydık. Valizlerimiz, kolilerimiz, renk renk ve biçimsiz çantalarımızla yan yana dizilmiş, kısa aralıklarla tepemizdeki devasa saati kontrol ediyorduk. Ama ne kadar dik bakarsak bakalım zaman bir türlü istediğimiz hızla ilerlemiyordu. Herkes birkaç dakika sürmesi gereken alelade bir doğa olayına sıkışıp kalmış, karanlıktan sürünerek çıkmayı deniyordu. Bekleme salonuna doğru döndüm. Nefesimden çıkan buharın arkasında, kalın taş duvarları ve camlarıyla morg kadar güvenli ve soğuk duruyordu. Cesetleri o yüzden bunun gibi yerlere taşımaya başlamışlardı. Demek insanların bütün iyiliği başkaları onları gördüğü içindi ki gündüzleri gecelerden daha karanlık olduğunda hemen birbirlerinin gırtlağına çökmüş, böğürlerinde delikler açmış, gözlerini oyup kafataslarını parçalamışlardı. İstasyonun ışığı titrediğinde karanlığın enseme saplandığını hissettim. Eğer şimdi, böyle kalabalık bir yerde elektrik kesilse başımıza ne gelirdi? İçerideki askerlerden biri bakışlarımı yakalayınca yeniden saate odaklanmış gibi yaptım. Sadece birkaç dakika geçmişti. “Tarlalarım gitti. Böyle boyum kadar ayçiçeği doluydu. Ah, hepsi ölüp gidiyor. Afitap’ın çiçekleri de gi-” “Dayı, Allah’ını seversen sus. Hepimizi yakacaksın şimdi.” Karanlıkta durduğunda, görünmez olmayı istemeye başlıyordun. Kimse seni görmemeli, nefesini bile duymamalıydı. Kimsenin de ayağının altında dolaşmamalıydın; gelip kazayla sana çarpmamalılar, takılıp sendelememeliydiler. Yoksa aslında hedefi sen olmadığın bir öfke gürlemeye başlar, yaşadığın ilk şoku ve acıyı silerek üstünden geçerdi. İlk konuşan, yaşlıca bir adam, kafasında kasketi, nasırlı ellerine hohluyordu. Gözleri ve burnu kızarmıştı. Güneşin kaybolması onun için kendi başına bir felaket değildi. Hayatına olan pratik yansımalarından korkuyordu olsa olsa. Bir anının kaybolması, bu yüzden çoktan kaybettiği birinin biraz daha eksilmesi. Hayatta kalmasını gerektiren sebepler azalırken, hayatta kalmasını sağlayacak kaynaklarını da kaybediyordu. Onu susturan delikanlıysa atkısını bütün kafasına sarmış, sakalı ve yüzünün derinliklerine kaçmış gözleri dışında bedeninin bütün parçalarını gizlemeye çalışıyordu. İşte o, güneşin kaybolmasının tam olarak ne anlama geldiğini anlamamış olsa bile, dehşetini olduğu gibi hissedebilenlerdendi. Güneşin onlardan alındıktan sonra kime verileceğini sormuyorlardı. En başta onlara verildiğinde de hiçbir soru sormamışlardı zaten. İki saat ne zaman geçer? Midemin üstünde, sağ tarafıma doğru keskin bir acı hissettim. Karaciğerim. Gözlerimi yumdum. Yanımda biri metal bir nesneyi yere bıraktı. Bir kafesti. İçerisindeki kartalın ıslak kokusu burnuma ulaşmadan önce bile biliyordum bunu. “Yeniden mi?” diye sordu bana kartal. Kanatları kanlı. Zamanın her bir parçası tüylerinin üstüne çöreklenmişti. Gagası bir şey, tahminen et parçası geveliyor gibi hareket ediyordu. Eski anılar kolay unutulmazmış. Şu anda kafesinin kalın parmaklıklarının ardında olsa da bunun bir aldatmaca olduğunu bir tek ben biliyordum. Her an kanatlarını iki yana uzatıverebilir, hava bu hareketiyle dalgalanarak kafesi esneterek hepimizi içine alacak kadar genişleyebilir, parmaklıklar önce ayaklarımızın altına serilir gibi gözükebilir ama aslında hepimizin üstünde yükselerek tepemize çökebilirdi. Aşağıya baktım. Tahtalarla zapt edilmiş, hiçbir yere gidemeyen ama her yere uzanan tren rayları. Atlayıp koşsam… Çantam çok ağırdı. Daha birkaç adım atamadan, kartal, suratını bedenime gömerdi. “Bu sefer farklı,” diye yanıtladım onu. “Yeniden diyemezsin. Tekrarladığım bir şey değil bu. Hatta bir hata yapıyormuşum gibi tonlayamazsın da. Bu sefer, insanların hak etmediğini biliyorum.” “O zaman daha vahim. Süzme salaksın demektir.” “İnsanların hak etmemesi, insanlığın hak etmediği anlamına gelmez ki.” Az önce göz göze geldiğim genççe ama çökük asker hâlâ bana bakıyordu. Bir kartalla konuştuğumu anlamamıştı şüphesiz. Yanımdakilerden biriyle konuştuğumu sanmış olmalıydı. Ama konuştuğum kişiye bakmıyordum ona göre. Çekingence kafamı eğmiştim. Bir kez daha göz göze geldiğimizde içerideki diğer iki askere bir şeyler söyledi, onlar dönüp beni süzerken dışarı çıktı. Yanımızdaki, az önce konuşan iki adam da şaşkınlıkla bir bana bir kartala bakıyordu. “Yalnız bu sefer kalbin de kırılacak, Prometheus,” dedi kartal, bana. “Belki son olur. Biliyorsun, bir sürü soruna neden oluyor bu yaptıkların.” Beni koruyordu sözde. En çok kanıma dokunan buydu. Kasıklarımın üstüne oturmuş, kanlı suratının ardında gözleri parlarken attığı çığlık kulaklarımda titremeye devam ediyordu. Bu tabloda kimsenin kimseyi düşündüğü yoktu. Kartalın, yanımızdaki adamların, artık arkama kadar gelmiş olması gereken askerin, tren raylarının, geçmeyen saatlerin… Arkamı döndüğümde, asker sahiden oradaydı. Zaten öyle olması gerekiyordu; görmüştüm bunu, biliyordum. Kehanetler… Bir şeyler söylüyordu ama ağzı oynarken sesi çıkmıyordu. Yavaşlamış, kendisini saatin akışına uydurmuştu. Havada donan tükürüğünden anlaşılıyordu, sinirliydi. Korktuğu için olduğunu biliyordum. Her seferinde korkmuşlardı. Beni unutmuş olmaları işlerini kolaylaştırmıyordu. Sadece yeni bir isim vermelerine neden oluyordu. Bu seferkiyle beni lanetleyecekleri kesinleşmişti. Olması gerekenle olanların farklı olması ne kadar acınasıydı. Olması gerekenlerin doğasının kötücül olmasıysa bir yerde buna dayanıyordu. “Salaksın,” dedi kartal bana. Zamanı aşan bir çığlık. Hepimizin önüne geçmişti ama kimseyi durduramıyordu. Sonsuzluğa kaç tane iki saat sıkıştırabilirsiniz? Ben bir tane bile sıkıştıramadım. Çantama uzanıyordum. Asker de sırtındaki tüfeğini indiriyordu. Benim acelem yoktu, onunsa eli ayağı birbirine dolaşıyordu. Oysaki her şey tam olması gerektiği anda olacaktı. Kehanet başkasının parmaklarının ucundaydı. Güneş, bir tüfeğin patlamasıyla yeryüzüne doğdu. Rayların üzerine serilmiş göğsümün ortasından, bir çantanın içinden. **Not:** Bu öykü ilk olarak 2021 yılında Esrarengiz Hikâyeler'de yayımlanmıştır.

@ cef0fd29:4552dd18

Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> test <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ d34e832d:383f78d0

 --- > “Another possible form of ecash could be based on Wei Dai's b-money. This is like hashcash, something which represents a measurable amount of computational work to produce. It therefore can't be forged. This could be a very robust payment system and is worth pursuing further.” # Cashu: Privacy-Preserving Ecash System for Bitcoin > **Cashu** is a free and open-source Chaumian ecash system designed specifically for Bitcoin. Offering near-perfect privacy for users of custodial Bitcoin applications, Cashu ensures that personal information, fund amounts, and transaction parties remain confidential. ## Cashu Protocol: Open and Implementable > Cashu stands as an open ecash protocol available for implementation by anyone. The **Cashu NUTs** (Notation, Usage, and Terminology) outline the specifications for implementing the protocol, making it accessible for developers to build their own wallets. ### Libraries > Various Cashu libraries provide developers with tools to create wallets, mints, and other services that leverage the Cashu protocol. Certainly! Here's a rewritten article in Markdown format: --- # The Cashu Protocol > **Cashu** is an open-source ecash protocol designed for Bitcoin. Being an open protocol, it allows everyone to develop their own software, fostering interaction among various Cashu applications. Applications adhering to the specifications ensure compatibility within the broader ecosystem. ## BDHKE: Blind Diffie-Hellmann Key Exchange > The **Blind Diffie-Hellmann Key Exchange (BDHKE)** serves as the foundational cryptographic scheme within the Cashu protocol for both signing and redeeming ecash tokens. In this model, three essential actors play distinct roles: - **Sending user: Alice** - **Receiving user: Carol** - **Mint: Bob** ### Bob (Mint) - Key Components - **k:** Private key of the mint (distinct for each amount) - **K:** Public key of the mint - **Q:** Promise (blinded signature) ### Alice (User) - Key Components - **x:** Random string (secret message), corresponding to point Y on the curve - **r:** Private key (blinding factor) - **T:** Blinded message - **Z:** Proof (unblinded signature) #### Blind Diffie-Hellmann Key Exchange (BDHKE) Steps 1. **Mint (Bob):** Publishes public key \( K = kG \). 2. **Alice:** Picks secret \( x \) and computes \( Y = \text{hash\_to\_curve}(x) \). 3. **Alice to Bob:** Sends \( B_ = Y + rG \) with \( r \) being a random blinding factor (blinding). 4. **Bob to Alice:** Sends back blinded key \( C_ = kB_ \) (DH key exchange and signing). 5. **Alice:** Calculates unblinded key as \( C_ - rK = kY + krG - krG = kY = C \) (unblinding). 6. **Alice to Carol:** Takes the pair \( (x, C) \) as a token and sends it to Carol. 7. **Carol to Bob:** Sends \( (x, C) \) to Bob, who checks that \( k \times \text{hash\_to\_curve}(x) == C \) (verification). If valid, treats it as a spend of a token, adding \( x \) to the list of spent secrets. ## NUTs: Notation, Usage, and Terminology > **Cashu NUTs** provide detailed specifications for the Cashu protocol. For a comprehensive understanding and implementation guide, refer to the [Cashu NUTs (Notation, Usage, and Terminology) ](https://github.com/cashubtc/nuts). --- Feel free to replace "link-to-nuts" with the actual link to the Cashu NUTs documentation. Adapt the content as needed for your specific context. ## Implementations in Various Languages ### Python ```python # Cashu Nutshell Python Library import cashu_nutshell ``` ### TypeScript ```typescript // Cashu-TS TypeScript Library import cashu_ts from 'cashu-ts'; ``` ### Rust ```rust // Cashu Rust Libraries use cashu_crab; use cashu_rs; ``` ### Golang ```go // Cashu-Feni Golang Library import "github.com/cashu-feni/cashu-feni"; ``` ### Kotlin ```kotlin // Cashu Client Library in Kotlin import cashu_client; ``` ### Dart ```dart // Cashu Dart Library import 'package:cashu_dart/cashu_dart.dart'; ``` ## Cashu Mints ### Nutshell > **Nutshell** serves as the reference mint implementation in Python. ### Moksha > **Moksha** is a Rust-based Cashu wallet and mint, providing additional flexibility and functionality. ### Cashu-rs-mint > **Cashu-rs-mint** stands as a Rust-based mint implementation, offering a robust solution for secure transactions. ### Feni > **Feni** is a Golang mint, contributing to the variety of available mint implementations. ## LNbits Extension > The **Cashu LNbits extension** empowers LNbits users to run their own Nutshell mint, enhancing their control over the security and privacy of their transactions. ---

@ d8a2c33f:76611e0c

**First in, first out.** When ChatGPT was released in November 2022, it was the only chat interface that offered a new way to interact with LLMs. However, in March 2023, they updated it with GPT-4 and introduced the ChatGPT Plus plan. I immediately signed up for the Plus version as it was leaps ahead of the competition and provided real value in responses. Throughout last year, they updated it with additional features such as plugins, code interpreter, custom GPTs, vision, and the GPT store. This also attracted lots of new users, and their backend was not able to keep up with the load. The service started to become slow and unresponsive during peak hours, and the responses became less useful. When I look at my usage, it is always in bursts when I want to get something done. So, often I hit rate limits and have to wait 3-5 hours before it gets reset. As a result, I started using it less and less over time. I am always the guy who is first in line to get any new tech gadgets, but I am also the first one to leave when the service hits its limit. **Don’t leave money on the table** As you know, the same GPT-4 can be accessed using API. If you compare the cost using API, you will need to generate more than 120,000 words to break even with $20. See the picture below. 120,000 words is equivalent to a full book, which translates to at least using it 300+ times in a month. When I looked at my chat history, I was barely crossing 60k words even using it while creating several articles and doing data analysis. So technically, I could have used the GPT-4 API for the same and saved money. So, a $20 all-you-can-eat buffet sounds good on paper until you can’t eat after the second round. **Privacy concerns are huge** LLMs get better and better when you throw good data. So the key differentiator between models is the datasets they use to train. This is why they give away GPT 3.5 for free to collect, review, and train using the data they receive. Only for teams, you can opt out of training based on your data. Elon Musk said it out loud.. “Everyone is training on copyrighted data.” Look what happened to New York Times. While you can be careful, at times you may copy/paste some personal or company private information unknowingly, which can come back. Check this article: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/openai-rolls-out-imperfect-fix-for-chatgpt-data-leak-flaw/ **We are Kept in the dark all the time:** OpenAI regularly updates ChatGPT to enhance its capabilities, such as improving factuality and mathematical reasoning. These updates are crucial to maintain the model's relevance and accuracy. However, the specifics of these updates are not always immediately clear to the public. While OpenAI provides release notes, some users find that changes in model behavior are more readily discussed in forums and blogs rather than through official channels. Also, I simply do not trust OpenAI with my data. We all know about Sam's firing drama that happened in November 2023. Very few details emerged after that event, and no one knows what really happened. Additionally, Ilya Sutskever, who, according to Elon Musk, has a better moral compass, has been missing in action since December 14th. **Easy alternatives exists:** Since GPT-4 is available as an API and so is Claude, Google Gemini Pro, and many other open-source LLMs, this means you can simply set up a user interface to access these LLMs using API and only pay per use. There are many open-source chat interfaces that let you do that. **Here are a couple:** Big-AGI - https://big-agi.com/: You can simply use their web version but input your API keys and use it. You can also download and run it locally without giving away your privacy. Or deploy it on a cloud instance. ChatbotUI - https://www.chatbotui.com/: This is another really good chat interface that you can run locally completely free and open source built by star developer Mckay Wrigley https://github.com/mckaywrigley Bing & Bard: Bing copilot has access to the web and GPT-4. Bard has access to Gemini Pro. Both provide lots of functionality for free when searching, browsing, and utilizing AI to get better results or formats. More and more SaaS products started to integrate AI features right into it so that you don’t have to go outside to access AI. Co-pilots, sidekick, AI knowledge are some of the features that are being rolled out. Wait till Apple WWDC. They are going to have a ton of features integrated into iOS and Mac Apps. Also, depending on your use case, there are several use case-focused AI solutions such as Perplexity for search, POE for AI agents, GoCharlie.ai for blogs, social media posts, and if you want to dig deeper, you can go to https://theresanaiforthat.com/most-saved/ to see other 10,000+ AI solutions. **Run your own AI.** I am a big proponent of open-source LLMs and there are plenty. If you have an Apple silicon MacBook Pro, then you can run small LLMs directly on it. Simply experiment with what you can do or if you want something bigger, you can always build a GPU machine that can host larger models. You can check out this article I wrote before: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/get-your-own-ai-2024-arun-nedunchezian-ymrye%3FtrackingId=WP0hTSn%252FRwymJLIc0fl4Sg%253D%253D/?trackingId=WP0hTSn%2FRwymJLIc0fl4Sg%3D%3D **What am I missing?** Nothing but FOMO. Influencers, AI experts, and other tech reviewers create big FOMO with ChatGPT features and how you can create from websites to earning 6 figures and automate lots of tasks. While these demos are cool to look at, they are often not feasible to use on a daily basis. Also, the whole point of AI is to free you from repetitive tasks rather than being chained to a chat interface all day long. What are your thoughts on ChatGPT and its alternatives? Have you tried any other open-source LLMs or integrated AI features into your own projects? I'd love to hear your experiences and recommendations!

@ 81870f53:29bef6a6

**判定1回または5回** 私は以前、2017 年に著書「市場サイクルをマスターする: 投資機会、リスク、態度、市場サイクル」(市場サイクルをマスターする) を執筆していたときの記事を書きました。その時、私はいくつかのアイデアについて議論していました。息子のアンドリューともう一度話し合いました。「ご存知のとおり、振り返ってみると、私の市場判断は常にほぼ正しかったと思います。」と言うと、彼の答えはいつものように的を射たものでした。 50年間で5回の判決を下した。」 これらの 5 つの例では、個別の覚書発行の前後で、市場は激怒しているか、深刻な低迷のいずれかであったため、私はより防御的になるか攻撃的になることを提案できました。同時に、それが正しい可能性も十分にあります (さらに先に進む前に、これらの判断の背後にある論理は後から考えると正しいように見えますが、だからといって、私が判断を下す際にそれほど恐れていなかったという意味ではないことを明確にさせてください)これらの決定。） 人がどのようにして市場判断を行うのかを説明するために、私がこれら 5 つの判断を下すよう命じられた理由を簡単にまとめておきます (各セクションで引用した同時期のメモで十分なので詳細は説明しません)。 .) 各イベントの説明を読みながら、各エピソードに寄与し、そこから派生した力がどのように次のエピソードにつながるかをよく見てください。私が長い間因果関係の役割を強調してきた理由が理解できるでしょう。市場サイクル。 **II. 2000 年 1 月** 1999 年の秋、テクノロジー、メディア、通信株の急騰を背景に、私はエドワード首相の傑出した本「Devil Take the Hindmost」（悪魔は最後尾を奪う）を読みました。 私は、TMT のブームと歴史的なバブルとの類似点に衝撃を受けました。後者はこの本の主題です。簡単に利益を上げたいという誘惑、日々の仕事を辞めてお金を投資したいという欲求、そして損失を出しても喜んで投資する能力ビジネスモデルでは説明できない企業――こうした感情はすべて、バブルとその痛みを伴う崩壊につながる金融史の流れの中で韻を踏むテーマであり、1999 年が終わりに近づくにつれ、これらすべてが投資家の行動に現れました。 当時私は株式投資に直接関与しておらず、オーク キャピタルの投資ではテクノロジー セクターとの関わりは (あったとしても) ほとんどありませんでしたが、それでも、あまりにも出来すぎていると思われる多くの市場の話を観察していました。それは、2000 年初頭に公開した私のメモ「bubble.com」（bubble.com）の中で述べています。このメモは、ハイテク投資家がどのようにして若い企業の株を天文学的な価格（多くの場合、現在の利益の数倍の価格）で購入できるかについて説明しています。これらの企業は一般的に利益を出していません。実際、多くの企業は収益がありません。この場合、価格は単に概念や希望以上のものに基づいています。私はバブルを資産または産業の不合理な上昇と定義しています。 1990 年代後半の TMT の熱狂はこの定義の一例であるため、私は次のように書きました。 要するに、ハイテク株、インターネット株、通信株が過熱する投機市場であるという証拠をたくさん見つけましたし、過去の熱狂との類似点も同様です... 今のテクノロジー株、インターネット株、通信株について言えば、株価が高すぎて今にも下落しようとしているのは、今日貨物列車の前に立っているようなもので、巨大な好景気の恩恵を受けたと言うのは見るべきである。非常に懐疑的ですが、私はあなたに言うべきだと思います。 私の考えでは、TMT バブルは 2000 年初頭に崩壊しました。他に理由はありません。株価が持続不可能なほど高くなったことです。S&P 500 は 2000 年の高値から 2002 年の安値まで 46% 下落しました。この期間にナスダック総合指数は 80% 下落しました。多くのハイテク株はさらに下落し、電子商取引などの分野の多くの若い企業は最終的に無価値になりました。その後、「バブル」という用語は新世代の日常用語の一部になりました。投資家たち。 **III. 2004 年末から 2007 年半ばまで** 2000 年代半ば、TMT バブルの影響でこのような環境が生まれましたが、私の考えでは、それはゆっくりと発展する列車事故のようなもので、「遅い発展」に重点が置かれていました。 ...あるいは、私のタイミングは正しかったのですが、マイナスの結果が必要以上に長くかかりました。 つまり、連邦準備制度は、TMT バブル崩壊の潜在的な結果に対処するために、フェデラル ファンド金利を新たな最低水準に引き下げるという緩和的な金融政策を実施しているのです。そして今日戻る) 2004 年末、私は次のことに気づきました。 (a) ほとんどの資産クラスで期待リターンが異常に低い。 (b) 投資家はこれらの低い収益を改善しようとしてリスクを追求し、高リスクの「オルタナティブ」投資を受け入れるよう促します。 私は備忘録「ゼイ・ゼイ・ゴー・アゲイン」（2005年5月）でこれらのオルタナティブ投資のいくつかを指摘し、住宅用不動産についての議論にほとんどの時間を費やした。なぜなら、これは投資家が犯している最も明らかな間違い、つまり価格が上昇するだけだと信じているからである。投資家の傾向についても説明しました。 (a) 過去のサイクルの教訓を無視し、 (b) 新しい展開に混乱している、 (c) ベンチャーキャピタルは、「今回は違う」、「ハイリスクはハイリターンを意味する」、または「うまくいかなかったら辞める」などの決まり文句に導かれて流入する。これらの論理的間違いの多くは、不動産市場の投資家によって作られています。 この時期のオーク キャピタルの行動の原動力は、これらのどれでもなく、代わりに、オーク キャピタルの共同創設者であるブルース カーシュと私は、収益率が低いことを特徴とするクレイジーな取引について文句を言うために毎日お互いのオフィスを歩いて過ごすことに多くの時間を費やしていました。投資、リスクが高く、発行者にとっては多くのオプションがあり、これらを簡単に市場に出すことができます。 「そのような取引が成立するのであれば、市場に何か問題があるに違いない」という意見には誰もが同意しますが、慎重さ、自制心、価値観、あるいはチャンスを逃す恐怖に抵抗する能力を示す人はほとんどいないと考えられます。不適格証券の発行を防ぐための規律が必要であるが、当時はその機能を果たしておらず、憂慮すべき状況であることがわかる。 これらの観察は、当時一般的だった高価格と低い期待リターンの認識とともに、私たちが通常の防衛力の重視を大幅に強化することを確信させました。一部の戦略ではまったく資金を提供しない）、潜在的な新規投資を評価するための基準を大幅に引き上げました。 2007 年 7 月に、私はメモ「It's All Good」(It's All Good) を出版しましたが、その中で私はより重点を置きました (そしてタイミングも良かったです)。 私たちはこのサイクルのどの位置にいるのでしょうか? 私の意見では、神秘的なものは何もなく、低レベルの疑い、恐怖、リスク回避が見られました。 ほとんどの人がベンチャーキャピタルに積極的に参加するのは、通常、従来の安全な投資で約束された収益が非常に低いように見えるためです。 これは、安全な投資への関心の欠如とベンチャーキャピタルの受け入れによってリスクと報酬のラインがかなりフラットになったとしても当てはまります。リスクプレミアムは一般的に私がこれまで見た中で最もケチですが、それでも増加するリスクを受け入れることを拒否する人はほとんどいません応答... 私が「It's All Good」を書いてから 8 か月後、サブプライム住宅ローンに投資するファンドの圧力でベアー スターンズ (ベア スターンズ) が破綻しました。そして 9 月中旬、私たちはバンク オブ アメリカ (バンク オブ アメリカ) を目にしました。 ）メリルリンチ（メリルリンチ）の救済、リーマン・ブラザーズ（リーマン・ブラザーズ）の破綻、そしてアメリカン・インターナショナル・グループ（AIG）への緊急金融支援。 S&P 500 指数は 2009 年 2 月に 735 ポイントの安値まで下落し、2007 年の高値である 1,549 ポイントから 53% 下落しました (私が「今日のリスクとリターン」(今日のリスクとリターン) を早すぎて発表したときの水準よりも 39% 低くなりました) ）。 重要なのは、オーク キャピタルはサブプライム モーゲージや住宅ローン担保証券にはまったく関与していないことです。さらに、これらの資産は投資コミュニティの比較的片隅で取引されており、そこで何が起こっているのかについてはほとんどわかりません。慎重な結論は、あるテーマについての専門家の意見に基づいたものではなく、むしろ私が「市場温度の測定」と呼ぶものの異常に良い例でした（以下を参照）。 **4. 2008年末** 2008 年 9 月初旬、世界は比較的平静に見えましたが、前述したように同月中旬にリーマン・ブラザーズ社の破産申請が発生し、市場は急速に崩壊しました。リーマン・ブラザーズの破産は、ベアー・スターンズが独立した組織として存在しなくなったときに始まった論理的なプロセスの一部であり、最終的には世界的な金融システムの崩壊につながる可能性がありました。大文字で書くと金融危機が私たちに迫っていたのです。 私たちが目の当たりにしている無謀さ (前のセクションを参照) が最終的に当社の不良債権戦略に大きな買いの機会を生み出すことを期待して、オーク キャピタルは 2007 年 1 月から 2008 年 3 月まで不良債権のために 110 億ドルの「準備基金」を組織しました。 このファンドは、状況が危機の段階に達した場合に、投資資金を提供するために 2008 年半ばまでに設立されました。その前身のファンドは全額投資されたばかりだったため、リーマンが破産する前に、私たちはゆっくりと積立金への投資を開始しました。 リーマンショック後の市場不安の中、基金の資金を継続投資するのか、それとも積立金として運用するのか、それともスロットルを絞るのか、これが底なのか、どう進めるのが最優先課題でした。今後何が起こるのかをどのように判断すればよいでしょうか?特殊な状況と多くの不明点を考慮すると、信頼できる金融セクターの崩壊の歴史はなく、これらの問題に対処する賢明な方法もありません。将来は不確実であったため、私たちは唯一の分析フレームワークを適用しました。 (非常に単純ですが)次のように考えることができます。 この見通しには 2 つのポイントがあると思います: 世界は終わるのか、終わらないのか? 「イエス」と言えないなら、「ノー」と言って、それに応じて行動しなければなりません。特に、「終わる」と言うのは不作為につながりますが、「終わらない」と言うのは不作為につながります。 end を使用すると、過去に機能していたことができるようになります。 私たちの投資は、世界が継続し、企業が利益を上げ、価値があり、長期的には債権を低価格で購入することが可能であるという前提に基づいています。他にどのような選択肢がありますか? 。 現在の悪循環がどのように断ち切れるかは誰も想像できないようですが、必ず断ち切られると想定しておく必要があるのでしょう。 2年前と同じように、人々は以前は真実だと考えられなかったことが正しいと受け入れられつつあることに注意することが重要です。当時の見方は、大規模なレバレッジがかかったバランスシートは金融工学の奇跡によって安全になったというものでした。今日では、重要な金融セクターとその最大の機関は生き残ることができません... (「誰も知らない」、2008 年 9 月 19 日) 上記の推論により、私たちは、投資した後に金融界が崩壊した場合、私たちが何をするかは問題ではない、しかし、投資しなかったのに金融が崩壊しなかった場合、私たちは義務を果たしていないという結論に達しました。良い。 その結果、私たちは金融界が存続するという根拠のない仮定を立て、これは積極的に投資すべきであるという結論に達しました。ブルース・カーシュのチームは多額の投資を行い、9 月 18 日から 9 月 18 日まで毎週平均 4 億ドルを投資しました。年末までに、実質的に 1 四半期で合計 60 億ドルに達しましたが、その間にオーク キャピタルの残りのチームによる買収により、投資総額は 75 億ドルになりました。 オーク キャピタル以外では、実際に資金を投じてくれる人や、私たちが正しいことをしているかもしれないと喜んで認めてくれる人に出会うことはめったにありません。 ?!」 同じ頃、クライアントの代理店の CIO とも面会し、レバレッジ削減のためのファンドの自己資本調達の一環として、同ファンドは追加保証金の通知の対象となりそうになっており、すべてのことにきちんと対応しましたが、彼女のますますネガティブな状況について、私たちは彼女が「それほど悪くはないだろう」と認める段階に達したことはありません。 この抑えがたい悲観主義の表れは、当時はとても一般的だったようですが、私が購入した資産の価格には楽観的な見方はほとんどなく、損失を被る可能性は最小限であると確信させました。日： 懐疑と悲観は同義ではなく、楽観が行き過ぎると懐疑が悲観を招きますが、悲観が行き過ぎると楽観が生まれることもあります…。 弱気市場の第 3 段階では...状況はさらに悪化するだけであるということに誰もが同意しました。機会費用や利益の剥奪という点でのリスクも明らかです。私の考えでは、弱気市場が到達したことは疑いの余地がありません「これは、これ以上下落しないことや強気相場が始まることを意味するものではありません。しかし、それは、ネガティブな要素がテーブルの上にあり、楽観的な見方が完全に欠如していることを意味します。投資をしないことには、より大きな長期リスクが潜む可能性があります。 2003 年から 2007 年の景気サイクルの上昇局面における行き過ぎ、間違い、愚かさは、私がこれまで見た中でも最悪でした。その後のパニックも同様でした。証券価格へのダメージは、これらの行き過ぎを是正するには十分かもしれません。行き過ぎても、行き過ぎても、しかし、今は瓦礫の中から物を選ぶのに間違いなく良い時期です (The Limits of Negativism、2008 年 10 月 15 日) 重要なのは、(a) 最近買収した優良企業から最優先の社債を購入していること、(b) 債務残高を上回るほどの低価格で購入していることにより、準備金資本への投資に対する当社の自信が強化されていることです。たとえこれらの企業の最終価値が買収ファンドが支払った額の4分の1または3分の1に過ぎなかったとしても、企業は好業績をあげるだろう。 不安を抱えた CIO との訪問などの合間に、リーマン後の市場温度は低すぎる、恐怖が多すぎて貪欲が少なすぎる、悲観が多すぎて楽観主義が少なすぎる、リスク回避が多すぎてリスク許容度が低すぎる、ということが分かりました。これらのことがすべて現実になると、次のことが当然のことになります。 (a) 投資家の期待が低い。 (b) 資産価格が高すぎない可能性があります。 (c) 投資家が失望する可能性は低い。 (d) その結果、損失が継続する可能性は低く、価格が上昇する可能性が高い、つまり買いチャンスの縮図である。 **5. 2012/3** 2000 年半ばに TMT バブルが崩壊した後、S&P 500 は 2000 年、2001 年、2002 年に下落しました。これは 1939 年以来、3 年連続でマイナスのリターンとなったのは初めてでした。これらの下落により、多くの投資家は株式への関心を失いました。数年前までは、株価は長期間にわたって良いパフォーマンスを発揮できないという考えが広く広まっていました。 株式市場に幻滅がもたらされ、それがおそらく市場で最も強い力の一つであったため、投資家は市場に背を向けました。 最初の数年間は、連邦準備理事会が利回りを非常に低く抑えたため、株式や債券への関心が薄れ、多くの投資家が従来の資産クラスでは目標リターンを得ることができないと結論付けるようになりました。オルタナティブ投資への資金の流れが生まれ、最初はヘッジファンド、次にプライベートエクイティへと流れました。 やがて世界的な金融危機や金融セクターの破綻懸念に投資家はネガティブな感情を強め、これらの展開は投資家心理に深刻な影響を与え、その結果、S&P 500指数は2000年から2011年までほぼ横ばいで推移し、平均値は12 年間のリターンは年間わずか 0.55% です。 これは、2012 年 3 月に私が「既視感をもう一度」というメモを書いたときのケースでした。私のインスピレーションは、チリへの出張中に眠れずにいたことから来ており、オーク キャピタルをオープンしました。何か読もうとバッグを探していたところ、古い記事を見つけたのでもう一度読みたいと思いました。なぜなら、現在の環境と記事に記載されている環境に類似点を感じたからです。 この記事は、歴史上投資に関する最も重要な雑誌記事の 1 つである「株式の死」です。この記事は 1979 年 8 月 13 日の「ビジネスウィーク」に掲載されました。株式市場は振るわなかった。 一言で言えば、この投稿の主題は、株式のパフォーマンスがこれほど長期間にわたり非常に悪いため、もう誰も株式に投資しなくなるということです。 原因が何であれ、インフレの制度化とその波及と心理の構造的変化は、何百万もの投資家にとって米国の株式市場を壊滅させた。 投資家の皆様へ…株価低迷が依然として購入の足かせとなっております… そうなると、良くも悪くも、米国経済は株式の死をほぼ恒久的な状況と見なさざるを得なくなるかもしれない――いつかは反転するだろうが、すぐには反転しないだろう… 幅広い投資家の関心を集め、信頼を回復するには、強気相場が一度に数年続く必要があります。 つまり、業績不振により投資家の関心が薄れ、関心の欠如により業績不振が継続するという、市場で時折見られる止められない悪循環が生じているのではないかと著者は考えています。何年も続けること。 投資界の多くの議論と同様、「株式の死」の主張は表面的には合理的であるように思えます。 しかし、もう少し深く掘り下げると、特にリバース投資家のように考えれば、論理的な欠陥が簡単に明らかになります。株式に対する楽観主義と熱意が低いレベルであれば、それは状況が悪化しないことを意味します、それで、何ですか? それは、状況が良くなっているという意味ではありませんか? この場合、株価の低迷は停滞が続くのではなく、将来の上昇を示していると考えるのが合理的ではないでしょうか? 上の文章は、平均的な投資家の考え方と、私が「第 2 レベルの考え方」と呼ぶものの違いを簡単に説明しています。後者は第一印象には依存しません。それどころか、より深く、より複雑で、より微妙です。特に、第二レベルの思想家は、一般的な信念が市場を形作ることを理解していますが、それらの信念が冷静な分析ではなく感情に基づいている場合は、支持ではなく反対に賭けるべきであることがよくあります。 平均的な投資家にとってマイナス要因は明白であり、その結果、マイナスの結論に達しましたが、表面的な見方や感情ではなく、論理と洞察力を働かせる投資家にとっては、大きく異なるものが見えてくるでしょう。 したがって、より経験豊富な投資家にとって、おそらく株式市場についてこれまでに書かれた中で最も徹底的に暗い記事である「株式の死」の後に、市場の歴史の中で（唯一ではないにしても）最も好調な時期の一つが続いたのは驚くことではありません。 1979 年 (記事執筆時) から 1999 年 (TMT バブル崩壊直前) までの 21 年間、S&P 500 の年間平均リターンは 17.9% でした。これは長期平均のほぼ 2 倍であり、1979 年の 1 ドルを 1 ドルに換算するのに十分です。 1999年には32ドル！ もう一度、「Everything Seems Familiar Again」からの抜粋です。 重要なのは、1979 年のこの上昇は、マイナス要因の蓄積と過度に悲観的な割引によって舗装されたということです...その推論が旗を掲げ、株を諦めた時期であり、リバース投資家が楽観的になった時期でした。それは常にこのようです。 .. ここでの最大の皮肉は、外挿者が自分が歴史を尊重していると本気で思っていることです: 彼はすでに進行中の傾向が今後も続くと想定しているのです。しかし、彼の注目に値する歴史は最近の資産価格の上昇や下落ではなく、ほとんどのことが最終的に証明されたという事実でした。周期的であり、極端な状態から平均的な状態に戻る傾向があります。 2012 年に「株式の死」を再読しましたが、その記事を書いた当時と現在の環境の類似点がすぐにわかりました。最近の出来事は非常にネガティブで、パフォーマンスは悪く、投資家心理は低下しています。歴史の教訓から恩恵を受けて、私が前向きな立場を取るには、それだけで十分でした。 (2012 年の) ストーリーは 1979 年ほど絶望的ではありませんが、どれも同様にネガティブです。その結果、その後「株式の死」のような株価上昇が起こるとは予想していませんでしたが、容易に想像できました。私の頭の中にあるポジティブなシナリオ。 結果: 2012 年 — 「すべてが再びわかったようだ」の年 — から 2021 年まで、S&P 500 のリターンは年間 16.5% でした。再び過度のネガティブなセンチメントが急激な上昇につながりました。それは単純です。 **2020年3月6日** 5 つの判決のうち最後の判決は、読者がその背景を思い出すのに十分近いものでしたが、新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミックの初期に行われたもので、この病気がほとんどの人々の意識に入り始めたのは 2020 年 2 月で、その後、S&P 500 は前年比約 3 分の 1 に下落しました。 2月中旬から3月中旬。 パンデミック中の私の最初のメモである「誰も知らない 2」（2020 年 3 月）で、私はハーバード大学の疫学者マーク・リプシッチの言葉を引用しました。彼はポッドキャストで、この病気を理解しようとする中で、私たちは次のように述べました。 (a) 事実 (b) 他のウイ​​ルスの類推から導き出された十分に文書化された推論 (c) 意見や推測 しかし、当時の私にとってそれは非常に明白でした。流行の将来の方向性についての「事実」はなく、推測できる同様の規模の「他のウイルスの歴史」もありませんでした。 「意見または推測」 上記の結論は、簡単に言えば、私たちは未来がどうなるかわからないということです。しかし、未来について無知であるということは何も行動を起こせないことを意味すると考える人もいますが、論理的かつ冷静に考える人は、無知はそうではないということを認識すべきです。必ずしも、あるべき場所にあるとは限りません (これは、リーマン後の時代におけるオーク キャピタルの考え方と非常によく似ています)。 2 週間後の 2020 年 3 月 19 日、私は顧客限定の週次更新で同様の結果を出しました。 私の意見を簡潔にまとめます。複雑なことは何も言えないからです。 「底」とは、回復が始まる前日を指します。したがって、いつ底に達するかを知ることは絶対に不可能です...決してありません。オークキャピタルは、底を待つという概念に明確に反対しており、安く価値が得られるときに購入します。 底がすぐそこまで来ているとは言えないにしても、手の届く範囲で駆け引きできる条件は確実に揃っている。 これまでに見られた価格の下落と販売を考慮すると、今は投資に適した時期であると確信していますが、もちろん最適な時期ではないことが判明する可能性があります。 今日、お金をすべて使ってしまうべきだということに異論を唱える人はいないでしょう...しかし、繰り返しになりますが、まったく使わないほうがよいということに異論を唱える人はいないでしょう。 上で説明した市場の判断の一部は歴史的知識や論理的分析に依存していますが、この推奨事項は主に無知の告白に基づいています。しかし、長期投資家は、S&P 500 指数が 2 月の 3,386 ポイントで最高値を記録したときにどれだけの金額を株式に投資したとしても、約 1 か月後に 2,237 ポイントに達したときにポジションを増やすことを検討する必要があります。 「それは合理的ではありませんか? それが私の推論の本質です。私がその結論に達するまでの過程を段階的に説明します: 市場にパニックに近いものが現れたと言うのは簡単で、過去 1 か月間で記録的な下落率がいくつか見られました (これを超えたのは 1940 年以降のブラックマンデーだけです — 1987 年 10 月 19 日 — S&P 500 は 1 日で 20.4% 下落しました)。今週と先週の下落を含む日は、-7.6%、-9.5%、-12.0%、昨日は-5.2%となっており、これは大きな損失です... ... 人々は現金を出そうと先を争っている。ロングポジションとショートポジションの両方が手仕舞われている – 混乱と不確実性の明らかな兆候である。マネーマーケットファンドでは現金が大幅に増加した。これはファンダメンタルズについては何も語らないが、最終的な市場パフォーマンスの見通しは改善しました。 売れる人が増えれば増えるほど、 売れるものが少なくなり、 彼らが悲観的でなくなると、より多くの現金を購入に使用できるようになります... （当社のトレーダーの一人、ジャスティン・クアグリア氏の言葉）2日間にわたる基本的な停滞ながらも（債券）市場の激しい圧力を経て、「ついに輪ゴムが切れた」。私たちは市場を 3 ～ 5 ポイント下げて取引を開始しましたが、ウォール街はリスクを取るかどうか再び躊躇しました... 私たちは破壊的な出来事、特に今日起こっている出来事を見て喜んだことはありませんが、ジャスティンが上で述べたような感情こそが、感情的な売り込みを促し、最高のお買い得品を買うことを可能にしてくれるのです。 歴史的根拠や厳密な定量分析は利用できませんが、上記の段落は、適切な行動方針を論理的に決定できることを示しています。 資産価格が急激に下落したという事実以外に何がわかっているのかというと、資産保有者の冷静に物事を保持する能力が失われ、刺激的な販売が増加しているという事実だ。 しかし、それだけで十分です。立ち止まる必要はありません。むしろ、ほとんどの投資家の恐怖と、その結果として生じる価格の急落を利用するのに役立つ手順があります。場合によっては、それが簡単なこともあります。ほとんどの投資家の本能的な反応が立ち止まることであるとき、 「売るか売るか、おそらく必要なのは、購入という逆の投資判断を下すことです。しかし、これを行うのは決して簡単ではなく、2020 年 3 月中旬は私が経験した中で最も困難な環境の 1 つでした。しかし、重要なのは - - ラドヤード・キプリングが彼の詩「What If」で書いたように - 「周りの人が正気を失ったときでも、頭をすっきりさせてください...」 **7. どうすればそんなことができるのですか?** 私は最初の数ページを使ってこれら 5 つの判断を説明しましたが、それは自己満足ではなく、個人が市況についてどのように有益な観察を行うことができるかを議論するための基礎を築くためでした。しかし、そこから本当に学ぶためには、時には一歩下がって、一連の出来事全体を見て、次のことを理解する必要があります。 (a) 何が起こったのか、 (b) 繰り返しのパターンがあるかどうか。 (c) このモデルからどのような教訓を学ぶことができますか? 時折、おそらく 10 年に 1 回か 2 回、市場が非常に上昇したり下落したりするため、行動する理由が説得力があり、それが正しい可能性が高くなります。息子が私に気づかせてくれたように、私はそのうち 5 回を特定しました。しかし、50 年間で 50 回の市場判断を下そうとしたらどうなるでしょうか? ... それとも 500 年でしょうか? 定義上、市場に対する私の判断は中間点に近いはずです。おそらく高いか低いかもしれませんが、信頼できる結論を導き出すほど極端ではありません。投資家は市場での判断において成功した実績が乏しいのです。資産の価格が高すぎるということは、何かが少し高すぎてさらに大幅に高価になり、その後深刻なバブルに変わることが簡単に起こり、またその逆も同様です。 実際、軽微な価格設定の間違いが常に即座に修正されることが期待できれば、それらが時折見られる狂乱、バブル、暴落に発展することは決してありません。 ですから、マクロ的な判断をあまり頻繁にしないことが重要であり、私はコイントスの結果を予測したり、シーズン中のすべてのラグビーの試合で人気のあるチームが点差で勝つことができるかどうかを判断したりして生計を立てようとは思いません。 ウォーレン・バフェット氏が言ったように、自分のスポットを選択し、良いスローボールを待つ必要があります。ほとんどの場合、継続的に市場に参入することをやめても、失うものは何もありません。市場の市場に参加しているだけです。これらは通常、非常に有益です。 読者の皆さんもご存じのとおり、私はマクロ経済予測が一貫して利益をもたらす市場の判断を下せるとは思っていません。また、企業レポートを分析するだけで市場に勝つことができるとも私は信じていません。これら 2 つの問題については、アンドリューが述べたように (私の 2021 年 1 月のメモ「サムシング」を参照してください) 「価値の」）、「過去と現在に関する容易に入手可能な定量的データ」は、誰もが利用できるため、優れたパフォーマンスの秘密を保持するものではありません。 市場が極端な高水準または低水準にある場合、将来のパフォーマンスを適切に把握するための基本的な要件は、現在の状況を引き起こしている原因を理解することです。誰もが経済、金融、会計を学び、市場がどのように機能するかを理解することができます。 。 しかし、優れた投資結果は、物事がどのように機能するべきかということと、現実世界でどのように実際に機能するかという違いを発見することから生まれます。これを行うための基本的なインプットは、経済データや財務諸表の分析ではありません。鍵となるのは、一般的な投資家の考え方を理解することです。 私にとって、人間がしなければならないことはすべて、「市場の温度を測定する」という一般的な見出しに当てはまります。以下に、最も重要な要素を 1 つずつリストします。 パターン認識に取り組みます。今日の出来事の意味をより深く理解するために市場の歴史を調査します。皮肉なことに、長期的には、投資家のセンチメントとその結果として生じる市場サイクル（不安定で予測不可能に見えるものですが）は、ほぼ信頼できる方法で変動します（その気になれば）劇的な変化の原因、タイミング、規模を無視すること）。 このサイクルは私が「過剰と調整」と呼ぶものから生じており、一方向への強い動きは、遅かれ早かれ「空に向かって上昇する」傾向ではなく、反対方向への調整に従う可能性が高いことを理解してください。 ほとんどの人が非常に楽観的になって物事は良くなるばかりだと考えている瞬間に注目してください。これは、「何も高すぎるものはない」という危険な考えを証明するためによく使われる表現です。同様に、人々が非常に落ち込んで物事が良くなると判断しているときを認識してください。人々が盲目的に楽観的になるか、終わりが来ると、現在の価格水準と方向性が持続可能ではなくなる可能性が高まります。 覚えておいてください。極端な状況では、お金を稼ぐ秘訣は、上で説明した理由から、トレンドに従うのではなく、反転投資することです。感情的な投資家が資産の将来について極端な見方をし、それによって価格を不当なレベルに引き上げる場合、「簡単に」 「お金」は、その逆のことをすることで得られることがよくあります。しかし、これは、常にコンセンサスから単に逸脱することとは大きく異なります。実際、ほとんどの場合、コンセンサスは、ほとんどの個人が正しい理解に最も近いものです。 したがって、リバース投資で成功するには、次のことを理解する必要があります。 (a) 群衆が何をしているのか、 (b) なぜ彼らはこんなことをするのか、 (c) これを行うことの何が問題なのか、 (d) 代わりに、何を行うべきか、そしてその理由。 経済や市場で起こることの多くは機械的なプロセスの結果ではなく、むしろ投資家心理の行き来によってもたらされることに留意し、変動に注意し、可能な場合にはそれを利用してください。 自分自身の感情に抵抗し、群衆やその心理から離れ、参加しないでください。 非論理的な命題に注意してください。広く受け入れられているが根拠のない命題、または真実であるには良すぎる (または真実であるには悪すぎる) 命題に遭遇した場合は、適切な行動をとってください。 市場の温度を測定する際には、克服すべきことがまだたくさんありますが、私の意見では、コンピューター、財務データ、計算よりも重要なのは、見られる取引の影響を明確に観察し、評価することです。 以下についてさらに詳しく説明します。 パターン認識について: これら 5 つの判断のうちの最初の判断が 2000 年に行われたことにお気づきかもしれませんが、そのとき私は投資業界で 30 年以上働いていました。いいえ、市場の行き過ぎを理解するために必要な洞察と経験を得るのに非常に長い時間がかかったということだと思います。 最も注目に値するのは、私はこの記事で 2 ページを費やして「株式の死」の重大な間違いを説明しましたが、おそらくお気づきでしょうが、この記事が 1979 年に「ビジネスウィーク」に掲載されたとき、私は何も述べていませんでした。は簡単です: 私は本当にそうではありません。当時、私はこの業界に約 10 年いたので、(a) この記事の間違いを認識するのに必要な経験がありませんでした、そして (b) 経験がありませんでした。群衆から抜け出し、彼らの議論に抵抗するために必要な、非感情的な立場と逆投資の実践を形成しました。私が言えることは、これらの特性を究極的に発達させたおかげで、33 年後に同じ間違いが戻ってきたときに、同じ間違いを見つけることができたということですパターン認識は私たちの活動の重要な部分ですが、本から学ぶだけではなく、現場での時間と多少の傷跡が必要なようです。 サイクルについて: 私の著書「サイクル: 投資機会、リスク、態度、市場サイクル」では、サイクルの定義は一連の上下の変動ではなく、それぞれの変動が定期的に次の変動に続くものです。これが一般的な定義だと思います。 — むしろ、各イベントが次のイベントにつながる一連のイベントです。この因果関係がサイクルを理解する鍵となります。 特に、経済、投資家の心理、市場はいずれかの方向に進みすぎて、ポジティブになりすぎたり、ネガティブになりすぎたりして、最終的には中間で適度に揺れ動くことになると思います（その後、通常は大きく揺れ動きます）反対方向）。 したがって、私の意見では、これらのサイクルは「行き過ぎと修正」から生じるものとして理解するのが最も適切であると考えられます。個々の出来事の詳細を無視すれば、バーゲンを買う最良の機会が過度のネガティブな支配的な心理から生じることは、これらの 5 つの判決の記述から明らかです。 、一方、高すぎる価格で販売する最良のチャンスは過度の楽観主義から始まります。 **8. マクロ判断とオーク資本文化** 市場の判断というテーマに関して、私のメモ「知識の幻想」（2022年9月）の出版以来、何度も受けてきた2つの質問について触れたいと思います。この質問では、市場の判断がなぜそれほど難しいと私が考えるのかについて説明しました。有益なマクロ予測を作成します。 こうした市場の判断をオーク キャピタルの投資アプローチにどのように組み込むことができるのでしょうか?また、マクロの状況を予測せずに、企業、業界、証券に関する「ミクロな予測」を行うにはどうすればよいでしょうか? 1995 年にオークツリーの 4 人の共同創設者と私が新しい会社を立ち上げることを決めたとき、私たちは平均 9 年間協力してきました。新しい会社の指針となる投資アイデアを思いつくには、次のことが必要です。これまで私たちがうまくいってきたこと、そして私たちが信じていることを振り返ります。これにより、私たちは投資方法を説明する 6 つの原則を書き留めることになり、28 年間一言も変更していません。 これら 6 つの原則のうち、2 つはマクロ経済の判断がオーク キャピタルの投資手法にどのように組み込まれるかについて疑問を引き起こします。 第 5 条：「当社の投資決定はマクロ予測に基づいていない。」 第6条：「私たちは市場の時間を奪う者ではありません。」 最初のものは何を言っていますか? マクロ予測に基づいて投資しないと言うのは簡単です。私はこれを何十年も言い続けています。しかし真実は、もしあなたがボトムアップ投資家であれば、そうするでしょう。将来の利益や資産価値を見積もる場合、これらの見積はマクロ環境に関する仮定に基づいている必要があります。もちろん、その時点で経済に何が起こるかを考慮せずに、企業のパフォーマンスを予測することはできません。それでは、マクロ予測を避けることは私たちにとって何を意味するのでしょうか? 私の答えは次のとおりです。 私たちは通常、将来のマクロ環境が過去の正常な環境と同様であると想定します。 投資に豊富な「安全域」を持たせることで、将来のマクロ経済の発展が多少期待外れであっても、うまくいく可能性が高くなります。 私たちが決してしないことは、特定の投資を勝者にするために、マクロ環境が通常よりも大幅に良くなると予測することです (ある意味)。これを行うと、予測が正しければ利益が得られる可能性がありますが、そのような予測をすべて正しく行うことは困難です。さらに、マクロ経済の有利な展開に依存した投資は、投資家を失望させ、損失をもたらす可能性があります。 私たちの目標は、予期せぬ有益な投資ポートフォリオを構築することです。楽観的な基本的な仮定に依存することは、このプロセスに含まれる可能性は低いです。私たちは、いわゆる「中立的な」仮定を立てることを好みます。 したがって、私たちのモデリングは確かに巨視的な仮定に基づいています – それは必要です – しかし、それらが大胆で、具体的で、または楽観的であることはめったにありません。私たちが求める平均よりも高い結果は、異常なマクロイベントを予測する優れた能力からではなく、根底から構築する洞察から得られるものでなければならないことを認識してください。 ここであなたは、「覚書『海の変化』と、私たちがまったく異なる環境への移行を目の当たりにしているかもしれないというその主張について、あなたは何と言いますか？」と尋ねるかもしれません。私の答えは、この覚書については良いと思っているということです。 (a) 主に最近の歴史の振り返りです。 (b) 2009 年から 2021 年までの期間の異常な性質、その投資結果への影響、およびそのありそうもない繰り返しに関する主な観察 (私は、金利がこの時点からさらに 2,000 ベーシスポイント低下することはないと特に確信しています)。 指導原則に従うことは重要ですが、実際の変化が起こったときにそれを認識して対応することも重要です。したがって、私は標準的な実践からの許容できる逸脱として Sea Change を支持します (これまでのキャリアの中でこの意見を表明したのはこれだけです)私にとって、海と桑畑の変化は、予測というよりも観察と推論が重要です。 では、市場のタイミングはどうでしょうか? 数年前にリスク姿勢のフレームワークを開発して以来、私は、すべての投資家はほとんどの場合、通常のリスク姿勢で運用すべきであると何度も書いてきました。つまり、投資家にとっての攻撃と防御の適切なバランスのことです。 環境がこのバランスを変更するよう迫っており、あなたの判断が正しい可能性が高い場合、これまでに説明した 5 つの判断と同様に、変更することは完全に理にかなっています。 したがって、変更する必要がない限り、通常のバランス (オーク キャピタルの場合は守備の偏りを意味します) を維持します。しかし、攻撃と守備のバランスを変えることに喜んで取り組んでおり、実際、私の主な責任の 1 つは、オーク キャピタルの適切なバランスを常に考慮することだと考えています。 私たちが喜んでリスクに対する姿勢を変えるのであれば、「私たちは市場の時間を選ぶ人ではない」とは何を意味するのでしょうか? 私にとって、それは次のことを意味しました。 市場が下落して、現金を調達するのに魅力的だと思われる長期ポジションを売却することは予想していません。 (a) ポジションが目標価格に達した場合、 (b) 投資状況が悪化した。 (c) もっと良いものを見つけました。 私たちのオープンポートフォリオはほぼ常に満杯です。これにより、プラスのリターンを逃すリスクを回避できます。これは、通常、購入にはある程度の売却が必要であることも意味します。 「今日は安いけど半年後には安くなるから待とう」とは言いません、安かったら買います、もっと安くなって結論が出たら買います。私たちは、良いものを早く買うことよりも、安い機会を逃すことを恐れています。 今後数日または数週間で何かが安くなるかどうかは誰にもわかりません。これは投資家の心理を予測する問題であり、不可能であるのと同じくらい難しいのです。私たちは個人の価値を正しく測定できる可能性が高いと感じています。資産。 早すぎる購入について、少し時間をかけて興味深い質問について議論したいと思います: 上値で買うのと下値で売るのはどちらが悪いのですか? 私にとっての答えは簡単で、後者です。 後に市場の最高値にあることが判明したときに購入すると、下降変動を経験することになりますが、長期的な議論は依然として存在するため、心配する必要はありません。そして、いずれにせよ、次の最高値は通常は前回よりも高いため、最終的にはあなたが先に進む可能性があります。 しかし、市場の底値で売れば、この下降傾向は永続的なものとなり、さらに重要なことに、上昇を続ける経済と市場のエスカレーターを降りてきたことになり、すでに多くの長期投資家が裕福になっているのです。私が底値で売ることを投資における最大の犯罪だと説明したのはなぜでしょうか。 この記事がお役に立てば幸いです。 もしそうなら、チップをおくるどうぞ https://getalby.com/p/bitcap

@ fac513a1:d4f407a5

“Trust your gut.” “Use immediate instinct.” “Follow your dreams.” How often have you heard these colloquial pieces of advice? Depends how old you are a I guess. Or how in tune to your body you’ve become. Maybe, you’ve been lucky, and had a great spiritual guide in your life. For me, it’s the kind of thing I’ve heard hundreds of times, and although it might have felt good, I am guilty of being overly dismissive. “Yeah, whatever…” Before one’s rational mind takes control again. Planning. Scheming. Thinking. But here’s the thing, what if I told you I’d come across a field of study that helped to explain these simple piece’s of advice? Give me a moment of your time. There’s no smoke without fire as they say… Let’s dive in. It’s called “Human Design”. Ever heard of it? Doubt it… I certainly hadn’t! Shout out to Jin, the coach who I worked with last year, that brought this to my attention; she use’s it as part of her emotional and energy related personal development work. Given it’s a complex subject, we’ll keep this high level, but with any luck it will spark some interest in you. Human Design combines a number of fields, to create a ‘bodygraph’, depicting your unique characteristics. It’s confusing. It’s detailed. It’s like a map. Indeed, you need someone well versed in Human Design to decipher your reading, which is precisely what I got. Initially I was dismissive. I watched the 1 hour reading that I was given by Jin’s friend. It was kind of cool. But a few months went by. Then some more months… Until my meditation coach Sama recommended a Human Design book, which I bought, and eventually got around to reading. Then something started to click. “I must go back and re-watch my reading”, I thought… Like many things, one needs a few prompts, before allocating some decent attention to something. To unpack a little more, with your birth date, time, and location, Human Design is able to explain to you a number of reasons why you are the way you are. It combines traditional fields of wisdom and ancient books in a novel format. Astrology. Divination. I Ching. Kabbalah. Vedic philosophy. Frankly terms that I often run a mile from as hocus-pocus lah-lah land… But the output is rigourous. It’s insightful. Indeed, from my personal experiences through life, what my Human Design reading explains to me resonates very strongly. I am what it calls a “Manifestor”. This puts me in a category with about 8% of the global population. Funnily, it re-affirms certain behaviours I notice in myself. Using my initiative. Getting new things started. Being a dreamer. Hating to be controlled. Some say Manifestors are “bold visionaries”, which sounds cool, but they have an attitude of “everybody else get out of my way”. This resonates. I love ideas, but I am also guilty of “being a bulldozer”, as my mother likes to remind me. As I bring this to a close, let me reflect… Why tell you all this? Truthfully, I’ve gained some value from studying my Human Design, as a way to decipher more about this world, who I am, and how I might best navigate the way forward. I think you could to. Whilst in the future when you’re thinking about building a team, getting into a relationship, or going into business with someone, a quick read of their Human Design chart will help you to pave the way for a more harmonious friendship. What’s wrong with knowing what makes someone tick?… Best, Jake Ps - the more I delve into the spiritual world, the more I am fascinated, as if a veil is slowly falling from my eye’s. Why is this happening? Well I can’t help but feel it’s the mirage of fiat currency falling away. When someone has a money printer they can influence every part of life. Politics. Science. Religion. To some extent it’s all been corrupted. Indeed, it’s perhaps why I’ve found really tuning into myself, listening to what I think, truly feeling, such a powerful source of truth lately. Have you had a similar experience? I’d love to hear from you…

@ 81870f53:29bef6a6

1月27日のメディア報道によると、本選挙が近づく中、バイデン政権は3月末までに530億ドル相当の第3弾「チップ法」補助金の交付を発表する予定で、インテルやTSMCなどが参入すると予想されている。大手半導体企業は全米での新工場建設を加速するため数十億ドルを受け取ることになる。 報道によると、今回の3回目の補助金は前2回とは異なり、先端半導体技術を対象とした補助金であり、資本額も大幅に増額されており、補助金を受けている企業のほとんどはスマートフォンや人工知能向けの先端チップを生産する製造会社であるという。 、など。 2022年8月、バイデン氏は米国の半導体の研究開発、製造、労働力育成に527億ドルを提供するチップ法に署名したが、法案の提出から1年以上が経過しても、米国政府は未だに補助金や譲歩を一切提供していない。以前はTSMCやIntelなどの大手チップメーカーと約束していた。 同メディアは、この問題に詳しい関係者の話として、バイデン氏が先端製造用チップの生産をさらに刺激するため、3月7日の一般教書演説の前にこのニュースを発表すると予想されており、インテルとTSMCが補助金を受け取る可能性が最も高いと伝えた。 : インテルは、米国のオレゴン州、アリゾナ州、ニューメキシコ州、オハイオ州に435億ドル以上をかけて工場を改修または新設する計画だ。 TSMCは総投資額400億ドルをかけてアリゾナ州フェニックス近郊に2つのチップ工場を建設する計画だ。 世界有数の OEM である TSMC の米国でのプロジェクトは頻繁に阻止されており、今年 1 月の TSMC 法会議で TSMC 幹部は、米国政府の奨励金と税制補助金政策の不確実性を理由に、同社がプロジェクトを再び延期することを明らかにした。アリゾナ州の第2工場は2027年か2028年に稼働する予定で、これはTSMCが以前予想していた2026年より少なくとも1年遅れる。 さらにTSMC幹部らは、同工場で生産されるチップの具体的な種類はまだ決まっておらず、同工場で3ナノメートルの先端プロセスチップを生産するかどうかは不明であると指摘した。 TSMCは昨年7月、米国での最初の工場建設を延期し、生産時期を当初発表していた2024年から2025年に延期すると発表したが、当時TSMCは工場建設には熟練労働者不足の問題があったと主張していた。そしてコストの上昇。 TSMCの最高財務責任者、黄仁照氏によると、TSMCは第1工場のつまずきにより第2工場の建設が遅れたという。 この記事がお役に立てば幸いです。 もしそうなら、チップをおくるどうぞ https://getalby.com/p/bitcap

@ 3cd2ea88:bafdaceb

📊 Negli ultimi giorni, il Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ha sperimentato un notevole deflusso di fondi, causato dalla sua recente conversione da fondo a ETF. In questo articolo, esamineremo le dinamiche di GBTC, analizzeremo le ragioni dietro il suo massiccio sell-off e valuteremo l'impatto potenziale su Bitcoin e sul mercato delle criptovalute nel complesso. 📊 Il Contesto di GBTC 📊 Il Grayscale Bitcoin Trust è un veicolo d'investimento regolamentato che consente agli investitori di ottenere esposizione ai movimenti di prezzo di Bitcoin senza possederne direttamente la criptovaluta. La sua recente conversione da fondo a ETF ha scatenato un significativo sell-off, con oltre $1,5 miliardi usciti dal fondo. 📊 Cause della Vendita di Massa 📊 Gli analisti di JPMorgan individuano diversi fattori alla base di questo sell-off. Una strategia chiave sembra essere il take profit adottato da alcuni investitori di GBTC, che chiudono posizioni per massimizzare i profitti. La struttura delle commissioni di GBTC, la più elevata tra i suoi omologhi, ha spinto alcuni investitori verso alternative con commissioni più basse, come l'iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) di BlackRock. 📊 Impatto su Bitcoin e il Mercato delle Criptovalute 📊 Il sell-off di GBTC ha avuto un impatto significativo su Bitcoin, con una diminuzione dell'11% dal lancio dell'ETF su BTC negli Stati Uniti. Gli analisti avvertono che un ulteriore deflusso da GBTC potrebbe ammontare a $5-10 miliardi, mettendo in discussione la sua liquidità. Il fondatore di Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, rimane ottimista, suggerendo che gli investitori potrebbero spostarsi su altri ETF con commissioni più competitive. 📊 Riflessioni e Conclusioni 📊 Il recente sell-off di GBTC sottolinea la necessità di maggiore flessibilità e commissioni competitive nel mercato delle criptovalute. Sebbene la vendita di massa fosse in parte prevedibile, l'entità del deflusso di fondi e la forte pressione sui prezzi di Bitcoin evidenziano l'interconnessione tra veicoli d'investimento e il mercato generale. 📊 L'impatto inatteso del sell-off di GBTC ha stimolato il dibattito sulla necessità di adeguare le commissioni per allinearle agli standard del settore. Gli investitori stanno ora rivalutando le loro strategie, considerando alternative con commissioni più competitive. Il sell-off di GBTC rappresenta un'opportunità per gli investitori tradizionali di accedere più facilmente al mercato delle criptovalute. 📊 Leggi l'articolo completo su Bitget Academy - https://www.bitget.com/it/academy/causes-and-impacts-of-gbtc-sell-off per una visione approfondita delle dinamiche di mercato e ulteriori dettagli sull'analisi del sell-off di GBTC. 📊 Bitget 10% di sconto a vita 6w5d o link: https://bonus.bitget.com/U1JNEK

@ 18e3af1e:1d42e5df

 # You don't own Bitcoin because you don't want to. > In a world of an ever growing number go up; people that lives in countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey; or any other country where dilution of money is the rule; It is hard to stack sats (buy Bitcoin) with ease... But sometimes you just gotta open up a little bit and let information flow in. That’s why you’re here. You are going to stack sats without buying it! --- **Caveats:** 1. It’s not going to be FREE (nothing is) **it will take you a couple minutes of your time** and some will make you walk for it. 2. **It won’t make you rich**, but will add up and eventually who knows, you may have enough to be… 3. By the time of writing all this sites are up, if they don’t operate anymore or links are broken when you’re reading this… **Don’t shoot me.** --- **Walky Walk with [sMiles](https://join.smilesbitcoin.com/lurusan301e) sats for walk:** Pretty straight forward. Earn Sats for walking. You can also spin the wheel and use Fort Nakamoto for extra sats.  --- **Bitcoin Lottery with [LNscratch](https://lnscratch.com/):** Also very self explanatory. Scratch a digital paper to get a chance to win sats when you get 4 check-marks in a straight line. I usually get 21 sats every time. You only need a Lightning wallet like GetAlby, Wallet of Satoshi (this are the most popular you can take a deeper look at it) and you are set.  --- **Get paid for easy tasks [sats4likes](https://habla.news/[handle]/sats4likes.com) :** The tasks are usually: **Follow, repost, coment, like and/or subscribe. That’s it**. You get paid certain ammount of sats set by the owner of the task. The only downside is that you need a twitter account (bad bad, you should be using Nostr) to log in. But if you don’t care about that here it is.  --- **Nostr:** The best way to stack so far, join the force and get zapped (sats) for any note (post) people find to have value. **At the moment there is a whole ecosystem being built upon the protocol layer**. All this clients (websites or apps built over Nostr) are going to be interoperable, meaning that with one keypair (account) will be possible to access them all. **The point is that Nostr uses Lightning Network (Bitcoin) as a form of transacting value**, giving the value for value model a tremendous boost. Imagine getting sats for posting a funny meme, or getting sats for writing an article (like this one), or for making songs and using stemstr, zapstr.live… **The clients are as many as we want them to be, and can make anything we want them to make.** Possibilities are endless. Here is a intuitive and short introduction **[Hey Nostr](https://www.heynostr.com/)** _**If you have any other forms of earning sats please let me know! I’ll add them to this article. Thanks for reading!**_ --- **Get paid by sharing content [Stacker.news](https://stacker.news/):** It’s a great way to not only stack more sats but stack some knowledge and keep up with recent news about Bitcoin, Nostr, Finance, Tech, etc… Simply create an account with any of their methods, Although Lightning is recommended. Then deposit some sats if you have them already (10 sats are necessary to post or comment), then just watch your bag grow. The more interesting and well executed your link/discussion is the more sats you get.  --- **Stack when you use your FIAT to buy things: The Bitcoin Company, [Fold app](https://use.foldapp.com/sign-up?referral=P47WYXPR) , Lolli** I put all of the together because they’re essentially pretty similar. When you purchase a giftcard you get Satsback (instead of cashback), they work and don’t in different locations; so do your own research in that matter. **[Fold](https://use.foldapp.com/sign-up?referral=P47WYXPR)** is a more popular option (currently only working within the US) because they have a card you can use and get satsback even easier. --- ##  **Get sats by listening or making Podcasts**: [Fountain.fm](https://fountain.fm/show/XsscCx4P85iMpafjBZAB) If you’re a podcast lover you definitely need to check this one out! **Just by listening you can earn sats**. You can find podcasts that has this feature enabled, whatever topic it is (doesn’t need to be strictly about Bitcoin or Nostr or even Tech Related). If you have or want to have a podcast, I recommend taking this option. You don’t need sponsors to make your podcast profitable. **Boosts** (like a sat donation) or **Sat Streams** (giving to you a certain amount of satoshis for each minute people hear your podcast) are a way to monetize. The better your content is, the more people will throw money at you (quite literal). --- **Use [Lightning Faucets](https://www.lightningnetworkstores.com/faucet) Like this one:** Simply follow the steps and redeem your sats. If you live in a country where inflation is not stupid high (Like the US) consider a donating to the cause.  --- **Read for sats [Bitcoin Magazine App](https://www.bitcoinmagazine.app/):** I wasn't sure to add this one but it does work if the only thing you want to do is stack and don't mind articles too much. Just read articles all the way down (your fingers can do it faster than your eyes _wink wink_) and get sats for it! You can also reedem flashcodes from BM Twitter (yuck); they're very active with those codes!  **Follow me Nostr:** Lou@zap.stream 🤙🏼🤙🏼 **Hosting "Permissionless Purple Podcast" (spanish)** [https://fountain.fm/show/XsscCx4P85iMpafjBZAB](https://fountain.fm/show/XsscCx4P85iMpafjBZAB) 🎧

@ 69a0a091:c968228d

There's no "right" way to run a relay, any relay operator is free to make their own decisions. I like nostr's simplicity and tendency to favor user independence and choice. I want to see nostr grow and remain reslient, so that's why I have been sharing tools to keep small relays running in tip-top shape. The is the first part in a series. The follow up should explain the workings of our friend-of-friend trust model. ## strfry is fast [bitcoiner.social](npub1an3nz7lczcunpdw6ltjst94hgzcxpppnk7zk3zr2nfcj4yd96kdse6twjd) is [one of the oldest nostr relays](https://github.com/fiatjaf/nostr-relay-registry/pull/3). In the early days, it ran a reference relay implementation called Relayer. It crashed [a lot](https://github.com/fiatjaf/relayer/issues/7), but a simple systemd restart policy kept it alive and mostly functional for the first year. Somewhere around November I switched it over to the rust-rs-relay, which was stable and used a simple sqlite backend. That lasted a matter of weeks before the usage rose enough to warrant changing back to a postgre backend with nostream. Nostr was growing fast! By the outset of 2023, the relay was still being completely overwhelmed. Each request coming in would cause postgresql to gobble up compute cycles. Any amount of tuning on parameters was a futile effort. The demand was unsustainable and the best way to remedy the situation wasn't immediately clear. Then, I think in early February, I saw a post from jb55 that he was trying a new relay written in C++ called strfry. A glance at github revealed that strfry was using a new kind of backend storage method called LMDB. The difference in compute effeciency was night and day: where SQL queries were maxing all server cores, our CPU charts showed that strfry sipped compute cycles. Even a small virtual machine could handle thousands of requests. It reminds me of switching from an old IIS or Apache webserver over to nginx. We continue to run strfry to this day. And most of my relay tooling tends to be focused around it. ## ansible is simple Last year I started an [Ansible Role for installing strfry](https://github.com/bleetube/ansible-role-strfry). It enabled me to commit the entire process of setting up the relay into a repository, ala Infrastructure as Code. This ensured that I'd be able to quickly restore the relay in the event of a catastrohpic loss. And I wouldn't forget how to set the thing up. Besides building strfry from source, it automates the basic setup steps needed to use an excellent plugin by Alex Gleason called strfry-policies. I also started an [Ansible role for snort](https://github.com/bleetube/ansible-role-snort), a nostr web client. Smart people will tell you that Ansible is far from being the best way to manage relay infrastructure, but it is plenty good enough to get the job done. I'd like to do a nix implementation at some point, when time permits. But it's a low priority so I'm hoping someone else will beat me to it. One of my first projects when I was learning Ansible was setting up an observability stack. It's entirely necessary to monitor the availability of a nostr relay, and running my own monitoring stack has been one of my most useful preperations for being a relay admin. I haven't taken the time to put together a proper example, but all of my infra code is FOSS so you can see it in my [stack playbook](https://github.com/bleetube/satstack/blob/main/ansible/playbooks/group_tasks/observability/main.yml) and [host vars](https://github.com/bleetube/satstack/blob/main/ansible/host_vars/sableye.satstack.cloud/prometheus.yml). I even proposed to do a whole talk on this at Tabconf 2023 (although I'm glad they turned me down). If you're wanting to set up your own first observability stack, it might be easiest to start with a few containers (e.g. [awesome-compose/prometheus-grafana](https://github.com/docker/awesome-compose/tree/master/prometheus-grafana)). ## rules are necessary Spam and abuse is prevelant on nostr, so event ingestion and retention are two primary concerns for a relay operator. ### ingest and digest To address the firehose of notes coming in from the internet (ingestion) we use the strfry-policies plugin. The plugin allows the admin to define policy rules to prevent unwanted events from being ingested on the relay. So far I've added two policy types, one [filters by event kind](https://gitlab.com/soapbox-pub/strfry-policies/-/merge_requests/11) and another [filters for the size of the event](https://gitlab.com/soapbox-pub/strfry-policies/-/merge_requests/12). I'll document it more in a follow-up article, but I implemented policy exclusions for friends, and friends-of-friends (foaf). I recently published a simple [cli tool for reading relay reports](https://github.com/bleetube/nostr-report-reader). Reviewing reports is necessary to deal with whatever comes through the cracks of our policies. The admin can use the reports to ban abusive accounts, and delete their content from the relay. ### to retain, or not retain To address data retention, I wrote a simple Deno Typescript tool to prune events. strfry itself has a brute delete function, but every relay will want to keep certain kinds of events longer than others (such as profiles or contact lists). I haven't published it anywhere yet, but it basically looks like this: ```typescript import { readLines } from 'https://deno.land/std@0.201.0/io/mod.ts'; const kindAgeLimitDefault = 90; const kindAgeLimits: Record<number, number> = { 0: 365, // Profiles 3: 365, // Contacts 9735: 180, // Zap Receipts 24133: 365, // NWC 10002: 730, // NIP-65 }; const exportEventsStdin = async (): Promise<void> => { if (Deno.isatty(Deno.stdin.rid)) { Deno.exit(1); } for await (const line of readLines(Deno.stdin)) { if (line.length === 0) { return; } exportLine(line); } }; const exportLine = (line: string): void => { const eventJson = JSON.parse(line); const created_at = new Date(eventJson.created_at * 1000); // convert seconds to ms const kindAgeLimit = (kindAgeLimits[eventJson.kind] || kindAgeLimitDefault) * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // convert days to ms const ageLimitDate = new Date(Date.now() - kindAgeLimit); if (created_at > ageLimitDate) { console.log(line); } }; await exportEventsStdin(); ``` The bitcoiner.social relay uses a modified version that takes into account a friend-of-a-friend model. We retain events from friends of our friends much longer than we keep the notes of total strangers. One side-effect of pruning events is that it reduces the compute load on the server. Having a policy like that can generally keep the relay at a sustainable level for long periods of time. I have a systemd timer (cronjob) that runs the policy on a regular schedule. We run `strfry compact` every week to keep the database index orderly and effecient. These are the kind of optimizations that keep a small relay in a healthy state for the long-term.

@ 3bf0c63f:aefa459d

# Nostr: a quick introduction, attempt #1  Nostr doesn't have a material existence, it is not a website or an app. Nostr is just a description what kind of messages each computer can send to the others and vice-versa. It's a very simple thing, but the fact that such description exists allows different apps to connect to different servers automatically, without people having to talk behind the scenes or sign contracts or anything like that. When you use a Nostr _client_ that is what happens, your _client_ will connect to a bunch of servers, called _relays_, and all these _relays_ will speak the same "language" so your _client_ will be able to publish notes to them all and also download notes from other people. That's basically what Nostr is: this communication layer between the _client_ you run on your phone or desktop computer and the _relay_ that someone else is running on some server somewhere. There is no central authority dictating who can connect to whom or even anyone who knows for sure where each note is stored. If you think about it, Nostr is very much like the internet itself: there are millions of websites out there, and basically anyone can run a new one, and there are websites that allow you to store and publish your stuff on them. The added benefit of Nostr is that this unified "language" that all Nostr _clients_ speak allow them to switch very easily and cleanly between _relays_. So if one _relay_ decides to ban someone that person can switch to publishing to others _relays_ and their audience will quickly follow them there. Likewise, it becomes much easier for _relays_ to impose any restrictions they want on their users: no _relay_ has to uphold a moral ground of "absolute free speech": each _relay_ can decide to delete notes or ban users for no reason, or even only store notes from a preselected set of people and no one will be entitled to complain about that. There are some bad things about this design: on Nostr there are no guarantees that _relays_ will have the notes you want to read or that they will store the notes you're sending to them. We can't just assume all _relays_ will have everything — much to the contrary, as Nostr grows more _relays_ will exist and people will tend to publishing to a small set of all the _relays_, so depending on the decisions each _client_ takes when publishing and when fetching notes, users may see a different set of replies to a note, for example, and be confused. Another problem with the idea of publishing to multiple servers is that they may be run by all sorts of malicious people that may edit your notes. Since no one wants to see garbage published under their name, Nostr fixes that by requiring notes to have a cryptographic signature. This signature is attached to the note and verified by everybody at all times, which ensures the notes weren't tampered (if any part of the note is changed even by a single character that would cause the signature to become invalid and then the note would be dropped). The fix is perfect, except for the fact that it introduces the requirement that each user must now hold this 63-character code that starts with "nsec1", which they must not reveal to anyone. Although annoying, this requirement brings another benefit: that users can automatically have the same identity in many different contexts and even use their Nostr identity to login to non-Nostr websites easily without having to rely on any third-party. To conclude: Nostr is like the internet (or the internet of some decades ago): a little chaotic, but very open. It is better than the internet because it is structured and actions can be automated, but, like in the internet itself, nothing is guaranteed to work at all times and users many have to do some manual work from time to time to fix things. Plus, there is the cryptographic key stuff, which is painful, but cool.

@ 2863f394:275ed58d

I setup a node or two...spent $400 each for incoming and outgoing and now I can't receive payments anymore. I basically lost $800 on this garbage.

@ 75bf2353:e1bfa895

Thank You ! 

@ 1408bad0:4971f2ca

 There was a great meme from Wojak about Wen will Bitconi demonitise Gold. This could come quicker than we think, especially even some banks are thinking that there will be a faster Bitcoin adoption than when the Gold ETF was launched. Gold has around a $12 Trillion market cap according to recent data and it will be interesting to see how quickly Bitocoin erodes into this in the next 2 years.  [source](https://twitter.com/wojakbitcoin/status/1750528788214288631) Bitcoin will surely catch up and easily overtake Gold's marketcap in the next few years in my opinion, especially with the mediocre returns from holding gold, just look at Peter Schiff. The real test will come however when it comes to real estate. Real estate is another beast from gold though and it will not go down without a fight. According to the Bitcoin Prague presentation by [Michael Saylor](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=8Mhu6dxj7qk), the real estate market is worth over $330 Trillion, which is a massive number in magnitude to that of gold. The other thing to remember is that real estate is used by the fiat central bankers as a faucet to pump more fiat debt into the system. If this faucet starts to dry up, they would need to resort to more imaginative ways to indebten people or the whole system could start to collapse. There are many tax benefits given to those who take on debt to buy real estate in many countries. Many people can write off the interest payments on their tax bills, other can avoid capital gains taxs by hodling real estate. This causes people to take on large amounts of debt and pump up the price of housing and cause huge bubbles that the next generation are supposed to take on and keep the system going. In the slide by Michael Saylor, he predicts Bitcoin could take maybe 15% of the real esate market cap and has the potential to take half of it, which would be huge from where we currently are. 50% of $330 Trillion would add $165 Trillion to Bitcoins market cap and it would be hard to put a price on a Satoshi if that happens, let a lone a full Bitcoin. Would there be some reaction from the Banks when they lose a major fiat debt faucet though? How would they react and would they try to make taking on debt for houses even more attractive than the ultra-low rates we have had in recent years? If Bitcoin starts making inroads into people investing in Bitcoin instead of taking debt to buy real estate, it could possibly trigger a huge deflation in the fiat world for real estate as people abandon buying extra apartments to rent out and instead and less liquidity would be flowing in the system. What are your thoughts on how Bitcoin will affect the real estate market? Thanks for reading.  **Let's connect :** [mypathtofire](https://linktr.ee/mypathtofire)

@ abb24eb3:aa7c5ac1

Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> Testing from dev profile 2 <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ 4f9e11e2:9ab6c0cc

Opinion about the city of Seattle <!--HEADER END--> Testing badges <!--FOOTER START--> #myCloneOfTripadvisor #askNostr #nostrOpinion [Join the conversation!](https://www.myCloneOfTripadvisor.com/Search?q=seattle)\n\nJust Testing ...

@ 81870f53:29bef6a6

A株上海総合指数は変動が続く中、2,800～3,000ポイントで推移、日経平均ETFと連動した好調なパフォーマンスで日経225指数は34年ぶりの高値を記録、米国株は弱気よりもはるかに強気、S&P 500指数は新たな高みに上昇、インド株式市場の時価総額は月曜日に初めて香港株式市場を上回り、4兆3,300億米ドルで世界第4位の株式市場となった... ウォール街が発表した調査報告書では、米国株の動向を例に挙げると、JPモルガン・チェースは来年末までのS&P500指数の目標株価を4,200ポイントに設定しているのに対し、バンク・オブ・アメリカは、ドイツ銀行、ゴールドマン・サックス、シティバンクは5,000ポイント以上に叫んでいる。 2024 年の中国経済については、多くの機関はもはや 2023 年を見据えるほど積極的ではありません。予測調査レポートでは「安定と変化」などの穏やかな言及は珍しくありません。 世界有数の資産管理機関として、10 兆米ドルの資産を管理するブラックロックは、常に世界市場と中国市場に細心の注意を払ってきました。 ブラックロックは、米国の経済成長が2023年に比べて鈍化する可能性などにより、世界経済は主に下降傾向を示すと予測している。中国市場については、2024年には中国経済が政策支援の下で緩やかに回復するとみている。米国の金利圧力が徐々に解消され、市場のリスク選好度が改善するなどの前向きな要因もあり、株式市場の回復に期待する価値がある。 **世界経済の低迷に警戒、中国経済は緩やかに回復の見通し** 同社の中国担当チーフエコノミスト、ソン・ユー氏は、年初に世界の主要株式市場の多くが好成績を示していた時期に、ブラックロックは特に冷静で自制しているように見えたと、証券会社の中国特派員とのやりとりの中で述べた。世界経済は減速傾向にあるものの、今後の動向については依然として不透明感が大きいとの理由を次のように述べています。 世界最大の経済大国である米国の経済成長は昨年に比べて鈍化する見通しであり、利上げの効果が遅れていることから、米国の利上げの効果が現れるまでにはまだ時間がかかると考えられます。すでに昨年初めに比べて昨年末からは遅れており、市場は引き続き様子見が予想される。 国際的な緊張や破壊的テクノロジーなどの要因の組み合わせは、世界経済発展の潜在的な速度に影響を与えるだろうし、市場は米国経済に比較的自信を持っているようだが、不確実性も高い。 世界第2位の経済大国である中国の経済成長率は2023年も同様となる見通しで、世界経済の成長率にも一定の影響を与えるだろう。 しかし、2024年の中国のマクロ経済動向については、多くのブラックロック研究者が、強力な政策により緩やかな回復傾向を示すと信じ、前向きな姿勢を維持した。 ソン・ユ氏は、一部の金融機関は2024年の中国の経済成長率を過小評価していると考えており、プラスの要因に目を向けると、過去2～3カ月で国内の経済政策は以前よりも柔軟性を示しており、例えば、今回発表された格下げや、 50ベーシスポイントの引き下げは、以前の25ベーシスポイントよりも明らかに強力であり、将来の政策余地がまだ十分にあることと、新興産業が示す競争力と相まって、中国の経済成長率は2024年に約5％に達すると予想されている。 ブラックロック・ファンドの債券投資部門ディレクター、リウ・シン氏は、中国のマクロ経済発展のファンダメンタルズに関する限り、短期的には比較的弱いインフレ傾向により緩やかな回復が見られると述べ、政策面では次のように述べた。は、2024年の財政政策はより積極的となり、金融政策は財政政策と一致し、金融政策は既存の格下げなどに基づいて引き続き下支えされると予想している。 金融政策の観点から、ソン・ユ氏は、現在の回復環境においては、中国の国内規制が依然として金利と為替レートに対して強力な管理と誘導を行っており、金利低下の余地と必要性は依然として十分にあると分析した。政府の利下げプロセスはまだ終わっておらず、実質金利は将来的にはより低い水準に引き下げられるだろうし、為替レートに関しては、現在の人民元相場は比較的安定しており、今年の人民元安圧力は比較的低い。昨年に比べて小さい。 ソン・ユー氏は、2024年の中国経済の核となる成長点について、世界的な低炭素移行と人工知能の発展傾向を背景に、ハイエンド技術と低炭素が中国経済成長の新たな原動力となっていると指摘した。また、消費と輸出の面では、大量消費のさらなる増加が見込まれ、パーソナルヘルスケアやパーソナルメディカルケアなどのサービス産業がさらに発展する可能性があり、高齢化の進展を背景に成長の余地もあるシルバーヘア経済に関連する産業。 一方、ブラックロック・ファンドの最高投資責任者、ルー・ウェンジエ氏によると、中国と発展途上国の間の経済・貿易交流は近年緊密化しており、もはや国家主導のインフラプロジェクトに支配されているわけではない。中国のアフリカ向け輸出のうち、製造業の生産能力移転や消費財のアフリカ向け輸出など、民間企業が大半を占めており、輸出構造では、中国の東南アジア諸国向け輸出が米国向け輸出を上回り、企業向け輸出を上回っている。海外に出た企業は世界で大きなアドバンテージを持っており、海外進出時の競争力も高いです。 **中国株式市場には評価を修復するチャンスがある** 2024年以降、A株は多くの要因の影響を受けており、全体的な変動は大きくなっているが、ブラックロックの投資研究者の多くは国内株式市場について比較的楽観的であり、バリュエーションは比較的底にあると考えている。将来的には要因が改善するため、評価を修正する余地は十分にある。 ブラックロック建新ウェルス・マネジメントの最高マルチ資産投資責任者に就任予定の劉瑞氏は、世界的な観点から見ると、2023年以降、マクロ市場のボラティリティ、不確実性、差別化が増大していると考えている。世界的な分断という新たな環境において、鍵となるのは中国がどのように投資を行うかである。劉瑞氏は、政策支援、消費の回復、投資の増加を背景に、現在循環的な底にある中国市場は2024年には上向きに回復する可能性があると予測している。 具体的な投資構造に関して、劉瑞氏は「低波動＋技術成長」が今後も主な焦点になると考えており、「昨年大幅に増加した高配当は、マクロ的な文脈で見れば良い配分目標だ」と述べた。景気が低迷すれば超過収益力はさらに強まるだろう。」 盧文傑氏はまた、中国株式市場にはまだ構造的なチャンスがあり、輸出、海外工場建設、海外投資など海外進出が主な方向性である一方、現在人気の人工知能や人工知能などの革新的産業は急速に成長していると述べた。人型ロボットは中国株式市場にとってもう一つのチャンスであり、中国は世界的な産業チェーンや国内の技術革新など製造業の優位性を持っているため、超過利益を得る機会を見つけることができる。 劉瑞氏は短期市場について、「経済政策による支援が投資家の信頼感を高め、市場の回復につながるだろう。現時点では、豊富な流動性、安定した成長の継続、景気回復によってもたらされる春の市場レイアウトのウィンドウ期間に集中できる」と述べた。 1月の評価額。 **国内債券市場は好調なパフォーマンスを示す可能性がある** 2024年の国内債券市場の動向について、Liu Xin氏はかなり楽観的な見通しだが、ペースをコントロールする必要があるとし、今年の投資は地方政府債務の厳格な管理と、質の高い経済成長のための主要な前提条件を考慮すべきであると考えている。発達。 ブラックロックは、市場が金融政策期待に基づいてさらに競争すれば、国債利回りはさらに低下する余地があると考えているが、同時にクレジット債券のパフォーマンスは2024年に好調に推移すると予想される。これは金利債券の傾向と一致しており、低格付けの信用債券には今年金利スプレッドを縮小する余地がいくらかある。 特定のセクターに目を向けると、Liu Xin 氏は、国内の主要 3 つの信用債券業界セクターにおける投資機会を分析しました: まず、CITI 債券は 2023 年に好調なパフォーマンスを維持する可能性があり、今年の政策も引き続き良好なパフォーマンスを維持する可能性があります。金利動向と一致しており、中期的な配分価値があること、第三に、不動産セクター債券は今年下半期に注目に値しますが、まだ様子見する必要があります。 劉瑞氏はまた、「昨年の第4四半期以来、債券市場全体が雄平の傾向を示している。可能性のある信用緩和と着実な成長により、債券市場はある程度混乱するだろうが、割り当て額は依然としてかなり大きい」と述べた。同氏は、2024 年に向けて、ポートフォリオの配分から判断して、引き続き中短期の高格付信用債券に注力できると考えています。 また、銀行の財務管理の観点から、劉瑞氏は、投資家に対し、リスク選好度や資金の投資可能期間に基づいて、設定可能な資産管理商品を決定するよう注意を喚起した。例えば、銀行金利引き下げの文脈で、劉瑞氏は次のように述べた。投資家の皆様には、長期的な観点から、ご自身のリスク許容度に応じて合理的な投資を行うことをお勧めします。 もう一つの例は、低波動で賢明な資産管理商品は主に預金や金利債券など変動の少ない資産に投資するため、相対的に安定した純資産パフォーマンスを達成でき、債券市場や株式市場の影響が少ないと考えていることだ。比較的良好な流動性を備えており、リスク選好度が低い銀行財務管理顧客のニーズに応えます。 この記事がお役に立てば幸いです。 もしそうなら、チップをおくるどうぞ https://getalby.com/p/bitcap

@ fac513a1:d4f407a5

You’re walking down the street. People are flowing by you. Tall. Small. Smilling. Crying. Whatever the case might be, what would happen if you stopped each one of them, and asked a simple question: “What is your goal?” Chance’s are, most people would have the same response. “I don’t know” Or if they did have an answer, maybe it’s… “Get my hair cut” 
A little better would be… “Grow my wealth” Point being, we charge around through life without properly taking the time to set effective goals. Could we be more productive? Could we be happier? Could we be better at realising our dreams? I am just embarking on a personal development course with our wonderful osteopath Sharizaar. She is an alumni of the Proctor-Gallagher institute, an organisation founded by a guy called Bob Proctor, a disciple of Napoleon Hill’s almost century old book “Think and Grow Rich”. In one of the early lesson’s Bob points out brilliantly how directionless most of us are. We haven’t set strategic goals. And without good goals we’re doomed to mediocrity. It really resonated. In particular he unpacked the different types of goals he see’s. A, B, and C type goals. Let’s dissect them. An A-type goal is a goal you already know how to do. Let’s say my goal is to buy a new BMW X5. Sounds nice. But if I already own a BMW X5, which I bought 2 years ago new, then my goal is something I already know how to do. If you already understand how to do it, then it doesn’t force you to learn or test yourself, so there is no personal growth attached to it. On reflection, many of the goals I have are like this… A B-type goal requires a little more thinking. It’s a goal that you know, should you collect together lots of information, speak to that person, go to that place, buy that thing, then you’re confident you can get there. You have a mind map of how to achieve a B-type goal. Sure, attainment of the goal might be a good thing, but you’re simply collecting resources together. There is no creativity involved in pulling all that together. The problem with a B-type goal: you will get bored. As I think through this, we’ve just made the decision to go and spend a month in Byron bay, so I set this as a goal. I’ve booked a property, paid for flights, found a way to get a car and dog up there, all of which I knew I could achieve. I am not bored. But it’s a case of curating a bunch of things that I already know how to do. Which brings me to a C-type goal. As Bob brilliantly points out, this type of goal is more like a vision, a fantasy, a dream come true. He encourages you to get creative. Sit down. Breathe. Feel. What is it that you’ve always really wanted? Fly a helicopter. Speak fluent French. Climb Mt Everest. Just some fun things that spring to mind. The key here is to be almost irrational, conjure up things that one immediately rejects as impossible, something that initially scares you. Go on a silent retreat. Swim the English Channel. Write a book. Even those aren’t truly scary enough! I am thinking on the fly here… Arguably this is best done with nothing in mind. Create a sustainable source of energy that is costless. Time travel. Go to Mars. That’s better. Those are terrifying! What I like here though, it really resonates, is that “you are your thoughts”. If we set a C-type goal well, sure we don’t know how to achieve it, but once we set our mind on it then the creativity flows. “When there is a will, there is a way.” Bob quotes Napoleon Hill “imagination is the most marvellous, miraculous, inconceivably powerful force the world has ever know”. Well this is a fun way to start the day! Pumped. I am inspired to spend more time spitballing terrifying ideas that could become a goal. Admittedly Sharizaar did help me to set a C-type goal lately, which is poignant if only for the fact it’s the first time in my life I set a goal that didn’t include something to do with money, which should actually just be the output of a good goal. Each mornign and evening I say to myself: “I’m so grateful and happy, now that I give myself permission to live everyday as an open space of discovery, fulfilment, and wonder.” Cheesy. Yes. Spiritual. Yes. Fun first attempt. For sure. Where is this all taking me? Time will tell. But with a renewed vigour to utilise goal setting I am confident of a happier, healthier, and wealthier future. What goals do you have? Best, Jake Ps - until the last year I was very bad at spending money on myself. Sure, I’ve invested in other people, I’ve travelled a lot, and been very fortunate in general, but I am guilty of poor self-care. Massage? No thanks. Osteo session? No thanks. Meditation? Don't have time… With the beautiful influence of my wife, a bio-hacker if ever there was one, I am quickly improving. One of the area’s I am most excited about, and have already felt benefits from, is paying up for personal development coaching. I encourage you do consider doing the same! As always, DM open, as I’d love to hear from you.

@ dbe0605a:f8fd5b2c

## Nostr for The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity  This Sunday, 28.01.2024 at 18:00 - 19:00 UTC we're inviting you to take pare in a very unique #zapathon Nostrians taking part in this special zapathon that will play in tune with thousands of people playing together with The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity on their 32nd Grand Finale! Hence the name #orchestrathon **The goal of #orchestrathon is to support the goal of this years Grand Finale, which is: funding equipment for diagnosing, monitoring and rehabilitating lung diseases of patients in pulmonology wards for children and adults in Poland** **That means all bitcoin from zaps will be converted to PLN and donated to The Great of Christmas Charity foundation.** What's The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity? What is the 32nd Grand Finale?! You'll find all of those answers on Geyser project story, or a few paragraphs below 👇 Now coming back to #orchestrathon... ### What Is #Orchestrathon This Nostr account is a was generated on Geyser and is tied to Geyser project: [Bitcoiners support The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity](https://geyser.fund/project/greatorchestraofchristmascharity/overview) **That means all zaps sent to this account are at the same time funding Geyser campaing.** So not only you will contribute to the goal in the project, also all the zap comments will be visable there. Ain't that crazy? We can use this campaign **as one giant #orchestrathon client!**  ### Rules are simple: 1. On Sunday at 18.00 - 19.00 we all connect to our relays to join the #orchestrathon 2. For the whole hour - **you can zap this profile**, our posts or comments as crazy! 3. At 19.00 it's culmination of both #orchestrathon and Grand Finale All Nostrians who zap will receive [special badges](https://badges.page/p/npub1cpmvpsqtzxl4px44dp4544xwgu0ryv2lscl3qexq42dfakuza02s4fsapc), depending on the zapped amount (in total):  On Sunday there will be lot's of concerts and events happening all day, culminating with Grand Finale closing at 19.00. We will try to launch a stream on [zap.stream](https://zap.stream/), so we can enjoy Grand Finale and concerts together! This #orchestrathon and Geyser fundraise is organised by Dwadzieścia Jeden, a community of polish Bitcoiners. More about us and Proof of Work in the project story 👇 We're not only Bitcoiners, are also Nostrians, follow us: Dwadzieścia Jeden account: @npub1cpmvpsqtzxl4px44dp4544xwgu0ryv2lscl3qexq42dfakuza02s4fsapc Saunter: @npub1m0sxqk5uwvtjhtt4yw3j0v3k6402fd35aq8832gp8kmer78atvkq9vgcru Fmar: @npub1xpuz4qerklyck9evtg40wgrthq5rce2mumwuuygnxcg6q02lz9ms275ams JesterHodl: @npub18s59mqct7se3xkhxr3epkagvuydwtvhpsacj67shrta8eknynegqttz5c3 Tomek K: @npub14wxtsrj7g2jugh70pfkzjln43vgn4p7655pgky9j9w9d75u465pqvagcye Tom Chojnacki: @npub1m0sxqk5uwvtjhtt4yw3j0v3k6402fd35aq8832gp8kmer78atvkq9vgcru Gracjan Pietras: @npub1trkudtnp7jg3tmy4sz8mepmgs5wdxk9x2esgts25mgkyecrse7js6ptss5 Tomek Waszczyk @npub1ah8phwmfyl2lakr23kt95kea3yavpt4m3cvppawuwkatllnrm4eqtuwdmk # Original Geyser project story ## Saving Lives and Preserving Health  [Dwadzieścia Jeden](https://twitter.com/21BitcoinPolska) a polish node in decentralised bitcoin communities network [Twenty One](https://twentyone.world/), is proud to facilitate bitcoin fundraising for **the biggest, non-governmental, non-profit, charity in Poland — The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity**. For the past 31 years, GOCC continuously fundraises money for pediatric and elderly care in Poland. Each year, a culmination of the raise occurs during the last Sunday of January in the shape of **The Grand Finale** — a joyful day that when tens of thousands volunteers worldwide, especially kids and teenagers, go on the streets to gather money for the cause, giving donors hear-shaped stickers with logo of the foundation. If you're in Poland on that day, basically every person you'll meet on the street will proudly wear GOCC heart.  The same hear-shaped stickers can be seen in every hospital in Poland on thousands of high quality medical equipment bought by The Great Orchestra. **There is not a single polish family that hasn't benefited in some way from this equipment**, and it saved thousands of lives, especially the little ones.   ## 32nd Grand Finale Goal This year, 32rd Grand Finale will take place on 28th of January. The aim of the 32nd Grand Finale is **post-pandemic lung diseases — the raised funds will be used to purchase equipment for children's and adults' respiratory units.** The Foundation plans to purchase: * equipment for diagnostic imaging, i.a. MRI and ultrasound equipment, * equipment for functional diagnosis, i.a. polysomnographs and portable spirometers, * equipment for endoscopic diagnosis, i.a. navigational bronchoscopy systems and bronchoscopes * equipment for rehabilitation - equipment for pulmonary rehabilitation used in the treatment of patients after lung transplantation * equipment for thoracic surgery, e.g. electrocoagulation systems and cryoprobes. ## The Great Orchestra of Proof of Work * **31 years** of non-stop fundraising for state-of-the-art saving life equipment, [running medical and educational programmes](https://en.wosp.org.pl/medycyna/programy) and [humanitarian aid](https://en.wosp.org.pl/pomagamy) * 2 billion PLN or **~11,781 BTC** raised in total * [Areas of help](https://en.wosp.org.pl/medycyna): children's cardiac surgery, oncology, geriatrics, neonatology, children's nephrology, children's and young people's mental health services, ambulances for children's hospitals, volunteer firefighters & search & rescue units * [Last year Grand Finale](https://en.wosp.org.pl/aktualnosci/ponad-240-milionow-na-walke-z-sepsa) raised over PLN 240 million (**1,410 BTC**) for a goal to fight sepsis * You can check how money from 2022 report (224 376 706 PLN or **~1,321.69 BTC**) raise were spent [here](https://geyser.fund/project/greatorchestraofchristmascharity) (although it's in polish) * In addition to work focused on Poland, [GOCC fundraised money for hospitals in Ukraine and provided substantial humanitarian aid for Ukrainian refugees](https://en.wosp.org.pl/pomagamy/pomagamy-ukrainie), [Polish-Belarusian border crisis](https://en.wosp.org.pl/aktualnosci/wosp-zakonczyla-dzialania-na-granicy), Turkey earthquake victims and more * GOCC is the most-trusted Polish organization and is at the top of the list as the most trusted public entities in Poland  ## What We'll Do With Gathered Funds Gathered bitcoin will be converted to PLN by a polish exchange [Quark](https://quark.house/en/) and donated to The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity after The Grand Finale which takes place on January 28th.  ## Dwadzieścia Jeden Proof of Work We're a group of polish pleb Bitcoiners that started organising ourselves about 2 years ago. Our activities include: * organising regular [bitcoin meetups](https://www.meetup.com/pl-PL/bitcoin-warsaw) in several cities in Poland, also Nostr meetup in Warsaw * organising [Bitcoin FilmFest and European Halving Party](https://bitcoinfilmfest.com/) in Warsaw * orangepilling and maintaining [map of polish bitcoin merchants in Poland on btcmap.org](https://btcmap.org/community/dwadzie%C5%9Bcia-jeden) * [translating bitcoin FOSS to polish language](https://geyser.fund/project/bitcoininpolish) * [writing and translating articles to polish](https://europeanbitcoiners.com/tag/po/) * giving [talks on bitcoin](https://youtu.be/-DHee2eJKr4?t=1301) * volounteering for helping with bitcoin payments and running bitcoin workshops on non-conferences (eg. [Weekend of Capitalism](https://weekendkapitalizmu.pl/)) * working in human rights centered NGOs and [promoting bitcoin as a tool for protecting human rights](https://youtu.be/MPhkDCd-h2E?si=waZRxu6yxp5-np8O) * ...and we're just starting! ## Find Out More * [Official GOCC website](https://en.wosp.org.pl/) * [Wikipedia page about GOCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Orchestra_of_Christmas_Charity) ## Gallery           

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

For Bitcoin enthusiasts seeking a haven for like-minded individuals and a chance to experience Bitcoin adoption in its purest form, El Salvador and Bitcoin Beach often come to mind. This is no coincidence, given El Salvador's pioneering role in making bitcoin legal tender. However, the Bitcoin ecosystem extends beyond national borders, with vibrant communities emerging around the world where bitcoin thrives in everyday transactions. One such example is the inspiring grassroots movement of Bitcoin Jungle in rural Costa Rica. Driven by a shared passion for Bitcoin and the "pura vida" spirit, a group of Bitcoiners has established a thriving community centered on a circular Bitcoin economy. This is the essence of Bitcoin Jungle. https://i.nostr.build/DkD9.jpg ### What is Bitcoin Jungle? [Bitcoin Jungle](https://www.bitcoinjungle.app/) is an open-source community project focused on bringing the Bitcoin ecosystem to life in Costa Rica, particularly in the "Golden Triangle" area – Dominical, Uvita, Ojochal, Platanillo, and Tinamaste. Their mission is to build a circular bitcoin economy and a thriving community centered around bitcoin. **Focus:** * Bitcoin adoption: Encourage businesses and individuals to accept and use bitcoin as a form of payment. * Education and resources: Provide educational materials and resources about Bitcoin and the Lightning Network to both businesses and individuals. * Community building: Create a strong and supportive community of Bitcoin enthusiasts in Costa Rica. * Boost to local economy: Increased tourist and resident spending through Bitcoin adoption to benefit local businesses. * Financial inclusion: Bitcoin's borderless nature and ease of use offers financial inclusion for unbanked or underbanked populations. **Achievements:** * [Bitcoin Jungle app](https://www.bitcoinjungle.app/download): Developed a mobile wallet app built on the Bitcoin Lightning Network, facilitating easy bitcoin transactions within the community for both Android and iOS. * Business adoption: Helped over 250 businesses in the "Golden Triangle" accept Bitcoin payments. * [Map and directory](https://maps.bitcoinjungle.app/): Created a map and directory showcasing businesses accepting bitcoin in the area. * Grassroots movement: Established a strong community identity around bitcoin and "pura vida" values. * Integrate Sinpe: Allow sending of bitcoin payments to 90% of the Costa Rican population, both individuals and businesses. ### Who's behind Bitcoin Jungle? https://i.nostr.build/jDWV.jpg The success of Bitcoin Jungle can be attributed to the convergence of two crucial drivers: passionate Bitcoin enthusiasts and skilled community leaders. Each individual, attracted by the unique allure of the "Golden Triangle" in Costa Rica, brought their diverse skillsets and collective ambition to the table, resulting in this organically developed and thriving hub of Bitcoin adoption. These skillsets ranging from technical, to personal, to community outreach, to spiritual and more, are a synergistic blend of expertise and shared vision, serving as the foundational layer for Bitcoin Jungle's continued progress. ### Bitcoin Freedom Festival Building upon the momentum of their inaugural Nostr unconference held at [Awake](https://www.awake.cr/) in Uvita, Costa Rica, in March 2023, Bitcoin Jungle successfully hosted their first Bitcoin conference, the Bitcoin Freedom Festival, last week at the same venue. This conference took place during January 18-21, 2024, bringing together Bitcoiners and like minded, freedom loving folks from across the world. The inaugural Bitcoin Freedom Festival, hosted by Bitcoin Jungle, offered a diverse and engaging lineup for attendees. Participants delved into the world of Bitcoin through a variety of talks, panels, and workshops catering to both technical and non-technical audiences. Attendees engaged in interactive sessions on building sustainable Bitcoin economies, fostering inclusivity within the ecosystem, and navigating the legal landscape of Bitcoin businesses. Speakers explored the potential of Bitcoin beyond finance, delving into its impact on social change, environmental sustainability, and spiritual connections. Beyond Bitcoin related themes, attendees were graced with various cultural sessions and ceremonies from local indigenous tribes and family-friendly events such as fruit tasting, hot chocolate creation, and hula hooping. For those that wanted to add decentralized communication talks to their schedule, attendees joined a Nostr panel hosted by yours truly along with several other Nostriches. https://i.nostr.build/oJzl.jpg Awake describes themselves as "*a catalyst for humanity's awakening, celebrating life and serving as a community, retreat center, and hub for individual and collective growth*" or the spiritual arm of Bitcoin's ethos, connecting human's together and to nature. Awake is essentially a Bitcoin Citadel. > Bitcoin transcends the function of a mere currency to symbolize the primal layer of existence that harmonizes our myriad experiences. It illuminates our collective path, encouraging truth, integrity, and unity, as we rise above the inner and outer forces that have historically suppressed the individual and humanity. It seems poetic and fitting that Awake is located in the heart of Bitcoin Jungle, their co-founder Govinda, is also one of the founding members of Bitcoin Jungle, and Awake hosted both Nostrica and the Bitcoin Freedom Festival. ### Bitcoin Marketplace Beyond the conversations of conferences and networking opportunities, the Bitcoin Freedom Festival offered a taste of the future with its bustling Bitcoin Marketplace. This dedicated area brought together dozens of local merchants and vendors from the neighboring Bitcoin farmers' market, showcasing the possibilities of Bitcoin in everyday life. HODLing bitcoin is cool, but the real super power unlocks when you spend your bitcoin for everyday goods. From delicious tropical fruits and local treats to handcrafted snacks, clothing, jewelry, artwork, and trinkets, the vendors represented the early adopters of Bitcoin Jungle's initiative. In collaboration with Bitcoin Jungle, each vendor utilized a compact mobile Point of Sale system powered by BTCPay server. These user-friendly devices, complete with thermal receipt printers, empowered vendors to seamlessly accept bitcoin payments, directly deposited to their Bitcoin Jungle wallets. https://i.nostr.build/J7aP.jpg This wasn't just a marketplace; it was a living, breathing testament to the growing acceptance of bitcoin within the local community. Attendees could witness firsthand the ease and convenience of using bitcoin for everyday purchases. The atmosphere buzzed with a sense of shared purpose and enthusiasm as vendors and customers alike embraced the innovative power of Bitcoin. From buying the freshest mango from a local farmer to picking up a unique handcrafted souvenir, participants experienced the thrill of being part of a pioneering community actively shaping a new economic landscape, all from within the Costa Rican jungle. ### Where can you spend Bitcoin in Costa Rica? https://i.nostr.build/MrM5.png Bitcoin adoption in Costa Rica extends beyond the "Golden Triangle", encompassing over 250 locations spread across the country. While the densest concentration lies within Uvita, the beating heart of Bitcoin Jungle, businesses accepting Bitcoin can be found throughout the nation. These locations are conveniently accessible on the Bitcoin Jungle map, both within the mobile app and on their [website](https://maps.bitcoinjungle.app/). You may browse Bitcoin Jungle's [interactive map](https://maps.bitcoinjungle.app/) to discover various businesses and locations that accept bitcoin, searching by category and location. https://i.nostr.build/9n9G.png Rest assured, you won't be scrambling for mobile reception in most cities and towns. For example, Uvita and Dominical boast excellent mobile coverage with major carriers like Claro blanketing the area, providing your mobile bitcoin transactions the bandwidth they need. While mobile data is readily available, many cafes, restaurants, and shops in both towns offer free Wi-Fi for even greater connectivity. This connectivity extends across most of Costa Rica too, with many local businesses boasting high speed fiber connections. If you happen to visit a business that isn't directly using the Bitcoin Jungle app or accepting bitcoin, there's a high probability that they're using Sinpe. This will indirectly allow you to spend your bitcoin virtually anywhere in Costa Rica. ### What is Sinpe Movil? Sinpe serves as the backbone of Costa Rican mobile payments, enabling instant transfers between bank accounts, individuals, and certain businesses. With an impressive 90% penetration rate, Sinpe has become the dominant payment method for everyday transactions. https://i.nostr.build/2WO5.png [Thanks to Bull Bitcoin](https://www.bullbitcoin.com/blog/bull-bitcoin-expands-bitcoin-exchange-and-payments-services-to-costa-rica-via-sinpe-movil-in-partnership-with-bitcoin-jungle), the Bitcoin Jungle app now supports Sinpe, allowing you to convert your bitcoin into Costa Rican colones directly within the Sinpe network. This means you can seamlessly top up your Sinpe wallet with bitcoin or send bitcoin to an existing Sinpe wallet, effectively spending bitcoin and having it being converted to fiat for the local merchant on the fly. ### Do you need the Bitcoin Jungle app? The short answer: No! You can use whatever you want! When it comes to spending your Bitcoin in Costa Rica, you have two primary options: utilizing the Sinpe mobile payment system through the Bitcoin Jungle app, or conducting direct Lightning Network transactions at participating businesses. https://i.nostr.build/Z6V9.jpg * Over 250 locations in Costa Rica accept Bitcoin payments directly through the Lightning Network. Here, you can utilize your preferred Bitcoin Lightning wallet for seamless and instant transactions. * The Bitcoin Jungle app is required if you want to convert your bitcoin to colones and utilize them within the Sinpe network. This opens up a wider range of spending options throughout Costa Rica, as Sinpe boasts a 90% penetration rate. Not everyone will be able to install the Bitcoin Jungle application. For example, if you are visiting Costa Rica from the USA, with a USA phone, there's a high probability that you will not be able to install the Bitcoin Jungle application via Google Play Store or Apple App Store due to region locking. You may have to manually install the Android APK or join Apple's TestFlight program. https://i.nostr.build/0lOv.png While the Bitcoin Jungle app offers a convenient gateway for spending bitcoin with Sinpe in Costa Rica, its requirement for mobile phone number registration might deter some privacy-conscious users, particularly experienced Bitcoiners accustomed to self-custody solutions. Fortunately, for those seeking a purely pseudonymous experience, an array of robust mobile Lightning wallets exist and all work as expected. ### Personal Experiences My wife and I first explored Bitcoin Jungle in March 2023, witnessing the early stages of Bitcoin adoption. Now, upon my return for the Bitcoin Freedom Festival, I was astounded to find the number of accepting businesses almost doubled. This remarkable growth, directly attributed to the previous "Nostrica Unconference" with its near 300 Bitcoin enthusiasts, fuels my optimism for an even greater surge following this recent event. Witnessing firsthand the enthusiastic response of local merchants reaffirms my belief in Bitcoin. https://i.nostr.build/Z6Bx.jpg This trip, eager to share this experience with family, I brought my wife and children, armed with four Bitcoin Lightning wallets connected to my Lightning node at home. We embarked on a family vacation, using the Lightning Network exclusively for day-to-day purchases from breakfast treats to souvenirs. From coffee for my wife and pipa fria for my son to fresh fruit for my daughter and delicious meals for all of us, each transaction was seamless and effortless. This culminated in a memorable visit to Seba's, Uvita's premier restaurant, where we enjoyed both food and adult beverages – all paid for with bitcoin. https://i.nostr.build/4lz4.jpg This experience wasn't just about personal convenience; it was a testament to the growing acceptance and integration of bitcoin within the local community. Witnessing how families, from coffee shops to fine dining, can seamlessly operate, empowers me to envision a future where Bitcoin flourishes. https://i.nostr.build/4lxL.jpg Reaching Bitcoin Jungle involves some planning due to its distance from San Jose Airport. The journey takes approximately 3.5-4 hours by car, offering the most flexibility for exploring the region, attending excursions, and maximizing your itinerary. Car rentals are readily available, though ride-sharing, buses, and even small plane flights are alternative options, depending on your budget and preferences. While Uvita's downtown area features walkable access to many amenities, having a rental vehicle is recommended for exploring the full scope of the Golden Triangle's attractions. For example, my family visited jungle canopy zip lines, jungle cacao tours, waterfalls, and multiple beaches. ### Conclusions Bitcoin Jungle is a successful community-driven, grassroots project, showcasing the potential of Bitcoin adoption and integration beyond El Salvador. We often hear about Bitcoin Beach or how El Salvador is "Bitcoin Country", but I'd wager that Bitcoin adoption is on par or even higher with local merchants in Bitcoin Jungle. Bitcoin Jungle is a beautiful paradise showcasing freedom at every corner, allowing you to spend bitcoin at nearly every corner. If you're a Bitcoiner seeking a vibrant, welcoming community and a real-world Bitcoin experience, look no further than Bitcoin Jungle. I highly recommend it. Pura vida! https://i.nostr.build/Qr2v.jpg

@ c5d54dd3:e4a3dfc6

We've all been been there, a channel gets closed, no-matter yet if it was a cooperative or force-closed, but somehow the close transaction hangs around and doesn't get confirmed. You want to clear the house, or need the pending onchain sats, but wonder how to go about it? Follow this guide and you'll hopefully find remedy. But before, read [this article](https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lnd/unconfirmed-bitcoin-transactions) from LND. Then [read it](https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lnd/unconfirmed-bitcoin-transactions) again. Once you think you understand it, [read it again](https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lnd/unconfirmed-bitcoin-transactions). It's not super cohesive, since a number of things from the top need to be understood to grasp the section **[Channel closing](https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lnd/unconfirmed-bitcoin-transactions#docs-internal-guid-5647dd03-7fff-dc71-47cf-5f7e2155a44d)**, so ensure you spend some time in there. ## Situation This is written for LND, but similar methodologies are applicable for CLN. Eclair folks know their way around anyway. You identified a channel-close, either in one of the GUIs you use, or from a Bot notification. But it doesn't confirm. First thing to do is SSH into your node via `ssh user@node-ip` and get an overview of all pending (open, and close) with `lncli pendingchannels`[^1]. ```terminal { "channel": { "remote_node_pub": "123456789889786857463636288291929458767688493999392324", "channel_point": "dhksfkeh8458734kldjfksd39393932033fkk3003022244:1", "capacity": "10000000", "local_balance": "9999711", "remote_balance": "70137", "local_chan_reserve_sat": "10053", "remote_chan_reserve_sat": "10053", "initiator": "INITIATOR_REMOTE", "commitment_type": "ANCHORS", "num_forwarding_packages": "2", "chan_status_flags": "ChanStatusBorked|ChanStatusCommitBroadcasted|ChanStatusLocalCloseInitiator" }, "limbo_balance": "9999711", "commitments": { "local_txid": "eeof599490930002dcc0db3bfa789eb4afbd89a37794a4c49a5f529ddb1b23e85b3", "remote_txid": "ta48849fkkek39947uuc80371ec96a88297465821ee79ff0b85f8624f83a7455f1cc", "remote_pending_txid": "", "local_commit_fee_sat": "2510", "remote_commit_fee_sat": "2510", "remote_pending_commit_fee_sat": "0" }, "closing_txid": "eeof599490930002dcc0db3bfa789eb4afbd89a37794a4c49a5f529ddb1b23e85b3" ``` What we see here is that our LND sees that channel as borked, we have a an *opening_tx* (`channel_point:vout`), a *local_tx* and a *remote_tx*. What's usually the next step, we wonder why it's not closing, so we copy the ``` "closing_txid": "eeof599490930002dcc0db3bfa789eb4afbd89a37794a4c49a5f529ddb1b23e85b3" ``` and copy it into our favorite mempool tool. Just for guiding sake, we check with [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/), and now it's the time to split into two scenarios ### Scenario 1: mempool.space shows the closing-tx, but it's unconfirmed and the fee is too low What many runners don't know, mempool.space runs with a mempool-size of 2GB, while most standard node-systems run with just 300MB. This is usually enough, but not in high fee environments. So let's check if your local mempool has it: ``` bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction eeof599490930002dcc0db3bfa789eb4afbd89a37794a4c49a5f529ddb1b23e85b3 error code: -5 error message: No such mempool or blockchain transaction. Use gettransaction for wallet transactions. ``` In this case your mempool probably purged the transaction, or LND never published it due to it's low commitment fee. Let's jump to the next section to see what we can do about it. ### Scenario 2: mempool.space shows `Transaction not found` Okay, we can assume that your closing-tx probably never hit the public-mempool, we can cut things short here and move to the next section, but just to be safe, let's check if our local bitcoin-mempool has it ``` bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction eeof599490930002dcc0db3bfa789eb4afbd89a37794a4c49a5f529ddb1b23e85b3 error code: -5 error message: No such mempool or blockchain transaction. Use gettransaction for wallet transactions. ``` ## Complication Why are there transactions of channel-closes with too low fee? Can't LND figure out what fee is necessary and get things just out there? I want my funds! Well... and this is already way better than earlier last year  Let's assume best intend, no-one built that protocol to make things intentionally complicated. But since you have two parties involved in the process, and we should assume no-trust between those, we need to install processes to keep things fair, balanced and transparent. Read up on the [HTLC-detail guide from Elle Mouton](https://www.ellemouton.com/posts/htlc-deep-dive/) to make yourself more familiar with the details. In short, we have 2 (out of 3) possible ways for a channel-close: 1. **cooperative-close**, where both parties are online, one of the two sends a channel-close signal, and then both nodes get to court and negotiate a closing price. Since only the opener pays for the closing-cost, it's imminent it's not sky high. There are settings in `lnd.conf` like `coop-close-target-confs=100` which help to keep things rational from your side if the other side triggered the close. 2. **force- or uncooperative-close**, where either one of the two parties is unresponsive / offline, or other protocol / node-OS disagreements happen (like expiring HTLCs). In either case one of the two parties force-close, there is no court-negotiation, but based on the last channel_commit agreement the two nodes handshaken on, will be used for the closing-fee. Those agreements are also based on a few `lnd.conf` settings, like `max-commit-fee-rate-anchors` and `bitcoind.estimatemode`[^2]. Either have their intricacies, but when the channel-close is not in **your local mempool, or too low fee in the public mempool**, you can't get the channel closed and the onchain-sats stay locked away. ## Proposed Solutions We won't outline every possible scenario, but a couple of most happening ones. Some will work, others not. To avoid this article becoming a master-class, let's go through a couple of those which are doing no-harm, but helping you worse case to get some more information what's happening. For each of those attempts, **prepare a second terminal window** to your node, and filter (`grep`) the channel-point and pubkey of the channel, so you'll be more informed after of what's happening. This terminal will monitor your `lnd.log` and show only entries where either the Pubkey of your to be closed channel-peer, or your mutual channel-point is triggered. ``` sudo tail -f .lnd/logs/bitcoin/mainnet/lnd.log | grep -e 'PUBKEYOFCHANNELPARTNER|CHANNELPOINT:VOUT' ``` While Terminal 2 stays open, let's move to Terminal Window 1 for the next couple of commands. We'll try one after the other, and this guide will be verbose if there's risk or sat-spending involved. It's sorted from lowest risk / spend to highest, top down. ### 1. Reconnect Many coop-close attempts fail, because when both nodes go to court, there is a possibility to not find consensus on the closing fee. Let's see if this is the reason, you'll see entries like commit-fee proposal staggering up, and whether you'll find consensus `lncli disconnect PUBKEY && lncli connect PUBKEY@ADDRESS:PORT` If the closing attempts fail, you'll see that each time, the delta between your node and your channel-peer will get closer. Eventually it'll work, if not, check your `lnd.conf` settings and eg change `bitcoind.estimatemode=ECONOMICAL` to `bitcoind.estimatemode=CONSERVATIVE`. ### 2. Restart LND Sometimes closing attempts miss a broadcast due to a missing connection to bitcoind. Restarting LND rebroadcasts every pending channel-close and sweeps, so give this a shot and check your terminal 2 while LND is taking it's time to come back up. Really, you need some patience here. ### 3. Reinitiate coop-close (and force-close) Try to close the channel again, in rare cases this would solve something which 1. didn't: `lncli closechannel --chan_point CHANPOINT:VOUT --sat_per_vbyte XX`. This may offer some more insight in your Terminal 2 window. You can do the same for the force-close, just need to adjust the command slightly. For the record, I never had this situation, but it's not doing any harm in case you know it's a force-close anyway: `lncli closechannel --chan_point CHANPOINT:VOUT --force`. We can omit the target sat/vbyte setting since force-closes use the last agreed commit-fee of both you and your peer. ### 4. Increase local Mempool size This solves for a couple of things, both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 above, at least as a preparation. Open your bitcoind-configuration with `sudo nano .bitcoin/bitcoin.conf` to lookup and edit the following entry to `2000`, which increases it to 2GB: ``` # Increase Mempool size maxmempool=2000 ``` Restart bitcoind (typically `sudo systemctl restart bitcoind` to take this setting into effect. And either LND already restarted by itself, or trigger a manual restart with `sudo systemctl restart lnd`. Watch Terminal 2, to see whether your 300MB previous mempool was too limited to accept your LND-closing. With 2GB, that limitation is lifted (a little) and potentially allows your LND to broadcast the closing-tx. ### 5. Manually broadcast the closing-transaction Eventually 4. allows your local mempool to pick up the closing transaction. Sometimes it doesn't. Or your mempool has it, but the public mempool didn't. Without either your bitcoind node, or the public mempools knowing about this tx, your channel can't get closed. In this event, let's look at how to broadcast it manually and see what response we get in both Terminals. 1. Local Mempool check: Follow Scenario 1. 2. If it's a *No*, does [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/) have it? Then open the tx there, and grab the RAW-tx by appending the txid here: `https://mempool.space/api/tx/[TXID]/hex`. Copy the whole long string, and execute the local broadcast in your Terminal 1 with `lncli wallet publishtx RAWTX`. 3. If that's a *No* too, check your LND, it should have it (only in rare circumstances, like SCBs, LND doesn't have the raw-tx: `lncli listchaintxns --start_height 818181 --end_height -1`. Substitute `818181` with the current mempool height to filter the transaction output **showing only not confirmed pending transactions** (utxos). You'll get the raw-tx there, and can use it with `lncli wallet publishtx RAWTX` as above. 4. If your local Mempool has it, but [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/) doesn't, there is no harm broadcasting it there as well. Follow Scenario 1 to retrieve the raw-txid from your local mempool, and copy it [in here](https://mempool.space/tx/push). ### 6. Increase the closing-fee So mempools know about your closing-tx, but it's way too low. Let's assume it hangs at 10sat/vbyte (like many pending closing-tx these days), but let's also assume we won't see <30sat/vbyte anytime soon. Because you'd always have the option to wait for 10sats, your tx will eventually confirm. But you don't want to wait, then you'll need to pay up. Disclaimer: This one is costing you. No matter who the opener of the channel was (who always pays for both un- and cooperative-closings), the next step costs *You*. So be concious about it. The LND Guide linked above has a succinct [closing channels section](https://docs.lightning.engineering/lightning-network-tools/lnd/unconfirmed-bitcoin-transactions#docs-internal-guid-5647dd03-7fff-dc71-47cf-5f7e2155a44d). And since you inhaled that guide, you'll know the next steps: 1. For Coop-Closes, you can `lncli wallet bumpfee -h` to make yourself familiar with the options. It's pretty self-explanatory, `lncli wallet bumpfee --conf_target 6 CHANPOINT:VOUT` will ask your local mempool for a sat/vbyte target and set the new closing fee. With `lncli wallet bumpfee --sat_per_vbyte 36 CHANPOINT:VOUT`, you can set a confident 36 sats/vbyte yourself. Watch Terminal 2 and see what lnd.log tells you. 2. For Force-Closes, you need a so called CPFP (Child Pays For Parent) transaction, which will become a child of your existing closing fee, and at the same time expensive enough, that both parent + child and their fees will be attractive enough for a miner to pick up and mine it. You can either do some pre-calc [with a helper script](https://gist.github.com/TrezorHannes/9caa88cb8d287cc6ab6a9cb5fb892195), or try current mempool medium fee x 2. Not a problem if you don't start high enough, you can follow step 1. above here with this new child-transaction and bump it's fee with RBF any time later: `lncli wallet bumpclosefee -h` for the options: - `lncli wallet bumpclosefee --conf_target 6 CHANPOINT:VOUT` will ask your local mempool for a sat/vbyte target and set the fee for the child-tx. - `lncli wallet bumpclosefee --sat_per_vbyte 100 CHANPOINT:VOUT` will set the child-tx at 100, presumably ending up with 50 sats/vbyte effective rate for both your parent and your child to be mined. Note that none of this works if your local mempool doesn't have that txid. So follow steps 1-5 before trying this one. Now but if it worked, you'll be prompted with a new txid for your child, which you can later check in your local mempool, and ideally it'll land in the public mempools to be mined as well. If it ended up too low, bump it with RBF (replace by fee) described in point 1, but targeting your child. ### 7. Go out of band Just for completion, there are various miners who offer their mining service for your tx for a hefty cost. This sometimes might be necessary, eg for your channels where the other side force-closed on you, but you only have a static channel-commitment. If your peer is unresponsive or not cooperative to do a CPFP on their side, you'll wait until forever. Check your favorite search engine, ViaBTC or [mempool.space](https://mempool.space/) for their acceleration services. Hope you enjoyed this article. Please do share feedback and suggestions for improvement. If this guide was of any help, I'd appreciate if you share the article with others, give me a follow on X [](https://twitter.com/HodlmeTight1337) or [nostr](https://njump.me/npub1ch25m5lkk8kfepr63f0jnpd9te8l9f585pfpr2g2ma4pre9rmlrqlu0yjy), perhaps even donating some sats to [hakuna@getalby.com](https://getalby.com/p/hakuna) I'm also always grateful for incoming channels to my node: [HODLmeTight](https://amboss.space/node/037f66e84e38fc2787d578599dfe1fcb7b71f9de4fb1e453c5ab85c05f5ce8c2e3) See the [gist of it on my github](https://gist.github.com/TrezorHannes/7378c2f3ca5466ffcdafa6ab9ecd2e43). [^1]: For `umbrel`, you need to jump through some loops for the command `lncli` and `bitcoin-cli`. You need to add this whole string before: `~/umbrel/scripts/app compose lightning exec lnd lncli` and `~/umbrel/scripts/app compose bitcoin exec bitcoind bitcoin-cli` respectively. To simplify things, create a temporary alias with `alias lncli="/home/umbrel/umbrel/scripts/app compose lightning exec lnd lncli"` and `alias bitcoin-cli="~/umbrel/scripts/app compose bitcoin exec bitcoind bitcoin-cli"`, then all of the above commands should work. [^2]: Wonder what your channel-peers current commit-fee is? And whether they use anchors or static channel-fee commitments? Check out this [bash-script](https://github.com/blckbx/NodeTools/blob/main/anchor_check.sh), among other Node-Tools available as open-source.

@ 46fcbe30:6bd8ce4d

Opinion about Mycelium Wallet <!--HEADER END--> test <!--FOOTER START--> #WalletScrutiny #NostrComment [join the conversation!](https://walletscrutiny.com/)

@ 28246aee:62b108ad

This post was originally published on [https://tftc.io](https://tftc.io) by Marty Bent. [Read original post](https://tftc.io/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-surveillance-rules-for-bitcoin/) We submitted a legal response to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and FinCEN’s proposed rules that would seriously harm privacy by effectively prohibiting basic bitcoin best practices such as not reusing addresses and collaborative bitcoin transactions. Below is an exact reproduction of the letter we have submitted to Treasury and FinCEN as part of the public request for comment period. We are proud to have 26 bitcoin companies sign this letter to FinCEN in agreement with this position. They are listed individually at the bottom of this page. You can download a PDF of the letter here: [ Section-311-Mixing-Transactions-Designation-NPRM-Comment-Letter Section-311-Mixing-Transactions-Designation-NPRM-Comment-Letter.pdf 608 KB .a{fill:none;stroke:currentColor;stroke-linecap:round;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-width:1.5px;}download-circle ](https://tftc.io/content/files/2024/01/Section-311-Mixing-Transactions-Designation-NPRM-Comment-Letter.pdf "Download") Here it is in it's entirety: Andrea Gacki January 22, 2024 _Director_ Financial Crimes Enforcement Network U.S. Department of the Treasury P.O. Box 39 Vienna, VA 22183 **SUBMITTED ELECTRONICALLY** **Re:** **_Docket Number FINCEN–2023–0016_** **– Proposal of Special Measure Regarding Convertible Virtual Currency Mixing as a Class of Transactions of Primary Money Laundering Concern** Dear Director Gacki: We appreciate the opportunity to comment on Docket Number FINCEN-2023-0016 (the "Mixing Transaction NPRM"), released by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ("FinCEN") on October 22, 2023.[\[1\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn1) We are a variety of unaffiliated companies that rely on important cybersecurity safeguards and privacy-enabling software to protect our businesses and our users. The extreme breadth of the rules proposed by the Mixing Transaction NPRM would overly burden our use of such technologies in ways that would not assist FinCEN in achieving its mandate of preventing money laundering and other illicit use of money. As a result, we write to express our grave concerns regarding the novelty and scope of the Proposed Special Measures and the inadequate definitions contained therein.[\[2\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn2) The Proposed Special Measures would unreasonably infringe upon the legitimate financial privacy interests of cryptocurrency users, and would apply to a variety of digital techniques that are not mixing transactions at all, but rather simply represent good cybersecurity practices. Moreover, the Proposed Special Measures are unnecessary to achieve FinCEN's aim, and we encourage FinCEN to either withdraw the Mixing Transaction NPRM altogether or to pursue a less invasive, less restrictive, and more effective approach—the same approach it has used since its first enforcement activities in the cryptocurrency space in 2013—to enforcement against specific bad actors. ### 1\. **FinCEN should exercise caution and either withdraw entirely or narrowly tailor the Mixing Transaction NPRM because if adopted, the Mixing Transaction NPRM would not only represent the first time FinCEN used its Section 311 powers against a class of transactions, but also the first time FinCEN has ever imposed Special Measure 1.** Historically, FinCEN has exercised caution in making designations under Section 311 and implementing Special Measures. Section 311 (31 U.S.C. 5318A), authorizes the U.S. Department of Treasury ("Treasury") to designate a foreign jurisdiction, financial institution, class of transactions, or type of account as being of "primary money laundering concern" and impose one or more of five possible "special measures." Treasury delegated that authority to FinCEN, which has used its power quite sparingly since Section 311's enactment. The first Section 311 action instituted by FinCEN in the virtual currency space occurred in 2013, when FinCEN instituted special measures against Liberty Reserve. Prior to that time, between 2002 and 2013, FinCEN had only ever implemented special measures against just four jurisdictions and 13 financial institutions. After a protracted legal battle regarding a Section 311 action between 2015-2017, FinCEN seemed reluctant to use its Section 311 powers widely. [\[3\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn3) The creation of the Global Investigations Division (GID) in 2019 [\[4\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn4) and the enactment of the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020, which increased FinCEN's authority "to prohibit or impose conditions upon certain transmittals of funds (to be defined by the Secretary) by any domestic financial institution or domestic financial agency," [\[5\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn5) coincided with an uptick in the use of Section 311 powers and a broadening of FinCEN's attention to all 5 available Special Measures. Importantly, throughout its use of Section 311, FinCEN traditionally imposes Special Measure Number 5 to isolate a specific foreign financial institution and prevent it from accessing the U.S. financial system. Until this Mixing Transaction NPRM, FinCEN has only used Special Measure Number 1 one other time—in 2012 against JSC CredexBank ("Credex").[\[6\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn6) FinCEN later withdrew that proposed rule in 2016. [\[7\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn7) If adopted, the Mixing Transaction NPRM would constitute the first time FinCEN has imposed Special Measure Number 1 in exercising its Section 311 Powers. Moreover, this Mixing Transaction NPRM represents the very first time FinCEN has sought to designate an entire class of transactions as a primary money laundering concern. We encourage FinCEN to exercise extreme caution in the exercise of its Section 311 powers in such a novel way—the first-ever designation of a class of transactions and the first-ever imposition of Special Measure 1. Exercising caution in Section 311 powers reflects the seriousness of Treasury's policy purposes for invoking its powers to make primary money laundering concern designations and impose special measures—namely, to act as a signal to the world that FinCEN is "serious about ensuring that the international financial system is safeguarded against the threat of money laundering." [\[8\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn8) As Treasury explained in the press release announcing the very first use of its Section 311 powers in 2002, when FinCEN uses Section 311, "\[FinCEN\] tell\[s\] the world clearly that these jurisdictions \[or entities or transactions\] are bad for business and that their financial controls cannot be trusted." [\[9\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn9) For the reasons further explained below, FinCEN's targeting of convertible virtual currency ("CVC") [\[10\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn10) purported "mixing" transactions does not achieve these aims. Rather than target transactions that are "bad for business," the Mixing Transaction NPRM targets an overly broad range of technical approaches used as best practices both by businesses and individuals for ensuring the security of CVC and impinges on privacy rights of legitimate users of CVC. In an attempt to exercise authority it has never used before (class of transactions) through a special measure it has never previously imposed successfully (special measure 1), FinCEN created a proposed rule fraught with misunderstandings and overreach. We urge FinCEN to withdraw the rule and reconsider its approach to this novel use of its authority. ### 2\. **The Mixing Transaction NPRM proposes a rule that is an improper and overbroad application of Section 311 measures to achieve transaction surveillance and suppression that FinCEN does not otherwise have a lawful basis to undertake.** Although the Mixing Transaction NPRM ostensibly designates a class of transactions as being of Primary Money Laundering Concern, its real goal is to uncover an alternative method for collecting information about and suppressing the use of digital currency in general. The Mixing Transaction NPRM is an improper and overbroad application of Section 311 measures for that purpose. Indeed, although the Mixing Transaction NPRM allegedly sanctions a class of transactions, it inconsistently throughout refers to "CVC mixers," "CVC mixing" and "CVC mixing services" by reference to specific business entities [\[11\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn11) and as a type of business model more generally.[\[12\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn12) If FinCEN has reason to believe specific entities conduct illicit activities, FinCEN could use the Section 311 powers it has traditionally and successfully used to target specific entities as financial institutions of primary money laundering concern. Such an approach offers a more targeted way to address actual money laundering while protecting legitimate users of legitimate privacy-enhancing tools. Notably, Treasury has separately sanctioned what it refers to as CVC mixing transactions through its Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) authority to designate people or property who conduct transactions with specifically designated foreign jurisdictions identified through executive order as posing terrorist threats. [\[13\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn13) Treasury is currently facing legal challenges to, and has been widely criticized for, its attempt to sanction the Tornado Cash open source software as property of a non-existent entity Treasury alleges is called "the Tornado Cash DAO entity." [\[14\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn14) Although we agree with the many arguments as to why Treasury's OFAC action with regard to Tornado Cash software is an example of agency overreach, we wish to make a different but related point here. To justify its OFAC sanctions against the Tornado Cash software, Treasury had to designate the software as property of an entity. [\[15\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn15) OFAC officially explained as part of defending its sanction to a judge that the Tornado Cash software was property under Treasury's regulations because it fell within the broad reach of "any contract whatsoever." [\[16\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn16) Although the definition of "transaction" under the BSA regulations is quite broad, it does not encompass "any contract whatsoever" but rather centers on monetary transfers and specific services offered by financial institutions, and provides a catch-all for "any other payment, transfer, or delivery by, through or to a financial institution, by whatever means effected." [\[17\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn17) No part of the definition applicable to CVC mixing is also a contract.[\[18\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn18) In other words, in proposing the Mixing Transaction NPRM, one arm of Treasury is classifying CVC mixing as a transaction type while another arm of Treasury argues that mixing is a contract for services. Under the regulations governing both enforcement actions, mixing activity cannot be both a transaction type and a contract for service simultaneously. Treasury's attempt to designate mixing software as both a type of transaction and a contract is evidence of the arbitrary and capricious nature of its attempt to regulate open-source software that enhances the digital privacy of legitimate CVC users. To the extent that FinCEN really wants to target non-custodial, open-source software that individuals can use on their own accounts, FinCEN exceeds its statutory authority. Indeed, tools that enhance digital privacy in CVC transactions simply seek to enable a form of digital cash. As a result, in its rush to find a way to suppress CVC mixing transactions, by whichever means, even if inconsistent amongst different internal branches of its own agency, FinCEN's Mixing Transaction NPRM amounts to an attempt to sanction "all transactions conducted in cash," which is both impossible and an unreasonable over-extension of its rulemaking authority. ### 3\. **The Mixing Transaction NPRM should be withdrawn because the proposed definition of "CVC mixing" is overbroad and targets lawful activity in a way that makes the agency's proposed action arbitrary and capricious.** Setting aside FinCEN's own apparent confusion about whether CVC mixing is a transaction, a service, a business, or a specific business entity, when FinCEN does attempt to define the "class" of transactions that it considers to be CVC mixing, the Mixing Transaction NPRM's definition of "mixing" is extremely broad and includes numerous activities routinely conducted by legitimate users as a matter of routine safety precautions in online transacting in CVC. Specifically, the Mixing Transaction NPRM provides: > The term "CVC mixing" means the facilitation of CVC transactions in a manner that obfuscates the source, destination, or amount involved in one or more transactions, regardless of the type of protocol or service used, such as: (1) pooling or aggregating CVC from multiple persons, wallets, addresses or accounts; (2) using programmatic or algorithmic code to coordinate, manage, or manipulate the structure of a transaction; (3) splitting CVC for transmittal and transmitting the CVC through a series of independent transactions; (4) creating and using single-use wallets, addresses, or accounts, and sending CVC through such wallets, addresses, or accounts through a series of independent transactions; (5) exchanging between types of CVC or other digital assets; [\[19\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn19) or (6) facilitating user-initiated delays in transactional activity. [\[20\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn20) Indeed, most of the activities captured by the proposed definition of CVC mixing are considered established best practices within the industry for the use and safekeeping of CVC. Specifically, the proposed definition encompasses lightning transactions, single-use wallets, atomic swaps, decentralized finance protocols, privacy coin features, and multi-signature wallets, among other things. The main commonality among this broad range of software tools is that they enhance digital privacy and offer basic cyber-security techniques to owners or custodians of CVC. Employing these techniques to safeguard valuable digital assets is as routine and mundane and free of illicit purpose as using two-factor authentication to secure a digital wallet containing payment card information or an X (formerly Twitter) account to prevent an unauthorized announcement.[\[21\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn21) ### 4\. **The Mixing Transaction NPRM should be withdrawn because its inaccurate depiction of standard security practices as "mixing" impermissibly restricts the capacity of users to protect their property so that FinCEN can conduct a fishing expedition.** The proposed rule describes as red flags such everyday practices as "creating and using single address wallets" and "splitting CVC for transmittal." [\[22\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn22) The standard practice among cryptocurrency users is to change addresses with every transaction. For example, Coinbase Exchange describes to their users that: "\[w\]e automatically generate a new address for you after every transaction you make or when funds are moved between your wallet and our storage system. This is done to protect your privacy, so a third party cannot view all other transactions associated with your account simply by using a blockchain explorer." [\[23\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn23) The fact that a small subset of users, who may be criminals, engage in the same operational security practices as ordinary users does not make those operational security practices suspect. The fact that criminals may use two-factor authentication to protect the security of their online applications does not mean that the use of two-factor authentication is itself an indicator or facilitator of criminal activity. In exactly the same way, the fact that users do not reuse Bitcoin addresses is merely indicative of basic operational security. In an apparent recognition of the fact that these tools legitimately enable important cyber-security precautions, FinCEN exempts financial institutions from reporting on any of their own mixing transactions that they may conduct in the course of providing services to the public.[\[24\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn24) By exempting financial institutions from the rule, FinCEN creates a regime where financial institutions can take proper cyber-security measures for using CVC, but regular people cannot. Perhaps even more problematic, throughout the Mixing Transaction NPRM, FinCEN justifies the proposed rule as necessary to enable law enforcement and the agency to better understand the transactions and the extent to which illicit activity occurs through CVC mixing. [\[25\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn25) The extraordinary and never before successfully invoked Section 311 power to designate a class of transactions and implement special measure 1 is not appropriate for use in a fact-finding mission. Employing such overly broad definitions as proposed in the Mixing Transaction NPRM for the purpose of authorizing an invasive fact-finding mission represents an arbitrary and capricious use of FinCEN's delegated rulemaking authority because FinCEN's justification for the rule lies outside of the statutory criteria for determining a class of transactions is of primary money laundering concern. Specifically, FinCEN is statutorily required to consider the following factors when determining that a class of transactions is of primary money laundering concern: (1) the extent to which the class of transactions is used to facilitate or promote money laundering in or through a jurisdiction outside of the United States, including money laundering activity with connections to international terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation of WMDs and missiles; (2) the extent to which a class of transactions is used for legitimate business purposes; and (3) the extent to which action by FinCEN would guard against international money laundering and other financial crimes." [\[26\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn26) Throughout the Mixing Transaction NPRM, FinCEN acknowledges that due to a lack of data and a lack of understanding of CVC mixers, it cannot sufficiently assess the extent to which CVC mixing and the proposed rule measures up under any of these three criteria. [\[27\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn27) FinCEN's assessment ultimately boils down to: FinCEN does not have sufficient information to properly assess the statutory criteria required to justify the proposed rule, so the proposed rule is justified because, in FinCEN's own words, it "is necessary to better understand the illicit finance risk posed by CVC mixing." [\[28\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn28) Using a sanction to obtain the information necessary to justify imposing the sanction even when the agency knows that doing so will likely impose a high burden on legitimate uses and financial institutions is the definition of arbitrary and capricious regulatory action. ### 5\. **The Mixing Transaction NPRM should be withdrawn or significantly narrowed in scope because FinCEN's required statutory analysis fails to adequately value the legitimate uses of CVC mixing services and unduly burdens legitimate users and financial institutions.** FinCEN admits that public blockchains "make it possible to know someone's entire financial history on the blockchain" [\[29\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn29) and that it "recognizes that there are legitimate reasons why responsible actors might want to conduct financial transactions in a secure and private manner given the amount of information available on public blockchains." [\[30\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn30) Yet, in the same document, alleges that the Mixing Transaction NPRM is necessary because CVC "is not without its risks and, in particular, the use of CVC to anonymize illicit activity undermines the legitimate and innovative uses of CVC." [\[31\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn31) These two propositions cannot be simultaneously accurate. As a matter of technical reality, FinCEN's assertion that public blockchains expose a user's entire financial history on the blockchain to the public for everyone to see and inspect is correct. [\[32\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn32) Indeed, that creates the fundamental need for legitimate CVC users to conduct CVC mixing transactions—to reintroduce the same level of financial privacy that they enjoy in the traditional financial system [\[33\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn33) to their transactions via CVC (for example, the traditional financial system does not expose a consumer's entire credit card history to the public, and indeed, federal law requires that financial institutions protect such information from being exposed to the public [\[34\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn34)). [\[35\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn35) Ensuring their CVC transactions enjoy the same level of privacy as transactions in traditional finance reduces the potential danger of personal harm to legitimate users and enables legitimate users to avoid waiving their constitutional right to privacy. When the identity of a legitimate CVC user is known and connected to the wallets holding CVC assets, the user becomes a target for kidnap, robbery, extortion, and hacking schemes. [\[36\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn36) Further, because of this inherent transparency by design of public blockchains, the Fifth Circuit recently ruled that no expectation of privacy exists for users of permissionless public blockchains who take no additional action to privacy-protect their transactions. [\[37\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn37) Legitimate users employ privacy-enhancing software when transacting in CVC in order to avoid inadvertently waiving their constitutionally protected privacy rights. Ultimately, FinCEN has completely failed in its obligation to adequately account for the impact on legitimate users as required by its rulemaking authority. In defending its selection of special measure 1 over 2 through 5, FinCEN emphasizes, without explanation, that special measure 1—additional record keeping—allows legitimate users to continue using privacy-enhancing software without interruption. [\[38\]](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fn38) This is false, as covered entities must report on any transaction that may have involved CVC mixing and a foreign jurisdiction. Indeed, read broadly, it is possible that the rules proposed by the Mixing Transaction NPRM require reporting on transactions that involve CVC that were transacted through mixing software at any point in the asset's transaction history. Such reporting directly impedes the reasons for which legitimate users employ mixing software (to enhance financial privacy) by requiring the elimination of financial privacy (it is not a private transaction if an intermediary must surveil and report on the transaction). Software tools like mixers that enhance digital financial privacy provide a true electronic equivalent to cash. Notably, transactions in cash are not subject to rules such as those proposed in the Mixing Transaction NPRM. In an apparent acknowledgment of this deep and inherent conflict between the rules proposed by the Mixing Transaction NPRM and the legitimate uses to which legitimate users put CVC mixing software, FinCEN itself predicts that the rule will chill the use of CVC mixers. ### 6\. **The Mixing Transaction NPRM should be withdrawn because it requires covered financial institutions to perform law enforcement's function to accomplish FinCEN's AML goals, which FinCEN, DOJ, and law enforcement can achieve using existing tools when they have a proper legal basis to employ those tools.** Like the definitions of CVC mixing and CVC mixer, the Mixing Transaction NPRM's information reporting requirements demonstrate a deep lack of technological understanding. Notably, all of the transaction information that the Mixing Transaction NPRM proposes to include in required reports by covered financial institutions involves data that, in most circumstances, FinCEN can just as easily obtain itself through blockchain data analytics. Similarly, the customer information that FinCEN would require covered financial institutions to report includes the same kinds of information such institutions must already report if a transaction raises sufficient red flags to trigger the filing of a Suspicious Activity Report (SAR). Nevertheless, the Mixing Transaction NPRM seeks to require covered financial institutions to file such reports on every single transaction for which the CVC involved may have ever been transacted through the extremely broad set of software that FinCEN's proposed rule defines as CVC mixing software. In other words, because law enforcement investigations into activity involving CVC are sometimes more difficult, FinCEN seeks to impose broad surveillance of individuals without cause through covered financial institutions. Covered financial institutions should not have to become _de facto_ law enforcement officers to make investigations easier for FinCEN. FinCEN, the Department of Justice, and law enforcement have previously and successfully employed the very tools FinCEN asks financial institutions to use for reporting compliance under the Mixing Transaction NPRM to target specific illicit actors. FinCEN has demonstrated that it knows how to properly investigate and enforce against specific custodial CVC mixing service providers that are not complying with the regulations to which they are subject. Specifically targeting illicit actors about which FinCEN and law enforcement have built a clear, strong case using the available blockchain data analytics tools better balances the need to combat illicit CVC mixing with the legitimate use of CVC mixing by individuals seeking to protect their legitimate, constitutionally and statutorily protected privacy interests. For all of the reasons discussed above, we urge FinCEN to withdraw the Mixing Transaction NPRM altogether. Thank you for your consideration. If you have any questions or would like additional information, please see the contact information below: Rafael Yakobi, Esq. _Managing Partner_ The Crypto Lawyers, PLLC. [rafael@thecryptolawyers.com](mailto:rafael@thecryptolawyers.com) (619) 317-0722 **Sincerely,**  [Samourai Wallet](https://samouraiwallet.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Ten31](https://ten31.vc/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [River](https://river.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Strike](https://strike.me/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [RoninDojo](https://ronindojo.io/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Swan Bitcoin](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Primal](https://primal.net/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [GRIID](https://www.griid.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Zaprite](https://zaprite.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Peach](https://peachbitcoin.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Mempool Space](https://mempool.space/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Upstream Data](https://upstreamdata.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Stakwork](https://stakwork.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Vida Global](https://vida.page/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Voltage](https://voltage.cloud/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Coinkite](https://www.coinkite.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Mutiny Wallet](https://www.mutinywallet.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Standard Bitcoin Company](https://standardbitcoin.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Satoshi Energy](https://satoshienergy.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Cathedra Bitcoin](https://cathedra.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [AnchorWatch](https://www.anchorwatch.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Bitnob](https://bitnob.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Oshi](https://www.oshi.tech/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Battery Finance](https://www.batteryfinance.io/?ref=blog.samourai.is),[Fold](https://foldapp.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is), [Start9](https://start9.com/?ref=blog.samourai.is) * * * 1. FinCEN, Proposal of Special Measure Regarding Convertible Virtual Currency Mixing, as a Class of Transactions of Primary Money Laundering Concern, Dkt. FINCEN-2023-0016 (Oct. 22, 2023) [https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/federal\_register\_notices/2023-10-19/FinCEN\_311MixingNPRM\_FINAL.pdf](https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/federal_register_notices/2023-10-19/FinCEN_311MixingNPRM_FINAL.pdf?ref=blog.samourai.is) \[hereinafter Mixing Transaction NPRM”\] [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref1) 2. In this regard, we intend this letter to specifically respond to FinCEN’s request for comments A(1)-(8), B(2)-(3), C(1), D(2), and D(11) as listed in the Mixing Transaction NPRM. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref2) 3. See FBME Bank Ltd. v. Lew, 125 F. Supp. 3d 109 (D.D.C. 2015); FBME Bank Ltd. v. Lew, 142 F.Supp.3d 70 (D.D.C. 2015); FBME Bank Ltd. v. Lew, 209 F.Supp.3d 299 (D.D.C. 2016); FBME Bank Ltd. v. Munchin, 249 F. Supp.3d 215 (D.D.C. 2017). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref3) 4. FinCEN, Press Release, New FinCEN Division Focuses on Identifying Primary Foreign Money Laundering Threats (Aug. 28, 2019),[https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/new-fincen-division-focuses-identifying-primary-foreign-money-laundering-threats](https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/new-fincen-division-focuses-identifying-primary-foreign-money-laundering-threats?ref=blog.samourai.is). We note with some alarm that the timing of GID’s creation coincided with the release of FinCEN’s 2019 CVC guidance, indicating that perhaps the two were coordinated and greater targeting of CVC users has been underway for some time. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref4) 5. 2021 NDAA, Section 9714, [https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr6395/BILLS-116hr6395enr.pdf](https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr6395/BILLS-116hr6395enr.pdf?ref=blog.samourai.is). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref5) 6. 77 Fed. Reg. 31,794 (Mar. 30, 2012). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref6) 7. 81 Fed. Reg. 14,408 (Mar. 17, 2016). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref7) 8. U.S. Dept. Treas., Press Release, Fact Sheet Regarding the Treasury Department’s Use of Sanctions: Authorized Under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT ACT (Dec. 20, 2002), [https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/po3711](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/po3711?ref=blog.samourai.is). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref8) 9. Id. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref9) 10. We note that we dislike the term convertible virtual currency, as it does not fit industry understanding of the technical realities of cryptocurrencies and their many uses. We use the term in this letter only because it is the language that FinCEN has adopted for the implementation of its regulations. As an aside, we would encourage FinCEN to adopt more technically accurate vocabulary for implementing its regulations, as doing so would help FinCEN avoid proposing unworkable and overbroad regulations such as the Mixing Transaction NPRM. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref10) 11. See, e.g., Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 15 (“ChipMixer, a darknet CVC ‘mixing’ service”); 16 (referring to Bestmixer.io as a CVC mixing transaction); 20 (referring to enforcement against “Bitcoin Fog”). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref11) 12. See, e.g., id. at 5 (“persons who facilitate…CVC mixing transactions”); 18 (“RAILGUN falls under the umbrella of CVC mixing…because it uses its privacy protocol to manipulate the structure of the transaction to appear as being sent from the RAILGUN contract address, thus obscuring the true originator.”); 20 (“CVC mixing services often deliberately operate opaquely…”.) [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref12) 13. U.S. Dpt. Treas., Press Release, U.S. Treasury Sanctions Notorious Virtual Currency Mixer Tornado Cash (Aug. 8, 2022), [https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0916?ref=blog.samourai.is). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref13) 14. See, e.g., Van Loon et. al., v. OFAC, No. 23-506669 (5th Cir. 2023) (notably, a variety of amici intervened with arguments critiquing the OFAC sanction at both the District Court and 5th Circuit Court of Appeals); Peter Van Valkenburgh, New Tornado Cash Indictments Seem to Run Counter to FinCEN Guidance, CoinCenter (Aug. 23, 2023), [https://www.coincenter.org/new-tornado-cash-indictments-seem-to-run-counter-to-fincen-guidance/](https://www.coincenter.org/new-tornado-cash-indictments-seem-to-run-counter-to-fincen-guidance/?ref=blog.samourai.is). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref14) 15. OFAC, FAQ 1095, [https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1095](https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1095?ref=blog.samourai.is) (“OFAC designated the entity known as Tornado Cash, which is a “partnership, association, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization” that may be designated pursuant to the IEEPA.”). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref15) 16. See, Order, Van Loon et. al. v. Dpt. Treas., 1:23-CV-312-RP at 18 (W.D. Tx. Aug. 17, 2023). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref16) 17. 31 CFR 1010.100(bbb)(1). “Except as provided in paragraph (bbb)(2) of this section, transaction means a purchase, sale, loan, pledge, gift, transfer, delivery, or other disposition, and with respect to a financial institution includes a deposit, withdrawal, transfer between accounts, exchange of currency, loan, extension of credit, purchase or sale of any stock, bond, certificate of deposit, or other monetary instrument, security, contract of sale of a commodity for future delivery, option on any contract of sale of a commodity for future delivery, option on a commodity, purchase or redemption of any money order, payment or order for any money remittance or transfer, purchase or redemption of casino chips or tokens, or other gaming instruments or any other payment, transfer, or delivery by, through, or to a financial institution, by whatever means effected.” [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref17) 18. Notably, in the Mixing Transaction NPRM, FinCEN refers to Tornado Cash as a “CVC mixer,” not as a CVC mixing transaction. Is mixing a transaction? Is mixing a contract? Is mixing a type of business? The fact that FinCEN cannot decide belies the inappropriateness of using its Section 311 sanctions as proposed. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref18) 19. We note that the Mixing Transaction NPRM does not include a definition of “other digital assets” anywhere. Further, we are unaware of any definition of “digital assets” in FinCEN’s regulations or guidance. Finally, it is not clear to us how FinCEN has authority to impose regulatory reporting requirements upon exchanges of CVC for digital assets that are not CVC. See FinCEN, Application of FinCEN’s Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging or Using Virtual Currencies, FIN-2013-G001 (Mar. 18, 2013) (the phrase “digital assets” appears nowhere in the 2013 Guidance); FinCEN, Application of FinCEN’s Regulations to Certain Business Models Involving Convertible Virtual Currencies (May 9, 2019) (the only time that the phrase “digital assets” appears in the 2019 Guidance is in footnote 75 in reference to the title of the SEC “Framework for Investment Contract Analysis of Digital Assets”). This is just another small but notable way in which FinCEN seeks to overreach its authority through the Mixing Transaction NPRM. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref19) 20. Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 30-31. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref20) 21. True Tamplin, How to Protect Your Digital Wallet from Cyber Threats, Forbes (Dec. 19, 2023, 2:00 pm EST), [https://www.forbes.com/sites/truetamplin/2023/12/19/how-to-protect-your-digital-wallet-from-cyber-threats/?sh=1e9146825981](https://www.forbes.com/sites/truetamplin/2023/12/19/how-to-protect-your-digital-wallet-from-cyber-threats/?sh=1e9146825981&ref=blog.samourai.is) (noting the importance of 2FA for securing digital wallets). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref21) 22. Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 30-31. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref22) 23. See [https://help.coinbase.com/en/exchange/managing-my-account/crypto-address-change](https://help.coinbase.com/en/exchange/managing-my-account/crypto-address-change?ref=blog.samourai.is) [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref23) 24. Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 31. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref24) 25. See, e.g., id. at 24 (“Furthermore, the information generated by this special measure would support investigations into illicit activities by actors who make use of CVC mixing to launder their ill-gotten CVC by law enforcement. At present, there is no similar or equivalent mechanism possessed by law enforcement to readily collect such information, depriving investigators of the information necessary to more effectively understand, investigate and hold illicit actors accountable.”). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref25) 26. 31 U.S.C. 5318A(a)(1). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref26) 27. See Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 19 (not enough data to know how much CVC mixing is used in money laundering); 22 (not enough “available transactional information” for FinCEN to “fully assess the extent to which or quantity thereof CVC mixing activity is attributed to legitimate purposes”); 22 (essentially claiming that FinCEN’s lack of information itself is reason enough to show that getting more information would guard against international money laundering). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref27) 28. Id. at 23. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref28) 29. Id. at 7. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref29) 30. Id. at 21. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref30) 31. Id. at 6-7. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref31) 32. Matthias Nadler & Fabian Schar, Tornado Cash and Blockchain Privacy: A Primer for Economists and Policymakers, 105 Fed Res. Bk. St. Louis Rev. 122 (2023); Vitalik Buterin, et. al., Blockchain Privacy and Regulatory Compliance; Towards a Practical Equilibrium (Sept. 9, 2023) (unpublished manuscript), [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref32) 33. See, e.g., 12 U.S.C. §§ 3401-3423 (the Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978 (RFPA), which protects the confidentiality of personal financial records by creating a statutory fourth amendment protection for bank accounts). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref33) 34. 16 C.F.R. Part 314, 67 Fed. Reg. 36484 (May 23, 2002) (FTC rule addressing the requirement that covered financial institutions safeguard non-public information”) [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref34) 35. Matthias & Schar, supra note 32. [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref35) 36. For a documented timeline of physical attacks on Bitcoin users, see Known Physical Bitcoin Attacks, GitHub [https://github.com/jlopp/physical-bitcoin-attacks/blob/master/README.md](https://github.com/jlopp/physical-bitcoin-attacks/blob/master/README.md?ref=blog.samourai.is) (last visited Jan. 22, 2024). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref36) 37. See United States v. Gratowski, No. 19-50492 (5th Cir. 2020). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref37) 38. Mixing Transaction NPRM, supra note 1, at 25 (special measure 1 is the only special measure that will preserve “legitimate actors’ ability to continue conducting secure and private financial transactions.”). [↩︎](https://blog.samourai.is/our-response-to-fincen-on-proposed-rules-for-bitcoin-mixing/?ref=tftc.io#fnref38)

@ 52921e1f:1c37981b

**Introduction:** Bitcoin, the decentralized digital currency, has emerged as a beacon of hope for individuals seeking financial freedom worldwide. While often associated with affluent countries in the West, the impact of Bitcoin extends far beyond, offering a transformative force that empowers individuals in the face of economic challenges and oppressive governmental regimes. In this post, we will explore how Bitcoin's attributes, including privacy, decentralization, and resistance to attacks, contribute to its potential to enable financial freedom on a global scale. **Privacy and Decentralization:** One of Bitcoin's fundamental strengths lies in its commitment to user privacy and decentralization. Unlike traditional financial systems, Bitcoin transactions are pseudonymous, offering users a degree of privacy that is crucial in regions where financial censorship is rampant. The decentralized nature of the blockchain ensures that there is no single point of control, reducing the risk of manipulation and providing a level playing field for participants globally. **Bitcoin's Imperviousness to Attacks:** Bitcoin's resilience to attacks and censorship sets it apart from traditional forms of currency. Its blockchain, maintained by a network of nodes globally, makes it resistant to tampering or manipulation. This imperviousness to external control becomes particularly significant in regions governed by authoritarian regimes, where seizing physical assets becomes a tool of oppression. With Bitcoin, individuals can securely custody their own coins, making it challenging for any authority to confiscate their wealth. For more on becoming resilient, check out this post: https://bitcoinfortress.substack.com/p/implementing-bitcoin-native-adversarial **Nonviolent Resistance Against Authoritarian Governments:** In the context of oppressive governments, Bitcoin serves as a powerful tool for nonviolent resistance. Authoritarian regimes often suppress dissent by controlling traditional financial systems. Bitcoin, being decentralized and resistant to censorship, enables individuals to move their wealth across borders without fear of confiscation. This financial autonomy becomes a means for peaceful opposition against oppressive regimes, as individuals can exercise control over their economic resources, independent of government interference. For more on the power of peaceful resistance, check out my recent post here: https://bitcoinfortress.substack.com/p/the-power-of-peaceful-resistance **Financial Freedom and Broader Liberties:** Bitcoin's impact on financial freedom goes hand in hand with the broader concept of individual liberties. Financial freedom is a prerequisite for other freedoms, including the right to free speech. In societies where financial autonomy is restricted, the ability to express dissenting opinions is curtailed. Bitcoin empowers individuals to control their finances independently, thereby safeguarding their right to express themselves freely without fear of economic repercussions. **The Illusion of Bitcoin ETFs:** While Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have gained recent approval, it is essential to distinguish them from true Bitcoin ownership. These ETFs represent paper promises held by centralized entities and are susceptible to seizure by authorities. The true value of Bitcoin lies in its self-custody, where individuals hold and control their private keys, ensuring sovereign use of their digital assets. **Prominent Voices in Support of Bitcoin:** Prominent Bitcoin advocates, such as Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation, emphasize the role of Bitcoin in promoting freedom globally. Gladstein highlights how Bitcoin can empower individuals in oppressive regimes by providing a means of financial autonomy that transcends borders. **Conclusion:** In conclusion, Bitcoin emerges as a revolutionary force capable of delivering financial freedom to individuals worldwide. Its privacy features, decentralization, and resistance to attacks make it a formidable tool for nonviolent resistance against authoritarian governments. The recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs should not overshadow the true value of Bitcoin, which lies in individual self-custody and the ability to exercise financial sovereignty. As Bitcoin continues to gain momentum, it stands as a beacon of hope for a more inclusive and liberated global financial system. Not financial or legal advice, for entertainment only, do your own homework. I hope you find this post useful as you chart your personal financial course and Build a Bitcoin Fortress in 2024. Thanks for following my work. Always remember: freedom, health and positivity! Please also check out my Bitcoin Fortress Podcast on all your favorite streaming platforms. I do a weekly Bitcoin news update every week on current items of interest to the Bitcoin community. Please check it out if you haven’t already. Also now on Fountain, where you can earn Bitcoin just for listening to your favorite podcasts.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

How much energy does a sector of the economy have the right to consume? At this very moment, organizations all over the globe are being put under pressure to reduce their usage of non-renewable energy sources and their release of carbon into the environment. However, determining how much consumption is excessive is a difficult subject that is intricately connected to discussions over the priorities that we as a society hold. At the end of the day, a question of values has to be asked in order to choose which products and services are "worth" spending these resources on. Because of the rising popularity of cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular, the topic of energy consumption has emerged as the most recent contentious issue in the broader discussion over what and who digital currencies are really beneficial for. The inquiry about the use of energy seems to be a reasonable one at first glance. The Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) estimates Bitcoin's current annual energy consumption is around 110 Terawatt Hours. This represents 0.55% of the world's total electricity production and is roughly equivalent to the amount of energy consumed annually by smaller countries such as Malaysia or Sweden. This seems like it would need a significant amount of energy. To answer this question, how much power should a monetary system use? Your response to that question will probably determine your feelings about Bitcoin. If you believe that Bitcoin serves no purpose other than that of a ponzi scam or an instrument for money laundering, then it would only be reasonable for you to conclude that utilizing any amount of energy is pointless. If you are one among the tens of millions of people throughout the globe who are utilizing it as a weapon to escape monetary repression, inflation, or capital restrictions, then it is quite probable that you believe the effort is exceptionally well spent. How much value do you think Bitcoin provides for society? That's the question that will determine whether or not you believe Bitcoin has a legitimate claim on the resources that society has to offer. However, if we are going to have this discussion, it is important that we have a clear understanding of how Bitcoin truly uses energy. Understanding Bitcoin's energy usage may not resolve issues regarding the cryptocurrency's utility, but it might help put into perspective how big of an effect Bitcoin proponents are really talking about having on the environment. To be more specific, there are a few major misunderstandings that need to be cleared up. **Energy Consumption Is Not Equivalent to Carbon Emissions** To begin, it's vital to note that the amount of energy a system uses and the amount of carbon it releases are not the same. If you don't know the precise energy mix, which is the proportion of different energy sources that are used by the computers mining Bitcoin, you can't extrapolate the associated carbon emissions. This is because determining energy consumption is relatively straightforward. However, you can't extrapolate the associated carbon emissions. For instance, the environmental effect of one unit of energy generated by hydropower will be far lower than that of one unit of energy generated by coal. The amount of energy that Bitcoin uses may be roughly calculated as follows: You need just take a look at its hashrate (which refers to the entire aggregate processing power that is utilized to mine Bitcoin and process transactions), and then you can make some informed predictions as to the energy needs of the gear that miners are utilizing. However, it is significantly more difficult to determine how much carbon it emits. As a result of the cutthroat nature of the mining industry, its participants are notoriously secretive about the inner workings of their businesses. The CCAF has collaborated with large mining pools to compile an anonymised dataset of miner locations. These efforts have resulted in the best available estimates of the geolocation of energy output. From these estimates, an energy mix may be derived. On the basis of this statistics, the CCAF can make educated guesses on the energy sources miners were using on a national and, in some circumstances, a provincial level. However, their information does not contain all mining pools and is also not up to date. Because of this, we are still largely in the dark regarding Bitcoin's true energy mix. In addition, a large number of prominent studies make the mistake of generalizing the energy mix at the national level, which results in an erroneous portrayal of nations like China, which has an enormously diversified energy environment. Consequently, there is a broad range of estimates on the proportion of Bitcoin mining that employs renewable energy. According to one analysis published in December 2019, 73% of Bitcoin's total energy usage was carbon neutral. This was primarily attributable to the presence of hydro power in key mining centres such as Southwest China and Scandinavia. On the other side, according to an estimate provided by the CCAF in September 2020, the percentage is probably closer to 39. However, even if the lower amount is right, it is still roughly twice as much as the U.S. grid, suggesting that looking at energy usage alone is hardly a credible way to evaluate Bitcoin's contribution to carbon emissions. **Bitcoin Can Use Energy That Other Industries Can’t** Bitcoin Can Use Energy That Other Industries Can’t The fact that Bitcoin may be mined in any location is another important feature that sets Bitcoin's energy usage apart from that of the vast majority of other enterprises. Miners of Bitcoin can employ power sources that are unreachable for most other applications since this constraint does not apply to the cryptocurrency. Virtually all of the world's energy consumption must be generated within a reasonable distance of its final consumers. Hydro is the best-known example of this kind of resource. During the rainy season in Sichuan and Yunnan every year, tremendous amounts of hydropower that might have been used instead goes to waste. The production capacity in these locations much exceeds the need in the immediate area, and the state of battery technology is not nearly as advanced as it needs to be for it to be profitable to store and transmit energy from these rural regions to the metropolitan centers that are in need of it. As a result, it is not a surprise that these provinces are the heartlands of mining in China, accounting for roughly 10% of worldwide Bitcoin mining during the dry season and 50% of global Bitcoin mining during the rainy season. Natural gas that has been burned off is another potentially fruitful option for carbon-neutral mining. The modern method of oil extraction results in the emission of a sizeable quantity of natural gas as a waste product. This gas emits energy that is harmful to the environment but is never used to power anything. The vast majority of conventional applications have not been able to successfully exploit that energy for its full potential in the past since it is restricted to the location of distant oil mines. But Bitcoin miners all across the world, from North Dakota to Siberia, have jumped at the chance to capitalize on what would otherwise be a squandered resource. Some businesses are even looking at more ways to cut emissions by burning the gas in a more managed fashion. Naturally, this is still a minor player in today's Bitcoin mining arena; however, some rough calculations suggest that there is enough flared natural gas in the United States and Canada alone to run the entire Bitcoin network. This is despite the fact that this aspect of Bitcoin mining is still relatively new. To be true, monetizing surplus natural gas with Bitcoin still results in emissions. Furthermore, some people have suggested that the practice even functions as a subsidy to the fossil fuel sector by encouraging energy corporations to spend more in oil production than they otherwise could. However, the revenue from Bitcoin miners is negligible compared to the demand from other businesses that depend on fossil fuels, and this external need is not going away any time soon. Considering that oil is now being extracted and will continue to be done so for the foreseeable future, making use of a natural byproduct of the process and maybe even lessening the environmental effect of the process is a beneficial development overall. It's interesting to note that the business of aluminum smelting provides a startling similarity in this regard. Since producing usable aluminum from natural bauxite ore is a very energy-intensive process, and since the costs of shipping aluminum aren't always prohibitive, several countries with an abundance of energy have constructed smelters to make use of their extra resources. Countries like Iceland, Sichuan, and Yunnan, which have the ability to produce more energy than can be consumed locally, became net energy exporters through the production of aluminum. Today, the same conditions that encouraged those countries to invest in smelting have made those locations prime options for mining Bitcoin. There are also a few old aluminum smelters that have been converted into Bitcoin miners, such as the hydro Alcoa factory that is located in Massena, New York. These facilities are located in the United States. **Mining Bitcoin Consumes a lot More Energy Than Using It** One part of the equation is the method through which energy is generated. But there's another area where people often get things wrong, and that's when it comes to how Bitcoin really uses energy and how its energy needs are expected to vary over time. Although journalists and academics have a lot of discussion about Bitcoin's high "per-transaction energy cost," this statistic is not accurate. The process of mining Bitcoin accounts for the overwhelming bulk of the cryptocurrency's total energy usage. After coins have been distributed, the amount of energy necessary to validate transactions is very low. Since this is the case, it does not make sense to simply look at Bitcoin's total energy draw to date and divide it by the number of transactions; the majority of that energy was required to mine Bitcoins, not to enable transactions. And this brings us to the last significant misunderstanding, which is the idea that the energy costs connected with mining Bitcoin will continue to increase at an exponential rate. **Runaway Growth Is Unlikely** Since Bitcoin's energy footprint has expanded rapidly, some people have the misconception that it will someday take control of whole energy networks. This was the premise of a widely publicized research from 2018 that was recently highlighted in an article published by the New York Times. The study made the startling assertion that Bitcoin might cause a two-degree Celsius increase in global temperature. However, there are many reasons to assume this will not occur. To begin, Bitcoin's energy mix is becoming less dependent on carbon every year, which is a trend that is becoming more widespread across many different businesses. In the United States, publicly listed mining companies with an increased emphasis on environmental, social, and governance concerns have been gaining market share. Meanwhile, China has just outlawed coal-based mining in Inner Mongolia, which is one of the major remaining coal-heavy areas. At the same time, various groups within the mining sector have created projects like the Crypto Climate Accord to advocate for and commit to decreasing Bitcoin's carbon impact. The Paris Climate Agreement inspired these activities. Of course, Bitcoin might be a significant incentive for miners to develop various renewable technologies as they get more efficient and, as a result, more feasible for mining. This is because renewable solutions like as solar are examples. In addition, it is very improbable that miners will be able to grow their mining operations at the same rates for an endless period of time. The Bitcoin protocol subsidizes mining, but there are restrictions on the increase of those subsidies incorporated into the system. Miners are compensated today via a combination of tiny transaction fees for the transactions they verify while mining (which account for around 10% of miner income) and whatever profit margins they can get when they sell the bitcoins that they have mined. However, the protocol is designed to half the issuance-driven component of miner income every four years. This means that unless the price of Bitcoin doubles every four years in perpetuity (which, according to economics, is very impossible for any currency), that portion of miner revenue will ultimately decay to zero. And with regard to transaction fees, the expansion potential of this particular income stream is limited due to Bitcoin's fundamental restrictions on the amount of transactions it can execute (less than a million per day), as well as users' limited tolerance for paying fees. We may anticipate that some miners will continue to operate anyway, in return for these transaction fees alone — in fact, the network relies on it to remain running — but if profit margins fall, the financial incentive to invest in mining will, naturally, decline. This is because mining requires a lot of specialized equipment and a lot of electricity. There are, of course, an infinite amount of elements that have the potential to affect Bitcoin's effect on the environment; yet, underlying all of these aspects is a question that is far more difficult to answer with numbers: Is it prudent to invest in Bitcoin? It is essential to have a solid knowledge of the fact that many environmental worries are overblown, based on incorrect assumptions, or stem from a misunderstanding of how the Bitcoin protocol operates. This implies that when we question, "Is Bitcoin worth its effect on the environment?" the real negative impact that we're discussing is probably a lot less scary than you would think it would be. However, there is no getting around that Bitcoin, just like practically anything else that contributes value to our society, uses up resources. It is up to the cryptocurrency community, just as it is for every other enterprise that relies on the consumption of energy, to recognize and address these environmental issues, to strive in good faith to lower Bitcoin's carbon footprint, and eventually to show that the social value that Bitcoin delivers is worth the resources that are required to maintain it. **That's all for today, see ya tomorrow** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews](https://twitter.com/croxroadnews)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** *DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.*

@ fac513a1:d4f407a5

Think of a kids playground. Children running everywhere. Mayhem. The laughs. The screams. The squabbles. A local favourite of ours at the moment, has a small sandpit area, that my girls enjoy digging around in. I’ve never thought to bring their beach toys. Annoyingly! I mean, who doesn’t like to build a sandcastle with a proper bucket and spade…!?! So I improvise, grab some paper takeaway coffee cups, and explain how they can use them to build with instead. Off they go… They love it. For a while. Before, oops, something else has caught their attention. The slide, trampoline, or see-saw, is now the centre of their world. Any parent out there will know this well. What I want to highlight though is a process I witness each time. Firstly, there is a feature in the centre of the sandpit, that all the kids gravitate towards. They will dig trenches around it, put sand on top, and it becomes a castle, garden, or monument. It is the critical piece of real estate in the sand pit. Control this, and you’re on top. Secondly, there was a time when a boy was with some well organised grandparents, who had thought to bring all his beach toys. Trucks, diggers, spades, buckets, and a heap of shells etc. Kids flocked to them. For the boy, this was a disaster, as sharing all his goodies was not part of his plan. As you can imagine, there are fights over the centre feature, and there was a fracas for the toys. Which brings me to the point of today’s story. What is this, if it’s not a rehearsal for the age old human instinct, to control land and technology? A petri-dish for future discussions over who owns what. “That’s mine!” Can just as easily be the true owner of a toy or a child simply wanting to play with it. Instinctively we want things. So how do we control this urge as adults? Often we don’t. We fight. But as I’ve been reading lately in Hernando De Soto’s excellent book “The Mystery Of Capital”, one excellent solution to this has been the development of property rights, which enable the growth of capital. I highly recommend having a read. One story resonated strongly, in relation to how settlers in the USA organised themselves, as they spread west through the continent. Men would settle on land as squatters. They would build, farm, and develop it. Luckily for them the English property law prominent at the time didn’t follow across the Atlantic, which diss-allowed squatting, but rather they innovated, and it became common practice that squatters could legalise their ownership over time. Precedent was set. The incentive structure was clear. Add value, care for the land, and the law will catch up to reflect your capital creation eventually. Interestingly, settlers would identify the boarders of their newfound territory with signals as simple as axe cuts in tree’s. Imagine that! Primitive. But effective. De Soto also highlights brilliantly how a countries inability to build an effective property rights system hamstrings its growth. For some citizens of the word today, it’s either too expensive, or takes literally years, to try and legitimise their property rights. This forces them into what he describes as the ‘extralegal’ economy. A place where people go to do business, in order to best go about their hustle, but without the ability to generate capital long-term. It’s not that they’re criminals. Quite the contrary in many cases The issue is simple, the systems they operate in just don’t provide what they need, so they come up with innovate solutions of their own. But these agreements are hyper-local in most cases. Each neighbourhood knows how it works. But, unlike the USA, these places never had an effective centralised institution willing and able to document, manage, and maintain property rights. This is the missing piece to true capital development. As a Brit living in Australia, I am very accustomed to utilising a house as collateral for a loan for example. In many places that is simply not possible. What really got me thinking though, was his detailed plans on how to help developing and ex-communnist countries put in place effective property rights. They’re long. Really long. And with each step one can’t help but feel his ideas become less and less viable. “I wonder if he has ever studied Bitcoin?” I thought to myself. My bet: he hasn’t. Indeed, it’s my belief that Bitcoin represents the highest form of property rights mankind has ever had access to. If you have the key, you own the wealth. If you don’t have the key, you don’t own the wealth. Super simple. Chuck into the mix Bitcoin is easily divisible, can be taken anywhere, cannot be debased, and is easy to exchange, you start to see its extremely attractive characteristics as a store-of-value with capital growth potential. Consider all those extralegal economic actors globally. Millions and millions of them. All in need of a way to generate capital long-term. Well instead of requiring a centralised government, which has clearly failed them to date, to dramatically figure out a way to evolve into the USA, now they can utilise an open network, digitally native, open 24/7, 365… Quite a moment in history in my view. Everyone, anywhere in the world, how have access to equal property rights. With De Soto’s lens, now they can truly nurture capital. Said another way, squabbles in the sand pit, no longer carry the same weight as they once did… Best, Jake Ps - even as someone that was highly trained in how to “make money”, it’s only recently that I asked the question “what is money?” This seemingly innocuous ask, has helped me to see the difference between an investment, and simply saving, which is a definition the average person has been de-sensitised from. Part of this exploration means one really starts to dig into the word “capital”. What I have found is quite the opposite to the champagne socialist wisdom of today that “capitalism is the cause of all our problems”. True capital management is the key to our future, based in property rights fit for the digital renaissance, with the potential to help more people live a happy life than any social phenomenon before it.

@ 1c9dcd8f:1852f704

And it was not long after Lugh had got the fine from the sons of Tuireann that the Fomor came and landed at Scetne. The whole host of the Fomor were come this time, and their king, Balor, of the Strong Blows and of the Evil Eye, along with them; and Bres, and Indech, son of De Domnann, a king of the Fomor, and Elathan, son of Lobos, and Goll and Ingol, and Octriallach, son of Indech, and Elathan, son of Delbaeth.  > Depiction of the Fomorians Then Lugh sent the Dagda to spy out the Fomor, and to delay them till such time as the men of Ireland would come to the battle. So the Dagda went to their camp, and he asked them for a delay, and they said he might have that. And then to make sport of him, the Fomor made broth for him, for he had a great love for broth. So they filled the king's cauldron with four times twenty gallons of new milk, and the same of meal and fat, and they put in goats and sheep and pigs along with that, and boiled all together, and then they poured it all out into a great hole in the ground. And they called him to it then, and told him he should eat his fill, the way the Fomor would not be reproached for want of hospitality the way Bres was. "We will make an end of you if you leave any part of it after you," said Indech, son of De Domnann. So the Dagda took the ladle, and it big enough for a man and a woman to lie in the bowl of it, and he took out bits with it, the half of a salted pig, and a quarter of lard a bit would be. "If the broth tastes as well as the bits taste, this is good food," he said. And he went on putting the full of the ladle into his mouth till the hole was empty; and when all was gone he put down his hand and scraped up all that was left among the earth and the gravel.  > The Dagda Sleep came on him then after eating the broth, and the Fomor were laughing at him, for his belly was the size of the cauldron of a great house. But he rose up after a while, and, heavy as he was, he made his way home; and indeed his dress was no way sightly, a cape to the hollow of the elbows, and a brown coat, long in the breast and short behind, and on his feet brogues of horse hide, with the hair outside, and in his hand a wheeled fork it would take eight men to carry, so that the track he left after him was deep enough for the boundary ditch of a province. And on his way he saw the Battle-Crow, the Morrigu, washing herself in the river Unius of Connacht, and one of her two feet at Ullad Echne, to the south of the water, and the other at Loscuinn, to the north of the water, and her hair hanging in nine loosened locks. And she said to the Dagda, that she would bring the heart's blood of Indech, son of De Domnann, that had threatened him, to the men of Ireland.  >The Morrigu And while he was away Lugh had called together the Druids, and smiths, and physicians, and law-makers, and chariot-drivers of Ireland, to make plans for the battle. And he asked the great magician Mathgen what could he do to help them. "It is what I can do," said Mathgen, "through my power I can throw down all the mountains of Ireland on the Fomor, until their tops will be rolling on the ground. And the twelve chief mountains of Ireland will bring you their help," he said, "and will fight for you: Slieve Leag and Denda Ulad, and Bennai Boirche and Bri Ruri, and Slieve Bladma and Slieve Snechtae, and Slieve Mis and Blai-Slieve, and Nemthann and Slieve Macca Belgodon, and Segois and Cruachan Aigle." Then he asked the cup-bearers what help they could give. "We will put a strong thirst on the Fomor," they said, "and then we will bring the twelve chief lochs of Ireland before them, and however great their thirst may be, they will find no water in them: Derc-Loch, Loch Luimnech, Loch Orbsen, Loch Righ, Loch Mescdhae, Loch Cuan, Loch Laeig, Loch Echach, Loch Febail, Loch Decket, Loch Riach, Mor-Loch. And we will go," they said, "to the twelve chief rivers of Ireland: the Buas, the Boinn, the Banna, the Nem, the Laoi, the Sionnan, the Muaid, the Sligech, the Samair, the Fionn, the Ruirtech, the Siuir; and they will all be hidden away from the Fomor the way they will not find a drop in them. But as for the men of Ireland," they said, "there will be drink for them if they were to be in the battle to the end of seven years." And Figol, son of Mamos, the Druid, was asked then what he would do, and he said: "It is what I will do, I will cause three showers of fire to pour on the faces of the army of the Fomor, and I will take from them two-thirds of their bravery and their strength, and I will put sickness on their bodies, and on the bodies of their horses. But as to the men of Ireland," he said, "every breath they breathe will be an increase of strength and of bravery to them; and if they are seven years in the battle they will never be any way tired."  Then Lugh asked his two witches, Bechulle and Dianan: "What power can you bring to the battle?" "It is easy to say that," they said. "We will put enchantment on the trees and the stones and the sods of the earth, till they become an armed host against the Fomor, and put terror on them and put them to the rout." Then Lugh asked Carpre, the poet, son of Etain, what could he do. "It is not hard to say that," said Carpre. "I will make a satire on them at sunrise, and the wind from the north, and I on a hill-top and my back to a thorn-tree, and a stone and a thorn in my hand. And with that satire," he said, "I will put shame on them and enchantment, the way they will not be able to stand against fighting men." Then he asked Goibniu the Smith what would he be able to do. "I will do this," he said. "If the men of Ireland stop in the battle to the end of seven years, for every sword that is broken and for every spear that is lost from its shaft, I will put a new one in its place. And no spear-point that will be made by my hand," he said, "will ever miss its mark; and no man it touches will ever taste life again. And that is more than Dolb, the smith of the Fomor, can do," he said. "And you, Credne," Lugh said then to his worker in brass, "what help can you give to our men in the battle?" "It is not hard to tell that," said Credne, "rivets for their spears and hilts for their swords and bosses and rims for their shields, I will supply them all." "And you, Luchta," he said then to his carpenter, "what will you do?" "I will give them all they want of shields and of spear shafts," said Luchta. Then he asked Diancecht, the physician, what would he do, and it is what he said: "Every man that will be wounded there, unless his head is struck off, or his brain or his marrow cut through, I will make him whole and sound again for the battle of the morrow." Then the Dagda said: "Those great things you are boasting you will do, I will do them all with only myself." "It is you are the good god!" said they, and they all gave a great shout of laughter. Then Lugh spoke to the whole army and put strength in them, so that each one had the spirit in him of a king or a great lord. Then when the delay was at an end, the Fomor and the men of Ireland came on towards one another till they came to the plain of Magh Tuireadh. That now was not the same Magh Tuireadh where the first battle was fought, but it was to the north, near Ess Dara. And then the two armies threatened one another. "The men of Ireland are daring enough to offer battle to us," said Bres to Indech, son of De Domnann. "I give my word," said Indech, "it is in small pieces their bones will be, if they do not give in to us and pay their tribute." Now the Men of Dea had determined not to let Lugh go into the battle, because of the loss his death would be to them; and they left nine of their men keeping a watch on him. And on the first day none of the kings or princes went into the battle, but only the common fighting men, and they fierce and proud enough.  >For it was better for them, he said, to die protecting their own country than to live under bonds and under tribute any longer. And the battle went on like that from day to day with no great advantage to one or the other side. But there was wonder on the Fomor on account of one thing. Such of their own weapons as were broken or blunted in the fight lay there as they were, and such of their own men as were killed showed no sign of life on the morrow; but it was not so with the Tuatha de Danaan, for if their men were killed or their weapons were broken to-day, they were as good as before on the morrow. And this is the way that happened. The well of Slaine lay to the west of Magh Tuireadh to the east of Loch Arboch. And Diancecht and his son Octruil and his daughter Airmed used to be singing spells over the well and to be putting herbs in it; and the men that were wounded to death in the battle would be brought to the well and put into it as dead men, and they would come out of it whole and sound, through the power of the spells. And not only were they healed, but there was such fire put into them that they would be quicker in the fight than they were before.  >Diancects Well And as to the arms, it is the way they were made new every day. Goibniu the Smith used to be in the forge making swords and spears, and he would make a spear-head by three turns, and then Luchta the Carpenter would make the shaft by three cuts, and the third cut was a finish, and would set it in the ring of the spear. And when the spear-heads were stuck in the side of the forge, he would throw the shaft and the rings the way they would go into the spear-head and want no more setting. And then Credne the Brazier would make the rivets by three turns and would cast the rings of the spears to them, and with that they were ready and were set together.  >Goibniu And all this went against the Fomor, and they sent one of their young men to spy about the camp and to see could he find out how these things were done. It was Ruadan, son of Bres and of Brigit daughter of the Dagda they sent, for he was a son and grandson of the Tuatha de Danaan. So he went and saw all that was done, and came back to the Fomor. And when they heard his story it is what they thought, that Goibniu the Smith was the man that hindered them most. And they sent Ruadan back again, and bade him make an end of him. So he went back again to the forge, and he asked Goibniu would he give him a spear-head. And then he asked rivets of Credne, and a shaft of the carpenter, and all was given to him as he asked. And there was a woman there, Cron, mother to Fianlug, grinding the spears. And after the spear being given to Ruadan, he turned and threw it at Goibniu, that it wounded him. But Goibniu pulled it out and made a cast of it at Ruadan, that it went through him and he died; and Bres, his father, and the army of the Fomor, saw him die. And then Brigit came and keened her son with shrieking and with crying. And as to Goibniu, he went into the well and was healed. But after that Octriallach, son of Indech, called to the Fomor and bade each man of them bring a stone of the stones of Drinnes and throw them into the well of Slane. And they did that till the well was dried up, and a cairn raised over it, that is called Octriallach's Cairn. And it was while Goibniu was making spear-heads for the battle of Magh Tuireadh, a charge was brought against his wife. And it was seen that it was heavy news to him, and that jealousy came on him. And it is what he did, there was a spear-shaft in his hand when he heard the story, Nes its name was; and he sang spells over the spear-shaft, and any one that was struck with that spear afterwards, it would burn him up like fire. And at last the day of the great battle came, and the Fomor came out of their camp and stood in strong ranks. And there was not a leader or a fighting man of them was without good armour to his skin, and a helmet on his head, a broad spear in his right hand, a heavy sword in his belt, a strong shield on his shoulder. And to attack the army of the Fomor that day was to strike the head against a rock, or to go up fighting against a fire. And the Men of Dea rose up and left Lugh and his nine comrades keeping him, and they went on to the battle; and Midhir was with them, and Bodb Dearg and Diancecht. And Badb and Macha and the Morrigu called out that they would go along with them. And it was a hard battle was fought, and for a while it was going against the Tuatha de Danaan; and Nuada of the Silver Hand, their King, and Macha, daughter of Emmass, fell by Balor, King of the Fomor. And Cass-mail fell by Octriallach, and the Dagda got a dreadful wound from a casting spear that was thrown by Ceithlenn, wife of Balor.  >Battle of Magh Tuireadh But when the battle was going on, Lugh broke away from those that were keeping him, and rushed out to the front of the Men of Dea. And then there was a fierce battle fought, and Lugh was heartening the men of Ireland to fight well, the way they would not be in bonds any longer. For it was better for them, he said, to die protecting their own country than to live under bonds and under tribute any longer. And he sang a song of courage to them, and the hosts gave a great shout as they went into battle, and then they met together, and each of them began to attack the other.  >Lugh rousing the men of Ireland to fight with all their spirit. And there was great slaughter, and laying low in graves, and many comely men fell there in the stall of death. Pride and shame were there side by side, and hardness and red anger, and there was red blood on the white skin of young fighting men. And the dashing of spear against shield, and sword against sword, and the shouting of the fighters, and the whistling of casting spears and the rattling of scabbards was like harsh thunder through the battle. And many slipped in the blood that was under their feet, and they fell, striking their heads one against another; and the river carried away bodies of friends and enemies together.  >Lugh and Balor , king of the Fomor , Lugh's own Grandfather, meet in battle. Then Lugh and Balor met in the battle, and Lugh called out reproaches to him; and there was anger on Balor, and he said to the men that were with him: "Lift up my eyelid till I see this chatterer that is talking to me." Then they raised Balor's eyelid, but Lugh made a cast of his red spear at him, that brought the eye out through the back of his head, so that it was towards his own army it fell, and three times nine of the Fomor died when they looked at it. And if Lugh had not put out that eye when he did, the whole of Ireland would have been burned in one flash. And after this, Lugh struck his head off.  >Lugh made a cast of his red spear at him, that brought the eye out through the back of his head And as for Indech, son of De Domnann, he fell and was crushed in the battle, and blood burst from his mouth, and he called out for Leat Glas, his poet, as he lay there, but he was not able to help him. And then the Morrigu came into the battle, and she was heartening the Tuatha de Danaan to fight the battle well; and, as she had promised the Dagda, she took the full of her two hands of Indech's blood, and gave it to the armies that were waiting at the ford of Unius; and it was called the Ford of Destruction from that day.  >The Morrigu takes the blood of Indech to embolden the armies at the ford of Unius . And after that it was not a battle any more, but a rout, and the Fomor were beaten back to the sea. And Lugh and his comrades were following them, and they came up with Bres, son of Elathan, and no guard with him, and he said: "It is better for you to spare my life than to kill me. And if you spare me now," he said, "the cows of Ireland will never go dry." "I will ask an advice about that from our wise men," said Lugh. So he told Maeltine Mor-Brethach, of the Great Judgments, what Bres was after saying. But Maeltine said: "Do not spare him for that, for he has no power over their offspring, though he has power so long as they are living." Then Bres said: "If you spare me, the men of Ireland will reap a harvest of corn every quarter." But Maeltine said: "The spring is for ploughing and sowing, and the beginning of summer for the strength of corn, and the beginning of autumn for its ripeness, and the winter for using it." "That does not save you," said Lugh then to Bres. But then to make an excuse for sparing him, Lugh said: "Tell us what is the best way for the men of Ireland to plough and to sow and to reap." "Let their ploughing be on a Tuesday, and their casting seed into the field on a Tuesday, and their reaping on a Tuesday," said Bres. So Lugh said that would do, and he let him go free after that. It was in this battle Ogma found Orna, the sword of Tethra, a king of the Fomor, and he took it from its sheath and cleaned it. And when the sword was taken out of the sheath, it told all the deeds that had been done by it, for there used to be that power in swords. And Lugh and the Dagda and Ogma followed after the Fomor, for they had brought away the Dagda's harp with them, that was called Uaitne. And they came to a feasting-house, and in it they found Bres and his father Elathan, and there was the harp hanging on the wall. And it was in that harp the Dagda had bound the music, so that it would not sound till he would call to it. And sometimes it was called Dur-da-Bla, the Oak of Two Blossoms, and sometimes Coir-cethar-chuin, the Four-Angled Music. And when he saw it hanging on the wall it is what he said: "Come summer, come winter, from the mouth of harps and bags and pipes." Then the harp sprang from the wall, and came to the Dagda, and it killed nine men on its way. And then he played for them the three things harpers understand, the sleepy tune, and the laughing tune, and the crying tune. And when he played the crying tune, their tearful women cried, and then he played the laughing tune, till their women and children laughed; and then he played the sleepy tune, and all the hosts fell asleep. And through that sleep the three went away through the Fomor that would have been glad to harm them. And when all was over, the Dagda brought out the heifer he had got as wages from Bres at the time he was making his dun. And she called to her calf, and at the sound of her call all the cattle of Ireland the Fomor had brought away as tribute, were back in their fields again. And Cé, the Druid of Nuada of the Silver Hand, was wounded in the battle, and he went southward till he came to Carn Corrslebe. And there he sat down to rest, tired with his wounds and with the fear that was on him, and the journey. And he saw a smooth plain before him, and it full of flowers, and a great desire came on him to reach to that plain, and he went on till he came to it, and there he died. And when his grave was made there, a lake burst out over it and over the whole plain, and it was given the name of Loch Cé. And there were but four men of the Fomor left in Ireland after the battle, and they used to be going through the country, spoiling corn and milk and fruit, and whatever came from the sea, till they were driven out one Samhain night by the Morrigu and by Angus Og, that the Fomor might never be over Ireland again.  And after the battle was won, and the bodies were cleared away, the Morrigu gave out the news of the great victory to the hosts and to the royal heights of Ireland and to its chief rivers and its invers, and it is what she said: "Peace up to the skies, the skies down to earth, the earth under the skies; strength to every one." And as to the number of men that fell in the battle, it will not be known till we number the stars of the sky, or flakes of snow, or the dew on the grass, or grass under the feet of cattle, or the horses of the Son of Lir in a stormy sea. And Lugh was made king over the Men of Dea then, and it was at Nas he had his court. And while he was king, his foster-mother Taillte, daughter of Magh Mor, the Great Plain, died. And before her death she bade her husband Duach the Dark, he that built the Fort of the Hostages in Teamhair, to clear away the wood of Cuan, the way there could be a gathering of the people around her grave. So he called to the men of Ireland to cut down the wood with their wide-bladed knives and bill-hooks and hatchets, and within a month the whole wood was cut down. And Lugh buried her in the plain of Midhe, and raised a mound over her, that is to be seen to this day. And he ordered fires to be kindled, and keening to be made, and games and sports to be held in the summer of every year out of respect to her. And the place they were held got its name from her, that is Taillten. And as to Lugh's own mother, that was tall beautiful Ethlinn, she came to Teamhair after the battle of Magh Tuireadh, and he gave her in marriage to Tadg, son of Nuada. And the children that were born to them were Muirne, mother of Finn, the Head of the Fianna of Ireland, and Tuiren, that was mother of Bran.

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 Feels wrong to post this in Christianity, but I mean given the obvious implication.....I'm honestly not sure where else to post it? Pretty obvious isn't it?