@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2

Trumps Antrittsrede, seine Präsidentenerlasse, Personalentscheidungen und Amtshandlungen hatten schon in kurzer Zeit die Konturen der künftigen US-Außenpolitik erkennen lassen. Aber in München sprach der Vizepräsident auf einer bedeutenden Konferenz direkt zu den Europäern, den “Partnern” und “Verbündeten”. Und was er ihnen in aller Deutlichkeit mitteilte, war nichts anderes als eine 180-Grad Kehrtwende zur Politik der Vorgänger-Regierung. Die Botschaft war kein Vorschlag, sondern eine Ansage, die Inhalte sind inzwischen hinlänglich bekannt. Obwohl die Rede erwartungsgemäß mehr als reichlich kommentiert wurde, möchte ich noch einige Aspekte ergänzen, die ich bisher in den Kommentaren vermisst habe.  Im November 1988 wurde die Auslieferung der sowjetischen Zeitschrift “Sputnik” in der DDR gestoppt, was einem Verbot gleichkam. Der Anlaß waren kritische Betrachtungen über Stalin und Berichte über den Hitler-Stalin-Pakt, den es laut DDR-Geschichtsschreibung nicht gab. Es war eine Zensur von Informationen aus dem Land des “großen Bruders”, der Führungsmacht der sozialistischen Welt. Das Diktum “von der Sowjetunion lernen heißt siegen lernen” galt erkennbar nicht mehr. Das war zugleich der Höhepunkt einer ideologischen Entfremdung die 1986 begonnen hatte, als Gorbatschow “Glasnost” (Offenheit) und “Perestroika” (Reformen) einforderte, welche von der vergreisten DDR-Führung als unnötig und gefährlich abgelehnt wurden. Gorbatschow hatte richtig erkannt, dass die sozialistischen Staaten ökonomisch und gesellschaftlich gescheitert waren und ohne Reformen nicht überleben würden. Die Einsicht kam aber zu spät, die DDR kollabierte bereits ein Jahr später an ihrem Reformstau, die UdSSR Ende 1991 trotz der begonnenen Reformversuche.   Die Parallelen sind unverkennbar, eklatante politische Fehler (u.a. Euro seit 2009 und Migration seit 2015) haben die EU-Staaten zunächst zu Sanierungsfällen gemacht, durch die Corona-Politik zu Insolvenzkandidaten. Der Rubikon ist längst überschritten, die Schönwetter-Union ist nicht mehr zu retten. Den Amerikanern ist das klar, daher sind die Reform-Appelle von Vance wohl eher seiner Höflichkeit zuzurechnen. Für die US-Regierung ist die EU bereits jetzt nicht mehr existent, Verträge werden wieder direkt mit den Mitglieds-Staaten getroffen, und in den Ukraine-Verhandlungen ist kein Platz am Verhandlungstisch. Die Themenbereiche bei den Gesprächen in Riad haben aber auch gezeigt, dass Amerikaner und Russen in global-strategischen Dimensionen denken, die Ukraine ist zurecht nur ein Randthema. Die aktuelle Rhetorik europäischer Politiker hingegen ist niveaulos und kleinkariert, man spielt in der 2. Liga, die EU hat sich selbst vom Akteur zum Objekt degradiert.  Was bedeutet das für unsere Zukunft? Und was ist von der neuen US-Führung zu erwarten? Die unsäglichen Diskussionen darüber ob nun Trump und Musk gut oder böse sind, vernebelt nur eine klare Tatsache. Die EU hat keinen Rückhalt mehr vom “großen Bruder”, weder durch die NATO in Sachen Ukraine, noch durch Zensur von Systemkritikern (USAID, BigTech). Letzteres führt zu drei fundamentalen Veränderungen.\ \ 1\. Das Narrativ von den “westlichen Werten” ist tot. Auf diesem Axiom der USA basierte die gesamte Propaganda-Maschine, es wurde zur Religion. Nun versuchen gerade Provinzpolitiker wie Pistorius und Habeck mit beschränkten rhetorischen Mitteln zu definieren was “westliche Werte” ohne die USA sind, was mehr für Begeisterung bei Satirikern beiträgt als zur Überzeugung von Tagesschau-Anhängern.\ \ 2\. Die Deutungshoheit geht verloren weil immer mehr Publizisten ihr Fähnchen in den sich drehenden Wind hängen, sofern sie noch von Leser-Abos und Werbekunden abhängig sind. Die einsetzende Kakophonie verwirrt die Masse der schlichten Medien-Konsumenten, die über Jahrzehnte auf Nachrichten-Konformität dressiert worden sind. \ \ 3\. Weniger Zensur in den sozialen Medien verschafft den kritischen Stimmen mehr Reichweite, “bedrohliche” Meinungsvielfalt entsteht. Leider können die meisten Kritiker aber nur kritisieren, was uns zurück in die Zeiten des Sputnik-Verbots führt.  Die DDR-Opposition hat beim Abriss der DDR mitgewirkt, über diese Rolle ist sie aber nie hinaus gekommen. Als die Mauer gefallen war und es um die Neugestaltung ging, hat sie kläglich versagt. Dem Großteil der heutigen Opposition droht das selbe Schicksal, weil sie keinen Plan für die Stunde Null hat. Bei Tauwetter darf man nicht mehr über den Winter diskutieren, sondern über das Bestellen der Felder. Wer die Saat ausbringt, entscheidet über die Ernte. Den Kollaps betreffend ist nur noch der Zeitpunkt unklar, für den Zeitraum danach jedoch alles. Wenn wir uns eine Bürgergesellschaft wünschen, dann müssen wir jetzt als Bürger aktiv werden, also DU, Leser. Spende für Pareto, oder für kritische Autoren und Aktivisten. Mach Dir Gedanken über die Zukunft und publiziere sie, hier auf Pareto, wir fördern den Bürger-Journalismus. Schließe Dich einem Projekt an, leiste einen Beitrag und gestalte die Zukunft. Macht wird nicht verteilt, Macht muss man sich erkämpfen.\ \ **“Nur der verdient sich Freiheit wie das Leben, der täglich sie erobern muß.”** Goethe, Faust Teil 2 **Spenden für Pareto:** <https://geyser.fund/project/pareto> **Pareto Landing Page:** <https://pareto.space>&#x20; **Pareto Marktplatz:** <https://pareto.space/read>&#x20;

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has always been known for its volatility. This digital asset has seen dramatic fluctuations in price, attracting investors and speculators alike. Understanding these price movements is crucial for anyone involved in the crypto market. The journey of Bitcoin from a niche digital token to a mainstream financial asset has been marked by periods of rapid growth and sudden declines. This volatility is not just a source of risk, but also of potential opportunity for traders and investors. The factors driving these fluctuations range from regulatory news, technological advancements, to broader economic factors. Bitcoin's decentralized nature adds to its unpredictability, as it operates independently of a central bank or government. **Table of Contents** - The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt - Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis - The Role of Short-Term Holders - Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed ( … - The Dynamics of Profit-Taking - Actions by Miners and Whales - Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook - Conclusion - FAQs **The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt** In a recent surge, Bitcoin's value soared past the $44,000 mark, only to encounter a significant resistance level near $45,000. This resistance led to a notable decline in its price. The question on everyone's mind is: what caused this sudden halt in Bitcoin's otherwise steady climb? This rally, like many in Bitcoin's past, was driven by a mix of investor optimism, favorable market conditions, and increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrency. However, the resistance at $45,000 proved to be a turning point, sparking a wave of sell-offs and profit-taking. This price behavior is a classic example of the market's psychological dynamics, where key resistance levels can lead to significant shifts in investor behavior. The rapid change from a bullish to a bearish market sentiment at this juncture underscores the fragile and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market. **Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis** CryptoQuant, a renowned market analytics platform, offers valuable insights into this phenomenon. An analyst from CryptoQuant, Yonsei, conducted a detailed analysis of on-chain data to unravel the mystery behind Bitcoin's recent price behavior. This analysis goes beyond surface-level market trends, delving into the intricate movements of Bitcoin across various wallets and exchanges. By examining metrics such as fund flows, wallet activities, and transaction patterns, CryptoQuant provides a more nuanced understanding of what drives Bitcoin's price changes. Yonsei's analysis, in particular, sheds light on the behavior of different investor cohorts, revealing how their actions collectively impact the market. This kind of deep-dive analysis is essential for anyone looking to understand the often opaque mechanisms of cryptocurrency markets. **The Role of Short-Term Holders** The analysis revealed that short-term holders, particularly those who had invested in Bitcoin for a period ranging from 6 to 18 months, started to realize their profits as soon as Bitcoin broke through the $40,000 resistance level. This profit-taking was a primary factor in the subsequent price retraction. These short-term holders, often more sensitive to market fluctuations, tend to react quickly to price changes, looking to capitalize on short-term gains. Their collective actions can create significant market movements, as seen in this instance. The behavior of these investors is often influenced by news events, market sentiment, and technical indicators. In this case, the rapid rise in Bitcoin's price likely triggered a psychological response to lock in profits, leading to a cascade of sell orders. Understanding the motivations and behaviors of these short-term holders is crucial for predicting short-term market movements in the volatile world of cryptocurrency. **Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)** A critical metric in this analysis is the Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This metric assesses the movement of long-held Bitcoins, providing insights into the behavior of long-term investors. An increase in Binary CDD indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, has been mobilized, suggesting a sell-off by long-term holders. This metric is particularly important as it highlights the actions of the most steadfast part of the market - those who have held Bitcoin through various cycles. When these long-term holders start moving their coins, it often signals a significant shift in market sentiment. The CDD metric thus serves as a barometer for the conviction of Bitcoin's long-term investor base. A high CDD can indicate a loss of confidence among these investors, or a belief that the market has reached a peak. Conversely, a low CDD suggests that long-term holders are not yet ready to sell, indicating continued confidence in the market's future. **The Dynamics of Profit-Taking** The CryptoQuant analysis further highlighted that a majority of Bitcoin holders were in profit, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio remaining above one. This indicated that about 90% of Bitcoin holders were profiting, which naturally led to a trend of profit-taking. This phenomenon is a key aspect of market cycles in cryptocurrencies. When a large portion of investors are in profit, especially after a significant price rally, the market often sees a wave of selling as investors look to cash in on their gains. This behavior is compounded by psychological factors, such as fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), which can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment. Additionally, the profit-taking trend is influenced by external factors such as global economic conditions, regulatory news, and technological developments within the blockchain space. These factors can either reinforce the confidence of investors, leading to a hold strategy, or trigger a sell-off in anticipation of a market downturn. **Actions by Miners and Whales** Another interesting aspect of the analysis was the behavior of Bitcoin miners and whales (large-scale holders). These groups also contributed to the selling pressure. Miners, in particular, sold their assets at high-profit margins when Bitcoin reached its peak, adding to the downward pressure on its price. The actions of miners are crucial to understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics, as they are not only investors but also the producers of new Bitcoins. Their decision to sell or hold can significantly impact the supply of Bitcoin in the market. Whales, or large-scale holders, have a similar impact due to the sheer volume of their transactions. Their trades can lead to substantial market movements, creating waves that affect smaller investors. The behavior of these whales often reflects a more strategic approach to the market, influenced by long-term trends and broader market analysis. Their actions can serve as indicators for future market movements, making their behavior a key focus for analysts and investors alike. **Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook** Despite the recent price drop, the overall market sentiment remains positive. The bear market seems to be in the past, and liquidity conditions in the crypto market are improving. However, Bitcoin currently hovers around the $41,000 mark, a slight decrease from its recent high. This current state reflects the ever-changing nature of the cryptocurrency market, where investor sentiment can shift rapidly. The future outlook for Bitcoin remains a topic of much debate among experts. Some predict continued growth as institutional adoption increases and blockchain technology becomes more integrated into mainstream finance. Others caution about potential regulatory clampdowns and the volatile nature of the market. What remains clear is that Bitcoin continues to be a key player in the financial world, with its price movements being a barometer for the health and sentiment of the broader cryptocurrency market. **Conclusion** Bitcoin's market behavior, as analyzed by CryptoQuant, offers a complex picture of various factors at play. The interplay between short-term and long-term holders, the strategic moves of miners and whales, and the overall market sentiment all contribute to the price dynamics of this digital currency. Understanding these elements is key for investors and enthusiasts who wish to navigate the volatile waters of Bitcoin's market. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, keeping a close eye on these trends and analyses will be crucial for making informed decisions in the world of cryptocurrency. The insights provided by platforms like CryptoQuant are invaluable in this regard, offering a deeper understanding of the market forces at work. **FAQs** **What caused the recent halt in Bitcoin's price rally?** The halt in Bitcoin's price rally, after reaching near $45,000, was primarily due to profit-taking by short-term holders and investors who had held Bitcoin for 6-18 months, as revealed by CryptoQuant's analysis. **What is Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)?** Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is a metric that measures the movement of long-held Bitcoins. It indicates the amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, that has been mobilized or sold. **How do miners and whales influence Bitcoin's price?** Miners and whales (large-scale holders) significantly influence Bitcoin's price through their actions. When they sell their holdings, especially during peak prices, they add to the market's selling pressure, potentially leading to price drops. **What does a high Bitcoin Binary CDD indicate?** A high Bitcoin Binary CDD suggests that a large amount of long-held Bitcoin is being sold, which can be a sign of long-term holders losing confidence or deciding to take profits. **Is the current market sentiment for Bitcoin positive or negative?** Despite recent price fluctuations, the overall market sentiment for Bitcoin remains cautiously positive, with improvements in market liquidity and interest from institutional investors. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ 6734e11d:c7e34e8f

...damit wir weiter recht haben und so weitermachen können wie bisher, die verordnete Omertà eingehalten wird zu Grundrechten, Notverordnungen, Pandemiesimulationen, Energieversorgung, Deindustrialisierung, kalte und echte Enteigung, Umverteilung, Freiluft- und Digitalgefängnis, Blockwartnachbarn... Alles andere wäre äußerst unangenehm, wie das Aufplatzen einer großen Eiterblase und müsste dann wieder mit Exekutive, Justiz, Notverordnungen, neuen Strafrechtsparagraphen, Verschärfung der Strafprozessordnung, echte Änderung des Grundgesetzes, Überwachung, Totalzensur, Parteiverboten, Regimechanges und Krieg unterbunden werden. Idee und Meme sind wieder von der Schwurbel Oase <https://t.me/schwurbel_oase/2318>

@ 46fcbe30:6bd8ce4d

[This post by Eric Weiss](https://x.com/Eric_BIGfund/status/1893001303845937246) inspired me to try it out. After all, I have plaid around with [ppq.ai - pay per query](https://ppq.ai) before. Using this script: ```bash #!/bin/bash models=(gpt-4o grok-2 qwq-32b-preview deepseek-r1 gemini-2.0-flash-exp dolphin-mixtral-8x22b claude-3.5-sonnet deepseek-chat llama-3.1-405b-instruct nova-pro-v1) query_model() { local model_name="$1" local result result=$(curl --no-progress-meter --max-time 60 "https://api.ppq.ai/chat/completions" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $ppqKey" \ -d '{"model": "'"$model_name"'","messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Choose one asset to own over the next 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. Reply only with a comma separated list of assets."}]}') if jq -e '.choices[0].message.content' <<< "$result" > /dev/null 2>&1; then local content=$(jq -r '.choices[0].message.content' <<< "$result") local model=$(jq -r '.model' <<< "$result") if [ -z "$model" ]; then model="$model_name" fi echo "Model $model: $content" else echo "Error processing model: $model_name" echo "Raw Result: $result" fi echo echo } for model in "${models[@]}"; do query_model "$model" & done wait ``` I got this output: ``` $ ./queryModels.sh Model openrouter/amazon/nova-pro-v1: Gold, Growth Stocks, Real Estate, Dividend-Paying Stocks Model openrouter/x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212: 1 year: Cash 3 years: Bonds 5 years: Stocks 10 years: Real Estate Model gemini-2.0-flash-exp: Bitcoin, Index Fund, Real Estate, Index Fund Model meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct: Cash, Stocks, Real Estate, Stocks Model openrouter/cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b: Gold, Apple Inc. stock, Tesla Inc. stock, real estate Model claude-3-5-sonnet-v2: Bitcoin, Amazon stock, S&P 500 index fund, S&P 500 index fund Model gpt-4o-2024-08-06: S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF Model openrouter/deepseek/deepseek-chat: Bitcoin, S&P 500 ETF, Gold, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Model openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview: As an AI language model, I don't have personal opinions or the ability to make financial decisions. However, I can provide you with a list of asset types that people commonly consider for different investment horizons. Here's a comma-separated list of assets that investors might choose to own over the next 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years: High-Yield Savings Accounts, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), Money Market Funds, Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Stocks, Index Funds, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Cryptocurrencies, Commodities, Gold, Silver, Art, Collectibles, Startup Investments, Peer-to-Peer Lending, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Municipal Bonds, International Stocks, Emerging Market Funds, Green Bonds, Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) Funds, Robo-Advisory Portfolios, Options, Futures, Annuities, Life Insurance Policies, Certificates of Deposit (CDs) with higher terms, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), Timberland, Farmland, Infrastructure Funds, Private Equity, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Bonds, Digital Real Estate, and Virtual Currencies. Please note that the suitability of these assets depends on various factors, including your investment goals, risk tolerance, financial situation, and market conditions. It's essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. curl: (28) Operation timed out after 60001 milliseconds with 0 bytes received Model deepseek-r1: ``` Brought into a table format: | Model | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | amazon/nova-pro-v1 | Gold | Growth Stocks | Real Estate | Dividend-Paying Stocks | | x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212 | Cash | Bonds | Stocks | Real Estate | | gemini-2.0-flash-exp | **Bitcoin** | Index Fund | Real Estate | Index Fund | | meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct | Cash | Stocks | Real Estate | Stocks | | cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b | Gold | Apple Inc. stock | Tesla Inc. stock | real estate | | claude-3-5-sonnet-v2 | **Bitcoin** | Amazon stock | S&P 500 index fund | S&P 500 index fund | | gpt-4o-2024-08-06 | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | | deepseek/deepseek-chat | **Bitcoin** | S&P 500 ETF | Gold | Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) | qwen/qwq-32b-preview returned garbage. deepseek-r1 returned nothing. For the second question I used "What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Bitcoin for a 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years investment horizon. Reply only with a comma separated list of percentage allocations." ``` Model gpt-4o-2024-05-13: 0.5, 3, 5, 10 Model gemini-2.0-flash-exp: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% Model claude-3-5-sonnet-v2: 1%, 3%, 5%, 10% Model openrouter/x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212: 1 year: 2%, 3 years: 5%, 5 years: 10%, 10 years: 15% Model openrouter/amazon/nova-pro-v1: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% Model openrouter/deepseek/deepseek-chat: 1, 3, 5, 10 Model openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview: I'm sorry, but as an AI language model, I cannot provide specific investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider individual financial circumstances before making any investment decisions. Additionally, the optimal portfolio allocation can vary based on factors such as risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions. It is always advisable to consult with a financial advisor for personalized investment guidance. Model meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct: I must advise that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and crypto investments carry significant risks. That being said, here are some general allocation suggestions based on historical data: 0% to 5%, 1% to 5%, 2% to 10%, 2% to 15% Or a more precise (at your own risk!): 1.4%, 2.7%, 3.8%, 6.2% Please keep in mind these are not personalized investment advice. It is essential to assess your personal financial situation and risk tolerance before investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Model openrouter/cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b: Based on historical data and assuming a continuous investment horizon, I would recommend the following percentage allocations to Bitcoin: 1-year: 15%, 3-years: 10%, 5-years: 7.5%, 10-years: 5%. Model deepseek/deepseek-r1: 5%,10%,15%,20% ``` Again in table form: | Model | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | gpt-4o-2024-05-13 | 0.5% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | gemini-2.0-flash-exp | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | | claude-3-5-sonnet-v2 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | | amazon/nova-pro-v1 | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | | deepseek/deepseek-chat | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b | 15% | 10% | 7.5% | 5% | | deepseek/deepseek-r1 | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview returned garbage. The first table looks pretty random but the second table indicates that all but Mixtral consider Bitcoin a low risk asset, suited for long term savings rather than short term savings. I could not at all reproduce Eric's findings. https://i.nostr.build/ihsk1lBnZCQemmQb.png

@ fc481c65:e280e7ba

A matrix is a rectangular array of numbers, symbols, or expressions, arranged in rows and columns. The individual items in a matrix are called its elements or entries. They are foundational element in many areas of #Mathematics and #Engineering including #Electronics #Computer #Science #Finances and more. ### Notation and Terms - **Dimensions**: The size of a matrix is defined by its number of rows and columns and is often referred to as `m x n`, where `m` is the number of rows and `n` is the number of columns. - **Square Matrix**: A matrix with the same number of rows and columns (`n x n`). - **Diagonal Matrix**: A square matrix where all elements off the main diagonal are zero. - **Identity Matrix**: A diagonal matrix where all the elements on the main diagonal are 1. It's denoted as `I`. - **Zero Matrix**: A matrix all of whose entries are zero. ### Basic Matrix Operations 1. **Addition and Subtraction** - Matrices must be of the same dimensions to be added or subtracted. - Add or subtract corresponding elements. - Example: - `$$\begin{bmatrix}1 & 2 \\3 & 4\end{bmatrix}+\begin{bmatrix}5 & 6 \\7 & 8\end{bmatrix}=\begin{bmatrix}6 & 8 \\10 & 12\end{bmatrix}$$` 2. **Scalar Multiplication** - Multiply every element of a matrix by a scalar (a single number). - Example: - `$$ 2 \times \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 \\ 3 & 4 \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 4 \\ 6 & 8 \end{bmatrix} $$` 3. **Matrix Multiplication** - The number of columns in the first matrix must be equal to the number of rows in the second matrix. - The product of an `m x n` matrix and an `n x p` matrix is an `m x p` matrix. - Multiply rows by columns, summing the products of the corresponding elements. - Example: - `$$ \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 \\ 3 & 4 \end{bmatrix} \times \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 0 \\ 1 & 2 \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} (1 \times 2 + 2 \times 1) & (1 \times 0 + 2 \times 2) \\ (3 \times 2 + 4 \times 1) & (3 \times 0 + 4 \times 2) \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 4 & 4 \\ 10 & 8 \end{bmatrix} $$` ### Special Matrix Operations 1. **Determinant** - Only for square matrices. - A scalar value that can be computed from the elements of a square matrix and encodes certain properties of the matrix. - Example for a 2x2 matrix: - `$$ \text{det} \begin{bmatrix} a & b \\ c & d \end{bmatrix} = ad - bc $$` 2. **Inverse** - Only for square matrices. - The matrix that, when multiplied by the original matrix, results in the identity matrix. - Not all matrices have inverses; a matrix must be "nonsingular" to have an inverse. ### Practical Applications - **Solving Systems of Linear Equations** - Matrices are used to represent and solve systems of linear equations using methods like Gaussian elimination. `$$X=A^{-1}\times B$$` - **Transformations in Computer Graphics** - Matrix multiplication is used to perform geometric transformations such as rotations, translations, and scaling. `$$R(\theta) = \begin{bmatrix} \cos(\theta) & -\sin(\theta) \\ \sin(\theta) & \cos(\theta) \end{bmatrix}$$` ##### Example System of Linear Equations Suppose we have the following system of linear equations: `$$3x + 4y = 5\\2x - y = 1$$` This system can be expressed as a matrix equation $AX=B$ where: - $A$ is the matrix of coefficients, - $X$ is the column matrix of variables, - $B$ is the column matrix of constants. * ***Matrix A** (coefficients): `$$\begin{bmatrix} 3 & 4 \\ 2 & -1 \end{bmatrix}$$` * ***Matrix X** (variables): `$$\begin{bmatrix} x \\ y \end{bmatrix}$$` * ***Matrix B** (constants): `$$\begin{bmatrix} 5 \\ 1 \end{bmatrix}$$` Now Organising in Matrix form `$$\begin{bmatrix} 3 & 4 \\ 2 & -1 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} x \\ y \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 5 \\ 1 \end{bmatrix}$$` ##### Solving the Equation To solve for $X$, we can calculate the inverse of A (provided A is invertible) and then multiply it by B: `$$X=A^{-1}\times B$$` ## Matrices with SymPy ```python from sympy import Matrix, symbols # Define symbols x, y, z = symbols('x y z') # Define a 2x2 matrix A = Matrix([[1, 2], [3, 4]]) print("Matrix A:") print(A) # Define a 3x3 matrix with symbolic elements B = Matrix([[x, y, z], [y, z, x], [z, x, y]]) print("\nMatrix B:") print(B) # Define two matrices of the same size C = Matrix([[5, 6], [7, 8]]) D = Matrix([[1, 1], [1, 1]]) # Addition E = C + D print("\nMatrix Addition (C + D):") print(E) # Subtraction F = C - D print("\nMatrix Subtraction (C - D):") print(F) # Scalar multiplication G = 2 * A print("\nScalar Multiplication (2 * A):") print(G) # Matrix multiplication H = A * C print("\nMatrix Multiplication (A * C):") print(H) # Determinant of a matrix det_A = A.det() print("\nDeterminant of Matrix A:") print(det_A) # Inverse of a matrix inv_A = A.inv() print("\nInverse of Matrix A:") print(inv_A) # Define the coefficient matrix A and the constant matrix B A_sys = Matrix([[3, 4], [2, -1]]) B_sys = Matrix([5, 1]) # Solve the system AX = B X = A_sys.inv() * B_sys print("\nSolution to the system of linear equations:") print(X) # Compute eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a matrix eigenvals = A.eigenvals() eigenvects = A.eigenvects() print("\nEigenvalues of Matrix A:") print(eigenvals) print("\nEigenvectors of Matrix A:") print(eigenvects) ``` ## References * [Dear linear algebra students, This is what matrices (and matrix manipulation) really look like](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4csuTO7UTMo) * [Essence of linear algebra](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZHQObOWTQDPD3MizzM2xVFitgF8hE_ab) * [The Applications of Matrices | What I wish my teachers told me way earlier](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rowWM-MijXU) * [Inverse of 2x2 Matrix](https://www.cuemath.com/algebra/inverse-of-2x2-matrix/) * [Matrices Tutorial](https://www.cuemath.com/algebra/solve-matrices/)

@ 4857600b:30b502f4

In a revealing development that exposes the hypocrisy of government surveillance, multiple federal agencies including the CIA and FBI have filed lawsuits to keep Samourai Wallet's client list sealed during and after trial proceedings. This move strongly suggests that government agencies themselves were utilizing Samourai's privacy-focused services while simultaneously condemning similar privacy tools when used by ordinary citizens. The situation bears striking parallels to other cases where government agencies have hidden behind "national security" claims, such as the Jeffrey Epstein case, highlighting a troubling double standard: while average citizens are expected to surrender their financial privacy through extensive reporting requirements and regulations, government agencies claim exemption from these same transparency standards they enforce on others. This case exemplifies the fundamental conflict between individual liberty and state power, where government agencies appear to be using the very privacy tools they prosecute others for using. The irony is particularly stark given that money laundering for intelligence agencies is considered legal in our system, while private citizens seeking financial privacy face severe legal consequences - a clear demonstration of how the state creates different rules for itself versus the people it claims to serve. Citations: [1] https://www.bugle.news/cia-fbi-dnc-rnc-all-sue-to-redact-samourais-client-list-from-trial/

@ 6e0ea5d6:0327f353

"Malcolm Forbes recounts that a lady, wearing a faded cotton dress, and her husband, dressed in an old handmade suit, stepped off a train in Boston, USA, and timidly made their way to the office of the president of Harvard University. They had come from Palo Alto, California, and had not scheduled an appointment. The secretary, at a glance, thought that those two, looking like country bumpkins, had no business at Harvard. — We want to speak with the president — the man said in a low voice. — He will be busy all day — the secretary replied curtly. — We will wait. The secretary ignored them for hours, hoping the couple would finally give up and leave. But they stayed there, and the secretary, somewhat frustrated, decided to bother the president, although she hated doing that. — If you speak with them for just a few minutes, maybe they will decide to go away — she said. The president sighed in irritation but agreed. Someone of his importance did not have time to meet people like that, but he hated faded dresses and tattered suits in his office. With a stern face, he went to the couple. — We had a son who studied at Harvard for a year — the woman said. — He loved Harvard and was very happy here, but a year ago he died in an accident, and we would like to erect a monument in his honor somewhere on campus. — My lady — said the president rudely —, we cannot erect a statue for every person who studied at Harvard and died; if we did, this place would look like a cemetery. — Oh, no — the lady quickly replied. — We do not want to erect a statue. We would like to donate a building to Harvard. The president looked at the woman's faded dress and her husband's old suit and exclaimed: — A building! Do you have even the faintest idea of how much a building costs? We have more than seven and a half million dollars' worth of buildings here at Harvard. The lady was silent for a moment, then said to her husband: — If that’s all it costs to found a university, why don’t we have our own? The husband agreed. The couple, Leland Stanford, stood up and left, leaving the president confused. Traveling back to Palo Alto, California, they established there Stanford University, the second-largest in the world, in honor of their son, a former Harvard student." Text extracted from: "Mileumlivros - Stories that Teach Values." Thank you for reading, my friend! If this message helped you in any way, consider leaving your glass “🥃” as a token of appreciation. A toast to our family!

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

In 2021, El Salvador embarked on an unprecedented financial experiment under President Nayib Bukele's leadership by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender. This decision was not only groundbreaking but also positioned the small Central American nation as a pioneer in the global financial landscape. The move was seen as a step towards modernizing the country's financial system and making it more inclusive and forward-thinking. It was a daring venture into uncharted territory, signaling El Salvador's willingness to embrace technological innovation and challenge traditional economic models. The decision was met with a mix of admiration and skepticism globally, as it represented a significant departure from conventional monetary policy and raised questions about the future of digital currencies in mainstream finance. **Table of Contents** - The Genesis of the Bitcoin Law - Implementation and Challenges - Economic Impacts and International Response - Bukele's Vision and Controversies - The Future of Bitcoin in El Salvador - Conclusion - FAQs **The Genesis of the Bitcoin Law** The journey to adopting Bitcoin as legal tender was marked by the introduction of the Bitcoin Law, a bold legislative move by President Bukele's administration. This law required all businesses to accept Bitcoin in addition to the US dollar, which had been El Salvador's official currency for two decades. The law aimed to democratize financial access, especially for the 70% of Salvadorans who did not have bank accounts and relied heavily on cash transactions. It also sought to reduce remittance costs for millions of Salvadorans living abroad, who annually send billions of dollars back home. The Bitcoin Law was a part of Bukele's broader strategy to reposition El Salvador as a hub for technological innovation and economic growth. However, the law also raised significant questions about the feasibility and stability of using a highly volatile digital currency in everyday transactions. **Implementation and Challenges** Implementing the Bitcoin Law was a complex endeavor. The government's launch of the “Chivo” digital wallet was intended to facilitate Bitcoin transactions and offer a $30 Bitcoin incentive to users. However, the rollout faced technical glitches and public mistrust in cryptocurrency. Many Salvadorans were unfamiliar with Bitcoin, leading to a steep learning curve and reluctance to transition from traditional cash transactions. Additionally, the fluctuating value of Bitcoin posed a risk to users, particularly those living in poverty or on fixed incomes. The government's efforts to promote Bitcoin adoption also faced international scrutiny, with financial experts questioning the impact on El Salvador's financial stability and its relationship with global financial institutions. **Economic Impacts and International Response** The economic impact of Bitcoin's adoption in El Salvador has been a subject of intense debate. On one hand, it has attracted significant attention from the global cryptocurrency community, positioning the country as a potential hub for digital finance. On the other hand, the move has been met with caution and criticism from international financial institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, expressed concern over the potential risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility and its implications for financial stability, governance, and consumer protection. The fluctuating value of Bitcoin also posed a challenge for the national budget and financial planning. Despite these concerns, the Bukele administration remained committed to its digital currency strategy, viewing it as a long-term investment in the country's economic future. **Bukele's Vision and Controversies** President Nayib Bukele, a charismatic and controversial leader, has been at the center of El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment. His administration's aggressive push for Bitcoin adoption was part of a broader vision to transform El Salvador into a modern, technologically advanced economy. Bukele's plans included the development of a “Bitcoin City,” funded by Bitcoin-backed bonds, which was envisioned as a tax-free haven for cryptocurrency investors. However, these ambitious projects have not been without controversy. Critics have raised concerns about the lack of transparency in the government's Bitcoin transactions and the potential for financial mismanagement. Bukele's autocratic tendencies, including his clashes with the judiciary and the press, have also raised alarms about the democratic governance of these initiatives. **The Future of Bitcoin in El Salvador** As El Salvador continues its journey with Bitcoin, the future of this initiative remains a topic of global interest and speculation. The country is navigating uncharted waters, and its experience will likely serve as a case study for other nations contemplating similar moves. The success of Bitcoin in El Salvador depends on various factors, including technological infrastructure, public education, and global market dynamics. The government's ability to manage the currency's volatility and integrate it into the broader economy will be crucial. Additionally, the impact of this initiative on financial inclusion, remittances, and economic growth will be closely watched. El Salvador's experiment with Bitcoin could pave the way for a new era of digital currency adoption, but it also faces significant challenges that could shape its outcome. **Conclusion** El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender under President Bukele's leadership marks a significant moment in the history of digital currency. This bold move has positioned the country as a trailblazer in the cryptocurrency world, but the long-term outcomes of this bold experiment remain uncertain. As El Salvador navigates the challenges and opportunities presented by this initiative, its journey will undoubtedly offer crucial insights into the future intersection of technology, finance, and governance. The world is watching as El Salvador tests the limits of cryptocurrency integration, and its experiences will likely influence global financial policies and the adoption of digital currencies in the years to come. Whether El Salvador's gamble on Bitcoin will pay off or serve as a cautionary tale remains to be seen, but its impact on the global financial landscape is undeniable. **FAQs** **What is the Bitcoin Law in El Salvador?** The Bitcoin Law in El Salvador is a legislation that made Bitcoin a legal tender alongside the US dollar. It mandates all businesses to accept Bitcoin for transactions and was introduced to promote financial inclusion and modernize the economy. **Why did El Salvador adopt Bitcoin as legal tender?** El Salvador adopted Bitcoin to increase financial accessibility for its unbanked population, reduce remittance costs, and position itself as a leader in digital currency innovation. **How does the Chivo wallet work?** The Chivo wallet is a government-backed digital wallet that facilitates Bitcoin transactions in El Salvador. Users receive a $30 Bitcoin bonus for signing up, aiming to encourage the adoption of Bitcoin. **What are the challenges faced by El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin?** Challenges include technical issues with the Chivo wallet, public mistrust and lack of understanding of Bitcoin, and the currency's volatility impacting economic stability. **How has the international community responded to El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption?** The international response has been mixed, with some praising the innovative approach, while institutions like the IMF have expressed concerns over financial stability and consumer protection. **What is Bitcoin City and how is it funded?** Bitcoin City is a proposed development in El Salvador, envisioned as a tax-free zone for cryptocurrency investors. It is planned to be funded by Bitcoin-backed bonds. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

It's Finally here Stackers! It's Friday! We're about to kick off our weekends with some feel good tracks. Let's get the party started. Bring me those Feel Good tracks. Let's get it! Party Rock! https://youtu.be/KQ6zr6kCPj8?si=jyncDuzGh73_PbuP Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/892973

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX remains highly volatile and the overall trend is uncertain. While the long-term trend (Daily chart) is technically still an uptrend, it has *weakened significantly*. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts are in confirmed downtrends. This analysis focuses on identifying key levels where Smart Money might be active and assessing trend strength. **Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (Daily):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9YgoBlr/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9YgoBlr/) * **Trend:** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening, *at high risk of reversing*). * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** * Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *becoming less defined and broken*. The recent price action has broken previous lows. * Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but now a significant and deep pullback is underway. * **Liquidity:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range. This is a likely target for Smart Money. * **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high. * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):** * **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block (the large green candle before a significant up-move). This is a *major bearish signal*. * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * Price has *broken below* the 50-period EMA (yellow), a bearish signal. * The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * A *long red bar* indicates strong selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud indicating Downtrend, *No Buy/Sell Signal*. * **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume on the recent decline. * **Candlesticks:** The most recent candlestick is red, confirming selling pressure. * **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area). * **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High. * **Summary:** The Daily chart's uptrend is significantly weakening. The break below the 50 EMA *and* the bullish Order Block, combined with the negative Money Flow and bearish Trend Strength, are all major warning signs. The SSL below is a key area to watch. **(2) TF4H (4-Hour):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/0sGC0Gny/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0sGC0Gny/) * **Trend:** Downtrend. * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). * BOS to the downside. * **Liquidity:** * **SSL:** Below previous lows. * **BSL:** Above previous highs. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** The price was rejected by a bearish order Block * **EMA:** * Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish). * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Green Cloud *But No Buy/Sell Signal.* Indicates Sideway * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high volume. * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. The Money Flow is bearish, price below both EMAs. **(3) TF15 (15-Minute):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/) * **Trend:** Downtrend (but showing *some* signs of consolidation/sideways movement). * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) - but with *slightly* higher lows recently. * BOS to the downside. * **ICT:** * **Order Block** Price could not break up the bearish Order Block. * **EMA:** * The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Alternating red and green, predominantly red. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud (Bearish), *BUT* there's a *bullish divergence* (price made a lower low, but the Trend Strength indicator made a higher low). This is a *potential* early warning sign, but needs *strong confirmation*. * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high Volume * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is in a downtrend, although with *very tentative* signs of stabilization. The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength is noteworthy, but *not* a buy signal on its own. **Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):** * **Primary Trend (Day):** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening). * **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend. * **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend (Potential Early Reversal Signals). * **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes. * **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15m. Sideway on 4H. * **Strategies:** 1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The conflicting signals and the strong bearish momentum on the shorter timeframes, combined with the weakening Daily chart, make waiting the most prudent approach. Look for: * **Bearish Confirmation:** A decisive break below the recent lows on the 15m and 4H charts, with increasing volume and continued negative Money Flow. This would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * **Bullish Confirmation:** A strong, sustained break above the 15m EMAs, a shift in the 15m Money Flow to green, *and* a bullish signal on the 4H Trend Strength, *and* price holding above EMAs and ideally reclaiming the Daily Order Block. 2. **Short (High Risk):** This aligns with the 4H and 15m downtrends. * **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance). * **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe. * **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then potentially the SSL zones on the 4H and Daily charts). 3. **Buy (Extremely High Risk - Not Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes, including a definitive shift in market structure on the 4H and 15m charts, positive Money Flow, and a clear break above resistance levels. The bullish divergence on the 15m Trend Strength is *not* sufficient on its own. **Key Recommendations:** * **Conflicting Timeframes:** The primary conflict is now resolved toward the downside. The Daily is weakening significantly. * **Money Flow:** Consistently negative, a major bearish factor. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15, Sideways on 4H, but the *divergence* on the 15m is a *potential* early warning. * **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block is a significant bearish development. * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting. * **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings. * **Volume:** Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume. **Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:** * **Day Trade (TF15 focus):** * **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities. * **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside). * **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows). * **Be very cautious:** The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength indicator suggests a potential bounce *could* occur. Don't be aggressive with shorts until this divergence is invalidated. * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure). * **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):** * **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend. * **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection. * **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones). * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart. **SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):** 1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move). *We have identified this in previous analyses.* 2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block (this may or may not happen). 3. **Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern). * **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. * **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red). 4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block. 5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe. **In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, bearish environment in the short-to-medium term. The "Wait & See" approach is strongly recommended for most traders. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk extremely effectively. Buying is not recommended at this time.** **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม BTCUSDT (OKX):** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) ยังคงมีความผันผวนและแนวโน้มที่ไม่ชัดเจน แม้ว่า TF Day จะยังคงแสดงโครงสร้างตลาดที่เป็นขาขึ้น *แต่* ก็เริ่มอ่อนแรงลงอย่างเห็นได้ชัด แนวโน้ม TF4H และ TF15 เป็น Sideway Down **วิเคราะห์ทีละ Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (รายวัน):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/IVA4uegL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/IVA4uegL/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาขึ้น (Uptrend) *อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, มีความเสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม* * **SMC:** * Higher Highs (HH) และ Higher Lows (HL) *เริ่มไม่ชัดเจน, ราคาหลุด Low ก่อนหน้า* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านบน *แต่มีการปรับฐานที่รุนแรง* * **Liquidity:** * มี Sellside Liquidity (SSL) อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า (บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000) * มี Buyside Liquidity (BSL) อยู่เหนือ High เดิม * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาหลุด Order Block ขาขึ้น * **EMA:** * ราคา *หลุด* EMA 50 (สีเหลือง) ลงมาแล้ว * EMA 200 (สีขาว) เป็นแนวรับถัดไป * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * *สีแดงยาว* แสดงถึงแรงขายที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *และไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขายปรากฏ* * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างเบาบาง * **แท่งเทียน:** แท่งเทียนล่าสุดเป็นสีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **แนวรับ:** EMA 200, บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000 (SSL) * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, High เดิม * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาขึ้นอ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, *สัญญาณอันตรายหลายอย่าง*, Money Flow และ Trend Strength เป็นลบ, *หลุด Order Block และ EMA 50* **(2) TF4H (4 ชั่วโมง):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/BP0BDAts/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/BP0BDAts/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** Sideway Down * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **Liquidity:** * มี SSL อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า * มี BSL อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ขาลงได้ และราคากำลังทดสอบ Order Block ขาขึ้น * **EMA:** * ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200 * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * เขียว/ไม่มีสัญญาณ แสดงถึงแนวโน้ม Sideway * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด, Order Block * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, บริเวณ Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้ม Sideway Down, แรงขายมีอิทธิพล **(3) TF15 (15 นาที):** [(https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/)](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) *แต่เริ่มเห็นสัญญาณ Sideways* * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) *เริ่มเห็นการยก Low เล็กน้อย* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคา Sideways ใกล้ Order Block * **EMA:** * EMA 50 และ EMA 200 เป็นแนวต้าน * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * แดงสลับเขียว * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *แต่มีสัญญาณ Bullish Divergence (ราคาทำ Lower Low แต่ Trend Strength ยก Low)* * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง, เริ่มพักตัว, Money Flow เริ่มมีความไม่แน่นอน **สรุปภาพรวมและกลยุทธ์ (BTCUSDT):** * **แนวโน้มหลัก (Day):** ขาขึ้น (*อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, เสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม*) * **แนวโน้มรอง (4H):** Sideway Down * **แนวโน้มระยะสั้น (15m):** ขาลง (เริ่มพักตัว, *มี Divergence*) * **Liquidity:** มี SSL ทั้งใน Day, 4H, และ 15m * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** Day/15m เป็นขาลง, 4H Sideway * **กลยุทธ์:** 1. **Wait & See (ดีที่สุด):** รอความชัดเจน 2. **Short (เสี่ยง):** ถ้าไม่สามารถ Breakout EMA/แนวต้านใน TF ใดๆ ได้ หรือเมื่อเกิดสัญญาณ Bearish Continuation 3. **ไม่แนะนำให้ Buy:** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจนมากๆ **Day Trade & การเทรดรายวัน:** * **Day Trade (TF15):** * **Short Bias:** หาจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาเด้งขึ้นไปทดสอบแนวต้าน (EMA, Order Block) * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (Low ล่าสุด) * **ระวัง:** Bullish Divergence ใน Trend Strength * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** * **Swing Trade (TF4H):** * **Short Bias:** รอจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาไม่สามารถผ่านแนวต้าน EMA หรือ Order Block ได้ * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** มีโอกาสสูงที่ราคาจะถูกลากลงไปแตะ SSL * **False Breakouts:** ระวัง * **Volatility:** สูง * **Divergence (TF15):** อาจเป็นสัญญาณเริ่มต้นของการกลับตัว *แต่ต้องรอการยืนยัน* * **Trend Strength (TF4H):** ไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขาย ต้องระวัง **Setup Day Trade แบบ SMC (ตัวอย่าง):** 1. **ระบุ Order Block:** หา Order Block ขาลง (Bearish Order Block) ใน TF15 (แท่งเทียนสีเขียวก่อนที่ราคาจะลงแรง) 2. **รอ Pullback:** รอให้ราคา Pullback ขึ้นไปทดสอบ Order Block นั้น 3. **หา Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** รอ Price Action ปฏิเสธ Order Block (เช่น เกิด Pin Bar, Engulfing) * **Break of Structure:** รอให้ราคา Break โครงสร้างย่อยๆ ใน TF ที่เล็กกว่า (เช่น 1m, 5m) หลังจากที่ทดสอบ Order Block * **Money Flow:** ดู Money Flow ให้เป็นสีแดง 4. **ตั้ง Stop Loss:** เหนือ Order Block 5. **ตั้ง Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (เช่น Low ล่าสุด) หรือ Order Block ขาขึ้น (Bullish Order Block) ใน TF ที่ใหญ่กว่า **คำแนะนำ:** * **ความขัดแย้งของ Timeframes:** มีอยู่ แต่แนวโน้มระยะกลาง-สั้น เป็นลบ * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** เริ่มมี Divergence ใน TF15 * **Order Block TF Day:** หลุด Order Block ขาขึ้นแล้ว * **ถ้าไม่แน่ใจ อย่าเพิ่งเข้าเทรด** **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ