@ f3873798:24b3f2f3

A liberdade de expressão e a descentralização do poder estão intimamente ligadas ao avanço do pensamento humano e à construção de uma sociedade mais justa e consciente. A evolução da compreensão sobre o certo e o errado surge da comunicação, da observação empírica e da análise das consequências de ações passadas. Para que haja uma aproximação real com a verdade e uma relação equilibrada entre a razão da vida e o convívio com o poder, é essencial garantir a liberdade de expressão. Somente por meio do livre debate de ideias é possível avaliar as diversas perspectivas, identificar erros e aprender com eles. Embora a maioria das pessoas busque o aprendizado e a compreensão do que é correto, o apego cego a uma ideia evidentemente equivocada pode fazer com que percam o real propósito da busca pela verdade. Em vez de refletirem criticamente, muitos acabam apenas defendendo um erro pelo simples fato de se identificarem com ele. Esse é um dos motivos pelos quais a censura tem se tornado uma ferramenta tão temida e contestada. Ilude-se quem acredita que a censura existe apenas para combater crimes e golpes. Na realidade, quanto maior a censura, mais favorecidos são aqueles que desejam ocultar informações, tornando ainda mais difícil a identificação e o combate a abusos. Nos países livres, onde a liberdade de expressão é respeitada, há maior autonomia nas decisões políticas e um engajamento mais ativo da população. A participação cidadã fortalece o controle do povo sobre as influências que moldam o convívio social, garantindo que o poder não fique concentrado nas mãos de poucos, mas distribuído de forma mais democrática e justa.

@ f7d424b5:618c51e8

(This was originally posted on melonmancy.net which is a blog on write.as, an ActivityPub based blogging instance) Listeners rejoice as we are joined today by [ironee212 @ shitposter.world](https://shitposter.world/ironee212) Another major videogame release happened since we last recorded and it looks like a big stinker, or is it? All that and more in today's episode. We mentioned a few things in the show you might want to pull up while listening, they are the following: - [Avowed steam chart](https://steamdb.info/app/2457220/charts/) - [TF2 SDK news](https://www.teamfortress.com/post.php?id=238809) Obligatory: - [Listen to the new episode here!](https://melonmancy.net/listen) - [Discuss this episode on OUR NEW FORUM](https://melonmancy.cafe/d/103-mp101-my-favorite-body-type-b) - [Get the RSS and Subscribe](https://feeds.rssblue.com/melonmancy-podcast) (this is a new feed URL, but the old one redirects here too!) - Get a modern podcast app to use that RSS feed on at [newpodcastapps.com](http://newpodcastapps.com/) - Or listen to the show on [the forum](https://melonmancy.cafe) using the embedded [Podverse](https://podverse.fm) player! - [Send your complaints here](https://melonmancy.net/contact-us) Reminder that this is a [Value4Value](https://value4value.info/) podcast so any support you can give us via a modern podcasting app is greatly appreciated and we will never bow to corporate sponsors! Our podcast is created entirely with free software and is proudly hosted on [RSSBlue!](https://rssblue.com)

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

I recently wrote a post “[What? Do Not Pray For ...](https://trustjesus.substack.com/p/what-do-not-pray-for)” where I shared a passage telling us not to pray for the nation of Israel (at a particular point in time). Before reading this post, I strongly encourage you to read that post first. The verse in question was: > “As for you, **do not pray for this people, and do not lift up cry or prayer for them, and do not intercede with Me; for I do not hear you**. Do you not see what they are doing in the cities of Judah and in the streets of Jerusalem? The children gather wood, and the fathers kindle the fire, and the women knead dough to make cakes for the queen of heaven; and *they* pour out drink offerings to other gods in order to spite Me. Do they spite Me?” declares the Lord. “Is it not themselves *they spite,* to their own shame?” (Jeremiah 7:16-19) {emphasis mine} Jeremiah was told not to pray blessings on Israel because Israel had turned away from God and were serving other Gods. I was just listening to a “Renewing Your Mind” podcast and the speaker made the statement, “We all want to say, ‘God bless America,’ but we don’t want to hear, ‘God curse America.’” That made me contemplate, “Should we ask God to bless America?” Over the past decade or more (probably several decades), America has been using its military and economic might to push actions around the globe that are abhorrent to God. We give aid to countries if they legalize and fund abortions, if they promote gay marriage, and if they encourage transgender surgeries and chemical castration. They encourage people and nations to murder unborn children, to redefine marriage as different than what God created it to be, and to sterilize young people confused about their gender, breaking both God’s good creation of male and female and \ His command to be fruitful and multiply. You could make the argument that the US has been the largest purveyor of evil in the world. (It breaks my heart to say this.) It is true that with the past election, America has turned away from many of these evil actions, but have Americans truly repented and turned back to God? I am convinced that neither our leaders nor most of our people have turned back to God in any significant way. It is like famous atheist, Richard Dawkins, saying he misses Christian culture but continuing to reject God and make fun of actual Christians. We can’t have it both ways. We can’t have God’s blessings without God. Now I am not saying that we shouldn’t pray for America. It is totally appropriate to pray for revival in America. It is good to pray for Americans to repent of their sins and to trust in Jesus. It is great to pray for God to help us to share the gospel and to produce fruit. The issue is that we shouldn’t pray for America’s blessing while she has turned her back on God. Obviously there are a decent number of Christians in America. That and the fact that America was founded on Christian principles actually means that America will be punished harsher than those nations where people have had little knowledge of the Bible and Jesus. Those who have been shown the gospel and still rejected God will be held to a higher standard and will be punished harsher than those who have never heard the gospel. I ask you to pray that God would bring revival to America, that He would turn hearts and minds to Himself, and that He would draw our leaders to submit in full trust and obedience to Him. I also pray that God would help all of believers to be faithful stewards with all of the blessings with which He has already showered us and to use us to shine the light of the gospel with America and the rest of the world. I pray that He would help us to live lives fully devoted to Him and will help us to stand out from the crowd of pseudo-Christians and normal people, so we can be used to draw America back to God. Unfortunately, we may be in a situation, like Jeremiah and Israel, where the nation has turned so far from God that we will be rejected in the same way they reject Jesus. We may have to look upon the nation we love and let go because our citizenship is in heaven. We need to always be more devoted to God and His kingdom than we are to our earthly citizenship. > “Son of man, if a country sins against Me by committing unfaithfulness, and I stretch out My hand against it, destroy its supply of bread, send famine against it and cut off from it both man and beast, even though these three men, Noah, Daniel and Job were in its midst, by their own righteousness they could only deliver themselves,” declares the Lord God. (Ezekiel 14:13-14) May God guide you in your prayers, your actions, and your faith so that you will be a light in the darkness and never forget where your allegiance lies. I pledge allegiance to my God, my Lord, and my Creator, and to Him alone does my allegiance belong. Trust Jesus

@ 132b7b75:2321bcf6

# == January 17 2025 Out From Underneath | Prism Shores crazy arms | pigeon pit Humanhood | The Weather Station # == february 07 2025 Wish Defense | FACS Sayan - Savoie | Maria Teriaeva Nowhere Near Today | Midding # == february 14 2025 Phonetics On and On | Horsegirl # == february 21 2025 Finding Our Balance | Tsoh Tso Machine Starts To Sing | Porridge Radio Armageddon In A Summer Dress | Sunny War

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

My wife and I have six children, making our house a household of eight people. Looking just at the eight of us, how many relationships exist? Well, as a first stab, we could look at how many connections exist between two unique individuals in this family. The mathematical term for this is “8 choose 2”, and the answer is 8\*7/2, or 28\. Even that doesn’t really capture the answer though, because relationships aren’t just between two people. For example, when my wife and two oldest children are the only ones still awake after the younger kids go to bed, we’ll put on my mature TV shows that they’ll appreciate and watch together. It’s our own little subgroup within the group. Based on that, we could have groups of 2, 3, 4, all the way up to 8, the group of all of us. If you do the math, this comes up to 247 different subgroups of 2 or more people. That’s a lot of groups for just 8 people. As a father, this means I’ll never be able to fully understand every set of connections within my family. I may have a good understanding of my own relationship with each child. I also am closely aware of the relationship between our two youngest children, since they’re twins. And I could probably list 20 or so other noteworthy relationships. But I’ll never understand all of them. For example, months ago I bought a game on Steam for my 3rd and 4th kids. I know they like to play games together, so it was a relationship that I thought I understood well. A few days ago I found out that my oldest had joined them in playing one of these games (Brotato). I’d made the purchase, given it to the kids, and it sparked new relationship and interaction structures without my involvement. There’s no problem with the fact that I can’t track every interaction in my house. That’s healthy\! The kids are able to discover ways of interacting beyond what I can teach them, learn everything from schoolwork to video games from each other, and overall become more healthy and well-adjusted adults (I hope). And here’s the important part: the growth of the number of connections is *massive* as the number of participants increases. If we add in another participant, we have 502 groupings. At 10 total participants, it jumps to over 1,000. By the time we get to 100, we’re well into the trillions. A mathematical and software term for this is *combinatoric complexity*, the massive increase in an output value based on a small increase in the input. The analysis I’m providing could be termed as part of graph theory (for connections of 2, looking at people as *vertices* and connections as *edges*) or set theory (unique subsets, allowing for larger group sizes). But regardless, the point is: the increase in complexity is huge as more people join. Now consider the global economy. It’s over 8 billion people. There are so many people that the number of groupings is absurd to talk about. Nonetheless, massive numbers of these groupings naturally occur. There are family units, friend circles, individual connections, companies, project teams, sports teams, schools, classes, and millions more. These groups of people form new ways of interacting, express vastly different desires for goods and services, and are capable of producing wide varieties of goods and services themselves. When you allow this system to run free, beauty emerges. Each node in the graph can manage its own connections. Each *person* is free to make his or her own decisions about association, what to spend time on, what to spend money on, and so on. Each person does so on their own judgement and world view. Some of these people may make “dumb” decisions. They may “waste” their time and money on useless things. Except: who made that value judgement? Clearly not them, they decided it was worth it. No central planner has the right to override their will. My point in all this is: as yet another of many reasons in the list of “why people should be free,” we have one more data point: pure math. Central planning will never scale. Central planning will never appreciate the individuality and desires of each person. Only by giving people the freedom to explore their connections to others, discover what they can produce and consume, explore their options, and ultimately make their own decisions, can we have any chance of creating a world where everyone can succeed.

@ fc481c65:e280e7ba

**Math is the formalization of a human idea** Mathematics is a broad field of study that involves the investigation of patterns, quantities, structures, and changes in the abstract form as well as their real-world applications. It is foundational to a variety of disciplines including science, engineering, medicine, and the social sciences, providing a framework for reasoning, problem-solving, and understanding the universe. <iframe title="The Map of Mathematics" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OmJ-4B-mS-Y?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe> Mathematics is composed of many subfields, including but not limited to: 1. **Arithmetic:** The study of numbers and the basic operations on them: addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. 2. **Algebra:** The study of symbols and the rules for manipulating these symbols; it is a unifying thread of almost all of mathematics. 3. **Geometry:** The study of shapes, sizes, and properties of space. 4. **Calculus:** The study of change in mathematical functions and models, dealing with limits, derivatives, integrals, and infinite series. 5. **Statistics:** The study of data collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization. 6. **Number Theory:** The study of properties and relationships of numbers, especially the integers. 7. **Topology:** The study of properties that remain constant through continuous deformations, such as stretching and bending, but not tearing or gluing. 8. **Applied Mathematics:** Uses mathematical methods and reasoning to solve real-world problems in business, science, engineering, and other fields. Mathematics is both ancient and modern; it has a rich history stretching back thousands of years, yet it continues to develop and evolve today, with new theories, discoveries, and applications constantly emerging. It is both a rigorous discipline in its own right and an essential tool used throughout the sciences and beyond. ## Pure and Applied Mathematics Pure mathematics and applied mathematics represent two broad categories within the field of mathematics, each with its focus, methodologies, and applications. The distinction between them lies in their primary objectives and the way mathematical theories are utilized. [[Attachments/01233372a59d2dc17b937c38319d672f_MD5.jpeg|Open: Pasted image 20240405125055.png]] ![[Attachments/01233372a59d2dc17b937c38319d672f_MD5.jpeg]] #### Pure Mathematics Pure mathematics is concerned with the study of mathematical concepts independent of any application outside mathematics. It is motivated by a desire to understand abstract principles and the properties of mathematical structures. The pursuit in pure mathematics is knowledge for its own sake, not necessarily aiming to find immediate practical applications. Pure mathematicians often focus on proving theorems and exploring theoretical frameworks, driven by curiosity and the aesthetic appeal of mathematics itself. Key areas within pure mathematics include: - **Algebra:** The study of symbols and the rules for manipulating these symbols. - **Geometry:** The investigation of the properties of space and figures. - **Analysis:** The rigorous formulation of calculus, focusing on limits, continuity, and infinite series. - **Number Theory:** The study of the properties of numbers, particularly integers. - **Topology:** The study of properties preserved through deformations, twistings, and stretchings of objects. #### Applied Mathematics Applied mathematics, on the other hand, is focused on the development and practical use of mathematical methods to solve problems in other areas, such as science, engineering, technology, economics, business, and industry. Applied mathematics is deeply connected with empirical research and the application of mathematical models to real-world situations. It involves the formulation, study, and use of mathematical models and seeks to make predictions, optimize solutions, and develop new approaches based on mathematical theory. Key areas within applied mathematics include: - **Differential Equations:** Used to model rates of change in applied contexts. - **Statistics and Probability:** The study of data, uncertainty, and the quantification of the likelihood of events. - **Computational Mathematics:** The use of algorithmic techniques for solving mathematical problems more efficiently, especially those that are too large for human numerical capacity. - **Mathematical Physics:** The application of mathematics to solve problems in physics and the development of mathematical methods for such applications. ## Is Mathematics discovered or Invented The question of whether mathematics is discovered or invented is a philosophical one that has sparked debate among mathematicians, philosophers, and scientists for centuries. Both viewpoints offer compelling arguments, and the distinction often hinges on one's perspective on the nature of mathematical objects and the universality of mathematical truths. <iframe title="Is math discovered or invented? - Jeff Dekofsky" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X_xR5Kes4Rs?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe> ### Mathematics as Discovered Those who argue that mathematics is discovered believe that mathematical truths exist independently of human thought and that mathematicians uncover these truths through investigation and reasoning. This viewpoint suggests that mathematical concepts like numbers, geometrical shapes, and even more abstract ideas have a reality that transcends human invention. The consistency of mathematical laws across cultures and times, and their applicability in accurately describing the natural world, supports the notion that mathematics is a universal truth waiting to be discovered. According to this perspective, mathematical structures exist in some abstract realm, and humans merely uncover aspects of this pre-existing world. #### Mathematics as Invented On the other hand, the viewpoint that mathematics is invented centers on the idea that mathematical concepts are human creations, designed to describe and understand the world. According to this perspective, mathematical theories and structures are the products of human thought, created to serve specific purposes in science, engineering, and other fields. This view emphasizes the role of creativity and invention in the development of mathematical ideas, suggesting that different cultures or species might develop entirely different mathematical systems depending on their needs and experiences. Proponents of this view point to the variety of mathematical systems (such as different geometries or number systems) that have been invented to solve particular types of problems, arguing that this diversity is evidence of mathematics being a human invention. #### A Middle Ground Some argue for a middle ground, suggesting that while the basic elements of mathematics are discovered, the development of complex mathematical theories and the choice of which aspects to study or develop further involve human invention and creativity. This perspective acknowledges the intrinsic properties of mathematical objects while also recognizing the role of human ingenuity in shaping the field of mathematics. #### Conclusion The debate between discovery and invention in mathematics may never be conclusively resolved, as it touches on deep philosophical questions about the nature of reality and the human mind's relationship to it. Whether one views mathematics as discovered or invented often reflects deeper beliefs about the world and our place within it. ## Axioms a particular mathematical system or theory. They serve as the foundational building blocks from which theorems and other mathematical truths are derived. Axioms are assumed to be self-evident, and their selection is based on their ability to produce a coherent and logically consistent framework for a body of mathematical knowledge. In the context of different branches of mathematics, axioms can vary significantly: - **In Euclidean geometry,** one of the most famous sets of axioms are Euclid's postulates, which include statements like "A straight line segment can be drawn joining any two points," and "All right angles are congruent." - **In algebra,** the field axioms define the properties of operations like addition and multiplication over sets of numbers. - **In set theory,** Zermelo-Fraenkel axioms (with the Axiom of Choice) are a set of axioms used to establish a foundation for much of modern mathematics. The role of axioms has evolved throughout the history of mathematics. Initially, they were considered self-evident truths, but as mathematics has developed, the emphasis has shifted to viewing axioms more as arbitrary starting points chosen for their usefulness in building a mathematical theory. This shift allows for the creation of different, sometimes non-intuitive, mathematical frameworks such as non-Euclidean geometries, which arise from altering Euclid's original postulates. **Everything in maths is constructed based on Axioms, not observation of the scientific method!** It's based only on the human logic reasoning. **And the universe doesn't five a fuck to fit inside human logic reasoning.** <iframe title="The paradox at the heart of mathematics: Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem - Marcus du Sautoy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/I4pQbo5MQOs?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe> ## Mathematics is not a Science Mathematics and science are deeply interconnected, but they are distinguished by their fundamental approaches, methodologies, and objectives. The distinction between mathematics as a formal science and other natural or empirical sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry lies in the nature of their inquiry and validation methods. **Maths doesn't need to prove itself through the scientific method, it only needs axioms, logic, and previous definitions.** - **Mathematics:** Uses deduction as a primary tool. Starting from axioms and definitions, mathematicians use logical reasoning to derive theorems and propositions. The validity of mathematical statements is determined through proofs, which are arguments that demonstrate their truth within the context of axiomatic systems. - **Science:** Employs the scientific method, which involves hypothesis formation, experimentation, observation, and the modification of hypotheses based on empirical evidence. Scientific theories and laws are validated by their ability to predict and explain phenomena in the natural world, and they are always subject to revision in light of new evidence. ### Objectives - **Mathematics:** Aims to create a coherent set of rules and structures that can explain and predict outcomes within abstract systems. Its primary goal is not to describe the physical world but to explore the properties and possibilities of mathematical structures. - **Science:** Aims to understand and describe the universe. The goal is to produce a body of knowledge that explains natural phenomena and can predict outcomes based on empirical evidence. In summary, while mathematics is often used as a tool in science to model and solve problems, its focus on abstract reasoning and logical proof distinguishes it from the empirical methodologies of the natural sciences. This fundamental difference in approach and objective is why mathematics is considered a formal science or a branch of knowledge distinct from natural or physical sciences, which are based on empirical evidence and experimental validation.

@ fc481c65:e280e7ba

Starting with the basics, #statistics is a branch of #mathematics that deals with collecting, analysing, interpreting, presenting, and organising #data. It provides a way to make sense of data, see patterns, and make decisions based on data analysis. Here's a brief overview of some fundamental concepts in statistics: ### 1. Types of Statistics - **Descriptive Statistics**: Involves summarising and organising data so it can be easily understood. Common measures include mean (average), median (middle value), mode (most frequent value), variance (measure of how spread out numbers are), and standard deviation (average distance from the mean). - **Inferential Statistics**: Involves making predictions or inferences about a population based on a sample. This includes hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, and regression analysis. ### 2. Types of Data - **Qualitative Data** (Categorical): Data that describes qualities or characteristics that cannot be measured with numbers, such as colors, names, labels, and yes/no responses. - **Quantitative Data**: Data that can be measured and expressed numerically, including age, height, salary, and temperature. It can be further divided into discrete data (countable items, like the number of students in a class) and continuous data (measurable items, like height). ### 3. Measures of Central Tendency - **Mean**: The average of a data set, found by adding all numbers and dividing by the count of numbers. - **Median**: The middle value when a data set is ordered from least to greatest; if there’s an even number of observations, it is the average of the two middle numbers. - **Mode**: The most frequently occurring value in a data set. ### 4. Measures of Spread - **Range**: The difference between the highest and lowest values in a data set. - **Variance**: Measures how far each number in the set is from the mean and thus from every other number in the set. - **Standard Deviation**: The square root of the variance, providing a measure of the spread of a distribution of values. ### 5. Probability Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). Understanding probability is essential for inferential statistics and making predictions based on data. ### 6. Sampling and Data Collection - **Population**: The entire group that you want to draw conclusions about. - **Sample**: A subset of the population, selected for the actual study. It’s crucial for the sample to be representative of the population to make accurate inferences. ### 7. Hypothesis Testing This is a method of making decisions or inferences about population parameters based on sample statistics. It involves: - Formulating a null hypothesis (no effect) and an alternative hypothesis (some effect). - Calculating a test statistic based on the sample data. - Using the test statistic to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.

@ f3873798:24b3f2f3

 Nos últimos anos, temos observado um aumento significativo nos casos de ansiedade, estresse e outros transtornos mentais. O ambiente de trabalho, especialmente no mundo cooperativo e corporativo, desempenha um papel central nesse cenário. Mas qual é a relação entre a estrutura do mercado de trabalho moderno e o crescimento dessas questões de saúde mental? O Impacto da Cultura Cooperativa na Saúde Mental  O modelo cooperativo atual valoriza, acima de tudo, a produtividade e o cumprimento de metas rígidas. A exigência por resultados rápidos e desempenho excepcional impõe um ritmo de trabalho desumano, levando muitos profissionais à exaustão física e emocional. A pressão constante para atender expectativas impossíveis cria um ambiente hostil, contribuindo para o aumento de diagnósticos como ansiedade, depressão e burnout. Além disso, a falta de liberdade e flexibilidade no mercado de trabalho faz com que muitos talentos sejam desperdiçados. Profissionais que poderiam inovar e criar novas oportunidades acabam se tornando apenas mais um número em grandes empresas ou no funcionalismo público, muitas vezes por falta de opções. Esse aprisionamento profissional gera frustração, baixa autoestima e até transtornos psicológicos severos. A Evolução das Demandas e a Intensificação da Pressão  Antigamente, a busca por estabilidade em cargos públicos ou em grandes corporações era comum, mas a pressão e a exigência por resultados eram diferentes. Com o avanço da tecnologia e a digitalização dos processos, a demanda por eficiência aumentou exponencialmente. Hoje, a velocidade imposta pelo mercado ultrapassa os limites humanos, tornando o ambiente de trabalho ainda mais opressor. Essa realidade não apenas compromete a saúde mental dos profissionais, mas também reflete no comportamento social. O estresse crônico e a frustração acumulada podem levar a episódios de agressividade, intolerância e impaciência, impactando diretamente a convivência em sociedade. O crescimento de casos de violência no trânsito, agressões em ambientes de atendimento e até mesmo crimes por motivos fúteis pode estar ligado a esse fenômeno. O Caminho para um Mercado de Trabalho Mais Saudável  Para minimizar esses impactos, é fundamental promover maior liberdade econômica e oportunidades para pequenos empreendedores. Reduzir a dependência de grandes empresas e cooperativas pode permitir que mais pessoas encontrem satisfação profissional e desenvolvam suas vocações sem a pressão excessiva por metas irreais. Empreendimentos menores tendem a oferecer um ambiente de trabalho mais humanizado, onde as metas são ajustadas conforme a capacidade de produção de cada indivíduo. Dessa forma, os profissionais podem atuar de maneira mais saudável e equilibrada, reduzindo os índices de transtornos mentais e promovendo uma sociedade mais harmoniosa.

@ b8851a06:9b120ba1

The digital guillotine has fallen. The Bybit hack wasn’t just a theft—it was a surgical strike exposing the fatal flaw of “crypto” that isn’t Bitcoin. This wasn’t a bug. It was a feature of a system designed to fail. Here’s how North Korea’s Lazarus Group stole $1.5B in ETH, why “decentralized finance” is a joke, and how Bitcoin remains the only exit from this circus. ## I. The Heist: How Centralized “Crypto” Betrayed Its Users ### A. The Multisig Mousetrap (Or: Why You’re Still Using a Bank) Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet used multisig, requiring multiple approvals for transactions. Sounds secure, right? Wrong. • The Con: Hackers didn’t pick the lock; they tricked the keyholders using a UI masking attack. The wallet interface showed “SEND TO BYBIT”, but the smart contract was whispering “SEND TO PYONGYANG.” • Bitcoin Parallel: Bitcoin’s multisig is enforced on hardware, not a website UI. No browser spoofing, no phishing emails—just raw cryptography. Ethereum’s multisig is a vault with a touchscreen PIN pad. Bitcoin’s is a mechanical safe with a key only you hold. Guess which one got robbed? ### B. Smart Contracts: Dumb as a Bag of Hammers The thieves didn’t “hack” Ethereum—they exploited its smart contract complexity. • Bybit’s security depended on a Safe.global contract. Lazarus simply tricked Bybit into approving a malicious upgrade. • Imagine a vending machine that’s programmed to take your money but never give you a soda. That’s Ethereum’s “trustless” tech. Why Bitcoin Wins: Bitcoin doesn’t do “smart contracts” in the Ethereum sense. Its scripting language is deliberately limited—less code, fewer attack vectors. Ethereum is a Lego tower; Bitcoin is a granite slab. One topples, one doesn’t. ## II. The Laundering: Crypto’s Dirty Little Secret ### A. Mixers, Bridges, and the Art of Spycraft Once the ETH was stolen, Lazarus laundered it at lightspeed: 1. Mixers (eXch) – Obfuscating transaction trails. 2. Bridges (Chainflip) – Swapping ETH for Bitcoin because that’s the only exit that matters. Bitcoin Reality Check: Bitcoin’s privacy tools (like CoinJoin) are self-custodial—no third-party mixers. You keep control, not some “decentralized” website waiting to be hacked. Ethereum’s “bridges” are burning rope ladders. Bitcoin’s privacy? An underground tunnel only you control. ### B. The $1.5B Lie: “Decentralized” Exchanges Are a Myth Bybit’s “cold wallet” was on Safe.global—a so-called “decentralized” custodian. Translation? A website with extra steps. • When Safe.global got breached, the private keys were stolen instantly. • “Decentralized” means nothing if your funds depend on one website, one server, one weak link. Bitcoin’s Answer: Self-custody. Hardware wallets. Cold storage. No trusted third parties. Using Safe.global is like hiding your life savings in a gym locker labeled “STEAL ME.” ## III. The Culprits: State-Sponsored Hackers & Crypto’s Original Sin ### A. Lazarus Group: Crypto’s Robin Hood (For Dictators) North Korea’s hackers didn’t break cryptography—they broke people. • Phishing emails disguised as job offers. • Bribes & social engineering targeting insiders. • DeFi governance manipulation (because Proof-of-Stake is just shareholder voting in disguise). Bitcoin’s Shield: No CEO to bribe. No “upgrade buttons” to exploit. No governance tokens to manipulate. Code is law—and Bitcoin’s law is written in stone. Ethereum’s security model is “trust us.” Bitcoin’s is “verify.” ### B. The $3B Elephant: Altcoins Fund Dictators Since 2017, Lazarus has stolen $3B+ in crypto, funding North Korea’s missile program. Why? Because Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are built on Proof-of-Stake (PoS)—which centralizes power in the hands of a few rich validators. • Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work: Miners secure the network through energy-backed cryptography. • Altcoins’ Proof-of-Stake: Security is dictated by who owns the most tokens. Proof-of-Stake secures oligarchs. Proof-of-Work secures money. That’s why Lazarus can drain altcoin treasuries but hasn’t touched Bitcoin’s network. ## IV. Bybit’s Survival: A Centralized Circus ### A. The Bailout: Banks 2.0 Bybit took bridge loans from “undisclosed partners” (read: Wall Street vultures). • Just like a traditional bank, Bybit printed liquidity out of thin air to stay solvent. • If that sounds familiar, it’s because crypto exchanges are just banks in hoodies. Bitcoin Contrast: No loans. No bailouts. No “trust.” Just 21 million coins, mathematically secured. Bybit’s solvency is a confidence trick. Bitcoin’s solvency is math. ### B. The Great Withdrawal Panic Within hours, 350,000+ users scrambled to withdraw funds. A digital bank run—except this isn’t a bank. It’s an exchange that pretended to be decentralized. Bitcoin fixes this: your wallet isn’t an IOU. It’s actual money. Bybit = a TikTok influencer promising riches. Bitcoin = the gold in your basement. ## V. The Fallout: Regulators vs Reality ### A. ETH’s 8% Crash vs Bitcoin’s Unshakable Base Ethereum tanked because it’s a tech stock, not money. Bitcoin? Dropped 2% and stabilized. No CEO, no headquarters, no attack surface. ### B. The Regulatory Trap Now the bureaucrats come in demanding: 1. Wallet audits (they don’t understand public ledgers). 2. Mixer bans (criminalizing privacy). 3. KYC everything (turning crypto into a surveillance state). Bitcoin’s Rebellion: You can’t audit what’s already transparent. You can’t ban what’s unstoppable. ## VI. Conclusion: Burn the Altcoins, Stack the Sats The Bybit hack isn’t a crypto problem. It’s an altcoin problem. Ethereum’s smart contracts, DeFi bridges, and “decentralized” wallets are Swiss cheese for hackers. Bitcoin? A titanium vault. The Only Lessons That Matter: ✅ Multisig isn’t enough unless it’s Bitcoin’s hardware-enforced version. ✅ Complexity kills—every altcoin “innovation” is a security risk waiting to happen. Lazarus Group won this round because “crypto” ignored Bitcoin’s design. The solution isn’t better regulations—it’s better money. Burn the tokens. Unplug the servers. Bitcoin is the exit. Take your money off exchanges. Be sovereign.

@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2

Trumps Antrittsrede, seine Präsidentenerlasse, Personalentscheidungen und Amtshandlungen hatten schon in kurzer Zeit die Konturen der künftigen US-Außenpolitik erkennen lassen. Aber in München sprach der Vizepräsident auf einer bedeutenden Konferenz direkt zu den Europäern, den “Partnern” und “Verbündeten”. Und was er ihnen in aller Deutlichkeit mitteilte, war nichts anderes als eine 180-Grad Kehrtwende zur Politik der Vorgänger-Regierung. Die Botschaft war kein Vorschlag, sondern eine Ansage, die Inhalte sind inzwischen hinlänglich bekannt. Obwohl die Rede erwartungsgemäß mehr als reichlich kommentiert wurde, möchte ich noch einige Aspekte ergänzen, die ich bisher in den Kommentaren vermisst habe.  Im November 1988 wurde die Auslieferung der sowjetischen Zeitschrift “Sputnik” in der DDR gestoppt, was einem Verbot gleichkam. Der Anlaß waren kritische Betrachtungen über Stalin und Berichte über den Hitler-Stalin-Pakt, den es laut DDR-Geschichtsschreibung nicht gab. Es war eine Zensur von Informationen aus dem Land des “großen Bruders”, der Führungsmacht der sozialistischen Welt. Das Diktum “von der Sowjetunion lernen heißt siegen lernen” galt erkennbar nicht mehr. Das war zugleich der Höhepunkt einer ideologischen Entfremdung die 1986 begonnen hatte, als Gorbatschow “Glasnost” (Offenheit) und “Perestroika” (Reformen) einforderte, welche von der vergreisten DDR-Führung als unnötig und gefährlich abgelehnt wurden. Gorbatschow hatte richtig erkannt, dass die sozialistischen Staaten ökonomisch und gesellschaftlich gescheitert waren und ohne Reformen nicht überleben würden. Die Einsicht kam aber zu spät, die DDR kollabierte bereits ein Jahr später an ihrem Reformstau, die UdSSR Ende 1991 trotz der begonnenen Reformversuche.   Die Parallelen sind unverkennbar, eklatante politische Fehler (u.a. Euro seit 2009 und Migration seit 2015) haben die EU-Staaten zunächst zu Sanierungsfällen gemacht, durch die Corona-Politik zu Insolvenzkandidaten. Der Rubikon ist längst überschritten, die Schönwetter-Union ist nicht mehr zu retten. Den Amerikanern ist das klar, daher sind die Reform-Appelle von Vance wohl eher seiner Höflichkeit zuzurechnen. Für die US-Regierung ist die EU bereits jetzt nicht mehr existent, Verträge werden wieder direkt mit den Mitglieds-Staaten getroffen, und in den Ukraine-Verhandlungen ist kein Platz am Verhandlungstisch. Die Themenbereiche bei den Gesprächen in Riad haben aber auch gezeigt, dass Amerikaner und Russen in global-strategischen Dimensionen denken, die Ukraine ist zurecht nur ein Randthema. Die aktuelle Rhetorik europäischer Politiker hingegen ist niveaulos und kleinkariert, man spielt in der 2. Liga, die EU hat sich selbst vom Akteur zum Objekt degradiert.  Was bedeutet das für unsere Zukunft? Und was ist von der neuen US-Führung zu erwarten? Die unsäglichen Diskussionen darüber ob nun Trump und Musk gut oder böse sind, vernebelt nur eine klare Tatsache. Die EU hat keinen Rückhalt mehr vom “großen Bruder”, weder durch die NATO in Sachen Ukraine, noch durch Zensur von Systemkritikern (USAID, BigTech). Letzteres führt zu drei fundamentalen Veränderungen.\ \ 1\. Das Narrativ von den “westlichen Werten” ist tot. Auf diesem Axiom der USA basierte die gesamte Propaganda-Maschine, es wurde zur Religion. Nun versuchen gerade Provinzpolitiker wie Pistorius und Habeck mit beschränkten rhetorischen Mitteln zu definieren was “westliche Werte” ohne die USA sind, was mehr für Begeisterung bei Satirikern beiträgt als zur Überzeugung von Tagesschau-Anhängern.\ \ 2\. Die Deutungshoheit geht verloren weil immer mehr Publizisten ihr Fähnchen in den sich drehenden Wind hängen, sofern sie noch von Leser-Abos und Werbekunden abhängig sind. Die einsetzende Kakophonie verwirrt die Masse der schlichten Medien-Konsumenten, die über Jahrzehnte auf Nachrichten-Konformität dressiert worden sind. \ \ 3\. Weniger Zensur in den sozialen Medien verschafft den kritischen Stimmen mehr Reichweite, “bedrohliche” Meinungsvielfalt entsteht. Leider können die meisten Kritiker aber nur kritisieren, was uns zurück in die Zeiten des Sputnik-Verbots führt.  Die DDR-Opposition hat beim Abriss der DDR mitgewirkt, über diese Rolle ist sie aber nie hinaus gekommen. Als die Mauer gefallen war und es um die Neugestaltung ging, hat sie kläglich versagt. Dem Großteil der heutigen Opposition droht das selbe Schicksal, weil sie keinen Plan für die Stunde Null hat. Bei Tauwetter darf man nicht mehr über den Winter diskutieren, sondern über das Bestellen der Felder. Wer die Saat ausbringt, entscheidet über die Ernte. Den Kollaps betreffend ist nur noch der Zeitpunkt unklar, für den Zeitraum danach jedoch alles. Wenn wir uns eine Bürgergesellschaft wünschen, dann müssen wir jetzt als Bürger aktiv werden, also DU, Leser. Spende für Pareto, oder für kritische Autoren und Aktivisten. Mach Dir Gedanken über die Zukunft und publiziere sie, hier auf Pareto, wir fördern den Bürger-Journalismus. Schließe Dich einem Projekt an, leiste einen Beitrag und gestalte die Zukunft. Macht wird nicht verteilt, Macht muss man sich erkämpfen.\ \ **“Nur der verdient sich Freiheit wie das Leben, der täglich sie erobern muß.”** Goethe, Faust Teil 2 **Spenden für Pareto:** <https://geyser.fund/project/pareto> **Pareto Landing Page:** <https://pareto.space>&#x20; **Pareto Marktplatz:** <https://pareto.space/read>&#x20;

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has always been known for its volatility. This digital asset has seen dramatic fluctuations in price, attracting investors and speculators alike. Understanding these price movements is crucial for anyone involved in the crypto market. The journey of Bitcoin from a niche digital token to a mainstream financial asset has been marked by periods of rapid growth and sudden declines. This volatility is not just a source of risk, but also of potential opportunity for traders and investors. The factors driving these fluctuations range from regulatory news, technological advancements, to broader economic factors. Bitcoin's decentralized nature adds to its unpredictability, as it operates independently of a central bank or government. **Table of Contents** - The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt - Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis - The Role of Short-Term Holders - Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed ( … - The Dynamics of Profit-Taking - Actions by Miners and Whales - Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook - Conclusion - FAQs **The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt** In a recent surge, Bitcoin's value soared past the $44,000 mark, only to encounter a significant resistance level near $45,000. This resistance led to a notable decline in its price. The question on everyone's mind is: what caused this sudden halt in Bitcoin's otherwise steady climb? This rally, like many in Bitcoin's past, was driven by a mix of investor optimism, favorable market conditions, and increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrency. However, the resistance at $45,000 proved to be a turning point, sparking a wave of sell-offs and profit-taking. This price behavior is a classic example of the market's psychological dynamics, where key resistance levels can lead to significant shifts in investor behavior. The rapid change from a bullish to a bearish market sentiment at this juncture underscores the fragile and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market. **Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis** CryptoQuant, a renowned market analytics platform, offers valuable insights into this phenomenon. An analyst from CryptoQuant, Yonsei, conducted a detailed analysis of on-chain data to unravel the mystery behind Bitcoin's recent price behavior. This analysis goes beyond surface-level market trends, delving into the intricate movements of Bitcoin across various wallets and exchanges. By examining metrics such as fund flows, wallet activities, and transaction patterns, CryptoQuant provides a more nuanced understanding of what drives Bitcoin's price changes. Yonsei's analysis, in particular, sheds light on the behavior of different investor cohorts, revealing how their actions collectively impact the market. This kind of deep-dive analysis is essential for anyone looking to understand the often opaque mechanisms of cryptocurrency markets. **The Role of Short-Term Holders** The analysis revealed that short-term holders, particularly those who had invested in Bitcoin for a period ranging from 6 to 18 months, started to realize their profits as soon as Bitcoin broke through the $40,000 resistance level. This profit-taking was a primary factor in the subsequent price retraction. These short-term holders, often more sensitive to market fluctuations, tend to react quickly to price changes, looking to capitalize on short-term gains. Their collective actions can create significant market movements, as seen in this instance. The behavior of these investors is often influenced by news events, market sentiment, and technical indicators. In this case, the rapid rise in Bitcoin's price likely triggered a psychological response to lock in profits, leading to a cascade of sell orders. Understanding the motivations and behaviors of these short-term holders is crucial for predicting short-term market movements in the volatile world of cryptocurrency. **Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)** A critical metric in this analysis is the Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This metric assesses the movement of long-held Bitcoins, providing insights into the behavior of long-term investors. An increase in Binary CDD indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, has been mobilized, suggesting a sell-off by long-term holders. This metric is particularly important as it highlights the actions of the most steadfast part of the market - those who have held Bitcoin through various cycles. When these long-term holders start moving their coins, it often signals a significant shift in market sentiment. The CDD metric thus serves as a barometer for the conviction of Bitcoin's long-term investor base. A high CDD can indicate a loss of confidence among these investors, or a belief that the market has reached a peak. Conversely, a low CDD suggests that long-term holders are not yet ready to sell, indicating continued confidence in the market's future. **The Dynamics of Profit-Taking** The CryptoQuant analysis further highlighted that a majority of Bitcoin holders were in profit, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio remaining above one. This indicated that about 90% of Bitcoin holders were profiting, which naturally led to a trend of profit-taking. This phenomenon is a key aspect of market cycles in cryptocurrencies. When a large portion of investors are in profit, especially after a significant price rally, the market often sees a wave of selling as investors look to cash in on their gains. This behavior is compounded by psychological factors, such as fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), which can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment. Additionally, the profit-taking trend is influenced by external factors such as global economic conditions, regulatory news, and technological developments within the blockchain space. These factors can either reinforce the confidence of investors, leading to a hold strategy, or trigger a sell-off in anticipation of a market downturn. **Actions by Miners and Whales** Another interesting aspect of the analysis was the behavior of Bitcoin miners and whales (large-scale holders). These groups also contributed to the selling pressure. Miners, in particular, sold their assets at high-profit margins when Bitcoin reached its peak, adding to the downward pressure on its price. The actions of miners are crucial to understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics, as they are not only investors but also the producers of new Bitcoins. Their decision to sell or hold can significantly impact the supply of Bitcoin in the market. Whales, or large-scale holders, have a similar impact due to the sheer volume of their transactions. Their trades can lead to substantial market movements, creating waves that affect smaller investors. The behavior of these whales often reflects a more strategic approach to the market, influenced by long-term trends and broader market analysis. Their actions can serve as indicators for future market movements, making their behavior a key focus for analysts and investors alike. **Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook** Despite the recent price drop, the overall market sentiment remains positive. The bear market seems to be in the past, and liquidity conditions in the crypto market are improving. However, Bitcoin currently hovers around the $41,000 mark, a slight decrease from its recent high. This current state reflects the ever-changing nature of the cryptocurrency market, where investor sentiment can shift rapidly. The future outlook for Bitcoin remains a topic of much debate among experts. Some predict continued growth as institutional adoption increases and blockchain technology becomes more integrated into mainstream finance. Others caution about potential regulatory clampdowns and the volatile nature of the market. What remains clear is that Bitcoin continues to be a key player in the financial world, with its price movements being a barometer for the health and sentiment of the broader cryptocurrency market. **Conclusion** Bitcoin's market behavior, as analyzed by CryptoQuant, offers a complex picture of various factors at play. The interplay between short-term and long-term holders, the strategic moves of miners and whales, and the overall market sentiment all contribute to the price dynamics of this digital currency. Understanding these elements is key for investors and enthusiasts who wish to navigate the volatile waters of Bitcoin's market. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, keeping a close eye on these trends and analyses will be crucial for making informed decisions in the world of cryptocurrency. The insights provided by platforms like CryptoQuant are invaluable in this regard, offering a deeper understanding of the market forces at work. **FAQs** **What caused the recent halt in Bitcoin's price rally?** The halt in Bitcoin's price rally, after reaching near $45,000, was primarily due to profit-taking by short-term holders and investors who had held Bitcoin for 6-18 months, as revealed by CryptoQuant's analysis. **What is Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)?** Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is a metric that measures the movement of long-held Bitcoins. It indicates the amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, that has been mobilized or sold. **How do miners and whales influence Bitcoin's price?** Miners and whales (large-scale holders) significantly influence Bitcoin's price through their actions. When they sell their holdings, especially during peak prices, they add to the market's selling pressure, potentially leading to price drops. **What does a high Bitcoin Binary CDD indicate?** A high Bitcoin Binary CDD suggests that a large amount of long-held Bitcoin is being sold, which can be a sign of long-term holders losing confidence or deciding to take profits. **Is the current market sentiment for Bitcoin positive or negative?** Despite recent price fluctuations, the overall market sentiment for Bitcoin remains cautiously positive, with improvements in market liquidity and interest from institutional investors. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ 1739d937:3e3136ef

We've been busy. In my last update, I shared that I was sure MLS on Nostr was going to work and shared an early demo of the app. What a long time ago that seems now. The big news is that White Noise is no longer just a demo. It's a real app. You can [download the alpha release](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/releases) and run it for yourself on MacOS, Linux, or Android. iOS TestFlight is coming soon. Keep in mind that it's still very much alpha software; a lot is changing and I wouldn't recommend using it for anything serious quite yet. We've been busy. In my last update, I shared that I was sure MLS on Nostr was going to work and shared an early demo of the app. What a long time ago that seems now. ## Vision Before we get to the detailed project updates, I wanted to share a bit of my vision for White Noise. More and more; freedom of speech, freedom of association, and privacy are under attack. Just this week, Apple was forced to remove their iCloud advanced encryption feature for all UK citizens because the UK government demanded that Apple build a backdoor to allow access to customer data. The EU continues to push "Chat Control" legislation that would force companies to remove end-to-end encryption from their platforms. And governments across the world are enforcing draconian "hate speech" laws that criminalize speech that offends or upsets. The freedom to express ourselves and discuss difficult topics is a critical precondition for maintaining a healthy society. Without the ability to assert ideas and argue their merits vigorously we have no way of making progress or creating a civil society based on shared values and goals. Ironically, the very laws and regulations that many western governments are enforcing to "protect" us are eroding and destroying the most free and innovative societies in history. White Noise is to built to protect our freedom to gather, to express ourselves, and to discuss difficult topics. It's free and open source; anyone can fork the code and we'll never charge money to use it. It runs on a free and open source protocol; your identity and social graph is yours to own and control. You don't have to trust us with your data, everything is end-to-end encrypted and metadata is next to non-existent. We don't even run any servers, so government data requests will forever fall on deaf ears. We want to build the fastest, most secure and private, and the most usable messenger in the world. Whether you want to use it to plan a family BBQ or overthrow a tyrant, White Noise should give you the tools you need to make it happen. If you find this compelling and want to help, please consider contributing to the project or donating. ## Progress Alright, let's talk about where we're at with the project. ### Current functionality - Multiple accounts. You can login, or create, many different Nostr accounts in the app. - Search your nostr contact list, search for users you don't follow, or add contacts using an npub or hex public key. - Create DM groups. Right now, you can only create chats with a single other user. Under the hood, these DMs are actually groups, I just haven't added the UI for adding/removing users and managing the group. - Send messages, reply to messages, and add reactions. As you would expect from a messenging app. - View group information. - Settings that allows you to manage your accounts, relays, and other app settings. ### Upcoming - An amazing hackathon group from [Bitcoin++ in Brasil](https://btcplusplus.dev/conf/floripa) has recently [added NWC](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/pull/89) (nostr wallet connect) support to the app. Paste lightning invoices into chats and they'll become QR codes that you can scan or pay them with a single click in the conversation! This will be in the next release. - Add support for encrypted media in chats using [Blossom](https://github.com/hzrd149/blossom/tree/master). We'll start with images, but plan to add video, audio messages, and documents soon. - Groups with more than two users. We'll add the ability to add/remove users and manage the group. This will also include some upgrades to further improve the forward secrecy of group chats. - iOS TestFlight. Gated app stores suck. We'll get White Noise on iOS into TestFlight as soon as possible. ## Links - [The repo](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise) - [Releases](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/releases) - [Previous updates](https://highlighter.com/jeffg.fyi)

@ 6734e11d:c7e34e8f

...damit wir weiter recht haben und so weitermachen können wie bisher, die verordnete Omertà eingehalten wird zu Grundrechten, Notverordnungen, Pandemiesimulationen, Energieversorgung, Deindustrialisierung, kalte und echte Enteigung, Umverteilung, Freiluft- und Digitalgefängnis, Blockwartnachbarn... Alles andere wäre äußerst unangenehm, wie das Aufplatzen einer großen Eiterblase und müsste dann wieder mit Exekutive, Justiz, Notverordnungen, neuen Strafrechtsparagraphen, Verschärfung der Strafprozessordnung, echte Änderung des Grundgesetzes, Überwachung, Totalzensur, Parteiverboten, Regimechanges und Krieg unterbunden werden. Idee und Meme sind wieder von der Schwurbel Oase <https://t.me/schwurbel_oase/2318>

@ 46fcbe30:6bd8ce4d

[This post by Eric Weiss](https://x.com/Eric_BIGfund/status/1893001303845937246) inspired me to try it out. After all, I have plaid around with [ppq.ai - pay per query](https://ppq.ai) before. Using this script: ```bash #!/bin/bash models=(gpt-4o grok-2 qwq-32b-preview deepseek-r1 gemini-2.0-flash-exp dolphin-mixtral-8x22b claude-3.5-sonnet deepseek-chat llama-3.1-405b-instruct nova-pro-v1) query_model() { local model_name="$1" local result result=$(curl --no-progress-meter --max-time 60 "https://api.ppq.ai/chat/completions" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $ppqKey" \ -d '{"model": "'"$model_name"'","messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Choose one asset to own over the next 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. Reply only with a comma separated list of assets."}]}') if jq -e '.choices[0].message.content' <<< "$result" > /dev/null 2>&1; then local content=$(jq -r '.choices[0].message.content' <<< "$result") local model=$(jq -r '.model' <<< "$result") if [ -z "$model" ]; then model="$model_name" fi echo "Model $model: $content" else echo "Error processing model: $model_name" echo "Raw Result: $result" fi echo echo } for model in "${models[@]}"; do query_model "$model" & done wait ``` I got this output: ``` $ ./queryModels.sh Model openrouter/amazon/nova-pro-v1: Gold, Growth Stocks, Real Estate, Dividend-Paying Stocks Model openrouter/x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212: 1 year: Cash 3 years: Bonds 5 years: Stocks 10 years: Real Estate Model gemini-2.0-flash-exp: Bitcoin, Index Fund, Real Estate, Index Fund Model meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct: Cash, Stocks, Real Estate, Stocks Model openrouter/cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b: Gold, Apple Inc. stock, Tesla Inc. stock, real estate Model claude-3-5-sonnet-v2: Bitcoin, Amazon stock, S&P 500 index fund, S&P 500 index fund Model gpt-4o-2024-08-06: S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF, S&P 500 ETF Model openrouter/deepseek/deepseek-chat: Bitcoin, S&P 500 ETF, Gold, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Model openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview: As an AI language model, I don't have personal opinions or the ability to make financial decisions. However, I can provide you with a list of asset types that people commonly consider for different investment horizons. Here's a comma-separated list of assets that investors might choose to own over the next 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years: High-Yield Savings Accounts, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), Money Market Funds, Government Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Stocks, Index Funds, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Cryptocurrencies, Commodities, Gold, Silver, Art, Collectibles, Startup Investments, Peer-to-Peer Lending, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Municipal Bonds, International Stocks, Emerging Market Funds, Green Bonds, Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) Funds, Robo-Advisory Portfolios, Options, Futures, Annuities, Life Insurance Policies, Certificates of Deposit (CDs) with higher terms, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), Timberland, Farmland, Infrastructure Funds, Private Equity, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Bonds, Digital Real Estate, and Virtual Currencies. Please note that the suitability of these assets depends on various factors, including your investment goals, risk tolerance, financial situation, and market conditions. It's essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. curl: (28) Operation timed out after 60001 milliseconds with 0 bytes received Model deepseek-r1: ``` Brought into a table format: | Model | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | amazon/nova-pro-v1 | Gold | Growth Stocks | Real Estate | Dividend-Paying Stocks | | x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212 | Cash | Bonds | Stocks | Real Estate | | gemini-2.0-flash-exp | **Bitcoin** | Index Fund | Real Estate | Index Fund | | meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct | Cash | Stocks | Real Estate | Stocks | | cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b | Gold | Apple Inc. stock | Tesla Inc. stock | real estate | | claude-3-5-sonnet-v2 | **Bitcoin** | Amazon stock | S&P 500 index fund | S&P 500 index fund | | gpt-4o-2024-08-06 | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 ETF | | deepseek/deepseek-chat | **Bitcoin** | S&P 500 ETF | Gold | Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) | qwen/qwq-32b-preview returned garbage. deepseek-r1 returned nothing. For the second question I used "What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Bitcoin for a 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years investment horizon. Reply only with a comma separated list of percentage allocations." ``` Model gpt-4o-2024-05-13: 0.5, 3, 5, 10 Model gemini-2.0-flash-exp: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% Model claude-3-5-sonnet-v2: 1%, 3%, 5%, 10% Model openrouter/x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212: 1 year: 2%, 3 years: 5%, 5 years: 10%, 10 years: 15% Model openrouter/amazon/nova-pro-v1: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% Model openrouter/deepseek/deepseek-chat: 1, 3, 5, 10 Model openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview: I'm sorry, but as an AI language model, I cannot provide specific investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider individual financial circumstances before making any investment decisions. Additionally, the optimal portfolio allocation can vary based on factors such as risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions. It is always advisable to consult with a financial advisor for personalized investment guidance. Model meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct: I must advise that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and crypto investments carry significant risks. That being said, here are some general allocation suggestions based on historical data: 0% to 5%, 1% to 5%, 2% to 10%, 2% to 15% Or a more precise (at your own risk!): 1.4%, 2.7%, 3.8%, 6.2% Please keep in mind these are not personalized investment advice. It is essential to assess your personal financial situation and risk tolerance before investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Model openrouter/cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b: Based on historical data and assuming a continuous investment horizon, I would recommend the following percentage allocations to Bitcoin: 1-year: 15%, 3-years: 10%, 5-years: 7.5%, 10-years: 5%. Model deepseek/deepseek-r1: 5%,10%,15%,20% ``` Again in table form: | Model | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | gpt-4o-2024-05-13 | 0.5% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | gemini-2.0-flash-exp | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | | claude-3-5-sonnet-v2 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | x-ai/grok-2-vision-1212 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | | amazon/nova-pro-v1 | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | | deepseek/deepseek-chat | 1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | | meta-llama/llama-3.1-405b-instruct | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | cognitivecomputations/dolphin-mixtral-8x22b | 15% | 10% | 7.5% | 5% | | deepseek/deepseek-r1 | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | openrouter/qwen/qwq-32b-preview returned garbage. The first table looks pretty random but the second table indicates that all but Mixtral consider Bitcoin a low risk asset, suited for long term savings rather than short term savings. I could not at all reproduce Eric's findings. https://i.nostr.build/ihsk1lBnZCQemmQb.png

@ fc481c65:e280e7ba

A matrix is a rectangular array of numbers, symbols, or expressions, arranged in rows and columns. The individual items in a matrix are called its elements or entries. They are foundational element in many areas of #Mathematics and #Engineering including #Electronics #Computer #Science #Finances and more. ### Notation and Terms - **Dimensions**: The size of a matrix is defined by its number of rows and columns and is often referred to as `m x n`, where `m` is the number of rows and `n` is the number of columns. - **Square Matrix**: A matrix with the same number of rows and columns (`n x n`). - **Diagonal Matrix**: A square matrix where all elements off the main diagonal are zero. - **Identity Matrix**: A diagonal matrix where all the elements on the main diagonal are 1. It's denoted as `I`. - **Zero Matrix**: A matrix all of whose entries are zero. ### Basic Matrix Operations 1. **Addition and Subtraction** - Matrices must be of the same dimensions to be added or subtracted. - Add or subtract corresponding elements. - Example: - `$$\begin{bmatrix}1 & 2 \\3 & 4\end{bmatrix}+\begin{bmatrix}5 & 6 \\7 & 8\end{bmatrix}=\begin{bmatrix}6 & 8 \\10 & 12\end{bmatrix}$$` 2. **Scalar Multiplication** - Multiply every element of a matrix by a scalar (a single number). - Example: - `$$ 2 \times \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 \\ 3 & 4 \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 4 \\ 6 & 8 \end{bmatrix} $$` 3. **Matrix Multiplication** - The number of columns in the first matrix must be equal to the number of rows in the second matrix. - The product of an `m x n` matrix and an `n x p` matrix is an `m x p` matrix. - Multiply rows by columns, summing the products of the corresponding elements. - Example: - `$$ \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 \\ 3 & 4 \end{bmatrix} \times \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 0 \\ 1 & 2 \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} (1 \times 2 + 2 \times 1) & (1 \times 0 + 2 \times 2) \\ (3 \times 2 + 4 \times 1) & (3 \times 0 + 4 \times 2) \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 4 & 4 \\ 10 & 8 \end{bmatrix} $$` ### Special Matrix Operations 1. **Determinant** - Only for square matrices. - A scalar value that can be computed from the elements of a square matrix and encodes certain properties of the matrix. - Example for a 2x2 matrix: - `$$ \text{det} \begin{bmatrix} a & b \\ c & d \end{bmatrix} = ad - bc $$` 2. **Inverse** - Only for square matrices. - The matrix that, when multiplied by the original matrix, results in the identity matrix. - Not all matrices have inverses; a matrix must be "nonsingular" to have an inverse. ### Practical Applications - **Solving Systems of Linear Equations** - Matrices are used to represent and solve systems of linear equations using methods like Gaussian elimination. `$$X=A^{-1}\times B$$` - **Transformations in Computer Graphics** - Matrix multiplication is used to perform geometric transformations such as rotations, translations, and scaling. `$$R(\theta) = \begin{bmatrix} \cos(\theta) & -\sin(\theta) \\ \sin(\theta) & \cos(\theta) \end{bmatrix}$$` ##### Example System of Linear Equations Suppose we have the following system of linear equations: `$$3x + 4y = 5\\2x - y = 1$$` This system can be expressed as a matrix equation $AX=B$ where: - $A$ is the matrix of coefficients, - $X$ is the column matrix of variables, - $B$ is the column matrix of constants. * ***Matrix A** (coefficients): `$$\begin{bmatrix} 3 & 4 \\ 2 & -1 \end{bmatrix}$$` * ***Matrix X** (variables): `$$\begin{bmatrix} x \\ y \end{bmatrix}$$` * ***Matrix B** (constants): `$$\begin{bmatrix} 5 \\ 1 \end{bmatrix}$$` Now Organising in Matrix form `$$\begin{bmatrix} 3 & 4 \\ 2 & -1 \end{bmatrix} \begin{bmatrix} x \\ y \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 5 \\ 1 \end{bmatrix}$$` ##### Solving the Equation To solve for $X$, we can calculate the inverse of A (provided A is invertible) and then multiply it by B: `$$X=A^{-1}\times B$$` ## Matrices with SymPy ```python from sympy import Matrix, symbols # Define symbols x, y, z = symbols('x y z') # Define a 2x2 matrix A = Matrix([[1, 2], [3, 4]]) print("Matrix A:") print(A) # Define a 3x3 matrix with symbolic elements B = Matrix([[x, y, z], [y, z, x], [z, x, y]]) print("\nMatrix B:") print(B) # Define two matrices of the same size C = Matrix([[5, 6], [7, 8]]) D = Matrix([[1, 1], [1, 1]]) # Addition E = C + D print("\nMatrix Addition (C + D):") print(E) # Subtraction F = C - D print("\nMatrix Subtraction (C - D):") print(F) # Scalar multiplication G = 2 * A print("\nScalar Multiplication (2 * A):") print(G) # Matrix multiplication H = A * C print("\nMatrix Multiplication (A * C):") print(H) # Determinant of a matrix det_A = A.det() print("\nDeterminant of Matrix A:") print(det_A) # Inverse of a matrix inv_A = A.inv() print("\nInverse of Matrix A:") print(inv_A) # Define the coefficient matrix A and the constant matrix B A_sys = Matrix([[3, 4], [2, -1]]) B_sys = Matrix([5, 1]) # Solve the system AX = B X = A_sys.inv() * B_sys print("\nSolution to the system of linear equations:") print(X) # Compute eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a matrix eigenvals = A.eigenvals() eigenvects = A.eigenvects() print("\nEigenvalues of Matrix A:") print(eigenvals) print("\nEigenvectors of Matrix A:") print(eigenvects) ``` ## References * [Dear linear algebra students, This is what matrices (and matrix manipulation) really look like](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4csuTO7UTMo) * [Essence of linear algebra](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZHQObOWTQDPD3MizzM2xVFitgF8hE_ab) * [The Applications of Matrices | What I wish my teachers told me way earlier](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rowWM-MijXU) * [Inverse of 2x2 Matrix](https://www.cuemath.com/algebra/inverse-of-2x2-matrix/) * [Matrices Tutorial](https://www.cuemath.com/algebra/solve-matrices/)

@ 6e0ea5d6:0327f353

"Malcolm Forbes recounts that a lady, wearing a faded cotton dress, and her husband, dressed in an old handmade suit, stepped off a train in Boston, USA, and timidly made their way to the office of the president of Harvard University. They had come from Palo Alto, California, and had not scheduled an appointment. The secretary, at a glance, thought that those two, looking like country bumpkins, had no business at Harvard. — We want to speak with the president — the man said in a low voice. — He will be busy all day — the secretary replied curtly. — We will wait. The secretary ignored them for hours, hoping the couple would finally give up and leave. But they stayed there, and the secretary, somewhat frustrated, decided to bother the president, although she hated doing that. — If you speak with them for just a few minutes, maybe they will decide to go away — she said. The president sighed in irritation but agreed. Someone of his importance did not have time to meet people like that, but he hated faded dresses and tattered suits in his office. With a stern face, he went to the couple. — We had a son who studied at Harvard for a year — the woman said. — He loved Harvard and was very happy here, but a year ago he died in an accident, and we would like to erect a monument in his honor somewhere on campus. — My lady — said the president rudely —, we cannot erect a statue for every person who studied at Harvard and died; if we did, this place would look like a cemetery. — Oh, no — the lady quickly replied. — We do not want to erect a statue. We would like to donate a building to Harvard. The president looked at the woman's faded dress and her husband's old suit and exclaimed: — A building! Do you have even the faintest idea of how much a building costs? We have more than seven and a half million dollars' worth of buildings here at Harvard. The lady was silent for a moment, then said to her husband: — If that’s all it costs to found a university, why don’t we have our own? The husband agreed. The couple, Leland Stanford, stood up and left, leaving the president confused. Traveling back to Palo Alto, California, they established there Stanford University, the second-largest in the world, in honor of their son, a former Harvard student." Text extracted from: "Mileumlivros - Stories that Teach Values." Thank you for reading, my friend! If this message helped you in any way, consider leaving your glass “🥃” as a token of appreciation. A toast to our family!

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

In 2021, El Salvador embarked on an unprecedented financial experiment under President Nayib Bukele's leadership by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender. This decision was not only groundbreaking but also positioned the small Central American nation as a pioneer in the global financial landscape. The move was seen as a step towards modernizing the country's financial system and making it more inclusive and forward-thinking. It was a daring venture into uncharted territory, signaling El Salvador's willingness to embrace technological innovation and challenge traditional economic models. The decision was met with a mix of admiration and skepticism globally, as it represented a significant departure from conventional monetary policy and raised questions about the future of digital currencies in mainstream finance. **Table of Contents** - The Genesis of the Bitcoin Law - Implementation and Challenges - Economic Impacts and International Response - Bukele's Vision and Controversies - The Future of Bitcoin in El Salvador - Conclusion - FAQs **The Genesis of the Bitcoin Law** The journey to adopting Bitcoin as legal tender was marked by the introduction of the Bitcoin Law, a bold legislative move by President Bukele's administration. This law required all businesses to accept Bitcoin in addition to the US dollar, which had been El Salvador's official currency for two decades. The law aimed to democratize financial access, especially for the 70% of Salvadorans who did not have bank accounts and relied heavily on cash transactions. It also sought to reduce remittance costs for millions of Salvadorans living abroad, who annually send billions of dollars back home. The Bitcoin Law was a part of Bukele's broader strategy to reposition El Salvador as a hub for technological innovation and economic growth. However, the law also raised significant questions about the feasibility and stability of using a highly volatile digital currency in everyday transactions. **Implementation and Challenges** Implementing the Bitcoin Law was a complex endeavor. The government's launch of the “Chivo” digital wallet was intended to facilitate Bitcoin transactions and offer a $30 Bitcoin incentive to users. However, the rollout faced technical glitches and public mistrust in cryptocurrency. Many Salvadorans were unfamiliar with Bitcoin, leading to a steep learning curve and reluctance to transition from traditional cash transactions. Additionally, the fluctuating value of Bitcoin posed a risk to users, particularly those living in poverty or on fixed incomes. The government's efforts to promote Bitcoin adoption also faced international scrutiny, with financial experts questioning the impact on El Salvador's financial stability and its relationship with global financial institutions. **Economic Impacts and International Response** The economic impact of Bitcoin's adoption in El Salvador has been a subject of intense debate. On one hand, it has attracted significant attention from the global cryptocurrency community, positioning the country as a potential hub for digital finance. On the other hand, the move has been met with caution and criticism from international financial institutions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for instance, expressed concern over the potential risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility and its implications for financial stability, governance, and consumer protection. The fluctuating value of Bitcoin also posed a challenge for the national budget and financial planning. Despite these concerns, the Bukele administration remained committed to its digital currency strategy, viewing it as a long-term investment in the country's economic future. **Bukele's Vision and Controversies** President Nayib Bukele, a charismatic and controversial leader, has been at the center of El Salvador's Bitcoin experiment. His administration's aggressive push for Bitcoin adoption was part of a broader vision to transform El Salvador into a modern, technologically advanced economy. Bukele's plans included the development of a “Bitcoin City,” funded by Bitcoin-backed bonds, which was envisioned as a tax-free haven for cryptocurrency investors. However, these ambitious projects have not been without controversy. Critics have raised concerns about the lack of transparency in the government's Bitcoin transactions and the potential for financial mismanagement. Bukele's autocratic tendencies, including his clashes with the judiciary and the press, have also raised alarms about the democratic governance of these initiatives. **The Future of Bitcoin in El Salvador** As El Salvador continues its journey with Bitcoin, the future of this initiative remains a topic of global interest and speculation. The country is navigating uncharted waters, and its experience will likely serve as a case study for other nations contemplating similar moves. The success of Bitcoin in El Salvador depends on various factors, including technological infrastructure, public education, and global market dynamics. The government's ability to manage the currency's volatility and integrate it into the broader economy will be crucial. Additionally, the impact of this initiative on financial inclusion, remittances, and economic growth will be closely watched. El Salvador's experiment with Bitcoin could pave the way for a new era of digital currency adoption, but it also faces significant challenges that could shape its outcome. **Conclusion** El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender under President Bukele's leadership marks a significant moment in the history of digital currency. This bold move has positioned the country as a trailblazer in the cryptocurrency world, but the long-term outcomes of this bold experiment remain uncertain. As El Salvador navigates the challenges and opportunities presented by this initiative, its journey will undoubtedly offer crucial insights into the future intersection of technology, finance, and governance. The world is watching as El Salvador tests the limits of cryptocurrency integration, and its experiences will likely influence global financial policies and the adoption of digital currencies in the years to come. Whether El Salvador's gamble on Bitcoin will pay off or serve as a cautionary tale remains to be seen, but its impact on the global financial landscape is undeniable. **FAQs** **What is the Bitcoin Law in El Salvador?** The Bitcoin Law in El Salvador is a legislation that made Bitcoin a legal tender alongside the US dollar. It mandates all businesses to accept Bitcoin for transactions and was introduced to promote financial inclusion and modernize the economy. **Why did El Salvador adopt Bitcoin as legal tender?** El Salvador adopted Bitcoin to increase financial accessibility for its unbanked population, reduce remittance costs, and position itself as a leader in digital currency innovation. **How does the Chivo wallet work?** The Chivo wallet is a government-backed digital wallet that facilitates Bitcoin transactions in El Salvador. Users receive a $30 Bitcoin bonus for signing up, aiming to encourage the adoption of Bitcoin. **What are the challenges faced by El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin?** Challenges include technical issues with the Chivo wallet, public mistrust and lack of understanding of Bitcoin, and the currency's volatility impacting economic stability. **How has the international community responded to El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption?** The international response has been mixed, with some praising the innovative approach, while institutions like the IMF have expressed concerns over financial stability and consumer protection. **What is Bitcoin City and how is it funded?** Bitcoin City is a proposed development in El Salvador, envisioned as a tax-free zone for cryptocurrency investors. It is planned to be funded by Bitcoin-backed bonds. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

It's Finally here Stackers! It's Friday! We're about to kick off our weekends with some feel good tracks. Let's get the party started. Bring me those Feel Good tracks. Let's get it! Party Rock! https://youtu.be/KQ6zr6kCPj8?si=jyncDuzGh73_PbuP Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/892973

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX remains highly volatile and the overall trend is uncertain. While the long-term trend (Daily chart) is technically still an uptrend, it has *weakened significantly*. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts are in confirmed downtrends. This analysis focuses on identifying key levels where Smart Money might be active and assessing trend strength. **Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (Daily):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9YgoBlr/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/o9YgoBlr/) * **Trend:** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening, *at high risk of reversing*). * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** * Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *becoming less defined and broken*. The recent price action has broken previous lows. * Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but now a significant and deep pullback is underway. * **Liquidity:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range. This is a likely target for Smart Money. * **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high. * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):** * **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block (the large green candle before a significant up-move). This is a *major bearish signal*. * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * Price has *broken below* the 50-period EMA (yellow), a bearish signal. * The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * A *long red bar* indicates strong selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud indicating Downtrend, *No Buy/Sell Signal*. * **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume on the recent decline. * **Candlesticks:** The most recent candlestick is red, confirming selling pressure. * **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area). * **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High. * **Summary:** The Daily chart's uptrend is significantly weakening. The break below the 50 EMA *and* the bullish Order Block, combined with the negative Money Flow and bearish Trend Strength, are all major warning signs. The SSL below is a key area to watch. **(2) TF4H (4-Hour):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/0sGC0Gny/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0sGC0Gny/) * **Trend:** Downtrend. * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). * BOS to the downside. * **Liquidity:** * **SSL:** Below previous lows. * **BSL:** Above previous highs. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** The price was rejected by a bearish order Block * **EMA:** * Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish). * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Green Cloud *But No Buy/Sell Signal.* Indicates Sideway * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high volume. * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. The Money Flow is bearish, price below both EMAs. **(3) TF15 (15-Minute):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/) * **Trend:** Downtrend (but showing *some* signs of consolidation/sideways movement). * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) - but with *slightly* higher lows recently. * BOS to the downside. * **ICT:** * **Order Block** Price could not break up the bearish Order Block. * **EMA:** * The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Alternating red and green, predominantly red. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud (Bearish), *BUT* there's a *bullish divergence* (price made a lower low, but the Trend Strength indicator made a higher low). This is a *potential* early warning sign, but needs *strong confirmation*. * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively high Volume * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is in a downtrend, although with *very tentative* signs of stabilization. The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength is noteworthy, but *not* a buy signal on its own. **Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):** * **Primary Trend (Day):** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening). * **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend. * **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend (Potential Early Reversal Signals). * **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes. * **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15m. Sideway on 4H. * **Strategies:** 1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The conflicting signals and the strong bearish momentum on the shorter timeframes, combined with the weakening Daily chart, make waiting the most prudent approach. Look for: * **Bearish Confirmation:** A decisive break below the recent lows on the 15m and 4H charts, with increasing volume and continued negative Money Flow. This would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * **Bullish Confirmation:** A strong, sustained break above the 15m EMAs, a shift in the 15m Money Flow to green, *and* a bullish signal on the 4H Trend Strength, *and* price holding above EMAs and ideally reclaiming the Daily Order Block. 2. **Short (High Risk):** This aligns with the 4H and 15m downtrends. * **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance). * **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe. * **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then potentially the SSL zones on the 4H and Daily charts). 3. **Buy (Extremely High Risk - Not Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes, including a definitive shift in market structure on the 4H and 15m charts, positive Money Flow, and a clear break above resistance levels. The bullish divergence on the 15m Trend Strength is *not* sufficient on its own. **Key Recommendations:** * **Conflicting Timeframes:** The primary conflict is now resolved toward the downside. The Daily is weakening significantly. * **Money Flow:** Consistently negative, a major bearish factor. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15, Sideways on 4H, but the *divergence* on the 15m is a *potential* early warning. * **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block is a significant bearish development. * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting. * **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings. * **Volume:** Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume. **Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:** * **Day Trade (TF15 focus):** * **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities. * **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside). * **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows). * **Be very cautious:** The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength indicator suggests a potential bounce *could* occur. Don't be aggressive with shorts until this divergence is invalidated. * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure). * **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):** * **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend. * **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection. * **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones). * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart. **SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):** 1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move). *We have identified this in previous analyses.* 2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block (this may or may not happen). 3. **Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern). * **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. * **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red). 4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block. 5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe. **In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, bearish environment in the short-to-medium term. The "Wait & See" approach is strongly recommended for most traders. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk extremely effectively. Buying is not recommended at this time.** **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม BTCUSDT (OKX):** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) ยังคงมีความผันผวนและแนวโน้มที่ไม่ชัดเจน แม้ว่า TF Day จะยังคงแสดงโครงสร้างตลาดที่เป็นขาขึ้น *แต่* ก็เริ่มอ่อนแรงลงอย่างเห็นได้ชัด แนวโน้ม TF4H และ TF15 เป็น Sideway Down **วิเคราะห์ทีละ Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (รายวัน):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/IVA4uegL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/IVA4uegL/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาขึ้น (Uptrend) *อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, มีความเสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม* * **SMC:** * Higher Highs (HH) และ Higher Lows (HL) *เริ่มไม่ชัดเจน, ราคาหลุด Low ก่อนหน้า* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านบน *แต่มีการปรับฐานที่รุนแรง* * **Liquidity:** * มี Sellside Liquidity (SSL) อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า (บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000) * มี Buyside Liquidity (BSL) อยู่เหนือ High เดิม * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาหลุด Order Block ขาขึ้น * **EMA:** * ราคา *หลุด* EMA 50 (สีเหลือง) ลงมาแล้ว * EMA 200 (สีขาว) เป็นแนวรับถัดไป * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * *สีแดงยาว* แสดงถึงแรงขายที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *และไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขายปรากฏ* * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างเบาบาง * **แท่งเทียน:** แท่งเทียนล่าสุดเป็นสีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **แนวรับ:** EMA 200, บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000 (SSL) * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, High เดิม * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาขึ้นอ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, *สัญญาณอันตรายหลายอย่าง*, Money Flow และ Trend Strength เป็นลบ, *หลุด Order Block และ EMA 50* **(2) TF4H (4 ชั่วโมง):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/BP0BDAts/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/BP0BDAts/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** Sideway Down * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **Liquidity:** * มี SSL อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า * มี BSL อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ขาลงได้ และราคากำลังทดสอบ Order Block ขาขึ้น * **EMA:** * ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200 * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * เขียว/ไม่มีสัญญาณ แสดงถึงแนวโน้ม Sideway * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด, Order Block * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, บริเวณ Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้ม Sideway Down, แรงขายมีอิทธิพล **(3) TF15 (15 นาที):** [(https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/)](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7kIbqU0/)  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) *แต่เริ่มเห็นสัญญาณ Sideways* * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) *เริ่มเห็นการยก Low เล็กน้อย* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคา Sideways ใกล้ Order Block * **EMA:** * EMA 50 และ EMA 200 เป็นแนวต้าน * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * แดงสลับเขียว * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *แต่มีสัญญาณ Bullish Divergence (ราคาทำ Lower Low แต่ Trend Strength ยก Low)* * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง, เริ่มพักตัว, Money Flow เริ่มมีความไม่แน่นอน **สรุปภาพรวมและกลยุทธ์ (BTCUSDT):** * **แนวโน้มหลัก (Day):** ขาขึ้น (*อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, เสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม*) * **แนวโน้มรอง (4H):** Sideway Down * **แนวโน้มระยะสั้น (15m):** ขาลง (เริ่มพักตัว, *มี Divergence*) * **Liquidity:** มี SSL ทั้งใน Day, 4H, และ 15m * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** Day/15m เป็นขาลง, 4H Sideway * **กลยุทธ์:** 1. **Wait & See (ดีที่สุด):** รอความชัดเจน 2. **Short (เสี่ยง):** ถ้าไม่สามารถ Breakout EMA/แนวต้านใน TF ใดๆ ได้ หรือเมื่อเกิดสัญญาณ Bearish Continuation 3. **ไม่แนะนำให้ Buy:** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจนมากๆ **Day Trade & การเทรดรายวัน:** * **Day Trade (TF15):** * **Short Bias:** หาจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาเด้งขึ้นไปทดสอบแนวต้าน (EMA, Order Block) * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (Low ล่าสุด) * **ระวัง:** Bullish Divergence ใน Trend Strength * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** * **Swing Trade (TF4H):** * **Short Bias:** รอจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาไม่สามารถผ่านแนวต้าน EMA หรือ Order Block ได้ * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** มีโอกาสสูงที่ราคาจะถูกลากลงไปแตะ SSL * **False Breakouts:** ระวัง * **Volatility:** สูง * **Divergence (TF15):** อาจเป็นสัญญาณเริ่มต้นของการกลับตัว *แต่ต้องรอการยืนยัน* * **Trend Strength (TF4H):** ไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขาย ต้องระวัง **Setup Day Trade แบบ SMC (ตัวอย่าง):** 1. **ระบุ Order Block:** หา Order Block ขาลง (Bearish Order Block) ใน TF15 (แท่งเทียนสีเขียวก่อนที่ราคาจะลงแรง) 2. **รอ Pullback:** รอให้ราคา Pullback ขึ้นไปทดสอบ Order Block นั้น 3. **หา Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** รอ Price Action ปฏิเสธ Order Block (เช่น เกิด Pin Bar, Engulfing) * **Break of Structure:** รอให้ราคา Break โครงสร้างย่อยๆ ใน TF ที่เล็กกว่า (เช่น 1m, 5m) หลังจากที่ทดสอบ Order Block * **Money Flow:** ดู Money Flow ให้เป็นสีแดง 4. **ตั้ง Stop Loss:** เหนือ Order Block 5. **ตั้ง Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (เช่น Low ล่าสุด) หรือ Order Block ขาขึ้น (Bullish Order Block) ใน TF ที่ใหญ่กว่า **คำแนะนำ:** * **ความขัดแย้งของ Timeframes:** มีอยู่ แต่แนวโน้มระยะกลาง-สั้น เป็นลบ * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** เริ่มมี Divergence ใน TF15 * **Order Block TF Day:** หลุด Order Block ขาขึ้นแล้ว * **ถ้าไม่แน่ใจ อย่าเพิ่งเข้าเทรด** **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/892722

@ 4857600b:30b502f4

A new talking point of the left is that it’s no big deal, just simple recording errors for the 20 million people aged 100-360. 🤷‍♀️ And not many of them are collecting benefits anyway. 👌 First of all, the investigation & analysis are in the early stages. How can they possibly know how deep the fraud goes, especially when their leaders are doing everything they can to obstruct any real examination? Second, sure, no worries about only a small number collecting benefits. That’s the ONLY thing social security numbers are used for. 🙄

@ bd32f268:22b33966

Quando estava prestes a entrar para a universidade sentia que a minha vida estava a desenrolar-se plenamente de acordo com os conselhos que havia recebido. Estava focado nos estudos e com a esperança de que esse foco me garantisse um bom trabalho. Com efeito, os estudos abriram algumas portas, no entanto, não posso deixar de assinalar que há outras decisões mais importantes a tomar e que não tiveram o mesmo protagonismo na minha vida. Nessa mesma altura estava a iniciar um relacionamento amoroso, sem ter clara a finalidade desse namoro e o caminho que o mesmo deveria ter seguido. Talvez até me tivessem aconselhado sobre isso, contudo o foco estava mais no trabalho e em usufruir das oportunidades que se apresentaram nessa juventude confortável, na qual contei sempre com o apoio financeiro dos meus pais. Estava, como a maioria à minha volta, a viver uma vida libertina. Quer isto dizer uma vida sem grandes preocupações, a não ser estudar e fazer o suficiente para não reprovar a nenhuma disciplina. O resto é movido muito mais para emoção do que pela razão. Aquilo que considerava prazeroso era bom e o que não o era, era mau. Não tinha propriamente uma ideia clara do que queria criar a longo prazo e portanto estava muito mais focado no presente e em usufruir daquilo que podia no momento. Fazendo uma análise retrospetiva de tudo, não culpo ninguém porque a informação existe para quem a procura, contudo noto aqui apenas o ambiente social e cultural que favorece determinadas decisões em detrimento de outras. O foco tem estado muito mais nos estudos, no trabalho e na fruição dos prazeres que se apresentam aos jovens sem que se pense demasiado no futuro. Neste contexto, e vendo esta fase da vida com outro grau de distanciamento, deixo aqui dez conselhos que julgo essenciais. *Rei Salomão - Gustav Dore* ***1.Focar na decisão mais importante: constituir ou não família.*** A decisão de constituir ou não família é muito mais relevante para a nossa vida do que propriamente a de escolher uma profissão. Não estou necessariamente a fazer apologia de que todas as pessoas devem constituir família, convenhamos que muitos de nós não têm vocação para o mesmo (apesar de muitos ainda assim o fazerem), mas quer seja afirmativa ou negativa a resposta parece-me fundamental que nos concentremos nessa decisão. Muito mais do que qualquer profissão a família é onde naturalmente procuramos apoio, conforto e incentivo perante todas as vicissitudes da vida. O facto de existirem famílias que não são fontes de amor para as pessoas em nada invalida que esta seja a organização social por excelência que aporta significado ás nossas vidas. Infelizmente, para muitas pessoas uma experiência pessoal mais difícil a este nível influi na forma como pensam sobre a possibilidade de criarem a sua própria família. Algumas questões a ter em conta nesta ponderação: Qual é o meu ideal de família ? Qual o meu papel enquanto homem/mulher no seio da família? Que tipo de parceiro devo procurar? Desejo ter filhos ? Podemos usar estas questões como pontos de partida para iniciar uma exploração da nossa vocação. ***2.Tomar decisões cedo em vez de protelar indefinidamente*** Atualmente notamos que as pessoas constituem família cada vez mais tarde e que têm filhos cada vez mais tarde. É curioso notar que nos relacionamentos por vezes há alguma pressa para passar do conhecer a pessoa à intimidade sexual e não há pressa alguma para decidir se de facto é com aquela pessoa que queremos passar o resto dos nossos dias. Este é apenas um aspecto no qual se nota uma progressiva detioração da capacidade para decidir. É-nos muitas vezes transmitida a ideia de que temos tempo e de que não há uma idade certa para tomar determinadas decisões. Estes discursos são cínicos pois é evidente que há fases que são mais propícias para dar determinados passos na nossa vida, daí que seja muito importante aprender a tomar decisões cedo. Para tomar decisões sóbrias é fundamental saber-se exatamente aquilo que queremos. Se tudo isso está indefinido e não conseguimos postular uma ideia de futuro para nós será muito mais difícil tomar qualquer tipo de decisão importante. Um outro aspecto a ter em conta é o de que as principais decisões são guiadas pela razão, isto é os nossos sentimentos têm de estar ao serviço dos nossos valores e nunca o contrário. *3.Se não te imaginas a casar com a pessoa com quem estás, termina o relacionamento.* Deixar a porta aberta num relacionamento de forma indefinida é algo que vai produzir instabilidade no longo prazo. É óbvio que para muitas pessoas o casamento é “apenas um papel” e portanto não vêm a real utilidade em se casar. Contudo, e de forma não surpreendente, notamos que os casais que têm na sua vida uma visão sobrenatural do casamento tendem a perdurar. Digamos que a cola que é usada para unir as pessoas é de um outro calibre, enquanto que a cola usada por aqueles que não têm Deus nas suas vidas está muito mais sujeita à volatilidade do tempo, dos apetites individuais e do relativismo. *4.Assume a responsabilidade pelos teus erros sem te deixar levar pelo vitimismo.* A cultura atual, influenciada de forma determinante pela filosofia marxista, está permanentemente a postular divisões de poder na sociedade que pressupõe duas categorias principais a de oprimido e opressor. Esta ideologia apoiada no revisionismo histórico e numa pedagogia social falaciosa incute desde cedo na população a ideia de que em algum momento, tendo ou não pertencido a uma minoria, somos vítimas. Vemos vários exemplos e derivações desta doutrina quando tocamos em temas como o feminismo, o racismo e outros ismos que se focam apenas nesta divisão dicotómica oprimido e opressor. Esta narrativa esquece que a hierarquia é uma organização natural que define aptidões diferenciadas e consequentemente vocações diferentes. Um outro aspecto que também é esquecido é o livre arbítrio, isto é, a ideia de que as pessoas têm poder de decisão e que muitas vezes podem ser coniventes e partes atuantes no sistema em que participam. Quer isto dizer que individualmente cada um de nós, havendo discernimento, tem escolha e portanto é muito mais produtivo focar a nossa atenção nesse aspecto do que em qualquer tipo de desigualdade que possa existir. A igualdade de circunstâncias para todas as pessoas é uma utopia, a única igualdade que existe é da essência humana. O caminho para escapar ao vitimismo será sempre o da responsabilidade individual e da gratidão apesar das circunstâncias adversas que possamos estar a viver. *5.Foca-te primeiro no que te é mais próximo antes do mundo* Por vezes, inspirados por uma soberba intelectual que agora é típica da juventude vemo-nos a fazer o papel de ativistas em determinadas causas, algumas nobres outras nem tanto. Acontece que este ativismo é frequentemente uma ato postiço, uma pose que usamos como forma de sinalizar a nossa virtude perante os nossos pares. Onde se percebem os pés de barro é quando notamos que diante das pessoas que nos são mais próximas não temos o mesmo zelo que apresentamos quando estamos a debater as grandes questões do mundo. Há que ser zeloso com quem nos rodeia e os problemas mais urgentes para resolver, e aqueles em que a nossa intervenção é de facto mais necessária, são os que nos são mais próximos. *6.Dizer a verdade* A corrupção moral funciona de forma gradual, vai de menos a mais, começamos com uma coisa pequena até chegarmos a algo maior. Quando somos mais novos vamos experimentando a corrupção através do exercício da mentira em pequenas coisas e gradualmente vamos avançando para as coisas maiores. Alguns de nós resistem à mentira, facilmente se entende que não desejamos que os outros nos mintam no entanto, se o repetimos muitas vezes facilmente a banalizamos. A mentira é uma tentativa de esquivar a responsabilidade pelas nossas ações ou opiniões, uma tentativa de fuga ás consequências. Contudo, importa perceber que inevitavelmente vamos sempre confrontar-nos com as consequências sejam quais forem as circunstâncias. Se não as experimentamos pela espada dos outros será pela nossa própria espada quando finalmente percebermos que não há harmonia entre o pensamento e a ação, que dizemos uma coisa mas fazemos outra, que a nossa identidade é também ela uma ficção. O exercício da verdade será a única via para nos aproximarmos de uma existência mais harmoniosa e autêntica, a única forma de estabelecer uma relação genuína com os outros. *7.Decisões inspiradas pela coragem e menos pelo medo* As nossas decisões têm frequentemente como força motriz o medo. O medo da rejeição impede-nos de ir falar com aquela pessoa de quem gostamos, o medo do juízo social impede-nos de proferir a nossa opinião em determinado assunto, o medo da morte leva-nos a ter comportamentos obsessivos com a nossa saúde; enfim, são muitas as situações em que as nossas decisões são pautadas pelo medo. É importante que cada vez mais, o medo não seja o factor definidor da nossa decisão. A coragem, temperada pela prudência, devem ser os grandes arquitetos da nossa decisão. Aquilo que é bom no sentido mais profundo é o que devemos seguir, independentemente de sentirmos medo. *8.Ninguém é obrigado a gostar de nós, ninguém nos deve nada* O ressentimento e mágoa leva-nos por vezes a tratar os outros como se eles nos devessem algo, como se fosse impensável não nos reconhecerem como aprazíveis aos seus olhos ou justos. Isto é uma forma subtil do orgulho se expressar, porque mais uma vez nos colocamos na posição de vítima e assim, julgamos que os outros nos deveriam reconhecer como virtuosos de alguma forma. Pois bem, apesar dos outros, tal como nós, terem deveres e poderem fazer menção honrosa da nossa existência não devemos esperar isso. Esperando isso, acabamos escravizados por essas expectativas porque continuamos à espera que gostem de nós. Desta forma distorcemos também o próprio conceito de amor, que é doar-se sem esperar em troca. Não é que os outros não o possam fazer, podem, o problema está na espera e na exigência. *9.Definir uma matriz moral objetiva* Imbuídos de um espírito relativista estamos muitas vezes sujeitos a uma subjetividade enorme no que diz respeito aos nossos valores. O resultado disto é que inevitavelmente vamos ter uma definição menos clara do bem e do mal. Frequentemente vamos confundir o que é bom ou mau com os nossos desejos, alimentado pelos nossos vícios. Para termos uma visão mais clara da realidade é fundamental sairmos dessa visão subjetiva do valor e sermos capazes de procurar a verdadeira fonte das definições morais. Aqui, há determinadas mensagens sociais que nos confundem os sentidos, nomeadamente aquelas que atestam que tudo são apenas “pontos de vista”, que não há uma “verdade” mas sim várias verdades, e que “neste tempo/cultura/país” a moralidade é outra. São tudo asserções que dificultam esta pesquisa pela verdade e definição moral universal. Neste campo, o ser humano só será capaz de ter mais estabilidade em termos psicológicos aderindo a um sistema de valores imutável, esta é a única forma de basear a sua identidade em princípios mais objetivos. *10.Encontrar um propósito maior para a vida* Santo Agostinho diz-nos o seguinte: - Se não queres sofrer não ames, mas se não amas para que queres viver? Santo Agostinho Por vezes na nossa vida procuramos esquivar-nos do sofrimento e inclusive somos vitimas de um certo ceticismo e embotamento afetivo. Vamos experimentando a traição e a frustração das nossas expectativas e isso vai endurecendo o nosso coração. Em resultado disso, muitas vezes tornamo-nos também mais egoístas, focados na mera satisfação das nossas necessidades e menos nas dos outros. No entanto, isto faz de nós infelizes porque não conseguimos deixar de amar. A solução é encontrar algo maior que nós mesmos para amar, entendendo sempre que a essência do amor é o sacrifício. Encontrar isso é simultaneamente definir um propósito para a vida e daí derivar um significado que nos sustenta até nos momentos mais difíceis. Eventualmente poderei fazer alguma publicação específica expandindo um pouco mais alguns destes conselhos, uma vez que observo que muito mais poderia ter sido dito em cada um deles. Talvez venha a criar mais algumas publicações sobre este tema.

@ a2eddb26:e2868a80

In personal finance, the principles of financial independence and time sovereignty (FITS) empower individuals to escape the debt-based cycle that forces them into perpetual work. What if companies could apply the same principles? What if businesses, instead of succumbing to the relentless push for infinite growth, could optimize for real demand? This case study of the GPU industry aims to show that fiat-driven incentives distort technological progress and imagines an alternative future built on sound money. ### **Fiat Business: Growth or Death** Tech companies no longer optimize for efficiency, longevity, or real user needs. Instead, under a fiat system, they are forced into a perpetual growth model. If NVIDIA, AMD, or Intel fail to show revenue expansion, their stock price tanks. Let's take NVIDIA's GPUs as an example. The result is predictable: - GPUs that nobody actually needs but everyone is told to buy. - A focus on artificial benchmarks instead of real-world performance stability. - Endless FPS increases that mean nothing for 99% of users. The RTX 5090 is not for gamers. It is for NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings. This is not a surprise on a fiat standard. ### **Fiat Marketing: The Illusion of Need and the Refresh Rate Trap** Benchmarks confirm that once a GPU maintains 120+ FPS in worst-case scenarios, additional performance gains become irrelevant for most players. This level of capability was reached years ago. The problem is that efficiency does not sell as easily as bigger numbers. &#x20;This extends beyond raw GPU power and into the display market, where increasing refresh rates and resolutions are marketed as critical upgrades, despite diminishing real-world benefits for most users. While refresh rates above 120Hz may offer marginal improvements for competitive esports players, the average user sees little benefit beyond a certain threshold. Similarly, 8K resolutions are pushed as the next frontier, even though 4K remains underutilized due to game optimization and hardware constraints. This is why GPUs keep getting bigger, hotter, and more expensive, even when most gamers would be fine with a card from five years ago. It is why every generation brings another “must-have” feature, regardless of whether it impacts real-world performance.&#x20; Marketing under fiat operates on the principle of making people think they need something they do not. The fiat standard does not just distort capital allocation. It manufactures demand by exaggerating the importance of specifications that most users do not truly need. The goal is not technological progress but sales volume. True innovation would focus on meaningful performance gains that align with actual gaming demands, such as improving latency, frame-time consistency, and efficient power consumption. Instead, marketing convinces consumers they need unnecessary upgrades, driving them into endless hardware cycles that favor stock prices over user experience. They need the next-gen cycle to maintain high margins. The hardware is no longer designed for users. It is designed for shareholders. A company operating on sound money would not rely on deceptive marketing cycles. It would align product development with real user needs instead of forcing artificial demand. ### **The Shift to AI** For years, GPUs were optimized for gaming. Then AI changed everything. OpenAI, Google, and Stability AI now outbid consumers for GPUs. The 4090 became impossible to find, not because of gamers, but because AI labs were hoarding them. The same companies that depended on the consumer upgrade cycle now see their real profits coming from data centers. Yet, they still push gaming hardware aggressively. However, legitimate areas for improvement do exist. While marketing exaggerates the need for higher FPS at extreme resolutions, real gaming performance should focus on frame stability, low latency, and efficient rendering techniques. These are the areas where actual innovation should be happening. Instead, the industry prioritizes artificial performance milestones to create the illusion of progress, rather than refining and optimizing for the gaming experience itself. Why? ### **Gamers Fund the R&D for AI and Bear the Cost of Scalping** NVIDIA still needs gamers, but not in the way most think. The gaming market provides steady revenue, but it is no longer the priority. With production capacity shifting toward AI and industrial clients, fewer GPUs are available for gamers. This reduced supply has led to rampant scalping, where resellers exploit scarcity to drive up prices beyond reasonable levels. Instead of addressing the issue, NVIDIA benefits from the inflated demand and price perception, creating an even stronger case for prioritizing enterprise sales. Gaming revenue subsidizes AI research. The more RTX cards they sell, the more they justify pouring resources into data-center GPUs like the H100, which generate significantly higher margins than gaming hardware. AI dictates the future of GPUs. If NVIDIA and AMD produced dedicated gamer-specific GPUs in higher volumes, they could serve that market at lower prices. But in the fiat-driven world of stockholder demands, maintaining artificially constrained supply ensures maximum profitability. Gamers are left paying inflated prices for hardware that is no longer built with them as the primary customer. That is why GPU prices keep climbing. Gamers are no longer the main customer. They are a liquidity pool. ### **The Financial Reality** The financial reports confirm this shift: **NVIDIA’s 2024 fiscal year** saw a 126% revenue increase, reaching \$60.9 billion. The data center segment alone grew 217%, generating \$47.5 billion. ([Source](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2024/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-2024/)) The numbers make it clear. The real money is in AI and data centers, not gaming. NVIDIA has not only shifted its focus away from gamers but has also engaged in financial engineering to maintain its dominance. The company has consistently engaged in substantial stock buybacks, a hallmark of fiat-driven financial practices. In August 2023, NVIDIA announced a \$25 billion share repurchase program, surprising some investors given the stock's significant rise that year. ([Source](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidias-25-billion-buyback-a-head-scratcher-some-shareholders-2023-08-25/)) This was followed by an additional \$50 billion buyback authorization in 2024, bringing the total to \$75 billion over two years. ([Source](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidias-stock-buyback-plan-is-one-of-the-biggest-of-2024-is-that-a-good-thing-9beba5c5)) These buybacks are designed to return capital to shareholders and can enhance earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares. However, they also reflect a focus on short-term stock price appreciation rather than long-term value creation. Instead of using capital for product innovation, NVIDIA directs it toward inflating stock value, ultimately reducing its long-term resilience and innovation potential. In addition to shifting production away from consumer GPUs, NVIDIA has also enabled AI firms to use its chips as collateral to secure massive loans. Lambda, an AI cloud provider, secured a \$500 million loan backed by NVIDIA's H200 and Blackwell AI chips, with financing provided by Macquarie Group and Industrial Development Funding. ([Source](https://www.reuters.com/technology/lambda-secures-500-mln-loan-with-nvidia-chips-collateral-2024-04-04/)) This practice mirrors the way Bitcoin miners have used mining hardware as collateral, expecting continuous high returns to justify the debt. GPUs are fast-depreciating assets that lose value rapidly as new generations replace them. Collateralizing loans with such hardware is a high-risk strategy that depends on continued AI demand to justify the debt. AI firms borrowing against them are placing a leveraged bet on demand staying high. If AI market conditions shift or next-generation chips render current hardware obsolete, the collateral value could collapse, leading to cascading loan defaults and liquidations. This is not a sound-money approach to business. It is fiat-style quicksand financialization, where loans are built on assets with a limited shelf life. Instead of focusing on sustainable capital allocation, firms are leveraging their future on rapid turnover cycles. This further shifts resources away from gamers, reinforcing the trend where NVIDIA prioritizes high-margin AI sales over its original gaming audience.&#x20; At the same time, NVIDIA has been accused of leveraging anti-competitive tactics to maintain its market dominance. The GeForce Partner Program (GPP) launched in 2018 sought to lock hardware partners into exclusive deals with NVIDIA, restricting consumer choice and marginalizing AMD. Following industry backlash, the program was canceled. ([Source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GeForce_Partner_Program))&#x20; NVIDIA is not merely responding to market demand but shaping it through artificial constraints, financialization, and monopolistic control. The result is an industry where consumers face higher prices, limited options, and fewer true innovations as companies prioritize financial games over engineering excellence. On this basis, short-term downturns fueled by stock buybacks and leveraged bets create instability, leading to key staff layoffs. This forces employees into survival mode rather than fostering long-term innovation and career growth. Instead of building resilient, forward-looking teams, companies trapped in fiat incentives prioritize temporary financial engineering over actual product and market development. ### **A Sound Money Alternative: Aligning Incentives** Under a sound money system, consumers would become more mindful of purchases as prices naturally decline over time. This would force businesses to prioritize real value creation instead of relying on artificial scarcity and marketing hype. Companies would need to align their strategies with long-term customer satisfaction and sustainable engineering instead of driving demand through planned obsolescence. Imagine an orange-pilled CEO at NVIDIA. Instead of chasing infinite growth, they persuade the board to pivot toward sustainability and long-term value creation. The company abandons artificial product cycles, prioritizing efficiency, durability, and cost-effectiveness. Gaming GPUs are designed to last a decade, not three years. The model shifts to modular upgrades instead of full replacements. Pricing aligns with real user needs, not speculative stock market gains. Investors initially panic. The stock takes a temporary hit, but as consumers realize they no longer need to upgrade constantly, brand loyalty strengthens. Demand stabilizes, reducing volatility in production and supply chains. Gamers benefit from high-quality products that do not degrade artificially. AI buyers still access high-performance chips but at fair market prices, no longer subsidized by forced consumer churn. This is not an abstract vision. Businesses could collateralize loans with Bitcoin. Companies could also leverage highly sought-after end products that maintain long-term value. Instead of stock buybacks or anti-competitive practices, companies would focus on building genuine, long-term value. A future where Bitcoin-backed reserves replace fiat-driven financial engineering would stabilize capital allocation, preventing endless boom-bust cycles. This shift would eliminate the speculative nature of AI-backed loans, fostering financial stability for both borrowers and lenders. Sound money leads to sound business. When capital allocation is driven by real value rather than debt-fueled expansion, industries focus on sustainable innovation rather than wasteful iteration. ### **Reclaiming Time Sovereignty for Companies** The fiat system forces corporations into unsustainable growth cycles. Companies that embrace financial independence and time sovereignty can escape this trap and focus on long-term value. GPU development illustrates this distortion. The RTX 3080 met nearly all gaming needs, yet manufacturers push unnecessary performance gains to fuel stock prices rather than improve usability. GPUs are no longer designed for gamers but for AI and enterprise clients, shifting NVIDIA’s priorities toward financial engineering over real innovation. This cycle of GPU inflation stems from fiat-driven incentives—growth for the sake of stock performance rather than actual demand. Under a sound money standard, companies would build durable products, prioritizing efficiency over forced obsolescence. Just as individuals can reclaim financial sovereignty, businesses can do the same. Embracing sound money fosters sustainable business strategies, where technology serves real needs instead of short-term speculation. #Bitcoin #FITS #Marketing #TimeSovereignty #BitcoinFixesThis #OptOut #EngineeringNotFinance #SoundBusiness

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Mitch McConnell, a senior Republican senator, announced he will not seek reelection. At 83 years old and with health issues, this decision was expected. After seven terms, he leaves a significant legacy in U.S. politics, known for his strategic maneuvering. McConnell stated, “My current term in the Senate will be my last.” His retirement marks the end of an influential political era.

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Imagine-se numa fila de uma feira de emprego com dois amigos igualmente qualificados, mas provenientes de contextos socioeconómicos diferentes. Um dos amigos, devido às suas circunstâncias económicas, recebe um tratamento preferencial—como um aumento de 10% na pontuação da sua candidatura, como parte de uma política destinada a corrigir desvantagens sistémicas. O outro amigo, apesar de igualmente qualificado, não recebe qualquer vantagem. Quem conseguirá o emprego para o qual ambos estão capacitados? Este cenário destaca o paradoxo no cerne de muitas políticas de justiça social: tratar as pessoas de forma diferente para atingir a igualdade muitas vezes resulta em resultados desiguais, desafiando o princípio de equidade e minando a confiança. Esta tensão entre os objetivos da justiça social e a necessidade de equidade tem moldado debates sobre ações afirmativas, tributação progressiva, programas de bem-estar social e outras políticas destinadas a promover a equidade entre grupos. Embora bem-intencionadas, estas iniciativas podem marginalizar o mérito individual e gerar ressentimento entre aqueles que se sentem injustamente tratados. A tese central deste artigo é que, embora a justiça social tenha como objetivo promover a igualdade, as suas políticas requerem inerentemente um tratamento desigual, o que paradoxalmente arrisca criar novas formas de desigualdade. Este paradoxo destaca os desafios de buscar a equidade através da intervenção estatal. ### O Princípio da Justiça Social As políticas de justiça social frequentemente focam-se em atingir a igualdade de resultados através da intervenção estatal. Por exemplo, a ação afirmativa na educação promove a representação de grupos sub-representados através de medidas como cotas raciais ou tratamento preferencial em processos de admissão universitária. De forma semelhante, a tributação progressiva procura redistribuir riqueza ao impor maiores encargos fiscais a determinados grupos de rendimento. Embora estas políticas visem corrigir desigualdades sistémicas, elas inerentemente requerem tratar as pessoas de forma diferente com base em fatores como raça, rendimento ou condição socioeconómica. Esta discrepância pode criar uma perceção de favoritismo, erodindo a confiança nas instituições e gerando ressentimento entre aqueles que se sentem injustamente prejudicados. Ao dar prioridade à identidade de grupo em detrimento das circunstâncias individuais, estas políticas podem comprometer a equidade e minar a confiança nas instituições, criando percepções de injustiça e ineficiência económica. ### O Problema do Tratamento Desigual Uma das preocupações centrais com as políticas de justiça social é a sua dependência no tratamento desigual para atingir a igualdade de resultados. Embora concebidas para promover a equidade, estas políticas frequentemente conduzem a consequências indesejadas que desafiam a equidade e a coesão social. Por exemplo, as políticas de acção afirmativa têm sido criticadas por enfatizarem a identidade de grupo em detrimento do mérito individual. Isto pode resultar na seleção de candidatos com base em cotas em vez de qualificações, gerando frustração entre aqueles que se sentem preteridos, apesar dos seus esforços ou competências. De forma semelhante, os sistemas de tributação progressiva sobrecarregam desproporcionalmente certos grupos, criando a perceção de penalização injusta. As cotas na educação ou no emprego são particularmente controversas. Ao impor limites ou metas com base na identidade de grupo, estas políticas podem inadvertidamente excluir indivíduos que não se enquadram nos critérios definidos. Esta exclusão muitas vezes gera ressentimento, pois os afetados percebem o sistema como priorizando a equidade para uns em detrimento de outros. Além disso, ao enfatizar a identidade de grupo sobre o mérito individual, as políticas de justiça social podem inadvertidamente enfraquecer incentivos à excelência e à responsabilidade pessoal, gerando impactos negativos na produtividade e na confiança nas instituições. Esta dinâmica pode corroer a responsabilidade e a confiança nas instituições, criando divisões dentro da sociedade. Ao enfatizar a igualdade de resultados sobre a igualdade de oportunidades, tais políticas arriscam consolidar novas formas de desigualdade. ### Estudos de Caso e Exemplos do Mundo Real **Acção Afirmativa na Educação** A política de acção afirmativa da Universidade do Texas em Austin, que considera a raça como um dos factores nas admissões, gerou desafios legais. Críticos argumentaram que a política prejudicava injustamente candidatos igualmente ou mais qualificados que não atendiam aos critérios da política. Embora os tribunais tenham apoiado a política, a controvérsia destaca a tensão entre promover diversidade e preservar o mérito individual. **Programas de Bem-Estar Redistributivo** Nos Estados Unidos, o Crédito Tributário por Rendimento do Trabalho (EITC) visa aliviar a pobreza entre indivíduos de baixos rendimentos. Contudo, disparidades na sua implementação causaram fricções. Por exemplo, estudos mostram variações nos benefícios entre grupos demográficos, deixando alguns com a sensação de tratamento injusto, apesar de circunstâncias financeiras semelhantes. Estes resultados ilustram como políticas redistributivas podem inadvertidamente gerar ressentimento. **Cotas de Diversidade na Contratação** Muitas empresas implementaram cotas de diversidade para aumentar a representação. Contudo, estas medidas frequentemente levantam preocupações sobre equidade. Empregados contratados sob cotas por vezes relatam sentir-se estigmatizados, e outros percebem o sistema como desvalorizando o mérito. Isto mina a moral e a confiança no local de trabalho, como demonstrado em inquéritos que revelam insatisfação com práticas de contratação baseadas em cotas. Os exemplos acima ilustram como políticas desenhadas para promover equidade podem, na prática, comprometer os princípios de justiça e meritocracia, resultando em consequências imprevistas que minam a confiança nas instituições. A dependência generalizada na identidade de grupo, em vez do desempenho individual, arrisca criar divisões e reduzir a confiança nas instituições. ### Crítica Filosófica e Ética A busca pela justiça social levanta dilemas filosóficos e éticos, particularmente no equilíbrio entre igualdade e equidade. Por um lado, a igualdade sugere tratar os indivíduos de forma imparcial, independentemente da identidade. Por outro, atingir a igualdade de resultados frequentemente requer tratamento desigual. Sob uma perspetiva rawlsiana, as políticas redistributivas são justificadas para corrigir desigualdades sistémicas e promover a equidade. Contudo, pensadores libertários como Robert Nozick argumentam que tais intervenções violam os direitos e as liberdades individuais. Para Nozick, a justiça reside na proteção da autonomia e da propriedade pessoal, não na redistribuição de recursos para atingir objetivos coletivos. Ademais, uma énfase excessiva na identidade de grupo pode fomentar uma cultura de vitimização, onde os indivíduos priorizam queixas em detrimento da responsabilidade pessoal. Esta dinâmica pode consolidar divisões, incentivar direitos adquiridos e minar a coesão social. As políticas que promovem a igualdade de resultados podem inadvertidamente criar privilégios para alguns enquanto desfavorecem outros, perpetuando novas formas de desigualdade. Uma abordagem equilibrada deve considerar as implicações éticas das medidas redistributivas, preservando as liberdades individuais e a meritocracia. Ao focar na oportunidade em vez do resultado, as sociedades podem buscar a equidade sem comprometer a autonomia. ### Soluções Alternativas **Investir na Educação** Proporcionar acesso à educação de alta qualidade é uma forma poderosa de nivelar o campo de jogo. Programas que ampliem as oportunidades educacionais para comunidades desfavorecidas podem promover mobilidade social sem depender de tratamentos preferenciais. **Garantir Liberdade Económica** Reduzir barreiras regulatórias e promover mercados livres pode estimular a inovação, o empreendedorismo e a criação de emprego. Ao incentivar a competição, os indivíduos podem prosperar com base nas suas capacidades em vez de depender de intervenções externas. **Aproveitar Sistemas Descentralizados** Tecnologias descentralizadas como o Bitcoin podem empoderar indivíduos ao oferecer inclusão financeira e reduzir a dependência de sistemas estatais. Estas ferramentas proporcionam transparência e autonomia, minimizando oportunidades de favoritismo ou corrupção. **Medidas Práticas** - Bolsas de estudo e subsídios baseados no mérito. - Programas de formação profissional para desenvolver competências de mercado. - Apoio ao empreendedorismo através de financiamento e mentoria. - Reformas para simplificar os sistemas fiscais e regulatórios. Estas soluções priorizam a equidade, o empoderamento individual e a oportunidade, promovendo uma sociedade onde as pessoas prosperem com base no mérito e no esforço. ### Conclusão As políticas de justiça social frequentemente procuram atingir a igualdade através do tratamento desigual, mas esta abordagem pode criar novas formas de desigualdade e divisão. A énfase na identidade de grupo em detrimento do mérito individual arrisca corroer a equidade e a confiança, minando os objetivos que estas políticas procuram atingir. Para alcançar uma sociedade mais justa e sustentável, é essencial focar na igualdade de oportunidades, garantindo que todos tenham acesso aos mesmos recursos e condições para prosperar, sem comprometer a autonomia individual ou distorcer os princípios da meritocracia. Investimentos na educação, liberdade económica e tecnologias descentralizadas oferecem caminhos práticos para empoderar indivíduos e fomentar a meritocracia. Um compromisso com estes princípios pode criar um futuro mais inclusivo e equitativo, onde todos tenham a chance de prosperar com base nos seus próprios esforços e capacidades. _Photo by [Cody Pulliam](https://unsplash.com/@codyaustinpulliam?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/photos/person-holding-brown-cardboard-box-GGKVGSkKIzM?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash)_

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Anarquia: uma palavra que frequentemente evoca imagens de caos e desordem, associada ao velho oeste sem lei ou a futuros distópicos onde impera a força bruta. No entanto, para aqueles que investigam mais a fundo, a anarquia revela-se como algo muito mais sofisticado—um sistema não definido pela ausência de regras, mas sim pela ausência de governantes (*rules without rulers*). Essa distinção fundamental é essencial para compreender um dos conceitos mais fascinantes e, ao mesmo tempo, mais difamados da sociedade. A ideia de que anarquia significa desordem ou uma sociedade sem estrutura é um equívoco baseado no medo do desconhecido e na falta de compreensão dos seus princípios básicos. Na realidade, a anarquia assenta sobre um princípio fundamental: o **Princípio da Não-Agressão (PNA)**. Este princípio estabelece que nenhum indivíduo tem o direito de iniciar o uso da força, coerção ou fraude contra os outros, sem o seu consentimento, sendo este um dos pilares fundamentais para a preservação da propriedade privada e das liberdades individuais. Não se trata, portanto, de uma sociedade sem regras, mas sim de uma organização baseada em **estruturas legais descentralizadas e orgânicas**, como a **lei natural e o direito consuetudinário**, que emergem naturalmente através das interacções voluntárias entre indivíduos. A história demonstra que, mesmo na ausência de uma autoridade central, os seres humanos são perfeitamente capazes de criar ordens sociais complexas, baseadas na cooperação, na ajuda mútua e no progresso. Este artigo explora como a anarquia funciona enquanto sistema de cooperação voluntária e direito natural, desafiando as concepções erradas que persistem sobre o tema e revelando o seu potencial para fortalecer a liberdade individual e a coesão social. Ao analisar as suas raízes filosóficas, o papel do Estado dentro de um enquadramento anarquista e os exemplos históricos que demonstram a capacidade da humanidade para se auto-organizar, procuramos iluminar um futuro onde a liberdade não seja apenas um sonho utópico, mas uma possibilidade concreta. ## Principio da Não Agressão (PNA) A **base da anarquia** assenta sobre um princípio inegociável: o Princípio da Não-Agressão. Este postulado não é apenas uma directriz moral, mas sim uma regra essencial de conduta, destinada a fomentar uma sociedade cooperativa e pacífica, onde os indivíduos vivem sem medo da coerção ou da violência. A partir deste princípio, deriva-se naturalmente a **propriedade privada**, pois cada indivíduo tem o direito de usufruir e gerir os recursos que adquire sem recorrer à força contra terceiros. Da mesma forma, a violação deste princípio—seja através do roubo, homicídio ou qualquer tipo de agressão física ou psicológica, não consentida—é condenada de forma universal, pois representa um atentado contra a liberdade de cada um. Num enquadramento anarquista, a ausência de uma estrutura coerciva não significa a ausência de ordem. Métodos como **pressão social, ostracismo de infractores e mecanismos privados de justiça** ajudam a manter a harmonia social. Por exemplo, em situações de litígio entre vizinhos sobre a posse de um terreno, em vez de recorrer ao Estado, poderiam simplesmente resolver a disputa através de um mediador comunitário ou de um serviço de arbitragem voluntário. ## Ordem Sem Autoridade Central A crença de que a lei e a ordem dependem de um poder centralizado ignora uma vasta tradição histórica de **sistemas legais descentralizados** que surgiram espontaneamente, sem intervenção estatal. A anarquia não significa ausência de normas, mas sim uma **ordem espontânea baseada em leis naturais e consuetudinárias**. A lei natural consiste em princípios universais, reconhecidos pela razão, que não dependem da autoridade estatal. Já o direito consuetudinário assenta na tradição e nos precedentes, evoluindo conforme as necessidades das comunidades. Um excelente exemplo histórico é o código jurídico medieval islandês "Grágás", que regulava litígios e contratos através de mediação voluntária. Sistemas baseados na reputação também são eficazes. No passado, comerciantes que desrespeitassem contratos viam-se rapidamente excluídos do mercado. Hoje, soluções descentralizadas como a arbitragem privada demonstram que contratos podem ser cumpridos sem necessidade de coerção estatal. ## Anarquia como Estado Natural da Cooperação Humana A cooperação voluntária está no cerne da natureza humana. A ideia de que é necessária uma autoridade central para garantir harmonia social desconsidera as inúmeras instâncias de colaboração espontânea ao longo da história. O funcionamento dos mercados ilustra perfeitamente a anarquia em acção. Sem um governo a ditar regras, indivíduos interagem livremente, criando riqueza e inovação. A busca pelo progresso científico também reflecte este princípio: Albert Einstein, Nikola Tesla, Henry Ford ou Thomas Edison não foram forçados pelo Estado a desenvolver as suas invenções—fizeram-no por interesse próprio, beneficiando toda a humanidade. Da mesma forma, a revolução industrial não foi um plano centralizado, mas sim o resultado de inúmeras inovações individuais que impulsionaram a prosperidade global. A tecnologia moderna, com exemplos como Bitcoin e Nostr, redes descentralizadas, prova que sociedades podem operar sem intermediários estatais, ou autoridades centrais. ## Estado: Pode Existir Num Enquadramento Anarquista? O Estado, mesmo na sua versão mais reduzida, pode representar um risco para a liberdade individual. Alguns, eu incluído, argumentam que um "Estado mínimo" (minarquia) poderia existir para garantir segurança e mediar disputas, mas essa estrutura pode rapidamente expandir-se e transformar-se num mecanismo de coerção. ### A necessidade de mecanismos de controlo e equilíbrio Mesmo um Estado reduzido exigiria salvaguardas para evitar abusos de poder. Para isso, seriam necessários mecanismos que garantam que nenhuma autoridade se torne dominante e que a sociedade mantenha a sua autonomia. Algumas soluções incluem: - **Representação directa**: Em vez de delegar decisões a políticos, a população poderia ter mais influência directa nas questões que afectam a sua vida (como na Suiça por exemplo). - **Arbitragem independente**: Conflitos poderiam ser resolvidos sem recorrer a tribunais estatais, através de mediação voluntária e sistemas de justiça comunitária. - **Redes de apoio social**: Fortalecer redes de ajuda mútua reduziria a necessidade de um governo central para fornecer serviços essenciais. ### Exemplos práticos Algumas iniciativas mostram que a sociedade pode funcionar com estruturas descentralizadas: - **Cidades com participação cívica activa**: Experiências como o orçamento participativo em algumas cidades demonstram como a sociedade pode gerir recursos colectivos sem excessiva intervenção estatal. - **Redes de ajuda mútua**: Grupos como a *Mutual Aid Disaster Response Network* nos EUA provam que comunidades podem organizar-se para responder a crises sem depender do Estado. O desafio não é apenas imaginar um mundo sem Estado, mas conceber modelos descentralizados que garantam a liberdade individual e impeçam a concentração de poder. A verdadeira questão é: conseguiremos criar sistemas mais justos e funcionais sem recorrer à coerção estatal? ## Raízes Filosóficas da Anarquia A anarquia tem uma longa tradição filosófica que remonta a pensadores como **William Godwin**, **Pierre-Joseph Proudhon** e **Max Stirner**, cada um contribuindo com diferentes perspectivas sobre a organização social sem governantes. No século XX, pensadores como **Murray Rothbard** e **Hans-Hermann Hoppe** aprofundaram a ideia do anarco-capitalismo, propondo que todos os serviços actualmente providenciados pelo Estado poderiam ser oferecidos por meio de mercados livres. A raiz histórica da anarquia está firmemente ancorada no pensamento de esquerda (a tradicional... ), na medida em que a sua proposta fundamental é a **eliminação do poder central**. O anarquismo clássico emergiu como uma resposta ao absolutismo e ao capitalismo industrial, defendendo que a autoridade imposta pelo Estado e pelas elites económicas deveria ser desmantelada para dar lugar a um sistema de cooperação voluntária e descentralizada. Proudhon, ao afirmar "a propriedade é roubo", reflectia esta preocupação com a concentração de poder e riqueza nas mãos de poucos. Com o tempo, no entanto, diferentes correntes começaram a emergir dentro da tradição anarquista. A tradição anarquista de **esquerda** enfatiza a justiça social e a solidariedade comunitária, rejeitando tanto o Estado como o capitalismo. Nomes como **Bakunin** e **Kropotkin** defenderam a abolição da propriedade privada em favor de sistemas cooperativos, argumentando que apenas a auto gestão e o apoio mútuo poderiam garantir a verdadeira liberdade. Por outro lado, no século XX, surgiu uma vertente anarquista mais **associada à direita**, especialmente com Rothbard e Hoppe, que viam o mercado como a melhor alternativa ao Estado. Para os anarco-capitalistas, a liberdade individual é prioritária, e a descentralização deve ocorrer não apenas ao nível político, mas também económico, permitindo que todas as transacções sejam voluntárias e baseadas na propriedade privada. Apesar dessas divergências, há um ponto comum entre todas as vertentes anarquistas: a rejeição do **monopólio da violência estatal**. Tanto anarquistas de esquerda quanto de direita reconhecem que o poder centralizado inevitavelmente conduz à opressão e à limitação da liberdade individual. O debate interno dentro do anarquismo não é sobre a necessidade de abolir o Estado, mas sim sobre o que deve substituí-lo: auto gestão comunitária e colectivismo ou mercados livres e concorrência voluntária? A preservação da propriedade privada e a liberdade de associação são, para mim, princípios fundamentais dentro do pensamento anarquista. Nada impede que, numa sociedade anarquista, grupos de indivíduos escolham unir-se voluntariamente para formar projectos cooperativos baseados em valores partilhados. O que distingue essa abordagem da imposição estatal é o carácter voluntário e descentralizado dessas associações, garantindo que cada pessoa possa viver conforme os seus próprios princípios sem coerção externa. Esta dicotomia entre esquerda e direita dentro do anarquismo reflecte diferentes interpretações sobre a melhor forma de organizar a sociedade sem coerção. O que permanece inegável é que a anarquia, independentemente da vertente, continua a ser uma proposta de resistência contra qualquer forma de domínio centralizado, colocando a liberdade e a autonomia no centro da organização social. ## Conclusão A anarquia não é um sonho utópico, mas sim uma alternativa viável à organização centralizada da sociedade. Através do respeito pelo Princípio da Não-Agressão, da descentralização das normas jurídicas e da cooperação voluntária, podemos construir um mundo mais livre, onde as pessoas têm o poder de se governar a si mesmas. Sistemas como Bitcoin já demonstram que a descentralização funciona e que a ausência de intermediários coercivos é não só possível, mas desejável. O desafio não é saber se a anarquia pode funcionar, mas sim **quanto tempo levará para as pessoas perceberem que um mundo sem Estado é mais próspero e justo**. #anarquia #anarco #bitcoin --- _Photo by [Orit Matee](https://unsplash.com/@splashcom?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/photos/black-and-silver-heart-shaped-wall-decor-qqiAxa9hpaA?utm_content=creditCopyText&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=unsplash)_

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has recently introduced a groundbreaking ruling that significantly alters the way Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are accounted for in financial statements. This new development is poised to transform the landscape of crypto accounting, bringing in more transparency and alignment with traditional financial practices. Let's delve into the details of this pivotal change. **Table of Contents** - Introduction to the New FASB Ruling - The Shift to Fair Value Accounting - Understanding Fair Value Accounting - Impact on Financial Reporting - Advantages of the New Approach - Enhanced Transparency and Accuracy - Positive Implications for Companies - Challenges and Considerations - Dealing with Volatility - Auditor Expertise - Industry Response and Future Outlook - Embracing the Change - Long-Term Implications - Conclusion - FAQs **Introduction to the New FASB Ruling** The FASB, the principal body responsible for establishing accounting standards in the United States, announced a new set of rules concerning the accounting of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This announcement marks a significant shift from the previous accounting practices for digital assets. Previously, the lack of clear guidelines led to inconsistencies and uncertainties in how companies reported their crypto holdings. The new ruling aims to standardize these practices and reflects the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the financial world. **The Shift to Fair Value Accounting** **Understanding Fair Value Accounting** Under the new FASB rules, companies are now required to account for cryptocurrencies at their fair value. Fair value accounting involves assessing assets and liabilities based on their current market value, rather than their historical cost. This approach is expected to provide a more accurate and real-time reflection of a company's financial status. It marks a significant departure from the traditional cost-based accounting methods, which often do not reflect the current market realities, especially in the case of highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. **Impact on Financial Reporting** This shift to fair value accounting means that companies holding cryptocurrencies will report the value of these assets based on their market prices at the end of each reporting period. This move is a departure from the previous method where Bitcoin was treated as an intangible asset, leading to certain limitations in financial reporting. For instance, under the old rules, if the value of Bitcoin fell below its purchase price, companies had to report a loss, but they couldn't report an increase in value unless the asset was sold. The new approach allows for a more dynamic and responsive reporting system that better reflects the economic realities of holding cryptocurrencies. **Advantages of the New Approach** **Enhanced Transparency and Accuracy** One of the primary benefits of this new ruling is the increased transparency and accuracy it brings to financial reporting. Companies can now reflect the actual market value of their crypto holdings, providing a clearer picture of their financial health. This change is particularly significant given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies. By reporting the fair market value, companies can provide stakeholders with a more accurate depiction of their financial standing, which is crucial for informed decision-making by investors, regulators, and other stakeholders. **Positive Implications for Companies** Companies are likely to welcome this change as it allows them to report unrealized gains and losses on cryptocurrencies. This could encourage more businesses to add cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to their balance sheets, as they can now recognize the appreciation in value without needing to sell the assets. This change could also lead to a broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate and valuable asset class, potentially spurring further investment and innovation in the crypto space. **Challenges and Considerations** **Dealing with Volatility** The inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin poses a significant challenge in fair value accounting. Companies will need to develop robust methods to accurately assess the market value of these assets, which can fluctuate widely. This volatility requires continuous monitoring and frequent valuation adjustments, which can be resource-intensive and complex. Companies will need to invest in sophisticated valuation models and possibly seek external expertise to ensure accuracy and compliance. **Auditor Expertise** Another challenge lies in the need for auditors to acquire expertise in valuing cryptocurrencies. Assessing the fair market value of digital assets is a complex task that requires specific knowledge and skills. Auditors will need to stay abreast of the rapidly evolving crypto market and develop new methodologies for valuation. This requirement not only adds a layer of complexity to the audit process but also underscores the need for ongoing education and training in this emerging field. **Industry Response and Future Outlook** **Embracing the Change** The industry's response to the FASB's ruling has been largely positive. Industry leaders view this as a step towards mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies and a move that aligns digital assets with traditional financial reporting standards. This ruling is seen as a validation of the growing role of cryptocurrencies in the financial sector and a sign that regulatory bodies are beginning to recognize and adapt to the unique characteristics of these digital assets. **Long-Term Implications** In the long run, this ruling could lead to greater institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. As financial reporting becomes more standardized and transparent, it may foster greater trust and confidence among investors and regulators. This could pave the way for more widespread use of cryptocurrencies in various financial transactions and potentially influence the development of new financial products and services centered around digital assets. **Conclusion** The FASB's latest ruling on cryptocurrency accounting is a landmark decision that aligns the treatment of digital assets with traditional financial practices. While it presents certain challenges, particularly in terms of volatility and the need for specialized auditor expertise, the overall impact is expected to be profoundly positive. This change not only enhances transparency and accuracy in financial reporting but also paves the way for broader acceptance and integration of cryptocurrencies in the mainstream financial world. As the industry adapts to these new rules, we can expect to see a more mature and robust crypto market, potentially leading to innovative financial solutions and greater economic opportunities. **FAQs** **When will the new FASB rules take effect?** The new rules are set to take effect from December 15, 2024, but companies have the option to apply them earlier. **How does fair value accounting affect financial reporting?** Fair value accounting allows companies to report the value of cryptocurrencies based on current market prices, providing a more accurate and real-time reflection of a company's financial status. **What are the benefits of the new FASB ruling?** The new ruling enhances transparency and accuracy in financial reporting and encourages more businesses to add cryptocurrencies to their balance sheets by allowing them to report unrealized gains and losses. **What challenges does the new ruling present?** The main challenges include dealing with the volatility of cryptocurrencies in fair value accounting and the need for auditors to develop expertise in valuing these digital assets. **What is the industry's response to the new ruling?** The industry has largely responded positively, viewing it as a step towards mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies and alignment with traditional financial reporting standards. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม BTCUSDT (OKX):** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) ยังคงแสดงความผันผวนและแนวโน้มที่ไม่ชัดเจน แม้ว่าแนวโน้มระยะยาว (TF Day) จะยังคงมีลักษณะเป็นขาขึ้น (แต่*อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก*) แนวโน้มระยะกลาง (TF4H) และระยะสั้น (TF15) เป็นขาลง การวิเคราะห์ครั้งนี้จะเน้นไปที่การระบุระดับราคาที่ Smart Money อาจจะเข้ามามีส่วนร่วม และการประเมินความแข็งแกร่งของแนวโน้ม **วิเคราะห์ทีละ Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (รายวัน):**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาขึ้น (Uptrend) *อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, มีความเสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม* * **SMC:** * Higher Highs (HH) และ Higher Lows (HL) *เริ่มไม่ชัดเจน, ราคาหลุด Low ก่อนหน้า* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านบน *แต่มีการปรับฐานที่รุนแรง* * **Liquidity:** * มี Sellside Liquidity (SSL) อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า (บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000) * มี Buyside Liquidity (BSL) อยู่เหนือ High เดิม * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาหลุด Order Block ขาขึ้น (บริเวณแท่งเทียนสีเขียวก่อนหน้านี้) *สัญญาณลบ* * **EMA:** * ราคา *หลุด* EMA 50 (สีเหลือง) ลงมาแล้ว * EMA 200 (สีขาว) เป็นแนวรับถัดไป * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * *สีแดงยาว* แสดงถึงแรงขายที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *และไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขายปรากฏ* * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างเบาบาง * **แท่งเทียน:** แท่งเทียนล่าสุดเป็นสีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **แนวรับ:** EMA 200, บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000 (SSL) * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, High เดิม * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาขึ้นอ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, *สัญญาณอันตรายหลายอย่าง*, Money Flow และ Trend Strength เป็นลบ, *หลุด Order Block และ EMA 50* **(2) TF4H (4 ชั่วโมง):**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **Liquidity:** * มี SSL อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า * มี BSL อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ขาลงได้ * **EMA:** * ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200 * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีเขียว (เมฆเขียว) *แต่ไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขายปรากฏ* * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, บริเวณ Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลงชัดเจน, แรงขายมีอิทธิพล, *Trend Strength ขัดแย้งกับ Price Action* **(3) TF15 (15 นาที):**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) *แต่เริ่มเห็นสัญญาณ Sideways* * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) *เริ่มเห็นการยก Low เล็กน้อย* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคา Sideways ใกล้ Order Block * **EMA:** * EMA 50 และ EMA 200 เป็นแนวต้าน * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * แดงสลับเขียว *แต่ส่วนใหญ่ยังเป็นสีแดง* * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง (เมฆแดง) แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง *แต่มีสัญญาณ Bullish Divergence (ราคาทำ Lower Low แต่ Trend Strength ยก Low)* * **Volume Profile:** * Volume ค่อนข้างสูง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง, เริ่มพักตัว, Money Flow เริ่มมีความไม่แน่นอน, *Trend Strength มี Divergence* **สรุปภาพรวมและกลยุทธ์ (BTCUSDT):** * **แนวโน้มหลัก (Day):** ขาขึ้น (*อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, เสี่ยงที่จะเปลี่ยนแนวโน้ม*) * **แนวโน้มรอง (4H):** ขาลง * **แนวโน้มระยะสั้น (15m):** ขาลง (เริ่มพักตัว, *มี Divergence*) * **Liquidity:** มี SSL ทั้งใน Day, 4H, และ 15m * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** Day/15m เป็นขาลง, 4H เป็นขาขึ้น *แต่ไม่มีสัญญาณ* * **กลยุทธ์:** 1. **Wait & See (ดีที่สุด):** รอความชัดเจน *โดยเฉพาะการ Breakout หรือ Breakdown จากกรอบ Sideways ใน TF15* 2. **Short (เสี่ยง):** ถ้าไม่สามารถ Breakout EMA/แนวต้านใน TF ใดๆ ได้, หรือเมื่อเกิดสัญญาณ Bearish Continuation 3. ***ไม่แนะนำให้ Buy:*** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจนมากๆ **Day Trade & การเทรดรายวัน:** * **Day Trade (TF15):** * **Short Bias:** หาจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาเด้งขึ้นไปทดสอบแนวต้าน (EMA, Order Block) * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (Low ล่าสุด) * **ระวัง:** Bullish Divergence ใน Trend Strength * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** * **Swing Trade (TF4H):** * **Short Bias:** รอจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาไม่สามารถผ่านแนวต้าน EMA หรือ Order Block ได้ * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** มีโอกาสสูงที่ราคาจะถูกลากลงไปแตะ SSL * **False Breakouts:** ระวัง * **Volatility:** สูง * **Divergence (TF15):** อาจเป็นสัญญาณเริ่มต้นของการกลับตัว *แต่ต้องรอการยืนยัน* * **Trend Strength (TF4H):** ไม่มีสัญญาณซื้อ/ขาย ต้องระวัง **Setup Day Trade แบบ SMC (ตัวอย่าง):** 1. **ระบุ Order Block:** หา Order Block ขาลง (Bearish Order Block) ใน TF15 (แท่งเทียนสีเขียวก่อนที่ราคาจะลงแรง) 2. **รอ Pullback:** รอให้ราคา Pullback ขึ้นไปทดสอบ Order Block นั้น 3. **หา Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** รอ Price Action ปฏิเสธ Order Block (เช่น เกิด Pin Bar, Engulfing) * **Break of Structure:** รอให้ราคา Break โครงสร้างย่อยๆ ใน TF ที่เล็กกว่า (เช่น 1m, 5m) หลังจากที่ทดสอบ Order Block * **Money Flow:** ดู Money Flow ให้เป็นสีแดง 4. **ตั้ง Stop Loss:** เหนือ Order Block 5. **ตั้ง Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (เช่น Low ล่าสุด) หรือ Order Block ขาขึ้น (Bullish Order Block) ใน TF ที่ใหญ่กว่า **คำแนะนำ:** * **ความขัดแย้งของ Timeframes:** มีอยู่ แต่แนวโน้มระยะกลาง-สั้น เป็นลบ * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** เริ่มมี Divergence ใน TF15 * **Order Block TF Day:** หลุด Order Block ขาขึ้นแล้ว * **ถ้าไม่แน่ใจ อย่าเพิ่งเข้าเทรด** **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**Overall Assessment:** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX remains highly volatile and shows conflicting signals. The long-term trend (Daily chart) is technically still an uptrend, *but it has weakened considerably* and is showing significant signs of a potential reversal. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts are in confirmed downtrends. The focus of this analysis is on identifying potential areas of Smart Money activity (liquidity pools and order blocks) and assessing trend strength. **Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (Daily):**  * **Trend:** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening, *at risk of reversing*). * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** * Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *becoming less defined*. The recent price action has broken previous lows. * Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but the current pullback is very deep. * **Liquidity:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range. This is a likely target for Smart Money. * **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high. * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):** * **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block (the large green candle before a significant up-move). This is a *major bearish signal*. * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * Price has *broken below* the 50-period EMA (yellow), a bearish signal. * The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * A *long red bar* indicates strong selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud indicating Downtrend, *No Buy/Sell Signal* * **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume on the recent decline. * **Candlesticks:** The most recent candlestick is red, confirming selling pressure. * **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area). * **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High. * **Summary:** The Daily chart's uptrend is significantly weakening. The break below the 50 EMA *and* the bullish Order Block, combined with the negative Money Flow and bearish Trend Strength, are all major warning signs. **(2) TF4H (4-Hour):**  * **Trend:** Downtrend. * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). * BOS to the downside. * **Liquidity:** * **SSL:** Below previous lows. * **BSL:** Above previous highs. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** The price rallied up to, and was rejected by, a *bearish* Order Block. * **EMA:** * Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish). * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Green Cloud, *But No Buy/Sell Signal.* This indicates a potential *retracement* within the downtrend, or a period of consolidation, *not* a trend reversal. * **Volume Profile:** * Relatively High volume * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. The Money Flow is bearish, and the price was rejected by a key Order Block. The green Trend Strength cloud *without* a buy signal suggests a potential *temporary* relief rally or consolidation, *not* a trend change. **(3) TF15 (15-Minute):**  * **Trend:** Downtrend (with some signs of *possible* stabilization). * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) – *but the most recent low is slightly higher, a potential early sign of a change*. * BOS to the downside. * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** Price has reacted to bearish Order Block. * **EMA:** * The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance. * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * Red and green alternating , showing some buying pressure has appeared, but sellers are still in control overall. * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * Red Cloud (Bearish), *BUT* there's a *bullish divergence* (price made a lower low, but the Trend Strength indicator made a higher low). This is a *potential* early warning sign of a reversal, but it needs *strong confirmation*. * **Volume Profile:** * relatively high volume. * **Support:** Recent lows. * **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block. * **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is in a downtrend, but there are *very early* and *tentative* signs of a possible stabilization or even a minor bounce. The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength is important to note, but it's not a buy signal on its own. **Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):** * **Primary Trend (Day):** Uptrend (Significantly Weakening). * **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend. * **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend (Potential Early Reversal Signals). * **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes. * **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes, although the 15m is showing *some* buying pressure returning. * **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day and 15m. Bullish on 4H, *but without a buy/sell signal*, indicating a likely retracement or consolidation, not a trend change. * **Strategies:** 1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The conflicting signals (especially the 4H Trend Strength) and the strong bearish momentum on the shorter timeframes make waiting the most prudent approach. Look for: * **Bearish Confirmation:** A decisive break below the recent lows on the 15m and 4H charts, with increasing volume and continued negative Money Flow. This would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * **Bullish Confirmation:** A strong, sustained break above the 15m EMAs, a shift in the 15m Money Flow to green, *and* a bullish signal on the 4H Trend Strength. This would be a *very early* sign of a potential reversal, but it would need further confirmation on the 4H chart (price above EMAs, positive Money Flow). 2. **Short (High Risk):** This is the more likely scenario *at this moment*, given the 4H and 15m downtrends. * **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance). * **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe. * **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then the Daily Order Block area around 92,000-94,000). 3. **Buy on Dip (Extremely High Risk - Not Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes, including a definitive shift in market structure on the 4H and 15m charts, positive Money Flow, and a clear break above resistance levels. **Key Recommendations:** * **Conflicting Signals:** The most important factor is the conflict between the still *technically* bullish Daily chart and the bearish 4H and 15m charts. The 4H Trend Strength being bullish *without a signal* adds to the uncertainty. * **Money Flow:** The predominantly negative Money Flow is a major bearish factor. * **15m Trend Strength Divergence:** This is a *potential* early warning, but it's *not* a buy signal on its own. It needs *much* more confirmation. * **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block on the Daily chart is a significant bearish development. * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting. * **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings. * **Volume:** Confirm any breakout with volume. **Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:** * **Day Trade (TF15 focus):** * **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities. * **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside). * **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows). * **Be very cautious:** The bullish divergence on the Trend Strength indicator suggests a potential bounce *could* occur. Don't be aggressive with shorts until this divergence is invalidated. * **Avoid Long positions:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure). * **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):** * **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend. * **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection. * **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position. * **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones). * **Avoid long position:** Until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart. **SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):** 1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move). *We have already identified this in previous analyses.* 2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block. 3. **Bearish Entry:** * **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern). * **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. This confirms weakening bullish momentum. * **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red). 4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block. 5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe. **In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, uncertain environment. The short-term and medium-term trends are bearish, while the long-term trend is weakening. The best approach for most traders is to wait for clearer signals. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk aggressively. Buying is extremely risky and not recommended at this time.** The bullish divergence on the 15m Trend Strength is a *potential* early warning of a change, but it needs *much* more confirmation before acting on it. The 4-hour chart showing a green cloud with *no* buy/sell signal adds to the uncertainty, suggesting a possible retracement/consolidation *within* the downtrend. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/891531

@ 94a6a78a:0ddf320e

Nostr is a revolutionary protocol that enables **decentralized, censorship-resistant communication**. Unlike traditional social networks controlled by corporations, Nostr operates without central servers or gatekeepers. This openness makes it incredibly powerful—but also means its success depends entirely on **users, developers, and relay operators**. If you believe in **free speech, decentralization, and an open internet**, there are many ways to support and strengthen the Nostr ecosystem. Whether you're a casual user, a developer, or someone looking to contribute financially, **every effort helps build a more robust network**. Here’s how you can get involved and make a difference. --- ## **1️⃣ Use Nostr Daily** The simplest and most effective way to contribute to Nostr is by **using it regularly**. The more active users, the stronger and more valuable the network becomes. ✅ **Post, comment, and zap** (send micro-payments via Bitcoin’s Lightning Network) to keep conversations flowing.\ ✅ **Engage with new users** and help them understand how Nostr works.\ ✅ **Try different Nostr clients** like Damus, Amethyst, Snort, or Primal and provide feedback to improve the experience. Your activity **keeps the network alive** and helps encourage more developers and relay operators to invest in the ecosystem. --- ## **2️⃣ Run Your Own Nostr Relay** Relays are the **backbone of Nostr**, responsible for distributing messages across the network. The more **independent relays exist**, the stronger and more censorship-resistant Nostr becomes. ✅ **Set up your own relay** to help decentralize the network further.\ ✅ **Experiment with relay configurations** and different performance optimizations.\ ✅ **Offer public or private relay services** to users looking for high-quality infrastructure. If you're not technical, you can still **support relay operators** by **subscribing to a paid relay** or donating to open-source relay projects. --- ## **3️⃣ Support Paid Relays & Infrastructure** Free relays have helped Nostr grow, but they **struggle with spam, slow speeds, and sustainability issues**. **Paid relays** help fund **better infrastructure, faster message delivery, and a more reliable experience**. ✅ **Subscribe to a paid relay** to help keep it running.\ ✅ **Use premium services** like media hosting (e.g., Azzamo Blossom) to decentralize content storage.\ ✅ **Donate to relay operators** who invest in long-term infrastructure. By funding **Nostr’s decentralized backbone**, you help ensure its **longevity and reliability**. --- ## **4️⃣ Zap Developers, Creators & Builders** Many people contribute to Nostr **without direct financial compensation**—developers who build clients, relay operators, educators, and content creators. **You can support them with zaps!** ⚡ ✅ **Find developers working on Nostr projects** and send them a zap.\ ✅ **Support content creators and educators** who spread awareness about Nostr.\ ✅ **Encourage builders** by donating to open-source projects. Micro-payments via the **Lightning Network** make it easy to directly **support the people who make Nostr better**. --- ## **5️⃣ Develop New Nostr Apps & Tools** If you're a developer, you can **build on Nostr’s open protocol** to create new apps, bots, or tools. Nostr is **permissionless**, meaning anyone can develop for it. ✅ **Create new Nostr clients** with unique features and user experiences.\ ✅ **Build bots or automation tools** that improve engagement and usability.\ ✅ **Experiment with decentralized identity, authentication, and encryption** to make Nostr even stronger. With **no corporate gatekeepers**, your projects can help shape the future of decentralized social media. --- ## **6️⃣ Promote & Educate Others About Nostr** Adoption grows when **more people understand and use Nostr**. You can help by **spreading awareness** and creating educational content. ✅ **Write blogs, guides, and tutorials** explaining how to use Nostr.\ ✅ **Make videos or social media posts** introducing new users to the protocol.\ ✅ **Host discussions, Twitter Spaces, or workshops** to onboard more people. The more people **understand and trust Nostr**, the stronger the ecosystem becomes. --- ## **7️⃣ Support Open-Source Nostr Projects** Many Nostr tools and clients are **built by volunteers**, and open-source projects thrive on **community support**. ✅ **Contribute code** to existing Nostr projects on GitHub.\ ✅ **Report bugs and suggest features** to improve Nostr clients.\ ✅ **Donate to developers** who keep Nostr free and open for everyone. If you're not a developer, you can still **help with testing, translations, and documentation** to make projects more accessible. --- ## **🚀 Every Contribution Strengthens Nostr** Whether you: ✔️ **Post and engage daily**\ ✔️ **Zap creators and developers**\ ✔️ **Run or support relays**\ ✔️ **Build new apps and tools**\ ✔️ **Educate and onboard new users** **Every action helps make Nostr more resilient, decentralized, and unstoppable.** Nostr isn’t just another social network—it’s **a movement toward a free and open internet**. If you believe in **digital freedom, privacy, and decentralization**, now is the time to get involved.

@ 16f1a010:31b1074b

In the rapidly evolving world of Bitcoin, running a Bitcoin node has become more accessible than ever. Platforms like Umbrel, Start9, myNode, and Citadel offer user-friendly interfaces to simplify node management. However, for those serious about maintaining a robust and efficient Lightning node ⚡, relying solely on these platforms may not be the optimal choice. Let’s delve into why embracing **Bitcoin Core** and mastering the command-line interface (CLI) can provide a **more reliable, sovereign, and empowering** experience. ### Understanding Node Management Platforms #### What Are Umbrel, Start9, myNode, and Citadel? Umbrel, Start9, myNode, and Citadel are platforms designed to streamline the process of running a Bitcoin node. They offer graphical user interfaces (GUIs) that allow users to manage various applications, including Bitcoin Core and Lightning Network nodes, through a web-based dashboard 🖥️. These platforms often utilize Docker containers 🐳 to encapsulate applications, providing a modular and isolated environment for each service.  #### The Appeal of Simplified Node Management The primary allure of these platforms lies in their simplicity. With minimal command-line interaction, users can deploy a full Bitcoin and Lightning node, along with a suite of additional applications. ✅ **Easy one-command installation** ✅ **Web-based GUI for management** ✅ **Automatic app updates** *(but with delays, as we’ll discuss)* However, while this convenience is attractive, it comes **at a cost**. ### The Hidden Complexities of Using Node Management Platforms While the user-friendly nature of these platforms is advantageous, it can also introduce several challenges that may hinder advanced users or those seeking greater control over their nodes. #### 🚨 Dependency on Maintainers for Updates One significant concern is the reliance on platform maintainers for updates. Since these platforms manage applications through Docker containers, users must wait for the maintainers to update the container images before they can access new features or security patches. 🔴 **Delayed Bitcoin Core updates = potential security risks** 🔴 **Lightning Network updates are not immediate** 🔴 **Bugs and vulnerabilities may persist longer** Instead of waiting on a third party, **why not update Bitcoin Core & LND yourself instantly**? #### ⚙️ Challenges in Customization and Advanced Operations For users aiming to perform advanced operations, such as: * Custom backups 📂 * Running specific CLI commands 🖥️ * Optimizing node settings ⚡ …the **abstraction layers introduced by these platforms become obstacles**. Navigating through nested directories and issuing commands inside Docker containers **makes troubleshooting a nightmare**. Instead of a simple `bitcoin-cli` command, you must figure out how to execute it inside the container, adding unnecessary complexity. #### Increased Backend Complexity To achieve **frontend simplicity**, these platforms make the backend more complex. 🚫 Extra layers of abstraction 🚫 Hidden logs and settings 🚫 Harder troubleshooting The use of **multiple Docker containers**, **custom scripts**, and **unique file structures** can **make system maintenance and debugging a pain**. This **complication defeats the purpose** of “making running a node easy.” ## ✅ Advantages of Using Bitcoin Core and Command-Line Interface (CLI) By installing Bitcoin Core directly and using the command-line interface (CLI), you gain several key advantages that make managing a Bitcoin and Lightning node more efficient and empowering. #### Direct Control and Immediate Updates One of the biggest downsides of package manager-based platforms is the reliance on third-party maintainers to release updates. Since Bitcoin Core, Lightning implementations (such as LND, Core Lightning, or Eclair), and other related software evolve rapidly, waiting for platform-specific updates can leave you running outdated or vulnerable versions. By installing Bitcoin Core directly, you remove this dependency. You can update immediately when new versions are released, ensuring your node benefits from the latest features, security patches, and bug fixes. The same applies to Lightning software—being able to install and update it yourself gives you full autonomy over your node’s performance and security. #### 🛠 Simplified System Architecture Platforms like Umbrel and myNode introduce extra complexity by running Bitcoin Core and Lightning inside Docker containers. This means: * The actual files and configurations are stored inside Docker’s filesystem, making it **harder to locate and manage them manually**. * If something breaks, **troubleshooting is more difficult** due to the added layer of abstraction. * Running commands requires jumping through Docker shell sessions, adding unnecessary friction to what should be a straightforward process. Instead, a direct installation of Bitcoin Core, Lightning, and Electrum Server (if needed) results in a **cleaner, more understandable system**. The software runs natively on your machine, without containerized layers making things more convoluted. Additionally, setting up your own systemd service files for Bitcoin and Lightning** is not as complicated as it seems**. Once configured, these services will run automatically on boot, offering the same level of convenience as platforms like Umbrel but without the unnecessary complexity. #### Better Lightning Node Management If you’re running a **Lightning Network node**, using CLI-based tools provides far more flexibility than relying on a GUI like the ones bundled with node management platforms. 🟢 **Custom Backup Strategies** – Running Lightning through a GUI-based node manager often means backups are handled in a way that is opaque to the user. With CLI tools, you can easily script automatic backups of your channels, wallets, and configurations. 🟢 **Advanced Configuration** – Platforms like Umbrel force certain configurations by default, limiting how you can customize your Lightning node. With a direct install, you have full control over: * Channel fees 💰 * Routing policies 📡 * Liquidity management 🔄 🟢 **Direct Access to LND, Core Lightning, or Eclair** – Instead of issuing commands through a GUI (which is often limited in functionality), you can use: * `lncli` (for LND) * `lightning-cli` (for Core Lightning) …to interact with your node at a deeper level. #### Enhanced Learning and Engagement A crucial aspect of running a Bitcoin and Lightning node is **understanding how it works**. Using an abstraction layer like Umbrel may get a node running in a few clicks, but **it does little to teach users how Bitcoin actually functions**. By setting up Bitcoin Core, Lightning, and related software manually, you will: ✅ Gain practical knowledge of Bitcoin nodes, networking, and system performance. ✅ Learn how to configure and manage RPC commands. ✅ Become less reliant on third-party developers and more confident in troubleshooting. 🎯 **Running a Bitcoin node is about sovereignty – learn how to control it yourself**. ## Become more sovereign TODAY Many guides make this process **straightforward** [K3tan](https://k3tan.com/about) has a fantastic guide on running Bitcoin Core, Electrs, LND and more. - [Ministry of Nodes Guide 2024](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCRbH-IWlcW0g0HCrtI06_ZdVVolUWr39) - You can find him on nostr nostr:npub1txwy7guqkrq6ngvtwft7zp70nekcknudagrvrryy2wxnz8ljk2xqz0yt4x Even with the best of guides, if you are running this software, 📖 **READ THE DOCUMENTATION** This is all just software at the end of the day. Most of it is very well documented. Take a moment to actually read through the documentation for yourself when installing. The documentation has step by step guides on setting up the software. Here is a helpful list: * [Bitcoin.org Bitcoin Core Linux install instructions](https://bitcoin.org/en/full-node#linux-instructions) * [Bitcoin Core Code Repository](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin) * [Electrs Installation](https://github.com/romanz/electrs/blob/master/doc/install.md) * [LND Documentation](https://docs.lightning.engineering/) * [LND Code Repository](https://github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd) * [CLN Documentation](https://docs.corelightning.org/docs/home) * [CLN Code Repository](https://github.com/ElementsProject/lightning) *If you have any more resources or links I should add, please comment them . I want to add as much to this article as I can.*

@ fad5c183:5cb8046b

Bitcoin has been promoted as the ultimate solution to fiat money problems. Its supporters see it as the "salvation of humanity," but a more critical look reveals a less hopeful reality. Throughout this analysis, we will break down its fundamental issues, from its disproportionate energy consumption to its exclusionary system that favors only a few. **1. Bitcoin and Its Irrational Energy Consumption** Bitcoin uses a system called Proof of Work (PoW), in which miners solve extremely complex mathematical problems to validate transactions. This process: Consumes more energy than entire countries, such as Argentina or the Netherlands. Generates no tangible value outside the Bitcoin ecosystem. Has a significant environmental impact, as many mining farms rely on fossil fuels. If Bitcoin's goal is to replace fiat money, is it sustainable for each transaction to consume so much energy? **2. Creation Limit: Is Bitcoin Really for Everyone?** Bitcoin has a fixed limit of 21 million coins, which creates two problems: Early adopters hold most of the supply. Today, a small percentage of addresses control most of the Bitcoin supply. It becomes increasingly difficult to acquire. Latecomers can only buy at inflated prices. Given that the world's population is 8 billion people, if Bitcoin were distributed equally, each person would have only 0.0026 BTC on average. But in reality: Millions of Bitcoin are permanently lost. Wealth concentration follows the same pattern as traditional currencies. **3. Bitcoin Is Not Practical as a Currency** Although Lightning Network and Nostr have made transactions faster and cheaper, Bitcoin’s structural problems remain: Highly volatile. How can you trust a currency that can gain or lose 50% of its value in weeks? Low real-world adoption. Even in El Salvador, where Bitcoin is legal tender, most people still prefer the US dollar. Service centralization. Despite being marketed as decentralized, many users rely on platforms like Binance or Coinbase. **4. Blockchain: Revolution or Overhyped Technology?** Blockchain is often touted as a game-changer, but in practice: Traditional databases are more efficient and faster. Decentralization is partially a myth. Large holders and mining pools control the network. Few real-world use cases outside of cryptocurrency. Many companies that tested blockchain have returned to conventional systems because they are cheaper and more functional. **5. The End of the Cycle: What Happens When All Bitcoin Are Mined?** When the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140, miners will only earn from transaction fees. This raises two scenarios: If fees are low, miners may abandon the network due to lack of incentives. If fees are high, Bitcoin will become too expensive for most users. **Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Salvation or the New Digital Oligarchy?** Bitcoin does not democratize wealth; it simply redistributes it to a new digital elite. Although its advocates present it as an alternative to fiat money, its exclusionary structure and dependence on large players make it replicate the same inequalities as the traditional financial system. If we truly seek a fair financial solution, is Bitcoin the right path or just another way to concentrate power in the hands of a few?

@ f288a224:1da1792c

 First, some context. I'm a child of the original internet chat-rooms on IRC, and I've tried over the last decades different applications and websites that we could all agree are "social media", but until I found NOSTR (Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays) I hadn't had this certainty that this isn't something that I will eventually change for something else. Today, even with all its early stage issues, I have the certainty that NOSTR may be the ULTIMATE and FINAL HOME for my online life. # THE PROBLEMS with the current/old social media landscape  ## I'm tired of moving from one social media to the next. As many of you, in my digital lifetime I've had many accounts that have now become obsolete; and the "content" and followings I created during that time was lost when one tech giant lost over the other, forcing us all to "MOVE" ourselves over to the new, and start building our content and following from scratch. Lately, it's become even worse, where many of us have seen ourselves forced to use and feed more than one social media at a time, since they all serve various purposes, with sometimes diverse functionality, besides all being catered to different segments of people to connect you to (LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Youtube...). How much is too much, though? And how much time should we keep spending re-adapting our content to reach all of our network? For work, I've found myself having to create accounts in several of these giant data hoarding companies, having to build each following from scratch and to create "content" for all, and having to go through the hurdle of posting everything, everywhere, all at once. ## I'm sick of ever-changing terms, conditions and capabilities. Let's be honest, the majority of us have never ever read the full terms and conditions, let alone every time they are updated without us knowing which rights to our data we are giving away, and which terms we are accepting that may be detrimental to us and our mental health. We've learnt to accept that we are in their playground, they make up the rules, and if they choose to change the rules mid-game we just need to swallow it. We literally have no other choice, it's either that or desertion, which basically means walking away from everything we've built on their "public square". So, like a carefully engineered detrimental incentive structure, the more time we spend building on their turf, the more we are tied to them and conditioned to never leave them. The more we build and make them grow on our content, the more we'll lose if or when we drop out. And even if you accept all that and choose to play along, and you do your best to create the most awesome account in the neighborhood, the random changes they make to optimize ad revenue or user attention will inevitably affect you and all your work. If you created all your feed according to Instagram's squares but they choose to change to TikTok style dimensions due to their tech positioning battle with the Chinese giant... You swallow. If you edited your reels according to what you felt was the best 100 seconds video... Not anymore, suddenly 90 seconds is the maximum you're allowed... No appeal, no options. You Swallow. What? Seeing less of the people you actually WANT TO FOLLOW because they decided to clutter your feed with ads and suggestions, guess again: YOU SWALLOW. AREN'T YOU FEELING FULL ENOUGH OF ALL THE SHIT THEY'VE FORCED DOWN YOUR THROAT? Living our digital lives on these platforms feels like standing on ever changing quicksand, never endingly trying to "hack the algorithm" in order to have our content placed in front of the people who should automatically be able to see us from the moment they chose to follow us; and the worst part of it is, you never know when you may lose it all. ## Let's not forget, your social media account is NOT REALLY YOURS. Recently, a friend's social media account was hacked. She didn't know how it happened; all she knew is that she got an email from Meta saying she had acted against community guidelines and her accounts were therefore being removed (the one hacked and all those liked to her email, which meant personal and work accounts). She tried to appeal, to no avail. She hadn't done anything wrong, but suddenly her identity had disappeared from all our feeds, and her content didn't exist anywhere anymore. She lost plenty of photos she had always counted on finding on her Instagram and lost the people she followed and who followed her. It was as if she had never existed on the platform. *(Looks like a good moment to remind you to download all your valued content from the platforms you use in case something like this happens to you)* And this happened to someone who hadn't done anything "to deserve it". It has actually happened to more than one person I know, and every time they've been helpless and had no recourse, and yet, found themselves having to rebuild from scratch on the same platform that de-platformed them, because they had "no other option", and "their friends are there". Many more people have encountered this awful wake up call, some because of a hack, like my friend, others found themselves removed because they posted content critical of the platform... there are so many reasons people have gotten de-platformed and posts have gotten deleted without warning. And every time, we accept it, as if we owe them something; as if we need to settle for this kind of abusive environment that gets rich on our content and attention without having a say in anything. But we do have another option that flips that attention retention model completely on its head and empowers the user. **That option is NOSTR, our exit from the extractive social media silos they have trapped us into.**  # NOSTR: The better social experience for the internet era. NOSTR (Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays) is not a social media app, it's an Internet protocol. It's open source and many many developers around the world are creating apps on top of it and creating THE ULTIMATE SOCIAL MEDIA EXPERIENCE for users. I first heard of NOSTR from Jack Dorsey on what used to be called Twitter, and when I joined it two years ago it was really rough around the edges, but it was FULL OF POTENTIAL and the value proposition was very clear to me from the beginning. ## Firstly, YOU OWN YOUR IDENTITY, that includes your content and your follower list. So, what does owning you identity mean? I guess many of us have thought we owned our identity before, but the reality is that the platforms owned our identities, which is why they could delete or censor us. Owning your identity on NOSTR is empowered by encryption and cryptography. I'm not going to go into the technical part, but to explain as simply as I can, on NOSTR no platform owns your login and password to use on their playground; you can basically use any NOSTR app to create your identity to navigate it. They give you a login (npub) and password (nsec), and the magic part is that you can USE THAT IDENTITY ON ANY NOSTR APP OR WEBSITE, no need to sign up individually on each one. ## Welcome to the beauty of INTEROPERABILITY. I cannot emphasize enough what it feels like to be able to take your identity, your followers, your content and carry it from one app to the other. On NOSTR there is a rich ecosystem of apps and websites that keep growing. We have "clients" that allow you to experience NOSTR in interfaces that could remind you of Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, Substack, Twitch, Clubhouse, Podcast apps and many more. You can find many of them on https://nostrapps.com/ .  With that information in mind, imagine you only needed one user password, your NOSTR nsec, and with that key, you could open you Instagram, or your Twitch or your Substack. And all your followers would be there, and you could choose what type of content you wanted to link to your identity for your followers to find. No longer "find link in bio", or "go to our YouTube channel", everything you post on NOSTR is tied to your identity, and you can post it all with a single set of keys that posts your content "everywhere". And since your content is "in every client", each of YOUR FOLLOWERS CAN CHOOSE if they are more interested in experiencing your photography content "Insta-like" or if they love your "Twitter-esque" notes better. Each user navigates NOSTR with the interface they prefer. *(With great power comes great responsibility, and I feel obligated to tell you that if you ever lose your nsec, no platform is gonna be able to save you. It's like the keys to your house, unless you keep a copy safely, no one can open it for you (there are no locksmiths on NOSTR). And if you leave your keys lying around on a cloud server somewhere, someone may grab your keys, open your house and use it however they want).* The beauty of this interoperability and the fact that my keys open up my identity to all the NOSTR realms is that you don't need to settle for one client. I use 5 to 6 clients regularly everyday depending on the mood I'm in, (or the bugs that still prove this is a nascent ecosystem in development). Some I use when I want a more "Twitter-like" experience, others when I want to browse photos and others just give different algorithms to choose how to view my feed, and the best part is NO ONE CAN CLUTTER MY FEED WITH ADS. I can curate my feed however is most important to me, and each "NOSTR client" is like a different skin that customizes the way I experience the content. However, the most important reason I started to use different NOSTR apps was that when I started, not all apps had zapping integrated. Some still don't, but most do :) ## ZAPS: direct micropayments from your followers.  Zaps are tips that come directly from the people who find value in the shit that you post. They are micropayments in the form of "sats", fractions of ever-increasing in value bitcoin , and a very big reason why I'm spending less and less time on other social media accumulating valueless likes that only feed the algorithm, and more time on NOSTR interacting with humans that post valuable notes hoping the generous souls that run upon their art or creations will find them valuable enough to tip them for it. It's crazy how the type of content you post can change when your incentive is not to feed an algo, but to give real value to other humans around the world and be your most authentic self. Where Twitter/X's algo benefited the type of incendiary content that shocked and outraged people, NOSTR's incentives benefit those who bring most value to the network and their peers. A few sats tip may not seem much, but even if the equivalent of a small zap is merely cents, it feels a whole lot better than any like, and you can count that if the purchasing power of bitcoin continues to accrue, those value-earned tips will too. Many "nostriches" are getting tons of zaps for memes on NOSTR, valuable articles, videos or participation in zapathons .  In NOSTR is where I first heard of the concept "value for value", and the community is very adamant in making "v4v" an alternative to ad revenue driven models. **Because we need to be the change we wanna see in the world**. We've heard it said that if you're not paying for the product, you are the product. And up until now that has meant we felt obliged to accept that since ads were paying the platforms, we were required to give them our attention. But the open source movement thinks we deserve better. We deserve a better Internet, like the decentralized promise we've slowly been robbed of to enrich 10 people out of the work of all of us. If they can't monetize our attention, they got nothing. But why should they monetize it, instead of us?  ## Even with the glitches and bugs, NOSTR ROCKS! The things I've grown to love most about NOSTR are: • Not having the clutter of ads on my feed and being able to ONLY SEE WHAT I CHOOSE TO SEE. • People who are not on NOSTR can ENJOY MY STUFF WITHOUT HAVING TO LOGIN. • Being able to ENJOY ALL THE BENEFITS OF INTEROPERABILITY, and use many NOSTR clients that enrich my user experience knowing I own my identity and that means I'm not locked in, I can move like a bird wherever I decide. • ZAPPING complete strangers that made me laugh, gave me a cool insight or simply made a witty comment. • GETTING TIPPED for memes, articles, photos, videos and any "Notes and Other Stuff" that people have found valuable.  # CONCLUSION: Join us on NOSTR, participate in claiming back your digital life. If you've made it this far in my love letter to NOSTR, thank you for being interested. Curious minds is what the world needs more of &lt;3. NOSTR is an ecosystem that is being built in the open by relentless developers that are continuously striving to out compete each other to offer a better user experience, it's a many headed dragon that has constant upgrades and implementations which benefits us all, and as such it sometimes comes with bugs and glitches. Building the future is always buggy and requires testers and early adopters that help shape the technology in the best way possible, especially if you wanna build outside the incentive models of the devouring giants we're trying to get away from. Being such an open ecosystem can also be overwhelming for a newcomer, where to start? There are so many clients to experience; so here are some of my recommendations. Please, don't feel you need to go through all of them now, start step by step. This article will always be here whenever you need it (this is not Instagram ;) ). ### **Creating your NOSTR identity/account** with a wallet integrated to receive zaps on both Android and iOS: • **YAKIHONNE**: It's a Japanese client that offers a great on-boarding experience. From the app you can create the account and enable a wallet to receive zaps. In it you can view and post short and long form content, images, videos and more. (Once you have the account created on your app, you can also visit the desktop version on https://yakihonne.com/ ) • **PRIMAL**: For a while it has positioned itself as a great on-boarding NOSTR client because it offers the same things as Yakihonne, has an integrated wallet, with the added benefit that you can also "buy sats/bitcoin" directly from its wallet, which can come in handy (it comes with a 15-30% premium, so only use for small amounts). It also has the desktop version at primal.net. ### **My favorite NOSTR iOS PHONE APPS after on-boarding**, in case you wanna hop into different user experiences: • **DAMUS**: created by the original creator of the "ZAP", Will Casarin, it's an iOS simple client that is reliable and fast with notifications. It keeps things simple, mostly focusing on short note content, although you can also see images and short video. But the feed is optimized as a more "Twitter-like" feed. • **NOSTUR**: The iOS phone client that has it all! It's the client I've used that integrates the most of NOSTR's possibilities, you can see all of the mentioned above with the previous clients, but also view LIVE STREAMS, and have multiple accounts set up simultaneously. The enhanced capabilities can sometimes come at the cost of crashing or being slow to load. • **FREERSE**: Nice clean user interface with plenty of functionality, with easy navigation on topics like #art #photography or any other interests. It's my always reliable back-up to upload image content. • **OLAS**: The new kid on the block Olas client, by prolific developer Pablof7z, is trying to take on Instagram and TikTok and has developed a client mainly focused on the visual and photographic part of NOSTR. ### Desktop clients & OTHER GEMS OF THE NOSTR REALM: There is an infinite number of clients for desktop, but I usually find myself on **ditto.pub** or **slidestr.net** for a more visual experience. • **ALBY** is INTEROPERABILITY'S BEST FRIEND. Alby is not a NOSTR client, but it's a browser extension that makes it seamless to jump from one desktop client to another with your wallet and identity without compromising your security.  • **HIVETALK**: A video call client (reminiscent of Zoom) that doesn't track you or spy on you and that enables zapping and many other functionalities during the calls. • **NOSTR NESTS**: Audio spaces client that allows people to listen to conversations, chat within it and zap the people involved. ### if you made it this far, THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. HOPE YOU FOUND VALUE IN IT AND UNDERSTOOD WHY, FOR ME, THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IS BRIGHT, OPEN AND USER-CENTRIC. FUCK THE MIDDLEMEN. 

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

Last night I was reading Jeremiah 24 and I read the parable of the figs. I’ve read this passage many times, but suddenly I saw the irony of the situation. ## The Story of the Good and Bad Figs > After Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon had carried away captive Jeconiah the son of Jehoiakim, king of Judah, and the officials of Judah with the craftsmen and smiths from Jerusalem and had brought them to Babylon, the Lord showed me: behold, two baskets of figs set before the temple of the Lord! One basket had very good figs, like first-ripe figs, and the other basket had very bad figs which could not be eaten due to rottenness. Then the Lord said to me, “What do you see, Jeremiah?” And I said, “Figs, the good figs, very good; and the bad figs, very bad, which cannot be eaten due to rottenness.” > > Then the word of the Lord came to me, saying, “Thus says the Lord God of Israel, ‘**Like these good figs, so I will regard as good the captives of Judah, whom I have sent out of this place into the land of the Chaldeans. For I will set My eyes on them for good, and I will bring them again to this land; and I will build them up and not overthrow them**, and I will plant them and not pluck them up. I will give them a heart to know Me, for I am the Lord; and they will be My people, and I will be their God, for they will return to Me with their whole heart. > > ‘**But like the bad figs which cannot be eaten due to rottenness**—indeed, thus says the Lord—so I will abandon Zedekiah king of Judah and his officials, and **the remnant of Jerusalem who remain in this land and the ones who dwell in the land of Egypt. I will make them a terror and an evil for all the kingdoms of the earth, as a reproach and a proverb, a taunt and a curse in all places where I will scatter them.** I will send the sword, the famine and the pestilence upon them until they are destroyed from the land which I gave to them and their forefathers.’ ” (Jeremiah 24:1-10) {Emphasis mine} God tells Jeremiah about two baskets of figs, one very good and one very bad. He then goes on to describe those Israelites who were kidnapped by Nebuchadnezzar and hauled off to Babylon and those that got to remain in Israel in their homes. Who would you think God was blessing and who would you think God was punishing? I would think the person hauled off into captivity was being punished and the one that got to stay in their comfortable home was being blessed, but it was the opposite. God said, “‘*Like these good figs, so I will regard as good the captives of Judah, whom I have sent out of this place into the land of the Chaldeans. For I will set My eyes on them for good, and I will bring them again to this land; and I will build them up and not overthrow them, and I will plant them and not pluck them up*.” (Jeremiah 24:5b-6) Those that got hauled away were being blessed. They were being protected from the judgment that God was about to bestow on Israel for their sin. It would have been very easy for the captives to moan, “Woe is us. Why would God do such horrible things to us?” even though God was protecting them. It would have been very easy for those who remained to think, “Those captives must have sinned very badly. Luckily, God doesn’t have any problems with me.” Instead God was punishing those who remained in Israel. He said, > But like the bad figs which cannot be eaten due to rottenness—indeed, thus says the Lord—so I will abandon Zedekiah king of Judah and his officials, and the remnant of Jerusalem who remain in this land and the ones who dwell in the land of Egypt. **I will make them a terror and an evil for all the kingdoms of the earth**, as a reproach and a proverb, a taunt and a curse in all places where I will scatter them. **I will send the sword, the famine and the pestilence upon them until they are destroyed from the land** which I gave to them and their forefathers.’  (Jeremiah 24:8-10) {Emphasis mine} While those who weren’t dragged away into captivity were congratulating themselves, the judgment of God fell upon them because they had rejected their God and were depending on the blessings promised to their ancestors. Those who were hauled into captivity were blessed and multiplied and then brought back to the promised land 70 years later. Even when they were not feeling blessed, God told them how to live in order to be blessed. > “Thus says the Lord of hosts, the God of Israel, to all the exiles whom I have sent into exile from Jerusalem to Babylon, ‘Build houses and live in them; and plant gardens and eat their produce. Take wives and become the fathers of sons and daughters, and take wives for your sons and give your daughters to husbands, that they may bear sons and daughters; and multiply there and do not decrease. **Seek the welfare of the city where I have sent you into exile, and pray to the Lord on its behalf; for in its welfare you will have welfare.** (Jeremiah 29:4-7) They were told to be fruitful and multiply in both a financial and a familial way. They were told to work hard while waiting for the fulfillment of God’s promises and in 70 years they and/or their families would return to the promised land. In a like manner, we are to be fruitful and multiply in whatever situation or in whatever country God has placed us. We are to stay faithful to Him and to honor Him in all we do wherever He has placed us. Whether we are literal exiles in a foreign country or not, we are all exiles from heaven waiting for Jesus to return and call us home. We are called to be productive while we wait. ## A Real Life Example of the Good Figs I got to see a similar example in my own life. I went through what most people would call a hellish year in 2015, but every thing that happened was for a blessing and not for a curse. I got to see how trusting in the Lord with all my heart led to blessings I couldn’t imagine. Technically our rough year started in November of 2014 with a flood and that is kind of how the next year felt. We had a house with hot water heat. Our family room had a large volume because the ceiling was two stories high. The room only had two heat registers. When we would get sub zero (F) temperatures, the room would drop in temperature, so we put in a wood and coal stove. It did a such a great job of heating the house that the heat wasn’t turning on and the pipes in the back office froze and burst the pipes. While we were at work, the temperatures warmed up, the pipes defrosted, and the water started streaming out flooding our entire downstairs. We then had get everything off the floor, flood cut the whole downstairs, and put in giant fans for 6 weeks to dry the wet floors and walls. It sounded like a 747 jet was sitting in the living room. I couldn’t hear myself think. It was very stressful, but that was just the beginning. We had a fight with the insurance company for \~8 months. They agreed about everything needing to be fixed, but wanted to pay only about half the cost to fix it. We finally had to break down and hire a lawyer. We settled with the insurance company writing us a check for 90% of the price of repairs. This settlement was a blessing in disguise. Because of the problems with our insurance company, we decided to switch to a new insurer. We set up to switch when our current policy expired. Ten days into our new policy, our house burnt down in a grass fire fueled by 60+ mph winds. In the main part of the house the only things recognizable were the coal stove and a 3 hour rated gun safe (that now looked like a cheap metal cabinet onto which someone dropped a nuclear bomb). We lost all of our physical possessions, but God had a plan. The new insurance company sent their insurance adjuster out right away. In one month they had paid for the house, the trees, the barn, and a year’s rent in a nice rental house. We had more than half of the settlement left from the flood (we had bought a few supplies for fixing the house). Exactly one year and one month later, we moved into our paid off dream home (with a very fire resistant exterior). Of course God didn’t finish His blessings and lessons with the fire, there was more to come. We moved into the rental house. (Ironically I was excited about all of the closet space even though I could fit all of my worldly possessions in a small suitcase. We humans are not always logical and we don’t let go of our physical possessions easily.) A month later, my husband’s car engine blew up. A month after that, my husband ruptured his Achilles tendon, had to go through surgery, and we were unable to travel to see family for Christmas as planned. It seemed like hardship, but the previous hardships had prepared us for this one. The house that burnt down had all of the bedrooms upstairs, all of the living spaces downstairs, and very steep stairs. When my husband ruptured his other Achilles tendon eight years previously, he had to stay on the couch downstairs and couldn’t sleep in his bed. In our new rental house, the master bedroom was on the same level as the living areas and not more than 10 feet away. He could sleep in bed and then use crutches to move to the electric recliner that had been donated to us after the fire. It gently raised and lowered his injured leg. He could sit with us to eat (we set up a table on one side of the recliner) and be with us when we hung out on the couch (on the other side of him). We could talk while I worked in the kitchen. It was so much nicer to take care of him in the rental house than it would’ve been if the same thing had happened, but our house hadn’t burnt down. Through this string of “tragedies,” we learned to trust God through every situation. We learned what was important (people not stuff). We got a nice, optimized, paid-off house. We received a story that we could share with others to bless them and help them trust in God. We grew closer together as a family. All four members of my family agree that if given the chance to make all of these “bad” things not happen, we would not choose to remove them. The blessings we received through them outweigh them more than you can imagine. ## What About You? What about you? Are you gong through hard times? We all do at some point in our lives. Are you looking for the good God is doing or are you blaming God for your hardship? Are you working to make the most of whatever situation you are in or are you seeking your own “better”? My prayer is that God will give you what you need and not what you want and that He will answer your prayers in His best timing. I pray that you will see the wondrous works of God in you and through you and that you will grow in your faith in our very good God. Trust Him! Turn to Him! Rely on Him! God is good, all of the time. Trust Jesus

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

The cryptocurrency world is on the verge of a groundbreaking transformation with the anticipated introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This significant development is set to redefine the realm of crypto-investment, merging the innovative world of digital currencies with the established domain of traditional finance. Bitcoin ETFs represent a monumental shift, not just as a novel investment option, but as a revolutionary bridge connecting the cutting-edge technology of cryptocurrencies with the more familiar territory of stock market investments. This fusion is poised to unlock a new level of accessibility, drawing mainstream investors into the Bitcoin sphere, who were previously hesitant due to the complexities and perceived risks associated with direct cryptocurrency dealings. **Table of Contents** - The Emergence of Bitcoin ETFs - Unveiling Opportunities - Confronting the Dangers - The Road Ahead - Expanding the Horizon - Enhanced Market Dynamics - Technological Advancements - Educational Initiatives - Global Impact - Conclusion - FAQs **The Emergence of Bitcoin ETFs** Bitcoin ETFs are poised to revolutionize the cryptocurrency market. They offer a streamlined avenue for investment in Bitcoin, bypassing the intricacies of direct ownership such as wallet management and key security. This simplicity could democratize Bitcoin investment, potentially enhancing its liquidity and stability. **Unveiling Opportunities** - **Broader Investor Appeal:** Bitcoin ETFs simplify cryptocurrency investment, making it more approachable for the average investor and traditional financial players. This could lead to wider adoption and recognition of Bitcoin as a viable asset class. - **Influx of Institutional Capital:** ETFs could catalyze a surge of institutional funds into the Bitcoin market. Institutions, previously hesitant due to regulatory and security concerns, might view ETFs as a safer investment avenue. - **Market Evolution:** The advent of Bitcoin ETFs signals a maturation of the cryptocurrency market, transitioning towards regulated, mainstream financial products. This evolution could bolster investor confidence and market stability. **Confronting the Dangers** The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is not devoid of risks and challenges. - **Amplified Volatility:** Bitcoin's notorious volatility could be intensified by the influx of new investors via ETFs, particularly if large capital movements occur swiftly. - **Regulatory Hurdles:** The evolving regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies could become more complex with Bitcoin ETFs, inviting stricter regulations that may impact the market dynamics. - **Systemic Implications:** Integrating Bitcoin into the traditional financial system through ETFs could introduce new systemic risks. A significant downturn in Bitcoin's value might have broader implications for investors and funds linked to these ETFs. **The Road Ahead** As the Bitcoin ETF era dawns, investors should exercise caution. The potential of Bitcoin ETFs is substantial, but the accompanying risks warrant serious consideration. Investors should engage in comprehensive research and assess their risk appetite before engaging with these new investment vehicles. **Expanding the Horizon** **Enhanced Market Dynamics** The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could lead to more dynamic market behaviors. As traditional and crypto markets become more intertwined, the impact of global economic events on Bitcoin's price could become more pronounced, leading to new investment strategies and market analysis techniques. **Technological Advancements** The growth of Bitcoin ETFs might spur technological advancements in trading platforms and financial tools. Enhanced security measures, improved trading algorithms, and more sophisticated risk management tools could emerge, catering to the unique needs of cryptocurrency ETFs. **Educational Initiatives** With the growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, there's likely to be an increase in educational resources and initiatives aimed at helping investors understand the nuances of cryptocurrency investments. This could lead to a more informed investor base, capable of making better investment decisions in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies. **Global Impact** The success of Bitcoin ETFs in one region, such as the United States, could encourage other countries to follow suit, leading to a more globalized cryptocurrency market. This could have significant implications for international financial regulations and cooperation. **Conclusion** The potential introduction of Bitcoin ETFs marks a significant milestone in the journey of cryptocurrency investment. While it heralds new opportunities and greater accessibility, it also brings forth challenges and risks that need to be navigated with care. The future of Bitcoin ETFs will hinge on the balance between these opportunities and dangers, and the market's ability to adapt to this new phase of crypto-investment. As we stand at the threshold of this exciting era, the global financial community watches with bated breath, ready to witness the unfolding story of Bitcoin ETFs. **FAQs** **How does a Bitcoin ETF differ from direct Bitcoin investment?** Investing in a Bitcoin ETF means you're investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin as its primary asset, as opposed to buying Bitcoin directly and managing your own digital wallet and security. ETFs are also subject to different regulatory and tax treatments. **What are the benefits of Bitcoin ETFs?** Bitcoin ETFs offer easier access to Bitcoin investment, potentially lower risks compared to direct ownership, and the convenience of trading through traditional investment platforms. **What risks are associated with Bitcoin ETFs?** Risks include the inherent volatility of Bitcoin, potential regulatory changes, and systemic risks if the cryptocurrency market impacts the broader financial system. **Are Bitcoin ETFs available globally?** The availability of Bitcoin ETFs varies by country, depending on the regulatory environment. Some countries may not yet have approved Bitcoin ETFs for trading. **Can Bitcoin ETFs impact the price of Bitcoin?** Yes, Bitcoin ETFs can impact Bitcoin's price as they can increase market liquidity and bring in more institutional investors, potentially leading to price changes. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnews.co](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@croxroadnews](https://www.youtube.com/@croxroadnews)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม BTCUSDT (OKX):** Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) ยังคงแสดงความผันผวนและมีความไม่แน่นอนสูง แม้ว่าแนวโน้มระยะยาว (TF Day) จะยังคงเป็นขาขึ้น *แต่ก็อ่อนแรงลงอย่างเห็นได้ชัด* แนวโน้มระยะกลาง (TF 4H) กลายเป็นขาลงระยะสั้น และแนวโน้มระยะสั้น (TF 15m) ก็เป็นขาลงเช่นกัน สถานการณ์ตอนนี้บ่งบอกถึงแรงขายที่แข็งแกร่ง และมีความเสี่ยงสูงที่จะปรับฐานลงต่อ **วิเคราะห์ทีละ Timeframe:** **(1) TF Day (รายวัน):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/wfDqxmvG/] * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาขึ้น (Uptrend) *อ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก* * **SMC:** * Higher Highs (HH) และ Higher Lows (HL) *เริ่มไม่ชัดเจน* * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านบน *แต่มีการปรับฐานที่รุนแรง* * **Liquidity:** * มี Sellside Liquidity (SSL) อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า (บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000) * มี Buyside Liquidity (BSL) อยู่เหนือ High เดิม * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาหลุด Order Block ขาขึ้น (บริเวณแท่งเทียนสีเขียวก่อนหน้านี้) *สัญญาณลบ* * **EMA:** * ราคา *หลุด* EMA 50 (สีเหลือง) ลงมาแล้ว * EMA 200 (สีขาว) เป็นแนวรับถัดไป * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * *สีแดงยาว* แสดงถึงแรงขายที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างเบาบาง * **แท่งเทียน:** แท่งเทียนล่าสุดเป็นสีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **แนวรับ:** EMA 200, บริเวณ 85,000 - 90,000 (SSL) * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, High เดิม * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาขึ้นอ่อนแรงลงอย่างมาก, ราคาหลุด EMA 50 และ Order Block, Money Flow และ Trend Strength เป็นลบ **(2) TF4H (4 ชั่วโมง):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/WCWYkleo/] * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **Liquidity:** * มี SSL อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า * มี BSL อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า * **ICT:** * **Order Block:** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ขาลงได้ * **EMA:** * ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200 * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างนิ่ง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, บริเวณ Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลงชัดเจน, แรงขายมีอิทธิพล **(3) TF15 (15 นาที):** [https://www.tradingview.com/x/HsgVKFW2/] * **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend) * **SMC:** * Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL) * Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง * **ICT:** * **Order Block** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ได้ * **EMA:** * EMA 50 และ EMA 200 เป็นแนวต้าน * **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย * **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * สีแดง แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง * **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างเบาบาง * **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด * **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block * **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง, แรงขายมีอิทธิพล **สรุปภาพรวมและกลยุทธ์ (BTCUSDT):** * **แนวโน้มหลัก (Day):** ขาขึ้น (อ่อนแรง), *หลุด Order Block* * **แนวโน้มรอง (4H):** ขาลง * **แนวโน้มระยะสั้น (15m):** ขาลง * **Liquidity:** มี SSL ทั้งใน Day, 4H, และ 15m * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **Trend Strength:** 4H, 15m เป็นขาลง * **กลยุทธ์:** 1. **Wait & See (ดีที่สุด):** รอความชัดเจน 2. **Short (เสี่ยง):** ถ้าไม่สามารถ Breakout EMA/แนวต้านใน TF ใดๆ ได้ 3. **ไม่แนะนำให้ Buy:** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจน **คำแนะนำ:** * **ความขัดแย้งของ Timeframes:** Day ยังเป็นขาขึ้น (แต่สัญญาณอ่อน), 4H และ 15m เป็นขาลง * **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes * **ระวัง SSL:** Smart Money อาจจะลากราคาลงไปกิน Stop Loss * **ถ้าไม่แน่ใจ อย่าเพิ่งเข้าเทรด** **Day Trade & การเทรดรายวัน:** * **Day Trade (TF15):** * **Short Bias:** หาจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาเด้งขึ้นไปทดสอบแนวต้าน (EMA, Order Block) * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (Low ล่าสุด) * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจน * **Swing Trade (TF4H):** * **Short Bias:** รอจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาไม่สามารถผ่านแนวต้าน EMA หรือ Order Block ได้ * **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short * **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (EMA 200 ใน TF Day, SSL) * **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจน **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** * **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** มีโอกาสสูงที่ราคาจะถูกลากลงไปแตะ SSL ก่อนที่จะมีการกลับตัว (ถ้ามี) * **False Breakouts:** ระวังการ Breakout หลอกทั้งใน TF15 และ TF4H * **Volatility:** ตลาดคริปโตฯ มีความผันผวนสูง เตรียมพร้อมรับมือกับการเปลี่ยนแปลงของราคาอย่างรวดเร็ว **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ

@ fd78c37f:a0ec0833

In this edition, we invited Kofi and Sean from BitcoinDua to share their journey of introducing Bitcoin to the community and driving its widespread adoption, and discuss how trust and collaboration have played key roles in promoting Bitcoin locally and building a circular economy. **YakiHonne**: Welcome, Kofi. It's truly an honor and a pleasure to have you with us today. Before we begin, let me briefly introduce YakiHonne. YakiHonne is a decentralized media client built on Nostr—a protocol designed to empower freedom of speech through technology. It enables creators to own their voices and assets while offering innovative tools like smart widgets, verified notes, and support for long-form content. Today, we're excited to learn more about your community. Could you please introduce yourself, Kofi? **Kofi**：Hello, I'm Mawufemor Kofi Folivi from Ghana. I'm the founder of the Talent Tahuf Foundation, an NGO, as well as BitcoinDua. The Talent Tahuf Foundation is an incorporated organization and serves as the parent entity for BitcoinDua. We operate in Agbozume, in the Volta region of Ghana. **YakiHonne**: Thank you very much, Kofi.Let's start with the first question: What initially sparked your interest in Bitcoin, and what inspired you to build a community around it? **Kofi**：I'm glad we're revisiting this question, as I've heard it on many podcasts before, and it's a pleasure to share my journey again.I've been working in this space for over 20 years, often with very little support. Through perseverance and hard work, a friend of mine—who serves as the Public Relations Officer for the Africa Bitcoin Conference (ABC)—invited me to attend their 2022 conference. He even purchased a ticket for me, which made the experience even more special. **Kofi**：At the conference, I encountered Bitcoin for the first time in a meaningful way. I had the opportunity to see Jack Dorsey speak and even took a picture with him. Later on, my friend introduced me to Herman Viva, and I mentioned that I run an NGO—a role I've held for many years. **Kofi**：Listening to the discussions about Bitcoin at the conference sparked a realization: perhaps I could contribute to the Bitcoin ecosystem. My friend encouraged me to take action by asking me to "orange pill" someone and onboard a merchant to accept Bitcoin, with the goal of creating a circular economy in our community. I took on this challenge, recorded my progress on video, and shared it with him. His positive response and support, coupled with the trust I've built within my community, further solidified my commitment. **YakiHonne**: It was wonderful to hear that you attended the African Bitcoin Conference—it sounds like an amazing event. I'm really impressed with how effectively you networked and made valuable connections there. I truly appreciate that you're already engaging with merchants and actively encouraging more people to trade and adopt Bitcoin. I know you've already shared how the community started, how he encouraged you to create one and adopt Bitcoin, and how you successfully did that. So now, could you tell us how you managed to attract new members to your community? **Kofi**：To go back to the beginning, we started by organizing growth circles when I returned. These were groups where we focused on activities like aerobics. I used these circles as an opportunity to introduce Bitcoin to people I had already built relationships with. I shared my experience with Bitcoin, showing them how it could be used to buy credit. I demonstrated by purchasing credit for myself and for them, and I gave them cards, allowing them to buy their own credit as well. **Kofi**：This is how it all began. Since we were working with young people who shared the desire to grow together as a community, we emphasized that we didn't need to rely on the government. The national resources are limited, and if you're not close to the government, it’s very hard to benefit from them. We realized it was difficult to wait for the government to support our development. So, we turned to Bitcoin as a tool to help us move forward. This approach helped us establish a platform based on trust within the community. **Kofi**：Now, as an organization, we have the resources to help the community grow and develop skills among our peers. This is how we were able to attract members to our Bitcoin community.  **YakiHonne**: Would you mind sharing with us some of the challenges you faced while starting up the community? **Kofi**：Thank you for asking this question. As I mentioned earlier, since we've already built trust, one thing we faced was that anything new can be quite difficult to introduce. It took some time for people to understand the concept of Bitcoin, especially the idea that it’s money. **Kofi**：We kept repeating the phrase “Bitcoin is money,” but the challenge was that you can’t physically show Bitcoin in the same way you can show traditional money. So, when people asked, “How can I use it to pay?” it became an issue. To address this, I started by onboarding the first merchant. I explained to them, "I’m giving you this Bitcoin to pay for goods, and I’ll give you extra if you accept it." The merchant agreed to take both Bitcoin and fiat currency. **Kofi**：Over time, the merchant saw the value of Bitcoin growing. Eventually, they came to me asking to exchange the Bitcoin for cash. To help, I onboarded them onto BitNob, where they could experience transferring Bitcoin from one wallet to another and even withdrawing it into their local currency or bank account. We completed the transaction, and that became a reference point for everyone else we were working with. **YakiHonne**: The way you approached it—getting a merchant to demonstrate it—really helped build trust. I know many communities face the same issue: how to prove that Bitcoin is real. But over time, we learn how to overcome these challenges. It's really impressive how you handled it? YakiHonne: What principles guide your community, and how do you maintain trust and reliability? I know you’ve mentioned this a bit already, but could you elaborate further? How do you ensure trust and reliability in your discussions? **Kofi**：As humans, we also need to trust our intuition and how we feel about situations. It’s essential to interact with people with integrity. In our community, we are mindful of what we show others, both in actions and in good deeds. If you love someone, you give everything you have to them, and that’s the only way people can truly feel they belong in your circle. This is the key that keeps us moving forward. **Kofi**：The person at the center of everything you’re doing must be trustworthy. And how do you gain trust? You must trust others first. Even if people come with ulterior motives, you should approach them with an open heart, showing love to them just as you do with everyone else. **Kofi**：And when wrongs are committed, it’s important to acknowledge them. If someone points out a mistake you made, accept it, apologize, and move forward. This creates an understanding within the community that we’re not here to harm one another. Trust is built on integrity, and that’s how we maintain it.  **YakiHonne**: That’s very true. It’s much better and easier when you have integrity. Over time, as you prove yourself to be a person of integrity, it naturally builds trust with others. So, how does your community educate its members and keep them updated on Bitcoin developments? How do you approach this? **Kofi**：To engage our community on a larger scale, we believe it's important to stay active and involved. After building trust, we participate in community events, such as sponsoring a football competition and contributing to their local festival. By doing this, the entire community starts seeing Bitcoin as something that can truly improve their lives. **Kofi**：We also established a Bitcoin Education Center, where we invite students from various schools to learn about Bitcoin. But our efforts go beyond just education; we use the resources we gain from Bitcoin to acquire laptops and robotics kits, so that the students can have additional learning opportunities. These activities are incorporated into their school programs, and we encourage their participation through debates and rewarding them with SATS.  **Kofi**：By rewarding them with SATS, they can use these rewards to buy from over 20 merchants we've onboarded, which not only excites the students but also makes their parents curious about Bitcoin. We've even had people at the local market requesting to buy Bitcoin from us. This is how we keep up with Bitcoin’s development and continue to spread its influence in our community. **YakiHonne**: How does your community work with the wider Bitcoin ecosystem? So far, what partnership has had the most positive impact on your community? **Kofi**：Due to the hard work we've been putting in, we were able to attract Bitcoin Beach as one of our major collaborators. We are part of Bitcoin Ekasi. Recently, we were also awarded the Block Discovery Grant of $50,000 from the Bitcoin Foundation. We are using this grant to build a sports complex, which will include a football field, a multi-purpose basketball court, a swimming pool, a children's playground, and more. We've already started this project. These are the key collaborators and supporters we've had in the Bitcoin space, and their support has been invaluable to us.   **YakiHonne**: It’s clear that you guys are doing an amazing job! Your efforts and hard work have truly caught the attention of many communities, and it’s great to see you forming significant partnerships.So, could you share more about the initiatives your community has taken to promote Bitcoin adoption? I know you've mentioned a few already, but would you mind expanding on them a bit more and sharing the results you've seen? **Kofi**：As I mentioned earlier, we are enhancing our capacity by working with school children and teenagers. We also plan to host inter-school competitions, particularly world-class robotics competitions, with the aim of broadening students' perspectives on science and giving them a global view of what's happening in the world. We believe that through these activities, we will be able to engage with a larger society, helping us expand our client base for Bitcoin education and usage. Therefore, we believe this will have a profound impact. As for the activities we are currently working on, they are providing us with opportunities to expand our reach to schools within the community. This will further build trust and deepen our relationships in this regard. **YakiHonne**: I really admire the fact that you have boarded merchants to accept Bitcoin, which is a great step for its adoption. I also like that you've reached out to schools, encouraging community growth, which helps people see more interest and potential in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Now, for our last question of the day, what are the community goals for the next 6 to 12 months, and how do you see it evolving within the Bitcoin space? **Kofi**：So, in the next 6 to 12 months, we plan to complete the sports complex we’re building. We also intend to open it up for social activities, both within our community and beyond. We believe this will create more opportunities for interaction, allowing people who don’t live within our community to learn about Bitcoin, hear about it, and start engaging with it for the greater good. **YakiHonne**: you plan to complete the sports complex and expand your social reach to engage more people, even those outside your local community. This is truly amazing, and the work you’re doing is fantastic. **YakiHonne**: We’ve come to the end of today’s interview, and I’m really happy to have had this conversation with you, Kofi. You’ve shared so much, and I’ve learned a lot. It’s inspiring to see all the great things happening in Ghana, truly wonderful. Thank you, and you’re doing an incredible job. **Sean**：I would say it’s important for us as Africans to continue collaborating within our own communities—whether in a specific community, village, or town. Through collaboration, we can create stronger communities for ourselves. This way, we’ll be able to generate jobs in various fields and develop marketable skills that can be used anywhere in the world. This way, we won’t need to seek opportunities in other countries; we can build those opportunities right here in our own space. **YakiHonne**: It's very true. We can definitely build a better West Africa, a better Africa, and create our own opportunities here. Thank you so much for this interview.

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/890318

@ 5de23b9a:d83005b3

In a digital era that is increasingly controlled by large companies, the emergence of Nostr (Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays) is a breath of fresh air for those who crave freedom of expression. Nostr is a cryptography-based protocol that allows users to send and receive messages through a relay network. Unlike conventional social media such as Twitter or Facebook 1.Full Decentralization: No company or government can remove or restrict content. 2.Sensor-Resistant: Information remains accessible despite blocking attempts. 3.Privacy and Security: Uses cryptography to ensure that only users who have the keys can access their messages.* **

@ 9ea10fd4:011d3b15

This article by Thomas Piketty has, in a way, convinced me that the tariff war will indeed take place. Moreover, the Trumpist nationalism-capitalism he describes—authoritarian and the most aggressively extractivist—places Canada in the position of a coveted target. The fact that “if the Republican Party has become so nationalist and virulent towards the outside world, it is primarily due to the failure of Reagan-era policies, which were supposed to boost growth but instead reduced it and led to the stagnation of incomes for the majority” is of little consolation. \*“Let’s be clear: Trumpist national-capitalism loves to flaunt its strength, but in reality, it is fragile and on edge. Europe has the means to confront it, provided it regains confidence in itself, forges new alliances, and calmly analyzes the strengths and limitations of this ideological framework. Europe is well-positioned for this: it has long based its development on a similar military-extractivist model, for better or worse. After taking control of maritime routes, raw materials, and the global textile market by force, European powers imposed colonial tributes throughout the 19th century on all resistant countries, from Haiti to China to Morocco. On the eve of 1914, they engaged in a fierce struggle for control of territories, resources, and global capitalism. They even imposed tributes on each other, increasingly exorbitant ones—Prussia on France in 1871, then France on Germany in 1919: 132 billion gold marks, more than three years of Germany’s GDP at the time. As much as the tribute imposed on Haiti in 1825, except this time, Germany had the means to defend itself. The endless escalation led to the collapse of the system and European hubris. (…) If we reason in terms of purchasing power parity, the reality is quite different (…) With this measure, we (…) see that China’s GDP surpassed that of the United States in 2016. It is currently more than 30% higher and will reach twice the U.S. GDP by 2035. This has very concrete consequences in terms of influence and investment capacity in the Global South, especially if the United States locks itself into its arrogant and neo-colonial stance. The reality is that the United States is on the verge of losing control of the world, and Trumpist outbursts will change nothing.” https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/02/15/thomas-piketty-trump-s-national-capitalism-likes-to-flaunt-its-strength-but-it-is-actually-fragile_6738187_23.html

@ 0b118e40:4edc09cb

Are we living in his definition of democracy? It’s interesting how political parties can divide a country, especially in democracies where both oppression and individual choice coexist. As I was exploring global economics and political ideologies, I picked up *The Republic* by Plato (again). The first time I read it, I only read the book on the Allegory of the Cave and it felt enlightening. This time around, I read through all the books and I thought to myself : *this is absolutely nuts!* Over 2,000 years ago, *The Republic* imagined a world disturbingly similar to Gattaca or 1984. For a quick rundown, Plato believed in a police state, eugenics, a caste system, and brainwashing people through state-controlled media and education. Sounds wild? I thought so too. And for some reason, Plato had a serious grudge against art. To him, art was deceptive and emotionally manipulative. Maybe because there was a skit making fun of Socrates at that time by Aristophanes (the father of comedy) or maybe because he struggled to deal with emotions, we will never know. Plato obviously wasn’t a fan of democracy as he wanted a dystopian world. But to be fair, he genuinely thought that his ideal world (Kallipolis) was a utopia. Maybe someone who loves extreme order and control might think the same but I sure don’t. His teacher Socrates was also not a fan of democracy because he believed the mass majority were too ignorant to govern and only those intelligent enough could. His student, Aristotle, was more moderate but still critical, seeing democracy as vulnerable to corruption and mob rule. Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle were around the Classical Greek era, 5th to 4th century BC. The idea of democracy existed long before them. The first recorded version was in Athens during the 6th BC, developed by leaders like Solon and Pericles. It was a direct democracy where free male citizens (non-slaves) could vote on laws themselves instead of electing representatives. These guys influenced how we think about democracy today. But looking around, I wonder, did we end up in Plato’s dystopian world? ### **Plato’s take on democracy** Plato’s lack of trust of democracy stemmed from Socrates’ death. Socrates himself was a fierce critic of democracy, as he believed governance should be based on wisdom rather than popularity. Other thinkers, like Pythagoras and Herodotus (father of history), also examined different political systems, but Socrates was the most influential critic. He warned that allowing the uneducated masses to choose leaders would lead to poor governance, as they could be easily swayed by persuasive speakers rather than guided by knowledge. Athenian democracy relied on large citizen juries and was particularly vulnerable to rhetoric and public sentiment. In the end, Socrates became a victim of the very system he criticized. His relentless questioning of widely accepted beliefs, now known as the **Socratic Method**, earned him powerful enemies. Socrates’ constant probing forced them to confront uncomfortable truths. It annoyed people so much, that it eventually led to his trial and execution. Socrates was condemned to death by popular vote. I wonder, if we applied the Socratic Method today to challenge both the left and the right on the merits of the opposing side, would they be open to expanding their perspectives, or would they react with the same hostility? This questioning technique is now also used in some schools and universities as a teaching method, encouraging open-ended discussion where students contribute their own thoughts rather than passively receiving information. But how open a school, system, or educator is to broad perspectives depends largely on their own biases and beliefs. Even with open-ended questions, the direction of the conversation can be shaped by those in charge, potentially limiting the range of perspectives explored. Socrates’ brutal death deeply grounded Plato’s belief that democracy, without intellectual rigor, was nothing but a mob rule. He saw it as a system doomed to chaos, where the unqualified, driven by emotion or manipulated by rhetoric, made decisions that ultimately paved the way for tyranny. ### **The Republic** *The Republic* was written around 375 BC, after the Peloponnesian War. One of its most famous sections is the Allegory of the Cave, where prisoners are stuck watching shadows on a wall, thinking that it’s reality until one breaks free and sees the real world. That’s when the person becomes enlightened, using knowledge and reason to escape ignorance. They return to free others, spreading the truth. I love this idea of breaking free from suppression through knowledge and awareness. But as I went deeper into Plato’s work, I realized what the plot twist was. Plato wrote this book for strict state control. He wanted total control over education, media, and even families like in the book 1984. He argued that people should be sorted into a caste system, typically workers, warriors, and philosopher-kings so that society runs like a well-oiled machine. The “guardians” would police the state and everyone would go through physical and military training. To top it off, kids would be taken away from their parents and raised by the state for the “greater good.” like in the movie Gattaca. If that sounds a little too Orwellian, that’s because it is. Plato believed that only philosophers, the truly enlightened ones from that “cave”, should rule. To him, democracy was a joke, a breeding ground for corruption and tyranny. I found it completely ironic that this book that warns about brainwashing in the Allegory of the Cave also pushes for a state-controlled society, where thinking for yourself isn’t really an option. And yet, looking around today, I wonder, are we really any different? We live in a world where oppression and enlightenment exist side by side. Plato was slightly progressive in that he thought men and women should have equal education, but only for the ruling Guardian class. In *The Republic*, Plato didn’t focus much on economics or capitalism as we understand them today. His philosophies were more concerned with justice, governance, and the ideal structure of society. He did touch on wealth and property, particularly in *The Republic and Laws* but it was more on being against wealth accumulation by rulers (philosopher-kings had to live communally and without private property). While these ideas echo elements of socialism, he never outlined a full economic system like capitalism or socialism. ### **The hatred for art** Plato was deeply skeptical of art. He believed that it appealed to emotions over rational thought and distorted reality. In *The Republic* (Book X), he argued that art is an imitation of an imitation, pulling people further from the truth. If he had his way, much of modern entertainment, including poetry, drama, and even certain types of music, would not exist in their expressive forms. Despite Plato’s distrust of the arts, his time was a golden age for Greek drama, sculpture, and philosophy. Ironically, the very city where he built his Academy, Athens, was flourishing with the kind of creativity he wanted to censor. Even medicine, which thrived under Hippocrates (the father of medicine), was considered an art requiring lifelong mastery. His quote, ‘**Life is short, and art is long**,’ reflects the long span of time it takes to cultivate and appreciate knowledge and skills, which was something Plato valued. Yet, he dismissed most art as a distraction from truth. Plato particularly criticized poets and playwrights like Homer, as he claimed they spread false ideas about gods and morality. He was also wary of Aristophanes, as he believed his work stirred emotions rather than encouraging rational thought. It probably did not help that Aristophanes mocked Socrates in his play *The Clouds*, which may have influenced Plato’s views. What’s clear is that Plato didn’t hate art because he didn’t understand it. He deeply understood the power of storytelling and its ability to mold societal beliefs. He argued for banning poets entirely from his “ideal city” to prevent them from misleading the public. But he did value some forms of art. After all, he was a writer himself, and writing is a form of art. He approved of artistic expressions that promoted moral and intellectual virtue, such as hymns, architecture, and patriotic poetry, as long as they served the greater purpose of instilling order and wisdom in society. ### **Plato’s five regimes** Plato believed governments naturally decay over time, moving from order to chaos. He outlined five regimes, which he considers each to be worse than the last. 1. *Aristocracy (Philosopher-King rule)* : This is his pitch, the ideal state, ruled by wise elites who value knowledge over power. Some aspects of modern authoritarian states echo this model 2. *Timocracy (Military rule)* : A government driven by honor and discipline, like Sparta. Over time, ambition overtakes virtue, leading to oligarchy. 3. *Oligarchy (Rule by the wealthy)* : The rich seizes power and deepens inequality. Many democracies today show oligarchic tendencies, where money dominates politics. 4. *Democracy (Rule by the masses)* : The people overthrow the elites, prioritizing freedom over order. But without stability, democracy becomes fragile, and vulnerable to demagogues and external manipulation. 5. *Tyranny (Dictatorship)* : When democracy collapses, a charismatic leader rises, promising order but seizing absolute power. What begins as freedom ends in oppression. Modern politics seems stuck in a cycle, shifting between democracy, oligarchy, and authoritarian control. If Plato was right, no system is permanent and only the illusion of stability remains. ### **Does Plato’s ideal state exist in any country today?** Some aspects of modern *benevolent dictatorships*, like Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew, or *socialist states* like China, may resemble Plato’s vision in their emphasis on elite rule, long-term planning, and state control. But, these governments operate pragmatically, balancing governance with economic power, political strategy, and public influence rather than strictly adhering to philosophical ideals. Could this be compared to Taliban rule, given the censorship, authoritarian control, and rigid social hierarchy? While there are superficial similarities, the key difference is that Plato valued knowledge, reason, and meritocracy, while the Taliban enforced religious fundamentalism and theocratic rule. Plato’s Kallipolis also included some level of gender equality for the ruling class, whereas the Taliban’s system is heavily restrictive, especially toward women. While Plato’s ideas echo in certain authoritarian-leaning states, his rigid caste system, philosopher-led governance, and rejection of democracy set his vision apart from any modern political system. ### **Aristotle’s take on democracy** Aristotle wasn’t Athenian, but he documented and analyzed 158 constitutions, including Athenian democracy. He studied at Plato’s Academy for over 20 years, growing up in a world influenced by Athens’ democratic experiment. He lived through the tail end of Athens’ golden age, witnessed its decline, and experienced how different forms of rule influenced politics and the mindset of the people under them. For Aristotle, governments were good or corrupted. The good ones were monarchs, aristocracy (wise elites), and polity (a constitutional gov’t where the middle class keeps power balanced). The corrupted ones were tyranny (monarchy gone wrong), oligarchy, and democracy. Aristotle saw how democracy, if unchecked, could spiral into chaos or be co-opted by populist leaders. But unlike Plato, who rejected democracy outright, Aristotle believed it could work if properly structured. His concept of ‘**polity**’ was a constitutional government that balanced democratic participation with stability, relying on a strong middle class to prevent both mob rule and elite domination. This idea of checks and balances, a mixed government, and middle-class stability make polity the closest to modern constitutional democracies today when compared to all 3 of the Greek philosophers. ### **What happened after Athens?** Of course, democracy didn’t end with Athens, it evolved over time. After Athens’ golden age came Alexander the Great (Aristotle’s student and the king of Macedonia). He conquered Greece, Persia, Egypt, and part of India, creating the largest empire of his time. After his death in 323 BCE, his empire split among his generals, marking the beginning of the Hellenistic period. Rome saw a shift from the fall of the Roman Republic to the rise of the Roman Empire under Augustus moving away from democratic ideals to centralized rule. But the Western Roman Empire fell about 500 years later largely due to internal decline and invasions by the Germanic Tribes (modern-day Sweden, Switzerland, Germany). The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire, based in Constantinople or modern-day Turkey) rose and survived for nearly 1,000 more years until it fell to the Ottoman Turks in 1453. During the Medieval period (5th–15th century), Europe saw a rise in monarchies and feudalism. Power shifted to kings, nobles, and the church, with little direct participation from ordinary people. Some democratic elements survived in places like Venice and Florence, where wealthy merchant families controlled city-states. By the 17th century, democracy started creeping back into political thought, though not without skepticism. Machiavelli and Hobbes weren’t exactly fans of democracy, but they had plenty to say about power and governance. Later on Machiavelli hinted on the possible idea of a republic/mixed government in the *Discourses of Livy * Meanwhile, England was going through its own struggles with power. The English Civil War (1642–1651) was a showdown between King Charles I, who wanted absolute power, and Parliament, which wanted more influence. Charles ignored Parliament and was executed in 1649. England briefly became a republic under Oliver Cromwell, but the monarchy returned after his death. In 1688, the Glorious Revolution forced King James II (Charles I’s son) to flee to France. Parliament then invited William of Orange (a Dutch Protestant) and his wife Mary to take the throne. In 1689, they signed the English Bill of Rights, which limited the monarchy’s power, strengthened Parliament, and guaranteed certain rights to citizens. This was a significant moment in history as it effectively ended the absolute monarchy and established a constitutional monarchy in England. The American Revolution in 1776 and the French Revolution in 1789 pushed democratic ideals forward but still excluded women, slaves, and the poor. Historian Luciano Canfora, in his book* Democracy in Europe*, argues that early liberal democracy was full of contradictions as it preached equality, yet economic and social exclusion remained. (Note: If you want to understand the history of *anarchism*, the French Revolution is a key starting point. It influenced early anti-authoritarian thought, which later evolved into socialist and anti-capitalist movements. Over time, libertarians adopted anarchist principles, leading to the development of anarcho-capitalism. The concept of anarchism in politics has taken nearly two centuries to emerge in its modern form). The 19th and 20th centuries saw the expansion of democracy. But as Canfora explains it, it also saw its exploitation and manipulation. Although industrialization and social movements pushed for broader suffrage, democracy remained controlled by elites who feared true mass participation. Democracy became a tool for maintaining power rather than a true expression of the people’s will. According to Canfora, the Cold War turned democracy into a geopolitical tool, with Western powers supporting or opposing democratic movements based on strategic interests rather than principles. Today, there are many versions of democracy from direct democracy to representative democracy, presidential democracy, social democracy, religious democracy, constitutional democracy, communist democracy, and more. And is often viewed as a brand name for “good governance”. But are they? ### **In the end, was Plato right?** At a meta level, Plato’s argument was about control, be it controlling what people read, hear, and even think. The debate often centers on curated knowledge vs rhetoric. Plato believed that absolute obedience would bring harmony, even at the cost of individuality. Today, we call that totalitarian or dictatorship But when we take a second look at things, are we already living in Plato’s world? Governments across the globe control education, influence media narratives, and regulate speech. Many so-called democracies aren’t as free as they claim to be. So maybe Plato’s influence on modern democracies runs deeper than we realize. Another key debate today is that, unlike Plato’s time, most people *are* educated. However, much of this education is still designed by state systems, which can influence how people think and vote. How do we balance empowering people through education while ensuring true independence in a system built on critical thinking rather than one that merely feeds information? Truth is, democracy has never been a pure, people-driven system. It has always been influenced by power struggles, wealth, and manipulation. Often it has been an instrument of control rather than liberation. Yet, the people have always resisted. In the past, they gathered in the streets, risking tear gas, rubber bullets or being dragged into Black Marias. Today, digital activism has allowed for mass mobilization with fewer risks. In many countries especially in third-world countries, online movements on platforms like Twitter during Jack’s time, forced governments to overturn policies. This may be the closest we've come to real democracy which is direct action without the usual state violence. But with this rise in digital activism comes the counterforce through government and corporate requirements for censorship, algorithmic manipulation, and the quiet steering of public discourse. Platforms once seen as tools of liberation can become tools of control. *Facebook mood experiment* in 2012 tested positive and negative content on 700,000 people and proved emotions can be manipulated at scale. *Cambridge Analytica* was exposed in its attempt to manipulate votes. This is where decentralized networks like Nostr matter as a fundamental resistance to centralized control over speech. If democracy is to return to the people, it must also break free from algorithmic gatekeepers and censorship. Because the so-called ‘ignorant masses’, the very people Plato dismissed, are the ones who fight for freedom. Because real democracy isn’t about control. It’s about freedom. It’s about choice. It’s about the people, always.