@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

It seems like most Christians today have lost their reverence and awe of God. We’ve attributed God’s awesome creation by the word of His mouth to random chance and a Big Bang. We’ve attributed the many layers of sediment to millions and billions of years of time instead of God’s judgment of evil. We’ve emphasized His love and mercy to the point that we’ve forgotten about His holiness and righteous wrath. We’ve brought God down to our level and made Him either our “buddy” or made Him our magic genie servant, who is just there to answer our every want and whim.

The God of the Bible is a holy and awesome God who should be both loved and feared.

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge;\ Fools despise wisdom and instruction. (Proverbs 1:7)

The God of the Bible is the Lord of Lords and King of Kings who “… upholds all things by the word of His power. …” (Hebrews 1:3). Yes, God loves us as sons. Yes, God is merciful. Yes, through Jesus we have the blessed opportunity to approach God directly. None of that means we get to treat God like just another friend. We are to approach God with fear and trembling and worship Him in reverence and awe.

Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. (Psalm 2:11)

Part of the problem is that our culture just doesn’t show reverence to authority. It focuses on self and freedom. The whole thought of reverence for authority is incomprehensible for many. Look at this Psalm of worship:

The Lord reigns, let the peoples tremble;\ He is enthroned above the cherubim, let the earth shake!\ The Lord is great in Zion,\ And He is exalted above all the peoples.\ Let them praise Your great and awesome name;\ Holy is He. (Psalm 99:1-3)

This is the way we should view God and the proper attitude for approaching God.

Another issue is that we don’t study what God has done in the past. In the Old Testament, God commanded the Israelites to setup monuments of remembrance and to teach their kids all of the great things God had done for them. When they failed to do so, Israel drifted astray.

You shall teach them to your sons, talking of them when you sit in your house and when you walk along the road and when you lie down and when you rise up. (Deuteronomy 11:19)

God has given us the Bible, His word, so that we can know Him, know His character, and know His great deeds. When we fail to be in His word daily, we can forget (or not even know) the greatness of our God.

Establish Your word to Your servant,\ As that which produces reverence for You. (Psalm 119:38)

Do you love God’s word like this? Do you hunger for God’s word? Do you seek to know everything about God that you can know? When we love someone or something, we want to know everything about it.

Princes persecute me without cause,\ But my heart stands in awe of Your words.\ **I rejoice at Your word,\ As one who finds great spoil. \ (Psalm 119:161-162) {emphasis mine}

In addition to what we can learn about God in the Bible, we also need to remember what God has done in our own lives. We need to dwell on what God has done for us. We can just try to remember. Even better (I’ll admit this is a weakness for me), write down answered prayers, blessings, and other things God has done for you. My son has been writing down one blessing every day for over a year. What an example he is!

After we have thought about what God has done for us and those we care about, we should praise Him for His great works.

Shout joyfully to God, all the earth;\ Sing the glory of His name;\ Make His praise glorious.\ Say to God, “How awesome are Your works!\ Because of the greatness of Your power \ Your enemies will give feigned obedience to You.\ All the earth will worship You,\ And will sing praises to You;\ They will sing praises to Your name.” Selah.\ **Come and see the works of God,\ Who is awesome in His deeds toward the sons of men. \ (Psalm 66:1-5) {emphasis mine}

There is nothing we can do to earn salvation from God, but we should be in awe of what He has done for us leading to submission and obedience in gratitude.

Therefore, since we receive a kingdom which cannot be shaken, let us show gratitude, by which we may offer to God an acceptable service with reverence and awe; for our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29) {emphasis mine}

Are you thankful for your blessings or resentful for what you don’t have? Do you worship God or take things He has provided for granted? Do you tell the world the awesome things God has done for you or do you stay silent? Do you claim to be a Christian, but live a life no different than those around you?

Then the Lord said,

“Because this people draw near with their words\ And honor Me with their lip service,\ But they remove their hearts far from Me,\ And their reverence for Me consists of tradition learned by rote, (Isaiah 29:13)

I hope this passage does not describe your relation ship with our awesome God. He deserves so much more. Instead we should be zealous to praise God and share His goodness with those around us.

Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be troubled, but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; (1 Peter 3:13-15) {emphasis mine}

Did you know that you can even show reverence by your every day work?

By faith Noah, being warned by God about things not yet seen, in reverence prepared an ark for the salvation of his household, by which he condemned the world, and became an heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. (Hebrews 11:7) {emphasis mine}

When Noah stepped out in faith and obedience to God and built the ark as God commanded, despite the fact that the people around him probably thought he was crazy building a boat on dry ground that had never flooded, his work was a kind of reverence to God. Are there areas in your life where you can obey God in reverence to His awesomeness? Do you realize that quality work in obedience to God can be a form of worship?

Just going above and beyond in your job can be a form of worship of God if you are working extra hard to honor Him. Obedience is another form of worship and reverence.

Then Zerubbabel the son of Shealtiel, and Joshua the son of Jehozadak, the high priest, with all the remnant of the people, obeyed the voice of the Lord their God and the words of Haggai the prophet, as the Lord their God had sent him. And the people showed reverence for the Lord. (Haggai 1:12) {emphasis mine}

Too many people have put the word of men (especially scientists) above the word of God and have tried to change the clear meaning of the Bible. I used to think it strange how the Bible goes through the days of creation and ends each day with “and there was evening and there was morning, the xth day.” Since a day has an evening and a morning, that seemed redundant. Why did God speak in this manner? God knew that a day would come when many scientist would try to disprove God and would claim that these days were not 24 hour days, but long ages. When a writer is trying to convey long ages, the writer does not mention evening/morning and doesn’t count the days.1

When we no longer see God as speaking the universe and everything in it into existence, we tend to not see God as an awesome God. We don’t see His power. We don’t see His knowledge. We don’t see His goodness. We also don’t see His authority. Why do we have to obey God? Because He created us and because He upholds us. Without Him we would not exist. Our creator has the authority to command His creation. When we compromise in this area, we lose our submission, our awe, and our reverence. (For more on the subject see my series.) When we believe His great works, especially those spoken of in Genesis 1-11 and in Exodus, we can’t help but be in awe of our God.

For the word of the Lord is upright,\ And all His work is done in faithfulness.\ He loves righteousness and justice;\ The earth is full of the lovingkindness of the Lord.\ By the word of the Lord the heavens were made,\ And by the breath of His mouth all their host.\ He gathers the waters of the sea together as a heap;\ He lays up the deeps in storehouses.\ **Let all the earth fear the Lord;\ Let all the inhabitants of the world stand in awe of Him. \ (Psalm 33:4-8) {emphasis mine}

Remembering God’s great works, we can’t help but worship in awe and reverence.

By awesome deeds You answer us in righteousness, O God of our salvation,\ *You who are the trust of all the ends of the earth* and of the farthest sea;\ Who establishes the mountains by His strength,\ Being girded with might;\ Who stills the roaring of the seas,\ The roaring of their waves,\ And the tumult of the peoples.\ They who dwell in the ends of the earth stand in awe of Your signs;\ You make the dawn and the sunset shout for joy. \ (Psalm 65:5-8) {emphasis mine}

If we truly do have awe and reverence for our God, we should be emboldened to tell those around us of His great works.

I will tell of Your name to my brethren;\ In the midst of the assembly I will praise You.\ You who fear the Lord, praise Him;\ All you descendants of Jacob, glorify Him,\ And stand in awe of Him, all you descendants of Israel. \ (Psalm 22:22-23) {emphasis mine}

May God grant you the wisdom to see His awesomeness and to trust Him, serve Him, obey Him, and worship Him as He so rightly deserves. May you always have a right view of God and a hunger for His word and a personal relationship with Him. To God be the Glory!

Trust Jesus

FYI, these are a few more passages on the subject that are helpful, but didn’t fit in the flow of my post.

Great is the Lord, and highly to be praised,\ And His greatness is unsearchable.\ One generation shall praise Your works to another,\ And shall declare Your mighty acts.\ On the glorious splendor of Your majesty\ And on Your wonderful works, I will meditate.\ Men shall speak of the power of Your awesome acts,\ And I will tell of Your greatness. (Psalm 145:3-6)

The boastful shall not stand before Your eyes;\ You hate all who do iniquity.\ You destroy those who speak falsehood;\ The Lord abhors the man of bloodshed and deceit.\ But as for me, by Your abundant lovingkindness I will enter Your house,\ At Your holy temple I will bow in reverence for You. (Psalm 5:5-7) {emphasis mine}

If you do not listen, and if you do not take it to heart to give honor to My name,” says the Lord of hosts, “then I will send the curse upon you and I will curse your blessings; and indeed, I have cursed them already, because you are not taking it to heart. Behold, I am going to rebuke your offspring, and I will spread refuse on your faces, the refuse of your feasts; and you will be taken away with it. Then you will know that I have sent this commandment to you, that My covenant may continue with Levi,” says the Lord of hosts. “My covenant with him was one of life and peace, and I gave them to him as an object of reverence; so he revered Me and stood in awe of My name. (Malachi 2:2-5) {emphasis mine}

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Die zwei mächtigsten Krieger sind Geduld und Zeit. \ Leo Tolstoi

Zum Wohle unserer Gesundheit, unserer Leistungsfähigkeit und letztlich unseres Glücks ist es wichtig, die eigene Energie bewusst zu pflegen. Das gilt umso mehr für an gesellschaftlichen Themen interessierte, selbstbewusste und kritisch denkende Menschen. Denn für deren Wahrnehmung und Wohlbefinden waren und sind die rasanten, krisen- und propagandagefüllten letzten Jahre in Absurdistan eine harte Probe.

Nur wer regelmäßig Kraft tankt und Wege findet, mit den Herausforderungen umzugehen, kann eine solche Tortur überstehen, emotionale Erschöpfung vermeiden und trotz allem zufrieden sein. Dazu müssen wir erkunden, was uns Energie gibt und was sie uns raubt. Durch Selbstreflexion und Achtsamkeit finden wir sicher Dinge, die uns erfreuen und inspirieren, und andere, die uns eher stressen und belasten.

Die eigene Energie ist eng mit unserer körperlichen und mentalen Gesundheit verbunden. Methoden zur Förderung der körperlichen Gesundheit sind gut bekannt: eine ausgewogene Ernährung, regelmäßige Bewegung sowie ausreichend Schlaf und Erholung. Bei der nicht minder wichtigen emotionalen Balance wird es schon etwas komplizierter. Stress abzubauen, die eigenen Grenzen zu kennen oder solche zum Schutz zu setzen sowie die Konzentration auf Positives und Sinnvolles wären Ansätze.

Der emotionale ist auch der Bereich, über den «Energie-Räuber» bevorzugt attackieren. Das sind zum Beispiel Dinge wie Überforderung, Perfektionismus oder mangelhafte Kommunikation. Social Media gehören ganz sicher auch dazu. Sie stehlen uns nicht nur Zeit, sondern sind höchst manipulativ und erhöhen laut einer aktuellen Studie das Risiko für psychische Probleme wie Angstzustände und Depressionen.

Geben wir negativen oder gar bösen Menschen keine Macht über uns. Das Dauerfeuer der letzten Jahre mit Krisen, Konflikten und Gefahren sollte man zwar kennen, darf sich aber davon nicht runterziehen lassen. Das Ziel derartiger konzertierter Aktionen ist vor allem, unsere innere Stabilität zu zerstören, denn dann sind wir leichter zu steuern. Aber Geduld: Selbst vermeintliche «Sonnenköniginnen» wie EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen fallen, wenn die Zeit reif ist.

Es ist wichtig, dass wir unsere ganz eigenen Bedürfnisse und Werte erkennen. Unsere Energiequellen müssen wir identifizieren und aktiv nutzen. Dazu gehören soziale Kontakte genauso wie zum Beispiel Hobbys und Leidenschaften. Umgeben wir uns mit Sinnhaftigkeit und lassen wir uns nicht die Energie rauben!

Mein Wahlspruch ist schon lange: «Was die Menschen wirklich bewegt, ist die Kultur.» Jetzt im Frühjahr beginnt hier in Andalusien die Zeit der «Ferias», jener traditionellen Volksfeste, die vor Lebensfreude sprudeln. Konzentrieren wir uns auf die schönen Dinge und auf unsere eigenen Talente – soziale Verbundenheit wird helfen, unsere innere Kraft zu stärken und zu bewahren.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.

Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.

He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.

Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.

I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.

It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.

So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.

@ 26769dac:498e333b

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Information ohne Reflexion ist geistiger Flugsand. \ Ernst Reinhardt

Der lateinische Ausdruck «Quo vadis» als Frage nach einer Entwicklung oder Ausrichtung hat biblische Wurzeln. Er wird aber auch in unserer Alltagssprache verwendet, laut Duden meist als Ausdruck von Besorgnis oder Skepsis im Sinne von: «Wohin wird das führen?»

Der Sinn und Zweck von so mancher politischen Entscheidung erschließt sich heutzutage nicht mehr so leicht, und viele Trends können uns Sorge bereiten. Das sind einerseits sehr konkrete Themen wie die zunehmende Militarisierung und die geschichtsvergessene Kriegstreiberei in Europa, deren Feindbildpflege aktuell beim Gedenken an das Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs beschämende Formen annimmt.

Auch das hohe Gut der Schweizer Neutralität scheint immer mehr in Gefahr. Die schleichende Bewegung der Eidgenossenschaft in Richtung NATO und damit weg von einer Vermittlerposition erhält auch durch den neuen Verteidigungsminister Anschub. Martin Pfister möchte eine stärkere Einbindung in die europäische Verteidigungsarchitektur, verwechselt bei der Argumentation jedoch Ursache und Wirkung.

Das Thema Gesundheit ist als Zugpferd für Geschäfte und Kontrolle offenbar schon zuverlässig etabliert. Die hauptsächlich privat finanzierte Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) ist dabei durch ein Netzwerk von sogenannten «Collaborating Centres» sogar so weit in nationale Einrichtungen eingedrungen, dass man sich fragen kann, ob diese nicht von Genf aus gesteuert werden.

Das Schweizer Bundesamt für Gesundheit (BAG) übernimmt in dieser Funktion ebenso von der WHO definierte Aufgaben und Pflichten wie das deutsche Robert Koch-Institut (RKI). Gegen die Covid-«Impfung» für Schwangere, die das BAG empfiehlt, obwohl es fehlende wissenschaftliche Belege für deren Schutzwirkung einräumt, formiert sich im Tessin gerade Widerstand.

Unter dem Stichwort «Gesundheitssicherheit» werden uns die Bestrebungen verkauft, essenzielle Dienste mit einer biometrischen digitalen ID zu verknüpfen. Das dient dem Profit mit unseren Daten und führt im Ergebnis zum Verlust unserer demokratischen Freiheiten. Die deutsche elektronische Patientenakte (ePA) ist ein Element mit solchem Potenzial. Die Schweizer Bürger haben gerade ein Referendum gegen das revidierte E-ID-Gesetz erzwungen. In Thailand ist seit Anfang Mai für die Einreise eine «Digital Arrival Card» notwendig, die mit ihrer Gesundheitserklärung einen Impfpass «durch die Hintertür» befürchten lässt.

Der massive Blackout auf der iberischen Halbinsel hat vermehrt Fragen dazu aufgeworfen, wohin uns Klimawandel-Hysterie und «grüne» Energiepolitik führen werden. Meine Kollegin Wiltrud Schwetje ist dem nachgegangen und hat in mehreren Beiträgen darüber berichtet. Wenig überraschend führen interessante Spuren mal wieder zu internationalen Großbanken, Globalisten und zur EU-Kommission.

Zunehmend bedenklich ist aber ganz allgemein auch die manifestierte Spaltung unserer Gesellschaften. Angesichts der tiefen und sorgsam gepflegten Gräben fällt es inzwischen schwer, eine zukunftsfähige Perspektive zu erkennen. Umso begrüßenswerter sind Initiativen wie die Kölner Veranstaltungsreihe «Neue Visionen für die Zukunft». Diese möchte die Diskussionskultur reanimieren und dazu beitragen, dass Menschen wieder ohne Angst und ergebnisoffen über kontroverse Themen der Zeit sprechen.

Quo vadis – Wohin gehen wir also? Die Suche nach Orientierung in diesem vermeintlichen Chaos führt auch zur Reflexion über den eigenen Lebensweg. Das ist positiv insofern, als wir daraus Kraft schöpfen können. Ob derweil der neue Papst, dessen «Vorgänger» Petrus unsere Ausgangsfrage durch die christliche Legende zugeschrieben wird, dabei eine Rolle spielt, muss jede/r selbst wissen. Mir persönlich ist allein schon ein Führungsanspruch wie der des Petrusprimats der römisch-katholischen Kirche eher suspekt.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 26769dac:498e333b

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Du bist recht appetitlich oben anzuschauen, \ doch unten hin die Bestie macht mir Grauen. \ Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Wie wenig bekömmlich sogenannte «Ultra-Processed Foods» wie Fertiggerichte, abgepackte Snacks oder Softdrinks sind, hat kürzlich eine neue Studie untersucht. Derweil kann Fleisch auch wegen des Einsatzes antimikrobieller Mittel in der Massentierhaltung ein Problem darstellen. Internationale Bemühungen, diesen Gebrauch zu reduzieren, um die Antibiotikaresistenz bei Menschen einzudämmen, sind nun möglicherweise gefährdet.

Leider ist Politik oft mindestens genauso unappetitlich und ungesund wie diverse Lebensmittel. Die «Corona-Zeit» und ihre Auswirkungen sind ein beredtes Beispiel. Der Thüringer Landtag diskutiert gerade den Entwurf eines «Coronamaßnahmen-Unrechtsbereinigungsgesetzes» und das kanadische Gesundheitsministerium versucht, tausende Entschädigungsanträge wegen Impfnebenwirkungen mit dem Budget von 75 Millionen Dollar unter einen Hut zu bekommen. In den USA soll die Zulassung von Covid-«Impfstoffen» überdacht werden, während man sich mit China um die Herkunft des Virus streitet.

Wo Corona-Verbrecher von Medien und Justiz gedeckt werden, verfolgt man Aufklärer und Aufdecker mit aller Härte. Der Anwalt und Mitbegründer des Corona-Ausschusses Reiner Fuellmich, der seit Oktober 2023 in Untersuchungshaft sitzt, wurde letzte Woche zu drei Jahren und neun Monaten verurteilt – wegen Veruntreuung. Am Mittwoch teilte der von vielen Impfschadensprozessen bekannte Anwalt Tobias Ulbrich mit, dass er vom Staatsschutz verfolgt wird und sich daher künftig nicht mehr öffentlich äußern werde.

Von der kommenden deutschen Bundesregierung aus Wählerbetrügern, Transatlantikern, Corona-Hardlinern und Russenhassern kann unmöglich eine Verbesserung erwartet werden. Nina Warken beispielsweise, die das Ressort Gesundheit übernehmen soll, diffamierte Maßnahmenkritiker als «Coronaleugner» und forderte eine Impfpflicht, da die wundersamen Injektionen angeblich «nachweislich helfen». Laut dem designierten Außenminister Johann Wadephul wird Russland «für uns immer der Feind» bleiben. Deswegen will er die Ukraine «nicht verlieren lassen» und sieht die Bevölkerung hinter sich, solange nicht deutsche Soldaten dort sterben könnten.

Eine wichtige Personalie ist auch die des künftigen Regierungssprechers. Wenngleich Hebestreit an Arroganz schwer zu überbieten sein wird, dürfte sich die Art der Kommunikation mit Stefan Kornelius in der Sache kaum ändern. Der Politikchef der Süddeutschen Zeitung «prägte den Meinungsjournalismus der SZ» und schrieb «in dieser Rolle auch für die Titel der Tamedia». Allerdings ist, anders als noch vor zehn Jahren, die Einbindung von Journalisten in Thinktanks wie die Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft (DAG) ja heute eher eine Empfehlung als ein Problem.

Ungesund ist definitiv auch die totale Digitalisierung, nicht nur im Gesundheitswesen. Lauterbachs Abschiedsgeschenk, die «abgesicherte» elektronische Patientenakte (ePA) ist völlig überraschenderweise direkt nach dem Bundesstart erneut gehackt worden. Norbert Häring kommentiert angesichts der Datenlecks, wer die ePA nicht abwähle, könne seine Gesundheitsdaten ebensogut auf Facebook posten.

Dass die staatlichen Kontrolleure so wenig auf freie Software und dezentrale Lösungen setzen, verdeutlicht die eigentlichen Intentionen hinter der Digitalisierungswut. Um Sicherheit und Souveränität geht es ihnen jedenfalls nicht – sonst gäbe es zum Beispiel mehr Unterstützung für Bitcoin und für Initiativen wie die der Spar-Supermärkte in der Schweiz.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 51bbb15e:b77a2290

Yeah, I’m sure everything in the file is legit. 👍 Let’s review the guard witness testimony…Oh wait, they weren’t at their posts despite 24/7 survellience instructions after another Epstein “suicide” attempt two weeks earlier. Well, at least the video of the suicide is in the file? Oh wait, a techical glitch. Damn those coincidences!

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility with me on anything related to the Epstein case and his clients. I still suspect the administration is using the Epstein files as leverage to keep a lot of RINOs in line, whereas they’d be sabotaging his agenda at every turn otherwise. However, I just don’t believe in ends-justify-the-means thinking. It’s led almost all of DC to toss out every bit of the values they might once have had.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus

Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Die Wahrheit verletzt tiefer als jede Beleidigung. \ Marquis de Sade

Sagen Sie niemals «Terroristin B.», «Schwachkopf H.», «korrupter Drecksack S.» oder «Meinungsfreiheitshasserin F.» und verkneifen Sie sich Memes, denn so etwas könnte Ihnen als Beleidigung oder Verleumdung ausgelegt werden und rechtliche Konsequenzen haben. Auch mit einer Frau M.-A. S.-Z. ist in dieser Beziehung nicht zu spaßen, sie gehört zu den Top-Anzeigenstellern.

«Politikerbeleidigung» als Straftatbestand wurde 2021 im Kampf gegen «Rechtsextremismus und Hasskriminalität» in Deutschland eingeführt, damals noch unter der Regierung Merkel. Im Gesetz nicht festgehalten ist die Unterscheidung zwischen schlechter Hetze und guter Hetze – trotzdem ist das gängige Praxis, wie der Titel fast schon nahelegt.

So dürfen Sie als Politikerin heute den Tesla als «Nazi-Auto» bezeichnen und dies ausdrücklich auf den Firmengründer Elon Musk und dessen «rechtsextreme Positionen» beziehen, welche Sie nicht einmal belegen müssen. [1] Vielleicht ernten Sie Proteste, jedoch vorrangig wegen der «gut bezahlten, unbefristeten Arbeitsplätze» in Brandenburg. Ihren Tweet hat die Berliner Senatorin Cansel Kiziltepe inzwischen offenbar dennoch gelöscht.

Dass es um die Meinungs- und Pressefreiheit in der Bundesrepublik nicht mehr allzu gut bestellt ist, befürchtet man inzwischen auch schon im Ausland. Der Fall des Journalisten David Bendels, der kürzlich wegen eines Faeser-Memes zu sieben Monaten Haft auf Bewährung verurteilt wurde, führte in diversen Medien zu Empörung. Die Welt versteckte ihre Kritik mit dem Titel «Ein Urteil wie aus einer Diktatur» hinter einer Bezahlschranke.

Unschöne, heutzutage vielleicht strafbare Kommentare würden mir auch zu einigen anderen Themen und Akteuren einfallen. Ein Kandidat wäre der deutsche Bundesgesundheitsminister (ja, er ist es tatsächlich immer noch). Während sich in den USA auf dem Gebiet etwas bewegt und zum Beispiel Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will, dass die Gesundheitsbehörde (CDC) keine Covid-Impfungen für Kinder mehr empfiehlt, möchte Karl Lauterbach vor allem das Corona-Lügengebäude vor dem Einsturz bewahren.

«Ich habe nie geglaubt, dass die Impfungen nebenwirkungsfrei sind», sagte Lauterbach jüngst der ZDF-Journalistin Sarah Tacke. Das steht in krassem Widerspruch zu seiner früher verbreiteten Behauptung, die Gen-Injektionen hätten keine Nebenwirkungen. Damit entlarvt er sich selbst als Lügner. Die Bezeichnung ist absolut berechtigt, dieser Mann dürfte keinerlei politische Verantwortung tragen und das Verhalten verlangt nach einer rechtlichen Überprüfung. Leider ist ja die Justiz anderweitig beschäftigt und hat außerdem selbst keine weiße Weste.

Obendrein kämpfte der Herr Minister für eine allgemeine Impfpflicht. Er beschwor dabei das Schließen einer «Impflücke», wie es die Weltgesundheitsorganisation – die «wegen Trump» in finanziellen Schwierigkeiten steckt – bis heute tut. Die WHO lässt aktuell ihre «Europäische Impfwoche» propagieren, bei der interessanterweise von Covid nicht mehr groß die Rede ist.

Einen «Klima-Leugner» würden manche wohl Nir Shaviv nennen, das ist ja nicht strafbar. Der Astrophysiker weist nämlich die Behauptung von einer Klimakrise zurück. Gemäß seiner Forschung ist mindestens die Hälfte der Erderwärmung nicht auf menschliche Emissionen, sondern auf Veränderungen im Sonnenverhalten zurückzuführen.

Das passt vielleicht auch den «Klima-Hysterikern» der britischen Regierung ins Konzept, die gerade Experimente zur Verdunkelung der Sonne angekündigt haben. Produzenten von Kunstfleisch oder Betreiber von Insektenfarmen würden dagegen vermutlich die Geschichte vom fatalen CO2 bevorzugen. Ihnen würde es besser passen, wenn der verantwortungsvolle Erdenbürger sein Verhalten gründlich ändern müsste.

In unserer völlig verkehrten Welt, in der praktisch jede Verlautbarung außerhalb der abgesegneten Narrative potenziell strafbar sein kann, gehört fast schon Mut dazu, Dinge offen anzusprechen. Im «besten Deutschland aller Zeiten» glaubten letztes Jahr nur noch 40 Prozent der Menschen, ihre Meinung frei äußern zu können. Das ist ein Armutszeugnis, und es sieht nicht gerade nach Besserung aus. Umso wichtiger ist es, dagegen anzugehen.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

--- Quellen: ---

[1] Zur Orientierung wenigstens ein paar Hinweise zur NS-Vergangenheit deutscher Automobilhersteller:

• Volkswagen
• Porsche
• Daimler-Benz
• BMW
• Audi
• Opel
• Heute: «Auto-Werke für die Rüstung? Rheinmetall prüft Übernahmen»

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ c9badfea:610f861a

1. Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
3. When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
4. Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
5. Disable Send Usage Statistics
6. Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!

ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Alexa Rodrian. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

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Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

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„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.

Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.

Hier zum Nachhören:

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian

Dieser Beitrag erschien zuerst auf Radio München.

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Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Ukraine is reportedly about to make history by becoming the first country in Europe to have a national bitcoin reserve, a move aimed at strengthening its economy during the war with Russia.

The plan is still in its early stages and Binance, the world’s largest digital asset exchange, is involved.

According to Incrypted, a Ukrainian digital asset news outlet, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, First Deputy Chairman of the Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee, confirmed that the draft law is almost ready and will be submitted to the parliament soon.

“We will soon submit a draft law from the industry allowing the creation of crypto reserves,” Zheleznyak told Incrypted.

Earlier discussions mentioned a broader “crypto reserve” but the current plan is focused on bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. If approved, the law will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to hold bitcoin as part of the country’s official reserves.

Since the war with Russia started, Ukraine has become one of the most bitcoin-friendly countries in the world.

In 2022 and 2023 Ukraine raised over $100 million in digital asset donations for defense and humanitarian purposes. A report from Chainalysis ranked the country among the top 10 countries for bitcoin adoption globally.

A rather vague and unconfirmed report by BitcoinTreasuries.net states that “holdings of public officials” currently stand at 46,351 BTC.

Ukraine bitcoin holdings as reported by BitcoinTreasuries

Supporters of the bitcoin reserve say it will help Ukraine protect its economy from war-related instability, inflation and currency depreciation.

By going digital, the government is looking for modern tools to strengthen its financial system in uncertain times. This is not just about storing bitcoin, it’s about establishing clear laws for digital assets ownership, management and use.

Binance is playing an advisory role in the project. The company has worked with Ukraine on digital asset education and regulations in the past and is now helping to shape the legal framework for the bitcoin reserve.

Kirill Khomyakov, Binance’s regional head for Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa, confirmed the company’s support, but warned it won’t be fast or easy.

“The creation of such a reserve will require significant changes in legislation,” Khomyakov said. “Another positive aspect is that this initiative will likely lead to greater clarity in the regulation of crypto assets in Ukraine.”

Despite the support from some officials, there are legal hurdles. Ukrainian laws don’t allow bitcoin to be in the official reserves. So the government needs to pass new laws for it to happen.

Efforts to legalize bitcoin in general have been going on for years. In 2021, a draft law on virtual assets was approved by Finance Committee but was withdrawn after the President’s Office and financial regulators objected.

Up to now, over 80 amendments have been proposed, showing how complicated the process is.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation is leading a larger reform that could introduce rules for digital asset exchanges, tax laws and anti-money laundering standards in the country.

Ukraine isn’t alone in considering bitcoin as a national reserve asset. In March 2025, the U.S. announced its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using BTC seized in criminal cases.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

It wasn’t so long ago that the mainstream conversation around population was exclusively focused on the dangers of overpopulation. The fatal flaws in the Malthusian theory had yet to be disproven clearly and obviously by observable demographic trends. That’s been gradually changing, and while it’s hardly a mainstream consensus, concerns about falling birthrates and the risk of population collapse have taken over the population conversion on the political right, and sometimes beyond.

There’s no questioning the data at this point. Fertility rates over most of the world have been in precipitous decline, and if the current trajectory continues, global population will peak very soon and fall rather dramatically. And even the falling population itself is much less of a threat than the aging population that will inevitably precede it. Having a large cohort of older and retired people and a small cohort of young workers is an existential threat to the modern welfare state, and to the entire credit-based fiat monetary system that supports it. But that’s a subject for another day.

There are a multitude of different theories that attempt to explain why this is happening. I’ll name some of the most common ones:

• Increased education and employment opportunities for women

• Urbanization

• Economic factors

• Access to contraception

• Changing social and cultural norms

• Delayed marriage

• Improvements in infant mortality rates

• Government policies

• Environmental concerns

• Pornography

• Feminism

• Endocrine disrupting chemicals

• Dating apps

Most rational thinkers agree there must be multiple factors playing a role. But the fact that the problem is so wide-spread, and populations that seem to be resisting the trend are so rare, shows that the strongest underlying factors are cross-culturally powerful and not easily resisted or reversed with marginal cultural differences and standard public policy efforts.

While populations that resist the trend are rare, they are not quite non-existent. A few groups stand out for their persistently high fertility rates. On a geographic basis, sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region still maintaining above-replacement fertility rates. For various reasons, I don’t think Africa is the most useful place to look for answers on what’s causing the decline elsewhere or how it could be reversed. One reason is that Africa seems to be following the global pattern, just with a lag. In another few decades the data may look very different, just like it does for South America today compared to 20 years ago.

In my opinion, a more useful place to look for data is in smaller population sub-groups within a geographic area that have fertility rates significantly higher than the general population levels. Rural populations in general have higher fertility rates than urban populations, but the difference isn’t really enough to consider it significant. The groups that fit this category well seem to be exclusively religious. These include certain Christian denominations in the traditional Anabaptist category including the Amish, Mennonites, and Hutterites, Muslims in some areas, and Jews, particularly the most orthodox sects. Mormons recently fell out of the high-fertility religious group category, which would also make for some interesting research.

It would be fascinating to compare these groups and see what they have in common outside just being religious in nature. I don’t have the knowledge to make that comparison. Instead, I’m going to focus on the group that’s often referenced and analyzed by people without much personal knowledge, the Amish.

I have read numerous articles and comments that reference the Amish to support this or that theory on the cause of falling fertility. One thing I notice is an obvious lack of understanding of the Amish culture, which leads to faulty arguments that don’t reflect reality. This isn’t surprising, given the insular and poorly-understood nature of the culture, the plethora of ridiculously incorrect “Amish” reality TV shows and pop culture myths, and the fact that the number of people with firsthand knowledge of Amish culture from an insider perspective who also write about demographic trends on any public platform is probably zero.

Well, was zero. I’m about to make that one.

My Qualifications

Since I’m claiming to have this knowledge, it’s only fair to give a little background as to how I got it. I choose to stay anonymous on the internet, and given that this is personal information that could make it significantly easier to dox me, I’ll be deliberately vague.

My parents were both born in Amish families. They didn’t stay, opting to leave the Amish church and culture before getting married and starting their family. My grandparents were all Amish, and all my cousins and most of my extended family remain Amish to this day. My parents didn’t move out of the Amish community, staying in the area and joining a conservative Mennonite church that was about the closest thing to being Amish without actually being Amish. The Mennonite community has a generally good relationship with and a lot of respect for the Amish community, given their deep similarities and shared history and cultural background.

I grew up interacting regularly with Amish relatives, neighbors and community members, speaking the Pennsylvania Dutch my parents taught us and used exclusively at home. I’m very certain that a real deep understanding of Amish culture is almost impossible without speaking their language, just like many other cultures around the world. The Amish speak English as their second language, but there are aspects of their culture that aren’t spoken about in English.

This lifelong proximity to and interaction with the Amish community has, I believe, given me some unique insights into the factors supporting their high fertility rates that no amount of academic research will ever uncover.

Who are the Amish?

First, some basics.

The Amish are a traditionalist Christian denomination. The way to understand the Amish is as a religious denomination first, and a culture second. Getting the two mixed up makes it impossible to understand why the Amish live the way they do.

Sure, their unique lifestyles makes them noteworthy as a group. But that lifestyle is based on and maintained by their religious beliefs and convictions.

Fundamentally, the Amish attempt to live out the Gospel as Jesus taught in the Sermon on the Mount. They believe their church has done so historically, and that the best way to make sure they keep doing so in the future is to view any changes to their traditional lifestyle with extreme skepticism and resistance.

The two primary doctrines that separate them from the mainstream Protestant Reformation, which is their group’s origin, are the doctrines of nonconformity and nonresistance. They apply the doctrine of nonconformity, the command to “be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God” in both a spiritual and a practical sense. They believe that Christians are to be radically different from non-Christians, both in their beliefs and attitudes, and in their lifestyle and appearance. And they apply the command to “resist not evil”, nonresistance, to mean that it’s a sin to use physical force or violence against another person for any reason whatsoever. They don’t make any exception for military service of any type, which they object to as a matter of conscience, or for self-defense, which they refuse to engage in even if it means death for themselves or their family.

The Amish do not practice infant baptism. Their young people must choose to be baptized and formally become members of the church, usually in their late teens or early twenties. As part of the baptism ceremony, they make a vow to remain faithful to God and the church until death. The Amish, as a church, interpret this vow to mean that the new church member will remain a member of the Amish church for life. Leaving the Amish church after making this vow and being baptized is viewed as breaking the vow, and is the justification for their practice of shunning, or the ban. Those who do so are cut off from contact with the community in various ways. Typically they won’t eat a meal with a shunned person, ride in a car a shunned person is driving, or do business with a shunned person. That includes immediate family. Failure to enforce this shunning against someone, even your own child, can result in running afoul of the church leadership and also being excommunicated and shunned.

This punishment, however, only applies to people who leave the church after baptism. Those young people who choose not to be baptized and leave the church instead are free to be treated just like any other non-Amish person, although their family essentially disown them and treat them like a shunned person anyway, if they’re especially strict and upset about the betrayal of Amish values.

Most Amish people don’t believe that the Amish are the only true church, or that only Amish people are true Christians. Most are accepting of other conservative Anabaptist denominations, and respect their values and practices as a different but valid way to be Christian. Church teaching strongly suggests that those who fall under the ban are living in sin and won’t make it to heaven. Most individuals, though, probably wouldn’t agree with that in every case if they were free to give their true opinion on the issue.

The Amish maintain a fertility rate of around 6 to 7 children per woman. Some recent research suggests this may be starting to fall somewhat, but the data isn’t extensive enough to make a solid judgement yet.

There are a wide variety of different “flavors” of Amish in different areas of the US, a fact they’re very aware of. The data strongly indicates that the most conservative and technologically primitive communities have slightly higher fertility rates and significantly higher retention rates of young people.

Why do the Amish Maintain High Fertility Rates?

Okay, enough background. Time to dive into the reasons I believe the Amish maintain their historically high fertility rate despite living in a developed, modern economy surrounded by people with dramatically sub-replacement fertility rates.

I thought long and hard about the best way to approach this. Going through a list of factors topically seemed like the obvious one. But the more I thought it through, the less I liked it. For one, how do you arrange the factors? Order of importance? How do you decide that? Also, the factors are so inter-related that they’ll be very tough to separate and understand individually. Finally, it seems dry and boring. Nobody needs that.

So I’m going to try something different. I’m going to approach it from a narrative angle. I’ll try to describe the life of a typical Amish person, from birth to death, in a chronological way. That’s the best approach to present it in a way that makes the culture relatable, while also tying the different factors together logically.

I’ll describe the experience for both men and women as best I can, and try to present the various factors encouraging high fertility as I see them at the appropriate part of the story.

This will likely be an article that gets revised later to address any questions that come up, so don’t consider it the final word on the subject.

Alright, time to get started.

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First off, this might seem obvious, but the typical Amish baby is born into a large family. On average, they’ll have 5 or 6 siblings, and more is not at all uncommon. Families of 10 won’t raise an eyebrow, and 12-16 children aren’t unheard of, especially in the past when mortality was higher and second marriages were more common among younger widowers who went on to have children with their second wife. Humans are social creatures, and the environment and people we grow up surrounded by have a strong influence on our frame of reference. Studies have shown that women are very unlikely to have more children than their mother had. The number of siblings in your family, and in families you observe and interact with, doesn’t determine the number of children you will have, but it does strongly influence the number of children you feel is a “normal” amount. That makes it a kind of ratchet effect, where it’s very unlikely that a generation raised in homes with one or two children will go on to have larger families of their own collectively.

This cultural norm of large families establishes a kind of inertia that normalizes high fertility right from birth. Amish children grow up surrounded by siblings, observing, and as they get older, helping with the care and maintenance of a large family. All their relatives, cousins and extended family are also likely to belong to large families. The average Amish child grows up with dozens of first cousins, and sometimes hundreds of more distant cousins, many of whom they likely know well and socialize with regularly. This experience establishes a mental framework where a large family is assumed to be the default. And there is no stronger human tendency than the urge to fit in with the people around you.

Amish children grow up with strong gender norms taught from a very young age. The Amish culture follows strict and conservative gender roles. Boys and men do male things, girls and women do female things, and there is little effort or desire to create any overlapping space.

Boys grow up doing traditionally masculine things. They play outside, do chores on the farm, help their dad with his work, probably get a BB gun before age 10, go hunting and fishing, play sports, and generally prepare for a lifetime of physical labor and providing for a wife and family.

Girls grow up doing traditionally feminine things. They help care for younger siblings, help with housework, play with dolls, learn to cook and preserve food, learn to sew, and generally prepare for a lifetime of caring for and raising children and maintaining a large household.

It’s a common misconception that the Amish are mostly farmers who live off the land, subsistence style. That’s not at all accurate. While there are still Amish who make their living farming, at least in some areas, that has become the exception. The large scale of modern agriculture means it takes a lot of acres and a lot of machinery to run a profitable commercial farming operation. The Amish reject the use of most modern agricultural machinery, which makes them uncompetitive in commercial agriculture outside more niche markets like dairy, produce, or greenhouses. And the fact that they live in small geographic communities with large families means they quickly buy up all available farmland in an area until they price themselves out of the market. Prime farmland in heavy Amish farming communities like Lancaster, Pennsylvania routinely sells for over $25,000 per acre, which is more than a commercial crop farming operation might bring in over a lifetime.

So the Amish have moved away from a primarily agriculture based economy to various other occupations. In some areas they work in RV factories. Most work in trades, primarily construction. Many are masons, carpenters, cabinet builders, mechanics, welders, etc.

But they reject the ownership of cars, so they still use their characteristic horses and buggies for transportation. In reality, they use cars for most of their transportation needs. But they don’t own cars or have driver’s licenses, so they rely on “Amish taxi drivers” to chauffer them around. The men hire a driver to take them to and from work, if they work in construction or some other job outside the home. The women hire a driver take them to town for their shopping or for other errands. The exception is church. They’re still required to drive to church in a horse and buggy, so every family must keep a horse for that reason, as a bare minimum. In many cases that’s the only time they ever use a horse and buggy, and if it weren’t for that requirement they wouldn’t own one at all.

But that requirement means every Amish family must own enough land to keep a horse, which takes a few acres and a small barn at minimum. This forces them to live in rural areas and raise their families in a somewhat agricultural environment, even if their occupation wouldn’t require that at all. So there are always chores for the children, animals to care for, and space to play outside with their siblings.

Amish children grow up with very limited exposure to mainstream cultural pressures. Their mothers inevitably raise them at home until they start school. They don’t have TV or cell phones, so they aren’t exposed to any mainstream culture on a daily basis.

The Amish have their own schools, typically small one room schools within walking distance of all the families who attend. The teachers are often young single people, always Amish. They primarily teach basic academics: reading, writing, arithmetic, geography, history, etc. While the Amish speak both English and Pennsylvania Dutch, many Amish children are first exposed to English on a daily basis when they start school. School is taught in English, although there is limited teaching of the High German the Amish use in their church services.

Amish children attend school until 8th grade. The schools run the minimum number of days required by the state, usually 160. There is no higher education beyond grade 8. No Amish attend college.

Amish children are taught from little up that they are not like other people. The differences between their culture and mainstream culture are emphasized, and Amish culture is praised as the ideal, at a religious level. They're taught that the way to do what’s right is to do what the church asks, and those who don’t do what the church asks are in the wrong.

The Amish rate and describe everyone on a scale from “high” to “low”. A person who isn’t Amish, who isn’t a Christian, is a “high” person, or an “English” person. To go from being Amish to being “English” is the worst, most damning, failure imaginable. The Amish are “low” people. The more strict and traditional an Amish sect, the “lower” they are. Being “low” is seen as a virtue. Other conservative Christian denominations, particularly other Anabaptist groups, are also considered “low” people and generally viewed favorably, but they aren’t as “low” as the Amish.

Amish boys grow up expecting to start work full time at age 14, and to work at some type of trade or physical labor. There are no white-collar career tracks, essentially. Entrepreneurship is encouraged, and many young Amish men start their own construction crew or home business in their 20s or 30s after a few years of experience working for someone else. Often Amish boys start off working for and with their dad, in whatever trade or business he operates. But if they’re not interested in that particular occupation, they’re free to find another. Amish businesses and tradesmen are always willing to hire young Amish boys and train them in a craft. A good work ethic is considered a virtue, and Amish are known for their skilled craftsmanship and willingness to work harder than the competition. These traits are taught and encouraged from little on up.

Amish men as a whole do very well financially. For one, they start working and developing skills and work ethic a decade earlier than the typical college graduate. The trades pay well, and of course anyone could take advantage of that, but the mainstream narrative discourages men from pursuing a trade career by labeling it low status and keeping them in education until their prime years to gain a work ethic are past. It’s not uncommon for young Amish men just out of 8th grade to land a job on a carpentry crew for $25-30 an hour. With bonuses, some of them are bringing in $90k/year before age 20. Another advantage young Amish men have is lower expenses. They can certainly find places to spend their money, typically hobbies like hunting and fishing, but things like expensive designer clothes and accessories or overpriced car payments aren’t really an option. They also benefit from the Amish exemption to Social Security taxes. The Amish don’t pay into or collect Social Security. More on that later, but it helps immensely to keep more of your paycheck in your early prime working years.

Amish girls grow up expecting to get married at a young age and raise a large family as a traditional housewife. Amish girls aren’t encouraged to have a “career”, and the idea would be silly to them. They are expected to work, but the work is either helping their mom with the household, working on the family farm or business, or doing something like teaching school or working at an Amish farmer’s market to pass the time between leaving school and marriage. It’s never viewed as a permanent occupation, because marriage and motherhood is the default aspirational lifestyle. A common job for young Amish girls is working as a “maid” to help a new mother with housework at the end of pregnancy and for the first few months after childbirth. All new mothers can get this type of help if they want, and it will usually be a younger sister, cousin, or niece of appropriate age. Otherwise the community will find a suitable girl who’s available for the job. A “maid” will sometimes travel to a different Amish community for this reason, given how large extended families are and how frequently Amish families move across the country to a different community. This is often an opportunity for them to attract the attention of a young man outside their local community, and is one of the only ways for a long-distance relationship and marriage to begin.

Amish young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, with very few exceptions. They’re also typically expected to work for their dad in the family business for no pay, and to give any earnings they make at a day job outside the home to their parents. This is typically expected until age 21, or until they get married, whichever comes first. More recently, with the rising cost of land and housing, it’s becoming more common to make age 18 the cutoff. And when a young couple is engaged, the parents typically allow them to start saving their income for their future household. This practice helps parents offset some of the expenses of raising such large families, along with the fact that no money is spent on higher education. It also provides one strong incentive to marry as early as possible.

Amish culture revolves around family and the community. Extended families are large, and people are expected to know and interact with their family. Conversation with a stranger at a social event invariably starts by asking their name, then asking who their parents, grandparents, and other relatives are until some distant family connection or a mutual acquaintance is found. Since the Amish community has a small pool of family names, and tends to heavily favor certain Biblical first names, enough people end up with the same name to make things really confusing. People are often identified by two or three generations of their family, for example “Sam Yoder’s John’s Amos” for an Amos Yoder who’s father was John Yoder and grandfather Sam Yoder.

Social activities are either family events or church events, or both. Weddings and funerals are the main social functions other than church services, and people are expected to attend as many as possible among their family and extended family, regardless of the distance. Given the large family sizes, most Amish have dozens of first cousins and many more distant cousins. Weddings and funerals can be almost weekly events. These are church events as well, so much of the local Amish community will usually attend. It will be an all day event, with the women and girls preparing a lunch and dinner for everyone. After the meal, the women and girls will wash the dishes and clean up, while the men sit around and talk. No cell phones, remember. Talking is the main form of social interaction. Topics typically include work, family news, hunting and fishing stories (Amish men hunt and fish with the same enthusiasm typical American men watch sports), horses, and interesting or funny stories about family and friends. Those with a knack for entertaining oratory are well respected and appreciated in the Amish community.

Of course the women do their fair share of talking as well, in the kitchen while cleaning up after the meal, and later in the living room where they join the men after the domestic work is done. The main topics of conversation always revolve around family, immediate and extended. News travels through the Amish community faster than any social media platform, because nothing builds Amish female status more than being the first to call with the news that great uncle so-and-so was injured in a farming accident or nephew so-and-so has a new baby, along with all the pertinent details about the name, size, and health of the baby and how the mother is doing and how many grandchildren that makes in total for the lucky grandparents.

While the adults are talking, the children are free to play either inside or preferably outside. Trampolines, climbing trees, playing in the hayloft, tag, volleyball, and softball are favorite activities at various ages. The younger boys and girls typically play together, but as they get older the girls spend more time visiting while the boys prefer more structured sports. Softball is a game for boys, but volleyball is popular with mixed teams of boys and girls at any age.

Visiting relatives or other community families is also a popular social activity, especially on “in-between Sunday”. The Amish have church every other week, and the week without church is often an opportunity to visit another family. Invitations are not expected or required, and anyone stopping by will be expected to stay for dinner and into the evening. At these type of events, the older children are often expected to sit and visit with the adults. Sitting still and being quiet are mandatory skills, since church services are 2 hours or longer and held in barns or sheds without air conditioning filled with backless wooden benches. Self-discipline is not an optional virtue, because the alternative is physical discipline.

As Amish young people enter their mid teen years, they go from childhood to youth. At a certain age, usually around 15 or 16, they officially become youth and enter the stage everyone is familiar with, “rumspringa”. That’s a Pennsylvania Dutch word that translates to “running around”. The Amish use it more as a verb, but pop culture has adopted it as a noun based on some wildly inaccurate reality TV shows and depictions.

The reality is, rumspringa varies widely from community to community, mostly based on what the parents and church leaders tolerate. Remember that Amish church membership is a fully voluntary decision, and Amish young people are free to join or not, as they decide. Late teens is the typical age for that decision. In the meantime, they are free to make their own decisions, subject to their parents’ rules. Breaking the rules can mean that at some point, they won’t be welcome to live in their parents’ household any more. That’s a fairly strong deterrent to the most extreme infractions.

At this stage, young Amish men will be buying their own horse and buggy, and both boys and girls will be permitted to attend the Sunday night “singing”. This is a social activity held at someone's house on Sunday evening, involving all the youth in the community coming together for dinner, playing volleyball, and singing German hymns together. The purpose is to provide a somewhat controlled social environment for young men and women to interact and hopefully meet their future spouse. Dating couples can attend together, and dates are permitted after the formal activities, with the young men often driving their date home late at night before finally heading home themselves.

Depending on the tolerance of the community, the informal activities can be a bit more permissive than singing hymns and playing volleyball. Often the buggies will become a typical teenage party scene, with alcohol, smoking, a radio, illicit smartphones and DVD players, and some less-than-reserved interaction between boys and girls. The punishment for getting caught can be severe, but in many cases the adults tend to turn a blind eye to what’s happening, and let the young people do as they please.

A lot more could be said about the dynamics of this cultural practice, but specifics vary so much between communities that I don’t think there’s much value in doing so. The point I think is relevant to this discussion is the question of sex.

There’s no reason to go off into the weeds on how much, if any, sex occurs. Premarital sex is absolutely forbidden. Does it happen anyway? Humans being human, certainly. How much? Probably very little in most cases. Getting pregnant, or getting someone pregnant, is the one transgression with inevitable life-changing consequences. The “shotgun wedding” is alive and well among the Amish, and getting a girl pregnant means marrying her or being expelled from the Amish community permanently, no exceptions. Besides that, getting pregnant outside of marriage is the most disgraceful and shameful thing a girl could do. It happens very very rarely, put it that way.

So casual sex within the community is basically off the table. What about casual sex with “English” people? This is where the Amish cultural practices play a big role. The Amish dress very distinctly. They can’t go anywhere in their traditional clothes without being instantly recognized. They also don’t drive cars, so going somewhere means getting a ride with someone. And their parents will usually keep an eye on their plans and whereabouts. So let’s imagine how an Amish teenager might go about finding a casual sexual encounter.

First off, getting ahold of a cell phone would be essential. They need some way to communicate with the outside world, and coordinate with their “partner in crime.” A lot of Amish teenagers do this, often with the help of slightly older people who have left the Amish, but keep ties with the community, maybe an older sibling or cousin. These are often the same people who buy alcohol for Amish teens.

Then, they need to get some non-Amish clothes. Remember, every trip away from home will take a willing driver, a plausible excuse in a community where everyone knows everyone, and the guarantee of being immediately recognized if seen in public. And the Amish parents know who the “bad kids” are, the ones who left but are willing to help their younger relatives and friends break the rules. Getting caught hanging around with them will probably mean a lot less trust and a lot less freedom in the future.

For the girls, a change of “English” clothes and a new hairstyle will let them blend in quite well. Of course, they can’t be caught leaving or coming home in those clothes, or have the clothes found at home. Lots of logistical hurdles everywhere. For the boys, they have a very distinctive haircut. A new change of clothes won’t fix that. There’s really no way for them to hide the fact that they’re Amish, even if the accent and the lack of a driver’s license don’t give them away.

Assuming they manage all that, and sneak away from home undetected, how will they find someone to hook up with? They’re very insulated from popular culture, and probably not at all comfortable in typical social situations. For the girls, there’s the added risk that an accidental pregnancy, or even just getting caught, would ruin their reputation and any chance of marriage and a family in the Amish community. So they’re unlikely to even try, unless they’re already fully intending to leave the Amish for good. That only really happens if they have a guy ready to marry them outside the Amish community, for reasons I’ll get into more later. Briefly, the Amish culture and schooling leaves women poorly prepared to support themselves outside that culture.

For the boys, there’s the typical difficulty men face in finding casual sexual partners. Multiply that by the difficulty of not having a car or driver’s license, not being experienced in mainstream social norms, plus that obvious and undisguisable Amish haircut. And all that ignores the lifelong teaching that casual sex is sinful and wrong, and those who engage in it are going against the teachings of God and the church. The entire culture is specifically designed to discourage casual sex as strongly as possible, and it does an excellent job at that.

Why does that matter? Well, humans are all very much the same, with the same desires and instincts. And sex is one of the strongest of those desires. The Amish are certainly no different.

So the Amish religious practice and culture offers a very simple choice. You can choose sex outside of marriage, which will be difficult or impossible, occasional at best, and if you get caught will mean expulsion from the community your life is rooted in, and even if you don’t get caught will mean you’re committing a mortal sin that will keep you out of heaven if you don’t repent and change. Or, you can get married and have all the sex you want, and be respected and rewarded for it.

That’s really all it takes to sell the idea of marriage to most men.

When a couple does decide to get engaged, of course with permission from the girl’s father, the wedding happens within a reasonably short time, in acknowledgement of the temptation young people face in that situation.

So let’s take a little closer look at the gender differences between the choice to stay single or to marry. It’s helpful to lay out the different life paths available, and how they play out over time.

There are very few Amish who remain single throughout their life, and almost all of them are women. So let’s look at it through a man’s perspective first. What kind of life can a single Amish man expect?

First off, a lifetime of celibacy. There’s hardly any need to go further, that’s a deal breaker for most men. If they choose to stay single for some reason, most will leave the Amish completely rather than accept those terms.

So maybe it’s more useful to look at incentives for early marriage, which is the norm. I’m a strong believer that incentives create outcomes, so I’ll be taking a hard look at incentives throughout this article.

Young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, in most cases. Remember, no going off to college either. So from age 14 on, they’re stuck living with Mom and Dad, working full time, and not even keeping their own income. That gets old fast. Getting married, moving out, and starting a family looks better every day. Besides that, Amish women do a lot to improve the lives of their men. The Amish are well known for their delicious food. Well, that’s because the Amish women cook and bake. As a single guy, moving out of Mom’s house means not getting delicious home-cooked food every day. And they don’t have an iPhone to order DoorDash either, so it’s pizza delivery, hiring a driver to go to a restaurant, or whatever you can cook yourself. And Amish boys don’t grow up learning how to cook, that’s women’s work. Same with making clothes. Amish mothers and wives sew clothes for their families, since they’re forbidden to wear commercially available clothes in general. So a single guy is dependent on his mom for new clothes as well. Same with washing clothes. Most Amish have fairly modern clothes washing machines, although they don’t use dryers. But washing and folding clothes isn’t a job most boys grow up doing, so they’re pretty lost if they have to try it.

All in all, there aren’t a lot of upsides to staying single longer than absolutely necessary. There are plenty of benefits to marriage, though. For one, marriage is seen as a necessary step to full maturity as a man. It’s even expressed as a visible marker. Single young men typically stay clean-shaven. Once they get married, shaving is completely forbidden, and they are required to grow out a full beard. So the difference between married and single men is obvious at first glance, and is acknowledged as a marker of full maturity.

Then of course there’s the sexual access. No explanation needed.

Then there are all the benefits of an improved lifestyle a stay-at-home wife provides. That includes cooking, cleaning, washing clothes, caring for a garden, preserving food, helping with farm work or chores, and helping with his business. Many Amish wives are very involved in their husband’s career or business, whether that’s managing the bookkeeping, working in the greenhouses, or helping with daily chores on the farm. While most Amish communities use quite modern household appliances, powered with batteries, kerosene, or air pressure, the work of maintaining a household is still much more involved than for the typical American household. Especially when it comes to sewing, which very few American women do at all, but which took a large percentage of women’s time only a few generations ago. Among the Amish it still does.

I’m only focusing on the incentives for marriage right now, because that’s the first step. Of course, most married couples today don’t have 5-8 children, so there’s more to the story. But universal marriage, particularly early marriage, is an essential part of the puzzle.

Shifting focus to the women, here the picture is even more clear. Almost all lifelong single Amish people are women, and that’s not by choice. The Amish still maintain the “old maid” category that used to be part of mainstream culture. Single Amish women are almost invariably single because no man offered to marry them. Here’s why.

If single life is unappealing for Amish men, it’s positively bleak for women. Marriage and family life is the aspirational goal they’re taught from little up. And for good reason.

With their eighth-grade education, and without a driver’s license and car, their income earning potential is very limited. Most young women who aren’t busy on the farm or with the family business work as schoolteachers, housecleaners, babysitters, or cooks and servers at Amish restaurants or farmers’ markets. None of these jobs pay well. Enough to buy a few personal items, but not enough to buy a house or support even one person. And while it might be acceptable for a single Amish man to eventually buy a house and move out, at some point in his late 20s or early 30s, it’s really not acceptable at any age for an Amish old maid. Those old maids typically end up living with their parents, caring for them in old age, working the same type of jobs young girls do, and probably hoping that at some point an older widower with a family will show up and propose.

Marriage has massive lifestyle benefits for women, even more so than for men. Amish men typically do well financially, and often work in construction as well, or have friends and relatives who do. Amish houses are very nice and well constructed to say the least, and the wife gets the house she wants, the way she wants it. Being stingy with a house for your wife isn’t part of an Amish man’s mentality. Amish women are well rewarded for all their hard work keeping house, with a house they’ll be happy keeping. And of course a nice farm or at least some acreage, with space for a big garden, a barn for any animals, and space for greenhouses or whatever she needs for any home business ambitions she might have.

Along with that, Amish women have a lot of flexibility when it comes to spending money. Many Amish women handle most of the family finances. And the money her husband earns is family money, not his money. While the husband has final say in financial decisions, most Amish men don’t say no to their wives’ purchase requests often. Married Amish women have access to all the creature comforts the church allows to make their lives as pleasant as possible.

When it comes to status, the benefits are just as clear. Amish life revolves around family, and nothing is higher status than a thriving family of your own. The Amish version of posting exotic vacation pictures on Instagram is showing up to a social function with your new baby. It’s the automatic center of attention for weeks, until a newer baby show up in the community. And the default topic of conversation is always a woman’s children and their growth and development. Young girls grow up dreaming of the day they can join those conversations, and old maids are always outsiders in a certain sense, pitied by everyone else for their misfortune.

Being an old maid means being poor, low status, pitied by other women, and destined to live with your parents until they pass, with your only bitter-sweet consolation being the role of aunt to your dozens of nieces and nephews and maid to your sisters and sisters-in-law through their many pregnancies. Getting married means access to a man’s income, a nice new house just the way you want it, a farm, and an automatic status boost as a mother and eventually grandmother who always has lots to contribute to the conversation at social events.

As you can imagine, the incentives strongly favor marriage from both directions. Men benefit through improved lifestyle, status, and access to sex. Women benefit through improved lifestyle, economic opportunity, and status in the social hierarchy.

Given that the selection pool for potential partners is limited, mostly to the local Amish community, or occasionally another Amish community if there’s some interaction through family ties or social events, assortative mating is the norm. Young people can be choosy, sure. But they already know most of the people in their potential mating pool, and have probably known those people for most of their lives. They have a pretty good idea how desirable they are to potential partners, and the girls especially have to think long and hard about turning down a suitor. Men are always the initiators of a relationship, and the risk of turning down an eligible man and then never getting another offer, ending up as a dreaded old maid, is always lurking in the back of their minds.

Besides that, both men and women have multiple ways to improve their spouse’s life. Women are much more than just sexual objects. Their domestic role actually raises their husband’s standard of living significantly, in a way he can’t access as a single man. And men are all valuable to women, both for resources and for status as a wife and mother. Even a very average husband or wife is a massive lifestyle boost over remaining single.

By now it should be pretty clear why marriage is almost universal among the Amish, and marriage at what most would consider a young age (19-23) is more common than not. And I haven’t even mentioned any religious teaching, because frankly I don’t think that’s a major force on an individual level. The religious beliefs shape the social and material landscape, and that landscape provides the practical incentives that cause people to make the choices they do. The fact that an Amish interpretation of the Bible encourages marriage and children is one layer removed from the reasons individual 20-year-old Amish men and women choose to get married.

I pointed out earlier that getting married and having a high birthrate, or even getting married young and having a high birthrate, are not exactly the same thing. Plenty of married couples today have one, two, or even no children, even if they got married young enough to have ten if they chose to do so. So why are the Amish different?

There’s the too-obvious answer: they don’t allow the use of contraceptives. Occam’s razor and all, but it deserves a bit more explanation. After all, the Catholic Church doesn’t allow the use of contraceptives either, and look how well that’s working out for them. Of course the enforcement mechanism doesn’t have the teeth among Catholics that it has among the Amish, but that’s not the whole story. If they were motivated enough, there’d be a way to space the children out more, maybe end up without quite so many, without anyone knowing. That doesn’t happen, because the contraceptive ban is a dead letter when couples want to have as many children as possible, which the Amish typically do.

Again, I’ll go back to incentives. What are the incentives to have children specifically, as many as possible, and not just get married and “plan for a family one day”?

For one, status. For both men and women, a large family is a marker of high status. Parents are respected and honored for doing a good job of raising well-adjusted children.

Children are also less of a financial burden for the Amish. Their children are raised well, but not in a financially intensive way that’s become expected today. They don’t have to buy a new car or SUV to fit the family, they don’t buy every child a boatload of expensive electronic gadgets every birthday and Christmas, they don’t have to pay for frequent vacations or college tuition, and they don’t have to eat out or pay for takeout or pay for childcare or a house cleaner since the wife is handling all those domestic roles herself. And the Amish don’t practice helicopter parenting, so children are much more free to play and amuse themselves without constant supervision from their parents. They don’t have to be driven to 17 different weekly structured activities. They have a farm to play on and shelves full of books to read and some toys to play with if the weather is bad, and that’s about it. And of course as the family grows, the older siblings do a large percentage of the housework and help with the younger children.

The older teenagers that are working outside the home typically give their earnings to their parents, but this basically offsets the cost of raising them, so it isn’t really an incentive to have larger families, just the removal of a disincentive.

The strongest real incentive, other than increased status and cultural inertia, that I observe for large families is that the children are the parents’ retirement plan. The Amish don’t work at jobs that offer pensions or benefits. They are exempt from paying into, but also ineligible to receive, Social Security benefits. The Social Security exemption was granted on the basis that the Amish don’t need government payments to support them in old age, because the family and community will do that. And they do.

How does this work out in practice? First, the Amish don’t practice “retirement” the way most people think of it. They teach that work is honorable and every able-bodied man should work to support his family and to help those in need. So as long as a man is physically able to work, he’ll be employed and supporting himself and his wife. And Amish women move directly from the role of mother to the role of grandmother. It’s not at all uncommon, in fact, for a woman’s first grandchild to be born before her last child is born. So plenty of Amish children are an aunt or uncle at birth, and have a niece or nephew older than they are. Grandmothers are extremely involved in helping their daughters and daughters-in-law with childcare, so they don’t often have a big stretch of free time after their children grow up and move out. And besides that, there are still the significant household responsibilities to attend to.

As a couple gets older and perhaps less able to handle everything on their own, they often move to the home of one of their grown children. Typically not into the home directly, but into what’s called a “dody haus” (grandpa house) which might be a small detached house on the same property, or a separate wing of the larger house, like an in-law suite. Here they’re able to live independently, help care for the grandchildren next door, and still be nearby so their children and grandchildren can give any care they may need in old age. If the couple has an unmarried “old maid” daughter, she’ll typically still be living with them and will be the primary caregiver.

If someone doesn’t have children to care for them, the Amish community will find a way to care for them. Some more distant relative or maybe surviving siblings will step in to help. But the expectation and the rule is that your children and grandchildren will care for you after you’re no longer able to care for yourself. Finding yourself growing old without family is an unfortunate and unpleasant situation, regardless how much the community may try to fill that role. Just as throughout earlier stages of life, social functions and social status revolve around children and family, and anyone without them will be incomplete as a person, something of an inevitable outsider to the joys of life. The best insurance against a lonely and uncomfortable old age is a large family, among which there are certain to be sufficient resources to care for you. Many elderly Amish people die with well over a hundred grandchildren and great-grandchildren, and spend their later years constantly surrounded by children and young people who deeply appreciate and respect them. Being taught and shown that respect toward their own grandparents from a young age is a strong incentive to aspire to the same status one day.

I’m not sure exactly where this fits, but I should point out somewhere that the Amish have an absolutely zero tolerance policy toward divorce. There are no legitimate grounds for divorce whatsoever, and anyone who initiates a divorce will be excommunicated from the church and shunned. If an Amish person’s spouse initiates divorce proceedings, they won’t cooperate with those proceedings in any way. If the divorce happens through the legal system without their consent anyway, they can remain a church member in good standing only by staying celibate as long as their spouse remains alive. The only acceptable second marriage is in the case of the death of a spouse. In those cases, a quick remarriage is the rule among widows and widowers with young children, since raising a family is seen as a job for a married couple, not a single person.

It’s hard to say exactly how this stance against divorce influences marriage and fertility. But it certainly limits exposure to the idea of divorce as a “solution” to marriage difficulties, and incentivizes couples to work things out for their own life satisfaction. And it dramatically reduces the financial risks men face in the modern marriage system, where the potential to lose not only their family, but also a significant portion of their material wealth, raises strong disincentives to marriage. The physical realities of married life versus single life in a more low-tech environment probably discourage divorce, but the added threat of complete social and familial ostracization eliminate it almost entirely.

Conclusion

This article is my attempt to provide some insight into the Amish culture that might help us understand the factors causing their unusually high fertility rate. I’ve titled it as part one, because I plan to follow up with some of my personal opinions on how these insights relate to the broader society. I think a lot of the proposed causes of and solutions to the global demographic collapse are completely incorrect, and my opinion is based heavily on my observation of Amish culture. That will be the focus of part two of this article.

Feel free to comment and post questions. My biggest challenge in writing this article is the fact that I take my familiarity with Amish culture for granted to some degree, so I struggled to choose which points are relevant to understanding the culture for an outsider. I’m sure I skipped over plenty of important details that may leave readers feeling confused, so I’ll do my best to answer any questions you post, and update the article with pertinent information I missed.

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Es ist völlig unbestritten, dass der Angriff der russischen Armee auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 strikt zu verurteilen ist. Ebenso unbestritten ist Russland unter Wladimir Putin keine brillante Demokratie. Aus diesen Tatsachen lässt sich jedoch nicht das finstere Bild des russischen Präsidenten – und erst recht nicht des Landes – begründen, das uns durchweg vorgesetzt wird und den Kern des aktuellen europäischen Bedrohungs-Szenarios darstellt. Da müssen wir schon etwas genauer hinschauen.

Der vorliegende Artikel versucht derweil nicht, den Einsatz von Gewalt oder die Verletzung von Menschenrechten zu rechtfertigen oder zu entschuldigen – ganz im Gegenteil. Dass jedoch der Verdacht des «Putinverstehers» sofort latent im Raume steht, verdeutlicht, was beim Thema «Russland» passiert: Meinungsmache und Manipulation.

Angesichts der mentalen Mobilmachung seitens Politik und Medien sowie des Bestrebens, einen bevorstehenden Krieg mit Russland geradezu herbeizureden, ist es notwendig, dieser fatalen Entwicklung entgegenzutreten. Wenn wir uns nur ein wenig von der herrschenden Schwarz-Weiß-Malerei freimachen, tauchen automatisch Fragen auf, die Risse im offiziellen Narrativ enthüllen. Grund genug, nachzuhaken.

Wer sich schon länger auch abseits der Staats- und sogenannten Leitmedien informiert, der wird in diesem Artikel vermutlich nicht viel Neues erfahren. Andere könnten hier ein paar unbekannte oder vergessene Aspekte entdecken. Möglicherweise klärt sich in diesem Kontext die Wahrnehmung der aktuellen (unserer eigenen!) Situation ein wenig.

Manipulation erkennen

Corona-«Pandemie», menschengemachter Klimawandel oder auch Ukraine-Krieg: Jede Menge Krisen, und für alle gibt es ein offizielles Narrativ, dessen Hinterfragung unerwünscht ist. Nun ist aber ein Narrativ einfach eine Erzählung, eine Geschichte (Latein: «narratio») und kein Tatsachenbericht. Und so wie ein Märchen soll auch das Narrativ eine Botschaft vermitteln.

Über die Methoden der Manipulation ist viel geschrieben worden, sowohl in Bezug auf das Individuum als auch auf die Massen. Sehr wertvolle Tipps dazu, wie man Manipulationen durchschauen kann, gibt ein Büchlein [1] von Albrecht Müller, dem Herausgeber der NachDenkSeiten.

Die Sprache selber eignet sich perfekt für die Manipulation. Beispielsweise kann die Wortwahl Bewertungen mitschwingen lassen, regelmäßiges Wiederholen (gerne auch von verschiedenen Seiten) lässt Dinge irgendwann «wahr» erscheinen, Übertreibungen fallen auf und hinterlassen wenigstens eine Spur im Gedächtnis, genauso wie Andeutungen. Belege spielen dabei keine Rolle.

Es gibt auffällig viele Sprachregelungen, die offenbar irgendwo getroffen und irgendwie koordiniert werden. Oder alle Redenschreiber und alle Medien kopieren sich neuerdings permanent gegenseitig. Welchen Zweck hat es wohl, wenn der Krieg in der Ukraine durchgängig und quasi wörtlich als «russischer Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine» bezeichnet wird? Obwohl das in der Sache richtig ist, deutet die Art der Verwendung auf gezielte Beeinflussung hin und soll vor allem das Feindbild zementieren.

Sprachregelungen dienen oft der Absicherung einer einseitigen Darstellung. Das Gleiche gilt für das Verkürzen von Informationen bis hin zum hartnäckigen Verschweigen ganzer Themenbereiche. Auch hierfür gibt es rund um den Ukraine-Konflikt viele gute Beispiele.

Das gewünschte Ergebnis solcher Methoden ist eine Schwarz-Weiß-Malerei, bei der einer eindeutig als «der Böse» markiert ist und die anderen automatisch «die Guten» sind. Das ist praktisch und demonstriert gleichzeitig ein weiteres Manipulationswerkzeug: die Verwendung von Doppelstandards. Wenn man es schafft, bei wichtigen Themen regelmäßig mit zweierlei Maß zu messen, ohne dass das Publikum protestiert, dann hat man freie Bahn.

Experten zu bemühen, um bestimmte Sachverhalte zu erläutern, ist sicher sinnvoll, kann aber ebenso missbraucht werden, schon allein durch die Auswahl der jeweiligen Spezialisten. Seit «Corona» werden viele erfahrene und ehemals hoch angesehene Fachleute wegen der «falschen Meinung» diffamiert und gecancelt. [2] Das ist nicht nur ein brutaler Umgang mit Menschen, sondern auch eine extreme Form, die öffentliche Meinung zu steuern.

Wann immer wir also erkennen (weil wir aufmerksam waren), dass wir bei einem bestimmten Thema manipuliert werden, dann sind zwei logische und notwendige Fragen: Warum? Und was ist denn richtig? In unserem Russland-Kontext haben die Antworten darauf viel mit Geopolitik und Geschichte zu tun.

Ist Russland aggressiv und expansiv?

Angeblich plant Russland, europäische NATO-Staaten anzugreifen, nach dem Motto: «Zuerst die Ukraine, dann den Rest». In Deutschland weiß man dafür sogar das Datum: «Wir müssen bis 2029 kriegstüchtig sein», versichert Verteidigungsminister Pistorius.

Historisch gesehen ist es allerdings eher umgekehrt: Russland, bzw. die Sowjetunion, ist bereits dreimal von Westeuropa aus militärisch angegriffen worden. Die Feldzüge Napoleons, des deutschen Kaiserreichs und Nazi-Deutschlands haben Millionen Menschen das Leben gekostet. Bei dem ausdrücklichen Vernichtungskrieg ab 1941 kam es außerdem zu Brutalitäten wie der zweieinhalbjährigen Belagerung Leningrads (heute St. Petersburg) durch Hitlers Wehrmacht. Deren Ziel, die Bevölkerung auszuhungern, wurde erreicht: über eine Million tote Zivilisten.

Trotz dieser Erfahrungen stimmte Michail Gorbatschow 1990 der deutschen Wiedervereinigung zu und die Sowjetunion zog ihre Truppen aus Osteuropa zurück (vgl. Abb. 1). Der Warschauer Pakt wurde aufgelöst, der Kalte Krieg formell beendet. Die Sowjets erhielten damals von führenden westlichen Politikern die Zusicherung, dass sich die NATO «keinen Zentimeter ostwärts» ausdehnen würde, das ist dokumentiert. [3]

Expandiert ist die NATO trotzdem, und zwar bis an Russlands Grenzen (vgl. Abb. 2). Laut dem Politikberater Jeffrey Sachs handelt es sich dabei um ein langfristiges US-Projekt, das von Anfang an die Ukraine und Georgien mit einschloss. Offiziell wurde der Beitritt beiden Staaten 2008 angeboten. In jedem Fall könnte die massive Ost-Erweiterung seit 1999 aus russischer Sicht nicht nur als Vertrauensbruch, sondern durchaus auch als aggressiv betrachtet werden.

Russland hat den europäischen Staaten mehrfach die Hand ausgestreckt [4] für ein friedliches Zusammenleben und den «Aufbau des europäischen Hauses». Präsident Putin sei «in seiner ersten Amtszeit eine Chance für Europa» gewesen, urteilt die Journalistin und langjährige Russland-Korrespondentin der ARD, Gabriele Krone-Schmalz. Er habe damals viele positive Signale Richtung Westen gesendet.

Die Europäer jedoch waren scheinbar an einer Partnerschaft mit dem kontinentalen Nachbarn weniger interessiert als an der mit dem transatlantischen Hegemon. Sie verkennen bis heute, dass eine gedeihliche Zusammenarbeit in Eurasien eine Gefahr für die USA und deren bekundetes Bestreben ist, die «einzige Weltmacht» zu sein – «Full Spectrum Dominance» [5] nannte das Pentagon das. Statt einem neuen Kalten Krieg entgegenzuarbeiten, ließen sich europäische Staaten selber in völkerrechtswidrige «US-dominierte Angriffskriege» [6] verwickeln, wie in Serbien, Afghanistan, dem Irak, Libyen oder Syrien. Diese werden aber selten so benannt.

Speziell den Deutschen stünde außer einer Portion Realismus auch etwas mehr Dankbarkeit gut zu Gesicht. Das Geschichtsbewusstsein der Mehrheit scheint doch recht selektiv und das Selbstbewusstsein einiger etwas desorientiert zu sein. Bekanntermaßen waren es die Soldaten der sowjetischen Roten Armee, die unter hohen Opfern 1945 Deutschland «vom Faschismus befreit» haben. Bei den Gedenkfeiern zu 80 Jahren Kriegsende will jedoch das Auswärtige Amt – noch unter der Diplomatie-Expertin Baerbock, die sich schon länger offiziell im Krieg mit Russland wähnt, – nun keine Russen sehen: Sie sollen notfalls rausgeschmissen werden.

«Die Grundsatzfrage lautet: Geht es Russland um einen angemessenen Platz in einer globalen Sicherheitsarchitektur, oder ist Moskau schon seit langem auf einem imperialistischen Trip, der befürchten lassen muss, dass die Russen in fünf Jahren in Berlin stehen?»

So bringt Gabriele Krone-Schmalz [7] die eigentliche Frage auf den Punkt, die zur Einschätzung der Situation letztlich auch jeder für sich beantworten muss.

Was ist los in der Ukraine?

In der internationalen Politik geht es nie um Demokratie oder Menschenrechte, sondern immer um Interessen von Staaten. Diese These stammt von Egon Bahr, einem der Architekten der deutschen Ostpolitik des «Wandels durch Annäherung» aus den 1960er und 70er Jahren. Sie trifft auch auf den Ukraine-Konflikt zu, den handfeste geostrategische und wirtschaftliche Interessen beherrschen, obwohl dort angeblich «unsere Demokratie» verteidigt wird.

Es ist ein wesentliches Element des Ukraine-Narrativs und Teil der Manipulation, die Vorgeschichte des Krieges wegzulassen – mindestens die vor der russischen «Annexion» der Halbinsel Krim im März 2014, aber oft sogar komplett diejenige vor der Invasion Ende Februar 2022. Das Thema ist komplex, aber einige Aspekte, die für eine Beurteilung nicht unwichtig sind, will ich wenigstens kurz skizzieren. [8]

Das Gebiet der heutigen Ukraine und Russlands – die übrigens in der «Kiewer Rus» gemeinsame Wurzeln haben – hat der britische Geostratege Halford Mackinder bereits 1904 als eurasisches «Heartland» bezeichnet, dessen Kontrolle er eine große Bedeutung für die imperiale Strategie Großbritanniens zumaß. Für den ehemaligen Sicherheits- und außenpolitischen Berater mehrerer US-amerikanischer Präsidenten und Mitgründer der Trilateralen Kommission, Zbigniew Brzezinski, war die Ukraine nach der Auflösung der Sowjetunion ein wichtiger Spielstein auf dem «eurasischen Schachbrett», wegen seiner Nähe zu Russland, seiner Bodenschätze und seines Zugangs zum Schwarzen Meer.

Die Ukraine ist seit langem ein gespaltenes Land. Historisch zerrissen als Spielball externer Interessen und geprägt von ethnischen, kulturellen, religiösen und geografischen Unterschieden existiert bis heute, grob gesagt, eine Ost-West-Spaltung, welche die Suche nach einer nationalen Identität stark erschwert.

Insbesondere im Zuge der beiden Weltkriege sowie der Russischen Revolution entstanden tiefe Risse in der Bevölkerung. Ukrainer kämpften gegen Ukrainer, zum Beispiel die einen auf der Seite von Hitlers faschistischer Nazi-Armee und die anderen auf der von Stalins kommunistischer Roter Armee. Die Verbrechen auf beiden Seiten sind nicht vergessen. Dass nach der Unabhängigkeit 1991 versucht wurde, Figuren wie den radikalen Nationalisten Symon Petljura oder den Faschisten und Nazi-Kollaborateur Stepan Bandera als «Nationalhelden» zu installieren, verbessert die Sache nicht.

Während die USA und EU-Staaten zunehmend «ausländische Einmischung» (speziell russische) in «ihre Demokratien» wittern, betreiben sie genau dies seit Jahrzehnten in vielen Ländern der Welt. Die seit den 2000er Jahren bekannten «Farbrevolutionen» in Osteuropa werden oft als Methode des Regierungsumsturzes durch von außen gesteuerte «demokratische» Volksaufstände beschrieben. Diese Strategie geht auf Analysen zum «Schwarmverhalten» [9] seit den 1960er Jahren zurück (Studentenproteste), wo es um die potenzielle Wirksamkeit einer «rebellischen Hysterie» von Jugendlichen bei postmodernen Staatsstreichen geht. Heute nennt sich dieses gezielte Kanalisieren der Massen zur Beseitigung unkooperativer Regierungen «Soft-Power».

In der Ukraine gab es mit der «Orangen Revolution» 2004 und dem «Euromaidan» 2014 gleich zwei solcher «Aufstände». Der erste erzwang wegen angeblicher Unregelmäßigkeiten eine Wiederholung der Wahlen, was mit Wiktor Juschtschenko als neuem Präsidenten endete. Dieser war ehemaliger Direktor der Nationalbank und Befürworter einer Annäherung an EU und NATO. Seine Frau, die First Lady, ist US-amerikanische «Philanthropin» und war Beamtin im Weißen Haus in der Reagan- und der Bush-Administration.

Im Gegensatz zu diesem ersten Event endete der sogenannte Euromaidan unfriedlich und blutig. Die mehrwöchigen Proteste gegen Präsident Wiktor Janukowitsch, in Teilen wegen des nicht unterzeichneten Assoziierungsabkommens mit der EU, wurden zunehmend gewalttätiger und von Nationalisten und Faschisten des «Rechten Sektors» dominiert. Sie mündeten Ende Februar 2014 auf dem Kiewer Unabhängigkeitsplatz (Maidan) in einem Massaker durch Scharfschützen. Dass deren Herkunft und die genauen Umstände nicht geklärt wurden, störte die Medien nur wenig. [10]

Janukowitsch musste fliehen, er trat nicht zurück. Vielmehr handelte es sich um einen gewaltsamen, allem Anschein nach vom Westen inszenierten Putsch. Laut Jeffrey Sachs war das kein Geheimnis, außer vielleicht für die Bürger. Die USA unterstützten die Post-Maidan-Regierung nicht nur, sie beeinflussten auch ihre Bildung. Das geht unter anderem aus dem berühmten «Fuck the EU»-Telefonat der US-Chefdiplomatin für die Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, mit Botschafter Geoffrey Pyatt hervor.

Dieser Bruch der demokratischen Verfassung war letztlich der Auslöser für die anschließenden Krisen auf der Krim und im Donbass (Ostukraine). Angesichts der ukrainischen Geschichte mussten die nationalistischen Tendenzen und die Beteiligung der rechten Gruppen an dem Umsturz bei der russigsprachigen Bevölkerung im Osten ungute Gefühle auslösen. Es gab Kritik an der Übergangsregierung, Befürworter einer Abspaltung und auch für einen Anschluss an Russland.

Ebenso konnte Wladimir Putin in dieser Situation durchaus Bedenken wegen des Status der russischen Militärbasis für seine Schwarzmeerflotte in Sewastopol auf der Krim haben, für die es einen langfristigen Pachtvertrag mit der Ukraine gab. Was im März 2014 auf der Krim stattfand, sei keine Annexion, sondern eine Abspaltung (Sezession) nach einem Referendum gewesen, also keine gewaltsame Aneignung, urteilte der Rechtswissenschaftler Reinhard Merkel in der FAZ sehr detailliert begründet. Übrigens hatte die Krim bereits zu Zeiten der Sowjetunion den Status einer autonomen Republik innerhalb der Ukrainischen SSR.

Anfang April 2014 wurden in der Ostukraine die «Volksrepubliken» Donezk und Lugansk ausgerufen. Die Kiewer Übergangsregierung ging unter der Bezeichnung «Anti-Terror-Operation» (ATO) militärisch gegen diesen, auch von Russland instrumentalisierten Widerstand vor. Zufällig war kurz zuvor CIA-Chef John Brennan in Kiew. Die Maßnahmen gingen unter dem seit Mai neuen ukrainischen Präsidenten, dem Milliardär Petro Poroschenko, weiter. Auch Wolodymyr Selenskyj beendete den Bürgerkrieg nicht, als er 2019 vom Präsidenten-Schauspieler, der Oligarchen entmachtet, zum Präsidenten wurde. Er fuhr fort, die eigene Bevölkerung zu bombardieren.

Mit dem Einmarsch russischer Truppen in die Ostukraine am 24. Februar 2022 begann die zweite Phase des Krieges. Die Wochen und Monate davor waren intensiv. Im November hatte die Ukraine mit den USA ein Abkommen über eine «strategische Partnerschaft» unterzeichnet. Darin sagten die Amerikaner ihre Unterstützung der EU- und NATO-Perspektive der Ukraine sowie quasi für die Rückeroberung der Krim zu. Dagegen ließ Putin der NATO und den USA im Dezember 2021 einen Vertragsentwurf über beiderseitige verbindliche Sicherheitsgarantien zukommen, den die NATO im Januar ablehnte. Im Februar eskalierte laut OSZE die Gewalt im Donbass.

Bereits wenige Wochen nach der Invasion, Ende März 2022, kam es in Istanbul zu Friedensverhandlungen, die fast zu einer Lösung geführt hätten. Dass der Krieg nicht damals bereits beendet wurde, lag daran, dass der Westen dies nicht wollte. Man war der Meinung, Russland durch die Ukraine in diesem Stellvertreterkrieg auf Dauer militärisch schwächen zu können. Angesichts von Hunderttausenden Toten, Verletzten und Traumatisierten, die als Folge seitdem zu beklagen sind, sowie dem Ausmaß der Zerstörung, fehlen einem die Worte.

Hasst der Westen die Russen?

Diese Frage drängt sich auf, wenn man das oft unerträglich feindselige Gebaren beobachtet, das beileibe nicht neu ist und vor Doppelmoral trieft. Russland und speziell die Person Wladimir Putins werden regelrecht dämonisiert, was gleichzeitig scheinbar jede Form von Diplomatie ausschließt.

Russlands militärische Stärke, seine geografische Lage, sein Rohstoffreichtum oder seine unabhängige diplomatische Tradition sind sicher Störfaktoren für das US-amerikanische Bestreben, der Boss in einer unipolaren Welt zu sein. Ein womöglich funktionierender eurasischer Kontinent, insbesondere gute Beziehungen zwischen Russland und Deutschland, war indes schon vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg eine Sorge des britischen Imperiums.

Ein «Vergehen» von Präsident Putin könnte gewesen sein, dass er die neoliberale Schocktherapie à la IWF und den Ausverkauf des Landes (auch an US-Konzerne) beendete, der unter seinem Vorgänger herrschte. Dabei zeigte er sich als Führungspersönlichkeit und als nicht so formbar wie Jelzin. Diese Aspekte allein sind aber heute vermutlich keine ausreichende Erklärung für ein derart gepflegtes Feindbild.

Der Historiker und Philosoph Hauke Ritz erweitert den Fokus der Fragestellung zu: «Warum hasst der Westen die Russen so sehr?», was er zum Beispiel mit dem Medienforscher Michael Meyen und mit der Politikwissenschaftlerin Ulrike Guérot bespricht. Ritz stellt die interessante These [11] auf, dass Russland eine Provokation für den Westen sei, welcher vor allem dessen kulturelles und intellektuelles Potenzial fürchte.

Die Russen sind Europäer aber anders, sagt Ritz. Diese «Fremdheit in der Ähnlichkeit» erzeuge vielleicht tiefe Ablehnungsgefühle. Obwohl Russlands Identität in der europäischen Kultur verwurzelt ist, verbinde es sich immer mit der Opposition in Europa. Als Beispiele nennt er die Kritik an der katholischen Kirche oder die Verbindung mit der Arbeiterbewegung. Christen, aber orthodox; Sozialismus statt Liberalismus. Das mache das Land zum Antagonisten des Westens und zu einer Bedrohung der Machtstrukturen in Europa.

Fazit

Selbstverständlich kann man Geschichte, Ereignisse und Entwicklungen immer auf verschiedene Arten lesen. Dieser Artikel, obwohl viel zu lang, konnte nur einige Aspekte der Ukraine-Tragödie anreißen, die in den offiziellen Darstellungen in der Regel nicht vorkommen. Mindestens dürfte damit jedoch klar geworden sein, dass die Russische Föderation bzw. Wladimir Putin nicht der alleinige Aggressor in diesem Konflikt ist. Das ist ein Stellvertreterkrieg zwischen USA/NATO (gut) und Russland (böse); die Ukraine (edel) wird dabei schlicht verheizt.

Das ist insofern von Bedeutung, als die gesamte europäische Kriegshysterie auf sorgsam kultivierten Freund-Feind-Bildern beruht. Nur so kann Konfrontation und Eskalation betrieben werden, denn damit werden die wahren Hintergründe und Motive verschleiert. Angst und Propaganda sind notwendig, damit die Menschen den Wahnsinn mitmachen. Sie werden belogen, um sie zuerst zu schröpfen und anschließend auf die Schlachtbank zu schicken. Das kann niemand wollen, außer den stets gleichen Profiteuren: die Rüstungs-Lobby und die großen Investoren, die schon immer an Zerstörung und Wiederaufbau verdient haben.

Apropos Investoren: Zu den Top-Verdienern und somit Hauptinteressenten an einer Fortführung des Krieges zählt BlackRock, einer der weltgrößten Vermögensverwalter. Der deutsche Bundeskanzler in spe, Friedrich Merz, der gerne «Taurus»-Marschflugkörper an die Ukraine liefern und die Krim-Brücke zerstören möchte, war von 2016 bis 2020 Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender von BlackRock in Deutschland. Aber das hat natürlich nichts zu sagen, der Mann macht nur seinen Job.

Es ist ein Spiel der Kräfte, es geht um Macht und strategische Kontrolle, um Geheimdienste und die Kontrolle der öffentlichen Meinung, um Bodenschätze, Rohstoffe, Pipelines und Märkte. Das klingt aber nicht sexy, «Demokratie und Menschenrechte» hört sich besser und einfacher an. Dabei wäre eine für alle Seiten förderliche Politik auch nicht so kompliziert; das Handwerkszeug dazu nennt sich Diplomatie. Noch einmal Gabriele Krone-Schmalz:

«Friedliche Politik ist nichts anderes als funktionierender Interessenausgleich. Da geht’s nicht um Moral.»

Die Situation in der Ukraine ist sicher komplex, vor allem wegen der inneren Zerrissenheit. Es dürfte nicht leicht sein, eine friedliche Lösung für das Zusammenleben zu finden, aber die Beteiligten müssen es vor allem wollen. Unter den gegebenen Umständen könnte eine sinnvolle Perspektive mit Neutralität und föderalen Strukturen zu tun haben.

Allen, die sich bis hierher durch die Lektüre gearbeitet (oder auch einfach nur runtergescrollt) haben, wünsche ich frohe Oster-Friedenstage!

[Titelbild: Pixabay; Abb. 1 und 2: nach Ganser/SIPER; Abb. 3: SIPER]

--- Quellen: ---

[1] Albrecht Müller, «Glaube wenig. Hinterfrage alles. Denke selbst.», Westend 2019

[2] Zwei nette Beispiele:

• ARD-faktenfinder (sic), «Viel Aufmerksamkeit für fragwürdige Experten», 03/2023
• Neue Zürcher Zeitung, «Aufstieg und Fall einer Russlandversteherin – die ehemalige ARD-Korrespondentin Gabriele Krone-Schmalz rechtfertigt seit Jahren Putins Politik», 12/2022

[3] George Washington University, «NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard – Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner», 12/2017

[4] Beispielsweise Wladimir Putin bei seiner Rede im Deutschen Bundestag, 25/09/2001

[5] William Engdahl, «Full Spectrum Dominance, Totalitarian Democracy In The New World Order», edition.engdahl 2009

[6] Daniele Ganser, «Illegale Kriege – Wie die NATO-Länder die UNO sabotieren. Eine Chronik von Kuba bis Syrien», Orell Füssli 2016

[7] Gabriele Krone-Schmalz, «Mit Friedensjournalismus gegen ‘Kriegstüchtigkeit’», Vortrag und Diskussion an der Universität Hamburg, veranstaltet von engagierten Studenten, 16/01/2025\ → Hier ist ein ähnlicher Vortrag von ihr (Video), den ich mit spanischer Übersetzung gefunden habe.

[8] Für mehr Hintergrund und Details empfehlen sich z.B. folgende Bücher:

• Mathias Bröckers, Paul Schreyer, «Wir sind immer die Guten», Westend 2019
• Gabriele Krone-Schmalz, «Russland verstehen? Der Kampf um die Ukraine und die Arroganz des Westens», Westend 2023
• Patrik Baab, «Auf beiden Seiten der Front – Meine Reisen in die Ukraine», Fiftyfifty 2023

[9] vgl. Jonathan Mowat, «Washington's New World Order "Democratization" Template», 02/2005 und RAND Corporation, «Swarming and the Future of Conflict», 2000

[10] Bemerkenswert einige Beiträge, von denen man später nichts mehr wissen wollte:

• ARD Monitor, «Todesschüsse in Kiew: Wer ist für das Blutbad vom Maidan verantwortlich», 10/04/2014, Transkript hier
• Telepolis, «Blutbad am Maidan: Wer waren die Todesschützen?», 12/04/2014
• Telepolis, «Scharfschützenmorde in Kiew», 14/12/2014
• Deutschlandfunk, «Gefahr einer Spirale nach unten», Interview mit Günter Verheugen, 18/03/2014
• NDR Panorama, «Putsch in Kiew: Welche Rolle spielen die Faschisten?», 06/03/2014

[11] Hauke Ritz, «Vom Niedergang des Westens zur Neuerfindung Europas», 2024

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Verstand ohne Gefühl ist unmenschlich; \ Gefühl ohne Verstand ist Dummheit. \ Egon Bahr

Seit Jahren werden wir darauf getrimmt, dass Fakten eigentlich gefühlt seien. Aber nicht alles ist relativ und nicht alles ist nach Belieben interpretierbar. Diese Schokoladenhasen beispielsweise, die an Ostern in unseren Gefilden typisch sind, «ostern» zwar nicht, sondern sie sitzen in der Regel, trotzdem verwandelt sie das nicht in «Sitzhasen».

Nichts soll mehr gelten, außer den immer invasiveren Gesetzen. Die eigenen Traditionen und Wurzeln sind potenziell «pfui», um andere Menschen nicht auszuschließen, aber wir mögen uns toleranterweise an die fremden Symbole und Rituale gewöhnen. Dabei ist es mir prinzipiell völlig egal, ob und wann jemand ein Fastenbrechen feiert, am Karsamstag oder jedem anderen Tag oder nie – aber bitte freiwillig.

Und vor allem: Lasst die Finger von den Kindern! In Bern setzten kürzlich Demonstranten ein Zeichen gegen die zunehmende Verbreitung woker Ideologie im Bildungssystem und forderten ein Ende der sexuellen Indoktrination von Schulkindern.

Wenn es nicht wegen des heiklen Themas Migration oder wegen des Regenbogens ist, dann wegen des Klimas. Im Rahmen der «Netto Null»-Agenda zum Kampf gegen das angeblich teuflische CO2 sollen die Menschen ihre Ernährungsgewohnheiten komplett ändern. Nach dem Willen von Produzenten synthetischer Lebensmittel, wie Bill Gates, sollen wir baldmöglichst praktisch auf Fleisch und alle Milchprodukte wie Milch und Käse verzichten. Ein lukratives Geschäftsmodell, das neben der EU aktuell auch von einem britischen Lobby-Konsortium unterstützt wird.

Sollten alle ideologischen Stricke zu reißen drohen, ist da immer noch «der Putin». Die Unions-Europäer offenbaren sich dabei ständig mehr als Vertreter der Rüstungsindustrie. Allen voran zündelt Deutschland an der Kriegslunte, angeführt von einem scheinbar todesmutigen Kanzlerkandidaten Friedrich Merz. Nach dessen erneuter Aussage, «Taurus»-Marschflugkörper an Kiew liefern zu wollen, hat Russland eindeutig klargestellt, dass man dies als direkte Kriegsbeteiligung werten würde – «mit allen sich daraus ergebenden Konsequenzen für Deutschland».

Wohltuend sind Nachrichten über Aktivitäten, die sich der allgemeinen Kriegstreiberei entgegenstellen oder diese öffentlich hinterfragen. Dazu zählt auch ein Kongress kritischer Psychologen und Psychotherapeuten, der letzte Woche in Berlin stattfand. Die vielen Vorträge im Kontext von «Krieg und Frieden» deckten ein breites Themenspektrum ab, darunter Friedensarbeit oder die Notwendigkeit einer «Pädagogik der Kriegsuntüchtigkeit».

Der heutige «stille Freitag», an dem Christen des Leidens und Sterbens von Jesus gedenken, ist vielleicht unabhängig von jeder religiösen oder spirituellen Prägung eine passende Einladung zur Reflexion. In der Ruhe liegt die Kraft. In diesem Sinne wünsche ich Ihnen frohe Ostertage!

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7

480 steps

@ 87e98bb6:8d6616f4

Use this guide if you want to keep your NixOS on the stable branch, but enable unstable application packages. It took me a while to figure out how to do this, so I wanted to share because it ended up being far easier than most of the vague explanations online made it seem.

I put a sample configuration.nix file at the very bottom to help it make more sense for new users. Remember to keep a backup of your config file, just in case!

If there are any errors please let me know. I am currently running NixOS 24.11.

Steps listed in this guide: 1. Add the unstable channel to NixOS as a secondary channel. 2. Edit the configuration.nix to enable unstable applications. 3. Add "unstable." in front of the application names in the config file (example: unstable.program). This enables the install of unstable versions during the build. 4. Rebuild.

Step 1:

• Open the console. (If you want to see which channels you currently have, type: sudo nix-channel --list)
• Add the unstable channel, type: sudo nix-channel --add https://channels.nixos.org/nixpkgs-unstable unstable
• To update the channels (bring in the possible apps), type: sudo nix-channel --update

More info here: https://nixos.wiki/wiki/Nix_channels

Step 2:

Edit your configuration.nix and add the following around your current config:

``` { config, pkgs, lib, ... }:

let unstable = import { config = { allowUnfree = true; }; }; in {

    #insert normal configuration text here

  } #remember to close the bracket!

```

At this point it would be good to save your config and try a rebuild to make sure there are no errors. If you have errors, make sure your brackets are in the right places and/or not missing. This step will make for less troubleshooting later on if something happens to be in the wrong spot!

Step 3:

Add "unstable." to the start of each application you want to use the unstable version. (Example: unstable.brave)

Step 4:

Rebuild your config, type: sudo nixos-rebuild switch

---

Example configuration.nix file:

```

Config file for NixOS

{ config, pkgs, lib, ... }:

Enable unstable apps from Nix repository.

let unstable = import { config = { allowUnfree = true; }; }; in {

#Put your normal config entries here in between the tags. Below is what your applications list needs to look like.

environment.systemPackages = with pkgs; [ appimage-run blender unstable.brave #Just add unstable. before the application name to enable the unstable version. chirp discord ];

} # Don't forget to close bracket at the end of the config file!

``` That should be all. Hope it helps.

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Zwei mal drei macht vier, \ widewidewitt und drei macht neune, \ ich mach mir die Welt, \ widewide wie sie mir gefällt. \ Pippi Langstrumpf

Egal, ob Koalitionsverhandlungen oder politischer Alltag: Die Kontroversen zwischen theoretisch verschiedenen Parteien verschwinden, wenn es um den Kampf gegen politische Gegner mit Rückenwind geht. Wer den Alteingesessenen die Pfründe ernsthaft streitig machen könnte, gegen den werden nicht nur «Brandmauern» errichtet, sondern der wird notfalls auch strafrechtlich verfolgt. Doppelstandards sind dabei selbstverständlich inklusive.

In Frankreich ist diese Woche Marine Le Pen wegen der Veruntreuung von EU-Geldern von einem Gericht verurteilt worden. Als Teil der Strafe wurde sie für fünf Jahre vom passiven Wahlrecht ausgeschlossen. Obwohl das Urteil nicht rechtskräftig ist – Le Pen kann in Berufung gehen –, haben die Richter das Verbot, bei Wahlen anzutreten, mit sofortiger Wirkung verhängt. Die Vorsitzende des rechtsnationalen Rassemblement National (RN) galt als aussichtsreiche Kandidatin für die Präsidentschaftswahl 2027.

Das ist in diesem Jahr bereits der zweite gravierende Fall von Wahlbeeinflussung durch die Justiz in einem EU-Staat. In Rumänien hatte Călin Georgescu im November die erste Runde der Präsidentenwahl überraschend gewonnen. Das Ergebnis wurde später annulliert, die behauptete «russische Wahlmanipulation» konnte jedoch nicht bewiesen werden. Die Kandidatur für die Wahlwiederholung im Mai wurde Georgescu kürzlich durch das Verfassungsgericht untersagt.

Die Veruntreuung öffentlicher Gelder muss untersucht und geahndet werden, das steht außer Frage. Diese Anforderung darf nicht selektiv angewendet werden. Hingegen mussten wir in der Vergangenheit bei ungleich schwerwiegenderen Fällen von (mutmaßlichem) Missbrauch ganz andere Vorgehensweisen erleben, etwa im Fall der heutigen EZB-Chefin Christine Lagarde oder im «Pfizergate»-Skandal um die Präsidentin der EU-Kommission Ursula von der Leyen.

Wenngleich derartige Angelegenheiten formal auf einer rechtsstaatlichen Grundlage beruhen mögen, so bleibt ein bitterer Beigeschmack. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob und inwieweit die Justiz politisch instrumentalisiert wird. Dies ist umso interessanter, als die Gewaltenteilung einen essenziellen Teil jeder demokratischen Ordnung darstellt, während die Bekämpfung des politischen Gegners mit juristischen Mitteln gerade bei den am lautesten rufenden Verteidigern «unserer Demokratie» populär zu sein scheint.

Die Delegationen von CDU/CSU und SPD haben bei ihren Verhandlungen über eine Regierungskoalition genau solche Maßnahmen diskutiert. «Im Namen der Wahrheit und der Demokratie» möchte man noch härter gegen «Desinformation» vorgehen und dafür zum Beispiel den Digital Services Act der EU erweitern. Auch soll der Tatbestand der Volksverhetzung verschärft werden – und im Entzug des passiven Wahlrechts münden können. Auf europäischer Ebene würde Friedrich Merz wohl gerne Ungarn das Stimmrecht entziehen.

Der Pegel an Unzufriedenheit und Frustration wächst in großen Teilen der Bevölkerung kontinuierlich. Arroganz, Machtmissbrauch und immer abstrusere Ausreden für offensichtlich willkürliche Maßnahmen werden kaum verhindern, dass den etablierten Parteien die Unterstützung entschwindet. In Deutschland sind die Umfrageergebnisse der AfD ein guter Gradmesser dafür.

[Vorlage Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 63d59db8:be170f6f

In a world overwhelmed by contradictions—climate change, inequality, political instability, and social disconnection—absurdity becomes an unavoidable lens through which to view the human condition. Inspired by Albert Camus' philosophy, this project explores the tension between life’s inherent meaninglessness and our persistent search for purpose.\ \ The individuals in these images embody a quiet defiance, navigating chaos with a sense of irony and authenticity. Through the act of revolt—against despair, against resignation—they find agency and resilience. These photographs invite reflection, not on solutions, but on our capacity to live meaningfully within absurdity.

Visit Katerina's website here.

Submit your work to the NOICE Visual Expression Awards for a chance to win a few thousand extra sats:

https://noicemagazine.com/SUBMISSIONS

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Spanien bleibt einer der Vorreiter im europäischen Prozess der totalen Überwachung per Digitalisierung. Seit Mittwoch ist dort der digitale Personalausweis verfügbar. Dabei handelt es sich um eine Regierungs-App, die auf dem Smartphone installiert werden muss und in den Stores von Google und Apple zu finden ist. Per Dekret von Regierungschef Pedro Sánchez und Zustimmung des Ministerrats ist diese Maßnahme jetzt in Kraft getreten.

Mit den üblichen Argumenten der Vereinfachung, des Komforts, der Effizienz und der Sicherheit preist das Innenministerium die «Innovation» an. Auch die Beteuerung, dass die digitale Variante parallel zum physischen Ausweis existieren wird und diesen nicht ersetzen soll, fehlt nicht. Während der ersten zwölf Monate wird «der Neue» noch nicht für alle Anwendungsfälle gültig sein, ab 2026 aber schon.

Dass die ganze Sache auch «Risiken und Nebenwirkungen» haben könnte, wird in den Mainstream-Medien eher selten thematisiert. Bestenfalls wird der Aspekt der Datensicherheit angesprochen, allerdings in der Regel direkt mit dem Regierungsvokabular von den «maximalen Sicherheitsgarantien» abgehandelt. Dennoch gibt es einige weitere Aspekte, die Bürger mit etwas Sinn für Privatsphäre bedenken sollten.

Um sich die digitale Version des nationalen Ausweises besorgen zu können (eine App mit dem Namen MiDNI), muss man sich vorab online registrieren. Dabei wird die Identität des Bürgers mit seiner mobilen Telefonnummer verknüpft. Diese obligatorische fixe Verdrahtung kennen wir von diversen anderen Apps und Diensten. Gleichzeitig ist das die Basis für eine perfekte Lokalisierbarkeit der Person.

Für jeden Vorgang der Identifikation in der Praxis wird später «eine Verbindung zu den Servern der Bundespolizei aufgebaut». Die Daten des Individuums werden «in Echtzeit» verifiziert und im Erfolgsfall von der Polizei signiert zurückgegeben. Das Ergebnis ist ein QR-Code mit zeitlich begrenzter Gültigkeit, der an Dritte weitergegeben werden kann.

Bei derartigen Szenarien sträuben sich einem halbwegs kritischen Staatsbürger die Nackenhaare. Allein diese minimale Funktionsbeschreibung lässt die totale Überwachung erkennen, die damit ermöglicht wird. Jede Benutzung des Ausweises wird künftig registriert, hinterlässt also Spuren. Und was ist, wenn die Server der Polizei einmal kein grünes Licht geben? Das wäre spätestens dann ein Problem, wenn der digitale doch irgendwann der einzig gültige Ausweis ist: Dann haben wir den abschaltbaren Bürger.

Dieser neue Vorstoß der Regierung von Pedro Sánchez ist ein weiterer Schritt in Richtung der «totalen Digitalisierung» des Landes, wie diese Politik in manchen Medien – nicht einmal kritisch, sondern sehr naiv – genannt wird. Ebenso verharmlosend wird auch erwähnt, dass sich das spanische Projekt des digitalen Ausweises nahtlos in die Initiativen der EU zu einer digitalen Identität für alle Bürger sowie des digitalen Euro einreiht.

In Zukunft könnte der neue Ausweis «auch in andere staatliche und private digitale Plattformen integriert werden», wie das Medienportal Cope ganz richtig bemerkt. Das ist die Perspektive.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

Dazu passend:

Nur Abschied vom Alleinfahren? Monströse spanische Überwachungsprojekte gemäß EU-Norm

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 975e4ad5:8d4847ce

Selfishness as Bitcoin’s Engine

Bitcoin, created by Satoshi Nakamoto, operates on a clear mechanism: miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, verifying transactions on the network. In return, they earn rewards in Bitcoin. This is pure self-interest—miners want to maximize their profits. But while pursuing personal gain, they inadvertently maintain the entire system. Each new block added to the blockchain makes the network more stable and resilient against attacks. The more miners join, the more decentralized the system becomes, rendering it nearly impossible to manipulate.

This mechanism is brilliant because it taps into human nature—the desire for personal gain—to create something greater. Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altruism or good intentions. It relies on rational self-interest, which drives individuals to act in their own favor, ultimately benefiting the entire community.

The World Works the Same Way

This concept isn’t unique to Bitcoin. The world is full of examples where personal interest leads to collective progress. When an entrepreneur creates a new product, they do so to make money, but in the process, they create jobs, advance technology, and improve people’s lives. When a scientist works on a breakthrough, they may be driven by fame or financial reward, but the result is often a discovery that changes the world. Even in everyday life, when we buy products or services for our own convenience, we support the economy and encourage innovation.

Of course, self-interest doesn’t always lead to positive outcomes. Technologies created with good intentions can be misused—for example, in wars or for fraud. But even these negative aspects don’t halt progress. Competition and the drive for survival push humanity to find solutions, learn from mistakes, and keep moving forward. This is the cycle of development: individual self-interest fuels innovations that make the world more technological and connected.

Nature and Bitcoin: The DNA Parallel

To understand this mechanism, let’s look to nature. Consider the cells in a living organism. Each cell operates independently, following the instructions encoded in its DNA—a code that dictates its actions. The cell doesn’t “know” about the entire body, nor does it care. It simply strives for its own survival, performing its functions. But when billions of cells work together, following this code, they create something greater—a living organism.

Bitcoin is like the DNA of a decentralized system. Each miner is like a cell, following the “instructions” of the protocol to survive (profit). They don’t think about the entire network, only their own reward. But when all miners act together, they create something bigger—a global, secure, and resilient financial system. This is the beauty of decentralization: everyone acts for themselves, but the result is collective.

Selfishness and Humanity

Humans are no different from cells. Each of us wants to thrive—to have security, comfort, and success. But in pursuing these goals, we contribute to society. A teacher educates because they want to earn a living, but they shape future generations. An engineer builds a bridge because it’s their job, but it facilitates transportation for millions. Even in our personal lives, when we care for our families, we strengthen the social bonds that make society stronger.

Of course, there are exceptions—people who act solely for personal gain without regard for consequences. But even these outliers don’t change the bigger picture. Selfishness, when channeled correctly, is a driver of progress. Bitcoin is proof of this—a technology that turns personal interest into global innovation.

Bitcoin is more than just a cryptocurrency; it’s a mirror of human nature and the way the world works. Its design harnesses selfishness to create something sustainable and valuable. Just like cells in a body or people in society, Bitcoin miners work for themselves but contribute to something greater. It’s a reminder that even in our pursuit of personal gain, we can make the world a better place—as long as we follow the right “code.”

@ aa8de34f:a6ffe696

In seinem Beitrag vom 30. März 2025 fragt Henning Rosenbusch auf Telegram angesichts zunehmender digitaler Kontrolle und staatlicher Allmacht:

„Wie soll sich gegen eine solche Tyrannei noch ein Widerstand formieren können, selbst im Untergrund? Sehe ich nicht.“\ (Quelle: t.me/rosenbusch/25228)

Er beschreibt damit ein Gefühl der Ohnmacht, das viele teilen: Eine Welt, in der Totalitarismus nicht mehr mit Panzern, sondern mit Algorithmen kommt. Wo Zugriff auf Geld, Meinungsfreiheit und Teilhabe vom Wohlverhalten abhängt. Der Bürger als kontrollierbare Variable im Code des Staates.\ Die Frage ist berechtigt. Doch die Antwort darauf liegt nicht in alten Widerstandsbildern – sondern in einer neuen Realität.

-- Denn es braucht keinen Untergrund mehr. --

Der Widerstand der Zukunft trägt keinen Tarnanzug. Er ist nicht konspirativ, sondern transparent. Nicht bewaffnet, sondern mathematisch beweisbar. Bitcoin steht nicht am Rand dieser Entwicklung – es ist ihr Fundament. Eine Bastion aus physikalischer Realität, spieltheoretischem Schutz und ökonomischer Wahrheit. Es ist nicht unfehlbar, aber unbestechlich. Nicht perfekt, aber immun gegen zentrale Willkür.

Hier entsteht kein „digitales Gegenreich“, sondern eine dezentrale Renaissance. Keine Revolte aus Wut, sondern eine stille Abkehr: von Zwang zu Freiwilligkeit, von Abhängigkeit zu Selbstverantwortung. Diese Revolution führt keine Kriege. Sie braucht keine Führer. Sie ist ein Netzwerk. Jeder Knoten ein Individuum. Jede Entscheidung ein Akt der Selbstermächtigung.

Weltweit wachsen Freiheits-Zitadellen aus dieser Idee: wirtschaftlich autark, digital souverän, lokal verankert und global vernetzt. Sie sind keine Utopien im luftleeren Raum, sondern konkrete Realitäten – angetrieben von Energie, Code und dem menschlichen Wunsch nach Würde.

Der Globalismus alter Prägung – zentralistisch, monopolistisch, bevormundend – wird an seiner eigenen Hybris zerbrechen. Seine Werkzeuge der Kontrolle werden ihn nicht retten. Im Gegenteil: Seine Geister werden ihn verfolgen und erlegen.

Und während die alten Mächte um Erhalt kämpfen, wächst eine neue Welt – nicht im Schatten, sondern im Offenen. Nicht auf Gewalt gebaut, sondern auf Mathematik, Physik und Freiheit.

Die Tyrannei sieht keinen Widerstand.\ Weil sie nicht erkennt, dass er längst begonnen hat.\ Unwiderruflich. Leise. Überall.

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Der Irrsinn ist bei Einzelnen etwas Seltenes – \ aber bei Gruppen, Parteien, Völkern, Zeiten die Regel. \ Friedrich Nietzsche

Erinnern Sie sich an die Horrorkomödie «Scary Movie»? Nicht, dass ich diese Art Filme besonders erinnerungswürdig fände, aber einige Szenen daraus sind doch gewissermaßen Klassiker. Dazu zählt eine, die das Verhalten vieler Protagonisten in Horrorfilmen parodiert, wenn sie in Panik flüchten. Welchen Weg nimmt wohl die Frau in der Situation auf diesem Bild?

Diese Szene kommt mir automatisch in den Sinn, wenn ich aktuelle Entwicklungen in Europa betrachte. Weitreichende Entscheidungen gehen wider jede Logik in die völlig falsche Richtung. Nur ist das hier alles andere als eine Komödie, sondern bitterernst. Dieser Horror ist leider sehr real.

Die Europäische Union hat sich selbst über Jahre konsequent in eine Sackgasse manövriert. Sie hat es versäumt, sich und ihre Politik selbstbewusst und im Einklang mit ihren Wurzeln auf dem eigenen Kontinent zu positionieren. Stattdessen ist sie in blinder Treue den vermeintlichen «transatlantischen Freunden» auf ihrem Konfrontationskurs gen Osten gefolgt.

In den USA haben sich die Vorzeichen allerdings mittlerweile geändert, und die einst hoch gelobten «Freunde und Partner» erscheinen den europäischen «Führern» nicht mehr vertrauenswürdig. Das ist spätestens seit der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz, der Rede von Vizepräsident J. D. Vance und den empörten Reaktionen offensichtlich. Große Teile Europas wirken seitdem wie ein aufgescheuchter Haufen kopfloser Hühner. Orientierung und Kontrolle sind völlig abhanden gekommen.

Statt jedoch umzukehren oder wenigstens zu bremsen und vielleicht einen Abzweig zu suchen, geben die Crash-Piloten jetzt auf dem Weg durch die Sackgasse erst richtig Gas. Ja sie lösen sogar noch die Sicherheitsgurte und deaktivieren die Airbags. Den vor Angst dauergelähmten Passagieren fällt auch nichts Besseres ein und so schließen sie einfach die Augen. Derweil übertrumpfen sich die Kommentatoren des Events gegenseitig in sensationslüsterner «Berichterstattung».

Wie schon die deutsche Außenministerin mit höchsten UN-Ambitionen, Annalena Baerbock, proklamiert auch die Europäische Kommission einen «Frieden durch Stärke». Zu dem jetzt vorgelegten, selbstzerstörerischen Fahrplan zur Ankurbelung der Rüstungsindustrie, genannt «Weißbuch zur europäischen Verteidigung – Bereitschaft 2030», erklärte die Kommissionspräsidentin, die «Ära der Friedensdividende» sei längst vorbei. Soll das heißen, Frieden bringt nichts ein? Eine umfassende Zusammenarbeit an dauerhaften europäischen Friedenslösungen steht demnach jedenfalls nicht zur Debatte.

Zusätzlich brisant ist, dass aktuell «die ganze EU von Deutschen regiert wird», wie der EU-Parlamentarier und ehemalige UN-Diplomat Michael von der Schulenburg beobachtet hat. Tatsächlich sitzen neben von der Leyen und Strack-Zimmermann noch einige weitere Deutsche in – vor allem auch in Krisenzeiten – wichtigen Spitzenposten der Union. Vor dem Hintergrund der Kriegstreiberei in Deutschland muss eine solche Dominanz mindestens nachdenklich stimmen.

Ihre ursprünglichen Grundwerte wie Demokratie, Freiheit, Frieden und Völkerverständigung hat die EU kontinuierlich in leere Worthülsen verwandelt. Diese werden dafür immer lächerlicher hochgehalten und beschworen.

Es wird dringend Zeit, dass wir, der Souverän, diesem erbärmlichen und gefährlichen Trauerspiel ein Ende setzen und die Fäden selbst in die Hand nehmen. In diesem Sinne fordert uns auch das «European Peace Project» auf, am 9. Mai im Rahmen eines Kunstprojekts den Frieden auszurufen. Seien wir dabei!

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

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Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

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Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Governments and the press often publish data on the population’s knowledge of Catalan. However, this data only represents one stage in the linguistic process and does not accurately reflect the state of the language, since a language only has a future if it is used. Knowledge is a necessary step toward using a language, but it is not the final stage — that stage is actual use.

So what is the state of Catalan usage? If we look at data on regular use, we see that the Catalan language has remained stagnant over the past hundred years, with nearly the same number of regular speakers. In 1930, there were around 2.5 million speakers, and in 2018, there were 2.7 million.

Regular use of Catalan in Catalonia, in millions of speakers. The dotted segments are an estimate of the trend, based on the statements of Joan Coromines and adjusted according to Catalonia’s population growth.

These figures wouldn’t necessarily be negative if the language’s integrity were strong, that is, if its existence weren’t threatened by other languages. But the population of Catalonia has grown from 2.7 million in 1930 to 7.5 million in 2018. This means that today, regular Catalan speakers make up only 36% of Catalonia’s population, whereas in 1930, they represented 90%.

Regular use of Catalan in Catalonia, as a percentage of speakers. The dotted segments are an estimate of the trend, based on the statements of Joan Coromines and adjusted according to Catalonia’s population growth.

The language that has gained the most ground is mainly Spanish, which went from 200,000 speakers in 1930 to 3.8 million in 2018. Moreover, speakers of other foreign languages (500,000 speakers) have also grown more than Catalan speakers over the past hundred years.

Notes, Sources, and Methodology

The data from 2003 onward is taken from Idescat (source). Before 2003, there are no official statistics, but we can make interpretations based on historical evidence. The data prior to 2003 is calculated based on two key pieces of evidence:

• 1st Interpretation: In 1930, 90% of the population of Catalonia spoke Catalan regularly. Source and evidence: The Romance linguist Joan Coromines i Vigneaux, a renowned 20th-century linguist, stated in his 1950 work "El que s'ha de saber de la llengua catalana" that "In this territory [Greater Catalonia], almost the entire population speaks Catalan as their usual language" (1, 2).\ While "almost the entire population" is not a precise number, we can interpret it quantitatively as somewhere between 80% and 100%. For the sake of a moderate estimate, we assume 90% of the population were regular Catalan speakers, with the remaining 10% being immigrants and officials of the Spanish state.

• 2nd Interpretation: Regarding population growth between 1930 and 1998, on average, 60% is due to immigration (mostly adopting or already using Spanish language), while 40% is natural growth (likely to acquire Catalan language from childhood). Source and evidence: Between 1999 and 2019, when more detailed data is available, immigration accounted for 68% of population growth. From 1930 to 1998, there was a comparable wave of migration, especially between 1953 and 1973, largely of Spanish-speaking origin (3, 4, 5, 6). To maintain a moderate estimate, we assume 60% of population growth during that period was due to immigration, with the ratio varying depending on whether the period experienced more or less total growth.

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Per les xarxes socials es parla amb efusivitat de que Bitcoin arribarà a valer milions de dòlars. El mateix Hal Finney allà pel 2009, va estimar el potencial, en un cas extrem, de 10 milions $:

\> As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. Withn 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million. <https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/emails/bitcoin-list/threads/4/>

No estic d'acord amb els càlculs del bo d'en Hal, ja que no consider que la valoració d'una moneda funcioni així. En qualsevol cas, el 2009 la capitalització de la riquesa mundial era de 300 bilions $, avui és de 660 bilions $, és a dir ha anat pujant un 5,3% de manera anual, $$(660/300)^{1/15} = 1.053$$

La primera apreciació amb aquest augment anual del 5% és que si algú llegeix aquest article i té diners que no necessita aturats al banc (estalvis), ara és bon moment per començar a moure'ls, encara sigui amb moviments defensius (títols de deute governamental o la propietat del primer habitatge). La desagregació per actius dels 660 bilions és:

1. Immobiliari residencial = 260 bilions $

2. Títols de deute = 125 bilions $

3. Accions = 110 bilions

4. Diners fiat = 78 bilions $

5. Terres agrícoles = 35 bilions $

6. Immobiliari comercial = 32 bilions $

7. Or = 18 bilions $

8. Bitcoin = 2 bilions $

La riquesa mundial és major que 660 bilions, però aquests 8 actius crec que són els principals, ja que s'aprecien a dia d'avui. El PIB global anual és de 84 bilions $, que no són bromes, però aquest actius creats (cotxes, ordinadors, roba, aliments...), perden valor una vegada produïts, aproximant-se a 0 passades unes dècades.

Partint d'aquest nombres com a vàlids, la meva posició base respecte de Bitcoin, ja des de fa un parell d'anys, és que te capacitat per posar-se al nivell de capitalització de l'or, perquè conceptualment s'emulen bé, i perquè tot i que Bitcoin no té un valor tangible industrial com pot tenir l'or, sí que te un valor intangible tecnològic, que és pales en tot l'ecosistema que s'ha creat al seu voltant:

• Creació de tecnologies de pagament instantani: la Lightning Network, Cashu i la Liquid Network.

• Producció d'aplicacions amb l'íntegrament de pagaments instantanis. Especialment destacar el protocol de Nostr (Primal, Amethyst, Damus, Yakihonne, 0xChat...)

• Industria energètica: permet estabilitzar xarxes elèctriques i emprar energia malbaratada (flaring gas), amb la generació de demanda de hardware i software dedicat.

• Educació financera i defensa de drets humans. És una eina de defensa contra governs i estats repressius. La Human Rights Foundation fa una feina bastant destacada d'educació.

Ara posem el potencial en nombres:

• Si iguala l'empresa amb major capitalització, que és Apple, arribaria a uns 160 mil dòlars per bitcoin.

• Si iguala el nivell de l'or, arribaria a uns 800 mil dòlars per bitcoin.

• Si iguala el nivell del diner fiat líquid, arribaria a un 3.7 milions de dòlars per bitcoin.

Crec que igualar la capitalització d'Apple és probable en els pròxims 5 - 10 anys. També igualar el nivell de l'or en els pròxims 20 anys em sembla una fita possible. Ara bé, qualsevol fita per sota d'aquesta capitalització ha d'implicar tota una serie de successos al món que no sóc capaç d'imaginar. Que no vol dir que no pugui passar.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.

Small Wins

Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.

Ego is Volatile

Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.

Simplicity

There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.

The Big Picture

Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Wir werden nicht zulassen, dass technisch manches möglich ist, \ aber der Staat es nicht nutzt. \ Angela Merkel

Die Modalverben zu erklären, ist im Deutschunterricht manchmal nicht ganz einfach. Nicht alle Fremdsprachen unterscheiden zum Beispiel bei der Frage nach einer Möglichkeit gleichermaßen zwischen «können» im Sinne von «die Gelegenheit, Kenntnis oder Fähigkeit haben» und «dürfen» als «die Erlaubnis oder Berechtigung haben». Das spanische Wort «poder» etwa steht für beides.

Ebenso ist vielen Schülern auf den ersten Blick nicht recht klar, dass das logische Gegenteil von «müssen» nicht unbedingt «nicht müssen» ist, sondern vielmehr «nicht dürfen». An den Verkehrsschildern lässt sich so etwas meistens recht gut erklären: Manchmal muss man abbiegen, aber manchmal darf man eben nicht.

Dieses Beispiel soll ein wenig die Verwirrungstaktik veranschaulichen, die in der Politik gerne verwendet wird, um unpopuläre oder restriktive Maßnahmen Stück für Stück einzuführen. Zuerst ist etwas einfach innovativ und bringt viele Vorteile. Vor allem ist es freiwillig, jeder kann selber entscheiden, niemand muss mitmachen. Später kann man zunehmend weniger Alternativen wählen, weil sie verschwinden, und irgendwann verwandelt sich alles andere in «nicht dürfen» – die Maßnahme ist obligatorisch.

Um die Durchsetzung derartiger Initiativen strategisch zu unterstützen und nett zu verpacken, gibt es Lobbyisten, gerne auch NGOs genannt. Dass das «NG» am Anfang dieser Abkürzung übersetzt «Nicht-Regierungs-» bedeutet, ist ein Anachronismus. Das war vielleicht früher einmal so, heute ist eher das Gegenteil gemeint.

In unserer modernen Zeit wird enorm viel Lobbyarbeit für die Digitalisierung praktisch sämtlicher Lebensbereiche aufgewendet. Was das auf dem Sektor der Mobilität bedeuten kann, haben wir diese Woche anhand aktueller Entwicklungen in Spanien beleuchtet. Begründet teilweise mit Vorgaben der Europäischen Union arbeitet man dort fleißig an einer «neuen Mobilität», basierend auf «intelligenter» technologischer Infrastruktur. Derartige Anwandlungen wurden auch schon als «Technofeudalismus» angeprangert.

Nationale Zugangspunkte für Mobilitätsdaten im Sinne der EU gibt es nicht nur in allen Mitgliedsländern, sondern auch in der Schweiz und in Großbritannien. Das Vereinigte Königreich beteiligt sich darüber hinaus an anderen EU-Projekten für digitale Überwachungs- und Kontrollmaßnahmen, wie dem biometrischen Identifizierungssystem für «nachhaltigen Verkehr und Tourismus».

Natürlich marschiert auch Deutschland stracks und euphorisch in Richtung digitaler Zukunft. Ohne vernetzte Mobilität und einen «verlässlichen Zugang zu Daten, einschließlich Echtzeitdaten» komme man in der Verkehrsplanung und -steuerung nicht aus, erklärt die Regierung. Der Interessenverband der IT-Dienstleister Bitkom will «die digitale Transformation der deutschen Wirtschaft und Verwaltung vorantreiben». Dazu bewirbt er unter anderem die Konzepte Smart City, Smart Region und Smart Country und behauptet, deutsche Großstädte «setzen bei Mobilität voll auf Digitalisierung».

Es steht zu befürchten, dass das umfassende Sammeln, Verarbeiten und Vernetzen von Daten, das angeblich die Menschen unterstützen soll (und theoretisch ja auch könnte), eher dazu benutzt wird, sie zu kontrollieren und zu manipulieren. Je elektrischer und digitaler unsere Umgebung wird, desto größer sind diese Möglichkeiten. Im Ergebnis könnten solche Prozesse den Bürger nicht nur einschränken oder überflüssig machen, sondern in mancherlei Hinsicht regelrecht abschalten. Eine gesunde Skepsis ist also geboten.

[Titelbild: Pixabay]

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Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Er ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

@ aa8de34f:a6ffe696

19. März 2025

🔐 1. SHA-256 is Quantum-Resistant

Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism relies on SHA-256, a hashing algorithm. Even with a powerful quantum computer, SHA-256 remains secure because:

• Quantum computers excel at factoring large numbers (Shor’s Algorithm).
• However, SHA-256 is a one-way function, meaning there's no known quantum algorithm that can efficiently reverse it.
• Grover’s Algorithm (which theoretically speeds up brute force attacks) would still require 2¹²⁸ operations to break SHA-256 – far beyond practical reach.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

🔑 2. Public Key Vulnerability – But Only If You Reuse Addresses

Bitcoin uses Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to generate keys.

• A quantum computer could use Shor’s Algorithm to break SECP256K1, the curve Bitcoin uses.
• If you never reuse addresses, it is an additional security element
• 🔑 1. Bitcoin Addresses Are NOT Public Keys

Many people assume a Bitcoin address is the public key—this is wrong.

• When you receive Bitcoin, it is sent to a hashed public key (the Bitcoin address).
• The actual public key is never exposed because it is the Bitcoin Adress who addresses the Public Key which never reveals the creation of a public key by a spend
• Bitcoin uses Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) or newer methods like Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH), which add extra layers of security.

🕵️♂️ 2.1 The Public Key Never Appears

• When you send Bitcoin, your wallet creates a digital signature.
• This signature uses the private key to prove ownership.
• The Bitcoin address is revealed and creates the Public Key
• The public key remains hidden inside the Bitcoin script and Merkle tree.

This means: ✔ The public key is never exposed. ✔ Quantum attackers have nothing to target, attacking a Bitcoin Address is a zero value game.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

🔄 3. Bitcoin Can Upgrade

Even if quantum computers eventually become a real threat:

• Bitcoin developers can upgrade to quantum-safe cryptography (e.g., lattice-based cryptography or post-quantum signatures like Dilithium).
• Bitcoin’s decentralized nature ensures a network-wide soft fork or hard fork could transition to quantum-resistant keys.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

⏳ 4. The 10-Minute Block Rule as a Security Feature

• Bitcoin’s network operates on a 10-minute block interval, meaning:Even if an attacker had immense computational power (like a quantum computer), they could only attempt an attack every 10 minutes.Unlike traditional encryption, where a hacker could continuously brute-force keys, Bitcoin’s system resets the challenge with every new block.This limits the window of opportunity for quantum attacks.

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🎯 5. Quantum Attack Needs to Solve a Block in Real-Time

• A quantum attacker must solve the cryptographic puzzle (Proof of Work) in under 10 minutes.
• The problem? Any slight error changes the hash completely, meaning:If the quantum computer makes a mistake (even 0.0001% probability), the entire attack fails.Quantum decoherence (loss of qubit stability) makes error correction a massive challenge.The computational cost of recovering from an incorrect hash is still incredibly high.

---

⚡ 6. Network Resilience – Even if a Block Is Hacked

• Even if a quantum computer somehow solved a block instantly:The network would quickly recognize and reject invalid transactions.Other miners would continue mining under normal cryptographic rules.51% Attack? The attacker would need to consistently beat the entire Bitcoin network, which is not sustainable.

---

🔄 7. The Logarithmic Difficulty Adjustment Neutralizes Threats

• Bitcoin adjusts mining difficulty every 2016 blocks (\~2 weeks).
• If quantum miners appeared and suddenly started solving blocks too quickly, the difficulty would adjust upward, making attacks significantly harder.
• This self-correcting mechanism ensures that even quantum computers wouldn't easily overpower the network.

---

🔥 Final Verdict: Quantum Computers Are Too Slow for Bitcoin

✔ The 10-minute rule limits attack frequency – quantum computers can’t keep up.

✔ Any slight miscalculation ruins the attack, resetting all progress.

✔ Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment would react, neutralizing quantum advantages.

Even if quantum computers reach their theoretical potential, Bitcoin’s game theory and design make it incredibly resistant. 🚀

@ f240be2b:00c761ba

Wirtschaftswunder werden oft als mysteriöse, unvorhersehbare Phänomene dargestellt – als wären sie glückliche Zufälle oder das Ergebnis genialer Planungen. Bei näherer Betrachtung offenbart sich jedoch ein grundlegendes Muster: Diese vermeintlichen "Wunder" sind keine übernatürlichen Ereignisse, sondern das natürliche Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Die Erfolgsgeschichten verschiedener Länder bestätigen diese These und zeigen, dass Wohlstand entsteht, wenn Menschen die Freiheit haben, zu handeln, zu produzieren und zu innovieren.

Das deutsche Wirtschaftswunder

Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg lag Deutschland in Trümmern. Die Industrieproduktion war auf ein Viertel des Vorkriegsniveaus gesunken, und Millionen Menschen lebten in Armut. Doch innerhalb weniger Jahre erlebte Westdeutschland einen beispiellosen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, der als "Wirtschaftswunder" in die Geschichte einging.

Der Wandel begann mit Ludwig Erhards mutiger Währungsreform und Preisfreigabe im Jahr 1948. Erhard, damals Direktor der Wirtschaftsverwaltung, schaffte Preiskontrollen ab und führte die Deutsche Mark ein. Diese Maßnahmen wurden von Besatzungsmächten und deutschen Sozialisten skeptisch betrachtet und waren zunächst unpopulär. Doch die Ergebnisse sprachen für sich: Über Nacht füllten sich die Ladenregale wieder, und die Schwarzmärkte verschwanden.

Das Kernprinzip war einfach: Erhard gab den Menschen ihre wirtschaftliche Freiheit zurück. Er schuf einen stabilen Rechtsrahmen, reduzierte staatliche Eingriffe und förderte den freien Wettbewerb. Die Sozialisten bekämpften diese Entwicklung von Anfang an, deuteten diese jedoch im Nachhinein als “soziale Marktwirtschaft” um, diese Lüge verbreiten sie noch heute sehr erfolgreich.

Die freie Marktwirtschaft erlaubte es den Deutschen, ihre unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten zu entfalten und ihre zerstörte Wirtschaft wieder aufzubauen.\ Das Ergebnis: Zwischen 1950 und 1960 wuchs das westdeutsche BIP um mehr als 8% jährlich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sank von 11% auf unter 1%, und Deutschland wurde zu einer der führenden Exportnationen der Welt. Was als "Wunder" bezeichnet wurde, war tatsächlich die natürliche Konsequenz wiederhergestellter wirtschaftlicher Freiheit.

Chiles wirtschaftliche Transformation

Chile bietet ein weiteres eindrucksvolles Beispiel. In den frühen 1970er Jahren litt das Land unter einer Hyperinflation von 700%, einem schrumpfenden BIP und zunehmender Armut. Die Transformation begann in den späten 1970er Jahren mit tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen.

Die chilenische Regierung privatisierte Staatsunternehmen, öffnete Märkte für internationalen Handel, schuf ein stabiles Finanzsystem und führte ein innovatives Rentensystem ein. Während andere lateinamerikanische Länder mit protektionistischen Maßnahmen experimentierten, entschied sich Chile für wirtschaftliche Freiheit.

Die Ergebnisse waren beeindruckend: Zwischen 1975 und 2000 verdreifachte sich Chiles Pro-Kopf-Einkommen. Die Armutsquote sank von 45% auf unter 10%. Heute hat Chile das höchste Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Südamerika und eine der stabilsten Wirtschaften der Region.

Mit einer gewissen Melancholie müssen wir beobachten, wie die hart erkämpften Errungenschaften Chiles allmählich in den Schatten der Vergänglichkeit gleiten. Was einst als Leuchtturm wirtschaftlicher Transformation strahlte, wird nun von den Nebeln der kollektiven Amnesie umhüllt. In dieser Dämmerung der Erinnerung finden interventionistische Strömungen erneut fruchtbaren Boden.

Dieses Phänomen ist nicht auf Chile beschränkt. Auch in Deutschland verblasst die Erinnerung an die transformative Kraft der freien Marktwirtschaft. Die Geschichte wird umgedichtet, in der wirtschaftliche Freiheit als unbarmherziger Kapitalismus karikiert wird, während staatliche Intervention als einziger Weg zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit glorifiziert wird.

Chinas große Öffnung

Im Reich der Mitte vollzog sich die vielleicht dramatischste wirtschaftliche Metamorphose unserer Zeit. Nach Jahrzehnten der Isolation und planwirtschaftlicher Starrheit öffnete China unter Deng Xiaoping vorsichtig die Tore zur wirtschaftlichen Freiheit.

Die Transformation begann in den Reisfeldern, wo Bauern erstmals seit Generationen über ihre eigene Ernte bestimmen durften. Sie setzte sich fort in den pulsierenden Sonderwirtschaftszonen, wo unternehmerische Energie auf globale Märkte traf. 

Das Ergebnis war atemberaubend: Fast vier Jahrzehnte mit durchschnittlich 10 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum jährlich – eine beispiellose Leistung in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Mehr als 800 Millionen Menschen überwanden die Armut und fanden den Weg in die globale Mittelschicht. Selbst die partielle Einführung wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten entfesselte eine Produktivität, die die Welt veränderte.

Die zeitlose Lektion

Das Geheimnis wirtschaftlicher Erneuerung liegt nicht in komplexen Theorien oder staatlichen Eingriffen, sondern in der einfachen Weisheit, Menschen die Freiheit zu geben, ihre Träume zu verwirklichen. Wenn wir von "Wirtschaftswundern" sprechen, verkennen wir die wahre Natur dieser Transformationen.

Sie sind keine mysteriösen Anomalien, sondern vielmehr Bestätigungen eines zeitlosen Prinzips: In der fruchtbaren Erde wirtschaftlicher Freiheit blüht der menschliche Erfindungsgeist. Diese Erkenntnis ist keine ideologische Position, sondern eine durch die Geschichte vielfach bestätigte Wahrheit.

Die Lektion dieser Erfolgsgeschichten ist sowohl schlicht als auch tiefgründig: Der Weg zu Wohlstand und menschlicher Entfaltung führt über die Anerkennung und den Schutz wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten. In dieser Erkenntnis liegt vielleicht das wahre Wunder – die beständige Kraft einer einfachen Idee, die immer wieder Leben und Hoffnung in die dunkelsten wirtschaftlichen Landschaften bringt.

Der aufsteigende Stern des Südens

Jenseits der Andenkette, wo Argentinien und Chile ihre lange Grenze teilen, entfaltet sich eine neue Erfolgsgeschichte. Mit mutigen Reformen und einer Rückbesinnung auf wirtschaftliche Freiheit erwacht dieses Land mit viel Potenzial aus seinem langen Schlummer. Was wir beobachten, ist nichts weniger als die Geburt eines neuen südamerikanischen Wirtschaftswunders – geboren aus der Erkenntnis, dass Wohlstand nicht verteilt, sondern erschaffen wird.

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Nur wenn wir aufeinander zugehen, haben wir die Chance \ auf Überwindung der gegenseitigen Ressentiments! \ Dr. med. dent. Jens Knipphals

In Wolfsburg sollte es kürzlich eine Gesprächsrunde von Kritikern der Corona-Politik mit Oberbürgermeister Dennis Weilmann und Vertretern der Stadtverwaltung geben. Der Zahnarzt und langjährige Maßnahmenkritiker Jens Knipphals hatte diese Einladung ins Rathaus erwirkt und publiziert. Seine Motivation:

«Ich möchte die Spaltung der Gesellschaft überwinden. Dazu ist eine umfassende Aufarbeitung der Corona-Krise in der Öffentlichkeit notwendig.»

Schon früher hatte Knipphals Antworten von den Kommunalpolitikern verlangt, zum Beispiel bei öffentlichen Bürgerfragestunden. Für das erwartete Treffen im Rathaus formulierte er Fragen wie: Warum wurden fachliche Argumente der Kritiker ignoriert? Weshalb wurde deren Ausgrenzung, Diskreditierung und Entmenschlichung nicht entgegengetreten? In welcher Form übernehmen Rat und Verwaltung in Wolfsburg persönlich Verantwortung für die erheblichen Folgen der politischen Corona-Krise?

Der Termin fand allerdings nicht statt – der Bürgermeister sagte ihn kurz vorher wieder ab. Knipphals bezeichnete Weilmann anschließend als Wiederholungstäter, da das Stadtoberhaupt bereits 2022 zu einem Runden Tisch in der Sache eingeladen hatte, den es dann nie gab. Gegenüber Multipolar erklärte der Arzt, Weilmann wolle scheinbar eine öffentliche Aufarbeitung mit allen Mitteln verhindern. Er selbst sei «inzwischen absolut desillusioniert» und die einzige Lösung sei, dass die Verantwortlichen gingen.

Die Aufarbeitung der Plandemie beginne bei jedem von uns selbst, sei aber letztlich eine gesamtgesellschaftliche Aufgabe, schreibt Peter Frey, der den «Fall Wolfsburg» auch in seinem Blog behandelt. Diese Aufgabe sei indes deutlich größer, als viele glaubten. Erfreulicherweise sei der öffentliche Informationsraum inzwischen größer, trotz der weiterhin unverfrorenen Desinformations-Kampagnen der etablierten Massenmedien.

Frey erinnert daran, dass Dennis Weilmann mitverantwortlich für gravierende Grundrechtseinschränkungen wie die 2021 eingeführten 2G-Regeln in der Wolfsburger Innenstadt zeichnet. Es sei naiv anzunehmen, dass ein Funktionär einzig im Interesse der Bürger handeln würde. Als früherer Dezernent des Amtes für Wirtschaft, Digitalisierung und Kultur der Autostadt kenne Weilmann zum Beispiel die Verknüpfung von Fördergeldern mit politischen Zielsetzungen gut.

Wolfsburg wurde damals zu einem Modellprojekt des Bundesministeriums des Innern (BMI) und war Finalist im Bitkom-Wettbewerb «Digitale Stadt». So habe rechtzeitig vor der Plandemie das Projekt «Smart City Wolfsburg» anlaufen können, das der Stadt «eine Vorreiterrolle für umfassende Vernetzung und Datenerfassung» aufgetragen habe, sagt Frey. Die Vereinten Nationen verkauften dann derartige «intelligente» Überwachungs- und Kontrollmaßnahmen ebenso als Rettung in der Not wie das Magazin Forbes im April 2020:

«Intelligente Städte können uns helfen, die Coronavirus-Pandemie zu bekämpfen. In einer wachsenden Zahl von Ländern tun die intelligenten Städte genau das. Regierungen und lokale Behörden nutzen Smart-City-Technologien, Sensoren und Daten, um die Kontakte von Menschen aufzuspüren, die mit dem Coronavirus infiziert sind. Gleichzeitig helfen die Smart Cities auch dabei, festzustellen, ob die Regeln der sozialen Distanzierung eingehalten werden.»

Offensichtlich gibt es viele Aspekte zu bedenken und zu durchleuten, wenn es um die Aufklärung und Aufarbeitung der sogenannten «Corona-Pandemie» und der verordneten Maßnahmen geht. Frustration und Desillusion sind angesichts der Realitäten absolut verständlich. Gerade deswegen sind Initiativen wie die von Jens Knipphals so bewundernswert und so wichtig – ebenso wie eine seiner Kernthesen: «Wir müssen aufeinander zugehen, da hilft alles nichts».

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Dieser Beitrag ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ b83a28b7:35919450

This article was originally part of the sermon of Plebchain Radio Episode 111 (May 2, 2025) that nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpqtvqc82mv8cezhax5r34n4muc2c4pgjz8kaye2smj032nngg52clq7fgefr and I did with nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7ct4w35zumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyzx4h2fv3n9r6hrnjtcrjw43t0g0cmmrgvjmg525rc8hexkxc0kd2rhtk62 and nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpq4wxtsrj7g2jugh70pfkzjln43vgn4p7655pgky9j9w9d75u465pqahkzd0 of the nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyqwfvwrccp4j2xsuuvkwg0y6a20637t6f4cc5zzjkx030dkztt7t5hydajn

Listen to the full episode here:

<<https://fountain.fm/episode/Ln9Ej0zCZ5dEwfo8w2Ho>>

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Bitcoin has always been a narrative revolution disguised as code. White paper, cypherpunk lore, pizza‑day legends - every block is a paragraph in the world’s most relentless epic. But code alone rarely converts the skeptic; it’s the camp‑fire myth that slips past the prefrontal cortex and shakes hands with the limbic system. People don’t adopt protocols first - they fall in love with protagonists.

Early adopters heard the white‑paper hymn, but most folks need characters first: a pizza‑day dreamer; a mother in a small country, crushed by the cost of remittance; a Warsaw street vendor swapping złoty for sats. When their arcs land, the brain releases a neurochemical OP_RETURN which says, “I belong in this plot.” That’s the sly roundabout orange pill: conviction smuggled inside catharsis.

That’s why, from 22–25 May in Warsaw’s Kinoteka, the Bitcoin Film Fest is loading its reels with rebellion. Each documentary, drama, and animated rabbit‑hole is a stealth wallet, zipping conviction straight into the feels of anyone still clasped within the cold claw of fiat. You come for the plot, you leave checking block heights.

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Here's the clip of the sermon from the episode:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqqsy43fwz8es2wnn65rh0udc05tumdnx5xagvzd88ptncspmesdqhygcrvpf2

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Die grauenvollste Aussicht ist die der Technokratie – \ einer kontrollierenden Herrschaft, \ die durch verstümmelte und verstümmelnde Geister ausgeübt wird. \ Ernst Jünger

«Davos ist nicht mehr sexy», das Weltwirtschaftsforum (WEF) mache Davos kaputt, diese Aussagen eines Einheimischen las ich kürzlich in der Handelszeitung. Während sich einige vor Ort enorm an der «teuersten Gewerbeausstellung der Welt» bereicherten, würden die negativen Begleiterscheinungen wie Wohnungsnot und Niedergang der lokalen Wirtschaft immer deutlicher.

Nächsten Montag beginnt in dem Schweizer Bergdorf erneut ein Jahrestreffen dieses elitären Clubs der Konzerne, bei dem man mit hochrangigen Politikern aus aller Welt und ausgewählten Vertretern der Systemmedien zusammenhocken wird. Wie bereits in den vergangenen vier Jahren wird die Präsidentin der EU-Kommission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Begleitung von Klaus Schwab ihre Grundsatzansprache halten.

Der deutsche WEF-Gründer hatte bei dieser Gelegenheit immer höchst lobende Worte für seine Landsmännin: 2021 erklärte er sich «stolz, dass Europa wieder unter Ihrer Führung steht» und 2022 fand er es bemerkenswert, was sie erreicht habe angesichts des «erstaunlichen Wandels», den die Welt in den vorangegangenen zwei Jahren erlebt habe; es gebe nun einen «neuen europäischen Geist».

Von der Leyens Handeln während der sogenannten Corona-«Pandemie» lobte Schwab damals bereits ebenso, wie es diese Woche das Karlspreis-Direktorium tat, als man der Beschuldigten im Fall Pfizergate die diesjährige internationale Auszeichnung «für Verdienste um die europäische Einigung» verlieh. Außerdem habe sie die EU nicht nur gegen den «Aggressor Russland», sondern auch gegen die «innere Bedrohung durch Rassisten und Demagogen» sowie gegen den Klimawandel verteidigt.

Jene Herausforderungen durch «Krisen epochalen Ausmaßes» werden indes aus dem Umfeld des WEF nicht nur herbeigeredet – wie man alljährlich zur Zeit des Davoser Treffens im Global Risks Report nachlesen kann, der zusammen mit dem Versicherungskonzern Zurich erstellt wird. Seit die Globalisten 2020/21 in der Praxis gesehen haben, wie gut eine konzertierte und konsequente Angst-Kampagne funktionieren kann, geht es Schlag auf Schlag. Sie setzen alles daran, Schwabs goldenes Zeitfenster des «Great Reset» zu nutzen.

Ziel dieses «großen Umbruchs» ist die totale Kontrolle der Technokraten über die Menschen unter dem Deckmantel einer globalen Gesundheitsfürsorge. Wie aber könnte man so etwas erreichen? Ein Mittel dazu ist die «kreative Zerstörung». Weitere unabdingbare Werkzeug sind die Einbindung, ja Gleichschaltung der Medien und der Justiz.

Ein «Great Mental Reset» sei die Voraussetzung dafür, dass ein Großteil der Menschen Einschränkungen und Manipulationen wie durch die Corona-Maßnahmen praktisch kritik- und widerstandslos hinnehme, sagt der Mediziner und Molekulargenetiker Michael Nehls. Er meint damit eine regelrechte Umprogrammierung des Gehirns, wodurch nach und nach unsere Individualität und unser soziales Bewusstsein eliminiert und durch unreflektierten Konformismus ersetzt werden.

Der aktuelle Zustand unserer Gesellschaften ist auch für den Schweizer Rechtsanwalt Philipp Kruse alarmierend. Durch den Umgang mit der «Pandemie» sieht er die Grundlagen von Recht und Vernunft erschüttert, die Rechtsstaatlichkeit stehe auf dem Prüfstand. Seiner dringenden Mahnung an alle Bürger, die Prinzipien von Recht und Freiheit zu verteidigen, kann ich mich nur anschließen.

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Dieser Beitrag ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.

@ 2b24a1fa:17750f64

Eine Stunde Klassik! Der Münchner Pianist und "Musikdurchdringer" Jürgen Plich stellt jeden Dienstag um 20 Uhr große klassische Musik vor. Er teilt seine Hör- und Spielerfahrung und seine persönliche Sicht auf die Meisterwerke. Er spielt selbst besondere, unbekannte Aufnahmen, erklärt, warum die Musik so und nicht anders klingt und hat eine Menge aus dem Leben der Komponisten zu erzählen.

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/eine-stunde-klassik-opus-eins?

Sonntags um 10 Uhr in der Wiederholung.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Bitcoin has always been rooted in freedom and resistance to authority. I get that many of you are conflicted about the US Government stacking but by design we cannot stop anyone from using bitcoin. Many have asked me for my thoughts on the matter, so let’s rip it.

Concern

One of the most glaring issues with the strategic bitcoin reserve is its foundation, built on stolen bitcoin. For those of us who value private property this is an obvious betrayal of our core principles. Rather than proof of work, the bitcoin that seeds this reserve has been taken by force. The US Government should return the bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex and the Silk Road.

Using stolen bitcoin for the reserve creates a perverse incentive. If governments see bitcoin as a valuable asset, they will ramp up efforts to confiscate more bitcoin. The precedent is a major concern, and I stand strongly against it, but it should be also noted that governments were already seizing coin before the reserve so this is not really a change in policy.

Ideally all seized bitcoin should be burned, by law. This would align incentives properly and make it less likely for the government to actively increase coin seizures. Due to the truly scarce properties of bitcoin, all burned bitcoin helps existing holders through increased purchasing power regardless. This change would be unlikely but those of us in policy circles should push for it regardless. It would be best case scenario for American bitcoiners and would create a strong foundation for the next century of American leadership.

Optimism

The entire point of bitcoin is that we can spend or save it without permission. That said, it is a massive benefit to not have one of the strongest governments in human history actively trying to ruin our lives.

Since the beginning, bitcoiners have faced horrible regulatory trends. KYC, surveillance, and legal cases have made using bitcoin and building bitcoin businesses incredibly difficult. It is incredibly important to note that over the past year that trend has reversed for the first time in a decade. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a key driver of this shift. By holding bitcoin, the strongest government in the world has signaled that it is not just a fringe technology but rather truly valuable, legitimate, and worth stacking.

This alignment of incentives changes everything. The US Government stacking proves bitcoin’s worth. The resulting purchasing power appreciation helps all of us who are holding coin and as bitcoin succeeds our government receives direct benefit. A beautiful positive feedback loop.

Realism

We are trending in the right direction. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a sign that the state sees bitcoin as an asset worth embracing rather than destroying. That said, there is a lot of work left to be done. We cannot be lulled into complacency, the time to push forward is now, and we cannot take our foot off the gas. We have a seat at the table for the first time ever. Let's make it worth it.

We must protect the right to free usage of bitcoin and other digital technologies. Freedom in the digital age must be taken and defended, through both technical and political avenues. Multiple privacy focused developers are facing long jail sentences for building tools that protect our freedom. These cases are not just legal battles. They are attacks on the soul of bitcoin. We need to rally behind them, fight for their freedom, and ensure the ethos of bitcoin survives this new era of government interest. The strategic reserve is a step in the right direction, but it is up to us to hold the line and shape the future.

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Over the last decade, birth rates in Spain have dropped by 30%, from 486,000 births in 2010 to 339,000 in 2020, a decline only comparable to that seen in Japan and the Four Asian Tigers.

The main cause seems to stem from two major factors: (1) the widespread use of contraceptive methods, which allow for pregnancy control without reducing sexual activity, and (2) women's entry into the labor market, leading to a significant shift away from traditional maternal roles.

In this regard, there is a phenomenon of demographic inertia that I believe could become significant. When a society ages and the population pyramid inverts, the burden this places on the non-dependent population could further contribute to a deeper decline in birth rates.

The more resources (time and money) non-dependent individuals have to dedicate to the elderly (dependents), the less they can allocate to producing new births (also dependents):

• An only child who has to care for both parents will bear a burden of 2 (2 ÷ 1).
• Three siblings who share the responsibility of caring for their parents will bear a burden of 0.6 (2 ÷ 3).

This burden on only children could, in many cases, be significant enough to prevent them from having children of their own.

In Spain, the generation of only children reached reproductive age in 2019(*), this means that right now the majority of people in reproductive age in Spain are only child (or getting very close to it).

If this assumption is correct, and aging feeds on itself, then, given that Spain has one of the worst demographic imbalances in the world, this phenomenon is likely to manifest through worsening birth rates. Spain’s current birth rate of 1.1 may not yet have reached its lowest point.

(*)Birth rate table and the year in which each generation reaches 32 years of age, Spain.

| Year of birth | Birth rate | Year in which the generation turns 32 | | ------------------ | -------------- | ----------------------------------------- | | 1971 | 2.88 | 2003 | | 1972 | 2.85 | 2004 | | 1973 | 2.82 | 2005 | | 1974 | 2.81 | 2006 | | 1975 | 2.77 | 2007 | | 1976 | 2.77 | 2008 | | 1977 | 2.65 | 2009 | | 1978 | 2.54 | 2010 | | 1979 | 2.37 | 2011 | | 1980 | 2.21 | 2012 | | 1981 | 2.04 | 2013 | | 1982 | 1.94 | 2014 | | 1983 | 1.80 | 2015 | | 1984 | 1.72 | 2016 | | 1985 | 1.64 | 2017 | | 1986 | 1.55 | 2018 | | 1987 | 1.49 | 2019 | | 1988 | 1.45 | 2020 | | 1989 | 1.40 | 2021 | | 1990 | 1.36 | 2022 | | 1991 | 1.33 | 2023 | | 1992 | 1.31 | 2024 | | 1993 | 1.26 | 2025 | | 1994 | 1.19 | 2026 | | 1995 | 1.16 | 2027 | | 1996 | 1.14 | 2028 | | 1997 | 1.15 | 2029 | | 1998 | 1.13 | 2030 | | 1999 | 1.16 | 2031 | | 2000 | 1.21 | 2032 | | 2001 | 1.24 | 2033 | | 2002 | 1.25 | 2034 | | 2003 | 1.30 | 2035 | | 2004 | 1.32 | 2036 | | 2005 | 1.33 | 2037 | | 2006 | 1.36 | 2038 | | 2007 | 1.38 | 2039 | | 2008 | 1.44 | 2040 | | 2009 | 1.38 | 2041 | | 2010 | 1.37 | 2042 | | 2011 | 1.34 | 2043 | | 2012 | 1.32 | 2044 | | 2013 | 1.27 | 2045 | | 2014 | 1.32 | 2046 | | 2015 | 1.33 | 2047 | | 2016 | 1.34 | 2048 | | 2017 | 1.31 | 2049 | | 2018 | 1.26 | 2050 | | 2019 | 1.24 | 2051 | | 2020 | 1.19 | 2052 |

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Phasellus erat metus, suscipit et nisi a, dignissim luctus risus\ Nam eleifend aliquet aliquam

Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et

@ c631e267:c2b78d3e

Herzlichen Glückwunsch zum dritten Geburtstag, liebe Denk Bar! Wieso zum dritten? Das war doch 2022 und jetzt sind wir im Jahr 2024, oder? Ja, das ist schon richtig, aber bei Geburtstagen erinnere ich mich immer auch an meinen Vater, und der behauptete oft, der erste sei ja schließlich der Tag der Geburt selber und den müsse man natürlich mitzählen. Wo er recht hat, hat er nunmal recht. Konsequenterweise wird also heute dieser Blog an seinem dritten Geburtstag zwei Jahre alt.

Das ist ein Grund zum Feiern, wie ich finde. Einerseits ganz einfach, weil es dafür gar nicht genug Gründe geben kann. «Das Leben sind zwei Tage», lautet ein gängiger Ausdruck hier in Andalusien. In der Tat könnte es so sein, auch wenn wir uns im Alltag oft genug von der Routine vereinnahmen lassen.

Seit dem Start der Denk Bar vor zwei Jahren ist unglaublich viel passiert. Ebenso wie die zweieinhalb Jahre davor, und all jenes war letztlich auch der Auslöser dafür, dass ich begann, öffentlich zu schreiben. Damals notierte ich:

«Seit einigen Jahren erscheint unser öffentliches Umfeld immer fragwürdiger, widersprüchlicher und manchmal schier unglaublich - jede Menge Anlass für eigene Recherchen und Gedanken, ganz einfach mit einer Portion gesundem Menschenverstand.»

Wir erleben den sogenannten «großen Umbruch», einen globalen Coup, den skrupellose Egoisten clever eingefädelt haben und seit ein paar Jahren knallhart – aber nett verpackt – durchziehen, um buchstäblich alles nach ihrem Gusto umzukrempeln. Die Gelegenheit ist ja angeblich günstig und muss genutzt werden.

Nie hätte ich mir träumen lassen, dass ich so etwas jemals miterleben müsste. Die Bosheit, mit der ganz offensichtlich gegen die eigene Bevölkerung gearbeitet wird, war früher für mich unvorstellbar. Mein (Rest-) Vertrauen in alle möglichen Bereiche wie Politik, Wissenschaft, Justiz, Medien oder Kirche ist praktisch komplett zerstört. Einen «inneren Totalschaden» hatte ich mal für unsere Gesellschaften diagnostiziert.

Was mich vielleicht am meisten erschreckt, ist zum einen das Niveau der Gleichschaltung, das weltweit erreicht werden konnte, und zum anderen die praktisch totale Spaltung der Gesellschaft. Haben wir das tatsächlich mit uns machen lassen?? Unfassbar! Aber das Werkzeug «Angst» ist sehr mächtig und funktioniert bis heute.

Zum Glück passieren auch positive Dinge und neue Perspektiven öffnen sich. Für viele Menschen waren und sind die Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre ein Augenöffner. Sie sehen «Querdenken» als das, was es ist: eine Tugend.

Auch die immer ernsteren Zensurbemühungen sind letztlich nur ein Zeichen der Schwäche, wo Argumente fehlen. Sie werden nicht verhindern, dass wir unsere Meinung äußern, unbequeme Fragen stellen und dass die Wahrheit peu à peu ans Licht kommt. Es gibt immer Mittel und Wege, auch für uns.

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Danke, dass du diesen Weg mit mir weitergehst!

@ c1e6505c:02b3157e

This is day two of testing the Leica Summaron 35mm f2.8 on the Fujifilm X-Pro2.

The first part of this story you can find here on StackerNews**

TL;DR: I think I’m really enjoying this lens.

I went into it thinking I’d probably just sell it since it was gifted to me - assumed I wouldn’t like it. But after just a couple of days with it mounted on the X-Pro2, I’ve been surprisingly drawn to it.

Shooting wide open at f2.8 (which is how I’m testing it - to best reveal the lens’s character), the soft roll-off is really pleasing. It feels organic. The lens is over 50 years old, so I expected some quirks-but the quality feels natural, not overly “vintage". Takes the digital edge off.

The short focus throw is also really nice. Compared to the Summicron 35mm f2 v3 I usually shoot on my M262 (which has a longer throw), the Summaron feels tighter and more responsive when zone focusing.

One gripe: the infinity lock. It’s kind of annoying. I find myself accidentally locking it too often, but I’m getting used to holding the button down as I rotate the ring. I’ve read others complain about it, so I know I’m not alone there.

Most of these shots were from a bike ride to the river - about 6 miles out to swim and enjoy the sun. Perfect day for making a few photos.

This kind of work is honestly just fun. I enjoy the process, and even more so once I’m happy with the results and can share them.

Still building confidence in my work over time. I think I’m slowly refining my style - even if the subject matter is simple. Easier said than done, as any editor/curator knows (and I say this as one through NOICE Magazine).

Let me know what you think. I’ll try to upload higher resolution versions this time around (but not too high).

*Also, I use a program called Dehancer for creating the grain in these photographs. I highly recommend the program actually, I've been using it for a long time. If you would like to try it out, I have a promo code. Use "Pictureroom" for 10% off I believe.

You can further support me and my work by sending sats to colincz\@getalby.com. Thank you.

(note* this is being publised from the updated Primal reads client)

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Recently we have seen a wave of high profile X accounts hacked. These attacks have exposed the fragility of the status quo security model used by modern social media platforms like X. Many users have asked if nostr fixes this, so lets dive in. How do these types of attacks translate into the world of nostr apps? For clarity, I will use X’s security model as representative of most big tech social platforms and compare it to nostr.

The Status Quo

On X, you never have full control of your account. Ultimately to use it requires permission from the company. They can suspend your account or limit your distribution. Theoretically they can even post from your account at will. An X account is tied to an email and password. Users can also opt into two factor authentication, which adds an extra layer of protection, a login code generated by an app. In theory, this setup works well, but it places a heavy burden on users. You need to create a strong, unique password and safeguard it. You also need to ensure your email account and phone number remain secure, as attackers can exploit these to reset your credentials and take over your account. Even if you do everything responsibly, there is another weak link in X infrastructure itself. The platform’s infrastructure allows accounts to be reset through its backend. This could happen maliciously by an employee or through an external attacker who compromises X’s backend. When an account is compromised, the legitimate user often gets locked out, unable to post or regain control without contacting X’s support team. That process can be slow, frustrating, and sometimes fruitless if support denies the request or cannot verify your identity. Often times support will require users to provide identification info in order to regain access, which represents a privacy risk. The centralized nature of X means you are ultimately at the mercy of the company’s systems and staff.

Nostr Requires Responsibility

Nostr flips this model radically. Users do not need permission from a company to access their account, they can generate as many accounts as they want, and cannot be easily censored. The key tradeoff here is that users have to take complete responsibility for their security. Instead of relying on a username, password, and corporate servers, nostr uses a private key as the sole credential for your account. Users generate this key and it is their responsibility to keep it safe. As long as you have your key, you can post. If someone else gets it, they can post too. It is that simple. This design has strong implications. Unlike X, there is no backend reset option. If your key is compromised or lost, there is no customer support to call. In a compromise scenario, both you and the attacker can post from the account simultaneously. Neither can lock the other out, since nostr relays simply accept whatever is signed with a valid key.

The benefit? No reliance on proprietary corporate infrastructure.. The negative? Security rests entirely on how well you protect your key.

Future Nostr Security Improvements

For many users, nostr’s standard security model, storing a private key on a phone with an encrypted cloud backup, will likely be sufficient. It is simple and reasonably secure. That said, nostr’s strength lies in its flexibility as an open protocol. Users will be able to choose between a range of security models, balancing convenience and protection based on need.

One promising option is a web of trust model for key rotation. Imagine pre-selecting a group of trusted friends. If your account is compromised, these people could collectively sign an event announcing the compromise to the network and designate a new key as your legitimate one. Apps could handle this process seamlessly in the background, notifying followers of the switch without much user interaction. This could become a popular choice for average users, but it is not without tradeoffs. It requires trust in your chosen web of trust, which might not suit power users or large organizations. It also has the issue that some apps may not recognize the key rotation properly and followers might get confused about which account is “real.”

For those needing higher security, there is the option of multisig using FROST (Flexible Round-Optimized Schnorr Threshold). In this setup, multiple keys must sign off on every action, including posting and updating a profile. A hacker with just one key could not do anything. This is likely overkill for most users due to complexity and inconvenience, but it could be a game changer for large organizations, companies, and governments. Imagine the White House nostr account requiring signatures from multiple people before a post goes live, that would be much more secure than the status quo big tech model.

Another option are hardware signers, similar to bitcoin hardware wallets. Private keys are kept on secure, offline devices, separate from the internet connected phone or computer you use to broadcast events. This drastically reduces the risk of remote hacks, as private keys never touches the internet. It can be used in combination with multisig setups for extra protection. This setup is much less convenient and probably overkill for most but could be ideal for governments, companies, or other high profile accounts.

---

Nostr’s security model is not perfect but is robust and versatile. Ultimately users are in control and security is their responsibility. Apps will give users multiple options to choose from and users will choose what best fits their need.

@ 86dfbe73:628cef55

Robustheit ist die Eigenschaft eines Systems, auch unter schwierigen Bedingungen funktionieren zu können: trotz Störungen und einer gewissen Verschlechterung seiner internen Prozesse. Das Leben als Ganzes ist robust. Dasselbe gilt für Ökosysteme: Sie können den Verlust einiger Arten überstehen und sich an veränderte Umweltbedingungen anpassen.

Der Hauptfeind der Robustheit ist das Streben nach Effizienz. Ein auf Effizienz optimiertes System hat keine Reserven mehr, sich an Störungen anzupassen. Es wird fragil. Wir optimieren die Gesellschaft und ihre Subsysteme (z. B. Institutionen) seit 5000 Jahren auf Wachstum, Effizienz und Produktivität. Und wir haben das Optimierungstempo mit den beiden Turbo-Boosts fossile Brennstoffe und Informationstechnologie beschleunigt. Deshalb ist alles um uns herum fragil geworden. Beispielsweise kann ein Virusausbruch in China sich zu einer Pandemie entwickeln, weil die Menschen weit und schnell reisen können und müssen.

Robustheit ist nicht absolut und dauerhaft. Ein System kann durch Störungen, die zu gravierend für es sind, fragil werden. Ehemals robuste Ökosysteme wie Regenwälder wurden durch menschliche Ausbeutung fragil. Deregulierung hat sowohl Regierungen als auch die Wirtschaft effizienter gemacht, allerdings zum Preis zunehmender Fragilität. Unternehmen sind mächtiger geworden als viele Staaten, was bedeutet, dass demokratisch gewählte Parlamente und Regierungen nicht mehr die Kontrolle haben. Heute kann eine einzelne Person demokratische Wahlen weltweit manipulieren, indem sie ein soziales Netzwerk kontrolliert. Das ist Fragilität pur.

Wir müssen als Gesellschaft die Effizienz in den Hintergrund rücken und uns mehr auf Robustheit konzentrieren.

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

I dare to claim that the big factor is the absence of an infinite feed design.

Modern social media landscape sucks for a myriad of reasons, but oh boy does the infinite feed take the crapcake. It's not just bad on it's own, it's emblematic of most, if not all other ways social media have deteriorated into an enshitification spiral. Let's see at just three things I hate about it the most.

1) It's addictive: In the race for your attention, every addictive design element helps. But infinite feed is addictive almost by default. Users are expected to pull the figurative lever until they hit a jackpot. Just one more reel, then I'll go to sleep.

2) Autonomy? What's that? You are not the one driving your experience. No. You are just a passenger passively absorbing what the feed feeds you.

3) Echo chambers. The algorithm might be more to blame here, but the infinite feed and it's super-limited exploration options sure don't help. Your feed only goes two ways - into the past and into the comfortable.

And I could go on, and on...

The point it, if the goal of every big tech company is to have us mindlessly and helplessly consume their products, without agency and opposition (and it is $$$), then the infinite feed gets them half-way there.

Let's get rid of it. For the sake of humanity.

Aphantasia [^1] Version: 1.0.2 Alpha

What is Aphantasia?

I like to call it a social network for graph enthusiasts. It's a place where your thoughts live in time and space, interconnected with others and explorable in a graph view.

The code is open-source and you can take a look at it on GitHub. There you can find more information about contributions, API usage and other details related to the software.

There is also an accompanying youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeLOt-45rJM

[^1]: Aphantasia the software is named after aphantasia the condition - see Wikipedia for more information.

https://stacker.news/items/988754

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

The global population has been rising rapidly for the past two centuries when compared to historical trends. Fifty years ago, that trend seemed set to continue, and there was a lot of concern around the issue of overpopulation. But if you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ll know that while the population is still rising, that trend now seems set to reverse this century, and there’s every indication population could decline precipitously over the next two centuries.

Demographics is a field where predictions about the future are much more reliable than in most scientific fields. That’s because future population trends are “baked in” decades in advance. If you want to know how many fifty-year-olds there will be in forty years, all you have to do is count the ten-year-olds today and allow for mortality rates. That maximum was already determined by the number of births ten years ago, and absolutely nothing can change that now. The average person doesn’t think that through when they look at population trends. You hear a lot of “oh we just need to do more of x to help the declining birthrate” without an acknowledgement that future populations in a given cohort are already fixed by the number of births that already occurred.

As you can see, global birthrates have already declined close to the 2.3 replacement level, with some regions ahead of others, but all on the same trajectory with no region moving against the trend. I’m not going to speculate on the reasons for this, or even whether it’s a good or bad thing. Instead I’m going to make some observations about outcomes this trend could cause economically, and why. Like most macro issues, an individual can’t do anything to change the global landscape personally, but knowing what that landscape might look like is essential to avoiding fallout from trends outside your control.

The Resource Pie

Thomas Malthus popularized the concern about overpopulation with his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population. The basic premise of the book was that population could grow and consume all the available resources, leading to mass poverty, starvation, disease, and population collapse. We can say in hindsight that this was incorrect, given that the global population has increased from less than a billion to over eight billion since then, and the apocalypse Malthus predicted hasn’t materialized. Exactly the opposite, in fact. The global standard of living has risen to levels Malthus couldn’t have imagined, much less predicted.

So where did Malthus go wrong? His hypothesis seems reasonable enough, and we do see a similar trend in certain animal populations. The base assumption Malthus got wrong was to assume resources are a finite, limiting factor to the human population. That at some point certain resources would be totally consumed, and that would be it. He treated it like a pie with a lot of slices, but still a finite number, and assumed that if the population kept rising, eventually every slice would be consumed and there would be no pie left for future generations. That turns out to be completely wrong.

Of course, the earth is finite at some abstract level. The number of atoms could theoretically be counted and quantified. But on a practical level, do humans exhaust the earth’s resources? I’d point to an article from Yale Scientific titled Has the Earth Run out of any Natural Resources? To quote,

> However, despite what doomsday predictions may suggest, the Earth has not run out of any resources nor is it likely that it will run out of any in the near future. > > In fact, resources are becoming more abundant. Though this may seem puzzling, it does not mean that the actual quantity of resources in the Earth’s crust is increasing but rather that the amount available for our use is constantly growing due to technological innovations. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the only resource we have exhausted is cryolite, a mineral used in pesticides and aluminum processing. However, that is not to say every bit of it has been mined away; rather, producing it synthetically is much more cost efficient than mining the existing reserves at its current value.

As it happens, we don’t run out of resources. Instead, we become better at finding, extracting, and efficiently utilizing resources, which means that in practical terms resources become more abundant, not less. In other words, the pie grows faster than we can eat it.

So is there any resource that actually limits human potential? I think there is, and history would suggest that resource is human ingenuity and effort. The more people are thinking about and working on a problem, the more solutions we find and build to solve it. That means not only does the pie grow faster than we can eat it, but the more people there are, the faster the pie grows. Of course that assumes everyone eating pie is also working to grow the pie, but that’s a separate issue for now.

Productivity and Division of Labor

Why does having more people lead to more productivity? A big part of it comes down to division of labor and specialization. The best way to get really good at something is to do more of it. In a small community, doing just one thing simply isn’t possible. Everyone has to be somewhat of a generalist in order to survive. But with a larger population, being a specialist becomes possible. In fact, that’s the purpose of money, as I explained here.

nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzp0rve5f6xtu56djkfkkg7ktr5rtfckpun95rgxaa7futy86npx8yqq247t2dvet9q4tsg4qng36lxe6kc4nftayyy89kua2

The more specialized an economy becomes, the more efficient it can be. There are big economies of scale in almost every task or process. So for example, if a single person tried to build a car from scratch, it would be extremely difficult and take a very long time. However, if you have a thousand people building a car, each doing a specific job, they can become very good at doing that specific job and do it much faster. And then you can move that process to a factory, and build machines to do specific jobs, and add even more efficiency.

But that only works if you’re building more than one car. It doesn’t make sense to build a huge factory full of specialized equipment that takes lots of time and effort to design and manufacture, and then only build one car. You need to sell thousands of cars, maybe even millions of cars, to pay off that initial investment. So division of labor and specialization relies on large populations in two different ways. First, you need a large population to have enough people to specialize in each task. But second and just as importantly, you need a large population of buyers for the finished product. You need a big market in order to make mass production economical.

Think of a computer or smartphone. It takes thousands of specialized processes, thousands of complex parts, and millions of people doing specialized jobs to extract the raw materials, process them, and assemble them into a piece of electronic hardware. And electronics are relatively expensive anyway. Imagine how impossible it would be to manufacture electronics economically, if the market demand wasn’t literally in the billions of units.

Stairs Up, Elevator Down

We’ve seen exponential increases in productivity over the past few centuries, resulting in higher living standards even as population exploded. Now, facing the prospect of a drastic trend reversal, what will happen to productivity and living standards? The typical sentiment seems to be “well, there are a lot of people already competing for resources, so if population does decline, that will just reduce the competition and leave a bigger slice of pie for each person, so we’ll all be getting wealthier as a result of population decline.”

This seems reasonable at first glance. Surely dividing the economic pie into fewer slices means a bigger slice for everyone, right? But remember, more specialization and division of labor is what made the pie as big as it is to begin with. And specialization depends on large populations for both the supply of specialized labor, and the demand for finished goods. Can complex supply chains and mass production withstand population reduction intact? I don’t think the answer is clear.

The idea that it will all be okay, and we’ll get wealthier as population falls, is based on some faulty assumptions. It assumes that wealth is basically some fixed inventory of “things” that exist, and it’s all a matter of distribution. That’s typical Marxist thinking, similar to the reasoning behind “tax the rich” and other utopian wealth transfer schemes.

The reality is, wealth is a dynamic concept with strong network effects. For example, a grocery store in a large city can be a valuable asset with a large potential income stream. The same store in a small village with a declining population can be an unprofitable and effectively worthless liability.

Even something as permanent as a house is very susceptible to network effects. If you currently live in an area where housing is scarce and expensive, you might think a declining population would be the perfect solution to high housing costs. However, if you look at a place that’s already facing the beginnings of a population decline, you’ll see it’s not actually that simple. Japan, for example, is already facing an aging and declining population. And sure enough, you can get a house in Japan for free, or basically free. Sounds amazing, right? Not really.

If you check out the reason houses are given away in Japan, you’ll find a depressing reality. Most of the free houses are in rural areas or villages where the population is declining, often to the point that the village becomes uninhabited and abandoned. It’s so bad that in 2018, 13.6% of houses in Japan were vacant. Why do villages become uninhabited? Well, it turns out that a certain population level is necessary to support the services and businesses people need. When the population falls too low, specialized businesses can no longer operated profitably. It’s the exact issue we discussed with division of labor and the need for a high population to provide a market for the specialist to survive. As the local stores, entertainment venues, and businesses close, and skilled tradesmen move away to larger population centers with more customers, living in the village becomes difficult and depressing, if not impossible. So at a certain critical level, a village that’s too isolated will reach a tipping point where everyone leaves as fast as possible. And it turns out that an abandoned house in a remote village or rural area without any nearby services and businesses is worth… nothing. Nobody wants to live there, nobody wants to spend the money to maintain the house, nobody wants to pay the taxes needed to maintain the utilities the town relied on. So they try to give the houses away to anyone who agrees to live there, often without much success.

So on a local level, population might rise gradually over time, but when that process reverses and population declines to a certain level, it can collapse rather quickly from there.

I expect the same incentives to play out on a larger scale as well. Complex supply chains and extreme specialization lead to massive productivity. But there’s also a downside, which is the fragility of the system. Specialization might mean one shop can make all the widgets needed for a specific application, for the whole globe. That’s great while it lasts, but what happens when the owner of that shop retires with his lifetime of knowledge and experience? Will there be someone equally capable ready to fill his shoes? Hopefully… But spread that problem out across the global economy, and cracks start to appear. A specialized part is unavailable. So a machine that relies on that part breaks down and can’t be repaired. So a new machine needs to be built, which is a big expense that drives up costs and prices. And with a falling population, demand goes down. Now businesses are spending more to make fewer items, so they have to raise prices to stay profitable. Now fewer people can afford the item, so demand falls even further. Eventually the business is forced to close, and other industries that relied on the items they produced are crippled. Things become more expensive, or unavailable at any price. Living standards fall. What was a stairway up becomes an elevator down.

Hope, From the Parasite Class?

All that being said, I’m not completely pessimistic about the future. I think the potential for an acceptable outcome exists.

I see two broad groups of people in the economy; producers, and parasites. One thing the increasing productivity has done is made it easier than ever to survive. Food is plentiful globally, the only issues are with distribution. Medical advances save countless lives. Everything is more abundant than ever before. All that has led to a very “soft” economic reality. There’s a lot of non-essential production, which means a lot of wealth can be redistributed to people who contribute nothing, and if it’s done carefully, most people won’t even notice. And that is exactly what has happened, in spades.

There are welfare programs of every type and description, and handouts to people for every reason imaginable. It’s never been easier to survive without lifting a finger. So millions of able-bodied men choose to do just that.

Besides the voluntarily idle, the economy is full of “bullshit jobs.” Shoutout to David Graeber’s book with that title. (It’s an excellent book and one I would highly recommend, even though the author was a Marxist and his conclusions are completely wrong.) A 2015 British poll asked people, “Does your job make a meaningful contribution to the world?” Only 50% said yes, while 37% said no and 13% were uncertain.

This won’t be a surprise to anyone who’s operated a business, or even worked in the private sector in general. There are three types of jobs; jobs that accomplish something productive, jobs that accomplish nothing of value, and jobs that actually hinder people trying to accomplish something productive. The number of jobs in the last two categories has grown massively over the years. This would include a lot of unnecessary administrative jobs, burdensome regulatory jobs, useless DEI and HR jobs, a large percentage of public sector jobs, most of the military-industrial complex, and the list is endless. All these jobs accomplish nothing worthwhile at best, and actively discourage those who are trying to accomplish something at worst.

Even among jobs that do accomplish some useful purpose, the amount of time spent actually doing the job continues to decline. According to a 2016 poll, American office workers spent only 39% of their workday actually doing their primary task. The other 61% was largely wasted on unproductive administrative tasks and meetings, answering emails, and just simply wasting time.

I could go on, but the point is, there’s a lot of slack in the economy. We’ve become so productive that the number of people actually doing the work to keep everyone fed, clothed, and cared for is only a small percentage of the population. In one sense, that’s a cause for optimism. The population could decline a lot, and we’d still have enough bodies to man the economic engine, as it were.

Aging

The thing with population decline, though, is nobody gets to choose who goes first. Not unless you’re a psychopathic dictator. So populations get old, then they get small. This means that the number of dependents in the economy rises naturally. Once people retire, they still need someone to grow the food, keep the lights on, and provide the medical care. And it doesn’t matter how much money the retirees have saved, either. Money is just a claim on wealth. The goods and services actually have to be provided by someone, and if that someone was never born, all the money in the world won’t change anything.

And the aging occurs on top of all the people already taking from the economy without contributing anything of value. So that seems like a big problem.

Currently, wealth redistribution happens through a combination of direct taxes, indirect taxation through deficit spending, and the whole gamut of games that happen when banks create credit/debt money by making loans. In a lot of cases, it’s very indirect and difficult to pin down. For example, someone has a “job” in a government office, enforcing pointless regulations that actually hinder someone in the private sector from producing something useful. Their paycheck comes from the government, so a combination of taxes on productive people, and deficit spending, which is also a tax on productive people. But they “have a job,” so who’s going to question their contribution to society? On the other hand, it could be a banker or hedge fund manager. They might be pulling in a massive salary, but at the core all they’re really doing is finding creative financial ways to transfer wealth from productive people to themselves, without contributing anything of value.

You’ll notice a common theme if you think about this problem deeply. Most of the wealth transfer that supports the unproductive, whether that’s welfare recipients, retirees, bureaucrats, corporate middle managers, or weapons manufacturers, is only possible through expanding the money supply. There’s a limit to how much direct taxation the productive will bear while the option to collect welfare exists. At a certain point, people conclude that working hard every day isn’t worth it, when taxes take so much of their wages that they could make almost as much without working at all. So the balance of what it takes to support the dependent class has to come indirectly, through new money creation.

As long as the declining population happens under the existing monetary system, the future looks bleak. There’s no limit to how much money creation and inflation the parasite class will use in an attempt to avoid work. They’ll continue to suck the productive class dry until the workers give up in disgust, and the currency collapses into hyperinflation. And you can’t run a complex economy without functional money, so productivity inevitably collapses with the currency.

The optimistic view is that we don’t have to continue supporting the failed credit/debt monetary system. It’s hurting productivity, messing up incentives, and contributing to increasing wealth inequality and lower living standards for the middle class. If we walk away from that system and adopt a hard money standard, the possibility of inflationary wealth redistribution vanishes. The welfare and warfare programs have to be slashed. The parasite class is forced to get busy, or starve. In that scenario, the declining population of workers can be offset by a massive shift away from “bullshit jobs” and into actual productive work.

While that might not be a permanent solution to declining population, it would at least give us time to find a real solution, without having our complex economy collapse and send our living standards back to the 17th century.

It’s a complex issue with many possible outcomes, but I think a close look at the effects of the monetary system on productivity shows one obvious problem that will make the situation worse than necessary. Moving to a better monetary system and creating incentives for productivity would do a lot to reduce the economic impacts of a declining population.

@ 21810ca8:f2e8341e

If so, please comment. So I can see if Nostr works for me.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.

Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.

Anti-CBDC legislation

Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.

Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.

Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites

The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.

The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.

The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.

The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.

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Why This Matters and Why You Must Rise

Before we get to the hard truth, you need to see what’s at stake: being a husband, a good husband, is one of the most powerful and rewarding roles a man can earn. A well-chosen wife who loves, trusts, and follows your lead brings daily peace, sexual loyalty, emotional steadiness, and generational purpose. She raises your children with respect, protects your name with dignity, and makes your home a fortress of peace, joy and legacy.

But that kind of marriage isn’t given. It’s not random. It must be cultivated. Every couple has the potential to build it, but most don’t know how. Some are emotionally or mentally blocked, and a rare few are so self-destructive or disordered that they don’t want peace at all. If you commit to growth, you avoid becoming that third group. Your habits, discipline, leadership, clarity, and standards will determine the kind of women you attract, and the kind you choose.

Now, the hard truth: most men today are not mature enough to lead a family. Not because of fate, but because they have not been forged into full adulthood. Our culture has abandoned the process of training boys into husbands and fathers. We are surrounded by “males”, men who are adult aged but lacking in masculine maturity. You want to be forged into the kind of man capable of bearing the responsibilities that make marriage work, and make life worth living.

You’ve probably been told one of three lies. First, that you should just be yourself and wait for the right woman to magically appear. Second, that it’s hopeless, that modern women are broken and you’ll never succeed. Third, that the only way to win is to become a manipulator or a predator. All three are lies. And all three will ruin you.

Marriage is an institution that rests on male responsibility. Now is not the time to indulge in unrestrained feelings. This is the time to think logically, act decisively, and get your foundations right. The emotions will come, joy, love, pride, but only after the structure is sound. This audit isn’t romantic. It’s not poetic. It’s not meant to flatter you. It’s meant to demand excellence.

Because the stakes are civilization.

For most of human history, men weren’t asked to find themselves, they were trained, tested, and proven by their clan. Their worth wasn’t debated, it was demonstrated in actions. Marriage wasn’t a reward; it was an assignment earned by utility, discipline, and loyalty. Today, you must choose to forge yourself or be disqualified by default.

This document is hard. That’s intentional. If it offends you, that’s a sign you need it. It is your blueprint, not your affirmation. Read it like your life depends on it, because it does. Your future wife depends on it. Your children depend on it. Your legacy does too.

Every man is born male. Few become men. Fewer still become husbands. If you are to lead, protect, and provide, this is your starting line.

Natural Law Audit and Prescriptive Protocol for Male Readiness for Marriage-Intentional Courtship

Meta-Readiness Considerations

I. Vision of Legacy and Life Direction

A man cannot lead a family without first knowing where he is going. Before evaluating readiness for courtship, you must clarify your vision. What kind of life are you building? What do you want your marriage, children, household, and legacy to look like in five, ten, twenty years? This is not optional. A man without vision drifts, and drifting men destroy women and children.

Ask: Do you want a traditional household? Homeschooling? A career-driven wife or a homemaker? City life or rural homesteading? What is your stance on faith, education, conflict, discipline, and family governance? If you do not define these things in advance, you will be disqualified by women who have.

Your first step is to write it down. This vision is aspirational, it doesn’t need to be perfect, and it will evolve over time. But it must exist to anchor your habits, guide your structure, and align your strategic direction. Without it, you will have no consistent way to measure whether your decisions are moving you toward or away from your goals. Most importantly, this vision will help you evaluate whether a particular woman will support or undermine that trajectory. Put it into a concrete, measurable format. If it is not written, it is not real.

II. Male Hierarchy and Accountability Integration

Men are made in conflict, tested by other men, and refined in a hierarchy. If you do not belong to a tribe of strong men who correct, challenge, and demand your best, you are already failing. Self-improvement in isolation is a delusion. No man rises without pressure.

You need brothers, mentors, uncles, tradesmen, or elders, men who will hold you accountable to your standards, correct your pride, and force you to grow. Whether in a martial arts gym, a church men’s group, a builder’s crew, or a military brotherhood, you must place yourself under male scrutiny. That is where respect is forged.

If you are alone, this is your mission: find a circle or build one. Without this, you will drift, decay, or submit to weaker men’s values.

I. PHYSICAL HEALTH AND APPEARANCE

Functional Purpose: Your body is your first signal, your first point of communication. It tells the world whether you are disciplined, dangerous, and reliable, or soft, passive, and avoidant. Strength, grooming, posture, and composure signal not vanity, but command. A man who cannot govern his flesh will not be trusted to govern anything else.

Operational Criteria:

• Body Composition: Visible musculature, BMI 18.5–24.9.

• Posture: Upright, shoulders back, slow and intentional gait.

• Grooming: Clean, orderly hair, skin, nails, facial hair.

• Eye Contact: Calm, unwavering, non-threatening.

Disqualifiers:

• Obesity, sloppiness, foul odor, nervous ticks, posture collapse, dressing like a child.

Remediation Steps:

• Lift weights 3–5x/week.

• Establish daily grooming habits.

• Practice mirror walk, facial relaxation, and neutral posture.

• Buy and wear tailored, timeless outfits like suits or smart-casual attire, chosen for the setting, with high-quality fabrics and subtle styles to convey confidence and earn respect.

Rationale:

Your physical presentation is your first form of leadership. It signals self-respect, readiness, and capacity to protect and provide. Women and other men alike assess you visually before you speak. Neglect in this area marks you as unserious. Strength invites trust.

II. PSYCHOLOGICAL AND EMOTIONAL STABILITY

Functional Purpose: Your mood must not lead you. True emotional maturity means your emotions do not control you, but it does not mean you are numb or unavailable. You must be able to feel deeply, express emotion appropriately, and demonstrate openness to connection. Emotional repression is not strength; it is often a sign of fear. Women bond with men who are strong and warm, who are not ruled by emotion, but are not strangers to it either. Emotional regulation, agency, and stoic self-control are prerequisites for the burden of leadership. Women and children depend on consistency. If you break under pressure, they suffer.

Operational Criteria:

• Plans and acts for the long-term.

• Resolves conflict with clarity.

• Absence of rage, sulking, or passive aggression.

• Maintains emotionally intimate, trusting relationships with at least one or more close friends or family members.

Disqualifiers:

• Addictions, trauma reenactment, erratic emotional swings (crashing out).

Remediation Steps:

• Daily journaling + therapy/coaching if unresolved wounds exist.

• Breathwork, cold exposure, hardship-seeking routines.

• Audit social circle for drama dependency.

• Identify self-sabotaging emotional patterns, e.g., withdrawing from intimacy, ending friendships that grow too close, or mistaking openness for weakness, and interrupt them with intentional response strategies.

Rationale:

A man who cannot regulate his emotions becomes a source of instability rather than leadership. Emotional maturity is not the absence of feeling, but the control of it. It makes you trustworthy in crisis, durable in conflict, and clear in vision.

III. ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY AND PROVISIONING CAPACITY

Functional Purpose: You are not entitled to love without means. Provisioning is a male responsibility. If you cannot provide, you are not a suitor, you are a dependent. This has always been the ancient challenge of young men, how to grow into a provider before they are chosen. At 18, most men will fail this test, not because they are doomed, but because they are just beginning. Your job is to mature into the man who passes it.

Operational Criteria:

• Income: 1.3x local median female income minimum.

• Budgeting: Monthly audit of all spending.

• Savings/Insurance: 6+ months living expenses.

Disqualifiers:

• Irregular employment, credit card debt, no savings plan.

Remediation Steps:

• Obtain or increase income-producing skills.

• Build an emergency fund over 90 days.

• Eliminate high-interest debt.

• Join or form a male career network or professional brotherhood where members support and promote one another’s advancement, most trades and professions have them, and they multiply your rate of progress.

Rationale: Provisioning is the single clearest historical threshold of male maturity. A man who cannot sustain a household cannot form one. Women are instinctively attuned to this. Stability signals trustworthiness. Without it, love decays under the weight of unmet needs.

IV. LEADERSHIP, DECISION-MAKING, AND MORAL AUTHORITY

Functional Purpose: You are not equal in responsibility, you are higher. This means you carry the weight of consequence. She must feel safer with you in charge. Your leadership must be principled, not domineering.

Operational Criteria:

• Makes and owns decisions in all aspects of life.

• Asserts and maintains healthy boundaries.

• Arbitrates disputes without escalation.

• Knows how to say "no" to others including women.

Disqualifiers:

• People pleasing under pressure, indecisiveness, abdication of duty.

Remediation Steps:

• Practice “decision drills” daily.

• Create weekly leadership practice (mentoring, facilitating).

• Study natural hierarchy and enforcement principles.

Rationale: Leadership is not a “style”, it is a skill set. A man who cannot make decisions cannot command trust. Marriage is a high-stakes enterprise, and indecision breeds confusion and conflict. Clarity is love and care. Direction is protection.

V. SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COURTSHIP COMPETENCE

Functional Purpose: You must lead. In courtship, that means planning, initiating, and maintaining your frame. Women test men for stability, assertiveness, and charisma. If you fail to calibrate, you fail to court.

Operational Criteria:

• Initiates interactions and follows through.

• Demonstrates empathetic intuition by interpreting emotional tone and needs through observation, body language, tone, patterns, rather than repeatedly asking "are you okay?"; this shows leadership, sensitivity, and awareness without neediness.

• Leads with clarity about relationship direction; a woman should never have to ask where she stands or where the relationship is going, his intent should be visible in word and action.

• Calibrates tone, timing, and intent.

• Leads logistics without seeking approval.

Disqualifiers:

• Creeping, over-sharing, chasing, excessive self-disclosure.

Remediation Steps:

• Social reps 3x/week with feedback: initiate conversations with strangers or acquaintances in real-world settings to practice confident, calibrated interaction. Use feedback from trusted peers or self-review to refine tone, timing, and engagement style.

• Practice escalation and withdrawal cycles in a calibrated, non-manipulative way: offer warmth and connection, then step back slightly to test reciprocity—not to punish or confuse, but to observe sincerity and emotional maturity. This is about leadership, not control.

• Study polarity dynamics and frame control.

Rationale:

Social calibration is not optional. Women are constantly reading your tone, timing, and presence. If you cannot initiate, maintain, and lead relational dynamics with competence, you will lose respect and attraction, even if your other credentials are in place.

VI. RISK DISCIPLINE AND REPUTATION MANAGEMENT

Functional Purpose: Your record is your resume. Reputation is slow-built and quickly lost. No woman with future orientation will follow a man whose past screams instability.

Operational Criteria:

• Clean digital, legal, and financial history.

• No active liabilities: drugs, debts, demons, or interfering exes.

Disqualifiers:

• Public drama, digital recklessness, chaos in your orbit.

Remediation Steps:

• 90-day discipline detox (no substance, no vice).

• Drop unstable, low value people from your orbit. Block them out.

• Clean online presence: don’t delete your social media, just remove the parts you wouldn’t want your grandmother, your future wife, or your children to see.

• Seek testimony from high-integrity peers.

Rationale: Your reputation precedes you. Women will not tell you when they've disqualified you, they will simply disappear. A man who cannot manage his habits or his history is seen as unstable. Stability earns trust. Reputation is leverage. One of the best ways to earn such a reputation is to volunteer with a respected organization. That could be your church, a local charity, or a civic or political group. It gives you a structure where you’re immediately adding value, integrated into a hierarchy, and being seen over time, a strategic investment in your public character and future social capital.

VII. ATTITUDE, WORLDVIEW, AND LONG-TERM STRATEGY

Functional Purpose: A man’s compass must point beyond his own gratification. Your worldview must align with duty, honor, and legacy. Hedonism, blackpilled cynicism, and false egalitarianism destroy your mission.

Operational Criteria:

• Sees family as duty, as a sacred honor, and as legacy-building project for his future.

• Orients decisions to long-term outcomes.

• Lives by principle, not trend.

Disqualifiers:

• Victimhood, escapism, prideful detachment.

Remediation Steps:

• Write a 5-year legacy map.

• Study Natural Law, masculine ethics, family economics.

• Form alliances with principled men.

• Audit your social media presence: are your posts expressions of agency, ownership, and action, or are they dominated by complaints, victimhood, or bitterness? This includes your reaction to this document.

Rationale: A man’s worldview is his compass. Without purpose beyond pleasure, he is easily swayed, easily trapped, and easily forgotten. Women do not trust men who float. They trust men who build, and who stay building. Are you responding with responsibility and a will to grow, or with defensiveness, sarcasm, or resentment? Your instinctive reaction reveals which trajectory you're on: the heroic or the defeated.

VIII. Courtship Entry and Partner Evaluation Protocol

Functional Purpose: Courtship is not casual. It is pre-contractual. A man must approach it with the same precision, discipline, and foresight he would apply to any high-stakes investment. A woman is not an accessory, she is a multiplier or destroyer of your legacy. Therefore, a man must evaluate with clarity, not lust; with long-term reciprocity in mind, not momentary gratification. She will vet you, so you must vet her.

Operational Guidelines:

• Precondition: Do not enter courtship unless your provisioning, leadership, and vision are demonstrably in place.

• Intentional Initiation: State your interest clearly. Do not flirt without purpose.

• Staged Testing: Observe her behavior in different settings (stress, boredom, family, social).

• Track Record Review: Know her history, relationship, sexual, emotional, legal. People do not change patterns without great effort or external force.

• Frame Integrity: Maintain leadership, emotional control, and escalation pacing.

Disqualifiers in Women:

• History of promiscuity, masculine affect, open contempt for male authority, or unstable social bonds.

• Signs of status-seeking over loyalty.

• Defensiveness against vetting, resistance to transparency is a red flag.

Remediation Steps for Men:

• Create a written checklist of values, standards, and red flags.

• Practice controlled emotional investment: do not fall in love before facts.

• Involve elder men or mentors in evaluating serious candidates.

Rationale: Your family is your most important project. Do not let your hormones sabotage your legacy. The discipline you apply here will determine the quality of your life 10, 20, even 40 years from now. Vet her like your children depend on it, because they will.

Common Objections and Necessary Corrections

“Women should accept me as I am.” That is not how selection works. You are not a product of sentiment, you are a man under judgment. And you will be judged. If you won’t improve, you are asking a woman to accept less so you can offer less. That’s not love, it’s laziness.

“This is outdated or too harsh.” Reality is not dated. The consequences of fatherlessness, broken homes, and unled women are timeless. What’s harsh is a man failing his family because he thought modernity made him exempt from responsibility.

“I know men who got married without doing all this.” Yes. And many of them are divorced, disrespected, or miserable. The bar is low. You are here to rise above it. The goal is not to ‘get married’, it is to build a durable, high-trust household.

“Women today are the real problem.” That may be partly true. But you are the variable you control. Let weak men complain. Strong men adapt, improve, and filter. If you are not rising above the noise, you are being drowned by it.

“This feels autistic or robotic.” It’s supposed to be procedural. That’s what makes it reliable. Emotion has its place, in protection, in passion, in pride, but your vetting process must be strategic. That’s not autism, it’s wisdom.

“Good men don’t need to judge women like this.” Wrong. Good men judge quietly but thoroughly. They know that marrying wrong will cost them their peace, their children, their mission. Judgment is not cruelty, it’s care.

“I don’t want to put in this much work.” Then don’t. But understand, you have chosen disqualification. The work is the entry fee. Excellence is rare for a reason. You are either one of the few who rise or one of the many who wish.

“Women today just aren’t worth marrying.” Not the women you can currently attract. If you’re only meeting low-quality women, you’re probably at their level. If you want to meet better women, you must become a better man.

“As long as the marriage laws are the way they are, it’s not worth it.” Marriage laws only come into play if you fail and get divorced. This process exists to help you avoid divorce. Stay out of court by vetting properly and building wisely.

“Tell me exactly what men get out of marriage in 2025.” Peace. Legacy. Daily affection. Loyalty. Children. A fortified home. Someone to multiply your effort and love. It’s what strong men throughout history have always wanted, and built.

“There aren’t enough good women left.” There are nearly equal numbers of men and women who qualify. It only feels unbalanced when you're not in the right networks or vetting properly. The solution isn’t despair, it’s improvement.

“50% of men will never be attractive to women.” Only if they stay in the bottom 50%. Normally men cycle in and out of the bottom 50%. That has always been true. The solution isn’t resignation, it’s advancement. Do the work in this audit, and you’ll be in the top 25%. Men who say this as an excuse are signaling their own stagnation. Focus on becoming the best version of yourself, not complaining.

Final Word: You’ve Got Work to Do

If you’ve read this far, you’ve already demonstrated what most men won’t: attention, endurance, and a willingness to face the truth. That alone separates you from the crowd.

If this document exposed your failures, good. That means you’re not too far gone. That means you still have a shot. It means you can recognize where to improve.

You don’t get a wife. You earn the trust to lead one. You don’t deserve a good woman, you build the capacity to attract and retain one.

Read this again. Make a plan. Audit weekly. Ask older and more successful men for correction. Get uncomfortable and get to work.

The future doesn’t need more weak men. It needs you at your best, mature, restored, resolute, and ready.

You’re not just choosing a woman. You’re choosing to become the man who will lead a household.

Make yourself a man who cannot be overlooked.

Your future begins now.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

In much of the world, it is incredibly difficult to access U.S. dollars. Local currencies are often poorly managed and riddled with corruption. Billions of people demand a more reliable alternative. While the dollar has its own issues of corruption and mismanagement, it is widely regarded as superior to the fiat currencies it competes with globally. As a result, Tether has found massive success providing low cost, low friction access to dollars. Tether claims 400 million total users, is on track to add 200 million more this year, processes 8.1 million transactions daily, and facilitates $29 billion in daily transfers. Furthermore, their estimates suggest nearly 40% of users rely on it as a savings tool rather than just a transactional currency.

Tether’s rise has made the company a financial juggernaut. Last year alone, Tether raked in over $13 billion in profit, with a lean team of less than 100 employees. Their business model is elegantly simple: hold U.S. Treasuries and collect the interest. With over $113 billion in Treasuries, Tether has turned a straightforward concept into a profit machine.

Tether’s success has resulted in many competitors eager to claim a piece of the pie. This has triggered a massive venture capital grift cycle in USD tokens, with countless projects vying to dethrone Tether. Due to Tether’s entrenched network effect, these challengers face an uphill battle with little realistic chance of success. Most educated participants in the space likely recognize this reality but seem content to perpetuate the grift, hoping to cash out by dumping their equity positions on unsuspecting buyers before they realize the reality of the situation.

Historically, Tether’s greatest vulnerability has been U.S. government intervention. For over a decade, the company operated offshore with few allies in the U.S. establishment, making it a major target for regulatory action. That dynamic has shifted recently and Tether has seized the opportunity. By actively courting U.S. government support, Tether has fortified their position. This strategic move will likely cement their status as the dominant USD token for years to come.

While undeniably a great tool for the millions of users that rely on it, Tether is not without flaws. As a centralized, trusted third party, it holds the power to freeze or seize funds at its discretion. Corporate mismanagement or deliberate malpractice could also lead to massive losses at scale. In their goal of mitigating regulatory risk, Tether has deepened ties with law enforcement, mirroring some of the concerns of potential central bank digital currencies. In practice, Tether operates as a corporate CBDC alternative, collaborating with authorities to surveil and seize funds. The company proudly touts partnerships with leading surveillance firms and its own data reveals cooperation in over 1,000 law enforcement cases, with more than $2.5 billion in funds frozen.

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The global demand for Tether is undeniable and the company’s profitability reflects its unrivaled success. Tether is owned and operated by bitcoiners and will likely continue to push forward strategic goals that help the movement as a whole. Recent efforts to mitigate the threat of U.S. government enforcement will likely solidify their network effect and stifle meaningful adoption of rival USD tokens or CBDCs. Yet, for all their achievements, Tether is simply a worse form of money than bitcoin. Tether requires trust in a centralized entity, while bitcoin can be saved or spent without permission. Furthermore, Tether is tied to the value of the US Dollar which is designed to lose purchasing power over time, while bitcoin, as a truly scarce asset, is designed to increase in purchasing power with adoption. As people awaken to the risks of Tether’s control, and the benefits bitcoin provides, bitcoin adoption will likely surpass it.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

The Bitcoin price action since the US presidential election, and particularly today, November 11, has given me an excuse to revisit an idea I’ve written about before. I explained here that money doesn’t “flow into” assets, and that the terminology makes it difficult for people to understand how prices actually work.

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The Bitcoin market this year has been a perfect illustration of the points I tried to make, which offers another angle to explain the concept.

Back in January, the first spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched for trading in the US market. This was heralded as a great thing for the Bitcoin price, and tracking “inflows” into these ETFs became a top priority for Bitcoin market analysts. The expectation of course was that more Bitcoin purchased by these ETFs would result in higher prices for the asset.

And sure enough, over the first two months of trading, from mid-January to mid-March, the combined “inflows” to the ETFs totaled around $11 billion. Over the same time frame, the Bitcoin price rose almost 60%, from around $43,000 to $68,000. As should be expected, right?

But then, over the next seven and a half months, from mid-March to early November, the ETFs saw another $11 billion in “inflows”. The Bitcoin price in mid-March? $68,000. In early November? All the way up to… $68,000. Seven and a half months of treading water.

So how can that be? How can $11 billion dollars flowing into an asset cause a 60% price rise once, and no price change at all the next time?

If you read my previous article linked above, you’ll see that the whole idea of money “flowing into” an asset is incorrect and misleading, and this is a perfect illustration why. If you step back a bit, you’ll see the folly of that mentality. So when the ETFs buy $11 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin, where does it come from? They obviously have to buy it from someone. As always, every transaction has a buyer and a seller. In this case, the sellers are current Bitcoin holders selling through OTC desks on the spot market.

So why focus on the ETF buying rather than the Bitcoin holder selling? Instead of saying there were $11 billion in inflows to the Bitcoin ETFs, why not say there were $11 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin holders? It’s just as valid either way.

To take it a step further, many analysts were consistently confused all summer as Bitcoin ETFs continued to see “inflows” on days that the Bitcoin price stayed flat or even fell. So let’s imagine two consecutive days of $300 million daily “inflows” into the ETFs. The first day, the Bitcoin price rises 3%. The second day, the Bitcoin price falls 3%. The first day, headlines can read Bitcoin Price Rises 3% as ETFs See $300m in Inflows. The second day, headlines can read Bitcoin Price Falls 3% as Spot Bitcoin Holders See $300m in Outflows.

See the silliness of this whole idea? Money flows aren’t the cause of price movement. They’re a fake metric used as a post hoc justification for price moves by people who want you to believe they understand markets better than you.

Moving on to today, as I write this on the evening of November 11, Bitcoin is up 30% from $68,000 to $88,000 in the week since the November 5 election. It rose from $69,000 to $75,000 on election night alone, after US markets had closed and while there were no ETF “inflows” at all. In fact, the ETFs saw over a hundred million dollars in outflows on November 5, followed by an 8% single day price increase.

So if money flows don’t move price, what does?

Investor sentiment, that’s what.

Talking about money flows at all, as illustrated by the Bitcoin ETFs, requires arbitrarily dividing a single market into different segments to disguise the fact that every transaction has both a buyer and a seller, so every transaction has an equal dollar amount of “flows” in both directions. In actuality, price is set by a convergence between the highest price any potential buyer is willing to pay, and the lowest price any potential seller is willing to accept. And that number can change without a single transaction occurring, and without a single dollar “flowing” anywhere.

If every Bitcoin holder simultaneously decided tonight that the lowest price they’re willing to accept is $200,000 per Bitcoin, and a single potential buyer decided to buy a single dollar worth of Bitcoin at that price, that would be the new Bitcoin price tomorrow morning. No ETF “inflows” or institutional buying pressure or short squeezes or liquidations required, or any of the other excuses market analysts use to confuse normal people and make it seem like they have some deep esoteric insight into the workings of markets and future price action.

Don’t overcomplicate something as simple as price. If holders of an asset demand higher prices and potential buyers are willing to pay it, prices rise. If potential buyers of an asset offer lower prices and holders are willing to sell, prices fall. The constant interplay between all those individual investors sentiments is what forms a market and a price. The transferring of money between buyers and sellers is an effect of price, not a cause.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

Bullshit Jobs, for those unfamiliar, is the title of a 2018 book by anthropologist David Graeber. It’s well worth a read just for the fascinating research and the engaging writing style. The premise of the book is that many people work in jobs that contribute nothing to society, and would not be missed if they suddenly vanished overnight.

The data backs this up. In a 2015 British poll that asked “does your job make a meaningful contribution to the world?”, 37 percent of people said no, and another 13 percent weren’t sure. That’s fully half the population who can’t confidently say their job is even worth doing. And other polls have found similar or worse results.

The book was inspired by the overwhelming response to a 2013 article Graeber wrote titled On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs: A Work Rant. The point I’d like to address is found here.

Over the course of the last century, the number of workers employed as domestic servants, in industry, and in the farm sector has collapsed dramatically. At the same time, ‘professional, managerial, clerical, sales, and service workers’ tripled, growing ‘from one-quarter to three-quarters of total employment.’ In other words, productive jobs have, just as predicted, been largely automated away (even if you count industrial workers globally, including the toiling masses in India and China, such workers are still not nearly so large a percentage of the world population as they used to be.)

But rather than allowing a massive reduction of working hours to free the world’s population to pursue their own projects, pleasures, visions, and ideas, we have seen the ballooning of not even so much of the ‘service’ sector as of the administrative sector, up to and including the creation of whole new industries like financial services or telemarketing, or the unprecedented expansion of sectors like corporate law, academic and health administration, human resources, and public relations.

These are what I propose to call ‘bullshit jobs’.

It’s as if someone were out there making up pointless jobs just for the sake of keeping us all working. And here, precisely, lies the mystery. In capitalism, this is precisely what is not supposed to happen. Sure, in the old inefficient socialist states like the Soviet Union, where employment was considered both a right and a sacred duty, the system made up as many jobs as they had to (this is why in Soviet department stores it took three clerks to sell a piece of meat). But, of course, this is the sort of very problem market competition is supposed to fix. According to economic theory, at least, the last thing a profit-seeking firm is going to do is shell out money to workers they don’t really need to employ. Still, somehow, it happens.

While corporations may engage in ruthless downsizing, the layoffs and speed-ups invariably fall on that class of people who are actually making, moving, fixing and maintaining things; through some strange alchemy no one can quite explain, the number of salaried paper-pushers ultimately seems to expand, and more and more employees find themselves, not unlike Soviet workers actually, working 40 or even 50 hour weeks on paper, but effectively working 15 hours just as Keynes predicted, since the rest of their time is spent organizing or attending motivational seminars, updating their facebook profiles or downloading TV box-sets.

The answer clearly isn’t economic: it’s moral and political.

In the book, Graeber expands on this idea with a very entertaining description of the many flavors of bullshit jobs, based on anecdotes from readers of his article. He follows that up with theories speculating on the cause of this situation. And wraps it all up with the conclusion that basically capitalists are all big meanies and invent bullshit jobs just to torture people and prevent the arrival of the Marxist utopia where no one has to do much real work and we all sit around and sing kumbaya and discuss philosophy. That’s too harsh a criticism of a very well researched and written book, but I have to confess I was sorely disappointed the first time I read it by the author’s failure to even entertain what seems like the obvious alternative explanation.

Graeber acknowledges in the book that it’s not surprising bullshit jobs exist inside government, although he doesn’t focus strongly enough on why that is. Like he does in the article, he tries to brush it off with the excuse that the same problem exists in the private sector. As he acknowledges, this isn’t supposed to happen in capitalism. He realizes that it makes no logical economic sense for a profit-seeking firm to hire workers to do nothing productive.

But then he follows that acknowledgement with the claim that “The answer clearly isn’t economic: it’s moral and political.” I’m sorry, what? How is that clear? How do you go from stating an obvious economic fact, to denying that the problem is economic, and call it “clear”.

“Still, somehow, it happens,” is not anywhere close to a sufficient explanation to rule out an economic factor.

The economic explanation

First, some definitions.

Capitalism is defined as “an economic system in which the means of production and distribution are privately or corporately owned and development occurs through the accumulation and reinvestment of profits gained in a free market.”

A free market is “an economic system in which prices are based on competition among private businesses and are not controlled or regulated by a government: a market operating by free competition.”

Now that we made sure we’re talking about the same thing, we can analyze this issue logically.

Capitalism and free markets work through competition for customers. It’s an economic law that a customer won’t pay more for the same good or service when they could pay less. Someone can try to make obscure and esoteric objections and force me to emphasize the word “same” and analyze what the good or service being purchased actually is, but everyone else understands this intuitively. So if two companies are offering the same product for sale, all things being equal, the company offering lower prices will attract the customers. Pretty simple stuff.

Of course, the goal for the company is to generate profits. It’s literally in the definition of the word “capitalism”. So any system in which companies have a goal other than generating profits is, by definition, not capitalism.

A company can increase its profits two ways: raising prices, or lowering costs. We don’t have to get too philosophical to realize that if a company is paying someone to do nothing, the company could increase profits by firing that person and lowering their costs of production.

So the question is, why don’t they? Why do they hire people who increase their costs and lower their profits, thereby making them less competitive? And more importantly, if they do make that mistake, why don’t their competitors undercut their prices and take all the customers and bankrupt them?

I don’t think we can dismiss the economic factor as off-handedly as Graeber does. After all, making a profit is the fundamental, definitional purpose of a business or company in a capitalist economy. To say “companies in this capitalist economy are doing something completely antithetical to the very principles and definition of capitalism, so obviously they’re not doing it for economic reasons” is something of a non sequitur.

The conclusion, to me, seems obvious. We don’t have a capitalist economy. As far as I can tell, that’s true by definition. If companies aren’t even trying to achieve the goal companies must achieve to survive in a capitalist economy, and somehow they’re still surviving, that’s proof of the non-capitalist nature of the economy.

Which part of the capitalist system are we missing?

Well, let’s start with the obvious: there’s a lot of government in our economy. The government isn’t privately owned, which makes it not capitalist by definition. So any part of the economy that’s government is not capitalist.

Why is government not capitalist? Because government is not motivated to provide goods and services at a profit. Why not? Because government does not sell goods and services into a free market. Government gives away goods and services to its “customers” for free, because they’re paid for by people other than the consumers of the service. That payment comes in one of two ways: taxes, and debt. It’s not a voluntary transaction.

Which part of the capitalist system might private companies be missing?

They could be lacking competition. That is, operating a monopoly or cartel. If there’s no competing business to provide goods at lower prices, the company could hire people for useless jobs and compensate by raising prices. This places them outside the definition of capitalism, since “free competition” is part of the definition of a free market. Monopolies and cartels often develop and survive through protection by the government, which emphasizes their un-capitalistic nature.

They could be in a temporary situation where the people making the management decisions are sufficiently insulated from the market forces at play that their poor decisions can persist for a while. Many companies begin to lose their competitive edge at some point, after getting big enough to have economic inertia and for the management to be less accountable for business performance. If a company has grown big enough, they can start making poor financial decisions and absorb the lost profits, sometimes for years, before losing their market share to a smaller, more competitive rival. This isn’t really an absence of capitalism, just the natural creative destruction necessary for capitalism to function. The problem comes when a company that’s obviously uncompetitive is prevented from failing through un-capitalistic means. Maybe they’re big enough and wealthy enough to pressure the government into granting them monopoly status. This doesn’t have to be open, it’s often through creating such an impenetrable legal morass around the industry that no competitor can emerge. Or it can be in the form of a “too big to fail” direct government bailout.

The company could also be lacking that essential link between customer satisfaction and business income. In other words, maybe they aren’t selling to their customers. That can happen for various reasons.

Some companies are “private companies” but sell to the government. The government is not a customer in the capitalist sense, because the government spends money taken coercively from its subjects, not money earned voluntarily in the free market. So any company like Raytheon or Boeing that survives off government contracts can’t be accurately called a capitalist organization.

In an industry like healthcare, where the insurance companies are the middlemen in basically all transactions between patients and doctors, there are also lots of ways for bullshit jobs to proliferate. Patients don’t care how much a procedure costs, just that it helps them. Doctors don’t care how much a procedure costs, just that the insurance company will pay for it. And insurance companies don’t care whether a procedure helps the patient, they just want to collect as many premiums as possible while paying out as little for care as possible. The fact that the patient isn’t paying the doctor for their care breaks the necessary link between customer and producer that’s essential for a free market to function. That combines with the regulatory moat and cartel-like structure of the healthcare industry to prevent the competitive function of capitalism from occurring.

Companies could also be surviving off of money from someone other than their customers: bankers and investors. There’s obviously a role in a capitalist system for investors to support a new venture until it’s able to attract customers and establish a stable and profitable business model. But many companies today exist for much longer than economically reasonable without turning a profit. In the US, almost 2,000 of the 5,000 publicly traded companies with data available were classified as “zombie companies”, meaning they don’t even make enough profit to pay the interest on their debt. So they’re going deeper in the hole every year. How can this continue?

Well, the alternative to paying off your debt, is to borrow even more money to make payments on the debt you already owe. If this sounds similar to how the US government survives, then you’re beginning to get the picture.

How can banks keep loaning money to unprofitable businesses? And why would they do it? It doesn’t make sense… until you understand how banking works.

That’s really the core focus of most of my writing, and I’ve written multiple articles on money and banking explaining how the system works as I understand it. This would be a good one focused on banking specifically.

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To very briefly recap, banks don’t make loans by taking in money from depositors and loaning that money to borrowers. Instead, banks create new money that never existed before out of thin air and loan that new money to borrowers. Banks make a profit by charging borrowers interest on this newly created money, which costs them nothing to create. A pretty cushy gig, if you can get it.

So from the perspective of the banks, the more loans and debt outstanding, the better. Every dollar of debt is a dollar they can collect interest on. It cost them nothing to create, so the more, the merrier. In fact, the banks would prefer that the loan principle never be repaid, because once it’s repaid, they can no longer collect interest on that loan until they make another loan to replace it. As long as the borrower keeps paying interest, the banks are happy. And if they need to lend the borrower some more money so he can afford to pay the interest, that’s fine too. Anything but letting the loan default.

Given those incentives, how do you expect a chart of the outstanding loans and credit of US commercial banks to look?

If you guessed up only, you’d be correct.

So what does this banking system have to do with bullshit jobs? Well, I’d argue that the fractionally reserved fiat banking system, in and of itself, is an anti-capitalist system. Money is the communication layer of capitalism, as I’ve previously written.

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When one group of people can create money out of thin air, they have the ability to reallocate wealth in the economy. As long as the money is still functional, of course. Too much money creation and wealth reallocation, and people stop trusting the money. That’s when inflation becomes hyperinflation, the money no longer functions, and the whole system implodes.

Wealth reallocation by a small select group is the essence of a centrally planned socialist/Marxist economy. And we all know how efficient those economies are. In fact, Graeber himself mentioned the inefficiency of socialist states like the Soviet Union in his original article, and was not at all surprised by the existence of bullshit jobs in such an economic system. When wealth can be reallocated by central planners without regard to people’s preferences in a free market, inefficiency is never punished, so zombie companies full of bullshit jobs never go bankrupt.

The same thing happens under our “capitalist” system. Zombie companies full of bullshit jobs can get almost unlimited funding from too-big-to-fail banks, who don’t care whether they repay the loans, as long as they stay in business and keep making the interest payments. Sometimes the funding is in the form of loans directly, sometimes it’s in the form of massive stock market bubbles inflated by the endless money creation, sometimes through junk bond issuance funded by the same bubble economics, and sometimes it’s venture capital funds flush with liquidity for the same reason. Regardless, the cause, and the outcome, are the same.

The corrupt bankers own the corrupt politicians, so when the inevitable so-called black swan event occurs and the rotten edifice starts to quiver, another bailout is promptly rolled out. The government borrows trillions from their owners over at the Federal Reserve, who create the money out of thin air. The government sends it on over to the bankers who got caught with their hand in the cookie jar once again, and they paper over the massive holes in their balance sheet caused by blowing asset bubbles and funding inefficient zombie companies. Or sometimes, the government skips the middlemen entirely and bails out Boeing or whoever it happens to be directly.

And once again, bullshit jobs that couldn’t survive free market competition are rewarded at the expense of savers and taxpayers. As always, this flood of new liquidity flows out through the economy, causing inflation and boosting income for other inefficient companies that also deserved to fail. Creative destruction, a fundamental feature of a capitalist system, is avoided once again.

In my opinion, the banking system is at the root of the problem causing the proliferation of bullshit jobs. The system itself is, by design, fundamentally anti-capitalist in nature and function. It’s really a giant privately owned economic central planning system, in which a small fraction of people determine how resources are allocated, with privatized profits and socialized losses. The Soviet technocrats would be jealous.

Unfortunately, the bankers have successfully connected their industry so tightly to the term “capitalist” that showing people they’re anything but is almost impossible. To paraphrase the well-known quote, the greatest trick the bankers ever pulled was convincing the world that they’re the real capitalists.

Until the banking and monetary system fundamentally changes, inefficiency will persist and bullshit jobs will continue to proliferate. In my opinion, the problem is very much an economic problem. And it’s not a “late-stage capitalism” problem, it’s a “capitalism left the building a century ago” problem. We don’t need to get rid of capitalism, we’ve already done that. We need to bring sound money, and with it the possibility of a capitalist economy, back again.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

One of the most common criticisms leveled against nostr is the perceived lack of assurance when it comes to data storage. Critics argue that without a centralized authority guaranteeing that all data is preserved, important information will be lost. They also claim that running a relay will become prohibitively expensive. While there is truth to these concerns, they miss the mark. The genius of nostr lies in its flexibility, resilience, and the way it harnesses human incentives to ensure data availability in practice.

A nostr relay is simply a server that holds cryptographically verifiable signed data and makes it available to others. Relays are simple, flexible, open, and require no permission to run. Critics are right that operating a relay attempting to store all nostr data will be costly. What they miss is that most will not run all encompassing archive relays. Nostr does not rely on massive archive relays. Instead, anyone can run a relay and choose to store whatever subset of data they want. This keeps costs low and operations flexible, making relay operation accessible to all sorts of individuals and entities with varying use cases.

Critics are correct that there is no ironclad guarantee that every piece of data will always be available. Unlike bitcoin where data permanence is baked into the system at a steep cost, nostr does not promise that every random note or meme will be preserved forever. That said, in practice, any data perceived as valuable by someone will likely be stored and distributed by multiple entities. If something matters to someone, they will keep a signed copy.

Nostr is the Streisand Effect in protocol form. The Streisand effect is when an attempt to suppress information backfires, causing it to spread even further. With nostr, anyone can broadcast signed data, anyone can store it, and anyone can distribute it. Try to censor something important? Good luck. The moment it catches attention, it will be stored on relays across the globe, copied, and shared by those who find it worth keeping. Data deemed important will be replicated across servers by individuals acting in their own interest.

Nostr’s distributed nature ensures that the system does not rely on a single point of failure or a corporate overlord. Instead, it leans on the collective will of its users. The result is a network where costs stay manageable, participation is open to all, and valuable verifiable data is stored and distributed forever.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.

A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.

According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.

Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.

Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.

This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.

Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.

The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.

According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.

Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.

The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.

Stablecoin regulation

On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.

David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.

Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.

The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

Someone asked for my thoughts, so I’ll share them thoughtfully. I’m not here to dictate how to promote Nostr—I’m still learning about it myself. While I’m not new to Nostr, freedom tech is a newer space for me. I’m skilled at advocating for topics I deeply understand, but freedom tech isn’t my expertise, so take my words with a grain of salt. Nothing I say is set in stone.

Those who need Nostr the most are the ones most vulnerable to censorship on other platforms right now. Reaching them requires real-time awareness of global issues and the dynamic relationships between governments and tech providers, which can shift suddenly. Effective Nostr promoters must grasp this and adapt quickly.

The best messengers are people from or closely tied to these at-risk regions—those who truly understand the local political and cultural dynamics. They can connect with those in need when tensions rise. Ideal promoters are rational, trustworthy, passionate about Nostr, but above all, dedicated to amplifying people’s voices when it matters most.

Forget influencers, corporate-backed figures, or traditional online PR—it comes off as inauthentic, corny, desperate and forced. Nostr’s promotion should be grassroots and organic, driven by a few passionate individuals who believe in Nostr and the communities they serve.

The idea that “people won’t join Nostr due to lack of reach” is nonsense. Everyone knows X’s “reach” is mostly with bots. If humans want real conversations, Nostr is the place. X is great for propaganda, but Nostr is for the authentic voices of the people.

Those spreading Nostr must be so passionate they’re willing to onboard others, which is time-consuming but rewarding for the right person. They’ll need to make Nostr and onboarding a core part of who they are. I see no issue with that level of dedication. I’ve been known to get that way myself at times. It’s fun for some folks.

With love, I suggest not adding Bitcoin promotion with Nostr outreach. Zaps already integrate that element naturally. (Still promote within the Bitcoin ecosystem, but this is about reaching vulnerable voices who needed Nostr yesterday.)

To promote Nostr, forget conventional strategies. “Influencers” aren’t the answer. “Influencers” are not the future. A trusted local community member has real influence—reach them. Connect with people seeking Nostr’s benefits but lacking the technical language to express it. This means some in the Nostr community might need to step outside of the Bitcoin bubble, which is uncomfortable but necessary. Thank you in advance to those who are willing to do that.

I don’t know who is paid to promote Nostr, if anyone. This piece isn’t shade. But it’s exhausting to see innocent voices globally silenced on corporate platforms like X while Nostr exists. Last night, I wondered: how many more voices must be censored before the Nostr community gets uncomfortable and thinks creatively to reach the vulnerable?

A warning: the global need for censorship-resistant social media is undeniable. If Nostr doesn’t make itself known, something else will fill that void. Let’s start this conversation.

@ 211c0393:e9262c4d

Original: https://www.yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgguqwf52cyve89xnxc4eh95jklelgw646kkkcdhxm4fp05jvtzdqq2hj6fhtpqkuutdv4xxxazjv9t92atedev45mcwusz

Nihon no kakuseizai Nihon no kakusei-zai bijinesu no yami: Keisatsu, bōryokudan, soshite chinmoku no kyōhan kankei' no shinsō** 1. Bōryokudan no shihai kōzō (kōteki dēta ni motodzuku) yunyū izon no riyū: Kokunai seizō wa kon'nan (Heisei 6-nenkakusei-zai genryō kisei-hō' de kisei kyōka)￫ myanmā Chūgoku kara no mitsuyu ga shuryū (Kokuren yakubutsu hanzai jimusho World Drug Report 2023'). Bōryokudan no rieki-ritsu: 1 Kg-atari shiire kakaku 30 man-en ￫ kouri kakaku 500 man ~ 1000 man-en (Keisatsuchōyakubutsu jōsei hōkoku-sho' 2022-nen). 2. Keisatsu to bōryokudan no kyōsei kankei' taiho tōkei no fushizen-sa: Zen yakubutsu taiho-sha no 70-pāsento ga tanjun shoji (kōsei Rōdōshōyakubutsu ran'yō jōkyō' 2023-nen). Mitsuyu soshiki no tekihatsu wa zentai no 5-pāsento-miman (tōkyōchikentokusōbu dēta). Media no kenshō: NHK supesharu kakusei-zai sensō'(2021-nen) de shiteki sa retamattan yūzā yūsen sōsa' no jittai. 3. Mujun suru genjitsu juyō no fukashi-sei: G 7 de saikō no kakusei-zai kakaku (1 g-atari 3 ~ 7 man-en, Ō kome no 3-bai)￫ bōryokudan no bōri (Zaimushō soshiki hanzai shikin ryūdō chōsa'). Shiyōsha-ritsu wa hikui (jinkō no 0. 2%, Kokuren chōsa) ga, taiho-sha no kahansū o shimeru mujun. 4.Mitsuyu soshiki taisaku' no genkai kokusai-tekina shippai rei: Mekishiko (karuteru tekihatsu-go mo ichiba kakudai), Ōshū (gōsei yakubutsu no man'en)￫ daitai soshiki ga sokuza ni taitō (Ei ekonomisuto' 2023-nen 6 tsuki-gō). Nippon'nochiri-teki hande: Kaijō mitsuyu no tekihatsu-ritsu wa 10-pāsento-miman (Kaijōhoanchō hōkoku). 5. Kaiketsusaku no saikō (jijitsu ni motodzuku teian) ADHD chiryō-yaku no gōhō-ka: Amerika seishin'igakukaiADHD kanja no 60-pāsento ga jiko chiryō de ihō yakubutsu shiyō'(2019-nen kenkyū). Nihonde wa ritarin aderōru kinshi ￫ bōryokudan no ichiba dokusen. Rōdō kankyō kaikaku: Karō-shi rain koe no rōdō-sha 20-pāsento (Kōrōshō rōdō jikan chōsa' 2023-nen)￫ kakusei-zai juyō no ichiin. 6. Kokuhatsu no risuku to jōhō-gen tokumei-sei no jūyō-sei: Kako no bōryokudan hōfuku jirei (2018-nen, kokuhatsu kisha e no kyōhaku jiken Mainichishinbun hōdō). Kōteki dēta nomi in'yō: Rei:Keisatsuchō tōkei'Kokuren hōkoku-sho' nado daisansha kenshō kanōna jōhō. Ketsuron: Henkaku no tame ni wajijitsu' no kajika ga hitsuyō `yakubutsu = kojin no dōtokuteki mondai' to iu gensō ga, bōryokudan to fuhai kanryō o ri shite iru. Kokusai dēta to kokunai tōkei no mujun o tsuku koto de, shisutemu no giman o abakeru. Anzen'na kyōyū no tame ni: Kojin tokutei o sake, tokumei purattofōmu (tōa-jō fōramu-tō) de giron. Kōteki kikan no dēta o chokusetsu rinku (rei: Keisatsuchō PDF repōto). Kono bunsho wa, kōhyō sa reta tōkei media hōdō nomi o konkyo to shi, kojin no suisoku o haijo shite imasu. Kyōi o yokeru tame, gutaitekina kojin soshiki no hinan wa itotekini sakete imasu. Show more 1,321 / 5,000 Stimulants in Japan The dark side of the Japanese stimulant drug business:

The truth about the police, the yakuza, and their "silent complicity"**

1. The control structure of the yakuza (based on public data)

Reasons for dependence on imports: Domestic production is difficult (tightened regulations under the Stimulant Drug Raw Materials Control Act of 1994) → Smuggling from Myanmar and China is the norm (UNODC World Drug Report 2023).

Profit margins for yakuza: Purchase price of 300,000 yen per kg → Retail price of 5 to 10 million yen (National Police Agency Drug Situation Report 2022).

1. The "symbiotic relationship" between the police and the yakuza

The unnaturalness of arrest statistics: 70% of all drug arrests are for simple possession (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Drug Abuse Situation 2023). Smuggling organizations account for less than 5% of all arrests (Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Unit data). Media verification: The reality of "end-user priority investigation" pointed out in the NHK special "Stimulant War" (2021).

1. Contradictory reality

Invisibility of demand: The highest stimulant drug price in the G7 (30,000 to 70,000 yen per gram, three times that of Europe and the United States) → Excessive profits by organized crime (Ministry of Finance "Survey on Organized Crime Fund Flows"). The contradiction that the user rate is low (0.2% of the population, UN survey), but accounts for the majority of arrests.

1. The limits of "countermeasures against smuggling organizations"

International examples of failure: Mexico (market expands even after cartel crackdown), Europe (proliferation of synthetic drugs) → Alternative organizations immediately emerge (UK "The Economist" June 2023 issue). Japan's geographical handicap: The crackdown rate for maritime smuggling is less than 10% (Japan Coast Guard report).

1. Rethinking solutions (fact-based proposals)

Legalization of ADHD medications:

American Psychiatric Association: "60% of ADHD patients self-medicate with illegal drugs" (2019 study).

Banning Ritalin and Adderall in Japan → Yakuza monopoly on the market.

Work environment reform:

20% of workers exceed the line of death from overwork (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare "Working Hours Survey" 2023) → One cause of stimulant drug demand.

1. Risks of accusation and sources of information

Importance of anonymity:

Past cases of Yakuza retaliation (2018, threat against accusing journalist, reported in the Mainichi Shimbun).

Citing only public data:

Examples: Information that can be verified by a third party, such as "National Police Agency statistics" and "UN reports".

Conclusion: Visualization of "facts" is necessary for change

The illusion that "drugs = individual moral problems" benefits Yakuza and corrupt bureaucrats.

Pointing out the contradictions between international data and domestic statistics can expose the deception of the system.

For safe sharing:

Avoid identifying individuals and discuss on anonymous platforms (such as forums on Tor).

Direct links to data from public organizations (e.g. National Police Agency PDF report).

This document is based solely on published statistics and media reports, and excludes personal speculation.

To avoid threats, we have intentionally avoided blaming specific individuals or organizations. Send feedback

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

Please respect Virginia Giuffre’s memory by refraining from asking about the circumstances or theories surrounding her passing.

Since Virginia Giuffre’s death, I’ve reflected on what she would want me to say or do. This piece is my attempt to honor her legacy.

When I first spoke with Virginia, I was struck by her unshakable hope. I had grown cynical after years in the anti-human trafficking movement, worn down by a broken system and a government that often seemed complicit. But Virginia’s passion, creativity, and belief that survivors could be heard reignited something in me. She reminded me of my younger, more hopeful self. Instead of warning her about the challenges ahead, I let her dream big, unburdened by my own disillusionment. That conversation changed me for the better, and following her lead led to meaningful progress.

Virginia was one of the bravest people I’ve ever known. As a survivor of Epstein, Maxwell, and their co-conspirators, she risked everything to speak out, taking on some of the world’s most powerful figures.

She loved when I said, “Epstein isn’t the only Epstein.” This wasn’t just about one man—it was a call to hold all abusers accountable and to ensure survivors find hope and healing.

The Epstein case often gets reduced to sensational details about the elite, but that misses the bigger picture. Yes, we should be holding all of the co-conspirators accountable, we must listen to the survivors’ stories. Their experiences reveal how predators exploit vulnerabilities, offering lessons to prevent future victims.

You’re not powerless in this fight. Educate yourself about trafficking and abuse—online and offline—and take steps to protect those around you. Supporting survivors starts with small, meaningful actions. Free online resources can guide you in being a safe, supportive presence.

When high-profile accusations arise, resist snap judgments. Instead of dismissing survivors as “crazy,” pause to consider the trauma they may be navigating. Speaking out or coping with abuse is never easy. You don’t have to believe every claim, but you can refrain from attacking accusers online.

Society also fails at providing aftercare for survivors. The government, often part of the problem, won’t solve this. It’s up to us. Prevention is critical, but when abuse occurs, step up for your loved ones and community. Protect the vulnerable. it’s a challenging but a rewarding journey.

If you’re contributing to Nostr, you’re helping build a censorship resistant platform where survivors can share their stories freely, no matter how powerful their abusers are. Their voices can endure here, offering strength and hope to others. This gives me great hope for the future.

Virginia Giuffre’s courage was a gift to the world. It was an honor to know and serve her. She will be deeply missed. My hope is that her story inspires others to take on the powerful.

@ 52b4a076:e7fad8bd

I have been recently building NFDB, a new relay DB. This post is meant as a short overview.

Regular relays have challenges

Current relay software have significant challenges, which I have experienced when hosting Nostr.land: - Scalability is only supported by adding full replicas, which does not scale to large relays. - Most relays use slow databases and are not optimized for large scale usage. - Search is near-impossible to implement on standard relays. - Privacy features such as NIP-42 are lacking. - Regular DB maintenance tasks on normal relays require extended downtime. - Fault-tolerance is implemented, if any, using a load balancer, which is limited. - Personalization and advanced filtering is not possible. - Local caching is not supported.

NFDB: A scalable database for large relays

NFDB is a new database meant for medium-large scale relays, built on FoundationDB that provides: - Near-unlimited scalability - Extended fault tolerance - Instant loading - Better search - Better personalization - and more.

Search

NFDB has extended search capabilities including: - Semantic search: Search for meaning, not words. - Interest-based search: Highlight content you care about. - Multi-faceted queries: Easily filter by topic, author group, keywords, and more at the same time. - Wide support for event kinds, including users, articles, etc.

Personalization

NFDB allows significant personalization: - Customized algorithms: Be your own algorithm. - Spam filtering: Filter content to your WoT, and use advanced spam filters. - Topic mutes: Mute topics, not keywords. - Media filtering: With Nostr.build, you will be able to filter NSFW and other content - Low data mode: Block notes that use high amounts of cellular data. - and more

Other

NFDB has support for many other features such as: - NIP-42: Protect your privacy with private drafts and DMs - Microrelays: Easily deploy your own personal microrelay - Containers: Dedicated, fast storage for discoverability events such as relay lists

Calcite: A local microrelay database

Calcite is a lightweight, local version of NFDB that is meant for microrelays and caching, meant for thousands of personal microrelays.

Calcite HA is an additional layer that allows live migration and relay failover in under 30 seconds, providing higher availability compared to current relays with greater simplicity. Calcite HA is enabled in all Calcite deployments.

For zero-downtime, NFDB is recommended.

Noswhere SmartCache

Relays are fixed in one location, but users can be anywhere.

Noswhere SmartCache is a CDN for relays that dynamically caches data on edge servers closest to you, allowing: - Multiple regions around the world - Improved throughput and performance - Faster loading times

routerd

routerd is a custom load-balancer optimized for Nostr relays, integrated with SmartCache.

routerd is specifically integrated with NFDB and Calcite HA to provide fast failover and high performance.

Ending notes

NFDB is planned to be deployed to Nostr.land in the coming weeks.

A lot more is to come. 👀️️️️️️

@ ecda4328:1278f072

An honest response to objections — and an answer to the most important question: why does any of this matter?

Last updated: May 21, 2025\ \ 📄 Document version:\ EN: https://drive.proton.me/urls/A4A8Y8A0RR#Sj2OBsBYJFr1\ RU: https://drive.proton.me/urls/GS9AS1NB30#ZdKKb5ackB5e

---

\ Statement: Deflation is not the enemy, but a natural state in an age of technological progress.\ Criticism: in real macroeconomics, long-term deflation is linked to depressions.\ Deflation discourages borrowers and investors, and makes debt heavier.\ Natural ≠ Safe.

1. “Deflation → Depression, Debt → Heavier”

This is true in a debt-based system. Yes, in a fiat economy, debt balloons to the sky, and without inflation it collapses.

But Bitcoin offers not “deflation for its own sake,” but an environment where you don’t need to be in debt to survive. Where savings don’t melt away.\ Jeff Booth said it clearly:

“Technology is inherently deflationary. Fighting deflation with the printing press is fighting progress.”

You don’t have to take on credit to live in this system. Which means — deflation is not an enemy, but an ally.

💡 People often confuse two concepts:

1. That deflation doesn’t work in an economy built on credit and leverage — that’s true.

2. That deflation itself is bad — that’s a myth.

📉 In reality, deflation is the natural state of a free market when technology makes everything cheaper.

Historical example:\ In the U.S., from the Civil War to the early 1900s, the economy experienced gentle deflation — alongside economic growth, employment expansion, and industrial boom.\ Prices fell: for example, a sack of flour cost \~$1.00 in 1865 and \~$0.50 in 1895 — and there was no crisis, because wages held and productivity increased.

Modern example:\ Consumer electronics over the past 20–30 years are a vivid example of technological deflation:\ – What cost $5,000 in 2000 (e.g., a 720p plasma TV) now costs $300 and delivers 10× better quality.\ – Phones, computers, cameras — all became far more powerful and cheaper at the same time.\ That’s how tech-driven deflation works: you get more for less.

📌 Bitcoin doesn’t make the world deflationary. It just doesn’t fight against deflation, unlike the fiat model that fights to preserve its debt pyramid.\ It stops punishing savers and rewards long-term thinkers.

Even economists often confuse organic tech deflation with crisis-driven (debt) deflation.

---

\ \ Statement: We’ve never lived in a truly free market — central banks and issuance always existed.\ Criticism: ideological statement.\ A truly “free” market is utopian.\ Banks and monetary issuance emerged in response to crises.\ A market without arbiters is not always fair, especially under imperfect competition.

2. “The Free Market Is a Utopia”

Yes, “pure markets” are rare. But what we have today isn’t regulation — it’s centralized power in the hands of central banks and cartels.

Bitcoin offers rules without rulers. 21 million. No one can change the issuance. It’s not ideology — it’s code instead of trust. And it has worked for 15 years.

💬 People often say that banks and centralized issuance emerged as a response to crises — as if the market couldn’t manage on its own.\ But if a system needs to be “rescued” again and again through money printing… maybe the problem isn’t freedom, but the system itself?

📌 Crises don’t disprove the value of free markets. They only reveal how fragile a system becomes when the price of money is set not by the market, but by a boardroom vote.\ Bitcoin doesn’t magically eliminate crises — it removes the root cause: the ability to manipulate money in someone’s interest.

---

\ \ Statement: Inflation is an invisible tax, especially on the poor and working class.\ Criticism: partly true: inflation can reduce debt burden, boost employment.\ The state indexes social benefits. Under stable inflation, compensators can work. Under deflation, things might be worse (mass layoffs, defaults).

3. “Inflation Can Help”

Theoretically — yes. Textbooks say moderate inflation can reduce debt burdens and stimulate consumption and jobs.\ But in practice — it works as a stealth tax, especially on those without assets. The wealthy escape — into real estate, stocks, funds.\ But the poor and working class lose purchasing power because their money is held in cash — and cash devalues.

💬 As Lyn Alden says:

“When your money can’t hold value, you’re forced to become an investor — even if you just want to save and live.”

The state may index pensions or benefits — but always with a lag, and always less than actual price increases.\ If bread rises 15% and your payment increase is 5%, you got poorer, even if the number on paper went up.

💥 We live in an inflationary system of everything:\ – Inflationary money\ – Inflationary products\ – Inflationary content\ – And now even inflationary minds

🧠 This is more than just rising prices — it’s a degradation of reality perception. You’re always rushing, everything loses meaning.\ But when did the system start working against you?

📉 What went wrong after 1971?

This chart shows that from 1948 to the early 1970s, productivity and wages grew together.\ But after the end of the gold standard in 1971 — the connection broke. Productivity kept rising, but real wages stalled.

👉 This means: you work more, better, faster — but buy less.

🔗 Source: wtfhappenedin1971.com

When you must spend today because tomorrow it’ll be worth less — that’s rewarding impulse and punishing long-term thinking.

Bitcoin offers a different environment:\ – Savings work\ – Long-term thinking is rewarded\ – The price of the future is calculated, not forced by a printing press

📌 Inflation can be a tool. But in government hands, it became a weapon — a slow, inevitable upward redistribution of wealth.

---

\ \ Statement: War is not growth, but a reallocation of resources into destruction.

Criticism: war can spur technological leaps (Internet, GPS, nuclear energy — all from military programs). "Military Keynesianism" was a real model.

4. “War Drives R&D”

Yes, wars sometimes give rise to tech spin-offs: Internet, GPS, nuclear power — all originated from military programs.

But that doesn’t make war a source of progress — it makes tech a byproduct of catastrophe.

“War reallocates resources toward destruction — not growth.”

Progress doesn’t happen because of war — it happens despite it.

If scientific breakthroughs require a million dead and burnt cities — maybe you’ve built your economy wrong.

💬 Even Michael Saylor said:

“If you need war to develop technology — you’ve built civilization wrong.”

No innovation justifies diverting human labor, minds, and resources toward destruction.\ War is always the opposite of efficiency — more is wasted than created.

🧠 Bitcoin, on the other hand, is an example of how real R&D happens without violence.\ No taxes. No army. Just math, voluntary participation, and open-source code.

📌 Military Keynesianism is not a model of progress — it’s a symptom of a sick monetary system that needs destruction to reboot.

Bitcoin shows that coordination without violence is possible.\ This is R&D of a new kind: based not on destruction, but digital creation.

---

Statement: Bitcoin isn’t “Gold 1.0,” but an improved version: divisible, verifiable, unseizable.

Criticism: Bitcoin has no physical value; "unseizability" is a theory;\ Gold is material and autonomous.

5. “Bitcoin Has No Physical Value”

And gold does? Just because it shines?

Physical form is no guarantee of value.\ Real value lies in: scarcity, reliable transfer, verifiability, and non-confiscatability.

Gold is:\ – Hard to divide\ – Hard to verify\ – Expensive to store\ – Easy to seize

💡 Bitcoin is the first store of value in history that is fully free from physical limitations, and yet:\ – Absolutely scarce (21M, forever)\ – Instantly transferable over the Internet\ – Cryptographically verifiable\ – Controlled by no government

🔑 Bitcoin’s value lies in its liberation from the physical.\ It doesn’t need to be “backed” by gold or oil. It’s backed by energy, mathematics, and ongoing verification.

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” — Warren Buffett

When you buy bitcoin, you’re not paying for a “token” — you’re gaining access to a network of distributed financial energy.

⚡️ What are you really getting when you own bitcoin?\ – A key to a digital asset that can’t be faked\ – The ability to send “crystallized energy” anywhere on Earth (it takes 10 minutes on the base L1 layer, or instantly via the Lightning Network)\ – A role in a new accounting system that runs 24/7/365\ – Freedom: from banks, borders, inflation, and force

📉 Bitcoin doesn’t require physical value — because it creates value:\ Through trust, scarcity, and energy invested in mining.\ And unlike gold, it was never associated with slavery.

---

Statement: There’s no “income without risk” in Bitcoin: just hold — you preserve; want more — invest, risk, build.

Criticism: contradicts HODL logic; speculation remains dominant behavior.

6. “Speculation Dominates”

For now — yes. That’s normal for the early phase of a new technology. Awareness doesn’t come instantly.

What matters is not the motive of today’s buyer — but what they’re buying.

📉 A speculator may come and go — but the asset remains.\ And this asset is the only one in history that will never exist again. 21 million. Forever.

📌 Look deeper. Bitcoin has:\ – No CEO\ – No central issuer\ – No inflation\ – No “off switch”\ 💡 It was fairly distributed — through mining, long before ASICs existed. In the early years, bitcoin was spent and exchanged — not hoarded. Only those who truly believed in it are still holding it today.

💡 It’s not a stock. Not a startup. Not someone’s project.\ It’s a new foundation for trust.\ It’s opting out of a system where freedom is a privilege you’re granted under conditions.

🧠 People say: “Bitcoin can be copied.”\ Theoretically — yes.\ Practically — never.

Here’s what you’d need to recreate Bitcoin:\ – No pre-mine\ – A founder who disappears and never sells\ – No foundation or corporation\ – Tens of thousands of nodes worldwide\ – 701 million terahashes of hash power\ – Thousands of devs writing open protocols\ – Hundreds of global conferences\ – Millions of people defending digital sovereignty\ – All that without a single marketing budget

That’s all.

🔁 Everything else is an imitation, not a creation.\ Just like you can’t “reinvent fire” — Bitcoin can only exist once.

---

Statements:\ **The Russia's '90s weren’t a free market — just anarchic chaos without rights protection.\ **Unlike fiat or even dollars, Bitcoin is the first asset with real defense — from governments, inflation, even thugs.\ *And yes, even if your barber asks about Bitcoin — maybe it's not a bubble, but a sign that inflation has already hit everyone.

Criticism: Bitcoin’s protection isn’t universal — it works only with proper handling and isn’t available to all.\ Some just want to “get rich.”\ None of this matters because:

1. Bitcoin’s volatility (-30% in a week, +50% in a month) makes it unusable for price planning or contracts.

2. It can’t handle mass-scale usage.

3. To become currency, geopolitical will is needed — and without the first two, don’t even talk about the third.\ Also: “Bitcoin is too complicated for the average person.”

7. “It’s Too Complex for the Masses”

It’s complex — if you’re using L1 (Layer 1). But even grandmas use Telegram. In El Salvador, schoolkids buy lunch with Lightning. My barber installed Wallet of Satoshi in minutes right in front of me — and I now pay for my haircut via Lightning.

UX is just a matter of time. And it’s improving. Emerging tools:\ Cashu, Fedimint, Fedi, Wallet of Satoshi, Phoenix, Proton Wallet, Swiss Bitcoin Pay, Bolt Card / CoinCorner (NFC cards for Lightning payments).

This is like the internet in 1995:\ It started with modems — now it’s 4K streaming.

💸 Now try sending a regular bank transfer abroad:\ – you need to type a long IBAN\ – add SWIFT/BIC codes\ – include the recipient’s full physical address (!), compromising their privacy\ – sometimes add extra codes or “purpose of payment”\ – you might get a call from your bank “just to confirm”\ – no way to check the status — the money floats somewhere between correspondent/intermediary banks\ – weekends or holidays? Banks are closed\ – and don’t forget the limits, restrictions, and potential freezes

📌 With Bitcoin, you just scan a QR code and send.\ 10 minutes on-chain = final settlement.\ Via Lightning = instant and nearly free.\ No bureaucracy. No permission. No borders.

---

8. “Can’t Handle the Load”

A common myth.\ Yes, Bitcoin L1 processes about 7 transactions per second — intentionally. It’s not built to be Visa. It’s a financial protocol, just like TCP/IP is a network protocol. TCP/IP isn’t “fast” or “slow” — the experience depends on the infrastructure built on top: servers, routers, hardware. In the ’90s, it delivered text. Today, it streams Netflix. The protocol didn’t change — the stack did.

Same with Bitcoin: L1 defines rules, security, finality.\ Scaling and speed? That’s the second layer’s job.

To understand scale:

| Network | TPS (Transactions/sec) | | --- | --- | | Visa | up to 24,000 | | Mastercard | \~5,000 | | PayPal | \~193 | | Litecoin | \~56 | | Ethereum | \~20 | | Bitcoin | \~7 |

\ ⚡️ Enter Lightning Network — Bitcoin’s “fast lane.”\ It allows millions of transactions per second, instantly and nearly free.

And it’s not a sidechain.

❗️ Lightning is not a separate network.\ It uses real Bitcoin transactions (2-of-2 multisig). You can close the channel to L1 at any time. It’s not an alternative — it’s a native extension built into Bitcoin.\ Also evolving: Ark, Fedimint, eCash — new ways to scale and add privacy.

📉 So criticizing Bitcoin for “slowness” is like blaming TCP/IP because your old modem won’t stream YouTube.\ The protocol isn’t the problem — it’s the infrastructure.

🛡️ And by the way: Visa crashes more often than Bitcoin.

---

9. “We Need Geopolitical Will”

Not necessarily. All it takes is the will of the people — and leaders willing to act. El Salvador didn’t wait for G20 approval or IMF blessings. Since 2001, the country had used the US dollar as its official currency, abandoning its own colón. But that didn’t save it from inflation or dependency on foreign monetary policy. In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. Since March 13, 2024, they’ve been purchasing 1 BTC daily, tracked through their public address:

🔗 Address\ 📅 First transaction

This policy became the foundation of their Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) — a state-led effort to accumulate Bitcoin as a national reserve asset for long-term stability and sovereignty.

Their example inspired others.

In March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve of the USA, to be funded through confiscated Bitcoin and digital assets.\ The idea: accumulate, don’t sell, and strategically expand the reserve — without extra burden on taxpayers.

Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming) proposed the BITCOIN Act, targeting the purchase of 1 million BTC over five years (\~5% of the total supply).\ The plan: fund it via revaluation of gold certificates and other budget-neutral strategies.

📚 More: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — Wikipedia

👉 So no global consensus is required. No IMF greenlight.\ All it takes is conviction — and an understanding that the future of finance lies in decentralized, scarce assets like Bitcoin.

---

10. “-30% in a week, +50% in a month = not money”

True — Bitcoin is volatile. But that’s normal for new technologies and emerging money. It’s not a bug — it’s a price discovery phase. The world is still learning what this asset is.

📉 Volatility is the price of entry.\ 📈 But the reward is buying the future at a discount.

As Michael Saylor put it:

“A tourist sees Niagara Falls as chaos — roaring, foaming, spraying water.\ An engineer sees immense energy.\ It all depends on your mental model.”

Same with Bitcoin. Speculators see chaos. Investors see structural scarcity. Builders see a new financial foundation.

💡 Now consider gold:

👉 After the gold standard was abandoned in 1971, the price of gold skyrocketed from around \~$300 to over $2,700 (adjusted to 2023 dollars) by 1980. Along the way, it experienced extreme volatility — with crashes of 40–60% even amid the broader uptrend.\ 💡 (\~$300 is the inflation-adjusted equivalent of about $38 in 1971 dollars)\ 📈 Source: Gold Price Chart — Macrotrends\ \ Nobody said, “This can’t be money.” \ Because money is defined not by volatility, but by scarcity, adoption, and trust — which build over time.

📊 The more people save in Bitcoin, the more its volatility fades.

This is a journey — not a fixed state.

We don’t judge the internet by how it worked in 1994.\ So why expect Bitcoin to be the “perfect currency” in 2025?

It grows bottom-up — without regulators’ permission.\ And the longer it survives, the stronger it becomes.

Remember how many times it’s been declared dead.\ And how many times it came back — stronger.

---

📊 Gold vs. Bitcoin: Supply Comparison

This chart shows the key difference between the two hard assets:

🔹 Gold — supply keeps growing.\ Mining may be limited, but it’s still inflationary.\ Each year, there’s more — with no known cap: new mines, asteroid mining, recycling.

🔸 Bitcoin — capped at 21 million.\ The emission schedule is public, mathematically predictable, and ends completely around 2140.

🧠 Bottom line:\ Gold is good.\ Bitcoin is better — for predictability and scarcity.

💡 As Saifedean Ammous said:

“Gold was the best monetary good… until Bitcoin.”

### While we argue — fiat erodes every day.

No matter your view on Bitcoin, just show me one other asset that is simultaneously:

– immune to devaluation by decree\ – impossible to print more of\ – impossible to confiscate by a centralized order\ – impossible to counterfeit\ – and, most importantly — transferable across borders without asking permission from a bank, a state, or a passport

💸 Try sending $10,000 through PayPal from Iran to Paraguay, or Bangladesh to Saint Lucia.\ Good luck. PayPal doesn't even work there.

Now open a laptop, type 12 words — and you have access to your savings anywhere on Earth.

🌍 Bitcoin doesn't ask for permission.\ It works for everyone, everywhere, all the time.

📌 There has never been anything like this before.

Bitcoin is the first asset in history that combines:

– digital nature\ – predictable scarcity\ – absolute portability\ – and immunity from tyranny

💡 As Michael Saylor said:

“Bitcoin is the first money in human history not created by bankers or politicians — but by engineers.”

You can own it with no bank.\ No intermediary.\ No passport.\ No approval.

That’s why Bitcoin isn’t just “internet money” or “crypto” or “digital gold.”\ It may not be perfect — but it’s incorruptible.\ And it’s not going away.\ It’s already here.\ It is the foundation of a new financial reality.

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🔒 This is not speculation. This is a peaceful financial revolution.\ 🪙 This is not a stock. It’s money — like the world has never seen.\ ⛓️ This is not a fad. It’s a freedom protocol.

And when even the barber starts asking about Bitcoin — it’s not a bubble.\ It’s a sign that the system is breaking.\ And people are looking for an exit.

For the first time — they have one.

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💼 This is not about investing. It’s about the dignity of work.

Imagine a man who cleans toilets at an airport every day.

Not a “prestigious” job.\ But a crucial one.\ Without him — filth, bacteria, disease.

He shows up on time. He works with his hands.

And his money? It devalues. Every day.

He doesn’t work less — often he works more than those in suits.\ But he can afford less and less — because in this system, honest labor loses value each year.

Now imagine he’s paid in Bitcoin.

Not in some “volatile coin,” but in hard money — with a limited supply.\ Money that can’t be printed, reversed, or devalued by central banks.

💡 Then he could:

– Stop rushing to spend, knowing his labor won’t be worth less tomorrow\ – Save for a dream — without fear of inflation eating it away\ – Feel that his time and effort are respected — because they retain value

Bitcoin gives anyone — engineer or janitor — a way out of the game rigged against them.\ A chance to finally build a future where savings are real.

This is economic justice.\ This is digital dignity.

📉 In fiat, you have to spend — or your money melts.\ 📈 In Bitcoin, you choose when to spend — because it’s up to you.

🧠 In a deflationary economy, both saving and spending are healthy:

You don’t scramble to survive — you choose to create.

🎯 That’s true freedom.

When even someone cleaning floors can live without fear —\ and know that their time doesn’t vanish... it turns into value.

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🧱 The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is not just a technology — it’s rooted in economic philosophy.\ The Austrian School of Economics has long argued that sound money, voluntary exchange, and decentralized decision-making are prerequisites for real prosperity.\ Bitcoin doesn’t reinvent these ideas — it makes them executable.

📉 Inflation doesn’t just erode savings.\ It quietly destroys quality of life.\ You work more — and everything becomes worse:\ – food is cheaper but less nutritious\ – homes are newer but uglier and less durable\ – clothes cost more but fall apart in months\ – streaming is faster, but your attention span collapses\ This isn’t just consumerism — it’s the economics of planned obsolescence.

🧨 Meanwhile, the U.S. debt has exceeded 3x its GDP.\ And nobody wants to buy U.S. bonds anymore — so the U.S. has to buy its own debt.\ Yes: printing money to buy the IOUs you just printed.\ This is the endgame of fiat.

🎭 Bonds are often sold as “safe.”\ But in practice, they are a weapon — especially abroad.\ The U.S. and IMF give loans to developing countries.\ But when those countries can’t repay (due to rigged terms or global economic headwinds), they’re forced to sell land, resources, or strategic assets.\ Both sides lose: the debtor collapses under the weight of debt, while the creditor earns resentment and instability.\ This isn’t cooperation — it’s soft colonialism enabled by inflation.

📌 Bitcoin offers a peaceful exit.\ A financial system where money can’t be created out of thin air.\ Where savings work.\ Where dignity is restored — even for those who clean toilets.

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@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Turning 60

Ten years ago, I turned 50 with a vague sense that something was off.

I was building things, but they didn’t feel grounded.\ I was "in tech," but tech felt like a treadmill—just faster, sleeker tools chasing the same hollow outcomes.\ I knew about Bitcoin, but I dismissed it. I thought it was just “tech for tech’s sake.”

Less than a year later, I fell down the rabbit hole.

It didn’t happen all at once. At first it was curiosity. Then dissonance. Then conviction.

Somewhere in that process, I realized Bitcoin wasn’t just financial—it was philosophical. It was moral. It was real. And it held up a mirror to a life I had built on momentum more than mission.

So I started pruning.

I left Web3.\ I pulled back from projects that ran on hype instead of honesty.\ I repented—for chasing relevance instead of righteousness.\ And I began stacking—not just sats, but new habits. New thinking. New rhythms of faith, work, and rest.

Now at 60, I’m not where I thought I’d be.

But I’m more myself than I’ve ever been.\ More convicted.\ More rooted.\ More ready.

Not to start over—but to build again, from the foundation up.

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If you're in that middle place—between chapters, between convictions, between certainty and surrender—you're not alone.

🟠 I’m still here. Still building. Still listening.

Zap if this resonates, or send your story. I’d love to hear it.

[*Zap *](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

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@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c

O Contexto Legal Brasileiro e o Consentimento

No ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, o consentimento do ofendido pode, em certas circunstâncias, afastar a ilicitude de um ato que, sem ele, configuraria crime (como lesão corporal leve, prevista no Art. 129 do Código Penal). Contudo, o consentimento tem limites claros: não é válido para bens jurídicos indisponíveis, como a vida, e sua eficácia é questionável em casos de lesões corporais graves ou gravíssimas.

A prática de BDSM consensual situa-se em uma zona complexa. Em tese, se ambos os parceiros são adultos, capazes, e consentiram livre e informadamente nos atos praticados, sem que resultem em lesões graves permanentes ou risco de morte não consentido, não haveria crime. O desafio reside na comprovação desse consentimento, especialmente se uma das partes, posteriormente, o negar ou alegar coação.

A Lei Maria da Penha (Lei nº 11.340/2006)

A Lei Maria da Penha é um marco fundamental na proteção da mulher contra a violência doméstica e familiar. Ela estabelece mecanismos para coibir e prevenir tal violência, definindo suas formas (física, psicológica, sexual, patrimonial e moral) e prevendo medidas protetivas de urgência.

Embora essencial, a aplicação da lei em contextos de BDSM pode ser delicada. Uma alegação de violência por parte da mulher, mesmo que as lesões ou situações decorram de práticas consensuais, tende a receber atenção prioritária das autoridades, dada a presunção de vulnerabilidade estabelecida pela lei. Isso pode criar um cenário onde o parceiro masculino enfrenta dificuldades significativas em demonstrar a natureza consensual dos atos, especialmente se não houver provas robustas pré-constituídas.

Outros riscos:

Lesão corporal grave ou gravíssima (art. 129, §§ 1º e 2º, CP), não pode ser justificada pelo consentimento, podendo ensejar persecução penal.

Crimes contra a dignidade sexual (arts. 213 e seguintes do CP) são de ação pública incondicionada e independem de representação da vítima para a investigação e denúncia.

Riscos de Falsas Acusações e Alegação de Coação Futura

Os riscos para os praticantes de BDSM, especialmente para o parceiro que assume o papel dominante ou que inflige dor/restrição (frequentemente, mas não exclusivamente, o homem), podem surgir de diversas frentes:

1. Acusações Externas: Vizinhos, familiares ou amigos que desconhecem a natureza consensual do relacionamento podem interpretar sons, marcas ou comportamentos como sinais de abuso e denunciar às autoridades.
2. Alegações Futuras da Parceira: Em caso de término conturbado, vingança, arrependimento ou mudança de perspectiva, a parceira pode reinterpretar as práticas passadas como abuso e buscar reparação ou retaliação através de uma denúncia. A alegação pode ser de que o consentimento nunca existiu ou foi viciado.
3. Alegação de Coação: Uma das formas mais complexas de refutar é a alegação de que o consentimento foi obtido mediante coação (física, moral, psicológica ou econômica). A parceira pode alegar, por exemplo, que se sentia pressionada, intimidada ou dependente, e que seu "sim" não era genuíno. Provar a ausência de coação a posteriori é extremamente difícil.
4. Ingenuidade e Vulnerabilidade Masculina: Muitos homens, confiando na dinâmica consensual e na parceira, podem negligenciar a necessidade de precauções. A crença de que "isso nunca aconteceria comigo" ou a falta de conhecimento sobre as implicações legais e o peso processual de uma acusação no âmbito da Lei Maria da Penha podem deixá-los vulneráveis. A presença de marcas físicas, mesmo que consentidas, pode ser usada como evidência de agressão, invertendo o ônus da prova na prática, ainda que não na teoria jurídica.

Estratégias de Prevenção e Mitigação

Não existe um método infalível para evitar completamente o risco de uma falsa acusação, mas diversas medidas podem ser adotadas para construir um histórico de consentimento e reduzir vulnerabilidades:

1. Comunicação Explícita e Contínua: A base de qualquer prática BDSM segura é a comunicação constante. Negociar limites, desejos, palavras de segurança ("safewords") e expectativas antes, durante e depois das cenas é crucial. Manter registros dessas negociações (e-mails, mensagens, diários compartilhados) pode ser útil.

2. Documentação do Consentimento:

   • Contratos de Relacionamento/Cena: Embora a validade jurídica de "contratos BDSM" seja discutível no Brasil (não podem afastar normas de ordem pública), eles servem como forte evidência da intenção das partes, da negociação detalhada de limites e do consentimento informado. Devem ser claros, datados, assinados e, idealmente, reconhecidos em cartório (para prova de data e autenticidade das assinaturas).

   • Registros Audiovisuais: Gravar (com consentimento explícito para a gravação) discussões sobre consentimento e limites antes das cenas pode ser uma prova poderosa. Gravar as próprias cenas é mais complexo devido a questões de privacidade e potencial uso indevido, mas pode ser considerado em casos específicos, sempre com consentimento mútuo documentado para a gravação.

     Importante: a gravação deve ser com ciência da outra parte, para não configurar violação da intimidade (art. 5º, X, da Constituição Federal e art. 20 do Código Civil).

3. Testemunhas: Em alguns contextos de comunidade BDSM, a presença de terceiros de confiança durante negociações ou mesmo cenas pode servir como testemunho, embora isso possa alterar a dinâmica íntima do casal.

4. Estabelecimento Claro de Limites e Palavras de Segurança: Definir e respeitar rigorosamente os limites (o que é permitido, o que é proibido) e as palavras de segurança é fundamental. O desrespeito a uma palavra de segurança encerra o consentimento para aquele ato.
5. Avaliação Contínua do Consentimento: O consentimento não é um cheque em branco; ele deve ser entusiástico, contínuo e revogável a qualquer momento. Verificar o bem-estar do parceiro durante a cena ("check-ins") é essencial.
6. Discrição e Cuidado com Evidências Físicas: Ser discreto sobre a natureza do relacionamento pode evitar mal-entendidos externos. Após cenas que deixem marcas, é prudente que ambos os parceiros estejam cientes e de acordo, talvez documentando por fotos (com data) e uma nota sobre a consensualidade da prática que as gerou.
7. Aconselhamento Jurídico Preventivo: Consultar um advogado especializado em direito de família e criminal, com sensibilidade para dinâmicas de relacionamento alternativas, pode fornecer orientação personalizada sobre as melhores formas de documentar o consentimento e entender os riscos legais específicos.

Observações Importantes

• Nenhuma documentação substitui a necessidade de consentimento real, livre, informado e contínuo.
• A lei brasileira protege a "integridade física" e a "dignidade humana". Práticas que resultem em lesões graves ou que violem a dignidade de forma não consentida (ou com consentimento viciado) serão ilegais, independentemente de qualquer acordo prévio.
• Em caso de acusação, a existência de documentação robusta de consentimento não garante a absolvição, mas fortalece significativamente a defesa, ajudando a demonstrar a natureza consensual da relação e das práticas.

• A alegação de coação futura é particularmente difícil de prevenir apenas com documentos. Um histórico consistente de comunicação aberta (whatsapp/telegram/e-mails), respeito mútuo e ausência de dependência ou controle excessivo na relação pode ajudar a contextualizar a dinâmica como não coercitiva.

• Cuidado com Marcas Visíveis e Lesões Graves Práticas que resultam em hematomas severos ou lesões podem ser interpretadas como agressão, mesmo que consentidas. Evitar excessos protege não apenas a integridade física, mas também evita questionamentos legais futuros.

O que vem a ser consentimento viciado

No Direito, consentimento viciado é quando a pessoa concorda com algo, mas a vontade dela não é livre ou plena — ou seja, o consentimento existe formalmente, mas é defeituoso por alguma razão.

O Código Civil brasileiro (art. 138 a 165) define várias formas de vício de consentimento. As principais são:

Erro: A pessoa se engana sobre o que está consentindo. (Ex.: A pessoa acredita que vai participar de um jogo leve, mas na verdade é exposta a práticas pesadas.)

Dolo: A pessoa é enganada propositalmente para aceitar algo. (Ex.: Alguém mente sobre o que vai acontecer durante a prática.)

Coação: A pessoa é forçada ou ameaçada a consentir. (Ex.: "Se você não aceitar, eu termino com você" — pressão emocional forte pode ser vista como coação.)

Estado de perigo ou lesão: A pessoa aceita algo em situação de necessidade extrema ou abuso de sua vulnerabilidade. (Ex.: Alguém em situação emocional muito fragilizada é induzida a aceitar práticas que normalmente recusaria.)

No contexto de BDSM, isso é ainda mais delicado: Mesmo que a pessoa tenha "assinado" um contrato ou dito "sim", se depois ela alegar que seu consentimento foi dado sob medo, engano ou pressão psicológica, o consentimento pode ser considerado viciado — e, portanto, juridicamente inválido.

Isso tem duas implicações sérias:

1. O crime não se descaracteriza: Se houver vício, o consentimento é ignorado e a prática pode ser tratada como crime normal (lesão corporal, estupro, tortura, etc.).

2. A prova do consentimento precisa ser sólida: Mostrando que a pessoa estava informada, lúcida, livre e sem qualquer tipo de coação.

   Consentimento viciado é quando a pessoa concorda formalmente, mas de maneira enganada, forçada ou pressionada, tornando o consentimento inútil para efeitos jurídicos.

Conclusão

Casais que praticam BDSM consensual no Brasil navegam em um terreno que exige não apenas confiança mútua e comunicação excepcional, mas também uma consciência aguçada das complexidades legais e dos riscos de interpretações equivocadas ou acusações mal-intencionadas. Embora o BDSM seja uma expressão legítima da sexualidade humana, sua prática no Brasil exige responsabilidade redobrada. Ter provas claras de consentimento, manter a comunicação aberta e agir com prudência são formas eficazes de se proteger de falsas alegações e preservar a liberdade e a segurança de todos os envolvidos. Embora leis controversas como a Maria da Penha sejam "vitais" para a proteção contra a violência real, os praticantes de BDSM, e em particular os homens nesse contexto, devem adotar uma postura proativa e prudente para mitigar os riscos inerentes à potencial má interpretação ou instrumentalização dessas práticas e leis, garantindo que a expressão de sua consensualidade esteja resguardada na medida do possível.

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Importante: No Brasil, mesmo com tudo isso, o Ministério Público pode denunciar por crime como lesão corporal grave, estupro ou tortura, independente de consentimento. Então a prudência nas práticas é fundamental.

Aviso Legal: Este artigo tem caráter meramente informativo e não constitui aconselhamento jurídico. As leis e interpretações podem mudar, e cada situação é única. Recomenda-se buscar orientação de um advogado qualificado para discutir casos específicos.

Se curtiu este artigo faça uma contribuição, se tiver algum ponto relevante para o artigo deixe seu comentário.

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Viewing Bitcoin Through the Light of Awakening

Ankh & Ohm Capital’s Overview of the Psycho-Spiritual Nature of Bitcoin

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Glossary:

I. Preface: The Logos of Our Logo

II. An Oracular Introduction

III. Alchemizing Greed

IV. Layers of Fractalized Thought

V. Permissionless Individuation

VI. Dispelling Paradox Through Resonance

VII. Ego Deflation

VIII. The Coin of Great Price

Preface: The Logos of Our Logo

Before we offer our lens on Bitcoin, it’s important to illuminate the meaning behind Ankh & Ohm’s name and symbol. These elements are not ornamental—they are foundational, expressing the cosmological principles that guide our work.

Our mission is to bridge the eternal with the practical. As a Bitcoin-focused family office and consulting firm, we understand capital not as an end, but as a tool—one that, when properly aligned, becomes a vehicle for divine order. We see Bitcoin not simply as a technological innovation but as an emanation of the Divine Logos—a harmonic expression of truth, transparency, and incorruptible structure. Both the beginning and the end, the Alpha and Omega.

The Ankh (☥), an ancient symbol of eternal life, is a key to the integration of opposites. It unites spirit and matter, force and form, continuity and change. It reminds us that capital, like Life, must not only be generative, but regenerative; sacred. Money must serve Life, not siphon from it.

The Ohm (Ω) holds a dual meaning. In physics, it denotes a unit of electrical resistance—the formative tension that gives energy coherence. In the Vedic tradition, Om (ॐ) is the primordial vibration—the sound from which all existence unfolds. Together, these symbols affirm a timeless truth: resistance and resonance are both sacred instruments of the Creator.

Ankh & Ohm, then, represents our striving for union, for harmony —between the flow of life and intentional structure, between incalculable abundance and measured restraint, between the lightbulb’s electrical impulse and its light-emitting filament. We stand at the threshold where intention becomes action, and where capital is not extracted, but cultivated in rhythm with the cosmos. 

We exist to shepherd this transformation, as guides of this threshold —helping families, founders, and institutions align with a deeper order, where capital serves not as the prize, but as a pathway to collective Presence, Purpose, Peace and Prosperity.

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An Oracular Introduction

Bitcoin is commonly understood as the first truly decentralized and secure form of digital money—a breakthrough in monetary sovereignty. But this view, while technically correct, is incomplete and spiritually shallow. Bitcoin is more than a tool for economic disruption. Bitcoin represents a mythic threshold: a symbol of the psycho-spiritual shift that many ancient traditions have long foretold.

For millennia, sages and seers have spoken of a coming Golden Age. In the Vedic Yuga cycles, in Plato’s Great Year, in the Eagle and Condor prophecies of the Americas—there exists a common thread: that humanity will emerge from darkness into a time of harmony, cooperation, and clarity. That the veil of illusion (maya, materiality) will thin, and reality will once again become transparent to the transcendent. In such an age, systems based on scarcity, deception, and centralization fall away. A new cosmology takes root—one grounded in balance, coherence, and sacred reciprocity.

But we must ask—how does such a shift happen? How do we cross from the age of scarcity, fear, and domination into one of coherence, abundance, and freedom?

One possible answer lies in the alchemy of incentive.

Bitcoin operates not just on the rules of computer science or Austrian economics, but on something far more old and subtle: the logic of transformation. It transmutes greed—a base instinct rooted in scarcity—into cooperation, transparency, and incorruptibility.

In this light, Bitcoin becomes more than code—it becomes a psychoactive protocol, one that rewires human behavior by aligning individual gain with collective integrity. It is not simply a new form of money. It is a new myth of value. A new operating system for human consciousness.

Bitcoin does not moralize. It harmonizes. It transforms the instinct for self-preservation into a pathway for planetary coherence.

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Alchemizing Greed

At the heart of Bitcoin lies the ancient alchemical principle of transmutation: that which is base may be refined into gold.

Greed, long condemned as a vice, is not inherently evil. It is a distorted longing. A warped echo of the drive to preserve life. But in systems built on scarcity and deception, this longing calcifies into hoarding, corruption, and decay.

Bitcoin introduces a new game. A game with memory. A game that makes deception inefficient and truth profitable. It does not demand virtue—it encodes consequence. Its design does not suppress greed; it reprograms it.

In traditional models, game theory often illustrates the fragility of trust. The Prisoner’s Dilemma reveals how self-interest can sabotage collective well-being. But Bitcoin inverts this. It creates an environment where self-interest and integrity converge—where the most rational action is also the most truthful.

Its ledger, immutable and transparent, exposes manipulation for what it is: energetically wasteful and economically self-defeating. Dishonesty burns energy and yields nothing. The network punishes incoherence, not by decree, but by natural law.

This is the spiritual elegance of Bitcoin: it does not suppress greed—it transmutes it. It channels the drive for personal gain into the architecture of collective order. Miners compete not to dominate, but to validate. Nodes collaborate not through trust, but through mathematical proof.

This is not austerity. It is alchemy.

Greed, under Bitcoin, is refined. Tempered. Re-forged into a generative force—no longer parasitic, but harmonic.

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Layers of Fractalized Thought Fragments

All living systems are layered. So is the cosmos. So is the human being. So is a musical scale.

At its foundation lies the timechain—the pulsing, incorruptible record of truth. Like the heart, it beats steadily. Every block, like a pulse, affirms its life through continuity. The difficulty adjustment—Bitcoin’s internal calibration—functions like heart rate variability, adapting to pressure while preserving coherence.

Above this base layer is the Lightning Network—a second layer facilitating rapid, efficient transactions. It is the nervous system: transmitting energy, reducing latency, enabling real-time interaction across a distributed whole.

Beyond that, emerging tools like Fedimint and Cashu function like the capillaries—bringing vitality to the extremities, to those underserved by legacy systems. They empower the unbanked, the overlooked, the forgotten. Privacy and dignity in the palms of those the old system refused to see.

And then there is NOSTR—the decentralized protocol for communication and creation. It is the throat chakra, the vocal cords of the “freedom-tech” body. It reclaims speech from the algorithmic overlords, making expression sovereign once more. It is also the reproductive system, as it enables the propagation of novel ideas and protocols in fertile, uncensorable soil.

Each layer plays its part. Not in hierarchy, but in harmony. In holarchy. Bitcoin and other open source protocols grow not through exogenous command, but through endogenous coherence. Like cells in an organism. Like a song.

Imagine the cell as a piece of glass from a shattered holographic plate —by which its perspectival, moving image can be restructured from the single shard. DNA isn’t only a logical script of base pairs, but an evolving progressive song. Its lyrics imbued with wise reflections on relationships.  The nucleus sings, the cell responds—not by command, but by memory. Life is not imposed; it is expressed. A reflection of a hidden pattern.

Bitcoin chants this. Each node, a living cell, holds the full timechain—Truth distributed, incorruptible. Remove one, and the whole remains. This isn’t redundancy. It’s a revelation on the power of protection in Truth.

Consensus is communion. Verification becomes a sacred rite—Truth made audible through math. 

Not just the signal; the song. A web of self-expression woven from Truth.

No center, yet every point alive with the whole. Like Indra’s Net, each reflects all. This is more than currency and information exchange. It is memory; a self-remembering Mind, unfolding through consensus and code. A Mind reflecting the Truth of reality at the speed of thought.

Heuristics are mental shortcuts—efficient, imperfect, alive. Like cells, they must adapt or decay. To become unbiased is to have self-balancing heuristics which carry feedback loops within them: they listen to the environment, mutate when needed, and survive by resonance with reality. Mutation is not error, but evolution. Its rules are simple, but their expression is dynamic. 

What persists is not rigidity, but pattern. 

To think clearly is not necessarily to be certain, but to dissolve doubt by listening, adjusting, and evolving thought itself.

To understand Bitcoin is simply to listen—patiently, clearly, as one would to a familiar rhythm returning.

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Permissionless Individuation

Bitcoin is a path. One that no one can walk for you.

Said differently, it is not a passive act. It cannot be spoon-fed. Like a spiritual path, it demands initiation, effort, and the willingness to question inherited beliefs.

Because Bitcoin is permissionless, no one can be forced to adopt it. One must choose to engage it—compelled by need, interest, or intuition. Each person who embarks undergoes their own version of the hero’s journey.

Carl Jung called this process Individuation—the reconciliation of fragmented psychic elements into a coherent, mature Self. Bitcoin mirrors this: it invites individuals to confront the unconscious assumptions of the fiat paradigm, and to re-integrate their relationship to time, value, and agency.

In Western traditions—alchemy, Christianity, Kabbalah—the individual is sacred, and salvation is personal. In Eastern systems—Daoism, Buddhism, the Vedas—the self is ultimately dissolved into the cosmic whole. Bitcoin, in a paradoxical way, echoes both: it empowers the individual, while aligning them with a holistic, transcendent order.

To truly see Bitcoin is to allow something false to die. A belief. A habit. A self-concept.

In that death—a space opens for deeper connection with the Divine itSelf. 

In that dissolution, something luminous is reborn. 

After the passing, Truth becomes resurrected.  

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Dispelling Paradox Through Resonance

There is a subtle paradox encoded into the hero’s journey: each starts in solidarity, yet the awakening affects the collective.

No one can be forced into understanding Bitcoin. Like a spiritual truth, it must be seen. And yet, once seen, it becomes nearly impossible to unsee—and easier for others to glimpse. The pattern catches.

This phenomenon mirrors the concept of morphic resonance, as proposed and empirically tested by biologist Rupert Sheldrake. Once a critical mass of individuals begins to embody a new behavior or awareness, it becomes easier—instinctive—for others to follow suit. Like the proverbial hundredth monkey who begins to wash the fruit in the sea water, and suddenly, monkeys across islands begin doing the same—without ever meeting.

When enough individuals embody a pattern, it ripples outward. Not through propaganda, but through field effect and wave propagation. It becomes accessible, instinctive, familiar—even across great distance.

Bitcoin spreads in this way. Not through centralized broadcast, but through subtle resonance. Each new node, each individual who integrates the protocol into their life, strengthens the signal for others. The protocol doesn’t shout; it hums, oscillates and vibrates——persistently, coherently, patiently.

One awakens. Another follows. The current builds. What was fringe becomes familiar. What was radical becomes obvious.

This is the sacred geometry of spiritual awakening. One awakens, another follows, and soon the fluidic current is strong enough to carry the rest. One becomes two, two become many, and eventually the many become One again. This tessellation reverberates through the human aura, not as ideology, but as perceivable pattern recognition.

Bitcoin’s most powerful marketing tool is truth. Its most compelling evangelist is reality. Its most unstoppable force is resonance.

Therefore, Bitcoin is not just financial infrastructure—it is psychic scaffolding. It is part of the subtle architecture through which new patterns of coherence ripple across the collective field. 

The training wheels from which humanity learns to embody Peace and Prosperity.

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Ego Deflation

The process of awakening is not linear, and its beginning is rarely gentle—it usually begins with disruption, with ego inflation and destruction.

To individuate is to shape a center; to recognize peripherals and create boundaries—to say, “I am.” But without integration, the ego tilts—collapsing into void or inflating into noise. Fiat reflects this pathology: scarcity hoarded, abundance simulated. Stagnation becomes disguised as safety, and inflation masquerades as growth.

In other words, to become whole, the ego must first rise—claiming agency, autonomy, and identity. However, when left unbalanced, it inflates, or implodes. It forgets its context. It begins to consume rather than connect. And so the process must reverse: what inflates must deflate.

In the fiat paradigm, this inflation is literal. More is printed, and ethos is diluted. Savings decay. Meaning erodes. Value is abstracted. The economy becomes bloated with inaudible noise. And like the psyche that refuses to confront its own shadow, it begins to collapse under the weight of its own illusions.

But under Bitcoin, time is honored. Value is preserved. Energy is not abstracted but grounded.

Bitcoin is inherently deflationary—in both economic and spiritual senses. With a fixed supply, it reveals what is truly scarce. Not money, not status—but the finite number of heartbeats we each carry.

To see Bitcoin is to feel that limit in one’s soul. To hold Bitcoin is to feel Time’s weight again. To sense the importance of Bitcoin is to feel the value of preserved, potential energy. It is to confront the reality that what matters cannot be printed, inflated, or faked. In this way, Bitcoin gently confronts the ego—not through punishment, but through clarity.

Deflation, rightly understood, is not collapse—it is refinement. It strips away illusion, bloat, and excess. It restores the clarity of essence.

Spiritually, this is liberation.

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The Coin of Great Price

There is an ancient parable told by a wise man:

“The kingdom of heaven is like a merchant seeking fine pearls, who, upon finding one of great price, sold all he had and bought it.”

Bitcoin is such a pearl.

But the ledger is more than a chest full of treasure. It is a key to the heart of things.

It is not just software—it is sacrament.

A symbol of what cannot be corrupted. A mirror of divine order etched into code. A map back to the sacred center.

It reflects what endures. It encodes what cannot be falsified. It remembers what we forgot: that Truth, when aligned with form, becomes Light once again.

Its design is not arbitrary. It speaks the language of life itself— 

The elliptic orbits of the planets mirrored in its cryptography,

The logarithmic spiral of the nautilus shell discloses its adoption rate,

The interconnectivity of mycelium in soil reflect the network of nodes in cyberspace, 

A webbed breadth of neurons across synaptic space fires with each new confirmed transaction.

It is geometry in devotion. Stillness in motion.

It is the Logos clothed in protocol.

What this key unlocks is beyond external riches. It is the eternal gold within us.

Clarity. Sovereignty. The unshakeable knowing that what is real cannot be taken. That what is sacred was never for sale.

Bitcoin is not the destination.

It is the Path.

And we—when we are willing to see it—are the Temple it leads back to.

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

n an inflationary system, the goal is often just to keep up.

With prices always rising, most of us are stuck in a race:\ Earn more to afford more.\ Spend before your money loses value.\ Monetize everything just to stay ahead of the curve.

Work becomes reactive.\ You hustle to outrun rising costs.\ You take on projects you don’t believe in just to make next month’s bills.\ Money decays. So you move faster, invest riskier, and burn out quicker.

But what happens when the curve flips?

A deflationary economy—like the one Bitcoin makes possible—rewards stillness, reflection, and intentionality.

Time favors the saver, not the spender.\ Money gains purchasing power.\ You’re no longer punished for patience.

You don’t have to convert your energy into cash before it loses value.\ You don’t have to be always on.\ You can actually afford to wait for the right work.

And when you do work—it means more.

💡 The “bullshit jobs” David Graeber wrote about start to disappear.\ There’s no need to look busy just to justify your existence.\ There’s no reward for parasitic middle layers.\ Instead, value flows to real craft, real care, and real proof of work—philosophically and literally.

So what does a job look like in that world?

— A farmer building soil instead of chasing subsidies.\ — An engineer optimizing for simplicity instead of speed.\ — A craftsman making one perfect table instead of ten cheap ones.\ — A writer telling the truth without clickbait.\ — A builder who says no more than they say yes.

You choose work that endures—not because it pays instantly, but because it’s worth doing.

The deflationary future isn’t a fantasy.\ It’s a recalibration.

It’s not about working less.\ It’s about working better.

That’s what Bitcoin taught me.\ That’s what I’m trying to live now.

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🟠 If you’re trying to align your work with these values, I’d love to connect.\ Zap this post, reply with your story, or follow along as I build—without permission, but with conviction.\ [https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

如果比特币发明了真正的钱，那么 Crypto 是什么？

引言

比特币诞生之初就以“数字黄金”姿态示人，被支持者誉为人类历史上第一次发明了真正意义上的钱——一种不依赖国家信用、总量恒定且不可篡改的硬通货。然而十多年过去，比特币之后蓬勃而起的加密世界（Crypto）已经远超“货币”范畴：从智能合约平台到去中心组织，从去央行的稳定币到戏谑荒诞的迷因币，Crypto 演化出一个丰富而混沌的新生态。这不禁引发一个根本性的追问：如果说比特币解决了“真金白银”的问题，那么 Crypto 又完成了什么发明？

Crypto 与政治的碰撞：随着Crypto版图扩张，全球政治势力也被裹挟进这场金融变革洪流（示意图）。比特币的出现重塑了货币信用，但Crypto所引发的却是一场更深刻的政治与治理结构实验。从华尔街到华盛顿，从散户论坛到主权国家，越来越多人意识到：Crypto不只是技术或金融现象，而是一种全新的政治表达结构正在萌芽。正如有激进论者所断言的：“比特币发明了真正的钱，而Crypto则在发明新的政治。”价格K线与流动性曲线，或许正成为这个时代社群意志和社会价值观的新型投射。

冲突结构：当价格挑战选票

传统政治中，选票是人民意志的载体，一人一票勾勒出民主治理的正统路径。而在链上的加密世界里，骤升骤降的价格曲线和真金白银的买卖行为却扮演起了选票的角色：资金流向成了民意走向，市场多空成为立场表决。价格行为取代选票，这听来匪夷所思，却已在Crypto社群中成为日常现实。每一次代币的抛售与追高，都是社区对项目决策的即时“投票”；每一根K线的涨跌，都折射出社区意志的赞同或抗议。市场行为本身承担了决策权与象征权——价格即政治，正在链上蔓延。

这一新生政治形式与旧世界的民主机制形成了鲜明冲突。bitcoin.org中本聪在比特币白皮书中提出“一CPU一票”的工作量证明共识，用算力投票取代了人为决策bitcoin.org。而今，Crypto更进一步，用资本市场的涨跌来取代传统政治的选举。支持某项目？直接购入其代币推高市值；反对某提案？用脚投票抛售资产。相比漫长的选举周期和层层代议制，链上市场提供了近乎实时的“公投”机制。但这种机制也引发巨大争议：资本的投票天然偏向持币多者（富者）的意志，是否意味着加密政治更为金权而非民权？持币多寡成为影响力大小，仿佛选举演变成了“一币一票”，巨鲸富豪俨然掌握更多话语权。这种与民主平等原则的冲突，成为Crypto政治形式饱受质疑的核心张力之一。

尽管如此，我们已经目睹市场投票在Crypto世界塑造秩序的威力：2016年以太坊因DAO事件分叉时，社区以真金白银“投票”决定了哪条链获得未来。arkhamintelligence.com结果是新链以太坊（ETH）成为主流，其市值一度超过2,800亿美元，而坚持原则的以太经典（ETC）市值不足35亿美元，不及前者的八十分之一arkhamintelligence.com。市场选择清楚地昭示了社区的政治意志。同样地，在比特币扩容之争、各类硬分叉博弈中，无不是由投资者和矿工用资金与算力投票，胜者存续败者黯然。价格成为裁决纷争的最终选票，冲击着传统“选票决胜”的政治理念。Crypto的价格民主，与现代代议民主正面相撞，激起当代政治哲思中前所未有的冲突火花。

治理与分配

XRP对决SEC成为了加密世界“治理与分配”冲突的经典战例。2020年底，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）突然起诉Ripple公司，指控其发行的XRP代币属于未注册证券，消息一出直接引爆市场恐慌。XRP价格应声暴跌，一度跌去超过60%，最低触及0.21美元coindesk.com。曾经位居市值前三的XRP险些被打入谷底，监管的强硬姿态似乎要将这个项目彻底扼杀。

然而XRP社区没有选择沉默。 大批长期持有者组成了自称“XRP军团”（XRP Army）的草根力量，在社交媒体上高调声援Ripple，对抗监管威胁。面对SEC的指控，他们集体发声，质疑政府选择性执法，声称以太坊当年发行却“逍遥法外”，只有Ripple遭到不公对待coindesk.com。正如《福布斯》的评论所言：没人预料到愤怒的加密散户投资者会掀起法律、政治和社交媒体领域的‘海啸式’反击，痛斥监管机构背弃了保护投资者的承诺crypto-law.us。这种草根抵抗监管的话语体系迅速形成：XRP持有者不但在网上掀起舆论风暴，还采取实际行动向SEC施压。他们发起了请愿，抨击SEC背离保护投资者初衷、诉讼给个人投资者带来巨大伤害，号召停止对Ripple的上诉纠缠——号称这是在捍卫全球加密用户的共同利益bitget.com。一场由民间主导的反监管运动就此拉开帷幕。

Ripple公司则选择背水一战，拒绝和解，在法庭上与SEC针锋相对地鏖战了近三年之久。Ripple坚称XRP并非证券，不应受到SEC管辖，即使面临沉重法律费用和业务压力也不妥协。2023年，这场持久战迎来了标志性转折：美国法庭作出初步裁决，认定XRP在二级市场的流通不构成证券coindesk.com。这一胜利犹如给沉寂已久的XRP注入强心针——消息公布当天XRP价格飙涨近一倍，盘中一度逼近1美元大关coindesk.com。沉重监管阴影下苟延残喘的项目，凭借司法层面的突破瞬间重获生机。这不仅是Ripple的胜利，更被支持者视为整个加密行业对SEC强权的一次胜仗。

XRP的对抗路线与某些“主动合规”的项目形成了鲜明对比。 稳定币USDC的发行方Circle、美国最大合规交易所Coinbase等选择了一条迎合监管的道路：它们高调拥抱现行法规，希望以合作换取生存空间。然而现实却给了它们沉重一击。USDC稳定币在监管风波中一度失去美元锚定，哪怕Circle及时披露储备状况也无法阻止恐慌蔓延，大批用户迅速失去信心，短时间内出现数十亿美元的赎回潮blockworks.co。Coinbase则更为直接：即便它早已注册上市、反复向监管示好，2023年仍被SEC指控为未注册证券交易所reuters.com，卷入漫长诉讼漩涡。可见，在迎合监管的策略下，这些机构非但未能换来监管青睐，反而因官司缠身或用户流失而丧失市场信任。 相比之下，XRP以对抗求生存的路线反而赢得了投资者的眼光：价格的涨跌成为社区投票的方式，抗争的勇气反过来强化了市场对它的信心。

同样引人深思的是另一种迥异的治理路径：技术至上的链上治理。 以MakerDAO为代表的去中心化治理模式曾被寄予厚望——MKR持币者投票决策、算法维持稳定币Dai的价值，被视为“代码即法律”的典范。然而，这套纯技术治理在市场层面却未能形成广泛认同，亦无法激发群体性的情绪动员。复杂晦涩的机制使得普通投资者难以参与其中，MakerDAO的治理讨论更多停留在极客圈子内部，在社会大众的政治对话中几乎听不见它的声音。相比XRP对抗监管所激发的铺天盖地关注，MakerDAO的治理实验显得默默无闻、难以“出圈”。这也说明，如果一种治理实践无法连接更广泛的利益诉求和情感共鸣，它在社会政治层面就难以形成影响力。

XRP之争的政治象征意义由此凸显： 它展示了一条“以市场对抗国家”的斗争路线，即通过代币价格的集体行动来回应监管权力的施压。在这场轰动业界的对决中，价格即是抗议的旗帜，涨跌映射着政治立场。XRP对SEC的胜利被视作加密世界向旧有权力宣告的一次胜利：资本市场的投票器可以撼动监管者的强权。这种“价格即政治”的张力，正是Crypto世界前所未有的社会实验：去中心化社区以市场行为直接对抗国家权力，在无形的价格曲线中凝聚起政治抗争的力量，向世人昭示加密货币不仅有技术和资本属性，更蕴含着不可小觑的社会能量和政治意涵。

不可归零的政治资本

Meme 币的本质并非廉价或易造，而在于其构建了一种“无法归零”的社群生存结构。 对于传统观点而言，多数 meme 币只是短命的投机游戏：价格暴涨暴跌后一地鸡毛，创始人套现跑路，投资者血本无归，然后“大家转去炒下一个”theguardian.com。然而，meme 币社群的独特之处在于——失败并不意味着终结，而更像是运动的逗号而非句号。一次币值崩盘后，持币的草根们往往并未散去；相反，他们汲取教训，准备东山再起。这种近乎“不死鸟”的循环，使得 meme 币运动呈现出一种数字政治循环的特质：价格可以归零，但社群的政治热情和组织势能不归零。正如研究者所指出的，加密领域中的骗局、崩盘等冲击并不会摧毁生态，反而成为让系统更加强韧的“健康应激”，令整个行业在动荡中变得更加反脆弱cointelegraph.com。对应到 meme 币，每一次暴跌和重挫，都是社群自我进化、卷土重来的契机。这个去中心化群体打造出一种自组织的安全垫，失败者得以在瓦砾上重建家园。对于草根社群、少数派乃至体制的“失败者”而言，meme 币提供了一个永不落幕的抗争舞台，一种真正反脆弱的政治性。正因如此，我们看到诸多曾被嘲笑的迷因项目屡败屡战：例如 Dogecoin 自2013年问世后历经八年沉浮，早已超越玩笑属性，成为互联网史上最具韧性的迷因之一frontiersin.org；支撑 Dogecoin 的正是背后强大的迷因文化和社区意志，它如同美国霸权支撑美元一样，为狗狗币提供了“永不中断”的生命力frontiersin.org。

“复活权”的数字政治意涵

这种“失败-重生”的循环结构蕴含着深刻的政治意涵：在传统政治和商业领域，一个政党选举失利或一家公司破产往往意味着清零出局，资源散尽、组织瓦解。然而在 meme 币的世界，社群拥有了一种前所未有的“复活权”。当项目崩盘，社区并不必然随之消亡，而是可以凭借剩余的人心和热情卷土重来——哪怕换一个 token 名称，哪怕重启一条链，运动依然延续。正如 Cheems 项目的核心开发者所言，在几乎无人问津、技术受阻的困境下，大多数人可能早已卷款走人，但 “CHEEMS 社区没有放弃，背景、技术、风投都不重要，重要的是永不言弃的精神”cointelegraph.com。这种精神使得Cheems项目起死回生，社区成员齐声宣告“我们都是 CHEEMS”，共同书写历史cointelegraph.com。与传统依赖风投和公司输血的项目不同，Cheems 完全依靠社区的信念与韧性存续发展，体现了去中心化运动的真谛cointelegraph.com。这意味着政治参与的门槛被大大降低：哪怕没有金主和官方背书，草根也能凭借群体意志赋予某个代币新的生命。对于身处社会边缘的群体来说，meme 币俨然成为自组织的安全垫和重新集结的工具。难怪有学者指出，近期涌入meme币浪潮的主力，正是那些对现实失望但渴望改变命运的年轻人theguardian.com——“迷茫的年轻人，想要一夜暴富”theguardian.com。meme币的炒作表面上看是投机赌博，但背后蕴含的是草根对既有金融秩序的不满与反抗：没有监管和护栏又如何？一次失败算不得什么，社区自有后路和新方案。这种由底层群众不断试错、纠错并重启的过程，本身就是一种数字时代的新型反抗运动和群众动员机制。

举例而言，Terra Luna 的沉浮充分展现了这种“复活机制”的政治力量。作为一度由风投资本热捧的项目，Luna 币在2022年的崩溃本可被视作“归零”的失败典范——稳定币UST瞬间失锚，Luna币价归零，数十亿美元灰飞烟灭。然而“崩盘”并没有画下休止符。Luna的残余社区拒绝承认失败命运，通过链上治理投票毅然启动新链，“复活”了 Luna 代币，再次回到市场交易reuters.com。正如 Terra 官方在崩盘后发布的推文所宣称：“我们力量永在社区，今日的决定正彰显了我们的韧性”reuters.com。事实上，原链更名为 Luna Classic 后，大批所谓“LUNC 军团”的散户依然死守阵地，誓言不离不弃；他们自发烧毁巨量代币以缩减供应、推动技术升级，试图让这个一度归零的项目重新燃起生命之火binance.com。失败者并未散场，而是化作一股草根洪流，奋力托举起项目的残迹。经过迷因化的叙事重塑，这场从废墟中重建价值的壮举，成为加密世界中草根政治的经典一幕。类似的案例不胜枚举：曾经被视为笑话的 DOGE（狗狗币）正因多年社群的凝聚而跻身主流币种，总市值一度高达数百亿美元，充分证明了“民有民享”的迷因货币同样可以笑傲市场frontiersin.org。再看最新的美国政治舞台，连总统特朗普也推出了自己的 meme 币 $TRUMP，号召粉丝拿真金白银来表达支持。该币首日即从7美元暴涨至75美元，两天后虽回落到40美元左右，但几乎同时，第一夫人 Melania 又发布了自己的 $Melania 币，甚至连就职典礼的牧师都跟风发行了纪念币theguardian.com！显然，对于狂热的群众来说，一个币的沉浮并非终点，而更像是运动的换挡——资本市场成为政治参与的新前线，你方唱罢我登场，meme 币的群众动员热度丝毫不减。值得注意的是，2024年出现的 Pump.fun 等平台更是进一步降低了这一循环的技术门槛，任何人都可以一键生成自己的 meme 币theguardian.com。这意味着哪怕某个项目归零，剩余的社区完全可以借助此类工具迅速复制一个新币接力，延续集体行动的火种。可以说，在 meme 币的世界里，草根社群获得了前所未有的再生能力和主动权，这正是一种数字时代的群众政治奇观：失败可以被当作梗来玩，破产能够变成重生的序章。

价格即政治：群众投机的新抗争

meme 币现象的兴盛表明：在加密时代，价格本身已成为一种政治表达。这些看似荒诞的迷因代币，将金融市场变成了群众宣泄情绪和诉求的另一个舞台。有学者将此概括为“将公民参与直接转化为了投机资产”cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.ca——也就是说，社会运动的热情被注入币价涨跌，政治支持被铸造成可以交易的代币。meme 币融合了金融、技术与政治，通过病毒般的迷因文化激发公众参与，形成对现实政治的某种映射cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.caosl.com。当一群草根投入全部热忱去炒作一枚毫无基本面支撑的币时，这本身就是一种大众政治动员的体现：币价暴涨，意味着一群人以戏谑的方式在向既有权威叫板；币价崩盘，也并不意味着信念的消亡，反而可能孕育下一次更汹涌的造势。正如有分析指出，政治类 meme 币的出现前所未有地将群众文化与政治情绪融入市场行情，价格曲线俨然成为民意和趋势的风向标cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.ca。在这种局面下，投机不再仅仅是逐利，还是一种宣示立场、凝聚共识的过程——一次次看似荒唐的炒作背后，是草根对传统体制的不服与嘲讽，是失败者拒绝认输的呐喊。归根结底，meme 币所累积的，正是一种不可被归零的政治资本。价格涨落之间，群众的愤怒、幽默与希望尽显其中；这股力量不因一次挫败而消散，反而在市场的循环中愈发壮大。也正因如此，我们才说“价格即政治”——在迷因币的世界里，价格不只是数字，更是人民政治能量的晴雨表，哪怕归零也终将卷土重来。cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.caosl.com

全球新兴现象：伊斯兰金融的入场

当Crypto在西方世界掀起市场治政的狂潮时，另一股独特力量也悄然融入这一场域：伊斯兰金融携其独特的道德秩序，开始在链上寻找存在感。长期以来，伊斯兰金融遵循着一套区别于世俗资本主义的原则：禁止利息（Riba）、反对过度投机（Gharar/Maysir）、强调实际资产支撑和道德投资。当这些原则遇上去中心化的加密技术，会碰撞出怎样的火花？出人意料的是，这两者竟在“以市场行为表达价值”这个层面产生了惊人的共鸣。伊斯兰金融并不拒绝市场机制本身，只是为其附加了道德准则；Crypto则将市场机制推向了政治高位，用价格来表达社群意志。二者看似理念迥异，实则都承认市场行为可以也应当承载社会价值观。这使得越来越多金融与政治分析人士开始关注：当虔诚的宗教伦理遇上狂野的加密市场，会塑造出何种新范式？

事实上，穆斯林世界已经在探索“清真加密”的道路。一些区块链项目致力于确保协议符合伊斯兰教法（Sharia）的要求。例如Haqq区块链发行的伊斯兰币（ISLM），从规则层面内置了宗教慈善义务——每发行新币即自动将10%拨入慈善DAO，用于公益捐赠，以符合天课（Zakat）的教义nasdaq.comnasdaq.com。同时，该链拒绝利息和赌博类应用，2022年还获得了宗教权威的教令（Fatwa）认可其合规性nasdaq.com。再看理念层面，伊斯兰经济学强调货币必须有内在价值、收益应来自真实劳动而非纯利息剥削。这一点与比特币的“工作量证明”精神不谋而合——有人甚至断言法定货币无锚印钞并不清真，而比特币这类需耗费能源生产的资产反而更符合教法初衷cointelegraph.com。由此，越来越多穆斯林投资者开始以道德投资的名义进入Crypto领域，将资金投向符合清真原则的代币和协议。

这种现象带来了微妙的双重合法性：一方面，Crypto世界原本奉行“价格即真理”的世俗逻辑，而伊斯兰金融为其注入了一股道德合法性，使部分加密资产同时获得了宗教与市场的双重背书；另一方面，即便在遵循宗教伦理的项目中，最终决定成败的依然是市场对其价值的认可。道德共识与市场共识在链上交汇，共同塑造出一种混合的新秩序。这一全球新兴现象引发广泛议论：有人将其视为金融民主化的极致表现——不同文化价值都能在市场平台上表达并竞争；也有人警惕这可能掩盖新的风险，因为把宗教情感融入高风险资产，既可能凝聚强大的忠诚度，也可能在泡沫破裂时引发信仰与财富的双重危机。但无论如何，伊斯兰金融的入场使Crypto的政治版图更加丰盈多元。从华尔街交易员到中东教士，不同背景的人们正通过Crypto这个奇特的舞台，对人类价值的表达方式进行前所未有的实验。

升华结语：价格即政治的新直觉

回顾比特币问世以来的这段历程，我们可以清晰地看到一条演进的主线：先有货币革命，后有政治发明。比特币赋予了人类一种真正自主的数字货币，而Crypto在此基础上完成的，则是一项前所未有的政治革新——它让市场价格行为承担起了类似政治选票的功能，开创了一种“价格即政治”的新直觉。在这个直觉下，市场不再只是冷冰冰的交易场所；每一次资本流动、每一轮行情涨落，都被赋予了社会意义和政治涵义。买入即表态，卖出即抗议，流动性的涌入或枯竭胜过千言万语的陈情。Crypto世界中，K线图俨然成为民意曲线，行情图就是政治晴雨表。决策不再由少数权力精英关起门来制定，而是在全球无眠的交易中由无数普通人共同谱写。这样的政治形式也许狂野，也许充满泡沫和噪音，但它不可否认地调动起了广泛的社会参与，让原本疏离政治进程的个体通过持币、交易重新找回了影响力的幻觉或实感。

“价格即政治”并非一句简单的口号，而是Crypto给予世界的全新想象力。它质疑了传统政治的正统性：如果一串代码和一群匿名投资者就能高效决策资源分配，我们为何还需要繁冗的官僚体系？它也拷问着自身的内在隐忧：当财富与权力深度绑定，Crypto政治如何避免堕入金钱统治的老路？或许，正是在这样的矛盾和张力中，人类政治的未来才会不断演化。Crypto所开启的，不仅是技术乌托邦或金融狂欢，更可能是一次对民主形式的深刻拓展和挑战。这里有最狂热的逐利者，也有最理想主义的社群塑梦者；有一夜暴富的神话，也有瞬间破灭的惨痛。而这一切汇聚成的洪流，正冲撞着工业时代以来既定的权力谱系。

当我们再次追问：Crypto究竟是什么？ 或许可以这样回答——Crypto是比特币之后，人类完成的一次政治范式的试验性跃迁。在这里，价格行为化身为选票，资本市场演化为广场，代码与共识共同撰写“社会契约”。这是一场仍在进行的文明实验：它可能无声地融入既有秩序，也可能剧烈地重塑未来规则。但无论结局如何，如今我们已经见证：在比特币发明真正的货币之后，Crypto正在发明真正属于21世纪的政治。它以数字时代的语言宣告：在链上，价格即政治，市场即民意，代码即法律。这，或许就是Crypto带给我们的最直观而震撼的本质启示。

参考资料：

• 中本聪. 比特币白皮书: 一种点对点的电子现金系统. (2008)bitcoin.org

• Arkham Intelligence. Ethereum vs Ethereum Classic: Understanding the Differences. (2023)arkhamintelligence.com

• Binance Square (@渔神的加密日记). 狗狗币价格为何上涨？背后的原因你知道吗？binance.com

• Cointelegraph中文. 特朗普的迷因币晚宴预期内容揭秘. (2025)cn.cointelegraph.com

• 慢雾科技 Web3Caff (@Lisa). 风险提醒：从 LIBRA 看“政治化”的加密货币骗局. (2025)web3caff.com

• Nasdaq (@Anthony Clarke). How Cryptocurrency Aligns with the Principles of Islamic Finance. (2023)nasdaq.comnasdaq.com

• Cointelegraph Magazine (@Andrew Fenton). DeFi can be halal but not DOGE? Decentralizing Islamic finance. (2023)cointelegraph.com

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test openletter redirection after creation

@ 47c860d3:b3f71b74

ไขความลับรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8: ศาสตร์แห่งการบีบอัดข้อมูลสื่อสารดิจิทัล คืนหนึ่ง ผมนั่งอยู่หน้าจอคอมพิวเตอร์ มองสัญญาณ FT8 กระพริบไปมา ส่งข้อความสั้นๆ ซ้ำไปซ้ำมา "CQ HS1IWX OK03" แล้วก็รอให้ใครสักคนตอบกลับ วนลูปไปอย่างไม่รู้จบ จนเกิดคำถามขึ้นมาในหัว... “นี่เรานั่งทำอะไรกันแน่?” FT8 มันควรเป็นอะไรมากกว่านี้ใช่ไหม? ไม่ใช่แค่การส่งคำสั้นๆ 13 ตัวอักษรไปมาเท่านั้น! เอ๊ะ! เดี๋ยวก่อน... 13 ตัวอักษร? ถ้าการส่งข้อความจำกัดที่ 13 ตัวอักษร แล้วทำไมข้อความอย่าง "CQ HS1IWX OK03" ซึ่งดูเหมือนจะมี 14 ตัวอักษร (รวมช่องว่าง) ถึงสามารถส่งได้? นี่มันต้องมีอะไรซ่อนอยู่! ระบบ FT8 ใช้เวทมนตร์อะไร หรือมันมีเทคนิคการเข้ารหัสแบบลับๆ ที่เรายังไม่รู้? และคำว่า "13 ตัวอักษร" ที่เขาพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึงอะไรกันแน่? แล้วลองนึกดูสิ... ถ้าเราอยู่ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน ต้องส่งข้อความที่สั้น กระชับ และมีความหมาย ในขณะที่แบตเตอรี่เหลือน้อย กำลังส่งต่ำ และอุปกรณ์มีเพียงเครื่องวิทยุขนาดเล็กกับสายอากาศชั่วคราวและมือถือ บางครั้ง FT8 อาจจะเป็นตัวเลือกเดียวที่ช่วยให้เราส่งสัญญาณขอความช่วยเหลือได้ เพราะมันสามารถถอดรหัสได้แม้สัญญาณอ่อนจนแทบจะมองไม่เห็น! ดังนั้น ผมต้องขุดลึกลงไป เพื่อไขความลับของรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8 และหาคำตอบว่า ทำไม FT8 สามารถส่งข้อความบางอย่างที่ดูเหมือนยาวเกินขีดจำกัดได้? พร้อมกับสำรวจว่ามันสามารถช่วยเหลือเราในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้อย่างไร! อะไรคือความหมายที่แท้จริงของ 13 ตัวอักษร ? เมื่อเริ่มเจาะลึกลงไป ผมจึงได้รู้ว่า 13 ตัวอักษรที่เราพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึง ข้อความใน Free Text Mode หรือก็คือ ข้อความที่ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสในรูปแบบมาตรฐานของ FT8 หากเราส่งข้อความแบบอิสระ เช่น "HELLO WORLD!" หรือ "EMERGENCY CALL" เราจะถูกจำกัดแค่ 13 ตัวอักษรเท่านั้น เพราะข้อความเหล่านี้ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสให้เหมาะสมกับโปรโตคอลของระบบ FT8 แต่ถ้าเป็น ข้อความมาตรฐานที่ถูกกำหนดรูปแบบไว้แล้ว เช่น Callsign + Grid หรือ รายงาน SNR (-10, 599, RR73) ระบบ FT8 จะใช้การเข้ารหัส 77-bit Structured Message ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถส่งข้อมูลได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร! อะไรคือ โครงสร้าง 77-bit Message ใน FT8 FT8 ใช้ 77 บิต สำหรับการเข้ารหัสข้อมูล โดยแบ่งออกเป็น 3 ส่วนหลัก: ส่วนของข้อมูล จำนวนบิต รายละเอียด Callsign 1 (ต้นทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีที่ส่ง Callsign 2 (ปลายทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีปลายทาง หรือ CQ Exchange Data 21 บิต Grid Locator หรือข้อมูลอื่น ๆ รวมทั้งหมด = 28 + 28 + 21 = 77 บิต การที่ FT8 ใช้โครงสร้างแบบนี้ ข้อความที่ถูกเข้ารหัสในมาตรฐาน FT8 จึงสามารถส่งได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร เช่น "CQ HS1IWX OK03" นั้นถูกเข้ารหัสให้อยู่ใน 77 บิต ไม่ใช่ Free Text แบบปกติ ทำให้สามารถส่งได้โดยไม่มีปัญหา! แต่ข้อสำคัญมันคือโปโตคอลของระบบ FT8 ในปัจจุบัน ถ้าเราต้องการ เข้ารหัสเองในรูปแบบของเราเราก็ต้องพัฒนาโปรแกรม FT8 ของเราเอง (ผมทำไม่เป็นครับ555) ก็ใช้ของเขาไปก็ได้ แล้วก็มาพัฒนาระบบ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร กันน่าจะสนุกกว่า ส่วนเรื่องรายละเอียดวิธีการเข้ารหัสผมคงไม่พูดถึงนะ เดี๋ยวจะวิชาการน่าเบื่อไปครับ ใครสนใจก็ไปศึกษาต่อกันเอาเองครับ การเข้ารหัสนี้จะใช้ร่วมกับเทคนิค FEC (Forward Error Correction) ใน FT8 ซึ่งเป็นหนึ่งในเทคนิคที่ทำให้ FT8 สามารถถอดรหัสข้อความได้แม้ในสภาวะสัญญาณอ่อน คือการใช้ Forward Error Correction (FEC) หรือ การแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดล่วงหน้า ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อมูลที่อาจเกิดการสูญหายในระหว่างการส่งสัญญาณได้ โดย FT8 ใช้ Reed-Solomon (RS) Error Correction Code ซึ่งเป็นอัลกอริธึมที่เพิ่มบิตสำรองเพื่อช่วยตรวจจับและแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดในข้อความที่ส่งไป และ ใช้ Convolutional Encoding และ Viterbi Decoding ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถแก้ไขข้อมูลที่ผิดพลาดจากสัญญาณรบกวนได้ ซึ่งเมื่อสัญญาณอ่อน ข้อมูลบางส่วนอาจสูญหาย แต่ FEC ช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อความได้แม้ข้อมูลบางส่วนจะขาดหาย ทำให้ผลลัพธ์คือ FT8 สามารถทำงานได้แม้ระดับสัญญาณต่ำถึง -20 dB! ซึ่งส่วนนี้ผมก็ยังไม่เข้าใจมันดีเท่าไหร่ครับ อิอิ ฟังเขามาอีกที สิ่งที่เราทำได้ตอนนี้ในโปรแกรม FT8 ในปัจจุบันก็คือ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษรถ้าเรา อยากส่งข้อความฉุกเฉินภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร ให้ได้ข้อมูลมากที่สุด เราต้องใช้เทคนิคต่อไปนี้: การใช้ตัวย่อและรหัสสากล • SOS 1234 BKK แทน "ขอความช่วยเหลือที่พิกัด 1234 ใกล้กรุงเทพ" • WX BKK T35C แทน "สภาพอากาศกรุงเทพ 35 องศา" • ALRT TSUNAMI แทน "เตือนภัยสึนามิ" ใช้ข้อความที่อ่านเข้าใจง่าย • ใช้โค้ดสั้นๆ เช่น "QRZ EMRG?" แทน "ใครรับสัญญาณฉุกเฉิน?" การส่งข้อความเป็นชุด • เฟรม 1: MSG1 BKK STORM1 • เฟรม 2: MSG2 BKK STORM2 • เฟรม 3: MSG3 BKK NOW “การฝึกฝนเพื่อทำความเข้าใจการสื่อสารเป็นสิ่งสำคัญ เพราะเมื่อได้รับข้อความเหล่านี้ เราจะสามารถถอดรหัสและติดตามข้อมูลได้อย่างทันท่วงที” ครั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพียงการค้นพบอีกด้านหนึ่งของ FT8… หรือมันอาจเปลี่ยนมุมมองของคุณที่มีต่อโหมดสื่อสารดิจิทัลไปตลอดกาลก็ได้ แต่เดี๋ยวก่อน—นี่มันอะไรกัน!? จู่ๆ บนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ของผมก็ปรากฏคอลซายที่ไม่คุ้นตา D1IFU—คอลซายที่ไม่มีอยู่ในฐานข้อมูลของ ITU แต่กลับปรากฏขึ้นบนคลื่นความถี่ของเรา D1…? มันมาได้ยังไง? แล้วทันใดนั้น ผมก็ฉุกคิดขึ้นมา—มันคือคอลซายจากพื้นที่ Donetsk หรือ Luhansk พื้นที่ที่เต็มไปด้วยความขัดแย้ง ดินแดนที่เราคิดว่าเงียบงันภายใต้เสียงระเบิดและความไม่แน่นอน แต่ตอนนี้ กลับมีสัญญาณเล็กๆ ปรากฏขึ้นบน FT8 มันคือใครกัน? เป็นทหาร? เป็นพลเรือนที่พยายามติดต่อโลกภายนอก? หรือเป็นเพียงนักวิทยุสมัครเล่นที่ยังคงเฝ้าฟังแม้โลกจะเต็มไปด้วยความวุ่นวาย? แต่สิ่งหนึ่งที่แน่ชัด… “นี่คือสัญญาณแห่งชีวิต” จบข่าว. 🚀📡

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Most nematodes are beneficial and "graze" on black vine weevil, currant borer moth, fungus gnats, other weevils, scarabs, cutworms, webworms, billbugs, mole crickets, termites, peach tree borer and carpenter worm moths.

They also predate bacteria, recycling nutrients back into the soil and by doing so stimulates bacterial activity. They act as microbial taxis by transporting microbes to new locations of soil as they move through it while providing aeration.

https://stacker.news/items/988573

@ 40b9c85f:5e61b451

Introduction

Data Vending Machines (DVMs) have emerged as a crucial component of the Nostr ecosystem, offering specialized computational services to clients across the network. As defined in NIP-90, DVMs operate on an apparently simple principle: "data in, data out." They provide a marketplace for data processing where users request specific jobs (like text translation, content recommendation, or AI text generation)

While DVMs have gained significant traction, the current specification faces challenges that hinder widespread adoption and consistent implementation. This article explores some ideas on how we can apply the reflection pattern, a well established approach in RPC systems, to address these challenges and improve the DVM ecosystem's clarity, consistency, and usability.

The Current State of DVMs: Challenges and Limitations

The NIP-90 specification provides a broad framework for DVMs, but this flexibility has led to several issues:

1. Inconsistent Implementation

As noted by hzrd149 in "DVMs were a mistake" every DVM implementation tends to expect inputs in slightly different formats, even while ostensibly following the same specification. For example, a translation request DVM might expect an event ID in one particular format, while an LLM service could expect a "prompt" input that's not even specified in NIP-90.

2. Fragmented Specifications

The DVM specification reserves a range of event kinds (5000-6000), each meant for different types of computational jobs. While creating sub-specifications for each job type is being explored as a possible solution for clarity, in a decentralized and permissionless landscape like Nostr, relying solely on specification enforcement won't be effective for creating a healthy ecosystem. A more comprehensible approach is needed that works with, rather than against, the open nature of the protocol.

3. Ambiguous API Interfaces

There's no standardized way for clients to discover what parameters a specific DVM accepts, which are required versus optional, or what output format to expect. This creates uncertainty and forces developers to rely on documentation outside the protocol itself, if such documentation exists at all.

The Reflection Pattern: A Solution from RPC Systems

The reflection pattern in RPC systems offers a compelling solution to many of these challenges. At its core, reflection enables servers to provide metadata about their available services, methods, and data types at runtime, allowing clients to dynamically discover and interact with the server's API.

In established RPC frameworks like gRPC, reflection serves as a self-describing mechanism where services expose their interface definitions and requirements. In MCP reflection is used to expose the capabilities of the server, such as tools, resources, and prompts. Clients can learn about available capabilities without prior knowledge, and systems can adapt to changes without requiring rebuilds or redeployments. This standardized introspection creates a unified way to query service metadata, making tools like grpcurl possible without requiring precompiled stubs.

How Reflection Could Transform the DVM Specification

By incorporating reflection principles into the DVM specification, we could create a more coherent and predictable ecosystem. DVMs already implement some sort of reflection through the use of 'nip90params', which allow clients to discover some parameters, constraints, and features of the DVMs, such as whether they accept encryption, nutzaps, etc. However, this approach could be expanded to provide more comprehensive self-description capabilities.

1. Defined Lifecycle Phases

Similar to the Model Context Protocol (MCP), DVMs could benefit from a clear lifecycle consisting of an initialization phase and an operation phase. During initialization, the client and DVM would negotiate capabilities and exchange metadata, with the DVM providing a JSON schema containing its input requirements. nip-89 (or other) announcements can be used to bootstrap the discovery and negotiation process by providing the input schema directly. Then, during the operation phase, the client would interact with the DVM according to the negotiated schema and parameters.

2. Schema-Based Interactions

Rather than relying on rigid specifications for each job type, DVMs could self-advertise their schemas. This would allow clients to understand which parameters are required versus optional, what type validation should occur for inputs, what output formats to expect, and what payment flows are supported. By internalizing the input schema of the DVMs they wish to consume, clients gain clarity on how to interact effectively.

3. Capability Negotiation

Capability negotiation would enable DVMs to advertise their supported features, such as encryption methods, payment options, or specialized functionalities. This would allow clients to adjust their interaction approach based on the specific capabilities of each DVM they encounter.

Implementation Approach

While building DVMCP, I realized that the RPC reflection pattern used there could be beneficial for constructing DVMs in general. Since DVMs already follow an RPC style for their operation, and reflection is a natural extension of this approach, it could significantly enhance and clarify the DVM specification.

A reflection enhanced DVM protocol could work as follows: 1. Discovery: Clients discover DVMs through existing NIP-89 application handlers, input schemas could also be advertised in nip-89 announcements, making the second step unnecessary. 2. Schema Request: Clients request the DVM's input schema for the specific job type they're interested in 3. Validation: Clients validate their request against the provided schema before submission 4. Operation: The job proceeds through the standard NIP-90 flow, but with clearer expectations on both sides

Parallels with Other Protocols

This approach has proven successful in other contexts. The Model Context Protocol (MCP) implements a similar lifecycle with capability negotiation during initialization, allowing any client to communicate with any server as long as they adhere to the base protocol. MCP and DVM protocols share fundamental similarities, both aim to expose and consume computational resources through a JSON-RPC-like interface, albeit with specific differences.

gRPC's reflection service similarly allows clients to discover service definitions at runtime, enabling generic tools to work with any gRPC service without prior knowledge. In the REST API world, OpenAPI/Swagger specifications document interfaces in a way that makes them discoverable and testable.

DVMs would benefit from adopting these patterns while maintaining the decentralized, permissionless nature of Nostr.

Conclusion

I am not attempting to rewrite the DVM specification; rather, explore some ideas that could help the ecosystem improve incrementally, reducing fragmentation and making the ecosystem more comprehensible. By allowing DVMs to self describe their interfaces, we could maintain the flexibility that makes Nostr powerful while providing the structure needed for interoperability.

For developers building DVM clients or libraries, this approach would simplify consumption by providing clear expectations about inputs and outputs. For DVM operators, it would establish a standard way to communicate their service's requirements without relying on external documentation.

I am currently developing DVMCP following these patterns. Of course, DVMs and MCP servers have different details; MCP includes capabilities such as tools, resources, and prompts on the server side, as well as 'roots' and 'sampling' on the client side, creating a bidirectional way to consume capabilities. In contrast, DVMs typically function similarly to MCP tools, where you call a DVM with an input and receive an output, with each job type representing a different categorization of the work performed.

Without further ado, I hope this article has provided some insight into the potential benefits of applying the reflection pattern to the DVM specification.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

This event has been deleted; your client is ignoring the delete request.

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

Yesterday, I faced one of the most heartbreaking and frustrating experiences of my life. Between 10:00 AM and 2:00 PM, I was held at the Taveta border, denied entry into Kenya—despite having all the necessary documents, including a valid visitor’s permit and an official invitation letter.

The Kenyan Immigration officers refused to speak with me. When I asked for clarification, I was told flatly that I would never be allowed to enter Kenya unless I obtain a work permit. No other reason was given. My attempts to explain that I simply wanted to see my child were ignored. No empathy. No flexibility. No conversation. Just rejection.

While I stood there for hours, held by officials with no explanation beyond a bureaucratic wall, I recorded the experience. I now have several hours of footage documenting what happened—a silent testimony to how a system can dehumanize and block basic rights.

And the situation doesn’t end at the border.

My child, born in Kenya, is also being denied the right to see me. Germany refuses to grant her citizenship, which means she cannot visit me either. The German embassy in Nairobi refuses to assist, stating they won’t get involved. Their silence is loud.

This is not just about paperwork. This is about a child growing up without her father. It’s about a system that chooses walls over bridges, and bureaucracy over humanity. Kenya, by refusing me entry, is keeping a father away from his child. Germany, by refusing to act under §13 StGB, is complicit in that injustice.

In the coming days, I’ll share more about my past travels and how this situation unfolded. I’ll also be releasing videos and updates on TikTok—because this story needs to be heard. Not just for me, but for every parent and child caught between borders and bureaucracies.

Stay tuned—and thank you for standing with me.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

บางครั้งพลังยิ่งใหญ่ที่สุดก็ไม่ใช่สิ่งที่เห็นได้ด้วยตาเปล่า เหมือนแสงแดดที่คนส่วนใหญ่มักจะกลัวเพราะกลัวผิวเสีย กลัวฝ้า กลัวร้อน แต่แท้จริงแล้วในแสงแดดมีบางสิ่งที่น่าเคารพอยู่ลึกๆ มันคือแสงที่มองไม่เห็น มันไม่แสบตา ไม่แสบผิว แต่มันลึก ถึงเซลล์ มันคือ “แสงอินฟราเรด” ที่ซ่อนตัวอย่างสุภาพในแดดยามเช้า

เฮียมักชอบพูดว่า แดดที่ดีไม่จำเป็นต้องแสบหลัง อาบแสงที่ลอดผ่านใบไม้ยามเช้าแบบไม่ต้องฝืนตาก็พอ แสงอินฟราเรดนี่แหละคือพระเอกตัวจริงในความเงียบ มันไม่ดัง ไม่โชว์ ไม่โฆษณา แต่มันลงลึกไปถึงระดับที่ร่างกายเรากำลังหิวโดยไม่รู้ตัวในระดับเซลล์

ในเซลล์ของเรา มีหน่วยผลิตพลังงานที่เรียกว่าไมโทคอนเดรีย เจ้านี่แหละคือโรงไฟฟ้าจิ๋วประจำบ้าน ที่ต้องตื่นมาทำงานทุกวันโดยไม่ได้หยุดเสาร์อาทิตย์ ยิ่งถ้าไมโทคอนเดรียทำงานไม่ดี ร่างกายก็จะเหมือนไฟตกทั้งระบบ—ง่วงง่าย เพลียไว ปวดนู่นปวดนี่เหมือนไฟในบ้านกระพริบตลอดเวลา

แล้วแสงอินฟราเรดเกี่ยวอะไรกับมัน? เฮียขอเล่าง่ายๆ ว่า ไมโทคอนเดรียมีตัวรับแสงตัวหนึ่งชื่อว่า cytochrome c oxidase เจ้านี่ตอบสนองต่อแสงอินฟราเรดช่วงคลื่นเฉพาะ คือประมาณ 600–900 นาโนเมตร พอโดนเข้าไป มันเหมือนได้จุดประกายให้โรงงานพลังงานในร่างกายกลับมาคึกคักอีกครั้ง ผลิตพลังงานได้มากขึ้น ระบบไหลเวียนเลือดก็ดีขึ้น เหมือนท่อน้ำที่เคยอุดตันก็กลับมาใสแจ๋ว ความอักเสบเล็กๆ ในร่างกายก็ลดลง คล้ายบ้านที่เคยอับชื้นแล้วได้เปิดหน้าต่างให้แสงแดดส่องเข้าไป

และที่น่ารักกว่านั้นคือ เราไม่ต้องไปถึงชายหาด ไม่ต้องจองรีสอร์ตริมทะเล แค่แดดเช้าอ่อนๆ ข้างบ้านหรือตามขอบระเบียง ก็ให้แสงอินฟราเรดได้แล้ว ถ้าใครอยู่ในเมืองใหญ่ที่มีแต่ตึกบังแดด แล้วจะเลือกใช้หลอดไฟ Red Light Therapy ก็ไม่ผิด แต่ต้องเลือกแบบรู้เท่าทันรู้ ไม่ใช่เห็นใครรีวิวก็ซื้อมาเปิดใส่หน้า หวังจะหน้าใสข้ามคืน ต้องเข้าใจทั้งความยาวคลื่น เวลาใช้งาน และจุดประสงค์ ไม่ใช่ใช้เพราะแค่กลัวแก่อยากหน้าตึง แต่ใช้เพราะอยากให้ร่างกายกลับไปทำงานอย่างเป็นธรรมชาติอีกครั้ง และอยู่ในประเทศหรือสถานที่ที่โดนแดดได้น้อยอยากได้เสริมเฉยๆ

แล้วเราจะรู้ได้ยังไงว่าไมโทคอนเดรียเรากลับมาทำงานดีขึ้น? เฮียว่าไม่ต้องรอผลเลือดจากแล็บไหนก็รู้ได้ อย่าไปยึดติดกับตัวเลขมากครับ เอาตัวเองเป็นหลัก ตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่ารู้สึกยังไงบ้าง ถ้าเริ่มนอนหลับลึกขึ้น ตื่นมาแล้วหัวไม่มึน ไม่หงุดหงิดตั้งแต่ยังไม่ลืมตา ถ้าปวดหลังปวดข้อที่เคยมีเริ่มหายไปแบบไม่ได้กินยา หรือแม้แต่ผิวที่ดูสดใสขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องง้อสกินแคร์ นั่นแหละคือเสียงขอบคุณเบาๆ จากไมโทคอนเดรียที่ได้แสงแดดแล้วกลับมามีชีวิตอีกครั้ง ถ้ามันดีก็คือดี

บางที เราไม่ต้องกินวิตามินเม็ดไหนเพิ่ม แค่เดินออกไปรับแดดเบาๆ ในเวลาเช้าๆ แล้วให้ร่างกายได้พูดคุยกับธรรมชาติบ้าง เพราะในความอบอุ่นเงียบๆ ของแสงอินฟราเรดนั้น มีเสียงเบาๆ ที่กำลังปลุกพลังในตัวเราให้กลับมาอีกครั้ง

แดดไม่ใช่ศัตรู ถ้าเรารู้จักมันในมุมที่ถูกต้อง เฮียแค่อยากชวนให้ลองเปลี่ยนจากคำว่า “กลัวแดด” เป็น “ฟังแดด” เพราะบางครั้งธรรมชาติไม่ได้พูดด้วยคำ แต่สื่อสารด้วยแสงที่แทรกผ่านหัวใจเราโดยไม่ต้องผ่านล่าม

บางคนอาจคิดในใจ “แหมเฮีย ก็ดีหรอก ถ้าได้ตื่นเช้า” 555555

เฮียเข้าใจดีเลยว่าไม่ใช่ทุกคนจะตื่นมาทันแดดยามเช้าได้เสมอไป ชีวิตคนเรามันไม่ได้เริ่มต้นพร้อมไก่ขันทุกวัน บางคนเพิ่งเข้านอนตอนตีสาม ตื่นอีกทีแดดก็แตะบ่ายเข้าไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องกังวลไปจ้ะ เพราะความมหัศจรรย์ของแสงอินฟราเรดยังมีให้เราได้ใช้แม้ในแดดยามเย็น

แดดช่วงเย็น โดยเฉพาะหลังสี่โมงเย็นไปจนเกือบหกโมง (หรือเร็วช้าตามฤดู) ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก

เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก

จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ

สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว

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This article is slightly outside my normal writing focus. But it’s something everyone deserves to know, and take advantage of if they like. Before you click away, this isn’t a sports betting “system” or “strategy”. This is for anyone living in or near a state that has legalized online sports betting. It’s a way to take advantage of the new customer sign up bonuses these online sportsbooks give, by using free online tools to convert those bonuses into $2,000 or more in cash per person, depending on your state. It doesn’t require you to know anything whatsoever about sports, gambling, sports betting, odds, math, or anything like that. It doesn’t involve taking risks with your money. All you need is some capital (around $3-5,000 would be ideal), a smartphone, a legal sports betting state, and this guide.

Concepts and Principles

Online sports betting is now legal in 30 US states. You can check legality in your state on the map here. If you’re in a state with legal mobile betting, or close enough that you’d be willing to drive there, you can benefit from this guide.

Most states with legalized betting have multiple different sports books competing for customers. To attract new customers, many of them offer various types of bonus offers when you initially sign up. The idea is that once you sign up and place a bet, you’re likely to continue betting in the future. So the sportsbook doesn’t mind losing money on your first wager, because they’ll make it back over time. That leaves an opportunity for someone to just take the free money and leave, if they want to do that. It’s completely legal, and if you follow this guide, also risk free.

The bonuses vary in size, but are usually larger the first few months after a state legalizes online betting, since sportsbooks are competing heavily to attract the new customers to their site. But most states will have a combined $3-5,000 in bonuses available at any time across 4-8 sportsbooks. You can find the available offers in your state by searching “covers sports betting promo offers \”. For example for Maryland, we’d end up up at covers.com on a page like this.

The basic concept is that we open accounts on multiple sites, sign up for their bonus offers, then bet both sides of the same sports game but on 2 different sites. That way it doesn’t matter which team wins, we collect the free bonus money with no risk.

Actually doing it is a bit more nuanced, but I’ll explain it step by step and illustrate with plenty of screenshots to make sure you can follow along.

First, you want to find the offers for your state, and sign up for the sites with the offers you want to convert. For Maryland, if we scroll on down at covers.com, we’ll find this list of offers.

The larger offers are of course more worthwhile, so if I were in Maryland, I would first sign up for Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, and ESPN BET. Since you’ll also want another site to hedge your bets, I’d also sign up for FanDuel. You can download their apps, set up your accounts, and familiarize yourself with the deposit methods that are available.

Risk-Free Bets

These are the most common bonus offers you’ll find. They’ll also be called No Sweat Bets, Second Chance Bets, First Bet Insurance, Bonus Bets, First Bets, etc. Always make sure you check the details of the promotion you’re using to make sure it’s a Risk-Free Bet, and what the terms and details of the offer are. The four offers from the sites above for Maryland all fall under the category of risk-free bets.

The concept of this offer is simple: you open an account, deposit some money, and make a bet. The very first bet (MAKE SURE YOU GET THIS RIGHT) will be your risk-free bet. If you win that first bet, cool, you get the winnings from that bet and can withdraw it. If you lose your first bet, the risk-free bet kicks in, and you get a free bet deposited into your account equal to the amount of your first bet. So you basically get a do-over if you lose the first one.

Now you won’t be able to just withdraw the free bet in cash if you lose and get your money back. That would be too easy. The risk-free bet is a bet, you can only use it to bet on another game. If you win that second wager, you can withdraw your winnings. But if you don’t, you can still win by hedging your bets on a different sportsbook. That’s what I’m going to show you.

To find which games to bet on and how much to bet, you’ll need to use a different free website. Go to Crazy Ninja Odds.

Go to Settings in the top right corner, uncheck the sites you aren’t using.

Now go back to Home. Click on Risk-free bet page.

Now we need to choose an offer to convert. Let’s choose our Caesars $1,000 First Bet. We can walk through the steps first, to see which game we want to bet and how much we need to deposit.

First, starting at the top, under “Reward” we’ll enter 100%. With this offer, if we lose our first bet, we get a free bonus bet of 100% of the amount of our first bet, up to $1,000.

Next, we’ll select “Free bet (70%)”. Our free bonus bet will be convertible at about 70%, but that’s not something we need to understand right now. Just check the box and move on.

Next, open “Risk Free Bet Sportsbook” and select Caesars.

Now the page should be filled out like this.

Click “Update” at the bottom. Scroll down, and you’ll see a chart like this.

If none of this means anything to you, that’s fine. I’ll walk you through exactly what to do.

The bets are sorted by ranking from best to worst value. So we always want to choose the top bets unless we have a reason not to. In this case, we are making our risk-free bet on Caesars, and we want to hedge on the site where we aren’t trying to convert any offers, FanDuel. So we want to look at the second column on the right, Hedge Bet Sportsbook. Go down the column until you find FanDuel. In that row, the third column from the left has a “Calc” button. I’ve highlighted the button here.

Click the button. You’ll get a popup that looks like this.

So this is an NHL hockey game between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. If you know absolutely nothing about hockey, perfect. Neither do I. The important thing is that this shows us which wagers to place, and for how much. The left column is our Risk-Free Bet on Caesars, and the right column is our Hedge on FanDuel.

Our first decision is how much to wager. You’ll see that the Caesars wager is currently set to $100. But remember, our First Bet offer is for up to $1,000. You can wager any amount up to $1,000, but you’ll only get one shot at this offer, so if you wager less than $1,000, you won’t get the full benefit of the offer, and you’ll never be able to go back and use the rest in the future. It’s one shot. So my advice is wager $1,000, there’s no good reason not to. So we’ll change the wager amount to $1,000.

Now you can see that our risk-free bet is Edmonton Oilers -1.5 for $1,000, and our hedge bet is Dallas Stars +1.5 for $1,604.93. If you don’t know what that means, that’s fine. What you need to know is that you’ll need to deposit at least $1,000 into your Caesars account, and at least $1,604.93 into your FanDuel account. When that’s done, you can check the bets on each site to make sure the odds are accurate. They change constantly, so it’s always good to check both sites just before placing a bet.

First, we’ll open up the Caesars app and search for “Edmonton Oilers.” Sure enough, the game pops up.

Then we’ll click on that game and open it up

There are four things we want to check on each bet before placing it. I’ve highlighted them above. We have the Edmonton Oilers -1.5, odds of +196, a wager of $1,000, and a payout of $2,960. If we compare that with the correct column in our Risk-Free Bet Calculator, we’ll see that everything is correct.

Now we want to do the same for the FanDuel hedge. We’ll open the FanDuels app and search for “Dallas Stars” and find the same game against the Oilers.

Here we can see the first problem. The spread we see here is -1.5, odds of +225. Our Risk-Free Bet Calculator is asking for Dallas Stars +1.5, odds -245. So we need to select a different line. Farther down the page you’ll see “Series Alternate Handicap.” Open that, and you’ll see Dallas Stars +1.5.

This is the bet we’re looking for. But you’ll also notice that the odds are -225 instead of -245. So we can select this bet, but we need to go back to our Risk-Free Bet Calculator and change the odds to get the correct amount to bet on this line.

So go back to the calculator and change -245 to -225. You’ll see this.

As you can see, the amount of the wager has changed to $1,564.62. So we can go back to FanDuel, select Dallas Stars +1.5, odds -225, and enter our updated wager amount.

As you can see, when we add the “Wager” and the “To Win” amount, we get $2,260.01. Looking at our calculator, that’s the exact number in our “Payout” row. So these are the bets we need to make.

Now that we’ve double checked everything, we can go back and make our $1,000 bet on Caesars, and immediately go make our $1,564.62 bet on FanDuel.

Awesome!

Now what? Well, our job is done. We just wait to see which team wins. Not that it matters to us either way. But which team wins will determine our next step.

Looking at our calculator again, there are two possible outcomes.

The first outcome is the Edmonton Oilers win. In that case, our Caesars bet will payout $2,960, while our FanDuel bet will be a total loss. Here’s how we do the math on that scenario.

We start with our $2,960 Caesars balance. We subtract our $1,564.62 FanDuel bet (which was a loss). Then we subtract the $1,000 we initially deposited and wagered on Caesars. This leaves us with a profit of $395.38! Not bad for a one day return on $2,564.62, while taking no risk.

Now for the second scenario. That would be if the Dallas Stars win. In that case, our Caesars bet is a total loss. Our FanDuel bet pays our $2,260.01

So to calculate our profit here, we start with our payout of $2,260.01, subtract our wager of $1,564.62, subtract our Caesars wager of $1,000 (which was a loss), and then add 70% of our free bonus Caesars bet of $1,000, or $700 (more on that in a minute). Once again, that gives us a profit of $395.39.

Now back to the free bonus bet. Since our Caesars bet lost, we qualified for the promotional payout. If we check the Caesars app, we should see a bonus bet of $1,000 in our balance. Remember I said that you can’t just withdraw the bonus bet? This situation is where that becomes an issue. So we have to place a $1,000 wager with Caesars before we can withdraw that money. The problem with that is, what if our second wager also loses? Then we lose money on the entire process. That’s where the 70% number comes in. We’ll use a similar process when making that $1,000 wager, by hedging on a second site once again. By doing that, we’ll be guaranteed to collect around 70% of the wager, or $700. I’ll explain that in the next section.

Free Bets

This is the name for the bet we get if we lose our initial bet on a site with a Risk-Free Bet offer. This is just what it sounds like, a free bet. You can bet the amount on a game, and if you win, the winnings are your money. You’re free to withdraw that cash.

How do we ensure we still make a profit, even if our free bet loses? Well, Crazy Ninja Odds can help once again. Go back to their homepage, and this time click on Free Bets instead of Risk Free Bets. This time all we need to do is enter the sportsbook, Caesars, and click “update.” We’ll get a chart like this.

You know the drill by now. We find the first option on our Hedge Bet Sportsbook, FanDuel. This time it’s highlighted on the second row. Click “Calc.”

This is a money line bet, so it’s slightly different than the first one, but you won’t have any trouble figuring it out this time. You can check Caesars, and you’ll find the money line bet of $1,000 on the Pacers at +222, with a payout of $2,220.

Make sure you select your free bonus bet when you make the wager. If you lost your initial $1,000 deposit and didn’t deposit again, that should be your only option. It will look slightly different than this, since when you use a free bet, your payout won’t include the initial $1,000 wager, so it will read $2,220 instead of $3,220. I don’t have the free offer in my account so I can’t show you the exact screenshot, but you’ll be able to figure it out.

Then jump over to the other side of the game on FanDuel.

You’ll notice that the line is -275 instead of -270 like your calculator said. By now you know how to go back and change the odds in the calculator to get this.

Once again, you’ll want to make a $1,628 wager on the Boston Celtics at -275 to hedge your $1,000 free bonus bet on the Indiana Pacers at +222.

I could go through the math again, but you know how to do it now. You can look at the profit line and see that both outcomes will pay $592. If you remember, our initial bet used 70% of $1,000, or $700, as a bonus bet profit target. So given the odds available on this particular day, you’ll end up with just over $100 less profit if you need to convert the bonus bet than you’ll make if your first Caesars bet wins. That’s unfortunate, but just a result of games and odds available on a particular day. Getting a higher conversion rate would require more complex strategies, and this guide is long enough already.

Next Steps

Once you’ve successfully completed your initial offer, you can continue to do the same process for each additional sportsbook available in your state. And as you work through the offers on one site, you can then use that site to hedge the next site you sign up for.

There are a few things to keep in mind. Your free bonus bets are usually time limited. That means if your first bet loses, you often have as little as 7 days to use the free bonus bet before it disappears. So make sure you stay on top of your offers and play them before they expire. If you aren’t sure whether you qualify for a specific promotional offer, reach out to customer support before placing any bets. They’ll be able to explain exactly which offers you qualify for and how to access them.

Once you sign up and start betting, you’ll likely start getting more offers in the apps. They might be free bets, in which case you already know how to play them. But there are other offers as well, some of which you can do in a risk free way. If this guide gets enough interest, I may write more about how to handle other types of offers.

These offers will be available once to each person. So you can play them once, and that’s it. But you can also help each member of your family or close friends sign up and show them how to play the offers, or do it for them. Just be careful with your money management, since there will be a significant capital investment up front. If you’re putting up the capital, make sure it’s someone you fully trust with control of that money.

If there’s enough interest, I may also put together a guide on how you can do this with family members or friends who live anywhere, even if they’re not in a state with legal sports betting.

Most of all, be safe, don’t tie up capital you need for your daily life, and make sure you understand each offer and how to exploit it before placing any wagers.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me and I’ll do my best to help you in any way I can.

Best of luck!

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

The credit/debt fiat money system is broken. If you haven’t been living under a rock, I’m sure you’re aware that something is really messed up in the financial system. Hopefully you’re at least somewhat aware of the reasons why and are placing blame squarely on the structure of the monetary system and not on politics or “capitalism” or “socialism” or corporations or billionaires or any of the other red herrings the bankers desperately hope to distract you with.

If you’re still obsessing over any of those things, that’s okay too, and you’re the reason I started this newsletter. It’s impossible to make good decisions without understanding the relevant information, and when it comes to money, almost no one understands the relevant information. My goal is to change that for as many people as I can reach, to grow the small group of people who are knowledgeable and empowered to make better decisions on money and finance.

Previous articles have been focused on economic theory and how money works at a conceptual level. That’s critically important to understand, and if you haven’t taken the time to read those articles, I know it will open your eyes to the world in a way you’ve never considered before. That understanding will give you a huge advantage in benefiting from what I’m about to describe. But today’s subject is strictly practical, actionable information on one specific financial instrument, and how you can use it to game the broken money system to benefit YOU.

Money Is Not Scarce

If you read my previous articles, you’ll understand that one of the biggest problems with the credit/debt money system is that money is not scarce in this system. In fact, the quantity of money is basically unlimited. That’s because money is created by banks every time they make a loan. Unlike everything you’ve ever thought, banks don’t lend out money that’s given to them by depositors. They create new money, out of thin air, with a computer keystroke, every time they make a new loan. That means in practical terms that the amount of money is only limited by the willingness of banks to make loans. And since banks profit by charging interest to loan out money they can create at zero cost, they’re incentivized to make a LOT of loans.

Now as you can easily see, things that aren’t scarce don’t have a lot of value. The less scarce and more easily available something is, the less valuable it becomes. If you and a friend were standing on the shore of Lake Michigan and you reached down and scooped up a cup full of water, turned to your friend, and said “I’ll trade you this cup of water for your Rolex watch,” he’d look at you like you lost your mind. And rightly so, since a cup of water on the shore of a giant lake is so abundant and easily accessible that it has no value compared to a Rolex watch, which are deliberately produced in very limited amounts to increase their scarcity and value.

The difference between money and the water in that example is that money is not scarce, but it is selectively scarce. If you’re a bank, you have access to as much money as you choose to loan out, at zero cost. On the other hand, if you aren’t a bank, money is only available if the bank decides to create some and loan it to you, or you work hard to earn money someone else already has.

This selective scarcity of money is the root cause of the massive wealth inequality we see today. Money is essential to survive in the modern economy, but access to that money is very unevenly distributed.

So how does this benefit certain people? You might be thinking, but don’t borrowers have to pay the loan back with interest? Of course it’s easy to see how the banks benefit, but plenty of wealthy people are not bankers. And that’s a good point. Here’s how.

Because of the incentives banks have to make loans, the amount of money in circulation tends to keep rising exponentially. The amount of most real goods in the economy, however, typically doesn’t rise as fast. When you have more money circulating in the economy without more goods available, the prices people are willing to pay for those goods will go up. That means prices of some scarce goods rise very consistently over time. Those with access to newly created money in the form of loans benefit by using that money to buy assets that are more scarce than the money they borrowed to buy the asset. So they may buy an asset for $1 million, but by the time the loan is due to be repaid, the continuous inflation caused by the increasing money supply might have pushed the price of that asset up to $1.5 million. So subtract the interest paid from $500,000, and there’s your profit, all for doing nothing but convincing a banker to create some money and let you borrow it. The concept that those closest to the source of new money will benefit the most, because they can buy things before the prices rise, is called the Cantillon effect.

Benefitting from the Cantillon Effect

So how can you benefit? You can see that borrowing a bunch of money and buying a good asset with it would be the perfect way to take advantage of the Cantillon effect. But the problem for most people is, if they go to the bank and ask to borrow a few hundred thousand dollars, they’ll be declined in a millisecond. If you’re not already wealthy, you’re going to have a really tough time getting a big loan at a low interest rate, which is what it takes to make this system work in your favor. Most people only have access to loans in the form of a credit card or personal loan, which will be for a small amount and a very high interest rate. That’s not helpful. Luckily there’s one exception, one way almost anyone can borrow a big chunk of money at a low interest rate, and buy an asset that will increase in price over time as the money supply grows: a mortgage.

If you have the income and credit to support a mortgage payment, it can be a great way to take advantage of the broken monetary system to accumulate some long term wealth. However, there are a few caveats and some simple tricks that can make all the difference.

First, while the constant demand for houses fueled by easy access to newly created money means house prices tend to rise consistently over time, there are no guarantees. The housing market often has periods of boom and bust, and falling prices can last for years. Borrowing is always risky, and you shouldn’t take a risk you don’t understand or aren’t comfortable with. While no one can time the housing market, it’s always good to at least be aware that the housing market does rise and fall in cycles, and try to avoid buying when all signs point to housing being extremely overpriced.

Second, just because houses are rising in price doesn’t mean they’re rising in value. It’s a simple concept, but one most people miss. Like Warren Buffet says, price is what you pay, value is what you get. If you buy a house today for $400,000, and in 10 years that same house sells for $700,000, how much did the value of the house change? The price went up, but the house is still the same house in the same location, it’s just a decade older. And a decade of wear and tear is a decrease in value, not an increase. Think of it this way. You can sell for $700,000 and you have $300,000 of “profit”. But if you want the same house back, you can’t buy it for $400,000 again and pocket the $300,000. You can only get the same house back for the full price you received. You haven’t increased your purchasing power at all in terms of housing with that “profit”. Your house hasn’t become more valuable, your money has just become less valuable when measured against houses. In that sense, you probably can’t increase your purchasing power by buying a house to live in, but you can at least avoid losing purchasing power. If you just save money in the bank to buy a house later, house prices will probably rise faster than you can save. That’s especially true if you’re paying rent at the same time. At least with a mortgage, if you pay long enough you own a house eventually. You can pay rent your whole life and you’ll still own nothing at the end.

Understanding Amortization

The key to making a mortgage work for you is to understand and manipulate the amount of principal and interest you pay over the term of the loan. To do this, you need to understand how a mortgage amortization schedule works. An amortization schedule is basically a big chart of your mortgage payments each month, showing how much of each payment is applied to paying down the principal and how much is paying interest. The payment size is the same each month, but the amount of principal and interest varies over the term of the loan, and that’s key to understanding how to manipulate the system.

To understand amortization, you need a good amortization calculator. There are plenty of different ones available online, but I’m going to use the one here to illustrate. In this example, I’m going to arbitrarily choose a mortgage size of $500,000 and an interest rate of 7%, but you can of course use your own numbers. When we enter this into the calculator with a loan term of 30 years and click “calculate”, we get something that looks like this.

You can see the monthly payment of $3,326.51, and the total payments over 30 years of almost $1.2 million, almost $700,000 of which is interest. So you end up paying more in interest than the total amount of principal you borrowed. Gulp.

That seems terrible, and it is. But this is where understanding the amortization schedule, that scary looking chart to the left, is going to pay big dividends. First, change the amortization schedule from an annual schedule to a monthly schedule. You’ll see something that looks like this.

So now for each month, you can see how much of the payment is interest, how much is principal, and how much of your original $500,000 balance is still outstanding. As you can see in month one, you’re paying over $2,900 in interest and only $400 in principal, leaving you with a balance of $499,590.15. The reason the interest is so high initially is that you have to pay interest on the full principal balance. As the principal gets paid down, you are now paying interest on a smaller balance. If you scroll down to year 29, you’ll see the opposite situation. In month 338 you’ll pay $2,900 of principal and only $400 of interest. That’s because you’re now paying interest on a balance of only $68,000 instead of $500,000.

As you can see, getting into the later years of the mortgage is a much better situation than paying huge amounts of interest in the first few years. Is there a way to get closer to the end fast? Yes there is, and you may be surprised how easy it is.

Go back to the annual amortization schedule. Suppose you want to take 5 years off your mortgage. How much would it cost to do, and how much would you save in interest? There are two ways to do this, and we’ll cover both.

First, the easiest way to get 5 years off your mortgage is to move straight down the amortization schedule to year 6. How can you do that? Look at the annual amortization schedule for year 5. Your ending balance is a little over $470,000. That means to get to that point in the loan repayment schedule, you need to pay $30,000 of principal. So let’s see where a lump sum payment of $30,000 gets us. Inside the box where you entered your loan terms you’ll see a little checkbox labeled “Optional: make extra payments”. Click that box. In the “Extra one-time pay” box, enter $30,000. Click calculate. You’ll see this.

And viola, with the extra payment, the loan will be paid off in 25 years, and you’ll save $172,362 in interest. Pretty amazing results for a one-time $30,000 payment.

Of course for the sake of simplicity, that’s assuming you pay the $30,000 at the very beginning of the loan. Paying the lump sum later into the loan term will change the exact amount of the savings. You can play around with other payment sizes, or even multiple lump sum payments, and see how much each one will save.

But most of you will be thinking, “Where am I going to get $30,000? That’s never going to happen.” If that’s you, don’t worry. We can do the exact same thing a different way.

Go back to your calculator, remove the lump sum payment, and leave everything else the same, except the loan term. Change the loan term to 25 years instead of 30 years. Click calculate. Now look at just one number, the payment size. You’ll see it’s $3,533.90. Don’t worry about anything else, just note that number. Now reset to your original calculation of a 30 year term. You’ll see the payment size is back down to $3,326.51. Now get out your calculator and subtract $3,326.51 from $3,533.90. You’ll get $207.39. Go back to your “make extra payments” box and enter an “extra monthly pay” of $207.39. Click calculate.

As you can see, just by paying an extra $207 of principal every month, you’ll pay the loan off 5 years faster and save $137,379 in interest.

You’ll save a little less that way than the lump sum payment, because you’re not paying the principal down as much early in the loan. But paying an extra $200 a month is much easier for most people than accumulating thousands of dollars to make a large lump sum payment. A few hundred dollars is only about 6% of the size of this mortgage payment, so it’s really a small difference. And if you can’t afford to pay a few percent of your payment size extra each month, the mortgage is probably bigger than you can reasonably afford.

You can play around with these numbers in all kinds of ways. It’s a good way to help you think about your financial decisions, and the real impact they might have over time. Say for example, you’re considering buying a new grill for the backyard. You only grill a few times a month during the summer, and a replacement model of the basic charcoal grill you have now would be perfectly serviceable. It’s available for $119 on Amazon. But your brother-in-law just bought one of those Big Green Eggs and he keeps bragging about how amazing it is. They’re $1,950, but you can afford it, you just got a nice little bonus at work. So why not?

But before you get out the checkbook, let’s take a quick look at the mortgage calculator. Let’s see how much that extra $1,831 spent on a grill you don’t really need will actually cost you. Again, input your mortgage size, term, and interest rate, and add an extra one-time payment of $1,831.

Hopefully you’re still using that Big Green Egg in 30 years, because by that time, it will have cost you almost $13,000 in additional interest payments.

You can fill in the blank with your own discretionary purchases and see whether they’re really worth the cost. It’s just another little tool to help plan your financial decisions. It’s free to do, and can make a very significant difference in your financial well-being down the road. But almost no one takes advantage of the opportunity, so you’ll have a huge leg up on most people just by knowing this simple concept.

The Bottom Line

To take advantage of the opportunity to build wealth with a mortgage, there are only two simple rules.

1. Use a mortgage to buy a reasonably priced house that you couldn’t otherwise afford.

2. Take advantage of amortization to pay that mortgage off as fast as possible, so you pay as little interest as possible while still capturing the increase in price of the house.

If you already own a home, you can use the same concept. Take out a mortgage for whatever amount you’re comfortable with, and use the money to buy an asset that will increase in price with inflation. Choose your asset wisely, and don’t take on more debt than you can afford. But if you make good decisions, you can take advantage of the broken financial system, using this little mortgage cheat code to get the Cantillon effect on your side. The wealthy are doing it every day, so don’t miss the opportunity to lock in long-term, fixed rate debt and acquire hard assets. As the debt/credit fiat system implodes, the opportunity to do this will disappear. Take advantage of it while you can.

@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5

In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.

The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.

These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.

In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.

He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.

“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”

To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.

And he was right. Literally.

By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.

But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.

His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.

With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.

But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.

He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.

In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.

And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.

@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom

Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.

Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

“Education increases conviction.

Conviction increases allocation.

Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi

https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg

On the 12th of May:

➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."

https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg

➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.

➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '

On the 13th of May:

➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg

➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.

➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."

➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.

➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News

➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.

➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.

➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.

➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.

➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...

➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.

➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."

Well, here you go.

Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg

Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.

I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.

It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.

And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...

DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!

Clear!

➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:

10th percentile: 33%

25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%

Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:

Gold: 17%

Silver: 20%

S&P 500: 24%

Apple: 52%

Two lessons here:

1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.

2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'

https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg

➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.

➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.

On the 14th of May:

➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.

➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.

➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.

➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC

On the 15th of May:

➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.

➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.

➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.

➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.

On the 16th of May:

➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".

➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.

➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger

➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg

On the 17th of May:

➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.

Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:

63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.

13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)

Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025

Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.

On the 18th of May:

➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg

On the 19th of May.

➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...

'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:

7 independent reports

20 peer-reviewed papers

As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755

➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.

If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.

If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.

HFSP, bondcucks!'

I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha

➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR

If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.

➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.

➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project

"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"

Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg

➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.

➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.

➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked

https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.

👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.

👉🏽'Truly incredible:

1. Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
2. Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
3. Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL

President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds

Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."

Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.

👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.

👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"

Source

Kinda obvious, innit?

👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.

On the 14th of May:

👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.

A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL

On the 15th of May:

👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png

On the 16th of May:

👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL

👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL

👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL

Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.

Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg

RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.

👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor

https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png

On the 18th of May:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg

On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png

👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'

🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:

What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis

'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'

https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.

Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀

⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you?

If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃

⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃

@ 9bde4214:06ca052b

"It's gonna be permissionless or hell."

Gigi and gzuuus are vibing towards dystopia.

Books & articles mentioned:

• AI 2027
• DVMs were a mistake
• Careless People by Sarah Wynn-Williams
• Takedown by Laila michelwait
• The Ultimate Resource by Julian L. Simon
• Harry Potter by J.K. Rowling
• Momo by Michael Ende

In this dialogue:

• Pablo's Roo Setup
• Tech Hype Cycles
• AI 2027
• Prompt injection and other attacks
• Goose and DVMCP
• Cursor vs Roo Code
• Staying in control thanks to Amber and signing delegation
• Is YOLO mode here to stay?
• What agents to trust?
• What MCP tools to trust?
• What code snippets to trust?
• Everyone will run into the issues of trust and micropayments
• Nostr solves Web of Trust & micropayments natively
• Minimalistic & open usually wins
• DVMCP exists thanks to Totem
• Relays as Tamagochis
• Agents aren't nostr experts, at least not right now
• Fix a mistake once & it's fixed forever
• Giving long-term memory to LLMs
• RAG Databases signed by domain experts
• Human-agent hybrids & Chess
• Nostr beating heart
• Pluggable context & experts
• "You never need an API key for anything"
• Sats and social signaling
• Difficulty-adjusted PoW as a rare-limiting mechanism
• Certificate authorities and centralization
• No solutions to policing speech!
• OAuth and how it centralized
• Login with nostr
• Closed vs open-source models
• Tiny models vs large models
• The minions protocol (Stanford paper)
• Generalist models vs specialized models
• Local compute & encrypted queries
• Blinded compute
• "In the eyes of the state, agents aren't people"
• Agents need identity and money; nostr provides both
• "It's gonna be permissionless or hell"
• We already have marketplaces for MCP stuff, code snippets, and other things
• Most great stuff came from marketplaces (browsers, games, etc)
• Zapstore shows that this is already working
• At scale, central control never works. There's plenty scams and viruses in the app stores.
• Using nostr to archive your user-generated content
• HAVEN, blossom, novia
• The switcharoo from advertisements to training data
• What is Truth?
• What is Real?
• "We're vibing into dystopia"
• Who should be the arbiter of Truth?
• First Amendment & why the Logos is sacred
• Silicon Valley AI bros arrogantly dismiss wisdom and philosophy
• Suicide rates & the meaning crisis
• Are LLMs symbiotic or parasitic?
• The Amish got it right
• Are we gonna make it?
• Careless People by Sarah Wynn-Williams
• Takedown by Laila michelwait
• Harry Potter dementors & Momo's time thieves
• Facebook & Google as non-human (superhuman) agents
• Zapping as a conscious action
• Privacy and the internet
• Plausible deniability thanks to generative models
• Google glasses, glassholes, and Meta's Ray Ben's
• People crave realness
• Bitcoin is the realest money we ever had
• Nostr allows for real and honest expression
• How do we find out what's real?
• Constraints, policing, and chilling effects
• Jesus' plans for DVMCP
• Hzrd's article on how DVMs are broken (DVMs were a mistake)
• Don't believe the hype
• DVMs pre-date MCP tools
• Data Vending Machines were supposed to be stupid: put coin in, get stuff out.
• Self-healing vibe-coding
• IP addresses as scarce assets
• Atomic swaps and the ASS protocol
• More marketplaces, less silos
• The intensity of #SovEng and the last 6 weeks
• If you can vibe-code everything, why build anything?
• Time, the ultimate resource
• What are the LLMs allowed to think?
• Natural language interfaces are inherently dialogical
• Sovereign Engineering is dialogical too

@ d9e9fb27:d5fe5e1a

"There are two pillars in Costa Rica, education and coffee." A tourist guide I met told me this, and during the trip I discovered the strong link between coffee and the locals.

In fact, coffee runs very deeply in the Ticos' culture. So deep that the summer vacations from school (November to January) coincide with the coffee collection season. Children had to help their parents with the coffee. Coffee was a family business.

Monteverde, in the region of Puentarenas, is one of those places where coffee ha always been a corner stone of the society. Here, My gf and I went to visit a coffee plantation and discovered how coffee is made.

---

Monteverde

Monteverde is a well-known turistic location in the central part of Costa Rica. Many people reach this beautiful place to visit the famous Cloud Rainforest, acres and acres of pristine forest, with many different kind of animals and plants living in it.

However, other than tourism is coffee that pushes the economy of this place. The hills around the town are covered with coffee plantations and there are tours than try to explain how coffee is made.

Coffee Tours

While we were in Monteverde, we joined one of these tours. We decided to give credit to a smaller plantation instead of the super turistic ones. A more rustic and family-owned business, El Pueblo Coffee Tour. We were not disappointed. We had the show all to ourselves, a super-prepared guide and all the time to make questions and enjoy with no rush.

The Plant of Coffee

Since Costa Rica is a quite small country, to compete on the market producers decided to bet on quality instead of quantity. That's why, the only type produced here is the Arabica.

Before the coffee bean, the plant produces a nice white flower, similar to the jasmine.

After a while, the coffee beans appear.

As soon as they turn red, they are ready to be collected.

Interesting fact: between the coffee plants many fruit trees like mangos or bananos can be found. In fact, those plants help keep the soil fertile and healthy, thus leading to a higher coffee quality!

Coffee Harvesting

Coffee is still harvested by hand. Beans do not get mature at the same time, so manual labor is needed. Laborer use a very simple tool to collect coffee, one which allow them to have both hands free.

Workers do not get paid by hours, but by the number of cajuelas that they can fill. A cajuela is a standard box, which contains around 13kg of beans. It's divided into quarters, so that the worker can get paid for the quarter, too.

Each cajuela is paid around 3.50$.

Coffee Drying

In the farm we visited, drying was perfomed naturally, through the heat of the sun. There are three ways in which the bean is left to dry: lavado, miel and naturàl.

• Lavado: The beans are peeled and washed to remove the jelly.

- Miel: The jelly on the beans is maintained to give it more sweet flavour.

- Naturàl: The bean is left to dry with its peel on, to give it a more fruity taste.

Back in the days, to peel the beans for the lavado and the miel variety, the pìlon was used. The bean is very hard, thus this tool does not damage it.

However, today the peeling procedure is done using a machine.

Coffee Roasting

The last step in the production of coffee is roasting. Coffee is put inside a sort of hoven, and is left there at high temperature according to the level of roasting that is needed. The more roasting, the less caffeine there is and the more bitter the coffee. Usually you have light, medium and dark roast.

Coffee Tasting

In the end, we also had a coffee tasting. We tried different roasting and different varieties.

Our guide explained us the best way to taste coffee and helped us defining the different flavours that we perceived. He also taught us the best way to prepare it: infusion time, water temperature, coffe makers and so on.

My favorite one was the dark one, while my gf enjoyed the light roast more. Of course, we bought some packs of these varieties!

---

Thanks for tuning in!

I hope you enjoyed this brief overview of the Costa Rican coffee.

Pura Vida

Tuma

@ 15cf81d4:b328e146

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Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

# Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝

🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

• Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases
• Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses
• Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets
• Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats

You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

Our Recovery Services Include: 📈

• Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

🎉 Start Your Recovery Journey Today!\ Ready to reclaim your lost crypto? Don’t wait until it’s too late!\ 👉 cryptrecver.com

📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us!\ For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on:\ ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver\ 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Why
is
this
not

on
separate
lines

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.

The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.

The key types of thinking are:

• Thinking to acquire knowledge
• Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.

In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)

Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”

Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.

---

“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.

Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

I’m Derek Ross, and I’m all-in on Nostr.

I started the Grow Nostr Initiative to help more people discover what makes Nostr so powerful: ✅ You own your identity ✅ You choose your social graph and algorithms ✅ You aren't locked into any single app or platform ✅ You can post, stream, chat, and build, all without gatekeepers

What we’re doing with Grow Nostr Initiative: 🌱 Hosting local meetups and mini-conferences to onboard people face-to-face 📚 Creating educational materials and guides to demystify how Nostr works 🧩 Helping businesses and creators understand how they can plug into Nostr (running media servers, relays, and using key management tools)

I believe Nostr is the foundation of a more open internet. It’s still early, but we’re already seeing incredible apps for social, blogging, podcasting, livestreaming, and more. And the best part is that they're all interoperable, censorship-resistant, and built on open standards. Nostr is the world's largest bitcoin economy by transaction volume and I truly believe that the purple pill helps the orange pill go down. Meaning, growing Nostr will also grow Bitcoin adoption.

If you’ve been curious about Nostr or are building something on it, or let’s talk. Whether you're just getting started or you're already deep in the ecosystem, I'm here to answer questions, share what I’ve learned, and hear your ideas. Check out https://nostrapps.com to find your next social decentralized experience.

Ask Me Anything about GNI, Nostr, Bitcoin, the upcoming #NosVegas event at the Bitcoin Conference next week, etc.!

– Derek Ross 🌐 https://grownostr.org npub18ams6ewn5aj2n3wt2qawzglx9mr4nzksxhvrdc4gzrecw7n5tvjqctp424

https://stacker.news/items/984689

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus

Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus

Maecenas commodo, augue in placerat lacinia, lorem libero convallis mi, eu fringilla velit arcu id sem. In ac metus vitae sapien dignissim luctus

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Suspendisse quis rutrum nisi Integer nec augue quis ex euismod blandit ut ac mi

Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃

Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)

Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!

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Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".

Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju

Kako nas je deda Avram spasio pre 30 godina: Neverovatno svedočenje tvorca „super dinara“ o jednoj od najgorih godina u istoriji Srbije

Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović

Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar

„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)

Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!

ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.

Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.

Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.

U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.

Wikipedia: Redenomination

Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.

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Komentari

brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.

Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.

Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.

@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.

brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.

Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.

Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.

@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.

HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.

@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?

Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?

HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.

@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/

HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.

@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.

Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.

Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.

Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.

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loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...

A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?

@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.

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Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?

2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...

@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.

Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k

Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.

Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.

@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.

Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.

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Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.

Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.

Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.

Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.

I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..

@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.

A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.

Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.

Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.

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Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.

Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.

@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?

Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster

Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.

Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D

Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.

Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.

p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu

@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.

Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".

Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.

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kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:

-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.

-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.

-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.

-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.

-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?

-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.

-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.

OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.

Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.

@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.

Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.

Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.

Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.

BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.

Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.

Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.

Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.

Svako dobro!

kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.

Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.

Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).

Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.

Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.

Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.

Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.

Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.

@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.

Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.

Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.

Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).

Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.

kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.

Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...

Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?

XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...

Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.

Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I

@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me

Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!

Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.

Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.

Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.

kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.

A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?

Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.

Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!

Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.

Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.

@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom

Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.

Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.

ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.

Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?

Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.

@ 266815e0:6cd408a5

Its been a little over a year since NIP-90 was written and merged into the nips repo and its been a communication mess.

Every DVM implementation expects the inputs in slightly different formats, returns the results in mostly the same format and there are very few DVM actually running.

NIP-90 is overloaded

Why does a request for text translation and creating bitcoin OP_RETURNs share the same input i tag? and why is there an output tag on requests when only one of them will return an output?

Each DVM request kind is for requesting completely different types of compute with diffrent input and output requirements, but they are all using the same spec that has 4 different types of inputs (text, url, event, job) and an undefined number of output types.

Let me show a few random DVM requests and responses I found on wss://relay.damus.io to demonstrate what I mean:

This is a request to translate an event to English json { "kind": 5002, "content": "", "tags": [ // NIP-90 says there can be multiple inputs, so how would a DVM handle translatting multiple events at once? [ "i", "<event-id>", "event" ], [ "param", "language", "en" ], // What other type of output would text translations be? image/jpeg? [ "output", "text/plain" ], // Do we really need to define relays? cant the DVM respond on the relays it saw the request on? [ "relays", "wss://relay.unknown.cloud/", "wss://nos.lol/" ] ] }

This is a request to generate text using an LLM model json { "kind": 5050, // Why is the content empty? wouldn't it be better to have the prompt in the content? "content": "", "tags": [ // Why use an indexable tag? are we ever going to lookup prompts? // Also the type "prompt" isn't in NIP-90, this should probably be "text" [ "i", "What is the capital of France?", "prompt" ], [ "p", "c4878054cff877f694f5abecf18c7450f4b6fdf59e3e9cb3e6505a93c4577db2" ], [ "relays", "wss://relay.primal.net" ] ] }

This is a request for content recommendation json { "kind": 5300, "content": "", "tags": [ // Its fine ignoring this param, but what if the client actually needs exactly 200 "results" [ "param", "max_results", "200" ], // The spec never mentions requesting content for other users. // If a DVM didn't understand this and responded to this request it would provide bad data [ "param", "user", "b22b06b051fd5232966a9344a634d956c3dc33a7f5ecdcad9ed11ddc4120a7f2" ], [ "relays", "wss://relay.primal.net", ], [ "p", "ceb7e7d688e8a704794d5662acb6f18c2455df7481833dd6c384b65252455a95" ] ] }

This is a request to create a OP_RETURN message on bitcoin json { "kind": 5901, // Again why is the content empty when we are sending human readable text? "content": "", "tags": [ // and again, using an indexable tag on an input that will never need to be looked up ["i", "09/01/24 SEC Chairman on the brink of second ETF approval", "text"] ] }

My point isn't that these event schema's aren't understandable but why are they using the same schema? each use-case is different but are they all required to use the same i tag format as input and could support all 4 types of inputs.

Lack of libraries

With all these different types of inputs, params, and outputs its verify difficult if not impossible to build libraries for DVMs

If a simple text translation request can have an event or text as inputs, a payment-required status at any point in the flow, partial results, or responses from 10+ DVMs whats the best way to build a translation library for other nostr clients to use?

And how do I build a DVM framework for the server side that can handle multiple inputs of all four types (url, text, event, job) and clients are sending all the requests in slightly differently.

Supporting payments is impossible

The way NIP-90 is written there isn't much details about payments. only a payment-required status and a generic amount tag

But the way things are now every DVM is implementing payments differently. some send a bolt11 invoice, some expect the client to NIP-57 zap the request event (or maybe the status event), and some even ask for a subscription. and we haven't even started implementing NIP-61 nut zaps or cashu A few are even formatting the amount number wrong or denominating it in sats and not mili-sats

Building a client or a library that can understand and handle all of these payment methods is very difficult. for the DVM server side its worse. A DVM server presumably needs to support all 4+ types of payments if they want to get the most sats for their services and support the most clients.

All of this is made even more complicated by the fact that a DVM can ask for payment at any point during the job process. this makes sense for some types of compute, but for others like translations or user recommendation / search it just makes things even more complicated.

For example, If a client wanted to implement a timeline page that showed the notes of all the pubkeys on a recommended list. what would they do when the selected DVM asks for payment at the start of the job? or at the end? or worse, only provides half the pubkeys and asks for payment for the other half. building a UI that could handle even just two of these possibilities is complicated.

NIP-89 is being abused

NIP-89 is "Recommended Application Handlers" and the way its describe in the nips repo is

a way to discover applications that can handle unknown event-kinds

Not "a way to discover everything"

If I wanted to build an application discovery app to show all the apps that your contacts use and let you discover new apps then it would have to filter out ALL the DVM advertisement events. and that's not just for making requests from relays

If the app shows the user their list of "recommended applications" then it either has to understand that everything in the 5xxx kind range is a DVM and to show that is its own category or show a bunch of unknown "favorites" in the list which might be confusing for the user.

In conclusion

My point in writing this article isn't that the DVMs implementations so far don't work, but that they will never work well because the spec is too broad. even with only a few DVMs running we have already lost interoperability.

I don't want to be completely negative though because some things have worked. the "DVM feeds" work, although they are limited to a single page of results. text / event translations also work well and kind 5970 Event PoW delegation could be cool. but if we want interoperability, we are going to need to change a few things with NIP-90

I don't think we can (or should) abandon NIP-90 entirely but it would be good to break it up into small NIPs or specs. break each "kind" of DVM request out into its own spec with its own definitions for expected inputs, outputs and flow.

Then if we have simple, clean definitions for each kind of compute we want to distribute. we might actually see markets and services being built and used.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit\ enean magna lorem, dignissim et nisl a, iaculis eleifend dolor

uspendisse potenti

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?
2. Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?
3. Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

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Bitcoin je peer to peer elektronski keš, novi oblik digitalnog novca koji se može prenositi između ljudi ili računara, bez potrebe za učestvovanjem pouzdanog posrednika (kao što je banka) i čije izdavanje nije pod kontrolom nijedne stranke.

Zamislite papirni dolar ili metalni novčić. Kad taj novac date drugoj osobi, ona ne mora da zna ko ste vi.

On samo treba da veruju da novac koji dobiju od vas nije falsifikat. Obično, proveravanje falsifikata „fizičkog“ novca, ljudi rade koristeći samo oči i prste ili koristeći specijalnu opremu za testiranje ukoliko se radi o značajnijoj sumi novca.

Većina plaćanja u našem digitalnom društvu vrši se putem Interneta korišćenjem neke posredničke usluge: kompanije za izdavanje kreditnih kartica poput Visa, snabdevača digitalnih plaćanja kao što je PayPal ili Apple Pay ili mrežne platforme poput WeChat u Kini.

Kretanje ka digitalnom plaćanju sa sobom donosi oslanjanje na nekog centralnog aktera koji mora odobriti i verifikovati svaku uplatu.

Priroda novca se promenila od fizičkog predmeta koji možete da nosite, prenesete i autentifikujete do digitalnih bitova koje mora da čuva i verifikuje treća strana koja kontroliše njihov prenos.

Odricanjem od gotovine u korist „udobnih“ digitalnih plaćanja, mi takođe stvaramo sistem u kome dajemo ogromna ovlašćenja onima koji bi poželeli da nas tlače.

Platforme za digitalno plaćanje postale su osnova distopijskih autoritarnih metoda kontrole, poput onih koje kineska vlada koristi za nadgledanje disidenata i sprečava građane, čije ponašanje im se ne svidja, da kupuju robu i plaćaju usluge.

Bitcoin nudi alternativu centralno kontrolisanom digitalnom novcu sa sistemom koji nam vraća prirodu korišćenja keša – čovek čoveku, ali u digitalnom obliku.

Bitcoin je digitalno sredstvo koje se izdaje i prenosi preko mreže međusobno povezanih računara, od koji svaki od njih samostalno potvrđuje da svi ostali igraju po pravilima.

Bitcoin Mreža

Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je izumela osoba ili grupa poznata pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, oko 2008. godine.

Niko ne zna Satoshijev identitet, a koliko znamo, oni su nestali i o njima se godinama ništa nije čulo.

11.februara 2009. godine, Satoshi je pisao o ranoj verziji Bitcoin-a na mrežnom forumu za cypher­punkere, ljude koji rade na tehnologiji kriptografije i koji su zabrinuti za privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Iako ovo nije prvo zvanično objavljivanje Bitcoin-a, sadrži dobar rezime Satoshi-jevih motiva.

Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda pod nazivom Bitcoin. Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki, jer se sve zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju. […]

Osnovni problem konvencionalne valute je potpuno poverenje koje je potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da drže naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali one ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa delićem rezerve. Moramo im verovati sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune. Njihovi ogromni režijski troškovi onemogućavaju mikro plaćanja.

Generaciju ranije, višekorisnički time-sharing računarski sistemi imali su sličan problem. Pre pojave jake enkripcije, korisnici su morali da imaju pouzdanje u zaštitu lozinkom kako bi zaštitili svoje fajlove […]

Tada je jaka enkripcija postala dostupna širokim masama i više nije bilo potrebno poverenje. Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac. Uz e-valutu zasnovanu na kriptografskom dokazu, bez potrebe da verujete posredniku treće strane, novac može biti siguran i transakcije mogu biti izvršene bez napora. […]

Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje. Ukratko, mreža radi poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić. Potrebna je prednost prirode informacije koju je lako širiti, ali je teško ugušiti. Za detalje o tome kako to funkcioniše, pogledajte članak o dizajnu na bitcoin.org

Satoshi Nakamoto

Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?

Razdvojimo neke od Satoshi-jevih postova kako bismo uvideli razloge njegove motivacije.

„Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda.“

P2P je skraćenica za peer to peer i ukazuje na sistem u kojem jedna osoba može da komunicira sa drugom bez ikoga u sredini, kao medjusobno jednaki.

Možete se setiti P2P tehnologija za razmenu datoteka poput Napster-a, Kazaa-e i BitTorrrent-a, koje su prve omogućile ljudima da dele muziku i filmove bez posrednika.

Satoshi je dizajnirao Bitcoin kako bi omogućio ljudima da razmenjuju e-keš, elektronski keš, bez prolaska preko posrednika na približno isti način.

Softver je otvorenog koda, što znači da svako može videti kako funkcioniše i doprineti tome.

Ne treba da verujemo ni u šta što je Satoshi napisao u svom postu o tome kako softver radi.

Možemo pogledati kod i sami proveriti kako to funkcioniše. Štaviše, možemo promeniti funkcionalnost sistema promenom koda.

„Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki …“

Satoshi napominje da je sistem decentralizovan kako bi se razlikovao od sistema koji imaju centralnu kontrolu.

Prethodne pokušaje stvaranja digitalne gotovine poput DigiCash-a od strane Davida Chaum-a podržavao je centralni server, računar ili skup računara koji je bio odgovoran za izdavanje i verifikaciju plaćanja pod kontrolom jedne korporacije.

Takve, centralno kontrolisane privatne šeme novca, bile su osuđene na propast; ljudi se ne mogu osloniti na novac koji može nestati kada kompanija prestane sa poslovanjem, bude hakovana, pretrpi pad servera ili je zatvori vlada.

Bitcoin održava mreža pojedinaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Da bi se Bitcoin isključio, bilo bi potrebno isključiti desetine do stotine hiljada računara širom sveta u isto vreme, zauvek, od kojih su mnogi na nepoznatim lokacijama.

Bila bi to beznadežna igra, jer bi svaki napad ove prirode jednostavno podstakao stvaranje novih Bitcoin čvorova ili računara na mreži.

„… sve se zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju“

Internet, a u stvari i većina savremenih računarskih sistema, izgrađeni su na kriptografiji, metodi prikrivanja informacija, tako da je može dekodirati samo primalac informacije.

Kako se Bitcoin oslobađa potrebe za poverenjem? Umesto da verujemo nekome ko kaže „Ja sam Alisa“ ili „Imam 10 $ na računu“, možemo koristiti kriptografsku matematiku da bismo izneli iste činjenice na način koji je vrlo lako verifikovati od strane primaoca dokaza ali ga je nemoguće falsifikovati.

Bitcoin u svom dizajnu koristi kriptografsku matematiku kako bi učesnicima omogućio da provere ponašanje svih ostalih učesnika, bez poverenja u bilo koju centralnu stranku.

„Moramo im verovati [bankama] sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune“

Za razliku od korišćenja vašeg bankovnog računa, sistema digitalnog plaćanja ili kreditne kartice, Bitcoin omogućava dvema stranama da obavljaju transakcije bez davanje bilo kakvih ličnih podataka.

Centralizovana skladišta potrošačkih podataka koji se čuvaju u bankama, kompanijama sa kreditnim karticama, procesorima plaćanja i vladama, predstavljaju pravu poslasticu za hakere.

Kao dokaz Satoshi-jeve poente služi primer iz 2017. godine kada je Equifax masovono kompromitovan, kada su hakeri ukrali identifikacione i finansijske podatke za više od 140 miliona ljudi.

Bitcoin odvaja finansijske transakcije od stvarnih identiteta.

Na kraju krajeva, kada nekome damo fizički novac, on nema potrebu da zna ko smo, niti treba da brinemo da će nakon naše razmene moći da iskoristi neke informacije koje smo mu dali da ukrade još našeg novca.

Zašto ne bismo očekivali isto, ili čak i bolje, od digitalnog novca?

„Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja.“

Pojam tradicionalna valuta, odnosi se na valutu izdatu od strane vlade i centralne banke, koju vlada proglašava zakonskim sredstvom plaćanja.

Istorijski, novac je nastao od stvari koje je bilo teško proizvesti, koje su bile lake za proveravanje i transport, poput školjki, staklenih perli, srebra i zlata.

Kad god bi se nešto koristilo kao novac, postojalo je iskušenje da se stvori više toga.

Ako bi neko pronašao vrhunsku tehnologiju za brzo stvaranje velike količine nečega, ta stvar bi izgubila vrednost.

Evropski naseljenici uspeli su da liše afrički kontinent bogatstva trgujući staklenim perlicama koje su se lako proizvodile za ljudske robove.

Isto se dogodilo sa američkim indijancima, kada su kolonisti otkrili način brze proizvodnje vampum školjki, koje su starosedeoci smatrali retkim.

Vremenom, širom sveta ljudi su shvatili da je samo zlato dovoljno retko da deluje kao novac, bez straha da bi neko drugi mogao da ga stvori u velikim količinama.

Polako smo prešli sa svetske ekonomije koja je koristila zlato kao novac na onu gde su banke izdavale papirne sertifikate kao dokaz posedovanja tog zlata.

Nixon je okončao međunarodnu konvertibilnost američkog dolara u zlato 1971. godine, privremenim rešenjem, koje je ubrzo postalo trajno.

Kraj zlatnog standarda omogućio je vladama i centralnim bankama da imaju punu dozvolu da povećavaju novčanu masu po svojoj volji, razredjujući vrednost svake novčanice u opticaju, poznatije kao umanjenje vrednosti.

Iako je izdata od strane vlade, suštinska tradicionalna valuta je novac koji svi znamo i svakodnevno koristimo, ipak je relativno novo iskustvo u opsegu svetske istorije.

Moramo verovati našim vladama da ne zloupotrebljavaju njegovo štamparije, i ne treba nam puno muke da nadjemo primere kršenja tog poverenja.

U autokratskim i centralno planiranim režimima gde vlada ima prst direktno na mašini za novac, kao što je Venecuela, valuta je postala gotovo bezvredna.

Venecuelanski Bolivar prešao je sa 2 bolivara za 1 američki dolar, koliko je vredeo 2009. godine, na 250.000 bolivara za 1 američki dolar 2019. godine.

Pogledajte koliko novčanica je bilo potrebno za kupovinu piletine u Venecueli posle hiperinflacije.

Satoshi je želeo da ponudi alternativu tradicionalnoj valuti čija se ponuda uvek nepredvidivo širi.

Da bi sprečilo umanjenje vrednosti, Satoshi je dizajnirao novčani sistem gde je zaliha bila fiksna i izdavana po predvidljivoj i nepromenjivoj stopi.

Postojaće samo 21 milion Bitcoin-a.

Međutim, svaki Bitcoin se može podeliti na 100 miliona jedinica koje se sada nazivaju satoshis (sats-ovi), što će činiti ukupno 2,1 kvadriliona satoshi-a u opticaju oko 2140. godine.

Pre Bitcoin-a nije bilo moguće sprečiti beskrajnu reprodukciju digitalnih sredstava.

Kopirati digitalnu knjigu, audio datoteku ili video zapis i poslati ga prijatelju, je jeftino i lako.

Jedini izuzeci od toga su digitalna sredstva koja kontrolišu posrednici.

Na primer, kada iznajmite film sa iTunes-a, možete ga gledati na vašem uređaju samo zato što iTunes kontroliše distribuciju tog filma i može ga zaustaviti nakon perioda njegovog iznajmljivanja.

Slično tome, vaša banka kontroliše vaš digitalni novac. Zadatak banke je da vodi evidenciju koliko novca imate.

Ako ga prenesete nekom drugom, oni će odobriti ili odbiti takav prenos.

Bitcoin je prvi digitalni sistem koji sprovodi oskudicu bez posrednika i prvo je sredstvo poznato čovečanstvu čija je nepromenljiva ponuda i raspored izdavanja poznat unapred.

Ni plemeniti metali poput zlata nemaju ovo svojstvo, jer uvek možemo iskopati sve više i više zlata ukoliko je to isplativo.

Zamislite da otkrijemo asteroid koji sadrži deset puta više zlata nego što ga imamo na zemlji.

Šta bi se dogodilo sa cenom zlata uzimajući u obzir tako obilnu ponudu? Bitcoin je imun na takva otkrića i manipulisanje nabavkom.

Jednostavno je nemoguće proizvesti više od toga (21 miliona).

„Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve. […] Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac “

Naše trenutne metode obezbeđivanja novca, poput stavljanja u banku, oslanjaju se na poverenje nekome drugom da će obaviti taj posao.

Poverenje u takvog posrednika ne zahteva samo sigurnost da on neće učiniti nešto zlonamerno ili glupo, već i da vlada neće zapleniti ili zamrznuti vaša sredstva vršeći pritisak na ovog posrednika.

Međutim, videli smo bezbroj puta da vlade mogu, i zaista uskraćuju pristup novcu kada se osećaju ugroženo.

Nekom ko živi u Sjedinjenim Državama ili nekoj drugoj visoko regulisanoj ekonomiji možda zvuči glupo da razmišlja da se probudi sa oduzetim novcem, ali to se događa stalno.

PayPal mi je zamrzao sredstva jednostavno zato par meseci nisam koristio svoj račun.

Trebalo mi je više od nedelju dana da vratim pristup „svom“ novcu.

Srećan sam što živim u Europi, gde bih se bar mogao nadati da ću potražiti neko pravno rešenje ako mi PayPal zamrzne sredstva i gde imam osnovno poverenje da moja vlada i banka neće ukrasti moj novac.

Mnogo gore stvari su se dogodile, i trenutno se dešavaju, u zemljama sa manje slobode.

Banke su se zatvorile tokom kolapsa valuta u Grčkoj.

Banke na Kipru su koristile kaucije da konfiskuju sredstva od svojih klijenata.

Indijska vlada je proglasila određene novčanice bezvrednim.

Bivši SSSR, u kojem sam odrastao, imao je ekonomiju pod kontrolom vlade što je dovelo do ogromnih nestašica robe.

Bilo je nezakonito posedovati strane valute kao što je američki dolar.

Kada smo poželeli da odemo, mojoj porodici je bilo dozvoljeno da zameni samo ograničenu količinu novca po osobi za američke dolare po zvaničnom kursu koji je bio u velikoj meri različit od pravog kursa slobodnog tržišta.

U stvari, vlada nam je oduzela ono malo bogatstva koje smo imali koristeći gvozdeni stisak na ekonomiji i kretanju kapitala.

Autokratske zemlje imaju tendenciju da sprovode strogu ekonomsku kontrolu, sprečavajući ljude da na slobodnom tržištu povuku svoj novac iz banaka, iznesu ga iz zemlje ili da ga razmene u ne još uvek bezvredne valute poput američkog dolara.

To omogućava vladinoj slobodnoj vladavini da primeni sulude ekonomske eksperimente poput socijalističkog sistema SSSR-a.

Bitcoin se ne oslanja na poverenje u treću stranu da bi osigurao vaš novac.

Umesto toga, Bitcoin onemogućava drugima pristup vašim novčićima bez jedinstvenog ključa koji imate samo vi, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Držeći Bitcoin, držite ključeve sopstvene finansijske slobode. Bitcoin razdvaja novac i državu

„Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje […] poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić“

Mreža se odnosi na ideju da je gomila računara povezana i da mogu međusobno slati poruke.

Reč distribuirano znači da ne postoji centralna stranka koja kontroliše, već da svi učesnici koordiniraju medjusobno kako bi mreža bila uspešna.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole, bitno je znati da niko ne vara. Ideja dvostruke potrošnje odnosi se na mogućnost trošenja istog novca dva puta.

Fizički novac odlazi iz vaše ruke kad ga potrošite. Međutim, digitalne transakcije se mogu kopirati baš kao muzika ili filmovi.

Kada novac šaljete preko banke, oni se pobrinu da isti novac ne možete da prebacujete dva puta.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole potreban nam je način da sprečimo ovu vrstu dvostruke potrošnje, koja je u suštini ista kao i falsifikovanje novca.

Satoshi opisuje da učesnici u Bitcoin mreži rade zajedno kako bi vremenski označili (doveli u red) transakcije kako bismo znali šta je bilo prvo.

Zbog toga možemo odbiti sve buduće pokušaje trošenja istog novca.

Satoshi se uhvatio u koštac sa nekoliko zanimljivih tehničkih problema kako bi rešio probleme privatnosti, uništavanja vrednosti i centralne kontrole u ​​trenutnim monetarnim sistemima.

Na kraju je stvorio peer to peer mrežu kojoj se svako mogao pridružiti bez otkrivanja svog identiteta ili potrebe da veruje bilo kom drugom učesniku.

Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

Doprinosi izvornom kodu Bitcoina

Kada je Bitcoin pokrenut, samo nekolicina ljudi ga je koristila i pokrenula Bitcoin softver na svojim računarima za napajanje Bitcoin mreže.

Većina ljudi u to vreme mislila je da je to šala ili da će se otkriti ozbiljni nedostaci u dizajnu sistema koji će ga učiniti neizvodljivim.

Vremenom se mreži pridružilo sve više ljudi koji su pomoću svojih računara dodali sigurnost mreži.

Ljudi su počeli da menjaju Bitcoin-e za robu i usluge, dajući mu stvarnu vrednost. Pojavile su se menjačnice valuta koje su menjale Bitcoin-e za gotovo sve tradicionalne valute na svetu.

Deset godina nakon izuma, Bitcoin koriste milioni ljudi sa desetinama do stotinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću besplatni Bitcoin softver, koji se razvija od strane stotina dobrovoljaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Bitcoin mreža je porasla kako bi obezbedila vrednost veću od stotine biliona dolara.

Računari koji učestvuju u zaštiti Bitcoin mreže poznati su kao rudari/majneri.

Oni rade u industrijskim operacijama širom sveta, ulažući milione dolara u specijalni rudarski hardver koji radi samo jedno: pobrinuti se da je Bitcoin najsigurnija mreža na planeti.

Rudari troše električnu energiju kako bi transakcije Bitcoin-a učinile sigurnim od modifikacija. Budući da se rudari međusobno takmiče za oskudan broj Bitcoin-a proizvedenih dnevno, oni uvek moraju da pronalaze najjeftinije izvore energije na planeti da bi ostali profitabilni.

Rudari rade na različitim mestima, od hidroelektrana u dalekim krajevima Kine do vetroparkova u Teksasu, do kanadskih naftnih polja koja proizvode gas koji bi u suprotnom bio odzračen ili spaljen u atmosferi.

Iako je Bitcoin popularna tema i o njemu se često raspravlja u medijima, procenjujemo da je samo nekoliko miliona ljudi na svetu počelo da redovno štedi Bitcoin.

Za mnoge ljude, posebno za one koji nikada nisu živeli pod represivnim režimima, ovaj izum novog oblika digitalnog novca izvan kontrole vlade može biti veoma izazovan za razumevanje i prihvatanje.

Zato sam ja ovde. Želim da vam pomognem da razumete Bitcoin i budete gospodar svoje budućnosti!

@ bbb5dda0:f09e2747

My week 19 started with a celebration of 80 years of liberation from the Germans (we love you guys now tho 🫶🏼). It feels conflicting, we're celebrating freedom, whilst cutting down those freedoms day by day more rapidly as time progresses. Should we still celebrate...?

The current path back to freedom can be mundane in the day to day but I wouldn't wanna have it any other way. These last couple weeks I've continued working on our TollGate pipelines to facilitate our release cycle, make it faster and easier to release in quick succession. There's been a lot of details to get right, because our releases are nostr based and once people start relying on the structure of the events we can't easily change it.

A TollGateOS release event now looks like this NIP-94 file metadata event:

json { "id": "a867f15ca7edc95a69e1557539a624466147584f68c62a16c47fe9bca3778312", "pubkey": "5075e61f0b048148b60105c1dd72bbeae1957336ae5824087e52efa374f8416a", "created_at": 1747475980, "kind": 1063, "tags": [ [ "url", "https://blossom.swissdash.site/9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e.bin" ], [ "m", "application/octet-stream" ], [ "x", "9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e" ], [ "ox", "9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e" ], [ "architecture", "aarch64_cortex-a53" ], [ "device_id", "glinet_gl-mt3000" ], [ "supported_devices", "glinet,gl-mt3000 glinet,mt3000-snand" ], [ "openwrt_version", "24.10.1" ], [ "tollgate_os_version", "v0.0.2" ], [ "release_channel", "stable" ] ], "content": "TollGate OS Firmware for glinet_gl-mt3000", "sig": "1d050233428304685d202e954cb48714c800a7ca5f2d6a8d8fd657a775b9c51bf83364505311859c846e25098168a8ff309af2308712aafe634fcbdc96fcd84a" }

One of the missing links was the supported_devices tag. That is because the installer checks the device name by ssh-ing into the router and it returns the glinet,gl-mt3000 which doesn't properly translate into the device_id, which is what's used for compiling the OS. So this helps us to do the lookups and compatibility checks in the installer.

I also worked on: - getting the versioning of the tollgate-basic package's naming in line with the OpenWRT naming convention. - Rework versioning for dev builds into [branchname].[commit_height].[commit_hash] which will show up on the dev release_channel releases. - Getting an initial release of the tollgate-installer done, so we can easily flash a bunch of routers to become TollGates.

Bright minds in Prague

I met up with some bright minds from the space in Prague where @cobrador and i did a workshop on turning routers into TollGates and start earning sats. As is part of building things, things break and people make us aware of issues that we wouldn't foresee. Like for some reason Minibits cashu tokens being rejected, which is likely because of the memo's but we still need to dive into that issue.

Also we released [v0.0.2] of TollGate OS, which now includes an updater feature, again for faster release cycles. Currently we're focussing on getting a v0.0.3 out quickly with fixes for the user feedback we've gathered so far!

Receipt.Cash

I also, kind of unplanned, saw an opportunity to shill Receipt.Cash. I'd made a few improvements recently and it's ready enough for reckless people to try it out ;).

| | | | | | Payer Scans any fiat receipt & Share link with friends | Friends tap what they had, price is auto-converted to sats, then pay by Lightning or Cashu. | If you want to try it, BE CAREFUL! It is highly experimental and you might lose your sats, no refunds!

Source Code here.

@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c

Básico

bash lsblk # Lista todos os diretorios montados.

Para criar o sistema de arquivos:

bash mkfs.btrfs -L "ThePool" -f /dev/sdx

Criando um subvolume:

bash btrfs subvolume create SubVol

Montando Sistema de Arquivos:

bash mount -o compress=zlib,subvol=SubVol,autodefrag /dev/sdx /mnt

Lista os discos formatados no diretório:

bash btrfs filesystem show /mnt

Adiciona novo disco ao subvolume:

bash btrfs device add -f /dev/sdy /mnt

Lista novamente os discos do subvolume:

bash btrfs filesystem show /mnt

Exibe uso dos discos do subvolume:

bash btrfs filesystem df /mnt

Balancea os dados entre os discos sobre raid1:

bash btrfs filesystem balance start -dconvert=raid1 -mconvert=raid1 /mnt

Scrub é uma passagem por todos os dados e metadados do sistema de arquivos e verifica as somas de verificação. Se uma cópia válida estiver disponível (perfis de grupo de blocos replicados), a danificada será reparada. Todas as cópias dos perfis replicados são validadas.

iniciar o processo de depuração :

bash btrfs scrub start /mnt

ver o status do processo de depuração Btrfs em execução:

bash btrfs scrub status /mnt

ver o status do scrub Btrfs para cada um dos dispositivos

bash btrfs scrub status -d / data btrfs scrub cancel / data

Para retomar o processo de depuração do Btrfs que você cancelou ou pausou:

btrfs scrub resume / data

Listando os subvolumes:

bash btrfs subvolume list /Reports

Criando um instantâneo dos subvolumes:

Aqui, estamos criando um instantâneo de leitura e gravação chamado snap de marketing do subvolume de marketing.

bash btrfs subvolume snapshot /Reports/marketing /Reports/marketing-snap

Além disso, você pode criar um instantâneo somente leitura usando o sinalizador -r conforme mostrado. O marketing-rosnap é um instantâneo somente leitura do subvolume de marketing

bash btrfs subvolume snapshot -r /Reports/marketing /Reports/marketing-rosnap

Forçar a sincronização do sistema de arquivos usando o utilitário 'sync'

Para forçar a sincronização do sistema de arquivos, invoque a opção de sincronização conforme mostrado. Observe que o sistema de arquivos já deve estar montado para que o processo de sincronização continue com sucesso.

bash btrfs filsystem sync /Reports

Para excluir o dispositivo do sistema de arquivos, use o comando device delete conforme mostrado.

bash btrfs device delete /dev/sdc /Reports

Para sondar o status de um scrub, use o comando scrub status com a opção -dR .

bash btrfs scrub status -dR / Relatórios

Para cancelar a execução do scrub, use o comando scrub cancel .

bash $ sudo btrfs scrub cancel / Reports

Para retomar ou continuar com uma depuração interrompida anteriormente, execute o comando de cancelamento de depuração

bash sudo btrfs scrub resume /Reports

mostra o uso do dispositivo de armazenamento:

btrfs filesystem usage /data

Para distribuir os dados, metadados e dados do sistema em todos os dispositivos de armazenamento do RAID (incluindo o dispositivo de armazenamento recém-adicionado) montados no diretório /data , execute o seguinte comando:

sudo btrfs balance start --full-balance /data

Pode demorar um pouco para espalhar os dados, metadados e dados do sistema em todos os dispositivos de armazenamento do RAID se ele contiver muitos dados.

Opções importantes de montagem Btrfs

Nesta seção, vou explicar algumas das importantes opções de montagem do Btrfs. Então vamos começar.

As opções de montagem Btrfs mais importantes são:

**1. acl e noacl

**ACL gerencia permissões de usuários e grupos para os arquivos/diretórios do sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

A opção de montagem acl Btrfs habilita ACL. Para desabilitar a ACL, você pode usar a opção de montagem noacl .

Por padrão, a ACL está habilitada. Portanto, o sistema de arquivos Btrfs usa a opção de montagem acl por padrão.

**2. autodefrag e noautodefrag

**Desfragmentar um sistema de arquivos Btrfs melhorará o desempenho do sistema de arquivos reduzindo a fragmentação de dados.

A opção de montagem autodefrag permite a desfragmentação automática do sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

A opção de montagem noautodefrag desativa a desfragmentação automática do sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

Por padrão, a desfragmentação automática está desabilitada. Portanto, o sistema de arquivos Btrfs usa a opção de montagem noautodefrag por padrão.

**3. compactar e compactar-forçar

**Controla a compactação de dados no nível do sistema de arquivos do sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

A opção compactar compacta apenas os arquivos que valem a pena compactar (se compactar o arquivo economizar espaço em disco).

A opção compress-force compacta todos os arquivos do sistema de arquivos Btrfs, mesmo que a compactação do arquivo aumente seu tamanho.

O sistema de arquivos Btrfs suporta muitos algoritmos de compactação e cada um dos algoritmos de compactação possui diferentes níveis de compactação.

Os algoritmos de compactação suportados pelo Btrfs são: lzo , zlib (nível 1 a 9) e zstd (nível 1 a 15).

Você pode especificar qual algoritmo de compactação usar para o sistema de arquivos Btrfs com uma das seguintes opções de montagem:

• compress=algoritmo:nível
• compress-force=algoritmo:nível

Para obter mais informações, consulte meu artigo Como habilitar a compactação do sistema de arquivos Btrfs .

**4. subvol e subvolid

**Estas opções de montagem são usadas para montar separadamente um subvolume específico de um sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

A opção de montagem subvol é usada para montar o subvolume de um sistema de arquivos Btrfs usando seu caminho relativo.

A opção de montagem subvolid é usada para montar o subvolume de um sistema de arquivos Btrfs usando o ID do subvolume.

Para obter mais informações, consulte meu artigo Como criar e montar subvolumes Btrfs .

**5. dispositivo

A opção de montagem de dispositivo** é usada no sistema de arquivos Btrfs de vários dispositivos ou RAID Btrfs.

Em alguns casos, o sistema operacional pode falhar ao detectar os dispositivos de armazenamento usados em um sistema de arquivos Btrfs de vários dispositivos ou RAID Btrfs. Nesses casos, você pode usar a opção de montagem do dispositivo para especificar os dispositivos que deseja usar para o sistema de arquivos de vários dispositivos Btrfs ou RAID.

Você pode usar a opção de montagem de dispositivo várias vezes para carregar diferentes dispositivos de armazenamento para o sistema de arquivos de vários dispositivos Btrfs ou RAID.

Você pode usar o nome do dispositivo (ou seja, sdb , sdc ) ou UUID , UUID_SUB ou PARTUUID do dispositivo de armazenamento com a opção de montagem do dispositivo para identificar o dispositivo de armazenamento.

Por exemplo,

• dispositivo=/dev/sdb
• dispositivo=/dev/sdb,dispositivo=/dev/sdc
• dispositivo=UUID_SUB=490a263d-eb9a-4558-931e-998d4d080c5d
• device=UUID_SUB=490a263d-eb9a-4558-931e-998d4d080c5d,device=UUID_SUB=f7ce4875-0874-436a-b47d-3edef66d3424

**6. degraded

A opção de montagem degradada** permite que um RAID Btrfs seja montado com menos dispositivos de armazenamento do que o perfil RAID requer.

Por exemplo, o perfil raid1 requer a presença de 2 dispositivos de armazenamento. Se um dos dispositivos de armazenamento não estiver disponível em qualquer caso, você usa a opção de montagem degradada para montar o RAID mesmo que 1 de 2 dispositivos de armazenamento esteja disponível.

**7. commit

A opção commit** mount é usada para definir o intervalo (em segundos) dentro do qual os dados serão gravados no dispositivo de armazenamento.

O padrão é definido como 30 segundos.

Para definir o intervalo de confirmação para 15 segundos, você pode usar a opção de montagem commit=15 (digamos).

**8. ssd e nossd

A opção de montagem ssd** informa ao sistema de arquivos Btrfs que o sistema de arquivos está usando um dispositivo de armazenamento SSD, e o sistema de arquivos Btrfs faz a otimização SSD necessária.

A opção de montagem nossd desativa a otimização do SSD.

O sistema de arquivos Btrfs detecta automaticamente se um SSD é usado para o sistema de arquivos Btrfs. Se um SSD for usado, a opção de montagem de SSD será habilitada. Caso contrário, a opção de montagem nossd é habilitada.

**9. ssd_spread e nossd_spread

A opção de montagem ssd_spread** tenta alocar grandes blocos contínuos de espaço não utilizado do SSD. Esse recurso melhora o desempenho de SSDs de baixo custo (baratos).

A opção de montagem nossd_spread desativa o recurso ssd_spread .

O sistema de arquivos Btrfs detecta automaticamente se um SSD é usado para o sistema de arquivos Btrfs. Se um SSD for usado, a opção de montagem ssd_spread será habilitada. Caso contrário, a opção de montagem nossd_spread é habilitada.

**10. descarte e nodiscard

Se você estiver usando um SSD que suporte TRIM enfileirado assíncrono (SATA rev3.1), a opção de montagem de descarte** permitirá o descarte de blocos de arquivos liberados. Isso melhorará o desempenho do SSD.

Se o SSD não suportar TRIM enfileirado assíncrono, a opção de montagem de descarte prejudicará o desempenho do SSD. Nesse caso, a opção de montagem nodiscard deve ser usada.

Por padrão, a opção de montagem nodiscard é usada.

**11. norecovery

Se a opção de montagem norecovery** for usada, o sistema de arquivos Btrfs não tentará executar a operação de recuperação de dados no momento da montagem.

**12. usebackuproot e nousebackuproot

Se a opção de montagem usebackuproot for usada, o sistema de arquivos Btrfs tentará recuperar qualquer raiz de árvore ruim/corrompida no momento da montagem. O sistema de arquivos Btrfs pode armazenar várias raízes de árvore no sistema de arquivos. A opção de montagem usebackuproot** procurará uma boa raiz de árvore e usará a primeira boa que encontrar.

A opção de montagem nousebackuproot não verificará ou recuperará raízes de árvore inválidas/corrompidas no momento da montagem. Este é o comportamento padrão do sistema de arquivos Btrfs.

**13. space_cache, space_cache=version, nospace_cache e clear_cache

A opção de montagem space_cache** é usada para controlar o cache de espaço livre. O cache de espaço livre é usado para melhorar o desempenho da leitura do espaço livre do grupo de blocos do sistema de arquivos Btrfs na memória (RAM).

O sistema de arquivos Btrfs suporta 2 versões do cache de espaço livre: v1 (padrão) e v2

O mecanismo de cache de espaço livre v2 melhora o desempenho de sistemas de arquivos grandes (tamanho de vários terabytes).

Você pode usar a opção de montagem space_cache=v1 para definir a v1 do cache de espaço livre e a opção de montagem space_cache=v2 para definir a v2 do cache de espaço livre.

A opção de montagem clear_cache é usada para limpar o cache de espaço livre.

Quando o cache de espaço livre v2 é criado, o cache deve ser limpo para criar um cache de espaço livre v1 .

Portanto, para usar o cache de espaço livre v1 após a criação do cache de espaço livre v2 , as opções de montagem clear_cache e space_cache=v1 devem ser combinadas: clear_cache,space_cache=v1

A opção de montagem nospace_cache é usada para desabilitar o cache de espaço livre.

Para desabilitar o cache de espaço livre após a criação do cache v1 ou v2 , as opções de montagem nospace_cache e clear_cache devem ser combinadas: clear_cache,nosapce_cache

**14. skip_balance

Por padrão, a operação de balanceamento interrompida/pausada de um sistema de arquivos Btrfs de vários dispositivos ou RAID Btrfs será retomada automaticamente assim que o sistema de arquivos Btrfs for montado. Para desabilitar a retomada automática da operação de equilíbrio interrompido/pausado em um sistema de arquivos Btrfs de vários dispositivos ou RAID Btrfs, você pode usar a opção de montagem skip_balance .**

**15. datacow e nodatacow

A opção datacow** mount habilita o recurso Copy-on-Write (CoW) do sistema de arquivos Btrfs. É o comportamento padrão.

Se você deseja desabilitar o recurso Copy-on-Write (CoW) do sistema de arquivos Btrfs para os arquivos recém-criados, monte o sistema de arquivos Btrfs com a opção de montagem nodatacow .

**16. datasum e nodatasum

A opção datasum** mount habilita a soma de verificação de dados para arquivos recém-criados do sistema de arquivos Btrfs. Este é o comportamento padrão.

Se você não quiser que o sistema de arquivos Btrfs faça a soma de verificação dos dados dos arquivos recém-criados, monte o sistema de arquivos Btrfs com a opção de montagem nodatasum .

Perfis Btrfs

Um perfil Btrfs é usado para informar ao sistema de arquivos Btrfs quantas cópias dos dados/metadados devem ser mantidas e quais níveis de RAID devem ser usados para os dados/metadados. O sistema de arquivos Btrfs contém muitos perfis. Entendê-los o ajudará a configurar um RAID Btrfs da maneira que você deseja.

Os perfis Btrfs disponíveis são os seguintes:

single : Se o perfil único for usado para os dados/metadados, apenas uma cópia dos dados/metadados será armazenada no sistema de arquivos, mesmo se você adicionar vários dispositivos de armazenamento ao sistema de arquivos. Assim, 100% do espaço em disco de cada um dos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos pode ser utilizado.

dup : Se o perfil dup for usado para os dados/metadados, cada um dos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos manterá duas cópias dos dados/metadados. Assim, 50% do espaço em disco de cada um dos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos pode ser utilizado.

raid0 : No perfil raid0 , os dados/metadados serão divididos igualmente em todos os dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Nesta configuração, não haverá dados/metadados redundantes (duplicados). Assim, 100% do espaço em disco de cada um dos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos pode ser usado. Se, em qualquer caso, um dos dispositivos de armazenamento falhar, todo o sistema de arquivos será corrompido. Você precisará de pelo menos dois dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid0 .

raid1 : No perfil raid1 , duas cópias dos dados/metadados serão armazenadas nos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Nesta configuração, a matriz RAID pode sobreviver a uma falha de unidade. Mas você pode usar apenas 50% do espaço total em disco. Você precisará de pelo menos dois dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid1 .

raid1c3 : No perfil raid1c3 , três cópias dos dados/metadados serão armazenadas nos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Nesta configuração, a matriz RAID pode sobreviver a duas falhas de unidade, mas você pode usar apenas 33% do espaço total em disco. Você precisará de pelo menos três dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid1c3 .

raid1c4 : No perfil raid1c4 , quatro cópias dos dados/metadados serão armazenadas nos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Nesta configuração, a matriz RAID pode sobreviver a três falhas de unidade, mas você pode usar apenas 25% do espaço total em disco. Você precisará de pelo menos quatro dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid1c4 .

raid10 : No perfil raid10 , duas cópias dos dados/metadados serão armazenadas nos dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos, como no perfil raid1 . Além disso, os dados/metadados serão divididos entre os dispositivos de armazenamento, como no perfil raid0 .

O perfil raid10 é um híbrido dos perfis raid1 e raid0 . Alguns dos dispositivos de armazenamento formam arrays raid1 e alguns desses arrays raid1 são usados para formar um array raid0 . Em uma configuração raid10 , o sistema de arquivos pode sobreviver a uma única falha de unidade em cada uma das matrizes raid1 .

Você pode usar 50% do espaço total em disco na configuração raid10 . Você precisará de pelo menos quatro dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid10 .

raid5 : No perfil raid5 , uma cópia dos dados/metadados será dividida entre os dispositivos de armazenamento. Uma única paridade será calculada e distribuída entre os dispositivos de armazenamento do array RAID.

Em uma configuração raid5 , o sistema de arquivos pode sobreviver a uma única falha de unidade. Se uma unidade falhar, você pode adicionar uma nova unidade ao sistema de arquivos e os dados perdidos serão calculados a partir da paridade distribuída das unidades em execução.

Você pode usar 1 00x(N-1)/N % do total de espaços em disco na configuração raid5 . Aqui, N é o número de dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Você precisará de pelo menos três dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid5 .

raid6 : No perfil raid6 , uma cópia dos dados/metadados será dividida entre os dispositivos de armazenamento. Duas paridades serão calculadas e distribuídas entre os dispositivos de armazenamento do array RAID.

Em uma configuração raid6 , o sistema de arquivos pode sobreviver a duas falhas de unidade ao mesmo tempo. Se uma unidade falhar, você poderá adicionar uma nova unidade ao sistema de arquivos e os dados perdidos serão calculados a partir das duas paridades distribuídas das unidades em execução.

Você pode usar 100x(N-2)/N % do espaço total em disco na configuração raid6 . Aqui, N é o número de dispositivos de armazenamento adicionados ao sistema de arquivos. Você precisará de pelo menos quatro dispositivos de armazenamento para configurar o sistema de arquivos Btrfs no perfil raid6 .

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ 3b3a42d3:d192e325

Atomic Signature Swaps (ASS) over Nostr is a protocol for atomically exchanging Schnorr signatures using Nostr events for orchestration. This new primitive enables multiple interesting applications like:

• Getting paid to publish specific Nostr events
• Issuing automatic payment receipts
• Contract signing in exchange for payment
• P2P asset exchanges
• Trading and enforcement of asset option contracts
• Payment in exchange for Nostr-based credentials or access tokens
• Exchanging GMs 🌞

It only requires that (i) the involved signatures be Schnorr signatures using the secp256k1 curve and that (ii) at least one of those signatures be accessible to both parties. These requirements are naturally met by Nostr events (published to relays), Taproot transactions (published to the mempool and later to the blockchain), and Cashu payments (using mints that support NUT-07, allowing any pair of these signatures to be swapped atomically.

How the Cryptographic Magic Works 🪄

This is a Schnorr signature (Zₓ, s):

s = z + H(Zₓ || P || m)⋅k

If you haven't seen it before, don't worry, neither did I until three weeks ago.

The signature scalar s is the the value a signer with private key k (and public key P = k⋅G) must calculate to prove his commitment over the message m given a randomly generated nonce z (Zₓ is just the x-coordinate of the public point Z = z⋅G). H is a hash function (sha256 with the tag "BIP0340/challenge" when dealing with BIP340), || just means to concatenate and G is the generator point of the elliptic curve, used to derive public values from private ones.

Now that you understand what this equation means, let's just rename z = r + t. We can do that, z is just a randomly generated number that can be represented as the sum of two other numbers. It also follows that z⋅G = r⋅G + t⋅G ⇔ Z = R + T. Putting it all back into the definition of a Schnorr signature we get:

s = (r + t) + H((R + T)ₓ || P || m)⋅k

Which is the same as:

s = sₐ + t where sₐ = r + H((R + T)ₓ || P || m)⋅k

sₐ is what we call the adaptor signature scalar) and t is the secret. ((R + T)ₓ, sₐ) is an incomplete signature that just becomes valid by add the secret t to the sₐ:

s = sₐ + t

What is also important for our purposes is that by getting access to the valid signature s, one can also extract t from it by just subtracting sₐ:

t = s - sₐ

The specific value of t depends on our choice of the public point T, since R is just a public point derived from a randomly generated nonce r.

So how do we choose T so that it requires the secret t to be the signature over a specific message m' by an specific public key P'? (without knowing the value of t)

Let's start with the definition of t as a valid Schnorr signature by P' over m':

t = r' + H(R'ₓ || P' || m')⋅k' ⇔ t⋅G = r'⋅G + H(R'ₓ || P' || m')⋅k'⋅G

That is the same as:

T = R' + H(R'ₓ || P' || m')⋅P'

Notice that in order to calculate the appropriate T that requires t to be an specific signature scalar, we only need to know the public nonce R' used to generate that signature.

In summary: in order to atomically swap Schnorr signatures, one party P' must provide a public nonce R', while the other party P must provide an adaptor signature using that nonce:

sₐ = r + H((R + T)ₓ || P || m)⋅k where T = R' + H(R'ₓ || P' || m')⋅P'

P' (the nonce provider) can then add his own signature t to the adaptor signature sₐ in order to get a valid signature by P, i.e. s = sₐ + t. When he publishes this signature (as a Nostr event, Cashu transaction or Taproot transaction), it becomes accessible to P that can now extract the signature t by P' and also make use of it.

Important considerations

A signature may not be useful at the end of the swap if it unlocks funds that have already been spent, or that are vulnerable to fee bidding wars.

When a swap involves a Taproot UTXO, it must always use a 2-of-2 multisig timelock to avoid those issues.

Cashu tokens do not require this measure when its signature is revealed first, because the mint won't reveal the other signature if they can't be successfully claimed, but they also require a 2-of-2 multisig timelock when its signature is only revealed last (what is unavoidable in cashu for cashu swaps).

For Nostr events, whoever receives the signature first needs to publish it to at least one relay that is accessible by the other party. This is a reasonable expectation in most cases, but may be an issue if the event kind involved is meant to be used privately.

How to Orchestrate the Swap over Nostr?

Before going into the specific event kinds, it is important to recognize what are the requirements they must meet and what are the concerns they must address. There are mainly three requirements:

• Both parties must agree on the messages they are going to sign
• One party must provide a public nonce
• The other party must provide an adaptor signature using that nonce

There is also a fundamental asymmetry in the roles of both parties, resulting in the following significant downsides for the party that generates the adaptor signature:

• NIP-07 and remote signers do not currently support the generation of adaptor signatures, so he must either insert his nsec in the client or use a fork of another signer
• There is an overhead of retrieving the completed signature containing the secret, either from the blockchain, mint endpoint or finding the appropriate relay
• There is risk he may not get his side of the deal if the other party only uses his signature privately, as I have already mentioned
• There is risk of losing funds by not extracting or using the signature before its timelock expires. The other party has no risk since his own signature won't be exposed by just not using the signature he received.

The protocol must meet all those requirements, allowing for some kind of role negotiation and while trying to reduce the necessary hops needed to complete the swap.

Swap Proposal Event (kind:455)

This event enables a proposer and his counterparty to agree on the specific messages whose signatures they intend to exchange. The content field is the following stringified JSON:

{     "give": <signature spec (required)>,     "take": <signature spec (required)>,     "exp": <expiration timestamp (optional)>,     "role": "<adaptor | nonce (optional)>",     "description": "<Info about the proposal (optional)>",     "nonce": "<Signature public nonce (optional)>",     "enc_s": "<Encrypted signature scalar (optional)>" }

The field role indicates what the proposer will provide during the swap, either the nonce or the adaptor. When this optional field is not provided, the counterparty may decide whether he will send a nonce back in a Swap Nonce event or a Swap Adaptor event using the nonce (optionally) provided by in the Swap Proposal in order to avoid one hop of interaction.

The enc_s field may be used to store the encrypted scalar of the signature associated with the nonce, since this information is necessary later when completing the adaptor signature received from the other party.

A signature spec specifies the type and all necessary information for producing and verifying a given signature. In the case of signatures for Nostr events, it contain a template with all the fields, except pubkey, id and sig:

{ "type": "nostr", "template": { "kind": "<kind>"        "content": "<content>"        "tags": [ … ],        "created_at": "<created_at>" } }

In the case of Cashu payments, a simplified signature spec just needs to specify the payment amount and an array of mints trusted by the proposer:

{   "type": "cashu",   "amount": "<amount>",   "mint": ["<acceptable mint_url>", …] }

This works when the payer provides the adaptor signature, but it still needs to be extended to also work when the payer is the one receiving the adaptor signature. In the later case, the signature spec must also include a timelock and the derived public keys Y of each Cashu Proof, but for now let's just ignore this situation. It should be mentioned that the mint must be trusted by both parties and also support Token state check (NUT-07) for revealing the completed adaptor signature and P2PK spending conditions (NUT-11) for the cryptographic scheme to work.

The tags are:

• "p", the proposal counterparty's public key (required)
• "a", a kind:30455 Swap Listing event or an application specific version of it (optional)

Forget about this Swap Listing event for now, I will get to it later...

Swap Nonce Event (kind:456) - Optional

This is an optional event for the Swap Proposal receiver to provide the public nonce of his signature when the proposal does not include a nonce or when he does not want to provide the adaptor signature due to the downsides previously mentioned. The content field is the following stringified JSON:

{     "nonce": "<Signature public nonce>",     "enc_s": "<Encrypted signature scalar (optional)>" }

And the tags must contain:

• "e", a kind:455 Swap Proposal Event (required)
• "p", the counterparty's public key (required)

Swap Adaptor Event (kind:457)

The content field is the following stringified JSON:

{ "adaptors": [ {         "sa": "<Adaptor signature scalar>",         "R": "<Signer's public nonce (including parity byte)>",         "T": "<Adaptor point (including parity byte)>",         "Y": "<Cashu proof derived public key (if applicable)>",     }, …],     "cashu": "<Cashu V4 token (if applicable)>" }

And the tags must contain:

• "e", a kind:455 Swap Proposal Event (required)
• "p", the counterparty's public key (required)

Discoverability

The Swap Listing event previously mentioned as an optional tag in the Swap Proposal may be used to find an appropriate counterparty for a swap. It allows a user to announce what he wants to accomplish, what his requirements are and what is still open for negotiation.

Swap Listing Event (kind:30455)

The content field is the following stringified JSON:

{ "description": "<Information about the listing (required)>", "give": <partial signature spec (optional)>, "take": <partial signature spec (optional)>, "examples: [<take signature spec>], // optional "exp": <expiration timestamp (optional)>, "role": "<adaptor | nonce (optional)>" }

The description field describes the restrictions on counterparties and signatures the user is willing to accept.

A partial signature spec is an incomplete signature spec used in Swap Proposal events kind:455 where omitting fields signals that they are still open for negotiation.

The examples field is an array of signature specs the user would be willing to take.

The tags are:

• "d", a unique listing id (required)
• "s", the status of the listing draft | open | closed (required)
• "t", topics related to this listing (optional)
• "p", public keys to notify about the proposal (optional)

Application Specific Swap Listings

Since Swap Listings are still fairly generic, it is expected that specific use cases define new event kinds based on the generic listing. Those application specific swap listing would be easier to filter by clients and may impose restrictions and add new fields and/or tags. The following are some examples under development:

Sponsored Events

This listing is designed for users looking to promote content on the Nostr network, as well as for those who want to monetize their accounts by sharing curated sponsored content with their existing audiences.

It follows the same format as the generic Swap Listing event, but uses the kind:30456 instead.

The following new tags are included:

• "k", event kind being sponsored (required)
• "title", campaign title (optional)

It is required that at least one signature spec (give and/or take) must have "type": "nostr" and also contain the following tag ["sponsor", "<pubkey>", "<attestation>"] with the sponsor's public key and his signature over the signature spec without the sponsor tag as his attestation. This last requirement enables clients to disclose and/or filter sponsored events.

Asset Swaps

This listing is designed for users looking for counterparties to swap different assets that can be transferred using Schnorr signatures, like any unit of Cashu tokens, Bitcoin or other asset IOUs issued using Taproot.

It follows the same format as the generic Swap Listing event, but uses the kind:30457 instead.

It requires the following additional tags:

• "t", asset pair to be swapped (e.g. "btcusd")
• "t", asset being offered (e.g. "btc")
• "t", accepted payment method (e.g. "cashu", "taproot")

Swap Negotiation

From finding an appropriate Swap Listing to publishing a Swap Proposal, there may be some kind of negotiation between the involved parties, e.g. agreeing on the amount to be paid by one of the parties or the exact content of a Nostr event signed by the other party. There are many ways to accomplish that and clients may implement it as they see fit for their specific goals. Some suggestions are:

• Adding kind:1111 Comments to the Swap Listing or an existing Swap Proposal
• Exchanging tentative Swap Proposals back and forth until an agreement is reached
• Simple exchanges of DMs
• Out of band communication (e.g. Signal)

Work to be done

I've been refining this specification as I develop some proof-of-concept clients to experience its flaws and trade-offs in practice. I left the signature spec for Taproot signatures out of the current document as I still have to experiment with it. I will probably find some important orchestration issues related to dealing with 2-of-2 multisig timelocks, which also affects Cashu transactions when spent last, that may require further adjustments to what was presented here.

The main goal of this article is to find other people interested in this concept and willing to provide valuable feedback before a PR is opened in the NIPs repository for broader discussions.

References

• GM Swap- Nostr client for atomically exchanging GM notes. Live demo available here.
• Sig4Sats Script - A Typescript script demonstrating the swap of a Cashu payment for a signed Nostr event.
• Loudr- Nostr client under development for sponsoring the publication of Nostr events. Live demo available at loudr.me.
• Poelstra, A. (2017). Scriptless Scripts. Blockstream Research. https://github.com/BlockstreamResearch/scriptless-scripts

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Descrição da empresa

Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.

A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.

Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.

acao wege3

Vendendo soluções para os clientes

"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”

Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.

Visão geral da empresa

A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.

Mercado que atua

O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.

A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.

Mercado

Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!

As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.

Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:

Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.

Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.

Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.

Materia sobre carros eletricos

Oportunidades que o ativo traz

Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:

1. Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais

   Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.

2. Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)

   Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.

3. Motores Comerciais e Appliance

   O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.

cotacao wege3

Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.

Riscos

Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:

1. Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
2. Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
3. Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.

trump

Catalisadores

Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:

distribuicao receita

• Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
• Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
• As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.

aquisicao wege

Faq

Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?

13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.

WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?

Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.

O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?

A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.

Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?

A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.

Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?

O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.

Bio

Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!

Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referencia

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/50c1bd3e-8ac6-42d9-884f-b9d69f690602/161a9930-5b12-3b03-758b-3b6d2b725211?origin=1

https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

🏌️ Monday, May 26 – Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kickoff Party

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada\ Event: 2nd Annual Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kick Off Party"\ Where: Bali Hai Golf Clubhouse, 5160 S Las Vegas Blvd, Las Vegas, NV 89119\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

Details:

• The week tees off in style with the Bitcoin Golf Championship. Swing clubs by day and swing to music by night.

• Live performances from Nostr-powered acts courtesy of Tunestr, including Ainsley Costello and others.

• Stop by the Purple Pill Booth hosted by Derek and Tanja, who will be on-boarding golfers and attendees to the decentralized social future with Nostr.

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💬 May 27–29 – Bitcoin 2025 Conference at the Las Vegas Convention Center

Location: The Venetian Resort\ Main Attraction for Nostr Fans: The Nostr Lounge\ When: All day, Tuesday through Thursday\ Where: Right outside the Open Source Stage\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

Come chill at the Nostr Lounge, your home base for all things decentralized social. With seating for \~50, comfy couches, high-tops, and good vibes, it’s the perfect space to meet developers, community leaders, and curious newcomers building the future of censorship-resistant communication.

Bonus: Right across the aisle, you’ll find Shopstr, a decentralized marketplace app built on Nostr. Stop by their booth to explore how peer-to-peer commerce works in a truly open ecosystem.

Daily Highlights at the Lounge:

• ☕️ Hang out casually or sit down for a deeper conversation about the Nostr protocol

• 🔧 1:1 demos from app teams

• 🛍️ Merch available onsite

• 🧠 Impromptu lightning talks

• 🎤 Scheduled Meetups (details below)

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🎯 Nostr Lounge Meetups

Wednesday, May 28 @ 1:00 PM

• Damus Meetup: Come meet the team behind Damus, the OG Nostr app for iOS that helped kickstart the social revolution. They'll also be showcasing their new cross-platform app, Notedeck, designed for a more unified Nostr experience across devices. Grab some merch, get a demo, and connect directly with the developers.

Thursday, May 29 @ 1:00 PM

• Primal Meetup: Dive into Primal, the slickest Nostr experience available on web, Android, and iOS. With a built-in wallet, zapping your favorite creators and friends has never been easier. The team will be on-site for hands-on demos, Q\&A, merch giveaways, and deeper discussions on building the social layer of Bitcoin.

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🎙️ Nostr Talks at Bitcoin 2025

If you want to hear from the minds building decentralized social, make sure you attend these two official conference sessions:

1. FROSTR Workshop: Multisig Nostr Signing

• 🕚 Time: 11:30 AM – 12:00 PM

• 📅 Date: Wednesday, May 28

• 📍 Location: Developer Zone

• 🎤 Speaker: nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqs9etjgzjglwlaxdhsveq0qksxyh6xpdpn8ajh69ruetrug957r3qf4ggfm (Austin Kelsay) @ Voltage\ A deep-dive into FROST-based multisig key management for Nostr. Geared toward devs and power users interested in key security.

2. Panel: Decentralizing Social Media

• 🕑 Time: 2:00 PM – 2:30 PM

• 📅 Date: Thursday, May 29

• 📍 Location: Genesis Stage

• 🎙️ Moderator: nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttjv4kxz7fwv3jhyettwfhhxuewd4jsqgxnqajr23msx5malhhcz8paa2t0r70gfjpyncsqx56ztyj2nyyvlq00heps - Bitcoin Strategy @ Roxom TV

• 👥 Speakers:

• nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qqsy2ga7trfetvd3j65m3jptqw9k39wtq2mg85xz2w542p5dhg06e5qmhlpep – Early Bitcoin dev, CEO @ Sirius Business Ltd

• nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 – Analyst & Partner @ Ego Death Capital

Get the big-picture perspective on why decentralized social matters and how Nostr fits into the future of digital communication.

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🌃 NOS VEGAS Meetup & Afterparty

Date: Wednesday, May 28\ Time: 7:00 PM – 1:00 AM\ Location: We All Scream Nightclub, 517 Fremont St., Las Vegas, NV 89101\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

What to Expect:

• 🎶 Live Music Stage – Featuring Ainsley Costello, Sara Jade, Able James, Martin Groom, Bobby Shell, Jessie Lark, and other V4V artists

• 🪩 DJ Party Deck – With sets by nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cmgdae82uewd45kketyd9kxwetj9e3k7mf6xs6rgqgcwaehxw309ahx7um5wgh85mm694ek2unk9ehhyecqyq7hpmq75krx2zsywntgtpz5yzwjyg2c7sreardcqmcp0m67xrnkwylzzk4 , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgkwaehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejqqg967faye3x6fxgnul77ej23l5aew8yj0x2e4a3tq2mkrgzrcvecfsk8xlu3 , and more DJs throwing down

• 🛰️ Live-streamed via Tunestr

• 🧠 Nostr Education – Talks by nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq37amnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3dwfjkccte9ejx2un9ddex7umn9ekk2tcqyqlhwrt96wnkf2w9edgr4cfruchvwkv26q6asdhz4qg08pm6w3djg3c8m4j , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqg7waehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejz7ur0wp6kcctjqqspywh6ulgc0w3k6mwum97m7jkvtxh0lcjr77p9jtlc7f0d27wlxpslwvhau , nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3vamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd33xgetk9en82m30qqsgqke57uygxl0m8elstq26c4mq2erz3dvdtgxwswwvhdh0xcs04sc4u9p7d , nostr:nprofile1q9z8wumn8ghj7erzx3jkvmmzw4eny6tvw368wdt8da4kxamrdvek76mrwg6rwdngw94k67t3v36k77tev3kx7vn2xa5kjem9dp4hjepwd3hkxctvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnhd9hx2qpqyaul8k059377u9lsu67de7y637w4jtgeuwcmh5n7788l6xnlnrgssuy4zk , nostr:nprofile1qy28wue69uhnzvpwxqhrqt33xgmn5dfsx5cqz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmnyqqswavgevxe9gs43vwylumr7h656mu9vxmw4j6qkafc3nefphzpph8ssvcgf8 , and more.

• 🧾 Vendors & Project Booths – Explore new tools and services

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| | | | | ----------- | -------------------- | ------------------- | | Time | Name | Topic | | 7:30-7:50 | Derek | Nostr for Beginners | | 8:00-8:20 | Mark & Paul | Primal | | 8:30-8:50 | Terry | Damus | | 9:00-9:20 | OpenMike and Ainsley | V4V | | 09:30-09:50 | The Space | Space |

This is the after-party of the year for those who love freedom technology and decentralized social community. Don’t miss it.

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Final Thoughts

Whether you're there to learn, network, party, or build, Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas has a packed week of Nostr-friendly programming. Be sure to catch all the events, visit the Nostr Lounge, and experience the growing decentralized social revolution.

🟣 Find us. Flock with us. Purple pill someone.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Definisanje novca
2. Šta je sredstvo razmene?
3. Šta je obračunska jedinica?
4. Šta je zaliha vrednosti?
5. Zašto su važne funkcije novca?
6. Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije
7. Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle
8. Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar
9. Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?
10. Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?
11. Efikasnija Ušteda Novca
12. Zasluge
13. Molim vas da šerujete!

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Google izveštava o stalnom povećanju interesa u svetu za pitanje „Šta je novac?“ koji se postavlja iz godine u godinu, od 2004. do 2021., a sa naglim porastom nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine.

I izgleda se da niko nema dobar odgovor za to.

Godišnji proseci mesečnih interesa za pretragu. 100 predstavlja najveći interes za pretragu tokom čitavog perioda, koji se dogodio u decembru 2019. Podaci sa Google Trends-a.

Međutim, odgovaranje na ovo naizgled jednostavno pitanje pomoći će vam da razjasnite ulogu novca u vašem životu. Jednom kada shvatite kako novac funkcioniše, tačno ćete videti i zašto svet danas ludi – i šta učiniti povodom toga. Zato hajde da se udubimo u to.

Na pitanje šta je novac, većina ljudi otvori svoje novčanike i pokaže nekoliko novčanica – “evo, ovo je novac!”

Ali po čemu se ove novčanice razlikuju od stranica vaše omiljene knjige? Pa, naravno, zavod za izradu novčanica te zemlje je odštampao te novčanice iz vašeg novčanika kako bi se oduprla falsifikovanju, i svi ih koriste da bi kupili odredjene stvari.

Međutim, Nemačka Marka imala je sva ova svojstva u prošlosti – ali preduzeća danas ne prihvataju te novčanice. Zapravo, građani Nemačke su početkom dvadesetih godina prošlog veka spaljivali papirne Marke kako bi grejali svoje domove. Marka je imala veću vrednost kao papir za potpalu nego kao novac!

1923. nemačka valuta poznata kao Marka bila je jeftinija od uglja i drveta!

Pa šta to čini novac, novcem?

Ispostavilo se da ovo nije pitanje na koje je lako dati odgovor.

Definisanje novca

Novac nije fizička stvar poput novčanice dolara. Novac je društveni sistem koji koristimo da bismo olakšali trgovinu robom i uslugama. Međutim, tokom istorije fizička monetarna dobra igrala su ključnu ulogu u društvenom sistemu novca, često kao znakovi koji predstavljaju vrednost u monetarnom sistemu. Ovaj sistem ima tri funkcije: 1) Sredstvo Razmene, 2) Obračunsku Jedinicu i 3) Zalihu Vrednosti.

Odakle dolaze ove funkcije, i zašto su one vredne?

Šta je sredstvo razmene?

Sredstvo razmene je neko dobro koje se obično razmenjuje za drugo dobro. Najčešće objašnjenje za to kako su se pojavila sredstva razmene glasi otprilike ovako: Boris ima ječam i želeo bi da kupi ovcu od Marka. Marko ima ovce, ali želi samo piliće. Ana ima piliće, ali ona ne želi ječam ili ovce.

To se naziva problem sticaja potreba: dve strane moraju da žele ono što druga ima da bi mogle da trguju. Ako se želje dve osobe ne podudaraju, oni moraju da pronađu druge ljude sa kojima će trgovati dok svi ne pronađu dobro koje žele.

Ljudi koji trguju robom i uslugama moraju da imaju potrebe koje se podudaraju.

Vremenom, veoma je verovatno da će se određena vrsta robe, poput pšenice, pojaviti kao sredstvo razmene jer su je mnogi ljudi želeli. Uzimajući pšenicu kao primer: pšenica je rešila “sticaje potreba” u mnogim zanatima, jer čak i ako onaj koji prima pšenicu a nije želeo da je koristi za sebe, znao je da će je neko drugi želeti.

Ovo nazivamo prodajnost imovine.

Pšenica je dobar primer dobra za prodaju jer svi moraju da jedu, a od pšenice se pravi hleb. Pšenica ima vrednost kao sastojak hleba i kao dobro koje olakšava trgovinu rešavanjem problema „sticaja potreba“.

Razmislite o svojoj želji da dobijete više novčanica u eurima ili drugoj valuti. Ne možete da jedete novčanice da biste preživeli, a i ne bi vam bile od velike koristi ako poželite da ih koristite kao građevinski materijal za vašu kuću. Međutim, znate da sa tim novčanicama možete da kupite hranu i kuću.

Stvarne fizičke novčanice su beskorisne za vas. Novčanice su vam dragocene samo zato što će ih drugi prihvatiti za stvari koje su vama korisne.

Tokom dugog perioda istorije, novac je evoluirao do te mere da monetarno dobro može imati vrednost, a da to dobro ne služi za bilo koju drugu ‘suštinsku’ upotrebu, poput hrane ili energije. Umesto toga, njegova upotreba je zaliha vrednosti i jednostavna zamena za drugu robu u bilo kom trenutku koji poželite.

Šta jedno dobro čini poželjnijim i prodajnijim od drugog dobra?

Deljivost

Definicija: Sposobnost podele dobra na manje količine.

Loš Primer: Dijamante je teško podeliti na manje komade. Za zajednicu od hiljada ljudi koji dnevno izvrše milione transakcija, dijamanti čine loše sredstvo razmene. Previše su retki i nedeljivi da bi se koristili za mnoge transakcije.

Ujednačenost

Definicija: Sličnost pojedinačnih jedinica odredjenog dobra.

Loš Primer: Krave nisu ujednačene – neke su veće, neke manje, neke bolesne, neke zdrave. Sa druge strane, unca čistog zlata je jednolična – jedna unca je potpuno ista kao sledeća. Ovo svojstvo se takođe često naziva zamenljivost.

Prenosivost

Definicija: Lakoća transporta dobra.

Loš Primer: Krava nije baš prenosiva. Zlatnici su prilično prenosivi. Papirne novčanice su još prenošljivije. Knjiga u kojoj se jednostavno beleži vlasništvo nad tim vrednostima (poput Rai kamenog sistema ili digitalnog bankovnog računa) je neverovatno prenosiva, jer nema fizičkog dobra koje treba nositi sa sobom za kupovinu. Postoji samo sistem za evidentiranje vlasništva nad tim vrednostima u nematerijalnom obliku.

Kako dobro postaje sredstvo razmene?

Dobra postaju, i ostaju sredstva razmene zbog svoje univerzalne potražnje, takođe poznate kao njihova prodajnost, čemu pomažu svojstva koja su gore nabrojana.

Mnogo različitih dobara mogu u različitoj meri delovati kao sredstva razmene u ekonomiji. Danas, naša globalna ekonomija koristi valute koje izdaju države, zlato, pa čak i robu poput nafte kao sredstvo razmene.

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Šta je obračunska jedinica?

Stvari se komplikuju kada u ekonomiji postoji mnogo robe koja se prodaje. Čak i sa samo 5 dobara, postoji 10 “kurseva razmene” između svake robe kojih svi u ekonomiji moraju da se sete: 1 svinja se menja za 15 pilića, 1 pile se menja za 15 litara mleka, desetak jaja se menja za 15 litara mleka, i tako dalje. Ako ekonomija ima 50 dobara, među njima postoji 1.225 “kurseva razmene”!

Sredstvo za merenje vrednosti

Zamislite obračunsku jedinicu kao sredstvo za merenje vrednosti. Umesto da se sećamo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa drugim dobrima, mi samo treba da se setimo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa jednim dobrom – obračunskom jedinicom.

Umesto da se setimo 1.225 kurseva razmene kada imamo 50 proizvoda na tržištu, mi treba da zapamtimo samo 50 cena.

Na primer, ne treba da se sećamo da litar mleka vredi 1/15 piletine ili desetak jaja, možemo da se samo setimo da litar mleka košta 1USD.

Poređenje dobara je lakše sa obračunskom jedinicom

Obračunska jedinica takođe olakšava upoređivanje vrednosti i donošenje odluka. Zamislite da pokušavate da kupite par Nike Air Jordan patika kada ih jedan prodavac prodaje za jedno pile, a drugi za 50 klipova kukuruza.

Šta je zaliha vrednosti?

Do sada smo gledali samo primere transakcija koje se odvijaju u određenom trenutku u vremenu.

Međutim, ljudi vrše transakcije tokom vremena – oni štede novac i troše ga kasnije. Da bi odredjeno dobro moglo da funkcioniše pravilno kao monetarno dobro, ono treba da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Novac koji vremenom dobro drži vrednost daje njegovom imaocu više izbora kada će taj novac da potroši.

To znači da prodajnost dobra uključuje njegovu sposobnost da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Šta jedno dobro čini boljom zalihom vrednosti od drugog dobra?

Trajnost

Definicija: Sposobnost dobra da vremenom zadrži svoj oblik.

Loš Primer: Jagode čine lošu zalihu vrednosti jer se lako oštete i brzo trunu.

Odluka je daleko lakša ako jedan prodavac naplaćuje 150 USD, a drugi 200 USD – odmah je očigledno koja je bolja ponuda jer su vrednosti izražene u istoj jedinici.

Teške za Proizvodnju

Definicija: Teškoće koje ljudi imaju u proizvodnji veće količine dobra.

Loš Primer: Papirne novčanice predstavljaju lošu zalihu vrednosti jer banke i vlade mogu jeftino da ih naprave.

Sa zlatom je suprotno – u ponudi se nalazi ograničena količina uprkos velikoj potražnji za njim, jednostavno zato što ga je vrlo teško iskopati iz zemlje. Ova ograničena ponuda osigurava da svaka jedinica zlata održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Kako dobra postaju zalihe vrednosti?

Dobro postaje zaliha vrednosti ako se vremenom pokaže trajnim i teškim za proizvodnju.

Samo će vreme pokazati da li je neko dobro zaista trajno i da li ga je teško proizvesti. Zbog toga neki oblici novca su postojali vekovima pre nego što je neko otkrio način da ih proizvede više, i na kraju se to dobro više nije koristilo kao novac.

Ovo je priča o školjkama, Rai kamenju i mnogim drugim oblicima novca tokom istorije.

Zlato je primer dobra koje je hiljadama godina služilo kao dobra zaliha vrednosti. Zlato se ne razgrađuje tokom vremena i još uvek ga je teško proizvesti. Hiljadama godina alhemičari su bezuspešno pokušavali da sintetišu zlato iz jeftinih materijala.

Čak i sa današnjim naprednim rudarskim tehnikama, svake godine svi svetski rudnici zlata zajedno mogu da proizvedu samo 2% od ukupne ponude zlata u prometu.

Teškoće u proizvodnji zlata daju izuzetno visok odnos “zaliha i protoka”: zaliha je broj postojećih jedinica, a protok su nove jedinice stvorene tokom određenog vremenskog perioda. Svake godine se stvori vrlo malo novih jedinica zlata, iako je potražnja za zlatom obično vrlo velika.

Kombinujući ovo sa deljivošću, ujednačenošću i prenosivošću zlata, nije ni čudo što je zlato čovečanstvu služilo kao monetarno dobro tokom poslednjih 5.000 godina. Pošto je zlato teško proizvesti, možemo ga nazvati teškim novcem (hard money).

Kao rezultat toga, svoju vrednost je u velikoj meri zadržao kroz milenijume. Cena većine dobara i usluga u pogledu zlata zapravo se vremenom smanjivala kao rezultat tehnoloških inovacija, koje sve proizvode čine jeftinijim.

Uzmimo na primer cene hrane prema praćenju Kancelarije za hranu i poljoprivredu UN-a: sa obzirom na skokove u poljoprivrednoj tehnologiji tokom poslednjih 60 godina, cene hrane drastično su pale kada se procenjuju u zlatu. To čak i važi uprkos činjenici da obični ljudi retko koriste zlato za kupovinu stvari.

Cene hrane su padale u pogledu zlata tokom proteklih 60 godina, i mnogo pre toga (FAO Indeks Cena Hrane u Zlatu)

Zaliha vrednosti omogućava ljudima da uštede novac kako bi mogli da ga ulažu u pokretanje preduzeća i obrazovanje, povećavajući produktivnost društva.

Monetarna dobra koja dobro čuvaju vrednost takođe podstiču dugoročniji pogled na život, ili kratke vremenske preference. Pojedinac može da radi 10 godina, uštedi odredjeno monetarno dobro koje je dobra zaliha vrednosti, i nema potrebe da se plaši da će njegova ušteđevina biti izbrisana krahom tržišta ili povećanjem ponude tog dobra.

Zašto su važne funkcije novca?

Kada neki oblik novca izgubi bilo koju od svojih važnih funkcija kao što su sredstvo razmene, obračunska jedinica i zaliha vrednosti, celokupna ekonomija i društvo mogu da se rastrgnu.

Tokom istorije često vidimo grupe ljudi koje eksploatišu druge iskorišćavajući nesporazume o novcu i važnosti njegovih funkcija.

Sledeće, proći ću kroz istoriju novca, prvo hipotetički da bih ilustrovao poentu, a zatim ću preći na stvarne istorijske primere. Kroz ove primere videćemo štetne efekte na društva u slučajevima kada se izgubi samo jedna od tih ključnih funkcija novca.

Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije

Kroz istoriju, mnoga dobra su dolazila i odlazila kao oblici novca. Na žalost, kada se neki oblik novca ukine, ponekad postoji grupa ljudi koja eksploatiše drugi oblik manipulišući tim novcem.

Hajde da pogledamo hipotetičko selo zvano Njutonija da bismo razumeli kako dolazi do ove eksploatacije.

Zelene perle postaju Novac

Tokom stotina godina ribolova u obližnjoj reci, stanovnici Njutonije sakupljali su zelene perle iz vode. Zrnca su mala, lagana, izdržljiva, jednolična i retko se pojavljuju u reci. Ljudi prvo priželjkuju perle zbog svoje lepote. Na kraju, seljani shvataju da svi drugi žele perle – one se vrlo lako mogu prodati. Zrnca uskoro postaju sredstvo razmene i obračunska jedinica u selu: pile je 5 zrna, vreća jabuka 2 zrna, krava 80 zrna.

Ukupna ponuda perli je prilično konstantna i cene se vremenom ne menjaju mnogo. Seoski starešina je uveren da može da se opustiti u poslednjim danima živeći od svoje velike zalihe perli.

Alhemičar stvara više perli

Seoski alhemičar je poželeo da bude bogat čovek, ali nije voleo da vredno radi na tome. Umesto da traži perle u reci ili da prodaje vrednu robu drugim seljanima, on sedeo je u svojoj laboratoriji. Na kraju je otkrio kako da lako stvori stotine perli sa malo peska i vatre.

Seljani koji su tragali za perlama u reci bili su srećni ako bi svaki dan pronašli po 1 zrno. Alhemičar je mogao da proizvede stotine uz malo napora.

Alhemičar troši svoje perle

Budući da je bio prilično zao, alhemičar nije svoj metod pravljenja zrna delio ni sa kim drugim. Stvorio je sebi još više perli i počeo da ih troši za dobra na tržištu u Njutoniji. Tokom sledećih meseci, alhemičar je kupio farmu pilića, nekoliko krava, finu svilu, posteljine i ogromno imanje. On je imao priliku da kupi ova dobra po normalnim cenama na tržištu.

Alhemičarevo trošenje ostavljalo je seljanima mnogo perli, ali malo njihove vredne robe.

Svi seljani su se osećali bogatima – imali su tone perli! Međutim, polako su primetili da i svi ostali takodje imaju tone.

Cene počinju da rastu

Uzgajivač pilića primetio je da sva roba koju je trebalo da kupi na pijaci poskupela. Džak jabuka sada se prodaje za 100 perli – 50 puta više od njihove cene pre nekoliko meseci!

Iako je sada imao hiljade perli, uskoro bi mogao da ostane bez njih zbog ovih cena. Pitao se – da li zaista može sebi da priušti da prodaje svoje piliće za samo 5 perli po komadu? Morao je i on da podigne svoje cene.

Jednostavno rečeno, kao rezultat alhemičarevog trošenja njegovih novostvorenih perli, bilo je previše perli koje su jurile premalo dobara – pa su cene porasle.

Kupci robe bili su spremni da potroše više perli da bi kupili potrebna dobra. Prodavci robe su trebali da naplate više da bi bili sigurni da su zaradili dovoljno da kupe potrebna dobra za sebe.

Budući da su cene svih dobara porasle, možemo reći da se vrednost svake perle smanjila.

Nejednakost bogatstva raste

Seoski starešina, koji je vredno radio da sačuva hiljade perli, sada se našao osiromašenim i gladnim. U međuvremenu, alhemičar je udobno sedeo na svom velikom imanju sa kravama, pilićima i slugama koji su se brinuli za svaki njegov hir.

Alhemičar je efikasno ukrao bogatstvo celog sela, tako što je jeftino proizvodio perle i koristio ih za kupovinu vredne robe.

Ono što je najvažnije, kupio je robu pre nego što je tržište shvatilo da je više perli u opticaju i da ima manje robe, što je dovelo do rasta cena. Ova dodatna proizvodnja perli nije dodala korisnu robu ili usluge selu.

Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle

Nažalost, priča o alhemičaru iz Njutonije nije u potpunosti hipotetička. Ovaj prenos bogatstva kroz stvaranje novca ima istorijske i moderne presedane.

Na primer, afrička plemena su nekada koristila staklene perle, poznate kao “agri perle”, kao sredstvo razmene. U to vreme plemenskim ljudima je bilo veoma teško da prave staklene perle, i one su predstavljale težak novac unutar njihovog plemenskog društva.

Niko nije mogao jeftino da proizvede perle i koristiti ih za kupovinu skupe, vredne robe poput kuća, hrane i odeće.

Sve se promenilo kada su stigli Evropljani, i primetili upotrebu staklenih perli kao novca.

U to vreme, Evropljani su mogli jeftino da stvaraju staklo u velikim količinama. Kao rezultat toga, Evropljani su počeli tajno da uvoze perle i koriste ih za kupovinu dobara, usluga i robova od Afrikanaca.

Vremenom se iz Afrike izvlačila vredna roba i ljudi, dok je plemenima ostajalo mnogo perli i malo robe.

Perle su izgubile veći deo vrednosti zbog inflacije uzrokovane snabdevanjem od strane Evropljana.

Rezultat je bio osiromašenje afričkih plemena i bogaćenje Evropljana, kako to ovde objašnjava monetarni istoričar Bezant Denier.

Dragocena roba je kupljena jeftino proizvedenim monetarnim dobrom.

Profitiranje na proizvodnji novca: Emisiona dobit

Ova priča ilustruje kako se bogatstvo prenosi kada jedna grupa može jeftino da proizvodi monetarno dobro.

Razlika između troškova proizvodnje monetarnog dobra i vrednosti tog monetarnog dobra poznata je kao emisiona dobit, eng. seignorage.

Kada je monetarno dobro mnogo vrednije od troškova proizvodnje, ljudi će proizvesti više od monetarnog dobra da bi uhvatili profit od emisione dobiti.

Na kraju će ova povećana ponuda dovesti do pada vrednosti monetarnog dobra. To je zbog zakona ponude i potražnje: kada se ponuda povećava, cena (poznata i kao vrednost) dobra opada.

Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar

U priči o Njutoniji, alhemičar je otkrio način da se od malo peska jeftino stvori više zelenih perli. To se u stvarnosti odigralo kroz trgovinu između Evropljana i Afrikanaca, pričom o agri perlama. Međutim, ove priče su pomalo zastarele – mi više ne trgujemo robom za perle.

Da bismo nas doveli do modernog doba, hajde da promenimo neka imena u našoj priči:

1. Selo Njutonija postaje država koja se zove Kejnsland
2. Alhemičar postaje bankar
3. Seoski starešina postaje penzioner
4. Zelene perle postaju zlato, koje niko ne može jeftinije da stvori – čak ni bankar.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Zlato

Kao i u stvarnosti, bankar u ovoj priči nema formulu ili trik da stvori više zlata. Međutim, bankar bezbedno čuva zlato u vlasništvu svakog građanina Kejnslanda. Bankar daje svakom građaninu po jednu potvrdu za svaku uncu zlata koje ima u svom trezoru.

Te potvrde se mogu iskoristiti u bilo koje vreme za stvarno zlato. Papirne potvrde ili novčanice su mnogo pogodnije za plaćanje nego nošenje zlata kroz supermarket.

Građani su srećni – oni imaju prikladno sredstvo plaćanja u vidu bankarevih novčanica, i znaju da niko ne može da ukrade njihovo bogatstvo falsifikujući više zlata.

Građani na kraju počinju da plaćaju u potpunosti papirnim novčanicama, ne trudeći se nikad da zamene svoje novčanice za zlato. Na kraju, novčanice postaju “dobre kao i zlato” – svaka predstavlja fiksnu količinu zlata u bankarevom trezoru.

Ukupno kruži 1.000.000 novčanica, od kojih je svaka otkupljiva za jednu uncu zlata. 1.000.000 unci zlata sedi u bankarevom trezoru. Svaka novčanica je u potpunosti podržana u zlatu.

Starešina koji je sačuvao sve svoje perle u priči o Njutoniji sada je penzioner u Kejnslandu, koji svoje zlato drži u banci i planira da ugodno živi od novčanica koje je dobio zauzvrat.

Hajde da u ovu priču dodamo i novi lik: premijera Kejnslanda. Premijer naplaćuje porez od građana i koristi ga za plaćanje javnih usluga poput policije i vojske. Premijer takođe drži vladino zlato kod bankara.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Dug

Premijer želi da osigura da nacionalno zlato ostane na sigurnom, pa banku štiti policijom. Bankar i premijer se zbog toga zbližavaju, pa premijer traži uslugu. Traži od bankara da kreira 200.000 novčanica za premijera, uz obećanje da će mu premijer vratiti za pet godina. Premijeru su novčanice potrebne za finansiranje rata. Građani Kejnslanda borili su se protiv većih poreza zbog finansiranja rata, pa je morao da se obrati bankaru.

Bankar se slaže da izradi novčanice, ali pod jednim uslovom: bankar uzima deo od 10.000 novčanica za sebe. Premijer prihvata posao kojim bankar ’kupuje državni dug’. Sada je u opticaju 1.200.000 novčanica, potpomognutih kombinacijom 1.000.000 unci zlata i ugovorom o dugu sa vladom za 200.000 novčanica.

Premijer troši svoje nove novčanice na bombe kupujući ih od dobavljača iz domaće vojne industrije, a bankar sebi kupuje veliki luksuzni stan.

Dobavljač iz vojne industrije koristi sve nove novčanice koje je dobio od premijera da kupi amonijum nitrat (đubrivo koje se koristi u bombama) za proizvodnju bombi. Sve njegove kupovine povećavaju cenu đubriva za uzgajivače pšenice u Kejnslandu, pa oni podižu cenu pšenice.

Kao uzrok toga, pekar koji kupuje pšenicu treba da podigne cenu svog hleba da bi ostao u poslu. Na taj način cene u Kejnslandu počinju da rastu, baš kao što su to činile u Njutoniji kada su nove perle ušle u opticaj.

Papirne Novčanice Više Ne Predstavljaju Zlato

Penzioner nailazi na finansijski časopis u kojem se pominje premijerov dogovor da se zaduži za finansiranje rata. Obzirom da je mudar, on zna da bombe loše vraćaju ulaganje i sumnja da će premijer ikada da vrati svoj dug.

Ako on ‘podmiri’ svoj dug, to bi ostavilo 1.200.000 novčanica u opticaju sa samo 1.000.000 unci zlata da bi ih podržalo, obezvređujući njegovu ušteđevinu. Već oseća stisak u džepu zbog porasta cena, i on odlučuje da se uputi u lokalnu banku i preda svoje novčanice i zameni ih za zlato, koje niko ne može da napravi u većoj količini.

Kada penzioner stigne u banku, on zatiče i mnoge druge okupljene oko banke. Svi oni se nadaju da će uzeti zlato koje predstavljaju njihove novčanice. Građani Kejnslanda sa pravom se plaše da njihove novčanice gube na vrednosti – oni to već osećaju zbog porasta cena.

Vrata su zaključana, sa obaveštenjem bankara na njima:

Po nalogu premijera, onom koji se plaši za stabilnost ove bankarske institucije, ova banka više neće podržavati konvertibilnost papirnih novčanica u zlato. Hvala vam!

Gomila se razilazi, ostavljena sa jednim izborom: da zadrže svoje novčanice, koje sada vrede manje od 1 unce zlata. Građani sa dovoljno finansijske stabilnosti odlučuju da ulože svoje novčanice u kupovinu akcija banke i kompanija vojne industrije, koje dobro posluju jer mogu da kupuju stvari pre nego što se povećaju tržišne cene.

Mnogi ljudi nisu u mogućnosti da investiraju – oni moraju da gledaju kako njihove zarade stagniraju i kako njihova ušteđevina polako ali sigurno gubi vrednost.

Penzioner, koji se nadao da će živeti od novčanica koje je zaradio tokom svojih 40 radnih godina, sada 40 sati nedeljno provodi iza kase u lokalnoj prodavnici, pitajući se gde je sve pošlo po zlu.

Dug Nikada Nije Otplaćen

Prošlo je nekoliko godina, a premijerov dug prema banci dolazi na naplatu. Budući da je potrošio svih 200.000 novčanica na bombe, koje nemaju baš dobar povraćaj ulaganja, on nema novčanice koje može da vrati banci. Plus, premijer želi da kupi još bombi za svoj rat.

Bankar uverava premijera da je sve u redu. Bankar će napraviti novi ugovor o dugu za 600.000 novčanica, koji bi trebao da stigne na naplatu u narednih 5 godina. Premijer može da iskoristi 200.000 od tih novih 600.000 novčanica da vrati svoj prvobitni dug prema banci, zadrži još 300.000 da kupi još bombi i da 100.000 bankaru da bi mu platio njegove usluge.

To nastavlja da se dešava – svaki put kada dug dospeva na naplatu, bankar stvara više novčanica za vraćanje starijih dugova i daje premijeru još više novca za trošenje. Ovaj ciklus se nastavlja.

Šta se dešava u Kejnslandu?

• Oni koji prvi dobiju nove novčanice, gledaju kako se njihovo bogatstvo povećava
• To uključuje bankara, premijera, vladu i sve one koji mogu da pristupe mogućnostima za investiranje u preduzeća koja prva dobiju nove novčanice (finansijske, vojne itd.).
• Cene roba rastu
• Cene se ne povećavaju ravnomerno – one se povećavaju gde god nove novčanice prvo uđu u ekonomiju i od tog trenutka imaju efekat talasa na tržišta. U našem primeru prvo raste cena amonijum nitrata, zatim cena pšenice, pa cena hleba. A tek na kraju zarade običnih ljudi.
• Štednja i životni standard opšte populacije se smanjuju
• Najviše pate oni koji žive od plate do plate i ne mogu da ulažu. Čak i oni koji su u mogućnosti da investiraju podložni su hirovima tržišta. Mnogi su prisiljeni da prodaju svoje investicije po niskim cenama tokom pada tržišta samo da bi platili svoje dnevne potrebe.
• Razlika u prihodima i bogatstvu između bogatih i siromašnih se povećava
• Bogatstvo opšte populacije se smanjuje, dok se bogatstvo onih koji su blizu mesta gde se troše nove novčanice povećava. Rezultat je disparitet koji se vremenom samo proširuje.

Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?

Priča o Njutoniji i stvarna priča o agri perlama u Africi deluju pomalo zastarelo. Priča o Kejnslandu, međutim, deluje neobično poznato. U našem svetu cene robe uvek rastu, i vidimo rekordne nivoe nejednakosti u bogatstvu.

U poslednjem odeljku ovog našeg članka Šta je novac, proći ću kroz nastanak bankarstva i korake koji su bili potrebni da se dođe do današnjeg sistema, gde banke i vlade sarađuju u kontroli ekonomije i samog novca.

Šta su banke, i odakle su one došle?

Pojava bankarstva verovatno se dogodila da bi olakšala poljoprivrednu trgovinu i da bi povećala pogodnosti. Iako su se mnoga društva na kraju konvergirala ka upotrebi zlata i srebra kao novca, ovi metali su bili teški i opasni za nošenje kao tovar. Međutim, u mnogim slučajevima ih nije ni trebalo prevoziti. Uzmite ovaj primer:

Grad treba da plati poljoprivrednicima na selu za žito, a poljoprivrednici gradskoj vojsci za zaštitu od varvara. U ovom dogovoru zlato se kreće u oba smera: prema poljoprivrednicima u selu kako bi im se platilo žito, i nazad u grad da bi se platila vojska. Da bi olakšali ove transakcije, preduzetnici su stvorili koncept banke. Banka je zlato čuvala u sigurnom trezoru i izdavala novčanice od papira. Svaka priznanica je predstavljala potvrdu da njen imaoc poseduje određenu količinu zlata u banci. Imaoc novčanice je u svako doba mogao da uzme svoje zlato nazad vraćanjem te novčanice banci.

Korisnici banke mogli su lakše da trguju sa novčanicama od papira, i onaj koji poseduje novčanice mogao je da preuzme njihovo fizičko zlato u bilo kom trenutku. To je te novčanice učinilo “dobrim kao i zlato”.

Banke su izdržavale svoje poslovanje naplaćujući od kupaca naknadu za skladištenje zlata ili pozajmljivanjem dela zlata i zaračunavanjem kamata na njega. Trgovina na ovaj način je mogla da se odvija sa laganim novčanicama od papira umesto sa teškim vrećama zlatnika.

Ovakva praksa sa transakcijama, korišćenjem papirne valute potpomognute monetarnim dobrima, verovatno je započela u Kini u 7. veku.

Na kraju se proširila Evropom 1600-ih, a svoj zalet dobila je u Holandiji sa bankama poput Amsterdamske Wisselbanke. Novčanice Wisselbank-e često su vredele više od zlata koje ih je podržavalo, zbog dodane vrednosti njihovih pogodnosti.

Uspon nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’

Tokom vekova, zlato je počelo da se sakuplja u trezorima banaka, jer su ljudi više voleli pogodnosti transakcija sa novčanicama.

Na kraju, nacionalne banke u vlasništvu vlada preuzele su ulogu čuvanja zlata od privatnih banaka koje su započeli preduzetnici.

Nacionalne papirne valute potpomognute zlatnim rezervama u nacionalnim bankama zamenile su novčanice iz privatnih banaka. Sve nacionalne valute bile su jednostavno potvrde za zlato koje se nalazilo u trezoru nacionalne banke.

Ovaj sistem je poznat kao zlatni standard – sve valute su jednostavno predstavljale različite težine zlata.

U gornjem levom uglu novčanice možete videti da piše da je novčanica “zamenljiva za zlato”. Savremeni dolari nemaju ovaj natpis, ali inače izgledaju vrlo slično. Izvor

Zlatni sistem je postojao veći deo vremena, sve do Prvog svetskog rata. Vladama je bilo teško da prikupe novac za ovaj rat putem poreza, pa su morale da budu kreativne.

Kada vlade troše više nego što zarađuju na porezima, to se naziva deficitna potrošnja.

Kako vlade mogu ovo da urade? Vlade to rade tako što pozajmljuju novac prodavajući svoj dug.

Tokom Prvog svetskog rata, vlade su građanima i preduzećima prodavale vrstu duga koja se naziva ratna obveznica. Kada građanin kupi ratnu obveznicu, on preda svoj novac vladi i dobije papir u kojem je stajalo vladino obećanje da će vlasniku obveznice vratiti novac, plus kamate, za nekoliko godina.

Plakat koji obaveštava građane, tražeći od njih da kupe ratne obveznice – što predstavlja zajam vladi. Izvor

Centralne banke ‘monetizuju’ državni dug

Međutim, građani i preduzeća nisu bili voljni da kupe dovoljno ratnih obveznica za finansiranje Prvog svetskog rata.

Vlade se nisu predale – pa su zatražile od svojih nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’ da one kupe ove obveznice. Centralne banke su otkupile obveznice, ali ih nisu platile valutom potpomognutom postojećim zlatnim rezervama, kao što su to činili građani i banke prilikom kupovine obveznica.

Centralne banke su umesto toga davale vladi novu, sveže štampanu papirnu valutu potpomognutu samo obveznicom. Ovu valutu podržalo je samo obećanje da će im vlada vratiti dugove. Ovo je poznato kao monetizacija duga.

Budući da su ratne obveznice i valuta samo komadi papira, one su lake i jeftine za proizvodnju i mogu se napraviti u ogromnim količinama. Ono što ograničava proizvodnju i jednog i drugog je poverenje.

Ima smisla da se neko rastane od svog teško stečenog novca da kupi državnu obveznicu, samo ako veruje da će vlada da vrati svoj dug, plus kamate. Centralna banka je “krajnji kupac”, što znači da će ona da kupi državne obveznice kada to niko drugi neće da uradi.

Zapamtite, centralnu banku gotovo da ništa ne košta da kupi državne obveznice, jer oni sami štampaju valutu da bi ih kupili.

Zamislite da pridjete najskupljem automobilu u autosalonu – koji košta 100.000 USD. Mislite da je automobil lep, ali taj novac biste radije potrošili na lepši stan – tako da ste spremni da platite samo 40.000 USD za taj auto.

Sada, hajde da zamislimo da imate štampač za novac i da vas košta samo 50 USD za mastilo i papir da bi ištampali 1.000.000 USD. Vi biste odmah kupili auto, čak i ako biste morali da se cenkate sa drugim čovekom, i da ga na kraju platite 150.000 USD!

Ista stvar se dešava kada centralna banka kupuje obveznice (dugove) od vlade. Centralna banka može da stvori valutu toliko jeftino, da su spremni da plate i više nego što bi drugi platili ove obveznice i nastaviće da ih kupuju čak i kada niko drugi ne bude želeo.

Monetizacija duga uzrokuje inflaciju

Kada centralne banke monetizuju državni dug, funkcija novca kao zalihe vrednosti počinje da se nagriza. Vlada troši novi novac koji je dobila od svoje centralne banke na ratnu robu, obroke i još mnogo toga.

Cene roba rastu od ove novoštampane valute koja kruži kroz ekonomiju. Kada se cene povećavaju, to znači da se vrednost svake jedinice valute smanjuje. Svi koji drže valutu sada imaju manje vrednosti. Danas to nazivamo sporim gubitkom funkcije zalihe vrednosti u novčanoj inflaciji.

Za Nemačku nakon Prvog svetskog rata monetizacija duga izazvala je totalni slom Nemačke ekonomije i stvorila uslove za rast fašizma.

Kao deo sporazuma o prekidu vatre koji je okončao Prvi svetski rat, Nemačka je pobednicima morala da plati ogroman novac. Nemačkoj vladi je bio preko potreban novac, pa su prodale obveznice (dug) Rajhsbanci, nemačkoj centralnoj banci.

Ovaj postupak doveo je do toga da je vlada štampala toliko maraka (tadašnja nemačka valuta) da je tempo inflacije u Nemačkoj ubrzan u hiperinflaciju početkom 1920-ih. Cena vekne hleba za samo 4 godine popela se sa 1,2 marke na 428 biliona maraka.

Tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata, SAD, Britanija, Francuska i mnoge druge vlade pratile su Nemačku u štampanju valute potpomognute državnim dugom.

To je dovelo do toga da su građani želeli da svoju papirnu valutu zamene za zlato, baš kao i penzioner iz priče o Kejnslandu.

Međutim, mnoge vlade su suspendovale konvertibilnost svojih valuta u zlato. Ovim potezom vlade su primorale svoje građane da drže nacionalnu papirnu valutu i gledaju kako se njihova ušteda smanjuje u vrednosti.

Da bi mogle da nastave da štampaju novac i da bi ga trošile na nepopularne programe za koje nisu mogle da skupljaju poreze za finansiranje – poput ratova.

Bretton Woods: Novi monetarni sistem

Nakon razaranja koja su donela dva svetska rata, vlade su uspostavile novi globalni monetarni sistem prema Bretton Woods-ovom sporazumu iz 1944. godine.

Prema ovom sporazumu, valuta svake države konvertovala se po fiksnom kursu sa američkim dolarom. Američki dolar je zauzvrat predstavljao zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu trojsku uncu zlata*.

Sve globalne valute su stoga još uvek bile jednostavna reprezentacija zlata, putem američkih dolara kao posrednika. Redovni građani više nisu mogli da otkupljuju svoje valute za zlato iz Sjedinjenih Država. Međutim, strane centralne banke mogle bi da dođu u Sjedinjene Države da bi zamenile dolare za zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu uncu zlata.

Međutim, vlada Sjedinjenih Država nije uvek držala dovoljno zlata da podrži sve dolare u opticaju. Američka vlada nastavila je da finansira proširene socijalne i vojne programe prodajom državnog duga svojoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim rezervama, koja je povećala ponudu dolara bez povećanja ponude zlata koja podupire te dolare.

*Trojna unca je standardna mera čistog zlata i ima malo veću težinu od normalne unce.

Propast Bretton Woods-a

Tokom 1970-ih, sve veći troškovi rata u Vijetnamu i stranih vlada koje su otkupljivale svoje dolare za zlato, stvorili su pritisak na Trezor Sjedinjenih Država.

Ponuda dolara je porasla, dok je zlato u posedu Sjedinjenih Država opalo. Od 1950. pa do početka 1970-ih, rezerve zlata koje je držala vlada Sjedinjenih Država smanjile su se za više od 50%, sa 20 metričkih tona na samo 8 metričkih tona.

Godine 1970. država je imala zlata u vrednosti od samo 12 biliona dolara po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata. Tokom ovog istog vremenskog perioda, ukupna ponuda američkih dolara otišla je sa oko 32 biliona USD na skoro 70 biliona USD.

Zvanične rezerve zlata u SAD-u su naglo padale od 1950. do 1970. godine, dok su se dolari u opticaju povećavali. Izvor: Wikipedia, DollarDaze.org

Američka vlada nije bila u stanju da potkrepi dolare zlatom od 35 dolara po trojnoj unci, što dovelo do rizika za čitav globalni monetarni sistem.

Početkom sedamdesetih godina, trojna unca zlata trebala je da vredi 200 USD da bi u potpunosti podržala sve američke dolare u opticaju. Rečeno na drugi način, Sjedinjene Države su pokušavale da kažu svetu da jedan dolar vredi 1/35 trojne unce zlata, ali u stvarnosti dolar je vredeo samo 1/200 trojne unce.

Kad su strane vlade trebale da pribave dolare za međunarodnu trgovinu i rezerve, bile su opelješene. Francuska vlada je to shvatila šezdesetih godina prošlog veka i počela je da prodaje svoje američke dolare za zlato po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata.

Zemlje su počinjale da se bude iz šeme američke vlade. SAD su krale bogatstvo putem emisione dobiti, prodajući dolare za 1/35 trojne unce zlata, kada su vredeli samo 1/200 trojske unce.

Nixonov Šok ulazi u ’tradicionalni’ novac

Da bi kuća od karata mogla da ostane na mestu, predsednik Nixon je 1971. najavio da će američka vlada privremeno da obustavi konvertibilnost dolara u zlato.

Strane vlade više nisu mogle da polažu pravo na zlato svojim papirnim dolarima, a dolar više nije bio “poduprt” zlatom. Nixon je tvrdio da će ovo stabilizovati dolar.

50 godina kasnije, kristalno je jasno da je ovo samo pomoglo dolaru da izgubi vrednost i da ovaj “privremeni” program još uvek traje.

Pre 1971. godine, sve globalne valute bile su vezane za američki dolar putem Bretton Woods-ovog sporazuma. Kada je Nixon promenio američki dolar iz dolara podržanog u zlatu u dolar podržan dugom, ovim je promenio i svaku drugu valutu na Zemlji.

Sam je učinio da se celokupna svetska ekonomija zasniva na dugovima. Valute više nisu predstavljale zlato, već su predstavljale vrednost državnog duga.

Zlatni Standard se nikada nije vratio

Konvertibilnost američkih dolara u zlato – zlatni standard – nikada se nije vratio.

Od 1971. godine, čitav globalni monetarni sistem pokreće se tradicionalnim “fiat” valutama: poverenjem u vladine institucije da održavaju valutni sistem.

Većina valuta podržana je kombinacijom duga njihove vlade i drugih tradicionalnih valuta poput dolara i evra. Papirne valute više nisu podržane zlatom, imovinom koja je više od 5000 godina služila kao težak novac.

Danas vas vlade prisiljavaju da plaćate porez u njihovoj valuti i manipulišu saznanjima oko novca kako bi osigurale da potražnja za njihovom valutom ostane velika.

To im omogućava da neprestano štampaju više valuta, da bi je potrošili na vladine projekte, uzrokujući inflaciju cena koja jede i smanjuje bogatstvo i plate.

Američka vlada sada prodaje državne obveznice (dugove), poznate kao obveznice Trezora SAD, eng. US Treasuries, komercijalnim bankama u zamenu za američke dolare.

Vlada koristi te dolare za finansiranje svog budžetskog deficita. Komercijalne banke prodaju mnoge obveznice Trezora SAD, koje su kupile, američkoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim Rezervama.

Federalne rezerve plaćaju komercijalnim bankama sveže štampanim novcem “pomoću računara i upisivanjem količine na račun”, kako je rekao bivši predsednik Fed-a Ben Bernanke.

Ove komercijalne banke često zarađuju samo kupujući obveznice Trezora SAD od države i prodajući ih centralnoj banci. Kupujte nisko, prodajte visoko.

Centralne banke ovaj proces kupovine državnog duga – odnosno pozajmljivanja novca državi – nazivaju operacijama otvorenog tržišta.

Kada centralna banka odjednom kupi velike iznose duga, oni to nazivaju kvantitativnim ublažavanjem. Centralne banke javno najavljuju kupovinu državnog duga, ali vrlo malo ljudi razume šta to zapravo znači.

Euro, jen i svaka druga valuta koja se danas koristi funkcionišu slično kao američki dolar.

Da li će SAD ikada vratiti svoj nacionalni dug? Neobična stvar u vezi sa državnim dugom SAD-a je ta što vlada poseduje štampariju potrebnu za njegovu otplatu.

Kao rezultat toga, kada vlada duguje novac, oni samo pozajme još više novca da bi otplatile taj dug, povećavajući nacionalni dug.

Ako vam ovo zvuči kao Ponzijeva piramidalna šema, to je zato što ona to i jeste – najveća Ponzijeva šema u istoriji. Kao i svaka Ponzijeva šema, nastaviće se sve dok su ljudi koji kupuju Ponzijevu šemu budu uvereni da će im biti plaćeno nazad.

Ako ljudi i nacije prestanu da se zadužuju i koriste američke dolare jer nemaju poverenja u američku vladu ili vide da cena robe raste (tj. dolar postaje sve manje vredan), potražnja za dolarom će opadati, što će izazvati začaranu spiralu.

Ova spirala često završi u hiperinflaciji, kao što smo videli u novijoj istoriji sa Jugoslavijom, Venecuelom, Argentinom, Zimbabveom i mnogim drugim državama.

Ovo je način kako funkcioniše novac na vašem bankovnom računu. Novac svake nacije na svetu pati od istih problema kao i perle i novčanice u pričama o Njutoniji i Kejnslandu.

Kako banke i vlade kradu tvoj novac?

Tokom vekova, stigli smo do monetarnog sistema u kojem banke i vlade mogu da štampaju novu valutu za finansiranje svojih operacija i svojih prijatelja u zločinu, dok kradu bogatstvo svojih građana.

Šta će se desiti sa svetom kada novac bude mogao da štampa svaki narod na planeti?

• Bogatstvo onih koji su blizu pravljenja nove valute se povećava
• Vlada i politički povlašćena klasa ljudi, imaju pristup novoštampanom novcu pre svih ostalih, pa mogu da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu. Na ovaj efekat pokazao je ekonomista Richard Cantillon sredinom 1700-ih i poznat je kao Cantillonov Efekat.
• Cena robe raste (poznato kao inflacija
• Ne raste sve roba istovremeno u ceni. Roba blizu mesta gde se proizvodi nova valuta – finansijski sektor i vlada – prva raste, i odatle uzrokuje efekt talasa na cene.
• Inflacija se često predstavlja kao promena cene potrošačke korpe, poznata kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vlada ima alate za manipulisanje ovim brojem kako bi osigurala da se ona čini niskom i stabilnom, kao što je objašnjeno u našem članku o inflaciji.
• Finansijska imovina često primećuje ogromnu inflaciju, ali bankari to ne nazivaju inflacijom – oni kažu da naša ekonomija cveta! Nakon što su američke Federalne rezerve učetvorostručile ponudu američkih dolara u šest godina nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine, banke koje su dobile te nove dolare, kupile su akcije i obveznice, stvarajući ogroman balon u cenama ove imovine.
• Štednja i životni standard stanovništva se smanjuju
• Plate su jedna od poslednjih “cena” u ekonomiji koja se prilagođava, jer se često povećavaju samo jednom godišnje. U međuvremenu, cene dnevnih potrepština te osobe koja zaradjuje platu neprestano rastu kako novi novac kruži ekonomijom.
• Najviše su pogođeni oni koji žive od plate do plate – a to je 70% Amerikanaca.
• Razlike u prihodima između bogatih i siromašnih se povećavaju, kao što se vidi na grafikonu ispod.

*Koncentracija dohotka na vrhu naglo je porasla od 1970-ih

Zašto i dalje imamo isti monetarni sistem?

Ako ovaj sistem bogate još više obogaćuje, a siromašne još više osiromašuje, dovodeći do političke nestabilnosti, zašto ga onda ne bismo promenili?

Najveći razlog zašto se ništa ne menja je verovatno to što puno toga ne znamo o samom sistemu. Svi svakodnevno koristimo valute svojih vlada, ali većina nas ne razume kako sistem funkcioniše i šta on čini našim društvima.

Obrazovni sistem, mediji i finansijski stručnjaci neprestano nam govore da je monetarni sistem previše komplikovan da bi ga normalni ljudi razumeli. Mnogi od nas se zato i ne trude da pokušaju.

Još nekoliko razloga zašto ovaj sistem nastavlja da opstaje:

• Mnogo je ljudi koji imaju direktnu korist od štampanja novog novca.
• Ti ljudi ne žele nikakve promene i bore se da zadrže tu moć.
• Nacionalne valute su često pogodne
• Kreditne kartice, online bankarstvo i još mnogo toga čine upravljanje nacionalnim valutama i njihovo trošenje lakim i jednostavnim.
• Građani moraju da plaćaju porez u svojoj nacionalnoj valuti
• To stvara potražnju za tom valutom od svih građana, povećavajući njenu vrednost.
• Glavna međunarodna tržišta, poput nafte, denominirana su u dolarima.
• Nafta je potrebna svakoj zemlji na planeti, ali pošto mnogi ne mogu da je proizvode, moraju da je kupuju na međunarodnim berzama. Od 1970-ih na ovim berzama gotovo sva nafta se prodaje za dolare, što stvara potražnju za dolarima. Da bi se odmaknule od ovog sistema, zemlje bi trebale da pronađu novu valutu ili robu za trgovinu naftom, što zahteva vreme i rizike.
• Nije postojala dobra alternativa
• Uz globalnu ekonomiju u realnom vremenu, naš sistem digitalnog bankarstva koji koristi nacionalne valute je pogodan. Transakcija u tvrdom novcu poput zlata bila bi previše nezgrapna za današnji svet. Digitalna valuta pod nazivom Bitcoin, predstavljena 2009. godine, je rastuća alternativa koja nudi čvrst novac koji se kreće brzinom interneta.

Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?

Novac je alat koji olakšava razmenu dobara. Kao i svako drugo dobro, novac se pridržava zakona ponude i potražnje – povećanje potražnje povećaće njegovu vrednost, a povećanje ponude smanjiće njegovu vrednost.

Na ovaj način novac se ne razlikuje od kuće ili piletine. Međutim, velika prodajnost novca znači da je potražnja za njim uvek velika. Kao rezultat, novac mora biti težak za proizvodnju (a samim tim i ograničen u ponudi) ili će ga onaj ko ga može napraviti, stvoriti toliko, da vremenom više neće služiti kao zaliha vrednosti. Uskoro će izgubiti svoje funkcije kao sredstvo razmene i obračunske jedinice.

Najbolji novac u datoj ekonomiji je onaj koji se najslobodnije kreće – svi ga žele, lako je obaviti transakcije sa njim i koji sa vremenom dobro drži svoju vrednost. Nijedan novac nije savršen u svemu ovome, a neki ističu jednu funkciju novca na štetu drugih.

Iako se istorija ne ponavlja, ona se rimuje, a usponi i padovi monetarnih sistema imaju jasne ritmove. Uspon i pad monetarnog sistema često sledi opšti obrazac koji smo videli u pričama o agri perlama i Kejnslandu: pojavljuje se odredjenji oblik novca koji pomaže ljudima da efikasnije trguju i štede, ali na kraju gubi na vrednosti kada neko shvati kako da ga jeftino stvori u velikoj količini. Međutim, tokom dugog perioda vremena, monetarni sistemi su se poboljšali u sve tri funkcije novca.

Na primer, zlato je tokom vremena dobro služilo kao zaliha vrednosti. Međutim, naša međusobno povezana ekonomija ne bi mogla efikasno da funkcioniše ako bi trebalo da fizičko zlato zamenimo robom i uslugama. Mnogo je lakše kretati se na papirnom i digitalnom novcu, ali istorija nam govori da su vlade i bankari iskoristili ove oblike novca za krađu bogatstva putem inflacije.

Današnji globalni monetarni sistem je vrlo zgodan, a digitalna plaćanja i kreditne kartice olakšavaju trošenje novca. Ovo skriva stalnu inflaciju koja nagriza vrednost svake jedinice novca i dovodi do sve većeg jaza u bogatstvu.

Nadam se da je ovaj članak proširio vaše razumevanje novca i njegove uloge u društvu. Ovo je samo početak svega što treba istražiti o novcu: za kasnije su sačuvane teme o inflaciji, kamatnim stopama, pozajmljivanju, poslovnim ciklusima i još mnogo toga.

Efikasnija Ušteda Novca

Možda se pitate kako zaštititi svoju štednju kada svaki oblik često korišćenog novca i investicija pati od inflacije ponude – koja umanjuje vrednost i prenosi bogatstvo onima koji mogu da stvore novac ili investiciju. Možda se čini da se ništa na planeti danas ne može kvalifikovati kao ‘težak’ novac, ali dve stvari ipak ostaju: zlato i njegov noviji rođak Bitcoin. Obe ove stvari je neverovatno teško proizvesti, a jedna od njih se kreće brzinom interneta i može se čuvati u vašem mozgu.

Ako želite da saznate više o Bitcoin-u kao sredstvu za zaštitu vaše ušteđevine, pročitajte ovde. Ako ste već spremni za kupovinu Bitcoin-a, pogledajte moj vodič za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Možete početi sa investiranjem sa samo 5 ili 10 €.

Zasluge

Hvala svima koji su pomogli u izradi i uređivanju ove serije o novcu: @ck_SNARKS, @CryptoRothbard, Neil Woodfine, Emil Sandstedt, Taylor Pearson, Parker Lewis, Jason Choi, mojoj porodici i mnogim drugima.

Hvala svima koji su ovo inspirisali i razvili ključne ideje koje su ovde primenjene: Friedrich Hayek, Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Saifedean Ammous, Dan Held, Pierre Rochard, Stephan Livera, Michael Goldstein, i mnogi drugi.

Molim vas da šerujete! Ako vam je ovaj članak otvorio oči o tome kako funkcioniše naš novac i finansijski sistem, kontaktirajte me ili ostavite komentar!

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.