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@ 5ea46480:450da5bd
2025-05-24 09:57:37Decentralization refers to control/power, and relates to censorship resistance. That is it, it is not more complicated then that. Resilience is a function of redundancy; a centralized censored system can have a redundant set-up and therefor be resilient.
Take Bitcoin; the blockchain is a central database, it is resilient because it has many redundant copies among a lot of different nodes. The message (txs and blocks) propagation is decentralized due to existence of a p2p network among these nodes, making the data distribution censorship resistant (hello op_return debate). But onchain transactions themselves are NOT p2p, they require a middlemen (a miner) because it is a central database, as opposed to something like lightning which is p2p. Peer to Peer says something about relative architectural hierarchical position/relation. P2P provides censorship resistance because it entails equal power relations, provided becoming a peer is permissionless. What makes onchain transactions censorship resistant is that mining is permissionless, and involves this open power struggle/game where competition results in a power distribution among players, meaning (hopefully) decentralization. The fact users rely on these middlemen is mitigated by this decentralization on the one hand, and temper-proofing via cryptographic signatures on the other, resulting in what we call trustlessness (or trust minimization for the autists in the room); we only rely on a miner to perform a job (including your tx into a block), but we don’t trust the miner to perform the job correctly, this we can verify ourselves.
This leads us to Nostr, because that last part is exactly what Nostr does as well. It uses cryptography to get tamper-proof messaging, which then allows you to use middle-men in a trust minimized way. The result is decentralization because in general terms, any middle man is as good as any other (same as with miners), and becoming such a middleman is permissionless(somewhat, mostly); which in turn leads to censorship resistance. It also allows for resilience because you are free to make things as redundant as you'd like.
Ergo, the crux is putting the cryptography central, making it the starting point of the system; decentralization then becomes an option due to trust minimization. The difference between Bitcoin an Nostr, is that Bitcoin maintains a global state/central ledger and needs this PoW/Nakamoto consensus fanfare; Nostr rests itself with local perspectives on 'the network'.
The problem with the Fediverse, is that it does not provide trust minimization in relation to the middlemen. Sure, there are a lot different servers, but you rely on a particular one (and the idea you could switch never really seemed to have materialized in a meaningful way). It also fails in permisionlessness because you rely on the association between servers, i.e. federation, to have meaningful access to the rest of the network. In other words, it is more a requirement of association than freedom of association; you have the freedom to be excommunicated.
The problem with ATproto is that is basically does not solve this dynamic; it only complicates it by pulling apart the components; identity and data, distribution and perspective are now separated, and supposedly you don’t rely on any particular one of these sub-component providers in the stack; but you do rely on all these different sub-component providers in the stack to play nice with each other. And this ‘playing nice’ is just the same old ‘requirement of association’ and ‘freedom of excommunication’ that looms at the horizon.
Yes, splitting up the responsibilities of identity, hosting and indexing is what is required to safe us from the platform hellscape which at this stage takes care of all three. But as it turns out, it was not a matter cutting those up into various (on paper) interchangeable middlemen. All that is required is putting cryptographic keys in the hands of the user; the tamperproofing takes care of the rest, simply by trust minimizing the middlemen we use. All the sudden it does not matter which middlemen we use, and no one is required to play nice; we lost the requirement of association, and gained freedom of association, which was the purpose of censorship resistance and therefor decentralization, to begin with.
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-05-21 16:58:36The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.
Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.
He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.
Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.
I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.
It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.
So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.
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@ 51bbb15e:b77a2290
2025-05-21 00:24:36Yeah, I’m sure everything in the file is legit. 👍 Let’s review the guard witness testimony…Oh wait, they weren’t at their posts despite 24/7 survellience instructions after another Epstein “suicide” attempt two weeks earlier. Well, at least the video of the suicide is in the file? Oh wait, a techical glitch. Damn those coincidences!
At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility with me on anything related to the Epstein case and his clients. I still suspect the administration is using the Epstein files as leverage to keep a lot of RINOs in line, whereas they’d be sabotaging his agenda at every turn otherwise. However, I just don’t believe in ends-justify-the-means thinking. It’s led almost all of DC to toss out every bit of the values they might once have had.
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@ c9badfea:610f861a
2025-05-20 19:49:20- Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
- Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
- When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
- Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
- Disable Send Usage Statistics
- Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!
ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-20 15:53:48This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.
Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.
A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights
Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.
Abundant Access to Fresh Water
Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.
Grow Your Own Food
A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.
Guns
The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.
A Strong Community You Can Depend On
No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.
Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-20 15:47:16Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.
Part One: 2029–2032
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2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.
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2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.
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2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.
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2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.
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2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.
Time Jump: 2032–2047
- Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.
Part Two: 2047
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2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.
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2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.
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2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.
Key Differences
- Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
- Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
- Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.
This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.
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@ 3f770d65:7a745b24
2025-05-19 18:09:52🏌️ Monday, May 26 – Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kickoff Party
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada\ Event: 2nd Annual Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kick Off Party"\ Where: Bali Hai Golf Clubhouse, 5160 S Las Vegas Blvd, Las Vegas, NV 89119\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!
Details:
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The week tees off in style with the Bitcoin Golf Championship. Swing clubs by day and swing to music by night.
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Live performances from Nostr-powered acts courtesy of Tunestr, including Ainsley Costello and others.
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Stop by the Purple Pill Booth hosted by Derek and Tanja, who will be on-boarding golfers and attendees to the decentralized social future with Nostr.
💬 May 27–29 – Bitcoin 2025 Conference at the Las Vegas Convention Center
Location: The Venetian Resort\ Main Attraction for Nostr Fans: The Nostr Lounge\ When: All day, Tuesday through Thursday\ Where: Right outside the Open Source Stage\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!
Come chill at the Nostr Lounge, your home base for all things decentralized social. With seating for \~50, comfy couches, high-tops, and good vibes, it’s the perfect space to meet developers, community leaders, and curious newcomers building the future of censorship-resistant communication.
Bonus: Right across the aisle, you’ll find Shopstr, a decentralized marketplace app built on Nostr. Stop by their booth to explore how peer-to-peer commerce works in a truly open ecosystem.
Daily Highlights at the Lounge:
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☕️ Hang out casually or sit down for a deeper conversation about the Nostr protocol
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🔧 1:1 demos from app teams
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🛍️ Merch available onsite
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🧠 Impromptu lightning talks
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🎤 Scheduled Meetups (details below)
🎯 Nostr Lounge Meetups
Wednesday, May 28 @ 1:00 PM
- Damus Meetup: Come meet the team behind Damus, the OG Nostr app for iOS that helped kickstart the social revolution. They'll also be showcasing their new cross-platform app, Notedeck, designed for a more unified Nostr experience across devices. Grab some merch, get a demo, and connect directly with the developers.
Thursday, May 29 @ 1:00 PM
- Primal Meetup: Dive into Primal, the slickest Nostr experience available on web, Android, and iOS. With a built-in wallet, zapping your favorite creators and friends has never been easier. The team will be on-site for hands-on demos, Q\&A, merch giveaways, and deeper discussions on building the social layer of Bitcoin.
🎙️ Nostr Talks at Bitcoin 2025
If you want to hear from the minds building decentralized social, make sure you attend these two official conference sessions:
1. FROSTR Workshop: Multisig Nostr Signing
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🕚 Time: 11:30 AM – 12:00 PM
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📅 Date: Wednesday, May 28
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📍 Location: Developer Zone
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🎤 Speaker: nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqs9etjgzjglwlaxdhsveq0qksxyh6xpdpn8ajh69ruetrug957r3qf4ggfm (Austin Kelsay) @ Voltage\ A deep-dive into FROST-based multisig key management for Nostr. Geared toward devs and power users interested in key security.
2. Panel: Decentralizing Social Media
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🕑 Time: 2:00 PM – 2:30 PM
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📅 Date: Thursday, May 29
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📍 Location: Genesis Stage
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🎙️ Moderator: nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttjv4kxz7fwv3jhyettwfhhxuewd4jsqgxnqajr23msx5malhhcz8paa2t0r70gfjpyncsqx56ztyj2nyyvlq00heps - Bitcoin Strategy @ Roxom TV
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👥 Speakers:
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nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qqsy2ga7trfetvd3j65m3jptqw9k39wtq2mg85xz2w542p5dhg06e5qmhlpep – Early Bitcoin dev, CEO @ Sirius Business Ltd
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nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 – Analyst & Partner @ Ego Death Capital
Get the big-picture perspective on why decentralized social matters and how Nostr fits into the future of digital communication.
🌃 NOS VEGAS Meetup & Afterparty
Date: Wednesday, May 28\ Time: 7:00 PM – 1:00 AM\ Location: We All Scream Nightclub, 517 Fremont St., Las Vegas, NV 89101\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!
What to Expect:
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🎶 Live Music Stage – Featuring Ainsley Costello, Sara Jade, Able James, Martin Groom, Bobby Shell, Jessie Lark, and other V4V artists
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🪩 DJ Party Deck – With sets by nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cmgdae82uewd45kketyd9kxwetj9e3k7mf6xs6rgqgcwaehxw309ahx7um5wgh85mm694ek2unk9ehhyecqyq7hpmq75krx2zsywntgtpz5yzwjyg2c7sreardcqmcp0m67xrnkwylzzk4 , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgkwaehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejqqg967faye3x6fxgnul77ej23l5aew8yj0x2e4a3tq2mkrgzrcvecfsk8xlu3 , and more DJs throwing down
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🛰️ Live-streamed via Tunestr
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🧠 Nostr Education – Talks by nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq37amnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3dwfjkccte9ejx2un9ddex7umn9ekk2tcqyqlhwrt96wnkf2w9edgr4cfruchvwkv26q6asdhz4qg08pm6w3djg3c8m4j , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqg7waehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejz7ur0wp6kcctjqqspywh6ulgc0w3k6mwum97m7jkvtxh0lcjr77p9jtlc7f0d27wlxpslwvhau , nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3vamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd33xgetk9en82m30qqsgqke57uygxl0m8elstq26c4mq2erz3dvdtgxwswwvhdh0xcs04sc4u9p7d , nostr:nprofile1q9z8wumn8ghj7erzx3jkvmmzw4eny6tvw368wdt8da4kxamrdvek76mrwg6rwdngw94k67t3v36k77tev3kx7vn2xa5kjem9dp4hjepwd3hkxctvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnhd9hx2qpqyaul8k059377u9lsu67de7y637w4jtgeuwcmh5n7788l6xnlnrgssuy4zk , nostr:nprofile1qy28wue69uhnzvpwxqhrqt33xgmn5dfsx5cqz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmnyqqswavgevxe9gs43vwylumr7h656mu9vxmw4j6qkafc3nefphzpph8ssvcgf8 , and more.
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🧾 Vendors & Project Booths – Explore new tools and services
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🔐 Onboarding Stations – Learn how to use Nostr hands-on
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🐦 Nostrich Flocking – Meet your favorite nyms IRL
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🍸 Three Full Bars – Two floors of socializing overlooking vibrant Fremont Street
| | | | | ----------- | -------------------- | ------------------- | | Time | Name | Topic | | 7:30-7:50 | Derek | Nostr for Beginners | | 8:00-8:20 | Mark & Paul | Primal | | 8:30-8:50 | Terry | Damus | | 9:00-9:20 | OpenMike and Ainsley | V4V | | 09:30-09:50 | The Space | Space |
This is the after-party of the year for those who love freedom technology and decentralized social community. Don’t miss it.
Final Thoughts
Whether you're there to learn, network, party, or build, Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas has a packed week of Nostr-friendly programming. Be sure to catch all the events, visit the Nostr Lounge, and experience the growing decentralized social revolution.
🟣 Find us. Flock with us. Purple pill someone.
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@ b83a28b7:35919450
2025-05-16 19:26:56This article was originally part of the sermon of Plebchain Radio Episode 111 (May 2, 2025) that nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpqtvqc82mv8cezhax5r34n4muc2c4pgjz8kaye2smj032nngg52clq7fgefr and I did with nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7ct4w35zumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyzx4h2fv3n9r6hrnjtcrjw43t0g0cmmrgvjmg525rc8hexkxc0kd2rhtk62 and nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpq4wxtsrj7g2jugh70pfkzjln43vgn4p7655pgky9j9w9d75u465pqahkzd0 of the nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyqwfvwrccp4j2xsuuvkwg0y6a20637t6f4cc5zzjkx030dkztt7t5hydajn
Listen to the full episode here:
<<https://fountain.fm/episode/Ln9Ej0zCZ5dEwfo8w2Ho>>
Bitcoin has always been a narrative revolution disguised as code. White paper, cypherpunk lore, pizza‑day legends - every block is a paragraph in the world’s most relentless epic. But code alone rarely converts the skeptic; it’s the camp‑fire myth that slips past the prefrontal cortex and shakes hands with the limbic system. People don’t adopt protocols first - they fall in love with protagonists.
Early adopters heard the white‑paper hymn, but most folks need characters first: a pizza‑day dreamer; a mother in a small country, crushed by the cost of remittance; a Warsaw street vendor swapping złoty for sats. When their arcs land, the brain releases a neurochemical OP_RETURN which says, “I belong in this plot.” That’s the sly roundabout orange pill: conviction smuggled inside catharsis.
That’s why, from 22–25 May in Warsaw’s Kinoteka, the Bitcoin Film Fest is loading its reels with rebellion. Each documentary, drama, and animated rabbit‑hole is a stealth wallet, zipping conviction straight into the feels of anyone still clasped within the cold claw of fiat. You come for the plot, you leave checking block heights.
Here's the clip of the sermon from the episode:
nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqqsy43fwz8es2wnn65rh0udc05tumdnx5xagvzd88ptncspmesdqhygcrvpf2
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-16 18:06:46Bitcoin has always been rooted in freedom and resistance to authority. I get that many of you are conflicted about the US Government stacking but by design we cannot stop anyone from using bitcoin. Many have asked me for my thoughts on the matter, so let’s rip it.
Concern
One of the most glaring issues with the strategic bitcoin reserve is its foundation, built on stolen bitcoin. For those of us who value private property this is an obvious betrayal of our core principles. Rather than proof of work, the bitcoin that seeds this reserve has been taken by force. The US Government should return the bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex and the Silk Road.
Using stolen bitcoin for the reserve creates a perverse incentive. If governments see bitcoin as a valuable asset, they will ramp up efforts to confiscate more bitcoin. The precedent is a major concern, and I stand strongly against it, but it should be also noted that governments were already seizing coin before the reserve so this is not really a change in policy.
Ideally all seized bitcoin should be burned, by law. This would align incentives properly and make it less likely for the government to actively increase coin seizures. Due to the truly scarce properties of bitcoin, all burned bitcoin helps existing holders through increased purchasing power regardless. This change would be unlikely but those of us in policy circles should push for it regardless. It would be best case scenario for American bitcoiners and would create a strong foundation for the next century of American leadership.
Optimism
The entire point of bitcoin is that we can spend or save it without permission. That said, it is a massive benefit to not have one of the strongest governments in human history actively trying to ruin our lives.
Since the beginning, bitcoiners have faced horrible regulatory trends. KYC, surveillance, and legal cases have made using bitcoin and building bitcoin businesses incredibly difficult. It is incredibly important to note that over the past year that trend has reversed for the first time in a decade. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a key driver of this shift. By holding bitcoin, the strongest government in the world has signaled that it is not just a fringe technology but rather truly valuable, legitimate, and worth stacking.
This alignment of incentives changes everything. The US Government stacking proves bitcoin’s worth. The resulting purchasing power appreciation helps all of us who are holding coin and as bitcoin succeeds our government receives direct benefit. A beautiful positive feedback loop.
Realism
We are trending in the right direction. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a sign that the state sees bitcoin as an asset worth embracing rather than destroying. That said, there is a lot of work left to be done. We cannot be lulled into complacency, the time to push forward is now, and we cannot take our foot off the gas. We have a seat at the table for the first time ever. Let's make it worth it.
We must protect the right to free usage of bitcoin and other digital technologies. Freedom in the digital age must be taken and defended, through both technical and political avenues. Multiple privacy focused developers are facing long jail sentences for building tools that protect our freedom. These cases are not just legal battles. They are attacks on the soul of bitcoin. We need to rally behind them, fight for their freedom, and ensure the ethos of bitcoin survives this new era of government interest. The strategic reserve is a step in the right direction, but it is up to us to hold the line and shape the future.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-16 17:59:23Recently we have seen a wave of high profile X accounts hacked. These attacks have exposed the fragility of the status quo security model used by modern social media platforms like X. Many users have asked if nostr fixes this, so lets dive in. How do these types of attacks translate into the world of nostr apps? For clarity, I will use X’s security model as representative of most big tech social platforms and compare it to nostr.
The Status Quo
On X, you never have full control of your account. Ultimately to use it requires permission from the company. They can suspend your account or limit your distribution. Theoretically they can even post from your account at will. An X account is tied to an email and password. Users can also opt into two factor authentication, which adds an extra layer of protection, a login code generated by an app. In theory, this setup works well, but it places a heavy burden on users. You need to create a strong, unique password and safeguard it. You also need to ensure your email account and phone number remain secure, as attackers can exploit these to reset your credentials and take over your account. Even if you do everything responsibly, there is another weak link in X infrastructure itself. The platform’s infrastructure allows accounts to be reset through its backend. This could happen maliciously by an employee or through an external attacker who compromises X’s backend. When an account is compromised, the legitimate user often gets locked out, unable to post or regain control without contacting X’s support team. That process can be slow, frustrating, and sometimes fruitless if support denies the request or cannot verify your identity. Often times support will require users to provide identification info in order to regain access, which represents a privacy risk. The centralized nature of X means you are ultimately at the mercy of the company’s systems and staff.
Nostr Requires Responsibility
Nostr flips this model radically. Users do not need permission from a company to access their account, they can generate as many accounts as they want, and cannot be easily censored. The key tradeoff here is that users have to take complete responsibility for their security. Instead of relying on a username, password, and corporate servers, nostr uses a private key as the sole credential for your account. Users generate this key and it is their responsibility to keep it safe. As long as you have your key, you can post. If someone else gets it, they can post too. It is that simple. This design has strong implications. Unlike X, there is no backend reset option. If your key is compromised or lost, there is no customer support to call. In a compromise scenario, both you and the attacker can post from the account simultaneously. Neither can lock the other out, since nostr relays simply accept whatever is signed with a valid key.
The benefit? No reliance on proprietary corporate infrastructure.. The negative? Security rests entirely on how well you protect your key.
Future Nostr Security Improvements
For many users, nostr’s standard security model, storing a private key on a phone with an encrypted cloud backup, will likely be sufficient. It is simple and reasonably secure. That said, nostr’s strength lies in its flexibility as an open protocol. Users will be able to choose between a range of security models, balancing convenience and protection based on need.
One promising option is a web of trust model for key rotation. Imagine pre-selecting a group of trusted friends. If your account is compromised, these people could collectively sign an event announcing the compromise to the network and designate a new key as your legitimate one. Apps could handle this process seamlessly in the background, notifying followers of the switch without much user interaction. This could become a popular choice for average users, but it is not without tradeoffs. It requires trust in your chosen web of trust, which might not suit power users or large organizations. It also has the issue that some apps may not recognize the key rotation properly and followers might get confused about which account is “real.”
For those needing higher security, there is the option of multisig using FROST (Flexible Round-Optimized Schnorr Threshold). In this setup, multiple keys must sign off on every action, including posting and updating a profile. A hacker with just one key could not do anything. This is likely overkill for most users due to complexity and inconvenience, but it could be a game changer for large organizations, companies, and governments. Imagine the White House nostr account requiring signatures from multiple people before a post goes live, that would be much more secure than the status quo big tech model.
Another option are hardware signers, similar to bitcoin hardware wallets. Private keys are kept on secure, offline devices, separate from the internet connected phone or computer you use to broadcast events. This drastically reduces the risk of remote hacks, as private keys never touches the internet. It can be used in combination with multisig setups for extra protection. This setup is much less convenient and probably overkill for most but could be ideal for governments, companies, or other high profile accounts.
Nostr’s security model is not perfect but is robust and versatile. Ultimately users are in control and security is their responsibility. Apps will give users multiple options to choose from and users will choose what best fits their need.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-16 17:51:54In much of the world, it is incredibly difficult to access U.S. dollars. Local currencies are often poorly managed and riddled with corruption. Billions of people demand a more reliable alternative. While the dollar has its own issues of corruption and mismanagement, it is widely regarded as superior to the fiat currencies it competes with globally. As a result, Tether has found massive success providing low cost, low friction access to dollars. Tether claims 400 million total users, is on track to add 200 million more this year, processes 8.1 million transactions daily, and facilitates $29 billion in daily transfers. Furthermore, their estimates suggest nearly 40% of users rely on it as a savings tool rather than just a transactional currency.
Tether’s rise has made the company a financial juggernaut. Last year alone, Tether raked in over $13 billion in profit, with a lean team of less than 100 employees. Their business model is elegantly simple: hold U.S. Treasuries and collect the interest. With over $113 billion in Treasuries, Tether has turned a straightforward concept into a profit machine.
Tether’s success has resulted in many competitors eager to claim a piece of the pie. This has triggered a massive venture capital grift cycle in USD tokens, with countless projects vying to dethrone Tether. Due to Tether’s entrenched network effect, these challengers face an uphill battle with little realistic chance of success. Most educated participants in the space likely recognize this reality but seem content to perpetuate the grift, hoping to cash out by dumping their equity positions on unsuspecting buyers before they realize the reality of the situation.
Historically, Tether’s greatest vulnerability has been U.S. government intervention. For over a decade, the company operated offshore with few allies in the U.S. establishment, making it a major target for regulatory action. That dynamic has shifted recently and Tether has seized the opportunity. By actively courting U.S. government support, Tether has fortified their position. This strategic move will likely cement their status as the dominant USD token for years to come.
While undeniably a great tool for the millions of users that rely on it, Tether is not without flaws. As a centralized, trusted third party, it holds the power to freeze or seize funds at its discretion. Corporate mismanagement or deliberate malpractice could also lead to massive losses at scale. In their goal of mitigating regulatory risk, Tether has deepened ties with law enforcement, mirroring some of the concerns of potential central bank digital currencies. In practice, Tether operates as a corporate CBDC alternative, collaborating with authorities to surveil and seize funds. The company proudly touts partnerships with leading surveillance firms and its own data reveals cooperation in over 1,000 law enforcement cases, with more than $2.5 billion in funds frozen.
The global demand for Tether is undeniable and the company’s profitability reflects its unrivaled success. Tether is owned and operated by bitcoiners and will likely continue to push forward strategic goals that help the movement as a whole. Recent efforts to mitigate the threat of U.S. government enforcement will likely solidify their network effect and stifle meaningful adoption of rival USD tokens or CBDCs. Yet, for all their achievements, Tether is simply a worse form of money than bitcoin. Tether requires trust in a centralized entity, while bitcoin can be saved or spent without permission. Furthermore, Tether is tied to the value of the US Dollar which is designed to lose purchasing power over time, while bitcoin, as a truly scarce asset, is designed to increase in purchasing power with adoption. As people awaken to the risks of Tether’s control, and the benefits bitcoin provides, bitcoin adoption will likely surpass it.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-16 17:12:05One of the most common criticisms leveled against nostr is the perceived lack of assurance when it comes to data storage. Critics argue that without a centralized authority guaranteeing that all data is preserved, important information will be lost. They also claim that running a relay will become prohibitively expensive. While there is truth to these concerns, they miss the mark. The genius of nostr lies in its flexibility, resilience, and the way it harnesses human incentives to ensure data availability in practice.
A nostr relay is simply a server that holds cryptographically verifiable signed data and makes it available to others. Relays are simple, flexible, open, and require no permission to run. Critics are right that operating a relay attempting to store all nostr data will be costly. What they miss is that most will not run all encompassing archive relays. Nostr does not rely on massive archive relays. Instead, anyone can run a relay and choose to store whatever subset of data they want. This keeps costs low and operations flexible, making relay operation accessible to all sorts of individuals and entities with varying use cases.
Critics are correct that there is no ironclad guarantee that every piece of data will always be available. Unlike bitcoin where data permanence is baked into the system at a steep cost, nostr does not promise that every random note or meme will be preserved forever. That said, in practice, any data perceived as valuable by someone will likely be stored and distributed by multiple entities. If something matters to someone, they will keep a signed copy.
Nostr is the Streisand Effect in protocol form. The Streisand effect is when an attempt to suppress information backfires, causing it to spread even further. With nostr, anyone can broadcast signed data, anyone can store it, and anyone can distribute it. Try to censor something important? Good luck. The moment it catches attention, it will be stored on relays across the globe, copied, and shared by those who find it worth keeping. Data deemed important will be replicated across servers by individuals acting in their own interest.
Nostr’s distributed nature ensures that the system does not rely on a single point of failure or a corporate overlord. Instead, it leans on the collective will of its users. The result is a network where costs stay manageable, participation is open to all, and valuable verifiable data is stored and distributed forever.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-05-15 15:31:45Capitalism is the most effective system for scaling innovation. The pursuit of profit is an incredibly powerful human incentive. Most major improvements to human society and quality of life have resulted from this base incentive. Market competition often results in the best outcomes for all.
That said, some projects can never be monetized. They are open in nature and a business model would centralize control. Open protocols like bitcoin and nostr are not owned by anyone and if they were it would destroy the key value propositions they provide. No single entity can or should control their use. Anyone can build on them without permission.
As a result, open protocols must depend on donation based grant funding from the people and organizations that rely on them. This model works but it is slow and uncertain, a grind where sustainability is never fully reached but rather constantly sought. As someone who has been incredibly active in the open source grant funding space, I do not think people truly appreciate how difficult it is to raise charitable money and deploy it efficiently.
Projects that can be monetized should be. Profitability is a super power. When a business can generate revenue, it taps into a self sustaining cycle. Profit fuels growth and development while providing projects independence and agency. This flywheel effect is why companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple have scaled to global dominance. The profit incentive aligns human effort with efficiency. Businesses must innovate, cut waste, and deliver value to survive.
Contrast this with non monetized projects. Without profit, they lean on external support, which can dry up or shift with donor priorities. A profit driven model, on the other hand, is inherently leaner and more adaptable. It is not charity but survival. When survival is tied to delivering what people want, scale follows naturally.
The real magic happens when profitable, sustainable businesses are built on top of open protocols and software. Consider the many startups building on open source software stacks, such as Start9, Mempool, and Primal, offering premium services on top of the open source software they build out and maintain. Think of companies like Block or Strike, which leverage bitcoin’s open protocol to offer their services on top. These businesses amplify the open software and protocols they build on, driving adoption and improvement at a pace donations alone could never match.
When you combine open software and protocols with profit driven business the result are lean, sustainable companies that grow faster and serve more people than either could alone. Bitcoin’s network, for instance, benefits from businesses that profit off its existence, while nostr will expand as developers monetize apps built on the protocol.
Capitalism scales best because competition results in efficiency. Donation funded protocols and software lay the groundwork, while market driven businesses build on top. The profit incentive acts as a filter, ensuring resources flow to what works, while open systems keep the playing field accessible, empowering users and builders. Together, they create a flywheel of innovation, growth, and global benefit.
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@ efe5d120:1fc51981
2025-05-15 12:53:31It’s not big government programs or powerful institutions that make a society strong. It’s something much simpler: everyday people trading and working together.
Think about the local hardware store owner. He helps his neighbors, gives people jobs, and provides useful tools. But when the government taxes him too much to fund its programs, it takes away money he could have used to hire someone or visit his family. That hurts both him and the people around him.
This happens all over. Small business owners, tradesmen, inventors and entrepreneurs are the ones who really build up a society. They create value by trading things people want, and both sides benefit. Free trade gives people more choices and helps them live better lives.
But from a young age, we’re told to obey authority without question. We’re taught that without rulers, there would be chaos. But what if that’s not true?
Look around the world: even when governments try to control trade, people still find ways to work together and exchange goods. It’s natural. People want to cooperate and help each other—especially when they’re free to do so.
Here’s the hard truth: if someone can take your money, control your property, and punish you without your agreement, isn’t that a kind of control—or even servitude?
True prosperity doesn’t come from the top down. It comes from people freely working together—farmers, builders, cooks, coders—offering their skills to others who need them.
When trade is free, people do well. When it’s blocked by too many rules or taxes, everyone loses—especially the ones who need help the most.
The answer isn’t more laws or more control. It’s more freedom. Next time someone says we need more government to fix things, ask yourself: wouldn’t free people solve those problems better on their own?
Real civilization isn’t about being ruled. It’s about choosing to work together, trade fairly, and respect each other’s rights. That’s not chaos—that’s freedom.
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-05-09 13:56:57Someone asked for my thoughts, so I’ll share them thoughtfully. I’m not here to dictate how to promote Nostr—I’m still learning about it myself. While I’m not new to Nostr, freedom tech is a newer space for me. I’m skilled at advocating for topics I deeply understand, but freedom tech isn’t my expertise, so take my words with a grain of salt. Nothing I say is set in stone.
Those who need Nostr the most are the ones most vulnerable to censorship on other platforms right now. Reaching them requires real-time awareness of global issues and the dynamic relationships between governments and tech providers, which can shift suddenly. Effective Nostr promoters must grasp this and adapt quickly.
The best messengers are people from or closely tied to these at-risk regions—those who truly understand the local political and cultural dynamics. They can connect with those in need when tensions rise. Ideal promoters are rational, trustworthy, passionate about Nostr, but above all, dedicated to amplifying people’s voices when it matters most.
Forget influencers, corporate-backed figures, or traditional online PR—it comes off as inauthentic, corny, desperate and forced. Nostr’s promotion should be grassroots and organic, driven by a few passionate individuals who believe in Nostr and the communities they serve.
The idea that “people won’t join Nostr due to lack of reach” is nonsense. Everyone knows X’s “reach” is mostly with bots. If humans want real conversations, Nostr is the place. X is great for propaganda, but Nostr is for the authentic voices of the people.
Those spreading Nostr must be so passionate they’re willing to onboard others, which is time-consuming but rewarding for the right person. They’ll need to make Nostr and onboarding a core part of who they are. I see no issue with that level of dedication. I’ve been known to get that way myself at times. It’s fun for some folks.
With love, I suggest not adding Bitcoin promotion with Nostr outreach. Zaps already integrate that element naturally. (Still promote within the Bitcoin ecosystem, but this is about reaching vulnerable voices who needed Nostr yesterday.)
To promote Nostr, forget conventional strategies. “Influencers” aren’t the answer. “Influencers” are not the future. A trusted local community member has real influence—reach them. Connect with people seeking Nostr’s benefits but lacking the technical language to express it. This means some in the Nostr community might need to step outside of the Bitcoin bubble, which is uncomfortable but necessary. Thank you in advance to those who are willing to do that.
I don’t know who is paid to promote Nostr, if anyone. This piece isn’t shade. But it’s exhausting to see innocent voices globally silenced on corporate platforms like X while Nostr exists. Last night, I wondered: how many more voices must be censored before the Nostr community gets uncomfortable and thinks creatively to reach the vulnerable?
A warning: the global need for censorship-resistant social media is undeniable. If Nostr doesn’t make itself known, something else will fill that void. Let’s start this conversation.
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@ 26769dac:498e333b
2025-05-25 12:51:09Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up
We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time
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@ d61f3bc5:0da6ef4a
2025-05-06 01:37:28I remember the first gathering of Nostr devs two years ago in Costa Rica. We were all psyched because Nostr appeared to solve the problem of self-sovereign online identity and decentralized publishing. The protocol seemed well-suited for textual content, but it wasn't really designed to handle binary files, like images or video.
The Problem
When I publish a note that contains an image link, the note itself is resilient thanks to Nostr, but if the hosting service disappears or takes my image down, my note will be broken forever. We need a way to publish binary data without relying on a single hosting provider.
We were discussing how there really was no reliable solution to this problem even outside of Nostr. Peer-to-peer attempts like IPFS simply didn't work; they were hopelessly slow and unreliable in practice. Torrents worked for popular files like movies, but couldn't be relied on for general file hosting.
Awesome Blossom
A year later, I attended the Sovereign Engineering demo day in Madeira, organized by Pablo and Gigi. Many projects were presented over a three hour demo session that day, but one really stood out for me.
Introduced by hzrd149 and Stu Bowman, Blossom blew my mind because it showed how we can solve complex problems easily by simply relying on the fact that Nostr exists. Having an open user directory, with the corresponding social graph and web of trust is an incredible building block.
Since we can easily look up any user on Nostr and read their profile metadata, we can just get them to simply tell us where their files are stored. This, combined with hash-based addressing (borrowed from IPFS), is all we need to solve our problem.
How Blossom Works
The Blossom protocol (Blobs Stored Simply on Mediaservers) is formally defined in a series of BUDs (Blossom Upgrade Documents). Yes, Blossom is the most well-branded protocol in the history of protocols. Feel free to refer to the spec for details, but I will provide a high level explanation here.
The main idea behind Blossom can be summarized in three points:
- Users specify which media server(s) they use via their public Blossom settings published on Nostr;
- All files are uniquely addressable via hashes;
- If an app fails to load a file from the original URL, it simply goes to get it from the server(s) specified in the user's Blossom settings.
Just like Nostr itself, the Blossom protocol is dead-simple and it works!
Let's use this image as an example:
If you look at the URL for this image, you will notice that it looks like this:
blossom.primal.net/c1aa63f983a44185d039092912bfb7f33adcf63ed3cae371ebe6905da5f688d0.jpg
All Blossom URLs follow this format:
[server]/[file-hash].[extension]
The file hash is important because it uniquely identifies the file in question. Apps can use it to verify that the file they received is exactly the file they requested. It also gives us the ability to reliably get the same file from a different server.
Nostr users declare which media server(s) they use by publishing their Blossom settings. If I store my files on Server A, and they get removed, I can simply upload them to Server B, update my public Blossom settings, and all Blossom-capable apps will be able to find them at the new location. All my existing notes will continue to display media content without any issues.
Blossom Mirroring
Let's face it, re-uploading files to another server after they got removed from the original server is not the best user experience. Most people wouldn't have the backups of all the files, and/or the desire to do this work.
This is where Blossom's mirroring feature comes handy. In addition to the primary media server, a Blossom user can set one one or more mirror servers. Under this setup, every time a file is uploaded to the primary server the Nostr app issues a mirror request to the primary server, directing it to copy the file to all the specified mirrors. This way there is always a copy of all content on multiple servers and in case the primary becomes unavailable, Blossom-capable apps will automatically start loading from the mirror.
Mirrors are really easy to setup (you can do it in two clicks in Primal) and this arrangement ensures robust media handling without any central points of failure. Note that you can use professional media hosting services side by side with self-hosted backup servers that anyone can run at home.
Using Blossom Within Primal
Blossom is natively integrated into the entire Primal stack and enabled by default. If you are using Primal 2.2 or later, you don't need to do anything to enable Blossom, all your media uploads are blossoming already.
To enhance user privacy, all Primal apps use the "/media" endpoint per BUD-05, which strips all metadata from uploaded files before they are saved and optionally mirrored to other Blossom servers, per user settings. You can use any Blossom server as your primary media server in Primal, as well as setup any number of mirrors:
## Conclusion
For such a simple protocol, Blossom gives us three major benefits:
- Verifiable authenticity. All Nostr notes are always signed by the note author. With Blossom, the signed note includes a unique hash for each referenced media file, making it impossible to falsify.
- File hosting redundancy. Having multiple live copies of referenced media files (via Blossom mirroring) greatly increases the resiliency of media content published on Nostr.
- Censorship resistance. Blossom enables us to seamlessly switch media hosting providers in case of censorship.
Thanks for reading; and enjoy! 🌸
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@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5
2025-05-20 08:46:08 -
@ 26769dac:498e333b
2025-05-25 12:24:47Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up
We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time
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@ 266815e0:6cd408a5
2025-05-02 22:24:59Its been six long months of refactoring code and building out to the applesauce packages but the app is stable enough for another release.
This update is pretty much a full rewrite of the non-visible parts of the app. all the background services were either moved out to the applesauce packages or rewritten, the result is that noStrudel is a little faster and much more consistent with connections and publishing.
New layout
The app has a new layout now, it takes advantage of the full desktop screen and looks a little better than it did before.
Removed NIP-72 communities
The NIP-72 communities are no longer part of the app, if you want to continue using them there are still a few apps that support them ( like satellite.earth ) but noStrudel won't support them going forward.
The communities where interesting but ultimately proved too have some fundamental flaws, most notably that all posts had to be approved by a moderator. There were some good ideas on how to improve it but they would have only been patches and wouldn't have fixed the underlying issues.
I wont promise to build it into noStrudel, but NIP-29 (relay based groups) look a lot more promising and already have better moderation abilities then NIP-72 communities could ever have.
Settings view
There is now a dedicated settings view, so no more hunting around for where the relays are set or trying to find how to add another account. its all in one place now
Cleaned up lists
The list views are a little cleaner now, and they have a simple edit modal
New emoji picker
Just another small improvement that makes the app feel more complete.
Experimental Wallet
There is a new "wallet" view in the app that lets you manage your NIP-60 cashu wallet. its very experimental and probably won't work for you, but its there and I hope to finish it up so the app can support NIP-61 nutzaps.
WARNING: Don't feed the wallet your hard earned sats, it will eat them!
Smaller improvements
- Added NSFW flag for replies
- Updated NIP-48 bunker login to work with new spec
- Linkfy BIPs
- Added 404 page
- Add NIP-22 comments under badges, files, and articles
- Add max height to timeline notes
- Fix articles view freezing on load
- Add option to mirror blobs when sharing notes
- Remove "open in drawer" for notes
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@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5
2025-05-20 08:46:06 -
@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-25 12:14:51Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus
Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a
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@ 2183e947:f497b975
2025-05-01 22:33:48Most darknet markets (DNMs) are designed poorly in the following ways:
1. Hosting
Most DNMs use a model whereby merchants fill out a form to create their listings, and the data they submit then gets hosted on the DNM's servers. In scenarios where a "legal" website would be forced to censor that content (e.g. a DMCA takedown order), DNMs, of course, do not obey. This can lead to authorities trying to find the DNM's servers to take enforcement actions against them. This design creates a single point of failure.
A better design is to outsource hosting to third parties. Let merchants host their listings on nostr relays, not on the DNM's server. The DNM should only be designed as an open source interface for exploring listings hosted elsewhere, that way takedown orders end up with the people who actually host the listings, i.e. with nostr relays, and not with the DNM itself. And if a nostr relay DOES go down due to enforcement action, it does not significantly affect the DNM -- they'll just stop querying for listings from that relay in their next software update, because that relay doesn't work anymore, and only query for listings from relays that still work.
2. Moderation
Most DNMs have employees who curate the listings on the DNM. For example, they approve/deny listings depending on whether they fit the content policies of the website. Some DNMs are only for drugs, others are only for firearms. The problem is, to approve a criminal listing is, in the eyes of law enforcement, an act of conspiracy. Consequently, they don't just go after the merchant who made the listing but the moderators who approved it, and since the moderators typically act under the direction of the DNM, this means the police go after the DNM itself.
A better design is to outsource moderation to third parties. Let anyone call themselves a moderator and create lists of approved goods and services. Merchants can pay the most popular third party moderators to add their products to their lists. The DNM itself just lets its users pick which moderators to use, such that the user's choice -- and not a choice by the DNM -- determines what goods and services the user sees in the interface.
That way, the police go after the moderators and merchants rather than the DNM itself, which is basically just a web browser: it doesn't host anything or approve of any content, it just shows what its users tell it to show. And if a popular moderator gets arrested, his list will still work for a while, but will gradually get more and more outdated, leading someone else to eventually become the new most popular moderator, and a natural transition can occur.
3. Escrow
Most DNMs offer an escrow solution whereby users do not pay merchants directly. Rather, during the Checkout process, they put their money in escrow, and request the DNM to release it to the merchant when the product arrives, otherwise they initiate a dispute. Most DNMs consider escrow necessary because DNM users and merchants do not trust one another; users don't want to pay for a product first and then discover that the merchant never ships it, and merchants don't want to ship a product first and then discover that the user never pays for it.
The problem is, running an escrow solution for criminals is almost certain to get you accused of conspiracy, money laundering, and unlicensed money transmission, so the police are likely to shut down any DNM that does this. A better design is to oursource escrow to third parties. Let anyone call themselves an escrow, and let moderators approve escrows just like they approve listings. A merchant or user who doesn't trust the escrows chosen by a given moderator can just pick a different moderator. That way, the police go after the third party escrows rather than the DNM itself, which never touches user funds.
4. Consequences
Designing a DNM along these principles has an interesting consequence: the DNM is no longer anything but an interface, a glorified web browser. It doesn't host any content, approve any listings, or touch any money. It doesn't even really need a server -- it can just be an HTML file that users open up on their computer or smart phone. For two reasons, such a program is hard to take down:
First, it is hard for the police to justify going after the DNM, since there are no charges to bring. Its maintainers aren't doing anything illegal, no more than Firefox does anything illegal by maintaining a web browser that some people use to browse illegal content. What the user displays in the app is up to them, not to the code maintainers. Second, if the police decided to go after the DNM anyway, they still couldn't take it down because it's just an HTML file -- the maintainers do not even need to run a server to host the file, because users can share it with one another, eliminating all single points of failure.
Another consequence of this design is this: most of the listings will probably be legal, because there is more demand for legal goods and services than illegal ones. Users who want to find illegal goods would pick moderators who only approve those listings, but everyone else would use "legal" moderators, and the app would not, at first glance, look much like a DNM, just a marketplace for legal goods and services. To find the illegal stuff that lurks among the abundant legal stuff, you'd probably have to filter for it via your selection of moderators, making it seem like the "default" mode is legal.
5. Conclusion
I think this DNM model is far better than the designs that prevail today. It is easier to maintain, harder to take down, and pushes the "hard parts" to the edges, so that the DNM is not significantly affected even if a major merchant, moderator, or escrow gets arrested. I hope it comes to fruition.
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@ 866e0139:6a9334e5
2025-05-25 11:03:13Autor: Alexa Rodrian. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.
Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.
„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.
Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.
https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian
Dieser Beitrag erschien zuerst auf Radio München.
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@ c230edd3:8ad4a712
2025-04-11 16:02:15Chef's notes
Wildly enough, this is delicious. It's sweet and savory.
(I copied this recipe off of a commercial cheese maker's site, just FYI)
I hadn't fully froze the ice cream when I took the picture shown. This is fresh out of the churner.
Details
- ⏲️ Prep time: 15 min
- 🍳 Cook time: 30 min
- 🍽️ Servings: 4
Ingredients
- 12 oz blue cheese
- 3 Tbsp lemon juice
- 1 c sugar
- 1 tsp salt
- 1 qt heavy cream
- 3/4 c chopped dark chocolate
Directions
- Put the blue cheese, lemon juice, sugar, and salt into a bowl
- Bring heavy cream to a boil, stirring occasionally
- Pour heavy cream over the blue cheese mix and stir until melted
- Pour into prepared ice cream maker, follow unit instructions
- Add dark chocolate halfway through the churning cycle
- Freeze until firm. Enjoy.
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-05-01 01:51:10Please respect Virginia Giuffre’s memory by refraining from asking about the circumstances or theories surrounding her passing.
Since Virginia Giuffre’s death, I’ve reflected on what she would want me to say or do. This piece is my attempt to honor her legacy.
When I first spoke with Virginia, I was struck by her unshakable hope. I had grown cynical after years in the anti-human trafficking movement, worn down by a broken system and a government that often seemed complicit. But Virginia’s passion, creativity, and belief that survivors could be heard reignited something in me. She reminded me of my younger, more hopeful self. Instead of warning her about the challenges ahead, I let her dream big, unburdened by my own disillusionment. That conversation changed me for the better, and following her lead led to meaningful progress.
Virginia was one of the bravest people I’ve ever known. As a survivor of Epstein, Maxwell, and their co-conspirators, she risked everything to speak out, taking on some of the world’s most powerful figures.
She loved when I said, “Epstein isn’t the only Epstein.” This wasn’t just about one man—it was a call to hold all abusers accountable and to ensure survivors find hope and healing.
The Epstein case often gets reduced to sensational details about the elite, but that misses the bigger picture. Yes, we should be holding all of the co-conspirators accountable, we must listen to the survivors’ stories. Their experiences reveal how predators exploit vulnerabilities, offering lessons to prevent future victims.
You’re not powerless in this fight. Educate yourself about trafficking and abuse—online and offline—and take steps to protect those around you. Supporting survivors starts with small, meaningful actions. Free online resources can guide you in being a safe, supportive presence.
When high-profile accusations arise, resist snap judgments. Instead of dismissing survivors as “crazy,” pause to consider the trauma they may be navigating. Speaking out or coping with abuse is never easy. You don’t have to believe every claim, but you can refrain from attacking accusers online.
Society also fails at providing aftercare for survivors. The government, often part of the problem, won’t solve this. It’s up to us. Prevention is critical, but when abuse occurs, step up for your loved ones and community. Protect the vulnerable. it’s a challenging but a rewarding journey.
If you’re contributing to Nostr, you’re helping build a censorship resistant platform where survivors can share their stories freely, no matter how powerful their abusers are. Their voices can endure here, offering strength and hope to others. This gives me great hope for the future.
Virginia Giuffre’s courage was a gift to the world. It was an honor to know and serve her. She will be deeply missed. My hope is that her story inspires others to take on the powerful.
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@ c230edd3:8ad4a712
2025-04-09 00:33:31Chef's notes
I found this recipe a couple years ago and have been addicted to it since. Its incredibly easy, and cheap to prep. Freeze the sausage in flat, single serving portions. That way it can be cooked from frozen for a fast, flavorful, and healthy lunch or dinner. I took inspiration from the video that contained this recipe, and almost always pan fry the frozen sausage with some baby broccoli. The steam cooks the broccoli and the fats from the sausage help it to sear, while infusing the vibrant flavors. Serve with some rice, if desired. I often use serrano peppers, due to limited produce availability. They work well for a little heat and nice flavor that is not overpowering.
Details
- ⏲️ Prep time: 25 min
- 🍳 Cook time: 15 min (only needed if cooking at time of prep)
- 🍽️ Servings: 10
Ingredients
- 4 lbs ground pork
- 12-15 cloves garlic, minced
- 6 Thai or Serrano peppers, rough chopped
- 1/4 c. lime juice
- 4 Tbsp fish sauce
- 1 Tbsp brown sugar
- 1/2 c. chopped cilantro
Directions
- Mix all ingredients in a large bowl.
- Portion and freeze, as desired.
- Sautè frozen portions in hot frying pan, with broccoli or other fresh veggies.
- Serve with rice or alone.
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@ b099870e:f3ba8f5d
2025-05-25 11:29:20Let me point out to you that freedom is not something that anybody can be given; freedom is something people take and people are as free as they want to be.
James Baldwin
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@ 00000001:b0c77eb9
2025-02-14 21:24:24مواقع التواصل الإجتماعي العامة هي التي تتحكم بك، تتحكم بك بفرض أجندتها وتجبرك على اتباعها وتحظر وتحذف كل ما يخالفها، وحرية التعبير تنحصر في أجندتها تلك!
وخوارزمياتها الخبيثة التي لا حاجة لها، تعرض لك مايريدون منك أن تراه وتحجب ما لا يريدونك أن تراه.
في نوستر انت المتحكم، انت الذي تحدد من تتابع و انت الذي تحدد المرحلات التي تنشر منشوراتك بها.
نوستر لامركزي، بمعنى عدم وجود سلطة تتحكم ببياناتك، بياناتك موجودة في المرحلات، ولا احد يستطيع حذفها او تعديلها او حظر ظهورها.
و هذا لا ينطبق فقط على مواقع التواصل الإجتماعي العامة، بل ينطبق أيضاً على الـfediverse، في الـfediverse انت لست حر، انت تتبع الخادم الذي تستخدمه ويستطيع هذا الخادم حظر ما لا يريد ظهوره لك، لأنك لا تتواصل مع بقية الخوادم بنفسك، بل خادمك من يقوم بذلك بالنيابة عنك.
وحتى إذا كنت تمتلك خادم في شبكة الـfediverse، إذا خالفت اجندة بقية الخوادم ونظرتهم عن حرية الرأي و التعبير سوف يندرج خادمك في القائمة السوداء fediblock ولن يتمكن خادمك من التواصل مع بقية خوادم الشبكة، ستكون محصوراً بالخوادم الأخرى المحظورة كخادمك، بالتالي انت في الشبكة الأخرى من الـfediverse!
نعم، يوجد شبكتان في الكون الفدرالي fediverse شبكة الصالحين التابعين للأجندة الغربية وشبكة الطالحين الذين لا يتبعون لها، إذا تم إدراج خادمك في قائمة fediblock سوف تذهب للشبكة الأخرى!
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@ 52b4a076:e7fad8bd
2025-04-28 00:48:57I have been recently building NFDB, a new relay DB. This post is meant as a short overview.
Regular relays have challenges
Current relay software have significant challenges, which I have experienced when hosting Nostr.land: - Scalability is only supported by adding full replicas, which does not scale to large relays. - Most relays use slow databases and are not optimized for large scale usage. - Search is near-impossible to implement on standard relays. - Privacy features such as NIP-42 are lacking. - Regular DB maintenance tasks on normal relays require extended downtime. - Fault-tolerance is implemented, if any, using a load balancer, which is limited. - Personalization and advanced filtering is not possible. - Local caching is not supported.
NFDB: A scalable database for large relays
NFDB is a new database meant for medium-large scale relays, built on FoundationDB that provides: - Near-unlimited scalability - Extended fault tolerance - Instant loading - Better search - Better personalization - and more.
Search
NFDB has extended search capabilities including: - Semantic search: Search for meaning, not words. - Interest-based search: Highlight content you care about. - Multi-faceted queries: Easily filter by topic, author group, keywords, and more at the same time. - Wide support for event kinds, including users, articles, etc.
Personalization
NFDB allows significant personalization: - Customized algorithms: Be your own algorithm. - Spam filtering: Filter content to your WoT, and use advanced spam filters. - Topic mutes: Mute topics, not keywords. - Media filtering: With Nostr.build, you will be able to filter NSFW and other content - Low data mode: Block notes that use high amounts of cellular data. - and more
Other
NFDB has support for many other features such as: - NIP-42: Protect your privacy with private drafts and DMs - Microrelays: Easily deploy your own personal microrelay - Containers: Dedicated, fast storage for discoverability events such as relay lists
Calcite: A local microrelay database
Calcite is a lightweight, local version of NFDB that is meant for microrelays and caching, meant for thousands of personal microrelays.
Calcite HA is an additional layer that allows live migration and relay failover in under 30 seconds, providing higher availability compared to current relays with greater simplicity. Calcite HA is enabled in all Calcite deployments.
For zero-downtime, NFDB is recommended.
Noswhere SmartCache
Relays are fixed in one location, but users can be anywhere.
Noswhere SmartCache is a CDN for relays that dynamically caches data on edge servers closest to you, allowing: - Multiple regions around the world - Improved throughput and performance - Faster loading times
routerd
routerd
is a custom load-balancer optimized for Nostr relays, integrated with SmartCache.routerd
is specifically integrated with NFDB and Calcite HA to provide fast failover and high performance.Ending notes
NFDB is planned to be deployed to Nostr.land in the coming weeks.
A lot more is to come. 👀️️️️️️
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@ a39d19ec:3d88f61e
2025-04-22 12:44:42Die Debatte um Migration, Grenzsicherung und Abschiebungen wird in Deutschland meist emotional geführt. Wer fordert, dass illegale Einwanderer abgeschoben werden, sieht sich nicht selten dem Vorwurf des Rassismus ausgesetzt. Doch dieser Vorwurf ist nicht nur sachlich unbegründet, sondern verkehrt die Realität ins Gegenteil: Tatsächlich sind es gerade diejenigen, die hinter jeder Forderung nach Rechtssicherheit eine rassistische Motivation vermuten, die selbst in erster Linie nach Hautfarbe, Herkunft oder Nationalität urteilen.
Das Recht steht über Emotionen
Deutschland ist ein Rechtsstaat. Das bedeutet, dass Regeln nicht nach Bauchgefühl oder politischer Stimmungslage ausgelegt werden können, sondern auf klaren gesetzlichen Grundlagen beruhen müssen. Einer dieser Grundsätze ist in Artikel 16a des Grundgesetzes verankert. Dort heißt es:
„Auf Absatz 1 [Asylrecht] kann sich nicht berufen, wer aus einem Mitgliedstaat der Europäischen Gemeinschaften oder aus einem anderen Drittstaat einreist, in dem die Anwendung des Abkommens über die Rechtsstellung der Flüchtlinge und der Europäischen Menschenrechtskonvention sichergestellt ist.“
Das bedeutet, dass jeder, der über sichere Drittstaaten nach Deutschland einreist, keinen Anspruch auf Asyl hat. Wer dennoch bleibt, hält sich illegal im Land auf und unterliegt den geltenden Regelungen zur Rückführung. Die Forderung nach Abschiebungen ist daher nichts anderes als die Forderung nach der Einhaltung von Recht und Gesetz.
Die Umkehrung des Rassismusbegriffs
Wer einerseits behauptet, dass das deutsche Asyl- und Aufenthaltsrecht strikt durchgesetzt werden soll, und andererseits nicht nach Herkunft oder Hautfarbe unterscheidet, handelt wertneutral. Diejenigen jedoch, die in einer solchen Forderung nach Rechtsstaatlichkeit einen rassistischen Unterton sehen, projizieren ihre eigenen Denkmuster auf andere: Sie unterstellen, dass die Debatte ausschließlich entlang ethnischer, rassistischer oder nationaler Kriterien geführt wird – und genau das ist eine rassistische Denkweise.
Jemand, der illegale Einwanderung kritisiert, tut dies nicht, weil ihn die Herkunft der Menschen interessiert, sondern weil er den Rechtsstaat respektiert. Hingegen erkennt jemand, der hinter dieser Kritik Rassismus wittert, offenbar in erster Linie die „Rasse“ oder Herkunft der betreffenden Personen und reduziert sie darauf.
Finanzielle Belastung statt ideologischer Debatte
Neben der rechtlichen gibt es auch eine ökonomische Komponente. Der deutsche Wohlfahrtsstaat basiert auf einem Solidarprinzip: Die Bürger zahlen in das System ein, um sich gegenseitig in schwierigen Zeiten zu unterstützen. Dieser Wohlstand wurde über Generationen hinweg von denjenigen erarbeitet, die hier seit langem leben. Die Priorität liegt daher darauf, die vorhandenen Mittel zuerst unter denjenigen zu verteilen, die durch Steuern, Sozialabgaben und Arbeit zum Erhalt dieses Systems beitragen – nicht unter denen, die sich durch illegale Einreise und fehlende wirtschaftliche Eigenleistung in das System begeben.
Das ist keine ideologische Frage, sondern eine rein wirtschaftliche Abwägung. Ein Sozialsystem kann nur dann nachhaltig funktionieren, wenn es nicht unbegrenzt belastet wird. Würde Deutschland keine klaren Regeln zur Einwanderung und Abschiebung haben, würde dies unweigerlich zur Überlastung des Sozialstaates führen – mit negativen Konsequenzen für alle.
Sozialpatriotismus
Ein weiterer wichtiger Aspekt ist der Schutz der Arbeitsleistung jener Generationen, die Deutschland nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg mühsam wieder aufgebaut haben. Während oft betont wird, dass die Deutschen moralisch kein Erbe aus der Zeit vor 1945 beanspruchen dürfen – außer der Verantwortung für den Holocaust –, ist es umso bedeutsamer, das neue Erbe nach 1945 zu respektieren, das auf Fleiß, Disziplin und harter Arbeit beruht. Der Wiederaufbau war eine kollektive Leistung deutscher Menschen, deren Früchte nicht bedenkenlos verteilt werden dürfen, sondern vorrangig denjenigen zugutekommen sollten, die dieses Fundament mitgeschaffen oder es über Generationen mitgetragen haben.
Rechtstaatlichkeit ist nicht verhandelbar
Wer sich für eine konsequente Abschiebepraxis ausspricht, tut dies nicht aus rassistischen Motiven, sondern aus Respekt vor der Rechtsstaatlichkeit und den wirtschaftlichen Grundlagen des Landes. Der Vorwurf des Rassismus in diesem Kontext ist daher nicht nur falsch, sondern entlarvt eine selektive Wahrnehmung nach rassistischen Merkmalen bei denjenigen, die ihn erheben.
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@ 975e4ad5:8d4847ce
2025-05-25 10:43:35Selfishness as Bitcoin’s Engine
Bitcoin, created by Satoshi Nakamoto, operates on a clear mechanism: miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, verifying transactions on the network. In return, they earn rewards in Bitcoin. This is pure self-interest—miners want to maximize their profits. But while pursuing personal gain, they inadvertently maintain the entire system. Each new block added to the blockchain makes the network more stable and resilient against attacks. The more miners join, the more decentralized the system becomes, rendering it nearly impossible to manipulate.
This mechanism is brilliant because it taps into human nature—the desire for personal gain—to create something greater. Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altruism or good intentions. It relies on rational self-interest, which drives individuals to act in their own favor, ultimately benefiting the entire community.
The World Works the Same Way
This concept isn’t unique to Bitcoin. The world is full of examples where personal interest leads to collective progress. When an entrepreneur creates a new product, they do so to make money, but in the process, they create jobs, advance technology, and improve people’s lives. When a scientist works on a breakthrough, they may be driven by fame or financial reward, but the result is often a discovery that changes the world. Even in everyday life, when we buy products or services for our own convenience, we support the economy and encourage innovation.
Of course, self-interest doesn’t always lead to positive outcomes. Technologies created with good intentions can be misused—for example, in wars or for fraud. But even these negative aspects don’t halt progress. Competition and the drive for survival push humanity to find solutions, learn from mistakes, and keep moving forward. This is the cycle of development: individual self-interest fuels innovations that make the world more technological and connected.
Nature and Bitcoin: The DNA Parallel
To understand this mechanism, let’s look to nature. Consider the cells in a living organism. Each cell operates independently, following the instructions encoded in its DNA—a code that dictates its actions. The cell doesn’t “know” about the entire body, nor does it care. It simply strives for its own survival, performing its functions. But when billions of cells work together, following this code, they create something greater—a living organism.
Bitcoin is like the DNA of a decentralized system. Each miner is like a cell, following the “instructions” of the protocol to survive (profit). They don’t think about the entire network, only their own reward. But when all miners act together, they create something bigger—a global, secure, and resilient financial system. This is the beauty of decentralization: everyone acts for themselves, but the result is collective.
Selfishness and Humanity
Humans are no different from cells. Each of us wants to thrive—to have security, comfort, and success. But in pursuing these goals, we contribute to society. A teacher educates because they want to earn a living, but they shape future generations. An engineer builds a bridge because it’s their job, but it facilitates transportation for millions. Even in our personal lives, when we care for our families, we strengthen the social bonds that make society stronger.
Of course, there are exceptions—people who act solely for personal gain without regard for consequences. But even these outliers don’t change the bigger picture. Selfishness, when channeled correctly, is a driver of progress. Bitcoin is proof of this—a technology that turns personal interest into global innovation.
Bitcoin is more than just a cryptocurrency; it’s a mirror of human nature and the way the world works. Its design harnesses selfishness to create something sustainable and valuable. Just like cells in a body or people in society, Bitcoin miners work for themselves but contribute to something greater. It’s a reminder that even in our pursuit of personal gain, we can make the world a better place—as long as we follow the right “code.”
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@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365
2025-04-15 11:03:15Prelude
I wrote this post differently than any of my others. It started with a discussion with AI on an OPSec-inspired review of separation of powers, and evolved into quite an exciting debate! I asked Grok to write up a summary in my overall writing style, which it got pretty well. I've decided to post it exactly as-is. Ultimately, I think there are two solid ideas driving my stance here:
- Perfect is the enemy of the good
- Failure is the crucible of success
Beyond that, just some hard-core belief in freedom, separation of powers, and operating from self-interest.
Intro
Alright, buckle up. I’ve been chewing on this idea for a while, and it’s time to spit it out. Let’s look at the U.S. government like I’d look at a codebase under a cybersecurity audit—OPSEC style, no fluff. Forget the endless debates about what politicians should do. That’s noise. I want to talk about what they can do, the raw powers baked into the system, and why we should stop pretending those powers are sacred. If there’s a hole, either patch it or exploit it. No half-measures. And yeah, I’m okay if the whole thing crashes a bit—failure’s a feature, not a bug.
The Filibuster: A Security Rule with No Teeth
You ever see a firewall rule that’s more theater than protection? That’s the Senate filibuster. Everyone acts like it’s this untouchable guardian of democracy, but here’s the deal: a simple majority can torch it any day. It’s not a law; it’s a Senate preference, like choosing tabs over spaces. When people call killing it the “nuclear option,” I roll my eyes. Nuclear? It’s a button labeled “press me.” If a party wants it gone, they’ll do it. So why the dance?
I say stop playing games. Get rid of the filibuster. If you’re one of those folks who thinks it’s the only thing saving us from tyranny, fine—push for a constitutional amendment to lock it in. That’s a real patch, not a Post-it note. Until then, it’s just a vulnerability begging to be exploited. Every time a party threatens to nuke it, they’re admitting it’s not essential. So let’s stop pretending and move on.
Supreme Court Packing: Because Nine’s Just a Number
Here’s another fun one: the Supreme Court. Nine justices, right? Sounds official. Except it’s not. The Constitution doesn’t say nine—it’s silent on the number. Congress could pass a law tomorrow to make it 15, 20, or 42 (hitchhiker’s reference, anyone?). Packing the court is always on the table, and both sides know it. It’s like a root exploit just sitting there, waiting for someone to log in.
So why not call the bluff? If you’re in power—say, Trump’s back in the game—say, “I’m packing the court unless we amend the Constitution to fix it at nine.” Force the issue. No more shadowboxing. And honestly? The court’s got way too much power anyway. It’s not supposed to be a super-legislature, but here we are, with justices’ ideologies driving the bus. That’s a bug, not a feature. If the court weren’t such a kingmaker, packing it wouldn’t even matter. Maybe we should be talking about clipping its wings instead of just its size.
The Executive Should Go Full Klingon
Let’s talk presidents. I’m not saying they should wear Klingon armor and start shouting “Qapla’!”—though, let’s be real, that’d be awesome. I’m saying the executive should use every scrap of power the Constitution hands them. Enforce the laws you agree with, sideline the ones you don’t. If Congress doesn’t like it, they’ve got tools: pass new laws, override vetoes, or—here’s the big one—cut the budget. That’s not chaos; that’s the system working as designed.
Right now, the real problem isn’t the president overreaching; it’s the bureaucracy. It’s like a daemon running in the background, eating CPU and ignoring the user. The president’s supposed to be the one steering, but the administrative state’s got its own agenda. Let the executive flex, push the limits, and force Congress to check it. Norms? Pfft. The Constitution’s the spec sheet—stick to it.
Let the System Crash
Here’s where I get a little spicy: I’m totally fine if the government grinds to a halt. Deadlock isn’t a disaster; it’s a feature. If the branches can’t agree, let the president veto, let Congress starve the budget, let enforcement stall. Don’t tell me about “essential services.” Nothing’s so critical it can’t take a breather. Shutdowns force everyone to the table—debate, compromise, or expose who’s dropping the ball. If the public loses trust? Good. They’ll vote out the clowns or live with the circus they elected.
Think of it like a server crash. Sometimes you need a hard reboot to clear the cruft. If voters keep picking the same bad admins, well, the country gets what it deserves. Failure’s the best teacher—way better than limping along on autopilot.
States Are the Real MVPs
If the feds fumble, states step up. Right now, states act like junior devs waiting for the lead engineer to sign off. Why? Federal money. It’s a leash, and it’s tight. Cut that cash, and states will remember they’re autonomous. Some will shine, others will tank—looking at you, California. And I’m okay with that. Let people flee to better-run states. No bailouts, no excuses. States are like competing startups: the good ones thrive, the bad ones pivot or die.
Could it get uneven? Sure. Some states might turn into sci-fi utopias while others look like a post-apocalyptic vidya game. That’s the point—competition sorts it out. Citizens can move, markets adjust, and failure’s a signal to fix your act.
Chaos Isn’t the Enemy
Yeah, this sounds messy. States ignoring federal law, external threats poking at our seams, maybe even a constitutional crisis. I’m not scared. The Supreme Court’s there to referee interstate fights, and Congress sets the rules for state-to-state play. But if it all falls apart? Still cool. States can sort it without a babysitter—it’ll be ugly, but freedom’s worth it. External enemies? They’ll either unify us or break us. If we can’t rally, we don’t deserve the win.
Centralizing power to avoid this is like rewriting your app in a single thread to prevent race conditions—sure, it’s simpler, but you’re begging for a deadlock. Decentralized chaos lets states experiment, lets people escape, lets markets breathe. States competing to cut regulations to attract businesses? That’s a race to the bottom for red tape, but a race to the top for innovation—workers might gripe, but they’ll push back, and the tension’s healthy. Bring it—let the cage match play out. The Constitution’s checks are enough if we stop coddling the system.
Why This Matters
I’m not pitching a utopia. I’m pitching a stress test. The U.S. isn’t a fragile porcelain doll; it’s a rugged piece of hardware built to take some hits. Let it fail a little—filibuster, court, feds, whatever. Patch the holes with amendments if you want, or lean into the grind. Either way, stop fearing the crash. It’s how we debug the republic.
So, what’s your take? Ready to let the system rumble, or got a better way to secure the code? Hit me up—I’m all ears.
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@ c4b5369a:b812dbd6
2025-04-15 07:26:16Offline transactions with Cashu
Over the past few weeks, I've been busy implementing offline capabilities into nutstash. I think this is one of the key value propositions of ecash, beinga a bearer instrument that can be used without internet access.
It does however come with limitations, which can lead to a bit of confusion. I hope this article will clear some of these questions up for you!
What is ecash/Cashu?
Ecash is the first cryptocurrency ever invented. It was created by David Chaum in 1983. It uses a blind signature scheme, which allows users to prove ownership of a token without revealing a link to its origin. These tokens are what we call ecash. They are bearer instruments, meaning that anyone who possesses a copy of them, is considered the owner.
Cashu is an implementation of ecash, built to tightly interact with Bitcoin, more specifically the Bitcoin lightning network. In the Cashu ecosystem,
Mints
are the gateway to the lightning network. They provide the infrastructure to access the lightning network, pay invoices and receive payments. Instead of relying on a traditional ledger scheme like other custodians do, the mint issues ecash tokens, to represent the value held by the users.How do normal Cashu transactions work?
A Cashu transaction happens when the sender gives a copy of his ecash token to the receiver. This can happen by any means imaginable. You could send the token through email, messenger, or even by pidgeon. One of the common ways to transfer ecash is via QR code.
The transaction is however not finalized just yet! In order to make sure the sender cannot double-spend their copy of the token, the receiver must do what we call a
swap
. A swap is essentially exchanging an ecash token for a new one at the mint, invalidating the old token in the process. This ensures that the sender can no longer use the same token to spend elsewhere, and the value has been transferred to the receiver.What about offline transactions?
Sending offline
Sending offline is very simple. The ecash tokens are stored on your device. Thus, no internet connection is required to access them. You can litteraly just take them, and give them to someone. The most convenient way is usually through a local transmission protocol, like NFC, QR code, Bluetooth, etc.
The one thing to consider when sending offline is that ecash tokens come in form of "coins" or "notes". The technical term we use in Cashu is
Proof
. It "proofs" to the mint that you own a certain amount of value. Since these proofs have a fixed value attached to them, much like UTXOs in Bitcoin do, you would need proofs with a value that matches what you want to send. You can mix and match multiple proofs together to create a token that matches the amount you want to send. But, if you don't have proofs that match the amount, you would need to go online and swap for the needed proofs at the mint.Another limitation is, that you cannot create custom proofs offline. For example, if you would want to lock the ecash to a certain pubkey, or add a timelock to the proof, you would need to go online and create a new custom proof at the mint.
Receiving offline
You might think: well, if I trust the sender, I don't need to be swapping the token right away!
You're absolutely correct. If you trust the sender, you can simply accept their ecash token without needing to swap it immediately.
This is already really useful, since it gives you a way to receive a payment from a friend or close aquaintance without having to worry about connectivity. It's almost just like physical cash!
It does however not work if the sender is untrusted. We have to use a different scheme to be able to receive payments from someone we don't trust.
Receiving offline from an untrusted sender
To be able to receive payments from an untrusted sender, we need the sender to create a custom proof for us. As we've seen before, this requires the sender to go online.
The sender needs to create a token that has the following properties, so that the receciver can verify it offline:
- It must be locked to ONLY the receiver's public key
- It must include an
offline signature proof
(DLEQ proof) - If it contains a timelock & refund clause, it must be set to a time in the future that is acceptable for the receiver
- It cannot contain duplicate proofs (double-spend)
- It cannot contain proofs that the receiver has already received before (double-spend)
If all of these conditions are met, then the receiver can verify the proof offline and accept the payment. This allows us to receive payments from anyone, even if we don't trust them.
At first glance, this scheme seems kinda useless. It requires the sender to go online, which defeats the purpose of having an offline payment system.
I beleive there are a couple of ways this scheme might be useful nonetheless:
-
Offline vending machines: Imagine you have an offline vending machine that accepts payments from anyone. The vending machine could use this scheme to verify payments without needing to go online itself. We can assume that the sender is able to go online and create a valid token, but the receiver doesn't need to be online to verify it.
-
Offline marketplaces: Imagine you have an offline marketplace where buyers and sellers can trade goods and services. Before going to the marketplace the sender already knows where he will be spending the money. The sender could create a valid token before going to the marketplace, using the merchants public key as a lock, and adding a refund clause to redeem any unspent ecash after it expires. In this case, neither the sender nor the receiver needs to go online to complete the transaction.
How to use this
Pretty much all cashu wallets allow you to send tokens offline. This is because all that the wallet needs to do is to look if it can create the desired amount from the proofs stored locally. If yes, it will automatically create the token offline.
Receiving offline tokens is currently only supported by nutstash (experimental).
To create an offline receivable token, the sender needs to lock it to the receiver's public key. Currently there is no refund clause! So be careful that you don't get accidentally locked out of your funds!
The receiver can then inspect the token and decide if it is safe to accept without a swap. If all checks are green, they can accept the token offline without trusting the sender.
The receiver will see the unswapped tokens on the wallet homescreen. They will need to manually swap them later when they are online again.
Later when the receiver is online again, they can swap the token for a fresh one.
Summary
We learned that offline transactions are possible with ecash, but there are some limitations. It either requires trusting the sender, or relying on either the sender or receiver to be online to verify the tokens, or create tokens that can be verified offline by the receiver.
I hope this short article was helpful in understanding how ecash works and its potential for offline transactions.
Cheers,
Gandlaf
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@ 266815e0:6cd408a5
2025-04-15 06:58:14Its been a little over a year since NIP-90 was written and merged into the nips repo and its been a communication mess.
Every DVM implementation expects the inputs in slightly different formats, returns the results in mostly the same format and there are very few DVM actually running.
NIP-90 is overloaded
Why does a request for text translation and creating bitcoin OP_RETURNs share the same input
i
tag? and why is there anoutput
tag on requests when only one of them will return an output?Each DVM request kind is for requesting completely different types of compute with diffrent input and output requirements, but they are all using the same spec that has 4 different types of inputs (
text
,url
,event
,job
) and an undefined number ofoutput
types.Let me show a few random DVM requests and responses I found on
wss://relay.damus.io
to demonstrate what I mean:This is a request to translate an event to English
json { "kind": 5002, "content": "", "tags": [ // NIP-90 says there can be multiple inputs, so how would a DVM handle translatting multiple events at once? [ "i", "<event-id>", "event" ], [ "param", "language", "en" ], // What other type of output would text translations be? image/jpeg? [ "output", "text/plain" ], // Do we really need to define relays? cant the DVM respond on the relays it saw the request on? [ "relays", "wss://relay.unknown.cloud/", "wss://nos.lol/" ] ] }
This is a request to generate text using an LLM model
json { "kind": 5050, // Why is the content empty? wouldn't it be better to have the prompt in the content? "content": "", "tags": [ // Why use an indexable tag? are we ever going to lookup prompts? // Also the type "prompt" isn't in NIP-90, this should probably be "text" [ "i", "What is the capital of France?", "prompt" ], [ "p", "c4878054cff877f694f5abecf18c7450f4b6fdf59e3e9cb3e6505a93c4577db2" ], [ "relays", "wss://relay.primal.net" ] ] }
This is a request for content recommendation
json { "kind": 5300, "content": "", "tags": [ // Its fine ignoring this param, but what if the client actually needs exactly 200 "results" [ "param", "max_results", "200" ], // The spec never mentions requesting content for other users. // If a DVM didn't understand this and responded to this request it would provide bad data [ "param", "user", "b22b06b051fd5232966a9344a634d956c3dc33a7f5ecdcad9ed11ddc4120a7f2" ], [ "relays", "wss://relay.primal.net", ], [ "p", "ceb7e7d688e8a704794d5662acb6f18c2455df7481833dd6c384b65252455a95" ] ] }
This is a request to create a OP_RETURN message on bitcoin
json { "kind": 5901, // Again why is the content empty when we are sending human readable text? "content": "", "tags": [ // and again, using an indexable tag on an input that will never need to be looked up ["i", "09/01/24 SEC Chairman on the brink of second ETF approval", "text"] ] }
My point isn't that these event schema's aren't understandable but why are they using the same schema? each use-case is different but are they all required to use the same
i
tag format as input and could support all 4 types of inputs.Lack of libraries
With all these different types of inputs, params, and outputs its verify difficult if not impossible to build libraries for DVMs
If a simple text translation request can have an
event
ortext
as inputs, apayment-required
status at any point in the flow, partial results, or responses from 10+ DVMs whats the best way to build a translation library for other nostr clients to use?And how do I build a DVM framework for the server side that can handle multiple inputs of all four types (
url
,text
,event
,job
) and clients are sending all the requests in slightly differently.Supporting payments is impossible
The way NIP-90 is written there isn't much details about payments. only a
payment-required
status and a genericamount
tagBut the way things are now every DVM is implementing payments differently. some send a bolt11 invoice, some expect the client to NIP-57 zap the request event (or maybe the status event), and some even ask for a subscription. and we haven't even started implementing NIP-61 nut zaps or cashu A few are even formatting the
amount
number wrong or denominating it in sats and not mili-satsBuilding a client or a library that can understand and handle all of these payment methods is very difficult. for the DVM server side its worse. A DVM server presumably needs to support all 4+ types of payments if they want to get the most sats for their services and support the most clients.
All of this is made even more complicated by the fact that a DVM can ask for payment at any point during the job process. this makes sense for some types of compute, but for others like translations or user recommendation / search it just makes things even more complicated.
For example, If a client wanted to implement a timeline page that showed the notes of all the pubkeys on a recommended list. what would they do when the selected DVM asks for payment at the start of the job? or at the end? or worse, only provides half the pubkeys and asks for payment for the other half. building a UI that could handle even just two of these possibilities is complicated.
NIP-89 is being abused
NIP-89 is "Recommended Application Handlers" and the way its describe in the nips repo is
a way to discover applications that can handle unknown event-kinds
Not "a way to discover everything"
If I wanted to build an application discovery app to show all the apps that your contacts use and let you discover new apps then it would have to filter out ALL the DVM advertisement events. and that's not just for making requests from relays
If the app shows the user their list of "recommended applications" then it either has to understand that everything in the 5xxx kind range is a DVM and to show that is its own category or show a bunch of unknown "favorites" in the list which might be confusing for the user.
In conclusion
My point in writing this article isn't that the DVMs implementations so far don't work, but that they will never work well because the spec is too broad. even with only a few DVMs running we have already lost interoperability.
I don't want to be completely negative though because some things have worked. the "DVM feeds" work, although they are limited to a single page of results. text / event translations also work well and kind
5970
Event PoW delegation could be cool. but if we want interoperability, we are going to need to change a few things with NIP-90I don't think we can (or should) abandon NIP-90 entirely but it would be good to break it up into small NIPs or specs. break each "kind" of DVM request out into its own spec with its own definitions for expected inputs, outputs and flow.
Then if we have simple, clean definitions for each kind of compute we want to distribute. we might actually see markets and services being built and used.
-
@ 0fa80bd3:ea7325de
2025-04-09 21:19:39DAOs promised decentralization. They offered a system where every member could influence a project's direction, where money and power were transparently distributed, and decisions were made through voting. All of it recorded immutably on the blockchain, free from middlemen.
But something didn’t work out. In practice, most DAOs haven’t evolved into living, self-organizing organisms. They became something else: clubs where participation is unevenly distributed. Leaders remained - only now without formal titles. They hold influence through control over communications, task framing, and community dynamics. Centralization still exists, just wrapped in a new package.
But there's a second, less obvious problem. Crowds can’t create strategy. In DAOs, people vote for what "feels right to the majority." But strategy isn’t about what feels good - it’s about what’s necessary. Difficult, unpopular, yet forward-looking decisions often fail when put to a vote. A founder’s vision is a risk. But in healthy teams, it’s that risk that drives progress. In DAOs, risk is almost always diluted until it becomes something safe and vague.
Instead of empowering leaders, DAOs often neutralize them. This is why many DAOs resemble consensus machines. Everyone talks, debates, and participates, but very little actually gets done. One person says, “Let’s jump,” and five others respond, “Let’s discuss that first.” This dynamic might work for open forums, but not for action.
Decentralization works when there’s trust and delegation, not just voting. Until DAOs develop effective systems for assigning roles, taking ownership, and acting with flexibility, they will keep losing ground to old-fashioned startups led by charismatic founders with a clear vision.
We’ve seen this in many real-world cases. Take MakerDAO, one of the most mature and technically sophisticated DAOs. Its governance token (MKR) holders vote on everything from interest rates to protocol upgrades. While this has allowed for transparency and community involvement, the process is often slow and bureaucratic. Complex proposals stall. Strategic pivots become hard to implement. And in 2023, a controversial proposal to allocate billions to real-world assets passed only narrowly, after months of infighting - highlighting how vision and execution can get stuck in the mud of distributed governance.
On the other hand, Uniswap DAO, responsible for the largest decentralized exchange, raised governance participation only after launching a delegation system where token holders could choose trusted representatives. Still, much of the activity is limited to a small group of active contributors. The vast majority of token holders remain passive. This raises the question: is it really community-led, or just a formalized power structure with lower transparency?
Then there’s ConstitutionDAO, an experiment that went viral. It raised over $40 million in days to try and buy a copy of the U.S. Constitution. But despite the hype, the DAO failed to win the auction. Afterwards, it struggled with refund logistics, communication breakdowns, and confusion over governance. It was a perfect example of collective enthusiasm without infrastructure or planning - proof that a DAO can raise capital fast but still lack cohesion.
Not all efforts have failed. Projects like Gitcoin DAO have made progress by incentivizing small, individual contributions. Their quadratic funding mechanism rewards projects based on the number of contributors, not just the size of donations, helping to elevate grassroots initiatives. But even here, long-term strategy often falls back on a core group of organizers rather than broad community consensus.
The pattern is clear: when the stakes are low or the tasks are modular, DAOs can coordinate well. But when bold moves are needed—when someone has to take responsibility and act under uncertainty DAOs often freeze. In the name of consensus, they lose momentum.
That’s why the organization of the future can’t rely purely on decentralization. It must encourage individual initiative and the ability to take calculated risks. People need to see their contribution not just as a vote, but as a role with clear actions and expected outcomes. When the situation demands, they should be empowered to act first and present the results to the community afterwards allowing for both autonomy and accountability. That’s not a flaw in the system. It’s how real progress happens.
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@ c066aac5:6a41a034
2025-04-05 16:58:58I’m drawn to extremities in art. The louder, the bolder, the more outrageous, the better. Bold art takes me out of the mundane into a whole new world where anything and everything is possible. Having grown up in the safety of the suburban midwest, I was a bit of a rebellious soul in search of the satiation that only came from the consumption of the outrageous. My inclination to find bold art draws me to NOSTR, because I believe NOSTR can be the place where the next generation of artistic pioneers go to express themselves. I also believe that as much as we are able, were should invite them to come create here.
My Background: A Small Side Story
My father was a professional gamer in the 80s, back when there was no money or glory in the avocation. He did get a bit of spotlight though after the fact: in the mid 2000’s there were a few parties making documentaries about that era of gaming as well as current arcade events (namely 2007’sChasing GhostsandThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters). As a result of these documentaries, there was a revival in the arcade gaming scene. My family attended events related to the documentaries or arcade gaming and I became exposed to a lot of things I wouldn’t have been able to find. The producer ofThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters had previously made a documentary calledNew York Dollwhich was centered around the life of bassist Arthur Kane. My 12 year old mind was blown: The New York Dolls were a glam-punk sensation dressed in drag. The music was from another planet. Johnny Thunders’ guitar playing was like Chuck Berry with more distortion and less filter. Later on I got to meet the Galaga record holder at the time, Phil Day, in Ottumwa Iowa. Phil is an Australian man of high intellect and good taste. He exposed me to great creators such as Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, Shakespeare, Lou Reed, artists who created things that I had previously found inconceivable.
I believe this time period informed my current tastes and interests, but regrettably I think it also put coals on the fire of rebellion within. I stopped taking my parents and siblings seriously, the Christian faith of my family (which I now hold dearly to) seemed like a mundane sham, and I felt I couldn’t fit in with most people because of my avant-garde tastes. So I write this with the caveat that there should be a way to encourage these tastes in children without letting them walk down the wrong path. There is nothing inherently wrong with bold art, but I’d advise parents to carefully find ways to cultivate their children’s tastes without completely shutting them down and pushing them away as a result. My parents were very loving and patient during this time; I thank God for that.
With that out of the way, lets dive in to some bold artists:
Nicolas Cage: Actor
There is an excellent video by Wisecrack on Nicolas Cage that explains him better than I will, which I will linkhere. Nicolas Cage rejects the idea that good acting is tied to mere realism; all of his larger than life acting decisions are deliberate choices. When that clicked for me, I immediately realized the man is a genius. He borrows from Kabuki and German Expressionism, art forms that rely on exaggeration to get the message across. He has even created his own acting style, which he calls Nouveau Shamanic. He augments his imagination to go from acting to being. Rather than using the old hat of method acting, he transports himself to a new world mentally. The projects he chooses to partake in are based on his own interests or what he considers would be a challenge (making a bad script good for example). Thus it doesn’t matter how the end result comes out; he has already achieved his goal as an artist. Because of this and because certain directors don’t know how to use his talents, he has a noticeable amount of duds in his filmography. Dig around the duds, you’ll find some pure gold. I’d personally recommend the filmsPig, Joe, Renfield, and his Christmas film The Family Man.
Nick Cave: Songwriter
What a wild career this man has had! From the apocalyptic mayhem of his band The Birthday Party to the pensive atmosphere of his albumGhosteen, it seems like Nick Cave has tried everything. I think his secret sauce is that he’s always working. He maintains an excellent newsletter calledThe Red Hand Files, he has written screenplays such asLawless, he has written books, he has made great film scores such asThe Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, the man is religiously prolific. I believe that one of the reasons he is prolific is that he’s not afraid to experiment. If he has an idea, he follows it through to completion. From the albumMurder Ballads(which is comprised of what the title suggests) to his rejected sequel toGladiator(Gladiator: Christ Killer), he doesn’t seem to be afraid to take anything on. This has led to some over the top works as well as some deeply personal works. Albums likeSkeleton TreeandGhosteenwere journeys through the grief of his son’s death. The Boatman’s Callis arguably a better break-up album than anything Taylor Swift has put out. He’s not afraid to be outrageous, he’s not afraid to offend, but most importantly he’s not afraid to be himself. Works I’d recommend include The Birthday Party’sLive 1981-82, Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds’The Boatman’s Call, and the filmLawless.
Jim Jarmusch: Director
I consider Jim’s films to be bold almost in an ironic sense: his works are bold in that they are, for the most part, anti-sensational. He has a rule that if his screenplays are criticized for a lack of action, he makes them even less eventful. Even with sensational settings his films feel very close to reality, and they demonstrate the beauty of everyday life. That's what is bold about his art to me: making the sensational grounded in reality while making everyday reality all the more special. Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samurai is about a modern-day African-American hitman who strictly follows the rules of the ancient Samurai, yet one can resonate with the humanity of a seemingly absurd character. Only Lovers Left Aliveis a vampire love story, but in the middle of a vampire romance one can see their their own relationships in a new deeply human light. Jim’s work reminds me that art reflects life, and that there is sacred beauty in seemingly mundane everyday life. I personally recommend his filmsPaterson,Down by Law, andCoffee and Cigarettes.
NOSTR: We Need Bold Art
NOSTR is in my opinion a path to a better future. In a world creeping slowly towards everything apps, I hope that the protocol where the individual owns their data wins over everything else. I love freedom and sovereignty. If NOSTR is going to win the race of everything apps, we need more than Bitcoin content. We need more than shirtless bros paying for bananas in foreign countries and exercising with girls who have seductive accents. Common people cannot see themselves in such a world. NOSTR needs to catch the attention of everyday people. I don’t believe that this can be accomplished merely by introducing more broadly relevant content; people are searching for content that speaks to them. I believe that NOSTR can and should attract artists of all kinds because NOSTR is one of the few places on the internet where artists can express themselves fearlessly. Getting zaps from NOSTR’s value-for-value ecosystem has far less friction than crowdfunding a creative project or pitching investors that will irreversibly modify an artist’s vision. Having a place where one can post their works without fear of censorship should be extremely enticing. Having a place where one can connect with fellow humans directly as opposed to a sea of bots should seem like the obvious solution. If NOSTR can become a safe haven for artists to express themselves and spread their work, I believe that everyday people will follow. The banker whose stressful job weighs on them will suddenly find joy with an original meme made by a great visual comedian. The programmer for a healthcare company who is drowning in hopeless mundanity could suddenly find a new lust for life by hearing the song of a musician who isn’t afraid to crowdfund their their next project by putting their lighting address on the streets of the internet. The excel guru who loves independent film may find that NOSTR is the best way to support non corporate movies. My closing statement: continue to encourage the artists in your life as I’m sure you have been, but while you’re at it give them the purple pill. You may very well be a part of building a better future.
-
@ f240be2b:00c761ba
2025-05-25 10:32:12Wirtschaftswunder werden oft als mysteriöse, unvorhersehbare Phänomene dargestellt – als wären sie glückliche Zufälle oder das Ergebnis genialer Planungen. Bei näherer Betrachtung offenbart sich jedoch ein grundlegendes Muster: Diese vermeintlichen "Wunder" sind keine übernatürlichen Ereignisse, sondern das natürliche Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Die Erfolgsgeschichten verschiedener Länder bestätigen diese These und zeigen, dass Wohlstand entsteht, wenn Menschen die Freiheit haben, zu handeln, zu produzieren und zu innovieren.
Das deutsche Wirtschaftswunder
Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg lag Deutschland in Trümmern. Die Industrieproduktion war auf ein Viertel des Vorkriegsniveaus gesunken, und Millionen Menschen lebten in Armut. Doch innerhalb weniger Jahre erlebte Westdeutschland einen beispiellosen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, der als "Wirtschaftswunder" in die Geschichte einging.
Der Wandel begann mit Ludwig Erhards mutiger Währungsreform und Preisfreigabe im Jahr 1948. Erhard, damals Direktor der Wirtschaftsverwaltung, schaffte Preiskontrollen ab und führte die Deutsche Mark ein. Diese Maßnahmen wurden von Besatzungsmächten und deutschen Sozialisten skeptisch betrachtet und waren zunächst unpopulär. Doch die Ergebnisse sprachen für sich: Über Nacht füllten sich die Ladenregale wieder, und die Schwarzmärkte verschwanden.
Das Kernprinzip war einfach: Erhard gab den Menschen ihre wirtschaftliche Freiheit zurück. Er schuf einen stabilen Rechtsrahmen, reduzierte staatliche Eingriffe und förderte den freien Wettbewerb. Die Sozialisten bekämpften diese Entwicklung von Anfang an, deuteten diese jedoch im Nachhinein als “soziale Marktwirtschaft” um, diese Lüge verbreiten sie noch heute sehr erfolgreich.
Die freie Marktwirtschaft erlaubte es den Deutschen, ihre unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten zu entfalten und ihre zerstörte Wirtschaft wieder aufzubauen.\ Das Ergebnis: Zwischen 1950 und 1960 wuchs das westdeutsche BIP um mehr als 8% jährlich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sank von 11% auf unter 1%, und Deutschland wurde zu einer der führenden Exportnationen der Welt. Was als "Wunder" bezeichnet wurde, war tatsächlich die natürliche Konsequenz wiederhergestellter wirtschaftlicher Freiheit.
Chiles wirtschaftliche Transformation
Chile bietet ein weiteres eindrucksvolles Beispiel. In den frühen 1970er Jahren litt das Land unter einer Hyperinflation von 700%, einem schrumpfenden BIP und zunehmender Armut. Die Transformation begann in den späten 1970er Jahren mit tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen.
Die chilenische Regierung privatisierte Staatsunternehmen, öffnete Märkte für internationalen Handel, schuf ein stabiles Finanzsystem und führte ein innovatives Rentensystem ein. Während andere lateinamerikanische Länder mit protektionistischen Maßnahmen experimentierten, entschied sich Chile für wirtschaftliche Freiheit.
Die Ergebnisse waren beeindruckend: Zwischen 1975 und 2000 verdreifachte sich Chiles Pro-Kopf-Einkommen. Die Armutsquote sank von 45% auf unter 10%. Heute hat Chile das höchste Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Südamerika und eine der stabilsten Wirtschaften der Region.
Mit einer gewissen Melancholie müssen wir beobachten, wie die hart erkämpften Errungenschaften Chiles allmählich in den Schatten der Vergänglichkeit gleiten. Was einst als Leuchtturm wirtschaftlicher Transformation strahlte, wird nun von den Nebeln der kollektiven Amnesie umhüllt. In dieser Dämmerung der Erinnerung finden interventionistische Strömungen erneut fruchtbaren Boden.
Dieses Phänomen ist nicht auf Chile beschränkt. Auch in Deutschland verblasst die Erinnerung an die transformative Kraft der freien Marktwirtschaft. Die Geschichte wird umgedichtet, in der wirtschaftliche Freiheit als unbarmherziger Kapitalismus karikiert wird, während staatliche Intervention als einziger Weg zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit glorifiziert wird.
Chinas große Öffnung
Im Reich der Mitte vollzog sich die vielleicht dramatischste wirtschaftliche Metamorphose unserer Zeit. Nach Jahrzehnten der Isolation und planwirtschaftlicher Starrheit öffnete China unter Deng Xiaoping vorsichtig die Tore zur wirtschaftlichen Freiheit.
Die Transformation begann in den Reisfeldern, wo Bauern erstmals seit Generationen über ihre eigene Ernte bestimmen durften. Sie setzte sich fort in den pulsierenden Sonderwirtschaftszonen, wo unternehmerische Energie auf globale Märkte traf.
Das Ergebnis war atemberaubend: Fast vier Jahrzehnte mit durchschnittlich 10 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum jährlich – eine beispiellose Leistung in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Mehr als 800 Millionen Menschen überwanden die Armut und fanden den Weg in die globale Mittelschicht. Selbst die partielle Einführung wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten entfesselte eine Produktivität, die die Welt veränderte.
Die zeitlose Lektion
Das Geheimnis wirtschaftlicher Erneuerung liegt nicht in komplexen Theorien oder staatlichen Eingriffen, sondern in der einfachen Weisheit, Menschen die Freiheit zu geben, ihre Träume zu verwirklichen. Wenn wir von "Wirtschaftswundern" sprechen, verkennen wir die wahre Natur dieser Transformationen.
Sie sind keine mysteriösen Anomalien, sondern vielmehr Bestätigungen eines zeitlosen Prinzips: In der fruchtbaren Erde wirtschaftlicher Freiheit blüht der menschliche Erfindungsgeist. Diese Erkenntnis ist keine ideologische Position, sondern eine durch die Geschichte vielfach bestätigte Wahrheit.
Die Lektion dieser Erfolgsgeschichten ist sowohl schlicht als auch tiefgründig: Der Weg zu Wohlstand und menschlicher Entfaltung führt über die Anerkennung und den Schutz wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten. In dieser Erkenntnis liegt vielleicht das wahre Wunder – die beständige Kraft einer einfachen Idee, die immer wieder Leben und Hoffnung in die dunkelsten wirtschaftlichen Landschaften bringt.
Der aufsteigende Stern des Südens
Jenseits der Andenkette, wo Argentinien und Chile ihre lange Grenze teilen, entfaltet sich eine neue Erfolgsgeschichte. Mit mutigen Reformen und einer Rückbesinnung auf wirtschaftliche Freiheit erwacht dieses Land mit viel Potenzial aus seinem langen Schlummer. Was wir beobachten, ist nichts weniger als die Geburt eines neuen südamerikanischen Wirtschaftswunders – geboren aus der Erkenntnis, dass Wohlstand nicht verteilt, sondern erschaffen wird.
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@ 17538dc2:71ed77c4
2025-04-02 16:04:59The MacOS security update summary is a reminder that laptops and desktops are incredibly compromised.
macOS Sequoia 15.4
Released March 31, 2025
Accessibility Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: A logging issue was addressed with improved data redaction.
CVE-2025-24202: Zhongcheng Li from IES Red Team of ByteDance
AccountPolicy Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to gain root privileges
Description: This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code.
CVE-2025-24234: an anonymous researcher
AirDrop Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to read arbitrary file metadata
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24097: Ron Masas of BREAKPOINT.SH
App Store Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access private information
Description: This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code.
CVE-2025-24276: an anonymous researcher
AppleMobileFileIntegrity Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24272: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
AppleMobileFileIntegrity Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: A downgrade issue was addressed with additional code-signing restrictions.
CVE-2025-24239: Wojciech Regula of SecuRing (wojciechregula.blog)
AppleMobileFileIntegrity Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to read or write to protected files
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24233: Claudio Bozzato and Francesco Benvenuto of Cisco Talos.
AppleMobileFileIntegrity Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access user-sensitive data
Description: A privacy issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code.
CVE-2025-30443: Bohdan Stasiuk (@bohdan_stasiuk)
Audio Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing a maliciously crafted font may result in the disclosure of process memory
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24244: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
Audio Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing a maliciously crafted file may lead to arbitrary code execution
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24243: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
Authentication Services Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Password autofill may fill in passwords after failing authentication
Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
CVE-2025-30430: Dominik Rath
Authentication Services Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious website may be able to claim WebAuthn credentials from another website that shares a registrable suffix
Description: The issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24180: Martin Kreichgauer of Google Chrome
Authentication Services Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access a user's saved passwords
Description: This issue was addressed by adding a delay between verification code attempts.
CVE-2025-24245: Ian Mckay (@iann0036)
Automator Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: A permissions issue was addressed by removing vulnerable code and adding additional checks.
CVE-2025-30460: an anonymous researcher
BiometricKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination
Description: A buffer overflow was addressed with improved bounds checking.
CVE-2025-24237: Yutong Xiu
Calendar Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to break out of its sandbox
Description: A path handling issue was addressed with improved validation.
CVE-2025-30429: Denis Tokarev (@illusionofcha0s)
Calendar Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to break out of its sandbox
Description: This issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24212: Denis Tokarev (@illusionofcha0s)
CloudKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access private information
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24215: Kirin (@Pwnrin)
CoreAudio Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Parsing a file may lead to an unexpected app termination
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24163: Google Threat Analysis Group
CoreAudio Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Playing a malicious audio file may lead to an unexpected app termination
Description: An out-of-bounds read issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24230: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
CoreMedia Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing a maliciously crafted video file may lead to unexpected app termination or corrupt process memory
Description: This issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24211: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
CoreMedia Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: An access issue was addressed with additional sandbox restrictions.
CVE-2025-24236: Csaba Fitzl (@theevilbit) and Nolan Astrein of Kandji
CoreMedia Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing a maliciously crafted video file may lead to unexpected app termination or corrupt process memory
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24190: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
CoreMedia Playback Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access private information
Description: A path handling issue was addressed with improved validation.
CVE-2025-30454: pattern-f (@pattern_F_)
CoreServices Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
CVE-2025-31191: Jonathan Bar Or (@yo_yo_yo_jbo) of Microsoft, and an anonymous researcher Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
CoreText Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing a maliciously crafted font may result in the disclosure of process memory
Description: An out-of-bounds read issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24182: Hossein Lotfi (@hosselot) of Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
Crash Reporter Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to gain root privileges
Description: A parsing issue in the handling of directory paths was addressed with improved path validation.
CVE-2025-24277: Csaba Fitzl (@theevilbit) of Kandji and Gergely Kalman (@gergely_kalman), and an anonymous researcher
curl Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An input validation issue was addressed
Description: This is a vulnerability in open source code and Apple Software is among the affected projects. The CVE-ID was assigned by a third party. Learn more about the issue and CVE-ID at cve.org.
CVE-2024-9681
Disk Images Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to break out of its sandbox
Description: A file access issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24255: an anonymous researcher
DiskArbitration Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to gain root privileges
Description: A parsing issue in the handling of directory paths was addressed with improved path validation.
CVE-2025-30456: Gergely Kalman (@gergely_kalman)
DiskArbitration Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to gain root privileges
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24267: an anonymous researcher
Dock Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access private information
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-30455: Mickey Jin (@patch1t), and an anonymous researcher
Dock Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: This issue was addressed by removing the vulnerable code.
CVE-2025-31187: Rodolphe BRUNETTI (@eisw0lf) of Lupus Nova
dyld Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Apps that appear to use App Sandbox may be able to launch without restrictions
Description: A library injection issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-30462: Pietro Francesco Tirenna, Davide Silvetti, Abdel Adim Oisfi of Shielder (shielder.com)
FaceTime Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved redaction of sensitive information.
CVE-2025-30451: Kirin (@Pwnrin) and luckyu (@uuulucky)
FeedbackLogger Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved data protection.
CVE-2025-24281: Rodolphe BRUNETTI (@eisw0lf)
Focus Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An attacker with physical access to a locked device may be able to view sensitive user information
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-30439: Andr.Ess
Focus Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: A logging issue was addressed with improved data redaction.
CVE-2025-24283: Kirin (@Pwnrin)
Foundation Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: An access issue was addressed with additional sandbox restrictions on the system pasteboards.
CVE-2025-30461: an anonymous researcher
Foundation Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: The issue was resolved by sanitizing logging
CVE-2025-30447: LFY@secsys from Fudan University
Foundation Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause a denial-of-service
Description: An uncontrolled format string issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24199: Manuel Fernandez (Stackhopper Security)
GPU Drivers Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination or corrupt kernel memory
Description: An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved bounds checking.
CVE-2025-30464: ABC Research s.r.o.
CVE-2025-24273: Wang Yu of Cyberserval
GPU Drivers Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to disclose kernel memory
Description: The issue was addressed with improved bounds checks.
CVE-2025-24256: Anonymous working with Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative, Murray Mike
Handoff Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: The issue was addressed with improved restriction of data container access.
CVE-2025-30463: mzzzz__
ImageIO Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Parsing an image may lead to disclosure of user information
Description: A logic error was addressed with improved error handling.
CVE-2025-24210: Anonymous working with Trend Micro Zero Day Initiative
Installer Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to check the existence of an arbitrary path on the file system
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional sandbox restrictions.
CVE-2025-24249: YingQi Shi(@Mas0nShi) of DBAppSecurity's WeBin lab and Minghao Lin (@Y1nKoc)
Installer Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A sandboxed app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: A logic issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24229: an anonymous researcher
IOGPUFamily Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination or write kernel memory
Description: An out-of-bounds write issue was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24257: Wang Yu of Cyberserval
IOMobileFrameBuffer Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to corrupt coprocessor memory
Description: The issue was addressed with improved bounds checks.
CVE-2025-30437: Ye Zhang (@VAR10CK) of Baidu Security
Kerberos Helper Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A remote attacker may be able to cause unexpected app termination or heap corruption
Description: A memory initialization issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24235: Dave G.
Kernel Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24204: Koh M. Nakagawa (@tsunek0h) of FFRI Security, Inc.
Kernel Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24203: Ian Beer of Google Project Zero
Kernel Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An attacker with user privileges may be able to read kernel memory
Description: A type confusion issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24196: Joseph Ravichandran (@0xjprx) of MIT CSAIL
LaunchServices Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious JAR file may bypass Gatekeeper checks
Description: This issue was addressed with improved handling of executable types.
CVE-2025-24148: Kenneth Chew
libarchive Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An input validation issue was addressed
Description: This is a vulnerability in open source code and Apple Software is among the affected projects. The CVE-ID was assigned by a third party. Learn more about the issue and CVE-ID at cve.org.
CVE-2024-48958
Libinfo Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A user may be able to elevate privileges
Description: An integer overflow was addressed with improved input validation.
CVE-2025-24195: Paweł Płatek (Trail of Bits)
libnetcore Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing maliciously crafted web content may result in the disclosure of process memory
Description: A logic issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24194: an anonymous researcher
libxml2 Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Parsing a file may lead to an unexpected app termination
Description: This is a vulnerability in open source code and Apple Software is among the affected projects. The CVE-ID was assigned by a third party. Learn more about the issue and CVE-ID at cve.org.
CVE-2025-27113
CVE-2024-56171
libxpc Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to break out of its sandbox
Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
CVE-2025-24178: an anonymous researcher
libxpc Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to delete files for which it does not have permission
Description: This issue was addressed with improved handling of symlinks.
CVE-2025-31182: Alex Radocea and Dave G. of Supernetworks, 风沐云烟(@binary_fmyy) and Minghao Lin(@Y1nKoc)
libxpc Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to gain elevated privileges
Description: A logic issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24238: an anonymous researcher
Mail Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: "Block All Remote Content" may not apply for all mail previews
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional sandbox restrictions.
CVE-2025-24172: an anonymous researcher
manpages Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved validation of symlinks.
CVE-2025-30450: Pwn2car
Maps Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to read sensitive location information
Description: A path handling issue was addressed with improved logic.
CVE-2025-30470: LFY@secsys from Fudan University
NetworkExtension Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to enumerate a user's installed apps
Description: This issue was addressed with additional entitlement checks.
CVE-2025-30426: Jimmy
Notes Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A sandboxed app may be able to access sensitive user data in system logs
Description: A privacy issue was addressed with improved private data redaction for log entries.
CVE-2025-24262: LFY@secsys from Fudan University
NSDocument Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to access arbitrary files
Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
CVE-2025-24232: an anonymous researcher
OpenSSH Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access user-sensitive data
Description: An injection issue was addressed with improved validation.
CVE-2025-24246: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
PackageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24261: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
PackageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: A logic issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24164: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
PackageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app with root privileges may be able to modify the contents of system files
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-30446: Pedro Tôrres (@t0rr3sp3dr0)
Parental Controls Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to retrieve Safari bookmarks without an entitlement check
Description: This issue was addressed with additional entitlement checks.
CVE-2025-24259: Noah Gregory (wts.dev)
Photos Storage Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Deleting a conversation in Messages may expose user contact information in system logging
Description: A logging issue was addressed with improved data redaction.
CVE-2025-30424: an anonymous researcher
Power Services Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to break out of its sandbox
Description: This issue was addressed with additional entitlement checks.
CVE-2025-24173: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
Python Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A remote attacker may be able to bypass sender policy checks and deliver malicious content via email
Description: This is a vulnerability in open source code and Apple Software is among the affected projects. The CVE-ID was assigned by a third party. Learn more about the issue and CVE-ID at cve.org.
CVE-2023-27043
RPAC Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: The issue was addressed with improved validation of environment variables.
CVE-2025-24191: Claudio Bozzato and Francesco Benvenuto of Cisco Talos
Safari Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Visiting a malicious website may lead to user interface spoofing
Description: The issue was addressed with improved UI.
CVE-2025-24113: @RenwaX23
Safari Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Visiting a malicious website may lead to address bar spoofing
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-30467: @RenwaX23
Safari Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A website may be able to access sensor information without user consent
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-31192: Jaydev Ahire
Safari Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A download's origin may be incorrectly associated
Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
CVE-2025-24167: Syarif Muhammad Sajjad
Sandbox Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access removable volumes without user consent
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24093: Yiğit Can YILMAZ (@yilmazcanyigit)
Sandbox Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An input validation issue was addressed
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-30452: an anonymous researcher
Sandbox Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24181: Arsenii Kostromin (0x3c3e)
SceneKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to read files outside of its sandbox
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-30458: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
Security Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A remote user may be able to cause a denial-of-service
Description: A validation issue was addressed with improved logic.
CVE-2025-30471: Bing Shi, Wenchao Li, Xiaolong Bai of Alibaba Group, Luyi Xing of Indiana University Bloomington
Security Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app acting as a HTTPS proxy could get access to sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved access restrictions.
CVE-2025-24250: Wojciech Regula of SecuRing (wojciechregula.blog)
Share Sheet Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to dismiss the system notification on the Lock Screen that a recording was started
Description: This issue was addressed with improved access restrictions.
CVE-2025-30438: Halle Winkler, Politepix theoffcuts.org
Shortcuts Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A shortcut may be able to access files that are normally inaccessible to the Shortcuts app
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with improved validation.
CVE-2025-30465: an anonymous researcher
Shortcuts Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access user-sensitive data
Description: An access issue was addressed with additional sandbox restrictions.
CVE-2025-24280: Kirin (@Pwnrin)
Shortcuts Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A Shortcut may run with admin privileges without authentication
Description: An authentication issue was addressed with improved state management.
CVE-2025-31194: Dolf Hoegaerts
Shortcuts Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A shortcut may be able to access files that are normally inaccessible to the Shortcuts app
Description: This issue was addressed with improved access restrictions.
CVE-2025-30433: Andrew James Gonzalez
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: The issue was addressed with improved restriction of data container access.
CVE-2025-31183: Kirin (@Pwnrin), Bohdan Stasiuk (@bohdan_stasiuk)
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A sandboxed app may be able to access sensitive user data in system logs
Description: This issue was addressed with improved redaction of sensitive information.
CVE-2025-30435: K宝 (@Pwnrin) and luckyu (@uuulucky)
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved redaction of sensitive information.
CVE-2025-24217: Kirin (@Pwnrin)
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access sensitive user data
Description: A privacy issue was addressed by not logging contents of text fields.
CVE-2025-24214: Kirin (@Pwnrin)
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to enumerate devices that have signed into the user's Apple Account
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24248: Minghao Lin (@Y1nKoc) and Tong Liu@Lyutoon_ and 风(binary_fmyy) and F00L
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access user-sensitive data
Description: An authorization issue was addressed with improved state management.
CVE-2025-24205: YingQi Shi(@Mas0nShi) of DBAppSecurity's WeBin lab and Minghao Lin (@Y1nKoc)
Siri Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An attacker with physical access may be able to use Siri to access sensitive user data
Description: This issue was addressed by restricting options offered on a locked device.
CVE-2025-24198: Richard Hyunho Im (@richeeta) with routezero.security
SMB Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24269: Alex Radocea of Supernetworks
SMB Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Mounting a maliciously crafted SMB network share may lead to system termination
Description: A race condition was addressed with improved locking.
CVE-2025-30444: Dave G.
SMB Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to execute arbitrary code with kernel privileges
Description: A buffer overflow issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24228: Joseph Ravichandran (@0xjprx) of MIT CSAIL
smbx Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An attacker in a privileged position may be able to perform a denial-of-service
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24260: zbleet of QI-ANXIN TianGong Team
Software Update Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: A library injection issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24282: Claudio Bozzato and Francesco Benvenuto of Cisco Talos
Software Update Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A user may be able to elevate privileges
Description: This issue was addressed with improved validation of symlinks.
CVE-2025-24254: Arsenii Kostromin (0x3c3e)
Software Update Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to modify protected parts of the file system
Description: The issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24231: Claudio Bozzato and Francesco Benvenuto of Cisco Talos
StickerKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to observe unprotected user data
Description: A privacy issue was addressed by moving sensitive data to a protected location.
CVE-2025-24263: Cristian Dinca of "Tudor Vianu" National High School of Computer Science, Romania
Storage Management Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to enable iCloud storage features without user consent
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24207: YingQi Shi (@Mas0nShi) of DBAppSecurity's WeBin lab, 风沐云烟 (binary_fmyy) and Minghao Lin (@Y1nKoc)
StorageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to gain root privileges
Description: A permissions issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-30449: Arsenii Kostromin (0x3c3e), and an anonymous researcher
StorageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved handling of symlinks.
CVE-2025-24253: Mickey Jin (@patch1t), Csaba Fitzl (@theevilbit) of Kandji
StorageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access user-sensitive data
Description: A race condition was addressed with additional validation.
CVE-2025-24240: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
StorageKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to bypass Privacy preferences
Description: A race condition was addressed with additional validation.
CVE-2025-31188: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
Summarization Services Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access information about a user's contacts
Description: A privacy issue was addressed with improved private data redaction for log entries.
CVE-2025-24218: Kirin and FlowerCode, Bohdan Stasiuk (@bohdan_stasiuk)
System Settings Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access protected user data
Description: This issue was addressed with improved validation of symlinks.
CVE-2025-24278: Zhongquan Li (@Guluisacat)
System Settings Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app with root privileges may be able to access private information
Description: This issue was addressed with improved handling of symlinks.
CVE-2025-24242: Koh M. Nakagawa (@tsunek0h) of FFRI Security, Inc.
SystemMigration Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious app may be able to create symlinks to protected regions of the disk
Description: This issue was addressed with improved validation of symlinks.
CVE-2025-30457: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
Voice Control Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to access contacts
Description: This issue was addressed with improved file handling.
CVE-2025-24279: Mickey Jin (@patch1t)
Web Extensions Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may gain unauthorized access to Local Network
Description: This issue was addressed with improved permissions checking.
CVE-2025-31184: Alexander Heinrich (@Sn0wfreeze), SEEMOO, TU Darmstadt & Mathy Vanhoef (@vanhoefm) and Jeroen Robben (@RobbenJeroen), DistriNet, KU Leuven
Web Extensions Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Visiting a website may leak sensitive data
Description: A script imports issue was addressed with improved isolation.
CVE-2025-24192: Vsevolod Kokorin (Slonser) of Solidlab
WebKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing maliciously crafted web content may lead to an unexpected Safari crash
Description: The issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
WebKit Bugzilla: 285892
CVE-2025-24264: Gary Kwong, and an anonymous researcher
WebKit Bugzilla: 284055
CVE-2025-24216: Paul Bakker of ParagonERP
WebKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A type confusion issue could lead to memory corruption
Description: This issue was addressed with improved handling of floats.
WebKit Bugzilla: 286694
CVE-2025-24213: Google V8 Security Team
WebKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing maliciously crafted web content may lead to an unexpected process crash
Description: A buffer overflow issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
WebKit Bugzilla: 286462
CVE-2025-24209: Francisco Alonso (@revskills), and an anonymous researcher
WebKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: Processing maliciously crafted web content may lead to an unexpected Safari crash
Description: A use-after-free issue was addressed with improved memory management.
WebKit Bugzilla: 285643
CVE-2025-30427: rheza (@ginggilBesel)
WebKit Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: A malicious website may be able to track users in Safari private browsing mode
Description: This issue was addressed through improved state management.
WebKit Bugzilla: 286580
CVE-2025-30425: an anonymous researcher
WindowServer Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An attacker may be able to cause unexpected app termination
Description: A type confusion issue was addressed with improved checks.
CVE-2025-24247: PixiePoint Security
WindowServer Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to trick a user into copying sensitive data to the pasteboard
Description: A configuration issue was addressed with additional restrictions.
CVE-2025-24241: Andreas Hegenberg (folivora.AI GmbH)
Xsan Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination
Description: A buffer overflow was addressed with improved bounds checking.
CVE-2025-24266: an anonymous researcher
Xsan Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination
Description: An out-of-bounds read was addressed with improved bounds checking.
CVE-2025-24265: an anonymous researcher
Xsan Available for: macOS Sequoia
Impact: An app may be able to cause unexpected system termination or corrupt kernel memory
Description: A buffer overflow issue was addressed with improved memory handling.
CVE-2025-24157: an anonymous researcher
-
@ 2b24a1fa:17750f64
2025-05-25 09:42:49Eine Stunde Klassik! Der Münchner Pianist und "Musikdurchdringer" Jürgen Plich stellt jeden Dienstag um 20 Uhr große klassische Musik vor. Er teilt seine Hör- und Spielerfahrung und seine persönliche Sicht auf die Meisterwerke. Er spielt selbst besondere, unbekannte Aufnahmen, erklärt, warum die Musik so und nicht anders klingt und hat eine Menge aus dem Leben der Komponisten zu erzählen.
https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/eine-stunde-klassik-opus-eins?
Sonntags um 10 Uhr in der Wiederholung.
-
@ 1bda7e1f:bb97c4d9
2025-03-26 03:23:00Tldr
- Nostr is a new open social protocol for the internet
- You can use it to create your own online community website/app for your users
- This needs only a few simple components that are free and open source
- Jumble.Social client is a front-end for showing your community content to your users
- Simple With Whitelist relay (SW2) is a back-end with simple auth for your community content
- In this blog I explain the components and set up a online community website/app that any community or company can use for their own users, for free.
You Can Run Your Own Private "X" For Free
Nostr is a new open social protocol for the internet. Because it is a protocol it is not controlled by any one company, does not reside on any one set of servers, does not require any licenses, and no one can stop you from using it however you like.
When the name Nostr is recognised, it is as a "Twitter/X alternative" – that is an online open public forum. Nostr is more than just this. The open nature of the protocol means that you can use it however you feel like, including that you can use it for creating your own social websites to suit whatever goals you have – anything from running your own team collaboration app, to running your own online community.
Nostr can be anything – not just an alternative to X, but also to Slack, Teams, Discord, Telegram (etc) – any kind of social app you'd like to run for your users can be run on Nostr.
In this blog I will show you how to launch your own community website, for your community members to use however they like, with low code, and for free.
Simple useful components
Nostr has a few simple components that work together to provide your experience –
- Your "client" – an app or a website front-end that you log into, which displays the content you want to see
- Your "relay" – a server back-end which receives and stores content, and sends it to clients
- Your "user" – a set of keys which represents a user on the network,
- Your "content" – any user content created and signed by a user, distributed to any relay, which can be picked up and viewed by any client.
It is a pattern that is used by every other social app on the internet, excepting that in those cases you can usually only view content in their app, and only post your content to their server.
Vs with Nostr where you can use any client (app) and any relay (server), including your own.
This is defined as a standard in NIP-01 which is simple enough that you can master it in a weekend, and with which you can build any kind of application.
The design space is wide open for anyone to build anything–
- Clones of Twitter, Instagram, Telegram, Medium, Twitch, etc,
- Whole new things like Private Ephemeral Messengers, Social Podcasting Apps, etc,
- Anything else you can dream up, like replacements for B2B SaaS or ERP systems.
Including that you can set up and run your own "X" for your community.
Super powers for –private– social internet
When considering my use of social internet, it is foremost private not public. Email, Whatsapp, Slack, Teams, Discord, Telegram (etc), are all about me, as a user, creating content for a selected group of individuals – close friends, colleagues, community members – not the wider public.
This private social internet is crying out for the kind of powers that Nostr provides. The list of things that Nostr solves for private social internet goes on-and-on.
Let me eat my own dog food for a moment.
- I am a member of a community of technology entrepreneurs with an app for internal community comms. The interface is not fit for this purpose. Good content gets lost. Any content created within the walled kingdom cannot be shared externally. Community members cannot migrate to a different front-end, or cross-post to public social channels.
- I am a member of many communities for kids social groups, each one with a different application and log in. There is no way to view a consolidated feed. There is no way to send one message to many communities, or share content between them. Remembering to check every feed separately is a drag.
- I am a member of a team with an app for team comms. It costs $XXX per user per month where it should be free. I can't self-host. I can't control or export my data. I can't make it interoperate natively with other SaaS. All of my messages probably go to train a Big Co AI without my consent.
In each instance "Nostr fixes this."
Ready now for low-code admins
To date Nostr has been best suited to a more technical user. To use the Nostr protocol directly has been primarily a field of great engineers building great foundations.
IMO these foundations are built. They are open source, free to use, and accessible for anyone who wants to create an administer their own online community, with only low code required.
To prove it, in this blog I will scratch my own itch. I need a X / Slack / Teams alternative to use with a few team members and friends (and a few AIs) as we hack on establishing a new business idea.
I will set this up with Nostr using only open source code, for free.
Designing the Solution
I am mostly non-technical with helpful AI. To set up your own community website in the style of X / Slack / Teams should be possible for anyone with basic technology skills.
- I have a cheap VPS which currently runs some other unrelated Nostr projects in Docker containers,
- My objective was to set up and run my own community website for my own team use, in Docker, hosted on my own server.
User requirements
What will I want from a community website?
- I want my users to be able to log into a website and post content,
- I want to save that content to a server I control accessed only be people I authorise,
- I want my users to view only that content by default, and not be exposed to any wider public social network unless they knowingly select that,
- I want my user's content to be either:
- a) viewable only by other community members (i.e. for internal team comms), or
- b) by the wider public (i.e. for public announcements), at the user's discretion.
- I want it to be open source so that other people maintain the code for me,
- I want it for free.
Nostr solutions
To achieve this with Nostr, I'll need to select some solutions "a-la carte" for each of the core components of the network.
- A client – For my client, I have chosen Jumble. Jumble is a free open-source client by Cody Tseng, available free on Github or at Jumble.social. I have chosen Jumble because it is a "relay-centric" client. In key spots the user interface highlights for the user what relay they are viewing, and what relay they are posting to. As a result, it is a beautiful fit for me to use as the home of all my community content.
- A relay – For my relay, I have chosen Simple With Whitelist (SW2). SW2 is a free open-source relay by Utxo The Webmaster, based on Khatru by Fiatjaf, available free on Github. I have chosen SW2 because it allows for very simple configuration of user auth. Users can be given read access to view notes, and write access to post notes within simple
config.json
files. This allows you to keep community content private or selectively share it in a variety of ways. Per the Nostr protocol, your client will connect with your relay via websocket. - A user sign-up flow – Jumble has a user sign-up flow using Nstart by Fiatjaf, or as an admin I can create and provision my own users with any simple tool like NAK or Nostrtool.
- A user content flow – Jumble has a user content flow that can post notes to selected relays of the users choice. Rich media is uploaded to free third-party hosts like Nostr.build, and in the future there is scope to self-host this too.
With each of these boxes ticked I'm ready to start.
Launching a Private Community Website with Jumble and SW2
Install your SW2 relay
The relay is the trickiest part, so let's start there. SW2 is my Nostr relay software of choice. It is a Go application and includes full instructions for Go install. However, I prefer Docker, so I have built a Docker version and maintain a Docker branch here.
1 – In a terminal clone the repo and checkout the Docker branch
git clone https://github.com/r0d8lsh0p/sw2.git cd sw2 git checkout docker
2 – Set up the environment variables
These are specified in the readme. Duplicate the example .env file and fill it with your variables.
cp .env.example .env
For me this .env file was as follows–
```
Relay Metadata
RELAY_NAME="Tbdai relay" RELAY_PUBKEY="ede41352397758154514148b24112308ced96d121229b0e6a66bc5a2b40c03ec" RELAY_DESCRIPTION="An experimental relay for some people and robots working on a TBD AI project." RELAY_URL="wss://assistantrelay.rodbishop.nz" RELAY_ICON="https://image.nostr.build/44654201843fc0f03e9a72fbf8044143c66f0dd4d5350688db69345f9da05007.jpg" RELAY_CONTACT="https://rodbishop.nz" ```
3 – Specify who can read and write to the relay
This is controlled by two config files
read_whitelist.json
andwrite_whitelist.json
.- Any user with their pubkey in the
read_whitelist
can read notes posted to the relay. If empty, anyone can read. - Any user with their pubkey in the
write_whitelist
can post notes to the relay. If empty, anyone can write.
We'll get to creating and authorising more users later, for now I suggest to add yourself to each whitelist, by copying your pubkey into each JSON file. For me this looks as follows (note, I use the 'hex' version of the pubkey, rather than the npub)–
{ "pubkeys": [ "1bda7e1f7396bda2d1ef99033da8fd2dc362810790df9be62f591038bb97c4d9" ] }
If this is your first time using Nostr and you don't yet have any user keys, it is easy and free to get one. You can get one from any Nostr client like Jumble.social, any tool like NAK or nostrtool.com or follow a comprehensive guide like my guide on mining a Nostr key.
4 – Launch your relay
If you are using my Docker fork from above, then–
docker compose up
Your relay should now be running on port 3334 and ready to accept web socket connections from your client.
Before you move on to set up the client, it's helpful to quickly test that it is running as expected.
5 – Test your websocket connection
For this I use a tool called wscat to make a websocket connection.
You may need to install wscat, e.g.
npm install -g wscat
And then run it, e.g.
wscat -c ws://localhost:3334
(note use
ws://
for localhost, rather thanwss://
).If your relay is working successfully then it should receive your websocket connection request and respond with an AUTH token, asking you to identify yourself as a user in the relay's
read_whitelist.json
(using the standard outlined in NIP-42), e.g.``` Connected (press CTRL+C to quit) < ["AUTH","13206fea43ef2952"]
```
You do not need to authorise for now.
If you received this kind of message, your relay is working successfully.
Set a subdomain for your relay
Let's connect a domain name so your community members can access your relay.
1 – Configure DNS
At a high level –
- Get your domain (buy one if you need to)
- Get the IP address of your VPS
- In your domain's DNS settings add those records as an A record to the subdomain of your choice, e.g.
relay
as inrelay.your_domain_name.com
, or in my caseassistantrelay.rodbishop.nz
Your subdomain now points to your server.
2 – Configure reverse proxy
You need to redirect traffic from your subdomain to your relay at port
3334
.On my VPS I use Caddy as a reverse proxy for a few projects, I have it sitting in a separate Docker network. To use it for my SW2 Relay required two steps.
First – I added configuration to Caddy's
Caddyfile
to tell it what to do with requests for therelay.your_domain_name.com
subdomain. For me this looked like–assistantrelay.rodbishop.nz { reverse_proxy sw2-relay:3334 { # Enable WebSocket support header_up X-Forwarded-For {remote} header_up X-Forwarded-Proto {scheme} header_up X-Forwarded-Port {server_port} } }
Second – I added the Caddy Docker network to the SW2
docker-compose.yml
to make it be part of the Caddy network. In my Docker branch, I provide this commented section which you can uncomment and use if you like.``` services: relay: ... relay configuration here ...
networks:
- caddy # Connect to a Caddy network for reverse proxy
networks:
caddy:
external: true # Connect to a Caddy network for reverse proxy
```
Your relay is now running at your domain name.
Run Jumble.social
Your client set up is very easy, as most heavy lifting is done by your relay. My client of choice is Jumble because it has features that focus the user experience on the community's content first. You have two options for running Jumble.
- Run your own local copy of Jumble by cloning the Github (optional)
- Use the public instance at Jumble.social (easier, and what we'll do in this demo)
If you (optionally) want to run your own local copy of Jumble:
git clone https://github.com/CodyTseng/jumble.git cd jumble npm install npm run dev
For this demo, I will just use the public instance at http://jumble.social
Jumble has a very helpful user interface for set up and configuration. But, I wanted to think ahead to onboarding community members, and so instead I will do some work up front in order to give new members a smooth onboarding flow that I would suggest for an administrator to use in onboarding their community.
1 – Create a custom landing page URL for your community members to land on
When your users come to your website for the first time, you want them to get your community experience without any distraction. That will either be–
- A prompt to sign up or login (if only authorised users can read content)
- The actual content from your other community members (If all users can read content)
Your landing page URL will look like:
http://jumble.social/?r=wss://relay.your_domain_name.com
http://jumble.social/
– the URL of the Jumble instance you are using?r=
– telling Jumble to read from a relaywss://
– relays connect via websocket using wss, rather than httpsrelay.your_domain_name.com
– the domain name of your relay
For me, this URL looks like
http://jumble.social/?r=wss://assistantrelay.rodbishop.nz
2 – Visit your custom Jumble URL
This should load the landing page of your relay on Jumble.
In the background, Jumble has attempted to establish a websocket connection to your relay.
If your relay is configured with read authentication, it has sent a challenge to Jumble asking your user to authenticate. Jumble, accordingly should now be showing you a login screen, asking your user to login.
3 – Login or Sign Up
You will see a variety of sign up and login options. To test, log in with the private key that you have configured to have read and write access.
In the background, Jumble has connected via websocket to your relay, checked that your user is authorised to view notes, and if so, has returned all the content on the relay. (If this is your first time here, there would not be any content yet).
If you give this link to your users to use as their landing page, they will land, login, and see only notes from members of your community.
4– Make your first post to your community
Click the "post" button and post a note. Jumble offers you the option to "Send only to relay.your_domain_name.com".
- If set to on, then Jumble will post the note only to your relay, no others. It will also include a specific tag (the
"-"
tag) which requests relays to not forward the note across the network. Only your community members viewing notes on your community relay can see it. - If set to off, then Jumble will post the note to your relay and also the wider public Nostr network. Community members viewing notes on the relay can see it, and so can any user of the wider Nostr network.
5– Optional, configure your relay sets
At the top of the screen you should now see a dropdown with the URL of your relay.
Each user can save this relay to a "relay set" for future use, and also view, add or delete other relays sets including some sets which Jumble comes with set up by default.
As an admin you can use this to give users access to multiple relays. And, as a user, you can use this to access posts from multiple different community relays, all within the one client.
Your community website is up and running
That is the basic set up completed.
- You have a website where your community members can visit a URL to post notes and view all notes from all other members of the community.
- You have basic administration to enforce your own read and write permissions very simply in two json files.
Let's check in with my user requirements as a community admin–
- My community is saving content to a server where I control access
- My users view only that content by default, and are not exposed to any wider public social network unless they knowingly select that
- My user's content is a) viewable only by other community members, or b) by the wider public, at the user's discretion
- Other people are maintaining the code for me
- It's free
This setup has scope to solve my dog fooding issues from earlier–
- If adopted, my tech community can iterate the interface to suit its needs, find great content, and share content beyond the community.
- If adopted, my kids social groups can each have their own relays, but I can post to all of them together, or view a consolidated feed.
- If adopted, my team can chat with each other for free. I can self host this. It can natively interoperate with any other Nostr SaaS. It would be entirely private and will not be captured to train a Big Co AI without my consent.
Using your community website in practice
An example onboarding flow
- A new member joins your IRL community
- Your admin person gives them your landing page URL where they can view all the posts by your community members – If you have configured your relay to have no read auth required, then they can land on that landing page and immediately start viewing your community's posts, a great landing experience
- The user user creates a Nostr profile, and provides the admin person with their public key
- The admin person adds their key to the whitelists to read and write as you desire.
Default inter-op with the wider Nostr network
- If you change your mind on SW2 and want to use a different relay, your notes will be supported natively, and you can migrate on your own terms
- If you change your mind on Jumble and want to use a different client, your relay will be supported natively, and you can migrate on your own terms
- If you want to add other apps to your community's experience, every Nostr app will interoperate with your community by default – see the huge list at Awesome Nostr
- If any of your users want to view your community notes inside some other Nostr client – perhaps to see a consolidated feed of notes from all their different communities – they can.
For me, I use Amethyst app as my main Nostr client to view the public posts from people I follow. I have added my private community relay to Amethyst, and now my community posts appear alongside all these other posts in a single consolidated feed.
Scope to further improve
- You can run multiple different relays with different user access – e.g. one for wider company and one for your team
- You can run your own fork of Jumble and change the interface to suit you needs – e.g. add your logo, change the colours, link to other resources from the sidebar.
Other ideas for running communities
- Guest accounts: You can give a user "guest" access – read auth, but no write auth – to help people see the value of your community before becoming members.
- Running a knowledge base: You can whitelist users to read notes, but only administrators can post notes.
- Running a blind dropbox: You can whitelist users to post notes, but only the administrator can read notes.
- Running on a local terminal only: With Jumble and SW2 installed on a machine, running at –
localhost:5173
for Jumble, andlocalhost:3334
for SW2 you can have an entirely local experience athttp://localhost:5173/?r=ws://localhost:3334
.
What's Next?
In my first four blogs I explored creating a good Nostr setup with Vanity Npub, Lightning Payments, Nostr Addresses at Your Domain, and Personal Nostr Relay.
Then in my latest three blogs I explored different types of interoperability with NFC cards, n8n Workflow Automation, and now running a private community website on Nostr.
For this community website–
- There is scope to make some further enhancements to SW2, including to add a "Blossom" media server so that community admins can self-host their own rich media, and to create an admin screen for administration of the whitelists using NIP-86.
- There is scope to explore all other kinds of Nostr clients to form the front-end of community websites, including Chachi.chat, Flotilla, and others.
- Nostr includes a whole variety of different optional standards for making more elaborate online communities including NIP-28, NIP-29, NIP-17, NIP-72 (etc). Each gives certain different capabilities, and I haven't used any of them! For this simple demo they are not required, but each could be used to extend the capabilities of the admin and community.
I am also doing a lot of work with AI on Nostr, including that I use my private community website as a front-end for engaging with a Nostr AI. I'll post about this soon too.
Please be sure to let me know if you think there's another Nostr topic you'd like to see me tackle.
GM Nostr.
-
@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-25 09:20:07Phasellus erat metus, suscipit et nisi a, dignissim luctus risus\ Nam eleifend aliquet aliquam
Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et
-
@ 86dfbe73:628cef55
2025-05-25 08:20:07Robustheit ist die Eigenschaft eines Systems, auch unter schwierigen Bedingungen funktionieren zu können: trotz Störungen und einer gewissen Verschlechterung seiner internen Prozesse. Das Leben als Ganzes ist robust. Dasselbe gilt für Ökosysteme: Sie können den Verlust einiger Arten überstehen und sich an veränderte Umweltbedingungen anpassen.
Der Hauptfeind der Robustheit ist das Streben nach Effizienz. Ein auf Effizienz optimiertes System hat keine Reserven mehr, sich an Störungen anzupassen. Es wird fragil. Wir optimieren die Gesellschaft und ihre Subsysteme (z. B. Institutionen) seit 5000 Jahren auf Wachstum, Effizienz und Produktivität. Und wir haben das Optimierungstempo mit den beiden Turbo-Boosts fossile Brennstoffe und Informationstechnologie beschleunigt. Deshalb ist alles um uns herum fragil geworden. Beispielsweise kann ein Virusausbruch in China sich zu einer Pandemie entwickeln, weil die Menschen weit und schnell reisen können und müssen.
Robustheit ist nicht absolut und dauerhaft. Ein System kann durch Störungen, die zu gravierend für es sind, fragil werden. Ehemals robuste Ökosysteme wie Regenwälder wurden durch menschliche Ausbeutung fragil. Deregulierung hat sowohl Regierungen als auch die Wirtschaft effizienter gemacht, allerdings zum Preis zunehmender Fragilität. Unternehmen sind mächtiger geworden als viele Staaten, was bedeutet, dass demokratisch gewählte Parlamente und Regierungen nicht mehr die Kontrolle haben. Heute kann eine einzelne Person demokratische Wahlen weltweit manipulieren, indem sie ein soziales Netzwerk kontrolliert. Das ist Fragilität pur.
Wir müssen als Gesellschaft die Effizienz in den Hintergrund rücken und uns mehr auf Robustheit konzentrieren.
-
@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-03-21 20:31:24Introduction
Unlike other cetaceans that rely on whistles and songs, sperm whales primarily use echolocation and patterned click sequences to convey information. This paper explores the structure, function, and implications of their vocal communication, particularly in relation to their social behaviors and cognitive abilities.
1. The Nature of Sperm Whale Vocalizations
Sperm whales produce three primary types of clicks:
- Echolocation clicks for navigation and hunting.
- Regular clicks used in deep diving.
- Codas, which are rhythmic sequences exchanged between individuals, believed to function in social bonding and identification.Each whale possesses a monumental sound-producing organ, the spermaceti organ, which allows for the production of powerful sounds that can travel long distances. The structure of these clicks suggests a level of vocal learning and adaptation, as different populations exhibit distinct coda repertoires.
2. Cultural and Regional Variation in Codas
Research indicates that different sperm whale clans have unique dialects, much like human languages. These dialects are not genetically inherited but culturally transmitted, meaning whales learn their communication styles from social interactions rather than instinct alone. Studies conducted in the Caribbean and the Pacific have revealed that whales in different regions have distinct coda patterns, with some being universal and others specific to certain clans.
3. Social Organization and Communication
Sperm whales are matrilineal and live in stable social units composed of mothers, calves, and juveniles, while males often lead solitary lives. Communication plays a critical role in maintaining social bonds within these groups.
- Codas serve as an acoustic signature that helps individuals recognize each other.
- More complex codas may function in coordinating group movements or teaching young whales.
- Some researchers hypothesize that codas convey emotional states, much like tone of voice in human speech.4. Theories on Whale Intelligence and Language-Like Communication
The complexity of sperm whale vocalization raises profound questions about their cognitive abilities.
- Some researchers argue that sperm whale communication exhibits combinatorial properties, meaning that codas might function in ways similar to human phonemes, allowing for an extensive range of meanings.
- Studies using AI and machine learning have attempted to decode potential syntax patterns, but a full understanding of their language remains elusive.5. Conservation Implications and the Need for Further Research
Understanding sperm whale communication is essential for conservation efforts. Noise pollution from shipping, sonar, and industrial activities can interfere with whale vocalizations, potentially disrupting social structures and navigation. Future research must focus on long-term coda tracking, cross-species comparisons, and experimental approaches to deciphering their meaning.
Consider
Sperm whale vocal communication represents one of the most intriguing areas of marine mammal research. Their ability to transmit learned vocalizations across generations suggests a high degree of cultural complexity. Although we have yet to fully decode their language, the study of sperm whale codas offers critical insights into non-human intelligence, social structures, and the evolution of communication in the animal kingdom.
-
@ 4fe14ef2:f51992ec
2025-05-25 10:04:36Let's support Bitcoin merchants! I'd love to hear some of your latest Lightning purchases and interesting products you bought. Feel free to include links to the shops or businesses you bought from.
Who else has a recent purchase they’re excited about? Bonus sats if you found a killer deal! ⚡
Spend sats, not fiat!
If you missed our last thread, here are some of the items stackers recently spent and zap on.
Share and repost: N: https://njump.me/note1r0rllvtns2e8g2rqn0p9uytxucmjzal3pxslldjtfmxwp2amwjjqy3aazq X: https://x.com/AGORA_SN/status/1926579498629169410
https://stacker.news/items/988783
-
@ 16f1a010:31b1074b
2025-03-20 14:32:25grain is a nostr relay built using Go, currently utilizing MongoDB as its database. Binaries are provided for AMD64 Windows and Linux. grain is Go Relay Architecture for Implementing Nostr
Introduction
grain is a nostr relay built using Go, currently utilizing MongoDB as its database. Binaries are provided for AMD64 Windows and Linux. grain is Go Relay Architecture for Implementing Nostr
Prerequisites
- Grain requires a running MongoDB instance. Please refer to this separate guide for instructions on setting up MongoDB: nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq9h35qgq6n8ll0xyyv8gurjzjrx9sjwp4hry6ejnlks8cqcmzp6tqqxnzde5xg6rwwp5xsuryd3knfdr7g
Download Grain
Download the latest release for your system from the GitHub releases page
amd64 binaries provided for Windows and Linux, if you have a different CPU architecture, you can download and install go to build grain from source
Installation and Execution
- Create a new folder on your system where you want to run Grain.
- The downloaded binary comes bundled with a ZIP file containing a folder named "app," which holds the frontend HTML files. Unzip the "app" folder into the same directory as the Grain executable.
Run Grain
- Open your terminal or command prompt and navigate to the Grain directory.
- Execute the Grain binary.
on linux you will first have to make the program executable
chmod +x grain_linux_amd64
Then you can run the program
./grain_linux_amd64
(alternatively on windows, you can just double click the grain_windows_amd64.exe to start the relay)
You should see a terminal window displaying the port on which your relay and frontend are running.
If you get
Failed to copy app/static/examples/config.example.yml to config.yml: open app/static/examples/config.example.yml: no such file or directory
Then you probably forgot to put the app folder in the same directory as your executable or you did not unzip the folder.
Congrats! You're running grain 🌾!
You may want to change your NIP11 relay information document (relay_metadata.json) This informs clients of the capabilities, administrative contacts, and various server attributes. It's located in the same directory as your executable.
Configuration Files
Once Grain has been executed for the first time, it will generate the default configuration files inside the directory where the executable is located. These files are:
bash config.yml whitelist.yml blacklist.yml
Prerequisites: - Grain requires a running MongoDB instance. Please refer to this separate guide for instructions on setting up MongoDB: [Link to MongoDB setup guide].
Download Grain:
Download the latest release for your system from the GitHub releases page
amd64 binaries provided for Windows and Linux, if you have a different CPU architecture, you can download and install go to build grain from source
Installation and Execution:
- Create a new folder on your system where you want to run Grain.
- The downloaded binary comes bundled with a ZIP file containing a folder named "app," which holds the frontend HTML files. Unzip the "app" folder into the same directory as the Grain executable.
Run Grain:
- Open your terminal or command prompt and navigate to the Grain directory.
- Execute the Grain binary.
on linux you will first have to make the program executable
chmod +x grain_linux_amd64
Then you can run the program
./grain_linux_amd64
(alternatively on windows, you can just double click the grain_windows_amd64.exe to start the relay)
You should see a terminal window displaying the port on which your relay and frontend are running.
If you get
Failed to copy app/static/examples/config.example.yml to config.yml: open app/static/examples/config.example.yml: no such file or directory
Then you probably forgot to put the app folder in the same directory as your executable or you did not unzip the folder.
Congrats! You're running grain 🌾!
You may want to change your NIP11 relay information document (relay_metadata.json) This informs clients of the capabilities, administrative contacts, and various server attributes. It's located in the same directory as your executable.
Configuration Files:
Once Grain has been executed for the first time, it will generate the default configuration files inside the directory where the executable is located. These files are:
bash config.yml whitelist.yml blacklist.yml
Configuration Documentation
You can always find the latest example configs on my site or in the github repo here: config.yml
Config.yml
This
config.yml
file is where you customize how your Grain relay operates. Each section controls different aspects of the relay's behavior.1.
mongodb
(Database Settings)uri: mongodb://localhost:27017/
:- This is the connection string for your MongoDB database.
mongodb://localhost:27017/
indicates that your MongoDB server is running on the same computer as your Grain relay (localhost) and listening on port 27017 (the default MongoDB port).- If your MongoDB server is on a different machine, you'll need to change
localhost
to the server's IP address or hostname. - The trailing
/
indicates the root of the mongodb server. You will define the database in the next line.
database: grain
:- This specifies the name of the MongoDB database that Grain will use to store Nostr events. Grain will create this database if it doesn't already exist.
- You can name the database whatever you want. If you want to run multiple grain relays, you can and they can have different databases running on the same mongo server.
2.
server
(Relay Server Settings)port: :8181
:- This sets the port on which your Grain relay will listen for incoming nostr websocket connections and what port the frontend will be available at.
read_timeout: 10 # in seconds
:- This is the maximum time (in seconds) that the relay will wait for a client to send data before closing the connection.
write_timeout: 10 # in seconds
:- This is the maximum time (in seconds) that the relay will wait for a client to receive data before closing the connection.
idle_timeout: 120 # in seconds
:- This is the maximum time (in seconds) that the relay will keep a connection open if there's no activity.
max_connections: 100
:- This sets the maximum number of simultaneous client connections that the relay will allow.
max_subscriptions_per_client: 10
:- This sets the maximum amount of subscriptions a single client can request from the relay.
3.
resource_limits
(System Resource Limits)cpu_cores: 2 # Limit the number of CPU cores the application can use
:- This restricts the number of CPU cores that Grain can use. Useful for controlling resource usage on your server.
memory_mb: 1024 # Cap the maximum amount of RAM in MB the application can use
:- This limits the maximum amount of RAM (in megabytes) that Grain can use.
heap_size_mb: 512 # Set a limit on the Go garbage collector's heap size in MB
:- This sets a limit on the amount of memory that the Go programming language's garbage collector can use.
4.
auth
(Authentication Settings)enabled: false # Enable or disable AUTH handling
:- If set to
true
, this enables authentication handling, requiring clients to authenticate before using the relay.
- If set to
relay_url: "wss://relay.example.com/" # Specify the relay URL
:- If authentication is enabled, this is the url that clients will use to authenticate.
5.
UserSync
(User Synchronization)user_sync: false
:- If set to true, the relay will attempt to sync user data from other relays.
disable_at_startup: true
:- If user sync is enabled, this will prevent the sync from starting when the relay starts.
initial_sync_relays: [...]
:- A list of other relays to pull user data from.
kinds: []
:- A list of event kinds to pull from the other relays. Leaving this empty will pull all event kinds.
limit: 100
:- The limit of events to pull from the other relays.
exclude_non_whitelisted: true
:- If set to true, only users on the whitelist will have their data synced.
interval: 360
:- The interval in minutes that the relay will resync user data.
6.
backup_relay
(Backup Relay)enabled: false
:- If set to true, the relay will send copies of received events to the backup relay.
url: "wss://some-relay.com"
:- The url of the backup relay.
7.
event_purge
(Event Purging)enabled: false
:- If set to
true
, the relay will automatically delete old events.
- If set to
keep_interval_hours: 24
:- The number of hours to keep events before purging them.
purge_interval_minutes: 240
:- How often (in minutes) the purging process runs.
purge_by_category: ...
:- Allows you to specify which categories of events (regular, replaceable, addressable, deprecated) to purge.
purge_by_kind_enabled: false
:- If set to true, events will be purged based on the kinds listed below.
kinds_to_purge: ...
:- A list of event kinds to purge.
exclude_whitelisted: true
:- If set to true, events from whitelisted users will not be purged.
8.
event_time_constraints
(Event Time Constraints)min_created_at: 1577836800
:- The minimum
created_at
timestamp (Unix timestamp) that events must have to be accepted by the relay.
- The minimum
max_created_at_string: now+5m
:- The maximum created at time that an event can have. This example shows that the max created at time is 5 minutes in the future from the time the event is received.
min_created_at_string
andmax_created_at
work the same way.
9.
rate_limit
(Rate Limiting)ws_limit: 100
:- The maximum number of WebSocket messages per second that the relay will accept.
ws_burst: 200
:- Allows a temporary burst of WebSocket messages.
event_limit: 50
:- The maximum number of Nostr events per second that the relay will accept.
event_burst: 100
:- Allows a temporary burst of Nostr events.
req_limit: 50
:- The limit of http requests per second.
req_burst: 100
:- The allowed burst of http requests.
max_event_size: 51200
:- The maximum size (in bytes) of a Nostr event that the relay will accept.
kind_size_limits: ...
:- Allows you to set size limits for specific event kinds.
category_limits: ...
:- Allows you to set rate limits for different event categories (ephemeral, addressable, regular, replaceable).
kind_limits: ...
:- Allows you to set rate limits for specific event kinds.
By understanding these settings, you can tailor your Grain Nostr relay to meet your specific needs and resource constraints.
whitelist.yml
The
whitelist.yml
file is used to control which users, event kinds, and domains are allowed to interact with your Grain relay. Here's a breakdown of the settings:1.
pubkey_whitelist
(Public Key Whitelist)enabled: false
:- If set to
true
, this enables the public key whitelist. Only users whose public keys are listed will be allowed to publish events to your relay.
- If set to
pubkeys:
:- A list of hexadecimal public keys that are allowed to publish events.
pubkey1
andpubkey2
are placeholders, you will replace these with actual hexadecimal public keys.
npubs:
:- A list of npubs that are allowed to publish events.
npub18ls2km9aklhzw9yzqgjfu0anhz2z83hkeknw7sl22ptu8kfs3rjq54am44
andnpub2
are placeholders, replace them with actual npubs.- npubs are bech32 encoded public keys.
2.
kind_whitelist
(Event Kind Whitelist)enabled: false
:- If set to
true
, this enables the event kind whitelist. Only events with the specified kinds will be allowed.
- If set to
kinds:
:- A list of event kinds (as strings) that are allowed.
"1"
and"2"
are example kinds. Replace these with the kinds you want to allow.- Example kinds are 0 for metadata, 1 for short text notes, and 2 for recommend server.
3.
domain_whitelist
(Domain Whitelist)enabled: false
:- If set to
true
, this enables the domain whitelist. This checks the domains .well-known folder for their nostr.json. This file contains a list of pubkeys. They will be considered whitelisted if on this list.
- If set to
domains:
:- A list of domains that are allowed.
"example.com"
and"anotherdomain.com"
are example domains. Replace these with the domains you want to allow.
blacklist.yml
The
blacklist.yml
file allows you to block specific content, users, and words from your Grain relay. Here's a breakdown of the settings:1.
enabled: true
- This setting enables the blacklist functionality. If set to
true
, the relay will actively block content and users based on the rules defined in this file.
2.
permanent_ban_words:
- This section lists words that, if found in an event, will result in a permanent ban for the event's author.
- really bad word
is a placeholder. Replace it with any words you want to permanently block.
3.
temp_ban_words:
- This section lists words that, if found in an event, will result in a temporary ban for the event's author.
- crypto
,- web3
, and- airdrop
are examples. Replace them with the words you want to temporarily block.
4.
max_temp_bans: 3
- This sets the maximum number of temporary bans a user can receive before they are permanently banned.
5.
temp_ban_duration: 3600
- This sets the duration of a temporary ban in seconds.
3600
seconds equals one hour.
6.
permanent_blacklist_pubkeys:
- This section lists hexadecimal public keys that are permanently blocked from using the relay.
- db0c9b8acd6101adb9b281c5321f98f6eebb33c5719d230ed1870997538a9765
is an example. Replace it with the public keys you want to block.
7.
permanent_blacklist_npubs:
- This section lists npubs that are permanently blocked from using the relay.
- npub1x0r5gflnk2mn6h3c70nvnywpy2j46gzqwg6k7uw6fxswyz0md9qqnhshtn
is an example. Replace it with the npubs you want to block.- npubs are the human readable version of public keys.
8.
mutelist_authors:
- This section lists hexadecimal public keys of author of a kind1000 mutelist. Pubkey authors on this mutelist will be considered on the permanent blacklist. This provides a nostr native way to handle the backlist of your relay
- 3fe0ab6cbdb7ee27148202249e3fb3b89423c6f6cda6ef43ea5057c3d93088e4
is an example. Replace it with the public keys of authors that have a mutelist you would like to use as a blacklist. Consider using your own.- Important Note: The mutelist Event MUST be stored in this relay for it to be retrieved. This means your relay must have a copy of the authors kind10000 mutelist to consider them for the blacklist.
Running Grain as a Service:
Windows Service:
To run Grain as a Windows service, you can use tools like NSSM (Non-Sucking Service Manager). NSSM allows you to easily install and manage any application as a Windows service.
* For instructions on how to install NSSM, please refer to this article: [Link to NSSM install guide coming soon].
-
Open Command Prompt as Administrator:
- Open the Windows Start menu, type "cmd," right-click on "Command Prompt," and select "Run as administrator."
-
Navigate to NSSM Directory:
- Use the
cd
command to navigate to the directory where you extracted NSSM. For example, if you extracted it toC:\nssm
, you would typecd C:\nssm
and press Enter.
- Use the
-
Install the Grain Service:
- Run the command
nssm install grain
. - A GUI will appear, allowing you to configure the service.
- Run the command
-
Configure Service Details:
- In the "Path" field, enter the full path to your Grain executable (e.g.,
C:\grain\grain_windows_amd64.exe
). - In the "Startup directory" field, enter the directory where your Grain executable is located (e.g.,
C:\grain
).
- In the "Path" field, enter the full path to your Grain executable (e.g.,
-
Install the Service:
- Click the "Install service" button.
-
Manage the Service:
- You can now manage the Grain service using the Windows Services manager. Open the Start menu, type "services.msc," and press Enter. You can start, stop, pause, or restart the Grain service from there.
Linux Service (systemd):
To run Grain as a Linux service, you can use systemd, the standard service manager for most modern Linux distributions.
-
Create a Systemd Service File:
- Open a text editor with root privileges (e.g.,
sudo nano /etc/systemd/system/grain.service
).
- Open a text editor with root privileges (e.g.,
-
Add Service Configuration:
- Add the following content to the
grain.service
file, replacing the placeholders with your actual paths and user information:
```toml [Unit] Description=Grain Nostr Relay After=network.target
[Service] ExecStart=/path/to/grain_linux_amd64 WorkingDirectory=/path/to/grain/directory Restart=always User=your_user #replace your_user Group=your_group #replace your_group
[Install] WantedBy=multi-user.target ```
- Replace
/path/to/grain/executable
with the full path to your Grain executable. - Replace
/path/to/grain/directory
with the directory containing your Grain executable. - Replace
your_user
andyour_group
with the username and group that will run the Grain service.
- Add the following content to the
-
Reload Systemd:
- Run the command
sudo systemctl daemon-reload
to reload the systemd configuration.
- Run the command
-
Enable the Service:
- Run the command
sudo systemctl enable grain.service
to enable the service to start automatically on boot.
- Run the command
-
Start the Service:
- Run the command
sudo systemctl start grain.service
to start the service immediately.
- Run the command
-
Check Service Status:
- Run the command
sudo systemctl status grain.service
to check the status of the Grain service. This will show you if the service is running and any recent logs. - You can run
sudo journalctl -f -u grain.service
to watch the logs
- Run the command
More guides are in the works for setting up tailscale to access your relay from anywhere over a private network and for setting up a cloudflare tunnel to your domain to deploy a grain relay accessible on a subdomain of your site eg wss://relay.yourdomain.com
-
@ 17538dc2:71ed77c4
2025-03-20 03:40:31Who were they? Testing long form publication via yakihonne
-
@ 9c9d2765:16f8c2c2
2025-05-25 08:26:53CHAPTER TWENTY EIGHT
“He’s not just surviving,” Helen hissed through clenched teeth, her heels striking the marble floors of her penthouse like war drums. “He’s thriving, and it’s infuriating.”
Mark leaned against the window, watching the evening lights of the city shimmer beneath them. “That transparency stunt he pulled? Genius,” he muttered. “It shut down every accusation we tried to plant before it could sprout.”
Helen turned abruptly. “Then we change the terrain. If he’s building on trust, we flood him with betrayal. We turn his loyalists into doubters.”
Mark raised a brow. “And how do you propose we do that?”
She walked over to the coffee table, picked up a manila envelope, and tossed it onto his lap. It opened with a quiet rustle, revealing photos some staged, others manipulated of James in ambiguous meetings, with headlines drafted in bold red: “JP President Linked to Foreign Espionage?”, “Undisclosed Meetings with Rival Companies.”
“These go live next week,” Helen said coldly. “And if we can’t break his empire from the outside, we’ll corrode it from within.”
Meanwhile, across the city, James stood in the training hall of JP Enterprises, overseeing a leadership seminar. The room brimmed with young professionals, eager minds molded by his vision. He paced slowly, hands behind his back.
“Leadership isn’t about dominance,” he said, his voice calm yet commanding. “It’s about service. True power lies in how many people rise because of you, not how many kneel before you.”
Applause followed, but James’s mind drifted. The storm was coming and he could feel it. The shadows hadn’t retreated; they’d merely been biding their time. But what Helen and Mark underestimated was the strength of what he’d built. This time, he wasn’t alone.
After the seminar, he returned to his office where Rita and Charles were already waiting.
“They’re not backing down,” Rita said, placing a thick fillet on his desk. “Our cybersecurity team intercepted metadata from an anonymous article scheduled to be released next Monday. It traces back to one of Helen’s known shell accounts.”
Charles leaned forward. “They’re targeting your integrity again, James. This time with international implications. If this goes public, it could trigger a full-scale investigation even if the claims are false.”
James took a deep breath. “Then it’s time to activate Project Aegis.”
Rita’s eyes widened. “You mean?”
“Yes,” James affirmed. “Full legal exposure. Every executive, every document, every deal for the last five years. We publish it ourselves before they can twist it.”
Charles nodded slowly, admiration gleaming in his eyes. “You're not just playing defense anymore.”
“No,” James said, his voice resolute. “I’m done playing. It’s time they learn integrity is not a weakness. It’s my greatest strength.”
That same night, Helen and Mark received a notification that sent chills down their spines. Every major news outlet was now broadcasting a preemptive report by JP Enterprises: “A Legacy in the Light JP Enterprises Opens Vaults to Public Scrutiny”. The article was followed by interviews with board members, stakeholders, and long-time employees all affirming James’s character and transparency.
Helen clenched her jaw, watching the screen with cold fury. “He’s rewriting the rules…” she muttered.
“No,” Mark whispered. “He’s building a world where we don’t exist.”
In the quiet of his penthouse office, James stood by the tall glass windows, the city’s nightscape shimmering beneath a sky painted in indigo hues. A cup of untouched coffee sat on the mahogany desk behind him. His reflection merged with the sprawling lights of a man once discarded, now the pillar of a corporate empire.
Despite the outward calm, James’s mind churned like a brewing storm. The recent smear campaign, although crushed by his proactive transparency, had planted seeds of uncertainty in some corners of the public. He knew Helen and Mark were far from surrendering. Their strategy had evolved into psychological warfare planting doubt, sowing division, manipulating perception.
“It’s time to start setting traps of our own,” he murmured under his breath.
He turned from the window as Charles entered the room, holding a tablet.
“It’s worse than we anticipated,” Charles began, concerned with furrowing his brow. “They’ve been funneling money through offshore accounts, paying journalists, bloggers, even some minor influencers to perpetuate false narratives. They’re not just trying to ruin your reputation, they're orchestrating a hostile takeover.”
James exhaled, slowly walking to his desk. “Then we play them at their own game but with honor. I want a full audit of every subsidiary tied to Ray Enterprises and Helen’s private ventures. Any shadow move they’ve made, I want it exposed legally, publicly, and without a hint of impropriety.”
Charles gave a resolute nod. “I’ll get our internal compliance team on it tonight.”
Meanwhile, across town, Helen sat before a marble fireplace in her lavish estate, her fingers tapping impatiently against a crystal glass of wine. Mark sat across from her, scrolling through dozens of negative online articles none of which were about James.
“He flipped the story again,” Mark said bitterly. “People are actually praising him for his transparency. Investors are swarming back. Even media outlets we bribed are retracting their pieces just to avoid a lawsuit.”
Helen’s eyes burned with fury. “Then we escalate. If he wants to play hero, we’ll paint him as a fraud who built an empire on stolen foundations. Everyone has a skeleton buried deep. We just need to find his.”
Back at JP Enterprises, James was meeting with Rita and a trusted cybersecurity analyst, a sharp-eyed woman named Lilian.
“We’ve traced an internal breach,” Lilian reported. “One of the forwarded articles that nearly made it to international outlets was leaked from someone inside our media division.”
Rita frowned. “Tracy.”
James nodded slowly. “She’s the thread connecting Mark and Helen’s plots. But she’s not alone. There’s another… more subtle player behind all this. And I intend to flush them out without alerting the rats.”
The next day, James called a confidential press meeting. With calm confidence, he unveiled The Integrity Initiative, a new transparency program offering unprecedented access to the inner workings of JP Enterprises for all stakeholders.
“We’ve built this company on the belief that truth withstands scrutiny,” he said, his voice echoing through the hall. “We have nothing to hide and for those trying to destroy us with lies, we welcome your eyes. Because when the truth stands tall, shadows disappear.”
The speech went viral within hours. Critics became advocates. Doubters became loyalists. And for Mark and Helen, the walls began to close in faster than they expected.
It had been two days since James’s press conference, and the atmosphere in the city’s business sphere had shifted noticeably. Conversations once filled with doubt and suspicion about JP Enterprises now carried admiration and curiosity. The sudden introduction of The Integrity Initiative had stirred an entirely new level of respect for the company and for James as its helmsman.
-
@ a39d19ec:3d88f61e
2025-03-18 17:16:50Nun da das deutsche Bundesregime den Ruin Deutschlands beschlossen hat, der sehr wahrscheinlich mit dem Werkzeug des Geld druckens "finanziert" wird, kamen mir so viele Gedanken zur Geldmengenausweitung, dass ich diese für einmal niedergeschrieben habe.
Die Ausweitung der Geldmenge führt aus klassischer wirtschaftlicher Sicht immer zu Preissteigerungen, weil mehr Geld im Umlauf auf eine begrenzte Menge an Gütern trifft. Dies lässt sich in mehreren Schritten analysieren:
1. Quantitätstheorie des Geldes
Die klassische Gleichung der Quantitätstheorie des Geldes lautet:
M • V = P • Y
wobei:
- M die Geldmenge ist,
- V die Umlaufgeschwindigkeit des Geldes,
- P das Preisniveau,
- Y die reale Wirtschaftsleistung (BIP).Wenn M steigt und V sowie Y konstant bleiben, muss P steigen – also Inflation entstehen.
2. Gütermenge bleibt begrenzt
Die Menge an real produzierten Gütern und Dienstleistungen wächst meist nur langsam im Vergleich zur Ausweitung der Geldmenge. Wenn die Geldmenge schneller steigt als die Produktionsgütermenge, führt dies dazu, dass mehr Geld für die gleiche Menge an Waren zur Verfügung steht – die Preise steigen.
3. Erwartungseffekte und Spekulation
Wenn Unternehmen und Haushalte erwarten, dass mehr Geld im Umlauf ist, da eine zentrale Planung es so wollte, können sie steigende Preise antizipieren. Unternehmen erhöhen ihre Preise vorab, und Arbeitnehmer fordern höhere Löhne. Dies kann eine sich selbst verstärkende Spirale auslösen.
4. Internationale Perspektive
Eine erhöhte Geldmenge kann die Währung abwerten, wenn andere Länder ihre Geldpolitik stabil halten. Eine schwächere Währung macht Importe teurer, was wiederum Preissteigerungen antreibt.
5. Kritik an der reinen Geldmengen-Theorie
Der Vollständigkeit halber muss erwähnt werden, dass die meisten modernen Ökonomen im Staatsauftrag argumentieren, dass Inflation nicht nur von der Geldmenge abhängt, sondern auch von der Nachfrage nach Geld (z. B. in einer Wirtschaftskrise). Dennoch zeigt die historische Erfahrung, dass eine unkontrollierte Geldmengenausweitung langfristig immer zu Preissteigerungen führt, wie etwa in der Hyperinflation der Weimarer Republik oder in Simbabwe.
-
@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-03-18 14:43:08Warning: This piece contains a conversation about difficult topics. Please proceed with caution.
TL;DR please educate your children about online safety.
Julian Assange wrote in his 2012 book Cypherpunks, “This book is not a manifesto. There isn’t time for that. This book is a warning.” I read it a few times over the past summer. Those opening lines definitely stood out to me. I wish we had listened back then. He saw something about the internet that few had the ability to see. There are some individuals who are so close to a topic that when they speak, it’s difficult for others who aren’t steeped in it to visualize what they’re talking about. I didn’t read the book until more recently. If I had read it when it came out, it probably would have sounded like an unknown foreign language to me. Today it makes more sense.
This isn’t a manifesto. This isn’t a book. There is no time for that. It’s a warning and a possible solution from a desperate and determined survivor advocate who has been pulling and unraveling a thread for a few years. At times, I feel too close to this topic to make any sense trying to convey my pathway to my conclusions or thoughts to the general public. My hope is that if nothing else, I can convey my sense of urgency while writing this. This piece is a watchman’s warning.
When a child steps online, they are walking into a new world. A new reality. When you hand a child the internet, you are handing them possibilities—good, bad, and ugly. This is a conversation about lowering the potential of negative outcomes of stepping into that new world and how I came to these conclusions. I constantly compare the internet to the road. You wouldn’t let a young child run out into the road with no guidance or safety precautions. When you hand a child the internet without any type of guidance or safety measures, you are allowing them to play in rush hour, oncoming traffic. “Look left, look right for cars before crossing.” We almost all have been taught that as children. What are we taught as humans about safety before stepping into a completely different reality like the internet? Very little.
I could never really figure out why many folks in tech, privacy rights activists, and hackers seemed so cold to me while talking about online child sexual exploitation. I always figured that as a survivor advocate for those affected by these crimes, that specific, skilled group of individuals would be very welcoming and easy to talk to about such serious topics. I actually had one hacker laugh in my face when I brought it up while I was looking for answers. I thought maybe this individual thought I was accusing them of something I wasn’t, so I felt bad for asking. I was constantly extremely disappointed and would ask myself, “Why don’t they care? What could I say to make them care more? What could I say to make them understand the crisis and the level of suffering that happens as a result of the problem?”
I have been serving minor survivors of online child sexual exploitation for years. My first case serving a survivor of this specific crime was in 2018—a 13-year-old girl sexually exploited by a serial predator on Snapchat. That was my first glimpse into this side of the internet. I won a national award for serving the minor survivors of Twitter in 2023, but I had been working on that specific project for a few years. I was nominated by a lawyer representing two survivors in a legal battle against the platform. I’ve never really spoken about this before, but at the time it was a choice for me between fighting Snapchat or Twitter. I chose Twitter—or rather, Twitter chose me. I heard about the story of John Doe #1 and John Doe #2, and I was so unbelievably broken over it that I went to war for multiple years. I was and still am royally pissed about that case. As far as I was concerned, the John Doe #1 case proved that whatever was going on with corporate tech social media was so out of control that I didn’t have time to wait, so I got to work. It was reading the messages that John Doe #1 sent to Twitter begging them to remove his sexual exploitation that broke me. He was a child begging adults to do something. A passion for justice and protecting kids makes you do wild things. I was desperate to find answers about what happened and searched for solutions. In the end, the platform Twitter was purchased. During the acquisition, I just asked Mr. Musk nicely to prioritize the issue of detection and removal of child sexual exploitation without violating digital privacy rights or eroding end-to-end encryption. Elon thanked me multiple times during the acquisition, made some changes, and I was thanked by others on the survivors’ side as well.
I still feel that even with the progress made, I really just scratched the surface with Twitter, now X. I left that passion project when I did for a few reasons. I wanted to give new leadership time to tackle the issue. Elon Musk made big promises that I knew would take a while to fulfill, but mostly I had been watching global legislation transpire around the issue, and frankly, the governments are willing to go much further with X and the rest of corporate tech than I ever would. My work begging Twitter to make changes with easier reporting of content, detection, and removal of child sexual exploitation material—without violating privacy rights or eroding end-to-end encryption—and advocating for the minor survivors of the platform went as far as my principles would have allowed. I’m grateful for that experience. I was still left with a nagging question: “How did things get so bad with Twitter where the John Doe #1 and John Doe #2 case was able to happen in the first place?” I decided to keep looking for answers. I decided to keep pulling the thread.
I never worked for Twitter. This is often confusing for folks. I will say that despite being disappointed in the platform’s leadership at times, I loved Twitter. I saw and still see its value. I definitely love the survivors of the platform, but I also loved the platform. I was a champion of the platform’s ability to give folks from virtually around the globe an opportunity to speak and be heard.
I want to be clear that John Doe #1 really is my why. He is the inspiration. I am writing this because of him. He represents so many globally, and I’m still inspired by his bravery. One child’s voice begging adults to do something—I’m an adult, I heard him. I’d go to war a thousand more lifetimes for that young man, and I don’t even know his name. Fighting has been personally dark at times; I’m not even going to try to sugarcoat it, but it has been worth it.
The data surrounding the very real crime of online child sexual exploitation is available to the public online at any time for anyone to see. I’d encourage you to go look at the data for yourself. I believe in encouraging folks to check multiple sources so that you understand the full picture. If you are uncomfortable just searching around the internet for information about this topic, use the terms “CSAM,” “CSEM,” “SG-CSEM,” or “AI Generated CSAM.” The numbers don’t lie—it’s a nightmare that’s out of control. It’s a big business. The demand is high, and unfortunately, business is booming. Organizations collect the data, tech companies often post their data, governments report frequently, and the corporate press has covered a decent portion of the conversation, so I’m sure you can find a source that you trust.
Technology is changing rapidly, which is great for innovation as a whole but horrible for the crime of online child sexual exploitation. Those wishing to exploit the vulnerable seem to be adapting to each technological change with ease. The governments are so far behind with tackling these issues that as I’m typing this, it’s borderline irrelevant to even include them while speaking about the crime or potential solutions. Technology is changing too rapidly, and their old, broken systems can’t even dare to keep up. Think of it like the governments’ “War on Drugs.” Drugs won. In this case as well, the governments are not winning. The governments are talking about maybe having a meeting on potentially maybe having legislation around the crimes. The time to have that meeting would have been many years ago. I’m not advocating for governments to legislate our way out of this. I’m on the side of educating and innovating our way out of this.
I have been clear while advocating for the minor survivors of corporate tech platforms that I would not advocate for any solution to the crime that would violate digital privacy rights or erode end-to-end encryption. That has been a personal moral position that I was unwilling to budge on. This is an extremely unpopular and borderline nonexistent position in the anti-human trafficking movement and online child protection space. I’m often fearful that I’m wrong about this. I have always thought that a better pathway forward would have been to incentivize innovation for detection and removal of content. I had no previous exposure to privacy rights activists or Cypherpunks—actually, I came to that conclusion by listening to the voices of MENA region political dissidents and human rights activists. After developing relationships with human rights activists from around the globe, I realized how important privacy rights and encryption are for those who need it most globally. I was simply unwilling to give more power, control, and opportunities for mass surveillance to big abusers like governments wishing to enslave entire nations and untrustworthy corporate tech companies to potentially end some portion of abuses online. On top of all of it, it has been clear to me for years that all potential solutions outside of violating digital privacy rights to detect and remove child sexual exploitation online have not yet been explored aggressively. I’ve been disappointed that there hasn’t been more of a conversation around preventing the crime from happening in the first place.
What has been tried is mass surveillance. In China, they are currently under mass surveillance both online and offline, and their behaviors are attached to a social credit score. Unfortunately, even on state-run and controlled social media platforms, they still have child sexual exploitation and abuse imagery pop up along with other crimes and human rights violations. They also have a thriving black market online due to the oppression from the state. In other words, even an entire loss of freedom and privacy cannot end the sexual exploitation of children online. It’s been tried. There is no reason to repeat this method.
It took me an embarrassingly long time to figure out why I always felt a slight coldness from those in tech and privacy-minded individuals about the topic of child sexual exploitation online. I didn’t have any clue about the “Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse.” This is a term coined by Timothy C. May in 1988. I would have been a child myself when he first said it. I actually laughed at myself when I heard the phrase for the first time. I finally got it. The Cypherpunks weren’t wrong about that topic. They were so spot on that it is borderline uncomfortable. I was mad at first that they knew that early during the birth of the internet that this issue would arise and didn’t address it. Then I got over it because I realized that it wasn’t their job. Their job was—is—to write code. Their job wasn’t to be involved and loving parents or survivor advocates. Their job wasn’t to educate children on internet safety or raise awareness; their job was to write code.
They knew that child sexual abuse material would be shared on the internet. They said what would happen—not in a gleeful way, but a prediction. Then it happened.
I equate it now to a concrete company laying down a road. As you’re pouring the concrete, you can say to yourself, “A terrorist might travel down this road to go kill many, and on the flip side, a beautiful child can be born in an ambulance on this road.” Who or what travels down the road is not their responsibility—they are just supposed to lay the concrete. I’d never go to a concrete pourer and ask them to solve terrorism that travels down roads. Under the current system, law enforcement should stop terrorists before they even make it to the road. The solution to this specific problem is not to treat everyone on the road like a terrorist or to not build the road.
So I understand the perceived coldness from those in tech. Not only was it not their job, but bringing up the topic was seen as the equivalent of asking a free person if they wanted to discuss one of the four topics—child abusers, terrorists, drug dealers, intellectual property pirates, etc.—that would usher in digital authoritarianism for all who are online globally.
Privacy rights advocates and groups have put up a good fight. They stood by their principles. Unfortunately, when it comes to corporate tech, I believe that the issue of privacy is almost a complete lost cause at this point. It’s still worth pushing back, but ultimately, it is a losing battle—a ticking time bomb.
I do think that corporate tech providers could have slowed down the inevitable loss of privacy at the hands of the state by prioritizing the detection and removal of CSAM when they all started online. I believe it would have bought some time, fewer would have been traumatized by that specific crime, and I do believe that it could have slowed down the demand for content. If I think too much about that, I’ll go insane, so I try to push the “if maybes” aside, but never knowing if it could have been handled differently will forever haunt me. At night when it’s quiet, I wonder what I would have done differently if given the opportunity. I’ll probably never know how much corporate tech knew and ignored in the hopes that it would go away while the problem continued to get worse. They had different priorities. The most voiceless and vulnerable exploited on corporate tech never had much of a voice, so corporate tech providers didn’t receive very much pushback.
Now I’m about to say something really wild, and you can call me whatever you want to call me, but I’m going to say what I believe to be true. I believe that the governments are either so incompetent that they allowed the proliferation of CSAM online, or they knowingly allowed the problem to fester long enough to have an excuse to violate privacy rights and erode end-to-end encryption. The US government could have seized the corporate tech providers over CSAM, but I believe that they were so useful as a propaganda arm for the regimes that they allowed them to continue virtually unscathed.
That season is done now, and the governments are making the issue a priority. It will come at a high cost. Privacy on corporate tech providers is virtually done as I’m typing this. It feels like a death rattle. I’m not particularly sure that we had much digital privacy to begin with, but the illusion of a veil of privacy feels gone.
To make matters slightly more complex, it would be hard to convince me that once AI really gets going, digital privacy will exist at all.
I believe that there should be a conversation shift to preserving freedoms and human rights in a post-privacy society.
I don’t want to get locked up because AI predicted a nasty post online from me about the government. I’m not a doomer about AI—I’m just going to roll with it personally. I’m looking forward to the positive changes that will be brought forth by AI. I see it as inevitable. A bit of privacy was helpful while it lasted. Please keep fighting to preserve what is left of privacy either way because I could be wrong about all of this.
On the topic of AI, the addition of AI to the horrific crime of child sexual abuse material and child sexual exploitation in multiple ways so far has been devastating. It’s currently out of control. The genie is out of the bottle. I am hopeful that innovation will get us humans out of this, but I’m not sure how or how long it will take. We must be extremely cautious around AI legislation. It should not be illegal to innovate even if some bad comes with the good. I don’t trust that the governments are equipped to decide the best pathway forward for AI. Source: the entire history of the government.
I have been personally negatively impacted by AI-generated content. Every few days, I get another alert that I’m featured again in what’s called “deep fake pornography” without my consent. I’m not happy about it, but what pains me the most is the thought that for a period of time down the road, many globally will experience what myself and others are experiencing now by being digitally sexually abused in this way. If you have ever had your picture taken and posted online, you are also at risk of being exploited in this way. Your child’s image can be used as well, unfortunately, and this is just the beginning of this particular nightmare. It will move to more realistic interpretations of sexual behaviors as technology improves. I have no brave words of wisdom about how to deal with that emotionally. I do have hope that innovation will save the day around this specific issue. I’m nervous that everyone online will have to ID verify due to this issue. I see that as one possible outcome that could help to prevent one problem but inadvertently cause more problems, especially for those living under authoritarian regimes or anyone who needs to remain anonymous online. A zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) would probably be the best solution to these issues. There are some survivors of violence and/or sexual trauma who need to remain anonymous online for various reasons. There are survivor stories available online of those who have been abused in this way. I’d encourage you seek out and listen to their stories.
There have been periods of time recently where I hesitate to say anything at all because more than likely AI will cover most of my concerns about education, awareness, prevention, detection, and removal of child sexual exploitation online, etc.
Unfortunately, some of the most pressing issues we’ve seen online over the last few years come in the form of “sextortion.” Self-generated child sexual exploitation (SG-CSEM) numbers are continuing to be terrifying. I’d strongly encourage that you look into sextortion data. AI + sextortion is also a huge concern. The perpetrators are using the non-sexually explicit images of children and putting their likeness on AI-generated child sexual exploitation content and extorting money, more imagery, or both from minors online. It’s like a million nightmares wrapped into one. The wild part is that these issues will only get more pervasive because technology is harnessed to perpetuate horror at a scale unimaginable to a human mind.
Even if you banned phones and the internet or tried to prevent children from accessing the internet, it wouldn’t solve it. Child sexual exploitation will still be with us until as a society we start to prevent the crime before it happens. That is the only human way out right now.
There is no reset button on the internet, but if I could go back, I’d tell survivor advocates to heed the warnings of the early internet builders and to start education and awareness campaigns designed to prevent as much online child sexual exploitation as possible. The internet and technology moved quickly, and I don’t believe that society ever really caught up. We live in a world where a child can be groomed by a predator in their own home while sitting on a couch next to their parents watching TV. We weren’t ready as a species to tackle the fast-paced algorithms and dangers online. It happened too quickly for parents to catch up. How can you parent for the ever-changing digital world unless you are constantly aware of the dangers?
I don’t think that the internet is inherently bad. I believe that it can be a powerful tool for freedom and resistance. I’ve spoken a lot about the bad online, but there is beauty as well. We often discuss how victims and survivors are abused online; we rarely discuss the fact that countless survivors around the globe have been able to share their experiences, strength, hope, as well as provide resources to the vulnerable. I do question if giving any government or tech company access to censorship, surveillance, etc., online in the name of serving survivors might not actually impact a portion of survivors negatively. There are a fair amount of survivors with powerful abusers protected by governments and the corporate press. If a survivor cannot speak to the press about their abuse, the only place they can go is online, directly or indirectly through an independent journalist who also risks being censored. This scenario isn’t hard to imagine—it already happened in China. During #MeToo, a survivor in China wanted to post their story. The government censored the post, so the survivor put their story on the blockchain. I’m excited that the survivor was creative and brave, but it’s terrifying to think that we live in a world where that situation is a necessity.
I believe that the future for many survivors sharing their stories globally will be on completely censorship-resistant and decentralized protocols. This thought in particular gives me hope. When we listen to the experiences of a diverse group of survivors, we can start to understand potential solutions to preventing the crimes from happening in the first place.
My heart is broken over the gut-wrenching stories of survivors sexually exploited online. Every time I hear the story of a survivor, I do think to myself quietly, “What could have prevented this from happening in the first place?” My heart is with survivors.
My head, on the other hand, is full of the understanding that the internet should remain free. The free flow of information should not be stopped. My mind is with the innocent citizens around the globe that deserve freedom both online and offline.
The problem is that governments don’t only want to censor illegal content that violates human rights—they create legislation that is so broad that it can impact speech and privacy of all. “Don’t you care about the kids?” Yes, I do. I do so much that I’m invested in finding solutions. I also care about all citizens around the globe that deserve an opportunity to live free from a mass surveillance society. If terrorism happens online, I should not be punished by losing my freedom. If drugs are sold online, I should not be punished. I’m not an abuser, I’m not a terrorist, and I don’t engage in illegal behaviors. I refuse to lose freedom because of others’ bad behaviors online.
I want to be clear that on a long enough timeline, the governments will decide that they can be better parents/caregivers than you can if something isn’t done to stop minors from being sexually exploited online. The price will be a complete loss of anonymity, privacy, free speech, and freedom of religion online. I find it rather insulting that governments think they’re better equipped to raise children than parents and caretakers.
So we can’t go backwards—all that we can do is go forward. Those who want to have freedom will find technology to facilitate their liberation. This will lead many over time to decentralized and open protocols. So as far as I’m concerned, this does solve a few of my worries—those who need, want, and deserve to speak freely online will have the opportunity in most countries—but what about online child sexual exploitation?
When I popped up around the decentralized space, I was met with the fear of censorship. I’m not here to censor you. I don’t write code. I couldn’t censor anyone or any piece of content even if I wanted to across the internet, no matter how depraved. I don’t have the skills to do that.
I’m here to start a conversation. Freedom comes at a cost. You must always fight for and protect your freedom. I can’t speak about protecting yourself from all of the Four Horsemen because I simply don’t know the topics well enough, but I can speak about this one topic.
If there was a shortcut to ending online child sexual exploitation, I would have found it by now. There isn’t one right now. I believe that education is the only pathway forward to preventing the crime of online child sexual exploitation for future generations.
I propose a yearly education course for every child of all school ages, taught as a standard part of the curriculum. Ideally, parents/caregivers would be involved in the education/learning process.
Course: - The creation of the internet and computers - The fight for cryptography - The tech supply chain from the ground up (example: human rights violations in the supply chain) - Corporate tech - Freedom tech - Data privacy - Digital privacy rights - AI (history-current) - Online safety (predators, scams, catfishing, extortion) - Bitcoin - Laws - How to deal with online hate and harassment - Information on who to contact if you are being abused online or offline - Algorithms - How to seek out the truth about news, etc., online
The parents/caregivers, homeschoolers, unschoolers, and those working to create decentralized parallel societies have been an inspiration while writing this, but my hope is that all children would learn this course, even in government ran schools. Ideally, parents would teach this to their own children.
The decentralized space doesn’t want child sexual exploitation to thrive. Here’s the deal: there has to be a strong prevention effort in order to protect the next generation. The internet isn’t going anywhere, predators aren’t going anywhere, and I’m not down to let anyone have the opportunity to prove that there is a need for more government. I don’t believe that the government should act as parents. The governments have had a chance to attempt to stop online child sexual exploitation, and they didn’t do it. Can we try a different pathway forward?
I’d like to put myself out of a job. I don’t want to ever hear another story like John Doe #1 ever again. This will require work. I’ve often called online child sexual exploitation the lynchpin for the internet. It’s time to arm generations of children with knowledge and tools. I can’t do this alone.
Individuals have fought so that I could have freedom online. I want to fight to protect it. I don’t want child predators to give the government any opportunity to take away freedom. Decentralized spaces are as close to a reset as we’ll get with the opportunity to do it right from the start. Start the youth off correctly by preventing potential hazards to the best of your ability.
The good news is anyone can work on this! I’d encourage you to take it and run with it. I added the additional education about the history of the internet to make the course more educational and fun. Instead of cleaning up generations of destroyed lives due to online sexual exploitation, perhaps this could inspire generations of those who will build our futures. Perhaps if the youth is armed with knowledge, they can create more tools to prevent the crime.
This one solution that I’m suggesting can be done on an individual level or on a larger scale. It should be adjusted depending on age, learning style, etc. It should be fun and playful.
This solution does not address abuse in the home or some of the root causes of offline child sexual exploitation. My hope is that it could lead to some survivors experiencing abuse in the home an opportunity to disclose with a trusted adult. The purpose for this solution is to prevent the crime of online child sexual exploitation before it occurs and to arm the youth with the tools to contact safe adults if and when it happens.
In closing, I went to hell a few times so that you didn’t have to. I spoke to the mothers of survivors of minors sexually exploited online—their tears could fill rivers. I’ve spoken with political dissidents who yearned to be free from authoritarian surveillance states. The only balance that I’ve found is freedom online for citizens around the globe and prevention from the dangers of that for the youth. Don’t slow down innovation and freedom. Educate, prepare, adapt, and look for solutions.
I’m not perfect and I’m sure that there are errors in this piece. I hope that you find them and it starts a conversation.
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-03-15 23:00:40I want to see Nostr succeed. If you can think of a way I can help make that happen, I’m open to it. I’d like your suggestions.
My schedule’s shifting soon, and I could volunteer a few hours a week to a Nostr project. I won’t have more total time, but how I use it will change.
Why help? I care about freedom. Nostr’s one of the most powerful freedom tools I’ve seen in my lifetime. If I believe that, I should act on it.
I don’t care about money or sats. I’m not rich, I don’t have extra cash. That doesn’t drive me—freedom does. I’m volunteering, not asking for pay.
I’m not here for clout. I’ve had enough spotlight in my life; it doesn’t move me. If I wanted clout, I’d be on Twitter dropping basic takes. Clout’s easy. Freedom’s hard. I’d rather help anonymously. No speaking at events—small meetups are cool for the vibe, but big conferences? Not my thing. I’ll never hit a huge Bitcoin conference. It’s just not my scene.
That said, I could be convinced to step up if it’d really boost Nostr—as long as it’s legal and gets results.
In this space, I’d watch for social engineering. I watch out for it. I’m not here to make friends, just to help. No shade—you all seem great—but I’ve got a full life and awesome friends irl. I don’t need your crew or to be online cool. Connect anonymously if you want; I’d encourage it.
I’m sick of watching other social media alternatives grow while Nostr kinda stalls. I could trash-talk, but I’d rather do something useful.
Skills? I’m good at spotting social media problems and finding possible solutions. I won’t overhype myself—that’s weird—but if you’re responding, you probably see something in me. Perhaps you see something that I don’t see in myself.
If you need help now or later with Nostr projects, reach out. Nostr only—nothing else. Anonymous contact’s fine. Even just a suggestion on how I can pitch in, no project attached, works too. 💜
Creeps or harassment will get blocked or I’ll nuke my simplex code if it becomes a problem.
https://simplex.chat/contact#/?v=2-4&smp=smp%3A%2F%2FSkIkI6EPd2D63F4xFKfHk7I1UGZVNn6k1QWZ5rcyr6w%3D%40smp9.simplex.im%2FbI99B3KuYduH8jDr9ZwyhcSxm2UuR7j0%23%2F%3Fv%3D1-2%26dh%3DMCowBQYDK2VuAyEAS9C-zPzqW41PKySfPCEizcXb1QCus6AyDkTTjfyMIRM%253D%26srv%3Djssqzccmrcws6bhmn77vgmhfjmhwlyr3u7puw4erkyoosywgl67slqqd.onion
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@ 9c9d2765:16f8c2c2
2025-05-25 08:14:32CHAPTER TWENTY SEVEN “We’re finished,” she snapped, pacing furiously. “They’ve locked every door. We’ve been blacklisted by every reputable firm in the city. No one's taking our calls, and now the tax authorities are sniffing around!”
Mark stood slowly, still holding the glass. “It’s all because of him,” he growled. “James. That street rat turned king. He’s poisoned the whole industry against us.”
Helen scoffed. “He didn’t poison it. He conquered it. You and I? We underestimated him. We saw rags and never imagined the gold beneath.”
There was a moment of raw, uncomfortable silence.
“And now,” she added bitterly, “he owns not just the Ray company but the story. The people adore him. Every misstep we make adds to his legend.”
Mark turned away, the fury in his chest simmering just below the surface. “Then maybe it’s time we stop playing by his rules.”
Helen raised an eyebrow. “What are you thinking?”
“Something permanent,” he said coldly. “Something that’ll make the city question his legacy. We won’t touch him directly. But we’ll dismantle everything around him his alliances, his investors, his trust.”
Meanwhile, at JP Enterprises, James was meeting with his board members. The mood was triumphant. Contracts were flowing in from across the nation. Investors from overseas were lining up to collaborate. JP Enterprises was no longer a local giant, it was becoming a global force.
As the board meeting wrapped up, Charles approached James with a discreet file.
“We’ve uncovered something,” he said in a hushed tone. “Helen and Mark have begun contacting shell companies. They’re orchestrating something through offshore accounts. It’s not clear yet, but they’re moving funds and people.”
James took the file, flipping through the pages with a calm intensity. “They never learn,” he murmured. “Desperation is a dangerous motivator.”
Charles nodded. “Shall we alert the authorities?”
James paused. “Not yet. Let them think they’re getting away with it. Let them build the stage. And when the curtains rise, we’ll pull the spotlight on them ourselves.”
Outside, the sky turned amber as dusk crept over the horizon. Somewhere in the city, Mark and Helen were plotting their next move. But in the heart of JP Enterprises, James was already five steps ahead.
The night veiled the city in a silvery calm, but within the walls of an abandoned warehouse at the edge of town, shadows danced beneath flickering fluorescent lights. Mark and Helen stood amidst crates of outdated office furniture and rusted metal, far removed from the lavish boardrooms they once commanded. Their pride, now fragments, echoed in every creak of the floor beneath them.
“We’ve traced every name that still owes us favors,” Mark said, unfolding a large sheet of paper across a makeshift table. “This is our web. Media contacts. Shell consultants. A few digital mercenaries.”
Helen leaned over the table, eyes scanning the diagram. “It’s not about hitting him,” she whispered. “It’s about bleeding his legacy. Bit by bit. We drown him in whispers, not weapons.”
Their plan was insidious smear campaigns seeded in anonymous blogs, fabricated audits from paid ‘inspectors,’ leaks of doctored company records, and the reawakening of James’s past, even if the ghosts had already been proven false. They would question every victory he had, casting shadows over every triumph. If they couldn’t win, they would ruin the game.
Meanwhile, back at JP Enterprises, James sat in his office high above the city. The glass walls gave him a breathtaking view, but his gaze was introspective. His mind wandered through recent events the betrayal, the accusations, the painful resurgence of a forgotten past. But what stood out most was not the malice of others. It was how he had endured.
Charles entered the office, a slight knock preceding him. “We’ve secured the last two tech firms you were eyeing. Their CEOs are prepared to sign exclusive partnerships. Also, the board wants to recognize you officially as Global CEO during next month’s summit.”
James smiled faintly, though his eyes retained a solemn hue. “Good. But there’s something more important.” He turned his laptop around, displaying a series of anonymous online threads riddled with false claims and slander.
“They’ve begun,” he said softly. “Helen and Mark are orchestrating a campaign to rot our foundation from the inside out.”
Charles's expression darkened. “Should I initiate a counter-sweep?”
James shook his head. “No. We don’t fight shadows with swords. We fight them with light.” He paused, then added, “I want full transparency reports across every department. I want our investors to see our books before they ask. I want our work to speak so loudly, their lies get drowned out.”
In a conference the following morning, James stood before hundreds of stakeholders and partners, unveiling a revolutionary corporate transparency portal. Real-time audits, project status updates, and salary distributions were now accessible to all registered partners. The press called it “the death of corporate secrecy.”
While Mark and Helen were weaving illusions, James was showcasing reality.
Yet in the shadows, Helen grew more frustrated.
“He’s not cracking!” she shouted, hurling a tablet against the floor. “How is he still standing?”
Mark sat, quiet for once, rubbing his temples. “Because he’s not the man we knew. He’s not the beggar we mocked. He’s become… untouchable.”
Helen turned, her eyes blazing. “Then we don’t touch him. We find someone he cares about. We make him feel vulnerable again.”
Mark didn’t speak, but the silence between them felt like a pact being sealed.
Back at JP Enterprises, James met with Rita. Her sharpness and integrity had restored much of the company’s cultural fabric. He trusted her, more than most. And as they walked the office floors together, they discussed not just projects, but the future that would soon test every bond, every alliance.
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@ bc575705:dba3ed39
2025-03-13 05:57:10In our hyper-connected age, the concept of "Know Your Customer" (KYC) has morphed from a regulatory necessity into a pervasive surveillance apparatus, subtly eroding our fundamental liberties. While purported to combat financial crime, KYC has become a tool for mass surveillance, data exploitation, and the gradual dismantling of personal privacy. Let’s embark on a comprehensive exploration of this system, exposing its inherent flaws and advocating for a paradigm shift towards decentralized financial sovereignty.
Beyond the Surface: The Intricate Web of KYC Data Collection
KYC transcends mere identity verification; it's a deep dive into the minutiae of our lives. Consider the breadth and depth of data extracted:
Geographic Surveillance: Proof of address requirements delve into historical residency, creating granular maps of our movements. Combined with location data from mobile devices and online activity, this paints a comprehensive picture of our physical presence.
Financial Autopsy: KYC dissects our financial lives with surgical precision. Income sources, asset declarations, and transaction histories are meticulously cataloged. Algorithmic analysis reveals spending habits, investment strategies, and even potential political affiliations.
Behavioral Predictive Modeling: AI algorithms analyze our financial behavior, predicting future actions and preferences. This data is invaluable for targeted advertising, but also for social engineering and political manipulation.
Biometric Invasiveness: Facial recognition, iris scans, and voice analysis create permanent, immutable records of our physical selves. These biometrics are highly sensitive and vulnerable to breaches, potentially leading to identity theft and even physical harm.
Social Network Mapping: KYC extends beyond individuals, mapping our social and professional networks. Institutions analyze our connections, identifying potential risks based on our associations. This has a chilling effect on free association and dissent, as individuals become hesitant to associate with those deemed "risky."
Psychometric Profiling: With the increase of online tests, and the collection of online data, companies and states can build psychometric profiles. These profiles can be used to predict actions, and even manipulate populations.
The Fallacy of Security: KYC's Ineffectiveness and the Rise of the Surveillance State
Despite its claims, KYC fails to effectively combat sophisticated financial crime. Instead, it creates a system of mass surveillance that disproportionately targets law-abiding citizens.
The Scourge of False Positives: Automated KYC systems frequently generate false positives, flagging innocent individuals as potential criminals. This can lead to financial exclusion, reputational damage, and even legal persecution.
A Ticking Time Bomb: Centralized KYC databases are prime targets for hackers, putting vast amounts of sensitive personal information at risk. Data breaches can lead to identity theft, financial fraud, and even physical harm.
The State's Panopticon: KYC empowers governments to monitor the financial activities of their citizens, creating a powerful tool for surveillance and control. This can be used to suppress dissent, target political opponents, and enforce conformity.
The Criminals Advantage: Sophisticated criminals easily bypass KYC using shell companies, money laundering, and other techniques. This makes KYC a system that punishes the innocent, and gives the criminals a false sense of security for the data collected.
Decentralized Alternatives: Reclaiming Financial Sovereignty and Privacy
In the face of this encroaching surveillance state, decentralized technologies offer a path to financial freedom and privacy.
Cryptocurrency | A Bastion of Financial Freedom: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provide censorship-resistant alternatives to traditional financial systems. They empower individuals to transact freely, without the need for intermediaries or government oversight.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) | Democratizing Finance: DeFi platforms offer a range of financial services, including lending, borrowing, and trading, without the need for traditional banks. These platforms are built on blockchain technology, ensuring transparency, security, and accessibility.
Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI) | Empowering Individuals: SSI solutions enable individuals to control their own digital identities, without relying on centralized authorities. This allows for secure and private verification of identity, without the need to share sensitive personal information with every service provider.
Privacy-Enhancing Technologies (PETs) | Shielding Your Data: Technologies like zero-knowledge proofs, homomorphic encryption, and secure multi-party computation can be used to protect personal data while still allowing for necessary verification.
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) | Creating new forms of governance: DAOs provide new ways for groups to organize, and make decisions. They provide a transparent way to pool resources, and make decisions.
A Call to Action: Defending Our Digital Rights and Building a Decentralized Future
We cannot passively accept the erosion of our fundamental freedoms. We must actively defend our digital rights and demand a more just and equitable financial system.
Advocate for Robust Privacy Laws: Demand stronger regulations that limit the collection and use of personal data.
Champion Decentralized Technologies: Support the development and adoption of cryptocurrencies, DeFi platforms, and other decentralized solutions.
Educate and Empower: Raise awareness about the dangers of KYC and state surveillance.
Cultivate Critical Thinking: Question the narratives presented by governments and corporations.
Build Decentralized Communities: Join and support decentralized communities that are working to build a more free and open financial system.
Demand transparency from all data collection: Insist that all data collection is open, and that there are strong penalties for those that misuse data.
The fight for financial freedom is a fight for human freedom. Let us stand together and reclaim our digital sovereignty.
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@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-03-12 19:31:16Micro with its operands and keybindings.
Micro is a modern, user-friendly text editor designed for the terminal. It offers extensive features, including mouse support, multiple cursors, syntax highlighting, and an intuitive command bar.
1. Command Bar
- Open it with
Ctrl-e
- Supports shell-like argument parsing (single/double quotes, escaping)
- No environment variable expansion
2. Commands Overview
Commands are entered using
Ctrl-e
followed by the command.File Management
save ['filename']
→ Save the current buffer (or "Save As" if a filename is given)quit
→ Exit Microopen 'filename'
→ Open a filereopen
→ Reload the current file from diskpwd
→ Print the current working directorycd 'path'
→ Change the working directory
Navigation
goto 'line[:col]'
→ Move to an absolute line and columnjump 'line[:col]'
→ Move relative to the current line
Editing
replace 'search' 'value' ['flags']
→ Replace text-a
→ Replace all occurrences-l
→ Literal search (no regex)replaceall 'search' 'value'
→ Replace all without confirmationtextfilter 'sh-command'
→ Pipe selected text through a shell command and replace it
Splitting and Tabs
vsplit ['filename']
→ Open a vertical splithsplit ['filename']
→ Open a horizontal splittab ['filename']
→ Open a file in a new tabtabswitch 'tab'
→ Switch between tabstabmove '[-+]n'
→ Move tab position
Configuration
set 'option' 'value'
→ Set a global optionsetlocal 'option' 'value'
→ Set an option for the current buffershow 'option'
→ Show the current value of an optionreset 'option'
→ Reset an option to its default
Plugins
plugin list
→ List installed pluginsplugin install 'pl'
→ Install a pluginplugin remove 'pl'
→ Remove a pluginplugin update ['pl']
→ Update a pluginplugin search 'pl'
→ Search for plugins
Miscellaneous
run 'sh-command'
→ Run a shell command in the backgroundlog
→ View debug messagesreload
→ Reload all runtime files (settings, keybindings, syntax files, etc.)raw
→ Debug terminal escape sequencesshowkey 'key'
→ Show what action is bound to a keyterm ['exec']
→ Open a terminal emulator running a specific commandlint
→ Lint the current filecomment
→ Toggle comments on a selected line or block
3. Keybindings Overview
| Action | Keybinding | |------------------|--------------| | Navigation | | | Move cursor left |
←
orh
| | Move cursor right |→
orl
| | Move cursor up |↑
ork
| | Move cursor down |↓
orj
| | Move to start of line |Home
| | Move to end of line |End
| | Move to start of file |Ctrl-Home
| | Move to end of file |Ctrl-End
| | Move by word left |Ctrl-←
orCtrl-b
| | Move by word right |Ctrl-→
orCtrl-f
| | Editing | | | Copy |Ctrl-c
| | Cut |Ctrl-x
| | Paste |Ctrl-v
| | Undo |Ctrl-z
| | Redo |Ctrl-Shift-z
| | Delete word left |Ctrl-Backspace
| | Delete word right |Ctrl-Delete
| | Splitting & Tabs | | | Open horizontal split |Ctrl-w h
| | Open vertical split |Ctrl-w v
| | Switch tab left |Alt-←
| | Switch tab right |Alt-→
|For more, check the official keybindings:
🔗 Micro Keybindings 🔗Available Here
Final Thoughts
Micro is a powerful text editor for terminal users who want an alternative to Vim or Nano. With an intuitive command bar, extensive customization options, and full plugin support, it offers a lightweight yet feature-rich editing experience. 🚀
- Open it with
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@ cefb08d1:f419beff
2025-05-25 07:39:53https://stacker.news/items/988759
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-03-12 00:40:25Before I saw those X right-wing political “influencers” parading their Epstein binders in that PR stunt, I’d already posted this on Nostr, an open protocol.
“Today, the world’s attention will likely fixate on Epstein, governmental failures in addressing horrific abuse cases, and the influential figures who perpetrate such acts—yet few will center the victims and survivors in the conversation. The survivors of Epstein went to law enforcement and very little happened. The survivors tried to speak to the corporate press and the corporate press knowingly covered for him. In situations like these social media can serve as one of the only ways for a survivor’s voice to be heard.
It’s becoming increasingly evident that the line between centralized corporate social media and the state is razor-thin, if it exists at all. Time and again, the state shields powerful abusers when it’s politically expedient to do so. In this climate, a survivor attempting to expose someone like Epstein on a corporate tech platform faces an uphill battle—there’s no assurance their voice would even break through. Their story wouldn’t truly belong to them; it’d be at the mercy of the platform, subject to deletion at a whim. Nostr, though, offers a lifeline—a censorship-resistant space where survivors can share their truths, no matter how untouchable the abuser might seem. A survivor could remain anonymous here if they took enough steps.
Nostr holds real promise for amplifying survivor voices. And if you’re here daily, tossing out memes, take heart: you’re helping build a foundation for those who desperately need to be heard.“
That post is untouchable—no CEO, company, employee, or government can delete it. Even if I wanted to, I couldn’t take it down myself. The post will outlive me on the protocol.
The cozy alliance between the state and corporate social media hit me hard during that right-wing X “influencer” PR stunt. Elon owns X. Elon’s a special government employee. X pays those influencers to post. We don’t know who else pays them to post. Those influencers are spurred on by both the government and X to manage the Epstein case narrative. It wasn’t survivors standing there, grinning for photos—it was paid influencers, gatekeepers orchestrating yet another chance to re-exploit the already exploited.
The bond between the state and corporate social media is tight. If the other Epsteins out there are ever to be unmasked, I wouldn’t bet on a survivor’s story staying safe with a corporate tech platform, the government, any social media influencer, or mainstream journalist. Right now, only a protocol can hand survivors the power to truly own their narrative.
I don’t have anything against Elon—I’ve actually been a big supporter. I’m just stating it as I see it. X isn’t censorship resistant and they have an algorithm that they choose not the user. Corporate tech platforms like X can be a better fit for some survivors. X has safety tools and content moderation, making it a solid option for certain individuals. Grok can be a big help for survivors looking for resources or support! As a survivor, you know what works best for you, and safety should always come first—keep that front and center.
That said, a protocol is a game-changer for cases where the powerful are likely to censor. During China's # MeToo movement, survivors faced heavy censorship on social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat, where posts about sexual harassment were quickly removed, and hashtags like # MeToo or "woyeshi" were blocked by government and platform filters. To bypass this, activists turned to blockchain technology encoding their stories—like Yue Xin’s open letter about a Peking University case—into transaction metadata. This made the information tamper-proof and publicly accessible, resisting censorship since blockchain data can’t be easily altered or deleted.
I posted this on X 2/28/25. I wanted to try my first long post on a nostr client. The Epstein cover up is ongoing so it’s still relevant, unfortunately.
If you are a survivor or loved one who is reading this and needs support please reach out to: National Sexual Assault Hotline 24/7 https://rainn.org/
Hours: Available 24 hours
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@ 8d34bd24:414be32b
2025-05-25 06:29:21It seems like most Christians today have lost their reverence and awe of God. We’ve attributed God’s awesome creation by the word of His mouth to random chance and a Big Bang. We’ve attributed the many layers of sediment to millions and billions of years of time instead of God’s judgment of evil. We’ve emphasized His love and mercy to the point that we’ve forgotten about His holiness and righteous wrath. We’ve brought God down to our level and made Him either our “buddy” or made Him our magic genie servant, who is just there to answer our every want and whim.
The God of the Bible is a holy and awesome God who should be both loved and feared.
The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge;\ Fools despise wisdom and instruction. (Proverbs 1:7)
The God of the Bible is the Lord of Lords and King of Kings who “… upholds all things by the word of His power. …” (Hebrews 1:3). Yes, God loves us as sons. Yes, God is merciful. Yes, through Jesus we have the blessed opportunity to approach God directly. None of that means we get to treat God like just another friend. We are to approach God with fear and trembling and worship Him in reverence and awe.
Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. (Psalm 2:11)
Part of the problem is that our culture just doesn’t show reverence to authority. It focuses on self and freedom. The whole thought of reverence for authority is incomprehensible for many. Look at this Psalm of worship:
The Lord reigns, let the peoples tremble;\ He is enthroned above the cherubim, let the earth shake!\ The Lord is great in Zion,\ And He is exalted above all the peoples.\ Let them praise Your great and awesome name;\ Holy is He. (Psalm 99:1-3)
This is the way we should view God and the proper attitude for approaching God.
Another issue is that we don’t study what God has done in the past. In the Old Testament, God commanded the Israelites to setup monuments of remembrance and to teach their kids all of the great things God had done for them. When they failed to do so, Israel drifted astray.
You shall teach them to your sons, talking of them when you sit in your house and when you walk along the road and when you lie down and when you rise up. (Deuteronomy 11:19)
God has given us the Bible, His word, so that we can know Him, know His character, and know His great deeds. When we fail to be in His word daily, we can forget (or not even know) the greatness of our God.
Establish Your word to Your servant,\ As that which produces reverence for You. (Psalm 119:38)
Do you love God’s word like this? Do you hunger for God’s word? Do you seek to know everything about God that you can know? When we love someone or something, we want to know everything about it.
Princes persecute me without cause,\ But my heart stands in awe of Your words.\ **I rejoice at Your word,\ As one who finds great spoil. \ (Psalm 119:161-162) {emphasis mine}
In addition to what we can learn about God in the Bible, we also need to remember what God has done in our own lives. We need to dwell on what God has done for us. We can just try to remember. Even better (I’ll admit this is a weakness for me), write down answered prayers, blessings, and other things God has done for you. My son has been writing down one blessing every day for over a year. What an example he is!
After we have thought about what God has done for us and those we care about, we should praise Him for His great works.
Shout joyfully to God, all the earth;\ Sing the glory of His name;\ Make His praise glorious.\ Say to God, “How awesome are Your works!\ Because of the greatness of Your power \ Your enemies will give feigned obedience to You.\ All the earth will worship You,\ And will sing praises to You;\ They will sing praises to Your name.” Selah.\ **Come and see the works of God,\ Who is awesome in His deeds toward the sons of men. \ (Psalm 66:1-5) {emphasis mine}
There is nothing we can do to earn salvation from God, but we should be in awe of what He has done for us leading to submission and obedience in gratitude.
Therefore, since we receive a kingdom which cannot be shaken, let us show gratitude, by which we may offer to God an acceptable service with reverence and awe; for our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29) {emphasis mine}
Are you thankful for your blessings or resentful for what you don’t have? Do you worship God or take things He has provided for granted? Do you tell the world the awesome things God has done for you or do you stay silent? Do you claim to be a Christian, but live a life no different than those around you?
Then the Lord said,
“Because this people draw near with their words\ And honor Me with their lip service,\ But they remove their hearts far from Me,\ And their reverence for Me consists of tradition learned by rote, (Isaiah 29:13)
I hope this passage does not describe your relation ship with our awesome God. He deserves so much more. Instead we should be zealous to praise God and share His goodness with those around us.
Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be troubled, but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; (1 Peter 3:13-15) {emphasis mine}
Did you know that you can even show reverence by your every day work?
By faith Noah, being warned by God about things not yet seen, in reverence prepared an ark for the salvation of his household, by which he condemned the world, and became an heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. (Hebrews 11:7) {emphasis mine}
When Noah stepped out in faith and obedience to God and built the ark as God commanded, despite the fact that the people around him probably thought he was crazy building a boat on dry ground that had never flooded, his work was a kind of reverence to God. Are there areas in your life where you can obey God in reverence to His awesomeness? Do you realize that quality work in obedience to God can be a form of worship?
Just going above and beyond in your job can be a form of worship of God if you are working extra hard to honor Him. Obedience is another form of worship and reverence.
Then Zerubbabel the son of Shealtiel, and Joshua the son of Jehozadak, the high priest, with all the remnant of the people, obeyed the voice of the Lord their God and the words of Haggai the prophet, as the Lord their God had sent him. And the people showed reverence for the Lord. (Haggai 1:12) {emphasis mine}
Too many people have put the word of men (especially scientists) above the word of God and have tried to change the clear meaning of the Bible. I used to think it strange how the Bible goes through the days of creation and ends each day with “and there was evening and there was morning, the xth day.” Since a day has an evening and a morning, that seemed redundant. Why did God speak in this manner? God knew that a day would come when many scientist would try to disprove God and would claim that these days were not 24 hour days, but long ages. When a writer is trying to convey long ages, the writer does not mention evening/morning and doesn’t count the days.1
When we no longer see God as speaking the universe and everything in it into existence, we tend to not see God as an awesome God. We don’t see His power. We don’t see His knowledge. We don’t see His goodness. We also don’t see His authority. Why do we have to obey God? Because He created us and because He upholds us. Without Him we would not exist. Our creator has the authority to command His creation. When we compromise in this area, we lose our submission, our awe, and our reverence. (For more on the subject see my series.) When we believe His great works, especially those spoken of in Genesis 1-11 and in Exodus, we can’t help but be in awe of our God.
For the word of the Lord is upright,\ And all His work is done in faithfulness.\ He loves righteousness and justice;\ The earth is full of the lovingkindness of the Lord.\ By the word of the Lord the heavens were made,\ And by the breath of His mouth all their host.\ He gathers the waters of the sea together as a heap;\ He lays up the deeps in storehouses.\ **Let all the earth fear the Lord;\ Let all the inhabitants of the world stand in awe of Him. \ (Psalm 33:4-8) {emphasis mine}
Remembering God’s great works, we can’t help but worship in awe and reverence.
By awesome deeds You answer us in righteousness, O God of our salvation,\ *You who are the trust of all the ends of the earth* and of the farthest sea;\ Who establishes the mountains by His strength,\ Being girded with might;\ Who stills the roaring of the seas,\ The roaring of their waves,\ And the tumult of the peoples.\ They who dwell in the ends of the earth stand in awe of Your signs;\ You make the dawn and the sunset shout for joy. \ (Psalm 65:5-8) {emphasis mine}
If we truly do have awe and reverence for our God, we should be emboldened to tell those around us of His great works.
I will tell of Your name to my brethren;\ In the midst of the assembly I will praise You.\ You who fear the Lord, praise Him;\ All you descendants of Jacob, glorify Him,\ And stand in awe of Him, all you descendants of Israel. \ (Psalm 22:22-23) {emphasis mine}
May God grant you the wisdom to see His awesomeness and to trust Him, serve Him, obey Him, and worship Him as He so rightly deserves. May you always have a right view of God and a hunger for His word and a personal relationship with Him. To God be the Glory!
Trust Jesus
FYI, these are a few more passages on the subject that are helpful, but didn’t fit in the flow of my post.
Great is the Lord, and highly to be praised,\ And His greatness is unsearchable.\ One generation shall praise Your works to another,\ And shall declare Your mighty acts.\ On the glorious splendor of Your majesty\ And on Your wonderful works, I will meditate.\ Men shall speak of the power of Your awesome acts,\ And I will tell of Your greatness. (Psalm 145:3-6)
The boastful shall not stand before Your eyes;\ You hate all who do iniquity.\ You destroy those who speak falsehood;\ The Lord abhors the man of bloodshed and deceit.\ But as for me, by Your abundant lovingkindness I will enter Your house,\ At Your holy temple I will bow in reverence for You. (Psalm 5:5-7) {emphasis mine}
If you do not listen, and if you do not take it to heart to give honor to My name,” says the Lord of hosts, “then I will send the curse upon you and I will curse your blessings; and indeed, I have cursed them already, because you are not taking it to heart. Behold, I am going to rebuke your offspring, and I will spread refuse on your faces, the refuse of your feasts; and you will be taken away with it. Then you will know that I have sent this commandment to you, that My covenant may continue with Levi,” says the Lord of hosts. “My covenant with him was one of life and peace, and I gave them to him as an object of reverence; so he revered Me and stood in awe of My name. (Malachi 2:2-5) {emphasis mine}
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@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43
2025-03-10 21:56:07Introduction
Throughout human history, the pyramids of Egypt have fascinated scholars, archaeologists, and engineers alike. Traditionally thought of as tombs for pharaohs or religious monuments, alternative theories have speculated that the pyramids may have served advanced technological functions. One such hypothesis suggests that the pyramids acted as large-scale nitrogen fertilizer generators, designed to transform arid desert landscapes into fertile land.
This paper explores the feasibility of such a system by examining how a pyramid could integrate thermal convection, electrolysis, and a self-regulating breeder reactor to sustain nitrogen fixation processes. We will calculate the total power requirements and estimate the longevity of a breeder reactor housed within the structure.
The Pyramid’s Function as a Nitrogen Fertilizer Generator
The hypothesized system involves several key processes:
- Heat and Convection: A fissile material core located in the King's Chamber would generate heat, creating convection currents throughout the pyramid.
- Electrolysis and Hydrogen Production: Water sourced from subterranean channels would undergo electrolysis, splitting into hydrogen and oxygen due to electrical and thermal energy.
- Nitrogen Fixation: The generated hydrogen would react with atmospheric nitrogen (N₂) to produce ammonia (NH₃), a vital component of nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Power Requirements for Continuous Operation
To maintain the pyramid’s core at approximately 450°C, sufficient to drive nitrogen fixation, we estimate a steady-state power requirement of 23.9 gigawatts (GW).
Total Energy Required Over 10,000 Years
Given continuous operation over 10,000 years, the total energy demand can be calculated as:
[ \text{Total time} = 10,000 \times 365.25 \times 24 \times 3600 \text{ seconds} ]
[ \text{Total time} = 3.16 \times 10^{11} \text{ seconds} ]
[ \text{Total energy} = 23.9 \text{ GW} \times 3.16 \times 10^{11} \text{ s} ]
[ \approx 7.55 \times 10^{21} \text{ J} ]
Using a Self-Regulating Breeder Reactor
A breeder reactor could sustain this power requirement by generating more fissile material than it consumes. This reduces the need for frequent refueling.
Pebble Bed Reactor Design
- Self-Regulation: The reactor would use passive cooling and fuel expansion to self-regulate temperature.
- Breeding Process: The reactor would convert thorium-232 into uranium-233, creating a sustainable fuel cycle.
Fissile Material Requirements
Each kilogram of fissile material releases approximately 80 terajoules (TJ) (or 8 × 10^{13} J/kg). Given a 35% efficiency rate, the usable energy per kilogram is:
[ \text{Usable energy per kg} = 8 \times 10^{13} \times 0.35 = 2.8 \times 10^{13} \text{ J/kg} ]
[ \text{Fissile material required} = \frac{7.55 \times 10^{21}}{2.8 \times 10^{13}} ]
[ \approx 2.7 \times 10^{8} \text{ kg} = 270,000 \text{ tons} ]
Impact of a Breeding Ratio
If the reactor operates at a breeding ratio of 1.3, the total fissile material requirement would be reduced to:
[ \frac{270,000}{1.3} \approx 208,000 \text{ tons} ]
Reactor Size and Fuel Replenishment
Assuming a pebble bed reactor housed in the King’s Chamber (~318 cubic meters), the fuel cycle could be sustained with minimal refueling. With a breeding ratio of 1.3, the reactor could theoretically operate for 10,000 years with occasional replenishment of lost material due to inefficiencies.
Managing Scaling in the Steam Generation System
To ensure long-term efficiency, the water supply must be conditioned to prevent mineral scaling. Several strategies could be implemented:
1. Natural Water Softening Using Limestone
- Passing river water through limestone beds could help precipitate out calcium bicarbonate, reducing hardness before entering the steam system.
2. Chemical Additives for Scaling Prevention
- Chelating Agents: Compounds such as citric acid or tannins could be introduced to bind calcium and magnesium ions.
- Phosphate Compounds: These interfere with crystal formation, preventing scale adhesion.
3. Superheating and Pre-Evaporation
- Pre-Evaporation: Water exposed to extreme heat before entering the system would allow minerals to precipitate out before reaching the reactor.
- Superheated Steam: Ensuring only pure vapor enters the steam cycle would prevent mineral buildup.
- Electrolysis of Superheated Steam: Using multi-million volt electrostatic fields to ionize and separate minerals before they enter the steam system.
4. Electrostatic Control for Scaling Mitigation
- The pyramid’s hypothesized high-voltage environment could ionize water molecules, helping to prevent mineral deposits.
Conclusion
If the Great Pyramid were designed as a self-regulating nitrogen fertilizer generator, it would require a continuous 23.9 GW energy supply, which could be met by a breeder reactor housed within its core. With a breeding ratio of 1.3, an initial load of 208,000 tons of fissile material would sustain operations for 10,000 years with minimal refueling.
Additionally, advanced water treatment techniques, including limestone filtration, chemical additives, and electrostatic control, could ensure long-term efficiency by mitigating scaling issues.
While this remains a speculative hypothesis, it presents a fascinating intersection of energy production, water treatment, and environmental engineering as a means to terraform the ancient world.
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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-05-25 06:26:42I dare to claim that the big factor is the absence of an infinite feed design.
Modern social media landscape sucks for a myriad of reasons, but oh boy does the infinite feed take the crapcake. It's not just bad on it's own, it's emblematic of most, if not all other ways social media have deteriorated into an enshitification spiral. Let's see at just three things I hate about it the most.
1) It's addictive: In the race for your attention, every addictive design element helps. But infinite feed is addictive almost by default. Users are expected to pull the figurative lever until they hit a jackpot. Just one more reel, then I'll go to sleep.
2) Autonomy? What's that? You are not the one driving your experience. No. You are just a passenger passively absorbing what the feed feeds you.
3) Echo chambers. The algorithm might be more to blame here, but the infinite feed and it's super-limited exploration options sure don't help. Your feed only goes two ways - into the past and into the comfortable.
And I could go on, and on...
The point it, if the goal of every big tech company is to have us mindlessly and helplessly consume their products, without agency and opposition (and it is $$$), then the infinite feed gets them half-way there.
Let's get rid of it. For the sake of humanity.
Aphantasia [^1]
Version: 1.0.2 Alpha
What is Aphantasia?
I like to call it a social network for graph enthusiasts. It's a place where your thoughts live in time and space, interconnected with others and explorable in a graph view.
The code is open-source and you can take a look at it on GitHub. There you can find more information about contributions, API usage and other details related to the software.
There is also an accompanying youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeLOt-45rJM
[^1]: Aphantasia the software is named after aphantasia the condition - see Wikipedia for more information.
https://stacker.news/items/988754
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@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43
2025-03-09 20:13:44Introduction
Since the mid-1990s, American media has fractured into two distinct and increasingly isolated ecosystems, each with its own Overton window of acceptable discourse. Once upon a time, Americans of different political leanings shared a common set of facts, even if they interpreted them differently. Today, they don’t even agree on what the facts are—or who has the authority to define them.
This divide stems from a deeper philosophical rift in how each side determines truth and legitimacy. The institutional left derives its authority from the expert class—academics, think tanks, scientific consensus, and mainstream media. The populist right, on the other hand, finds its authority in traditional belief systems—religion, historical precedent, and what many call "common sense." As these two moral and epistemological frameworks drift further apart, the result is not just political division but the emergence of two separate cultural nations sharing the same geographic space.
The Battle of Epistemologies: Experts vs. Tradition
The left-leaning camp sees scientific consensus, peer-reviewed research, and institutional expertise as the gold standard of truth. Universities, media organizations, and policy think tanks function as arbiters of knowledge, shaping the moral and political beliefs of those who trust them. From this perspective, governance should be guided by data-driven decisions, often favoring progressive change and bureaucratic administration over democratic populism.
The right-leaning camp is skeptical of these institutions, viewing them as ideologically captured and detached from real-world concerns. Instead, they look to religion, historical wisdom, and traditional social structures as more reliable sources of truth. To them, the "expert class" is not an impartial source of knowledge but a self-reinforcing elite that justifies its own power while dismissing dissenters as uneducated or morally deficient.
This fundamental disagreement over the source of moral and factual authority means that political debates today are rarely about policy alone. They are battles over legitimacy itself. One side sees resistance to climate policies as "anti-science," while the other sees aggressive climate mandates as an elite power grab. One side views traditional gender roles as oppressive, while the other sees rapid changes in gender norms as unnatural and destabilizing. Each group believes the other is not just wrong, but dangerous.
The Consequences of Non-Overlapping Overton Windows
As these worldviews diverge, so do their respective Overton windows—the range of ideas considered acceptable for public discourse. There is little overlap left. What is considered self-evident truth in one camp is often seen as heresy or misinformation in the other. The result is:
- Epistemic Closure – Each side has its own trusted media sources, and cross-exposure is minimal. The left dismisses right-wing media as conspiracy-driven, while the right views mainstream media as corrupt propaganda. Both believe the other is being systematically misled.
- Moralization of Politics – Since truth itself is contested, policy debates become existential battles. Disagreements over issues like immigration, education, or healthcare are no longer just about governance but about moral purity versus moral corruption.
- Cultural and Political Balkanization – Without a shared understanding of reality, compromise becomes impossible. Americans increasingly consume separate news, live in ideologically homogeneous communities, and even speak different political languages.
Conclusion: Two Nations on One Land
A country can survive disagreements, but can it survive when its people no longer share a common source of truth? Historically, such deep societal fractures have led to secession, authoritarianism, or violent conflict. The United States has managed to avoid these extremes so far, but the trendline is clear: as long as each camp continues reinforcing its own epistemology while rejecting the other's as illegitimate, the divide will only grow.
The question is no longer whether America is divided—it is whether these two cultures can continue to coexist under a single political system. Can anything bridge the gap between institutional authority and traditional wisdom? Or are we witnessing the slow but inevitable unraveling of a once-unified nation into two separate moral and epistemic realities?
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@ 21810ca8:f2e8341e
2025-05-25 05:02:33If so, please comment. So I can see if Nostr works for me.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:11Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.
Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.
Anti-CBDC legislation
Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.
Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.
Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites
The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.
The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.
The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.
The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:10A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.
A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.
According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.
Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.
Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.
This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.
Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.
The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:09Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.
According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.
Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.
The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.
Stablecoin regulation
On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.
David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.
Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.
The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ 211c0393:e9262c4d
2025-05-25 04:00:34Original: https://www.yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgguqwf52cyve89xnxc4eh95jklelgw646kkkcdhxm4fp05jvtzdqq2hj6fhtpqkuutdv4xxxazjv9t92atedev45mcwusz
Nihon no kakuseizai Nihon no kakusei-zai bijinesu no yami: Keisatsu, bōryokudan, soshite
chinmoku no kyōhan kankei' no shinsō** 1. Bōryokudan no shihai kōzō (kōteki dēta ni motodzuku) yunyū izon no riyū: Kokunai seizō wa kon'nan (Heisei 6-nen
kakusei-zai genryō kisei-hō' de kisei kyōka)→ myanmā Chūgoku kara no mitsuyu ga shuryū (Kokuren yakubutsu hanzai jimushoWorld Drug Report 2023'). Bōryokudan no rieki-ritsu: 1 Kg-atari shiire kakaku 30 man-en → kouri kakaku 500 man ~ 1000 man-en (Keisatsuchō
yakubutsu jōsei hōkoku-sho' 2022-nen). 2. Keisatsu to bōryokudan nokyōsei kankei' taiho tōkei no fushizen-sa: Zen yakubutsu taiho-sha no 70-pāsento ga tanjun shoji (kōsei Rōdōshō
yakubutsu ran'yō jōkyō' 2023-nen). Mitsuyu soshiki no tekihatsu wa zentai no 5-pāsento-miman (tōkyōchikentokusōbu dēta). Media no kenshō: NHK supesharukakusei-zai sensō'(2021-nen) de shiteki sa reta
mattan yūzā yūsen sōsa' no jittai. 3. Mujun suru genjitsu juyō no fukashi-sei: G 7 de saikō no kakusei-zai kakaku (1 g-atari 3 ~ 7 man-en, Ō kome no 3-bai)→ bōryokudan no bōri (Zaimushōsoshiki hanzai shikin ryūdō chōsa'). Shiyōsha-ritsu wa hikui (jinkō no 0. 2%, Kokuren chōsa) ga, taiho-sha no kahansū o shimeru mujun. 4.
Mitsuyu soshiki taisaku' no genkai kokusai-tekina shippai rei: Mekishiko (karuteru tekihatsu-go mo ichiba kakudai), Ōshū (gōsei yakubutsu no man'en)→ daitai soshiki ga sokuza ni taitō (Eiekonomisuto' 2023-nen 6 tsuki-gō). Nippon'nochiri-teki hande: Kaijō mitsuyu no tekihatsu-ritsu wa 10-pāsento-miman (Kaijōhoanchō hōkoku). 5. Kaiketsusaku no saikō (jijitsu ni motodzuku teian) ADHD chiryō-yaku no gōhō-ka: Amerika seishin'igakukai
ADHD kanja no 60-pāsento ga jiko chiryō de ihō yakubutsu shiyō'(2019-nen kenkyū). Nihonde wa ritarin aderōru kinshi → bōryokudan no ichiba dokusen. Rōdō kankyō kaikaku: Karō-shi rain koe no rōdō-sha 20-pāsento (Kōrōshōrōdō jikan chōsa' 2023-nen)→ kakusei-zai juyō no ichiin. 6. Kokuhatsu no risuku to jōhō-gen tokumei-sei no jūyō-sei: Kako no bōryokudan hōfuku jirei (2018-nen, kokuhatsu kisha e no kyōhaku jiken Mainichishinbun hōdō). Kōteki dēta nomi in'yō: Rei:
Keisatsuchō tōkei'Kokuren hōkoku-sho' nado daisansha kenshō kanōna jōhō. Ketsuron: Henkaku no tame ni wa
jijitsu' no kajika ga hitsuyō `yakubutsu = kojin no dōtokuteki mondai' to iu gensō ga, bōryokudan to fuhai kanryō o ri shite iru. Kokusai dēta to kokunai tōkei no mujun o tsuku koto de, shisutemu no giman o abakeru. Anzen'na kyōyū no tame ni: Kojin tokutei o sake, tokumei purattofōmu (tōa-jō fōramu-tō) de giron. Kōteki kikan no dēta o chokusetsu rinku (rei: Keisatsuchō PDF repōto). Kono bunsho wa, kōhyō sa reta tōkei media hōdō nomi o konkyo to shi, kojin no suisoku o haijo shite imasu. Kyōi o yokeru tame, gutaitekina kojin soshiki no hinan wa itotekini sakete imasu. Show more 1,321 / 5,000 Stimulants in Japan The dark side of the Japanese stimulant drug business:The truth about the police, the yakuza, and their "silent complicity"**
- The control structure of the yakuza (based on public data)
Reasons for dependence on imports: Domestic production is difficult (tightened regulations under the Stimulant Drug Raw Materials Control Act of 1994) → Smuggling from Myanmar and China is the norm (UNODC World Drug Report 2023).
Profit margins for yakuza: Purchase price of 300,000 yen per kg → Retail price of 5 to 10 million yen (National Police Agency Drug Situation Report 2022).
- The "symbiotic relationship" between the police and the yakuza
The unnaturalness of arrest statistics: 70% of all drug arrests are for simple possession (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Drug Abuse Situation 2023). Smuggling organizations account for less than 5% of all arrests (Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Unit data). Media verification: The reality of "end-user priority investigation" pointed out in the NHK special "Stimulant War" (2021).
- Contradictory reality
Invisibility of demand: The highest stimulant drug price in the G7 (30,000 to 70,000 yen per gram, three times that of Europe and the United States) → Excessive profits by organized crime (Ministry of Finance "Survey on Organized Crime Fund Flows"). The contradiction that the user rate is low (0.2% of the population, UN survey), but accounts for the majority of arrests.
- The limits of "countermeasures against smuggling organizations"
International examples of failure: Mexico (market expands even after cartel crackdown), Europe (proliferation of synthetic drugs) → Alternative organizations immediately emerge (UK "The Economist" June 2023 issue). Japan's geographical handicap: The crackdown rate for maritime smuggling is less than 10% (Japan Coast Guard report).
- Rethinking solutions (fact-based proposals)
Legalization of ADHD medications:
American Psychiatric Association: "60% of ADHD patients self-medicate with illegal drugs" (2019 study).
Banning Ritalin and Adderall in Japan → Yakuza monopoly on the market.
Work environment reform:
20% of workers exceed the line of death from overwork (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare "Working Hours Survey" 2023) → One cause of stimulant drug demand.
- Risks of accusation and sources of information
Importance of anonymity:
Past cases of Yakuza retaliation (2018, threat against accusing journalist, reported in the Mainichi Shimbun).
Citing only public data:
Examples: Information that can be verified by a third party, such as "National Police Agency statistics" and "UN reports".
Conclusion: Visualization of "facts" is necessary for change
The illusion that "drugs = individual moral problems" benefits Yakuza and corrupt bureaucrats.
Pointing out the contradictions between international data and domestic statistics can expose the deception of the system.
For safe sharing:
Avoid identifying individuals and discuss on anonymous platforms (such as forums on Tor).
Direct links to data from public organizations (e.g. National Police Agency PDF report).
This document is based solely on published statistics and media reports, and excludes personal speculation.
To avoid threats, we have intentionally avoided blaming specific individuals or organizations. Send feedback
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@ 34ff86e0:dbb6b9fb
2025-05-25 02:36:39test openletter redirection after creation
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@ 2b998b04:86727e47
2025-05-25 03:28:59Turning 60
Ten years ago, I turned 50 with a vague sense that something was off.
I was building things, but they didn’t feel grounded.\ I was "in tech," but tech felt like a treadmill—just faster, sleeker tools chasing the same hollow outcomes.\ I knew about Bitcoin, but I dismissed it. I thought it was just “tech for tech’s sake.”
Less than a year later, I fell down the rabbit hole.
It didn’t happen all at once. At first it was curiosity. Then dissonance. Then conviction.
Somewhere in that process, I realized Bitcoin wasn’t just financial—it was philosophical. It was moral. It was real. And it held up a mirror to a life I had built on momentum more than mission.
So I started pruning.
I left Web3.\ I pulled back from projects that ran on hype instead of honesty.\ I repented—for chasing relevance instead of righteousness.\ And I began stacking—not just sats, but new habits. New thinking. New rhythms of faith, work, and rest.
Now at 60, I’m not where I thought I’d be.
But I’m more myself than I’ve ever been.\ More convicted.\ More rooted.\ More ready.
Not to start over—but to build again, from the foundation up.
If you're in that middle place—between chapters, between convictions, between certainty and surrender—you're not alone.
🟠 I’m still here. Still building. Still listening.
Zap if this resonates, or send your story. I’d love to hear it.
[*Zap *](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)
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@ 2b998b04:86727e47
2025-05-25 03:19:19n an inflationary system, the goal is often just to keep up.
With prices always rising, most of us are stuck in a race:\ Earn more to afford more.\ Spend before your money loses value.\ Monetize everything just to stay ahead of the curve.
Work becomes reactive.\ You hustle to outrun rising costs.\ You take on projects you don’t believe in just to make next month’s bills.\ Money decays. So you move faster, invest riskier, and burn out quicker.
But what happens when the curve flips?
A deflationary economy—like the one Bitcoin makes possible—rewards stillness, reflection, and intentionality.
Time favors the saver, not the spender.\ Money gains purchasing power.\ You’re no longer punished for patience.
You don’t have to convert your energy into cash before it loses value.\ You don’t have to be always on.\ You can actually afford to wait for the right work.
And when you do work—it means more.
💡 The “bullshit jobs” David Graeber wrote about start to disappear.\ There’s no need to look busy just to justify your existence.\ There’s no reward for parasitic middle layers.\ Instead, value flows to real craft, real care, and real proof of work—philosophically and literally.
So what does a job look like in that world?
— A farmer building soil instead of chasing subsidies.\ — An engineer optimizing for simplicity instead of speed.\ — A craftsman making one perfect table instead of ten cheap ones.\ — A writer telling the truth without clickbait.\ — A builder who says no more than they say yes.
You choose work that endures—not because it pays instantly, but because it’s worth doing.
The deflationary future isn’t a fantasy.\ It’s a recalibration.
It’s not about working less.\ It’s about working better.
That’s what Bitcoin taught me.\ That’s what I’m trying to live now.
🟠 If you’re trying to align your work with these values, I’d love to connect.\ Zap this post, reply with your story, or follow along as I build—without permission, but with conviction.\ [https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)
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@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d
2025-05-25 11:01:10Ukraine is reportedly about to make history by becoming the first country in Europe to have a national bitcoin reserve, a move aimed at strengthening its economy during the war with Russia.
The plan is still in its early stages and Binance, the world’s largest digital asset exchange, is involved.
According to Incrypted, a Ukrainian digital asset news outlet, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, First Deputy Chairman of the Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee, confirmed that the draft law is almost ready and will be submitted to the parliament soon.
“We will soon submit a draft law from the industry allowing the creation of crypto reserves,” Zheleznyak told Incrypted.
Earlier discussions mentioned a broader “crypto reserve” but the current plan is focused on bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. If approved, the law will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to hold bitcoin as part of the country’s official reserves.
Since the war with Russia started, Ukraine has become one of the most bitcoin-friendly countries in the world.
In 2022 and 2023 Ukraine raised over $100 million in digital asset donations for defense and humanitarian purposes. A report from Chainalysis ranked the country among the top 10 countries for bitcoin adoption globally.
A rather vague and unconfirmed report by BitcoinTreasuries.net states that “holdings of public officials” currently stand at 46,351 BTC.
Ukraine bitcoin holdings as reported by BitcoinTreasuries
Supporters of the bitcoin reserve say it will help Ukraine protect its economy from war-related instability, inflation and currency depreciation.
By going digital, the government is looking for modern tools to strengthen its financial system in uncertain times. This is not just about storing bitcoin, it’s about establishing clear laws for digital assets ownership, management and use.
Binance is playing an advisory role in the project. The company has worked with Ukraine on digital asset education and regulations in the past and is now helping to shape the legal framework for the bitcoin reserve.
Kirill Khomyakov, Binance’s regional head for Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa, confirmed the company’s support, but warned it won’t be fast or easy.
“The creation of such a reserve will require significant changes in legislation,” Khomyakov said. “Another positive aspect is that this initiative will likely lead to greater clarity in the regulation of crypto assets in Ukraine.”
Despite the support from some officials, there are legal hurdles. Ukrainian laws don’t allow bitcoin to be in the official reserves. So the government needs to pass new laws for it to happen.
Efforts to legalize bitcoin in general have been going on for years. In 2021, a draft law on virtual assets was approved by Finance Committee but was withdrawn after the President’s Office and financial regulators objected.
Up to now, over 80 amendments have been proposed, showing how complicated the process is.
The Ministry of Digital Transformation is leading a larger reform that could introduce rules for digital asset exchanges, tax laws and anti-money laundering standards in the country.
Ukraine isn’t alone in considering bitcoin as a national reserve asset. In March 2025, the U.S. announced its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using BTC seized in criminal cases.
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@ 47259076:570c98c4
2025-05-25 01:33:57When a man meets a woman, they produce another human being.
The biological purpose of life is to reproduce, that's why we have reproductive organs.
However, you can't reproduce if you are dying of starvation or something else.
So you must look for food, shelter and other basic needs.
Once those needs are satisfied, the situation as a whole is more stable and then it is easier to reproduce.
Once another human being is created, you still must support him.
In the animal kingdom, human babies are the ones who take longer to walk and be independent as a whole.
Therefore, in the first years of our lives, we are very dependent on our parents or whoever is taking care of us.
We also have a biological drive for living.
That's why when someone is drowning he will hold on into whatever they can grab with the highest strength possible.
Or when our hand is close to fire or something hot, we remove our hand immediately from the hot thing, without thinking about removing our hand, we just do it.
These are just 2 examples, there are many other examples that show this biological tendency/reflex to keep ourselves alive.
We also have our brain, which we can use to get information/knowledge/ideas/advice from the ether.
In this sense, our brain is just an antenna or radio, and the ether is the signal.
Of course, we are not the radio, we are the signal.
In other words, you are not your body, you are pure consciousness "locked" temporarily in a body.
Because we can act after receiving information from the ether, we can construct and invent new things to make our lives easier.
So far, using only biology as our rule, we can get to the following conclusion: The purpose of life is to live in a safe place, work to get food and reproduce.
Because humans have been evolving in the technological sense, we don't need to hunt for food, we can just go to the market and buy meat.
And for the shelter(house), we just buy it.
Even though you can buy a house, it's still not yours, since the government or any thug can take it from you, but this is a topic for another article.
So, adjusting what I said before in a modern sense, the purpose of life is: Work in a normal job from Monday to Friday, save money, buy a house, buy a car, get a wife and have kids. Keep working until you are old enough, then retire and do nothing for the rest of your life, just waiting for the moment you die.
Happy life, happy ending, right?
No.
There is something else to it, there is another side of the coin.
This is explored briefly by Steve Jobs in this video, but I pretend to go much further than him: https://youtu.be/uf6TzOHO_dk
Let's get to the point now.
First of all, you are alive. This is not normal.
Don't take life for granted.
There is no such a thing as a coincidence. Chance is but a name given for a law that has not been recognized yet.
You are here for a reason.
God is real. All creation starts in the mind.
The mind is the source of all creation.
When the mind of god starts thinking, it records its thoughts into matter through light.
But this is too abstract, let's get to something simple.
Governments exist, correct?
The force behind thinking is desire, without desire there is no creation.
If desired ceased to exist, everything would just vanish in the blink of an eye.
How governments are supported financially?
By taking your money.
Which means, you produce, and they take it.
And you can't go against it without suffering, therefore, you are a slave.
Are you realizing the gravity of the situation?
You are working to keep yourself alive as well as faceless useless men that you don't even know.
Your car must have an identification.
When you are born, you must have an identification.
In brazil, you can't home school your children.
When "your" "country" is in war, you must fight to defend it and give your life.
Countries are limited by imaginary lines.
How many lives have been destroyed in meaningless wars?
You must go to the front-line to defend your masters.
In most countries, you don't have freedom of speech, which means, you can't even express what you think.
When you create a company, you must have an identification and pass through a very bureaucratic process.
The money you use is just imaginary numbers in the screen of a computer or phone.
The money you use is created out of thin air.
By money here, I am referring to fiat money, not bitcoin.
Bitcoin is an alternative to achieve freedom, but this is topic for another article.
Depending on what you want to work on, you must go to college.
If you want to become a doctor, you must spend at least 5 years in an university decorating useless muscle names and bones.
Wisdom is way more important than knowledge.
That's why medical errors are the third leading cause of death in United States of America.
And I'm not even talking about Big Pharma and the "World Health Organization"
You can't even use or sell drugs, your masters don't allow it.
All the money you get, you must explain from where you got it.
Meanwhile, your masters have "black budget" and don't need to explain anything to you, even though everything they do is financed by your money.
In most countries you can't buy a gun, while your masters have a whole army fully armed to the teeth to defend them.
Your masters want to keep you sedated and asleep.
Look at all the "modern" art produced nowadays.
Look at the media, which of course was never created to "inform you".
Your masters even use your body to test their bio-technology, as happened with the covid 19 vaccines.
This is public human testing, there's of course secretive human testing, such as MKUltra and current experiments that happen nowadays that I don't even know.
I can give hundreds of millions of examples, quite literally, but let's just focus in one case, Jeffrey Epstein.
He was a guy who got rich "suddenly" and used his influence and spy skills to blackmail politicians and celebrities through recording them doing acts of pedophilia.
In United States of America, close to one million children a year go missing every year.
Some portion of these children are used in satanic rituals, and the participants of these rituals are individuals from the "high society".
Jeffrey Epstein was just an "employee", he was not the one at the top of the evil hierarchy.
He was serving someone or a group of people that I don't know who they are.
That's why they murdered him.
Why am I saying all of this?
The average person who sleep, work, eat and repeat has no idea all of this is going on.
They have no idea there is a very small group of powerful people who are responsible for many evil damage in the world.
They think the world is resumed in their little routine.
They think their routine is all there is to it.
They don't know how big the world truly is, in both a good and evil sense.
Given how much we produce and all the technology we have, people shouldn't even have to work, things would be almost nearly free.
Why aren't they?
Because of taxes.
This group of people even has access to a free energy device, which would disrupt the world in a magnitude greater than everything we have ever seen in the history of Earth.
That's why MANY people who tried to work in any manifestation of a free energy device have been murdered, or rather, "fell from a window".
How do I know a free energy device exist? This is topic for another article.
So my conclusion is:
We are in hell already. Know thyself. Use your mind for creation, any sort of creation. Do good for the people around you and the people you meet, always give more than you get, try to do your best in everything you set out to do, even if it's a boring or mundane work.
Life is short.
Our body can live no longer than 300 years.
Most people die before 90.
Know thyself, do good to the world while you can.
Wake up!!! Stop being sedated and asleep.
Be conscious.
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@ 47c860d3:b3f71b74
2025-05-25 01:56:39ไขความลับรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8: ศาสตร์แห่งการบีบอัดข้อมูลสื่อสารดิจิทัล คืนหนึ่ง ผมนั่งอยู่หน้าจอคอมพิวเตอร์ มองสัญญาณ FT8 กระพริบไปมา ส่งข้อความสั้นๆ ซ้ำไปซ้ำมา "CQ HS1IWX OK03" แล้วก็รอให้ใครสักคนตอบกลับ วนลูปไปอย่างไม่รู้จบ จนเกิดคำถามขึ้นมาในหัว... “นี่เรานั่งทำอะไรกันแน่?” FT8 มันควรเป็นอะไรมากกว่านี้ใช่ไหม? ไม่ใช่แค่การส่งคำสั้นๆ 13 ตัวอักษรไปมาเท่านั้น! เอ๊ะ! เดี๋ยวก่อน... 13 ตัวอักษร? ถ้าการส่งข้อความจำกัดที่ 13 ตัวอักษร แล้วทำไมข้อความอย่าง "CQ HS1IWX OK03" ซึ่งดูเหมือนจะมี 14 ตัวอักษร (รวมช่องว่าง) ถึงสามารถส่งได้? นี่มันต้องมีอะไรซ่อนอยู่! ระบบ FT8 ใช้เวทมนตร์อะไร หรือมันมีเทคนิคการเข้ารหัสแบบลับๆ ที่เรายังไม่รู้? และคำว่า "13 ตัวอักษร" ที่เขาพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึงอะไรกันแน่? แล้วลองนึกดูสิ... ถ้าเราอยู่ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน ต้องส่งข้อความที่สั้น กระชับ และมีความหมาย ในขณะที่แบตเตอรี่เหลือน้อย กำลังส่งต่ำ และอุปกรณ์มีเพียงเครื่องวิทยุขนาดเล็กกับสายอากาศชั่วคราวและมือถือ บางครั้ง FT8 อาจจะเป็นตัวเลือกเดียวที่ช่วยให้เราส่งสัญญาณขอความช่วยเหลือได้ เพราะมันสามารถถอดรหัสได้แม้สัญญาณอ่อนจนแทบจะมองไม่เห็น! ดังนั้น ผมต้องขุดลึกลงไป เพื่อไขความลับของรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8 และหาคำตอบว่า ทำไม FT8 สามารถส่งข้อความบางอย่างที่ดูเหมือนยาวเกินขีดจำกัดได้? พร้อมกับสำรวจว่ามันสามารถช่วยเหลือเราในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้อย่างไร! อะไรคือความหมายที่แท้จริงของ 13 ตัวอักษร ? เมื่อเริ่มเจาะลึกลงไป ผมจึงได้รู้ว่า 13 ตัวอักษรที่เราพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึง ข้อความใน Free Text Mode หรือก็คือ ข้อความที่ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสในรูปแบบมาตรฐานของ FT8 หากเราส่งข้อความแบบอิสระ เช่น "HELLO WORLD!" หรือ "EMERGENCY CALL" เราจะถูกจำกัดแค่ 13 ตัวอักษรเท่านั้น เพราะข้อความเหล่านี้ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสให้เหมาะสมกับโปรโตคอลของระบบ FT8 แต่ถ้าเป็น ข้อความมาตรฐานที่ถูกกำหนดรูปแบบไว้แล้ว เช่น Callsign + Grid หรือ รายงาน SNR (-10, 599, RR73) ระบบ FT8 จะใช้การเข้ารหัส 77-bit Structured Message ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถส่งข้อมูลได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร! อะไรคือ โครงสร้าง 77-bit Message ใน FT8 FT8 ใช้ 77 บิต สำหรับการเข้ารหัสข้อมูล โดยแบ่งออกเป็น 3 ส่วนหลัก: ส่วนของข้อมูล จำนวนบิต รายละเอียด Callsign 1 (ต้นทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีที่ส่ง Callsign 2 (ปลายทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีปลายทาง หรือ CQ Exchange Data 21 บิต Grid Locator หรือข้อมูลอื่น ๆ รวมทั้งหมด = 28 + 28 + 21 = 77 บิต การที่ FT8 ใช้โครงสร้างแบบนี้ ข้อความที่ถูกเข้ารหัสในมาตรฐาน FT8 จึงสามารถส่งได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร เช่น "CQ HS1IWX OK03" นั้นถูกเข้ารหัสให้อยู่ใน 77 บิต ไม่ใช่ Free Text แบบปกติ ทำให้สามารถส่งได้โดยไม่มีปัญหา! แต่ข้อสำคัญมันคือโปโตคอลของระบบ FT8 ในปัจจุบัน ถ้าเราต้องการ เข้ารหัสเองในรูปแบบของเราเราก็ต้องพัฒนาโปรแกรม FT8 ของเราเอง (ผมทำไม่เป็นครับ555) ก็ใช้ของเขาไปก็ได้ แล้วก็มาพัฒนาระบบ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร กันน่าจะสนุกกว่า ส่วนเรื่องรายละเอียดวิธีการเข้ารหัสผมคงไม่พูดถึงนะ เดี๋ยวจะวิชาการน่าเบื่อไปครับ ใครสนใจก็ไปศึกษาต่อกันเอาเองครับ การเข้ารหัสนี้จะใช้ร่วมกับเทคนิค FEC (Forward Error Correction) ใน FT8 ซึ่งเป็นหนึ่งในเทคนิคที่ทำให้ FT8 สามารถถอดรหัสข้อความได้แม้ในสภาวะสัญญาณอ่อน คือการใช้ Forward Error Correction (FEC) หรือ การแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดล่วงหน้า ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อมูลที่อาจเกิดการสูญหายในระหว่างการส่งสัญญาณได้ โดย FT8 ใช้ Reed-Solomon (RS) Error Correction Code ซึ่งเป็นอัลกอริธึมที่เพิ่มบิตสำรองเพื่อช่วยตรวจจับและแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดในข้อความที่ส่งไป และ ใช้ Convolutional Encoding และ Viterbi Decoding ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถแก้ไขข้อมูลที่ผิดพลาดจากสัญญาณรบกวนได้ ซึ่งเมื่อสัญญาณอ่อน ข้อมูลบางส่วนอาจสูญหาย แต่ FEC ช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อความได้แม้ข้อมูลบางส่วนจะขาดหาย ทำให้ผลลัพธ์คือ FT8 สามารถทำงานได้แม้ระดับสัญญาณต่ำถึง -20 dB! ซึ่งส่วนนี้ผมก็ยังไม่เข้าใจมันดีเท่าไหร่ครับ อิอิ ฟังเขามาอีกที สิ่งที่เราทำได้ตอนนี้ในโปรแกรม FT8 ในปัจจุบันก็คือ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษรถ้าเรา อยากส่งข้อความฉุกเฉินภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร ให้ได้ข้อมูลมากที่สุด เราต้องใช้เทคนิคต่อไปนี้: การใช้ตัวย่อและรหัสสากล • SOS 1234 BKK แทน "ขอความช่วยเหลือที่พิกัด 1234 ใกล้กรุงเทพ" • WX BKK T35C แทน "สภาพอากาศกรุงเทพ 35 องศา" • ALRT TSUNAMI แทน "เตือนภัยสึนามิ" ใช้ข้อความที่อ่านเข้าใจง่าย • ใช้โค้ดสั้นๆ เช่น "QRZ EMRG?" แทน "ใครรับสัญญาณฉุกเฉิน?" การส่งข้อความเป็นชุด • เฟรม 1: MSG1 BKK STORM1 • เฟรม 2: MSG2 BKK STORM2 • เฟรม 3: MSG3 BKK NOW “การฝึกฝนเพื่อทำความเข้าใจการสื่อสารเป็นสิ่งสำคัญ เพราะเมื่อได้รับข้อความเหล่านี้ เราจะสามารถถอดรหัสและติดตามข้อมูลได้อย่างทันท่วงที” ครั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพียงการค้นพบอีกด้านหนึ่งของ FT8… หรือมันอาจเปลี่ยนมุมมองของคุณที่มีต่อโหมดสื่อสารดิจิทัลไปตลอดกาลก็ได้ แต่เดี๋ยวก่อน—นี่มันอะไรกัน!? จู่ๆ บนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ของผมก็ปรากฏคอลซายที่ไม่คุ้นตา D1IFU—คอลซายที่ไม่มีอยู่ในฐานข้อมูลของ ITU แต่กลับปรากฏขึ้นบนคลื่นความถี่ของเรา D1…? มันมาได้ยังไง? แล้วทันใดนั้น ผมก็ฉุกคิดขึ้นมา—มันคือคอลซายจากพื้นที่ Donetsk หรือ Luhansk พื้นที่ที่เต็มไปด้วยความขัดแย้ง ดินแดนที่เราคิดว่าเงียบงันภายใต้เสียงระเบิดและความไม่แน่นอน แต่ตอนนี้ กลับมีสัญญาณเล็กๆ ปรากฏขึ้นบน FT8 มันคือใครกัน? เป็นทหาร? เป็นพลเรือนที่พยายามติดต่อโลกภายนอก? หรือเป็นเพียงนักวิทยุสมัครเล่นที่ยังคงเฝ้าฟังแม้โลกจะเต็มไปด้วยความวุ่นวาย? แต่สิ่งหนึ่งที่แน่ชัด… “นี่คือสัญญาณแห่งชีวิต” จบข่าว. 🚀📡
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@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7
2025-05-25 10:59:25480 steps
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@ 502ab02a:a2860397
2025-05-25 01:03:51บางครั้งพลังยิ่งใหญ่ที่สุดก็ไม่ใช่สิ่งที่เห็นได้ด้วยตาเปล่า เหมือนแสงแดดที่คนส่วนใหญ่มักจะกลัวเพราะกลัวผิวเสีย กลัวฝ้า กลัวร้อน แต่แท้จริงแล้วในแสงแดดมีบางสิ่งที่น่าเคารพอยู่ลึกๆ มันคือแสงที่มองไม่เห็น มันไม่แสบตา ไม่แสบผิว แต่มันลึก ถึงเซลล์ มันคือ “แสงอินฟราเรด” ที่ซ่อนตัวอย่างสุภาพในแดดยามเช้า
เฮียมักชอบพูดว่า แดดที่ดีไม่จำเป็นต้องแสบหลัง อาบแสงที่ลอดผ่านใบไม้ยามเช้าแบบไม่ต้องฝืนตาก็พอ แสงอินฟราเรดนี่แหละคือพระเอกตัวจริงในความเงียบ มันไม่ดัง ไม่โชว์ ไม่โฆษณา แต่มันลงลึกไปถึงระดับที่ร่างกายเรากำลังหิวโดยไม่รู้ตัวในระดับเซลล์
ในเซลล์ของเรา มีหน่วยผลิตพลังงานที่เรียกว่าไมโทคอนเดรีย เจ้านี่แหละคือโรงไฟฟ้าจิ๋วประจำบ้าน ที่ต้องตื่นมาทำงานทุกวันโดยไม่ได้หยุดเสาร์อาทิตย์ ยิ่งถ้าไมโทคอนเดรียทำงานไม่ดี ร่างกายก็จะเหมือนไฟตกทั้งระบบ—ง่วงง่าย เพลียไว ปวดนู่นปวดนี่เหมือนไฟในบ้านกระพริบตลอดเวลา
แล้วแสงอินฟราเรดเกี่ยวอะไรกับมัน? เฮียขอเล่าง่ายๆ ว่า ไมโทคอนเดรียมีตัวรับแสงตัวหนึ่งชื่อว่า cytochrome c oxidase เจ้านี่ตอบสนองต่อแสงอินฟราเรดช่วงคลื่นเฉพาะ คือประมาณ 600–900 นาโนเมตร พอโดนเข้าไป มันเหมือนได้จุดประกายให้โรงงานพลังงานในร่างกายกลับมาคึกคักอีกครั้ง ผลิตพลังงานได้มากขึ้น ระบบไหลเวียนเลือดก็ดีขึ้น เหมือนท่อน้ำที่เคยอุดตันก็กลับมาใสแจ๋ว ความอักเสบเล็กๆ ในร่างกายก็ลดลง คล้ายบ้านที่เคยอับชื้นแล้วได้เปิดหน้าต่างให้แสงแดดส่องเข้าไป
และที่น่ารักกว่านั้นคือ เราไม่ต้องไปถึงชายหาด ไม่ต้องจองรีสอร์ตริมทะเล แค่แดดเช้าอ่อนๆ ข้างบ้านหรือตามขอบระเบียง ก็ให้แสงอินฟราเรดได้แล้ว ถ้าใครอยู่ในเมืองใหญ่ที่มีแต่ตึกบังแดด แล้วจะเลือกใช้หลอดไฟ Red Light Therapy ก็ไม่ผิด แต่ต้องเลือกแบบรู้เท่าทันรู้ ไม่ใช่เห็นใครรีวิวก็ซื้อมาเปิดใส่หน้า หวังจะหน้าใสข้ามคืน ต้องเข้าใจทั้งความยาวคลื่น เวลาใช้งาน และจุดประสงค์ ไม่ใช่ใช้เพราะแค่กลัวแก่อยากหน้าตึง แต่ใช้เพราะอยากให้ร่างกายกลับไปทำงานอย่างเป็นธรรมชาติอีกครั้ง และอยู่ในประเทศหรือสถานที่ที่โดนแดดได้น้อยอยากได้เสริมเฉยๆ
แล้วเราจะรู้ได้ยังไงว่าไมโทคอนเดรียเรากลับมาทำงานดีขึ้น? เฮียว่าไม่ต้องรอผลเลือดจากแล็บไหนก็รู้ได้ อย่าไปยึดติดกับตัวเลขมากครับ เอาตัวเองเป็นหลัก ตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่ารู้สึกยังไงบ้าง ถ้าเริ่มนอนหลับลึกขึ้น ตื่นมาแล้วหัวไม่มึน ไม่หงุดหงิดตั้งแต่ยังไม่ลืมตา ถ้าปวดหลังปวดข้อที่เคยมีเริ่มหายไปแบบไม่ได้กินยา หรือแม้แต่ผิวที่ดูสดใสขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องง้อสกินแคร์ นั่นแหละคือเสียงขอบคุณเบาๆ จากไมโทคอนเดรียที่ได้แสงแดดแล้วกลับมามีชีวิตอีกครั้ง ถ้ามันดีก็คือดี
บางที เราไม่ต้องกินวิตามินเม็ดไหนเพิ่ม แค่เดินออกไปรับแดดเบาๆ ในเวลาเช้าๆ แล้วให้ร่างกายได้พูดคุยกับธรรมชาติบ้าง เพราะในความอบอุ่นเงียบๆ ของแสงอินฟราเรดนั้น มีเสียงเบาๆ ที่กำลังปลุกพลังในตัวเราให้กลับมาอีกครั้ง
แดดไม่ใช่ศัตรู ถ้าเรารู้จักมันในมุมที่ถูกต้อง เฮียแค่อยากชวนให้ลองเปลี่ยนจากคำว่า “กลัวแดด” เป็น “ฟังแดด” เพราะบางครั้งธรรมชาติไม่ได้พูดด้วยคำ แต่สื่อสารด้วยแสงที่แทรกผ่านหัวใจเราโดยไม่ต้องผ่านล่าม
บางคนอาจคิดในใจ “แหมเฮีย ก็ดีหรอก ถ้าได้ตื่นเช้า” 555555
เฮียเข้าใจดีเลยว่าไม่ใช่ทุกคนจะตื่นมาทันแดดยามเช้าได้เสมอไป ชีวิตคนเรามันไม่ได้เริ่มต้นพร้อมไก่ขันทุกวัน บางคนเพิ่งเข้านอนตอนตีสาม ตื่นอีกทีแดดก็แตะบ่ายเข้าไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องกังวลไปจ้ะ เพราะความมหัศจรรย์ของแสงอินฟราเรดยังมีให้เราได้ใช้แม้ในแดดยามเย็น
แดดช่วงเย็น โดยเฉพาะหลังสี่โมงเย็นไปจนเกือบหกโมง (หรือเร็วช้าตามฤดู) ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก
เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก
จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ
สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ
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2025-03-07 14:35:26Listen the Podcast:
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Abstract
This paper examines a hypothetical scenario in which the United States, under Trump’s leadership, withdraws from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, thereby enabling a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America. Drawing on classical geopolitical theories—specifically those of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel—the study analyzes how these frameworks can elucidate the evolving power dynamics and territorial ambitions in a reconfigured global order. The discussion highlights Mackinder’s notion of the Eurasian Heartland and its strategic importance, Mahan’s emphasis on maritime power and control of strategic routes, Kjellén’s view of the state as an expanding organism, and Ratzel’s concept of Lebensraum as a justification for territorial expansion. The paper also explores contemporary developments, such as the US–Ukraine economic agreement and Trump’s overt territorial ambitions involving Greenland and Canada, in light of these theories. By juxtaposing traditional geopolitical concepts with current international relations, the study aims to shed light on the potential implications of such shifts for regional stability, global security, and the balance of power, particularly in relation to emerging neocolonial practices in Latin America.
Introduction
In recent years, the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have sparked analyses from different theoretical perspectives. This paper examines recent events – presupposing a scenario in which Donald Trump withdraws the US from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, allowing a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America – in light of classical geopolitical theories. The ideas of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel are used as reference points. The proposal is to impartially evaluate how each theory can elucidate the developments of this hypothetical scenario, relating Russian territorial expansion in Eurasia to the strategic retreat of the US to the Western Hemisphere.
Initially, we will outline Mackinder’s conception of the Heartland (the central Eurasian territory) and the crucial role of Eastern Europe and Ukraine in the quest for global dominance. Next, we will discuss Mahan’s ideas regarding maritime power and the control of strategic routes, considering the impacts on the naval power balance among the US, Russia, and other maritime powers such as the United Kingdom and Japan. Subsequently, we will examine Kjellén’s organic theory of the state, interpreting the Russian expansionist strategy as a reflection of a state organism in search of vital space. In the same vein, Ratzel’s concept of “Lebensraum” will be explored, along with how Russia could justify territorial expansion based on resources and territory. Finally, the paper connects these theories to the current political context, analyzing the direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow (overlooking Ukraine and Europe), the US policy toward authoritarian regimes in Latin America, and the notion of a hemispheric division of power – the “Island of the Americas” under North American hegemony versus an Eurasia dominated by Russia. Lastly, it considers the possibility that such a geopolitical arrangement may foster the strengthening of authoritarian governments globally, rather than containing them, thus altering the paradigms of the liberal world order.
The Heartland of Mackinder: Ukraine, Eurasia, and Global Dominance
Halford J. Mackinder, a British geographer and pioneer of geopolitics, proposed the celebrated Heartland Theory in the early twentieth century. Mackinder divided the world into geostrategic zones and identified the Heartland—the central continental mass of Eurasia—as the “geographical pivot of history” [5]. His most famous maxim encapsulates this vision: “who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; who rules the World Island commands the world” [5]. Eastern Europe and, in particular, the region of present-day Ukraine, play a key role in this formula. This is because, for Mackinder, Eastern Europe functions as a gateway to the Heartland, providing access to resources and a strategic position for the projection of continental power [5].
Applying this theory to our scenario, the conquest of Ukraine and Eastern European countries by Russia would have profound geopolitical implications. From a Mackinderian point of view, such a conquest would enormously strengthen Russia’s position in the Heartland by adding manpower (population) and Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural resources to its power base [5]. In fact, Mackinder argued that controlling the Heartland conferred formidable geostrategic advantages—a vast terrestrial “natural fortress” protected from naval invasions and rich in resources such as wheat, minerals, and fuels [5]. Thus, if Moscow were to incorporate Ukraine (renowned for its fertile soil and grain production, as well as its mineral reserves) and extend its influence over Eastern Europe, Russia would consolidate the Heartland under its direct control. In this context, the absence of the USA (withdrawn from NATO and less engaged in Europe) would remove an important obstacle to Russian predominance in the region.
With central and eastern Eurasia under Russian influence, it would be possible to move toward the realization of the geopolitical nightmare described by Mackinder for Western maritime powers: a hegemonic continental power capable of projecting power to both Europe and Asia. Mackinder himself warned that if a Heartland power gained additional access to an oceanic coastline—in other words, if it combined land power with a significant maritime front—it would constitute a “danger” to global freedom [5]. In the scenario considered, besides advancing into Eastern Europe, Russia would already possess strategic maritime outlets (for example, in the Black Sea, via Crimea, and in the Baltic, via Kaliningrad or the Baltic States if influenced). Thus, the control of Ukraine would reinforce Russia’s position in the Black Sea and facilitate projection into the Eastern Mediterranean, expanding its oceanic front. From a Mackinderian perspective, this could potentially transform Russia into the dominant power of the “World Island” (the combined mass of Europe, Asia, and Africa), thereby unbalancing the global geopolitical order [5].
It is worth noting that, historically, Mackinder’s doctrine influenced containment strategies: both in the interwar period and during the Cold War, efforts were made to prevent a single power from controlling the Heartland and Eastern Europe. NATO, for example, can be seen as an instrument to prevent Soviet/Russian advances in Europe, in line with Mackinder’s imperative to “contain the Heartland.” Thus, if the USA were to abandon that role—by leaving NATO and tacitly accepting the Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia—we would be witnessing an inversion of the principles that have guided Western policy for decades. In short, under Mackinder’s theory, the Russian conquest of Ukraine and beyond would represent the key for Russia to command the Heartland and, potentially, challenge global hegemony, especially in a scenario where the USA self-restricts to the Western Hemisphere.
The Maritime Power of Mahan and the Naval Balance between West and East
While Mackinder emphasized continental land power, Alfred Thayer Mahan, a nineteenth-century American naval strategist, highlighted the crucial role of maritime power in global dominance. In his work The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890), Mahan studied the example of the British Empire and concluded that control of the seas paved the way for British supremacy as a world power [10]. He argued that a strong navy and the control of strategic maritime routes were decisive factors for projecting military, political, and economic power. His doctrine can be summarized in the following points: (1) the United States should aspire to be a world power; (2) control of the seas is necessary to achieve that status; (3) such control is obtained through a powerful fleet of warships [17]. In other words, for Mahan, whoever dominates the maritime routes and possesses naval superiority will be in a position to influence global destinies, ensuring trade, supplies, and the rapid movement of military forces.
In the proposed scenario, in which the USA withdraws militarily from Europe and possibly from the Eurasian stage, Mahan’s ideas raise questions about the distribution of maritime power and its effects. Traditionally, the US Navy operates globally, ensuring freedom of navigation and deterring challenges in major seas (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, etc.). A withdrawal of the USA from NATO could also signal a reduction in its naval presence in the Northeast Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and other areas close to Eurasia. In such a case, who would fill this naval vacuum? Russia, although primarily a land power, has been attempting to modernize its navy and has specific interests—for example, consolidating its dominance in the Black Sea and maintaining a presence in the Mediterranean (with a naval base in Tartus, Syria). The United Kingdom, a historic European maritime power, would remain aligned with the USA but, without American military support in Europe, might potentially be overwhelmed trying to contain an increasingly assertive Russian navy in European waters on its own. Japan, another significant maritime actor allied with the USA, is concerned with the naval balance in the Pacific; without full American engagement, Tokyo might be compelled to expand its own naval power to contain both Russia in the Far East (which maintains a fleet in the Pacific) and, especially, the growing Chinese navy.
According to Mahan’s thinking, strategic maritime routes and choke points (crucial straits and channels) become contested prizes in this power game. With the USA focusing on the Americas, one could imagine Washington reinforcing control over the Panama Canal and Caribbean routes—reviving an “American Gulf” policy in the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. In fact, indications of this orientation emerge in statements attributed to Trump, who once suggested reclaiming direct control over Panama, transforming Canada into a North American state, and even “annexing” Greenland due to its Arctic geopolitical importance [18]. These aspirations reflect a quest to secure advantageous maritime positions near the American continent.
Conversely, in the absence of American presence in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean, Russia would have free rein for regional maritime projection. This could include anything from the unrestricted use of the Black Sea (after dominating Ukraine, thereby ensuring full access to Crimea and Ukrainian ports) to greater influence in the Eastern Mediterranean via Syria and partnerships with countries such as Iran or Egypt. The Baltic Sea would also become an area of expanded Russian interest, pressuring coastal countries and perhaps reducing NATO’s traditional local naval supremacy. However, it is worth noting that even with these regional expansions, Russia lacks a blue-water navy comparable to that of the USA; thus, its initial global maritime impact would be limited without alliances.
An important aspect of Mahan’s theories is that naval power serves as a counterbalance to the land power of the Heartland. Therefore, even if Russia were to dominate the Eurasian continental mass, the continued presence of American naval might on the oceans could prevent complete global domination by Moscow. However, if the USA voluntarily restricts its naval reach to the Americas, it would forgo influencing the power balance in the seas adjacent to Eurasia. Consequently, the balance of maritime power would tend to shift in favor of regional Eurasian actors. The United Kingdom and Japan, traditional allies of the USA, could intensify their naval capabilities to defend regional interests—the United Kingdom safeguarding the North Atlantic and the North Sea, and Japan patrolling the Northwest Pacific—but both would face budgetary and structural limitations in fully compensating for the absence of the American superpower. Consequently, Mahan’s vision suggests that the withdrawal of the USA from the extra-regional scene would weaken the liberal maritime regime, possibly opening space for revisionist powers to contest routes that were previously secured (for example, Russia and China encountering less opposition on the routes of the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific, respectively). In summary, naval hegemony would fragment, and control of strategic seas would become contested, reconfiguring the relative influence of the USA, Russia, and maritime allies such as the United Kingdom and Japan.
Kjellén and the State as a Living Organism: Russian Expansion as an Organic Necessity
Another useful theoretical lens to interpret Russian geopolitical posture is that of Rudolf Kjellén, a Swedish political scientist of the early twentieth century who conceived the State as a living organism. Kjellén, who even coined the term “geopolitics,” was influenced by Friedrich Ratzel’s ideas and by social Darwinism, arguing that States are born, grow, and decline analogously to living beings [13]. In his work Staten som livsform (The State as a Form of Life, 1916), he maintained that States possess an organic dimension in addition to the legal one and that “just as any form of life, States must expand or die” [14]. This expansion would not be motivated merely by aggressive conquest but seen as a necessary growth for the self-preservation of the state organism [14]. In complement, Kjellén echoed Ratzel’s “law of expanding spaces” by asserting that large States expand at the expense of smaller ones, with it being only a matter of time before the great realms fill the available spaces [14]. That is, from the organic perspective, vigorous States tend to incorporate smaller neighboring territories, consolidating territorially much like an organism absorbing nutrients.
Applying this theory to the strategy of contemporary Russia, we can interpret Moscow’s actions—including the invasion of Ukraine and the ambition to restore its sphere of influence in Eurasia—as the expression of an organic drive for expansion. For a strategist influenced by this school, Russia (viewed as a state organism with a long imperial history) needs to expand its territory and influence to ensure its survival and security. The loss of control over spaces that once were part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union (such as Ukraine itself, the Caucasus, or Central Asia) may be perceived by Russian elites as an atrophy of the state organism, rendering it vulnerable. Thus, the reincorporation of these territories—whether directly (annexation) or indirectly (political vassalage)—would equate to restoring lost members or strengthening vital organs of the state body. In fact, official Russian arguments often portray Ukraine as an intrinsic part of “Russian historicity,” denying it a fully separate identity—a narrative that aligns with the idea that Russian expansion in that region is natural and necessary for the Russian State (seen as encompassing also Russian speakers beyond its current borders).
Kjellén would thus provide a theoretical justification for Russian territorial expansion as an organic phenomenon. As a great power, Russia would inevitably seek to expand at the expense of smaller neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States, etc.), as dictated by the tendency of “great spaces to organize” to the detriment of the small [14]. This view can be identified in contemporary Russian doctrines that value spheres of influence and the notion that neighboring countries must gravitate around Moscow in order for the natural order to be maintained. The very idea of “Eurasia” united under Russian leadership (advocated by modern Russian thinkers) echoes this organic conception of vital space and expansion as a sign of the State’s vitality.
However, Kjellén’s theory also warns of the phenomenon of “imperial overstretch,” should a State exceed its internal cohesion limits by expanding excessively [14]. He recognized that extending borders too far could increase friction and vulnerabilities, making it difficult to maintain cohesion—a very large organism may lack functional integration. In the Russian context, this suggests that although expansion is seen as necessary, there are risks if Russia tries to encompass more than it can govern effectively. Conquering Ukraine and subjugating Eastern Europe, for example, could economically and militarily overburden the Russian State, especially if it faced resistance or had to manage hostile populations. However, in the hypothetical scenario we adopt (isolated USA and a weakened Europe), Russia might calculate that the organic benefits of expansion (territory, resources, strategic depth) would outweigh the costs, since external interference would be limited. Thus, through Kjellén’s lens, expansionist Russia behaves as an organism following its instinct for survival and growth, absorbing weaker neighbors; yet such a process is not devoid of challenges, requiring that the “organism Russia” manages to assimilate these new spaces without collapsing under its own weight.
Ratzel and Lebensraum: Resources, Territory, and the Justification for Expansion
Parallel to Kjellén’s organic view, Friedrich Ratzel’s theory offers another conceptual basis for understanding Russian expansion: the concept of Lebensraum (vital space). Ratzel, a German geographer of the late nineteenth century, proposed that the survival and development of a people or nation depended critically on the available physical space and resources. Influenced by Darwinist ideas, he applied the notion of “survival of the fittest” to nations, arguing that human societies need to conquer territory and resources to prosper, and that the stronger and fittest civilizations will naturally prevail over the weaker ones [12]. In 1901, Ratzel coined the term Lebensraum to describe this need for “vital space” as a geographical factor in national power [15].
Subsequently, this idea would be adopted—and extremely distorted—by Nazi ideology to justify Germany’s aggressions in Europe. However, the core of Ratzel’s concept is that territorial expansion is essential for the survival and growth of a State, especially to secure food, raw materials, and space for its population [12].
When examining Russia’s stance under this perspective, we can see several narratives that evoke the logic of Lebensraum. Russia is the largest country in the world by area; however, much of its territory is characterized by adverse climates (tundra, taiga) and is relatively sparsely populated in Siberia. On the other hand, adjacent regions such as Ukraine possess highly arable lands (chernozem—black soil), significant Slavic population density, and additional natural resources (coal in the Donbass, for example). An implicit justification for Russian expansion could be the search for supplementary resources and fertile lands to secure its self-sufficiency and power—exactly as Ratzel described that vigorous nations do. Historical records show that Ratzel emphasized agrarian primacy: he believed that new territories should be colonized by farmers, providing the food base for the nation [12]. Ukraine, historically called the “breadbasket of Europe,” fits perfectly into this vision of conquest for sustenance and agricultural wealth.
Furthermore, Ratzel viewed geography as a determinant of the destiny of nations—peoples adapted to certain habitats seek to expand them if they aspire to grow. In contemporary Russian discourse, there is often mention of the need to ensure security and territorial depth in the face of NATO, or to unite brotherly peoples (Russians and Russian speakers) within a single political space. Such arguments can be read as a modern translation of Lebensraum: the idea that the Russian nation, in order to be secure and flourish, must control a larger space, encompassing buffer zones and critical resources. This Russian “vital space” would naturally include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, given the historical and infrastructural interdependence. Ratzel emphasized that peoples migrated and expanded when their original homeland no longer met their needs or aspirations [12]. Although contemporary Russia does not suffer from demographic pressure (on the contrary, it faces population decline), under the logic of a great power there is indeed a sentiment of geopolitical insufficiency for having lost influence over areas considered strategic. Thus, reconquering these areas would mean recovering the “habitat” necessary for the Russian nation to prosper and feel secure.
It is important to mention that, in Ratzel’s and Kjellén’s formulations, the pursuit of Lebensraum or organic expansion is not morally qualified—it is treated as a natural process in the politics of power. Thus, on the discursive level, Russia can avoid overly aggressive rhetoric and resort to “natural” justifications: for example, claiming that it needs to occupy Ukraine for defensive purposes (security space) or to reunify peoples (a common cultural and historical space). Beneath these justifications, however, resonates the geopolitical imperative to acquire more territory and resources as a guarantee of national survival, something consonant with Ratzel’s theory. In fact, Russian Realpolitik frequently prioritizes the control of energy resources (gas, oil) and transportation routes. Expanding its influence over central Eurasia would also mean controlling oil pipelines, gas lines, and logistical corridors—essential elements of modern Lebensraum understood as access to vital resources and infrastructure.
In summary, by conquering Ukraine and extending its reach into Eurasia, Russia could effectively invoke the concept of Lebensraum: presenting its expansion not as mere imperialism, but as a necessity to secure indispensable lands and resources for its people and to correct the “injustice” of a vital space diminished by post-Cold War territorial losses. The theories of Ratzel and Kjellén together paint a picture in which Russian expansion emerges almost as a natural law—the great State reclaiming space to ensure its survival and development at the expense of smaller neighbors.
Trump, NATO, and the Threat of American Withdrawal
One of the most alarming changes with Trump's return to power is the tense relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump has long criticized allies for not meeting military spending targets, even threatening during his first term to withdraw the US from the alliance if members did not increase their contributions [2]. This threat, initially viewed with skepticism, became concrete after his re-election, leading European allies to seriously consider the possibility of having to defend themselves without American support [1]. In fact, Trump suggested in post-election interviews that the US would only remain in NATO if the allies “paid their bills” – otherwise, he “would seriously consider” leaving [2]. Such statements reinforced the warning that the US might not honor NATO's mutual defense commitment, precisely at a time of continuous Russian threat due to the war in Ukraine [1].
From a theoretical point of view, this posture of American retrenchment evokes the classic tension between maritime power and land power. Alfred Thayer Mahan emphasized that the global power of the US derived largely from its naval superiority and from alliances that ensured control over strategic maritime routes [9]. NATO, since 1949, has served not only to deter Soviet terrestrial advances in Eurasia, but also to secure the US naval presence in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean – a fundamental element according to Mahan. In turn, Halford Mackinder warned that the balance of global power depended on the control of the Eurasian “Heartland” (the central region of Eurasia). The withdrawal or disengagement of the US (a maritime power) from this region could open the way for a continental power (such as Russia) to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, unbalancing the power balance [3]. In other words, by threatening to leave NATO, Trump jeopardizes the principle of containment that prevented Russian dominance over Eastern Europe – something that Mackinder would see as a dangerous shift in global power in favor of the Heartland power.
Adopting an impartial tone, it is observed that European countries have reacted to this new reality with precautionary measures. Strategic reports already calculate the cost of an autonomous European defense: hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers and investments of hundreds of billions of euros would be required if the US ceased to guarantee the security of the continent [1]. European dependence on American military power is significant and, without it, there would be a need for a major reinforcement of European Armed Forces [1]. This mobilization practically reflects the anticipation of a power vacuum left by the US – a scenario in which Mackinder’s theory (on the primacy of the Heartland and the vulnerability of the “external crescent” where Western Europe is located) regains its relevance.
The US–Ukraine Economic Agreement: Strategic Minerals in Exchange for Support?
Another novelty of Trump's second term is the unprecedented and transactional manner in which Washington has been dealing with the war in Ukraine. Instead of emphasizing security guarantees and alliances, the Trump administration proposed a trade agreement with Ukraine focused on the exploitation of strategic minerals, linking American support to a direct economic benefit. According to sources close to the negotiations, the US and Ukraine are about to sign a pact to share the revenues from the exploitation of critical mineral resources on Ukrainian territory [19]. Materials such as titanium, lithium, rare earths, and uranium – vital for high-tech and defense industries – would be at the core of this agreement [6]. According to the known draft, Ukraine would allocate 50% of the profits from new mineral ventures to a fund controlled by the US, which would reinvest part of the resources in the country’s own reconstruction [6] [19].
It is noteworthy that the pact does not include explicit security guarantees for Kyiv, despite Ukraine remaining under direct military threat from Russia [19]. Essentially, the Trump administration offers financial support and economic investment in exchange for a share in Ukrainian natural resources, but without formally committing to Ukraine's defense in the event of a renewed Russian offensive [19]. American authorities argue that this economic partnership would already be sufficient to “secure Ukrainian interests,” as it would provide the US with its own incentives to desire Ukraine’s stability [19]. “What could be better for Ukraine than being in an economic partnership with the United States?” stated Mike Waltz, a US national security advisor, defending the proposal [19].
Analysts, however, assess the agreement in divided terms. For some, it represents a form of economic exploitation at a time of Ukraine's fragility – comparing the demand to share mineral wealth amid war to a scheme of “mafia protection” [19]. Steven Cook, from the Council on Foreign Relations, classified the offer as “extortion,” and political scientist Virginia P. Fortna observed that charging resources from an invaded country resembles predatory practices [19]. Joseph Nye adds that it is a short-term gain strategy that could be “disastrous in the long run” for American credibility, reflecting the transactional approach that Trump even adopted with close allies in other contexts [19]. On the other hand, some see a future advantage for Kyiv: journalist Pierre Briançon suggests that at least this agreement aligns American commercial interests with Ukraine’s future, which could, in theory, keep the US involved in Ukrainian prosperity in the long term [19]. It is even recalled that President Zelensky himself proposed last year the idea of sharing natural resources with the US to bring the interests of the two countries closer together [19].
From the perspective of geopolitical theories, this agreement illustrates a shift towards economic pragmatism in international relations, approaching concepts proposed by Kjellén. Rudolf Kjellén, who coined the term “geopolitics,” saw the State as a territorial organism that seeks to ensure its survival through self-sufficiency and the control of strategic resources [4]. Trump's demand for a share in Ukrainian resources in order to continue supporting the country reflects a logic of autarky and direct national interest – that is, foreign policy serving primarily to reinforce the economic and material position of the US. This view contrasts with the traditional cooperative approach, but aligns with Kjellén’s idea that powerful States tend to transform international relations into opportunities for their own gain, ensuring access to vital raw materials. Similarly, Friedrich Ratzel argued that States have a “propensity to expand their borders according to their capacities,” seeking vital space (Lebensraum) and resources to sustain their development [11]. The US–Ukraine pact, by conditioning military/economic aid on obtaining tangible advantages (half of the mineral profits), is reminiscent of Ratzel’s perspective: the US, as a rising economic power, expands its economic influence over Ukrainian territory like an organism extending itself to obtain the necessary resources for its well-being. It is, therefore, a form of economic expansionism at the expense of purely ideological commitments or collective security.
Peace Negotiations Excluding Ukraine and the Legitimacy of the Agreement
Another controversial point is the manner in which peace negotiations between Russia and the West have been conducted under Trump's administration. Since taking office, the American president has engaged directly with Moscow in pursuit of a ceasefire, deliberately keeping the Ukrainian government out of the initial discussions [6]. Trump expressed his desire to “leave Zelensky out of the conversation” and also excluded the European Union from any influence in the process [6]. This negotiation strategy—conducted without the presence of the primary interested party, Ukraine—raises serious questions about the legitimacy and sustainability of any resulting agreement.
Historically, peace agreements reached without the direct participation of one of the conflicting parties tend to face problems in implementation and acceptance.
The exclusion of Ukraine in the decision-making phase brings to light the issue of guarantees. As noted, the emerging agreement lacks formal US security guarantees for Ukraine. This implies that, after the agreement is signed, nothing will prevent Russia from launching a new offensive if it deems it convenient, knowing that the US has not committed to defending it militarily. Experts have already warned that a ceasefire without robust protection may only be a pause for Russian rearmament, rendering the conflict “frozen” temporarily and potentially resumed in the near future. The European strategic community has expressed similar concern: without American deterrence, the risk of further Russian aggressions in the region increases considerably [1]. Denmark, for example, has released intelligence reports warning of possible imminent Russian attacks, prompting neighboring countries to accelerate plans for independent defense [1].
The legitimacy of this asymmetric peace agreement (negotiated without Ukraine fully at the table and under economic coercion) is also questionable from a legal and moral point of view. It violates the principle of self-determination by imposing terms decided by great powers on a sovereign country—a practice reminiscent of dark chapters in diplomacy, such as the Munich Agreement of 1938, when powers determined the fate of Czechoslovakia without its consent. In the current case, Ukraine would end up signing the agreement, but from a position of weakness, raising doubts about how durable such a commitment would be.
From Mackinder’s perspective, Ukraine’s removal from the battlefield without guarantees essentially means admitting a greater influence of Russia (the Heartland power) over Eastern Europe. This would alter the balance in Eurasia in a potentially lasting way. Furthermore, the fact that great powers negotiate over the heads of a smaller country evokes the imperial logic of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when empires decided among themselves the divisions of foreign territories—a behavior that Mackinder saw as likely in a world of a “closed system.” With the entire world already occupied by States, Mackinder predicted that powers would begin to compete for influence within this consolidated board, often subjugating smaller states to gain advantage [3]. The US–Russia negotiation regarding Ukraine, without proper Ukrainian representation, exemplifies this type of neo-imperial dynamic in the twenty-first century.
Also noteworthy is the consonance with the ideas of Ratzel and Kjellén: both viewed smaller states as easily relegated to the status of satellites or even “parasitic organisms” in the orbit of larger states. Kjellén spoke of the intrinsic vulnerability of states with little territorial depth or economic dependence, making them susceptible to external pressures [4][20]. Ukraine, weakened by war and dependent on external aid, becomes a concrete example of this theorized vulnerability: it has had to cede strategic resources and accept terms dictated against its will in an attempt to secure its immediate survival. The resulting agreement, therefore, reflects a power imbalance characteristic of the hierarchical international relations described by classical geopolitical theorists.
Implicit Territorial Concessions and Trump’s Public Discourse
A central and controversial point in Trump’s statements regarding the war in Ukraine is the insinuation of territorial concessions to Russia as part of the conflict’s resolution. Publicly, Trump avoided explicitly condemning Russian aggression and even stated that he considered it “unlikely” that Ukraine would be able to retake all the areas occupied by the Russians [16]. In debates and interviews, he suggested that “if I were president, the war would end in 24 hours,” implying that he would force an understanding between Kyiv and Moscow that would likely involve ceding some territory in exchange for peace. This position marks a break with the previous US policy of not recognizing any territorial acquisitions made by force and fuels speculations that a future peace agreement sponsored by Trump would legitimize at least part of Russia’s gains since 2014 (Crimea, Donbass, and areas seized during the 2022 invasion).
The actions of his administration corroborate this interpretation. As discussed, the economic agreement focuses on the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources, many of which are located precisely in regions currently under Russian military control, such as parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk, Lugansk, and the Azov Sea area [6]. A Ukrainian geologist, Hanna Liventseva, highlighted that “most of these elements (strategic minerals) are found in the south of the Ukrainian Shield, mainly in the Azov region, and most of these territories are currently invaded by Russia” [6]. This means that, to make joint exploitation viable, Russia’s de facto control over these areas would have to be recognized—or at least tolerated—in the short term. In other words, the pact indirectly and tacitly accepts Russian territorial gains, as it involves sharing the profits from resources that are not currently accessible to the Kyiv government.
Furthermore, figures close to Trump have made explicit statements regarding the possibility of territorial cession. Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, publicly stated that Zelensky might need to “cede land to Russia” to end the war [8]. This remark—made public in March 2025—confirms that the Trump White House considers it natural for Ukraine to relinquish parts of its territory in favor of an agreement. Such a stance marks a break from the previous Western consensus, which condemned any territorial gains by force. Under Trump, a pragmatic view (in the eyes of his supporters) or a cynical one (according to his critics) seems to prevail: sacrificing principles of territorial integrity to quickly end hostilities and secure immediate economic benefits.
In theoretical terms, this inclination to validate territorial gains by force recalls the concept of Realpolitik and the geopolitical Darwinism that influenced thinkers such as Ratzel. In Ratzel’s organic conception, expanding states naturally absorb neighboring territories when they are strong enough to do so, while declining states lose territory—a process almost biological in the selection of the fittest [11]. The Trump administration’s acceptance that Ukraine should “give something” to Moscow to seal peace reflects a normalization of this geopolitical selection process: it recognizes the aggressor (Russia) as having the “right” to retain conquered lands, because that is how power realities on the ground dictate. Mackinder, although firmly opposed to allowing Russia to dominate the Heartland, would see this outcome as the logical consequence of the lack of engagement from maritime powers (the USA and the United Kingdom, for example) in sustaining the Ukrainian counterattack. Without the active involvement of maritime power to balance the dispute, land power prevails in Eastern Europe.
From the perspective of international legitimacy, the cession of Ukrainian territories—whether de jure or de facto—creates a dangerous precedent in the post-Cold War era. Rewarding violent aggression with territorial gains may encourage similar strategies in other parts of the world, undermining the architecture of collective security. This is possibly a return to a world of spheres of influence, where great powers define borders and zones of control according to their convenience—something that the rules-based order after 1945 sought to avoid. Here, academic impartiality requires noting that coercion for territorial concessions rarely produces lasting peace, as the aggrieved party—in this case, Ukraine—may accept temporarily but will continue to assert its rights in the long term, as has occurred with other territorial injustices in history.
Territorial Ambitions of Trump: Greenland and Canada
Beyond the Eurasian theater of war, Trump revived geopolitical ambitions involving territories traditionally allied with the US: Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark) and Canada. As early as 2019, during his first term, Trump shocked the world by proposing to buy Greenland—rich in minerals and strategically positioned in the Arctic. Upon his return to power, he went further: expressing a “renewed interest” in acquiring Greenland and publicly suggesting the incorporation of Canada as the 51st American state [2].
In January 2025, during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, he even displayed maps in which the US and Canada appeared merged into a single country, while Greenland was marked as a future American possession [2]. Posts by the president on social media included satirical images with a map of North America where Canada was labeled “51st” and Greenland designated as “Our Land” [2].
Such moves were met with concern and disbelief by allies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on an open microphone warning that Trump’s fixation on annexation “is real” and not just a joke [7]. Trudeau emphasized that Washington appeared to covet Canada’s vast mineral resources, which would explain the insistence on the idea of absorption [7]. In public, Trump argued that Canadians “would be more prosperous as American citizens,” promising tax cuts and better services should they become part of the US [7]. On the Danish side, the reaction to the revived plan regarding Greenland was firmly negative—as it was in 2019—reaffirming that the territory is not for sale. Trump, however, insinuated that the issue might be one of national security, indicating that American possession of Greenland would prevent adverse influences (a reference to China and Russia in the Arctic) [2]. More worryingly, he refused to rule out the use of military means to obtain the island, although he assured that he had no intention of invading Canada by force (in the Canadian case, he spoke of “economic force” to forge a union) [2].
This series of initiatives reflects an unprecedented expansionist impetus by the US in recent times, at least in discourse. Analyzing this through the lens of classical geopolitics offers interesting insights. Friedrich Ratzel and his notion of Lebensraum suggest that powerful states, upon reaching a certain predominance, seek to expand their territory by influencing or incorporating adjacent areas. Trump, by targeting the immediate neighbor (Canada) and a nearby strategic territory (Greenland), appears to resurrect this logic of territorial expansion for the sake of gaining space and resources. Ratzel saw such expansion almost as a natural process for vigorous states, comparable to the growth of an organism [11]. From this perspective, the US would be exercising its “right” of expansion in North America and the polar region, integrating areas of vital interest.
Additionally, Alfred Mahan’s view on maritime power helps to understand the strategic value of Greenland. Mahan postulated that control of key maritime chokepoints and naval bases ensures global advantage [9]. Greenland, situated between the North Atlantic and the Arctic, has become increasingly relevant as climate change opens new polar maritime routes and reveals vast mineral deposits (including rare earth elements and oil). For the US, having a presence or sovereignty over Greenland would mean dominating the gateway to the Arctic and denying this space to rivals. This aligns with Mahan’s strategy of securing commercial and military routes (in this case, potential Arctic routes) and resources to consolidate naval supremacy. On the other hand, the incorporation of Canada—with its enormous territory, Arctic coastline, and abundant natural resources—would provide the US with formidable geoeconomic and geopolitical reinforcement, practically eliminating vulnerabilities along its northern border. This is an ambitious project that also echoes ideas of Kjellén, for whom an ideal State should seek territorial completeness and economic self-sufficiency within its region. Incorporating Canada would be the pinnacle of American regional autarky, turning North America into a unified bloc under Washington (a scenario reminiscent of the “pan-regions” conceived by twentieth-century geopoliticians influenced by Kjellén).
It is important to note, however, that these ambitions face enormous legal and political obstacles. The sovereignty of Canada and Greenland (Denmark) is guaranteed by international law, and both peoples categorically reject the idea of annexation. Any hostile action by the US against these countries would shake alliances and the world order itself. Even so, the very fact that an American president suggests such possibilities already produces geopolitical effects: traditional partners begin to distrust Washington’s intentions, seek alternative alliances, and strengthen nationalist discourses of resistance. In summary, Trump’s expansionist intentions in Greenland and Canada rekindle old territorial issues and paradoxically place the US in the position of a revisionist power—a role once associated with empires in search of colonies.
Implications for Brazil and South America: A New Neocolonization?
In light of this geopolitical reconfiguration driven by Trump's USA—with a reordering of alliances and a possible partition of spheres of influence among great powers—the question arises: what is the impact on Brazil and the other countries of South America? Traditionally, Latin America has been under the aegis of the Monroe Doctrine (1823), which established non-interference by Europe in the region and, implicitly, the primacy of the USA in the Western Hemisphere. In the post–Cold War period, this influence translated more into political and economic leadership, without formal annexations or direct territorial domination. However, the current context points to a kind of “neocolonization” of the Global South, in which larger powers seek to control resources and peripheral governments in an indirect yet effective manner.
Mackinder’s theories can be used to illuminate this dynamic. As mentioned, Mackinder envisioned the twentieth-century world as a closed system, in which there were no longer any unknown lands to be colonized—hence, the powers would fight among themselves for control over already occupied regions [3]. He predicted that Africa and Latin America (then largely European colonies or semi-colonies) would continue as boards upon which the great powers would project their disputes, a form of neocolonialism. In the current scenario, we see the USA proposing exchanges of protection for resources (as in Ukraine) and even leaders of developing countries seeking similar agreements. A notable example: the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, praised the USA–Ukraine initiative and suggested an analogous agreement involving Congolese mineral wealth in exchange for US support against internal rebels (M23) [19]. In other words, African countries and possibly South American ones may enter into this logic of offering privileged access to resources (cobalt, lithium, food, biodiversity) in order to obtain security guarantees or investments. This represents a regression to the times when external powers dictated the directions of the South in exchange for promises of protection, characterizing a strategic neocolonialism.
For Brazil, in particular, this rearrangement generates both opportunities and risks. As a regional power with considerable diplomatic autonomy, Brazil has historically sought to balance relationships with the USA, Europe, China, and other actors, avoiding automatic alignments. However, in a world where Trump’s USA is actively redefining spheres of influence—possibly making deals with Russia that divide priorities (for example, Washington focusing on the Western Hemisphere and Moscow on the Eastern)—South America could once again be seen as an exclusive American sphere of influence. From this perspective, Washington could pressure South American countries to align with its directives, limiting partnerships with rivals (such as China) and seeking privileged access to strategic resources (such as the Amazon, fresh water, minerals, and agricultural commodities). Some indications are already emerging: Trump’s transactional approach mentioned by Nye included pressures on Canada and Mexico regarding border and trade issues, under the threat of commercial sanctions. It would not be unthinkable to adopt a hard line, for example, with regard to Brazilian environmental policies (linked to the Amazon) or Brazil’s relations with China, using tariffs or incentives as leverage—a sort of geopolitics of economic coercion.
On the other hand, Brazil and its neighbors could also attempt to take advantage of the Sino–North American competition. If the USA is distracted consolidating its hemispheric “hard power” hegemony (even with annexation fantasies in the north), powers such as China may advance their economic presence in South America through investments and trade (Belt and Road, infrastructure financing)—which is already happening. This would constitute an indirect neocolonial dispute in the South: Chinese loans and investments versus American demands and agreements, partly reminiscent of the nineteenth-century imperial competition (when the United Kingdom, USA, and others competed for Latin American markets and resources).
From a conceptual standpoint, Mackinder might classify South America as part of the “Outer Crescent” (external insular crescent)—peripheral to the great Eurasian “World-Island,” yet still crucial as a source of resources and a strategic position in the South Atlantic and Pacific. If the USA consolidates an informal empire in the Americas, it would be reinforcing its “insular bastion” far from the Eurasian Heartland, a strategy that Mackinder once suggested for maritime powers: to control islands and peripheral continents to compensate for the disadvantage of not controlling the Heartland. However, an excessive US dominance in the South could lead to local resistance and alternative alignments, unbalancing the region.
Kjellén would add that for Brazil to maintain its decisive sovereignty, it will need to strengthen its autarky and internal cohesion—in other words, reduce vulnerabilities (economic, military, social) that external powers might exploit [4]. Meanwhile, Mahan might point out the importance for Brazil of controlling its maritime routes and coastlines (South Atlantic) to avoid being at the mercy of a naval power like the USA. And Ratzel would remind us that states that do not expand their influence tend to be absorbed by foreign influences—which, in the context of Brazil, does not mean conquering neighboring territories, but rather actively leading South American integration to create a block more resilient to external intrusion.
In summary, South America finds itself in a more competitive and segmented world, where major players are resurrecting practices from past eras. The notion of “neocolonization” here does not imply direct occupation, but rather mechanisms of dependency: whether through unequal economic agreements or through diplomatic or military pressure for alignment. Brazil, as the largest economy and territory on the subcontinent, will have to navigate with heightened caution. A new global power balance, marked by the division of spheres of influence among the USA, China, and Russia, may reduce the sovereign maneuvering space of South American countries unless they act jointly. Thus, theoretical reflection suggests the need for South–South strategies, reinforcement of regional organizations, and diversification of partnerships to avoid falling into modern “neocolonial traps.”
Conclusion
The emerging post–re-election geopolitical conjuncture of Donald Trump signals a return to classical geopolitical principles, after several decades of predominance of institutional liberal views. We witness the revaluation of concepts such as spheres of influence, exchanges of protection for resources, naval power versus land power, and disputes over territory and raw materials—all central themes in the writings of Mackinder, Mahan, Kjellén, and Ratzel at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. An impartial analysis of these events, in light of these theories, shows internal coherence in Trump’s actions: although controversial, they follow a logic of maximizing national interest and the relative power of the USA on the world stage, even at the expense of established principles and alliances.
Halford Mackinder reminds us that, in a closed world with no new lands to conquer, the great powers will seek to redistribute the world among themselves [3]. This seems to manifest in the direct understandings between the USA and Russia over the fate of Ukraine, and in American ambitions in the Arctic and the Western Hemisphere. Alfred Mahan emphasizes that the control of the seas and strategic positions ensures supremacy—we see reflections of this in Trump’s obsession with Greenland (Arctic) and the possible neglect of the importance of maintaining NATO (and therefore the North Atlantic) as a cohesive bloc, something that Mahan’s theory would criticize due to the risk of a naval vacuum. Rudolf Kjellén and Friedrich Ratzel provide the framework to understand the more aggressive facet of expansionist nationalism: the idea of the State as an organism that needs to grow, secure resources, and seek self-sufficiency explains everything from the extortionate agreement imposed on Ukraine to the annexation rhetoric regarding Canada.
The potential consequences are profound. In the short term, we may witness a precarious ceasefire in the Ukraine war, with consolidated Russian territorial gains and Ukraine economically tied to the USA, but without formal military protection—a fragile “armed peace.” Western Europe, alarmed, may accelerate its independent militarization, perhaps marking the beginning of European defense autonomy, as is already openly debated [1]. At the far end of the globe, American activism in the Arctic and the Americas may reshape alliances: countries like Canada, once aligned with Washington, might seek to guarantee their sovereignty by distancing themselves from it; powers like China could take advantage of the openings to increase their presence in Latin America and Africa through economic diplomacy; and emerging countries of the Global South may have to choose between submitting to new “guardianships” or strengthening South–South cooperation.
Ultimately, the current situation reinforces the relevance of studying geopolitics through historical lenses. The actions of the Trump administration indicate that, despite all technological and normative advances, the competition for geographic power has not disappeared—it has merely assumed new formats. Academic impartiality obliges us not to prematurely judge whether these strategies will be successful or beneficial, but history and theory warn that neo-imperial movements tend to generate counter-reactions. As Mackinder insinuated, “every shock or change anywhere reverberates around the world,” and a sudden move by a superpower tends to provoke unforeseen adjustments and chain conflicts. It remains to be seen how the other actors—including Brazil and its neighbors—will adapt to this new chapter in the great struggle for global power, in which centuries-old theories once again have a surprising explanatory power over present events.
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@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8
2025-05-24 22:05:00🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom
Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.
Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
“Education increases conviction.
Conviction increases allocation.
Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi
https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg
On the 12th of May:
➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."
https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg
➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.
➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '
On the 13th of May:
➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg
➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.
➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."
➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.
➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News
➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.
➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.
➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.
➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.
➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.
Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...
➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.
➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."
Well, here you go.
Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg
Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.
I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.
It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.
And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...
DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!
Clear!
➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:
10th percentile: 33%
25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%
Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:
Gold: 17%
Silver: 20%
S&P 500: 24%
Apple: 52%
Two lessons here:
1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.
2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'
https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg
➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.
➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.
On the 14th of May:
➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.
➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.
➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."
➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.
➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC
On the 15th of May:
➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.
➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.
➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.
➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.
On the 16th of May:
➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".
➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.
➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger
➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg
On the 17th of May:
➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.
Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:
63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.
13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)
Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025
Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.
On the 18th of May:
➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg
On the 19th of May.
➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...
'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:
7 independent reports
20 peer-reviewed papers
As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755
➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.
If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.
If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.
HFSP, bondcucks!'
I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha
➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR
If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.
➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.
➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.
➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project
"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"
Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg
➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.
➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.
➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked
https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
On the 12th of May:
👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.
On the 13th of May:
👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 12th of May:
👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.
👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.
👉🏽'Truly incredible:
- Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
- Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
- Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL
President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.
👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:
👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg
On the 13th of May:
👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds
Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."
Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.
👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.
👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"
Kinda obvious, innit?
👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.
On the 14th of May:
👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.
A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL
On the 15th of May:
👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png
On the 16th of May:
👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL
👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL
👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL
Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.
Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.
https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg
RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.
👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor
https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png
On the 18th of May:
👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg
On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png
👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'
🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:
What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis
'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'
https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.
Use the code SE3997
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀
⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you?
If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.
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⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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-
@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43
2025-05-18 04:14:48Abstract
This document proposes a novel architecture that decouples the peer-to-peer (P2P) communication layer from the Bitcoin protocol and replaces or augments it with the Nostr protocol. The goal is to improve censorship resistance, performance, modularity, and maintainability by migrating transaction propagation and block distribution to the Nostr relay network.
Introduction
Bitcoin’s current architecture relies heavily on its P2P network to propagate transactions and blocks. While robust, it has limitations in terms of flexibility, scalability, and censorship resistance in certain environments. Nostr, a decentralized event-publishing protocol, offers a multi-star topology and a censorship-resistant infrastructure for message relay.
This proposal outlines how Bitcoin communication could be ported to Nostr while maintaining consensus and verification through standard Bitcoin clients.
Motivation
- Enhanced Censorship Resistance: Nostr’s architecture enables better relay redundancy and obfuscation of transaction origin.
- Simplified Lightweight Nodes: Removing the full P2P stack allows for lightweight nodes that only verify blockchain data and communicate over Nostr.
- Architectural Modularity: Clean separation between validation and communication enables easier auditing, upgrades, and parallel innovation.
- Faster Propagation: Nostr’s multi-star network may provide faster propagation of transactions and blocks compared to the mesh-like Bitcoin P2P network.
Architecture Overview
Components
-
Bitcoin Minimal Node (BMN):
- Verifies blockchain and block validity.
- Maintains UTXO set and handles mempool logic.
- Connects to Nostr relays instead of P2P Bitcoin peers.
-
Bridge Node:
- Bridges Bitcoin P2P traffic to and from Nostr relays.
- Posts new transactions and blocks to Nostr.
- Downloads mempool content and block headers from Nostr.
-
Nostr Relays:
- Accept Bitcoin-specific event kinds (transactions and blocks).
- Store mempool entries and block messages.
- Optionally broadcast fee estimation summaries and tipsets.
Event Format
Proposed reserved Nostr
kind
numbers for Bitcoin content (NIP/BIP TBD):| Nostr Kind | Purpose | |------------|------------------------| | 210000 | Bitcoin Transaction | | 210001 | Bitcoin Block Header | | 210002 | Bitcoin Block | | 210003 | Mempool Fee Estimates | | 210004 | Filter/UTXO summary |
Transaction Lifecycle
- Wallet creates a Bitcoin transaction.
- Wallet sends it to a set of configured Nostr relays.
- Relays accept and cache the transaction (based on fee policies).
- Mining nodes or bridge nodes fetch mempool contents from Nostr.
- Once mined, a block is submitted over Nostr.
- Nodes confirm inclusion and update their UTXO set.
Security Considerations
- Sybil Resistance: Consensus remains based on proof-of-work. The communication path (Nostr) is not involved in consensus.
- Relay Discoverability: Optionally bootstrap via DNS, Bitcoin P2P, or signed relay lists.
- Spam Protection: Relay-side policy, rate limiting, proof-of-work challenges, or Lightning payments.
- Block Authenticity: Nodes must verify all received blocks and reject invalid chains.
Compatibility and Migration
- Fully compatible with current Bitcoin consensus rules.
- Bridge nodes preserve interoperability with legacy full nodes.
- Nodes can run in hybrid mode, fetching from both P2P and Nostr.
Future Work
- Integration with watch-only wallets and SPV clients using verified headers via Nostr.
- Use of Nostr’s social graph for partial trust assumptions and relay reputation.
- Dynamic relay discovery using Nostr itself (relay list events).
Conclusion
This proposal lays out a new architecture for Bitcoin communication using Nostr to replace or augment the P2P network. This improves decentralization, censorship resistance, modularity, and speed, while preserving consensus integrity. It encourages innovation by enabling smaller, purpose-built Bitcoin nodes and offloading networking complexity.
This document may become both a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP-XXX) and a Nostr Improvement Proposal (NIP-XXX). Event kind range reserved: 210000–219999.
-
@ 6389be64:ef439d32
2025-05-24 21:51:47Most nematodes are beneficial and "graze" on black vine weevil, currant borer moth, fungus gnats, other weevils, scarabs, cutworms, webworms, billbugs, mole crickets, termites, peach tree borer and carpenter worm moths.
They also predate bacteria, recycling nutrients back into the soil and by doing so stimulates bacterial activity. They act as microbial taxis by transporting microbes to new locations of soil as they move through it while providing aeration.
https://stacker.news/items/988573
-
@ 58537364:705b4b85
2025-05-24 20:48:43“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.
The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.
The key types of thinking are:
- Thinking to acquire knowledge
- Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.
In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)
Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”
— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”
Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.
“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.
Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”
— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)
-
@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-03-07 01:47:15
A comprehensive system for archiving and managing large datasets efficiently on Linux.
1. Planning Your Data Archiving Strategy
Before starting, define the structure of your archive:
✅ What are you storing? Books, PDFs, videos, software, research papers, backups, etc.
✅ How often will you access the data? Frequently accessed data should be on SSDs, while deep archives can remain on HDDs.
✅ What organization method will you use? Folder hierarchy and indexing are critical for retrieval.
2. Choosing the Right Storage Setup
Since you plan to use 2TB HDDs and store them away, here are Linux-friendly storage solutions:
📀 Offline Storage: Hard Drives & Optical Media
✔ External HDDs (2TB each) – Use
ext4
orXFS
for best performance.
✔ M-DISC Blu-rays (100GB per disc) – Excellent for long-term storage.
✔ SSD (for fast access archives) – More durable than HDDs but pricier.🛠 Best Practices for Hard Drive Storage on Linux
🔹 Use
smartctl
to monitor drive health
bash sudo apt install smartmontools sudo smartctl -a /dev/sdX
🔹 Store drives vertically in anti-static bags.
🔹 Rotate drives periodically to prevent degradation.
🔹 Keep in a cool, dry, dark place.☁ Cloud Backup (Optional)
✔ Arweave – Decentralized storage for public data.
✔ rclone + Backblaze B2/Wasabi – Cheap, encrypted backups.
✔ Self-hosted options – Nextcloud, Syncthing, IPFS.
3. Organizing and Indexing Your Data
📂 Folder Structure (Linux-Friendly)
Use a clear hierarchy:
plaintext 📁 /mnt/archive/ 📁 Books/ 📁 Fiction/ 📁 Non-Fiction/ 📁 Software/ 📁 Research_Papers/ 📁 Backups/
💡 Use YYYY-MM-DD format for filenames
✅2025-01-01_Backup_ProjectX.tar.gz
✅2024_Complete_Library_Fiction.epub
📑 Indexing Your Archives
Use Linux tools to catalog your archive:
✔ Generate a file index of a drive:
bash find /mnt/DriveX > ~/Indexes/DriveX_index.txt
✔ Use
locate
for fast searches:
bash sudo updatedb # Update database locate filename
✔ Use
Recoll
for full-text search:
bash sudo apt install recoll recoll
🚀 Store index files on a "Master Archive Index" USB drive.
4. Compressing & Deduplicating Data
To save space and remove duplicates, use:
✔ Compression Tools:
-tar -cvf archive.tar folder/ && zstd archive.tar
(fast, modern compression)
-7z a archive.7z folder/
(best for text-heavy files)✔ Deduplication Tools:
-fdupes -r /mnt/archive/
(finds duplicate files)
-rdfind -deleteduplicates true /mnt/archive/
(removes duplicates automatically)💡 Use
par2
to create parity files for recovery:
bash par2 create -r10 file.par2 file.ext
This helps reconstruct corrupted archives.
5. Ensuring Long-Term Data Integrity
Data can degrade over time. Use checksums to verify files.
✔ Generate Checksums:
bash sha256sum filename.ext > filename.sha256
✔ Verify Data Integrity Periodically:
bash sha256sum -c filename.sha256
🔹 Use
SnapRAID
for multi-disk redundancy:
bash sudo apt install snapraid snapraid sync snapraid scrub
🔹 Consider ZFS or Btrfs for automatic error correction:
bash sudo apt install zfsutils-linux zpool create archivepool /dev/sdX
6. Accessing Your Data Efficiently
Even when archived, you may need to access files quickly.
✔ Use Symbolic Links to "fake" files still being on your system:
bash ln -s /mnt/driveX/mybook.pdf ~/Documents/
✔ Use a Local Search Engine (Recoll
):
bash recoll
✔ Search within text files usinggrep
:
bash grep -rnw '/mnt/archive/' -e 'Bitcoin'
7. Scaling Up & Expanding Your Archive
Since you're storing 2TB drives and setting them aside, keep them numbered and logged.
📦 Physical Storage & Labeling
✔ Store each drive in fireproof safe or waterproof cases.
✔ Label drives (Drive_001
,Drive_002
, etc.).
✔ Maintain a printed master list of drive contents.📶 Network Storage for Easy Access
If your archive grows too large, consider:
- NAS (TrueNAS, OpenMediaVault) – Linux-based network storage.
- JBOD (Just a Bunch of Disks) – Cheap and easy expansion.
- Deduplicated Storage –ZFS
/Btrfs
with auto-checksumming.
8. Automating Your Archival Process
If you frequently update your archive, automation is essential.
✔ Backup Scripts (Linux)
Use
rsync
for incremental backups:bash rsync -av --progress /source/ /mnt/archive/
Automate Backup with Cron Jobs
bash crontab -e
Add:plaintext 0 3 * * * rsync -av --delete /source/ /mnt/archive/
This runs the backup every night at 3 AM.Automate Index Updates
bash 0 4 * * * find /mnt/archive > ~/Indexes/master_index.txt
So Making These Considerations
✔ Be Consistent – Maintain a structured system.
✔ Test Your Backups – Ensure archives are not corrupted before deleting originals.
✔ Plan for Growth – Maintain an efficient catalog as data expands.For data hoarders seeking reliable 2TB storage solutions and appropriate physical storage containers, here's a comprehensive overview:
2TB Storage Options
1. Hard Disk Drives (HDDs):
-
Western Digital My Book Series: These external HDDs are designed to resemble a standard black hardback book. They come in various editions, such as Essential, Premium, and Studio, catering to different user needs. citeturn0search19
-
Seagate Barracuda Series: Known for affordability and performance, these HDDs are suitable for general usage, including data hoarding. They offer storage capacities ranging from 500GB to 8TB, with speeds up to 190MB/s. citeturn0search20
2. Solid State Drives (SSDs):
- Seagate Barracuda SSDs: These SSDs come with either SATA or NVMe interfaces, storage sizes from 240GB to 2TB, and read speeds up to 560MB/s for SATA and 3,400MB/s for NVMe. They are ideal for faster data access and reliability. citeturn0search20
3. Network Attached Storage (NAS) Drives:
- Seagate IronWolf Series: Designed for NAS devices, these drives offer HDD storage capacities from 1TB to 20TB and SSD capacities from 240GB to 4TB. They are optimized for multi-user environments and continuous operation. citeturn0search20
Physical Storage Containers for 2TB Drives
Proper storage of your drives is crucial to ensure data integrity and longevity. Here are some recommendations:
1. Anti-Static Bags:
Essential for protecting drives from electrostatic discharge, especially during handling and transportation.
2. Protective Cases:
- Hard Drive Carrying Cases: These cases offer padded compartments to securely hold individual drives, protecting them from physical shocks and environmental factors.
3. Storage Boxes:
- Anti-Static Storage Boxes: Designed to hold multiple drives, these boxes provide organized storage with anti-static protection, ideal for archiving purposes.
4. Drive Caddies and Enclosures:
- HDD/SSD Enclosures: These allow internal drives to function as external drives, offering both protection and versatility in connectivity.
5. Fireproof and Waterproof Safes:
For long-term storage, consider safes that protect against environmental hazards, ensuring data preservation even in adverse conditions.
Storage Tips:
-
Labeling: Clearly label each drive with its contents and date of storage for easy identification.
-
Climate Control: Store drives in a cool, dry environment to prevent data degradation over time.
By selecting appropriate 2TB storage solutions and ensuring they are stored in suitable containers, you can effectively manage and protect your data hoard.
Here’s a set of custom Bash scripts to automate your archival workflow on Linux:
1️⃣ Compression & Archiving Script
This script compresses and archives files, organizing them by date.
```bash!/bin/bash
Compress and archive files into dated folders
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" DATE=$(date +"%Y-%m-%d") BACKUP_DIR="$ARCHIVE_DIR/$DATE"
mkdir -p "$BACKUP_DIR"
Find and compress files
find ~/Documents -type f -mtime -7 -print0 | tar --null -czvf "$BACKUP_DIR/archive.tar.gz" --files-from -
echo "Backup completed: $BACKUP_DIR/archive.tar.gz" ```
2️⃣ Indexing Script
This script creates a list of all archived files and saves it for easy lookup.
```bash!/bin/bash
Generate an index file for all backups
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" INDEX_FILE="$ARCHIVE_DIR/index.txt"
find "$ARCHIVE_DIR" -type f -name "*.tar.gz" > "$INDEX_FILE"
echo "Index file updated: $INDEX_FILE" ```
3️⃣ Storage Space Monitor
This script alerts you if the disk usage exceeds 90%.
```bash!/bin/bash
Monitor storage usage
THRESHOLD=90 USAGE=$(df -h | grep '/mnt/backup' | awk '{print $5}' | sed 's/%//')
if [ "$USAGE" -gt "$THRESHOLD" ]; then echo "WARNING: Disk usage at $USAGE%!" fi ```
4️⃣ Automatic HDD Swap Alert
This script checks if a new 2TB drive is connected and notifies you.
```bash!/bin/bash
Detect new drives and notify
WATCHED_SIZE="2T" DEVICE=$(lsblk -dn -o NAME,SIZE | grep "$WATCHED_SIZE" | awk '{print $1}')
if [ -n "$DEVICE" ]; then echo "New 2TB drive detected: /dev/$DEVICE" fi ```
5️⃣ Symbolic Link Organizer
This script creates symlinks to easily access archived files from a single directory.
```bash!/bin/bash
Organize files using symbolic links
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" LINK_DIR="$HOME/Archive_Links"
mkdir -p "$LINK_DIR" ln -s "$ARCHIVE_DIR"//.tar.gz "$LINK_DIR/"
echo "Symbolic links updated in $LINK_DIR" ```
🔥 How to Use These Scripts:
- Save each script as a
.sh
file. - Make them executable using:
bash chmod +x script_name.sh
- Run manually or set up a cron job for automation:
bash crontab -e
Add this line to run the backup every Sunday at midnight:
bash 0 0 * * 0 /path/to/backup_script.sh
Here's a Bash script to encrypt your backups using GPG (GnuPG) for strong encryption. 🚀
🔐 Backup & Encrypt Script
This script will:
✅ Compress files into an archive
✅ Encrypt it using GPG
✅ Store it in a secure location```bash
!/bin/bash
Backup and encrypt script
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" DATE=$(date +"%Y-%m-%d") BACKUP_FILE="$ARCHIVE_DIR/backup_$DATE.tar.gz" ENCRYPTED_FILE="$BACKUP_FILE.gpg" GPG_RECIPIENT="your@email.com" # Change this to your GPG key or use --symmetric for password-based encryption
mkdir -p "$ARCHIVE_DIR"
Compress files
tar -czvf "$BACKUP_FILE" ~/Documents
Encrypt the backup using GPG
gpg --output "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" --encrypt --recipient "$GPG_RECIPIENT" "$BACKUP_FILE"
Verify encryption success
if [ -f "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" ]; then echo "Backup encrypted successfully: $ENCRYPTED_FILE" rm "$BACKUP_FILE" # Remove unencrypted file for security else echo "Encryption failed!" fi ```
🔓 Decrypting a Backup
To restore a backup, run:
bash gpg --decrypt --output backup.tar.gz backup_YYYY-MM-DD.tar.gz.gpg tar -xzvf backup.tar.gz
🔁 Automating with Cron
To run this script every Sunday at midnight:
bash crontab -e
Add this line:
bash 0 0 * * 0 /path/to/encrypt_backup.sh
🔐 Backup & Encrypt Script (Password-Based)
This script:
✅ Compresses files into an archive
✅ Encrypts them using GPG with a passphrase
✅ Stores them in a secure location```bash
!/bin/bash
Backup and encrypt script (password-based)
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" DATE=$(date +"%Y-%m-%d") BACKUP_FILE="$ARCHIVE_DIR/backup_$DATE.tar.gz" ENCRYPTED_FILE="$BACKUP_FILE.gpg" PASSPHRASE="YourStrongPassphraseHere" # Change this!
mkdir -p "$ARCHIVE_DIR"
Compress files
tar -czvf "$BACKUP_FILE" ~/Documents
Encrypt the backup with a password
gpg --batch --yes --passphrase "$PASSPHRASE" --symmetric --cipher-algo AES256 --output "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" "$BACKUP_FILE"
Verify encryption success
if [ -f "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" ]; then echo "Backup encrypted successfully: $ENCRYPTED_FILE" rm "$BACKUP_FILE" # Remove unencrypted file for security else echo "Encryption failed!" fi ```
🔓 Decrypting a Backup
To restore a backup, run:
bash gpg --batch --yes --passphrase "YourStrongPassphraseHere" --decrypt --output backup.tar.gz backup_YYYY-MM-DD.tar.gz.gpg tar -xzvf backup.tar.gz
🔁 Automating with Cron
To run this script every Sunday at midnight:
bash crontab -e
Add this line:
bash 0 0 * * 0 /path/to/encrypt_backup.sh
🔥 Security Best Practices
- Do NOT hardcode the password in the script. Instead, store it in a secure location like a
.gpg-pass
file and use:
bash PASSPHRASE=$(cat /path/to/.gpg-pass)
- Use a strong passphrase with at least 16+ characters.
- Consider using a hardware security key or YubiKey for extra security.
Here's how you can add automatic cloud syncing to your encrypted backups. This script will sync your encrypted backups to a cloud storage service like Rsync, Dropbox, or Nextcloud using the rclone tool, which is compatible with many cloud providers.
Step 1: Install rclone
First, you need to install
rclone
if you haven't already. It’s a powerful tool for managing cloud storage.-
Install rclone:
bash curl https://rclone.org/install.sh | sudo bash
-
Configure rclone with your cloud provider (e.g., Google Drive):
bash rclone config
Follow the prompts to set up your cloud provider. After configuration, you'll have a "remote" (e.g.,
rsync
for https://rsync.net) to use in the script.
🔐 Backup, Encrypt, and Sync to Cloud Script
This script will: ✅ Compress files into an archive
✅ Encrypt them with a password
✅ Sync the encrypted backup to the cloud storage```bash
!/bin/bash
Backup, encrypt, and sync to cloud script (password-based)
ARCHIVE_DIR="/mnt/backup" DATE=$(date +"%Y-%m-%d") BACKUP_FILE="$ARCHIVE_DIR/backup_$DATE.tar.gz" ENCRYPTED_FILE="$BACKUP_FILE.gpg" PASSPHRASE="YourStrongPassphraseHere" # Change this!
Cloud configuration (rclone remote name)
CLOUD_REMOTE="gdrive" # Change this to your remote name (e.g., 'gdrive', 'dropbox', 'nextcloud') CLOUD_DIR="backups" # Cloud directory where backups will be stored
mkdir -p "$ARCHIVE_DIR"
Compress files
tar -czvf "$BACKUP_FILE" ~/Documents
Encrypt the backup with a password
gpg --batch --yes --passphrase "$PASSPHRASE" --symmetric --cipher-algo AES256 --output "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" "$BACKUP_FILE"
Verify encryption success
if [ -f "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" ]; then echo "Backup encrypted successfully: $ENCRYPTED_FILE" rm "$BACKUP_FILE" # Remove unencrypted file for security
# Sync the encrypted backup to the cloud using rclone rclone copy "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" "$CLOUD_REMOTE:$CLOUD_DIR" --progress # Verify sync success if [ $? -eq 0 ]; then echo "Backup successfully synced to cloud: $CLOUD_REMOTE:$CLOUD_DIR" rm "$ENCRYPTED_FILE" # Remove local backup after syncing else echo "Cloud sync failed!" fi
else echo "Encryption failed!" fi ```
How to Use the Script:
- Edit the script:
- Change the
PASSPHRASE
to a secure passphrase. - Change
CLOUD_REMOTE
to your cloud provider’s rclone remote name (e.g.,gdrive
,dropbox
). -
Change
CLOUD_DIR
to the cloud folder where you'd like to store the backup. -
Set up a cron job for automatic backups:
- To run the backup every Sunday at midnight, add this line to your crontab:
bash crontab -e
Add:
bash 0 0 * * 0 /path/to/backup_encrypt_sync.sh
🔥 Security Tips:
- Store the passphrase securely (e.g., use a
.gpg-pass
file withcat /path/to/.gpg-pass
). - Use rclone's encryption feature for sensitive data in the cloud if you want to encrypt before uploading.
- Use multiple cloud services (e.g., Google Drive and Dropbox) for redundancy.
📌 START → **Planning Your Data Archiving Strategy**
├── What type of data? (Docs, Media, Code, etc.)
├── How often will you need access? (Daily, Monthly, Rarely)
├── Choose storage type: SSD (fast), HDD (cheap), Tape (long-term)
├── Plan directory structure (YYYY-MM-DD, Category-Based, etc.)
└── Define retention policy (Keep Forever? Auto-Delete After X Years?)
↓📌 Choosing the Right Storage & Filesystem
├── Local storage: (ext4, XFS, Btrfs, ZFS for snapshots)
├── Network storage: (NAS, Nextcloud, Syncthing)
├── Cold storage: (M-DISC, Tape Backup, External HDD)
├── Redundancy: (RAID, SnapRAID, ZFS Mirror, Cloud Sync)
└── Encryption: (LUKS, VeraCrypt, age, gocryptfs)
↓📌 Organizing & Indexing Data
├── Folder structure: (YYYY/MM/Project-Based)
├── Metadata tagging: (exiftool, Recoll, TagSpaces)
├── Search tools: (fd, fzf, locate, grep)
├── Deduplication: (rdfind, fdupes, hardlinking)
└── Checksum integrity: (sha256sum, blake3)
↓📌 Compression & Space Optimization
├── Use compression (tar, zip, 7z, zstd, btrfs/zfs compression)
├── Remove duplicate files (rsync, fdupes, rdfind)
├── Store archives in efficient formats (ISO, SquashFS, borg)
├── Use incremental backups (rsync, BorgBackup, Restic)
└── Verify archive integrity (sha256sum, snapraid sync)
↓📌 Ensuring Long-Term Data Integrity
├── Check data periodically (snapraid scrub, btrfs scrub)
├── Refresh storage media every 3-5 years (HDD, Tape)
├── Protect against bit rot (ZFS/Btrfs checksums, ECC RAM)
├── Store backup keys & logs separately (Paper, YubiKey, Trezor)
└── Use redundant backups (3-2-1 Rule: 3 copies, 2 locations, 1 offsite)
↓📌 Accessing Data Efficiently
├── Use symbolic links & bind mounts for easy access
├── Implement full-text search (Recoll, Apache Solr, Meilisearch)
├── Set up a file index database (mlocate, updatedb)
├── Utilize file previews (nnn, ranger, vifm)
└── Configure network file access (SFTP, NFS, Samba, WebDAV)
↓📌 Scaling & Expanding Your Archive
├── Move old data to slower storage (HDD, Tape, Cloud)
├── Upgrade storage (LVM expansion, RAID, NAS upgrades)
├── Automate archival processes (cron jobs, systemd timers)
├── Optimize backups for large datasets (rsync --link-dest, BorgBackup)
└── Add redundancy as data grows (RAID, additional HDDs)
↓📌 Automating the Archival Process
├── Schedule regular backups (cron, systemd, Ansible)
├── Auto-sync to offsite storage (rclone, Syncthing, Nextcloud)
├── Monitor storage health (smartctl, btrfs/ZFS scrub, netdata)
├── Set up alerts for disk failures (Zabbix, Grafana, Prometheus)
└── Log & review archive activity (auditd, logrotate, shell scripts)
↓✅ GOAT STATUS: DATA ARCHIVING COMPLETE & AUTOMATED! 🎯
-
-
@ 0c65eba8:4a08ef9a
2025-05-25 09:24:08Why This Matters and Why You Must Rise
Before we get to the hard truth, you need to see what’s at stake: being a husband, a good husband, is one of the most powerful and rewarding roles a man can earn. A well-chosen wife who loves, trusts, and follows your lead brings daily peace, sexual loyalty, emotional steadiness, and generational purpose. She raises your children with respect, protects your name with dignity, and makes your home a fortress of peace, joy and legacy.
But that kind of marriage isn’t given. It’s not random. It must be cultivated. Every couple has the potential to build it, but most don’t know how. Some are emotionally or mentally blocked, and a rare few are so self-destructive or disordered that they don’t want peace at all. If you commit to growth, you avoid becoming that third group. Your habits, discipline, leadership, clarity, and standards will determine the kind of women you attract, and the kind you choose.
Now, the hard truth: most men today are not mature enough to lead a family. Not because of fate, but because they have not been forged into full adulthood. Our culture has abandoned the process of training boys into husbands and fathers. We are surrounded by “males”, men who are adult aged but lacking in masculine maturity. You want to be forged into the kind of man capable of bearing the responsibilities that make marriage work, and make life worth living.
You’ve probably been told one of three lies. First, that you should just be yourself and wait for the right woman to magically appear. Second, that it’s hopeless, that modern women are broken and you’ll never succeed. Third, that the only way to win is to become a manipulator or a predator. All three are lies. And all three will ruin you.
Marriage is an institution that rests on male responsibility. Now is not the time to indulge in unrestrained feelings. This is the time to think logically, act decisively, and get your foundations right. The emotions will come, joy, love, pride, but only after the structure is sound. This audit isn’t romantic. It’s not poetic. It’s not meant to flatter you. It’s meant to demand excellence.
Because the stakes are civilization.
For most of human history, men weren’t asked to find themselves, they were trained, tested, and proven by their clan. Their worth wasn’t debated, it was demonstrated in actions. Marriage wasn’t a reward; it was an assignment earned by utility, discipline, and loyalty. Today, you must choose to forge yourself or be disqualified by default.
This document is hard. That’s intentional. If it offends you, that’s a sign you need it. It is your blueprint, not your affirmation. Read it like your life depends on it, because it does. Your future wife depends on it. Your children depend on it. Your legacy does too.
Every man is born male. Few become men. Fewer still become husbands. If you are to lead, protect, and provide, this is your starting line.
Natural Law Audit and Prescriptive Protocol for Male Readiness for Marriage-Intentional Courtship
Meta-Readiness Considerations
I. Vision of Legacy and Life Direction
A man cannot lead a family without first knowing where he is going. Before evaluating readiness for courtship, you must clarify your vision. What kind of life are you building? What do you want your marriage, children, household, and legacy to look like in five, ten, twenty years? This is not optional. A man without vision drifts, and drifting men destroy women and children.
Ask: Do you want a traditional household? Homeschooling? A career-driven wife or a homemaker? City life or rural homesteading? What is your stance on faith, education, conflict, discipline, and family governance? If you do not define these things in advance, you will be disqualified by women who have.
Your first step is to write it down. This vision is aspirational, it doesn’t need to be perfect, and it will evolve over time. But it must exist to anchor your habits, guide your structure, and align your strategic direction. Without it, you will have no consistent way to measure whether your decisions are moving you toward or away from your goals. Most importantly, this vision will help you evaluate whether a particular woman will support or undermine that trajectory. Put it into a concrete, measurable format. If it is not written, it is not real.
II. Male Hierarchy and Accountability Integration
Men are made in conflict, tested by other men, and refined in a hierarchy. If you do not belong to a tribe of strong men who correct, challenge, and demand your best, you are already failing. Self-improvement in isolation is a delusion. No man rises without pressure.
You need brothers, mentors, uncles, tradesmen, or elders, men who will hold you accountable to your standards, correct your pride, and force you to grow. Whether in a martial arts gym, a church men’s group, a builder’s crew, or a military brotherhood, you must place yourself under male scrutiny. That is where respect is forged.
If you are alone, this is your mission: find a circle or build one. Without this, you will drift, decay, or submit to weaker men’s values.
I. PHYSICAL HEALTH AND APPEARANCE
Functional Purpose: Your body is your first signal, your first point of communication. It tells the world whether you are disciplined, dangerous, and reliable, or soft, passive, and avoidant. Strength, grooming, posture, and composure signal not vanity, but command. A man who cannot govern his flesh will not be trusted to govern anything else.
Operational Criteria:
-
Body Composition: Visible musculature, BMI 18.5–24.9.
-
Posture: Upright, shoulders back, slow and intentional gait.
-
Grooming: Clean, orderly hair, skin, nails, facial hair.
-
Eye Contact: Calm, unwavering, non-threatening.
Disqualifiers:
- Obesity, sloppiness, foul odor, nervous ticks, posture collapse, dressing like a child.
Remediation Steps:
-
Lift weights 3–5x/week.
-
Establish daily grooming habits.
-
Practice mirror walk, facial relaxation, and neutral posture.
-
Buy and wear tailored, timeless outfits like suits or smart-casual attire, chosen for the setting, with high-quality fabrics and subtle styles to convey confidence and earn respect.
Rationale:
Your physical presentation is your first form of leadership. It signals self-respect, readiness, and capacity to protect and provide. Women and other men alike assess you visually before you speak. Neglect in this area marks you as unserious. Strength invites trust.
II. PSYCHOLOGICAL AND EMOTIONAL STABILITY
Functional Purpose: Your mood must not lead you. True emotional maturity means your emotions do not control you, but it does not mean you are numb or unavailable. You must be able to feel deeply, express emotion appropriately, and demonstrate openness to connection. Emotional repression is not strength; it is often a sign of fear. Women bond with men who are strong and warm, who are not ruled by emotion, but are not strangers to it either. Emotional regulation, agency, and stoic self-control are prerequisites for the burden of leadership. Women and children depend on consistency. If you break under pressure, they suffer.
Operational Criteria:
-
Plans and acts for the long-term.
-
Resolves conflict with clarity.
-
Absence of rage, sulking, or passive aggression.
-
Maintains emotionally intimate, trusting relationships with at least one or more close friends or family members.
Disqualifiers:
- Addictions, trauma reenactment, erratic emotional swings (crashing out).
Remediation Steps:
-
Daily journaling + therapy/coaching if unresolved wounds exist.
-
Breathwork, cold exposure, hardship-seeking routines.
-
Audit social circle for drama dependency.
-
Identify self-sabotaging emotional patterns, e.g., withdrawing from intimacy, ending friendships that grow too close, or mistaking openness for weakness, and interrupt them with intentional response strategies.
Rationale:
A man who cannot regulate his emotions becomes a source of instability rather than leadership. Emotional maturity is not the absence of feeling, but the control of it. It makes you trustworthy in crisis, durable in conflict, and clear in vision.
III. ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY AND PROVISIONING CAPACITY
Functional Purpose: You are not entitled to love without means. Provisioning is a male responsibility. If you cannot provide, you are not a suitor, you are a dependent. This has always been the ancient challenge of young men, how to grow into a provider before they are chosen. At 18, most men will fail this test, not because they are doomed, but because they are just beginning. Your job is to mature into the man who passes it.
Operational Criteria:
-
Income: 1.3x local median female income minimum.
-
Budgeting: Monthly audit of all spending.
-
Savings/Insurance: 6+ months living expenses.
Disqualifiers:
- Irregular employment, credit card debt, no savings plan.
Remediation Steps:
-
Obtain or increase income-producing skills.
-
Build an emergency fund over 90 days.
-
Eliminate high-interest debt.
-
Join or form a male career network or professional brotherhood where members support and promote one another’s advancement, most trades and professions have them, and they multiply your rate of progress.
Rationale: Provisioning is the single clearest historical threshold of male maturity. A man who cannot sustain a household cannot form one. Women are instinctively attuned to this. Stability signals trustworthiness. Without it, love decays under the weight of unmet needs.
IV. LEADERSHIP, DECISION-MAKING, AND MORAL AUTHORITY
Functional Purpose: You are not equal in responsibility, you are higher. This means you carry the weight of consequence. She must feel safer with you in charge. Your leadership must be principled, not domineering.
Operational Criteria:
-
Makes and owns decisions in all aspects of life.
-
Asserts and maintains healthy boundaries.
-
Arbitrates disputes without escalation.
-
Knows how to say "no" to others including women.
Disqualifiers:
- People pleasing under pressure, indecisiveness, abdication of duty.
Remediation Steps:
-
Practice “decision drills” daily.
-
Create weekly leadership practice (mentoring, facilitating).
-
Study natural hierarchy and enforcement principles.
Rationale: Leadership is not a “style”, it is a skill set. A man who cannot make decisions cannot command trust. Marriage is a high-stakes enterprise, and indecision breeds confusion and conflict. Clarity is love and care. Direction is protection.
V. SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COURTSHIP COMPETENCE
Functional Purpose: You must lead. In courtship, that means planning, initiating, and maintaining your frame. Women test men for stability, assertiveness, and charisma. If you fail to calibrate, you fail to court.
Operational Criteria:
-
Initiates interactions and follows through.
-
Demonstrates empathetic intuition by interpreting emotional tone and needs through observation, body language, tone, patterns, rather than repeatedly asking "are you okay?"; this shows leadership, sensitivity, and awareness without neediness.
-
Leads with clarity about relationship direction; a woman should never have to ask where she stands or where the relationship is going, his intent should be visible in word and action.
-
Calibrates tone, timing, and intent.
-
Leads logistics without seeking approval.
Disqualifiers:
- Creeping, over-sharing, chasing, excessive self-disclosure.
Remediation Steps:
-
Social reps 3x/week with feedback: initiate conversations with strangers or acquaintances in real-world settings to practice confident, calibrated interaction. Use feedback from trusted peers or self-review to refine tone, timing, and engagement style.
-
Practice escalation and withdrawal cycles in a calibrated, non-manipulative way: offer warmth and connection, then step back slightly to test reciprocity—not to punish or confuse, but to observe sincerity and emotional maturity. This is about leadership, not control.
-
Study polarity dynamics and frame control.
Rationale:
Social calibration is not optional. Women are constantly reading your tone, timing, and presence. If you cannot initiate, maintain, and lead relational dynamics with competence, you will lose respect and attraction, even if your other credentials are in place.
VI. RISK DISCIPLINE AND REPUTATION MANAGEMENT
Functional Purpose: Your record is your resume. Reputation is slow-built and quickly lost. No woman with future orientation will follow a man whose past screams instability.
Operational Criteria:
-
Clean digital, legal, and financial history.
-
No active liabilities: drugs, debts, demons, or interfering exes.
Disqualifiers:
- Public drama, digital recklessness, chaos in your orbit.
Remediation Steps:
-
90-day discipline detox (no substance, no vice).
-
Drop unstable, low value people from your orbit. Block them out.
-
Clean online presence: don’t delete your social media, just remove the parts you wouldn’t want your grandmother, your future wife, or your children to see.
-
Seek testimony from high-integrity peers.
Rationale: Your reputation precedes you. Women will not tell you when they've disqualified you, they will simply disappear. A man who cannot manage his habits or his history is seen as unstable. Stability earns trust. Reputation is leverage. One of the best ways to earn such a reputation is to volunteer with a respected organization. That could be your church, a local charity, or a civic or political group. It gives you a structure where you’re immediately adding value, integrated into a hierarchy, and being seen over time, a strategic investment in your public character and future social capital.
VII. ATTITUDE, WORLDVIEW, AND LONG-TERM STRATEGY
Functional Purpose: A man’s compass must point beyond his own gratification. Your worldview must align with duty, honor, and legacy. Hedonism, blackpilled cynicism, and false egalitarianism destroy your mission.
Operational Criteria:
-
Sees family as duty, as a sacred honor, and as legacy-building project for his future.
-
Orients decisions to long-term outcomes.
-
Lives by principle, not trend.
Disqualifiers:
- Victimhood, escapism, prideful detachment.
Remediation Steps:
-
Write a 5-year legacy map.
-
Study Natural Law, masculine ethics, family economics.
-
Form alliances with principled men.
-
Audit your social media presence: are your posts expressions of agency, ownership, and action, or are they dominated by complaints, victimhood, or bitterness? This includes your reaction to this document.
Rationale: A man’s worldview is his compass. Without purpose beyond pleasure, he is easily swayed, easily trapped, and easily forgotten. Women do not trust men who float. They trust men who build, and who stay building. Are you responding with responsibility and a will to grow, or with defensiveness, sarcasm, or resentment? Your instinctive reaction reveals which trajectory you're on: the heroic or the defeated.
VIII. Courtship Entry and Partner Evaluation Protocol
Functional Purpose: Courtship is not casual. It is pre-contractual. A man must approach it with the same precision, discipline, and foresight he would apply to any high-stakes investment. A woman is not an accessory, she is a multiplier or destroyer of your legacy. Therefore, a man must evaluate with clarity, not lust; with long-term reciprocity in mind, not momentary gratification. She will vet you, so you must vet her.
Operational Guidelines:
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Precondition: Do not enter courtship unless your provisioning, leadership, and vision are demonstrably in place.
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Intentional Initiation: State your interest clearly. Do not flirt without purpose.
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Staged Testing: Observe her behavior in different settings (stress, boredom, family, social).
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Track Record Review: Know her history, relationship, sexual, emotional, legal. People do not change patterns without great effort or external force.
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Frame Integrity: Maintain leadership, emotional control, and escalation pacing.
Disqualifiers in Women:
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History of promiscuity, masculine affect, open contempt for male authority, or unstable social bonds.
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Signs of status-seeking over loyalty.
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Defensiveness against vetting, resistance to transparency is a red flag.
Remediation Steps for Men:
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Create a written checklist of values, standards, and red flags.
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Practice controlled emotional investment: do not fall in love before facts.
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Involve elder men or mentors in evaluating serious candidates.
Rationale: Your family is your most important project. Do not let your hormones sabotage your legacy. The discipline you apply here will determine the quality of your life 10, 20, even 40 years from now. Vet her like your children depend on it, because they will.
Common Objections and Necessary Corrections
“Women should accept me as I am.” That is not how selection works. You are not a product of sentiment, you are a man under judgment. And you will be judged. If you won’t improve, you are asking a woman to accept less so you can offer less. That’s not love, it’s laziness.
“This is outdated or too harsh.” Reality is not dated. The consequences of fatherlessness, broken homes, and unled women are timeless. What’s harsh is a man failing his family because he thought modernity made him exempt from responsibility.
“I know men who got married without doing all this.” Yes. And many of them are divorced, disrespected, or miserable. The bar is low. You are here to rise above it. The goal is not to ‘get married’, it is to build a durable, high-trust household.
“Women today are the real problem.” That may be partly true. But you are the variable you control. Let weak men complain. Strong men adapt, improve, and filter. If you are not rising above the noise, you are being drowned by it.
“This feels autistic or robotic.” It’s supposed to be procedural. That’s what makes it reliable. Emotion has its place, in protection, in passion, in pride, but your vetting process must be strategic. That’s not autism, it’s wisdom.
“Good men don’t need to judge women like this.” Wrong. Good men judge quietly but thoroughly. They know that marrying wrong will cost them their peace, their children, their mission. Judgment is not cruelty, it’s care.
“I don’t want to put in this much work.” Then don’t. But understand, you have chosen disqualification. The work is the entry fee. Excellence is rare for a reason. You are either one of the few who rise or one of the many who wish.
“Women today just aren’t worth marrying.” Not the women you can currently attract. If you’re only meeting low-quality women, you’re probably at their level. If you want to meet better women, you must become a better man.
“As long as the marriage laws are the way they are, it’s not worth it.” Marriage laws only come into play if you fail and get divorced. This process exists to help you avoid divorce. Stay out of court by vetting properly and building wisely.
“Tell me exactly what men get out of marriage in 2025.” Peace. Legacy. Daily affection. Loyalty. Children. A fortified home. Someone to multiply your effort and love. It’s what strong men throughout history have always wanted, and built.
“There aren’t enough good women left.” There are nearly equal numbers of men and women who qualify. It only feels unbalanced when you're not in the right networks or vetting properly. The solution isn’t despair, it’s improvement.
“50% of men will never be attractive to women.” Only if they stay in the bottom 50%. Normally men cycle in and out of the bottom 50%. That has always been true. The solution isn’t resignation, it’s advancement. Do the work in this audit, and you’ll be in the top 25%. Men who say this as an excuse are signaling their own stagnation. Focus on becoming the best version of yourself, not complaining.
Final Word: You’ve Got Work to Do
If you’ve read this far, you’ve already demonstrated what most men won’t: attention, endurance, and a willingness to face the truth. That alone separates you from the crowd.
If this document exposed your failures, good. That means you’re not too far gone. That means you still have a shot. It means you can recognize where to improve.
You don’t get a wife. You earn the trust to lead one. You don’t deserve a good woman, you build the capacity to attract and retain one.
Read this again. Make a plan. Audit weekly. Ask older and more successful men for correction. Get uncomfortable and get to work.
The future doesn’t need more weak men. It needs you at your best, mature, restored, resolute, and ready.
You’re not just choosing a woman. You’re choosing to become the man who will lead a household.
Make yourself a man who cannot be overlooked.
Your future begins now.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 20:47:39This event has been deleted; your client is ignoring the delete request.
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@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9
2025-03-07 00:26:37There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.
Small Wins
Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.
Ego is Volatile
Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.
Simplicity
There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.
The Big Picture
Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡
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@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2
2025-05-24 20:17:45Ich liebe Pareto. Für das was es ist, viel mehr aber für das was es derzeit wird - der Marktplatz der Ideen. Er entsteht durch gemeinsames Engagement von Entwicklern, Autoren und aktiven Lesern. Es ist ein lebendiges Medium, das jeden Tag wächst, quantitativ wie qualitativ, durch offene Interaktion, was es in dieser Form einzigartig macht.\ \ Mein Text ist inspiriert durch den Artikel von Alexa Rodrian vom 22. Mai über den Auftritt von Wolf Biermann bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises. Alexa ist keine Publizistin, genau wie zahlreiche unserer Autoren, aber sie hat einen bemerkenswerten Beitrag verfasst. Ich habe ihn spontan geliked, kommentiert und mit einer Spende honoriert. In den vergangenen Tagen habe ich viel darüber reflektiert, und Pareto ermöglicht es mir, und jedem anderen, diese Überlegungen zur “Causa Biermann” hier darzulegen.
MSN kommentierte die anstößige Rede wie folgt: mit einem verfälschten Golda-Meir-Zitat lenkte Biermann das Thema auf das Sterben in Gaza, für das er die Palästinenser selbst verantwortlich machte. „Dass ihr unsere Söhne ermordet habt, werden wir Euch eines Tages verzeihen“, habe Meir zu den Palästinensern gesagt, „aber wir werden euch niemals verzeihen können, dass ihr unsere Söhne gezwungen habt, selber Mörder zu werden.“ Alexa Rodrian, in einer Mischung aus Enttäuschung und Empörung, eröffnete ihren Artikel wie folgt:
„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt. Die fremde Hand ist bei Biermann eher unwahrscheinlich, denn sein Hang zu Provokationen und Verletzungen haben Tradition, man erinnere sich an den legendären Auftritt bei einer Feierstunde im Bundestag 2014 in der er die Mitglieder der Linksfraktion als “elenden Rest“ und ”Drachenbrut” bezeichnete. Oder seine Beschimpfungen der (ostdeutschen) Wähler von AfD und BSW im August 2024 in einem Zeit-Interview: „Die, die zu feige waren in der Diktatur, rebellieren jetzt ohne Risiko gegen die Demokratie. Den Bequemlichkeiten der Diktatur jammern sie nach, und die Mühen der Demokratie sind ihnen fremd.“
Im Februar 2025 wurde Wolf Biermann für sein Lebenswerk mit einem Musikpreis der GEMA ausgezeichnet. Was aber ist sein Lebenswerk, sein mutiges Engagement in der Opposition der DDR bis 1976 oder seine verfehlten Rüpeleien in der Gegenwart? Ein solcher Preis ist fragwürdig, denn kein Lebenswerk ist konsistent, und die Bewertung abhängig von subjektiven Maßstäben. Meist wählen wir unsere Idole nach unseren Idealen, aber die können sich verändern, ebenso wie das Idol. Beethoven widmete seine 3. Sinfonie (Eroica) Napoleon, zog die Widmung aber zurück als dieser sich 1804 zum Kaiser krönen ließ. “Ist der auch nichts anderes, wie ein gewöhnlicher Mensch?” soll er wütend ausgerufen haben. Richtig! Was hatte Beethoven erwartet, einen Gott? “Hosianna” und “kreuzigt ihn” sind Affekte die durch unsere Projektionen verursacht und den Realitäten nie gerecht werden.
Den Preis für sein Lebenswerk kann Wolf Biermann behalten. Er hat Millionen von Menschen in der DDR Mut gemacht. Er hat zahlreiche großartige Gedichte und Lieder verfasst, das behalte ich gerne in Erinnerung. Nun hat er sich selbst vom Sockel gestürzt und durch seinen Empathiemangel das Image beschädigt. Das hätte er vermeiden können, wenn er sich an die Worte seines Lehrmeisters Brecht erinnert hätte.
...\ Dabei wissen wir doch:\ Auch der Hass gegen die Niedrigkeit\ verzerrt die Züge.\ Auch der Zorn über das Unrecht\ Macht die Stimme heiser. Ach, wir\ Die wir den Boden bereiten wollten für die Freundlichkeit\ Konnten selber nicht freundlich sein.\ ...
Er hätte auch von der Medizin nehmen können, die er selbst für andere entwickelt hat \ (1966 für seinen Freund Peter Huchel).
…\ Du, laß dich nicht verhärten\ in dieser harten Zeit.\ Die allzu hart sind, brechen,\ die allzu spitz sind, stechen\ und brechen ab sogleich.\ …
PS: Fortsetzung folgt in der Reihe \ “Was wir von großen Persönlichkeiten lernen können, wenn wir ihnen zuhören würden."
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@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-03-07 00:01:02[npub16d8gxt2z4k9e8sdpc0yyqzf5gp0np09ls4lnn630qzxzvwpl0rgq5h4rzv]
Helical Visualization of Time's Passage in Orbital Motion and Celestial Mechanics
Exploring the dynamics of our Solar System through helical visualization opens new possibilities for understanding time, orbital motion, and planetary trajectories. By visualizing time as a continuous helical path, we gain insights into the cyclical and evolving nature of celestial mechanics, where each planet's orbit interacts with others in both predictable and dynamic patterns.
1. Helical Visualization of Time’s Passage
- Time as a Continuous Helix: Instead of viewing planetary orbits as fixed ellipses, this model represents the passage of time as a helical curve, linking each orbital cycle to the next. This visualization allows for a deeper understanding of the long-term movement of celestial bodies.
- Progression of Orbital Events: As planets follow their helical paths, we can track the passage of time from multiple perspectives, observing how their positions and velocities evolve in relation to one another. The helical model offers an elegant representation of periodic cycles that emphasizes the interconnectedness of cosmic events.
- Temporal Interactions: In this model, events like eclipses, conjunctions, and retrogrades become visualized as intersecting points on the helical path, emphasizing their importance in the grand tapestry of the Solar System's motion.
2. Orbital Motion and Celestial Mechanics
- Interplanetary Influences: The interactions between planetary bodies are inherently governed by gravitational forces, which create orbital motions that are often predictable yet influenced by external factors like planetary alignments and the gravitational pull of distant stars.
- Orbital Resonance and Tidal Forces: The gravitational interactions between planets, moons, and even asteroids can result in phenomena like orbital resonance. These interactions can be visualized in a helical model, showing how bodies can affect each other's orbits over time, much like the push and pull of a dance.
- The Dance of the Planets: Each planet’s orbit is not only a path through space but a part of a cosmic ballet, where their gravitational interactions affect one another's orbits. The helical model of motion helps us visualize how these interactions evolve over millions of years, helping to predict future trajectories.
3. Planetary Orbits and the Structure of the Solar System
- Elliptical and Spiral Patterns: While many planetary orbits are elliptical, the helical model introduces a dynamic spiral element to represent the combined motion of planets both around the Sun and through space. As the planets move, their orbits could resemble intricate spirals that reflect the cumulative effect of their motion through time.
- Resonance and Stability: Certain orbits may stabilize or shift over long periods due to gravitational interactions between planets. This helical view provides a tool for observing how minor orbital shifts can amplify over time, affecting not only the planets but the overall structure of the Solar System.
- Nonlinear Progression: Planets do not follow predictable paths in a simple two-dimensional plane. Instead, their orbits are affected by multiple forces, including interactions with other celestial bodies, making the helical model an ideal tool for visualizing the complexity and evolving nature of these planetary orbits.
4. Space Visualization and the Expanding Universe
- Moving Beyond the Solar System: The helical model of time and orbital motion does not end with our Solar System. As we visualize the movement of our Solar System within the broader context of the Milky Way, we begin to understand how our own galaxy's orbit affects our local motion through the universe.
- Helical Paths in Cosmic Space: This visualization method allows us to consider the Solar System’s motion as part of a larger, spiraling pattern that reaches across the galaxy, suggesting that our journey through space follows an intricate, three-dimensional helical path.
Connections (Links to Other Notes)
- The Mathematical Foundations of Orbital Mechanics
- Time as a Dimension in Celestial Navigation
- Gravitational Forces and Orbital Stability
Tags
SolarSystem #HelicalMotion #TimeVisualization #OrbitalMechanics #CelestialBodies #PlanetaryOrbits #SpaceExploration
Donations via
- ZeroSumFreeParity@primal.net
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@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5
2025-05-24 20:06:04In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.
The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.
These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.
In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.
He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.
“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”
To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.
And he was right. Literally.
By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.
But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.
His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.
With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.
But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.
He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.
In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.
And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-25 09:21:05Nullam auctor pretium sem pulvinar pulvinar\ Donec fermentum iaculis sem id aliquet
Integer vitae tempor justo, ac fermentum purus
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 20:36:35Suspendisse quis rutrum nisi Integer nec augue quis ex euismod blandit ut ac mi
Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris
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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17
2025-05-24 19:16:17Descrição da empresa
Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.
A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.
Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.
Vendendo soluções para os clientes
"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”
Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.
Visão geral da empresa
A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.
Mercado que atua
O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.
A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.
Mercado
Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!
As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.
Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:
Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.
Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.
Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.
Materia sobre carros eletricos
Oportunidades que o ativo traz
Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:
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Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais
Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.
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Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)
Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.
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Motores Comerciais e Appliance
O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.
Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.
Riscos
Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:
- Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
- Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
- Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.
Catalisadores
Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:
- Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
- Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
- As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.
Faq
Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?
13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.
WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?
Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.
O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?
A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.
Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?
A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.
Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?
O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.
Bio
Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!
Disclaimer
Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!
Referencia
https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1
https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/
https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/
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@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-03-06 21:57:23https://pub-53ed77d5544b46628691823c1795f2c7.r2.dev/Reticulum-Unstoppable-Network-Compressed.mp4
[npub16d8gxt2z4k9e8sdpc0yyqzf5gp0np09ls4lnn630qzxzvwpl0rgq5h4rzv]
What is Reticulum?
Reticulum is a cryptographic networking stack designed for resilient, decentralized, and censorship-resistant communication. Unlike the traditional internet, Reticulum enables fully independent digital communications over various physical mediums, such as radio, LoRa, serial links, and even TCP/IP.
The key advantages of Reticulum include:
- Decentralization – No reliance on centralized infrastructure.
- Encryption & Privacy – End-to-end encryption built-in.
- Resilience – Operates over unreliable and low-bandwidth links.
- Interoperability – Works over WiFi, LoRa, Bluetooth, and more.
- Ease of Use – Can run on minimal hardware, including Raspberry Pi and embedded devices.Reticulum is ideal for off-grid, censorship-resistant communications, emergency preparedness, and secure messaging.
1. Getting Started with Reticulum
To quickly get started with Reticulum, follow the official guide:
Reticulum: Getting Started FastStep 1: Install Reticulum
On Linux (Debian/Ubuntu-based systems)
sh sudo apt update && sudo apt upgrade -y sudo apt install -y python3-pip pip3 install rns
On Raspberry Pi or ARM-based Systems
sh pip3 install rns
On Windows
Using Windows Subsystem for Linux (WSL) or Python:
sh pip install rns
On macOS
sh pip3 install rns
2. Configuring Reticulum
Once installed, Reticulum needs a configuration file. The default location is:
sh ~/.config/reticulum/config.toml
To generate the default configuration:
sh rnsd
This creates a configuration file with default settings.
3. Using Reticulum
Starting the Reticulum Daemon
To run the Reticulum daemon (
rnsd
), use:
sh rnsd
This starts the network stack, allowing applications to communicate over Reticulum.Testing Your Reticulum Node
Run the diagnostic tool to ensure your node is functioning:
sh rnstatus
This shows the status of all connected interfaces and peers.
4. Adding Interfaces
LoRa Interface (for Off-Grid Communications)
Reticulum supports long-range LoRa radios like the RAK Wireless and Meshtastic devices. To add a LoRa interface, edit
config.toml
and add:
toml [[interfaces]] type = "LoRa" name = "My_LoRa_Interface" frequency = 868.0 bandwidth = 125 spreading_factor = 9
Restart Reticulum to apply the changes.Serial (For Direct Device-to-Device Links)
For communication over serial links (e.g., between two Raspberry Pis):
toml [[interfaces]] type = "Serial" port = "/dev/ttyUSB0" baudrate = 115200
TCP/IP (For Internet-Based Nodes)
If you want to bridge your Reticulum node over an existing IP network:
toml [[interfaces]] type = "TCP" listen = true bind = "0.0.0.0" port = 4242
5. Applications Using Reticulum
LXMF (LoRa Mesh Messaging Framework)
LXMF is a delay-tolerant, fully decentralized messaging system that operates over Reticulum. It allows encrypted, store-and-forward messaging without requiring an always-online server.
To install:
sh pip3 install lxmf
To start the LXMF node:
sh lxmfd
Nomad Network (Decentralized Chat & File Sharing)
Nomad is a Reticulum-based chat and file-sharing platform, ideal for off-grid communication.
To install:
sh pip3 install nomad-network
To run:
sh nomad
Mesh Networking with Meshtastic & Reticulum
Reticulum can work alongside Meshtastic for true decentralized long-range communication.
To set up a Meshtastic bridge:
toml [[interfaces]] type = "LoRa" port = "/dev/ttyUSB0" baudrate = 115200
6. Security & Privacy Features
- Automatic End-to-End Encryption – Every message is encrypted by default.
- No Centralized Logging – Communication leaves no metadata traces.
- Self-Healing Routing – Designed to work in unstable or hostile environments.
7. Practical Use Cases
- Off-Grid Communication – Works in remote areas without cellular service.
- Censorship Resistance – Cannot be blocked by ISPs or governments.
- Emergency Networks – Enables resilient communication during disasters.
- Private P2P Networks – Create a secure, encrypted communication layer.
8. Further Exploration & Documentation
- Reticulum Official Manual: https://markqvist.github.io/Reticulum/manual/
- Reticulum GitHub Repository: https://github.com/markqvist/Reticulum
- Nomad Network: https://github.com/markqvist/NomadNet
- Meshtastic + Reticulum: https://meshtastic.org
Connections (Links to Other Notes)
- Mesh Networking for Decentralized Communication
- LoRa and Off-Grid Bitcoin Transactions
- Censorship-Resistant Communication Using Nostr & Reticulum
Tags
Reticulum #DecentralizedComms #MeshNetworking #CensorshipResistance #LoRa
Donations via
- Bitcoin Lightning: lightninglayerhash@getalby.com
-
@ 2f29aa33:38ac6f13
2025-05-17 12:59:01The Myth and the Magic
Picture this: a group of investors, huddled around a glowing computer screen, nervously watching Bitcoin’s price. Suddenly, someone produces a stick-no ordinary stick, but a magical one. With a mischievous grin, they poke the Bitcoin. The price leaps upward. Cheers erupt. The legend of the Bitcoin stick is born.
But why does poking Bitcoin with a stick make the price go up? Why does it only work for a lucky few? And what does the data say about this mysterious phenomenon? Let’s dig in, laugh a little, and maybe learn the secret to market-moving magic.
The Statistical Side of Stick-Poking
Bitcoin’s Price: The Wild Ride
Bitcoin’s price is famous for its unpredictability. In the past year, it’s soared, dipped, and soared again, sometimes gaining more than 50% in just a few months. On a good day, billions of dollars flow through Bitcoin trades, and the price can jump thousands in a matter of hours. Clearly, something is making this happen-and it’s not just spreadsheets and financial news.
What Actually Moves the Price?
-
Scarcity: Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. When more people want in, the price jumps.
-
Big News: Announcements, rumors, and meme-worthy moments can send the price flying.
-
FOMO: When people see Bitcoin rising, they rush to buy, pushing it even higher.
-
Liquidations: When traders betting against Bitcoin get squeezed, it triggers a chain reaction of buying.
But let’s be honest: none of this is as fun as poking Bitcoin with a stick.
The Magical Stick: Not Your Average Twig
Why Not Every Stick Works
You can’t just grab any old branch and expect Bitcoin to dance. The magical stick is a rare artifact, forged in the fires of internet memes and blessed by the spirit of Satoshi. Only a chosen few possess it-and when they poke, the market listens.
Signs You Have the Magical Stick
-
When you poke, Bitcoin’s price immediately jumps a few percent.
-
Your stick glows with meme energy and possibly sparkles with digital dust.
-
You have a knack for timing your poke right after a big event, like a halving or a celebrity tweet.
-
Your stick is rumored to have been whittled from the original blockchain itself.
Why Most Sticks Fail
-
No Meme Power: If your stick isn’t funny, Bitcoin ignores you.
-
Bad Timing: Poking during a bear market just annoys the blockchain.
-
Not Enough Hype: If the bitcoin community isn’t watching, your poke is just a poke.
-
Lack of Magic: Some sticks are just sticks. Sad, but true.
The Data: When the Stick Strikes
Let’s look at some numbers:
-
In the last month, Bitcoin’s price jumped over 20% right after a flurry of memes and stick-poking jokes.
-
Over the past year, every major price surge was accompanied by a wave of internet hype, stick memes, or wild speculation.
-
In the past five years, Bitcoin’s biggest leaps always seemed to follow some kind of magical event-whether a halving, a viral tweet, or a mysterious poke.
Coincidence? Maybe. But the pattern is clear: the stick works-at least when it’s magical.
The Role of Memes, Magic, and Mayhem
Bitcoin’s price is like a cat: unpredictable, easily startled, and sometimes it just wants to be left alone. But when the right meme pops up, or the right stick pokes at just the right time, the price can leap in ways that defy logic.
The bitcoin community knows this. That’s why, when Bitcoin’s stuck in a rut, you’ll see a flood of stick memes, GIFs, and magical thinking. Sometimes, it actually works.
The Secret’s in the Stick (and the Laughs)
So, does poking Bitcoin with a stick really make the price go up? If your stick is magical-blessed by memes, timed perfectly, and watched by millions-absolutely. The statistics show that hype, humor, and a little bit of luck can move markets as much as any financial report.
Next time you see Bitcoin stalling, don’t just sit there. Grab your stick, channel your inner meme wizard, and give it a poke. Who knows? You might just be the next legend in the world of bitcoin magic.
And if your stick doesn’t work, don’t worry. Sometimes, the real magic is in the laughter along the way.
-aco
@block height: 897,104
-
-
@ 15cf81d4:b328e146
2025-05-24 19:19:46Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
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# Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝
🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:
- Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases
- Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses
- Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets
- Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats
You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.
🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.
🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.
💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.
Our Recovery Services Include: 📈
- Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
- Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
- Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
- Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.
⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect
# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!
Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges
🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.
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-
@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43
2025-05-09 23:10:14I. Historical Foundations of U.S. Monetary Architecture
The early monetary system of the United States was built atop inherited commodity money conventions from Europe’s maritime economies. Silver and gold coins—primarily Spanish pieces of eight, Dutch guilders, and other foreign specie—formed the basis of colonial commerce. These units were already integrated into international trade and piracy networks and functioned with natural compatibility across England, France, Spain, and Denmark. Lacking a centralized mint or formal currency, the U.S. adopted these forms de facto.
As security risks and the practical constraints of physical coinage mounted, banks emerged to warehouse specie and issue redeemable certificates. These certificates evolved into fiduciary media—claims on specie not actually in hand. Banks observed over time that substantial portions of reserves remained unclaimed for years. This enabled fractional reserve banking: issuing more claims than reserves held, so long as redemption demand stayed low. The practice was inherently unstable, prone to panics and bank runs, prompting eventual centralization through the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
Following the Civil War and unstable reinstatements of gold convertibility, the U.S. sought global monetary stability. After World War II, the Bretton Woods system formalized the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. The dollar was nominally backed by gold, but most international dollars were held offshore and recycled into U.S. Treasuries. The Nixon Shock of 1971 eliminated the gold peg, converting the dollar into pure fiat. Yet offshore dollar demand remained, sustained by oil trade mandates and the unique role of Treasuries as global reserve assets.
II. The Structure of Fiduciary Media and Treasury Demand
Under this system, foreign trade surpluses with the U.S. generate excess dollars. These surplus dollars are parked in U.S. Treasuries, thereby recycling trade imbalances into U.S. fiscal liquidity. While technically loans to the U.S. government, these purchases act like interest-only transfers—governments receive yield, and the U.S. receives spendable liquidity without principal repayment due in the short term. Debt is perpetually rolled over, rarely extinguished.
This creates an illusion of global subsidy: U.S. deficits are financed via foreign capital inflows that, in practice, function more like financial tribute systems than conventional debt markets. The underlying asset—U.S. Treasury debt—functions as the base reserve asset of the dollar system, replacing gold in post-Bretton Woods monetary logic.
III. Emergence of Tether and the Parastatal Dollar
Tether (USDT), as a private issuer of dollar-denominated tokens, mimics key central bank behaviors while operating outside the regulatory perimeter. It mints tokens allegedly backed 1:1 by U.S. dollars or dollar-denominated securities (mostly Treasuries). These tokens circulate globally, often in jurisdictions with limited banking access, and increasingly serve as synthetic dollar substitutes.
If USDT gains dominance as the preferred medium of exchange—due to technological advantages, speed, programmability, or access—it displaces Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) not through devaluation, but through functional obsolescence. Gresham’s Law inverts: good money (more liquid, programmable, globally transferable USDT) displaces bad (FRNs) even if both maintain a nominal 1:1 parity.
Over time, this preference translates to a systemic demand shift. Actors increasingly use Tether instead of FRNs, especially in global commerce, digital marketplaces, or decentralized finance. Tether tokens effectively become shadow base money.
IV. Interaction with Commercial Banking and Redemption Mechanics
Under traditional fractional reserve systems, commercial banks issue loans denominated in U.S. dollars, expanding the money supply. When borrowers repay loans, this destroys the created dollars and contracts monetary elasticity. If borrowers repay in USDT instead of FRNs:
- Banks receive a non-Fed liability (USDT).
- USDT is not recognized as reserve-eligible within the Federal Reserve System.
- Banks must either redeem USDT for FRNs, or demand par-value conversion from Tether to settle reserve requirements and balance their books.
This places redemption pressure on Tether and threatens its 1:1 peg under stress. If redemption latency, friction, or cost arises, USDT’s equivalence to FRNs is compromised. Conversely, if banks are permitted or compelled to hold USDT as reserve or regulatory capital, Tether becomes a de facto reserve issuer.
In this scenario, banks may begin demanding loans in USDT, mirroring borrower behavior. For this to occur sustainably, banks must secure Tether liquidity. This creates two options: - Purchase USDT from Tether or on the secondary market, collateralized by existing fiat. - Borrow USDT directly from Tether, using bank-issued debt as collateral.
The latter mirrors Federal Reserve discount window operations. Tether becomes a lender of first resort, providing monetary elasticity to the banking system by creating new tokens against promissory assets—exactly how central banks function.
V. Structural Consequences: Parallel Central Banking
If Tether begins lending to commercial banks, issuing tokens backed by bank notes or collateralized debt obligations: - Tether controls the expansion of broad money through credit issuance. - Its balance sheet mimics a central bank, with Treasuries and bank debt as assets and tokens as liabilities. - It intermediates between sovereign debt and global liquidity demand, replacing the Federal Reserve’s open market operations with its own issuance-redemption cycles.
Simultaneously, if Tether purchases U.S. Treasuries with FRNs received through token issuance, it: - Supplies the Treasury with new liquidity (via bond purchases). - Collects yield on government debt. - Issues a parallel form of U.S. dollars that never require redemption—an interest-only loan to the U.S. government from a non-sovereign entity.
In this context, Tether performs monetary functions of both a central bank and a sovereign wealth fund, without political accountability or regulatory transparency.
VI. Endgame: Institutional Inversion and Fed Redundancy
This paradigm represents an institutional inversion:
- The Federal Reserve becomes a legacy issuer.
- Tether becomes the operational base money provider in both retail and interbank contexts.
- Treasuries remain the foundational reserve asset, but access to them is mediated by a private intermediary.
- The dollar persists, but its issuer changes. The State becomes a fiscal agent of a decentralized financial ecosystem, not its monetary sovereign.
Unless the Federal Reserve reasserts control—either by absorbing Tether, outlawing its instruments, or integrating its tokens into the reserve framework—it risks becoming irrelevant in the daily function of money.
Tether, in this configuration, is no longer a derivative of the dollar—it is the dollar, just one level removed from sovereign control. The future of monetary sovereignty under such a regime is post-national and platform-mediated.
-
@ eac63075:b4988b48
2025-03-03 17:18:12Abstract
This paper examines a hypothetical scenario in which the United States, under Trump’s leadership, withdraws from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, thereby enabling a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America. Drawing on classical geopolitical theories—specifically those of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel—the study analyzes how these frameworks can elucidate the evolving power dynamics and territorial ambitions in a reconfigured global order. The discussion highlights Mackinder’s notion of the Eurasian Heartland and its strategic importance, Mahan’s emphasis on maritime power and control of strategic routes, Kjellén’s view of the state as an expanding organism, and Ratzel’s concept of Lebensraum as a justification for territorial expansion. The paper also explores contemporary developments, such as the US–Ukraine economic agreement and Trump’s overt territorial ambitions involving Greenland and Canada, in light of these theories. By juxtaposing traditional geopolitical concepts with current international relations, the study aims to shed light on the potential implications of such shifts for regional stability, global security, and the balance of power, particularly in relation to emerging neocolonial practices in Latin America.
Introduction
In recent years, the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have sparked analyses from different theoretical perspectives. This paper examines recent events – presupposing a scenario in which Donald Trump withdraws the US from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, allowing a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America – in light of classical geopolitical theories. The ideas of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel are used as reference points. The proposal is to impartially evaluate how each theory can elucidate the developments of this hypothetical scenario, relating Russian territorial expansion in Eurasia to the strategic retreat of the US to the Western Hemisphere.
Initially, we will outline Mackinder’s conception of the Heartland (the central Eurasian territory) and the crucial role of Eastern Europe and Ukraine in the quest for global dominance. Next, we will discuss Mahan’s ideas regarding maritime power and the control of strategic routes, considering the impacts on the naval power balance among the US, Russia, and other maritime powers such as the United Kingdom and Japan. Subsequently, we will examine Kjellén’s organic theory of the state, interpreting the Russian expansionist strategy as a reflection of a state organism in search of vital space. In the same vein, Ratzel’s concept of “Lebensraum” will be explored, along with how Russia could justify territorial expansion based on resources and territory. Finally, the paper connects these theories to the current political context, analyzing the direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow (overlooking Ukraine and Europe), the US policy toward authoritarian regimes in Latin America, and the notion of a hemispheric division of power – the “Island of the Americas” under North American hegemony versus an Eurasia dominated by Russia. Lastly, it considers the possibility that such a geopolitical arrangement may foster the strengthening of authoritarian governments globally, rather than containing them, thus altering the paradigms of the liberal world order.
The Heartland of Mackinder: Ukraine, Eurasia, and Global Dominance
Halford J. Mackinder, a British geographer and pioneer of geopolitics, proposed the celebrated Heartland Theory in the early twentieth century. Mackinder divided the world into geostrategic zones and identified the Heartland—the central continental mass of Eurasia—as the “geographical pivot of history” [5]. His most famous maxim encapsulates this vision: “who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; who rules the World Island commands the world” [5]. Eastern Europe and, in particular, the region of present-day Ukraine, play a key role in this formula. This is because, for Mackinder, Eastern Europe functions as a gateway to the Heartland, providing access to resources and a strategic position for the projection of continental power [5].
Applying this theory to our scenario, the conquest of Ukraine and Eastern European countries by Russia would have profound geopolitical implications. From a Mackinderian point of view, such a conquest would enormously strengthen Russia’s position in the Heartland by adding manpower (population) and Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural resources to its power base [5]. In fact, Mackinder argued that controlling the Heartland conferred formidable geostrategic advantages—a vast terrestrial “natural fortress” protected from naval invasions and rich in resources such as wheat, minerals, and fuels [5]. Thus, if Moscow were to incorporate Ukraine (renowned for its fertile soil and grain production, as well as its mineral reserves) and extend its influence over Eastern Europe, Russia would consolidate the Heartland under its direct control. In this context, the absence of the USA (withdrawn from NATO and less engaged in Europe) would remove an important obstacle to Russian predominance in the region.
With central and eastern Eurasia under Russian influence, it would be possible to move toward the realization of the geopolitical nightmare described by Mackinder for Western maritime powers: a hegemonic continental power capable of projecting power to both Europe and Asia. Mackinder himself warned that if a Heartland power gained additional access to an oceanic coastline—in other words, if it combined land power with a significant maritime front—it would constitute a “danger” to global freedom [5]. In the scenario considered, besides advancing into Eastern Europe, Russia would already possess strategic maritime outlets (for example, in the Black Sea, via Crimea, and in the Baltic, via Kaliningrad or the Baltic States if influenced). Thus, the control of Ukraine would reinforce Russia’s position in the Black Sea and facilitate projection into the Eastern Mediterranean, expanding its oceanic front. From a Mackinderian perspective, this could potentially transform Russia into the dominant power of the “World Island” (the combined mass of Europe, Asia, and Africa), thereby unbalancing the global geopolitical order [5].
It is worth noting that, historically, Mackinder’s doctrine influenced containment strategies: both in the interwar period and during the Cold War, efforts were made to prevent a single power from controlling the Heartland and Eastern Europe. NATO, for example, can be seen as an instrument to prevent Soviet/Russian advances in Europe, in line with Mackinder’s imperative to “contain the Heartland.” Thus, if the USA were to abandon that role—by leaving NATO and tacitly accepting the Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia—we would be witnessing an inversion of the principles that have guided Western policy for decades. In short, under Mackinder’s theory, the Russian conquest of Ukraine and beyond would represent the key for Russia to command the Heartland and, potentially, challenge global hegemony, especially in a scenario where the USA self-restricts to the Western Hemisphere.
The Maritime Power of Mahan and the Naval Balance between West and East
While Mackinder emphasized continental land power, Alfred Thayer Mahan, a nineteenth-century American naval strategist, highlighted the crucial role of maritime power in global dominance. In his work The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890), Mahan studied the example of the British Empire and concluded that control of the seas paved the way for British supremacy as a world power [10]. He argued that a strong navy and the control of strategic maritime routes were decisive factors for projecting military, political, and economic power. His doctrine can be summarized in the following points: (1) the United States should aspire to be a world power; (2) control of the seas is necessary to achieve that status; (3) such control is obtained through a powerful fleet of warships [17]. In other words, for Mahan, whoever dominates the maritime routes and possesses naval superiority will be in a position to influence global destinies, ensuring trade, supplies, and the rapid movement of military forces.
In the proposed scenario, in which the USA withdraws militarily from Europe and possibly from the Eurasian stage, Mahan’s ideas raise questions about the distribution of maritime power and its effects. Traditionally, the US Navy operates globally, ensuring freedom of navigation and deterring challenges in major seas (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, etc.). A withdrawal of the USA from NATO could also signal a reduction in its naval presence in the Northeast Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and other areas close to Eurasia. In such a case, who would fill this naval vacuum? Russia, although primarily a land power, has been attempting to modernize its navy and has specific interests—for example, consolidating its dominance in the Black Sea and maintaining a presence in the Mediterranean (with a naval base in Tartus, Syria). The United Kingdom, a historic European maritime power, would remain aligned with the USA but, without American military support in Europe, might potentially be overwhelmed trying to contain an increasingly assertive Russian navy in European waters on its own. Japan, another significant maritime actor allied with the USA, is concerned with the naval balance in the Pacific; without full American engagement, Tokyo might be compelled to expand its own naval power to contain both Russia in the Far East (which maintains a fleet in the Pacific) and, especially, the growing Chinese navy.
According to Mahan’s thinking, strategic maritime routes and choke points (crucial straits and channels) become contested prizes in this power game. With the USA focusing on the Americas, one could imagine Washington reinforcing control over the Panama Canal and Caribbean routes—reviving an “American Gulf” policy in the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. In fact, indications of this orientation emerge in statements attributed to Trump, who once suggested reclaiming direct control over Panama, transforming Canada into a North American state, and even “annexing” Greenland due to its Arctic geopolitical importance [18]. These aspirations reflect a quest to secure advantageous maritime positions near the American continent.
Conversely, in the absence of American presence in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean, Russia would have free rein for regional maritime projection. This could include anything from the unrestricted use of the Black Sea (after dominating Ukraine, thereby ensuring full access to Crimea and Ukrainian ports) to greater influence in the Eastern Mediterranean via Syria and partnerships with countries such as Iran or Egypt. The Baltic Sea would also become an area of expanded Russian interest, pressuring coastal countries and perhaps reducing NATO’s traditional local naval supremacy. However, it is worth noting that even with these regional expansions, Russia lacks a blue-water navy comparable to that of the USA; thus, its initial global maritime impact would be limited without alliances.
An important aspect of Mahan’s theories is that naval power serves as a counterbalance to the land power of the Heartland. Therefore, even if Russia were to dominate the Eurasian continental mass, the continued presence of American naval might on the oceans could prevent complete global domination by Moscow. However, if the USA voluntarily restricts its naval reach to the Americas, it would forgo influencing the power balance in the seas adjacent to Eurasia. Consequently, the balance of maritime power would tend to shift in favor of regional Eurasian actors. The United Kingdom and Japan, traditional allies of the USA, could intensify their naval capabilities to defend regional interests—the United Kingdom safeguarding the North Atlantic and the North Sea, and Japan patrolling the Northwest Pacific—but both would face budgetary and structural limitations in fully compensating for the absence of the American superpower. Consequently, Mahan’s vision suggests that the withdrawal of the USA from the extra-regional scene would weaken the liberal maritime regime, possibly opening space for revisionist powers to contest routes that were previously secured (for example, Russia and China encountering less opposition on the routes of the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific, respectively). In summary, naval hegemony would fragment, and control of strategic seas would become contested, reconfiguring the relative influence of the USA, Russia, and maritime allies such as the United Kingdom and Japan.
Kjellén and the State as a Living Organism: Russian Expansion as an Organic Necessity
Another useful theoretical lens to interpret Russian geopolitical posture is that of Rudolf Kjellén, a Swedish political scientist of the early twentieth century who conceived the State as a living organism. Kjellén, who even coined the term “geopolitics,” was influenced by Friedrich Ratzel’s ideas and by social Darwinism, arguing that States are born, grow, and decline analogously to living beings [13]. In his work Staten som livsform (The State as a Form of Life, 1916), he maintained that States possess an organic dimension in addition to the legal one and that “just as any form of life, States must expand or die” [14]. This expansion would not be motivated merely by aggressive conquest but seen as a necessary growth for the self-preservation of the state organism [14]. In complement, Kjellén echoed Ratzel’s “law of expanding spaces” by asserting that large States expand at the expense of smaller ones, with it being only a matter of time before the great realms fill the available spaces [14]. That is, from the organic perspective, vigorous States tend to incorporate smaller neighboring territories, consolidating territorially much like an organism absorbing nutrients.
Applying this theory to the strategy of contemporary Russia, we can interpret Moscow’s actions—including the invasion of Ukraine and the ambition to restore its sphere of influence in Eurasia—as the expression of an organic drive for expansion. For a strategist influenced by this school, Russia (viewed as a state organism with a long imperial history) needs to expand its territory and influence to ensure its survival and security. The loss of control over spaces that once were part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union (such as Ukraine itself, the Caucasus, or Central Asia) may be perceived by Russian elites as an atrophy of the state organism, rendering it vulnerable. Thus, the reincorporation of these territories—whether directly (annexation) or indirectly (political vassalage)—would equate to restoring lost members or strengthening vital organs of the state body. In fact, official Russian arguments often portray Ukraine as an intrinsic part of “Russian historicity,” denying it a fully separate identity—a narrative that aligns with the idea that Russian expansion in that region is natural and necessary for the Russian State (seen as encompassing also Russian speakers beyond its current borders).
Kjellén would thus provide a theoretical justification for Russian territorial expansion as an organic phenomenon. As a great power, Russia would inevitably seek to expand at the expense of smaller neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States, etc.), as dictated by the tendency of “great spaces to organize” to the detriment of the small [14]. This view can be identified in contemporary Russian doctrines that value spheres of influence and the notion that neighboring countries must gravitate around Moscow in order for the natural order to be maintained. The very idea of “Eurasia” united under Russian leadership (advocated by modern Russian thinkers) echoes this organic conception of vital space and expansion as a sign of the State’s vitality.
However, Kjellén’s theory also warns of the phenomenon of “imperial overstretch,” should a State exceed its internal cohesion limits by expanding excessively [14]. He recognized that extending borders too far could increase friction and vulnerabilities, making it difficult to maintain cohesion—a very large organism may lack functional integration. In the Russian context, this suggests that although expansion is seen as necessary, there are risks if Russia tries to encompass more than it can govern effectively. Conquering Ukraine and subjugating Eastern Europe, for example, could economically and militarily overburden the Russian State, especially if it faced resistance or had to manage hostile populations. However, in the hypothetical scenario we adopt (isolated USA and a weakened Europe), Russia might calculate that the organic benefits of expansion (territory, resources, strategic depth) would outweigh the costs, since external interference would be limited. Thus, through Kjellén’s lens, expansionist Russia behaves as an organism following its instinct for survival and growth, absorbing weaker neighbors; yet such a process is not devoid of challenges, requiring that the “organism Russia” manages to assimilate these new spaces without collapsing under its own weight.
Ratzel and Lebensraum: Resources, Territory, and the Justification for Expansion
Parallel to Kjellén’s organic view, Friedrich Ratzel’s theory offers another conceptual basis for understanding Russian expansion: the concept of Lebensraum (vital space). Ratzel, a German geographer of the late nineteenth century, proposed that the survival and development of a people or nation depended critically on the available physical space and resources. Influenced by Darwinist ideas, he applied the notion of “survival of the fittest” to nations, arguing that human societies need to conquer territory and resources to prosper, and that the stronger and fittest civilizations will naturally prevail over the weaker ones [12]. In 1901, Ratzel coined the term Lebensraum to describe this need for “vital space” as a geographical factor in national power [15].
Subsequently, this idea would be adopted—and extremely distorted—by Nazi ideology to justify Germany’s aggressions in Europe. However, the core of Ratzel’s concept is that territorial expansion is essential for the survival and growth of a State, especially to secure food, raw materials, and space for its population [12].
When examining Russia’s stance under this perspective, we can see several narratives that evoke the logic of Lebensraum. Russia is the largest country in the world by area; however, much of its territory is characterized by adverse climates (tundra, taiga) and is relatively sparsely populated in Siberia. On the other hand, adjacent regions such as Ukraine possess highly arable lands (chernozem—black soil), significant Slavic population density, and additional natural resources (coal in the Donbass, for example). An implicit justification for Russian expansion could be the search for supplementary resources and fertile lands to secure its self-sufficiency and power—exactly as Ratzel described that vigorous nations do. Historical records show that Ratzel emphasized agrarian primacy: he believed that new territories should be colonized by farmers, providing the food base for the nation [12]. Ukraine, historically called the “breadbasket of Europe,” fits perfectly into this vision of conquest for sustenance and agricultural wealth.
Furthermore, Ratzel viewed geography as a determinant of the destiny of nations—peoples adapted to certain habitats seek to expand them if they aspire to grow. In contemporary Russian discourse, there is often mention of the need to ensure security and territorial depth in the face of NATO, or to unite brotherly peoples (Russians and Russian speakers) within a single political space. Such arguments can be read as a modern translation of Lebensraum: the idea that the Russian nation, in order to be secure and flourish, must control a larger space, encompassing buffer zones and critical resources. This Russian “vital space” would naturally include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, given the historical and infrastructural interdependence. Ratzel emphasized that peoples migrated and expanded when their original homeland no longer met their needs or aspirations [12]. Although contemporary Russia does not suffer from demographic pressure (on the contrary, it faces population decline), under the logic of a great power there is indeed a sentiment of geopolitical insufficiency for having lost influence over areas considered strategic. Thus, reconquering these areas would mean recovering the “habitat” necessary for the Russian nation to prosper and feel secure.
It is important to mention that, in Ratzel’s and Kjellén’s formulations, the pursuit of Lebensraum or organic expansion is not morally qualified—it is treated as a natural process in the politics of power. Thus, on the discursive level, Russia can avoid overly aggressive rhetoric and resort to “natural” justifications: for example, claiming that it needs to occupy Ukraine for defensive purposes (security space) or to reunify peoples (a common cultural and historical space). Beneath these justifications, however, resonates the geopolitical imperative to acquire more territory and resources as a guarantee of national survival, something consonant with Ratzel’s theory. In fact, Russian Realpolitik frequently prioritizes the control of energy resources (gas, oil) and transportation routes. Expanding its influence over central Eurasia would also mean controlling oil pipelines, gas lines, and logistical corridors—essential elements of modern Lebensraum understood as access to vital resources and infrastructure.
In summary, by conquering Ukraine and extending its reach into Eurasia, Russia could effectively invoke the concept of Lebensraum: presenting its expansion not as mere imperialism, but as a necessity to secure indispensable lands and resources for its people and to correct the “injustice” of a vital space diminished by post-Cold War territorial losses. The theories of Ratzel and Kjellén together paint a picture in which Russian expansion emerges almost as a natural law—the great State reclaiming space to ensure its survival and development at the expense of smaller neighbors.
Trump, NATO, and the Threat of American Withdrawal
One of the most alarming changes with Trump's return to power is the tense relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump has long criticized allies for not meeting military spending targets, even threatening during his first term to withdraw the US from the alliance if members did not increase their contributions [2]. This threat, initially viewed with skepticism, became concrete after his re-election, leading European allies to seriously consider the possibility of having to defend themselves without American support [1]. In fact, Trump suggested in post-election interviews that the US would only remain in NATO if the allies “paid their bills” – otherwise, he “would seriously consider” leaving [2]. Such statements reinforced the warning that the US might not honor NATO's mutual defense commitment, precisely at a time of continuous Russian threat due to the war in Ukraine [1].
From a theoretical point of view, this posture of American retrenchment evokes the classic tension between maritime power and land power. Alfred Thayer Mahan emphasized that the global power of the US derived largely from its naval superiority and from alliances that ensured control over strategic maritime routes [9]. NATO, since 1949, has served not only to deter Soviet terrestrial advances in Eurasia, but also to secure the US naval presence in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean – a fundamental element according to Mahan. In turn, Halford Mackinder warned that the balance of global power depended on the control of the Eurasian “Heartland” (the central region of Eurasia). The withdrawal or disengagement of the US (a maritime power) from this region could open the way for a continental power (such as Russia) to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, unbalancing the power balance [3]. In other words, by threatening to leave NATO, Trump jeopardizes the principle of containment that prevented Russian dominance over Eastern Europe – something that Mackinder would see as a dangerous shift in global power in favor of the Heartland power.
Adopting an impartial tone, it is observed that European countries have reacted to this new reality with precautionary measures. Strategic reports already calculate the cost of an autonomous European defense: hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers and investments of hundreds of billions of euros would be required if the US ceased to guarantee the security of the continent [1]. European dependence on American military power is significant and, without it, there would be a need for a major reinforcement of European Armed Forces [1]. This mobilization practically reflects the anticipation of a power vacuum left by the US – a scenario in which Mackinder’s theory (on the primacy of the Heartland and the vulnerability of the “external crescent” where Western Europe is located) regains its relevance.
The US–Ukraine Economic Agreement: Strategic Minerals in Exchange for Support?
Another novelty of Trump's second term is the unprecedented and transactional manner in which Washington has been dealing with the war in Ukraine. Instead of emphasizing security guarantees and alliances, the Trump administration proposed a trade agreement with Ukraine focused on the exploitation of strategic minerals, linking American support to a direct economic benefit. According to sources close to the negotiations, the US and Ukraine are about to sign a pact to share the revenues from the exploitation of critical mineral resources on Ukrainian territory [19]. Materials such as titanium, lithium, rare earths, and uranium – vital for high-tech and defense industries – would be at the core of this agreement [6]. According to the known draft, Ukraine would allocate 50% of the profits from new mineral ventures to a fund controlled by the US, which would reinvest part of the resources in the country’s own reconstruction [6] [19].
It is noteworthy that the pact does not include explicit security guarantees for Kyiv, despite Ukraine remaining under direct military threat from Russia [19]. Essentially, the Trump administration offers financial support and economic investment in exchange for a share in Ukrainian natural resources, but without formally committing to Ukraine's defense in the event of a renewed Russian offensive [19]. American authorities argue that this economic partnership would already be sufficient to “secure Ukrainian interests,” as it would provide the US with its own incentives to desire Ukraine’s stability [19]. “What could be better for Ukraine than being in an economic partnership with the United States?” stated Mike Waltz, a US national security advisor, defending the proposal [19].
Analysts, however, assess the agreement in divided terms. For some, it represents a form of economic exploitation at a time of Ukraine's fragility – comparing the demand to share mineral wealth amid war to a scheme of “mafia protection” [19]. Steven Cook, from the Council on Foreign Relations, classified the offer as “extortion,” and political scientist Virginia P. Fortna observed that charging resources from an invaded country resembles predatory practices [19]. Joseph Nye adds that it is a short-term gain strategy that could be “disastrous in the long run” for American credibility, reflecting the transactional approach that Trump even adopted with close allies in other contexts [19]. On the other hand, some see a future advantage for Kyiv: journalist Pierre Briançon suggests that at least this agreement aligns American commercial interests with Ukraine’s future, which could, in theory, keep the US involved in Ukrainian prosperity in the long term [19]. It is even recalled that President Zelensky himself proposed last year the idea of sharing natural resources with the US to bring the interests of the two countries closer together [19].
From the perspective of geopolitical theories, this agreement illustrates a shift towards economic pragmatism in international relations, approaching concepts proposed by Kjellén. Rudolf Kjellén, who coined the term “geopolitics,” saw the State as a territorial organism that seeks to ensure its survival through self-sufficiency and the control of strategic resources [4]. Trump's demand for a share in Ukrainian resources in order to continue supporting the country reflects a logic of autarky and direct national interest – that is, foreign policy serving primarily to reinforce the economic and material position of the US. This view contrasts with the traditional cooperative approach, but aligns with Kjellén’s idea that powerful States tend to transform international relations into opportunities for their own gain, ensuring access to vital raw materials. Similarly, Friedrich Ratzel argued that States have a “propensity to expand their borders according to their capacities,” seeking vital space (Lebensraum) and resources to sustain their development [11]. The US–Ukraine pact, by conditioning military/economic aid on obtaining tangible advantages (half of the mineral profits), is reminiscent of Ratzel’s perspective: the US, as a rising economic power, expands its economic influence over Ukrainian territory like an organism extending itself to obtain the necessary resources for its well-being. It is, therefore, a form of economic expansionism at the expense of purely ideological commitments or collective security.
Peace Negotiations Excluding Ukraine and the Legitimacy of the Agreement
Another controversial point is the manner in which peace negotiations between Russia and the West have been conducted under Trump's administration. Since taking office, the American president has engaged directly with Moscow in pursuit of a ceasefire, deliberately keeping the Ukrainian government out of the initial discussions [6]. Trump expressed his desire to “leave Zelensky out of the conversation” and also excluded the European Union from any influence in the process [6]. This negotiation strategy—conducted without the presence of the primary interested party, Ukraine—raises serious questions about the legitimacy and sustainability of any resulting agreement.
Historically, peace agreements reached without the direct participation of one of the conflicting parties tend to face problems in implementation and acceptance.
The exclusion of Ukraine in the decision-making phase brings to light the issue of guarantees. As noted, the emerging agreement lacks formal US security guarantees for Ukraine. This implies that, after the agreement is signed, nothing will prevent Russia from launching a new offensive if it deems it convenient, knowing that the US has not committed to defending it militarily. Experts have already warned that a ceasefire without robust protection may only be a pause for Russian rearmament, rendering the conflict “frozen” temporarily and potentially resumed in the near future. The European strategic community has expressed similar concern: without American deterrence, the risk of further Russian aggressions in the region increases considerably [1]. Denmark, for example, has released intelligence reports warning of possible imminent Russian attacks, prompting neighboring countries to accelerate plans for independent defense [1].
The legitimacy of this asymmetric peace agreement (negotiated without Ukraine fully at the table and under economic coercion) is also questionable from a legal and moral point of view. It violates the principle of self-determination by imposing terms decided by great powers on a sovereign country—a practice reminiscent of dark chapters in diplomacy, such as the Munich Agreement of 1938, when powers determined the fate of Czechoslovakia without its consent. In the current case, Ukraine would end up signing the agreement, but from a position of weakness, raising doubts about how durable such a commitment would be.
From Mackinder’s perspective, Ukraine’s removal from the battlefield without guarantees essentially means admitting a greater influence of Russia (the Heartland power) over Eastern Europe. This would alter the balance in Eurasia in a potentially lasting way. Furthermore, the fact that great powers negotiate over the heads of a smaller country evokes the imperial logic of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when empires decided among themselves the divisions of foreign territories—a behavior that Mackinder saw as likely in a world of a “closed system.” With the entire world already occupied by States, Mackinder predicted that powers would begin to compete for influence within this consolidated board, often subjugating smaller states to gain advantage [3]. The US–Russia negotiation regarding Ukraine, without proper Ukrainian representation, exemplifies this type of neo-imperial dynamic in the twenty-first century.
Also noteworthy is the consonance with the ideas of Ratzel and Kjellén: both viewed smaller states as easily relegated to the status of satellites or even “parasitic organisms” in the orbit of larger states. Kjellén spoke of the intrinsic vulnerability of states with little territorial depth or economic dependence, making them susceptible to external pressures [4][20]. Ukraine, weakened by war and dependent on external aid, becomes a concrete example of this theorized vulnerability: it has had to cede strategic resources and accept terms dictated against its will in an attempt to secure its immediate survival. The resulting agreement, therefore, reflects a power imbalance characteristic of the hierarchical international relations described by classical geopolitical theorists.
Implicit Territorial Concessions and Trump’s Public Discourse
A central and controversial point in Trump’s statements regarding the war in Ukraine is the insinuation of territorial concessions to Russia as part of the conflict’s resolution. Publicly, Trump avoided explicitly condemning Russian aggression and even stated that he considered it “unlikely” that Ukraine would be able to retake all the areas occupied by the Russians [16]. In debates and interviews, he suggested that “if I were president, the war would end in 24 hours,” implying that he would force an understanding between Kyiv and Moscow that would likely involve ceding some territory in exchange for peace. This position marks a break with the previous US policy of not recognizing any territorial acquisitions made by force and fuels speculations that a future peace agreement sponsored by Trump would legitimize at least part of Russia’s gains since 2014 (Crimea, Donbass, and areas seized during the 2022 invasion).
The actions of his administration corroborate this interpretation. As discussed, the economic agreement focuses on the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources, many of which are located precisely in regions currently under Russian military control, such as parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk, Lugansk, and the Azov Sea area [6]. A Ukrainian geologist, Hanna Liventseva, highlighted that “most of these elements (strategic minerals) are found in the south of the Ukrainian Shield, mainly in the Azov region, and most of these territories are currently invaded by Russia” [6]. This means that, to make joint exploitation viable, Russia’s de facto control over these areas would have to be recognized—or at least tolerated—in the short term. In other words, the pact indirectly and tacitly accepts Russian territorial gains, as it involves sharing the profits from resources that are not currently accessible to the Kyiv government.
Furthermore, figures close to Trump have made explicit statements regarding the possibility of territorial cession. Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, publicly stated that Zelensky might need to “cede land to Russia” to end the war [8]. This remark—made public in March 2025—confirms that the Trump White House considers it natural for Ukraine to relinquish parts of its territory in favor of an agreement. Such a stance marks a break from the previous Western consensus, which condemned any territorial gains by force. Under Trump, a pragmatic view (in the eyes of his supporters) or a cynical one (according to his critics) seems to prevail: sacrificing principles of territorial integrity to quickly end hostilities and secure immediate economic benefits.
In theoretical terms, this inclination to validate territorial gains by force recalls the concept of Realpolitik and the geopolitical Darwinism that influenced thinkers such as Ratzel. In Ratzel’s organic conception, expanding states naturally absorb neighboring territories when they are strong enough to do so, while declining states lose territory—a process almost biological in the selection of the fittest [11]. The Trump administration’s acceptance that Ukraine should “give something” to Moscow to seal peace reflects a normalization of this geopolitical selection process: it recognizes the aggressor (Russia) as having the “right” to retain conquered lands, because that is how power realities on the ground dictate. Mackinder, although firmly opposed to allowing Russia to dominate the Heartland, would see this outcome as the logical consequence of the lack of engagement from maritime powers (the USA and the United Kingdom, for example) in sustaining the Ukrainian counterattack. Without the active involvement of maritime power to balance the dispute, land power prevails in Eastern Europe.
From the perspective of international legitimacy, the cession of Ukrainian territories—whether de jure or de facto—creates a dangerous precedent in the post-Cold War era. Rewarding violent aggression with territorial gains may encourage similar strategies in other parts of the world, undermining the architecture of collective security. This is possibly a return to a world of spheres of influence, where great powers define borders and zones of control according to their convenience—something that the rules-based order after 1945 sought to avoid. Here, academic impartiality requires noting that coercion for territorial concessions rarely produces lasting peace, as the aggrieved party—in this case, Ukraine—may accept temporarily but will continue to assert its rights in the long term, as has occurred with other territorial injustices in history.
Territorial Ambitions of Trump: Greenland and Canada
Beyond the Eurasian theater of war, Trump revived geopolitical ambitions involving territories traditionally allied with the US: Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark) and Canada. As early as 2019, during his first term, Trump shocked the world by proposing to buy Greenland—rich in minerals and strategically positioned in the Arctic. Upon his return to power, he went further: expressing a “renewed interest” in acquiring Greenland and publicly suggesting the incorporation of Canada as the 51st American state [2].
In January 2025, during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, he even displayed maps in which the US and Canada appeared merged into a single country, while Greenland was marked as a future American possession [2]. Posts by the president on social media included satirical images with a map of North America where Canada was labeled “51st” and Greenland designated as “Our Land” [2].
Such moves were met with concern and disbelief by allies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on an open microphone warning that Trump’s fixation on annexation “is real” and not just a joke [7]. Trudeau emphasized that Washington appeared to covet Canada’s vast mineral resources, which would explain the insistence on the idea of absorption [7]. In public, Trump argued that Canadians “would be more prosperous as American citizens,” promising tax cuts and better services should they become part of the US [7]. On the Danish side, the reaction to the revived plan regarding Greenland was firmly negative—as it was in 2019—reaffirming that the territory is not for sale. Trump, however, insinuated that the issue might be one of national security, indicating that American possession of Greenland would prevent adverse influences (a reference to China and Russia in the Arctic) [2]. More worryingly, he refused to rule out the use of military means to obtain the island, although he assured that he had no intention of invading Canada by force (in the Canadian case, he spoke of “economic force” to forge a union) [2].
This series of initiatives reflects an unprecedented expansionist impetus by the US in recent times, at least in discourse. Analyzing this through the lens of classical geopolitics offers interesting insights. Friedrich Ratzel and his notion of Lebensraum suggest that powerful states, upon reaching a certain predominance, seek to expand their territory by influencing or incorporating adjacent areas. Trump, by targeting the immediate neighbor (Canada) and a nearby strategic territory (Greenland), appears to resurrect this logic of territorial expansion for the sake of gaining space and resources. Ratzel saw such expansion almost as a natural process for vigorous states, comparable to the growth of an organism [11]. From this perspective, the US would be exercising its “right” of expansion in North America and the polar region, integrating areas of vital interest.
Additionally, Alfred Mahan’s view on maritime power helps to understand the strategic value of Greenland. Mahan postulated that control of key maritime chokepoints and naval bases ensures global advantage [9]. Greenland, situated between the North Atlantic and the Arctic, has become increasingly relevant as climate change opens new polar maritime routes and reveals vast mineral deposits (including rare earth elements and oil). For the US, having a presence or sovereignty over Greenland would mean dominating the gateway to the Arctic and denying this space to rivals. This aligns with Mahan’s strategy of securing commercial and military routes (in this case, potential Arctic routes) and resources to consolidate naval supremacy. On the other hand, the incorporation of Canada—with its enormous territory, Arctic coastline, and abundant natural resources—would provide the US with formidable geoeconomic and geopolitical reinforcement, practically eliminating vulnerabilities along its northern border. This is an ambitious project that also echoes ideas of Kjellén, for whom an ideal State should seek territorial completeness and economic self-sufficiency within its region. Incorporating Canada would be the pinnacle of American regional autarky, turning North America into a unified bloc under Washington (a scenario reminiscent of the “pan-regions” conceived by twentieth-century geopoliticians influenced by Kjellén).
It is important to note, however, that these ambitions face enormous legal and political obstacles. The sovereignty of Canada and Greenland (Denmark) is guaranteed by international law, and both peoples categorically reject the idea of annexation. Any hostile action by the US against these countries would shake alliances and the world order itself. Even so, the very fact that an American president suggests such possibilities already produces geopolitical effects: traditional partners begin to distrust Washington’s intentions, seek alternative alliances, and strengthen nationalist discourses of resistance. In summary, Trump’s expansionist intentions in Greenland and Canada rekindle old territorial issues and paradoxically place the US in the position of a revisionist power—a role once associated with empires in search of colonies.
Implications for Brazil and South America: A New Neocolonization?
In light of this geopolitical reconfiguration driven by Trump's USA—with a reordering of alliances and a possible partition of spheres of influence among great powers—the question arises: what is the impact on Brazil and the other countries of South America? Traditionally, Latin America has been under the aegis of the Monroe Doctrine (1823), which established non-interference by Europe in the region and, implicitly, the primacy of the USA in the Western Hemisphere. In the post–Cold War period, this influence translated more into political and economic leadership, without formal annexations or direct territorial domination. However, the current context points to a kind of “neocolonization” of the Global South, in which larger powers seek to control resources and peripheral governments in an indirect yet effective manner.
Mackinder’s theories can be used to illuminate this dynamic. As mentioned, Mackinder envisioned the twentieth-century world as a closed system, in which there were no longer any unknown lands to be colonized—hence, the powers would fight among themselves for control over already occupied regions [3]. He predicted that Africa and Latin America (then largely European colonies or semi-colonies) would continue as boards upon which the great powers would project their disputes, a form of neocolonialism. In the current scenario, we see the USA proposing exchanges of protection for resources (as in Ukraine) and even leaders of developing countries seeking similar agreements. A notable example: the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, praised the USA–Ukraine initiative and suggested an analogous agreement involving Congolese mineral wealth in exchange for US support against internal rebels (M23) [19]. In other words, African countries and possibly South American ones may enter into this logic of offering privileged access to resources (cobalt, lithium, food, biodiversity) in order to obtain security guarantees or investments. This represents a regression to the times when external powers dictated the directions of the South in exchange for promises of protection, characterizing a strategic neocolonialism.
For Brazil, in particular, this rearrangement generates both opportunities and risks. As a regional power with considerable diplomatic autonomy, Brazil has historically sought to balance relationships with the USA, Europe, China, and other actors, avoiding automatic alignments. However, in a world where Trump’s USA is actively redefining spheres of influence—possibly making deals with Russia that divide priorities (for example, Washington focusing on the Western Hemisphere and Moscow on the Eastern)—South America could once again be seen as an exclusive American sphere of influence. From this perspective, Washington could pressure South American countries to align with its directives, limiting partnerships with rivals (such as China) and seeking privileged access to strategic resources (such as the Amazon, fresh water, minerals, and agricultural commodities). Some indications are already emerging: Trump’s transactional approach mentioned by Nye included pressures on Canada and Mexico regarding border and trade issues, under the threat of commercial sanctions. It would not be unthinkable to adopt a hard line, for example, with regard to Brazilian environmental policies (linked to the Amazon) or Brazil’s relations with China, using tariffs or incentives as leverage—a sort of geopolitics of economic coercion.
On the other hand, Brazil and its neighbors could also attempt to take advantage of the Sino–North American competition. If the USA is distracted consolidating its hemispheric “hard power” hegemony (even with annexation fantasies in the north), powers such as China may advance their economic presence in South America through investments and trade (Belt and Road, infrastructure financing)—which is already happening. This would constitute an indirect neocolonial dispute in the South: Chinese loans and investments versus American demands and agreements, partly reminiscent of the nineteenth-century imperial competition (when the United Kingdom, USA, and others competed for Latin American markets and resources).
From a conceptual standpoint, Mackinder might classify South America as part of the “Outer Crescent” (external insular crescent)—peripheral to the great Eurasian “World-Island,” yet still crucial as a source of resources and a strategic position in the South Atlantic and Pacific. If the USA consolidates an informal empire in the Americas, it would be reinforcing its “insular bastion” far from the Eurasian Heartland, a strategy that Mackinder once suggested for maritime powers: to control islands and peripheral continents to compensate for the disadvantage of not controlling the Heartland. However, an excessive US dominance in the South could lead to local resistance and alternative alignments, unbalancing the region.
Kjellén would add that for Brazil to maintain its decisive sovereignty, it will need to strengthen its autarky and internal cohesion—in other words, reduce vulnerabilities (economic, military, social) that external powers might exploit [4]. Meanwhile, Mahan might point out the importance for Brazil of controlling its maritime routes and coastlines (South Atlantic) to avoid being at the mercy of a naval power like the USA. And Ratzel would remind us that states that do not expand their influence tend to be absorbed by foreign influences—which, in the context of Brazil, does not mean conquering neighboring territories, but rather actively leading South American integration to create a block more resilient to external intrusion.
In summary, South America finds itself in a more competitive and segmented world, where major players are resurrecting practices from past eras. The notion of “neocolonization” here does not imply direct occupation, but rather mechanisms of dependency: whether through unequal economic agreements or through diplomatic or military pressure for alignment. Brazil, as the largest economy and territory on the subcontinent, will have to navigate with heightened caution. A new global power balance, marked by the division of spheres of influence among the USA, China, and Russia, may reduce the sovereign maneuvering space of South American countries unless they act jointly. Thus, theoretical reflection suggests the need for South–South strategies, reinforcement of regional organizations, and diversification of partnerships to avoid falling into modern “neocolonial traps.”
Conclusion
The emerging post–re-election geopolitical conjuncture of Donald Trump signals a return to classical geopolitical principles, after several decades of predominance of institutional liberal views. We witness the revaluation of concepts such as spheres of influence, exchanges of protection for resources, naval power versus land power, and disputes over territory and raw materials—all central themes in the writings of Mackinder, Mahan, Kjellén, and Ratzel at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. An impartial analysis of these events, in light of these theories, shows internal coherence in Trump’s actions: although controversial, they follow a logic of maximizing national interest and the relative power of the USA on the world stage, even at the expense of established principles and alliances.
Halford Mackinder reminds us that, in a closed world with no new lands to conquer, the great powers will seek to redistribute the world among themselves [3]. This seems to manifest in the direct understandings between the USA and Russia over the fate of Ukraine, and in American ambitions in the Arctic and the Western Hemisphere. Alfred Mahan emphasizes that the control of the seas and strategic positions ensures supremacy—we see reflections of this in Trump’s obsession with Greenland (Arctic) and the possible neglect of the importance of maintaining NATO (and therefore the North Atlantic) as a cohesive bloc, something that Mahan’s theory would criticize due to the risk of a naval vacuum. Rudolf Kjellén and Friedrich Ratzel provide the framework to understand the more aggressive facet of expansionist nationalism: the idea of the State as an organism that needs to grow, secure resources, and seek self-sufficiency explains everything from the extortionate agreement imposed on Ukraine to the annexation rhetoric regarding Canada.
The potential consequences are profound. In the short term, we may witness a precarious ceasefire in the Ukraine war, with consolidated Russian territorial gains and Ukraine economically tied to the USA, but without formal military protection—a fragile “armed peace.” Western Europe, alarmed, may accelerate its independent militarization, perhaps marking the beginning of European defense autonomy, as is already openly debated [1]. At the far end of the globe, American activism in the Arctic and the Americas may reshape alliances: countries like Canada, once aligned with Washington, might seek to guarantee their sovereignty by distancing themselves from it; powers like China could take advantage of the openings to increase their presence in Latin America and Africa through economic diplomacy; and emerging countries of the Global South may have to choose between submitting to new “guardianships” or strengthening South–South cooperation.
Ultimately, the current situation reinforces the relevance of studying geopolitics through historical lenses. The actions of the Trump administration indicate that, despite all technological and normative advances, the competition for geographic power has not disappeared—it has merely assumed new formats. Academic impartiality obliges us not to prematurely judge whether these strategies will be successful or beneficial, but history and theory warn that neo-imperial movements tend to generate counter-reactions. As Mackinder insinuated, “every shock or change anywhere reverberates around the world,” and a sudden move by a superpower tends to provoke unforeseen adjustments and chain conflicts. It remains to be seen how the other actors—including Brazil and its neighbors—will adapt to this new chapter in the great struggle for global power, in which centuries-old theories once again have a surprising explanatory power over present events.
Bibliography
[1] A Referência. (2025). Europa calcula o custo de se defender sem os EUA: 300 mil soldados e 250 bilhões de euros a mais. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://areferencia.com/europa/europa-calcula-o-custo-de-se-defender-sem-os-eua-300-mil-soldados-e-250-bilhoes-de-euros-a-mais/#:\~:text=Europa%20calcula%20o%20custo%20de,bilh%C3%B5es%20de%20euros%20a%20mais
[2] Brexit Institute. (2025). What happens if Trump invades Greenland? Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/2025/01/what-happens-if-trump-invades-greenland/#:\~:text=Ever%20since%20Donald%20Trump%20announced,agreed%20in%20Wales%20in%202014
[3] Cfettweis C:CST22(2)8576.DVI. (2025). Mackinder and Angell. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://cfettweis.com/wp-content/uploads/Mackinder-and-Angell.pdf#:\~:text=meant%20the%20beginning%20of%20an,Mackinder
[4] Diva-Portal. (2025). The geopolitics of territorial relativity. Poland seen by Rudolf Kjellén. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1696547/FULLTEXT02#:\~:text=,The%20state%20territory
[5] Geopolitical Monitor. (2025). The Russo-Ukrainian War and Mackinder’s Heartland Thesis. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-ukraine-war-and-mackinders-heartland-thesis/#:\~:text=In%201904%2C%20Sir%20Halford%20J,in%20adding%20a%20substantial%20oceanic
[6] Instituto Humanitas Unisinos. (2025). Trump obriga Zelensky a hipotecar a exploração de minerais críticos em troca do seu apoio. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.ihu.unisinos.br/648986-trump-obriga-zelensky-a-hipotecar-a-exploracao-de-minerais-criticos-em-troca-do-seu-apoio#:\~:text=Essa%20troca%20inclui%20os%20cobi%C3%A7ados,s%C3%A3o%20praticamente%20inexploradas%20no%20pa%C3%ADs
[7] Politico. (2025). Trump’s annexation fixation is no joke, Trudeau warns. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/07/canada-trudeau-trump-51-state-00203156#:\~:text=TORONTO%20%E2%80%94%20Prime%20Minister%20Justin,Canada%20becoming%20the%2051st%20state%2C%E2%80%9D%20Trudeau%20said
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[9] The Geostrata. (2025). Alfred Thayer Mahan and Supremacy of Naval Power. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.thegeostrata.com/post/alfred-thayer-mahan-and-supremacy-of-naval-power#:\~:text=Alfred%20Thayer%20Mahan%20and%20Supremacy,control%20over%20maritime%20trade%20routes
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[15] Wikipedia. (2025). Lebensraum. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebensraum#:\~:text=The%20German%20geographer%20and%20ethnographer,into%20the%20Greater%20Germanic%20Reich
[16] YouTube. (2025). Trump says Ukraine 'unlikely to get all land back' or join NATO [Vídeo]. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmHzAVLhsXU#:\~:text=Trump%20says%20Ukraine%20%27unlikely%20to,for%20it%20to%20join%20NATO
[17] U.S. Naval Institute. (2025) Operation World Peace. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1955/june/operation-world-peace#:\\~:text=“The Mahan doctrine%2C” according to,the word “airships” is more
[18] Emissary. (2024) Trump’s Greenland and Panama Canal Threats Are a Throwback to an Old, Misguided Foreign Policy. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/01/trump-greenland-panama-canal-monroe-doctrine-policy?lang=en
[19] A Referência. Acordo EUA-Ucrânia está praticamente fechado, mas analistas se dividem sobre quem sairá ganhando. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://areferencia.com/europa/acordo-eua-ucrania-esta-praticamente-fechado-mas-analistas-se-dividem-sobre-quem-saira-ganhando/#:\\~:text=EUA e 17,o acordo a seu favor
[20] Wikipedia. (2025) Geopolitik. Recuperado em 3 de março de 2025, de https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitik#:\\~:text=Rudolph Kjellén was Ratzel's Swedish,Kjellén's State
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@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43
2025-05-06 14:05:40If you're an engineer stepping into the Bitcoin space from the broader crypto ecosystem, you're probably carrying a mental model shaped by speed, flexibility, and rapid innovation. That makes sense—most blockchain platforms pride themselves on throughput, programmability, and dev agility.
But Bitcoin operates from a different set of first principles. It’s not competing to be the fastest network or the most expressive smart contract platform. It’s aiming to be the most credible, neutral, and globally accessible value layer in human history.
Here’s why that matters—and why Bitcoin is not just an alternative crypto asset, but a structural necessity in the global financial system.
1. Bitcoin Fixes the Triffin Dilemma—Not With Policy, But Protocol
The Triffin Dilemma shows us that any country issuing the global reserve currency must run persistent deficits to supply that currency to the world. That’s not a flaw of bad leadership—it’s an inherent contradiction. The U.S. must debase its own monetary integrity to meet global dollar demand. That’s a self-terminating system.
Bitcoin sidesteps this entirely by being:
- Non-sovereign – no single nation owns it
- Hard-capped – no central authority can inflate it
- Verifiable and neutral – anyone with a full node can enforce the rules
In other words, Bitcoin turns global liquidity into an engineering problem, not a political one. No other system, fiat or crypto, has achieved that.
2. Bitcoin’s “Ossification” Is Intentional—and It's a Feature
From the outside, Bitcoin development may look sluggish. Features are slow to roll out. Code changes are conservative. Consensus rules are treated as sacred.
That’s the point.
When you’re building the global monetary base layer, stability is not a weakness. It’s a prerequisite. Every other financial instrument, app, or protocol that builds on Bitcoin depends on one thing: assurance that the base layer won’t change underneath them without extreme scrutiny.
So-called “ossification” is just another term for predictability and integrity. And when the market does demand change (SegWit, Taproot), Bitcoin’s soft-fork governance process has proven capable of deploying it safely—without coercive central control.
3. Layered Architecture: Throughput Is Not a Base Layer Concern
You don’t scale settlement at the base layer. You build layered systems. Just as TCP/IP doesn't need to carry YouTube traffic directly, Bitcoin doesn’t need to process every microtransaction.
Instead, it anchors:
- Lightning (fast payments)
- Fedimint (community custody)
- Ark (privacy + UTXO compression)
- Statechains, sidechains, and covenants (coming evolution)
All of these inherit Bitcoin’s security and scarcity, while handling volume off-chain, in ways that maintain auditability and self-custody.
4. Universal Assayability Requires Minimalism at the Base Layer
A core design constraint of Bitcoin is that any participant, anywhere in the world, must be able to independently verify the validity of every transaction and block—past and present—without needing permission or relying on third parties.
This property is called assayability—the ability to “test” or verify the authenticity and integrity of received bitcoin, much like verifying the weight and purity of a gold coin.
To preserve this:
- The base layer must remain resource-light, so running a full node stays accessible on commodity hardware.
- Block sizes must remain small enough to prevent centralization of verification.
- Historical data must remain consistent and tamper-evident, enabling proof chains across time and jurisdiction.
Any base layer that scales by increasing throughput or complexity undermines this fundamental guarantee, making the network more dependent on trust and surveillance infrastructure.
Bitcoin prioritizes global verifiability over throughput—because trustless money requires that every user can check the money they receive.
5. Governance: Not Captured, Just Resistant to Coercion
The current controversy around
OP_RETURN
and proposals to limit inscriptions is instructive. Some prominent devs have advocated for changes to block content filtering. Others see it as overreach.Here's what matters:
- No single dev, or team, can force changes into the network. Period.
- Bitcoin Core is not “the source of truth.” It’s one implementation. If it deviates from market consensus, it gets forked, sidelined, or replaced.
- The economic majority—miners, users, businesses—enforce Bitcoin’s rules, not GitHub maintainers.
In fact, recent community resistance to perceived Core overreach only reinforces Bitcoin’s resilience. Engineers who posture with narcissistic certainty, dismiss dissent, or attempt to capture influence are routinely neutralized by the market’s refusal to upgrade or adopt forks that undermine neutrality or openness.
This is governance via credible neutrality and negative feedback loops. Power doesn’t accumulate in one place. It’s constantly checked by the network’s distributed incentives.
6. Bitcoin Is Still in Its Infancy—And That’s a Good Thing
You’re not too late. The ecosystem around Bitcoin—especially L2 protocols, privacy tools, custody innovation, and zero-knowledge integrations—is just beginning.
If you're an engineer looking for:
- Systems with global scale constraints
- Architectures that optimize for integrity, not speed
- Consensus mechanisms that resist coercion
- A base layer with predictable monetary policy
Then Bitcoin is where serious systems engineers go when they’ve outgrown crypto theater.
Take-away
Under realistic, market-aware assumptions—where:
- Bitcoin’s ossification is seen as a stability feature, not inertia,
- Market forces can and do demand and implement change via tested, non-coercive mechanisms,
- Proof-of-work is recognized as the only consensus mechanism resistant to fiat capture,
- Wealth concentration is understood as a temporary distribution effect during early monetization,
- Low base layer throughput is a deliberate design constraint to preserve verifiability and neutrality,
- And innovation is layered by design, with the base chain providing integrity, not complexity...
Then Bitcoin is not a fragile or inflexible system—it is a deliberately minimal, modular, and resilient protocol.
Its governance is not leaderless chaos; it's a negative-feedback structure that minimizes the power of individuals or institutions to coerce change. The very fact that proposals—like controversial OP_RETURN restrictions—can be resisted, forked around, or ignored by the market without breaking the system is proof of decentralized control, not dysfunction.
Bitcoin is an adversarially robust monetary foundation. Its value lies not in how fast it changes, but in how reliably it doesn't—unless change is forced by real, bottom-up demand and implemented through consensus-tested soft forks.
In this framing, Bitcoin isn't a slower crypto. It's the engineering benchmark for systems that must endure, not entertain.
Final Word
Bitcoin isn’t moving slowly because it’s dying. It’s moving carefully because it’s winning. It’s not an app platform or a sandbox. It’s a protocol layer for the future of money.
If you're here because you want to help build that future, you’re in the right place.
nostr:nevent1qqswr7sla434duatjp4m89grvs3zanxug05pzj04asxmv4rngvyv04sppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgs9tc6ruevfqu7nzt72kvq8te95dqfkndj5t8hlx6n79lj03q9v6xcrqsqqqqqp0n8wc2
nostr:nevent1qqsd5hfkqgskpjjq5zlfyyv9nmmela5q67tgu9640v7r8t828u73rdqpr4mhxue69uhkymmnw3ezucnfw33k76tww3ux76m09e3k7mf0qgsvr6dt8ft292mv5jlt7382vje0mfq2ccc3azrt4p45v5sknj6kkscrqsqqqqqp02vjk5
nostr:nevent1qqstrszamvffh72wr20euhrwa0fhzd3hhpedm30ys4ct8dpelwz3nuqpr4mhxue69uhkymmnw3ezucnfw33k76tww3ux76m09e3k7mf0qgs8a474cw4lqmapcq8hr7res4nknar2ey34fsffk0k42cjsdyn7yqqrqsqqqqqpnn3znl
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 18:41:43Why
is
this
noton
separate
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-24 18:17:09Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃
Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)
Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!
Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".
Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju
Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović
Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar
„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)
Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!
ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.
Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.
Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.
U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.
Wikipedia: Redenomination
Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.
Komentari
brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.
Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.
Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.
@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.
brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.
Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.
Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.
@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.
HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.
@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?
Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?
HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.
@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.
https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/
HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.
@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.
Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.
Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.
Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.
loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...
A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?
@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.
Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?
2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...
@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.
Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k
Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.
Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.
Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.
@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.
Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.
Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.
Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.
Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.
Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.
I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..
@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.
A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.
Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.
Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.
Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.
Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.
@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?
Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster
Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.
Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D
Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.
Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.
p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu
@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.
Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".
Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.
kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:
-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.
-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.
-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.
-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.
-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?
-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.
-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.
OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.
Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.
@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.
Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.
Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.
Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.
BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.
Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.
Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.
Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.
Svako dobro!
kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.
Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.
Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).
Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.
Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.
Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.
Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.
Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.
@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.
Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.
Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.
Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).
Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.
kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.
Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...
Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?
XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...
Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.
Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I
@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me
Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!
Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.
Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.
Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.
kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.
A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?
Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.
Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!
Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.
Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.
@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom
Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.
Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.
ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.
Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?
Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 18:17:22Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus
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@ eac63075:b4988b48
2025-03-03 17:10:03Abstract
This paper examines a hypothetical scenario in which the United States, under Trump’s leadership, withdraws from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, thereby enabling a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America. Drawing on classical geopolitical theories—specifically those of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel—the study analyzes how these frameworks can elucidate the evolving power dynamics and territorial ambitions in a reconfigured global order. The discussion highlights Mackinder’s notion of the Eurasian Heartland and its strategic importance, Mahan’s emphasis on maritime power and control of strategic routes, Kjellén’s view of the state as an expanding organism, and Ratzel’s concept of Lebensraum as a justification for territorial expansion. The paper also explores contemporary developments, such as the US–Ukraine economic agreement and Trump’s overt territorial ambitions involving Greenland and Canada, in light of these theories. By juxtaposing traditional geopolitical concepts with current international relations, the study aims to shed light on the potential implications of such shifts for regional stability, global security, and the balance of power, particularly in relation to emerging neocolonial practices in Latin America.
Introduction
In recent years, the geopolitical dynamics involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have sparked analyses from different theoretical perspectives. This paper examines recent events – presupposing a scenario in which Donald Trump withdraws the US from NATO and reduces its support for Europe, allowing a Russian conquest of Ukraine and the expansion of Moscow’s influence over Eurasia, while the US consolidates its dominance over South America – in light of classical geopolitical theories. The ideas of Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Rudolf Kjellén, and Friedrich Ratzel are used as reference points. The proposal is to impartially evaluate how each theory can elucidate the developments of this hypothetical scenario, relating Russian territorial expansion in Eurasia to the strategic retreat of the US to the Western Hemisphere.
Initially, we will outline Mackinder’s conception of the Heartland (the central Eurasian territory) and the crucial role of Eastern Europe and Ukraine in the quest for global dominance. Next, we will discuss Mahan’s ideas regarding maritime power and the control of strategic routes, considering the impacts on the naval power balance among the US, Russia, and other maritime powers such as the United Kingdom and Japan. Subsequently, we will examine Kjellén’s organic theory of the state, interpreting the Russian expansionist strategy as a reflection of a state organism in search of vital space. In the same vein, Ratzel’s concept of “Lebensraum” will be explored, along with how Russia could justify territorial expansion based on resources and territory. Finally, the paper connects these theories to the current political context, analyzing the direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow (overlooking Ukraine and Europe), the US policy toward authoritarian regimes in Latin America, and the notion of a hemispheric division of power – the “Island of the Americas” under North American hegemony versus an Eurasia dominated by Russia. Lastly, it considers the possibility that such a geopolitical arrangement may foster the strengthening of authoritarian governments globally, rather than containing them, thus altering the paradigms of the liberal world order.
The Heartland of Mackinder: Ukraine, Eurasia, and Global Dominance
Halford J. Mackinder, a British geographer and pioneer of geopolitics, proposed the celebrated Heartland Theory in the early twentieth century. Mackinder divided the world into geostrategic zones and identified the Heartland—the central continental mass of Eurasia—as the “geographical pivot of history” [5]. His most famous maxim encapsulates this vision: “who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; who rules the World Island commands the world” [5]. Eastern Europe and, in particular, the region of present-day Ukraine, play a key role in this formula. This is because, for Mackinder, Eastern Europe functions as a gateway to the Heartland, providing access to resources and a strategic position for the projection of continental power [5].
Applying this theory to our scenario, the conquest of Ukraine and Eastern European countries by Russia would have profound geopolitical implications. From a Mackinderian point of view, such a conquest would enormously strengthen Russia’s position in the Heartland by adding manpower (population) and Ukraine’s industrial and agricultural resources to its power base [5]. In fact, Mackinder argued that controlling the Heartland conferred formidable geostrategic advantages—a vast terrestrial “natural fortress” protected from naval invasions and rich in resources such as wheat, minerals, and fuels [5]. Thus, if Moscow were to incorporate Ukraine (renowned for its fertile soil and grain production, as well as its mineral reserves) and extend its influence over Eastern Europe, Russia would consolidate the Heartland under its direct control. In this context, the absence of the USA (withdrawn from NATO and less engaged in Europe) would remove an important obstacle to Russian predominance in the region.
With central and eastern Eurasia under Russian influence, it would be possible to move toward the realization of the geopolitical nightmare described by Mackinder for Western maritime powers: a hegemonic continental power capable of projecting power to both Europe and Asia. Mackinder himself warned that if a Heartland power gained additional access to an oceanic coastline—in other words, if it combined land power with a significant maritime front—it would constitute a “danger” to global freedom [5]. In the scenario considered, besides advancing into Eastern Europe, Russia would already possess strategic maritime outlets (for example, in the Black Sea, via Crimea, and in the Baltic, via Kaliningrad or the Baltic States if influenced). Thus, the control of Ukraine would reinforce Russia’s position in the Black Sea and facilitate projection into the Eastern Mediterranean, expanding its oceanic front. From a Mackinderian perspective, this could potentially transform Russia into the dominant power of the “World Island” (the combined mass of Europe, Asia, and Africa), thereby unbalancing the global geopolitical order [5].
It is worth noting that, historically, Mackinder’s doctrine influenced containment strategies: both in the interwar period and during the Cold War, efforts were made to prevent a single power from controlling the Heartland and Eastern Europe. NATO, for example, can be seen as an instrument to prevent Soviet/Russian advances in Europe, in line with Mackinder’s imperative to “contain the Heartland.” Thus, if the USA were to abandon that role—by leaving NATO and tacitly accepting the Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia—we would be witnessing an inversion of the principles that have guided Western policy for decades. In short, under Mackinder’s theory, the Russian conquest of Ukraine and beyond would represent the key for Russia to command the Heartland and, potentially, challenge global hegemony, especially in a scenario where the USA self-restricts to the Western Hemisphere.
The Maritime Power of Mahan and the Naval Balance between West and East
While Mackinder emphasized continental land power, Alfred Thayer Mahan, a nineteenth-century American naval strategist, highlighted the crucial role of maritime power in global dominance. In his work The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890), Mahan studied the example of the British Empire and concluded that control of the seas paved the way for British supremacy as a world power [10]. He argued that a strong navy and the control of strategic maritime routes were decisive factors for projecting military, political, and economic power. His doctrine can be summarized in the following points: (1) the United States should aspire to be a world power; (2) control of the seas is necessary to achieve that status; (3) such control is obtained through a powerful fleet of warships [17]. In other words, for Mahan, whoever dominates the maritime routes and possesses naval superiority will be in a position to influence global destinies, ensuring trade, supplies, and the rapid movement of military forces.
In the proposed scenario, in which the USA withdraws militarily from Europe and possibly from the Eurasian stage, Mahan’s ideas raise questions about the distribution of maritime power and its effects. Traditionally, the US Navy operates globally, ensuring freedom of navigation and deterring challenges in major seas (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, etc.). A withdrawal of the USA from NATO could also signal a reduction in its naval presence in the Northeast Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and other areas close to Eurasia. In such a case, who would fill this naval vacuum? Russia, although primarily a land power, has been attempting to modernize its navy and has specific interests—for example, consolidating its dominance in the Black Sea and maintaining a presence in the Mediterranean (with a naval base in Tartus, Syria). The United Kingdom, a historic European maritime power, would remain aligned with the USA but, without American military support in Europe, might potentially be overwhelmed trying to contain an increasingly assertive Russian navy in European waters on its own. Japan, another significant maritime actor allied with the USA, is concerned with the naval balance in the Pacific; without full American engagement, Tokyo might be compelled to expand its own naval power to contain both Russia in the Far East (which maintains a fleet in the Pacific) and, especially, the growing Chinese navy.
According to Mahan’s thinking, strategic maritime routes and choke points (crucial straits and channels) become contested prizes in this power game. With the USA focusing on the Americas, one could imagine Washington reinforcing control over the Panama Canal and Caribbean routes—reviving an “American Gulf” policy in the Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. In fact, indications of this orientation emerge in statements attributed to Trump, who once suggested reclaiming direct control over Panama, transforming Canada into a North American state, and even “annexing” Greenland due to its Arctic geopolitical importance [18]. These aspirations reflect a quest to secure advantageous maritime positions near the American continent.
Conversely, in the absence of American presence in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean, Russia would have free rein for regional maritime projection. This could include anything from the unrestricted use of the Black Sea (after dominating Ukraine, thereby ensuring full access to Crimea and Ukrainian ports) to greater influence in the Eastern Mediterranean via Syria and partnerships with countries such as Iran or Egypt. The Baltic Sea would also become an area of expanded Russian interest, pressuring coastal countries and perhaps reducing NATO’s traditional local naval supremacy. However, it is worth noting that even with these regional expansions, Russia lacks a blue-water navy comparable to that of the USA; thus, its initial global maritime impact would be limited without alliances.
An important aspect of Mahan’s theories is that naval power serves as a counterbalance to the land power of the Heartland. Therefore, even if Russia were to dominate the Eurasian continental mass, the continued presence of American naval might on the oceans could prevent complete global domination by Moscow. However, if the USA voluntarily restricts its naval reach to the Americas, it would forgo influencing the power balance in the seas adjacent to Eurasia. Consequently, the balance of maritime power would tend to shift in favor of regional Eurasian actors. The United Kingdom and Japan, traditional allies of the USA, could intensify their naval capabilities to defend regional interests—the United Kingdom safeguarding the North Atlantic and the North Sea, and Japan patrolling the Northwest Pacific—but both would face budgetary and structural limitations in fully compensating for the absence of the American superpower. Consequently, Mahan’s vision suggests that the withdrawal of the USA from the extra-regional scene would weaken the liberal maritime regime, possibly opening space for revisionist powers to contest routes that were previously secured (for example, Russia and China encountering less opposition on the routes of the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific, respectively). In summary, naval hegemony would fragment, and control of strategic seas would become contested, reconfiguring the relative influence of the USA, Russia, and maritime allies such as the United Kingdom and Japan.
Kjellén and the State as a Living Organism: Russian Expansion as an Organic Necessity
Another useful theoretical lens to interpret Russian geopolitical posture is that of Rudolf Kjellén, a Swedish political scientist of the early twentieth century who conceived the State as a living organism. Kjellén, who even coined the term “geopolitics,” was influenced by Friedrich Ratzel’s ideas and by social Darwinism, arguing that States are born, grow, and decline analogously to living beings [13]. In his work Staten som livsform (The State as a Form of Life, 1916), he maintained that States possess an organic dimension in addition to the legal one and that “just as any form of life, States must expand or die” [14]. This expansion would not be motivated merely by aggressive conquest but seen as a necessary growth for the self-preservation of the state organism [14]. In complement, Kjellén echoed Ratzel’s “law of expanding spaces” by asserting that large States expand at the expense of smaller ones, with it being only a matter of time before the great realms fill the available spaces [14]. That is, from the organic perspective, vigorous States tend to incorporate smaller neighboring territories, consolidating territorially much like an organism absorbing nutrients.
Applying this theory to the strategy of contemporary Russia, we can interpret Moscow’s actions—including the invasion of Ukraine and the ambition to restore its sphere of influence in Eurasia—as the expression of an organic drive for expansion. For a strategist influenced by this school, Russia (viewed as a state organism with a long imperial history) needs to expand its territory and influence to ensure its survival and security. The loss of control over spaces that once were part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union (such as Ukraine itself, the Caucasus, or Central Asia) may be perceived by Russian elites as an atrophy of the state organism, rendering it vulnerable. Thus, the reincorporation of these territories—whether directly (annexation) or indirectly (political vassalage)—would equate to restoring lost members or strengthening vital organs of the state body. In fact, official Russian arguments often portray Ukraine as an intrinsic part of “Russian historicity,” denying it a fully separate identity—a narrative that aligns with the idea that Russian expansion in that region is natural and necessary for the Russian State (seen as encompassing also Russian speakers beyond its current borders).
Kjellén would thus provide a theoretical justification for Russian territorial expansion as an organic phenomenon. As a great power, Russia would inevitably seek to expand at the expense of smaller neighbors (Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic States, etc.), as dictated by the tendency of “great spaces to organize” to the detriment of the small [14]. This view can be identified in contemporary Russian doctrines that value spheres of influence and the notion that neighboring countries must gravitate around Moscow in order for the natural order to be maintained. The very idea of “Eurasia” united under Russian leadership (advocated by modern Russian thinkers) echoes this organic conception of vital space and expansion as a sign of the State’s vitality.
However, Kjellén’s theory also warns of the phenomenon of “imperial overstretch,” should a State exceed its internal cohesion limits by expanding excessively [14]. He recognized that extending borders too far could increase friction and vulnerabilities, making it difficult to maintain cohesion—a very large organism may lack functional integration. In the Russian context, this suggests that although expansion is seen as necessary, there are risks if Russia tries to encompass more than it can govern effectively. Conquering Ukraine and subjugating Eastern Europe, for example, could economically and militarily overburden the Russian State, especially if it faced resistance or had to manage hostile populations. However, in the hypothetical scenario we adopt (isolated USA and a weakened Europe), Russia might calculate that the organic benefits of expansion (territory, resources, strategic depth) would outweigh the costs, since external interference would be limited. Thus, through Kjellén’s lens, expansionist Russia behaves as an organism following its instinct for survival and growth, absorbing weaker neighbors; yet such a process is not devoid of challenges, requiring that the “organism Russia” manages to assimilate these new spaces without collapsing under its own weight.
Ratzel and Lebensraum: Resources, Territory, and the Justification for Expansion
Parallel to Kjellén’s organic view, Friedrich Ratzel’s theory offers another conceptual basis for understanding Russian expansion: the concept of Lebensraum (vital space). Ratzel, a German geographer of the late nineteenth century, proposed that the survival and development of a people or nation depended critically on the available physical space and resources. Influenced by Darwinist ideas, he applied the notion of “survival of the fittest” to nations, arguing that human societies need to conquer territory and resources to prosper, and that the stronger and fittest civilizations will naturally prevail over the weaker ones [12]. In 1901, Ratzel coined the term Lebensraum to describe this need for “vital space” as a geographical factor in national power [15].
Subsequently, this idea would be adopted—and extremely distorted—by Nazi ideology to justify Germany’s aggressions in Europe. However, the core of Ratzel’s concept is that territorial expansion is essential for the survival and growth of a State, especially to secure food, raw materials, and space for its population [12].
When examining Russia’s stance under this perspective, we can see several narratives that evoke the logic of Lebensraum. Russia is the largest country in the world by area; however, much of its territory is characterized by adverse climates (tundra, taiga) and is relatively sparsely populated in Siberia. On the other hand, adjacent regions such as Ukraine possess highly arable lands (chernozem—black soil), significant Slavic population density, and additional natural resources (coal in the Donbass, for example). An implicit justification for Russian expansion could be the search for supplementary resources and fertile lands to secure its self-sufficiency and power—exactly as Ratzel described that vigorous nations do. Historical records show that Ratzel emphasized agrarian primacy: he believed that new territories should be colonized by farmers, providing the food base for the nation [12]. Ukraine, historically called the “breadbasket of Europe,” fits perfectly into this vision of conquest for sustenance and agricultural wealth.
Furthermore, Ratzel viewed geography as a determinant of the destiny of nations—peoples adapted to certain habitats seek to expand them if they aspire to grow. In contemporary Russian discourse, there is often mention of the need to ensure security and territorial depth in the face of NATO, or to unite brotherly peoples (Russians and Russian speakers) within a single political space. Such arguments can be read as a modern translation of Lebensraum: the idea that the Russian nation, in order to be secure and flourish, must control a larger space, encompassing buffer zones and critical resources. This Russian “vital space” would naturally include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, given the historical and infrastructural interdependence. Ratzel emphasized that peoples migrated and expanded when their original homeland no longer met their needs or aspirations [12]. Although contemporary Russia does not suffer from demographic pressure (on the contrary, it faces population decline), under the logic of a great power there is indeed a sentiment of geopolitical insufficiency for having lost influence over areas considered strategic. Thus, reconquering these areas would mean recovering the “habitat” necessary for the Russian nation to prosper and feel secure.
It is important to mention that, in Ratzel’s and Kjellén’s formulations, the pursuit of Lebensraum or organic expansion is not morally qualified—it is treated as a natural process in the politics of power. Thus, on the discursive level, Russia can avoid overly aggressive rhetoric and resort to “natural” justifications: for example, claiming that it needs to occupy Ukraine for defensive purposes (security space) or to reunify peoples (a common cultural and historical space). Beneath these justifications, however, resonates the geopolitical imperative to acquire more territory and resources as a guarantee of national survival, something consonant with Ratzel’s theory. In fact, Russian Realpolitik frequently prioritizes the control of energy resources (gas, oil) and transportation routes. Expanding its influence over central Eurasia would also mean controlling oil pipelines, gas lines, and logistical corridors—essential elements of modern Lebensraum understood as access to vital resources and infrastructure.
In summary, by conquering Ukraine and extending its reach into Eurasia, Russia could effectively invoke the concept of Lebensraum: presenting its expansion not as mere imperialism, but as a necessity to secure indispensable lands and resources for its people and to correct the “injustice” of a vital space diminished by post-Cold War territorial losses. The theories of Ratzel and Kjellén together paint a picture in which Russian expansion emerges almost as a natural law—the great State reclaiming space to ensure its survival and development at the expense of smaller neighbors.
Trump, NATO, and the Threat of American Withdrawal
One of the most alarming changes with Trump's return to power is the tense relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump has long criticized allies for not meeting military spending targets, even threatening during his first term to withdraw the US from the alliance if members did not increase their contributions [2]. This threat, initially viewed with skepticism, became concrete after his re-election, leading European allies to seriously consider the possibility of having to defend themselves without American support [1]. In fact, Trump suggested in post-election interviews that the US would only remain in NATO if the allies “paid their bills” – otherwise, he “would seriously consider” leaving [2]. Such statements reinforced the warning that the US might not honor NATO's mutual defense commitment, precisely at a time of continuous Russian threat due to the war in Ukraine [1].
From a theoretical point of view, this posture of American retrenchment evokes the classic tension between maritime power and land power. Alfred Thayer Mahan emphasized that the global power of the US derived largely from its naval superiority and from alliances that ensured control over strategic maritime routes [9]. NATO, since 1949, has served not only to deter Soviet terrestrial advances in Eurasia, but also to secure the US naval presence in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean – a fundamental element according to Mahan. In turn, Halford Mackinder warned that the balance of global power depended on the control of the Eurasian “Heartland” (the central region of Eurasia). The withdrawal or disengagement of the US (a maritime power) from this region could open the way for a continental power (such as Russia) to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, unbalancing the power balance [3]. In other words, by threatening to leave NATO, Trump jeopardizes the principle of containment that prevented Russian dominance over Eastern Europe – something that Mackinder would see as a dangerous shift in global power in favor of the Heartland power.
Adopting an impartial tone, it is observed that European countries have reacted to this new reality with precautionary measures. Strategic reports already calculate the cost of an autonomous European defense: hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers and investments of hundreds of billions of euros would be required if the US ceased to guarantee the security of the continent [1]. European dependence on American military power is significant and, without it, there would be a need for a major reinforcement of European Armed Forces [1]. This mobilization practically reflects the anticipation of a power vacuum left by the US – a scenario in which Mackinder’s theory (on the primacy of the Heartland and the vulnerability of the “external crescent” where Western Europe is located) regains its relevance.
The US–Ukraine Economic Agreement: Strategic Minerals in Exchange for Support?
Another novelty of Trump's second term is the unprecedented and transactional manner in which Washington has been dealing with the war in Ukraine. Instead of emphasizing security guarantees and alliances, the Trump administration proposed a trade agreement with Ukraine focused on the exploitation of strategic minerals, linking American support to a direct economic benefit. According to sources close to the negotiations, the US and Ukraine are about to sign a pact to share the revenues from the exploitation of critical mineral resources on Ukrainian territory [19]. Materials such as titanium, lithium, rare earths, and uranium – vital for high-tech and defense industries – would be at the core of this agreement [6]. According to the known draft, Ukraine would allocate 50% of the profits from new mineral ventures to a fund controlled by the US, which would reinvest part of the resources in the country’s own reconstruction [6] [19].
It is noteworthy that the pact does not include explicit security guarantees for Kyiv, despite Ukraine remaining under direct military threat from Russia [19]. Essentially, the Trump administration offers financial support and economic investment in exchange for a share in Ukrainian natural resources, but without formally committing to Ukraine's defense in the event of a renewed Russian offensive [19]. American authorities argue that this economic partnership would already be sufficient to “secure Ukrainian interests,” as it would provide the US with its own incentives to desire Ukraine’s stability [19]. “What could be better for Ukraine than being in an economic partnership with the United States?” stated Mike Waltz, a US national security advisor, defending the proposal [19].
Analysts, however, assess the agreement in divided terms. For some, it represents a form of economic exploitation at a time of Ukraine's fragility – comparing the demand to share mineral wealth amid war to a scheme of “mafia protection” [19]. Steven Cook, from the Council on Foreign Relations, classified the offer as “extortion,” and political scientist Virginia P. Fortna observed that charging resources from an invaded country resembles predatory practices [19]. Joseph Nye adds that it is a short-term gain strategy that could be “disastrous in the long run” for American credibility, reflecting the transactional approach that Trump even adopted with close allies in other contexts [19]. On the other hand, some see a future advantage for Kyiv: journalist Pierre Briançon suggests that at least this agreement aligns American commercial interests with Ukraine’s future, which could, in theory, keep the US involved in Ukrainian prosperity in the long term [19]. It is even recalled that President Zelensky himself proposed last year the idea of sharing natural resources with the US to bring the interests of the two countries closer together [19].
From the perspective of geopolitical theories, this agreement illustrates a shift towards economic pragmatism in international relations, approaching concepts proposed by Kjellén. Rudolf Kjellén, who coined the term “geopolitics,” saw the State as a territorial organism that seeks to ensure its survival through self-sufficiency and the control of strategic resources [4]. Trump's demand for a share in Ukrainian resources in order to continue supporting the country reflects a logic of autarky and direct national interest – that is, foreign policy serving primarily to reinforce the economic and material position of the US. This view contrasts with the traditional cooperative approach, but aligns with Kjellén’s idea that powerful States tend to transform international relations into opportunities for their own gain, ensuring access to vital raw materials. Similarly, Friedrich Ratzel argued that States have a “propensity to expand their borders according to their capacities,” seeking vital space (Lebensraum) and resources to sustain their development [11]. The US–Ukraine pact, by conditioning military/economic aid on obtaining tangible advantages (half of the mineral profits), is reminiscent of Ratzel’s perspective: the US, as a rising economic power, expands its economic influence over Ukrainian territory like an organism extending itself to obtain the necessary resources for its well-being. It is, therefore, a form of economic expansionism at the expense of purely ideological commitments or collective security.
Peace Negotiations Excluding Ukraine and the Legitimacy of the Agreement
Another controversial point is the manner in which peace negotiations between Russia and the West have been conducted under Trump's administration. Since taking office, the American president has engaged directly with Moscow in pursuit of a ceasefire, deliberately keeping the Ukrainian government out of the initial discussions [6]. Trump expressed his desire to “leave Zelensky out of the conversation” and also excluded the European Union from any influence in the process [6]. This negotiation strategy—conducted without the presence of the primary interested party, Ukraine—raises serious questions about the legitimacy and sustainability of any resulting agreement.
Historically, peace agreements reached without the direct participation of one of the conflicting parties tend to face problems in implementation and acceptance.
The exclusion of Ukraine in the decision-making phase brings to light the issue of guarantees. As noted, the emerging agreement lacks formal US security guarantees for Ukraine. This implies that, after the agreement is signed, nothing will prevent Russia from launching a new offensive if it deems it convenient, knowing that the US has not committed to defending it militarily. Experts have already warned that a ceasefire without robust protection may only be a pause for Russian rearmament, rendering the conflict “frozen” temporarily and potentially resumed in the near future. The European strategic community has expressed similar concern: without American deterrence, the risk of further Russian aggressions in the region increases considerably [1]. Denmark, for example, has released intelligence reports warning of possible imminent Russian attacks, prompting neighboring countries to accelerate plans for independent defense [1].
The legitimacy of this asymmetric peace agreement (negotiated without Ukraine fully at the table and under economic coercion) is also questionable from a legal and moral point of view. It violates the principle of self-determination by imposing terms decided by great powers on a sovereign country—a practice reminiscent of dark chapters in diplomacy, such as the Munich Agreement of 1938, when powers determined the fate of Czechoslovakia without its consent. In the current case, Ukraine would end up signing the agreement, but from a position of weakness, raising doubts about how durable such a commitment would be.
From Mackinder’s perspective, Ukraine’s removal from the battlefield without guarantees essentially means admitting a greater influence of Russia (the Heartland power) over Eastern Europe. This would alter the balance in Eurasia in a potentially lasting way. Furthermore, the fact that great powers negotiate over the heads of a smaller country evokes the imperial logic of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when empires decided among themselves the divisions of foreign territories—a behavior that Mackinder saw as likely in a world of a “closed system.” With the entire world already occupied by States, Mackinder predicted that powers would begin to compete for influence within this consolidated board, often subjugating smaller states to gain advantage [3]. The US–Russia negotiation regarding Ukraine, without proper Ukrainian representation, exemplifies this type of neo-imperial dynamic in the twenty-first century.
Also noteworthy is the consonance with the ideas of Ratzel and Kjellén: both viewed smaller states as easily relegated to the status of satellites or even “parasitic organisms” in the orbit of larger states. Kjellén spoke of the intrinsic vulnerability of states with little territorial depth or economic dependence, making them susceptible to external pressures [4][20]. Ukraine, weakened by war and dependent on external aid, becomes a concrete example of this theorized vulnerability: it has had to cede strategic resources and accept terms dictated against its will in an attempt to secure its immediate survival. The resulting agreement, therefore, reflects a power imbalance characteristic of the hierarchical international relations described by classical geopolitical theorists.
Implicit Territorial Concessions and Trump’s Public Discourse
A central and controversial point in Trump’s statements regarding the war in Ukraine is the insinuation of territorial concessions to Russia as part of the conflict’s resolution. Publicly, Trump avoided explicitly condemning Russian aggression and even stated that he considered it “unlikely” that Ukraine would be able to retake all the areas occupied by the Russians [16]. In debates and interviews, he suggested that “if I were president, the war would end in 24 hours,” implying that he would force an understanding between Kyiv and Moscow that would likely involve ceding some territory in exchange for peace. This position marks a break with the previous US policy of not recognizing any territorial acquisitions made by force and fuels speculations that a future peace agreement sponsored by Trump would legitimize at least part of Russia’s gains since 2014 (Crimea, Donbass, and areas seized during the 2022 invasion).
The actions of his administration corroborate this interpretation. As discussed, the economic agreement focuses on the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources, many of which are located precisely in regions currently under Russian military control, such as parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk, Lugansk, and the Azov Sea area [6]. A Ukrainian geologist, Hanna Liventseva, highlighted that “most of these elements (strategic minerals) are found in the south of the Ukrainian Shield, mainly in the Azov region, and most of these territories are currently invaded by Russia” [6]. This means that, to make joint exploitation viable, Russia’s de facto control over these areas would have to be recognized—or at least tolerated—in the short term. In other words, the pact indirectly and tacitly accepts Russian territorial gains, as it involves sharing the profits from resources that are not currently accessible to the Kyiv government.
Furthermore, figures close to Trump have made explicit statements regarding the possibility of territorial cession. Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, publicly stated that Zelensky might need to “cede land to Russia” to end the war [8]. This remark—made public in March 2025—confirms that the Trump White House considers it natural for Ukraine to relinquish parts of its territory in favor of an agreement. Such a stance marks a break from the previous Western consensus, which condemned any territorial gains by force. Under Trump, a pragmatic view (in the eyes of his supporters) or a cynical one (according to his critics) seems to prevail: sacrificing principles of territorial integrity to quickly end hostilities and secure immediate economic benefits.
In theoretical terms, this inclination to validate territorial gains by force recalls the concept of Realpolitik and the geopolitical Darwinism that influenced thinkers such as Ratzel. In Ratzel’s organic conception, expanding states naturally absorb neighboring territories when they are strong enough to do so, while declining states lose territory—a process almost biological in the selection of the fittest [11]. The Trump administration’s acceptance that Ukraine should “give something” to Moscow to seal peace reflects a normalization of this geopolitical selection process: it recognizes the aggressor (Russia) as having the “right” to retain conquered lands, because that is how power realities on the ground dictate. Mackinder, although firmly opposed to allowing Russia to dominate the Heartland, would see this outcome as the logical consequence of the lack of engagement from maritime powers (the USA and the United Kingdom, for example) in sustaining the Ukrainian counterattack. Without the active involvement of maritime power to balance the dispute, land power prevails in Eastern Europe.
From the perspective of international legitimacy, the cession of Ukrainian territories—whether de jure or de facto—creates a dangerous precedent in the post-Cold War era. Rewarding violent aggression with territorial gains may encourage similar strategies in other parts of the world, undermining the architecture of collective security. This is possibly a return to a world of spheres of influence, where great powers define borders and zones of control according to their convenience—something that the rules-based order after 1945 sought to avoid. Here, academic impartiality requires noting that coercion for territorial concessions rarely produces lasting peace, as the aggrieved party—in this case, Ukraine—may accept temporarily but will continue to assert its rights in the long term, as has occurred with other territorial injustices in history.
Territorial Ambitions of Trump: Greenland and Canada
Beyond the Eurasian theater of war, Trump revived geopolitical ambitions involving territories traditionally allied with the US: Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark) and Canada. As early as 2019, during his first term, Trump shocked the world by proposing to buy Greenland—rich in minerals and strategically positioned in the Arctic. Upon his return to power, he went further: expressing a “renewed interest” in acquiring Greenland and publicly suggesting the incorporation of Canada as the 51st American state [2].
In January 2025, during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, he even displayed maps in which the US and Canada appeared merged into a single country, while Greenland was marked as a future American possession [2]. Posts by the president on social media included satirical images with a map of North America where Canada was labeled “51st” and Greenland designated as “Our Land” [2].
Such moves were met with concern and disbelief by allies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on an open microphone warning that Trump’s fixation on annexation “is real” and not just a joke [7]. Trudeau emphasized that Washington appeared to covet Canada’s vast mineral resources, which would explain the insistence on the idea of absorption [7]. In public, Trump argued that Canadians “would be more prosperous as American citizens,” promising tax cuts and better services should they become part of the US [7]. On the Danish side, the reaction to the revived plan regarding Greenland was firmly negative—as it was in 2019—reaffirming that the territory is not for sale. Trump, however, insinuated that the issue might be one of national security, indicating that American possession of Greenland would prevent adverse influences (a reference to China and Russia in the Arctic) [2]. More worryingly, he refused to rule out the use of military means to obtain the island, although he assured that he had no intention of invading Canada by force (in the Canadian case, he spoke of “economic force” to forge a union) [2].
This series of initiatives reflects an unprecedented expansionist impetus by the US in recent times, at least in discourse. Analyzing this through the lens of classical geopolitics offers interesting insights. Friedrich Ratzel and his notion of Lebensraum suggest that powerful states, upon reaching a certain predominance, seek to expand their territory by influencing or incorporating adjacent areas. Trump, by targeting the immediate neighbor (Canada) and a nearby strategic territory (Greenland), appears to resurrect this logic of territorial expansion for the sake of gaining space and resources. Ratzel saw such expansion almost as a natural process for vigorous states, comparable to the growth of an organism [11]. From this perspective, the US would be exercising its “right” of expansion in North America and the polar region, integrating areas of vital interest.
Additionally, Alfred Mahan’s view on maritime power helps to understand the strategic value of Greenland. Mahan postulated that control of key maritime chokepoints and naval bases ensures global advantage [9]. Greenland, situated between the North Atlantic and the Arctic, has become increasingly relevant as climate change opens new polar maritime routes and reveals vast mineral deposits (including rare earth elements and oil). For the US, having a presence or sovereignty over Greenland would mean dominating the gateway to the Arctic and denying this space to rivals. This aligns with Mahan’s strategy of securing commercial and military routes (in this case, potential Arctic routes) and resources to consolidate naval supremacy. On the other hand, the incorporation of Canada—with its enormous territory, Arctic coastline, and abundant natural resources—would provide the US with formidable geoeconomic and geopolitical reinforcement, practically eliminating vulnerabilities along its northern border. This is an ambitious project that also echoes ideas of Kjellén, for whom an ideal State should seek territorial completeness and economic self-sufficiency within its region. Incorporating Canada would be the pinnacle of American regional autarky, turning North America into a unified bloc under Washington (a scenario reminiscent of the “pan-regions” conceived by twentieth-century geopoliticians influenced by Kjellén).
It is important to note, however, that these ambitions face enormous legal and political obstacles. The sovereignty of Canada and Greenland (Denmark) is guaranteed by international law, and both peoples categorically reject the idea of annexation. Any hostile action by the US against these countries would shake alliances and the world order itself. Even so, the very fact that an American president suggests such possibilities already produces geopolitical effects: traditional partners begin to distrust Washington’s intentions, seek alternative alliances, and strengthen nationalist discourses of resistance. In summary, Trump’s expansionist intentions in Greenland and Canada rekindle old territorial issues and paradoxically place the US in the position of a revisionist power—a role once associated with empires in search of colonies.
Implications for Brazil and South America: A New Neocolonization?
In light of this geopolitical reconfiguration driven by Trump's USA—with a reordering of alliances and a possible partition of spheres of influence among great powers—the question arises: what is the impact on Brazil and the other countries of South America? Traditionally, Latin America has been under the aegis of the Monroe Doctrine (1823), which established non-interference by Europe in the region and, implicitly, the primacy of the USA in the Western Hemisphere. In the post–Cold War period, this influence translated more into political and economic leadership, without formal annexations or direct territorial domination. However, the current context points to a kind of “neocolonization” of the Global South, in which larger powers seek to control resources and peripheral governments in an indirect yet effective manner.
Mackinder’s theories can be used to illuminate this dynamic. As mentioned, Mackinder envisioned the twentieth-century world as a closed system, in which there were no longer any unknown lands to be colonized—hence, the powers would fight among themselves for control over already occupied regions [3]. He predicted that Africa and Latin America (then largely European colonies or semi-colonies) would continue as boards upon which the great powers would project their disputes, a form of neocolonialism. In the current scenario, we see the USA proposing exchanges of protection for resources (as in Ukraine) and even leaders of developing countries seeking similar agreements. A notable example: the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, praised the USA–Ukraine initiative and suggested an analogous agreement involving Congolese mineral wealth in exchange for US support against internal rebels (M23) [19]. In other words, African countries and possibly South American ones may enter into this logic of offering privileged access to resources (cobalt, lithium, food, biodiversity) in order to obtain security guarantees or investments. This represents a regression to the times when external powers dictated the directions of the South in exchange for promises of protection, characterizing a strategic neocolonialism.
For Brazil, in particular, this rearrangement generates both opportunities and risks. As a regional power with considerable diplomatic autonomy, Brazil has historically sought to balance relationships with the USA, Europe, China, and other actors, avoiding automatic alignments. However, in a world where Trump’s USA is actively redefining spheres of influence—possibly making deals with Russia that divide priorities (for example, Washington focusing on the Western Hemisphere and Moscow on the Eastern)—South America could once again be seen as an exclusive American sphere of influence. From this perspective, Washington could pressure South American countries to align with its directives, limiting partnerships with rivals (such as China) and seeking privileged access to strategic resources (such as the Amazon, fresh water, minerals, and agricultural commodities). Some indications are already emerging: Trump’s transactional approach mentioned by Nye included pressures on Canada and Mexico regarding border and trade issues, under the threat of commercial sanctions. It would not be unthinkable to adopt a hard line, for example, with regard to Brazilian environmental policies (linked to the Amazon) or Brazil’s relations with China, using tariffs or incentives as leverage—a sort of geopolitics of economic coercion.
On the other hand, Brazil and its neighbors could also attempt to take advantage of the Sino–North American competition. If the USA is distracted consolidating its hemispheric “hard power” hegemony (even with annexation fantasies in the north), powers such as China may advance their economic presence in South America through investments and trade (Belt and Road, infrastructure financing)—which is already happening. This would constitute an indirect neocolonial dispute in the South: Chinese loans and investments versus American demands and agreements, partly reminiscent of the nineteenth-century imperial competition (when the United Kingdom, USA, and others competed for Latin American markets and resources).
From a conceptual standpoint, Mackinder might classify South America as part of the “Outer Crescent” (external insular crescent)—peripheral to the great Eurasian “World-Island,” yet still crucial as a source of resources and a strategic position in the South Atlantic and Pacific. If the USA consolidates an informal empire in the Americas, it would be reinforcing its “insular bastion” far from the Eurasian Heartland, a strategy that Mackinder once suggested for maritime powers: to control islands and peripheral continents to compensate for the disadvantage of not controlling the Heartland. However, an excessive US dominance in the South could lead to local resistance and alternative alignments, unbalancing the region.
Kjellén would add that for Brazil to maintain its decisive sovereignty, it will need to strengthen its autarky and internal cohesion—in other words, reduce vulnerabilities (economic, military, social) that external powers might exploit [4]. Meanwhile, Mahan might point out the importance for Brazil of controlling its maritime routes and coastlines (South Atlantic) to avoid being at the mercy of a naval power like the USA. And Ratzel would remind us that states that do not expand their influence tend to be absorbed by foreign influences—which, in the context of Brazil, does not mean conquering neighboring territories, but rather actively leading South American integration to create a block more resilient to external intrusion.
In summary, South America finds itself in a more competitive and segmented world, where major players are resurrecting practices from past eras. The notion of “neocolonization” here does not imply direct occupation, but rather mechanisms of dependency: whether through unequal economic agreements or through diplomatic or military pressure for alignment. Brazil, as the largest economy and territory on the subcontinent, will have to navigate with heightened caution. A new global power balance, marked by the division of spheres of influence among the USA, China, and Russia, may reduce the sovereign maneuvering space of South American countries unless they act jointly. Thus, theoretical reflection suggests the need for South–South strategies, reinforcement of regional organizations, and diversification of partnerships to avoid falling into modern “neocolonial traps.”
Conclusion
The emerging post–re-election geopolitical conjuncture of Donald Trump signals a return to classical geopolitical principles, after several decades of predominance of institutional liberal views. We witness the revaluation of concepts such as spheres of influence, exchanges of protection for resources, naval power versus land power, and disputes over territory and raw materials—all central themes in the writings of Mackinder, Mahan, Kjellén, and Ratzel at the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century. An impartial analysis of these events, in light of these theories, shows internal coherence in Trump’s actions: although controversial, they follow a logic of maximizing national interest and the relative power of the USA on the world stage, even at the expense of established principles and alliances.
Halford Mackinder reminds us that, in a closed world with no new lands to conquer, the great powers will seek to redistribute the world among themselves [3]. This seems to manifest in the direct understandings between the USA and Russia over the fate of Ukraine, and in American ambitions in the Arctic and the Western Hemisphere. Alfred Mahan emphasizes that the control of the seas and strategic positions ensures supremacy—we see reflections of this in Trump’s obsession with Greenland (Arctic) and the possible neglect of the importance of maintaining NATO (and therefore the North Atlantic) as a cohesive bloc, something that Mahan’s theory would criticize due to the risk of a naval vacuum. Rudolf Kjellén and Friedrich Ratzel provide the framework to understand the more aggressive facet of expansionist nationalism: the idea of the State as an organism that needs to grow, secure resources, and seek self-sufficiency explains everything from the extortionate agreement imposed on Ukraine to the annexation rhetoric regarding Canada.
The potential consequences are profound. In the short term, we may witness a precarious ceasefire in the Ukraine war, with consolidated Russian territorial gains and Ukraine economically tied to the USA, but without formal military protection—a fragile “armed peace.” Western Europe, alarmed, may accelerate its independent militarization, perhaps marking the beginning of European defense autonomy, as is already openly debated [1]. At the far end of the globe, American activism in the Arctic and the Americas may reshape alliances: countries like Canada, once aligned with Washington, might seek to guarantee their sovereignty by distancing themselves from it; powers like China could take advantage of the openings to increase their presence in Latin America and Africa through economic diplomacy; and emerging countries of the Global South may have to choose between submitting to new “guardianships” or strengthening South–South cooperation.
Ultimately, the current situation reinforces the relevance of studying geopolitics through historical lenses. The actions of the Trump administration indicate that, despite all technological and normative advances, the competition for geographic power has not disappeared—it has merely assumed new formats. Academic impartiality obliges us not to prematurely judge whether these strategies will be successful or beneficial, but history and theory warn that neo-imperial movements tend to generate counter-reactions. As Mackinder insinuated, “every shock or change anywhere reverberates around the world,” and a sudden move by a superpower tends to provoke unforeseen adjustments and chain conflicts. It remains to be seen how the other actors—including Brazil and its neighbors—will adapt to this new chapter in the great struggle for global power, in which centuries-old theories once again have a surprising explanatory power over present events.
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2025-03-02 19:25:10Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic cryptocurrency reserve on March 2, 2025, wasn’t a surprise—he’s been the “crypto president” cheerleader for years. At 10:32 a.m. EST, he took to Truth Social with the details: the U.S. would hold onto seized digital assets, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum, while also roping in XRP, Solana, and Cardano. He later called Bitcoin and Ethereum the “core” of the plan. By 2:00 p.m. EST, the market was buzzing with price jumps, and while tucking Bitcoin into the reserve looks like a solid play, adding the others raises some serious questions.
Price Surge: The Early Reaction
Before Trump’s post, the market was coasting. Imagine Bitcoin at around $83,000 on March 1, Ethereum at $2,200, XRP at $2.15, Solana at $142, and Cardano at $0.64—standard fare for a slow weekend. By 2 p.m. EST, three-plus hours after the announcement, the reaction was clear. Early chatter had Bitcoin nearing $90,000, up about 8%, Ethereum at $2,400, a 9% bump, XRP hitting $2.80, a 30% surge, Solana climbing to $170, a 20% rise, and Cardano spiking to $1.00, up 56%. The numbers are still firming up, but the market loved the news—though not all of it makes sense.
Bitcoin: The Smart Bet
Trump’s been hyping crypto since 2024, promising to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” and Bitcoin fits that vision like a glove. The U.S. already holds about 200,000 Bitcoin from seizures—nearly $19 billion pre-spike—and keeping it as a strategic asset is a no-brainer. It’s the gold standard of crypto, with a proven track record and a market cap that dwarfs the rest. Adding it to the reserve could draw in big players like hedge funds or states like Pennsylvania, which is eyeing a 10% Bitcoin allocation. Songping Que of Neo Blockchain says it’s a “catalyst” that could push Bitcoin to $500,000. That’s a stretch, but it’s got legs—Bitcoin’s a hedge against inflation and a signal of economic strength. Plus, Trump’s push to ditch Biden-era regulations pairs perfectly with Bitcoin’s dominance. Fewer rules could spark blockchain growth, and Bitcoin’s the anchor to build around. It’s a strategic asset that could keep the U.S. ahead of rivals like China without overcomplicating things.
The Others: A Risky Overreach
But XRP, Solana, and Cardano? That’s where this plan stumbles. Sure, they popped—XRP’s 30% leap and Cardano’s 56% spike look impressive—but these aren’t Bitcoin. XRP’s tangled in legal baggage with the SEC, and its centralized roots don’t scream “strategic reserve material.” Solana’s fast, but it’s had outages—imagine the feds betting on a network that goes dark mid-crisis. Cardano’s got big ideas, but its adoption’s still lagging; it’s more hype than substance. Ethereum’s a closer call—its smart contracts have real utility—but it’s still second fiddle to Bitcoin and carries more complexity.
Including these feels like Trump’s trying to please the crypto crowd rather than picking winners. The reserve should be lean and focused—Bitcoin alone could do the job without muddying the waters with altcoins that might tank or fizzle. The price jumps are nice, but they’re more speculative frenzy than lasting value.
The Pushback
Critics have a point about volatility—Bitcoin’s dropped from $68,000 to $35,000 in months before, and altcoins are worse. Laith Khalaf of AJ Bell warns tying public funds to crypto’s rollercoaster is dicey. For Bitcoin, that risk feels manageable—its size and staying power offset the swings. For XRP, Solana, and Cardano? Not so much. Expanding beyond seized assets would need Congress anyway, and they’d likely balk at this grab-bag approach.
The Takeaway
By 2 p.m. EST on March 2, Trump’s crypto reserve announcement had the market roaring. Bitcoin in the mix is a masterstroke—it’s a proven asset that aligns with his economic vision and could bolster America’s financial edge. But tossing in XRP, Solana, and Cardano dilutes the plan, betting on shaky ground when Bitcoin alone could carry the day. Risks are part of the game, but Trump’s got a winner with Bitcoin—why clutter it up?