Embarking on the journey of operating your own Lightning node on the Bitcoin Layer 2 network is more than just a tech-savvy endeavor; it's a step into a realm of financial autonomy and cutting-edge innovation. By running a node, you become a vital part of a revolutionary movement that's reshaping how we think about money and digital transactions. This role not only offers a unique perspective on blockchain technology but also places you at the heart of a community dedicated to decentralization and network resilience. Beyond the technicalities, it's about embracing a new era of digital finance, where you contribute directly to the network's security, efficiency, and growth, all while gaining personal satisfaction and potentially lucrative rewards.

In essence, running your own Lightning node is a powerful way to engage with the forefront of blockchain technology, assert financial independence, and contribute to a more decentralized and efficient Bitcoin network. It's an adventure that offers both personal and communal benefits, from gaining in-depth tech knowledge to earning a place in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.

Running your own Lightning node for the Bitcoin Layer 2 network can be an empowering and beneficial endeavor. Here are 10 reasons why you might consider taking on this task:

1. Direct Contribution to Decentralization: Operating a node is a direct action towards decentralizing the Bitcoin network, crucial for its security and resistance to control or censorship by any single entity.

2. Financial Autonomy: Owning a node gives you complete control over your financial transactions on the network, free from reliance on third-party services, which can be subject to fees, restrictions, or outages.

3. Advanced Network Participation: As a node operator, you're not just a passive participant but an active player in shaping the network, influencing its efficiency and scalability through direct involvement.

4. Potential for Higher Revenue: With strategic management and optimal channel funding, your node can become a preferred route for transactions, potentially increasing the routing fees you can earn.

5. Cutting-Edge Technological Engagement: Running a node puts you at the forefront of blockchain and bitcoin technology, offering insights into future developments and innovations.

6. Strengthened Network Security: Each new node adds to the robustness of the Bitcoin network, making it more resilient against attacks and failures, thus contributing to the overall security of the ecosystem.

7. Personalized Fee Structures: You have the flexibility to set your own fee policies, which can balance earning potential with the service you provide to the network.

8. Empowerment Through Knowledge: The process of setting up and managing a node provides deep learning opportunities, empowering you with knowledge that can be applied in various areas of blockchain and fintech.

9. Boosting Transaction Capacity: By running a node, you help to increase the overall capacity of the Lightning Network, enabling more transactions to be processed quickly and at lower costs.

10. Community Leadership and Reputation: As an active node operator, you gain recognition within the Bitcoin community, which can lead to collaborative opportunities and a position of thought leadership in the space.

These reasons demonstrate the impactful and transformative nature of running a Lightning node, appealing to those who are deeply invested in the principles of bitcoin and wish to actively shape its future. Jump aboard, and embrace the journey toward full independence. 🐶🐾🫡🚀🚀🚀

Chef's notes

Serving these two dishes together will create a delightful centerpiece for your Thanksgiving meal, offering a perfect blend of traditional flavors with a homemade touch.

Details

• ⏲️ Prep time: 30 min
• 🍳 Cook time: 1 - 2 hours
• 🍽️ Servings: 4-6

Ingredients

• 1 whole turkey (about 12-14 lbs), thawed and ready to cook
• 1 cup unsalted butter, softened
• 2 tablespoons fresh thyme, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh rosemary, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh sage, chopped
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper
• 1 onion, quartered
• 1 lemon, halved
• 2-3 cloves of garlic
• Apple and Sage Stuffing
• 1 loaf of crusty bread, cut into cubes
• 2 apples, cored and chopped
• 1 onion, diced
• 2 stalks celery, diced
• 3 cloves garlic, minced
• 1/4 cup fresh sage, chopped
• 1/2 cup unsalted butter
• 2 cups chicken broth
• Salt and pepper, to taste

Directions

1. Preheat the Oven: Set your oven to 325°F (165°C).
2. Prepare the Herb Butter: Mix the softened butter with the chopped thyme, rosemary, and sage. Season with salt and pepper.
3. Prepare the Turkey: Remove any giblets from the turkey and pat it dry. Loosen the skin and spread a generous amount of herb butter under and over the skin.
4. Add Aromatics: Inside the turkey cavity, place the quartered onion, lemon halves, and garlic cloves.
5. Roast: Place the turkey in a roasting pan. Tent with aluminum foil and roast. A general guideline is about 15 minutes per pound, or until the internal temperature reaches 165°F (74°C) at the thickest part of the thigh.
6. Rest and Serve: Let the turkey rest for at least 20 minutes before carving.
7. Next: Apple and Sage Stuffing
8. Dry the Bread: Spread the bread cubes on a baking sheet and let them dry overnight, or toast them in the oven.
9. Cook the Vegetables: In a large skillet, melt the butter and cook the onion, celery, and garlic until soft.
10. Combine Ingredients: Add the apples, sage, and bread cubes to the skillet. Stir in the chicken broth until the mixture is moist. Season with salt and pepper.
11. Bake: Transfer the stuffing to a baking dish and bake at 350°F (175°C) for about 30-40 minutes, until golden brown on top.

Testing a brand new YakiHonne native client for iOS. Smooth as butter (not penis butter 🤣🍆🧈) with great visual experience and intuitive navigation. Amazing work by the team behind it! * lists * work

Bold text work!

Images could have used nostr.build instead of raw S3 from us-east-1 region.

Very impressive! You can even save the draft and continue later, before posting the long-form note!

🐶🐾🤯🤯🤯🫂💜

As the title states, scratch behind my ear and you get it. 🐶🐾🫡

Test Bounty Note

Intro

This short tutorial will help you set up your own Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) on your own LND Node that is not using Umbrel. If you are a user of Umbrel, you should use their version of NWC.

Requirements

You need to have a working installation of LND with established channels and connectivity to the internet. NWC in itself is fairly light and will not consume a lot of resources. You will also want to ensure that you have a working installation of Docker, since we will use a docker image to run NWC.

• Working installation of LND (and all of its required components)
• Docker (with Docker compose)

Installation

For the purpose of this tutorial, we will assume that you have your lnd/bitcoind running under user bitcoin with home directory /home/bitcoin. We will also assume that you already have a running installation of Docker (or docker.io).

Prepare and verify

git version - we will need git to get the latest version of NWC. docker version - should execute successfully and show the currently installed version of Docker. docker compose version - same as before, but the version will be different. ss -tupln | grep 10009- should produce the following output: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 0.0.0.0:10009 0.0.0.0: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 [::]:10009 [::]:**

For things to work correctly, your Docker should be version 20.10.0 or later. If you have an older version, consider installing a new one using instructions here: https://docs.docker.com/engine/install/

Create folders & download NWC

In the home directory of your LND/bitcoind user, create a new folder, e.g., "nwc" mkdir /home/bitcoin/nwc. Change to that directory cd /home/bitcoin/nwc and clone the NWC repository: git clone https://github.com/getAlby/nostr-wallet-connect.git

Creating the Docker image

In this step, we will create a Docker image that you will use to run NWC.

• Change directory to nostr-wallet-connect: cd nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• The last line of the output (after a few minutes) should look like => => naming to docker.io/library/nwc:latest
• nwc:latest is the name of the Docker image with a tag which you should note for use later.

Creating docker-compose.yml and necessary data directories

• Let's create a directory that will hold your non-volatile data (DB): mkdir data
• Indocker-compose.ymlfile, there are fields that you want to replace (<> comments) and port “4321” that you want to make sure is open (check with ss -tupln | grep 4321which should return nothing).
• Create docker-compose.ymlfile with the following content, and make sure to update fields that have <> comment:

version: "3.8" services: nwc: image: nwc:latest volumes: - ./data:/data - ~/.lnd:/lnd:ro ports: - "4321:8080" extra_hosts: - "localhost:host-gateway" environment: NOSTR_PRIVKEY: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate a fresh key and place it inside ""> LN_BACKEND_TYPE: "LND" LND_ADDRESS: localhost:10009 LND_CERT_FILE: "/lnd/tls.cert" LND_MACAROON_FILE: "/lnd/data/chain/bitcoin/mainnet/admin.macaroon" DATABASE_URI: "/data/nostr-wallet-connect.db" COOKIE_SECRET: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate fresh secret and place it inside ""> PORT: 8080 restart: always stop_grace_period: 1m

Starting and testing

Now that you have everything ready, it is time to start the container and test.

• While you are in the nwcdirectory (important), execute the following command and check the log output, docker compose up
• You should see container logs while it is starting, and it should not exit if everything went well.
• At this point, you should be able to go to http://<ip of the host where nwc is running>:4321 and get to the interface of NWC
• To stop the test run of NWC, simply press Ctrl-C , and it will shut the container down.
• To start NWC permanently, you should execute docker compose up -d , “-d” tells Docker to detach from the session.
• To check currently running NWC logs, execute docker compose logs to run it in tail mode add -f to the end.
• To stop the container, execute docker compose down

That's all, just follow the instructions in the web interface to get started.

Updating

As with any software, you should expect fixes and updates that you would need to perform periodically. You could automate this, but it falls outside of the scope of this tutorial. Since we already have all of the necessary configuration in place, the update execution is fairly simple.

• Change directory to the clone of the git repository, cd /home/bitcoin/nwc/nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• Change directory back one level cd ..
• Restart (stop and start) the docker compose config docker compose down && docker compose up -d
• Done! Optionally you may want to check the logs: docker compose logs

Objavte, ako avatari a pseudonymné identity ovplyvňujú riadenie kryptokomunít a decentralizovaných organizácií (DAOs). V tejto prednáške sa zameriame na praktické fungovanie decentralizovaného rozhodovania, vytváranie a správu avatarových profilov, a ich rolu v online reputačných systémoch. Naučíte sa, ako si vytvoriť efektívny pseudonymný profil, zapojiť sa do rôznych krypto projektov a využiť svoje aktivity na zarábanie kryptomien. Preskúmame aj príklady úspešných projektov a stratégie, ktoré vám pomôžu zorientovať sa a uspieť v dynamickom svete decentralizovaných komunít.

|Portuguse|English| |---|---| |Quando eu era mais novo me diziam| When I was younger they told me| |que eu não batia muito bem da minha mente| I didn't hit my mind very well| |Me chama de louco ou de delinquente| Call me crazy or delinquent| |Mas é o flow que te deixa inconsciente| But it's the flow that makes you unconscious| |Toma hit, de repente| Take hit, all of a sudden| |Faz o drink, brinda com a gente| Drink, toast with us| ||| |E os moleque tá vivendo uma vida inconsequente| And the kids are living an inconsequent life| |Viajando pro fundo do futuro subconsciente| Traveling deep into the subconscious future| |Foi por causa dela que eu entrei na cena| It was because of her that I got into the scene| |Foi por ela mesmo que eu saí da cena| It's for herself that I left the scene| |Se eu tô em silêncio, quem ama é o sistema| If I'm silent, who loves is the system| |E sabe que eu sou moleque-problema, vai| And you know I'm a problem girl, go| ||| |Toma lá, toma cá| Here, here.| |Tenta vim pra trocar| Try to change.| |Se eu tiver sonhando, não precisa me acordar| If I'm dreaming, you don't have to wake me up| |Tô vendo meu passado no presente| I've seen my past in the present| |E o presente no futuro| And the present in the future| |E o futuro pisando no ar| And the future stepping on the air| ||| |O que tinha no meu copo, eu tô querendo saber?| What was in my glass, I'm trying to know?| |Elas querem meu corpo e eu querendo prazer| They want my body and I want pleasure| |Tô em todo lugar, não dá pra controlar| You're everywhere, you can't control|

Yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster. I started by diving into my digital past. Using Google Takeout, I extracted my photos and organized them into date-specific folders. It was a nostalgic trip down memory lane. After spending more time than expected organizing my digital life, I decided to take a break and grab a simple lunch at a local eatery. It's always interesting to experience the local vibe and enjoy affordable meals.

On my way back, I decided to finally get a SIM card. Much to my surprise, the price had doubled compared to just a few weeks ago. Is this the infamous "Mzungu" price? The price difference is making me reconsider my network provider. I might switch to avoid potential overcharges, but I haven't made a decision yet.

The eye problem, which has been bothering me for two days, put a damper on my plans for a relaxing video session at the evening. It was painful and blurry, so I opted for some soothing music instead.

Today, I started with a cold shower, hoping to alleviate the eye discomfort. It helped a bit, but the irritation persists. I suspect an infection and might need to visit a pharmacy. Given it's Sunday, I'm unsure about pharmacy hours and potential extra charges.

While I wait for my eye to improve, I've resumed downloading photos from Google and giving my public travel photo gallery another shot. Monetization through platforms is something I'm exploring seriously. The world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies has opened up new possibilities for generating income while traveling. Starting my journey in March 2017, I had no idea how to sustain myself financially while traveling. Generating income was a big question mark. Thanks to the people who've shared their knowledge, I've come a long way.

Speaking of travel, the weather here at the foot of Kilimanjaro is surprisingly chilly and cloudy. Who would have thought I'd need a fleece jacket in Africa? Google insists it's 27 degrees Celsius, but my body disagrees.

To add to my tech adventures, I installed the Ungoogled Chromium browser today. It's an interesting concept, but I'm still undecided about making the switch from Firefox. The world of open-source software has evolved significantly since my last deep dive, and I'm slowly rediscovering my way around. After years of using a Chromebook, I decided to switch back to Linux. I picked up a used ThinkPad and installed Fedora on it.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the best Linux desktop environment – Gnome or KDE Plasma? And if you have any insights on platforms for generating income, please share them in the comments.

That's all for now. I'll keep you updated on my eye situation and my tech explorations. Until next time!

Unsure what photo to include, I decided to snap a quick shot of my workspace for today

Online

Profile Page | Support Page

Feel free to support me by sending some sats via the lightning network to rubenstorm@sats.mobi

“Nothing is so painful to the human mind as a great and sudden change.” — Mary Shelley

Things are getting very interesting.

If you've managed to watch any of the Nashville Bitcoin conferences it would be very difficult not to be feeling incredibly bullish right now. Are we hitting the 'suddenly' stage of the 'gradually, then suddenly' saying? The political interest of Bitcoin in the US is miles ahead of where the UK is, but we do seem to follow them here for better or worse (mostly worse). Will we see a future Keir Starmer at a UK Bitcoin conference begging for your vote with promises of greater state adoption?

The truth is we don't need government approval, we're doing just fine without them. In fact we are doing fine despite their continued opposition. And why wouldn't they oppose Bitcoin, after all, 'turkeys don't vote for Christmas'. I have a feeling Christmas is just around the corner.

Upcoming Bitcoin Meetups

Happening this week...

1. Gloucestershire Bitcoin: This months meetup focuses on those new to Bitcoin and will introduce local businesses to the future of digital payments. Click the link for more details and to book a free ticket. Tuesday 30th 18:30.
2. Canterbury Bitcoin: Meeting this month at the Millers Arms in Canterbury at 7 PM on Tuesday the 30th of July. An informal meetup to discuss Bitcoin and chat.
3. Leamington Spa: Meetups on the last Tuesday of each month at 7 PM. You'll find them this month at the White Horse, CV32 5PZ on the 30th.
4. BitDevs - London: London BitDevs is a community of Bitcoin enthusiasts and professionals interested in discussing and participating in the research and development of Bitcoin and related protocols. Socratic seminars in Westminster, London. Doors open at 6:45 PM. This month on the 31st. More info here.
5. Brighton Bitcoin: Building a bitcoin community in the Brighton & Hove area. A regular informal meetup happens every last Wednesday of the month. This month on the 31st.
6. Berkshire Bitcoiners: Berkshire Bitcoiner's next meetup is on Thursday 1st August at 7.00 pm, at The Volunteer, Church St, Theale, Reading RG7 5BX. Feedback on the recent film night showing of Dirty Coin, and discussion of a plan to screen God Bless Bitcoin—also some feedback from Nashville.
7. Lincolnshire Bitcoin: Lincolnshire Bitcoin meets on the first Thursday of each month at 7:30 PM in the Treaty of Commerce, Lincoln, LN5 7AF. Open to all, from OG's to newcomers.
8. Bitcoin Walk - Edinburgh**: Every Saturday they walk around Arthur's Seat in this historic city. Join them at 12 pm to chat about all things Bitcoin and keep fit.
9. Leeds Bitcoin Network: The first Sunday of every month the Leeds Bitcoin Network meet at the Global Tribe Cafe, LS1 6LG at 1 PM.

New Businesses Accepting Bitcoin

Two new businesses are now set up and ready to go in Tooting Market and loads more to come there.

• Greek Mama's Bakery: Hand-made artisan greek pies. Baked fresh to order, perfect finger food for parties, or ideal for a nutritious and wholesome weeknight meal. Now available for bitcoin at Tooting Market
• Get Juiced!: A super-popular juice bar and vegan cafe, serving cold pressed juices, vegan food and vegan cakes.Find them on Instagram here and right in the center of Tooting Market.

Upcoming Special Events

• Tooting Market Bitcoin Event: Get your tickets now for this free event. The lineup is looking good with some great talks throughout the evening and plenty of merchants now accepting bitcoin. Guest speakers included Ray Youssef, Jordan Walker, Nicholas Gregory, Hashley Giles, Bridge2Bitcoin and many more. It all starts at 6 PM on the 7th August.
• Bitcoin - The change you've been waiting for: Mark your calendars for August 31 at 10:30 am for "The Change You’ve Been Waiting For" at Glasgow University Union. This seminar, costing £10, focuses on Bitcoin's transformative potential. With Bitcoin impacting individuals and businesses globally, understanding it is crucial. Guest speaker Allen Farrington will share his expertise, making this event perfect for both seasoned investors and the Bitcoin-curious. Don't miss this opportunity to explore how Bitcoin can shape your financial future.

Get Involved

• Volunteer Opportunities: Bridge2Bitcoin is actively seeking volunteers who share our passion for merchant adoption. We'd be delighted to connect if you're eager to contribute. Reach out to us on Twitter or through our website.
• Start Your Own Meetup: Interested in launching a Bitcoin meetup? We’re here to support you every step of the way. We’ve assisted numerous UK Bitcoin meetups in getting started. Get in touch via Twitter.
• Telegram users: You might find our Telegram Channel another useful way to keep up-to-date with UK meetups.
• Feedback and Suggestions: We value your input! Please share your ideas on how we can enhance this newsletter.

Consider subscribing on Substack HERE

Get out and support the meetups where you can and stay tuned for more updates next week!

Simon.

Jan Kolčák pochádza zo stredného Slovenska a vystupuje pod umeleckým menom Deepologic. Hudbe sa venuje už viac než 10 rokov. Začínal ako DJ, ktorý s obľubou mixoval klubovú hudbu v štýloch deep-tech a afrohouse. Stále ho ťahalo tvoriť vlastnú hudbu, a preto sa začal vzdelávať v oblasti tvorby elektronickej hudby. Nakoniec vydal svoje prvé EP s názvom "Rezonancie". Učenie je pre neho celoživotný proces, a preto sa neustále zdokonaľuje v oblasti zvuku a kompozície, aby jeho skladby boli kvalitné na posluch aj v klube.

V roku 2023 si založil vlastnú značku EarsDeep Records, kde dáva príležitosť začínajúcim producentom. Jeho značku podporujú aj etablované mená slovenskej alternatívnej elektronickej scény. Jeho prioritou je sloboda a neškatulkovanie. Ako sa hovorí v jednej klasickej deephouseovej skladbe: "We are all equal in the house of deep." So slobodou ide ruka v ruke aj láska k novým technológiám, Bitcoinu a schopnosť udržať si v digitálnom svete prehľad, odstup a anonymitu.

V súčasnosti ďalej produkuje vlastnú hudbu, venuje sa DJingu a vedie podcast, kde zverejňuje svoje mixované sety. Na Lunarpunk festivale bude hrať DJ set tvorený vlastnou produkciou, ale aj skladby, ktoré sú blízke jeho srdcu.

Podcast Bandcamp Punk Nostr website alebo nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wvfskuep0qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3xamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvhsz9thwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjme0qyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnddakj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7qpqguvns4ld8k2f3sugel055w7eq8zeewq7mp6w2stpnt6j75z60z3swy7h05

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, stated during a hearing in March that the central bank has no plans to introduce a central bank digital currency (CBDCs) or consider it necessary at present. He said this even though the material Fed staff presents to Congress suggests otherwise - that CBDCs are described as one of the Fed’s key duties .

A CBDC is a state-controlled and programmable currency that could allow the government or its intermediaries the possibility to monitor all transactions in detail and also to block payments based on certain conditions.

Critics argue that the introduction of CBDCs could undermine citizens’ constitutionally guaranteed freedoms and rights . Republican House Majority Leader Tom Emmer, the sponsor of a bill aimed at preventing the central bank from unilaterally introducing a CBDC, believes that if they do not mimic cash, they would only serve as a “CCP-style [Chinese Communist Party] surveillance tool” and could “undermine the American way of life”. Emmer’s proposed bill has garnered support from several US senators , including Republican Ted Cruz from Texas, who introduced the bill to the Senate. Similarly to how Swedish cash advocates risk missing the mark , Tom Emmer and the US senators risk the same outcome with their bill. If the central bank is prevented from introducing a central bank digital currency, nothing would stop major banks from implementing similar systems themselves, with similar consequences for citizens.

Indeed, the entity controlling your money becomes less significant once it is no longer you. Even if central bank digital currencies are halted in the US, a future administration could easily outsource financial censorship to the private banking system, similar to how the Biden administration is perceived by many to have circumvented the First Amendment by getting private companies to enforce censorship. A federal court in New Orleans ruled last fall against the Biden administration for compelling social media platforms to censor content. The Supreme Court has now begun hearing the case.

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader who played a vital role in China’s modernization, once said, “It does not matter if the cat is black or white. What matters is that it catches mice.” This statement reflected a pragmatic approach to economic policy, focusing on results foremost. China’s economic growth during his tenure was historic.

The discussion surrounding CBDCs and their negative impact on citizens’ freedoms and rights would benefit from a more practical and comprehensive perspective. Ultimately, it is the outcomes that matter above all. So too for our freedoms.

In the world of interior design, modern sofas have become a staple for creating chic and comfortable living spaces. With sleek lines, innovative designs, and a focus on both aesthetics and functionality, modern sofas have evolved to meet the needs of today's homeowners seeking a perfect balance between style and comfort.

Sleek Designs for Every Taste

Modern sofas come in a variety of designs to suit different tastes and preferences. From minimalist Scandinavian-inspired pieces to bold and luxurious statement sofas, there is a modern sofa to complement any interior style. Clean lines, geometric shapes, and a mix of materials like leather, velvet, and fabric are common features of modern sofa designs, adding a touch of sophistication to any room.

Functionality Meets Comfort

One of the key characteristics of modern sofas is their focus on functionality and comfort without compromising on style. Many modern sofas are designed with features like adjustable headrests, reclining mechanisms, built-in storage, and convertible options to maximize comfort and usability. Whether you're looking for a cozy spot to relax or a versatile piece of furniture for entertaining guests, modern sofas offer a perfect blend of style and functionality.

Customization and Personalization

Another trend in modern sofa design is the emphasis on customization and personalization. Many furniture manufacturers and retailers offer a wide range of options for customizing modern sofas, including choice of fabric, color, size, and configuration. This allows homeowners to create a sofa that fits their specific needs and reflects their personal style, making it a unique focal point in their living space.

Durability and Sustainability

In addition to style and comfort, modern sofas are also designed with durability and sustainability in mind. High-quality materials, sturdy construction, and eco-friendly practices are key considerations in the production of modern sofas, ensuring that they not only look good but also stand the test of time. Sustainable materials like FSC-certified wood, recycled fabrics, and non-toxic finishes are increasingly being used in the manufacturing of modern sofas, reflecting a growing awareness of environmental responsibility in the furniture industry.

Modern sofas have become more than just a piece of furniture – they are a reflection of contemporary design trends, lifestyle preferences, and individual personalities. With their sleek designs, functional features, customization options, and commitment to sustainability, modern sofas continue to be a popular choice for homeowners looking to elevate their living spaces with style and comfort. Whether you prefer a classic mid-century modern sofa or a cutting-edge modular design, there is a modern sofa out there to suit your taste and transform your home into a stylish haven of relaxation and sophistication.

27 มกราคม 2017 เป็นวันเกิดลูกชายของผม และเป็นวันที่ครอบครัวของผมย้ายเข้ามาอาศัยบ้านหลังแรกที่ซื้อ เพื่อลงหลักปักฐานที่จังหวัดนนทบุรี บ้านหลังนี้เป็น “หนี้ธนาคาร” ก้อนแรกในชีวิตของผม ถ้าผมไม่คิดมาก ลำพังรายได้จากงานประจำของผมก็เพียงพอกับการผ่อนธนาคารและได้บ้านเป็นของตัวเอง เพียงแต่ต้องใช้ระยะเวลาประมาณ 20 ปี ผมมีความคิดไม่อยากเป็นหนี้นานขนาดนั้น เลยมองหาโอกาสในการสร้างรายได้ทางอื่นๆนอกจากงานประจำ เหตุการณ์นี้เป็นจุดเริ่มต้นของผมในการศึกษาหาความรู้ใหม่ๆเรื่องการเงินครับ

“เป็นหนี้(บ้าน) ทำให้มีไฟในการหารายได้เพิ่มนั่นเอง”

ผมมีโอกาสได้ศึกษาวิชาการลงทุนในตลาดหุ้น , การเทรดเก็งกำไรสินค้าต่างๆของต่างประเทศ , กองทุนรวม + ตราสารหนี้ รวมถึงบิตคอยน์และเหรียญคริปโตอื่นๆ ใช้เวลาหลายปีกว่าจะเข้าใจและอยู่รอดได้ แต่ก็ยังไม่ประสบความสำเร็จตามเป้าหมาย

ในช่วงปีนั้นเป็นช่วงเวลาที่มีการสร้างคอนโดตามแนวรถไฟฟ้า BTS บริเวณพญาไท สุขุมวิทย์จำนวนมาก มีการซื้อขายกันอย่างคึกคักทำให้หลายๆคนประสบความสำเร็จในการลงทุนอสังหา ขณะเดียวกันรถไฟฟ้าสายสีม่วงในจังหวัดนนทบุรีได้เปิดใช้เป็นทางการ เป็นเส้นทางรถไฟฟ้าสายแรกที่เชื่อมจังหวัดนนทบุรีเข้ากับกรุงเทพ มีคอนโดสร้างใหม่ตลอดแนวรถไฟฟ้าสายสีม่วงเป็นจำนวนมาก ดึงดูดนักลงทุนในแวดวงอสังหาอยู่ไม่น้อย

“รีบซื้อคอนโดตามแนวรถไฟฟ้าสายสีม่วงจังหวัดนนทบุรี จะได้สำเร็จเหมือนการครอบครองคอนโดตามแนว BTS ในกรุงเทพ ” หรือ “ซื้อคอนโดจังหวัดนนทบุรี ใกล้แหล่งงาน เดินทางเข้าออกตัวเมืองสะดวก รวดเร็ว”

แต่ความจริงจังหวัดนนทบุรี มีระบบขนส่งสาธารณะที่ครอบคลุมมากเพียงพออยู่แล้ว ได้แก่

รถเมล์รถประจำทาง รถสองแถว พี่วินมอเตอร์ไซค์ เรือด่วนแม่น้ำเจ้าพระยา

การขนส่งสาธารณะในจังหวัดนนทบุรี ครอบคลุม สะดวกสบาย ดีอยู่แล้ว

การเดินทางภายในตัวนนทบุรีก็ดี การเดินทางไป-กลับกรุงเทพก็ดี มันไม่ได้ยากขนาดนั้น ค่าเดินทางก็ถูกกว่าการขึ้นรถไฟฟ้ามากอยู่ ผมได้แต่คิดว่าคอนโดที่สร้างใหม่เหล่านี้มันจำเป็นจริงๆหรือเปล่า จะมีความต้องการในการซื้อ (demand) มากตามการคาดการณ์จริงหรือเปล่า เป็นการลงทุนที่คุ้มค่าจริงหรือเปล่า ในวันนี้ที่ผมกำลังเขียนบทความคือเดือนสิงหาคมปี 2024 ผมคิดว่าใครที่ติดตามข่าวสารการลงทุนและแวดวงอสังหาริมทรัพย์ก็คงจะทราบดีว่าความจริงเป็นยังไง

มุมมองของผมต่อการลงทุนอสังหาริมทรัพย์

จากที่ผมศึกษาด้วยตัวเอง การลงทุนอสังหาฯ สามารถแบ่งได้หลักๆ 2 แบบคือ

ซื้อขายเก็งกำไร (Flip) ตรงตัวเลยครับ เป็นการเก็งกำไรมูลค่าในอนาคต ซื้อวันนี้ขายวันหน้า เพื่อหวังกำไรส่วนต่าง (capital gain)

ซื้อและถือระยะยาว (Hold) เป็นการซื้อแล้วถือเก็บไว้ แล้วทำให้มันสร้างค่าเช่ารายเดือนเป็นกระแสเงินสด

สาย hold เป็นการลงทุนที่ปลอดภัยกว่า ผลตอบแทนไม่ได้โลดโผน ไม่ได้ตื่นเต้นมาก แต่มันมีข้อดีคือสามารถสร้างผลตอบแทนนิ่งๆได้ในทุกสภาวะเศรษฐกิจ ที่อยู่อาศัยเป็นหนึ่งในปัจจัยสี่ที่มนุษย์ต้องมี ยกเว้นเสียแต่ว่ามนุษย์จะย้ายไปอาศัยอยู่ในถ้ำหรือบนต้นไม้ อันนั้นอีกเรื่องนึง

แต่อุปสรรคที่สำคัญของการเข้ามาสู่วงการอสังหาที่หลายๆคนทราบกันดีก็คือต้องมีทุนที่มากพอ เริ่มต้นหลักล้านในครอบครองคอนโดซักห้องนึง ถ้าหากว่าไม่ได้มีเงินสดมากพอก็ต้องยอมเป็นหนี้ธนาคารในการกู้ ตอนนั้นเองสถานการณ์ครอบครัวของผมยังไม่ได้วางแผนเผื่อการเอาตัวเข้าไปในวงการนี้ ผมเข้าใจดีว่ามันเป็นลงทุนที่น่าสนใจ เพียงแต่ “มันยังไม่ใช่สำหรับเรา ในตอนนั้น”

แต่ทำความเข้าใจก่อนนะครับ คำว่าอสังหาริมทรัพย์ มันไม่ได้หมายถึงคอนโดอย่างเดียว มันยังมีอย่างอื่นอีกได้แก่

อาคารชุด (คอนโด) - ตึกแถว - ทาวโฮม - บ้านเดี่ยว - อาคารพานิชย์ - ที่ดิน - โกดังสินค้า - อพาร์ตเม้นท์ ห้องเช่า - โรงแรม - รีสอร์ท

อสังหาริมทรัพย์ = ทรัพย์สินที่เดินไปไหนไม่ได้ เอาติดตัวไปด้วยไม่ได้

วิกฤตครอบครัว และ การได้เป็นเจ้าของคอนโดห้องแรก

จากที่ผมเกริ่นไว้ตอนแรก “เป็นหนี้(บ้าน) ทำให้มีไฟในการหารายได้เพิ่ม” มันเกิดดาบสองคมที่หันมาฆ่าผมเอง ผมเก็งกำไรในตลาด futures แล้วพอร์ตระเบิด มูลค่าความเสียหายประมาณ 1,500,000 บาทครับ

มันเกิดจาก “กับดักของเทรดเดอร์หน้าใหม่” ที่คิดว่าตัวเองเข้าใจการเทรดแล้ว อ่านตลาดออกแล้ว นั่นเองครับ มาลองดูนะครับว่ามันเหมือนกระสบการณ์ของเพื่อนๆมั้ย

เรียนการเทรดเอง คิดว่าเข้าใจแล้ว แล้วก็ไปไม่รอด

ผมศึกษาจาก Youtube ครับ ดูคลิปไป 3–4 คลิป ก็เข้าใจว่า “ตัวเองเข้าใจแล้ว” ง่ายแค่นี้เอง แต่พอไปเทรดเอง เจอของจริงหน้างาน กลับขาดทุน

ตามหาระบบเทพในการเทรด

ไปหาตามเวบบอร์ดทั้งไทย ทั้งของต่างชาติ ทั้งระบบฟรีและเสียตังค์ ไปลองมาหมดครับ แล้วก็ขาดทุน

ไปซื้อคอร์สเรียน

ทั้งเรียนออนไลน์และเรียนตัวต่อตัวกับครูผู้เชี่ยวชาญในวิธีการของเขา ผมไปเรียนคอร์สตัวต่อตัวกับครูสองท่าน ปัจจุบันนี้ครูทั้งสองท่านทำกำไรได้สม่ำเสมอจนลาออกจากงานประจำมาเลี้ยงชีพเลี้ยงครอบครัว ส่งลูกเรียนโรงเรียนนานาชาติได้จากรายได้จากการเทรด มันฟังดูยิ่งใหญ่และน่าชื่นชมมาก แต่ด้วยวิธีการเทรดและเงื่อนไขทางด้านเวลาของผม ทำให้ไม่สามารถทำเหมือนครู่ทั้งสองท่านได้ ก็ขาดทุนครับ แต่ขาดทุนไม่มาก เพราะเป็นการเทรดที่ทำตามระบบ

จ้างโปรแกรมเมอร์เขียนบอทเทรด แต่ไม่รอบคอบ

ความรู้ที่ผมได้จากครูท่านแรก มันคือการสร้างระบบเทรดและทดสอบย้อนหลังด้วยตัวเอง (systematic and back test) เป็นการเทรดที่มีเงื่อนไขการเข้าและออกออเดอร์ชัดเจน แต่ว่ามันต้องเฝ้าจอใน timeframe 15 นาที มันทำให้ชีวิตผมไม่อันเป็นทำอะไรครับ เวลาไปเดินห้างซื้อของกับครอบครัว พอมีเสียง alert เตือนว่าถึงจุดเฝ้าระวังในการเปิดออเดอร์ ผมต้องขอเวลาครอบครัว หาที่นั่งแปปนึงแล้วบริหารจัดการการเทรด บางครั้ง alert ดังตอนกำลังขับรถ ผมก็ต้องเอามือข้างนึงมาจัดการการเทรด โชคดีที่เป็นช่วงรถติดแถวๆปิ่นเกล้า เลยรอดจากอุบัติเหตุ ผมมองว่ามันไม่เวิคละ เลยว่าจ้างฟรีแลนซ์จาก “fastwork” ของคุณ “ซีเค เจิง”ในการ code บอทเทรดให้ครับ มันทำงานได้ดีมาก แต่พี่ฟรีแลนซ์ท่านนั้นก็เตือนผมด้วยความหวังดีว่า

“อย่าพึ่ง” เอาไปลองกับบัญชีจริงนะ ไปลองในเดโม่ก่อน เอาให้แน่ใจก่อน เพราะเงื่อนไขการเทรดระบบของผมมันสุดยอดแห่งความซับซ้อนเลย

พี่เขากลัวว่าจะเขียนโค้ดผิดซักที่นึง ผมก็ลองบอทในบัญชีเดโม่อยู่ 1–2 สัปดาห์แล้วเห็นว่ามันใช้ได้ ก็เลยเอามาเปิดในบัญชีจริงครับ นี่คือข้อผิดพลาดอย่างนึงของผมก็คือ ในช่วงเวลาที่ทดสอบกับบัญชีเดโม่ มันชนะตลอด ไม่มีช่วงแพ้

อธิบายแบบนี้ครับ ระบบเทรดของผมเป็นการเทรดแบบ grid ระยะในการวิ่งของราคาที่จะปิดออเดอร์ไม่ว่าจะเป็น take profit หรือ stop loss มันแคบมาก มันเทรดไปประมาณ 10 ครั้ง มันจะแพ้ 1–2 ครั้ง แต่เวลาแพ้ครั้งนึงมูลค่าความเสียหายคือ ขาดทุน 15%

ไม่มีอะไรได้มาฟรีๆครับ ระบบเทรดที่อัตราชนะสูงถึง 90–95% เวลาเจอ 5–10% ที่เป็นการแพ้ แพ้ทีนึงจุก ครูผมเรียกว่า “inverted martingale” แต่มันแก้ด้วยการ money management ดีๆ

วันที่เกิดเรื่องผ่านไป 3 เดือนหลังจากเริ่มให้บิททำงานเทรดบนบัญชีจริง แล้วเจอวันที่มันแพ้พอดี วันนั้นบอทมันไม่ได้ stop loss แต่ปล่อยให้การขาดทุนไหลยาวไปเรื่อยๆ พอผมมาดูพบว่าพอร์ตมูลค่าเกือบๆหนึ่งล้านบาท ขาดทุนอยู่ 50–60% ผมเลยโทรปรึกษาพี่ที่เขียนบอทให้ ปรากฏว่ามันมีโค้ดที่ผิดพลาดในคำสั่ง stop loss ครับ สุดท้ายพอร์ตก็เสียหายหนัก

เอาเงินไปลงในเวบพนัน

ในเมื่อการเทรดเองมันยาก ไปลองหาช่องทางลัดก็แล้วกัน ชนิดที่ว่ารีบเข้ารีบออก ลุกช้าจ่ายรอบวง ผลลัพธ์คือขาดทุนครับ

เหตุการณ์ทั้งหมดนี้เกิดขึ้นในปี 2017–2018

ผลที่ตามมาก็คือบ้านแตก ภรรยาผมโมโหที่ผมทำอะไรไม่บอกและโมโหที่ผมแบกรับทุกอย่างไว้คนเดียวไม่ให้เขาเข้ามาช่วย ไม่ได้โกรธที่เทรดขาดทุน ภรรยาผมบอกว่าหากอยู่บ้านเดียวกันต่อไปมีความเป็นไปได้มากที่เขาจะขอหย่ากับผม (ก็เขาเคืองผมมาก) มีช่วงนึงที่เขาพาลูกไปเที่ยวไปค้างที่ต่างจังหวัด ตัดขาดการติดต่อกับผม เพื่อพักสมองพักความคิด จนสุดท้ายก็กลับมาคุยกัน แต่แก้วที่มันร้าวไปแล้วการคุยมันไม่ได้ราบรื่นหรอกครับ ภรรยาผมให้แยกกันอยู่คนละบ้าน ผมยอมรับข้อเสนอนี้ด้วยเหตุผลว่าให้สองแม่ลูกอยู่เป็นหลักแหล่งที่บ้าน ให้ทั้งคู่มีความปลอดภัย ส่วนผมออกไปตะลอนๆคนเดียวได้ไม่เป็นไร เพราะผมก่อเรื่องไว้ ก้มหน้าก้มตายอมรับผิดในสิ่งที่ตัวเองทำไป มันดีแล้ว

แต่ก็แปลกนะครับ กลายเป็นว่าสองคนสามีภรรยานั่งดูกันว่าจะหาห้องเช่าให้ผมอยู่ใกล้ๆที่ทำงาน มันจะได้ไม่ต้องเหนื่อยกับการเดินทางมาก พอจะรู้ราคาค่าเช่าบ้างแล้ว แต่ก็พบว่าบริเวณใกล้เคียงก็มีคอนโดที่พึ่งสร้างเสร็จ ราคาเช่าก็ไม่ได้ต่างจากห้องเช่ามาก เลยพากันเข้าไปดูครับ

“ตั้งใจว่าจะไปหาห้องคอนโดเช่า แต่ดันได้เป็นเจ้าของกรรมสิทธิ์คอนโดซะเอง”

คอนโดหลังนี้คือโครงการ Zeen condo อยู่ซอยงามวงศ์วาน 31 ห้องที่ผมได้ครอบครองเป็นห้องชั้น 6 ห้องริมที่หันหลังเข้าซอยชุมชนดั้งเดิม ไม่มีตึกสูงบังวิว ลมพัดเข้าทั้งวัน เงียบ ขนาด 28.xx ตารางเมตร เป็นห้องที่หลุดมาจากผู้ยื่นกู้ซื้อ 2 ท่านก่อนหน้านี้

ส่วนกระบวนการการคิดการตัดสินใจ กู้เพิ่มภาระหนี้ ตอนนั้นผมและภรรยาคิดอะไรอยู่ เดี๋ยวมาเล่าให้ฟังต่อตอนต่อไปนะครับ

II. Quantity, Quality, Morality

In the Brave New World of my fantasy eugenics and dysgenics were practiced systematically. In one set of bottles biologically superior ova, fertilized by biologically superior sperm, were given the best possible prenatal treatment and were finally decanted as Betas, Alphas and even Alpha Pluses. In another, much more numerous set of bottles, biologically inferior ova, fertilized by biologically inferior sperm, were subjected to the Bokanovsky Process (ninety-six identical twins out of a single egg) and treated prenatally with alcohol and other protein poisons. The creatures finally decanted were almost subhuman; but they were capable of performing unskilled work and, when properly conditioned, detensioned by free and frequent access to the opposite sex, constantly distracted by gratuitous entertainment and reinforced in their good behavior patterns by daily doses of soma, could be counted on to give no trouble to their superiors.

In this second half of the twentieth century we do nothing systematic about our breeding; but in our random and unregulated way we are not only over-populating our planet, we are also, it would seem, making sure that these greater numbers shall be of biologically poorer quality. In the bad old days children with considerable, or even with slight, hereditary defects rarely survived. Today, thanks to sanitation, modern pharmacology and the social conscience, most of the children born with hereditary defects reach maturity and multiply their kind. Under the conditions now prevailing, every advance in medicine will tend to be offset by a corresponding advance in the survival rate of individuals cursed by some genetic insufficiency. In spite of new wonder drugs and better treatment (indeed, in a certain sense, precisely because of these things), the physical health of the general population will show no improvement, and may even deteriorate. And along with a decline of average healthiness there may well go a decline in average intelligence. Indeed, some competent authorities are convinced that such a decline has already taken place and is continuing. "Under conditions that are both soft and unregulated," writes Dr. W. H. Sheldon, "our best stock tends to be outbred by stock that is inferior to it in every respect. . . . It is the fashion in some academic circles to assure students that the alarm over differential birthrates is unfounded; that these problems are merely economic, or merely educational, or merely religious, or merely cultural or something of the sort. This is Pollyanna optimism. Reproductive delinquency is biological and basic." And he adds that "nobody knows just how far the average IQ in this country [the U.S.A.] has declined since 1916, when Terman attempted to standardize the meaning of IQ 100."

In an underdeveloped and over-populated country, where four-fifths of the people get less than two thousand calories a day and one-fifth enjoys an adequate diet, can democratic institutions arise spontaneously? Or if they should be imposed from outside or from above, can they possibly survive?

And now let us consider the case of the rich, industrialized and democratic society, in which, owing to the random but effective practice of dysgenics, IQ's and physical vigor are on the decline. For how long can such a society maintain its traditions of individual liberty and democratic government? Fifty or a hundred years from now our children will learn the answer to this question.

Meanwhile we find ourselves confronted by a most disturbing moral problem. We know that the pursuit of good ends does not justify the employment of bad means. But what about those situations, now of such frequent occurrence, in which good means have end results which turn out to be bad?

For example, we go to a tropical island and with the aid of DDT we stamp out malaria and, in two or three years, save hundreds of thousands of lives. This is obviously good. But the hundreds of thousands of human beings thus saved, and the millions whom they beget and bring to birth, cannot be adequately clothed, housed, educated or even fed out of the island's available resources. Quick death by malaria has been abolished; but life made miserable by undernourishment and over-crowding is now the rule, and slow death by outright starvation threatens ever greater numbers.

And what about the congenitally insufficient organisms, whom our medicine and our social services now preserve so that they may propagate their kind? To help the unfortunate is obviously good. But the wholesale transmission to our descendants of the results of unfavorable mutations, and the progressive contamination of the genetic pool from which the members of our species will have to draw, are no less obviously bad. We are on the horns of an ethical dilemma, and to find the middle way will require all our intelligence and all our good will.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/624998

Hello Nostr-verse,

I have now fiddled so much with the photos and table, so, enjoy the photos!

https://cdn.satellite.earth/b24577e9162d7a313f703bef22b169f33945b9314d70561c953f01e96011776a.jpg

The first set of photos shows the progress from a nice, ripe and bubbly sourdough starter to mixing the dough and putting it in the fridge for overnight cool proofing.

| | | | --- | --- | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/b505474eeadfc64e1874162ac57dab05b8ba0926c0361442b0c462887af21026.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/6d7c8faac003a3937e0dc35ef2ee1d230e1e3e781e5fa6aae9dbc9e58140f30e.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/7ac5dbc578074c0ab101fdb45c4e9ea158da060aaac7bfe09071ed9cdae58de6.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/40429d73a05dfe7437656d6d26ab12ce506b1d519732a65302f1c6a07df384da.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/b594cf669967bf944f94e23112f4518318752574f2264a2c7a121cf03de46313.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/4d4fc89a986b25bb8bcb135fae8c5358aaaf3b34affbbc79bc44722bcf60aeb6.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/9a25fde6fb761a52ca7d669f2a26b6c95536fcf01c5e22eeeff05a611af8fe60.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/af9d0f9a48e6d3e76c33a88ce4cefd87125a26bd9e2f1ec1f01ae40fe9cdc611.jpg |

You can see quite nicely how the dough kept on developing overnight. I knew last night that I didn't want to make bread otherwise I would have shaped a bread loaf and stored it in a banneton overnight. This time I was going to make

Breadlings

a.k.a. rolls or dinner rolls. There wasn't much shaping involved, none actually. I took the dough out of the bowl, put it on a floured surface and divided it into 12 (?) differently shaped little dough pieces.

I placed them on a baking paper into my Dutch oven and baked each batch for about 30 - 35 minutes, 10 minutes on high heat and the remaining time on moderate heat.

| | | | --- | --- | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/b786ddc52895468ee47d59cca7a8bb0361a4cac1a59d06721232264edd510eb0.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/0ef42689e0b0b5647abbd5111cabb69a40b4d47c23b443cb51a2f89b80c61b04.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/184c7dc2e23ec939ebbc7f6d11d80acf3789af9fe58ce4485c1d7069d9e52bdc.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/1f5df9aa5be31bb80c2ac61185db3f9b755b5d0baa51c477e8ae9ac533d40db5.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/4617bea30796b81fddc1ecde6a354bd975c0e1628c6de54f0792ba2b88c62ffb.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/ec0aa6496b521285ccf0c206e9e8776980922518e1789796f267388c31f83845.jpg | | https://cdn.satellite.earth/8ac7a1cb4b621c803ef42bb98d9d7c079f5723a632d9be6b105c048db44e123a.jpg | https://cdn.satellite.earth/9287253cd388f00b3083e713695c7de86a7e8ec2cdb4271db39da8b9da003740.jpg |

Then they had to cool down before, finally, two of them found their way onto our breakfast table and into our tummies.

The verdict:

Awesome! They were slightly crusty on the outside, chewy but airy on the inside - perfect!

https://cdn.satellite.earth/d239a280f8a23fe6d68657201d5000da074b963d1f9eba423f50f9337416bb67.jpg

Happy Weekend! OceanBee

The first is about how to ace your Y Combinator interview. There has been so much nonsense written about this topic that I've been meaning for years to write something telling founders the truth.

The second is about something politicians sometimes say — that the only way to become a billionaire is by exploiting people — and why this is mistaken.

Keep reading, and you'll learn both simultaneously.

I know the politicians are mistaken because it was my job to predict which people will become billionaires. I think I can truthfully say that I know as much about how to do this as anyone. If the key to becoming a billionaire — the defining feature of billionaires — was to exploit people, then I, as a professional billionaire scout, would surely realize this and look for people who would be good at it, just as an NFL scout looks for speed in wide receivers.

But aptitude for exploiting people is not what Y Combinator looks for at all. In fact, it's the opposite of what they look for. I'll tell you what they do look for, by explaining how to convince Y Combinator to fund you, and you can see for yourself.

What YC looks for, above all, is founders who understand some group of users and can make what they want. This is so important that it's YC's motto: "Make something people want."

A big company can to some extent force unsuitable products on unwilling customers, but a startup doesn't have the power to do that. A startup must sing for its supper, by making things that genuinely delight its customers. Otherwise it will never get off the ground.

Here's where things get difficult, both for you as a founder and for the YC partners trying to decide whether to fund you. In a market economy, it's hard to make something people want that they don't already have. That's the great thing about market economies. If other people both knew about this need and were able to satisfy it, they already would be, and there would be no room for your startup.

Which means the conversation during your YC interview will have to be about something new: either a new need, or a new way to satisfy one. And not just new, but uncertain. If it were certain that the need existed and that you could satisfy it, that certainty would be reflected in large and rapidly growing revenues, and you wouldn't be seeking seed funding.

So the YC partners have to guess both whether you've discovered a real need, and whether you'll be able to satisfy it. That's what they are, at least in this part of their job: professional guessers. They have 1001 heuristics for doing this, and I'm not going to tell you all of them, but I'm happy to tell you the most important ones, because these can't be faked; the only way to "hack" them would be to do what you should be doing anyway as a founder.

The first thing the partners will try to figure out, usually, is whether what you're making will ever be something a lot of people want. It doesn't have to be something a lot of people want now. The product and the market will both evolve, and will influence each other's evolution. But in the end there has to be something with a huge market. That's what the partners will be trying to figure out: is there a path to a huge market? [1]

Sometimes it's obvious there will be a huge market. If Boom manages to ship an airliner at all, international airlines will have to buy it. But usually it's not obvious. Usually the path to a huge market is by growing a small market. This idea is important enough that it's worth coining a phrase for, so let's call one of these small but growable markets a "larval market."

The perfect example of a larval market might be Apple's market when they were founded in 1976. In 1976, not many people wanted their own computer. But more and more started to want one, till now every 10 year old on the planet wants a computer (but calls it a "phone").

The ideal combination is the group of founders who are "living in the future" in the sense of being at the leading edge of some kind of change, and who are building something they themselves want. Most super-successful startups are of this type. Steve Wozniak wanted a computer. Mark Zuckerberg wanted to engage online with his college friends. Larry and Sergey wanted to find things on the web. All these founders were building things they and their peers wanted, and the fact that they were at the leading edge of change meant that more people would want these things in the future.

But although the ideal larval market is oneself and one's peers, that's not the only kind. A larval market might also be regional, for example. You build something to serve one location, and then expand to others.

The crucial feature of the initial market is that it exist. That may seem like an obvious point, but the lack of it is the biggest flaw in most startup ideas. There have to be some people who want what you're building right now, and want it so urgently that they're willing to use it, bugs and all, even though you're a small company they've never heard of. There don't have to be many, but there have to be some. As long as you have some users, there are straightforward ways to get more: build new features they want, seek out more people like them, get them to refer you to their friends, and so on. But these techniques all require some initial seed group of users.

So this is one thing the YC partners will almost certainly dig into during your interview. Who are your first users going to be, and how do you know they want this? If I had to decide whether to fund startups based on a single question, it would be "How do you know people want this?"

The most convincing answer is "Because we and our friends want it." It's even better when this is followed by the news that you've already built a prototype, and even though it's very crude, your friends are using it, and it's spreading by word of mouth. If you can say that and you're not lying, the partners will switch from default no to default yes. Meaning you're in unless there's some other disqualifying flaw.

That is a hard standard to meet, though. Airbnb didn't meet it. They had the first part. They had made something they themselves wanted. But it wasn't spreading. So don't feel bad if you don't hit this gold standard of convincingness. If Airbnb didn't hit it, it must be too high.

In practice, the YC partners will be satisfied if they feel that you have a deep understanding of your users' needs. And the Airbnbs did have that. They were able to tell us all about what motivated hosts and guests. They knew from first-hand experience, because they'd been the first hosts. We couldn't ask them a question they didn't know the answer to. We ourselves were not very excited about the idea as users, but we knew this didn't prove anything, because there were lots of successful startups we hadn't been excited about as users. We were able to say to ourselves "They seem to know what they're talking about. Maybe they're onto something. It's not growing yet, but maybe they can figure out how to make it grow during YC." Which they did, about three weeks into the batch.

The best thing you can do in a YC interview is to teach the partners about your users. So if you want to prepare for your interview, one of the best ways to do it is to go talk to your users and find out exactly what they're thinking. Which is what you should be doing anyway.

This may sound strangely credulous, but the YC partners want to rely on the founders to tell them about the market. Think about how VCs typically judge the potential market for an idea. They're not ordinarily domain experts themselves, so they forward the idea to someone who is, and ask for their opinion. YC doesn't have time to do this, but if the YC partners can convince themselves that the founders both (a) know what they're talking about and (b) aren't lying, they don't need outside domain experts. They can use the founders themselves as domain experts when evaluating their own idea.

This is why YC interviews aren't pitches. To give as many founders as possible a chance to get funded, we made interviews as short as we could: 10 minutes. That is not enough time for the partners to figure out, through the indirect evidence in a pitch, whether you know what you're talking about and aren't lying. They need to dig in and ask you questions. There's not enough time for sequential access. They need random access. [2]

The worst advice I ever heard about how to succeed in a YC interview is that you should take control of the interview and make sure to deliver the message you want to. In other words, turn the interview into a pitch. ⟨elaborate expletive⟩. It is so annoying when people try to do that. You ask them a question, and instead of answering it, they deliver some obviously prefabricated blob of pitch. It eats up 10 minutes really fast.

There is no one who can give you accurate advice about what to do in a YC interview except a current or former YC partner. People who've merely been interviewed, even successfully, have no idea of this, but interviews take all sorts of different forms depending on what the partners want to know about most. Sometimes they're all about the founders, other times they're all about the idea. Sometimes some very narrow aspect of the idea. Founders sometimes walk away from interviews complaining that they didn't get to explain their idea completely. True, but they explained enough.

Since a YC interview consists of questions, the way to do it well is to answer them well. Part of that is answering them candidly. The partners don't expect you to know everything. But if you don't know the answer to a question, don't try to bullshit your way out of it. The partners, like most experienced investors, are professional bullshit detectors, and you are (hopefully) an amateur bullshitter. And if you try to bullshit them and fail, they may not even tell you that you failed. So it's better to be honest than to try to sell them. If you don't know the answer to a question, say you don't, and tell them how you'd go about finding it, or tell them the answer to some related question.

If you're asked, for example, what could go wrong, the worst possible answer is "nothing." Instead of convincing them that your idea is bullet-proof, this will convince them that you're a fool or a liar. Far better to go into gruesome detail. That's what experts do when you ask what could go wrong. The partners know that your idea is risky. That's what a good bet looks like at this stage: a tiny probability of a huge outcome.

Ditto if they ask about competitors. Competitors are rarely what kills startups. Poor execution does. But you should know who your competitors are, and tell the YC partners candidly what your relative strengths and weaknesses are. Because the YC partners know that competitors don't kill startups, they won't hold competitors against you too much. They will, however, hold it against you if you seem either to be unaware of competitors, or to be minimizing the threat they pose. They may not be sure whether you're clueless or lying, but they don't need to be.

The partners don't expect your idea to be perfect. This is seed investing. At this stage, all they can expect are promising hypotheses. But they do expect you to be thoughtful and honest. So if trying to make your idea seem perfect causes you to come off as glib or clueless, you've sacrificed something you needed for something you didn't.

If the partners are sufficiently convinced that there's a path to a big market, the next question is whether you'll be able to find it. That in turn depends on three things: the general qualities of the founders, their specific expertise in this domain, and the relationship between them. How determined are the founders? Are they good at building things? Are they resilient enough to keep going when things go wrong? How strong is their friendship?

Though the Airbnbs only did ok in the idea department, they did spectacularly well in this department. The story of how they'd funded themselves by making Obama- and McCain-themed breakfast cereal was the single most important factor in our decision to fund them. They didn't realize it at the time, but what seemed to them an irrelevant story was in fact fabulously good evidence of their qualities as founders. It showed they were resourceful and determined, and could work together.

It wasn't just the cereal story that showed that, though. The whole interview showed that they cared. They weren't doing this just for the money, or because startups were cool. The reason they were working so hard on this company was because it was their project. They had discovered an interesting new idea, and they just couldn't let it go.

Mundane as it sounds, that's the most powerful motivator of all, not just in startups, but in most ambitious undertakings: to be genuinely interested in what you're building. This is what really drives billionaires, or at least the ones who become billionaires from starting companies. The company is their project.

One thing few people realize about billionaires is that all of them could have stopped sooner. They could have gotten acquired, or found someone else to run the company. Many founders do. The ones who become really rich are the ones who keep working. And what makes them keep working is not just money. What keeps them working is the same thing that keeps anyone else working when they could stop if they wanted to: that there's nothing else they'd rather do.

That, not exploiting people, is the defining quality of people who become billionaires from starting companies. So that's what YC looks for in founders: authenticity. People's motives for starting startups are usually mixed. They're usually doing it from some combination of the desire to make money, the desire to seem cool, genuine interest in the problem, and unwillingness to work for someone else. The last two are more powerful motivators than the first two. It's ok for founders to want to make money or to seem cool. Most do. But if the founders seem like they're doing it just to make money or just to seem cool, they're not likely to succeed on a big scale. The founders who are doing it for the money will take the first sufficiently large acquisition offer, and the ones who are doing it to seem cool will rapidly discover that there are much less painful ways of seeming cool. [3]

Y Combinator certainly sees founders whose m.o. is to exploit people. YC is a magnet for them, because they want the YC brand. But when the YC partners detect someone like that, they reject them. If bad people made good founders, the YC partners would face a moral dilemma. Fortunately they don't, because bad people make bad founders. This exploitative type of founder is not going to succeed on a large scale, and in fact probably won't even succeed on a small one, because they're always going to be taking shortcuts. They see YC itself as a shortcut.

Their exploitation usually begins with their own cofounders, which is disastrous, since the cofounders' relationship is the foundation of the company. Then it moves on to the users, which is also disastrous, because the sort of early adopters a successful startup wants as its initial users are the hardest to fool. The best this kind of founder can hope for is to keep the edifice of deception tottering along until some acquirer can be tricked into buying it. But that kind of acquisition is never very big. [4]

If professional billionaire scouts know that exploiting people is not the skill to look for, why do some politicians think this is the defining quality of billionaires?

I think they start from the feeling that it's wrong that one person could have so much more money than another. It's understandable where that feeling comes from. It's in our DNA, and even in the DNA of other species.

If they limited themselves to saying that it made them feel bad when one person had so much more money than other people, who would disagree? It makes me feel bad too, and I think people who make a lot of money have a moral obligation to use it for the common good. The mistake they make is to jump from feeling bad that some people are much richer than others to the conclusion that there's no legitimate way to make a very large amount of money. Now we're getting into statements that are not only falsifiable, but false.

There are certainly some people who become rich by doing bad things. But there are also plenty of people who behave badly and don't make that much from it. There is no correlation — in fact, probably an inverse correlation — between how badly you behave and how much money you make.

The greatest danger of this nonsense may not even be that it sends policy astray, but that it misleads ambitious people. Can you imagine a better way to destroy social mobility than by telling poor kids that the way to get rich is by exploiting people, while the rich kids know, from having watched the preceding generation do it, how it's really done?

I'll tell you how it's really done, so you can at least tell your own kids the truth. It's all about users. The most reliable way to become a billionaire is to start a company that grows fast, and the way to grow fast is to make what users want. Newly started startups have no choice but to delight users, or they'll never even get rolling. But this never stops being the lodestar, and bigger companies take their eye off it at their peril. Stop delighting users, and eventually someone else will.

Users are what the partners want to know about in YC interviews, and what I want to know about when I talk to founders that we funded ten years ago and who are billionaires now. What do users want? What new things could you build for them? Founders who've become billionaires are always eager to talk about that topic. That's how they became billionaires.

The first is about how to ace your Y Combinator interview. There has been so much nonsense written about this topic that I've been meaning for years to write something telling founders the truth.

The second is about something politicians sometimes say — that the only way to become a billionaire is by exploiting people — and why this is mistaken.

Keep reading, and you'll learn both simultaneously.

I know the politicians are mistaken because it was my job to predict which people will become billionaires. I think I can truthfully say that I know as much about how to do this as anyone. If the key to becoming a billionaire — the defining feature of billionaires — was to exploit people, then I, as a professional billionaire scout, would surely realize this and look for people who would be good at it, just as an NFL scout looks for speed in wide receivers.

But aptitude for exploiting people is not what Y Combinator looks for at all. In fact, it's the opposite of what they look for. I'll tell you what they do look for, by explaining how to convince Y Combinator to fund you, and you can see for yourself.

What YC looks for, above all, is founders who understand some group of users and can make what they want. This is so important that it's YC's motto: "Make something people want."

A big company can to some extent force unsuitable products on unwilling customers, but a startup doesn't have the power to do that. A startup must sing for its supper, by making things that genuinely delight its customers. Otherwise it will never get off the ground.

Here's where things get difficult, both for you as a founder and for the YC partners trying to decide whether to fund you. In a market economy, it's hard to make something people want that they don't already have. That's the great thing about market economies. If other people both knew about this need and were able to satisfy it, they already would be, and there would be no room for your startup.

Which means the conversation during your YC interview will have to be about something new: either a new need, or a new way to satisfy one. And not just new, but uncertain. If it were certain that the need existed and that you could satisfy it, that certainty would be reflected in large and rapidly growing revenues, and you wouldn't be seeking seed funding.

So the YC partners have to guess both whether you've discovered a real need, and whether you'll be able to satisfy it. That's what they are, at least in this part of their job: professional guessers. They have 1001 heuristics for doing this, and I'm not going to tell you all of them, but I'm happy to tell you the most important ones, because these can't be faked; the only way to "hack" them would be to do what you should be doing anyway as a founder.

The first thing the partners will try to figure out, usually, is whether what you're making will ever be something a lot of people want. It doesn't have to be something a lot of people want now. The product and the market will both evolve, and will influence each other's evolution. But in the end there has to be something with a huge market. That's what the partners will be trying to figure out: is there a path to a huge market? [1]

Sometimes it's obvious there will be a huge market. If Boom manages to ship an airliner at all, international airlines will have to buy it. But usually it's not obvious. Usually the path to a huge market is by growing a small market. This idea is important enough that it's worth coining a phrase for, so let's call one of these small but growable markets a "larval market."

The perfect example of a larval market might be Apple's market when they were founded in 1976. In 1976, not many people wanted their own computer. But more and more started to want one, till now every 10 year old on the planet wants a computer (but calls it a "phone").

The ideal combination is the group of founders who are "living in the future" in the sense of being at the leading edge of some kind of change, and who are building something they themselves want. Most super-successful startups are of this type. Steve Wozniak wanted a computer. Mark Zuckerberg wanted to engage online with his college friends. Larry and Sergey wanted to find things on the web. All these founders were building things they and their peers wanted, and the fact that they were at the leading edge of change meant that more people would want these things in the future.

But although the ideal larval market is oneself and one's peers, that's not the only kind. A larval market might also be regional, for example. You build something to serve one location, and then expand to others.

The crucial feature of the initial market is that it exist. That may seem like an obvious point, but the lack of it is the biggest flaw in most startup ideas. There have to be some people who want what you're building right now, and want it so urgently that they're willing to use it, bugs and all, even though you're a small company they've never heard of. There don't have to be many, but there have to be some. As long as you have some users, there are straightforward ways to get more: build new features they want, seek out more people like them, get them to refer you to their friends, and so on. But these techniques all require some initial seed group of users.

So this is one thing the YC partners will almost certainly dig into during your interview. Who are your first users going to be, and how do you know they want this? If I had to decide whether to fund startups based on a single question, it would be "How do you know people want this?"

The most convincing answer is "Because we and our friends want it." It's even better when this is followed by the news that you've already built a prototype, and even though it's very crude, your friends are using it, and it's spreading by word of mouth. If you can say that and you're not lying, the partners will switch from default no to default yes. Meaning you're in unless there's some other disqualifying flaw.

That is a hard standard to meet, though. Airbnb didn't meet it. They had the first part. They had made something they themselves wanted. But it wasn't spreading. So don't feel bad if you don't hit this gold standard of convincingness. If Airbnb didn't hit it, it must be too high.

In practice, the YC partners will be satisfied if they feel that you have a deep understanding of your users' needs. And the Airbnbs did have that. They were able to tell us all about what motivated hosts and guests. They knew from first-hand experience, because they'd been the first hosts. We couldn't ask them a question they didn't know the answer to. We ourselves were not very excited about the idea as users, but we knew this didn't prove anything, because there were lots of successful startups we hadn't been excited about as users. We were able to say to ourselves "They seem to know what they're talking about. Maybe they're onto something. It's not growing yet, but maybe they can figure out how to make it grow during YC." Which they did, about three weeks into the batch.

The best thing you can do in a YC interview is to teach the partners about your users. So if you want to prepare for your interview, one of the best ways to do it is to go talk to your users and find out exactly what they're thinking. Which is what you should be doing anyway.

This may sound strangely credulous, but the YC partners want to rely on the founders to tell them about the market. Think about how VCs typically judge the potential market for an idea. They're not ordinarily domain experts themselves, so they forward the idea to someone who is, and ask for their opinion. YC doesn't have time to do this, but if the YC partners can convince themselves that the founders both (a) know what they're talking about and (b) aren't lying, they don't need outside domain experts. They can use the founders themselves as domain experts when evaluating their own idea.

This is why YC interviews aren't pitches. To give as many founders as possible a chance to get funded, we made interviews as short as we could: 10 minutes. That is not enough time for the partners to figure out, through the indirect evidence in a pitch, whether you know what you're talking about and aren't lying. They need to dig in and ask you questions. There's not enough time for sequential access. They need random access. [2]

The worst advice I ever heard about how to succeed in a YC interview is that you should take control of the interview and make sure to deliver the message you want to. In other words, turn the interview into a pitch. ⟨elaborate expletive⟩. It is so annoying when people try to do that. You ask them a question, and instead of answering it, they deliver some obviously prefabricated blob of pitch. It eats up 10 minutes really fast.

There is no one who can give you accurate advice about what to do in a YC interview except a current or former YC partner. People who've merely been interviewed, even successfully, have no idea of this, but interviews take all sorts of different forms depending on what the partners want to know about most. Sometimes they're all about the founders, other times they're all about the idea. Sometimes some very narrow aspect of the idea. Founders sometimes walk away from interviews complaining that they didn't get to explain their idea completely. True, but they explained enough.

Since a YC interview consists of questions, the way to do it well is to answer them well. Part of that is answering them candidly. The partners don't expect you to know everything. But if you don't know the answer to a question, don't try to bullshit your way out of it. The partners, like most experienced investors, are professional bullshit detectors, and you are (hopefully) an amateur bullshitter. And if you try to bullshit them and fail, they may not even tell you that you failed. So it's better to be honest than to try to sell them. If you don't know the answer to a question, say you don't, and tell them how you'd go about finding it, or tell them the answer to some related question.

If you're asked, for example, what could go wrong, the worst possible answer is "nothing." Instead of convincing them that your idea is bullet-proof, this will convince them that you're a fool or a liar. Far better to go into gruesome detail. That's what experts do when you ask what could go wrong. The partners know that your idea is risky. That's what a good bet looks like at this stage: a tiny probability of a huge outcome.

Ditto if they ask about competitors. Competitors are rarely what kills startups. Poor execution does. But you should know who your competitors are, and tell the YC partners candidly what your relative strengths and weaknesses are. Because the YC partners know that competitors don't kill startups, they won't hold competitors against you too much. They will, however, hold it against you if you seem either to be unaware of competitors, or to be minimizing the threat they pose. They may not be sure whether you're clueless or lying, but they don't need to be.

The partners don't expect your idea to be perfect. This is seed investing. At this stage, all they can expect are promising hypotheses. But they do expect you to be thoughtful and honest. So if trying to make your idea seem perfect causes you to come off as glib or clueless, you've sacrificed something you needed for something you didn't.

If the partners are sufficiently convinced that there's a path to a big market, the next question is whether you'll be able to find it. That in turn depends on three things: the general qualities of the founders, their specific expertise in this domain, and the relationship between them. How determined are the founders? Are they good at building things? Are they resilient enough to keep going when things go wrong? How strong is their friendship?

Though the Airbnbs only did ok in the idea department, they did spectacularly well in this department. The story of how they'd funded themselves by making Obama- and McCain-themed breakfast cereal was the single most important factor in our decision to fund them. They didn't realize it at the time, but what seemed to them an irrelevant story was in fact fabulously good evidence of their qualities as founders. It showed they were resourceful and determined, and could work together.

It wasn't just the cereal story that showed that, though. The whole interview showed that they cared. They weren't doing this just for the money, or because startups were cool. The reason they were working so hard on this company was because it was their project. They had discovered an interesting new idea, and they just couldn't let it go.

Mundane as it sounds, that's the most powerful motivator of all, not just in startups, but in most ambitious undertakings: to be genuinely interested in what you're building. This is what really drives billionaires, or at least the ones who become billionaires from starting companies. The company is their project.

One thing few people realize about billionaires is that all of them could have stopped sooner. They could have gotten acquired, or found someone else to run the company. Many founders do. The ones who become really rich are the ones who keep working. And what makes them keep working is not just money. What keeps them working is the same thing that keeps anyone else working when they could stop if they wanted to: that there's nothing else they'd rather do.

That, not exploiting people, is the defining quality of people who become billionaires from starting companies. So that's what YC looks for in founders: authenticity. People's motives for starting startups are usually mixed. They're usually doing it from some combination of the desire to make money, the desire to seem cool, genuine interest in the problem, and unwillingness to work for someone else. The last two are more powerful motivators than the first two. It's ok for founders to want to make money or to seem cool. Most do. But if the founders seem like they're doing it just to make money or just to seem cool, they're not likely to succeed on a big scale. The founders who are doing it for the money will take the first sufficiently large acquisition offer, and the ones who are doing it to seem cool will rapidly discover that there are much less painful ways of seeming cool. [3]

Y Combinator certainly sees founders whose m.o. is to exploit people. YC is a magnet for them, because they want the YC brand. But when the YC partners detect someone like that, they reject them. If bad people made good founders, the YC partners would face a moral dilemma. Fortunately they don't, because bad people make bad founders. This exploitative type of founder is not going to succeed on a large scale, and in fact probably won't even succeed on a small one, because they're always going to be taking shortcuts. They see YC itself as a shortcut.

Their exploitation usually begins with their own cofounders, which is disastrous, since the cofounders' relationship is the foundation of the company. Then it moves on to the users, which is also disastrous, because the sort of early adopters a successful startup wants as its initial users are the hardest to fool. The best this kind of founder can hope for is to keep the edifice of deception tottering along until some acquirer can be tricked into buying it. But that kind of acquisition is never very big. [4]

If professional billionaire scouts know that exploiting people is not the skill to look for, why do some politicians think this is the defining quality of billionaires?

I think they start from the feeling that it's wrong that one person could have so much more money than another. It's understandable where that feeling comes from. It's in our DNA, and even in the DNA of other species.

If they limited themselves to saying that it made them feel bad when one person had so much more money than other people, who would disagree? It makes me feel bad too, and I think people who make a lot of money have a moral obligation to use it for the common good. The mistake they make is to jump from feeling bad that some people are much richer than others to the conclusion that there's no legitimate way to make a very large amount of money. Now we're getting into statements that are not only falsifiable, but false.

There are certainly some people who become rich by doing bad things. But there are also plenty of people who behave badly and don't make that much from it. There is no correlation — in fact, probably an inverse correlation — between how badly you behave and how much money you make.

The greatest danger of this nonsense may not even be that it sends policy astray, but that it misleads ambitious people. Can you imagine a better way to destroy social mobility than by telling poor kids that the way to get rich is by exploiting people, while the rich kids know, from having watched the preceding generation do it, how it's really done?

I'll tell you how it's really done, so you can at least tell your own kids the truth. It's all about users. The most reliable way to become a billionaire is to start a company that grows fast, and the way to grow fast is to make what users want. Newly started startups have no choice but to delight users, or they'll never even get rolling. But this never stops being the lodestar, and bigger companies take their eye off it at their peril. Stop delighting users, and eventually someone else will.

Users are what the partners want to know about in YC interviews, and what I want to know about when I talk to founders that we funded ten years ago and who are billionaires now. What do users want? What new things could you build for them? Founders who've become billionaires are always eager to talk about that topic. That's how they became billionaires.

I was talking recently to a friend who teaches at MIT. His field is hot now and every year he is inundated by applications from would-be graduate students. "A lot of them seem smart," he said. "What I can't tell is whether they have any kind of taste."

Taste. You don't hear that word much now. And yet we still need the underlying concept, whatever we call it. What my friend meant was that he wanted students who were not just good technicians, but who could use their technical knowledge to design beautiful things.

Mathematicians call good work "beautiful," and so, either now or in the past, have scientists, engineers, musicians, architects, designers, writers, and painters. Is it just a coincidence that they used the same word, or is there some overlap in what they meant? If there is an overlap, can we use one field's discoveries about beauty to help us in another?

For those of us who design things, these are not just theoretical questions. If there is such a thing as beauty, we need to be able to recognize it. We need good taste to make good things. Instead of treating beauty as an airy abstraction, to be either blathered about or avoided depending on how one feels about airy abstractions, let's try considering it as a practical question: how do you make good stuff?

If you mention taste nowadays, a lot of people will tell you that "taste is subjective." They believe this because it really feels that way to them. When they like something, they have no idea why. It could be because it's beautiful, or because their mother had one, or because they saw a movie star with one in a magazine, or because they know it's expensive. Their thoughts are a tangle of unexamined impulses.

Most of us are encouraged, as children, to leave this tangle unexamined. If you make fun of your little brother for coloring people green in his coloring book, your mother is likely to tell you something like "you like to do it your way and he likes to do it his way."

Your mother at this point is not trying to teach you important truths about aesthetics. She's trying to get the two of you to stop bickering.

Like many of the half-truths adults tell us, this one contradicts other things they tell us. After dinning into you that taste is merely a matter of personal preference, they take you to the museum and tell you that you should pay attention because Leonardo is a great artist.

What goes through the kid's head at this point? What does he think "great artist" means? After having been told for years that everyone just likes to do things their own way, he is unlikely to head straight for the conclusion that a great artist is someone whose work is better than the others'. A far more likely theory, in his Ptolemaic model of the universe, is that a great artist is something that's good for you, like broccoli, because someone said so in a book.

Saying that taste is just personal preference is a good way to prevent disputes. The trouble is, it's not true. You feel this when you start to design things.

Whatever job people do, they naturally want to do better. Football players like to win games. CEOs like to increase earnings. It's a matter of pride, and a real pleasure, to get better at your job. But if your job is to design things, and there is no such thing as beauty, then there is no way to get better at your job. If taste is just personal preference, then everyone's is already perfect: you like whatever you like, and that's it.

As in any job, as you continue to design things, you'll get better at it. Your tastes will change. And, like anyone who gets better at their job, you'll know you're getting better. If so, your old tastes were not merely different, but worse. Poof goes the axiom that taste can't be wrong.

Relativism is fashionable at the moment, and that may hamper you from thinking about taste, even as yours grows. But if you come out of the closet and admit, at least to yourself, that there is such a thing as good and bad design, then you can start to study good design in detail. How has your taste changed? When you made mistakes, what caused you to make them? What have other people learned about design?

Once you start to examine the question, it's surprising how much different fields' ideas of beauty have in common. The same principles of good design crop up again and again.

Good design is simple. You hear this from math to painting. In math it means that a shorter proof tends to be a better one. Where axioms are concerned, especially, less is more. It means much the same thing in programming. For architects and designers it means that beauty should depend on a few carefully chosen structural elements rather than a profusion of superficial ornament. (Ornament is not in itself bad, only when it's camouflage on insipid form.) Similarly, in painting, a still life of a few carefully observed and solidly modelled objects will tend to be more interesting than a stretch of flashy but mindlessly repetitive painting of, say, a lace collar. In writing it means: say what you mean and say it briefly.

It seems strange to have to emphasize simplicity. You'd think simple would be the default. Ornate is more work. But something seems to come over people when they try to be creative. Beginning writers adopt a pompous tone that doesn't sound anything like the way they speak. Designers trying to be artistic resort to swooshes and curlicues. Painters discover that they're expressionists. It's all evasion. Underneath the long words or the "expressive" brush strokes, there is not much going on, and that's frightening.

When you're forced to be simple, you're forced to face the real problem. When you can't deliver ornament, you have to deliver substance.

Good design is timeless. In math, every proof is timeless unless it contains a mistake. So what does Hardy mean when he says there is no permanent place for ugly mathematics? He means the same thing Kelly Johnson did: if something is ugly, it can't be the best solution. There must be a better one, and eventually someone will discover it.

Aiming at timelessness is a way to make yourself find the best answer: if you can imagine someone surpassing you, you should do it yourself. Some of the greatest masters did this so well that they left little room for those who came after. Every engraver since Durer has had to live in his shadow.

Aiming at timelessness is also a way to evade the grip of fashion. Fashions almost by definition change with time, so if you can make something that will still look good far into the future, then its appeal must derive more from merit and less from fashion.

Strangely enough, if you want to make something that will appeal to future generations, one way to do it is to try to appeal to past generations. It's hard to guess what the future will be like, but we can be sure it will be like the past in caring nothing for present fashions. So if you can make something that appeals to people today and would also have appealed to people in 1500, there is a good chance it will appeal to people in 2500.

Good design solves the right problem. The typical stove has four burners arranged in a square, and a dial to control each. How do you arrange the dials? The simplest answer is to put them in a row. But this is a simple answer to the wrong question. The dials are for humans to use, and if you put them in a row, the unlucky human will have to stop and think each time about which dial matches which burner. Better to arrange the dials in a square like the burners.

A lot of bad design is industrious, but misguided. In the mid twentieth century there was a vogue for setting text in sans-serif fonts. These fonts are closer to the pure, underlying letterforms. But in text that's not the problem you're trying to solve. For legibility it's more important that letters be easy to tell apart. It may look Victorian, but a Times Roman lowercase g is easy to tell from a lowercase y.

Problems can be improved as well as solutions. In software, an intractable problem can usually be replaced by an equivalent one that's easy to solve. Physics progressed faster as the problem became predicting observable behavior, instead of reconciling it with scripture.

Good design is suggestive. Jane Austen's novels contain almost no description; instead of telling you how everything looks, she tells her story so well that you envision the scene for yourself. Likewise, a painting that suggests is usually more engaging than one that tells. Everyone makes up their own story about the Mona Lisa.

In architecture and design, this principle means that a building or object should let you use it how you want: a good building, for example, will serve as a backdrop for whatever life people want to lead in it, instead of making them live as if they were executing a program written by the architect.

In software, it means you should give users a few basic elements that they can combine as they wish, like Lego. In math it means a proof that becomes the basis for a lot of new work is preferable to a proof that was difficult, but doesn't lead to future discoveries; in the sciences generally, citation is considered a rough indicator of merit.

Good design is often slightly funny. This one may not always be true. But Durer's engravings and Saarinen's womb chair and the Pantheon and the original Porsche 911 all seem to me slightly funny. Godel's incompleteness theorem seems like a practical joke.

I think it's because humor is related to strength. To have a sense of humor is to be strong: to keep one's sense of humor is to shrug off misfortunes, and to lose one's sense of humor is to be wounded by them. And so the mark-- or at least the prerogative-- of strength is not to take oneself too seriously. The confident will often, like swallows, seem to be making fun of the whole process slightly, as Hitchcock does in his films or Bruegel in his paintings-- or Shakespeare, for that matter.

Good design may not have to be funny, but it's hard to imagine something that could be called humorless also being good design.

Good design is hard. If you look at the people who've done great work, one thing they all seem to have in common is that they worked very hard. If you're not working hard, you're probably wasting your time.

Hard problems call for great efforts. In math, difficult proofs require ingenious solutions, and those tend to be interesting. Ditto in engineering.

When you have to climb a mountain you toss everything unnecessary out of your pack. And so an architect who has to build on a difficult site, or a small budget, will find that he is forced to produce an elegant design. Fashions and flourishes get knocked aside by the difficult business of solving the problem at all.

Not every kind of hard is good. There is good pain and bad pain. You want the kind of pain you get from going running, not the kind you get from stepping on a nail. A difficult problem could be good for a designer, but a fickle client or unreliable materials would not be.

In art, the highest place has traditionally been given to paintings of people. There is something to this tradition, and not just because pictures of faces get to press buttons in our brains that other pictures don't. We are so good at looking at faces that we force anyone who draws them to work hard to satisfy us. If you draw a tree and you change the angle of a branch five degrees, no one will know. When you change the angle of someone's eye five degrees, people notice.

When Bauhaus designers adopted Sullivan's "form follows function," what they meant was, form should follow function. And if function is hard enough, form is forced to follow it, because there is no effort to spare for error. Wild animals are beautiful because they have hard lives.

Good design looks easy. Like great athletes, great designers make it look easy. Mostly this is an illusion. The easy, conversational tone of good writing comes only on the eighth rewrite.

In science and engineering, some of the greatest discoveries seem so simple that you say to yourself, I could have thought of that. The discoverer is entitled to reply, why didn't you?

Some Leonardo heads are just a few lines. You look at them and you think, all you have to do is get eight or ten lines in the right place and you've made this beautiful portrait. Well, yes, but you have to get them in exactly the right place. The slightest error will make the whole thing collapse.

Line drawings are in fact the most difficult visual medium, because they demand near perfection. In math terms, they are a closed-form solution; lesser artists literally solve the same problems by successive approximation. One of the reasons kids give up drawing at ten or so is that they decide to start drawing like grownups, and one of the first things they try is a line drawing of a face. Smack!

In most fields the appearance of ease seems to come with practice. Perhaps what practice does is train your unconscious mind to handle tasks that used to require conscious thought. In some cases you literally train your body. An expert pianist can play notes faster than the brain can send signals to his hand. Likewise an artist, after a while, can make visual perception flow in through his eye and out through his hand as automatically as someone tapping his foot to a beat.

When people talk about being in "the zone," I think what they mean is that the spinal cord has the situation under control. Your spinal cord is less hesitant, and it frees conscious thought for the hard problems.

Good design uses symmetry. I think symmetry may just be one way to achieve simplicity, but it's important enough to be mentioned on its own. Nature uses it a lot, which is a good sign.

There are two kinds of symmetry, repetition and recursion. Recursion means repetition in subelements, like the pattern of veins in a leaf.

Symmetry is unfashionable in some fields now, in reaction to excesses in the past. Architects started consciously making buildings asymmetric in Victorian times and by the 1920s asymmetry was an explicit premise of modernist architecture. Even these buildings only tended to be asymmetric about major axes, though; there were hundreds of minor symmetries.

In writing you find symmetry at every level, from the phrases in a sentence to the plot of a novel. You find the same in music and art. Mosaics (and some Cezannes) get extra visual punch by making the whole picture out of the same atoms. Compositional symmetry yields some of the most memorable paintings, especially when two halves react to one another, as in the Creation of Adam or American Gothic.

In math and engineering, recursion, especially, is a big win. Inductive proofs are wonderfully short. In software, a problem that can be solved by recursion is nearly always best solved that way. The Eiffel Tower looks striking partly because it is a recursive solution, a tower on a tower.

The danger of symmetry, and repetition especially, is that it can be used as a substitute for thought.

Good design resembles nature. It's not so much that resembling nature is intrinsically good as that nature has had a long time to work on the problem. It's a good sign when your answer resembles nature's.

It's not cheating to copy. Few would deny that a story should be like life. Working from life is a valuable tool in painting too, though its role has often been misunderstood. The aim is not simply to make a record. The point of painting from life is that it gives your mind something to chew on: when your eyes are looking at something, your hand will do more interesting work.

Imitating nature also works in engineering. Boats have long had spines and ribs like an animal's ribcage. In some cases we may have to wait for better technology: early aircraft designers were mistaken to design aircraft that looked like birds, because they didn't have materials or power sources light enough (the Wrights' engine weighed 152 lbs. and generated only 12 hp.) or control systems sophisticated enough for machines that flew like birds, but I could imagine little unmanned reconnaissance planes flying like birds in fifty years.

Now that we have enough computer power, we can imitate nature's method as well as its results. Genetic algorithms may let us create things too complex to design in the ordinary sense.

Good design is redesign. It's rare to get things right the first time. Experts expect to throw away some early work. They plan for plans to change.

It takes confidence to throw work away. You have to be able to think, there's more where that came from. When people first start drawing, for example, they're often reluctant to redo parts that aren't right; they feel they've been lucky to get that far, and if they try to redo something, it will turn out worse. Instead they convince themselves that the drawing is not that bad, really-- in fact, maybe they meant it to look that way.

Dangerous territory, that; if anything you should cultivate dissatisfaction. In Leonardo's drawings there are often five or six attempts to get a line right. The distinctive back of the Porsche 911 only appeared in the redesign of an awkward prototype. In Wright's early plans for the Guggenheim, the right half was a ziggurat; he inverted it to get the present shape.

Mistakes are natural. Instead of treating them as disasters, make them easy to acknowledge and easy to fix. Leonardo more or less invented the sketch, as a way to make drawing bear a greater weight of exploration. Open-source software has fewer bugs because it admits the possibility of bugs.

It helps to have a medium that makes change easy. When oil paint replaced tempera in the fifteenth century, it helped painters to deal with difficult subjects like the human figure because, unlike tempera, oil can be blended and overpainted.

Good design can copy. Attitudes to copying often make a round trip. A novice imitates without knowing it; next he tries consciously to be original; finally, he decides it's more important to be right than original.

Unknowing imitation is almost a recipe for bad design. If you don't know where your ideas are coming from, you're probably imitating an imitator. Raphael so pervaded mid-nineteenth century taste that almost anyone who tried to draw was imitating him, often at several removes. It was this, more than Raphael's own work, that bothered the Pre-Raphaelites.

The ambitious are not content to imitate. The second phase in the growth of taste is a conscious attempt at originality.

I think the greatest masters go on to achieve a kind of selflessness. They just want to get the right answer, and if part of the right answer has already been discovered by someone else, that's no reason not to use it. They're confident enough to take from anyone without feeling that their own vision will be lost in the process.

Good design is often strange. Some of the very best work has an uncanny quality: Euler's Formula, Bruegel's Hunters in the Snow, the SR-71, Lisp. They're not just beautiful, but strangely beautiful.

I'm not sure why. It may just be my own stupidity. A can-opener must seem miraculous to a dog. Maybe if I were smart enough it would seem the most natural thing in the world that ei*pi = -1. It is after all necessarily true.

Most of the qualities I've mentioned are things that can be cultivated, but I don't think it works to cultivate strangeness. The best you can do is not squash it if it starts to appear. Einstein didn't try to make relativity strange. He tried to make it true, and the truth turned out to be strange.

At an art school where I once studied, the students wanted most of all to develop a personal style. But if you just try to make good things, you'll inevitably do it in a distinctive way, just as each person walks in a distinctive way. Michelangelo was not trying to paint like Michelangelo. He was just trying to paint well; he couldn't help painting like Michelangelo.

The only style worth having is the one you can't help. And this is especially true for strangeness. There is no shortcut to it. The Northwest Passage that the Mannerists, the Romantics, and two generations of American high school students have searched for does not seem to exist. The only way to get there is to go through good and come out the other side.

Good design happens in chunks. The inhabitants of fifteenth century Florence included Brunelleschi, Ghiberti, Donatello, Masaccio, Filippo Lippi, Fra Angelico, Verrocchio, Botticelli, Leonardo, and Michelangelo. Milan at the time was as big as Florence. How many fifteenth century Milanese artists can you name?

Something was happening in Florence in the fifteenth century. And it can't have been heredity, because it isn't happening now. You have to assume that whatever inborn ability Leonardo and Michelangelo had, there were people born in Milan with just as much. What happened to the Milanese Leonardo?

There are roughly a thousand times as many people alive in the US right now as lived in Florence during the fifteenth century. A thousand Leonardos and a thousand Michelangelos walk among us. If DNA ruled, we should be greeted daily by artistic marvels. We aren't, and the reason is that to make Leonardo you need more than his innate ability. You also need Florence in 1450.

Nothing is more powerful than a community of talented people working on related problems. Genes count for little by comparison: being a genetic Leonardo was not enough to compensate for having been born near Milan instead of Florence. Today we move around more, but great work still comes disproportionately from a few hotspots: the Bauhaus, the Manhattan Project, the New Yorker, Lockheed's Skunk Works, Xerox Parc.

At any given time there are a few hot topics and a few groups doing great work on them, and it's nearly impossible to do good work yourself if you're too far removed from one of these centers. You can push or pull these trends to some extent, but you can't break away from them. (Maybe you can, but the Milanese Leonardo couldn't.)

Good design is often daring. At every period of history, people have believed things that were just ridiculous, and believed them so strongly that you risked ostracism or even violence by saying otherwise.

If our own time were any different, that would be remarkable. As far as I can tell it isn't.

This problem afflicts not just every era, but in some degree every field. Much Renaissance art was in its time considered shockingly secular: according to Vasari, Botticelli repented and gave up painting, and Fra Bartolommeo and Lorenzo di Credi actually burned some of their work. Einstein's theory of relativity offended many contemporary physicists, and was not fully accepted for decades-- in France, not until the 1950s.

Today's experimental error is tomorrow's new theory. If you want to discover great new things, then instead of turning a blind eye to the places where conventional wisdom and truth don't quite meet, you should pay particular attention to them.

As a practical matter, I think it's easier to see ugliness than to imagine beauty. Most of the people who've made beautiful things seem to have done it by fixing something that they thought ugly. Great work usually seems to happen because someone sees something and thinks, I could do better than that. Giotto saw traditional Byzantine madonnas painted according to a formula that had satisfied everyone for centuries, and to him they looked wooden and unnatural. Copernicus was so troubled by a hack that all his contemporaries could tolerate that he felt there must be a better solution.

Intolerance for ugliness is not in itself enough. You have to understand a field well before you develop a good nose for what needs fixing. You have to do your homework. But as you become expert in a field, you'll start to hear little voices saying, What a hack! There must be a better way. Don't ignore those voices. Cultivate them. The recipe for great work is: very exacting taste, plus the ability to gratify it.

Dear Bitcoin Blok Community,

We're back with another masterclass, this time bringing you insights from Michael Saylor's most recent presentation at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. Prepare for another thought provoking lecture about the impact and the benefitsof Bitcoin!

Saylor's vision of Bitcoin as the ultimate "digital capital" is more compelling than ever. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Immortal Capital: Saylor argues that Bitcoin represents a leap in capital preservation, potentially lasting thousands of years compared to traditional assets' 30-50 year lifespan.

2. $270 Trillion Opportunity: The potential market for digital capital is estimated at $270 trillion, based on current global wealth and preservation costs.

3. 2045 Bitcoin Forecast: Saylor projects Bitcoin could reach $13 million per coin by 2045 in his base case, representing about 7% of global assets.

4. Tiered Investment Strategies: From "Normie" to "Triple Maxi," Saylor outlines Bitcoin strategies for individuals, corporations, and even nations.

5. National Bitcoin Adoption: Countries embracing Bitcoin aggressively could potentially turn national debts into surpluses.

6. U.S. Economic Impact: Saylor demonstrates how various levels of Bitcoin adoption could reshape the U.S. economy, potentially solving "half our problems."

7. Cyber Manhattan: Bitcoin is likened to "cyber Manhattan," with Saylor predicting a massive capital influx and demonetization of less efficient value stores.

While Saylor's optimism is infectious, we encourage critical thinking and thorough research. If even a fraction of his vision materializes, we're witnessing the dawn of an economic revolution.

What's your take on Saylor's predictions? Hit reply and share your thoughts!

Stay sovereign, The Bitcoin Blok Team

P.S. Recall Satoshi's words: "It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on." Saylor argues we're now staring at a trillion dollars of proof that it has.

P.P.S. Don't miss Saylor's full Bitcoin 2024 presentation here: https://youtu.be/O9KnBcWMkpw?si=7Szn-pvBMgR5Pw8S. It's a masterclass in Bitcoin strategy you'll want to watch!

Workshop je zameraný pre všetkých, ktorí sa potýkajú s vysvetľovaním Bitcoinu svojej rodine, kamarátom, partnerom alebo kolegom. Pri námietkach z druhej strany väčšinou ideme do protiútoku a snažíme sa vytiahnuť tie najlepšie argumenty. Na tomto workshope vás naučím nový prístup k zvládaniu námietok a vyskúšate si ho aj v praxi. Know-how je aplikovateľné nie len na komunikáciu Bitcoinu ale aj pre zlepšenie vzťahov, pri výchove detí a celkovo pre lepší osobný život.

Portugal na última década, tem sido um dos principais destinos de férias a nível mundial, está na moda. Foi o turismo que permitiu sair da crise da dívida soberana de 2012, a partir daí tem sido o principal motor da economia.

O forte crescimento do turismo não é exclusivo de Portugal, é global. As sociedades estão cada vez mais consumistas, sedentas por experiências e a isto somarmos que o viajar deixou de ser um bem de luxo. Companhias aéreas lowcost como a Ryanair e a EasyJet contribuíram para uma forma de turismo de massa.

Este crescimento do turismo foi o eixo central para a reabilitação dos centros históricos das grandes cidades, que estavam envelhecidos e degradados. Permitiu criar dezenas de milhares de empregos, é atualmente um dos sectores onde existe mais falta de mão-de-obra.

«O turismo foi a origem em Portugal de 19,1% da riqueza produzida no ano passado, de acordo com o relatório do World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), que aponta Portugal como o 5º país onde é mais forte a contribuição do turismo para o PIB. Em valor absoluto da contribuição do turismo para o PIB, Portugal surge em 29º entre os 40 países especificados na informação do WTTC, com 45 mil milhões de dólares, à frente da Grécia, com 44 mil milhões.» – sgeconomia.gov.pt

Mas o peso do turismo na economia começa a ser um problema, o país está demasiado dependente de um único sector económico, é importante uma maior diversificação para uma melhor resiliência a futuras crises.

Este turismo de massas dá um forte contributo nas economias mas possivelmente já passou do ponto de equilíbrio. Permitiu reabilitação dos centros históricos, que estavam muito degradados, mas também houve muitos abusos, muitos casos de moradores locais que foram despejados dos bairros onde sempre viveram. E os moradores locais que restam se começassem a sentir estrangeiros nas suas próprias cidades.

O turismo de massa tornou o custo de vida nas zonas mais turísticas exorbitantes, a subida de preços tornou muito comércios e restaurantes quase “exclusivos” para turistas, onde o comum português não pode consumir e usufruir, devido ao seu baixo poder de compra. No início, o aumento do custo de vida ocorreram mais nos centros históricos, depois alastrou-se para o restante da cidade, agora está pelo país inteiro.

O Airbnb tem contribuído imenso para o crescimento do aumento do turismo, mas também para retirar casas do mercado para os locais, menos oferta logo preços mais elevados. Como gerou muitos empregos e geralmente mal pagos, os países europeus necessitam de mais mão-de-obra estrangeira, mais gente a viver, aumenta mais a pressão na escassez da habitação.

As infraestruturas das cidades estão a ceder sob a pressão, não foram construídas para tantas pessoas. Nas grandes cidades, o trânsito está cada vez mais caótico, a importação de tuk-tuk é uma aberração, as ruas estão muito menos limpas. Os centros históricos estão se transformando num parque de diversão para turistas.

Em 2018, a revista alemã Der Spiegel fez uma reportagem onde alertava o problema, a descaracterização das cidades, mas hoje está bem pior.

“Em Portugal, já há muito que se fala neste fenómeno. Há vários grupos e cidadãos que alertam para o facto de as zonas históricas estarem em risco de descaracterização, de os espaços de restauração ficarem iguais e de os monumentos ficarem tão lotados que não se conseguem visitar.” – Der Spiegel

Isto é uma espiral da morte, este excesso de turismo está a destruir aquilo que eles querem experienciar ou ver. A autenticidade, o castiço que existia em Portugal, foi o que trouxe os turistas, está a ser destruído pelo turismo de massas.

Outras das críticas é a poluição, sobretudo pela aviação. Aqui surge outro problema, será que faz sentido o turismo internacional de fim de semana? Faz sentido fazer dois voos de avião, altamente poluidores, só para passar apenas dois ou três numa capital europeia? Na minha opinião, não faz sentido, pelo menos uma semana para ver a cidade. 2 dias não dá para ver nada, é mais tempo em aeroporto que a usufruir da cidade. Possivelmente é essa ideia, mais que usufruir a cidade, é mostrar ao outro que foi à cidade, o alimentar do instagram e gerar inveja, dizer aos amigos e aos colegas de trabalho que já visitou dezenas de cidades europeias. Isto é um sintoma do consumismo excessivo, de alta preferência temporal.

O aeroporto de Lisboa é outra novela, há muito que a sua capacidade está esgotada, é a pura demonstração da incompetência dos políticos portugueses, não conseguem escolher um local para a construção do novo aeroporto, já houve dezenas de localizações diferentes, a cada novo governo, anula tudo o que anterior fez e volta à fase inicial, estamos nisto há 50 anos. Foram gastos milhões em estudos e comissões e nada saiu do papel.

Outro cúmulo da política portuguesa é o aeroporto de Beja, praticamente não é utilizado:

«O aeroporto de Beja registou, no passado mês de outubro, 1484 passageiros, assinalando, assim, “o melhor mês de 2023”. No total, a infraestrutura recebeu, nos 11 primeiros meses do ano passado, 4907 passageiros, maioritariamente, de jatos privados.» – diariodoalentejo.pt

«O aeroporto de Lisboa movimentou, em 2023, 49,8% do total de passageiros (33,6 milhões), tendo crescido 19,1% comparando com 2022 e 7,9% face a 2019. Já o aeroporto do Porto movimentou 15,2 milhões de passageiros e Faro 9,64 milhões.» – ECO

De um lado temos um aeroporto lotado que recebe 33 milhões, por outro lado, a apenas 180 km temos um aeroporto internacional praticamente novo, que recebe apenas 5000 passageiros por ano, completamente vazio.

Se cerca de 6% dos turistas têm como destino o Alentejo e a zona centro recebem 12% dos turistas, parte destes turistas deveriam ser canalizados para Beja. Não faz qualquer sentido, com a existência de um aeroporto no Alentejo, os turistas com destino ao Alentejo e zona centro aterrarem todos em Lisboa, quando o de Beja está mais perto.

Com os incentivos certos, 10% poderiam aterrar em Beja, só que o governo não faz nada, é o problema da centralização. Quando não existe vontade política, nada muda.

Mas o ponto de equilíbrio já há muito tempo que foi ultrapassado, no estrangeiro já é comum os protestos dos locais contra o excesso de turismo, em Portugal estão a surgir os primeiros movimentos.

«A wave of protest against the negative impact of mass tourism is sweeping over Spain’s most popular holiday hotspots. ‘Go home!’, cries out a man in swimming togs, frantically waving at a group of bewildered tourists trying to access the Caló des Moro, one of Majorca’s most famous and picturesque beaches. He is one of the dozens of residents who had come early that Sunday to occupy the site, in protest againsst the ‘massification’ of tourism, which they say has “devastating effects” on their island, and their lives. ‘We have cruises [cruise ships] every day with thousands of people. We have a flight every minute! It’s cars, it’s pollution. Beaches, restaurants are full of the streets are full of people! We’re fed up!’ exclaims Joana Maria Estrany Vallespir, from “SOS Residents”, a protest collective. ‘TOURISM IS KILLING US’» – EuroNews

Os protestos estão a surgir nos principais centros turísticos em todo o mundo, especialmente nas principais capitais europeias.

Dependência

Portugal está com um problema melindroso e complexo, é verdade que o excesso de turismo está a criar problemas, mas uma possível redução do turismo vai gerar ainda mais problemas. O país está demasiado dependente do turismo, sem ele, a crise será muito severa, será dramática. 

O turismo é uma indústria orgânica, cresce sozinha, é descentralizada, não necessita de grande ajudas do estado, por isso cresce.

Os políticos passam o tempo a elogiar o crescimento económico (medíocre) do país, mas só acontece devido ao turismo. O restante da economia está estagnado, o centralismo político contenta-se com pouco, nada faz para incentivar/ajudar o crescimento de outras áreas. As ajudas não são necessariamente em dinheiro, basta menos burocracia e menos impostos e boas vias de comunicação. Portugal tem urgentemente reduzir a dependência do turismo, senão vai ter graves problemas.

É claro que o turismo é sector importante na economia, mas não pode ser o principal. E algo que temos que questionar, é se queremos o turismo de massas. Na minha opinião seria melhor para o país, em primeiro deslocalização do turismo por todo o país, para não ficar concentrado em poucos pontos. Também necessitamos reformular o turismo, para um turista com um poder de compra mais elevado, deixar de ser uma indústria de turismo low cost e de baixos salários. 

Número de trabalhadores e remuneração bruta por trabalhador, 2014-2023: Fonte: INE

Especificamente nas atividades de Alojamento (CAE 55), a remuneração bruta mensal por trabalhador situou-se em 1 249 euros em 2023. O salário médio de um trabalhador do sector do turismo é sempre menor que o salário médio nacional, ou seja, uma economia baseada em salários baixos. 

Faz mais sentido apostar nos turistas com médio/alto poder de compra, alongamentos e serviços de melhor qualidade, funcionários mais qualificados e claro mais bem pagos.

É lógico que existirá menos turistas, mas gastam mais dinheiro, os centros históricos são menos caóticos, gerando uma melhor harmonia entre turistas e locais.

Habitação

Como disse em cima, o turismo não é o principal responsável, mas tem certa responsabilidade no problema habitacional na maioria dos países. 

O principal problema tem origem na expansão monetária, levando as pessoas a comprar casas como uma reserva de valor, como uma proteção ou investimento. Como a procura aumentou e a oferta não acompanhou esse aumento, nos últimos anos foram construídas habitações suficientes. Essa enorme escassez levou a uma forte valorização das habitações, ficando inacessível aos jovens.

Agora é impossível resolver o problema rapidamente, vai demorar muitos anos, é necessário uma enorme planificação, é necessário construir muito e para complicar não existe mão-de-obra. Aqui está outro problema, os políticos portugueses não sabem planear a longo prazo. Alguns governos já estão a avançar com projectos de construção de habitação, mas só provocará efeitos a médio/longo prazo. Isto não é um problema exclusivo de Portugal, é um problema no mundo ocidental.

«O aumento constante dos preços e rendas das casas agravaram a crise da habitação na UE na última década ainda que esta atinja de forma distinta os Estados-membros. Apesar de ser competência nacional a dimensão da crise da habitação está a fazer soar alarmes em Bruxelas e a levar o debate para o seio das instituições comunitárias.» – Sábado

Devido à pressão das populações, os governos estão a começar a tomar medidas extremas com o objetivo de ter efeitos a curto prazo, como colocar restrições ao Airbnb.

«Nova Iorque declara guerra ao Airbnb. Quer proibir os arrendamentos de curta duração._ _Milhares de alojamentos na cidade dos Estados Unidos da América estão prestes a ser eliminados da plataforma. Após um ano de negociações, a Lei Local 18 (Local Law 18) entrou em vigor esta terça-feira, 5 de setembro, e é ainda mais rigorosa do que se previa. Não basta fazer o registo na administração local para poder listar um imóvel na plataforma. A partir de agora, só os anfitriões que moram na cidade é que podem colocar uma casa para arrendar no Airbnb — e têm de estar presentes quando alguém está hospedado. Cada pessoa só poderá ter, no máximo, dois convidados.» – NIT

«Itália está a considerar novas regras à escala nacional enquanto Penang, na Malásia, introduziu recentemente uma proibição. Da Europa aos EUA, as cidades começaram a impor restrições aos alugueres de curta duração para contrariar a tendência. Na semana passada, Florença, em Itália, anunciou a proibição de novas listagens do Airbnb e de outros alugueres de férias de curta duração no centro histórico da cidade. O país agora está a contemplar o endurecimento das regras à escala nacional. Itália não é o único destino a bater o pé. Esta semana, a popular ilha de Penang, na Malásia, proibiu as acomodações ao estilo Airbnb.» – EuroNews

A bolha do turismo está a alimentar a bolha no imobiliário, são duas enormes bolhas em simultâneo. Se a bolha do turismo rebentar, muitos negócios vão fechar, libertando imensas habitações. Além disso, vai gerar muito desemprego, muitos emigrantes vão voltar à sua terra natal, libertando ainda mais casas.

Se isto acontecer, vai provocar um excesso de oferta no mercado imobiliário e devido à crise vai gerar uma baixa na procura. Um choque na oferta, vai provocar uma forte queda do preço das casas, podendo provocar o estouro da bolha do imobiliário.

A crise do turismo poderá ser a primeira pedra do dominó a cair.

Hello, Nostr!!!

خرید دستگیره پنجره، یکی از تصمیمات مهم در تعمیرات و بازسازی ساختمان است. دستگیره نه تنها بر ظاهر پنجره تأثیر می‌گذارد، بلکه عملکرد و امنیت آن را نیز تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. در این راهنما، به شما کمک می‌کنیم تا با انواع دستگیره، نکات مهم هنگام خرید و نصب آن آشنا شوید.

انواع دستگیره پنجره دستگیره‌های پنجره در طرح‌ها، جنس‌ها و عملکردهای مختلفی تولید می‌شوند. برخی از انواع رایج عبارتند از:

دستگیره‌های UPVC: این دستگیره‌ها از جنس پلاستیک PVC ساخته شده و برای پنجره‌های UPVC مناسب هستند. تنوع مدل و رنگ بالایی دارند و معمولاً قیمت مناسبی دارند. دستگیره‌های آلومینیومی: این دستگیره‌ها از آلومینیوم ساخته شده و مقاومت بالایی در برابر رطوبت و خوردگی دارند. برای پنجره‌های آلومینیومی مناسب هستند. دستگیره‌های چوبی: این دستگیره‌ها از چوب طبیعی ساخته شده و ظاهر کلاسیک و زیبایی دارند. برای پنجره‌های چوبی مناسب هستند. دستگیره‌های ترکیبی: این دستگیره‌ها ترکیبی از مواد مختلف مانند فلز و چوب هستند و ظاهر مدرن و زیبایی دارند. نکات مهم هنگام خرید دستگیره پنجره نوع پنجره: دستگیره را متناسب با نوع پنجره خود (UPVC، آلومینیومی، چوبی) انتخاب کنید. جنس دستگیره: جنس دستگیره را با توجه به محیط و شرایط آب و هوایی انتخاب کنید. طرح و رنگ: طرح و رنگ دستگیره را با دکوراسیون داخلی خود هماهنگ کنید. عملکرد: به عملکرد دستگیره توجه کنید. برخی از دستگیره‌ها قابلیت قفل شدن دارند و برخی دیگر قابلیت تنظیم میزان باز شدن پنجره را دارند. ابعاد: ابعاد دستگیره را با سوراخ‌های موجود در پنجره خود تطبیق دهید. کیفیت ساخت: از کیفیت ساخت دستگیره اطمینان حاصل کنید. دستگیره‌های با کیفیت، دوام بیشتری دارند. گارانتی: دستگیره‌ای را انتخاب کنید که دارای گارانتی باشد. مراحل نصب دستگیره پنجره تعیین نوع دستگیره: نوع دستگیره مناسب را انتخاب کنید. اندازه گیری: ابعاد دستگیره و سوراخ‌های موجود در پنجره را اندازه گیری کنید. آماده سازی: پنجره را تمیز کرده و از محکم بودن پیچ‌ها اطمینان حاصل کنید. نصب دستگیره: دستگیره جدید را جایگزین دستگیره قدیمی کنید و پیچ‌ها را محکم ببندید. توجه: اگر در نصب دستگیره پنجره مهارت ندارید، بهتر است از یک متخصص کمک بگیرید.

مزایای تعویض دستگیره پنجره افزایش زیبایی پنجره: دستگیره جدید می‌تواند ظاهر پنجره شما را زیباتر کند. افزایش امنیت: دستگیره‌های جدید معمولاً دارای سیستم قفل شدن قوی‌تری هستند. رفع مشکلات عملکردی: اگر دستگیره قدیمی شما خراب شده است، تعویض آن می‌تواند مشکل را برطرف کند. جمع‌بندی

انتخاب دستگیره پنجره مناسب، به شما کمک می‌کند تا یک پنجره زیبا، کارآمد و ایمن داشته باشید. با توجه به نکات ذکر شده در این مقاله، می‌توانید دستگیره مناسب برای پنجره خود را انتخاب کنید.

برای کسب اطلاعات بیشتر و مشاهده تصاویر انواع دستگیره پنجره، می‌توانید به فروشگاه‌های لوازم ساختمانی و سایت‌های فروش آنلاین مراجعه کنید.

Table Of Content

• Content

• Conclusion

• FAQ

• You May Also Like

• External Links

Introduction

The Lightning Network is a payment protocol that operates on top of the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin is a digital currency that enables peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries. However, Bitcoin transactions can be slow and expensive due to network congestion. The Lightning Network addresses these issues by enabling faster and cheaper transactions through payment channels.

The Lightning Network

The Lightning Network is a layer-two scaling solution for the Bitcoin network that aims to make transactions faster and cheaper. By creating off-chain payment channels between two parties, the Lightning Network enables instant transactions with low fees. These payment channels can be kept open for as long as needed, allowing users to conduct multiple transactions without needing to confirm each transaction on the main Bitcoin blockchain.

Bitcoin and supermarkets

Bitcoin presents a potential new payment option for supermarkets that could provide benefits such as reduced transaction fees and increased security. However, there are some challenges to using Bitcoin as a payment option, including low adoption rates and slow transaction times. Additionally, supermarkets must have the technical infrastructure in place to accept Bitcoin payments, which may require investment in new hardware and software.

Despite the challenges, there has been some interest from supermarkets in accepting Bitcoin payments. For example, some supermarkets in Venezuela have started accepting Bitcoin as a way to mitigate the impact of hyperinflation on their business. In addition, some supermarkets in developed countries have begun exploring the use of Bitcoin as a payment option, although adoption rates are still relatively low.

Lightning Network and supermarkets:

The Lightning Network can help overcome some of the challenges associated with using Bitcoin as a payment option in supermarkets. With the Lightning Network, supermarkets can facilitate fast and affordable transactions that are processed off-chain, reducing transaction times and fees. This can make Bitcoin a more practical payment option for supermarkets and customers.

Lightning Network Making Bitcoin Payment Option For Supermarket

Some supermarkets around the world have already started accepting Bitcoin payments through the Lightning Network. For example, a supermarket in Brazil called Oásis Supermercados allows customers to pay with Bitcoin using the Lightning Network. Similarly, a supermarket in Ljubljana, Slovenia called Tuš Supermarket has also enabled Bitcoin payments using the Lightning Network.

Case Study: Supermarket Accepting Bitcoin with Lightning Network

One example of a supermarket accepting Bitcoin payments through the Lightning Network is Oásis Supermercados in Brazil. Customers can pay with Bitcoin by scanning a QR code at the checkout, and the transaction is completed instantly with low fees. The supermarket has reportedly seen an increase in sales since introducing Bitcoin payments, as it has attracted new customers who are interested in using cryptocurrencies.

Another example of a supermarket accepting Bitcoin payments through the Lightning Network is Tuš Supermarket in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The supermarket has enabled Bitcoin payments through a partnership with Eligma, a company that provides cryptocurrency payment solutions. Customers can pay with Bitcoin using a mobile app, and the transaction is processed instantly with low fees.

Conclusion

The Lightning Network is making Bitcoin a practical payment option for supermarkets by enabling fast and affordable transactions. With the Lightning Network, supermarkets can accept Bitcoin payments without worrying about slow transaction times and high fees. While still in its early stages, the Lightning Network has the potential to revolutionize the retail industry by providing a practical payment option for customers who want to use Bitcoin.

FAQ

What is the Lightning Network? The Lightning Network is a layer-two scaling solution for the Bitcoin network that enables faster and cheaper transactions by creating off-chain payment channels between two parties.

Are there any supermarkets that currently accept Bitcoin payments through the Lightning Network? Yes, there are a few examples of supermarkets around the world that have started accepting Bitcoin payments through the Lightning Network, including Oásis Supermercados in Brazil and Tuš Supermarket in Slovenia.

What are some of the challenges associated with using Bitcoin payments in supermarkets? Some of the challenges associated with using Bitcoin payments in supermarkets include low adoption rates, slow transaction times, and the need for technical infrastructure to accept Bitcoin payments.

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Hardinfo is a nice GUI tool for displaying hardware and system information. It has the look and feel of MS's device manager.

So if you don't feel like memorizing a bunch of command line commands, such as lspci (list pci devices), lsmod (list kernel moduels), or neofetch (Computer summary). you can install hardinfo and give it a spin. Although, NeoFetch is kinda fun.

Hardinfo should be in the default repositories. To install it on Debian based distros you would type:

sudo apt install hardinfo

Once installed, you can search for it the normal way using the taskbar search. When you search for "hardinfo" . . it may show up as "System Profiler"

Unlike MS's device manager, You CANNOT edit hardware settings with hardinfo. You can only read the system info.

This "Learn Ubuntu Mate" website is a good overview of hardinfo, with lots of screenshots.

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Hardinfo #LinuxSystemTools #LinuxSystemInformation #SystemTools

It is a certificate that can be verified as coming from a trusted source. They also come with an encryption key pair, or a public and a private key, just like PGP and GPG used for emails and other encryption needs.

How is the SSL certificate used?

1. Browser connects to a website that is secured with SSL. Browser requests that the server identify itself.

2. Server sends a copy of its SSL Certificate, including the server’s public key.

3. Browser checks the certificate root against a list of trusted CAs that it is valid for the website that it is connecting to. If trustworthy it creates, encrypts, and sends back a symmetric session key using the server’s public key.

4. Server decrypts the symmetric session key using its private key and sends back an acknowledgement encrypted with the session key to start the encrypted session.

5. Server and Browser now encrypt all transmitted data with the session key.

You can get more info 👉 here.

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SSLCertificate #WhatIsSSLCertificate #Security #Privacy

Projects

noStrudel

• Added support for creating, viewing, and editing Wiki pages
• Added NIP-42 Auth support
• Added support for @snort/worker-relay (WASM SQLite relay) thanks to nostr:npub1v0lxxxxutpvrelsksy8cdhgfux9l6a42hsj2qzquu2zk7vc9qnkszrqj49 for building the library
• Added support for uploading files to Blossom servers
• Added support for restoring broken images using users Blossom servers
• Added support for using Citrine as local cache relay on mobile
• Fixes and improvement for NIP-46 support to work better with Amber
• Replaced all proprietary relay code with nostr-tools
• Added Task Manager for debugging and better insight under the hood

Blossom

• Rewrote and organized the spec into a simpler core spec and multiple optional specs ( BUDs )
• Setup awesome-blossom repo for tracking Blossom implementations
• Rebuilt blossom-server and added a simple admin dashboard
• Added fancy landing page to blossom-server for uploading and mirror blobs
• Improved documentation for blossom-server-sdk ( A TS library with components for building a blossom server )
• Improved documentation and lots of small fixes for blossom-client-sdk ( A TS library to help nostr clients interact with Blossom servers )

Plans for Q3

Hopefully this isn't too ambitious and I can finish at least half of these ideas

noStrudel

• Finish building out wiki features (author profiles, better editing and fork UI)
• Overhaul user profile view to show more recent activity and make it easier to see what a user has been doing
• Continue experimenting with WebRTC relays
• Build a profile picture cashing service that resizes and stores images on Blossom servers and publishes nostr events for interoperability
• Add support for .i2p and .onion relays when noStrudel is installed on Umbrel or Start9

Blossom

• Write up spec for a media optimization endpoint
• Build an example media optimization endpoint in blossom-server
• Collaborate on support for payments in blossom server spec

Other stuff

• Build a proof of concept Web-of-Trust based username search
• Other secret projects...

https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/TAWP-Kirkegaard.pdf

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/623899

Ak ste v Bitcoine už nejaký ten rok, možno máte pocit, že už všetkému rozumiete a že vás nič neprekvapí. Viete čo je to peňaženka, čo je to seed a čo adresa, možno dokonca aj čo je to sha256. Ste si istí? Táto prednáška sa vám to pokúsi vyvrátiť. 🙂

EN: I created the Cosmic Drive album during the months of May - November 2023. It was a hectic period when my partner and I were dealing with the existence of our company and my subsequent hospitalization in addition to everyday joys and worries (track Appendix). The album contains a total of 9 songs, each of which is my personal statement. In each song, I left a piece of myself. The album is tuned to deeper tones, and the bass line will challenge your hi-fi system. It is very melancholic, and it may seem sad to someone, but it is not entirely so. It just tries to keep the mind focused. Therefore, it is suitable to listen to it as a whole during activities where you can think on a larger scale, such as fitness, programming, graphics, artistic activities, and more.

If you like clubby, dirty, and uncompromising sound at 117-124 BPM, deep, tech, minimal, you will definitely enjoy it.

I am convinced that listening to it will inspire you, and you will find a solution to the problem you are currently working on.

SK: Album Cosmic Drive bol vytvorený v priebehu mesiacov máj - november 2023. V hektickom období, keď som spoločne s mojou polovičkou okrem každodenných radostí a starostí riešil aj existenciu našej firmy a moju následnú hospitalizáciu v nemocnici (track Apendix). Obsahuje celkom 9 skladieb. Každá je mojou osobnou výpoveďou. V každej som nechal kúsok seba. Je ladený do hlbších tónov - basová linka dá zabrať vášmu hi-fi aparátu. Je veľmi melancholický, niekomu sa môže zdať že je smutný, ale nie je to celkom tak. Snaží sa len udržať myseľ sústredenú. Preto je vhodné ho počúvať ako celok pri činnostiach, kde viete premýšľať škálovane. Fitness, programovanie, grafika, umelecká činnosť a iné.

Pokiaľ máte radi klubový, špinavý a nekompromisný zvuk pri 117-124 BPM, deep, tech, minimal, určite sa neurazíte.

Som presvedčený že Vás jeho počúvanie inšpiruje a nájdete riešenie problému pre to, na čom práve pracujete.

This single features two tracks from producer Deepologic, tuned to deephouse, experimental house. Deepologic is known for his melancholic moods, with a powerful bassline and an uncompromising kick. The track "Blindness" will not offend any proper DJ's. Play it while you're out for a morning run, programming or cooking.

"From K to D" is a long track. The main line consists of a synthesizer melody and a colorful bass line. It will hypnotize you

Enjoy melancholic melodies on the wave of deephouse. This single is dedicated to my two children. They are brothers with everything that goes with it. With love and hate, they are exploring this world.

The second EP I self-released is symbolically titled "And My". It contains 4 original songs that I created during the months of March to June in the year of Mr. 2023. Enjoy, Thank you for all your support.

Cover designed by Deepologic All rights reserved. EarsDepp Records. Made in Slovakia. Mastering by Dubwise Records CEO/Founder: Deepologic EarsDeep Records, 2023 EDR-001 credits released March 2, 2023

With the announcement of privacy focused company Proton releasing a bitcoin only wallet, privacy advocates and influences are complaining about the choice of bitcoin and no plans for Monero.

I'm curious what stackers think are the negatives of monero. I'm not looking for the maxi take here. No straw men. Lets be fair. Monero as a project has made different choices from bitcoin. There are decisions that were made and different tradeoffs that do make monero more private than bitcoin. That's not really the question. The question is, why are these decisions problems? And what are the problems with monero?

• The best answers get big zaps.
• Links to well written comparisons to tradeoffs with bitcoin will also get big zaps from me.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/623536

If we want to find God’s definition of marriage, we want to start at the beginning. As the song from “The Sound of Music” says,

"Let's start at the very beginning.
A very good place to start.
When you read you begin withA, B, C."

With God’s word, we start with Genesis. The foundation for almost every principle in the Bible is found in Genesis. (Which is one of many reasons to take Genesis literally. If we don’t we lose the entire foundation of the Gospel)

What is Marriage?

Even before we get the definition of marriage, we need God’s definition (and creation) of man and woman.

Then God said, “Let Us make man in Our image, according to Our likeness; and let them rule over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the sky and over the cattle and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” God created man in His own image, in the image of God He created him; male and female He created them. 28God blessed them; and God said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it; and rule over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the sky and over every living thing that moves on the earth.” (Genesis 1:26-28) {emphasis mine}

To begin to understand marriage, we have to know what makes up marriage. Marriage is made up of one male and one female created by God for a purpose. What was that purpose? The purpose of the human couple was to “Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it.”

This purpose is stated more than once in the Bible. It is stated at creation as shown above. It is stated twice immediately after Noah exited the Ark at the end of the flood. “And God blessed Noah and his sons and said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth.” (Genesis 9:1) and “As for you, be fruitful and multiply; Populate the earth abundantly and multiply in it.” (Genesis 9:7) Late in Jacob’s life, when God changed his name to Israel,

“God also said to him,“I am God Almighty;Be fruitful and multiply;A nation and a company of nations shall come from you,And kings shall come forth from you.The land which I gave to Abraham and Isaac,I will give it to you,And I will give the land to your descendants after you.” (Genesis 35:11-12) {emphasis mine}

Even much later in Israel’s history, Jeremiah is told by God,

“Then I Myself will gather the remnant of My flock out of all the countries where I have driven them and bring them back to their pasture, and they will be fruitful and multiply.” (Jeremiah 23:3)

Being fruitful, multiplying, and filling the Earth has been God’s will and command since the beginning of time.

In Genesis 2, God gives a description of the first marriage and why He created and prescribed it.

Then the Lord God said, “It is not good for the man to be alone; I will make him a helper suitable for him.” Out of the ground the Lord God formed every beast of the field and every bird of the sky, and brought them to the man to see what he would call them; and whatever the man called a living creature, that was its name. The man gave names to all the cattle, and to the birds of the sky, and to every beast of the field, but for Adam there was not found a helper suitable for him. So the Lord God caused a deep sleep to fall upon the man, and he slept; then He took one of his ribs and closed up the flesh at that place. The Lord God fashioned into a woman the rib which He had taken from the man, and brought her to the man. The man said,

“This is now bone of my bones,
And flesh of my flesh;
She shall be called Woman,
Because she was taken out of Man.”

For this reason a man shall leave his father and his mother, and be joined to his wife; and they shall become one flesh. And the man and his wife were both naked and were not ashamed. (Genesis 2:18-25) {emphasis mine}

God, as a triune God, understands that it is not good to be alone. As God is the unified three persons, the Father, the Son (Jesus), and the Holy Spirit and as they work together with one will, so God intends the man and woman to become one flesh and to work together with one will. No one (human) can truly be successful if he is alone. God created a helper for the man, Adam, to aid him in obeying God’s command to “Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it.” The husband and wife are called to work together to obey God’s will.

God says that His institute of marriage will cause the man to “be joined to his wife; and they shall become one flesh.” The will be inseparably one just as the Trinity is inseparably one God while still being 3 persons.

Also listen to the last statement in this passage, “And the man and his wife were both naked and were not ashamed.” In a perfect, Godly marriage, the man and woman should be so much one flesh that they can be naked, physically and emotionally, and not be ashamed. True, with the sin nature we all have today, this is never 100% lived out, but if we are living according to the will of God and trusting in His righteousness, we can approach this ideal as it was originally in the Garden of Eden.

The God Prescribed Organization of Marriage

For any group of people to act in concert, the group needs an organization of the roles of each person in the group. Sometimes this is a formal list of roles. Sometimes everyone just naturally takes a role and works together, but there is always some kind of role. (Even the Father, Son, and Spirit have different roles within the Godhead.) God has prescribed the man to be the leader, provider, and protector in marriage (family). He has prescribed the woman to be the helper, the nurturer, and the homemaker.

Unfortunately, in today’s culture, God’s command that the man be the leader is not taken very well and is misinterpreted and misapplied by both men and women. To often this interpreted to mean that the man has more value and more importance than the woman. This is a complete lie.

This passage is talking about how all Christians are given different spiritual gifts, but we are all part of the body and all parts are necessary for the body to work properly. In the same way, in a marriage or family, all members have different gifts, skills, and responsibilities, but all are necessary for the marriage or family to work together for the good of the family and for God’s will.

For even as the body is one and yet has many members, and all the members of the body, though they are many, are one body, so also is Christ. For by one Spirit we were all baptized into one body, whether Jews or Greeks, whether slaves or free, and we were all made to drink of one Spirit.

For the body is not one member, but many. If the foot says, “Because I am not a hand, I am not a part of the body,” it is not for this reason any the less a part of the body. And if the ear says, “Because I am not an eye, I am not a part of the body,” it is not for this reason any the less a part of the body. If the whole body were an eye, where would the hearing be? If the whole were hearing, where would the sense of smell be? But now God has placed the members, each one of them, in the body, just as He desired. If they were all one member, where would the body be? But now there are many members, but one body. And the eye cannot say to the hand, “I have no need of you”; or again the head to the feet, “I have no need of you.” On the contrary, it is much truer that the members of the body which seem to be weaker are necessary; and those members of the body which we deem less honorable, on these we bestow more abundant honor, and our less presentable members become much more presentable, whereas our more presentable members have no need of it. But God has so composed the body, giving more abundant honor to that member which lacked, so that there may be no division in the body, but that the members may have the same care for one another. And if one member suffers, all the members suffer with it; if one member is honored, all the members rejoice with it. (1 Corinthians 12:12-26) {emphasis mine}

Just as God made the husband and wife one flesh, so also He made the Church one body. Because of this similarity, I believe this passage can be applied to marriage.

“All the members of the body, though they are many, are one body.” God has made the husband and wife one flesh or one body that should work as one to serve God and His will. Just as you take care of yourself and your body, so you should take care of your spouse because they are one with you.

“God has placed the members, each one of them, in the body, just as He desired.” Just as God puts members of the church in the positions He desires: “And He gave some as apostles, and some as prophets, and some as evangelists, and some as pastors and teachers,” (Ephesians 4:11) so He also puts the husband and the wife in the position He desires. (We will get more into this below.)

“The members of the body which seem to be weaker are necessary; and those members of the body which we deem less honorable, on these we bestow more abundant honor.” Many people, especially women, resent that the husband is put in authority over the woman. They think this makes a woman have less honor, or even worse, make her the husband’s property. This is definitely not what God desires. God actually expects a husband to treat his wife with great respect and honor and punishes a husband who fails to do so. “You husbands in the same way, live with your wives in an understanding way, as with someone weaker, since she is a woman; and show her honor as a fellow heir of the grace of life, so that your prayers will not be hindered.” (1 Peter 3:7) A wise husband will always seek his wife’s advice, especially when it is an area where she excels and he does not, but when you have a group, you always need someone to make the final decision when an agreement cannot be reached. This responsibility lies with the husband. This is not an easy burden.

“So that there may be no division in the body, but that the members may have the same care for one another.” God gives each member of the family different responsibilities so they can care for each other, not compete with each other, and so “there may be no division.” Have you ever had several people trying to complete the same task, at the same time, and in the same small space? Everyone is stepping on each other and grabbing things at the same time, and getting in each others way. It works much better if you divide the whole task into multiple smaller tasks where each person has their own task to complete and then things are brought together to complete the overall task. This is God’s design for marriage. He made man and woman to complement each other. He made them so the whole (marriage) is greater than the parts (the man and woman). This is God’s perfect design.

God’s Role for Wives

Don’t shoot the messenger, but this is what God says:

Wives, be subject to your own husbands, as to the Lord. For the husband is the head of the wife, as Christ also is the head of the church, He Himself being the Savior of the body. But as the church is subject to Christ, so also the wives ought to be to their husbands in everything. (Ephesians 5:22-24)

God clearly tells women to “be subject to your own husbands, as to the Lord.” If you notice, it says to “be subject to your own husbands.” It does not say that all women are subject to all men. It is not devaluing women. It is defining the design of marriage and the family so it functions as God designed.

If you are a young woman who is not yet married, this should be a wakeup call in your search for a husband. You are commanded “be subject to your own husbands, as to the Lord.” Too often women marry a man because of his looks, his money (ability to provide), or because they want to “mother” and “fix” him. They marry the man because he “needs” me. This is unwise. If you are dating a man or considering marrying a man, can you imagine continually submitting to him? If not, you may want to reconsider your relationship.

When I was young and single, I wasn’t actively searching for a husband, but I had a rule for myself. If I ever reached the point in my relationship with a man that I realized I could never marry him, I would immediately end the relationship even if it was enjoyable at the time. I didn’t want to form an attachment to someone who would be a bad husband, or even just a bad husband for me.

For those women who are already married, you don’t have this option. You are called to submit. You may ask, “Is there any time in which you would be called to not submit to your husband?” Yes, but be careful. If you are truly being called to disobey God’s clear commands, you should definitely obey God rather than man, but make sure you don’t use this freedom to disobey when there is a preference involved, even if that is a Godly preference.

In the same way, you wives, be submissive to your own husbands so that even if any of them are disobedient to the word, they may be won without a word by the behavior of their wives, as they observe your chaste and respectful behavior. (1 Peter 31-2)

This could be an opportunity to win your husband for Christ or to bring him back to Christ, if he has just drifted away.

Especially if you have a godless or disobedient husband, this command to submit will be difficult, but the best things in life usually are difficult. You will be blessed by God for being a Godly wife.

If you are like me, the wife of a Godly husband who lives his life by God’s command and takes his role as the Godly role model seriously, you are truly blessed. Don’t forget this blessing and dwell on any particular small faults. Lift him up and praise him for his Godly traits and you will likely see them grow and bloom.

God’s Role for Husbands

Technically, husbands have higher and harder responsibilities than wives.

Husbands, love your wives, just as Christ also loved the church and gave Himself up for her, so that He might sanctify her, having cleansed her by the washing of water with the word, that He might present to Himself the church in all her glory, having no spot or wrinkle or any such thing; but that she would be holy and blameless. So husbands ought also to love their own wives as their own bodies. He who loves his own wife loves himself; for no one ever hated his own flesh, but nourishes and cherishes it, just as Christ also does the church, (Ephesians 5:25-29)

Husbands are called to “love your wives, just as Christ also loved the church.” This is a high bar to meet. Husbands you are to have the love of Christ in every thing you do for, to, and with your wife. You are to put your wife before yourself just as “[Jesus] gave Himself up for her [the church].”

Just as submitting is not easy, putting another’s good before your own is not easy. Ironically the best way to accomplish this isn’t by focusing totally on your wife. It is by focusing totally on God and His will. If you have totally submitted to God’s will and are trusting in His plan, He will enable you to have the love of Christ and to love your wife as yourself. (This also helps wives to submit to their husbands.) If you have totally submitted to God, this will enable you to love your family and be the Godly leader God has called you to be.

Circling Back to the Beginning for God’s Blessing

Because we are members of His body. For this reason a man shall leave his father and mother and shall be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh. This mystery is great; but I am speaking with reference to Christ and the church. Nevertheless, each individual among you also is to love his own wife even as himself, and the wife must see to it that she respects her husband. (Ephesians 5:30-33)

Do you remember what we learned in Genesis at the beginning of this article? We learned that, “a man shall leave his father and mother and shall be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh.” God’s creation and design of man and woman are the basis for the whole design of marriage described in the New Testament.

Also notice the comparison between marriage and the Church. “Because we are members of His body. For this reason a man shall leave his father and mother and shall be joined to his wife, and the two shall become one flesh.” Just as a husband and wife become one flesh in marriage, so also all Christians become one body with Christ. God joins us together so we can experience a tiny hint of what He is in the Trinity. Just as God is 3 persons in 1 God, so also a husband and wife become one flesh in marriage and the Church becomes one body in Jesus. We gain a closeness that cannot be achieved through any human means.

Don’t allow culture and our own feelings/opinions to redefine marriage and destroy the blessing that God has given us.

Trust Jesus.

Bible verses are NASB (New American Standard Bible) 1995 edition unless otherwise stated.

*** Interesting Side Issue ***

I just read an article about a newish AI, Perplexity.ai that does a good job giving you the truth and gives references to where it found information. It also suggests additional, related subjects to investigate.

I do not use AI to help write my articles, but having just written this one, I asked Perplexity, "What does the Bible say about the purpose and design of marriage?" This was its response (and I was impressed):

Answer

According to the Bible, God designed marriage with several key purposes:

1. Companionship and partnership: God created marriage to provide companionship, stating "It is not good for man to be alone" (Genesis 2:18). Marriage is meant to be a unique union between a man and a woman where they become "one flesh" (Genesis 2:24).
2. Procreation and raising children: One purpose of marriage is to "be fruitful and multiply" (Genesis 1:28). The sexual union in marriage was designed in part to bring forth children who are to be raised "in the nurture and admonition of the Lord" (Ephesians 6:4).
3. Spiritual intimacy and growth: Marriage provides an opportunity for a couple to pursue God together and help each other grow spiritually. It allows spouses to model God's love and forgiveness to each other.
4. Reflecting God's relationship with His people: Marriage is meant to be a picture of God's covenant relationship with believers. Throughout Scripture, marriage imagery is used to describe God's love for Israel and Christ's love for the Church (Ephesians 5:31-32).
5. Mutual support and sanctification: The challenges and joys of marriage are meant to draw spouses closer to God and make them more holy. Spouses are to help steer each other toward God. Glorifying God: Ultimately, marriage is designed to bring glory to God by reflecting His character and love to the world. A godly marriage can be a powerful witness.
6. The Bible emphasizes that marriage is God's idea and design, not a human invention. It is meant to be a lifelong, exclusive covenant between one man and one woman. While personal happiness is not the primary purpose, a marriage that follows God's design can lead to deep fulfillment as couples grow together in faith and love.

Related

• How does the Bible describe the roles of husband and wife
• What does the Bible say about the purpose of marriage in the New Testament
• How does the Bible compare marriage to the relationship between God and His people
• What are the main differences between God's design for marriage and modern views
• How does the Bible address the issue of divorce within marriage

The related items are suggested follow up queries related to the question asked. I was shocked at how well the AI did. Although I would never fully trust AI to give me Biblical answers, it looks like this AI could be useful to start research on the topic.

FYI, my copy doesn't have the links to sources that the AI gives because that was too much work to implement easily in my NOSTR editor.

I spent the last weekend at a cabin for a family reunion. I ended up playing 3 games of D&D with my nieces/nephews/cousins.

Game 1: The Book

The first game I played was a continuation of a campaign that started a few years ago (at this same cabin) at the start of the game with my older nephews (I think they were 5-9 at the time if I remember). To summarize the campaign so far: they were betrayed by a warlock named Malgrith during their first adventure, and he's shown up a few times since. Most recently they saw an illusion of him speaking with the Goblin Queen, telling her to "Find the Book if you know what's good for you." In that illusion they noticed a distinct change in him, he was missing his left eye (well-informed readers will know what this portends, others may wish to read on and be informed).

The party found a map in the Goblin Cave which had a few locations marked and crossed out. Notably, the Old Orchard Manor was circled and they decided to head there. They burned the house to the ground (because they are hooligans), defeated the specter, and found a Black Book in the ashes of the library. They briefly looked inside the book and were disgusted by its contents. This was the last session we played before regrouping at the cabin. I thought they had decided against reading the book, but I was wrong.

The first thing Louther the druid did once they got to town was read the book. If you haven't guessed yet, this is the Book of Vile Darkness. We rolled for his effects, notably aged 20 years, died from the shock, and came back as a Wight. So I had him sit by me behind the DM Screen. The other party members (Bob the Barbarian, and Lex the Archer) heard rumors of sounds coming from the crypt and went to investigate.

They went two rooms in and found some ghouls, fought them, and decided to turn back ignoring the newly dug tunnel. However, Louther had already gone down that road. There was a team sent by Malgrith to search for the eye of Vecna, which they found at the bottom of the dungeon. When one of the goblins grabbed the eye, a glyph carved into its shoulder began to glow and Malgrith burst out of his chest, grabbed the eye, and sighed happily. Louther witnessed this while hidden.

I decided to call the session there and pulled aside Louther's player to talk about what he learned in the book. So I taught my nephew about Vecna, the Eye and Hand, and why Malgrith wants them. We're deciding whether he's going to return to the party to try to use them to acquire the Hand and Eye or try to join Malgrith.

Game 2: Serpent's Isle

This is the game that I did a Let's Prep for. Look into that for a few more details. The party was my young niece and nephew. She decided to use one of the pre-made characters (elf fighter), he decided to be a dwarf barbarian.

They arrived at the jungle island, and as they approached they saw a trail of smoke from Covewatch Point, or the rock formation, Devil's Spire. They decided to push through the jungle toward the Spire.

As they traveled the barbarian got stuck in quicksand, and while they were trying to get him unstuck, a boa dropped from the trees overhead onto the fighter. They managed to take care of the snake and dig the dwarf out of the mud.

Eventually, they made it to the spire fought the Spined Devil, and killed it. The fighter ended up at 1 hit point for a round until she remembered her Second Wind ability. They pushed into the spire, fought the Lemures, and then wanted to take a break and play with cousins.

Game 3: Wild in the Street

My cousin (16) wanted to play D&D the whole weekend, but I prioritized the kids' games first (partly because I had already prepped before the vacation). So I went to Adventure Lookup and found this one-shot adventure to play. Another cousin was interested and I roped my brother-in-law in, but that night we started pretty late and they had to get to bed and couldn't make it. It was one of my first times running a solo adventure and it went pretty well.

He said he wanted a strong character, so I had him roll 4d6, re-roll 1s, and drop the lowest for stats. I had him roll 7 times take the best 6 and place them where he wanted. He didn't roll over a 13. So that character was eaten by a red dragon during character creation. So we tried again, as the son of the original character. Same result. So that character was likewise eaten by the same red dragon during character creation. The third time's the charm, the twin brother of the second character. He finally rolled a couple of 14s and ended up with a playable character: Forson the Rogue.

He was at the tavern in the border town of Thenwick (an Ilitian town near Idreal in my world) enjoying a mug of ale out of the rain. The door burst open and three men entered, one colorfully dressed man was dragged in with his arm behind his back. The leader of the group steps forward and introduced himself as the captain of the Thenwick guard. The colorful man (whose name is Jeggard) owned a menagerie and crashed his wagons. The captain was offering gold in exchange for collecting the animals before they could cause too much of a disturbance.

Jeggard described his animals as a black panther cub (displacer beast), a dire armadillo (anklyosaurus) and a manticore (rust monster). Forson found the "panther" quickly as it chases a series of stray cats out of a nearby alley. He rolled very well to grab it and managed to bring it back to the inn as Captain Bulrick took Jeggard to the guardhouse.

The "dire armadillo" was also pretty easy to find, it had broken into a barn and was eating the feed. He went back to town and bought some apples to entice it back. It worked too well. The dinosaur almost trampled him in its exuberance for apples. Forson ran all the way back to the guardhouse, with a giant vegetarian puppy ~~nearly trampling~~ following him. At the last second he scattered the apples into the air to distract the anklyosaurus long enough that the guards could help contain it.

Then he heard a disturbance at the town smithy and rushed to it. There he found the smith pushing back an insectoid monster with a stick (the destroyed remnants of a sledge hammer). Forson stabbed it, rusting his short sword and chasing it off.

He chased it into the dark night. I ran it as a skill challenge, which he failed so the monster was going to find him when he was unprepared. During the chase he realized that even though it couldn't see or hear him, it could smell the metal he was carrying. So he decided to cook up something with a string smell to cover his tracks (he took proficiency in chef's tools).

While making his stinky soup the rust monster smelled the soup pot and burst into the kitchen attacking him. Forson scored a critical hit and dropped it. He went back to the guard house and collected his bounty and we wrapped up the adventure.

Bojovať s rakovinou metabolickou metódou znamená použiť metabolizmus tela proti rakovine. Riadenie cukru a ketónov v krvi stravou a pohybom, časovanie rôznych typov cvičení, včasná kombinácia klasickej onko-liečby a hladovania. Ktoré vitamíny a suplementy prijímam a ktorým sa napríklad vyhýbam dajúc na rady mojej dietologičky z USA Miriam (ktorá sa špecializuje na rakovinu).

Hovori sa, že čo nemeriame, neriadime ... Ja som meral, veľa a dlho ... aj grafy budú ... aj sranda bude, hádam ... 😉

Table Of Content

• Content

• Conclusion

• FAQ

• You May Also Like

• External Links

Introduction

In recent years, Bitcoin has gained popularity as a decentralized digital currency that operates without the need for a central authority. While it has its share of skeptics and detractors, the potential of Bitcoin to help bridge economic gaps in developing countries cannot be denied. In this blog, we'll explore how Bitcoin is connecting people and economies in developing countries.

How Bitcoin is Connecting People and Economies in Developing Countries

Financial Inclusion

In many developing countries, a large percentage of the population is unbanked. This means that they don't have access to traditional banking services, such as savings accounts, loans, and credit cards. Bitcoin offers a solution to this problem, as all that's needed to use it is a smartphone and an internet connection. This means that people who were previously excluded from the financial system can now participate in it.

Remittances

Remittances, or the money that migrant workers send back to their home countries, are a vital source of income for many families in developing countries. However, traditional remittance services can be slow and expensive, with high fees and long processing times. Bitcoin offers a faster, cheaper, and more secure way to send money across borders. This means that families can receive more money, more quickly, and with lower fees.

E-commerce E-commerce is growing rapidly in developing countries, but traditional payment methods can be a barrier to entry. Credit cards, for example, are not widely used in many parts of the world. Bitcoin offers a solution, as it can be used to make payments online without the need for a traditional bank account or credit card.

Investment

Bitcoin offers a new investment opportunity for people in developing countries. With traditional investment options often limited, Bitcoin provides a way to invest in a decentralized currency that has the potential to appreciate in value. This can help people to build wealth and secure their financial futures.

Economic Growth

By enabling financial inclusion, remittances, e-commerce, and investment, Bitcoin has the potential to spur economic growth in developing countries. It can help to create new business opportunities, increase the flow of money, and stimulate innovation.

Challenges and Risks

While Bitcoin offers many potential benefits for developing countries, there are also risks and challenges to consider. The volatility of Bitcoin's value, for example, can make it a risky investment. In addition, the lack of regulation and oversight can make it more susceptible to fraud and scams.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has the potential to bridge economic gaps in developing countries by offering financial inclusion, faster and cheaper remittances, e-commerce opportunities, and investment options. However, it's important to carefully consider the risks and challenges, and to work towards creating a safe and regulated environment for its use. With the right approach, Bitcoin could help to create a more connected and prosperous world.

FAQ

How is Bitcoin bridging the gap in developing countries? Bitcoin is helping to connect people and economies in developing countries by providing access to financial services and facilitating cross-border transactions.

Why is access to financial services important in developing countries? Many people in developing countries do not have access to traditional financial services, such as bank accounts or credit cards, which can limit their ability to participate in the global economy.

How does Bitcoin facilitate cross-border transactions? Bitcoin can be used to send and receive money across borders quickly and at a lower cost than traditional remittance services. This can help to reduce the cost of sending money home for migrant workers.

Are there any challenges to using Bitcoin in developing countries? Yes, there are challenges to using Bitcoin in developing countries, such as limited internet access and the lack of a legal framework for digital currencies in some countries.

That's all for today

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Predikčné trhy predstavujú praktický spôsob, ako môžeme nahliadnuť do budúcnosti bez nutnosti spoliehať sa na tradičné, často nepresné metódy, ako je veštenie z kávových zrniek. V prezentácii sa ponoríme do histórie a vývoja predikčných trhov, a popíšeme aký vplyv mali a majú na dostupnosť a kvalitu informácií pre širokú verejnosť, a ako menia trh s týmito informáciami. Pozrieme sa aj na to, ako tieto trhy umožňujú obyčajným ľuďom prístup k spoľahlivým predpovediam a ako môžu prispieť k lepšiemu rozhodovaniu v rôznych oblastiach života.

Store of wealth / value คือสิ่งที่เราได้ยินบ่อยๆ เราทราบกันดีว่า value หรือ ความมีค่านั้นจริงๆ ขึ้นกับสิ่งอื่น (ปรุงแต่งมาจากข้อมูลอื่น) ขึ้นกับเหตุและปัจจัย เป็น subjective value และเราลงทุนเพื่อความมั่งคั่ง ร่ำรวย

สิ่งที่มนุษย์ปรารถนาตามลำดับ ลาภ > ยศ > สรรเสริญ > สุข ลาภ = มั่งคั่ง ร่ำรวย ยศ = ความเป็นใหญ่ สรรเสริญ = การกล่าวคำยกย่อง เชิดชู ความสุข = สิ่งสุดท้ายที่เราปรารถนา

ในโลกนี้ เรารู้ว่า Bitcoin คือ store of value ที่เอาชนะเวลา เอาชนะ inflation เราไม่เก็บเป็น fiat เพราะมันเสื่อมค่า

คนอื่น หาเช้ากินค่ำ แต่คนฉลาด หาเช้ากิน 100 ปี แสนล้านปีข้างหน้า (เขารู้ value ที่แท้จริงของการลงทุน)

แล้วชีวิตเราล่ะ การลงทุนของชีวิต อะไรคือสิ่งที่มีค่า ?

สมมติถ้าเราไม่ได้เกิดเป็นคนล่ะ.. เทวดา ต้องการรัศมี สุนัข ต้องการกระดูก ในนรก ต้องการส่วนบุญ ในสวรรค์ ต้องการบารมี ที่กล่าวมานี้ไม่มีใครต้องการเงินทองเลย

เราเคยคิดว่าชีวิตนึงของคนสั้นแค่ 70-80 ปี แต่ในความเป็นจริงแล้ว เราอยู่ในจักรวาลอันกว้างใหญ่ (time and space) ที่เวลาในชีวิตหาจุดเริ่มต้นไม่เจอ เพราะยาวนานมาก

เมื่อเรารู้ว่าเวลาในชีวิตมันยาวนาน เราจะเริ่มสร้าง ‘ทานและบารมี’

'บารมี' คือ สิ่งที่มีค่าที่สุดในชีวิต และทำให้เราหลุดพ้นจากการเวียนว่ายตายเกิด

ทาน vs ทานบารมี
ทานบารมี มาจากจิตใจที่เป็น ‘เมตตา’ 
เมตตา คือ ปรารถนาให้เขามีความสุข
การทำทานที่มาจากเมตตา จึงเกิดบารมี
นอกจากนี้ยังต้องมีปัญญา จึงมีบารมี

เมตตาที่เป็นบารมี ทานจะมีผลมาก เราแผ่เมตตาตอนทำทาน จะเกิดทานบารมีไปเรื่อยๆ ละโลภ โกรธ หลง และทานบารมีอันสูงที่สุด จะให้ความไม่มีภัย ให้ชีวิต ไม่ทำร้ายใครอีกต่อไป เกิดศีลที่เกิดจากความเมตตา ศีลที่ยังไงก็ไม่ฆ่าสัตว์ คือ ‘ศีลบารมี’

เมื่อเข้าใจที่กล่าวมาข้างต้น เราจะเข้าใจว่าอะไรมีค่า ไม่ใช่การทำบุญอย่างเดียว เพียงพิจารณาทาน ศีล การสวดมนต์ไหว้พระ การระลึกถึงพระพุทธเจ้า ฯลฯ ไปเรื่อยๆ อย่างน้อยก็ใช้ชีวิตแบบไม่ประมาทแล้ว

สรุป คือ..

เราควรรู้ว่าอะไรมีค่า หาเหตุและผล ดำเนินชีวิตแบบพิจารณาและลงทุนอย่างเป็นระบบ* เพราะวันนึงลาภ ยศ สรรเสริญ สุข ท้ายสุดสิ่งเหล่านี้มันตามมาด้วยความเสื่อมเสมอ เสียดายเวลา และเงินก็เอาไปไม่ได้ เมื่อเราตายไป :)

siamstr

Anna pulled her daughter off the street, around the nearest corner "hush, don’t talk like that, Cela! Let’s keep moving. What if someone heard you? They could take you away from us, put you in jail or worse -"

"Who and what’s worse than jail, mama?" Cela’s innocent eyes sparkled with curiosity as she looked up at her mother. Anna pretended to look for something in her purse, trying to hide her worried look. I HAVE to convince Cela that she has to be more careful when being around other people, I have to -

Cela pulled on her mom's coat impatiently waiting for an answer "Mama? What’s worse?"

No use, I will have to tell her, but, no, she is too young to understand -

Mama, please, what is it?" Cela shook her blond braids in anticipation.

I will just have to lie to her like so many times before but - NO, I will not lie anymore! Anna sighed, let go of her purse and kneeled down. She grabbed Cela’s hands, pulled her into her lap and started whispering.

"Cela, please listen carefully. This is what my mama told me when I was only a little older than you are now." Cela’s eyes seemed to grow even bigger, hardly ever anyone talked about other family members. "Many, many years ago when you or even I weren't born yet there was - an incident. One that caused a big change. It all happened very fast and so quietly nobody noticed at first. And then it was too late."

"What was it, mama?" Interjected Cela all excitedly squirming in Anna’s lap.

"Shh, please listen, Cela, till I’m finished. Then you may ask questions". Anna ignored Cela’s disappointment and continued.

"The old government was overthrown violently and a new King claimed the crown. When people realized what was happening many started to cry out in protest. They demonstrated against the new King, some started to fight the new government covertly, some even openly. You have to know that unlike now firearms were a common thing to have at home. But the new King’s guard was too strong and too well trained, quite possibly more than just trained. Well, as we know now, they were definitely also manipulated."

"What is ‘maaa-nipppu-lated’?"

This time Anna answered patiently “it is when someone makes you do something without you realizing that it wasn’t your own idea to do so. Like, when I tell you that papa doesn’t like seeing your face all dirty, it’ll make you run to wash your face faster than if I had asked you to wash up before dinner, right? You understand that?" The spark of understanding that lit up Cela’s eyes paired with just the slightest hint of a grimace was enough of an answer.

"Alright then, where was I? Aah, yes, after a long fourteen years of civil war any opposition was either eradicated or re-educated."

Cela opened her mouth to voice another burning question but Anna raised her hand and voice just a little "hold on to that question, I know what you’re going to ask and I am getting there. Please be patient, Cela."

"Okay, mama" mumbled Cela almost inaudibly.

"During the violent demonstrations and fights the new King’s men imprisoned so many of the opposition. In the end, the few that had escaped capture moved far, far away and lived in isolation, nobody knows exactly where. Or how. Very few stayed with their families and tried to adapt to the new life. Our family stayed and we learned to live hiding - our true nature."

"But, mama, you haven’t told me yet what’s worse than jail? And, what is re-education?"

"Alright then, Cela, you are very young, you might not fully understand." Anna paused trying to come up with a way to explain it. "Imagine being taken away from papa and me and put into jail. For a specific time we’d be separated and alone but we could still see each other every now and then and exchange letters, right?" Cela nodded enthusiastically.

"Re-education" Anna continued "is when you’d be separated from us but unlike jail we would not be allowed to exchange letters let alone visit you. We would not be able to speak to or see you at all, Cela, and who knows for how long? There is no certain timing with re-education!"

Anna lowered her whisper even further and added with a heavy sigh "and who knows what they are doing to the people forced to undergo re-education training? I have heard stories that after months and even years of this training people were no longer themselves, or went crazy." Anna now whispered so quietly that Cela could barely hear her. "And some didn’t return home at all".

By now Cela sat very still. She swallowed, trying to grasp her mother's words. Her little hands clamped into fists pressed against her mouth, she looked at her mother and silently cried "but - that’s not fair that is…!"

"Shhh, shhh, Cela, I know it isn’t, but - shh, people might still hear us. Come on now, let’s go home to papa".

Anna hugged Cela tight and stroked her hair. "I hope you now understand why I couldn’t help that poor woman crying in the street seeing her son being carried away by the new King’s men. I had to protect you and our own family. We need to keep silent -"

Cela interrupted her again "but - that’s not right, mama" "

No, it isn’t right, Cela" Anna said, getting up to her feet holding on to Cela "Maybe one day it will be different but, for now, it is the law and we'll be fine as long as we conform to the law. And that means no public display of emotion".

Snap - the book, her old journal shut and Cela looked up at her audience. People of all ages and genders had gathered in the city square. Everyone was very quiet, you could hear a needle drop. Then someone started clapping. More and more followed, clapping, laughing and cheering. It went on for a full five minutes before it slowly got quiet again.

"Thank you, my friends" Cela smiled, sticking a strand of gray hair behind her ear "today, finally, it is that day my mama spoke of so many years ago when she ignited the spark in me to fight for what is right. Today is the day!” she exclaimed, raising her fist into the air. Promptly cheering started again.

“All those years ago a stranger’s tragedy and the injustice all around us directed my life to where we are now. It took us many years and lives and at times I thought we would never get it back." She had to raise her voice to be heard over all the clapping and cheering. Cela paused “and now look at us - look at all our emotions displayed in public! No-one, NO-ONE will ever take that away from us again!”

Cheers were growing louder, the crowd started stirring. “We are but few of many across the country. We are united. We will no longer be silenced - the new King is dead, long live empathy and emotion! Let’s move to the palace!”

I posted this first on my blog on the Hive blockchain but wanted to share it in the Nostrverse as well. Hope you don't mind.

Cheers, Oceanbee

Unisciti alla nostra community ed ottieni fantastici premi. 🎁

In palio per voi: 100 USDT e il Merchandise Ufficiale di Bitget! 🔹

Le regole sono semplicissime:

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3️⃣ Invita i tuoi amici per accedere ad ulteriori premi (vedi sotto).

Tra tutti i nuovi utenti che si presentano con l'hashtag #CiaoBitget verrà fatta un'estrazione❗️

10 nuovi utenti verranno selezionati per ricevere un premio da 2 a 20 USDT ciascuno.

Sei già parte della nostra community Telegram? Abbiamo pensato anche a te!

Gli utenti che inviteranno più amici riceveranno premi extra:

🥇 1° posto: 30 USDT Spot 🥈 2° posto: Nuovo Merchandise Bitget 🔹 🥉 3° - 5° posto: Sconto sulle fees di trading di 5 USDT 🕯

Il numero minimo di invitati deve essere pari o superiore a 20! 👀

⚠️ Il Giveaway termina Mercoledì 31 Luglio, 23.59 (CET) ⚠️

AI hype vnímame asi všetci okolo nás — už takmer každá appka ponúka nejakú “AI fíčuru”, AI startupy raisujú stovky miliónov a Európa ako obvykle pracuje na regulovaní a našej ochrane pred nebezpečím umelej inteligencie. Pomaly sa ale ukazuje “ovocie” spojenia umelej inteligencie a človeka, kedy mnohí ľudia reportujú signifikantné zvýšenie produktivity v práci ako aj kreatívnych aktivitách (aj napriek tomu, že mnohí hardcore kreatívci by každého pri spomenutí skratky “AI” najradšej upálili). V prvej polovici prednášky sa pozrieme na to, akými rôznymi spôsobmi nám vie byť AI nápomocná, či už v práci alebo osobnom živote.

Umelé neuróny nám už vyskakujú pomaly aj z ovsených vločiek, no to ako sa k nám dostávajú sa veľmi líši. Hlavne v tom, či ich poskytujú firmy v zatvorených alebo open-source modeloch. V druhej polovici prednášky sa pozrieme na boom okolo otvorených AI modelov a ako ich vieme využiť.

Čo vznikne keď spojíš hru SNAKE zo starej Nokie 3310 a Bitcoin? - hra Chain Duel!

Jedna z najlepších implementácií funkcionality Lightning Networku a gamingu vo svete Bitcoinu.

Vyskúšať si ju môžete s kamošmi na tomto odkaze. Na stránke nájdeš aj základné pravidlá hry avšak odporúčame pravidlá pochopiť aj priamo hraním

Chain Duel si získava hromady fanúšikov po bitcoinových konferenciách po celom svete a práve na Lunarpunk festival ho prinesieme tiež.

Multiplayer 1v1 hra, kde nejde o náhodu, ale skill, vás dostane. Poďte si zmerať sily s ďalšími bitcoinermi a vyhrať okrem samotných satoshi rôzne iné ceny.

Príďte sa zúčastniť prvého oficiálneho Chain Duel turnaja na Slovensku!

Pre účasť na turnaji je potrebná registrácia dopredu.

I finished my first round of rankings, based solely on the RotoWire depth charts and a little feedback from readers, and decided to compare them to the NFFC’s ADP, to see where my early leans differ most from the market’s.

I’m using the ADP from July 14-25 (spanning 13 RotoWire Online Championship Drafts.)

The board version looks like this:

Here are the market’s rankings side by side with mine:

Quarterback

I’m pretty much in lockstep for the top-10 QBs. I’m a little higher on Kyler Murray and lower on Joe Burrow, but if Burrow looks 100 percent healthy throughout camp, I might move him up. Murray is another year removed from the ACL tear and gets Marvin Harrison, so I’ll probably have some shares at current market prices.

Apparently, I’m a lot higher than the market on Justin Herbert. I know the Chargers plan to run more, but game situation will dictate some of that, and I’m betting on the talent and a more competent coaching staff. I’m also higher on Danny Dimes — he gets Malik Nabers, a healthy WanDale Robinson, Year 2 of Jalin Hyatt and a weaker running game. The Giants could be a pass-heavy offense, and Dimes can add points with his legs too. No reason in a 1-QB league to take Geno Smith over him, for example. Same is true for Sam Darnold — if he wins the job, he’s got elite receivers, and Darnold is also somewhat mobile. Why bother taking Geno over him in a 1-QB league where you can find a replacement for free on waivers?

I’m lower on the rookies, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Williams isn’t much of a runner, and Chicago is a terrible place for quarterbacks, the myriad weapons around him, notwithstanding. Daniels maybe I’m too low on as he’s a mobile QB and has enough weapons. I’m just bearish on the Washington offense generally.

Running Back

My top-20 looks a lot like the ADP. I’m lower on Rachaad White and Derrick Henry. White isn’t that good, so I’m worried about him being outplayed. Henry won’t catch many passes and is getting long in the tooth. I’m higher on David Montgomery — think the Lions will still get him his 200-1,000-10. Maybe he shouldn’t be ahead of Henry though. I also am higher on Zack Moss, Javonte Williams and Devin Singletary. There’s no reason Moss can’t more or less be what Joe Mixon was last year, Williams is another year removed from the ACL tear and Singletary is the only game in town on what should be an improved offense and playing for a coach who knows him and wanted to sign him.

I’m also lower on Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Zamir White. The former two were drafted in 2017 and declining, while White isn’t that good, doesn’t have a lock on the job and isn’t much of a pass catcher.

Wide Receiver

My top-eight are roughly identical to the ADP, but apparently I’m a massive outlier on Stefon Diggs who I have at No. 9, but the market has at 24! The negatives on Diggs are his age — he’s 30 now, and he fell off precipitously in the second half last year. Even so, he caught 107 passes, and the Texans traded for him with a now-restructured contract that pays him $22.5M this year, i.e., he’s getting paid like a No. 1 and is incentivized to earn a new contract next year. There’s more competition for targets in Houston, but CJ Stroud might lead the league in passing attempts too.

Accordingly, I’m lower on Nico Collins and Tank Dell who I think will lose target share to Diggs. Otherwise, it’s not too disparate. I’m lower on Michael Pittman whose role is secure, but I’m unclear on how reliable the Indy passing game will be and also George Pickens for similar reasons.

Tight End

These are pretty close if you sort by tiers. I’m higher on Dalton Kincaid who I expect to be Josh Allen’s top target and a little lower on Travis Kelce due to age-related risk. But this is mostly hair splitting. I like Jonnu Smith’s upside on the Dolphins, and it looks like I omitted Cade Otton by mistake.

Hello,

I've been using GetAlby extension to login it #Nostr sites in my browser. I was wondering what alternatives there are, and what is the most secure way or tool out there for this.

Thanks!

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/622292

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A few things are happening as of this week. First off, I have finally settled making the blog work. I figured out selective posting using tags on #Nostr. So I have from here on out all will be smooth for the blog and I won't have to tweak anything for awhile. At the same time, I tend to tweak even when tweaking isn't needed.

The really great news, I, yours truly was accepted into the Sans Veterans Cyber Academy which is outstanding. I had been planning on making a career change into the #security field. This will get me some needed certs I wouldn't be able to fund normally. I really do appreciate SANS giving me this opportunity.

Now this brings the one negative to all this. I am going to have to be a bit less #sovereign for about 10 months or so while in the Cyber Academy, they require me to use Windows, which makes sense since it's the majority of OS installs out there. And even though I could probably cheat and stay on Linux, I feel trying to make that happen will take away from study time. So I will do the unthinkable today and throw Windows back on my laptop today.

That is about it.. but great news in general.

plebone

序言：這是我在迪拜給一個私人觀眾的講話改編成的散文，之後在索非亞的一個小型會議上略作調整。我越來越覺得這篇文章值得更廣泛的讀者，並且可能更適合以文字形式呈現。目前這可能還不是最終版本，因為預期的讀者是傳統金融的資本分配者，因此很可能會在不久的將來製作成 PDF。現在，這算是初稿，練習如何以散文形式呈現，並向 Nostr 的朋友們徵求反饋。希望大家喜歡！

這篇文章的標題毫無意義。沒有“Web π”這回事，因為也沒有“Web 3”這回事。這完全是胡說八道，是騙局。

不幸的是，它變成了一個極其有影響力的胡說八道和一個極其有利可圖的騙局。因此，我寫這篇文章的目的是給讀者提供工具，以便在這一切中穿行，並能夠在未被騙的情況下度過。為了不欺騙和不胡說，我應該明確說明這篇文章的預期讀者、我為何寫這篇文章以及這篇文章真正關於什麼。

你是誰？

我假設讀者不是神秘的軟體開發者，而是金融專業人士。這篇文章並非真正針對比特幣愛好者，但如果他們閱讀，我希望他們仍然覺得有趣。我真正寫作的對象是第一次接觸這個領域的人。希望你心中想的是進入「比特幣」領域，但如果你認為自己是進入「加密貨幣」領域，那麼這篇文章可能更有用。

我是誰？

我是某公司的創始人，這讓我對於我推廣的內容不僅高度偏頗，而且還有明顯的私利。我經營一家公司，通過各種不同的方式投資於比特幣生態系統。我不會在任何細節上誤導你，我的主要動機是讓你將資金配置給我們，而不是那些我稱為騙子和胡說八道的人。你也應該聽聽他們的說法，然後自己做決定，否則這有什麼意義呢？你怎麼知道我沒有欺騙或胡說八道？沒錯。不要信任，要驗證。

無論如何，這一切都假設你想要「配置資金」，而不是直接購買比特幣而不支付管理費。我希望主要的區別在於，我會坦誠對待這一點，並鼓勵你盡可能多地了解正在發生的事情和你正在做的事情（如果你有任何不確定，我建議你還沒有準備好，應該只購買比特幣並學習），而不是用「Web 3」這樣的完全胡說八道來迷惑你。

這篇文章是關於誰？

這篇文章完全不是關於在加密貨幣領域工作的人。比特幣愛好者可能會對我對這些人角色的慷慨解釋感到輕微惱火，因為他們從我這樣的人那裡聽到的解釋可能是最寬容的。這篇文章真正關注的是金融家。它關乎那些利用開發者、學者、企業家等大多數得不到回報的努力，從你身上榨取財富以供自己使用，留下一串無用的技術和被欺騙的散戶投資者——如果你繼續賦予他們權力，他們將繼續這樣做。

為什麼寫這篇文章？

我們正處於整個「加密貨幣」行業發展的一個有趣時刻，我強烈建議像你這樣的人在未來的幾個月和幾年內將會受到各種詐騙和廢話的推銷。如果你對這些人真正在說什麼有更多的背景了解，你就有希望避免這些騙局。

我計劃幫助你做到這一點，即展示區塊鏈的簡短版本和長版本，它們的用途是什麼，它們如何在歷史上被用來服務於騙局和廢話，以及一個高層次理論來解釋這個可悲歷史背後的敘事演變，並對這些花招的近期未來進行預測。

區塊鏈的用途是什麼？

區塊鏈是用於穩健、抗審查、P2P的數位貨幣。它並非用於其他任何目的。如果一個區塊鏈作為貨幣運作正常，可能也可以用於其他事情。有些人覺得這很有趣，有些人則覺得這很惱人，但不要讓這種微妙的事情使你困惑。它並不是用於任意的計算和存儲，也不是用於「去中心化互聯網」或運行非法證券勾當。

它就是為了錢，簡單明瞭。

它是如何實現這一點的？工作量證明和難度調整。這些創新是每一個其他理想特性或功能的基礎。工作量證明使得抗審查成為可能。如果有人試圖向你推銷「股權證明」：廢話。難度調整使得發行可以精確、預定和公平。如果有人試圖向你推銷他們免費且無限制發行的代幣：騙局。

比特幣解決的問題既是經濟上的，也是技術上的，其解決方案具有實質的技術和經濟價值。正因為這個非常具體且不可複製的原因，比特幣代幣才有價值。如果這一切對你聽起來過於極端，那麼我建議你對這個主題的理解是非常錯誤的，你將會非常受到愚弄和詐騙，你需要閱讀這篇文章。這就是簡短版的內容。

長篇版本

我對這些話題聽起來極端的感受很敏感。畢竟，數千億美元被注入到加密貨幣，而不是比特幣——其中大部分被廣泛使用，許多能幹、誠實和聰明的人在這個行業工作。讀者可能會回想起我之前說過的，這些人並不是我批評的對象。我不是在說他們都是騙子和廢話者。但遺憾的是，我認為他們被騙和愚弄的可能性更大一些。

我認為我有資格指出這一點，因為作為比特幣領域的風險投資人，我越來越多地看到創始人告訴我這一點：他們最初被加密貨幣的炒作吸引，最終浪費了大量時間，意識到他們的想法在那個情境下在技術或經濟上都毫無意義，於是轉向比特幣。第一次聽到這樣的故事只是個案，但當你像我一樣多次聽到時，這就更像是一個代表性的樣本了。

接下來我想要涵蓋的是對前比特幣加密貨幣狀況的一個寬容的總結：我認為加密貨幣演變成了大致有四個類別：穩定幣、密碼學研究與開發、賭博和騙局。顯然這些不是互斥的；它們之間有很多重疊，而實際上，這些重疊可能是關鍵所在。

騙局

騙局就是代幣，簡單明瞭。如果有人試圖從他們發行的代幣的投機價格行為中獲利，他們就在詐騙。也許他們在騙你，也許他們在騙散戶投資者，也許他們在騙客戶或供應商——如果這些在他們的貨物崇拜「商業模式」中真的存在的話。這裡肯定藏有騙局。

然而，它很少僅僅是一個騙局。幾乎總是會包含穩定幣、研究與開發或賭博的組成部分。因此，這些值得真正理解，認真對待，給予應有的認可，但也需要進行批判性分析。

對於這種加密貨幣的大致和高層次的評估如下，我將在下文中解釋我的意思：穩定幣在經濟上有價值，但在技術上具有可疑的價值；研究與開發在技術上具有價值，但在經濟上沒有價值；賭博在某種程度上具有價值，但這取決於你如何解釋它。顯然，騙局既沒有技術上的價值，也沒有經濟上的價值。

穩定幣

所謂的「某種技術上的價值」指的是穩定幣有中心化發行者。你可以將它們發行為區塊鏈上的代幣，但實際上這沒有太大意義。發行者可以運行一個連接到互聯網的數據庫，使用一些簡單的簽名方案進行轉帳，這對運營幾乎沒有差異。事實上，這樣做會更便宜更快。事實上，你可能會運行一個Chaumian eCash鑄幣機（這是幾十年來的一項創新，最近在比特幣領域內重新被推崇），使你的比區塊鏈更便宜更快的數據庫同時也提供用戶的過渡性和隱私性，而不是區塊鏈的公共永久性。

事實上，以Tron為代表的穩定幣使用最多，從這一點可以看出：它幾乎根本沒有偽裝自己不是一個數據庫。這是作為監管套利的一種形式，因為監管機構認為這是「創新」，因為他們很愚蠢。

儘管如此，鑒於穩定幣與可悲的法定銀行和支付體系競爭的悲慘結果，這裡還是值得一些讚譽的。在轉移方面，穩定幣比任何法定銀行的責任更具有權限。至於它們似乎最重要的使用案例，它們在使用上是無需許可的，只需一個互聯網連接和正確的軟件，而不是各種歧視性的司法和合規標準。

然而，「某種技術上的價值」最終歸結為，特別是與比特幣相比，它們在其外部聯繫和價值上是高度可審查的。這些穩定幣所聲稱的資產（根據定義）仍然在法定貨幣系統內，即使這種新穎的轉移機制是不是如此。所謂的穩定幣「去中心化」實際上有些虛張聲勢，因為關閉中心化發行者是使得可以無許可交易的去中心化代幣價值歸零的唯一要求，技術上雖然無阻礙，但實際上毫無用處。相比之下，比特幣的技術創新很容易理解，因為它對這種類型的攻擊完全不關心。

另一方面，「經濟上的價值」指的是它們作為提供美元影子銀行和通常更優越的支付體系手段而被廣泛使用和重視。加密貨幣界的人通常喜歡指出這一點，許多比特幣愛好者試圖解釋它，而我則認為這與比特幣本質上無關。顯然有表面上的聯繫，但你可以通過「代幣化」任何事物而無需特別好的技術理由。我認為這是一個完全不同的行業。這更像是金融科技的一個子行業——既有銀行業的一部分，也有支付業的一部分——目前仍然依賴於我所關注的這些胡言亂語來迷惑監管機構。

坦率地說，對他們來說是好事。如果法定銀行無論如何都不會以真實貨幣來支持，那至少應該是無需許可的。它實際上應該是Chaumian eCash，如果它不僅僅是比特幣，正是監管使得它在第一次如此糟糕。使貨幣可用並非反烏托邦控制的工具，此時此刻，這是一個政治問題，而不是技術問題。穩定幣坦率地是朝著正確方向邁出的一步，特別是在使用戶適應數字資產方面。但我仍要警告，它們可能因無法承受似乎不可避免的政治攻擊而不具足夠的技術價值…

密碼學研究與開發

對於研究與開發而言，「技術上的價值」或多或少是不言自明的，但背景值得欣賞。只有在加密貨幣，特別是以太坊，人們才能無需許可地對實際上具有巨大價值的任意複雜的密碼學方案進行實驗。很多人因為他們的項目基本上是學術性質的，並且在野外試驗他們的想法比在ArXiv上發表研究論文或提交到期刊更有趣、更值得、當然也更有樂趣，因此他們能理解這樣的吸引力。

但是……被操控的價值最多是穩定幣，最糟糕的情況是毫無根據的炒作。如果不是穩定幣，那麼它很可能本來就是因為賭博或騙局而存在——即使在這種情況下，界線也非常模糊。

賭博

將這一切視為賭博的角度是有趣的，因為這實際上是一個兆美元的行業。而且它是真實的。這是一種自願的、非犯罪的、合法的經濟活動，為那些能夠有效促成它的人帶來巨大的利潤。

因此，在這個意義上，賭博具有經濟價值。但在這種情況下如何表述它卻很棘手，因為你也可以認為這是非常不誠實的賭博，因為賭徒們沒有意識到他們在對抗庄家的負和遊戲。他們認為自己在做類似於投機證券的事情，這取決於如何進行，可能同樣愚蠢，但至少具有真正的經濟效用並有助於資本形成。

這裡的區別在於，被投機的對象「沒有經濟價值」。因此，如果這是你衡量價值的標準，那麼這裡就沒有價值。在這種行為和行業的真正經濟功能之間存在非常模糊的界線。也許參與其中的人認為他們在做的是驚人的研究與開發，也許這無意間只是一個騙局；也許他們知道這一切都是無稽之談，但他們認為自己可以在這個負和遊戲中獲利，因為總有更多的傻瓜。無論如何，我認為賭博是對用戶行為和行業的真實經濟功能非常有益的描述。

這一切中有一個有趣的社會組成部分，因為加密貨幣的人們通常會因為比特幣愛好者不關心穩定幣或加密貨幣研究與開發而對他們感到生氣：他們會說，你們為什麼不喜歡穩定幣，它們具有明確的經濟價值？答案是它們具有可疑的技術價值。或者，你們為什麼不喜歡我們的下一代零知識擴展協議，它具有明確的技術價值？答案是它沒有經濟價值。

如果你對其中一個感到滿意，就容易認為比特幣愛好者是封閉思維或教條主義者，但最終，我認為這只是關於紀律的問題。對於一個只能半工作的事物感到興奮有什麼意義呢？而且你知道它永遠不會完全工作？坦率地說，這很可能是出於善意，但這有點胡扯。它很可能最終基於賭博，而根本不是它所聲稱的目的……或者它只是一個騙局。

我們是如何走到這一步的？

以下並不是詳盡無遺，這裡的構架故意帶有些許調侃意味。雖然基本上是足夠準確的（難免有些偏見），但我的目標主要是為了設定我對接下來會發生什麼的預測。

2015 現實：以太坊推出 叙事：「世界電腦」

2015年，以太坊推出。當時的叙事是我們正在建立「世界電腦」，現在我們可以進行去中心化、無法審查的計算。不用在意任何擁有筆記本電腦的人都擁有了一個無法審查和去中心化的計算設備這一事實。同時也要牢記這個問題：“在這種方式下，計算哪些數據可能有意義？”答案將會變得更加清晰和明確……

2016-17 現實：ICO泡沫 叙事：「Web 3」/「DApps」

儘管如此，2015年末我們提出並採納了ERC20：這是以太坊合約內發行可替代代幣的標準，這就是為什麼在2016年，尤其是在2017年，我們看到了ICO泡沫的出現。叙事發生了變化。現在我們關注的是「Web 2」公司變得龐大、強大和中心化。相反，如果用戶可以合作擁有應用程序、控制自己的數據並參與他們使用所創造的經濟收益，會怎樣？

2018-19 現實：加密冬季 叙事：「犯了些錯誤」

2018年，這一切都瓦解了，所以不要擔心，繼續前進……

2020-21 現實：DeFi夏季 叙事：「去中心化金融」

到了2020年，叙事再次有了不同的轉變。到這個時候，人們基本上已經意識到實用代幣在技術和經濟上都沒有意義。在資本財品應該豐富和通縮的地方引入人為稀缺性，並不會有任何人在乎，更不用說珍視你的創作了。另一方面，“證券”應該是稀缺的，在某種意義上應該作為可交易的帳簿項目存在。也許它們可以被代幣化，在一個無法審查和去中心化的方式下進行計算？

所以，我們看到了“DeFi”領域的繁榮，但不管怎麼說，在2021年9月，我和Axiom的合作創始人安德斯·拉爾森在我們的文章《唯有強者生存》中預測，這將是一場完全的災難，因為除了其他無知的瘋狂行為外，這些證券幾乎完全沒有任何生產性資本的基礎。這個生態系統完全是自我參照的——甚至不是建立在穩定幣的可疑經濟價值上，而是堅定地建立在賭博和騙局、槓桿、再質押和資產化的虛無之上。

2022 現實：幣市浩劫 叙事：「犯了些錯誤」

我們絕對是對的，因為在2022年一切都崩潰了。首先是Terra/Luna崩潰——一個“DeFi”項目，基本上向世界展示了這樣的論點：發行信託貨幣的部分準備銀行從理論上來說永遠不會破產，因為它可以通過發行更多的資本來彌補存款不足。儘管短暫地接近五十億美元的市值，並受到各種無知的江湖郎中的擁護和奉承，這一論點最終被市場視為極其愚蠢，正如我和尼克·卡特在《一切都崩了》中所分析的那樣。

這引發了信用傳染，很快就擊垮了3箭資本、Celsius、Voyager、BlockFi等公司。FTX通過一種我們現在了解到的方式，類似於詐騙方式擺脫債務，但最終在同年晚些時候也崩潰了。如果《唯有強者生存》是對所有這一切的事前死因分析，那麼讀者可能會想要閱讀《綠色的餐巾和火腿》，這也是我和安德斯·拉爾森共同撰寫的一種事後死因分析。

2023-至今 現實：比特幣多重簽名 叙事：「比特幣復興」

現在，很多這些東西正在轉向比特幣。本文的範圍之外無法詳細解釋這一點，但最近比特幣出現了幾個發展，無論其旨在如何，似乎都有一個集體副作用，那就是很多這些同樣的把戲現在可以（或者假裝可以）在更符合比特幣本質的背景下實施。

所以，新的叙事大致如下：

這些東西之所以失敗，並不是因為它們是糟糕的想法，在任何稍微批判性的分析下都會崩潰成為圍繞賭博和騙局的月球數學包裝，而是因為它們不在比特幣上。但同時，由於最近才可能（至少假裝能夠）在比特幣上實施它們，所以現在它們是值得的。我們在荒野中徘徊，但吸取了教訓，找到了應許之地。

技術和經濟價值

讓我們再次通過技術和經濟價值的角度來考慮所有這些。或者說，根據所述目標的所謂價值。暫時忽略是否有任何價值：

2015 技術目標：新的計算範式 經濟目標：國內生產總值的x%？

最初的“加密”概念據稱具有計算革命的潛力。這個市場有多大呢？或許是全球GDP的一大塊——如果它有任何意義的話，但這并非如此。

2016-17 技術目標：顛覆公司組織 經濟目標：標準普爾500指數的y%？

然後ICO變得更具體了一些。現在它們僅僅是在顛覆我們如何組織公司。這值多少錢？我猜可以分擔現在可以去中心化和代幣化的公司價值的一部分？誰知道……

2018-19 這段時間沒什麼值得一提

那時候什麼也沒發生，別擔心。

2020-21 技術目標：去中心化金融 經濟目標：紐交所、芝商所、國際授信和衍生品協會的z%？

DeFi再次變得更具體。現在我們僅僅是代幣化金融合同，擴展了訪問範圍，去除了中間人等等。那麼這應該也值得一些資本市場活動的一部分？

2022 這段時間沒什麼值得一提

哎呀，不要在意……

2023-至今 技術目標：現在它在比特幣上！ 經濟目標：比特幣的i%？

……現在它顯然在比特幣上。

從事後來看……

我認為最有趣的分析如下：它開始時完全瘋狂，每次都變得越來越克制——你可以戲謔地說，它開始變得越來越合理——但它也越來越接近比特幣。顯然，它正在逐漸聚焦於只有：比特幣。

這是人們痛苦地在幾十年間意識到區塊鏈的用途！它們不是用來“去中心化一切”的。它們是用來實現防止審查、誠實、p2p的數位貨幣的。

我認為這也是我們從前文中得到的當前加密狀態的原因。隨著它變得越來越合理（因為越來越接近比特幣），人們開始有如下的領悟：為人工稀缺和極其昂貴的計算而設的數字禮品券不是錢，因此我們需要在這裡加入“真實的貨幣”以使其具有經濟價值，因此你得到了穩定幣。另外，我們擁有一個豐富的編程環境，這似乎在技術上很有趣，但同時卻有一個嚴重的技術障礙，即無法完成世界上所有計算的千億分之一千億分之一千億的計算，因此你得到了加密研發。這些以一種補丁的形式出現，它們在孤立狀態下具有一些價值，而長期趨勢實際上是向比特幣趨同。

這是一個開放且引人入勝的問題，是否還有什麼學習可以轉移到比特幣。對於穩定幣而言，這似乎不太清楚，因為使用區塊鏈本身就會引入可疑的技術價值，而不僅僅是比特幣以外的區塊鏈。然而，努力創建相對某些外部價格穩定的比特幣餘額（無論是通過代幣化還是其他方式），應該值得稱讚，儘管仍需嚴格審視它們到底有多少真正的技術價值。

看起來加密研發在比特幣的上下文中將被證明在某種程度上是有用的，而在這種情況下，經濟價值實際上是通過轉向比特幣來解決的，前提是必要的技術價值可以被模仿。在撰寫本文時，這既是希望的來源，也是恐懼的來源：希望在開發的可行途徑中有可能性（儘管仍然高度不確定）；恐懼是由於這個方向的早期步驟已經在追求胡說八道和騙局。

敘述進化

回到上面的表格，我想快速做三個觀察，這些觀察將整個論點聯繫在一起，並帶我們到文章的結尾：

首先，泡沫總是追隨比特幣的價格。希望我不需要為讀者包含價格走勢圖表，讓他們立即理解這一點。

其次，重要的是敘述總是在變化中。在2017年和2021年比特幣牛市後，為這些垃圾籌集了絕對驚人的巨額資金。做這些的人不能指向之前的絕對災難，因此他們必須編造類似於我們吸取了教訓，我們已經改進了用例之類的東西。這應該聽起來很熟悉，就在上面提到的地方。

第三，然而，無論他們提出了什麼樣的改進，新“敘述”的後果總是“買我的代幣”。

總是如此。

不管中間有什麼流行語沙拉。總是“比特幣很酷，xyz，fughayzi fughahzi，買我的代幣。”

這就是為什麼我很想不那麼在意開發人員、學者、企業家等人，實際上我的虛無假設更可能是，他們更有可能是受害者而不是行兇者。我認為如果沒有我指責的關鍵群體，他們甚至不能處於貢獻的位置。當你把所有這些因素結合在一起時，我認為這個分析的結果如下：

整個屎幣循環可以追溯到不道德的金融家在牛市中說服不明真相的資本配置者，他們認為，是的，比特幣很酷，但他們正在做的事情更相關、更酷，他們應該得到報酬。

讓我們將其標籤為屎幣循環的資本循環理論。我認為關於屎幣循環的任何其他事情都是這一核心認識的下游。

如何避免它

鑑於我已經涵蓋了這麼多內容，這基本上就是文章的結尾。

你需要意識到為什麼這些事情現在正在發生。如果你（也就是資本配置業的目標讀者群）還沒有遭遇這些問題，我可以保證，你將會面臨：隨著ETF和剛剛過去的比特幣分叉，我們似乎正在開始一場比特幣牛市，這些人已經在騙局和胡扯上籌集了荒謬的資金。他們可能已經虧損慘重，或者甚至已經在零售投資者身上賣空並獲得了極好的“回報”。但無論如何，他們需要一個新的敘述。

他們可能圍繞穩定幣、研發或兩者之間擁有一個可行的敘述，並且他們對騙局的警惕性可能如我在這裡所建議的那樣。如果他們現在才意識到在七年和數千億美元之後每一個前述的加密貨幣敘述是多麼無意義和不誠實；如果他們的歷史記錄表明他們深度參與、豐厚報酬，但卻沒有創造任何持久價值；如果他們說：“建設者正在回到比特幣”之類的話，你應該非常、非常懷疑。應該警惕代幣，也就是說，應該警惕騙局。

特別令人沮喪的是，在撰寫時大受歡迎的“第二層”的技術旋轉，它們“建設者正在回到比特幣”以進行建設，幾乎可以肯定，這將會是你、作為資本配置讀者，幾乎肯定會被推銷的東西。它們本身是相當合理的，但它們不需要代幣，也不需要賭博來支持代幣價格。它們需要的是對比特幣技術和經濟的堅實遵循。至少，在這些設計折衷方案之後和計劃之前，它們需要誠實地溝通，以及這些折衷方案之後是否還剩下任何經濟和技術的價值。

敘述問題旁白，這些項目的現實是，它們的99%都是與多重簽名監管用戶存款的私人執行環境有關。這就是說，一方面，它們是從以太坊載入的“加密貨幣研發”神秘化，這在比特幣中根本不可能，以假裝技術上的優勢；另一方面，它們根本不是第二層。再次強調，它們可能最終就像Chaumian電子現金鑄造廠一樣，唯一的例外是，這會使旨在進行的代幣騙局幾乎不可能實現。

最近在他共同主持的“Hell Money”播客上，Ordinals協議的創造者Casey Rodarmor對於現在每個人都在建立第二層的想法發表了評論：

這完全是以太坊上悲慘的同樣的行為計劃在比特幣上的重演。這就是你在以太坊上得到風險投資支票的方式。它們都是高級的多重簽名，所以它們就像是，“嘿，讓我們將我們的高級多重簽名移植到比特幣上，並獲得風險投資支票。”我曾和一位正在從事一個有趣項目的朋友交談，一個開源的交易聚類分析器，我說：“也許你可以這樣做並籌集一些風險投資。”他說：“是的，好吧，但籌集風險投資有什麼意義？”我說：“不，不，不，這就是終點！這就是目標！你籌集風險投資，然後你從那筆風險投資中切割支票，直到錢用完，然後你再以10倍估值籌集更多。這就是新經濟，伙計們！

1%有誠意嘗試在技術上和經濟上合理地將加密貨幣研發的教訓帶給比特幣，他們希望最終在長期競爭中獲得勝利（即使在撰寫時這還有些推測性），但在這些騙局和胡扯的牛市風暴中，他們可能得不到太多關注。

Axiom將盡最大努力來挖掘並投資於這些公司（我們已經開始了！），但鑒於屎幣循環的資本循環理論，我們已經接受，要在資本配置者眼中變得更加困難。坦率地說，鑒於過去輸掉這場戰鬥並面對未來可能輸掉這場戰鬥的真實前景，這整篇文章可能被公正地認為是我在應對中的應對。哦，好吧，至少我試過了。

結尾

屎幣循環資本理論的精髓在於，我描述的問題最終來自於像你這樣的人被那些聽起來技術性很高的廢話，比如“Web 3”，所迷惑，讓你認為這一切比實際情況要複雜得多。只買比特幣。這當然是你應該做的第一件事情，也可能是你唯一需要做的事情。

如果你真的非常想額外承擔比特幣生態系統的投資風險，Axiom團隊將很樂意與你交流。但我們永遠不會勸說你不買比特幣。不存在比特幣表現不佳而我們表現出色的世界，也不存在我們承諾比比特幣“更好”的事情，如果你不已經相信這一點，與我們交流毫無意義。

如果你對此感興趣，我們很樂意交流。如果不是，那就只買比特幣吧。無論如何，提前警告，我們正進入一個比特幣牛市，騙局和胡扯即將如影隨形。祝你好運避開它們。

Allen Farrington 艾倫·法林頓，2024年6月

原文：nostr

Beginnings

The adventure began when Birdman, Elbereth, Lonely, Harlow, Zander, Tor, Garthax, and Greg met in the Lucky Gryphon Tavern (also commonly known as Quincy’s Tavern) in Neverwinter. They had all been hired by one Gundren Rockseeker, a dwarf who claimed he was onto “something big” and needed them to transport a cart full of supplies from Neverwinter to the small town of Phandalin, to the southeast. The promised payment was gold on arrival, and an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of this “something big.”

Gundren left a day prior to the party beginning their adventure, with his hired protection, a man named Sildar Hallwinter, to arrive early and take care of some business before the party arrived.

As the party traveled, they found the ruins of an old inn on the road between Neverwinter and Waterdeep. Here is where they first met a goose with a distinctive band of black feathers around its neck. It promptly began digging around in Loney Redbeard’s pack, trying to steal something, but ended up not doing so. Harlow produced a kazoo, and proceeded to bond with Goose thanks to mutual honking.

Cragmaw Hideout

The party discovered Gundren and Sildar’s horses dead in the road, forming a roadblock that goblins used to ambush them. Tracing the goblins’ path back to their hideout on the outskirts of the Neverwinter Woods, they quickly subdued Gurg, a lookout, and upon both pain of death and the promise of free dental, convinced him to give up the rest of the goblins.

Gurg informed them that they were the Cragmaw Goblins, a tribe of goblins that filed their teeth down into points, hence both the name and the desire for better dental care. Their boss had instructed them to capture a dwarf matching Gundren’s description, and send him and any maps he may have been carrying onto the Castle. Gurg didn’t know where the castle was, only that it was deeper in the woods.

The party set up an ambush and dispatched most of the rest of the goblins, and rescued Sildar, who had been held captive in the cave. Sildar explained that what Gundren and the other Rockseeker brothers had found was the legendary Wave Echo Cave.

More than five hundred years ago, clans of dwarves and gnomes made an agreement known as the Phandelver’s Pact, by which they would share a rich mine in a wondrous cavern known as Wave Echo Cave. In addition to its mineral wealth, the mine contained great magical power. Human spellcasters allied themselves with the dwarves and gnomes to channel and bind that energy into a great forge (called the Forge of Spells), where magic items could be crafted. Times were good, and the nearby settlement of Phandalin prospered as well. But then disaster struck when orcs swept through the North and laid waste to all in their path.

A powerful force of orcs reinforced by evil mercenary wizards attacked Wave Echo Cave to seize its riches and magic treasures. Human wizards fought alongside their dwarf and gnome allies to defend the Forge of Spells, and the ensuing spell battle destroyed much of the cavern. Few survived the cave-ins and tremors, and the location of Wave Echo Cave was lost.

That is, until the Rockseeker brothers found it, according to Sildar. He requested an escort the rest of the way to Phandalin, and promised payment on arrival, however the main payment for the original task was going to come from Gundren, wherever he was.

Meanwhile, critically, Tor and Garthax had stayed behind with the cart, and Goose came up to bother them. A well placed shot from Tor, and Goose fell, and they enjoyed a lovely late lunch of gooseflesh.

Arrival at Phandalin

Continuing to Phandalin, the party lodged at the Stonehill Inn, and participated in the Dragon Flagon Challenge. No one succeeded that first night, but several people, especially Zander, got quite sloshed. I believe Garthax saw Goose once again and took him out.

The next morning, Garthax and Zander woke up late. The rest of the party proceeded to explore the town. Sildar paid what he promised, and requested that the group investigate the Redbrand Ruffians, based out of the old destroyed Tresendar Manor. His friend Iarno Albrek had been sent to investigate them, but hadn’t been heard from in a month.

Other party members met Halia Thornton at the Phandalin Miner’s Exchange. She introduced them to Mok, a shapeshifting rogue, and also asked them to take care of the leader of the Redbrands, a man going by the name Glasstaff. If he was taken care of, and any documents he had in his possession or on his desk were brought to her, she would pay the party handsomely.

Looking for healing potions, the party was directed to the Shrine of Luck, dedicated to the goddess of luck, Tymora. Sister Garaele had a few, and offered to give the party several more for free if they would help her out. She gave the party a silver comb, and asked them to take it to a banshee named Agatha near the town of Conyberry. She hoped that if presented with the gift, Agatha would be willing to give the party information on the location of a spellbook belonging to a legendary mage named Bowgentle. The party accepted the comb and has yet to make this journey.

Tresendar Manor Ruins

During their travels, the group was accosted by the Redbrands. Swiftly dealing with them, the party went to the Sleeping Giant Taphouse, where the ruffians seemed to frequent, and proceeded to get into a scrap that ended with the entire Taphouse burning to the ground.

Carp Alderleaf, the young halfling son of the local farmer, guided the party to a secret tunnel (SECRET TUNNEL!) leading into the basement of the Tresendar Manor.

The first creature that the party laid eyes on was a Nothic, a one-eyed humanoid aberration that poked around in their minds and whispered vague secrets to the group that had yet to be revealed (Hey guess what I don’t remember everything the Nothic taunted people with so that’s gonna be on all y’all to remember). The Nothic was slain as he was bringing forth a box with some treasures, intending to trade it to the party for something that was quickly forgotten by the group.

The party split and explored, one group quickly discovering Glasstaff, also known as Iarno Albrek, and knocked him unconscious and tied him up. Among his papers was a message written to him, warning him that the party was coming into town, and instructing Iarno to deal with them and ensure any dwarven maps in their possession were delivered to this strange entity. The message was signed only with a drawing of a large spider.

Continuing to explore, the party regrouped (still missing Zander, Garthax staying behind to nurse a headache due to being knocked unconsious, Mok staying behind to “cover the exit” and totally not try to find more loot from the poker game they had broken up and/or attempt to rob Garthax), and proceeded to explore and continue to eliminate Redbrands, having heard from the Nothic that they had some prisoners. War Crimes were very explicitly not committed because formal war had not been declared and none of the party had ascribed to any sort of convention, and Geneva is a place in a different realm of existence.

The party discovered Goose at the bottom of a pit trap, and he was swiftly dispatched by Birdman again. Harlow, however, heard a voice reassuring her that Goose would be back soon enough. They entered a crypt and defeated several undead within, and opened a door to the prison area, whereupon one of the prisoners, a young human woman of 18, screamed “They know you’re coming, it’s a trap!”

The Rest Of The Party Catches Up

Garthax woke up fairly early, and met Goose. He promptly killed him, and then went downstairs and began to follow the party’s trail. And met Goose again. And killed him again, whereupon the previous corpse of Goose began to fade from existence. A little weirded out, he followed the party and eventually stayed behind to nurse some headaches from previous fights, accompanied by Mok.

Zander woke up much later, and proceeded to follow the party’s footsteps, learning about how the local woodcarver, Thel Drendar, had stood up to the Redbrands for accosting his daughter, and was murdered for his trouble. It was reported that Thel’s body had been taken into the Manor, along with his still living family; wife Mirna, his 18 year old daughter, Nilsa, and his son, 13 year old Nars.

Zander arrived at the location of the dead Nothic, and a small humanoid resembling a cross between a gnome and a halfling decided to get a good laugh out of it. Tasslehoff Burrfoot the 12th had appeared in the manor from his own world after fiddling with some gizmo, and was going to make the most of it. Using illusion magic, he made it appear as if the Nothic’s spirit or soul was rising and attempting to attack Zander.

Once things calmed down, the pair made their introductions, and found Garthax and Mok. Regrouping, the Other Half went to catch up with the party and check rooms that hadn’t been checked yet. Behind one, they found two bugbears taunting and teasing a goblin, who promptly fainted when the Other Half opened the door. Garthax threw Tasslehoff into the fray, and Zander followed quickly of his own accord. Swiftly, however, the fight began to turn against our heroes.

A voice rang out from the corner, stating that things were getting out of hand, and it was time for her to step in. Appearing from invisibility came a red tiefling, with black hair and curled ram’s horns, wearing what could only be described as the Party City version of cleric’s robes. She introduced herself as Nancy, and proceeded to heal the party from a scroll she carried, and with some magic she possessed took out the remaining hostiles.

She informed the group that there was someone that had a vested interest in seeing the party succeed, and she’d been sent by “the Boss” to make sure things didn’t go screwy before they got where they needed to be. She turned invisible again, promising that she’d be around to keep tabs on the group.

The group proceeded to hire the goblin, named Droop, and sent him to sit with Gurg outside.

Moving forward, the group quickly began to catch up to the rest of the Party. Nancy, still invisible, gave Tasslehoff the gizmo he’d had prior to appearing, which caused him to vanish once more. The two groups reunited right as Nilsa’s warning rang out.

Things Get Weird(er)

At that moment, time seemed to freeze. A horrendous screeching sound filled the air, and Garthax, Birdman, Elbereth, and Greg vanished, and in their place appeared clear octahedron gems with an inky black liquid inside. Simultaneously, three additional octahedral gems with inky liquid inside appeared, and in a flash became three new people. A very pale female human, a female fairy, and a female elf unlike any the rest of the party had seen (Soon the group would know them as Gengen-Wer, Marin, and Faylen, respectively).

The two Redbrands that were waiting to ambush the party quickly surrendered when they saw exactly how many people they were trying to ambush. The party freed the prisoners and pushed the Redbrands into a cell,and were discussing what to do next and trying to figure out what the heck just happened and who these new people were.

That’s when the honking started.

Swarming in came an army of clowns, that proceeded to herd the group into the cell, with a sinister rhyme that was familiar to Tor.

Giggle and laugh, or scream and run! Today’s the day, unless you’re the one You’re going to die, but if you give us a pun, You’ll live to work for Doctor Chucklefun!

A portly male elf clown entered in, and seemed to take great delight in the group’s attempts at puns, with all the rest of the clowns screeching in demonic laughter as they did so. Eventually, six more gnome clowns ran in carrying a Portable Hole, set it up, and the true Doctor Chucklefun entered in, a tall, thin elf with slicked back green hair and a pristine purple suit.

After taunting the party some, talking about how “The Game” was starting to get interesting now, Tor broke free and made a vow, declaring that he would take power and protect the world from people like Doctor Chucklefun by ruling it in opposition. Power surged through him as his Paladin vow took effect, and Tor took out several of the clowns, their corpses bleeding black ichor.

Chucklefun decided to cut his losses, had his crew forcibly convert the two Redbrands into members of his troupe by feeding them some elixir (a bottle of this liquid known as “Thrill-Joy” he tossed to Mok who had been hiding in the crowd, encouraging him to truly join them), and proceeded to take Nars Drendar and abscond through the portable hole and have his crew abscond, telling the party that they could find him at the Thundertree ruins if they wanted. The clowns quickly left, with little trace.

Goose returned when Harlow called for him, helping get the party organized, and Zander found a Hither-Thither staff in the aftermath, then promptly lost track of it to Gengen’s sticky fingers. A few of the Space Clowns’ ray guns were stolen as well.

A Midwinter’s Carol

The group calmed down, and proceeded to deliver Iarno to Sildar Hallwinter, who was very disappointed with the choices his friend had made, and told the group he would have to deliver him to Neverwinter for questioning and judgment later. Lonely discovered that four gold was missing from his purse, and embraced his rage. The party got paid, and proceeded to deliver the goods to Halia Thornton at the Miner’s Exchange as well. Another octahedral gem appeared, this time bearing Paul, a paladin claiming to serve the One True God, and Mok vanished and a gem took his place

And that’s when Merrin found the Deck of Many Things, just prior to bed. Declaring that she would pull two cards, the first summoned an Avatar of Death that she had to defeat on her own. The second gave her increased vitality (mechanically, in the form of a +2 to one of her stats).

Lonely found a similar magic deck, and pocketed it, knowing the danger it could pose.

That night, Lonely, Harlow, Gengen, Garthax (who briefly returned), and Tor were woken up by Goose, to discovered that they could understand him, and had been all transformed into geese!

Goose informed them that they had been made honorary members of the Goosefeathers Crime Family, serving the Honkfather, and that they were on a critical mission. Their mortal enemy, the Quackuza, led by the Don, had somehow gained the ability to travel through time, and the Don’s three Lieutenants (who wanted to be called Jet, Turbo, and Rebel, but everyone just called them by their given names, Hubert, Dewford, and Lewis) were using this ability to attempt to make geese extinct by making them the only traditional meal for Midwinter’s Day.

Goose had hijacked a sleigh and nine reindeer from a jolly old elf who totally didn’t need it that night, and had Lonely outfit it with an Aetherflux Capacitator he had been given by the Goose Mother, and proceeded to trail the ducks of the Quackuza through time. They arrived in Waterdeep on a Midwinter’s Eve several years ago, and proceeded to traumatize a young Tor as they began battle with the Quackuza. They chased the quackers through time again, and eventually faced down with them on a barren, cold landscape, a dark future for Toril, filled with crystal vines.

Targeting the Aetherflux Capacitators that Huey, Dewey, and Louie were wearing on their back to augment their abilities, the party caused them to explode in a blast of white light…

And then they all woke up back in Phandalin, as their normal selves, and not geese. However, Harlow had a note and a pendant from Goose thanking her for their help.

Shenanigans

First, Tor convinced Marin to sell him a pull from the Deck of Many Things, and he gained two wishes. The party met the magic item salesman Barnaby Berenstien (or is it Bearnstien?), and proceeded to buy several items, including GunJar, the Sentient Cloak, who became Merrin’s best friend. Gengen also got Bagnes, the Bag of Keeping, a sentient bag of holding that required polite manners to retrieve items from it. Paul convinced Lonely to sell him a pull, and the entire party was teleported into a minotaur’s maze. Traveling through the maze and defeating the creatures quickly, they returned to find the area in front of the Stonehill Inn in Phandalin had become a wild magic area from all the powerful magic being used in the vicinity.

Lonely left and attempted to destroy the deck he had on a shrine to his god, but the cards just appeared back in his bag. During which attempts, Tor found a totally cursed totally uncursed ring.

Regrouping, the party began to make plans for where they needed to go next. Paul convinced Marin to sell him another pull, but Marin made the stipulation that they would both share in the effects. Pulling the Void, Paul and Marin’s souls vacated their bodies, appearing to enter similar clear octahedrons to the ones seen before (and that a few members of the party were carrying), and flew off towards the northwest, leaving Paul and Marin comatose. Getting a cart and a donkey, and pulling more supplies together, the party set off toward Neverwinter and the direction their associate’s souls left.

The Road to Neverwinter

As they traveled, they encountered a man painting landscapes who looked remarkably similar to Bob Ross, who offered to paint the group into his paintings. Noticing that one painting had Merrin and Paul in it, and every figure in these painting had an expression of agony and terror on their faces, the party entered combat. Upon destroying the painting, Marin and Paul’s souls were restored, and they swiftly destroyed Bob the Spined Devil’s form and banished him back to the Nine Hells.

As they continued on, and neared some ash flow from Mount Hotenow, which had erupted 30 years earlier, Gengen began acting strangely, a halo of that static the group had seen when party members appeared and disappeared around her head, and she eventually attacked Tor.

Gengen was no match on her own for the full force of the party against her, and was killed violently, Tor splitting her upper torso in half vertically. As she died, her repressed memories fed back into the rest of the party, and they witnessed happy goose Gengen be driven into a vicious frenzy by another goose, one wearing clown makeup, and kill her parents.

Gengen’s body landed in a pile of ash, which instead of dissipating began to flow into her corpse, pulling her body back together. Eventually she sat back up, and told the party they could call her Athanasia.

NPCs

• Quincy - Owner and operator of the Lucky Gryphon Tavern, known colloquially as Quincy’s Tavern. He introduced the party to Gundren Rockseeker and sent them on their way.
• Gundren Rockseeker - The dwarf who claims to have found the legendary Wave Echo Cave with his brothers and initially hired the party. He was kidnapped by the Cragmaw Goblins, and taken to their castle somewhere in Neverwinter Wood, together with the map he had.
• Sildar Hallwinter - A human warrior who is an agent of the Lord’s Alliance. Having business in Phandalin himself, he agreed to be Gundren’s bodyguard on the trip from Neverwinter to Phandalin. It didn’t go well, and the party rescued him from the Cragmaw Goblins’ hideout near the Triboar Trail. He’s set up in Phandalin’s Townmaster’s Hall, trying to get things sorted out there before bringing Iarno Albrek back to Neverwinter for trial.
• Goose - A goose that has taken a liking to some members of the party. Apparently can come back if he dies. Also apparently an agent of the Honkfather and the Goosefeathers Crime Family???
• Elmar Barthen - Runs Barthen’s Provisions, the General Store in Phandalin.
• Linene Graywind - Operator of the Lionshield Coster in Phandalin, that sells weapons and armor. Gave the party some discounts because they recovered some of the shipment intended for the Coster from the Cragmaw Goblins.
• Halia Thornton - Operates the Phandalin Miner’s Exchange. Also seems to have some “friends” in low places. Asked the party to “take care of” the leader of the Redbrands, Glasstaff, whoever that may be and however they might interpret that, and bring any documents in his possession to her. The party did so.
• Sister Garaele - Elven acolyte of Tymora, and member of the Harpers. Asked the party to take a silver comb to a banshee named Agatha near the town of Conyberry, and ask the banshee about the whereabouts of a spellbook belonging to a mage named Bowgentle. She promised several potions of healing and 500 gold for this quest.
• Harbin Wester - Townmaster of Phandalin. Completely useless in the face of the Redbrands, Sildar has basically taken over running the town until he whips Harbin back into shape.
• Iarno Albrek - “Glasstaff” - Former agent of the Lord’s Alliance, sent to Phandalin to check on them. Vanished into the Tresendar Manor and started the Redbrands. A note giving him instructions was found among his things, signed by a drawing of a black spider.
• Quelline Alderleaf - Halfling woman who runs Alderleaf Farm with her son, Carp. Carp showed the party the secret tunnel (SECRET TUNNEL!!!) into the Tresendar Manor. Lonely has bought several pounds of barley and rice from her.
• Gurg - Former Cragmaw Goblin hired by the group with the promise of free dental. Apparently wasn’t a big fan of them in general, since he assisted in their murder.
• Droop - Another goblin hired from the Cragmaws with a dental promise. Was clearly getting bullied when found.
• Daren Edermath - Former adventurer, retired after he took an arrow to the knee. Runs Edermath Orchard in Phandalin. Asked the party to investigate people digging for Netherese ruins by the Old Owl Well east of Phandalin.
• Nancy - Mysterious tiefling woman who was apparently sent to “watch over” the party by a mysterious benefactor.
• Doctor Chucklefun - Evil space clown. Was Tor’s former employer (not by Tor’s choice). Actively engaged in the slave trade, kidnapped a kid… Who knows what else?
• Reidoth the Druid - An apparently knowledgeable druid and member of the Emerald Enclave. Said to be investigating ash zombies and a dragon up at the ruins of Thundertree.
• Thel Drendar - Local woodcarver murdered by the Redbrands for getting “uppity” (read: defending the honor of his wife and daughter).
• Mirna Drendar - Widow of Thel Drendar. Was captured by the Redbrands to be sold as a slave, freed by the party along with her daughter, Nilsa, and her son, Nars. Told the party of the location of an emerald necklace in Thundertree that they could have as thanks, especially so if they rescued her son from Doctor Chucklefun.
• Nilsa Drendar - 18 year old daughter of Thel and Mirna. Attempted to warn the party of a Redbrand ambush. The ambush was only two people attempting to ambush like, 8 adventurers, but good on her for looking out.
• Nars Drendar - 13 year old son of Thel and Mirna. Was captured with his sister and mom by the Redbrands. Freed by the party, only to get kidnapped by Doctor Chucklefun. Chucklefun said he’d be at the ruins of Thundertree, for however much you can trust an evil space clown.

Table Of Content

• Understanding Bitcoin Mining

• Prospects for Profitability

• Electricity Costs

• Bitcoin Price

• Mining Difficulty

• Conclusion

• FAQ

Bitcoin mining is the process of adding new transactions to the blockchain network by solving complex mathematical algorithms through computer hardware. As the network grows and becomes more secure, the difficulty of these algorithms increases, making it more challenging to mine Bitcoin. Despite the challenges, the profitability of mining Bitcoin has attracted many investors and enthusiasts to the industry. This article explores the process of Bitcoin mining and the prospects for profitability.

Understanding Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin mining involves solving a mathematical puzzle, known as the Proof of Work algorithm. This process requires a massive amount of computational power, which is achieved through specialized computer hardware known as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). These devices consume a significant amount of electricity, and the mining process can generate a lot of heat, making it an expensive and energy-intensive endeavor.

The mining process involves validating transactions and creating new blocks on the blockchain. The miners compete to solve the puzzle first, and the first miner to solve it gets to add the block to the chain, earning a block reward in Bitcoin. The current block reward is 6.25 Bitcoin, which is halved approximately every four years. This reward serves as an incentive for miners to continue mining and securing the network.

Prospects for Profitability

Bitcoin mining can be a profitable venture, but it comes with significant risks and uncertainties. The profitability of mining depends on several factors, including the cost of electricity, the price of Bitcoin, and the difficulty of mining.

Electricity Costs

Electricity costs are a significant expense in Bitcoin mining. The cost of electricity varies significantly by location, and miners must consider this when choosing where to set up their operations. In some countries, electricity costs are relatively low, making mining more profitable. In contrast, in countries with high electricity costs, the profitability of mining can be limited.

Bitcoin Price

The price of Bitcoin is another crucial factor in the profitability of mining. As the price of Bitcoin rises, so does the value of the block reward. However, when the price of Bitcoin falls, the profitability of mining can quickly disappear. Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, and the price can fluctuate significantly in a short period, making it challenging to predict profitability accurately.

Mining Difficulty

The difficulty of mining is another factor that affects profitability. The mining difficulty adjusts automatically every 2016 blocks, approximately every two weeks. If the network's hash rate increases, the difficulty will increase, making it more challenging to mine Bitcoin. If the hash rate decreases, the difficulty will decrease, making it easier to mine Bitcoin. The difficulty adjustment helps to keep the block time at around ten minutes, regardless of how much computational power is being used to mine Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Bitcoin mining is an energy-intensive and complex process that requires specialized hardware and significant investments. While it can be profitable, the profitability of mining depends on several factors, including electricity costs, the price of Bitcoin, and the difficulty of mining. As the network continues to grow, the difficulty of mining will increase, making it more challenging to earn a profit. As such, it is important to carefully consider the costs and risks involved in Bitcoin mining before investing in it.

FAQ

How is the value of Bitcoin determined? The value of Bitcoin is determined by supply and demand on various cryptocurrency exchanges. The more people that want to buy Bitcoin, the higher the price will be, and vice versa.

How many Bitcoins are there? The maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, and as of 2021, approximately 18.7 million have been mined. The remaining Bitcoins will be mined over time until the maximum supply is reached.

What are some advantages of using Bitcoin? Bitcoin allows for fast and secure peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a middleman. It also provides users with more control over their money and can be used for international transactions without the need for currency exchange.

How can I get Bitcoin? You can acquire Bitcoin through various methods, including buying it on a cryptocurrency exchange, mining it using specialized hardware, or accepting it as payment for goods or services. It's important to do your research and understand the risks involved before investing in Bitcoin.

That's all for today

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

Little snitch shows this - very peculiar :-)

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/621754

Salt = NaCl + แร่ธาตุ

1. Natural salt

1.1 Sea salt : มาจากทะเล

มีแร่ธาตุประมาณ 24 ชนิด โซเดียมต่ำ ดอกเกลือ > เกลือสมุทร > ดีเกลือ

• ดอกเกลือ = grade A คือ แผ่นฟิล์มที่ผิวน้ำ แร่ธาตุสูง บริสุทธิ์

• เกลือสมุทร = grade B มีดิน หิน ทราย ปนเล็กน้อย

• ดีเกลือ ไม่สะอาด ไม่ควรทาน เหมาะทำ spa, ขัดผิว

1.2 Rock salt : มาจากภูเขา

เกลือหลากสี ขึ้นกับแร่ธาตุ

• เกลือชมพู : มีแร่ธาตุประมาณ 84 ชนิด

• เกลือดำ : เกลือชมพูที่พบใกล้ภูเขาไฟ (มี sulfur/sulfate)

  1. Refine salt : เกลืออุตสาหกรรม / แปรรูป ex. Refine pure salt, Refine pure sea salt

  2.1 Table salt เกลือแกง (ได้ Na + Cl only!)

  2.2 Salt substitute เกลือโซเดียมต่ำ (ลด Na เพิ่ม K แทน)

  ทั้ง 2.1 และ 2.2 มีอัตราการเกิดโรคแทบไม่ต่างกัน

  ปริมาณที่แนะนำให้ทาน Sodium 2,300 mg/day Salt 5 g/day

  ยิ่ง loss เยอะ ยิ่งต้องเติมเยอะ

การขับออก

main : เหงื่อ, ปัสสาวะ less : อุจจาระ

salt vs โรคไต

จริงๆ สิ่งที่ทำให้ไตวาย คือ insulin* insulin > Na reabsorption > Hypertension > end-stage renal disease

don’t trust, verify

siamstr

• When the sun goes down, the spirits of the trees have nothing to do and they kinda wander around and fit the stereotypical ghost sighting.
• Some people believe the Earth has a spirit. If the Earth has a spirit, then probably the Sun does too. I have seen evidence that the Sun responds in obvious ways to any high quality thought.
• Sometimes spirits of dead people will attach themselves to physical people out of love or some other emotion. If you drink yourself into oblivion, then those spirits may take control of your unoccupied physical body.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/621672

ฉบับ Highlight

ทุกสิ่งทุกอย่างควรเป็นในสิ่งที่ควรเป็น

ผลของ Proof of work ทำให้คนนั้นเป็นแบบนั้น

บางเรื่อง คนบางคนต้องรู้ด้วยตัวเอง

ความสุข เหมือน ความทุกข์

บางอย่างที่นิ่ง คือ สิ่งที่เปลี่ยนแปลงเป็นปกติ

'ลงทุนด้วยฉันทะ แล้วจะสุข สำเร็จ มีเวลาเพื่อพิจารณา money management และ mindset ตามลำดับ'

siamstr

The importance of ethics and values in empires extends beyond moral and spiritual aspects to profoundly impact the stability and continuity of these massive political and social structures. Here's a comprehensive look at the significance of ethics and values in empires:

$$Enhancing Social Stability$$

Ethics and values play a crucial role in enhancing social stability within empires. When ruling elites and populations share a common set of ethical values and standards, it reinforces a sense of solidarity, belonging, and reduces internal social conflicts.

$$Cultivating Loyalty and Belonging$$

Ethics and values contribute to building loyalty and belonging among citizens towards the governing system and the state. When individuals feel that the system adopts values that resonate with their beliefs and ethical principles, they are more willing to support it and dedicate themselves to its service.

$$Boosting Legitimacy and Governance Capability$$

Empires with a strong ethical system gain greater legitimacy in the eyes of governed populations and the international community. This helps them maintain political and economic stability and effectively manage internal and external affairs.

$$Supporting Cultural and Artistic Development$$

Ethics and values play a role in supporting cultural and artistic development within empires. Reinforcing these values contributes to the appreciation of art, culture, and literature, enhancing the cultural identity of the empire and attracting artists and scholars to serve the governing system.

$$Effectively Confronting External Challenges$$

Ethics and values provide empires with strength and resilience to confront external challenges, whether military, economic, or political. When the empire is unified and cohesive around shared values, it can overcome crises and challenges more effectively.

Historical examples of decline due to moral decay abound across different civilizations and empires throughout history. Here are a few notable examples:

$$Roman Empire$$

The decline of the Roman Empire is often attributed to various factors, including moral decadence. During its later stages, Roman society saw a decline in traditional values such as civic duty, discipline, and respect for authority. This moral decay contributed to political instability, corruption, and a weakening of social cohesion, ultimately contributing to the empire's fragmentation and eventual collapse.

$$Ottoman Empire$$

The Ottoman Empire, at its height, was a vast and powerful entity. However, over time, internal corruption and moral decline became significant issues. The empire's ruling class, once known for its discipline and meritocracy, became increasingly corrupt and nepotistic. This weakened governance, eroded public trust, and contributed to economic stagnation and military defeats.

$$Ancient Greece$$

In ancient Greece, the city-state of Athens provides an example of how moral decline can impact a society. Athens, known for its cultural achievements and democratic ideals, also experienced periods of moral decay. These included the erosion of civic virtues, increasing hedonism, and political factionalism. Such moral weaknesses contributed to social unrest and vulnerability to external threats, including the eventual subjugation by Macedon and later Rome.

$$Ming Dynasty$$

The Ming Dynasty of China, known for its cultural renaissance and economic prosperity, faced internal challenges that were exacerbated by moral decline. Corruption among officials, moral laxity at the imperial court, and societal decline in Confucian values weakened the dynasty's ability to govern effectively. These factors contributed to internal rebellions and invasions by external forces, leading to the Ming Dynasty's collapse.

$$British Empire$$

Even modern empires like the British Empire faced challenges related to moral decline. As the empire expanded, issues such as exploitation of colonies, racial discrimination, and ethical controversies emerged. These moral failings generated resistance movements and challenges to imperial authority, ultimately contributing to the decolonization process and the decline of British influence worldwide.

$$The Economic Impact$$

Decline in Economic Confidence:

Moral decay leads to a decline in trust between individuals and the government or economic system. When citizens perceive corruption or a failure to uphold ethical values in economic sectors, confidence in the financial system decreases, impacting investment and economic growth.

Increased Corruption and Economic Waste:

Moral decay opens the door to increased corruption in both government and private institutions, resulting in the misuse of public funds and economic underperformance. Corruption reduces the efficiency of government spending and undermines private investment, negatively affecting economic growth and wealth distribution.

Deterioration of Infrastructure and Public Services:

Corruption and moral decay can also lead to reduced investment in infrastructure and inadequate public service delivery. Non-compliance with ethical standards can lead to infrastructure collapse and insufficient service provision, impacting quality of life and sustainable development.

$$The Political Impact$$

Loss of Legitimacy and Increased Protests:

Moral decay within governments can lead to a loss of legitimacy in the eyes of the people. When citizens feel that the system does not adhere to ethical standards or engages in corruption, this can increase protests and political unrest.

Decline in Leadership and Strategic Planning:

Leadership affected by moral decay may lose the ability to strategically plan and effectively manage crises. Corruption and unethical practices can negatively impact the government's ability to make tough decisions and address political and economic challenges.

Exacerbation of Social and Ethnic Divisions:

Moral decay can increase social and ethnic divisions within societies, as corruption and injustice exacerbate resentment and anger among different societal groups.

What's up stackers!

Wanted to share a recent update on CASCDR.

TLDR: YouTube cracked down hard on access to third party scraping/APIs so we had to discontinue some services that rely on them (for now) in favor of an RSS focus.

We have changed our YouTube agent to an RSS Agent which performs substantially the same task with only a slight UX twist: Before: use YouTube as a proxy for surfacing relevant content After: browse content by RSS feeds to analyze podcasts

A Temporary Armistice Broken

We knew the day would eventually come when big tech would start limiting our access to information. Like Xitter last year , YouTube has begun cracking down on anonymous access & web scraping.

We decided it was time to implement the plan we made long ago and abstract out the YouTube source content in favor of the open RSS feeds.

We know of several other projects especially on nostr that were likewise affected. While this affront to the free and open internet is unsurprising it is disappointing. If your app was affected by the YT crackdown feel free to reach out for help.

On a personal level this sucked for me because I was on vacation enjoying time with family and traveling for Bitcoin 2024 when this issue arose. That slowed us down quite a bit. Despite that, our team was able to put in a heroic effort and restore the core functionality our users need using RSS instead of YouTube. Thanks to everyone who was patient with us in the meantime.

Our team put in a heroic effort and got us back on track. I am incredibly proud of the people at CASCDR and our team of tenacious, savvy devs.

Our Response Timeline & Roadmap

1. Outage occurred [Friday July 19]
2. Implemented proxy measures to circumvent crack down on 1 out of 3 services (it initially succeeded) [Friday July 19 ~6pm]
3. Discovered the banning was more aggressive than first thought, hard pivoted to RSS [Saturday July 20]
4. Complete Testing and Release [just now, Wednesday July 24]

Roadmap: 1. UX Optimizations on the RSS Agent (make it easier to search and explore analysis of particular podcasts a la carte) -> currently we just pull the most recent episode but plan to open it up in the coming days. 2. Restoration of batching/automation tools like CHADBot & CASCDRVision-like clip generation 3. More sophisticated AI analysis and research tools (SOON(^TM))

Closing Thoughts + CASCDR Mission

Thanks to everyone who has supported us and remained patient despite these difficulties. We will continue to press forward with our vision of creating human centric, liberty focused applications that help individuals use the AI revolution to succeed without the fear of surveillance, censorship or other predatory behavior. I welcome your thoughts in the comment section below!

Onward.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/621497

Here in the Philippines, we have a concept called “utang-na-loob”. However, this term has become muddled by English translations, mixing "owe" with "gratitude".

You'll often hear "utang-na-loob" translated as “gratitude” or “being grateful”. But “utang” translates to “owe” in English. Let's break it down with a parent-child example:

• Filipino: Utang-na-loob mo sa aming mga magulang mo na nabuhay ka.
• English: You owe us for being born, so we expect you to repay us once you start earning.

See the issue here?

1. Children don’t owe their parents for being born. It was the parents who decided to bring them into the world.

Think about it. If you were an unplanned child, do you owe your parents for being born? How could that be? It's the same even if you were a planned child.

1. The expectation that children will "repay" their parents once they start earning is problematic.

Some parents stop working once their children get a job, expecting their children to support them financially as a form of repayment for being raised and educated.

Isn’t it a permanent responsibility of parents to provide for their children, whether financially or emotionally?

This expectation continues even after the children start their own families. They are still expected to support their parents financially because of “utang-na-loob”.

This is fundamentally wrong on many levels.

What parents actually meant by “utang-na-loob” is “gratitude” or deep thanks, with no expectation of repayment. If someone chooses to give back, it should be out of goodwill, not obligation.

“Utang-na-loob” should simply mean "owe". For example, if I help you build your countryside home, you might say, “Thank you, I owe you one!”

Or, if you borrow money from me and repay it, you might still feel you owe me for helping you out. That’s the essence of “utang-na-loob”.

Can you see now how the misuse of “utang-na-loob” creates misunderstandings and strained relationships?

Consider the parent-child relationship again:

1. Do you want your children to help you out of genuine gratitude for all you’ve done, from their hearts? Or,
2. Do you want them to help because they feel obligated, believing they owe you for being born and for your sacrifices?

In the first scenario, your children will willingly help you out of love and gratitude, even if it means significant personal sacrifice.

In the second scenario, you might feel stressed about asking for help, fearing their reluctance or resentment. You could mistakenly see them as ungrateful, when in fact, they love you but feel pressured by the obligation of “utang-na-loob” applied incorrectly.

This applies to all relationships, not just parent-child. It could be between spouses, siblings, cousins, or business partners. To avoid confusion and misunderstandings, it’s better to use “owe” for obligations and “gratitude” for heartfelt thanks, and refrain from using the phrase “utang-na-loob”.

That was quite the discussion. Until next time!

This is a follow up to my post yesterday Punishment is a Public Good. Thank you to everyone who read, commented, and zapped that post. I really appreciate it.

Now I want to think through the implications of that topic for Stacker News, specifically. Before I jump into it, @Signal312 started this whole conversation with his post Low value, throw away comments - why are they made?, so if you want to follow the entire discussion, check that out.

The Problem

In brief, there's a free-rider problem with downzapping. Whoever downzaps bad content pays the full cost of the downzap, while we all benefit from bad content being outlawed. That means we each have an incentive to let someone else do the downzapping, which leads to less/slower downzapping than would be optimal.

Possible Solutions

Status Quo

First off, we may not need to do anything. The tools currently available to us (downzapping, muting, ignoring) may be sufficient. As I review the literature on public goods games, oftentimes simply allowing peer punishment performs better than more complex punishment schemes.

It also appears that individualized positive rewards for contributions, like we have, perform better than punishment in some experiments.

Use the Current Rewards System

To me, the most obvious option (which certainly doesn't mean it's the right one), is to fold this into the rewards system. Downzapping bad content early could be treated the same way as zapping good content early. There are disincentives to downzapping good content that are already in place (it hurts your trust score), so we shouldn't have a major downzapping problem.

I'm thinking that "bad content" would mean content that got outlawed. There could also be a cap on what gets rewarded, by not counting downzaps on content that is already outlawed.

Use the Trust System

In the comments of the linked post (https://stacker.news/items/619397/r/Undisciplined?commentId=619707), @Signal312 and @didiplaywell were discussing the possibility of having muting impact trust scores. It makes sense to me that muting someone should drive your trust score with them to zero.

Would something like that be sufficient to reduce the reach of spammers, to the point that they don't bother trying? Btw, check out their comments, because there's more detail and substance than I'm relaying.

The trust system is part of developing a reputation on SN, in addition to your literal reputation amongst the stackers. Many public goods experiments have found reputation to be very effective at reducing anti-social behavior.

Stacker Sherrifs

Here's a fun idea that came out of talking to @Coinsreporter and @carlosfandango (https://stacker.news/items/619793/r/Undisciplined?commentId=620797). We could have sheriffs of Stacker News! How on brand is that?

It turns out there are some papers demonstrating that designated punishers can be superior to strictly relying on peer punishers. One of those papers even finds that randomly designating the punisher each round is the most stable solution to sharing the costs of punishment.

This could be implemented right alongside current downzapping. The sheriff(s) would be notified of their status first thing in the morning and that's that. The literature appears to indicate that human altruism will take care of the rest.

Extra bells and whistles * There could be a tip jar that gets divvied up amongst the sheriffs. * They could get the rewards described above for downzapping. * Their downzaps could be stronger.

Conclusion

We may be fine as is, but there are also some interesting options to pursue that would reduce the likelihood of a serious spam problem emerging. Downzapping and reputation are likely the most important tools to have and we already have them.

Minor tweaks to the rewards and trust systems could help, but should be undertaken with caution. We don't want to over incentivize downzapping, since we're probably near the optimum already.

Simply selecting a few random sheriffs everyday would be extremely on brand and there's a good chance that it would help.

References

https://thecommonsjournal.org/articles/10.18352/ijc.426 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11403-022-00363-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-57842-0 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1367-2630/16/8/083016 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2008.1082

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/621288

Eu não sou nenhum especialista em economia, certamente este terá alguns erros, mas adoro pensar/imaginar/ tentar prever a evolução de uma sociedade FIAT para uma sociedade cada vez mais bitcoinizada, até o Bitcoin se tornar a unidade de conta do mundo.

Apenas vou analisar o crédito destinado ao retalho/varejo, a pessoas ou a empresas. Os empréstimos entre instituições bancárias, entre os bancos centrais e emissão de dívida soberana, ficam para uma futura segunda parte.

A adoção do Bitcoin como unidade de conta, vai provocar uma disrupção completa na sociedade, na economia e em todo sistema financeiro. O Bitcoin vai trazer ganhos incalculáveis para a sociedade, vai ser mais justa e equitativa. Também poderá ter alguns viés, um deles são os contratos de crédito, mas os benefícios superam em muito os “danos”.

A parte dos contratos créditos/empréstimos, talvez seja a área da economia na qual eu tenho mais dificuldade em imaginar, deixa-me com imensas dúvidas.

Reserva Fracionária

Antes de avançar na reflexão sobre o crédito, é importante primeiro falar de um conceito moderno do sistema bancário, a reserva fracionária.

O sistema de reserva fracionária refere-se à prática bancária, adotada na maioria dos países do mundo, que permite que os bancos façam empréstimos ou investimentos em valor muito superior ao valor dos depósitos sob sua guarda, desde que mantenham como reserva uma determinada fração do valor desses depósitos. Esse sistema permite que os bancos emprestem a maior parte dos depósitos a vista, retendo compulsoriamente apenas uma fração desses depósitos. O sistema de reservas fracionárias baseia-se na crença de que os depositantes não sacarão o seu dinheiro ao mesmo tempo. Se o fizessem, os bancos não teriam como atender a demanda, ou seja, quebrariam. Uma vez que os depósitos bancários são normalmente considerados como dinheiro e dado que os bancos mantêm reservas inferiores ao valor total dos depósitos de clientes, a reserva fracionária permite que a oferta monetária cresça além do montante da base monetária originalmente criada pelo banco central. – Wikipedia

Na prática, a reserva fracionária permite aos bancos comerciais emprestar mais dinheiro do que têm, ou seja, criam dinheiro do nada.

O cidadão comum tem uma ideia errada, de como funciona o crédito, acreditam que os bancos utilizam os depósitos de clientes para dar liquidez nos empréstimos, mas não corresponde à verdade. Quando um banco “vende” um crédito, cria dinheiro do nada, não utiliza o dinheiro dos depósitos dos clientes. É nos créditos onde se imprime mais dinheiro, sim, os bancos comerciais também têm o poder de imprimir dinheiro, não é algo exclusivo dos bancos centrais.

Assim, em cada novo empréstimo realizado, aumenta a base monetária.

Em quase todas as grandes crises financeiras/económicas que assolaram a humanidade tem em comum, na origem existe uma grande expansão da base monetária. Umas vezes foram geradas pelos bancos centrais/estados, outras foram pelos bancos comerciais.

A atual política monetária (incluindo a reserva fracionária) distorce por completo o risco. Como o risco de falência de uma instituição bancária, é nulo, em último caso, o pai estado está lá para resgatar e salvar o banco. Foi exatamente o que aconteceu em 2007, na crise subprime, houve um excesso de crédito, criou uma enorme bolha no imobiliário, o seu colapso levou as instituições à pré-falência, os estados foram obrigados a intervir, resgatando os bancos.

O risco é essencial e saudável, a existência de risco leva os credores /instituições bancárias a serem mais criteriosas e exigentes ao atribuir um crédito. Pelo contrário, a ausência de risco, leva ao facilitismo, ao excesso e ao abuso no crédito.

O abuso cria bolhas no mercado imobiliário, nos mercados financeiros, distorcem o mundo empresarial. O juro zero permitiu criar empresas zumbi, startups que nunca tiveram lucros, algumas chegaram a ser unicórnios. Como o dinheiro é barato, existe um excesso de liquidez, os VCs (Venture Capital) investem em tudo que mexe, sem qualquer critério.

Mas isto não é viável para sempre, a seguir ao excesso, acontece uma forte correção, uma crise severa. Para combater essa crise, os governos vão despejar dinheiro no mercado para estimular o consumo. Ou seja, a “solução” para a crise é a mesma que esteve na origem da crise, a expansão monetária. Isto cria um círculo vicioso de crises, crises recorrentes, ou como os economistas dizem, ciclos de mercado.

Na teoria, a taxa de juro, corresponde ao risco de incumprimento por parte do devedor. Quanto maior o risco de incumprimento, maior é a taxa de juro e/ou mais garantias exigidas pelo banco. Na prática, como o risco é zero, a taxa de juro está completamente distorcida pelos bancos centrais, levou a certas aberrações, como a taxa de juro zero ou mesmo negativas.

O padrão Bitcoin, não significa o fim da reserva fracionária, poderá existir, mas como o risco é elevadíssimo para as instituições bancárias, é provável que não o façam ou haverá com valores muito residuais.

Com algumas diferenças, mas foi o que aconteceu na FTX, as reservas eram muito inferiores ao valor total dos depósitos de clientes, na prática, eles fizeram reserva fracionária. Quando os clientes/depositantes foram levantar os seus ativos digitais, eles não existiam. Inevitável a FTX faliu.

A adoção Bitcoin é um forte acelerador para o fim da reserva fracionária, para um sistema monetário sólido, baseado na verdade e na transparência. Bitcoin é uma moeda ética.

Crédito

Eu não sou contra o crédito, pelo contrário, em certas circunstâncias é importante para a economia. Eu sou, é contra a reserva fracionária, permite que os bancos comerciais criem dinheiro do nada, sem assumir qualquer risco. Na minha opinião, os bancos comerciais devem ter full-reserve, a reserva fracionária deve ser proibida, para que os depósitos de clientes estejam completamente seguros, mesmo em situações críticas. Em caso de corrida bancária, o dinheiro está lá, não haverá problemas.

É o oposto do atual sistema, que foi construído em cima de uma castelo de cartas, que pode desmoronar a qualquer momento. O sistema bancário é muito frágil, qualquer dia, um influencer qualquer com milhões de seguidores, com um grande poder de influência, pode apelar aos seus seguidores para retirar o dinheiro do banco X, e em poucas horas esse banco colapsa. Em Portugal, o Banif foi alegadamente à falência, devido a uma corrida bancária, após uma notícia emitida no notíciario de um canal televisivo. Isto só é possível porque o sistema é frágil, o sistema financeiro tem que ser blindado, não pode estar a mercê de um influencer ou de uma televisão ou de uma fakenews.

O atual modelo de crédito tem que mudar, os bancos têm que deixar de ser os credores, devem apenas fazer a intermediação, entre devedor e o credor.

Têm que existir uma segregação entre os depósitos dos clientes do banco e o dinheiro dos credores. Assim o risco, fica em exclusivo de quem dá a liquidez (credor), o banco está totalmente sólido, além disso não existirá um aumento da base monetária.

O fim da reserva fracionária, não é o fim do crédito, mas não será tão acessível, haverá mais exigências, maiores garantias e as taxas de juros serão superiores.

Sociedade de crédito

Nós vivemos numa sociedade altamente consumista, totalmente dependente/viciada em crédito, com alta preferência temporal. Isso só é possível devido ao sistema fiduciário (FIAT), com crédito fácil e barato, que incentiva o consumismo exacerbado.

O fim da expansão monetária será o fim do crédito barato, será o fim uma aberração da era moderna, as taxas de juro zero ou negativas. A reserva fracionária será extremamente arriscada, os bancos que o fizeram correm altos riscos. Atualmente, como o risco é zero ou baixo para todos os intervenientes no crédito, todos beneficiam, distorcendo o mercado. Com um risco zero, gera um forte incentivo ao crédito por parte do consumidor, os bancos atribuem indiscriminadamente os créditos, sem qualquer critério. O devedor têm taxas de juros mais baixas e os bancos não correm risco de insolvência porque têm uma proteção do pai estado. O estado também não tem qualquer risco, se for necessário salvar um banco, é só imprimir dinheiro, o custo é zero.

Isto parece tudo um mar de rosas, todos estão felizes e contentes, mas na realidade, isto é tudo uma ilusão, ao criar dinheiro, cria inflação. A inflação destrói as poupanças dos cidadãos, é um imposto oculto, além de ser altamente perverso, em dois sentidos; Primeiro: beneficia os devedores, mas quem é penalizado são os poupadores, na sociedade no geral; Segundo: beneficia os ricos em detrimento dos pobres, efeito Cantillon.

Crédito à habitação

O problema do acesso ao crédito será visível sobretudo na habitação, porque nos restantes créditos, a sociedade adapta-se. Se não houver dinheiro para um carro novo, opta por um carro usado, ou então por um de cilindrada mais baixa.

No caso da habitação é mais complexo, já não existe essa flexibilidade, devido ao elevado valor, tanto das novas como das velhas habitações.

Este problema é sobretudo visível nos países ocidentais, que durante anos aproveitaram o privilégio de taxas de juros mais baixas, permitia fazer crédito à habitação com maturidade muito longas, superiores a 30 anos. Países com problemas cambiais, as maturidade sempre foram mais curtas, já estão habituados a taxas de juros mais elevadas.

O problema ainda é mais grave em certos países ocidentais, como o caso de Portugal, onde o mercado de arrendamento é muito pequeno e a única alternativa dos jovens, é ter habitação própria. Mas devido ao valor exorbitante das habitação, a única solução era através do crédito com maturidade extensa. Com o fim do crédito barato, o crédito à habitação inevitavelmente terá que ser bastante mais curto, talvez um máximo 10 anos, possivelmente o crédito apenas financiará metade do valor do imóvel, o restante terá que ser poupanças.

Em Portugal e em muitos outros países, muito poucos os jovens conseguem cumprir esses requisitos, para ter acesso a uma casa.

Para resolver o problema, os políticos vão optar pelo mais fácil, vão ter planos “milagrosos”, como créditos bonificados, garantias ilimitadas aos bancos e muitos outros artifícios. Na prática, isto será uma reserva fracionária travestida. Apenas resulta numa distorção completa no mercado.

A ideia do Bitcoin como reserva de valor, como uma proteção contra a inflação é sedutora, atrai muita gente. Mas com a crescente adoção, as pessoas vão se aperceber que o crédito não será tão acessível, como anteriormente. Ao aperceberam-se do fim do crédito barato, será que não vai provocar um atraso ou mesmo um retrocesso na adoção do Bitcoin?

Será que a sociedade está disponível para perder o acesso ao crédito barato?

Não sei a resposta.

Evolução no crédito

Com a alteração do padrão FIAT para o padrão Bitcoin, o crédito vai sofrer uma evolução e a sociedade terá que se adaptar.

Atualmente estamos no padrão FIAT, o crédito é simples e barato.

A moeda fiduciária é inflacionária e o Bitcoin está com uma aquisição de poder de compra crescente, permite fazer um ataque especulativo entre as moedas. É o que Michael Saylor faz, realizando créditos em dólares para comprar Bitcoin. Como o Bitcoin tem uma valorização contra dólar, beneficia.

No período de transição entre os dois padrões, talvez exista um momento, onde será muito complicado a realização de contratos de crédito. Com o Bitcoin numa fase avançada na adoção mas a unidade de conta ainda é a FIAT, como existe uma forte volatilidade nas duas moedas, a FIAT com uma desvalorização acelerada e o Bitcoin será o oposto, torna-se difícil o crédito.

Como ninguém quer ter FIAT, a taxa de juro terá que ser muito elevada, serão poucas as pessoas a conseguir fazer um crédito em FIAT. Em alternativa podem surgir os créditos com o valor facial em Bitcoin, mas o risco também será muito elevado para quem realiza o crédito. Como o Bitcoin está numa fase de valorização, mas as pessoas continuam a ter vencimentos em FIAT, torna-se impossível cumprir os seus compromissos, especialmente a longo prazo.

Imaginem que o crédito, corresponde a uma prestação de 0.01Btc por mês. A primeira prestação corresponde a 40% do salário, passado um ano seria 70%, passando outro ano, seria maior que o salário, era impossível cumprir.

Nesta fase, o crédito será muito pouco acessível, em ambas moedas. Quanto maior for a volatilidade, mais difícil será o crédito.

Com a crescente adoção do Bitcoin, a sua volatilidade ficará muito baixa, o crédito voltará a ser possível para o comum cidadão, mas todos os contratos de créditos serão precificados em BTC. O Bitcoin será a unidade de conta.

Bancos comerciais

Com o fim da reserva fracionária, os bancos comerciais terão um papel muito diferente do atual, na parte dos contratos de crédito serão apenas intermediários, vão redigir os contratos, fazer a análise de risco, avaliar os colaterais. O banco não vai dar liquidez, serão terceiros a dar, ou pessoas ou empresas. A yield será definida por quem dá a liquidez, num modelo similar aos leilões de dívida pública.

Neste modelo, os bancos estão mais seguros, não terão problema devido ao incumprimento do crédito, esse risco será do credor. Os bancos passam a desempenhar o seu papel original, os depósitos, guardar o dinheiro dos clientes e alguns produtos de intermediação, mas em nenhum momento compromete a liquidez da instituição. É o oposto do que acontece hoje, onde o crédito coloca em causa a solvência do banco, com o fim das reservas bancárias, os bancos são mais resilientes, as corridas bancárias deixam de ser um problema.

Com o surgimento dos smartcontracts nas blockchains, o crédito entrou numa nova era, é uma revolução mas ainda tem algumas limitações, sobretudo no colateral. Os bancos vão desempenhar um papel fundamental, vão avaliar e fazer a guarda dos colaterais, será criado um token RWA.

RWA

Os Real World Assets (RWA) ainda está numa fase inicial, mas será um filão para os bancos.

No último ano surgiram inúmeros projetos de tokens de RWA, é uma nova moda, são tokens de governança, eu não acredito neste tipo de produto. São autênticos scans, não têm qualquer valor. Isto é algo muito recorrente no mundo cripto, pegam num conceito muito interessante, útil para a sociedade, mas depois desvirtuam por completo o conceito inicial, com o único intuito de enriquecer, é a ganância no estado puro. Um bom exemplo são os NFTs, é uma tecnologia interessante para os certificados de autenticidade ou para ingressos. O objectivo é garantir prevenir a contrafacção, mas os degenerados transformam os NFTs num produto de especuladores, uma via para enriquecer. O mesmo acontece com estes RWAs, é sobretudo tokens de governança, sem qualquer valor, pura especulação.

Os RWAs que eu acredito, que terão valor, na prática são garantias bancárias ou hipotecas (de um bem móvel ou imóvel), ações, título do governo, em formato digital, um token. São tokens emitidos e geridos por uma entidade centralizada, sobretudo bancos. Cada token corresponde a um ativo real/físico. Esta entidade fará a avaliação, a guarda desse ativo real e cria esse token e fará a sua gestão, é a segurança jurídica.

Vamos a dois exemplos concretos: Um caso, pode ser uma garantia bancária digital, em formato token. Depositamos 10.000€ no banco, é um criada uma garantia bancária digital (token) nesse valor.

Outro caso, eu tenho um quadro/pintura, é avaliado, é criado um token. O quadro ficará à guarda do banco, é uma hipoteca.

Qual a vantagem destes RWAs?

Com eles é possível fazer smartcontracts e utilizá-lo como colateral, existe uma infindável possibilidade, a principal será para contratos de créditos. Em caso de incumprimento do contrato, o credor vai exercer o direito ao colateral ao banco, o banco será a segurança jurídica, um intermédio de confiança.

Em nenhum momento, estes tokens valorizam, o valor está no bem físico que representam. Infelizmente o que está a ser criado agora, não faz sentido, não é necessário criar blockchains exclusivas, também não é necessário criar um token nativo para essas blockchains. Os degenerados só querem produtos especulativos, mas eu ainda tenho a esperança que isto seja corrigido, os verdadeiros NFTs e RWAs vão dominar.

Crédito colateralizados em Bitcoin

Os créditos colateralizados em Bitcoin é uma ideia que circula muito na comunidade de bitcoiners maximalistas, como uma possibilidade para o futuro. Em vez de vender o BTCs, as pessoas vivem de créditos colateralizados em BTC, que são renovados perpetuamente, por isso eu gosto de os chamar créditos perpétuos.

Como funciona?

Consiste em pedir crédito com colateral em BTCs, quando a maturidade terminar, será pago com um novo crédito. Como o Bitcoin valoriza mais que o FIAT ao longo do tempo, o colateral necessário será cada vez menor.

Exemplo:

• Fazer um crédito de 30.000€, com uma maturidade a 4 anos, com um colateral de 1 BTC (o dobro, BTC=60.000€).
• Passado os 4 anos, a maturidade termina e o bitcoin vale 120.000€. É feito um novo crédito idêntico, mas com um colateral de 0.5 BTC.
• Passado outros 4 anos, o BTC já vale 240.000€, é realizado um novo crédito mas com um colateral de 0.25 BTC. Esta operação pode ser repetida infinitamente, com o passar do tempo, o colateral será cada vez menor.

Para uma melhor compreensão do exemplo, eu simplifiquei ao máximo a ideia, porque nestas equações falta incluir a taxa de juro da instituição de crédito e outros custos da operação.

Em teoria, esta engenharia financeira funciona, desde que a valorização do Bitcoin contra o FIAT, seja superior aos custos do crédito.

Posso estar errado, mas esta engenharia financeira, apenas é viável quando a unidade de conta é uma moeda FIAT. Existem bitcoiners que desejam um mundo bitcoinizado e ao mesmo tempo querem usufruir destes créditos perpétuos, no meu ponto de vista não é possível acontecer os dois em simultâneo.

Conclusão

Eu tenho muitas dúvidas, mas uma coisa é certa, o crédito nunca estará ameaçado, existirá sempre a possibilidade de realizar crédito. As alterações mais profundas apenas ocorrerão com o fim da reserva fracionária, mesmo nessa situação, existirá, mas será sempre mais responsável. Esta é a palavra chave, o que falta ao atual sistema, RESPONSABILIDADE.

Este sistema monetário está caduco, mas como um dos principais benefícios são os políticos, eles não fazem nada para mudar, pelo contrário, vão/estão a fazer tudo para o manter. Os políticos têm que ser mais responsáveis, aprender a viver com menos e não hipotecar o futuro dos seus netos.

Eu ainda tenho muitas dúvidas, se alguma vez, o padrão Bitcoin na sua plenitude vai acontecer, pelo menos, eu acredito não estar vivo nesse momento. Os políticos vão fazer tudo para procrastinar, só dentro de muitas décadas a mudança poderá ocorrer. Os políticos são idiotas, mas são extremamente camaleônicos, vão se adaptar para se manter no poder, é a luta pela sobrevivência.

A mudança começa em cada um de nós, se a maioria mudar, a sociedade muda. Necessitamos de uma população com uma preferência temporal mais baixa, menos consumista.

O Bitcoin, primeiro muda o nosso eu, a nossa maneira de ver o mundo, só depois mudar a sociedade.

Fix the money, Fix the World!

As recentes notícias da não renovação do acordo do Petro-dólar entre os EUA e a Arábia Saudita, fez ressurgir numa parte da comunidade de bitcoiners, que o fim do dólar está para breve. Na realidade não é bem assim, é verdade que estamos numa fase de desdolarização, mas este processo vai demorar muitas décadas. Possivelmente muitos de nós, infelizmente, não vamos assistir a essa mudança, a nossa esperança de vida não vai o permitir.

Bretton Woods

Olhando para trás, o acordo de Bretton Woods foi uma fase transitória na nossa história, foi a transição da política monetária internacional do padrão ouro para o padrão fiduciário(FIAT). Foi um acordo entre estados, os povos não tiveram qualquer intervenção. Esse processo transitório, durou quase trinta anos, qualquer que seja a mudança no sistema monetária é sempre extremamente demorado.

Curiosamente, o acordo terminou, não pela vontade das “vítimas”, mas através do principal beneficiado.

Primeiro as moedas eram fabricadas em ouro, depois surgiu o papel moeda que era lastreada no ouro. Com os acordos de Bretton Woods, em 1944, passaram a ter o moeda com lastro indirecto no ouro(através do dólar). Em 1971, com o fim de Bretton Woods, a moeda ficou sem qualquer lastro (FIAT).

Em 1971 passamos a utilizar uma moeda baseada em confiança, pior ainda, somos obrigados a confiar na honestidade de políticos.

Passamos de método baseado na escassez, com muita força monetária para o seu oposto, uma moeda sem lastro. De um dia para o outro, descartamos milhares de anos de evolução da civilização. Após o fim de Bretton Woods, entramos numa experiência, que dura até hoje.

Pensando bem, a moeda FIAT tem lastro, esse lastro é a dívida emitida pelo próprio estado. Isso significa, que o lastro nunca foi tão forte… Como em qualquer empresa, o último responsável pelas suas dívidas são os seus acionistas. A empresa para financiar e para pagar as dívidas, faz aumentos de capital, emite novas ações. Mas a empresa mantém o mesmo valor, apenas aumenta o número de ações, isso significa que cada ação vale menos. É como a história da pizza, em vez de 6, cortamos a pizza em 12 fatias, é verdade que são mais fatias mas a pizza mantem o mesmo tamanho, as fatias é que ficaram menores. No caso das moedas, cada centimo/centavo é uma ação. É preferível ter o Bitcoin sem lastro, do que ter uma moeda lastreada em dívidas, mas isto é apenas uma conjectura minha, ignorando isto e sendo um pouco ingénuo, vamos acreditar nos políticos e aceitar que o FIAT não tem lastro.

Na minha opinião estamos num processo de reversão desta evolução da moeda pós Bretton Woods, estamos a voltar a algo com força monetária, só que em vez de ouro, será o Bitcoin.

Adoção voluntária

A mudança para o padrão FIAT foi forçada, ninguém ouviu a opinião dos povos, se queriam o fim do padrão ouro, se aceitavam ou não os acordos de Bretton Woods, foram forçados a utilizar papéis coloridos sem lastro.

O Padrão Bitcoin é o seu oposto, a adoção é completamente voluntária. Satoshi redigiu o acordo (a política monetária) e dia após dia as pessoas voluntariamente aderem ao acordo, adotando o Bitcoin, sem a existência de uma lei de uso forçado.

Como a adesão é voluntária pelas pessoas, o processo transitório ainda será muito mais lento que o do FIAT. E é importante que essa transição seja lenta, para que as pessoas se adaptem à mudança, porque uma mudança abrupta seria desastrosa. A mudança para o padrão Bitcoin não é uma simples mudança de moeda, é a mudança completa do sistema político, financeiro, económico e social de toda sociedade. Essa transição terá que ser lenta, para que cada pessoa se adapte, cada uma ao seu ritmo. Se correr mal a adaptação, as pessoas podem querer voltar ao antigo padrão.

Adoção forçada

Os estados vão resistir, mas com o crescimento da adoção do Bitcoin pelos cidadão e em simultâneo a rejeição da moeda FIAT, os estados não terão outra alternativa, senão adotar o Bitcoin como lastro o Bitcoin para o lastro da sua moeda, para evitar o colapso do sistema monetário.

Só será possível e viável quando o Bitcoin atingir um valor significativamente alto, talvez entre 10%-20% da riqueza mundial. O marketcap do Bitcoin terá que ser muito alto, para conseguir suportar a procura gerada por parte dos estados, sem criar muita volatilidade. É natural que o preço suba, mas essa subida terá que ser gradual, não poderá ser exponencialmente. É natural que os primeiros países a adotar sejam os mais pequenos ou menos desenvolvidos. Em caso de muita volatilidade e uma subida repentina de preço do bitcoin, gerada pela adoção de países mais desenvolvidos, pode provocar o colapso dos países pequenos que aderiram primeiro. Por esse motivo a adoção deve ser lenta e gradual.

Num certo momento, será inevitável um acordo internacional entre estados, será algo similar ao de Bretton Woods, só que em vez do dólar teremos o Bitcoin. O comércio internacional passará a realizar-se em Bitcoin, como unidade de conta. Internamente, cada país vai manter a sua própria moeda, será a unidade de conta do país, mas as moedas serão lastreadas em Bitcoin, cada unidade monetária terá um valor de x satoshis. Esse câmbio poderá ser flutuante ou fixo, pré definido pelos bancos centrais.

Na prática haverá em simultâneo duas moedas em circulação, o Bitcoin e a moeda do governo, mas apenas a moeda do governo será a legal tender, a unidade de conta do país. O Bitcoin será utilizado sobretudo por pessoas e empresas como uma reserva de valor para médio/longo prazo.

Como ainda existem moedas governamentais, ainda é possível a expansão da base monetária mas ficará um pouco mais limitada, ou seja, se os estados abusarem da expansão, os cidadãos vão fugir em massa para o Bitcoin, por isso as políticas têm que ser moderadas. Será algo similar à curva de Laffer, em vez de carga-fiscal&receita, temos expansão impressão&alocação, ou seja, quanto maior for a expansão da base monetária, menor será a porcentagem alocada na moeda do governo por parte das pessoas.

Assim o Bitcoin será um travão para a expansão da base monetária, mas isto não significa que não existirá, claro que vai existir, os estados estão viciados em imprimir dinheiro, terão é que fazer com um maior rigor. Se existir rigor, vai permitir “dar” anos de vida às moedas dos governos. Se não existir rigor, a hiperinflação acontecerá e a Lei de Gresham será implacável, o colapso da moeda do governo é inevitável.

Adoção total

Será que alguma vez vamos assistir os países a abandonarem por completo a sua própria moeda e utilizar em exclusivo o Bitcoin?

Poderá existir alguns casos, talvez em países pequenos, mas será muito pouco provável a adoção plena do Bitcoin, como único legal tender e a unidade de conta.

A minha baixa crença baseia-se em exemplos do passado: o bolívar da Venezuela está há décadas em hiperinflação, o dólar é amplamente utilizado, mas eles não abandonam a moeda própria, apenas retiram zeros. Depois temos os exemplos da Argentina e do Zimbabwe, que por momentos deixaram de ter moeda própria, mas mais tarde voltaram a repor.

Isto vai repetir-se no futuro, até poderão temporariamente adotar o Bitcoin, mas mais tarde ou mais cedo, alguém é eleito e repõe um moeda própria. O ser humano é assim e os governos necessitam da moeda para sobreviver.

Como os estados têm o poder absoluto, são eles que fazem a lei e o uso forçado dá uma força desmedida à sua própria moeda, é uma concorrência desleal contra a adoção do Bitcoin. Simplesmente por obrigar os cidadãos a pagar os impostos exclusivamente na moeda do governo, isso gera uma demanda enorme pela moeda, os cidadãos e empresas são obrigadas a ter a moeda estatal. Além disso, o governo fará todos os seus pagamentos na sua moeda. As empresas que prestem serviços vão receber na moeda do estado, e por sua vez pagam aos seus funcionários. O mesmo acontecerá aos funcionários públicos, reformados e todas as assistências sociais serão pagos na moeda do estado, todas estas transações representam uma cota significativa do mercado.

O uso forçado dá um poder tremendo à moeda do estado, enquanto for exclusivo de uma única moeda, essa terá sempre uma cota significativa de mercado. Por isso as moedas estatais conseguem sobreviver, mesmo em hiperinflação. A concorrência entre moedas só será plena para o uso no médio a longo prazo, aqui veremos o Bitcoin a dominar. Onde existir liberdade o Bitcoin vencerá.

A nossa sociedade cresceu numa economia inflacionária, a mudança será tão disruptiva, não sei se as pessoas estão preparadas ou se querem realmente a mudança para um sistema deflacionário. No geral, um sistema deflacionário é melhor para as populações, mas certo “benefícios” que hoje existem devido aos sistema FIAT, deixarão de estar acessíveis, como o caso do crédito barato. Os governos terão que ser muito austeros e terão que reduzir os apoios sociais, ou seja, os governos não serão populares, possivelmente perdem eleições. A impressão de moeda é essencial nos estados modernos, sem ela dificilmente os governos sobrevivem.

Eu acredito que o mais difícil, é a adaptação psicológica ao sistema deflacionário? Não sei como as pessoas vão reagir, os salários em vez de aumentarem anualmente, vão manter se ou possivelmente diminuir. Apesar de diminuir, as pessoas ganham poder de compra, é uma mudança disruptiva, completamente oposta à realidade atual e que sempre vivemos.

Por isso, eu tenho muitas dúvidas que aconteça uma adoção plena do padrão Bitcoin. Eu não gosto de ver o Bitcoin como legal tender, isto implica o uso forçado, eu sou um forte defensor da liberdade monetária, dar liberdade plena aos cidadãos, cada cidadão escolhe a moeda que quer usar. Se o cidadão quer usar a moeda do estado, que use, quem sou eu para limitar essa liberdade. Poderá também usar várias moedas e com diferentes percentagens de alocação da sua riqueza.

O Bitcoin também não necessita de ser a moeda mais utilizada em cada país, basta ser a segunda. Sendo a segunda mais utilizada em todos os países, torna-se naturalmente a moeda mais utilizada no mundo.

Outro problema do Bitcoin como legal tender, os cidadãos vão baixar a guarda, vão depositar os satoshi em custodiantes centralizados, ficando vulneráveis a uma futura mudança de política, um corralito como na Argentina. Nunca devemos confiar nos políticos, já Eça dizia: ”Os políticos são como fraldas e devem ser mudados frequentemente pela mesma razão”.

Don’t trust, Verify.

This is my preliminary cheat sheet, taken largely from my write-ups on QB, RB, WR and TE, and adjusted slightly after getting some feedback from readers. I still haven’t yet looked at NFFC ADP and will probably adjust further to account for market-based information.

I'll update this throughout the preseason.

Hey everyone! I'm super excited to announce that Global Sports Central and Nos.Social have teamed up to bring you the most epic coverage of the Parisien Olympics! 🎊

With this amazing partnership, tks Linda, we'll be bringing you live updates, stats, and behind-the-scenes fun straight from the action! Nostr's revolutionary technology will let us share real-time insights, stunning visuals, and insider info that'll make you feel like you're there in Paris, cheering on the athletes! 🏃‍♂️

Get ready for an unforgettable experience as we bring you the most exciting, inspiring, and jaw-dropping moments from the Olympics! Stay tuned for more updates and fun stuff, and don't forget to get in the Exclusive Relay for live coverage! 📱 If you use Nos.Social you're already in 🎉💥

Global Sports Central 🌐 #GSC360 - @npub1qspus6smkn8mcdxg5jflh50s69vdgtwsd5p74gmjpzp2qekn5duqfv5afj 🗼

Nos.Social - @npub1pu3vqm4vzqpxsnhuc684dp2qaq6z69sf65yte4p39spcucv5lzmqswtfch 🚀

Table Of Content

• The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

• Greed

• Panic Selling

• Euphoria

• Confirmation Bias

• The Herd Mentality

• Conclusion

• FAQ

In recent years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have become increasingly popular investment options. However, investing in these digital currencies can be a rollercoaster ride of emotions, with investors experiencing everything from fear and greed to euphoria and panic. In this article, we will explore the psychology behind Bitcoin investing and help you understand the emotions that drive cryptocurrency investment decisions.

The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

One of the most powerful emotions driving Bitcoin investing is the fear of missing out, or FOMO. Investors see the price of Bitcoin rising rapidly and worry that if they don't invest now, they will miss out on potential profits. This fear can lead to impulsive buying decisions and a rush to invest before prices rise even further.

Greed

Greed is another powerful emotion that can drive cryptocurrency investment decisions. Investors may see the potential for huge returns and become greedy, hoping to make a quick profit. This can lead to impulsive buying decisions and a lack of rational thinking when it comes to investment strategies.

Panic Selling

Bitcoin investing can also be driven by panic, particularly when prices start to fall. Investors may become anxious and worry that they will lose money, leading them to sell their Bitcoin in a panic. This can lead to a snowball effect, with more and more investors selling and causing prices to plummet even further.

Euphoria

On the other hand, when prices are rising rapidly, investors may experience a sense of euphoria. This can lead to overconfidence and irrational investment decisions, as investors believe that the price will continue to rise indefinitely.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is a psychological phenomenon in which people interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs or biases. This can be particularly dangerous when it comes to Bitcoin investing, as investors may only seek out information that confirms their belief that Bitcoin is a good investment. This can lead to a lack of critical thinking and a failure to consider alternative viewpoints.

The Herd Mentality

Finally, the herd mentality can also drive Bitcoin investing. Investors may see others investing in Bitcoin and feel pressured to do the same. This can lead to a lack of independent thinking and a failure to consider the risks and potential downsides of investing in Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be a rollercoaster ride of emotions, with investors experiencing everything from fear and greed to euphoria and panic. The psychology behind Bitcoin investing is driven by powerful emotions such as the fear of missing out, greed, panic, euphoria, confirmation bias, and the herd mentality. Understanding these emotions is essential for making rational, informed investment decisions and avoiding the pitfalls of impulsive buying and selling.

FAQ

Can emotions impact the value of Bitcoin? Yes, emotions can impact the value of Bitcoin, particularly when investors panic and sell their Bitcoin in large quantities, leading to a snowball effect.

What is confirmation bias, and how does it impact Bitcoin investing? Confirmation bias is a psychological phenomenon in which people interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs or biases. It can lead to a lack of critical thinking and a failure to consider alternative viewpoints in Bitcoin investing.

How can investors avoid the herd mentality when investing in Bitcoin? Investors can avoid the herd mentality by doing their research and making investment decisions based on their own analysis and assessment of the risks and potential rewards of investing in Bitcoin, rather than following the crowd.

How can investors manage their emotions when investing in Bitcoin? Investors can manage their emotions by setting realistic investment goals, having a long-term investment strategy, and avoiding emotional decisions based on short-term market fluctuations.

How can investors cope with the volatility of Bitcoin? Investors can cope with the volatility of Bitcoin by diversifying their investments, setting stop-loss orders, and having a long-term investment horizon.

Can education and knowledge help investors manage their emotions when investing in Bitcoin? Yes, education and knowledge can help investors manage their emotions by understanding the underlying technology and the risks and potential rewards of investing in Bitcoin. This can help investors make informed decisions based on facts and analysis rather than emotions.

That's all for today

If you want more, be sure to follow us on:

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

I've spent a lot of time on shitcoin Twitter, bitcoin Twitter, and Reddit's r/wallstreetbets in the past. Nothing is more common among these places than the diamond hands/paper hands narrative, with some variations of the hands type like weak, strong, lettuce, etc. Also, everybody saw memes like 300 Spartans holding their bags or something like that.

At the same time, we have another narrative where money is a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. And Bitcoin is money, it's generational wealth, it's everything divided by 21M, right?

So how do we do diamond hands to medium of exchange shift? Some might argue, that if you buy goods and services in bitcoin, it's not selling, so you just keep your diamond hands title and sprinkling your dust diamonds on sellers while you are passing by in a carriage and they bring you goods to your citadel later. And then they go and sell it for Micky Mouse money. In other words, if you buy something in Bitcoin, but the seller instantly sells it after for fiat - isn't it same as selling? Not taxwise, but a philosophical question here. Or you "don't care / never sell"?

So you sell 1st and then buy - paper hands You buy 1st and then the seller sells - diamond hands.

Ok, some might argue let's call it spending and converting, spending on goods and services is fine, converting to fiat to buy goods and services is bad. You need to support a circular economy, and to support it - it needs to exist or you need to create it. How do you create it - you spend your bitcoin.

Cause if you are holding your diamond balls in your diamond hands sitting in your half-built citadel nothing is going to change. It's like wanting revolution while sitting in your castle and waiting for others to do the job. We need revolutionists, we need actions. We needed Laszlo_Hanyecz. And all these heroes (or call them misfits) of revolution will bleed, they will bleed so others can learn from them. They will fuck up their lightning nodes, get hacked, and people will laugh at them as they zapped the whole kids' college fund on a single meme and spent the whole block subsidy of 2084 on a cup of coffee. But without spenders nothing will happen.

So the whole diamond hands/paper hands narrative is broken, leave this meme for shitcoinery, it doesn't help Bitcoin in the long run. When people hear this there is a strong connection with stocks and shitcoins. And Bitcoin is not another asset in your portfolio. It's your future life. And in your future life, you are going to spend, sell, convert, earn, save, you gonna do all these things. Because if you don't do it it will just not work. And there will be no future we hope for.

Now, some toxic spenders will spend their Bitcoin to buy goods from you or return the money for a coffee and then shame and bully you in oblivion if you try to sell your Bitcoin. Fine, we need them too, shame your friends, just don't make it a global narrative. Cause Bitcoin is for our kids and grandkids.

I can't tell my kids to have diamond hands and shame them for the paper hands later, that's ridiculous. Remember when you were a kid and you were saving money for something, not saving money for the sake of money? They are these kids now. They are getting their Bitcoin piggy bank that they will break one day to buy a bike/doll / Playstation / whatever the f they want. And then they start saving again. Ok, maybe the second time they won't have too much Bitcoin, ok maybe you need to sit and lecture them about the time preference - "In 5 years you will be able to get 100 bikes, son!" - "But Dad, I need a new bike now when I'm 15, I don't need 100 bikes when I'm 20." Kids can't have the same time preference as you are. 5 years for you is maybe 10% of your lived life. 5 years for them is like 35%. They cannot wait another 35% to get a bike, all friends will be gone by then and you will ride in the park alone on your 100 bikes.

So kids will not have diamond hands or paper hands, kids just want to use it. Spend it, sell it, save it. Cause at the end you are not converting/selling your Bitcoin for fiat. You use your fiat as an extra medium of exchange. So when my kids need a bike they don't choose between bike for bitcoin or no bike, they choose between 2 paths here - Bitcoin -> Bike and Bitcoin -> Fiat -> Bike. And if the 1st option is not available they will just switch to the second and go on with their life. And please don't do this "it's just slavery with extra steps" meme here. It is for now, but we are gonna remove these extra steps sooner or later, one at a time.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/620536

سیم جوش CO2، که به آن سیم جوش MAG (Metal Active Gas) نیز گفته می‌شود، نوعی سیم جوش مصرفی است که در جوشکاری قوس الکتریکی با گاز محافظ (GMAW) با استفاده از گاز دی اکسید کربن (CO2) به عنوان گاز محافظ استفاده می‌شود. این نوع جوشکاری برای اتصال فولادهای کم کربن، فولادهای کم آلیاژ و فولادهای ضد زنگ کاربرد دارد.

مزایای استفاده از سیم جوش CO2: سرعت جوشکاری بالا: سیم جوش CO2 به دلیل ایجاد قوس الکتریکی پایدار و پرانرژی، سرعت جوشکاری بالایی را ارائه می‌دهد. نفوذ عمیق: این نوع سیم جوش نفوذ عمیقی در فلز پایه ایجاد می‌کند که منجر به جوش‌های قوی و با کیفیت می‌شود. سهولت استفاده: کار با سیم جوش CO2 آسان است و نیاز به مهارت زیادی ندارد. قیمت مناسب: سیم جوش CO2 در مقایسه با سایر انواع سیم جوش های GMAW، قیمت مناسب تری دارد. ظاهر جوش: سیم جوش CO2 ظاهری صاف و تمیز به جوش می‌دهد. کاربردهای سیم جوش CO2: جوشکاری سازه های فولادی: از سیم جوش CO2 برای جوشکاری سازه های فولادی مانند پل ها، ساختمان ها و سکوهای نفتی استفاده می شود. جوشکاری لوله: این نوع سیم جوش برای جوشکاری لوله های فلزی در صنایع مختلف مانند نفت و گاز، آب و فاضلاب و ... کاربرد دارد. جوشکاری ورق های نازک: سیم جوش CO2 برای جوشکاری ورق های نازک فلزی مناسب است. جوشکاری در فضای باز: سیم جوش CO2 به دلیل مقاومت در برابر باد، برای جوشکاری در فضای باز مناسب است. نکات مهم در هنگام استفاده از سیم جوش CO2: انتخاب گاز محافظ مناسب: برای سیم جوش CO2 باید از گاز دی اکسید کربن (CO2) با خلوص بالا به عنوان گاز محافظ استفاده شود. تنظیم جریان و ولتاژ مناسب: جریان و ولتاژ دستگاه جوشکاری باید متناسب با قطر سیم جوش و ضخامت قطعات تنظیم شود. فاصله نازل تا قطعه کار: فاصله نازل تا قطعه کار باید به درستی تنظیم شود تا از ایجاد تخلخل در جوش جلوگیری شود. زاویه و سرعت حرکت: سیم جوش باید با زاویه و سرعت مناسب به حرکت در آید. ایمنی: هنگام جوشکاری باید از تجهیزات ایمنی مانند ماسک، دستکش و پیش بند استفاده کنید. در صورت نیاز به اطلاعات بیشتر یا راهنمایی برای انتخاب و استفاده از سیم جوش CO2، می‌توانید با یک متخصص یا شرکت‌های تولید کننده این محصول مشورت کنید.

For blocks: https://websim.ai/c/cCn9Z3WvzWaGw8TUn

For transactions: https://websim.ai/c/Ot6OrpQqLJhfKn6wS

Btw, for sites created with websim.ai, you can download each page and host it yourself. Feel free to do so with my creations there.

I think I later need to fix the cover image for the transaction PDFs since they are always green or blue or something between.

For the most part, I'm quite confident with where my health is at right now. It's a never ending journey of continuous optimization, experimenting, learning, and adapting but I would say the past 5 years, especially since becoming a Bitcoiner and being able to lower my time preference, I've focused a lot of my time on getting myself as healthy as possible.

With that being said, one aspect of my health that I'm still learning to improve is my overall voice projection. I don't have a weak voice (although at one point I did), but it's far from optimal in terms of volume and clarity. I've noticed that it could be that my breathing muscles, especially my external intercostals aren't the strongest and most conditioned. As I've focused more on slow, deliberate, and full length breaths, really making sure I engage all of my breathing muscles, I do feel I am better able to speak with good projection and clarity. Still a work in progress but progress.

What is one thing that concerns you about your health? Are you doing anything specific to address it, or maybe you have questions or concerns that you would like to discuss here on SN?

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/620120

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The world is a large theater with a small exit door. The definition of the sucker is someone who focuses on the size of the theater, not the size of the door.' -Nassim Taleb

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Now before I start with the Weekly Recap I want to share the following message: 1. It's my Birthday 24.07!🧡 2. 2. 'If your Hardware wallet is:

👉🏽Closed source

👉🏽Has no screen

👉🏽Can’t buy it with Bitcoin

👉🏽Has the word LEDGER on it or connects to a computer

👉🏽Parent company supports censorship and/or Chainanalysis

It’s time to level up your self-custody game.'

Open or verifiable source Bitcoin only!

For example:

Blockstream Jade

Passport Foundation

BitBox02 - Bitcoin Only edition

15th of July:

➡️While Germany sold, the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs bought 19.138 Bitcoin last week alone. Bear in my 3.150 Bitcoin is mined weekly. Supply & demand people, supply & demand. Fun stat, since Germany has finished selling their Bitcoin, the price has increased by ~15%.

Germany sold all of their Bitcoin for $54,000 They could have made an extra $500 million if they had waited two days. Classic!

Official statement/press release:

It states, "The sale of assets even before the conclusion of ongoing criminal proceedings is always legally required if there is a threat of a significant loss in value of about ten percent or more. These conditions were always met with the volatile Bitcoins due to the enormous and extremely fast price fluctuations."

"From the beginning, less than one percent of the market volume of Bitcoins was regularly traded over 90 percent over the counter in a market-friendly manner. On this scale, there is no direct influence on the Bitcoin price."

'...there is no direct influence on the Bitcoin price'. Except for the price going significantly up after they have sold their last Bitcoin.

Anyway, thank you for the Bitcoin Germany!

16th of July:

➡️'Senator Menendez who said “Bitcoin is the ideal choice for criminals,” was just convicted for taking bribes in Gold and Cash!' -Bitcoin Archive

➡️Someone or an entity moved $3 billion around the globe for $2.61. Bitcoin is a game changer, yet some people can't grasp it. It is insane you can move that much money that cheap.

➡️'13F filings show how Bitcoin ETF holder positions changed in Q2.*

So far, with 154 entities filed (& many more to come):

• 79% have increased their holdings
• 12.5% have decreased
• Buyers added $83.5m
• Sellers lost only 5.4m

TL;DR: ETF buyers stacked the Q2 dip.' -Julian Fahrer

• This is a provisional analysis based on 13F filings so far. The filing deadline is a month away, and most of the largest & influential entities will probably file toward the end.

➡️'Long-term Bitcoin holders are accumulating at a record pace. You gotta love the diamond-handed Bitcoin-sucking nerds.  Once a legend, always a legend.' - CarlBMenger

17th of July:

➡️ Mt. Gox was supposed to pay out $9 billion worth of Bitcoin, which could impact the price. It seems like this isn't happening anytime soon. Most creditors have been paid and it's then up to the creditors to distribute those repayments over agreed schedules to avoid impact on the market. Only a small batch of ~150m BTC from ca. 2 weeks ago has made it to the actual creditors.

56% of surveyed Mt. Gox creditors intend to keep all of their recouped Bitcoin, according to a recent Reddit poll that asked users whether they would sell immediately after being credited in the ongoing repayment process, and if so, what percentage.

➡️German Bitcoin miner Northern Data is raising €214M ($234.2M) to expand its high-performance computing facilities and AI operations in the EU and the US.

➡️Mark Cuban & Bitcoin. Part 1: click here

Part 2: 'How high can the price go? Way higher than you think.  Remember, the market for BTC is global.  And the supply has a final limit of 21m BTC, with unlimited fractionalization.

Keep that in mind as you consider what happens if because of geopolitical uncertainty and the decline of the dollar as the reserve currency, BTC becomes a “safe haven” globally. This means that BTC could be what countries and all of us look to buy as a means to protect our savings. Crazy? It already happens in countries facing hyperinflation.  And if things really go further than we can imagine today (and I’m not saying they will.  Just that this has a possibility somewhere above zero), then BTC becomes exactly what the Maxis envision. A global currency.' -Mark Cuban

The maxis were right all along, again!

Only took 4 years to go from "I would rather have bananas" to "Global Currency". Bitcoin will become the global currency. A neutral, open, censorship-resistant, corruption-proof monetary base layer for all

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

➡️Trump says he doesn't want to let "another country take over" Bitcoin and crypto industries - Bloomberg. Normally I would say, 'Hello game theory.' But my god no country can take over Bitcoin... Tell me you don't understand Bitcoin without telling me. This is just him trying to get votes. That's it.

➡️Bitcoin ETFs to be approved at major wirehouses and large bank platforms in Q3/Q4 THIS YEAR - Bernstein

18th of July:

➡️Forbes: "Nostr is not just social media and communications. It’s a different way of structuring the Internet towards one where an anonymous key-pair can help give you new abilities - from transmitting value around the world to accessing and sharing new web services."

People don't realize how this will take over the web. No spam emails, no passwords, no personal info being exposed, no algos, no entity can stop it!

19th of July:

➡️'Blackrock has purchased over $1B worth of Bitcoin this month - Including $107M Today.

That's 18,600 Bitcoin. This is a total acceleration of inflows.' - Thomas Fahrer

That's almost half a Germany...in one month. Gnarly!

➡️New paper proves that “Bitcoin mining can play a key role in the transition to a sustainable energy future by enhancing grid stability, promoting renewable energy use, and supporting economic viability."

Source: click here

➡️On the day of the biggest global IT outage, Bitcoin is still running uninterrupted. Banks are down, airlines are down, Microsoft is down, all having outages because of a cybersecurity outage at CrowdStrike.

Single point of failure (!) yet Bitcoin runs smoothly, producing blocks exactly every 10 minutes as intended.

The Bitcoin network has been functional for 99.99% of the time since its inception on January 3, 2009.

Vires in Numeris

➡️'Everyone who's been daily dollar cost averaging Bitcoin is once again in profit...even those who started DCAing at the all-time high 4 months ago.' - Wicked

➡️Metaplanet is up over 700% since adopting a Bitcoin treasury in April 2024. Metaplanet has increased its market cap from under $20M, to over $160M, by simply adopting Bitcoin.

➡️'Fidelity’s Bitcoin saw $142 million in inflows today, marking its second-best day in three months and nearing $10 billion in total inflows.' - Bitcoin News

22nd of July:

➡️Japanese public company Metaplanet has purchased an additional ~20.38 Bitcoin for ¥200 million at an average price of ¥9,813,061 per BTC. As of July 22, Metaplanet holds ~245.99 Bitcoins acquired for ¥2.45 billion at an average price of ¥9,959,687 per Bitcoin.

➡️Bitcoin miners are heavily selling into the recent rally, offloading 170% of the 30-day mined supply.

➡️Bitcoin miners are fleeing Paraguay for Brazil after the National Power Administration of Paraguay raised tariffs by 14%.

Miner Penguin Group is leading the exodus, securing 400MW of power in Brazil and threatening to relocate 150 jobs from Paraguay.

➡️The next difficulty adjustment is coming in at an estimated +9% as Bitcoin hashrate rebounds sharply off the lows seen earlier this month. -Bitcoin News

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

👉🏽Billionaire Warren Buffet says he could end the United States deficit problem in five minutes. "You just pass a law that says any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election."

I agree with this! It could end the deficit problem, corruption, and other problems. But we all know this won't happen. And because of that, we have Bitcoin.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 U.S. Banks Report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finds that half of large U.S. Banks are failing on operational risk.

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

Let's start with some stats of our world leader, the U.S.: 1) 39 MONTHS OF CPI INFLATION AT 3% OR ABOVE 2) Jobs OVERSTATED in 2023 by 730K 3) 346 BIG bankruptcies in 2024, most in 14 years 4) $2.1tn excess savings gone in 3 years 5) 1.5M jobs lost in 6 months 6) $34.8 tn NATIONAL DEBT - record

Keep that in mind while you read the following segment.

On the 15th of July:

👉🏽 1 out of 3 Americans with salaries of less than $40,000 a year have trouble paying their bills.

More than 33% of US consumers are now worried about making ends meet over the next 6 months.

This includes 30% of Americans earning $150,000 or more annually, according to the Fed survey of 5,000 respondents.

Over the last 12 months, 43% of all surveyed consumers and 37% of high-income individuals cut their discretionary spending.

Looking at stats like this, you can really feel how difficult things are currently.' -TKL

👉🏽'While politics takes center stage, the cost of U.S. debt nears $1.15 trillion, an all-time high.' - Bitcoin News

Now you think a trillie here or there amongst friends who care, right?

The national debt of the U.S. increases by the size of the Bitcoin market cap EVERY 100 DAYS, $ 1 trillion! More on the U.S. debt below (20th of July)

On the 16th of June:

👉🏽'The Euro is dying. Since its inception in 1999, the Euro has lost 40% of its value. To put this into perspective: 1 Euro today can only purchase about 60% of what it could back in 1999. Bitcoin fixes this.' - Relai

👉🏽'An All-Time High of $9.3 trillion in U.S. Debt is set to mature within the next 12 months.' -CarlBMenger

👉🏽European Court of Justice rules that EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen has violated European law by keeping the mRNA injection contracts excessively secret. source

You might think there will be any consequences, right? Her husband is a director of the company Orgenesis, cooperating with Pfizer,...Orgenesis is the same company that Ursula signed a 71 billion euro contract with to buy an astronomical 4.6 billion doses (10 per citizen)... and she has been an employee of Big Pharma for years...conflict of interest you might say, right? 

Nope(!), a day later she was re-elected by the EU Parliament and gets to keep her job. EU 'democracy/corruption' in action. Why? Follow the money.

To make it even worse:

Ursula: 'People are struggling to find affordable homes. This is why – for the first time – I will appoint a Commissioner with direct responsibility for Housing. And we will develop a European Affordable Housing Plan.'

Housing regulation pertains to the member states, not the commission. This is completely against the EU subsidiary principle.

Ursula: 'It is time for Europe to build a true European Defence Union.' 'We need to create a single market for defense. Invest more in high-end defense capabilities and invest together and create common European projects, such as a European Air Shield.'

Strange words coming from a failed German Defense official, Source

Now don't get me wrong. We (the EU) can't rely on the US, but the reason for not wanting an EU army is entirely different: the lack of democratic oversight over the EU. Giving leaders who are not democratically controlled a military is the ultimate recipe for dictatorship.

The EU is increasingly moving towards a centrally planned economy. Historically, that has always worked so well...

👉🏽Italy bans ground-mounted solar panels on agricultural land. When we return to common sense and logic. Now don't get me wrong. Solar panels mounted above farmland can be useful, but using farmland for anything other than growing food isn't. The nations that keep their food will have power over those who destroy theirs. More info: https://www.agritecture.com/blog/2022/2/3/largest-farm-to-grow-crops-under-solar-panels-proves-to-be-a-bumper-crop-for-agrivoltaic-land-use

On the 18th of July:

👉🏽More on the EU and this time in particular the ECB.

ECB President Christine Lagarde: "The risks to economic growth are tilted toward the downside... extreme weather events, and the unfolding climate crisis more broadly, could drive up food prices."

'The logic is impeccable! It’s not the money printing, the debt, or the managed deconstruction of reliable energy infrastructure that are driving up food costs. It’s the weather, stupid.' -Marty Bent

Remember how Lagarde said in 2021/2022 that inflation was just a hump and we will be back to 2% inflation in no time and 2023 'that inflation has...pretty much come from nowhere'.

They printed trillions of Euros and had negative interest rates for years, but yeah inflation came from nowhere!

On the 20th of July:

👉🏽The US debt crisis is terrible:

'Currently, every new dollar of US public debt generates just $0.58 of GDP, near the lowest on record.

By comparison, in the 1960s this metric was as high as $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4.00, or 7 times above current levels. Over the last 4 years, the US national debt has skyrocketed by $11.6 trillion while the US added $6.6 trillion in GDP.

In other words, the US economy's productivity has declined near the worst levels in modern history.' -TKL

On the 21st of July:

👉🏽Interest Payments on U.S. National Debt Will Shatter $1,140,000,000,000 This Year – Eating 76% of All Income Taxes Collected.' -CarlBMenger

On the 22nd of July:

👉🏽China just made a surprise interest rate cut by 0.25% to stimulate economic growth. Is global liquidity about to happen?

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Nostr is the SIGNAL:

Well-written piece by Lyn Alden.

My advice: Try Nostr before you need Nostr

Credit: I have used multiple sources! My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

Stablecoins sind Kryptowährungen, deren Preis anhand von Preisbindungsmechanismen (entweder aktiv gemanaged, automatisiert und algorithmusbasiert) versucht eine andere Währung abzubilden. Es gibt auch nicht-währungsgebundene Stablecoins, deren Ziel es sein soll z.B. Gold- oder Diamantenpreise (😅) abzubilden. Alleine auf coinmarketcap.com und coingecko.com sind über 85 aktive Stablecoins aller Art aufgelistet (kurze Sidenote: habe mir ein paar Coins aus reinem Interesse näher angesehen und bei den meisten war die angegebene Website nicht (mehr) online - ein Zeichen für die Anzahl an gestarteten und verwahrlosten Projekten in dem Bereich). Außerdem wichtig ist, dass Stablecoins von privaten Unternehmen geschaffen werden, niemals von Staaten oder Institutionen (zumindest bisher).

Also, was ist also der eigentliche Nutzen eines Stablecoins, der einfach nur den Wert einer Währung abbildet? Warum benutzt man dann nicht einfach diese Währung? Und das ist genau der Punkt in Zeiten von Magic-Internet-Unicorn-Moneys. Nehmen wir z.B. US Dollar gebundene Stablecoins, wie Tether oder USDC (Circle): Möchte man auf gängigen Tauschbörsen (Cryptocurrency Exchange / CEXs), wie Kraken, FTX oder Binance Kryptowährungen kaufen, muss man zunächst den Gegenwert in einer Fiatwährung bereitstellen, d.h. man muss USD, EUR oder GBP auf ein Konto überweisen, mit Kreditkarte kaufen, oder anderweitige Drittanbieter zur Hilfe ziehen. Danach wird im Depot ein Kontostand über den eingezahlten Betrag in der jeweiligen Währung angezeigt, den man benutzen kann, um in den von der Tauschbörse angebotenen Kryptowährungen zu handeln. Hier kommen verschiedene Szenarien zu tragen, z.B. möchte man die gut angelegte Kryptowährung gewinnbringend verkaufen, und tauscht diese folglich entweder a) zurück in Fiat, b) in eine andere Kryptowährung, oder c) in einen Stablecoin.

a) Zwar ist zurück nach Fiat tauschen bei den meisten angebotenen Kryptowährungen in der Regel möglich und die meisten grossen Tauschbörsen bieten die gängigen Fiatwährungen an. Jedoch sind manche Währungen deutlich liquider als andere und der einzig wirkliche Grund in Fiatwährung zu tauschen ist, dass man sein Depot liquidieren möchte, um die Investition und die Gewinne zurück auf sein Bankkonto zu überweisen. Außerdem können hier Steuern anfallen! Echt? Echt!

b) Sollte man verkaufen wollen, um in eine andere Kryptowährung zu tauschen, bietet es sich oft an direkt mithilfe von trading pairs von einer in die andere Währung zu swappen. Das Problem hierbei ist, dass bei obskuren Währungen oft nur direkte Swaps mit z.B. Bitcoin, Ether oder einer handvoll anderen Währungen angeboten werden.

c) In diesem Fall tauscht man also von Währung 1 zu Stablecoin, um direkt anschließend zu Währung 2 zu tauschen. Das hat auch den Vorteil, dass die Liquidität bei den großen Stablecoins und der gewünschten Währung höher ist, als zwischen obskurer Währung 1 und obskurer Währung 2, da man für den gewünschten Trade auch Counterparties braucht.

Desweiteren lassen sich Stablecoins auch über Tauschbörsen hinaus versenden. Wer mit seinen Gewinnen eine Währung kaufen möchte, die Börse 1 nicht anbietet, kann also den Stablecoin zu Börse 2 senden, um dort damit die gewünschte Währung zu kaufen. Das ist mit Fiat Währungen nicht möglich.

Außerdem arbeiten die meisten automatisieren Swaps der DeFi Protokolle zwischen den vielen dezentralisierten Tauschbörsen (Decentralized Exchanges / DEXs) mit Stablecoins. Da dort die Funds non-custodial gehandelt werden, ist es hier unmöglich mit Fiat Währungen zu handeln. Stablecoins ermöglichen also den Handel mit Kryptowährungen ohne die langen Wartezeiten, bei niedrigen Transaktionskosten und ohne größere Volatilitätsrisiken (wie z.B. bei Bitcoin).

Soweit zum Anwendungsfall von Stablecoins.

💩 CBDCs

Bei Central Bank Digital Currencies handelt es sich um digitales Zentralbankgeld. Damit ist es digital und ein Zahlungsmittel. Das sind auch schon die einzigen Gemeinsamkeiten mit Kryptowährungen, ganz zu schweigen von Bitcoin. Was ist auch ein digitales Zahlungsmittel? Genau, Paypal. CBDCs sind näher verwandt mit Paypal, als mit Bitcoin.

Jede//r, die//der in einem entwickelten Land ein Bankkonto hat, verfügt heute schon über digitales Geld, denn alles was man auf seinem Konto hat (oder nicht hat) sind in einem Zentralregister gespeicherte Transaktionen. Kein Geld wird bei Überweisungen physisch verschoben. De facto ähneln Bankdienste eher Messengern wie Whatsapp, über die Nachrichten über Ab- oder Zubuchungen übermittelt werden.

Der Unterschied zu Zentralbankgeld ist, dass die Zentralbank diese Konten verwaltet, also die//der Nutzer//in das Konto direkt bei der Zentralbank führt. Viele Zentralbanken spielen in der Theorie mit der Idee CBDCs zu schaffen, jedoch weicht die zugrundeliegende Architektur stark ab. Es gibt Modelle, die sich einer (privaten) Blockchain bedienen, solche die in der Tat einem zweiten Paypal gleichen und solche, die sich vom heutigen System gar nicht unterscheiden, bis auf den Fakt, dass keine Geschäftsbank, sondern die Zentralbank selbst das Konto führt.

Es gibt also keine eindeutige Definition für CBDCs, denn die Ausgestaltung liegt bei der jeweiligen Zentralbank. Um bei den gängigen Währungen zu bleiben (Post #4), sehen wir heute, dass

China weitläufige Versuche an seiner Bevölkerung durchführt (digitale Autokratien brauchen digitales Geld); die EZB sich mehrmals zu ihren Ambitionen geäußert und Berichte veröffentlicht hat (mit teils wahnsinnigen wie inkompetenten Inhalten); die BOJ eine bisher vernachlässigbare Versuchsperiode begonnen hat; die USA (vielleicht als einzig vernünftige Institution) CBDCs momentan grundlegend ablehnen, und stattdessen eine weitläufige Regulierung der existierenden Stablecoins durch die SEC vorantreiben. Gary Gensler (Vorsitzender der SEC) kennt sich mit Bitcoin aus (hat Blockchain technology, digital currencies, financial technology an der MIT gelehrt) und setzt sich dafür ein regulierte und sichere Stablecoins zu verwenden anstatt CBDCs zu schaffen.

Der größte Kritikpunkt bei der Idee die Zentralbank könnte ein eigenes digitales Geld in Umlauf bringen, ist dass dies außerhalb der eigentlichen Befugnis einer Zentralbank liegt. Konkret bedeutet dies, dass die Mandate der Zentralbanken Geldwertsicherung und Vollbeschäftigung vorsehen. Implizit bedeutet dies, dass die treibende Kraft weiterhin die Angst davor, Marktanteile an Bitcoin und digitale Währungen wie Tether oder andere ähnliche private digitale Währungen zu verlieren, ist.

Das Problem für den//die Nutzer//in, Bürger//in, uns ist, dass CBDCs anders als Cash (Scheine und Münzen in unseren Taschen, deren Herkunft sich nicht oder nur sehr schwer nachvollziehen lässt), programmiertes und transparentes Geld darstellen. Damit lässt sich die Herkunft des Geldes und somit alle historischen Daten (Art der Einnahmen, Legalität der Herkunft, Steuern bezahlt, Verbindungen zu anderen Menschen, etc.) sowie Daten über den Verwendungszweck (zukünftige Verwendung des Geldes) nachvollziehen. In einer Welt, in der Cash durch CBDCs ersetz wird, besitzen wir unser Geld nicht. Das Geld wird zu einem Überwachungsinstrument, die Zentralbank kann den Verwendungszweck von digitalem Geld lenken bzw. einschränken (sprich ein Vorbestrafter Verkehrssünder kann mit seinem digitalen Wallet kein Auto kaufen oder tanken gehen), und die//der Verbraucher//in kann nicht mehr so viel sparen (Zentralbanken wollen nicht, dass wir sparen) wie sie//er will (I'm looking at you EZB, 3000 EUR cap 👀). Klingt nach autokratischer Planwirtschaft, klingt nach komplexen Systemen, die zentral gesteuert werden sollen...

Komplexe Systeme, wie die Energieversorgung eines Staates, müssen gesteuert, überwacht und reguliert werden, dazu sollten Politiker und Berater befähigt werden. Jedoch ist eine zentrale Planung dieser Systeme nicht möglich [.]

Effekte dieser Entwicklung auf Bitcoin

Die Entwicklung von Stablecoins im Speziellen und CBDSCs (Central Bank Digital Shit Coins) haben meines Erachtens einen sehr positiven Effekt auf Bitcoin.

• Zunächst mal führt jegliche Einführung digitaler Zahlungsmittel dazu, dass sich Nutzer wohler fühlen mit Geld im digitalen Raum umzugehen. Egal ob Apple Pay, Paypal oder die Coinbase / Kraken Wallet auf dem Telefon machen es dem Endnutzer immer selbstverständlicher sich mit digitalem Geld auseinander zu setzen. Das wird dazu führen, dass sich Zahlungen via Bitcoin oder Lightning irgendwann ganz natürlich anfühlen werden.
• Die angesprochene Regulierung von Stablecoins durch die SEC und damit auch in weiten anderen Teilen der Welt wird dazu führen, dass viele der heute existierenden Shit Coins und Scam Tokens als Ponzi- und Pyramidensysteme entlarvt und damit verboten werden. Auch Fälle wie Terra/LUNA oder Celsius werden damit seltener möglich, was eine höhere Glaubwürdigkeit im gesamten Digital Assets Bereich erzeugen wird, aber Bitcoin insbesondere von allen anderen Kryptowährungen entkoppeln wird, weil damit von regulatorischer Seite per definitionem Bitcoin nicht mehr als gleiche Asset Klasse geführt werden wird.
• Sollten die Zentralbanken sich wirklich dazu durchringen unsere heutigen Währungen durch ihre digitalen Währungen zu ersetzen, werden viele Menschen einen Ausweg in Bitcoin suchen. CBDCs sind per Definition das Gegenteil für was Bitcoin steht. Bitcoin ist

🟢 dezentral (CBDC ❌)

🟢 zensurresistent (CBDC ❌)

🟢 erlaubnislos (CBDC ❌)

🟢 diskriminiert nicht (CBDC ❌)

🟢 ein weltweit liquides Zahlungsmittel (CBDC ❌)

🟢 ein extrem knappes Zahlungsmittel (CBDC ❌)

🟢 einfach selbst zu verwahren (CBDC ❌)

Bitcoin = Freedom Money

In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

In Zeiten in denen Ludwig Erhards Idee einer Sozialen Marktwirtschaft mit Füßen getreten wird, suchen viele Menschen nach einer gesunden Alternative. In seinem Buch "Wohlstand für Alle" wird das Bild des Staats als Schiedsrichter, der am Spiel teilnimmt ohne direkten Einfluss zu nehmen, aufgemalt. Das Spiel, also der Markt, muss gerecht gehalten werden (level playing field, wie es im Englischen schön heißt) und dies passiert durch ein Balancieren der Kräfte zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage, Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer, Firmen und Kartellamt. Dieser Kräfteausgleich, oder anders Wettbewerb genannt, zwischen den Spielern führt zu einer prosperierenden Gesellschaft, in der auch alle Teilnehmer zu mehr Wohlstand gelangen können.

Diese Idee kontrastiert stark mit der aktuellen Situation, in der der Staat nicht mehr die Rolle des Schiedsrichters innehat, sondern ganz aktiv in das Geschehen eingreift. Der Staat vereinnahmt immer weitreichendere Teile des Marktes für sich und interveniert, indem Banken aus Finanzkrisen, kranke oder zumindest vermeintlich risikobehaftete Bürger vor Pandemien und Kriegsfolgen in Europa und zuletzt vor steigenden Benzinpreisen gerettet werden müssen. Letzteres z.B. tut der Staat nicht, indem er das Kartellamt einschaltet und somit Mineralölunternehmen eine gelbe Karte erteilt, sondern indem er direkt eingreift und Energiesteuergesetze erlässt, die den Benzinpreis direkt beeinflussen sollen. Dies ist nur das letzte Beispiel für einen fortwährenden Trend weg von der freien Marktwirtschaft hin zu einem alles lenkenden Staat. In Post #2 habe ich schon folgendes gesagt:

Komplexe Systeme, wie die Energieversorgung eines Staates, müssen gesteuert, überwacht und reguliert werden, dazu sollten Politiker und Berater befähigt werden. Jedoch ist eine zentrale Planung dieser Systeme nicht möglich.

Ob Energiepolitik oder Geldpolitik, für viele Menschen sind der übergriffige Staat und die ungreifbare Politik der Zentralbanken ein immer größerer Dorn im Auge, weshalb sie einen Ausweg in eine gesunde Geldpolitik suchen. Für Bitcoiner ist der sogenannte Bitcoin Standard (nicht mit dem großartigen Buch von Saifedean Ammous zu verwechseln) das finale Ziel, um unsere Welt in eine nachhaltigere, marktwirtschaftlich vernünftigere und finanziell gesunde Gesellschaft führen. Die Geldpolitik von Bitcoin ist programmatisch, ist in Code geschrieben, kann jederzeit von jedem geprüft werden und wird nicht von einer einzelnen Person oder Gruppe kontrolliert. Bitcoin ist eine automatisierte Zentralbank mit einer programmatischen Geldpolitik und somit völlig isoliert von jeglichem politischen Druck. Keine Änderung der Nachfrage in irgendeiner Richtung wirkt sich auf das Angebot aus, die Menge an bitcoins ist fest im Code verankert. Bitcoin ist die unabhängigste Zentralbank der Welt.

Natürlich kann man argumentieren, dass der Bitcoin Preis, bzw. die damit verbundene Volatilität, oder der Wilde Westen, den die unregulierte Digital Assets Szene zurzeit ausmachen, für Außenstehende auch wie Kraut und Rüben aussehen. Doch wenn man Bitcoin mit dem aktuellen Chaos der von Menschen geführten Geldpolitik vergleicht, sieht die Geldpolitik von Bitcoin unglaublich attraktiv, weil transparent und stabil, aus. Die schon erwähnten kurzfristigen Preisbewegungen lenken die meisten Menschen, die in Bitcoin zunächst nur eine Investment Chance oder Hokus Pokus sehen, von der wahren Innovation ab. Bitcoin stellt ein digitales, solides und gutes Geld (sound money) dar.

Doch was genau muss passieren, damit Bitcoin die Rolle einer Leitwährung übernehmen kann? Folgende Annahmen müssten dazu wahrscheinlich erfüllt werden, um solch ein Szenario zu realisieren:

1️⃣ Der US Dollar muss seine Rolle als exklusive globale Leitwährung bzw. Weltwährung verlieren.

Ein sehr aufschlussreicher Artikel zu diesem Thema wurde neulich auf zerohedge.com veröffentlicht. In diesem Artikel werden fünf Anzeichen aufgelistet und erklärt, warum die Vormachtstellung des US Dollars in Gefahr ist. Ich rate jedem den original Artikel zu lesen, allerdings habe ich die fünf Thesen kurz zusammengefasst.

‌Warning Sign #1: Russia Sanctions Prove Dollar Reserves “Aren’t Really Money”

Provoziert durch den Krieg in der Ukraine haben die USA Sanktionen gegen Russland verhängt und u.A. die Dollarreserven der Russischen Zentralbank eingefroren. Dieser Schritt verdeutlicht die politischen Risiken, die mit dem Halten seiner Reserven in US Dollars behaftet sind. Das Vertrauen in den Dollar ist beschädigt und viele Staaten schauen sich nach Alternativen um.

‌Warning Sign #2: Rubles, Gold, and Bitcoin for Gas, Oil, and Other Commodities

Als einer der größten Exporteure für Wirtschaftsgüter aller Art (Rohstoffe, aber auch Gold und Uranium) hat Russland angekündigt keine Zahlungen in Dollar mehr zu akzeptieren und stattdessen nur noch Rubel, Gold oder Bitcoin anzunehmen. Das heißt, dass der Dollar als Zahlungsmittel im internationalen Handel seine Exklusivität verloren hat.

‌Warning Sign #3: The Petrodollar System Flirts With Collapse

Dank einem Abkommen zwischen Saudi Arabien und den USA in den 1970ern wird das von allen Mitgliedsstaaten der OPEC geförderte Öl in US Dollar gehandelt, im Gegenzug für militärischen Schutz der USA. Das sogenannte Petrodollar System hat dem US Dollar somit einen enormen Wert und hohe Liquidität verliehen. Russlands Ausschluss vom Dollar System als Teil der US Sanktionen könnte sich ähnlich mit China wiederholen, wenn diese Taiwan überfallen, und damit könnte China nicht mehr ohne weiteres Öl importieren. Um solch ein Risiko durch Abhängigkeit vom US Dollar zu vermeiden hat China seit Jahren ein Alternativsystem basierend auf den Chinesischen Yuan mit Hilfe des Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) aufgebaut. China ist der weltgrößte Importeur von Öl und Saudi Arabien den USA nicht mehr so wohl gesinnt, wie noch vor 50 Jahren, zu Beginn des Petrodollar Systems. Sollte also China als größter Kunde Saudi Arabiens diese dazu bringen den Yuan zu akzeptieren, wäre es mit dem Öl-gestützten Petrodollar System vorbei und somit bräche auch einer der Pfeiler des Dollars als Zahlungsmittel im internationalen Handel weg.

Warning Sign #4: Out of Control Money Printing and Record Price Increases

Mehr als 4 Billionen US Dollar wurden in den letzten zwei Jahren von der Federal Reserve bereitgestellt - die größte monetäre Ausweitung in der Geschichte der USA. Dies ist höchstwahrscheinlich einer der größten Preistreiber der aktuellen Inflation, selbst wenn die Federal Reserve dies nicht zugibt.

Warning Sign #5: Fed Chair Admits Dollar Supremacy Is Dead

“It’s possible to have more than one reserve currency.” Es ist auch möglich, mehr als nur eine große Währung zu haben sagte Jerome Powell, der Präsident der Federal Reserve. Der Mann, dessen Job es ist die Leitwährung (bzw. Weltwährung) zu beschützen, gibt offen zu, dass es neben dem Dollar auch weitere Kandidaten für den Thron geben kann.

2️⃣ Bitcoin muss von einer Großzahl der wirtschaftlich stärksten Länder der Welt anerkannt werden.

Wie bereits erwähnt bahnen sich tektonische Verschiebungen in der Weltpolitik und der Weltwirtschaft an. Russland ist vom US Dollar System de jure ausgeschlossen (de facto wirft die ganze Welt Russland die immer noch hinterher), China hat an einem Alternativsystem zum Petrodollar gearbeitet und auch die Eurozone (mit dem Euro als zweitwichtigster Reservewährung und der Währung mit dem größten Geldvolumen weltweit) arbeitet zurzeit an einem digitalen Euro und/oder einer CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), was zumindest darauf schließen lässt, dass auch in Europa zumindest über Alternativszenarien nachgedacht wird und den Euro zumindest als zweitwichtigste Weltwährung platzieren möchte.

Aber auch die USA selbst müssten Bitcoin als legales und reguliertes Zahlungsmittel anerkennen, bevor es dann überhaupt als Leit- oder Reservewährung in Frage kommen kann.

3️⃣ Aus ökonomischer Sicht müssten einige der Messwerte von Bitcoin substantiell nach oben steigen.

Hier will ich das Pferd mal von hinten aufzäumen. Ohne auf Geldmengendefinitionen für M1, M2, M3, etc. und Geldschöpfungsmechanismen einzugehen, will ich hier eine einfache Bierdeckelrechnung anstellen, um nur eine grobe Hausnummer aufzuzeigen. Die monetäre Basis, also die Zentralbankgeldmenge, der USA beläuft sich auf 5,8 Billionen Dollar (5.885.200.000.000).

Das bedeutet für Bitcoin, dessen Geldmenge auf 21 Millionen (21.000.000) festgelegt ist, dass eine "Marktkapitalisierung" von 5,8 Billionen nur über den Anstieg des Preises pro bitcoin erreicht werden kann. Das bedeutet in Zahlen einen Preis von ca. 280.000 US Dollar, oder anders ausgedrückt eine Verzehnfachung des jetzigen Preises. Ist solch ein Anstieg möglich? Wir können auf jeden Fall festhalten, dass der Preis von Bitcoin noch im März 2020 bei unter 5.000 USD lag, bevor der rasante Anstieg auf über 60.000 im April 2021 stattfand. Also innerhalb eines Jahres, hatte Bitcoin seinen Preis mehr als verzehnfacht und das ist nur der letzte deutliche Sprung, denn natürlich waren zu Anfangszeiten Sprünge im Bereich Faktor 10 keine Seltenheit. Mit dieser Rechnung möchte ich nur zeigen, dass Bitcoin momentan noch viel zu "klein" ist, um in der Liga von Währungen, wie dem US Dollar, oder dem Euro zu spielen. Diese Milchmädchenrechnung zieht auch die gesagt in Dollar angegebene Geldmenge bei fremdländischen Banken (Eurodollar) etc. nicht in Betracht.

Das alles soll nicht heißen, dass die Welt plötzlich anfängt Bitcoin als Zahlungsmittel zu akzeptieren (es besteht auch ein Unterschied zwischen Bitcoin als Währung und Bitcoin als Zahlungsmittel). Aber in solch einer hypothetischen Währungsordnung würden die Zentralbanken der jeweiligen Länder Bitcoin als Reserve hinterlegen, wie es z.B. zu Zeiten des Goldstandards der Fall war. Das heißt, den Fiat-Währungen wird durch das Hinterlegen und Absichern der Geldmenge in Bitcoin ein tatsächlicher Wert verliehen und nicht wie es heutzutage der Fall ist, mit einem Versprechen die Liquidität der jeweiligen Währung "abgesichert". Hinzu kommt natürlich, dass alle oben aufgeführten Annahmen erstmal erfüllt werden müssten, um Bitcoin nur theoretisch in die Lage zu versetzen, als Leitwährung überhaupt in Frage zu kommen. Gold hat es schon immer gegeben und die Charakteristika von Gold als Reserve sind unbestreitbar, allerdings haben sich die Staaten gegen ein Gold-gestütztes Währungssystem entschieden, weil eine Abkopplung den Umgang mit Geld und Krediten viel flexibler gestaltet. Das bedeutet, dass entweder Staaten von sich aus entscheiden müssten, von nun an ihrer Währung mehr Glaubwürdigkeit und Stabilität zu verleihen, indem sie einen Bitcoin Standard für sich einführen, oder aber der Einsatz von Bitcoin weltweit so stark steigt, dass automatisch Währungssysteme, weltweiter Handel, etc. in Bitcoin benannt wird, anstatt in US Dollars wie es heute der Fall ist.

"The government currencies are so unreliable — they're also fiat currencies. They're not backed by anything," - Sen. Rand Paul

Über 150 Millionen Menschen auf der ganzen Welt haben Bitcoin für sich akzeptiert und benutzen es mehr oder weniger täglich für sich. Die Nachfrage nach einem extrem knappen Zahlungsmittel, das relativ einfach selbst verwahrt und durch ein global verteiltes Netzwerk von Knoten, auf dem Open-Source-Software läuft, übertragen und gesichert werden kann, wird steigen. Wenn man sich alles ansieht, was zurzeit in der Welt vor sich geht, insbesondere mit Blick auf Regierungen, die ihre politische und wirtschaftliche Macht immer weiter expandieren und damit gegen den Gedanken der freien Marktwirtschaft vorgehen, indem sie die Kontrolle über das Geld-, Lebensmittel- und Energiesystem ausbreiten, wird die Nachfrage nach Bitcoin nicht nur steigen, sondern rasant zunehmen. Die steigende Nachfrage nach Bitcoin und die gleichzeitige Abkehr und der Vertrauensverlust in die Politik der Staaten und das aktuelle Geldsystem könnte zu einem Bitcoin-gestützten Währungssystem führen, dem sogenannten Bitcoin Standard.

Die Frage ist, wie schnell wir es schaffen Bitcoin zur Reservewährung der Welt und damit die Menschheit insgesamt ein bisschen besser zu machen? Schaffen wir es in den nächsten Jahrhunderten, Jahrzehnten, oder sogar schon in den nächsten paar Jahren? Denn je länger der Übergang zu einem Bitcoin-Standard dauert, desto mehr Unsicherheit, politisches Missmanagement und korrupte (oder dumme) Entscheidungen wird die Menschheit ertragen müssen.

🫳🎤

In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

Beginnen wir mit dem Terra/Luna Fiasko. TerraUSD (UST) ist (war) ein auf Algorithmen basierender Stablecoin herausgegeben von LFG (Luna Foundation Guard). Dies bedeutet, dass ein Algorithmus automatisch einen Preisbildungsmechanismus betreibt, was wiederum bedeutet, dass UST an den US Dollar gebunden war, allerdings (und das ist der grosse Unterschied z.B. zu Tether) keine USD Vermögenswerte zugrunde liegen hatte, wie bei anderen Stablecoins (angeblich) der Fall ist. Im Fall von UST gab es einen zweiten Token (LUNA), der Preisschwankungen beim UST absorbieren sollte. Ein spezieller Burn/Mint Mechanismus sollte so Angebot und Nachfrage ausbalancieren.

Es gab einen gezielten Angriff auf das Terra Netzwerk nachdem im März angekündigt wurde, dass Terra Bitcoins im Wert von 10 Milliarden USD als Währungsreserve gekauft habe. Im April hatte Terra für über 40.000 USD gekauft. Terra war nach dem Angriff gezwungen seine Bitcoins (für ca. 32.000 USD) zu verkaufen, um die Bindung an den US Dollar Basiswert aufrecht zu erhalten. Dieses Entladen von 42.530 Bitcoins in den Markt führte zu einem weiteren Absinken der Kurse aller Kryptowährungen (denn wir wissen, wenn der OG Bitcoin steigt, steigen alle Shitcoins mit, wenn Bitcoin sinkt, fallen alle anderen auch).

Wie oben schon erwähnt führte die Aneinanderreihung von Effekten dazu, dass es einen Überschuss von LUNA gab, was weiter zum Kursverfall führte und im Endeffekt als Resultat hat, dass LUNA (Stand heute) 0.000185 USD "wert" ist (im Vergleich zu fast 100 USD im April).

Die wichtigsten Takeaways von diesem Event sind meiner Meinung nach die folgenden:

Es wird in Zukunft mehr und strengerer Regulierung bedürfen. Das Vertrauen in automatische auf Algorithmen basierenden Stablecoins dürfte zunächst bis auf weiteres stark gelitten haben. Die Verflechtungen von Kryptowährungen, Tokens und auch Bitcoin sollten nicht unterschätzt werden. Der Preisverlust von Bitcoin war der Todesstoß für Terra, aber auch Terras Ausverkauf hat zu einem weiteren Kursrutsch bei Bitcoin beigetragen. Wie oben schon angerissen, muss sich Bitcoin von "Crypto" emanzipieren. Die News rund um Terra und die damit einhergehenden schlimmen Meldungen über Selbstmorde, ruinierte Existenzen, etc. fallen auch auf Bitcoin zurück. Schlechte News sind wie Öl auf das Feuer aller Bitcoin Gegner und wenn keine haltbaren Anschuldigungen bei Bitcoin selbst gefunden werden um FUD zu schüren, werden News aus dem breiten Spektrum der Shitcoins herangeholt. Terras Blockchain wurde angehalten. Von Entwicklern. Angehalten. Wofür stand DeFi nochmal? Eben. Und damit genug von Terra & Luna und auf zu Sol(ar) .... sorry :(

Ich habe mich letzte Woche ein wenig ausführlicher mit dem Thema Bitcoin Mining mit Solarenergie in Deutschland auseinandergesetzt. Sogenanntes Behind-the-meter Mining ist einer der wichtigsten Bausteine in der Umkehr des Narrativs Bitcoin Mining sei energieineffizient und klimaschädlich. Viel wird darüber geschrieben, dass Bitcoin pro Jahr Energie in der Höhe einzelner kleinerer Länder verbraucht. Es wird im gleichen Atemzug erwähnt, dass Bitcoins zugrundeliegender Wertschöpfungsmechanismus Proof of Work (PoW) der Grund allen Übels sei und durch Proof of Stake (PoS) "Mining" ersetzt werden solle. Sogar eine eigene Kampagne von Greenpeace unter dem Namen "Change the Code" / "Clean-up Bitcoin" setzt sich momentan dafür ein Bitcoins Code zugunsten PoS zu verändern.

🌐 CHANGE THE CODE

Das ist natürlich albern. Denn wenn auch große Mengen von Energie benötigt werden, um Bitcoin zu Minen (ich werde in diesem Zusammenhang nicht das deutsche Wort Schürfen verwenden - es hört sich für mich unästhetisch an), so wird diese Energie in ein Produkt umgewandelt. Niemand würde auf die Idee kommen BASF oder Apple vorzuwerfen, sie würden zu viele Rohstoffe verbrauchen. Denn in dieser Gleichung ist jedem bewusst, dass zur Herstellung eines Produkts immer ein Vorprodukt, ein Rohstoff oder eben Energie benötigt wird. Output benötigt Input. Im Fall vom Bitcoin Protokoll ist dieser Output bitcoin, also die Coins, und der Input ist Energie in der Form von Strom.

Jetzt lässt sich natürlich über das Produkt streiten. Viele Menschen sehen in Bitcoin keinen Mehrwert und würden deshalb der These widersprechen, der hohe Energieverbrauch sei durch die Produktion dieser Coins gerechtfertigt. Allerdings würde sich auch niemand hinstellen und behaupten, dass alle von BASF hergestellten Produkte für ihre Leben relevant sind und damit in Frage stellen, welche die Umwelt belastende Produktionen dem öffentlichen Wohl dienen und damit als verantwortbar gelten sollten und welche eben nicht.

Wer in dem Produkt Bitcoin nicht ein souveränes, transparentes und völlig dezentrales Geldsystem, in dem jeder volle Kontrolle über seinen Geldfluss, die Authentizität des erhaltenen Geldes und den Verbleib seines Ersparten hat, ohne dass Dritte Einfluss nehmen, Kontrolle walten oder Verbote aussprechen können, sollte sich nochmal Schlafen legen, nochmal neu aufstehen und nochmal von vorne denken. Energie ist wichtig für Menschen. Eine erhöhte Stromproduktion korreliert mit einem erhöhten menschlichen Wohlstand.

Das führt direkt zum nächsten Punkt. Erhöhte Stromproduktion ist an sich nicht schlecht - im Gegenteil. Allerdings ist auch sehr wichtig, aus welchen Quellen diese zusätzliche Energie gewonnen wird. Geopolitische und klimabedingte Auswirkungen haben in den letzten Jahren gezeigt, dass ein Umdenken und ein Umschwenken (nicht zu jedem Preis und nicht ohne eine Grundsicherung zu gewährleisten) durchaus sehr vernünftig sind. Immer mehr private, aber auch semi-professionelle Gruppen investieren in Photovoltaik Equipment, um den Eigenbedarf zu decken, oder zumindest Stromkosten zu senken und im Falle von semi-professionellen Anlagen, um natürlich auch den ein oder anderen Euro hinzuzuverdienen. Mit einem semi-professionellen Anbieter habe ich mich über die Nachhaltigkeit und Wirtschaftlichkeit von Bitcoin Mining in so einer 1MWh unterhalten und zusammen haben wir ein paar Rechenbeispiele durchgespielt.

Um eine Mining Operation in der Theorie zu planen, gilt es sich die verschiedenen Komponenten und Variablen anzuschauen. Ziel ist es eine Projektion zu erstellen, die Aufschluss darüber gibt, ob ein solches Unterfangen überhaupt profitabel sein kann.

Bei den Komponenten und Variablen handelt es sich zunächst um die verschiedenen (1) Hardware Komponenten (also Solaranlage, Stromspeicher, Mining Equipment und Peripherie), die (2) stromseitigen Variablen (also Sonnenstunden, Einspeisungsvergütung und Länge der Abschreibung) und die (3) finanziellen bzw. Bitcoin-seitigen Variablen (also Hashrate und Difficulty, Bitcoin Preis, Block Reward und Pool Fee).

🖨️ Fangen wir mit Hardware Komponenten an:

In dem vorliegenden Szenario handelt es sich um eine Solaranlage, die in der Lage ist 1 MWh (Megawattstunde) zu produzieren. Die Anlage existiert bereits und darum will ich hier nicht weiter auf Anschaffungskosten, Wartung, etc. eingehen.

Also Annahme 1️⃣ für diese Projektion ist, dass Strom hergestellt werden kann, natürlich bis auf die anfallenden Eigenkosten und die Variable Einspeisungsvergütung, auf die wir später zu sprechen kommen.

Bei dem Mining Equipment sind wir von einem Bitmain Antminer S19 XP ausgegangen, der eine Leistung von 140TH/s (Hashrate) erzeugt bei einem Verbrauch von 3040 W, oder ca. 3kW. Dieser Miner kostet zur Zeit etwa um die 10.000 Euro. Auch hier muss man wieder ein Caveat aussprechen, da die derzeitige weltwirtschaftliche Lage und die alzu beliebten Lieferkettenengpässe bei Halbleitern besonders bei ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) Chips dazu führen, dass das Equipment entweder deutlich teurer wird, sich die Wartezeiten ins Unendliche ziehen, oder sogar dazu führen, dass gänzlich andere Hardware berücksichtigt werden muss.

Also Annahme 2️⃣ ist, dass das Wunsch-Equipment relativ problemlos erworben werden kann.

Stromseitig muss außerdem ein Stromspeicher berechnet werden, da das Mining Equipment im besten Fall zu 100% der Zeit ausgelastet werden soll und dafür tagsüber Strom gespeichert werden muss, der nachts und im Winter an sonnenarmen Tagen die direkte Versorgung mit Sonne überbrücken kann. Da im Dezember die Zeit zwischen Sonnenauf- und Sonnenuntergang lediglich 8 Stunden beträgt, müssen die übrigen 70% der Zeit aus dem Speicher geliefert werden. Bei 16 Stunden a 3 kW benötigt man also einen 50 kW Speicher, der zur Zeit in der Anschaffung mit 25.000 Euro zu Buche schlägt.

Also in Annahme 3️⃣ gehen wir davon aus, dass ein Speicher mit 50 kW Speichervermögen benötigt wird und ähnlich wie beim Miner auch problemlos zu kaufen ist.

Bei der Peripherie sprechen wir von Unterstellmöglichkeiten, LAN Verbindung, und weiterem Equipment, dass für diese Back-of-the-envelope Rechnung mal ausser Acht gelassen werden kann. Also für Annahme 4️⃣ erstmal egal.

🌦️ Soviel also zur Hardware. Weiter zu den stromseitigen Variablen:

Die Jahreswerte für Sonnenstunden, also volle Stunden, die zur 100%igen Auslastung eines Solarpanels führen, lassen sich problemlos online abrufen. Bei 8760 Stunden, die so ein Jahr hat, beläuft sich die Anzahl der Sonnenstunden im Mittelwert auf ca. 1525 pro Jahr, was einem Anteil von 17.4% gleichkommt. Also ganz vereinfacht gesagt, ein Fünftel des Jahres gibts Sonnenschein 😎

Dieser Mittelwert schwankt natürlich extrem über das Jahr hinweg, da die sonnenreichsten Monate (Mai, Juni, Juli) etwa ein vierfaches der Sonnenstunden der sonnenärmsten Monate (November, Dezember, Januar) aufweisen. Und da wir bei Sonnenstunden natürlich über eine naturgemachte und anders als bei anderen Erzeugungsmethoden absolut unbeeinflussbare Energiequelle sprechen, müssen wir nicht lange diskutieren, dass auch diese Werte nur Anhaltspunkte liefern und niemals Fixwerte darstellen. Zusätzlich zu den "vollen" Sonnenstunden kommt, dass eine Solaranlage natürlich nicht nur ganz-oder-gar-nicht kennt, sondern schon in der Morgendämmerung anfängt Strom zu gewinnen, nur eben nicht in der vollen Kapazität, wie bei richtigen Sonnenstunden.

Das heißt für Annahme 5️⃣ gehen wir rechnungsbedingt vom pessimistischen unteren Rand aus. Wahrscheinlich wird de facto mehr aus der Anlage zu holen sein, allerdings ist das gar nicht mal so wichtig, wenn wir sowieso einen 50 kW Speicher anschaffen müssen. Denn ob dieser am Ende des Tages die vollen 50 oder nur 30 liefert ist egal; der Anschaffungspreis bleibt der gleiche und zusätzliche laufende Kosten erzeugt er dadurch nicht.

Der so hergestellte Strom hat also eingepreisten Kosten (Equipment und OPEX) von ca. 6 cent pro kWh. Der Break Even (Preis unter dem die Herstellung von Bitcoin profitabel ist) darf bei einer Modellrechnung also auf gar keinen Fall unter den Selbstkostenpreis fallen. Allerdings ist es damit nicht getan. Also Stromerzeuger bekommt man nämlich auf dem freien MArkt eine Einspeisevergütung, also einen Preis pro kWh, ausbezahlt, dafür dass man das Netz mit seinem Strom beliefert. Diese Einspeisevergütung liegt zur Zeit bei ca. 10 bis 12 Cent, was wiederum bedeutet, dass dies der neue Break Even ist. Also zusammengefasst, muss man pro kWh aufgewendeten Strom mindestens 12 Cent in Bitcoin generieren, damit sich der Aufwand überhaupt annähernd lohnt. Annahme 6️⃣ setzt also voraus, dass der Break Even mindestens 12 Cent beträgt - und das ist schon SEHR optimistisch geschätzt. Der Hashpreis errechnet sich aus der Hashrate und dem Bitcoin Preis. Wie in der Grafik zu sehen ist liegt dieser momentan sehr niedrig. Dazu aber mehr in der Rechnung.

Zum Thema Abschreibung halte ich mich kurz. Eine kurze Recherche zu dem Thema hat ergeben, dass eine neue Rechtsprechung erlaubt / vorgibt, Computer und Hardware Equipment im ersten Jahr vollständig abzuschreiben. Das bedeutet buchhalterisch ist das komplette Mining Equipment nach einem Jahr wertlos und in der Bilanz der Mining Operation nicht mehr zu berücksichtigen. Das ist also Annahme 7️⃣: Volle Abschreibung des Equipments in einem Jahr.

Bis dahin ist mir bei der Recherche rund um das Thema Energie die Verteuerung aller Produkte, aber insbesondere von Energie in Deutschland in die Arme gefallen. Da ich hier auch immer ein bisschen Meinung und These einbauen möchte also ein kurzer Überblick.

Besonders Energiepreise haben sich in den letzten 5 Jahren bis zum Mai 2021 (also genau ein Jahr her) im einstelligen Prozentbereich mal hoch und mal runter bewegt. Seit Mai 2021 ist prozentuale Anstieg der Kosten zum ersten Mal über 10% und bleibt seit dem positiv und zweistellig, um dann sogar zum abgelaufenen April einen Wert von über 87% zu erreichen.

Der Situation in Russland die Schuld für diesen drastischen Anstieg der Energie- und Erzeugerkosten zuzuschreiben wäre faul und und falsch. Natürlich sind der Krieg in der Ukraine, die damit verbundenen Lieferengpässe über weite Industrien hinweg, und darüber hinaus auch vom Westen verhängte Sanktionen ein Katalysator der Preissteigerungen.

Allerdings, darf man nicht vergessen, dass dies ein über Jahrzehnte hausgemachtes Problem darstellt. Die Verantwortlichen für diesen rapiden und unhaltbaren Preisanstieg sitzen weder in Moskau, Kiew oder Peking, sondern bei uns in Deutschland. Die deutsche Energiepolitik verfolgt seit über 20 Jahren konsequent nur zwei Ziele: Den Ausstieg aus der Kernenergie und den Ausstieg aus dem Kohlestrom. Investitionen in erneuerbare Energie werden zwar getätigt, aber nicht so konsequent und medienwirksam, wie der viel leichter vermarktbare Ausstieg aus den "dreckigen" Energiequellen. Dieser lässt sich mit Klimazielen, Umweltpolitik und unter ESG Mänteln sehr schön und werbewirksam vermarkten. Der Fakt, dass Deutschland mal Marktführer in der Photovoltaik war und sein gesamtes Know-How and China verloren hat, passt dabei nicht so recht ins Bild. Das heißt, wenn wir unseren Energiebedarf in Deutschland weder mit Atom-, Kohle-, noch erneuerbarem Strom vernünftig decken können, woher nehmen wir ihn dann? Genau, wir müssen ihn teuer einkaufen.

Das Problem haben wir in Deutschland also selber erzeugt. Die systematische Stilllegung zuverlässiger Energiequellen im Laufe der Jahre hat erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Stromkosten für die Industrie und die Haushalte im Land, die in Deutschland zu den höchsten in der entwickelten Welt zählen, und macht die Menschen und den Staat somit extrem abhängig von Energiequellen im Ausland, wie z.B. aus Russland oder Katar. Somit hat die deutsche Politik die Abhängigkeit von Russland und die damit verbundenen gesteigerten Kosten geschaffen, und nicht umgekehrt. Komplexe Systeme, wie die Energieversorgung eines Staates, müssen gesteuert, überwacht und reguliert werden, dazu sollten Politiker und Berater befähigt werden. Jedoch ist eine zentrale Planung dieser Systeme nicht möglich, oder um mit Ludwig von Mises zu zitieren:

The fundamental objection advanced against the practicability of socialism refers to the impossibility of economic calculation. [...]. A socialist management of production would simply not know whether or not what it plans and executes is the most appropriate means to attain the ends sought. It will operate in the dark, as it were. It will squander the scarce factors of production both material and human (labor). Chaos and poverty for all will unavoidably result.

💵 Nun endlich die finanziellen bzw. Bitcoin-seitigen Variablen.

🚂 Hashrate und Difficulty

Die Hashrate bezeichnet die dem Bitcoin Netzwerk zur Verfügung gestellt Rechenleistung. Jeder Mining Node hat eine unterschiedliche Rechenleistung und die Hashrate summiert die gesamte Leistung, die gegenwärtig vorhanden ist. Es ist also keine im Protokoll vorgegebene Größe, sondern ein Abbild der Ist-Situation. Insgesamt bleibt festzuhalten, dass immer mehr Rechenleistung hinzu kommt, da das Mining immer mehr professionalisiert wird und auch die im letzten Post beschriebenen ASIC Chips immer leistungsfähiger werden. Wie bereits im letzten Post erwähnt gehen wir davon aus, dass unsere Operation mit einem Bitmain Antminer S19 XP arbeitet. Annahme 8️⃣ ist, dass wir eine Leistung von 140TH/s erzeugen.

Die steigende Hashrate hat direkten Einfluss auf die Difficulty. Bei der Difficulty handelt es sich um eine in Bitcoins Konsens-Algorithmus eingebaute Logik zur Erhaltung einer stetigen Blockzeit. Anders als die Hashrate ist die Difficulty also eine im Protokoll veranlagte Variable. Neue Blocks sollen ca. alle 10 Minuten der Chain hinzugefügt werden und um sicherzustellen, dass die Rate, mit der neue Blöcke erstellt werden, konstant bleibt und proportional zur Hashrate (Rechenleistung) ist, die dem Netzwerk gewidmet ist. Einfach gesprochen soll das "Rätsel" bei vielen Teilnehmern (Nodes) nicht zu einfach, und bei weniger Nodes nicht zu schwierig sein, und somit wird die Schwierigkeit (Difficulty) regelmäßig vom Protokoll angepasst. Das bedeutet, dass jedes Mal, wenn neue Miner dem Netzwerk beitreten und die Hashrate und damit auch der Wettbewerb zunimmt, auch die Difficulty steigt, wodurch verhindert wird, dass die durchschnittliche Blockzeit abnimmt. Andersherum sinkt die Difficulty, wenn Miner das Netzwerk verlassen. Dadurch bleibt die Blockzeit konstant, obwohl dem Netzwerk mehr oder weniger Rechenleistung gewidmet wird. Eine Anpassung der Schwierigkeit findet alle 2.016 Blocks statt (oder alle 20.160 Minuten = 14 Tage). Die Difficulty ist bisher mit Unterbrechungen immer weiter gestiegen, und seit dem ersten gemineten Block in 2009 ist die Schwierigkeit von 1 auf heute ca. 30 Billionen (Englisch Trillions) geklettert. Deshalb ist davon auszugehen, dass die Schwierigkeit auch weiterhin zunehmen wird.

Für unsere Rechnung gehen wir davon aus, dass sich die Schwierigkeit jedes Jahr verdoppelt, also einem Schwierigkeitsgrad von 100% jedes Jahr als Annahme 9️⃣.

📈 Bitcoin Preis

Der Preis ist wohl die am einfachsten zu verstehende Variable. Den tagesaktuellen Bitcoin Kurs kennt mittlerweile sogar jede Großmutter, er wird auf allen Seiten jeglicher Finanzdienstleister angezeigt, und große Schwankungen sind meistens sogar einen Bericht in der Presse wert. Diese Schwankungen, z.B. der kürzliche Kursverlust von über 50% seit ATH (All time high) letztes Jahr, machen die Rechnung für jede Mining Operation gerade so kompliziert. Denn der Preis ist natürlich ausschlaggebend für die Profitabilität, allerdings lässt er sich genau so gut vorhersagen, wie die nächsten sechs Richtigen im Lotto. Diese Planungsunsicherheit macht das ganze Unterfangen viel risikoreicher als herkömmliche Operationen, bei denen der Preis des hergestellten Produkts einer gewissen Preisstabilität unterliegt, oder maximal im einstelligen Prozentbereich nach oben oder unten ausschlagen kann. Das Ziel der meisten Miner ist es auch so viele bitcoins wie möglich in der Bilanz zu halten, wegen der großen möglichen positiven Preisentwicklung. So wird versucht nur die Anzahl an bitcoins zu verkaufen, die nötig ist, um die Kosten zu decken, denn jeder bitcoin, der heute nicht verkauft wird, könnte morgen schon ein vielfaches wert sein. Oder aber genau andersrum, was einen weiteren Risikofaktor darstellt.

In diesem Zusammenhang interessant zu beobachten ist, dass ein sinkender oder horizontal handelnder (vergleichsweise niedriger) Preis nicht unbedingt bedeutet, dass viele Miner ihr Equipment abstellen. So kann man in dem Chart hier unten sehen (BTC Price vs Hash Rate), dass am 16. Mai eine Hashrate von 258.04 EH/s (1 Exa Hash per Second = 1.000.000.000.000.000.000) erreicht wurde, was sehr nahe dem ATH für Hashrate liegen dürfte.

Für unsere Analyse haben wir konservativ rechnen wollen, weshalb wir von einem Mittelwert von 30.000 Euro ausgegangen sind, da die Anlage so zeitnah wie möglich in Betrieb genommen werden sollte (falls profitabel). Annahme 1️⃣0️⃣: Bitcoin Preis = 30.000 Euro.

💰 Block Reward

Beim Mining sammeln die verschiedenen Nodes (Miner-Knoten) mm Netzwerk Transaktionen und bündeln diese zu Blocks. Als aller erstes, fügt der Miner-Knoten dem neuen Block jedoch eine Transaktion hinzu, bei der er sich selbst den Block Reward sendet, also eine Belohnung für die getane Arbeit. Diese Transaktion, auch Coinbase-Transaktion genannt, ist eine spezielle Art von Transaktion, bei der Coins „aus dem Nichts“ geschaffen werden. Der Block Reward ist also einer von zwei Wegen (noch!) mit dem Mining Geld zu verdienen (die andere Quelle ist die Mining Fee, also eine Gebühr, die bei jeder Transaktion zu entrichten ist). Noch in Klammern weil sich der Block Reward alle 210.000 Blocks halbiert, bis er schlussendlich keine relevante Größe mehr besitzt und demnach gleich Null ist. Zur Zeit liegt der Reward bei 6.25, was bedeutet, dass der erfolgreiche Miner für den neu erstellten Block 6.25 bitcoins (zuzüglich der Fees) erhält. Das nächste sogenannte Halvening findet in 2024 statt, wonach der Reward also auf 3.125 gesenkt wird. Das Protokoll rechnet nicht in Zeitabständen, sondern in Blocks. Da allerdings, wie oben erwähnt, die Blockzeit relativ konstant bei 10 Minuten pro Block gehalten wird, lässt sich rechnerisch ermitteln, wann die jeweiligen Halfenings eintreffen (und sogar wann ungefähr der letzte, einundzwan21gmillionste bitcoin gemined wird - Spoiler Alert: gar nicht. Durch das Halbieren wird es niemals dazu kommen, dass der einundzwan21gmillionste bitcoin gemined werden wird. Allerdings wird es einen letzten bitcoin geben und dieser wird voraussichtlich im Jahr 2140 das Licht des Lebens erblicken). Da wir uns einen kurz- bis mittelfristigen Planungshorizont ausgelegt haben, gehen wir als Annahme 1️⃣1️⃣ von einem Block Reward von 6.25 BTC aus.

🏊‍♀️ Pool Fee

Zunächst mal muss ich hier das Konzept des Mining Pools erklären. Am einfachsten ist es einen Pool mit einer Lotto Spielgruppe zu erklären. Der Mining Prozess ähnelt einem Glücksspiel, bei dem jede//r Spieler//in eine möglichst kleine Zahl erraten muss, und je mehr Rechenleistung ein//e Spieler//in hat, desto häufiger darf diese//r raten bzw. desto schneller kann sie//er hintereinander raten. Um die Chancen zu verbessern schließt man sich also einer Spielgruppe bzw. einem Mining Pool an. Denn so kann man auch mit kleinerer Rechenleistung seine Chancen auf einen Gewinn erhöhen. Der Mining Pool bündelt die Rechenleistung seiner Mitglieder und suggeriert dem Netzwerk so, dass es sich um einen Teilnehmer mit enorm hoher Hashrate handelt. Bei erfolgreichem Minen eines Blocks, werden dann die Gewinne (Block Reward plus Transaktionsgebühr) vom Pool auf seine Mitglieder anteilig der zur Verfügung gestellten Rechenleistung aufgeteilt. Bei der Lotto Spielgruppe würde also der Jackpot auf die Anzahl der Spieler//innen und von der//dem jeweiligen Spieler//in bezahlten Reihen aufgeteilt. Für diese administrativen Aufgaben behält der jeweilige Poolbetreiber in der Regel eine Gebühr ein, meist um die 2%, jedoch ist das von Anbieter zu Anbieter unterschiedlich. Wie bereits angesprochen, wird das Mining immer professioneller und die Difficulty immer schwieriger. Deshalb ist es einer kleinen Mining Operation mit verschwindend geringer Hashrate, im Vergleich zum Gesamtaufkommen, sogut wie unmöglich ohne einen Pool zu arbeiten. Die Größe der Pools werden in der nächsten Grafik sehr gut deutlich, da man hier schön sieht, dass mehr als die Hälfte der gesamten Hashrate unter den sechs größten Pools aufgeteilt wird.

Also, für unsere Analyse nehmen wir also als Annahme 1️⃣2️⃣ eine Pool Fee von 2% an.

🧾 Womit wir endlich zur Rechnung bzw. dem Zusammenziehen aller Annahmen kommen.

Annahme 1️⃣: Strom ist vorhanden Annahme 2️⃣: Mining Equipment ist im Handel vorrätig Annahme 3️⃣: Ein Stromspeicher mit 50 kWh Kapazität wird benötigt Annahme 4️⃣: Peripherie ist vorhanden bzw. vernachlässigbar Annahme 5️⃣: Wir rechnen mit 1525 Sonnenstunden pro Jahr Annahme 6️⃣: Der Break Even beträgt 12 Cents Annahme 7️⃣: Volle Abschreibung des Equipments in einem Jahr Annahme 8️⃣: Erzeugte Rechenleistung von 140TH/s Annahme 9️⃣: Schwierigkeitsgrad von 100% jedes Jahr Annahme 1️⃣0️⃣: Bitcoin Preis = 30.000 Euro Annahme 1️⃣1️⃣: Block Reward von 6.25 BTC Annahme 1️⃣2️⃣: Pool Fee von 2%

Die Berechnung / Projektion ist jetzt eigentlich gar nicht mehr so schwierig. Nachdem man für sich alle Annahmen getroffen hat und diese mit den tatsächlichen Umständen / der Realität abgestimmt hat, bedarf es jetzt keinen großen mathematischen Fähigkeiten mehr. Stattdessen gibt es für diese Zwecke sogenannte Profitability Rechner, mit denen sich relativ schnell verschiedene Szenarien bei abweichenden Variables durchspielen lassen. Einen dieser Rechner stellt Braiins.com zur Verfügung, einer der führenden Anbieter für Mining Software. Trägt man nun die oben gesammelten Variablen in diesen Rechner ein, kalkuliert dieser anhand der der aktuellen Difficulty u.a. Gewinne/Verluste, den Break Even, die Anzahl gemineter bitcoins und auch den Cash Flow.

Gibt man die Variablen nun in den Profitability Rechner ein und schaut sich nur die nächsten 12 Monate an, so bekommt man das folgende Bild.

Was hier gut zu erkennen ist, ist zunächst mal ein End Profit von 1.526 Euro im Jahr. Juhu, denkt man sich also, wir haben Gewinn gemacht. Allerdings ist dieser (1) sehr schmal und somit den Aufwand eigentlich schon gar nicht wert, denn wir haben in unserer Rechnung noch gar keine Arbeitsstunden oder weitere Overheads berücksichtigt, und (2) sind 12 Cents pro kWh ziemlich günstig und eine Anpassung auf nur 18 Cents sorgen schon dafür, dass der Gewinn zu einem Verlust wird.

Weiterhin müssen wir sehen, dass unsere Hardware Value von 35.000 Euro innerhalb nur eines Jahres auf ca. 20.000 gefallen ist, da wir das Mining Equipment im ersten Jahr voll abschreiben müssen und ich für den Speicher mal 5 Jahre veranlagt habe. Unser Cashflow liegt also bei -33.124 Euro, da wir das ganze Equipment im ersten Jahr erstmal angeschafft haben.

Jetzt kann man natürlich überlegen, an welchen Stellschrauben muss ich drehen, um mir ein Szenario zu basteln, das für mich sehr dankenswert ausgeht, ohne gleichzeitig absurd und komplett aus der Luft gegriffen scheint. Also nehmen wir an, der Bitcoin Preis steigt wieder auf sein voriges ATH und läge somit bei ca. 60.000 Euro und meinen Strom bekomme ich deutlich günstiger, also für 6 Cents pro kWh. In solch einem Szenario generieren wir dann tatsächlich ca. 7.800 Euro an Gewinn. Das heißt, wenn wir davon ausgehen, dass das Equipment 5 Jahre lang hält, hätten wir sogar einen kleinen Gewinn zu verbuchen und unsere Investitionskosten wieder raus.

Wenn Mining so eine schlechte Marge hat, warum sollte jemand überhaupt in das Geschäft einsteigen fragt man sich da konsequenterweise. Zunächst Mal gibt es viele Länder auf der Welt, in denen Elektrizität immer noch sehr günstig zu bekommen ist, das steigert natürlich die Marge. Außerdem muss man an die Skalierbarkeit des Mining Equipments denken. Die Großzahl aller ASIC Chips (wenn nicht alle) wird in Asien hergestellt, was bedeutet, dass Mining Rigs dort auch viel günstiger zu kaufen sind, und weitere Betriebskosten (Personal, Miete für die Unterbringung, Wasser für die Kühlung, etc.) dort auch vergleichsweise günstig sind. Hinzu kommt, dass viele der großen Mining Operationen seit mehreren Jahren aktiv sind und dementsprechend von höheren Block Rewards profitieren konnten und viele Investitionen in Equipment dadurch auch schon wieder wettgemacht haben.

Insgesamt bleibt aber festzuhalten, dass Bitcoin Mining kein leichtes und vor allem kein besonders profitables Unterfangen darstellt. Besonders in Deutschland führen die hohen Anschaffungskosten für die Hardware, sowie der hoch subventionierte Strom dazu, dass es sich lohnt seinen gewonnenen Solarstrom ins Netz einzuspeisen. Überschüssiger Strom kann leider durch Bitcoin Mining noch nicht kostengerecht umgewandelt und gespeichert werden (Alternativlösung ist die Umwandlung in Wasserstoff, allerdings ist auch dies eine teure Methode), sodass eine Hybridlösung, in der zwischen Einspeisevergütung zu Stoßzeiten und Bitcoin Mining zu Stromüberflusszeiten gewechselt wird, keinen profitablen Mehrwert erzeugt.

Der Nutzen bei Bitcoin ist gegeben und rechtfertigt den Stromverbrauch. Welchen genauen Nutzen Bitcoin hat, ist ein sehr individuell zu betrachtendes Argument. In entwickelten Ländern und für Sparer, Investoren und Händler bietet Bitcoin z.B. Inflationsschutz und noch viel weiter gedacht könnte Bitcoin in Zukunft den Dollar als Leitwährung ablösen. In armen, viel weniger entwickelten Ländern wird der Nutzen viel kleiner gedacht. Geld ist dort wenig vorhanden und das Senden von solchem aus reicheren Ländern ist extrem teuer. Der Markt für globale Rücküberweisungen (Remittance market) wird auf 450 Milliarden Dollar jährlich geschätzt (zusätzlich einer Dunkelziffer von geschätzten 250 Milliarden Dollar) und die Kosten, die bei diesen Rücküberweisungen anfallen, liegen oft in zweistelligen Prozentbereichen. Dazu kommt, dass viele Menschen einfach keinen direkten Zugang zu Banken haben. Man geht davon aus, dass ca. 30% aller Erwachsenen auf der Welt unbanked sind. Banking the unbanked, also Menschen den Zugang zum Finanzsektor zu ermöglichen ist einer dieser, wenn nicht sogar Bitcoins größter, Nutzen.

Das heißt eine Debatte darüber, ob das Bitcoin Protokoll von PoW auf PoS umgestellt werden sollte, oder darüber ob Bitcoin Mining per se umweltschädlich ist, oder ob sogar sauberer Strom, der beim Mining genutzt wird nicht anderweitig besser verwendet werden könnte, muss nicht geführt werden. Die Frage, die sich stellt, ist ob Mining mit erneuerbaren Energien profitabel erreicht werden kann und ob dies hier in Deutschland möglich ist.

Bei der Profitabilität eines Mining Betriebs auf Solarenergie kann man letztlich davon ausgehen, dass 6 Cent pro kWh bei einem deutlich höheren Bitcoin Preis erreicht werden müssen damit sich der Aufwand und die Investition lohnen. Der globale Mining Betrieb wird immer weiter professionalisiert, was den kWh Preis zusätzlich nach unten treibt. Dazu kommen steigende Difficulty Adjustments, sowie sinkende Block Rewards. Heutzutage sind fossile Brennstoffe weltweit oft noch günstig genug, dass sich an diesen Stellen das Bitcoin Mining lohnt. Allerdings gibt es insgesamt eine starke Tendenz hin zu erneuerbaren Energien und es ist davon auszugehen, dass schon heute über 50% des Mining Betriebs auf erneuerbaren bzw. anderweitig ungenutzten Energien läuft.

Dadurch dass sich der Kostenbereich, in dem sich Bitcoin Mining lohnt immer weiter nach unten verschoben wird, erzeugt Bitcoin eine Incentivierung den überproduzierten Strom, der vom Stromnetz nicht absorbiert werden kann, zu verwenden. Anders als bei der Idee der Energiespeicherung in Wasserstoff, ist Bitcoin Mining eine viel transportablere und direktere Art der Energiespeicherung, da die überschüssige Energie nicht in einem weiteren Produkt wie Wasserstoff, sondern direkt in Geld, gespeichert wird. Diese Incentivierung jegliche Erzeugung von Strom profitabler zu gestalten und dauerhaft Strom zu erzeugen (selbst wenn der erzeugte Strom weniger brächte als die Subventionen und dadurch oft Anlagen ausgeschaltet werden) ist ein klassischer marktwirtschaftlicher Vorgang. Denn ein wichtiger Punkt ist die Subventionierung von Energie in Deutschland. Hierbei wird die Herstellung von erneuerbaren Energien vom Staat unterstützt wird, auch wenn z.B. gar keine Sonne scheint und somit die Solaranlage keinen Strom produziert.

Insgesamt ist eine Tendenz hin zu 100%igem behind-the-meter Mining zu beobachten, also dass Bitcoin ausschließlich an Stellen geminet wird, an denen über produzierter Strom vorhanden ist, der sonst nicht ins Stromnetz eingespeist würde. Damit wären den Kritikern alle Argumente genommen, da auch nicht argumentiert werden kann, dass selbst bei Mining auf Basis von erneuerbaren Energien, dieser Strom anderweitig genutzt werden könnte und somit andernorts wieder fossile Brennstoffe benötigt werden.

Es bleibt also festzuhalten, dass der gesamt Mining Betrieb immer effizienter und ressourcenschonender wird, dabei aber auch immer kompetitiver und somit immer weniger profitabel. Wenn es sich also nicht mehr lohnt selber zu minen, bedeutet dass nicht nur, dass die Einspeisevergütung oder Subventionierung höher ist, sondern auch, dass das nicht investierte Geld einfach direkt in Bitcoin gesteckt werden könnte um damit höhere Erträge zu erzielen.

Ein immer professionalisierterer Mining Betrieb hat aber auch eine Clusterung zu folge, da sich immer stärker nur die großen Mining Operationen und Mining Pools langfristig durchsetzen, die mit viel niedrigeren Margen arbeiten können, als z.B. semi-professionelle Operationen. Anders als in den Kindertagen von Bitcoin, als Mining noch aus den Kellern und Kinderzimmern mit Spielegrafikkarten betrieben wurde und damit eine wirkliche Dezentralisierung der Hashrate garantiert wurde, führt die Clusterung dazu, dass eine kleinere Gruppe von Entscheidungsträgern größere politische und technische Einflussnahme erreicht. Das kann z.B. bei der Einführung von Updates im Protokoll nicht zu vernachlässigende Folgen haben.

🫳🎤

In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!

This weekend I'll be at a family reunion, I've been playing with some of my nephews for a couple of years, but they have younger siblings that also want to play. With that in mind, I'll be prepping to play with all of them but split into an older group (10-13) and a younger (8-10). This article is for the younger group (mostly because they haven't played so I won't need to fill you, dear reader, in on anything).

With that as background, there are two things I think I need to focus on. 1 Keep Moving Maintaining focus for young kids for more than 20 minutes is hard. Combat encounters need to be relatively straightforward (since they're new and combat can be overwhelming with options) and 3 rounds or less. Don't Kill Them Making them scared of dying in the game can be a good way to build tension/buy-in. Killing them in the first session does the opposite. They'll probably never want to play again. In light of this (and the fact that the party is two kids) I'm probably going to be scaling back combat. I'll do that by chopping off hitpoints (which I can usually do on the fly pretty well. I run combat until I think this is going to go too long/poorly and decide this monster will die the next time they hit it), and by reducing damage (which I'll accomplish by omitting the bonus, instead of 1d8+3 slashing damage, simply 1d8). Of course, these modifications won't be necessary all the time, but they are very easy to modify while running combat and don't take a lot of processing power.

Pick an Adventure

Beware the Shadowed Shores In a land few have heard of, and fewer still have visited, lies untold adventure, treasure, and fame. The renowned Captain Farsail has sent out word that she will undertake an expedition to Serpent Isle, but is in need of a crew. Anyone able to hold a sword or cast a spell is welcome, but be warned, the island is as deadly as it is beautiful.

Picking an adventure can be tricky, for now, I just want something short, with maps. I used AdventureLookup and filtered down to early levels and less than 100 pages to find Serpent Isle (to follow along, you might want to pick it up). I wanted something a little different, I'm already running two games set in the same area (not having them interact with each other) and I'd rather not add a third. A jungle island with fiendish snakes sounds like a good change of pace.

I read over the overarching structure of the adventure, it starts with three potential points of interest. Perfect. If needed there are hooks to guide my players in a direction, and a few random encounter tables for creatures and environments.

For this adventure, I think the quicksand would be a good first encounter for a new group. Perhaps give them a chance to reenact The Princess Bride. Later I can use the quicksand as a terrain feature for other random encounters.

An Aside on Random Encounters

I often pick a random encounter that I like and put a little more design into that encounter. Then if/when we roll a random encounter it's a well-designed experience that is genuinely unexpected (the what was prepared, the when was not). Here's a map for the quicksand encounter. The characters might find themselves in the quicksand and need to pull themselves out, as they do maybe a boa will drop on them (if the quicksand isn't dramatic enough). So I drew up this battle map (I'll use small tape measurers and minis on card stock for this weekend since I don't want to travel with my vinyl grid). Thornbushes are either difficult terrain, or you can ignore the movement penalty and take some damage (current thought is 1d2 for every 5 feet you travel in it).

Another note on random encounters: you can push them. You can throw a monster that is way too scary at your party. Treat it like it has half to two-thirds the health. The griffon doesn't want to die, and if its prey is too much bother, it can just leave.

Main Encounters

There are three paths in the adventure: Covewatch Point, Serpent's Lair, and Devil's Spire. The encounters listed here are fairly sparse. Typically I'll prep with a map and a couple of notes and that's plenty. Easily the most complicated encounter is the last, so let's talk about it.

The Covewatch Point is a simple encounter with a few tribal warriors and a lurking tiger.

Serpents Lair is another simple encounter with a charmed crew member and a hypnopython.

There's a spire in the jungle where a devil-worshipper is trying to summon infernal allies from the Hells. The spire has 4 levels, and there's a Spined Devil on a ledge outside. There's a pretty simple dungeon, no need to change it too much. I might drop the damage on the Spined Devil and run the Lemures with minion rules (which you can find in the minions section of this pdf).

Characters

Since I have new players, I'll be pre-making a few characters if they don't want to go through character generation (which is usually where I lose new players). I think options for Cleric, Fighter, Rouge, and Sorcerer would be good. Likely they will decide they want to make their characters from scratch (maybe out of a sense that that's how "real" D&D is played, whatever that is).

When making pre-gen characters, I only fill out the mechanical portions, and I use the "standard array" method in the Player's Handbook: assign the numbers [15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 8] to whatever abilities you wish, then apply bonuses. I don't include backgrounds, but ask the players "what do you think you were doing before the adventure?"

The Cleric

Life Domain

| Race | Armor Class | Hit Points | Proficiency | Speed | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Human Variant | 18 (Chainmail+Shield) | 10 | 2 | 30 |

| STR | DEX | CON | INT | WIS | CHA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 14 (+2) | 8 (-1) | 14 (+2) | 12 (+1) | 16 (+3) | 10 (+0) |

Proficiencies

Saving Throws: Wisdom, Charisma

Skills: History (+3), Medicine (+6)

Weapons/Armor: Simple Weapons, All Armor, Shields

Senses: Perception +3

Languages Common +1

Feats

Warcaster You have practiced casting spells in the midst of combat, learning techniques that grant you the following benefits: * You have advantage on Constitution saving throws that you make to maintain your concentration on a spell when you take damage. * You can perform the somatic components of spells even when you have weapons or a shield in one or both hands. * When a hostile creature's movement provokes an opportunity attack from you, you can use your reaction to cast a spell at the creature, rather than making an opportunity attack. The spell must have a casting time of 1 action and must target only that creature.

Spells (+5, DC 13)

Cantrips: Light, Thaumaturgy, Sacred Flame

Level 1 [2-Slots]: bless, cure wounds, detect magic, guiding bolt, inflict wounds, shield of faith

Actions

• Mace: Action +4 to hit, 1d6+2 bludgeoning damage.

The Fighter

Two-Weapon Fighting

| Race | Armor Class | Hit Points | Proficiency | Speed | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Elf (Wood)| 14 (Leather) | 12 | 2 | 35 |

| STR | DEX | CON | INT | WIS | CHA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 (+1) | 16 (+3) | 15 (+2) | 8 (-1) | 14 (+2) | 10 (+0) |

Proficiencies

Saving Throws: Strength, Constitution

Skills: Actobatics, Survival, Perception

Weapons/Armor: All Weapons, All Armor, Shields

Senses: Perception +4, Darkvision

Languages Common, Elvish

Abilities

Mask of the Wild You can attempt to hide when you are only lightly obscured by foliage, heavy rain, falling snow, mist, and other natural phenomena.

Fey Ancestry You have advantage on saving throws against being charmed, and magic can't put you to sleep.

Trance Elves don't sleep, instead, they meditate for 4 hours daily.

Second Wind On your turn, you can use your bonus action to regain 1d10+LVL hit points. Once you use this, you can't until you finish a short or long rest.

Two-Weapon Fighting When you engage in two-weapon fighting, you can add your ability modifier to the damage of the second attack.

Actions

• Shortsword: Action +5 to hit, 1d6+3 slashing
• Off-Hand Shortsword: Bonus Action +5 to hit, 1d6+3 slashing
• Longbow: Action +5 to hit, 1d8+3 piercing

The Rogue

| Race | Armor Class | Hit Points | Proficiency | Speed | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Halfling (Lightfoot) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 25 |

| STR | DEX | CON | INT | WIS | CHA 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 (-1) | 16 (+3) | 12 (+1) | 15 (+2) | 10 (+0) | 14 (+2) |

Proficiencies

Saving Throws: Dexterity, Intelligence

Tools/Skills: Thieves Tools (+7), Acrobatics (+5), Intimidation (+4), Investigation (+4), Stealth (+7)

Weapons/Armor: Light Armor, Simple Weapons, hand crossbows, longswords, rapiers, shortswords

Senses: Perception +2

Languages Common, Halfling

Abilities

Lucky When you roll a 1 on a d20 for an attack, saving throw or ability check, you can reroll the die and must use the new roll.

Brave You have advantage on saving throws against being frightened.

Halfling Nimbleness You can move through the space of any creature that is medium or larger.

Expertise Double your proficiencies with two skills (stealth, thieves' tools)

Sneak Attack Once per turn, deal an additional 1d6 damage on an attack. To use this benefit you must use a finesse or ranged weapon and either have advantage on the attack or have an ally within 5 feet of the target.

Actions

• Rapier: Action +5 to hit, 1d8+3 piercing damage.
• Shortbow: Action +5 to hit, 1d6+3 piercing damage.
• Dagger: Action +5 to hit, 1d4+3 piercing damage.
• Off-Hand Dagger Bonus Action +5 to hit 1d6 piercing damage

The Sorcerer

Brass Dragon Bloodline (Fire)

| Race | Armor Class | Hit Points | Proficiency | Speed | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Human Variant | 14 (Draconic Resilience) | 9 | 2 | 30 |

| STR | DEX | CON | INT | WIS | CHA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 (+0) | 12 (+1) | 14 (+2) | 14 (+2) | 8 (-1) | 16 (+3) |

Proficiencies

Saving Throws: Constitution, Charisma

Skills: Arcana, Persuasion

Weapons/Armor: Daggers, darts, slings, quarterstaff, light crossbows

Senses: Perception -1

Languages Common, Draconic +1

Spells

Cantrips: Fire Bolt, Dancing Lights, Mage Hand, Prestidigitation

Level 1 [2-Slots]: Burning Hands, Magic Misile

Actions

Quarterstaff: Action +2 to hit, 1d6(8) bludgeoning damage.

Music

Last but most importantly is prepping some ambiance. I made this playlist. It has a few different vibes, from peaceful interlude to stressful jungle exploration.

Dig Deep

Welcome to today's episode of Libretech's system, where we dive into the fascinating world of blogging and decentralized technologies. Whether you're a seasoned blogger or just starting out, I'll guide you through making the most of your blogging experience and introduce you to platforms that can revolutionize how you create and share content.

Segment 1: Making Yourself Comfortable with Blogs

Topic Overview: - Understanding the basics of blogging and its significance. - The purpose and function of blogs to help you feel comfortable using them.

Key Points: - Blogs are powerful tools for personal expression, professional networking, sharing expertise, and community engagement. - Embrace the potential of blogs to connect with a wider audience and share your voice.

Segment 2: How People Use Blogs

Topic Overview: - Various uses of blogs from personal diaries to professional platforms.

Key Points: - Personal Expression: Share personal stories, hobbies, and experiences. - Professional Networking: Build your personal brand and connect with industry peers. - Sharing Expertise: Establish authority in your field by sharing valuable insights. - Community Engagement: Foster communities around shared interests.

Segment 3: Recognizing a Blog

Topic Overview: - Distinguishing features of blogs compared to other websites.

Key Points: - Common elements: posts, comments, archives. - Recognize blogs by their regular updates and interactive features.

Segment 4: Blog Anatomy: Dissecting a Typical Blog

Topic Overview: - Detailed breakdown of a typical blog structure.

Key Points: - Headers: Title, logo, and navigation. - Sidebars: Widgets, recent posts, social media links. - Footers: Additional navigation links, copyright information, contact details. - Main Content Areas: Where posts are displayed.

Segment 5: Starting a Blog

Topic Overview: - Initial steps to start a blog.

Key Points: - Choosing a Platform: WordPress, Blogger, Medium. - Setting Up: Create your account and start your first post.

Segment 6: Choosing What to Blog About

Topic Overview: - Deciding on blog topics.

Key Points: - Passion: Write about what excites you. - Knowledge: Share insights where you have expertise. - Audience: Consider what your readers find interesting.

Segment 7: Creating a Successful Blog

Topic Overview: - Tips for a standout blog.

Key Points: - Set Clear Goals: Define what you want to achieve. - Write Well: Focus on clarity, engagement, and value. - Post Frequently: Regular updates keep readers engaged. - Engage with Comments: Foster community by responding to readers.

Segment 8: Designing for Success

Topic Overview: - Visual and functional design of a blog.

Key Points: - Visual Appeal: Attractive and consistent design. - User-Friendly Layout: Easy navigation and readability. - Responsive Design: Ensure it looks good on all devices.

Segment 9: Blogging Platforms to Try

Overview of Platforms:

1. nBlog
2. Description: A simple, minimalistic blogging platform using Node.js.

3. Link: nBlog on GitHub

4. uBlog

5. Description: A flexible Node.js-based blogging platform with more features.

6. Link: uBlog on GitHub

7. Paragraph.xyz

8. Description: A modern blogging platform with a beautiful writing environment.

9. Link: Paragraph.xyz

10. Unstoppable Domains (Web 3 Site Via IPFS)

11. Description: Offers decentralized websites via IPFS, perfect for Web 3.0 enthusiasts.
12. Link: Unstoppable Domains

Technologies and Attitudes Worth Considering

Thank you for joining us on this journey through the world of blogging and decentralized platforms. Whether you're here to start a blog, enhance your current one, or explore the future of decentralized content creation, there's something for everyone.

Don't forget to check out our articles and NFTs on Nostr and Warpcaster. You can own and collect these unique digital assets while supporting innovative technology.

Stay curious, stay engaged, and keep exploring the endless possibilities of the digital world.

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This will be the first of two posts. This one will summarize what we know about the connection between punishment and providing public goods. The follow-up post will be in ~meta and will be my thoughts on how this applies to Stacker News, specifically.

For the sake of brevity and clarity, I speak a little loosely in parts.

What are public goods?

A public good is an economic good that is neither rivalrous nor excludable in consumption. Ok, what does that mean?

• Economic goods are anything with a positive equilibrium price; i.e. things people are willing to pay for.

• Rivalrous goods can only be used by a single person; i.e. one person's use precludes someone else's use.

• Excludable goods can only be used with the permission of the seller.

So, a public good is something valuable that is available to everyone and usable by everyone. A common example of a public good is radio broadcasts. Once it's put out there anyone can receive it and my use won't prevent yours.

The concern with public goods is under-provision. That's because each of us has an incentive to not pay for it, since we'll get it either way (as long as someone pays enough for it to be produced). That's the Free Rider Problem.

There are many possible entrepreneurial solutions to overcome this (like inserting paid ads into the broadcast). Quick aside: the intentional combination of an economic good (the radio program) with an economic bad (the ads) is sometimes called a "kludge".

The role of punishment

Another solution to certain public goods situations, is to punish people for not chipping in. I'm most familiar with this in the setting of subsistence communities. Often, these communities have a communal food distribution because that acts as insurance for those who tried but had poor luck at hunting or fishing or whatever it is.

Because they've created a public good out of their food supply, each member of the community now has an incentive to put in less effort, because they'll get to eat either way. If everyone shirks, though, there won't be enough food for the community. That's why shirking tends to be heavily punished in these communities. That punishment will generally come in the form of some type of ostracism, possibly including loss of access to the communal food.

In that scenario, the public good was an artificial construct in the first place, so it was possible to exclude the bad actor. Also, as some of you probably thought, that food ends up being rivalrous if not enough was produced.

Still, one way to deal with free-riding is to punish it sufficiently that it's preferrable to just do the work.

Punishment itself can be a public good

A punishment like ostracism is also costly to the punisher, assuming they value that relationship. I may be tempted not to ostracize my lazy friend, which makes him less likely to change his ways. If I choose to ostracize my friend, the cost is borne by me, but I share the benefits with the rest of the community.

There are also scenarios where it's sufficient for one person to implement a punishment. This is basically the situation with criminal punishments. If I lock someone up for their antisocial behavior, the whole community benefits, but it comes at great expense to me.

TL;DR

In the context of producing public goods, punishing non-producers is itself a public good, because it produces benefits that are accessible to everyone. That means there likely won't be an optimal amount of punishment (dispersed benefits and concentrated costs), unless some other layer of compensation develops for those who do the punishing.

Referrences

Here are some publicly available sources for those who want to do a deep dive on the topic. I was initially going to tie them into this post, but I got carried away with my stream of consciousness and said most of what I wanted to say.

Cooperation and Punishment in Public Goods Experiments Different punishment systems in a public goods game with asymmetric endowments Implementing punishment and reward in the public goods game

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/619793

I am enjoying my kids so much these days.

I have a 10YO girl and 12YO boy. I feel like I just want time to stay still. But why do a need to feel like it is going to get worse or change? It got me thinking what can I do to always enjoy them. Please follow along on my journey while I learn and explore ways to always enjoy our kids.
Here are some helpful ideas:

1. This is the most important thing I do to enjoy my kids. Fill your own cup first. That could be drinking coffee by yourself in the morning, working out, taking a shower (shout out new Moms), meeting up with other parents or just eating a carton of Ben and Jerry's. Whatever it may be, it needs to make you feel happy and satisfy your soul.

Personal Example: I am a homeschool Mom and am with my kids all day. I love to wake up in the morning and take a walk or do yoga with my friends before my kids are awake. If that doesn't work out, I will sit and drink coffee by myself and read or scroll the internet.

1. When your child is talking to you about something important, stop what your doing and look into their eyes and listen to what they are saying. We get so busy that we are always multi-tasking but sometimes we need to stop and do the one thing that is most important and listen. Try to understand what is so important to them. Connect with them.

Personal Example: My 12 YO son has a infrequent studder. If I am not paying attention to him while he is talking to me, it tends to become more frequent. This helps me to stop whatever thing I think is important and listen to what he is saying.

1. If at all possible, try to find time to spend one-on-one time with each child. This can be nearly impossible at times when our schedules are so busy but it is very important to try and do. Even if it is a 5 minute walk around the block or a trip to the grocery store.

Personal Example: My alone time with each of my kids are when the other one is at their extracurricular activties. We live in a rural area so we can't run home during their activites. Instead we go to the library, grocery store or my favorite one in the summer is paddleboarding.

1. From @theconsciousparentinghub "the greatest gift a child can ever receive is a parent who can emotionally regulate. A parent who can emotionally regulate is patient, open for connection, and, most importantly, allows the child to fail, as that's where the most learning occurs." I am still guilty of trying to help my child not fail but am working on it daily.

Personal Example: I have quit drinking alcohol since Feb 2023. This has helped me so much with connection of my children, being present and my emotional regulation is the best it's ever been, just ask my kids! Instead of worrying about when it's five o'clock so I can unwind with a glass of wine, cocktail or beer, I now am focusing on what healthy dinner I can make for my family, or what fun thing we can do after we eat. Some people can manage their alcohol, family life and everything but for me quiting has been a huge part of a missing peice of connection to my family.

I hope this helps other families out there. And please let me know of other ideas so we can continue along this path of enjoyment. Thanks Shasta

https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3-1/

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/619556

ฉบับ Highlights

Demand ของ Bitcoin มาจาก ความต้องการใช้มันเป็น ‘เงิน’ (monetary demand) ที่มีหน้าที่เป็นแหล่งเก็บรักษามูลค่า (store of value)

หน้าที่ของเงิน

1. Store of Value* แหล่งเก็บรักษามูลค่า

   1.1 Salability across Time : การรักษามูลค่าผ่านกาลเวลา แสดงถึงการเป็นแหล่งเก็บออมที่ดี - Durable = ความคงทน ยากต่อการทำลายหรือทำให้สูญสลาย เพราะธุรกรรมของ bitcoin คือ การบันทึกลงบัญชีที่ตรวจสอบได้และไม่สามารถแก้ไขได้ เป็นความจริงที่ยอมรับโดยทั่วกันทั้ง Network - Scare = จำนวนจำกัดที่ 21 ล้านเหรียญ มี stock-to-flow ที่สูงที่สุด (สูงกว่าทองคำ) อัตราการผลิตต่ำเมื่อเทียบกับ supply ที่มีอยู่ทั้งหมด bitcoin ถูกสร้างโดยการทำ mining ซึ่งต้องใช้พลังงานมหาศาล

   1.2 Salability across Space : ความสามารถในการขนส่งผ่านระยะไกล ขนส่งง่าย - Digital = ไม่มีตัวตนทาง physical ทำให้การขนส่งให้กันทำได้ง่าย อนุมัติธุรกรรมด้วยตนเอง ไม่มีข้อจำกัดด้านการขนส่ง ไม่ต้องมีตัวกลาง

   1.3 Salability across Scale : ความสามารถในการแตกออกเป็นหน่วยย่อย เพื่อใช้ในการทำธุรกรรมเล็ก-ใหญ่ได้ ซึ่ง 1 Bitcoin = 100,000,000 Satoshi

2. Medium of Exchange สื่อกลางในการแลกเปลี่ยน เป็นผลมาจาก Salability across Scale

3. Unit of Account หน่วยวัดมูลค่า เป็นผลมาจาก Network effect/Stability ใช้เทียบกับสินทรัพย์อื่น เพื่อดูการเสื่อมมูลค่า การเกิด hyperinflation มีผลให้ราคาสินค้าผันผวนมาก ท้ายสุดคนจะย้ายไปใช้สกุลเงินที่มั่นคงกว่า (stable)

4. Tools of Control เครื่องมือการควบคุมประชากร เมื่อ Bitcoin ไม่มีตัวกลาง คุณสมบัติข้อนี้จะค่อนข้างอ่อนแอมาก เมื่อถูกใช้เป็นเครื่องมือของโจร บัญชีจะไม่สามารถถูก freeze ได้ แต่จริงๆ แล้วเราก็ไม่ควรเชื่อใจธนาคารเลย

Bitcoin ชนะ Dollar ได้ไหม ?

ไม่จำเป็นต้องเอาชนะ ปกติ 1 สกุลเงินจะเปลี่ยนทุกประมาณ 100-150 ปี เนื่องจากอำนาจในการผลิตจะกระจุกตัวอยู่ที่สกุลเงินหลักสกุลนั้น และเกิดเงินเฟ้อตามมา นั่นคือ ความเป็นเสถียรภาพ หรือ Stability จะโดนทำลายด้วยตัวเอง และตั้งแต่ปี 1971 มูลค่าของ Dollar สูญเสียไปเรื่อยๆ เกือบ 99% แล้ว

ดังนั้น แค่ Bitcoin อยู่รอดได้ เดี๋ยวมันจะโตขึ้นเอง

คุณสมบัติที่สำคัญของ Bitcoin คือ ความเป็น Decentralized !

siamstr

Yesterday was a classic case of one step forward, two steps back. I spent the day wrestling with my digital chaos, trying to restore some order to my data. The drives were finally formatted, but the process of shuffling files and splitting folders felt like herding cats. Just as I started to feel a sense of accomplishment in putting everything together, my SSD decided to throw a tantrum, slipping into Read-Only mode. My heart sank as I feared the worst – a dying SSD. The prospect of losing precious data is a nightmare, and I was starting to feel like a helpless captain on a sinking ship.

To clear my head, I decided to escape the digital abyss for a while. A trip to the pharmacy was in order. The local pharmacy had previously tried to scam me, charging an exorbitant price for medication. Determined to find a better deal, I ventured to the larger pharmacy in town. Success! I managed to purchase the same medication for a fraction of the price. Victory was sweet.

Armed with my medication and a slightly improved mood, I returned to the hostel to confront my data disaster once more. But first, a pit stop at the supermarket for some much-needed sustenance – chips, water, and the promise of a Kilimanjaro view from the hostel bar. As I enjoyed my surprisingly decent dinner, rice and beans, I took a break from the data madness and simply soaked in the stunning scenery.

This morning, I woke up feeling refreshed and ready to tackle the data mess again. A fascinating conversation with a British man born in Kenya during the colonial era provided a welcome distraction before diving back into the digital trenches. While I'm hopeful of finishing the data cleanup in the next two days, I'm also prepared for the possibility of a longer battle.

As for today, I plan on taking it easy. My foot is healing nicely, and I'm enjoying the little walks on the dusty streets of Tanzania once in a while. One step at the time. Stay tuned for more updates on my data adventure and other escapades of my nomadic life.

On a side note, I recently had a chicken that was actually edible. It was a rare treat compared to the typical tough, bony specimens served here. The accompanying photo shows the chicken and my trusty 32-liter backpack, a testament to my minimalist lifestyle. Unfortunately, the internet is being particularly frustrating today, making even the simplest tasks feel like an uphill battle.

I'll keep you posted on my progress. Until next time!

This is your chance to update your predictions from June: https://stacker.news/items/585231/r/Undisciplined. July picks are due before the end of July.

If your new, check out the June link for details. This contest will be open to new entrants all the way through the end of the NBA regular season.

If you want to join, put your predictions in the comments for MVP, Champion, and All NBA 1st Team.

Current Predictions

| | @Undisciplined | @grayruby | @gnilma | @BitcoinAbhi | @Bell_curve | @0xbitcoiner | |----|---------------|--------------|-----------|----------------|---------------|----------------| | Champ | Denver | Pacers | OKC | Denver | Celtics | Pacers | | MVP | Luka | Giannis | SGA | Luka | Luka | Jokic | | All NBA | Jokic | Jokic | SGA | Jokic | Jokic | Jokic | | | Giannis | Giannis | Jokic | Giannis | Giannis | Giannis | | | Luka | Luka | Luka | Luka | Luka | Luka | | | Ant | Mitchell | Brunson | Ant | Ant | Ant | | | SGA | Brunson | Wemby | SGA | SGA | Brunson |

I'm going to bail on my Denver pick. They've clearly gotten worse, while other contenders have clearly gotten better. It's hard to choose between the Bucks and Thunder, but I'm going to take the Thunder as my 2025 champs.

Prize

870 sats plus all future zaps

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/619305

So, as they say, idiot and bitcoin are soon parted or something like that.

It happened so that I had a personal black swan event, where the car, the teeth, the house, the parent's health - all falling apart within a week. Ended maxing up my overdraft and still was out of required money. So that's why we need savings, right? As all of my savings are in Bitcoin, I had to use some of it to cover the required amount and decided to sell it on hodlhodl. Not really familiar with the platform as was buying on it 1 time, I just sorted by best available offers and chose 1st one with a 100% rating and 8 successful trades, sounds good - right? Entered details, locked btc, received the money via PayPal - had a nice chat with the seller, left a 5 start review and closed the browser. Only to get an email couple of min later that the buyer opened an ticket:

I was devastated, I opened the link and replied on the case providing detailed explanation what happened and where. Only to find out that 10 min later Paypal decided to

Half an hour on the chat support with paypal - and no luck. I cannot give them confirmation of the purchase that they want - there is a hodlhodl chat, but no personal info so no proof. They told me to wait 72 hours, but I don't believe there is any outcome. Suggested me to file the police report, but I don't think it can go anywhere.

Bad luck guys, never use Paypal there, transaction can be reverted in like 10 min

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/619262

Yesterday's edition https://stacker.news/items/617823/r/Undisciplined

• • -

July 23, 2023 📅

📝 TOP POST

Is Lightning Scaling Bitcoin in a Way Nobody Predicted? - Bitfinex blog

Link to https://blog.bitfinex.com/education/is-lightning-scaling-bitcoin-in-a-way-nobody-predicted/

3623 sats \ 11 comments \ @nicosey \ ~bitcoin

💬 TOP COMMENT

https://stacker.news/items/212838/r/Undisciplined?commentId=212842

Excerpt

Day 99 of snailposting everyday 'til BTC hits $100k.

__@_'-'

114 sats \ 5 replies \ @orthwyrm

From Daily discussion thread by @saloon in ~null

🏆 TOP STACKER

1st place @k00b

4351 stacked \ 2192 spent \ 2 posts \ 4 comments \ 0 referrals

🗺️ TOP TERRITORY

~bitcoin

everything bitcoin related

founded by @k00b on Tue May 02 2023

15.3k stacked \ 0 revenue \ 22.3k spent \ 54 posts \ 119 comments

https://imgprxy.stacker.news/fsFoWlgwKYsk5mxx2ijgqU8fg04I_2zA_D28t_grR74/rs:fit:960:540/aHR0cHM6Ly9tLnN0YWNrZXIubmV3cy8yMzc5Ng

July 23, 2022 📅

📝 TOP POST

Tether is announcing something on Monday, but what?

Excerpt

I'm assuming that's what is announcing ... the alpha release of some type of messenger with video, voice and text that does not rely on central servers and lets you send and receive bitcoin. Anyone have a better clue, or additional info on it?

830 sats \ 17 comments \ @P2P_bitcoin \ ~bitcoin

💬 TOP COMMENT

https://stacker.news/items/48572/r/Undisciplined?commentId=48576

Excerpt

I think I found a small "bug". All Daily Discussion threads always say "yesterday". No matter if they are from today or a month ago.

342 sats \ 2 replies \ @tomlaies

From Daily discussion thread by @saloon in ~null

🏆 TOP STACKER

1st place @cryptocoin

3313 stacked \ 890 spent \ 15 posts \ 46 comments \ 0 referrals

🗺️ TOP TERRITORY

~bitcoin

everything bitcoin related

founded by @k00b on Tue May 02 2023

43.2k stacked \ 0 revenue \ 48.6k spent \ 72 posts \ 192 comments

https://imgprxy.stacker.news/fsFoWlgwKYsk5mxx2ijgqU8fg04I_2zA_D28t_grR74/rs:fit:960:540/aHR0cHM6Ly9tLnN0YWNrZXIubmV3cy8yMzc5Ng

July 23, 2021 📅

📝 TOP POST

"Either plebs will seek out the truth and choose to defend me while I build or I will fail." - Untapped Growth

Link to https://untappedgrowth.com/decentralizedgrazing-ug-response/

3 sats \ 2 comments \ @ThrillerX_ \ ~bitcoin

💬 TOP COMMENT

https://stacker.news/items/548/r/Undisciplined?commentId=556

Excerpt

Did you used to show the Ethereum logo? My guess is this is jack proclaiming his preference for Bitcoin in a passive-aggressive way.

1 sat \ 1 reply \ @anthony

From #eth Hashtag on Twitter Shows Ethiopian Flag 🤣 by @k00b in ~bitcoin

🏆 TOP STACKER

1st place @nout

5 stacked \ 13 spent \ 2 posts \ 2 comments \ 0 referrals

🗺️ TOP TERRITORY

~bitcoin

everything bitcoin related

founded by @k00b on Tue May 02 2023

58 stacked \ 0 revenue \ 152 spent \ 9 posts \ 14 comments

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/619227

Obra póstuma del poeta colombiano nacido en Don Matías el 20 de enero de 1948.

Bienvenidos a este blog dedicado a la obra póstuma del poeta colombiano Francisco Luis Arroyave Tabares (mi padre), nacido en Don Matías el 20 de enero de 1948-2010. Aquí estaré publicando cada uno de los 175 sonetos de su colección inédita ‘Sonetos para el siglo XXI y un Festival Circadiano (1984-1987)

En este blog, compartiré las traducciones de los sonetos que he estado publicando. Mi objetivo es dar a conocer al público hispanohablante el legado de este colombiano, quien escribió una de las colecciones más grandes de sonetos en inglés.

El escritor siempre enfatizo que al traducir los sonetos sonarian tan natural que no se sentiria que estan escritos con toda la estructura en lengua inglesa.

Espero que disfruten de este jardín de palabras arrancadas de la soledad de una habitación cerrada.

Frank Duna

Soneto 3 por Francisco Luis Arroyave Tabares

```

Con Una Lengua no Escrita en Mis Genes

Hay muchas maneras más artísticas en las que puedo ensayar mi amor por la vida, cambiando lo adverso por formas placenteras que complacen a la vista hermosa.

Quizás una cosa parezca dolorosa, solo una cosa que intentaré enterrar, usando el lenguaje del universo en un ritmo abundante de un lugar a otro.

Sé que mis hijos carecen de sangre divina y hablan un idioma no escrito en mis genes, ambiciosamente tratando de ser furiosos aurigas... Transmiten la alegría y la tristeza de mi tierra a donde cada ser humano mejor conviene, más allá de los sueños de la riqueza repentina. *** Anotaciones: 2- to rehearse = contar en detalle. 6- I will try to inhearse = intentaré forjar, intentaré enterrar. 8- ictus = énfasis rítmico o métrico, o acento. 9- Children = los propios versos del poeta. 11- jehu = auriga furioso. 12- sod = tierra, las cenizas cuando alguien muere. 14- parvenu = una persona que adquiere riqueza o poder de repente. ```

Análisis “Con Una Lengua no Escrita en Mis Genes”

Octava (Primeros Ocho Versos)

La octava del poema presenta la premisa central y establece el tono.

1- Temas: La octava explora la idea de transformar la adversidad en belleza a través del arte. El poeta reflexiona sobre las múltiples maneras en que puede expresar su amor por la vida, utilizando la creatividad para superar las dificultades.

2- Imágenes: El uso de "rehearse" (ensayar) sugiere un proceso continuo de perfeccionamiento y adaptación. "Language of the universe" evoca una conexión profunda y universal, que trasciende las barreras individuales y culturales.

3- Recursos Poéticos:

• Metáfora: "Rehearse" como metáfora de detallar y expresar experiencias.
• Esquema de Rima: ABBA ABBA, típico de un soneto petrarquista, que crea una estructura rítmica y armoniosa.
• Aliteración: Las repeticiones de sonidos, como en "forms that please the beautiful," crean una musicalidad agradable.
• Encabalgamiento: Las líneas fluyen unas en otras sin interrupción, lo que da una sensación de continuidad y movimiento.

Sexteto (Últimos Seis Versos)

El sexteto proporciona una reflexión y un cierre al poema.

1- Temas: El sexteto se centra en los "hijos" del poeta, una metáfora de sus versos. Reflexiona sobre su naturaleza y su capacidad para transmitir emociones profundas, a pesar de no tener un origen divino.

2- Imágenes: La imagen de los "hijos" que "lack divine blood" pero que aún así hablan un lenguaje significativo, subraya la capacidad de las creaciones del poeta para tener impacto. "Ambitiously hiring to be jehu" sugiere una energía y ambición desbordantes.

3- Recursos Poéticos:

• Metáfora: "Children" como metáfora de los versos del poeta. Esquema de Rima: CDECDE, manteniendo la estructura clásica del soneto petrarquista.
• Simbolismo: "Divine blood" simboliza la perfección innata que las creaciones del poeta no tienen, pero que no es necesaria para que sean significativas.
• Contraste: El contraste entre la herencia genética ("written in my genes") y el lenguaje universal hablado por las creaciones del poeta enfatiza su singularidad y trascendencia.

Estructura General y Significado

El soneto en su totalidad examina el poder de la expresión artística para transformar la adversidad en belleza y para comunicar emociones profundas. La octava establece la idea de utilizar el arte para rehacer y embellecer los desafíos de la vida, mientras que el sexteto reflexiona sobre la identidad independiente y la influencia de las creaciones del poeta. Esta interacción entre la experiencia personal y la expresión universal subraya el tema central del poema de la trascendencia artística.

Este análisis desglosa el poema en sus partes constituyentes, destacando los temas, las imágenes y los recursos poéticos utilizados por Francisco Luis Arroyave Tabares para crear un soneto que explora la relación entre la adversidad y la belleza a través del arte y la expresión creativa.

Conteo de Silabas y Rima:

``` Soneto 3 by Francisco Luis Arroyave Tabares

With A Tongue Not Written In My Genes

10 There are many ways that are more artful (A) 10 In which my love for life I can rehearse (B)
10 Changing in this way what has been adverse (B) 10 Into those forms that please the beautiful. (A)

10 One thing perhaps might seem to be doleful (A) 10 Just one thing that I will try to inhearse. (B)
10 Using the language of the universe (B) 10 From place to place in ictus plentiful. (A)

10 I know that my children lack divine blood (C)
10 And speak a tongue not written in my genes (D) 10 Ambitiously hiring to be jehu... (E)
10 They convey joy and sadness of my sod (C)
10 To where each human acme best convenes (D) 10 Further than dreams of lavish parvenu. (E)
*** 2- to rehearse = to tell I detail. 6- ....I will try to inhearse= I will try to forge, I will try to put underground. 8- ictus= Rhytmical or metrical stress, or accent. 9- Children= the poet's own verses. 11- jehu = furious charioteer. 12- sod= dirt, the ashes when someone dies. 14- parvenu= a person who acquires sudden wealth or power. ```

Soneto Original:

“Sonetos para el Siglo XXI y un Festival Circadiano” escrito por Francisco Luis Arroyave Tabares (1984-1987) Copyright1987

Imagen por Frank Duna

ออกเดินทางสู่แกรนด์ไลน์

"สวัสดีทุ่งม่วง เฮียโต้งสั่งลุย #siamstr #เฮียสั่งลุย" ก๊อปประโยคนี้ไว้เลยครับ

ทบทวน 2 ตอนที่แล้วกันก่อนนะครับ ในตอนที่ 1 เราพูดคุยให้เห็นภาพว่า ระบบแห่งความอิสระ ของทุ่งม่วง เป็นยังไง แตกต่างกับโลก www แค่ไหน ในตอนที่ 2 เราพูดคุยกันเรื่องของ 3 อย่าง ที่เราต้องเตรียมตัวและทำความเข้าใจเป็นเบื้องต้น ก่อนจะเข้าสู่ทุ่งม่วง ได้แก่ กุญแจคู่ แอพ และ แฮชแทค

ทีนี้เราก็พร้อมจะลงไปวิ่งเล่นในทุ่งม่วงแล้วครับ วิธีการมันง่ายกว่าที่คิดเยอะครับ ถ้าเราไล่ลำดับการปรับจูน mindset กันเรียบร้อยแล้ว สิ่งที่เราต้องทำต่อไปก็แค่ โหลดแอพ เสร็จเลยครับ แค่นั้นเลย

วิธีการโหลด วิธีการติดตั้ง มีเพื่อนในทุ่งม่วงทำไว้ดีมากๆ หลายท่านเลย ผมคิดว่าตรงนั้นเราทำ link ไปอ่านกันได้ครับ ผมจะลงไว้ในบทความนี้ด้วย เพียงแค่ว่าก่อนจะลงมือโหลด ติดตั้ง เซตอัพนั้น เรามาดูภาพรวมกันก่อนที่เราจะทำต่อไปนั้น มันมีอะไรบ้าง พอเรารู้ว่าจะทำอะไรแล้ว เราจะทำตาม guideline ที่เพื่อนเราบอกขั้นตอนไว้ได้เข้าใจยิ่งขึ้น

คอนเเสป สำหรับการเริ่มติดตั้งและสร้างบัญชีประจำตัวเรามีดังนี้ครับ 1.โหลดแอพ 2.กดสร้างกุญแจ Secret และ public 3.จดหรือสำเนา กุญแจทั้ง 2 ดอก ไว้เพื่อป้องกันการสูญหาย หรือลงแอพอื่นๆ เราจะใช้แค่กุญแจคู่นี้ตลอดไป 4.ใส่ชื่อที่จะใช้เรียกตัวเองในทุ่งม่วง เพื่อนๆเราจะเห็นเป็นชื่อนี้ แค่นี้เองครับ 4 ขั้นตอนคุณก็จะพร้อมเล่นทุ่งม่วงแล้ว (คือเอาแค่นี้ก่อนครับ ให้เข้าไปโพสได้ เม้นท์ได้ จริงๆมันมีปรับแต่งอีกหน่อยแต่เอาไว้ตอนหน้านะ)

***ในคำแนะนำด้านล่างนี้จะมีในส่วนที่มีการติดตั้งเรื่องของ บิทคอยน์ หรือ lightning zap ณ จุดเริ่มต้นนี้ พวกเราข้ามไปก่อนได้ครับ ไม่มีผลกับการใช้งานหลักใดๆ พอดีเป็นของเล่นสนุกของชาวบิทคอยน์ ที่เอาไว้ส่งเงินให้กันเฉยๆครับ ไม่มีก็ใช้งานทุ่งม่วงได้ปกติ แค่ว่ากระเป๋าบิทคอยน์ เป็นส่วนนึงของทุ่งม่วงด้วยแค่นั้นเองครับ ***

สำหรับ iOS เราเริ่มจากแอพชื่อ Damus ได้ครับ ใช้ง่ายๆเหมือนเฟสบุค ลองกดลิงค์นี้เพื่อดูรายละเอียดแบบมีรูปภาพได้จากเพื่อนเรา ซึ่งใช้ชื่อว่า jpetch ในทุ่งม่วง
https://yakihonne.com/article/jpetch@siamstr.com/IKZbmrDmbI1MBYOe_qwBR หรืออีกที่นึงคือ คุณหลาม แห่ง RightShift ศูนย์รวมพลังหนุ่มในทุ่งม่วงครับ https://rightshift.to/2023/kp/13895/

สำหรับ แอนดรอย เราเริ่มจากแอพชื่อ  Amethyst ก็ใช้ได้สะดวกสวยงามเช่นกัน เป็นแอพที่ทำงานคล้าย เฟสบุค เช่นเดียวกับแอพ Damus ของฝั่ง iOS ลองกด ลิงค์นี้ เพื่อดูรายละเอียดแบบมีรูปภาพได้ผมเขียนให้แบบง่ายสุดๆละ https://yakihonne.com/article/heretong@siamstr.com/XZpg3iVHNQnu8-KbsomlS

ทีนี้คุณก็ได้เข้าสู่ทุ่งม่วงแล้วครับ จำของ 3 อย่างที่เราเตรียมพร้อมกันก่อนจะลงทุ่งม่วงได้ใช่ไหมครับ 1.กุญแจคู่ รู้ตัวตน 2.แอพไหน ไฟแรงเวอร์ 3. แฮชแทคจ๋า พี่มาแล้ว เราได้ทำไป 2 อย่างแรกแล้วนะครับ นั่นคือ ติดตั้งแอพ + กุญแจคู่

ทีนี้เราก็จะเหลือข้อที่ 3 นั่นคือ แฮชแทคจ๋า พี่มาแล้ว เราก็ลองโพสโน้ตแรกในทุ่งม่วงกันเลยครับ เอาอย่างนี้ไหม เพื่อที่ผมจะได้ทราบด้วย และให้คนที่อยู่ในทุ่งม่วงก่อนหน้าเราตกใจเล่น เรามาโพสประโยคนี้กัน

"สวัสดีทุ่งม่วง เฮียโต้งสั่งลุย #siamstr #เฮียสั่งลุย"

ผมจะไปรอรับคุณที่ทุ่งม่วงนะครับ ลองเล่นกันแบบนี้ไปก่อน ตอนหน้าจะมาคุยเรื่อง รีเลย์ ครับ

Table Of Content

• The Initial Impact of COVID-19 on Bitcoin

• Bitcoin's Recovery During the Pandemic

• The Rise of Bitcoin During the Pandemic

• The Future of Bitcoin Post-Pandemic

Conclusion

• FAQ

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts on every aspect of our lives, including the world of finance. The cryptocurrency market, which had been on a steady rise before the pandemic hit, was not immune to the effects of the global health crisis.

The pandemic's impact on the global economy and financial markets was significant, with many countries' economies coming to a standstill as lockdowns were imposed. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market has been resilient, with many investors turning to digital currencies as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty.

The Initial Impact of COVID-19 on Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, experienced a significant drop in value in the early days of the pandemic, losing over 50% of its value in just one day. This was due to panic selling by investors who were unsure of what the future held, as well as the global economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

Bitcoin's Recovery During the Pandemic

Despite the initial shock, Bitcoin made a remarkable recovery as the pandemic progressed. The cryptocurrency's decentralized nature and the fact that it is not controlled by any government or central authority made it an attractive investment option for many. Additionally, the massive stimulus packages introduced by governments around the world led to concerns about inflation, which further fueled interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

The Rise of Bitcoin During the Pandemic

Bitcoin's recovery during the pandemic was nothing short of extraordinary. The cryptocurrency's price reached new highs in 2020 and continued to rise in 2021, reaching an all-time high of over $60,000 per Bitcoin. This surge in value was due to a combination of factors, including increased institutional investment in the cryptocurrency, greater mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin, and a growing interest in digital currencies among retail investors.

The Future of Bitcoin Post-Pandemic

As we emerge from the pandemic, the future of Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market looks bright. With more institutional investors entering the market and greater mainstream acceptance of digital currencies, Bitcoin is likely to continue to rise in value. Additionally, the pandemic has accelerated the shift towards a cashless society, which will only further drive interest in digital currencies like Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. While the cryptocurrency initially experienced a drop in value, it quickly recovered and went on to reach new highs during the pandemic. As we move forward, it is clear that digital currencies like Bitcoin are here to stay, and they will continue to play an increasingly important role in the global economy.

FAQ

Is Bitcoin a safe investment during times of economic uncertainty? Like any investment, Bitcoin comes with risks, and its value can be volatile. However, many investors see it as a good hedge against inflation and a potential alternative to traditional currencies during times of economic uncertainty.

Can the pandemic accelerate the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Yes, the pandemic has accelerated the shift towards a cashless society, which has increased interest in digital currencies like Bitcoin. As more people become comfortable with using digital currencies, adoption is likely to increase.

How did the pandemic impact Bitcoin mining? The pandemic had a mixed impact on Bitcoin mining. While it led to a drop in the hash rate (the computational power used to mine Bitcoin), it also led to a decrease in energy consumption as miners became more efficient.

Did the pandemic lead to an increase in Bitcoin scams? Yes, the pandemic led to an increase in Bitcoin scams, as scammers took advantage of people's fear and uncertainty to trick them into investing in fake Bitcoin schemes.

That's all for today

If you want more, be sure to follow us on:

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

I have made a bytebeat editor and player using Websim AI that shows details about the currently used bytebeat code. It also generates a CD cover image and you can even download a 3 minute MP3.

https://websim.ai/c/rBhMUGcLetAtxfn1h

Btw, you can find all my public Websim AI bookmarks here:

https://websim.ai/@wholewish91244492

หมอบ่นfiat ep 35:

การดูแลสุขภาพช่องปาก

Topic

1. Biofilm
2. แปรงสีฟัน
3. ยาสีฟัน & น้ำยาบ้วนปาก
4. ไหมขัดฟัน

1. Biofilm สิ่งที่ควรรู้ 1.1 ช่องปากเราชื้นตลอด 24 ชั่วโมง 1.2 การแปรงฟันจนเอี๊ยด คือ ผิด 1.3 Biofilm ไม่ได้ทำให้เกิดโรคในช่องปาก/ฟันผุ เนื่องจาก Biofilm คือ เมือกที่เคลือบทั้งหมดในช่องปาก 1.4 สิ่งที่อยู่ใน Biofilm คือ สิ่งที่ทำให้เกิดปัญหาช่องปากตัวจริง

Biofilm เกิดจากสิ่งที่กินเข้าไปในร่างกาย กิน Healthy = Biofilm + (ไม่มีกลิ่นปากและฟันไม่ผุ) กิน อาหารแปรรูป/SAD = Biofilm - (เกิดกลิ่นปากและฟันผุ)

2. แปรงสีฟัน การแปรงฟัน คือ การเอาสิ่งที่แปะอยู่ที่หน้าฟันออก หากเราแปรงไม่ครบทั่วทุกพื้นที่ในช่องปาก Biofilm ที่ขอบเหงือกและกระพุ้งแก้มจะกลับมาที่หน้าฟันหลังการแปรงฟัน

คนที่ทาน SAD ต้องแปรงฟันทุกวัน เพราะมีลักษณะเหนียวติดหน้าฟัน คนที่ทาน Natural/Raw food ไม่ต้องแปรงฟันทุกวัน อาจจะ 2-3 วันครั้ง

แปรงสีฟันไฟฟ้า เหมาะกับคนพิการและคนขี้เกียจ

กฎ - ใช้แปรงขนอ่อน - ไม่แปรงแรง ระวังเหงือกร่น คอฟันสึก - ยาสีฟันที่ไม่มีผงขัดฟัน (Biofilm หลุดง่ายมาก) - แปรงยังไงก็ได้ให้ทั่วทั้งช่องปาก

แปรงเปียก vs. แปรงแห้ง การแปรงแห้งมีโอกาสที่เราจะกลืน Fluoride เข้าสู่ร่างกายมากกว่าการแปรงเปียก Fluoride = ห้ามกลืนและรับประทาน เนื่องจากเกิด toxic ต่อร่างกาย

3. ยาสีฟัน และ น้ำยาบ้วนปาก จากงานวิจัย Listerine cool mint พบว่าทำให้เสี่ยงเป็นมะเร็งและสุขภาพช่องปากแย่ลง

ส่วนประกอบ ของน้ำยาบ้วนปาก น้ำ Alcohol (ฆ่าเชื้อ) น้ำมันหอมระเหย (ฆ่าเชื้อ) สารให้ความหวาน > เชื้อโตเร็ว > เสียสมดุล สารกันบูด (ฆ่าเชื้อ) Fluoride (ฆ่าเชื้อ)

เมื่อสมดุลในช่องปากเสีย > สมดุลลำไส้เสีย > Leaking gut การ claim ว่าฆ่าเชื้อ 99.99% = เชื้อตายเกลี้ยง เกิดความผิดปกติในช่องปาก และ Biofilm เป็น -

4. ไหมขัดฟัน ใช้เมื่อมีเศษอาหารติดซอกฟันเท่านั้น Single tuft brush เป็นสิ่งเดียวที่หมอแนะนำให้ใช้

การดูแลสุขภาพช่องปาก

• ปรับโภชนาการ กิน Raw/Natural food
• แปรงฟันวันละครั้ง หรือ 2-3 วันครั้ง หากกิน SAD ต้องแปรงทุกวัน
• No need mouthwash

สุขภาพช่องปาก เริ่มต้นที่การกิน ไม่เกี่ยวกับการมี/ไม่มี Biofilm

SAD = standard american diet

Don’t trust, verify !

siamstr

Like many of you I have been expecting Biden to announce he wasn't gonna accept the nomination for weeks now. Ever since the debate when the media turned on a dime calling for him to step aside.

It was like this was the first time they saw what anyone paying attention could see. Anyone that uses their mind doesn't buy this act. The media and democrat leadership have known how bad Biden is for a long time. I really suspect that the debate was scheduled so early to give them time to switch horses if they had to do it.

The public has been gaslit for some time by these people in media and politics. They claim that its just Trump supporters doctoring videos and making "cheap-fakes" to make Biden look bad. Its absurd. If you are a democrat you should realize at this point these people are liars. They are not your friends. They are using you. Yes, so is the other side but your team is deceiving you.

So, on Sunday "Biden" announces he is not gonna accept the nomination. But he doesn't do so on camera or even with the traditional official letter head used by his admin. This could be because he is sick with Covid, or it could be that he didn't even put this out. Either way, there are powerful people pushing him out. Democracy is being threatened! By Trump?

Now that he has "agreed" to not run will these same people push him out of office? My guess is that yes. They will try. Here's the pitch to Joe.

Joe, you can go down in history as the man who humbly stepped down to allow a more capable woman do the job. I know, please stop laughing. I said this is how they could pitch it. It will be a historic event and people will forget all about your debate and failures. It will be your legacy. These sociopaths are obsessed with legacy.

In reality the question is. If it is best for the country for him to not run for re-election now. Why should he even remain in power? Step down. It takes that question away from Trump and his team. I suspect a deal is in the works with the party and Harris now. The Biden family isn't dumb, even if Biden is slipping. They will be getting something out of all of this.

Regardless, this is a historic time and I for one am enjoying watching the train wreck. I just hope it red pills more people. So much of the government of this nation is a sham. Its a big con job on the public. Politics is dirtier and more profane than Trump. Trump is profane. Don't get me wrong. He just doesn't put on the civil political act like everyone else. That's the real reason they hate him so much.

For those of us that see this for what it is, its kinda beautiful. We are getting a peak at how it really works. No pretense. Just naked lust for power at any cost. The truth exposed.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/618603

I haven't watched the questioning of the Secret Service Director that was broadcast today. I have heard some of the highlights, or maybe I should say lowlights.

We will probably never know what really happened. We will probably never get to the bottom of things. Right now many are doing their best to figure it out. The fact we have cameras connected to the Internet in our pockets means we know far more about this event than we ever knew about previous ones.

All that said, these investigations should be interesting. Now, we should all know by now that these investigations are usually little more than opportunities for politicians to get sound bytes they can use to bolster their standing with voters. But it will be entertaining at least.

The agencies like the Secret Service, FBI, and Homeland Security will be trying to shift blame around. They will be protecting themselves. If you are hoping that government will investigate itself and "fix" this I have some ocean front property to sell you in Nashville this week. I only accept bitcoin btw.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/618578

```js import React, { useState, useEffect } from "react"; import axios from "axios"; import { InputText } from "primereact/inputtext"; import { InputNumber } from "primereact/inputnumber"; import { InputSwitch } from "primereact/inputswitch"; import { Button } from "primereact/button"; import { Dropdown } from "primereact/dropdown"; import { v4 as uuidv4, v4 } from 'uuid'; import { useLocalStorageWithEffect } from "@/hooks/useLocalStorage"; import { useNostr } from "@/hooks/useNostr"; import { useRouter } from "next/router"; import { useToast } from "@/hooks/useToast"; import { nip19 } from "nostr-tools" import { parseEvent } from "@/utils/nostr"; import ContentDropdownItem from "@/components/content/dropdowns/ContentDropdownItem"; import 'primeicons/primeicons.css';

const CourseForm = () => { const [title, setTitle] = useState(''); const [summary, setSummary] = useState(''); const [checked, setChecked] = useState(false); const [price, setPrice] = useState(0); const [coverImage, setCoverImage] = useState(''); const [lessons, setLessons] = useState([{ id: uuidv4(), title: 'Select a lesson' }]); const [selectedLessons, setSelectedLessons] = useState([]); const [topics, setTopics] = useState(['']); const [user, setUser] = useLocalStorageWithEffect('user', {}); const [drafts, setDrafts] = useState([]); const [resources, setResources] = useState([]); const [workshops, setWorkshops] = useState([]); const { fetchResources, fetchWorkshops, publish, fetchSingleEvent } = useNostr(); const [pubkey, setPubkey] = useState('');

const router = useRouter();
const { showToast } = useToast();

const fetchAllContent = async () => {
    try {
        // Fetch drafts from the database
        const draftsResponse = await axios.get(`/api/drafts/all/${user.id}`);
        const drafts = draftsResponse.data;

        // Fetch resources and workshops from Nostr
        const resources = await fetchResources();
        const workshops = await fetchWorkshops();

        if (drafts.length > 0) {
            setDrafts(drafts);
        }
        if (resources.length > 0) {
            console.log('resources:', resources);
            setResources(resources);
        }
        if (workshops.length > 0) {
            setWorkshops(workshops);
        }
    } catch (err) {
        console.error(err);
        // Handle error
    }
};

useEffect(() => {
    if (user && user.id) {
        fetchAllContent();
    }
}, [user]);

/**

• Course Creation Flow:
• 1. Generate a new course ID
• 1. Process each lesson:
• • If unpublished: create event, publish to Nostr, save to DB, delete draft
• • If published: use existing data
• 1. Create and publish course event to Nostr
• 1. Save course to database
• 1. Show success message and redirect to course page */

  const handleSubmit = async (e) => { e.preventDefault();

  const newCourseId = uuidv4();
  const processedLessons = [];
  
  try {
      // Step 1: Process lessons
      console.log('selectedLessons:', selectedLessons);
      for (const lesson of selectedLessons) {
          let noteId = lesson.noteId;
  
          if (!lesson.published_at) {
              // Publish unpublished lesson
              const event = createLessonEvent(lesson);
              const signedEvent = await window.nostr.signEvent(event);
              const published = await publish(signedEvent);
  
              if (!published) {
                  throw new Error(`Failed to publish lesson: ${lesson.title}`);
              }
  
              noteId = signedEvent.id;
  
              // Save to db and delete draft
              await Promise.all([
                  axios.post('/api/resources', {
                      id: lesson.id,
                      noteId: noteId,
                      userId: user.id,
                      price: lesson.price || 0,
                  }),
                  axios.delete(`/api/drafts/${lesson.id}`)
              ]);
  
          }
  
          processedLessons.push({ id: lesson?.d || lesson.id });
      }
  
      // Step 2: Create and publish course
      const courseEvent = createCourseEvent(newCourseId, title, summary, coverImage, selectedLessons);
      const signedCourseEvent = await window.nostr.signEvent(courseEvent);
      const published = await publish(signedCourseEvent);
  
      if (!published) {
          throw new Error('Failed to publish course');
      }
  
      // Step 3: Save course to db
      console.log('processedLessons:', processedLessons);
      await axios.post('/api/courses', {
          id: newCourseId,
          resources: {
              connect: processedLessons.map(lesson => ({ id: lesson?.id }))
          },
          noteId: signedCourseEvent.id,
          user: {
              connect: { id: user.id }
          },
          price: price || 0
      });
  
      // Step 4: Show success message and redirect
      showToast('success', 'Course created successfully');
      router.push(`/course/${signedCourseEvent.id}`);
  
  } catch (error) {
      console.error('Error creating course:', error);
      showToast('error', error.message || 'Failed to create course. Please try again.');
  }
  

  };

  const createLessonEvent = (lesson) => ({ kind: lesson.price ? 30402 : 30023, content: lesson.content, created_at: Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000), tags: [ ['d', lesson.id], ['title', lesson.title], ['summary', lesson.summary], ['image', lesson.image], ...lesson.topics.map(topic => ['t', topic]), ['published_at', Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000).toString()], ...(lesson.price ? [ ['price', lesson.price], ['location', https://plebdevs.com/${lesson.topics[1]}/${lesson.id}] ] : []) ] });

  const createCourseEvent = (courseId, title, summary, coverImage, lessons) => ({ kind: 30004, created_at: Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000), content: "", tags: [ ['d', courseId], ['name', title], ['picture', coverImage], ['image', coverImage], ['description', summary], ['l', "Education"], ...lessons.map((lesson) => ['a', ${lesson.kind}:${lesson.pubkey}:${lesson.d}]), ], });

  const handleLessonChange = (e, index) => { const selectedLessonId = e.value; const selectedLesson = getContentOptions(index).flatMap(group => group.items).find(lesson => lesson.value === selectedLessonId);

  const updatedLessons = lessons.map((lesson, i) =>
      i === index ? { ...lesson, id: selectedLessonId, title: selectedLesson.label.props.content.title } : lesson
  );
  setLessons(updatedLessons);
  

  };

  const handleLessonSelect = (content) => { setSelectedLessons([...selectedLessons, content]); addLesson(); };

  const addLesson = () => { setLessons([...lessons, { id: uuidv4(), title: 'Select a lesson' }]); };

  const removeLesson = (index) => { const updatedLessons = lessons.filter((, i) => i !== index); const updatedSelectedLessons = selectedLessons.filter((, i) => i !== index);

  if (updatedLessons.length === 0) {
      updatedLessons.push({ id: uuidv4(), title: 'Select a lesson' });
  }
  
  setLessons(updatedLessons);
  setSelectedLessons(updatedSelectedLessons);
  

  };

  const addTopic = () => { setTopics([...topics, '']); };

  const removeTopic = (index) => { const updatedTopics = topics.filter((_, i) => i !== index); setTopics(updatedTopics); };

  const handleTopicChange = (index, value) => { const updatedTopics = topics.map((topic, i) => i === index ? value : topic); setTopics(updatedTopics); };

  const getContentOptions = (index) => { const draftOptions = drafts.map(draft => ({ label: handleLessonSelect(content, index)} selected={lessons[index] && lessons[index].id === draft.id} />, value: draft.id }));

  const resourceOptions = resources.map(resource => {
      const { id, kind, pubkey, content, title, summary, image, published_at, d, topics } = parseEvent(resource);
      return {
          label: <ContentDropdownItem content={{ id, kind, pubkey, content, title, summary, image, published_at, d, topics }} onSelect={(content) => handleLessonSelect(content, index)} selected={lessons[index] && lessons[index].id === id} />,
          value: id
      };
  });
  
  const workshopOptions = workshops.map(workshop => {
      const { id, kind, pubkey, content, title, summary, image, published_at, d, topics } = parseEvent(workshop);
      return {
          label: <ContentDropdownItem content={{ id, kind, pubkey, content, title, summary, image, published_at, d, topics }} onSelect={(content) => handleLessonSelect(content, index)} selected={lessons[index] && lessons[index].id === id} />,
          value: id
      };
  });
  
  return [
      {
          label: 'Drafts',
          items: draftOptions
      },
      {
          label: 'Resources',
          items: resourceOptions
      },
      {
          label: 'Workshops',
          items: workshopOptions
      }
  ];
  

  };

  const lessonOptions = getContentOptions();

  return (

  setTitle(e.target.value)} placeholder="Title" />

  setSummary(e.target.value)} placeholder="Summary" />

  setCoverImage(e.target.value)} placeholder="Cover Image URL" />

  Paid Course

  setChecked(e.value)} /> {checked && (

  setPrice(e.value)} placeholder="Price (sats)" />

  )}

  {selectedLessons.map((lesson, index) => (

  removeLesson(index)} />

  ))} {lessons.map((lesson, index) => (

  handleLessonChange(e, index)} placeholder="Select a Lesson" itemTemplate={(option) => option.label} optionLabel="label" optionGroupLabel="label" optionGroupChildren="items" />

  ))}

  {topics.map((topic, index) => (

  handleTopicChange(index, e.target.value)} placeholder={Topic #${index + 1}} className="w-full" /> {index > 0 && ( removeTopic(index)} /> )}

  ))}
  ); }

export default CourseForm; ```

```js import React, { useRef } from 'react'; import { OverlayPanel } from 'primereact/overlaypanel'; import ZapForm from './ZapForm'; import { ProgressSpinner } from 'primereact/progressspinner';

const ZapDisplay = ({ zapAmount, event }) => { const op = useRef(null); return ( <>

op.current.toggle(e)}>

            {zapAmount || zapAmount === 0 ? zapAmount : <ProgressSpinner />}
        </p>
        <OverlayPanel className='w-[40%] h-[40%]' ref={op}>
            <ZapForm event={event} />
        </OverlayPanel>
    
)

}

export default ZapDisplay; ```

Co se nomádská rodina již 3 roky utíkající před kontrolou naučila o kontrole samotné? Co je to vlastně svoboda? Může koexistovat se strachem? S konfliktem? Zkusme na chvíli zapomenout na daně, policii a stát a pohlédnout na svobodu i mimo hranice společenských ideologií. Zkusme namísto hledání dalších odpovědí zjistit, zda se ještě někde neukrývají nové otázky. Možná to bude trochu ezo.

Karel provozuje již přes 3 roky se svou ženou, dvěmi dětmi a jedním psem minimalistický život v obytné dodávce. Na cestách spolu začali tvořit youtubový kanál "Karel od Martiny" o svobodě, nomádství, anarchii, rodičovství, drogách a dalších normálních věcech.

Nájdete ho aj na nostr.

Changed this territory name to Import_Export today, as postings are for actual Importers, Exporters, Traders, Wholesalers, that might someday in a few years, might run into one of these posts on specifics for this or other merchandise.

Beach Sarongs, Full Size, seven prints in stock minimum of 800 pieces per print in stock. Individually packed in clear resealable plastic bags, 12 per master pack. https://globalmerchant.io/collections/sarongs

MOQ: 72 pieces can be assorted with other goods. C.I.F. (Cost, Insurance, Freight) D.A.P. (Delivered at Place) Duty paid by Consignee. Shipped via DHL or FedEx, UPS International Economy Air ================================ Unit Price Each in SATS = 6,575
Unit Price Each in USD = $ 4.44 Unit Price Each in Thai Baht = 161 ================================ Country of Origin: India. Material: 100% Terivoile (Polyester). ================================ T/T, CC, BTC On Chain, Lightning, If your coming in person to Waikiki, we can discuss alternate terms.

LINE @globalmerchant

Ask for Rich

Agents wanted especially in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket, Da Nang, Hanoi.

Website: globalmerchant.io

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/618381

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/716290

Meta-analytically, women are strongly biased in favor of female candidates for election, whereas men are slightly biased in favor of... female candidates.

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/618382

```js import React, { createContext, useContext, useRef } from 'react'; import { Toast } from 'primereact/toast';

const ToastContext = createContext();

export const useToast = () => useContext(ToastContext);

export const ToastProvider = ({ children }) => { const toast = useRef(null);

const showToast = (severity, summary, detail) => {
    toast.current.show({ severity, summary, detail });
};

return (
    <ToastContext.Provider value={{ showToast }}>
        <Toast ref={toast} />
        {children}
    </ToastContext.Provider>
);

}; ```

Growing up in Japan, we always had a rice cooker at home and didn't know any family that didn't have one. When I left my house for college I bought one.

When I moved to the US, I naturally thought, I must have a rice cooker and bought a cheap one.

At one point, our, me and my husband's, rice cooker broke. I looked up how to cook with a pan. To my surprise, rice tasted better when cooked by a pan over the gas stove. We have been without a rice cooker since, for a good 10 years.

I recently read someone in Japan cooked rice for the first time on the stove as he couldn't use electricity because of an earthquake. He said "what the point of rice cooker, if we can cook better without it?"

Well, a rice cooker keeps the rice warm. But, it is not a really necessary device as most of us, Japanese people, believe.

The companies like panasonic and zojirushi, make a lot of money, selling rice cookers to us and many people are employed there. Maybe, this has been the point of rice cooker and the 20th century, growth, growth.

I am not saying it was all bad. Still, I prefer to live in a way that any false belief, a certain product is necessary to do something, is unveiled and make a choice based on that.