@ f96073dc:5951c7c2

Introduction

The food we consume plays an obvious yet undervalued role in not just sustaining us, but also in shaping who we become.

The phrase "You are what you eat" transcends cliché to embody a profound truth: our diet directly influences our life experience.

Debates continue about the optimal food sources for human health and longevity.

These discussions often involve emotionally charged arguments influenced by faith, traditions, economic interests, and political opinions concerning the global climate crisis and sustainability.

My goal isn’t to delve into the weeds of this emotional & political debate, but instead to strip things back and provide a birds eye view on nutrition, whilst offering alternative lenses through which we can view food.

## Understanding Food as Information

More than mere fuel, food serves as crucial information for our bodies.

This concept may sound strange, as much of our nutritional understanding has been dumbed down to ‘energy in, energy out’, or ‘calories in, calories out’.

This perspective bypasses the importance of micro nutrients—the vitamins & minerals our bodies interrelate with, or don’t.

Food information determines how our cells function and regenerate, impacting everything from energy levels to cognitive ability.

The challenge lies in deciphering what constitutes "good information."

For centuries, nature provided a simple guide.

Our ancestors thrived on a diet of organ meats, plants, seafood, fruit, muscle meats, bones, and eggs—foods naturally rich in nutrients and absent of modern chemicals.

The question remains: If our forebears thrived on these natural foods, why have we deviated so drastically?

## The Shift in Food Paradigms

The introduction of heavily processed "Frankenfoods" laden with chemicals represents a stark departure from the diets of our grandparents and great-grandparents.

They consumed what we now coin "organic" food out of necessity rather than choice.

Food is pleasure, but it’s also a tool for a healthy self.

This ratio has been disproportionally thrown out of alignment.

The modern supermarket, with its aisles dominated by hyper palatable and processed products, reflects a concerning shift in our eating habits.

On the periphery of supermarkets lie fruits, vegetables, dairy, and animal based products, many of which have been sprayed with chemicals like glyphosate, or raised under inhumane conditions.

This brings us to the troubling paradox: while some parts of the world suffer from over-consumption and associated health issues like obesity and metabolic diseases, others face malnutrition and starvation due to food scarcity. (See red line below)

*HFCS: High fructose corn syrup

Questioning Current Food Paradigms

Our current food systems are broken.

A hard truth and pill to swallow, but if you look around, people have never been this unwell and overweight.

Misleading ‘Health Star Ratings’ and a flawed food pyramid, reflect a deeper societal malaise.

These systems often promote products that are not conducive to health, with processed carbohydrate forms serving as our staple, while nutrient and caloric dense foods like meat, fish, dairy, and natural fats have been marginalised.

## Whole Foods and Balanced Nutrients

So, what’s the ideal diet?

There is no universal diet that fits everybody.

The journey to finding the right diet involves personal experimentation.

However, a diet emphasising whole foods, which humans have consumed for millennia, remains a sound choice.

Eating natural foods avoids the pitfalls of ultra-processed foods and provides a balanced array of nutrients.

Side note: historically, meat was always the prized resource.

## Beyond Pesticides

Every year, the Environmental Working Group (EWG) puts together a list of 15 foods with the lowest amounts of pesticide residues, and conversely, 12 of the most contaminated foods with pesticides.

This is known as the ‘Clean Fifteen’ and ‘Dirty Dozen’.

When financially feasible, it’s advised to consume organic and pasture raised products.

If buying organic isn’t possible, one strategy to reduce pesticides is to soak the produce in water and a teaspoon of baking soda or a splash of apple cider vinegar for a few minutes.

## Nutritional Strategies for Specific Needs

Strategies like the elimination diet can help individuals identify how specific foods affect their bodies, allowing them to make informed choices that resonate with their unique physiological needs.

Tracking macronutrients and particularly protein intake can be crucial for specific health goals like muscle growth or weight loss.

Gaining a baseline understanding of the macros in your food can be an important piece of the puzzle, but should not become an obsessive practice.

Many diets serve a purpose, and depending on your goals as well as physiology, can be leveraged for great benefit.

This broad concept has been developed into a growing area of research called Nutrigenomics, defined as the study of how different foods may interact with specific genes to modify the risk of common chronic diseases, such as heart disease, stroke, and certain cancers.

For example, a ketogenic diet can help those with neurological disorders such as epilepsy or Alzheimer's disease, intermittent fasting can facilitate weight loss, and a carnivore diet can heal chronic skin or gut issues.

## Conclusion

In an era where diet-related health issues are rampant, returning to a more natural, informed way of eating is not just beneficial; it is necessary.

The prevalence of heavily processed "Frankenfoods" deviates from the nutrient-rich diets of our ancestors, contributing to a paradox of overconsumption and malnutrition.

Challenging current food paradigms is necessary to address misleading nutritional guidelines and flawed food systems.

Empower yourself to explore food in a deeper fashion, seeking a diet that not only nourishes your body but also aligns with your lifestyle goals and fosters a sense of vitality and well-being.

Eating well is a form of a self respect, and while we get the chance to inhabit this physical form, it should be our duty to make the most of this life and embody our fullest potential.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na danas.rs

11.01.2021 / Autor: Aleksandar Milošević

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Ima više od osam godina otkako sam prvi put čuo za to nešto što se zvalo bitkoin.

Libertarijanski san: „Decentralizovana“ valuta koju ne kontroliše nijedna država; na koju nijedna centralna banka ne može da utiče; koju je zahvaljujući „blokčejn“ tehnologiji nemoguće falsifikovati i koja nudi anonimnost kakvu poznaje samo keš.

Valuta čija je ukupna količina unapred fiksirana pa joj je rast vrednosti usađen u DNK.

I to još valuta koju je moguće dobiti besplatno, ali po zasluzi, jer bitkoini nastaju tako što vaš kompjuter reši komplikovani matematički zadatak iza kojeg se „krije“ jedan od ovih magičnih novčića.

To što je čitav sistem osmislio misteriozni matematički genije poznat kao Satoši Nakamoto, koji možda postoji, a možda i ne postoji i što se ceo finansijski establišment obrušio na čitavu bitkoin-maniju kombinacijom podsmeha i represivnih pretnji, moglo je samo da ubrza moju tadašnju odluku da kupim XFX ATI RADEON HD 5870 grafičku karticu za nekih 200 evra (maksimum koji sam od skromne novinarske plate mogao sebi da oprostim) i priključim se drugoj velikoj zlatnoj groznici, nekih 150 godina nakon one originalne, kalifornijske.

Ipak, kao što se da pretpostaviti iz činjenice da danas pišem ovaj tekst umesto da na nekom tropskom ostrvu vežbam skokove u vodu, sudbina nije htela da se obogatim rudareći bitkoine.

Ispostavilo se, naime, da moja moćna grafička karta ne odgovara mojoj dosta nesposobnoj matičnoj ploči, pa sam uz pomoć najgore „cost-benefit“ analize u istoriji biznisa zaključio da je bolje da prodam grafičku sa 20 evra gubitka i zaboravim na sve, nego da zarad svoje igrarije menjam čitav kompjuter.

Ta greška koštala me je nekih 700.000 dolara.

Toliko bih, žalosno je, danas imao da sam propalu investiciju u pogrešan hardver pretvorio u novotariju zvanu kriptovaluta, po tadašnjem kursu od 10 dolara za novčić, umesto što sam „zaboravio na sve“.

Bitkoin je, ispostavilo se, postao prilično velika stvar.

S kursom od 40.000 dolara za jedan bitkoin, s međunarodnim bankama koje spekulišu ovom valutom, s nuklearnim naučnicima hapšenim jer su ruski državni superkompjuter upregli da za njih rudari bitkoin, sa novinskim izveštajima o ljudima koji idu u zemlje s jeftinom strujom da u njima instaliraju čitava skladišta puna računara za traženje bitkoina, pa čak i sa poslednjim pričama koje krive upravo bitkoin za to što je u Pakistanu pao napon struje za 200 miliona ljudi i što je 500 miliona Evropljana zamalo ostalo bez svetla, nema nikakve sumnje da je bitkoin nešto veliko.

A opet, to nešto veliko i dalje uporno ostaje – ništa.

Ma koliko neverovatna cena od 40.000 dolara delovala zavodljivo, bitkoin entuzijasti su već jednom, pre tačno dve godine, sve to već doživeli, kada je ova valuta prvi put u meteorskom usponu za samo par nedelja dostigla 20.000 dolara, da bi se onda jednako naglo i jednako neobjašnjivo survala nazad, ostavljajući mnoge sa velikom i nimalo virtuelnom rupom u džepu.

Osnovni problem bitkoina, uzrok njegove karakteristične nestabilnosti – ogromnih skokova i jednako spektakularnih padova – jeste to što niko ne zna za šta je on koristan.

Ma kako uzbudljivo delovala čitava priča o novcu koji je van kontrole vlade, koji nudi anonimnost transakcija i koji je navodno nemoguće falsifikovati, činjenica je da prosečnoj osobi ništa od toga nije potrebno.

Tačnije, bitkoin – sem u uskom krugu slučajeva – ne nudi ništa što već ne možete da dobijete sa svojom valutom, a da vam je potrebno.

Za anonimnost je većini dovoljan keš, rizik od falsifikata je dovoljno mali da je zanemarljiv, a kontrola države i nezavisnost od monetarnih vlasti su priče koje su ljudima eventualno intelektualno zanimljive, ali nikog neće naterati da u praksi krene da koristi neku virtuelnu valutu.

Zato je bitkoin ostao novac ponajviše upotrebljavan za nezakonite transakcije – otkup podataka od hakera, prodaju droge i tome slično – gde su anonimnost i elektronski transfer novca bitniji od svega.

Zašto onda raste cena bitkoinu?

Zato što svi kupuju bitkoine nadajući se da će im cena skočiti i da će zaraditi.

Kako raste tražnja tako raste cena i očekivanje se ispunjava.

Onda kad tražnja nestane, a to će se desiti kad svi koji su upravo sad čuli za bitkoin pokupuju virtuelne novčiće videvši koliki je rast cene u poslednjim danima, cena će krenuti da pada.

Jer – bitkoini nikom nisu potrebni i niko ne želi da ih zadrži. Sve što svi žele je da ih kupe, da im cena „iz nekog razloga skoči“ i da ih onda zamene za „pravi novac“.

U toj igri, koja se stalno ponavlja kako naiđe novi talas publiciteta, neko naravno mora i da izgubi.

Bitkoin neće postići stabilnost i neće uspeti da iskaže svoju „deflatornu“ prirodu u koju se svi uzdaju da im trajno podiže vrednost novčića koje poseduju, sve dok se ne bude pronašla njegova svrha kao valute.

Dok dovoljno veliki broj ljudi ne bude hteo da drži i koristi bitkoine za ono za šta je svaka valuta namenjena – za kupovinu roba i usluga.

Droga, oružje, ucene i ostale oblasti kriminalne ekonomije nisu dovoljni da bi se takva stabilnost postigla.

Glavni problem bitkoina je zato njegova praznina.

Bitkoin nije zlato našeg doba. Pre je blato.

@ 00cfe60d:2819cc65

Lets start with the money talk, at its core, a good form of money is created from two key ingredients: time and energy.

**Money = Time + Energy ** This simple idea explains why money has value. Time is something we can never get back, and energy is what powers everything we do, both mentally and physically. Together, they create value.

Why Energy is So Important Energy is what keeps life going. It’s essential for everything we use and do every day. For example:

• Food without energy to cook is raw and not very tasty.
• A car without energy doesn’t go anywhere.
• A person without energy feels tired and can’t work or play.
• Your work without energy gets nothing done.
• Football without energy means no running, no cheering, and no fun.
• A phone without energy is just a useless object.
• A house without energy is cold, dark, and uncomfortable.
• Transportation without energy means no moving buses, trains, or planes.
• The internet without energy means no websites, no games, and no communication.
• Nature without energy means plants don’t grow and animals can’t survive.

And what about money without energy? ** We often hear that “time is money” but if money is created without any time or energy, it becomes worthless. That’s why energy is so important in giving money its value.

Why Bitcoin is Different

Bitcoin is special because it follows the equation of money perfectly. It’s the best kind of money because it requires both time and energy to exist. Here’s how:

• Time: Bitcoin’s network is designed to create new bitcoins at regular intervals, so time is built into the system.

• Energy: Bitcoin is made using a process called Proof-of-Work, which uses real-world energy to produce and secure it. This ties its value to effort and cost.

Thanks to this process, Bitcoin is:

1. Scarce: There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. It can’t be copied or faked.

2. Reliable: Its value is tied to real-world energy, making it solid and trustworthy.

3. Effort-Based: No one can create bitcoins out of thin air. It takes real work.

This makes Bitcoin an honest form of money, free from manipulation or shortcuts. It connects the digital and physical worlds through energy, just like gold was in the past, requiring time and energy to extract and maintain its value.

The Problem with Regular Money (Fiat Money)

On the other hand, fiat money, the kind printed by governments, doesn’t follow the same rules. It’s made without effort, just by pressing a button. This leads to big problems:

1. Inflation: More money is printed, making the money you already have worth less.

2. Manipulation: Governments and banks can change the rules whenever they want.

3. Unfairness: People closest to the money printers benefit the most, while everyone else pays the price.

4. Fiat money breaks the rule of time and energy. It’s just a symbol, not a true store of value.

**Henry Ford’s Energy Currency Idea ** Over 100 years ago, Henry Ford had a bold idea: What if money was based on energy? He believed energy was the ultimate resource because it’s measurable and valuable to everyone.

Bitcoin brings Ford’s vision to life. Its Proof-of-Work system ties money directly to energy. Bitcoin acts as a global, incorruptible energy currency that rewards effort and aligns money with real-world value.

Why Energy-Based Money Matters

Money that’s rooted in time and energy isn’t just an idea, it’s a principle we live by every day. To truly understand the value of energy and effort, let me share a personal story.

Every single day of the week, I train. I pour my energy and effort into CrossFit, pushing my body and mind to their limits. Last year, during a competition, I achieved something I’d never done before: 12 ring muscle-ups. Before that, my maximum was just three. Through consistent training, spending my time and energy at the gym, I earned that reward. It wasn’t easy, but it was worth it.

This is Proof-of-Work in action. Just like my training required time and energy to achieve results, Bitcoin requires time and energy to exist. Its

Proof-of-Work mechanism ensures:

• It can’t be faked or inflated.
• It rewards hard work and energy, not shortcuts or manipulation.
• It restores trust by linking value to real-world effort.

In a world where fiat money can be printed without effort, Bitcoin shines as a clear and honest form of money. Like the work I put into my training, Bitcoin ties time and energy to value, creating a system that’s fair, transparent, and built to last.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na politika.rs

13.09.2021 / Autor: Aleksandar Apostolovski

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Za svet virtuelne banalnosti u koji smo umarširali potrebna je i njegova moneta. Kakav svet takvo i sredstvo plaćanja.

Ni četnički jataci nisu kao što su nekada bili. Ne skrivaju se u zemunicama, ne spremaju masnu gibanicu – prste da poližeš – ne čekaju zapadne saveznike da se iskrcaju na Jadranu. Verovatno nemaju ni brade modne linije starog američkog benda „Zi Zi Top”.

Nepoznata sajber ilegalna grupa upala je u podrum kuće čiča Draže u Ivanjici. Zaista, prvorazredna vest. Instalirali su snažne procesore i mašine za rudarenje bitkoinima i daljinskim sistemom. Ko zna odakle. Možda sa Kariba, možda iz Kosjerića, možda iz Jajca – ako su ipak partizani. Trgovali su kriptovalutama. Umalo da tako rasture uličnu rasvetu tokom „Nušićijade”, pa su čelnici opštine sproveli internu istragu, tražeći ilegalce koji vrše diverziju nad elektroenergetskim sistemom grada i festivalom satire.

Upali su u Dražin dom, sišli u podrum i zatekli sofisticiranu opremu, snažne procesore i nekakve mašine za rudarenje po internetu. Kompjuterski komandosi, naravno, nisu bili prisutni. Sada ih juri policija. Potrošili su oko 55.000 kilovat-sati struje. Verovatno se skrivaju pod stripovskim kodnim imenima, poput hakera iz Niša koji su ojadili Teksašane, pa im je doakao FBI, jer Ameri možda trpe svoje prevarante koji muzu kockare na globalnom groblju kriptovaluta, ali ne dozvoljavaju da se u međunarodnu spekulativnu igru ubace mozgovi sa južne pruge, gde je dozvoljeno da se prži paprika, pravi ajvar i sluša melanholični džez na „Nišvilu”.

Jedan od članova niške hakerske grupe je Antonije Stojiljković, koji se krio iza lažnih imena „Toni Rivas” i „Džejkob Gold”, a u slobodno vreme bio je reper poznatiji kao „Zli Toni”. Stojiljković je izručen Americi zbog računarskih prevara. Dobrovoljno se prijavio kako bi se sklonio u Ameriku.

Ti momci su nudili bitkoin upola cene i stvorili takvu virtuelnu međunarodnu mrežu lažnih kompanija, menadžera, uz organizaciju video-konferencija, da su omađijali dobar deo internet investitora iz Teksasa, te je Federalni istražni biro morao da spasava čast kauboja koje su izradile Nišlije. Njihov vođa, izvesni Kristijan Krstić, prestao je da se javlja policiji, nestao je sa suprugom i ortakom Markom Pavlovićem bez traga, iako su pod istragom, što može da poremeti i diplomatske odnose između Srbije i SAD.

Taj Kristijan, ne onaj Kristijan koji se seli iz rijalitija u rijaliti, koristio je nadimke poput „Feliksa Logana” ili „Maršala Grahama” i na internet prevarama zaradio je više desetina miliona evra. Priča nije nimalo bezazlena. Veze „Zlog Tonija” dosežu, bar po dosadašnjem toku istrage, sve do klana Belivuka.

Ali, to će rešavati sudovi i policija, mada i podaci koji su procurili otkrivaju suštinu fame bitkoin i na hiljade kriptovaluta koje može stvoriti bilo koji maher, avanturista, šaljivdžija, klinac, multimilioner, tajne službe, trgovci oružjem, narko-bosovi, plaćene ubice ili Del Bojevi koji će iduće godine postati milioneri.

Virtuelni svet ne može postojati bez virtuelnih valuta, s tim što one nisu opipljive, iza njih ne stoje centralne banke i vlade. Dakle, nemate pojma ko ih je stvorio, nemate pojma s kime trgujete i ko su brokeri.

Vidim da na „Jutjubu”, u motelu „Stari Hrast” na Koridoru 10, neki momci plaćaju prebranac i vešalice bitkoinima, preko mobilnih telefona. U kafani primaju i etereume, digitalni novčić u usponu, odmah iza bitkoina. I za to čudo je potreban digitalni novčanik... Ovde ću se zaustaviti jer je za svet banalnosti u koji smo umarširali potrebna i njegova moneta. Kakav svet takvo i sredstvo plaćanja.

Kako su kompjuterski podaci svih vrsta, od pretraživača, društvenih mreža, aplikacija, do podataka kompanija, državnih i međunarodnih organizacija, i onih ličnih, koje upravo vi posedujete, postali nezamislivo ogromna baza koju je nemoguće uskladištiti, otvorena je berza za internet magacionere koji će, rudareći na internetu, postati kandidati za potencijalne šefove skladišta. Teoretski, možete izrudariti deo arhive CIA. Preporuka – ako saznate ko je ukokao Kenedija, ćutite ko zaliveni!

(Dragan Stojanović)

Da je Alija Sirotanović kojim slučajem rudario kao specijalci iz Dražinog podruma, postao bi Bil Gejts. Alija je znao da nema ’leba bez motike, odnosno krampa. Zato je ostao Sirotanović. Ovo je novo doba. Mašina krampuje u simuliranoj stvarnosti, a virtuelni homo sapijens upravlja procesorima. Bitkoin vrti gde burgija neće! Stvar ipak nije tako idilična. Te skalamerije troše ogromne količine električne energije i strahovito zagrevaju prostorije, pa je u Dražinom podrumu bilo nešto vrelije nego u sauni. Priča se da su najveći mešetari otperjali na Island da se prirodno rashlade. Sledeće stanište im je Grenland.

Kome god je stalo do računarskog kriptovalutnog avanturizma može da formira svoj mali rudnik, gde nema zlata ni dijamanata, ali ima koina, odnosno stotog dela bitkoina. Jedan trenutno vredi 50.000 dolara. Pitam se, ovako zastareo, gde su banke i menjačnice?

Sa ono malo informatičkog znanja – valjda ću uspeti nekako imejlom da pošaljem ovaj tekst – saznao sam da vrednost bitkoina vrtoglavo skače i pada na dnevnom nivou, a kako je njegov broj ograničen na globalnom nivou, a neformalni šef Federalnih rezervi bitkoina je donedavno bio jedan od najbogatijih ljudi sveta Ilon Mask, koji je na svom tviter nalogu svakodnevno formirao grafikon rasta i pada svojim opaskama, tu već naslućujem elemente bondovskog zapleta. Harizmatični superbogataš koji leti u svemir, poseduje kompaniju električnih automobila „Tesla”, upravljao je donedavno imaginarnom berzom i valutom, ali je nedavno odustao. Možda zato emigrira u kosmos?

Stvar zaista može izmaći kontroli ili će, možda, bitkoin postati naša sudbina, a mi rudari iz sauna? Salvador je pre nekoliko dana postao prva zemlja na svetu koja je usvojila bitkoin kao zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja, uz američki dolar, s planovima korišćenja vulkanske geotermalne energije za napajanje rudarenja digitalne valute. Postavili su i bankomate. Tamošnjem narodu, kao i meni, ništa nije jasno.

Međutim, broj bitkoina je ograničen i zato pomalo podseća na zlato. Ali kod zlata ipak ponešto razumem. Recimo, ako imam zlatnu polugu i neko me napadne, mogu da je koristim u samoodbrani, a onda je sklonim u trezor banke.

Mogu da učinim i nešto drugo, jednako glupo. Da stvorim sopstvenu kriptovalutu. Nazvaću je „Ser Oliver koin”. Cijena će joj, logično, biti prava sitnica. Trebaju mi saradnici. Kruži fama da se popriličan broj klinaca, mahom dvadesetogodišnjaka, pridružio kultu bitkoina. Tokom korone izgubili su poverenje u sve, naročito u nas matore. Optužuju nas za izdaju i predviđaju propast država i zvaničnih valuta, uz uspon dvoglave aždaje – saveza bogataša i političara.

Delimično su u pravu, ali nisu ukapirali ključnu stvar. Aždaja raste, a oni rudare. Na kraju će završiti još gore nego Alija Sirotanović. Likovi im neće biti na novčanicama, a kablovima će biti priključeni za superkompjuter. Njihov novi vlasnik, s kodnim imenom „Procesor”, plaćaće ih idiot-koinima. Tražili smo, gledaćemo.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

22.12.2017 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Ovoliki uspon Bitcoina neobjašnjiv je za ekonomiste. Ne znam da li je to problem za bitcoin ili za ekonomiste, ali činjenica je da se uspeh bitcoina ne uklapa u postojeće ekonomske koncepte bar kada se radi o njemu kao valuti (blockchain kao tehnološka podloga je druga stvar). Možda su tinejdžeri koji su kupovali bitcoin 2010. i sada postali milioneri ispali pametniji od ekonomista, ali ja i dalje ne vidim odgovor bitcoina na neka standardna konceptualna pitanja. Postoji apokrifna izjava pripisana nekom profesoru ekonomije: "OK, vidim da to radi u praksi -- ali čik da vidim da li radi u teoriji?" Ovo je nešto tog tipa.

O poreklu novca, od Aristotela nasuprot Platonu pa sve do danas, postoje dve teorije. Jedna je teorija robnog novca i po njoj je novac nastao kada su neke vredne stvari počele da se češće koriste u razmeni. Plemeniti metali, naročito srebro i zlato, najpogodniji za čuvanje, oblikovanje i seckanje tako su postali novac. Kada se kasnije pojavio papirni novac on je sve do prvih decenija 20. veka bio samo hartija od vrednosti koja donosiocu daje pravo na propisanu količinu zlata.

Druga teorija je kartalizam, po kojoj neku robu novcem ne čini njena unutrašnja vrednost ili robna podloga, već država onda kada odluči da tu robu prihvata za naplatu poreza. Zbog toga je prelaz na papirni novac tokom 20. veka bio tako bezbolan i papirne valute se danas bez problema prihvataju. Današnji papirni novac nije više sertifikat koji vam daje pravo na zlato, ali vrednost ima jer u krajnjoj liniji znate da njime uvek možete platiti državi za porez ili usluge.

Bitcoin se ne uklapa ni u jednu od ovih teorija. On nema imanentnu vrednost kao robni novac, niti se može koristiti za plaćanje državi. Jedini način za bitcoin da ima neku vrednost je da ga prihvataju druge privatne strane u transakcijama. To je potpuni novitet u istoriji novca, jer se po prvi put radi o privatnom dekretnom (proklamovanom ili fiat) novcu. Postojao je privatni novac sa robnom podlogom; postoji državni dekretni novac; ali nikad privatni dekretni novac.

Najveći problem sa bitcoinom kao valutom je nestabilnost. To što njegova vrednost vrtoglavo raste nikako nije argument u prilog njemu jer nestabilnost valute isključuje mogućnost smislenog ugovaranja u njoj. Pristalice bitcoina dobro znaju da je njegova ponuda automatski ograničena i to je čest argument u odbranu bitcoina kao valute i navodno u prilog njegove stabilnosti. Ja nisam siguran da ograničenost ponude igra tako veliku ulogu.

Prvo, iako je količina bitcoina ograničena, može se napraviti neograničeno mnogo kopija bitcoina ili boljih kripto valuta. Već sada postoji na hiljade njih. Šta ograničenost ponude bitcoina uopšte znači kada ima neograničeno mnogo alternativa?

Drugo, iako je ponuda ograničena, cenu novca, kao i svega drugog, određuju ponuda i tražnja. A tražnja je kao što vidimo veoma varijabilna. Tako na jednoj strani imamo kvaziograničenost ponude a na drugoj veliku neizvesnost tražnje. To sve ukazuje na ogromnu nestabilnost.

Kod klasičnih valuta, poput evra ili dinara, ponuda je ograničena politikom centralne banke. Mnogi će reći da to nije nikakva garancija, ali zapadne valute već 30 godina nemaju nikakvu inflaciju, a u proteklih desetak godina veći problem bila je deflacija. Tražnja - želja za držanjem novca - je kod državnih valuta takođe varijabilna, ali mnogo manje jer monopolski karakter ovih valuta i naplata poreza u njima garantuju njihovu upotrebu. I kod tradicionalnih valuta ne samo da je tražnja novca relativno stabilna, već u situacijama kada tražnja novca bude nestabilna, fleksibilnost njegove ponude postaje prednost a ne mana. Na primer, tražnja za švajcarskim francima je negde oko 2009. naglo porasla. Švajcarska centralna banka je na to reagovala ogromnim povećanjem ponude, tako da je franak sačuvao bazičnu stabilnost. Jeste ojačao ali u razumnoj meri - ne desetostruko ili stostruko kao što rade kriptovalute.

Zato ne vidim kako se oscilacije bitcoina mogu zaustaviti. Jasno je da kriptovalute imaju neku korisnost u transakcijama, makar to bilo i za ilegalne aktivnosti, ali kada je ponuda neograničena a tražnja neizvesna onda nema nikakvih smernica buduće vrednosti. Ne znam koliko se to čak i može nazvati balonom jer se uopšte nemamo na šta osloniti u proceni nekakve prave vrednosti -- nema nikakvog fundamentalnog razloga ni da cena bitcoina poraste na $19,000 niti da danas padne na $12,500. Jedina vrednost koja u teoriji ima smisla je nula ili vrlo blizu nule.

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Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

06.10.2014 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Od kako je bitcoin postao popularan vodi se rasprava među zagovornicima slobodnog tržišta oko njegovo gpravog statusa: da li je to budući novac, efikasan sistem zaobilaženja državne kontrole i garant slobode pojedinca, ili pak fikcija i pomodarstvo iza koje nema ničeg stvarnog?

Teorijski centar debate je pitanje da li je bitcoin "zapravo" novac ili ne. Jedna grupa tvrdi da jeste, pozivajući se na to da je nastao hiljadama dobrovoljnih akata potrošača na tržištu i time uspostavljen kao konvencija. Ko ste vi, teoretičari iz fotelje, da u ime naroda koji prihvata bitcoin definišete šte je "pravi" novac a šta nije? Druga škola tvrdi da je to irelevantno, da je takozvana vrednost bitcoina fiktivna i naduvana, i da će uskoro pući, jer nema nikakve realne pozadine: svaki novac kroz istoriju je uvek morao da ima podlogu nećeg realnog, najčešće plemenitog metala neke vrste, novac nikad ne nastaje nečijom naredbom ili proizvoljnom odlukom.

Vrlo često se u ovom kontekstu pominje Misesova čuena "teorema regresije". Ona kaže da je novac univerzalno razmensko sredstvo koje svoju vrednost crpe iz prethodne upotrebne vrednosti materijala od kojeg je sačinjeno. Recimo, zlato i srebro imaju vrednost kao nakit i luksuzna roba koju ljudi traže iz ne-monetarnih razloga, a njihova vrednost kao novca se onda izvodi iz te prethodne evaluacije njegove ne monetarne upotrebne "vrednosti". Tehnički rečeno, tražnja za zlatom kao monetarnim dobrom izvedena je iz tražnje za zlatom kao nemonetarnim dobrom.

Problem sa bitcoinom je što na prvi pogled on nema nikakvu ne-monetarnu vrednost. Nije zasnovan ni na kakvom fizičkom materijalu ili robi, već predstavlja kompjuterski algoritam. Bitcoin je beskoristan za bilo šta drugo osim kao sredstvo plaćanja. Ako je tome tako, onda postoje samo dve mogućnosti: ili bitcoin ne može da bude novac, ili je teorija o realnoj, nemonetarnoj osnovi novca netačna.

Izgleda da ni jedno ni drugo nije slučaj. Bitcoin jeste sredstvo razmene, iako još uvek nije novac, budući da nije univerzalno prihvaćen (što ne znači da ne može ili da neće biti prihvaćen), ali bitcoin istovremeno JESTE zasnovan na nečem realnom, tj ima vrednost i mimo svoje uloge kao novca. Ta prethodna vrednost bitcoina je njegova uloga kao efikasnog sistema plaćanja. Kao što Jeffrey Tucker naglašava u svom novom tekstu, Bitcoin je 2008 uveden kao sistem plaćanja koji bi omogućio efikasni transfer resursa između pojedinaca u raznim delovima sveta uz potpuno zaobilaženje zvaničnog finansijskog sistema. Programski dokument osnivača Bitcoina nije uopšte spominjao novac nego samo sistem plaćanja koji omogućava pouzdanost, anonimonst i operisanje izvan zvaničnih finansijkih tokova. Tehnički detalji su ovde.

Bitcoin kao sistem je lansiran 9 januara 2009, ali u tom trenutku njegova vrednost je bila nula! Sve do oktobra 2009 potenicjalni klijenti su mogli da dobiju besplatno koliko god hoće bitcoina da eksperimentišu. Ljudi su vršili prve transakcije, proveravali da li je sistem pouzdan, da li radi onako kako je obećano itd. Taj proces eksperminetisanja je trajao oko deset meseci. U tom periodu Bitcoin kao novac nije imao nikakvu tržišnu vrednost. Pre tačno pet godina, 5 oktobra 2009 postavljena je prva tržišna cena. Ona je bila 1390 bitcoina za jedan američki dolar, odnosno jedan bitcoin je vredeo manje od desetog dela penija. U tom trenutku publika je bila još uvek skeptična, što se pokazalo u vrlo niskoj ceni, ali kako je vreme prolazilo cena je rasla jer je evaluacija sistema, sa protokom vremena i daljim potvrđivanjem njegove vrednosti i pouzdanosti, kao i ulaskom mnogo šireg kurga ljudi u igru, postajala sve viša. Međutim, to je sve sa teorijske tačke gledišta irelevantno; ključna stvar je da je početna evaluacija bitcoina, prva tržišna cena objavljena 5 oktobra 2009 bila zapravo izraz evaluacije sistema plaćanja koja je vršena mesecima nezavisno od samog novca (tj njegove potencijalne vrednosti). Bitcoin kao novac "regresira" u mizesovskom smislu na bitcoin kao sistem plaćanja.

Dakle, bitcoin nije fiat novac. On predstavlja potencijalnu valutu koja je izvedena iz tržišne vrednosti specifičnog sistema plaćanja koji klijentima omogućava značajne prednosti koje drugi sistemi ne pružaju. I stoga oza njega stoji "realna vrednost" u istom smislu u kome nešto "realno" stoji iza zlata i srebra kao novca, ili iza modernih fiat valuta izvedenih iz zlata i srebra. Ja ne verujem da bi bitcoin imao velike šanse protiv zlata i srebra na slobodnom tržištu valuta, ali u ovom trenutku ne postoji slobodno tržište valuta, tj onaj ko pokuša da trguje u zlatu završiće u zatvoru. U takvim okolnostima, virtuelnost bitcoina predstavlja komparativnu prednost u odnosu na svaku vrstu robnog novca uključujući i zlato: vlasnik ne poseduje nikakvu fizičku supstancu koju vlada može da mu konfiskuje. Naravno, to bi moglo da se promeni ukoliko vlade ocene da je bitcoin značajna opasnost i krene u tehnološki rat protiv njega. U tom slučaju bi i cena verovatno pala.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

15.12.2023 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Ovako sam pisao u aprilu kad je Bitcoin vredeo $50-100 dolara:

"Koja je budućnost Bitcoina? Većina mu predviđa propast, ali već smo videli da ima neprijatelje sa obeju strana i obe imaju svoje razloge. ... Ali ekonomski gledano, sada kad je Bitcoin došao dovde, meni se čini da može još mnogo rasti."

...

"Zato mislim da ekonomski Bitcoin više nema problem. Sa ovako ograničenom ponudom, a uz održanje sadašnje tražnje ili njen rast, njegove vrednost može i još mnogo da poraste."

U međuvremenu je otišao na preko $1,000. Ali mislite da sam kupio neki Bitcoin? Nisam, teško je baviti se takvim sitnicama kad morate da pišete blog.

Evo šta sada mislim o Bitcoinu.

Najvažnije je razumeti zašto Bitcoin uopšte ima vrednost. To što ima neku vrednost i nije tako iznenađujuće. Valute su istorijski spontano nastajale najčešće od nečega što ima istinsku vrednost, bronze, srebra ili zlata. Ali nije neviđeno ni da novac bez intristične vrednosti bude široko prihvaćen. Poznat je slučaj ostrva kamenog novca, gde je novac bilo kamenje, neka vrsta krečnjaka (vidi sliku ispod). Stanovnici jednog polinezijskog ostrva su koristili ovaj kamen kao novac zbog samo jedne osobine -- zato što nije postojao na ostrvu. Da biste nabavili takvo kamenje morali ste ići na drugo ostrvo, što je bilo skupo i naporno. I to je jedina osobina koja je krečnjak činila novcem, nisu ga koristili ni za šta drugo.

Štaviše, da ne bi kotrljali kamenje pri svakoj kupovini, trgovali su samo pravima na odrđeni kamen, a da se kamen uopšte nije morao pomeriti s mesta. To je suštinski isto kao današnje elektronsko bankarstvo, ali to je druga priča.

Bitcoin je nešto najbliže tome. Kad se uspostavi konvencija, onda novac ne mora imati imanentnu vrednost. Konvencija je, iz garantovanu retkost dovoljan uslov da nešto uspe kao novac. Kao i krečnjak na tom ostrvu, Bitcoin je suštinski bezvredan, ali 1) ne može se naći lako (ima retkost) i 2) postoji konvencija da se prihvata kao novac -- prihvatate ga jer znate da će ga i drugi prihvatiti.

Ali koliko je Bitcoin zaista redak? Sam Bitcoin jeste, jer mu je ponuda programski ograničena. Ali sada vidimo uspon drugih kripto valuta -- Litecoin, Peercoin, i drugi. Bitcoin je redak, ali svako može da napravi nešto jako slično bitcoinu i zvati ga drugačije. To se uveliko i dešava, za sada bez efekta na vrednost Bitcoina.

Za sada Bitcoin ima rastuću snagu konvencije, ili ekonomskim rečnikom, za njega radi efekat mreže. Efekat mreže postoji kada svaki dodatni korisnik povećava vrednost dobra -- vi koristite tastaturu sa početnim slovima QWERTY zato što svi drugi koriste istu tastaturu pa je glupo da počinjete nešto drugo; otvorili ste Facebook nalog ne zato što je Facebook tehnološki najbolje urađen nego zato što svi drugi imaju Facebook pa se tako nalkaše povezujete; nemate Google Plus jer niko drugi nema Google Plus što ga čini beskorisnim, i tako dalje. Uspostavljene mreže je jako teško srušiti, one se perpetuiraju i rastu na principu začaranog kruga.

Kad se jednom uspostave, mreže kao Facebook ili Bitcoin imaju ugrađenu prednost i teško ih je srušiti. Ali znate li ko je još imao efekat mreže u svoju korist? Imao je Windows i imao je MySpace. Windows se još drži ali nije ni blizu moći od pre desetak godina, a MySpace je potpuno propao -- a ljudi su 2008. MySpaceu predviđali večni monopol zbog efekta mreže. Poenta je, efekat mreže je prednost ali nikome ne garantuje monopol, pa čak ni opstanak.

Situacija sa Bitcoinom je ovakva. Sa pojavom drugih valuta retkost je izgubio. Nije bitno što nema Bitcoina, Bitcoin je samo ime. Ima ili može biti neograničeno mnogo kriptovaluta istog tipa i to je ono što je važno. Konvenciju odnosno efekat mreže Bitcoin još uvek ima, štaviše tu je i dalje u usponu. Ali to mu ne garantuje dugoročni uspeh. Kad se ta dva saberu, mislim da Bitcoin nema dobrih dugoročnih izgleda. Da sam onda u aprilu kupio Bitcoine, sada bih prodao.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

03.04.2013 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Posle kiparske epizode naglo je došlo do rasta njegove vrednosti. Bitcoin je virtuelna valuta koju ne kontroliše niko. Umesto toga, emitovanje Bitcoina ograničeno je komplikovanim programom. Kao i kod zlata, svako može da iskopa novčiće, ali kopanje je naporno i neizvesno -- jedina je razlika što se posao ne obavlja fizički već kompjuterski. Program je postavljen tako da količina iskopanih Bitcoina raste po stalno opadajućoj stopi, dok se na kraju, za nekih stotinak godina, asimptotski ne približi konačnom nivou.

Za bliže objašnjenje Bitcoina i više o tekućim dešavanima pročešljajte Nedeljni komentar, a meni ceo fenomen postaje vrlo interesantan iz nekoliko razloga.

Prvo, Bitcoin ima mnogo neprijatelja. Neprijatelji su pristalice državnog novca, jer je ovo privatni, decentralizovani novac, čije štampanje ne kontrolišu stručnjaci za monetarnu politiku već se obavlja po automatskom programu. Tokovi novca se teško kontrolišu i neke centralne banke su već "izrazile zabrinutost" zbog rastuće uloge ove valute.

Ali, neprijatelji su i libertarijanski ekonomisti kojima je bliži zlatni standard. U njihovu viziju se ne uklapa to što Bitcoin očigledno nema pravu materijalnu vrednost. Bitcoin je nešto kao privatni fiat novac -- dosada neviđeni fenomen. Po njima tako nešto ne može da postoji i zato mu od samog početka predviđaju propast, ali ih bar za ovih par godina njegovog postojanja stvarnost demantuje.

Dalje, nastanak i dosadašnji uspeh Bitcoina se kosi sa bilo kojom postojećom teorijom i štaviše, za njegov uspeh gotovo da uopšte nema racionalnog objašnjenja. Najveća tajna slobodne razmene, bilo da je to tržište ili drugi oblici slobodne i dobrovoljne saradnje, je to što iz neorganizovane akcije slobodnih pojedinaca može doći do ishoda kojima se ne možemo unapred nadati, koji prevazilaze našu moć imaginacije i koje čak i ex post teško možemo racionalno objasniti. (To je Hayekova najvažnija ideja, a ne njegov libertarijanizam po sebi).

Bitcoin je izgledao a i dalje većini ekonomista i medija izgleda nemoguće, jer iako je njegova ponuda ograničena programom, tražnja za njim je stvar pukog verovanja. Kod zlata i srebra, tražnja postoji jer ti metali imaju i stvarnu vrednost. Kod državnog novca, tražnja postoji jer vam država kaže da morate da koristite taj novac, ali i svojim autoritetom garantuje da će svi ostali prihvatati taj novac. Kod Bitcoina vam niko ne garantuje ništa. Kako je to počelo da se koristi, kako su ljudi, posebno oni u početku, prihvatali da prodaju stvari za Bitcoine, ili da razmenjuju svoje evre i dolare za Bitcoine, meni uopšte nije jasno. Sada je lakše, valuta je donekle uspostavljena, više je prodavaca koji je prihvataju, znate da ima dovoljno onih koji je koriste i zato ima nekih osnova za verovanje da će se to nastaviti. Ali da je tako nešto moglo da počne, da nastane ni iz čega, je gotovo neshvatljivo.

Koja je budućnost Bitcoina? Većina mu predviđa propast, ali već smo videli da ima neprijatelje sa obeju strana i obe imaju svoje razloge. Propast je pre svega moguća usled državne intervencije. Možda će tako nešto jednostavno biti zabranjeno i proganjano. Kad je američka Komisija za hartije od vrednosti mogla da ugasi jako korisnu onlajn kladionicu Intrade (čije smo kvote na razne događaje u svetu ovde često linkovali), navodno iz razloga finansijske sigurnosti, onda je vrlo moguće da i Bitcoin dođe na red.

Ali ekonomski gledano, sada kad je Bitcoin došao dovde, meni se čini da može još mnogo rasti. Tačno je da tražnja za njim počiva na cikličnom verovanju, na verovanju svakog korisnika da će svi drugi nastaviti da primaju Bitcoin, ali: prvo, već nas je jednom iznanadilo da je Bitcoin samo na osnovu tog verovanja došao od nule do današnjih preko 100$ za Bitcoin. Drugo, ne zaboravite da ni ostale valute nisu baš toliko drugačije. Tražnja za državnim novcen se, bez obzira na državne garancije, dobrim delom zasniva na istoj slobodnoj veri da će i drugi prihvatati taj novac. Zlato ima materijalnu vrednost, ali ta vrednost, za industrijsku upotrebu ili nakit, je obično dosta manja od njegove sadašnje cene. Nisu se u poslenjih nekoliko godina industrijska upotreba i atraktivnost zlatnog nakita promenili, već su se promenila očekivanja vrednosti zlata, koja takođe zavise od vaše pretpostavke da će i ostali nastaviti da kupuju i drže zlato.

Zato mislim da ekonomski Bitcoin više nema problem. Sa ovako ograničenom ponudom, a uz održanje sadašnje tražnje ili njen rast, njegove vrednost može i još mnogo da poraste. Mnogo realniji scenario raspada je panika posle najave država da će zabraniti njegovu upotrebu uz neki izgovor kao što su finansijska stabilnost ili sprečavanje pranja novca. Ali čak i ako se to dogodi ostaće fascinantno da je ovakva inicijativa uopšte uspela -- protivno zakonima slabašne ljudske logike.

@ 2f4550b0:95f20096

Leadership is rarely a smooth ride. For every moment of success, there are setbacks and challenges that test even the most seasoned leaders. The key to sustained success isn’t avoiding difficulties but rather how effectively one can navigate through them. Resilience, the ability to bounce back from adversity, is not just a personal asset; it’s a leadership imperative.

I remember an experience earlier in my career that underscored the power of resilience in leadership. I was leading a team on a high-stakes project. We had invested countless hours, fine-tuned every detail, and had finally reached the presentation phase. Then, disaster struck: the technology we relied on for the demo failed at the last minute. The team’s morale plummeted. I saw the disappointment in their faces, and I could feel the weight of their expectations on me.

At that moment, I had a choice: I could either give in to frustration and let the team spiral, or I could model resilience and lead them through the crisis. I took a deep breath and reminded myself that setbacks are temporary and often lead to growth. We brainstormed solutions on the spot, restructured our approach, and within hours had a makeshift presentation that was just as impactful as our original plan. In the end, we delivered it successfully—and I learned one of the most valuable lessons in leadership: resilience doesn’t mean avoiding failure, but rather how we respond when things don’t go as planned.

This experience taught me that resilient leadership hinges on a few essential principles:

• Maintain a Positive Outlook: As a leader, your mindset directly influences your team. When faced with setbacks, staying calm and optimistic can help anchor the group. A positive perspective allows you to focus on solutions instead of dwelling on problems.
• Adapt and Problem-Solve: Resilience is about adaptability. Things don’t always go according to plan, and being able to quickly pivot and think creatively in the face of adversity is crucial. Resilient leaders encourage their teams to embrace change, adapt, and find alternative solutions.
• Support Your Team: Leaders cannot be resilient alone. Resilience thrives in a supportive environment. Offer your team encouragement, communicate openly, and make sure they know they have your support. By fostering a culture of mutual trust, you’ll enable everyone to recover and grow stronger together.
• Learn from Setbacks: Every challenge presents an opportunity to learn. Resilient leaders view failures as stepping stones to improvement. Reflecting on what went wrong and why, allows leaders and teams to strengthen their strategies moving forward.

In leadership, setbacks are inevitable. What sets great leaders apart is their ability to bounce back. With resilience, you can navigate through challenges with confidence and lead your team toward continued success.

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

I’ve known that there are references to Jesus in the Old Testament. They just don’t use the name Jesus.

Then God said, “Let Us make man in Our image, according to Our likeness; and let them rule over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the sky and over the cattle and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” (Genesis 1:26) {emphasis mine}

Notice the references to God in the plural. These are clues to the trinitarian (3 persons in one God) nature of God.

There are also examples of theophanies (preincarnate Jesus) in the Old Testament. These theophanies are frequently referred to as “the angel of the Lord” or “the angel of God.”

But the angel of the Lord called to him from heaven and said, “Abraham, Abraham!” And he said, “Here I am.” He said, “Do not stretch out your hand against the lad, and do nothing to him; for now I know that you fear God, since you have not withheld your son, your only son, from Me.” (Genesis 22:11-12) {emphasis mine}

In this case we know that the “angel of the Lord” is not just an angel because he says, “I know that you fear God, since you have not withheld your son, your only son, from Me,” equating Himself, “Me,” with God. In most cases when an angel appears, the people drop face down in worship, but the angel corrects them and tells them not to worship. When the angel is Jesus, He accepts the worship and in many cases sacrifices as well.

The angel of the Lord appeared to him and said to him, “The Lord is with you, O valiant warrior.” Then Gideon said to him, “O my lord, if the Lord is with us, why then has all this happened to us? … So Gideon said to Him, “If now I have found favor in Your sight, then show me a sign that it is You who speak with me. Please do not depart from here, until I come back to You, and bring out my offering and lay it before You.” And He said, “I will remain until you return.”

Then Gideon went in and prepared a young goat and unleavened bread from an ephah of flour; he put the meat in a basket and the broth in a pot, and brought them out to him under the oak and presented them. The angel of God said to him, “Take the meat and the unleavened bread and lay them on this rock, and pour out the broth.” And he did so. Then the angel of the Lord put out the end of the staff that was in his hand and touched the meat and the unleavened bread; and fire sprang up from the rock and consumed the meat and the unleavened bread. Then the angel of the Lord vanished from his sight. When Gideon saw that he was the angel of the Lord, he said, “Alas, O Lord God! For now I have seen the angel of the Lord face to face.” (Judges 6:12=13a, 17-22) {emphasis mine}

As you can see, Gideon offered an offering. An offering to anyone other than God would be idolatry. Gideon offers a “a young goat and unleavened bread from an ephah of flour,” which is a proper sin offering to God. The angel did not eat the offering, but told Gideon to “Take the meat and the unleavened bread and lay them on this rock … Then the angel of the Lord put out the end of the staff that was in his hand and touched the meat and the unleavened bread; and fire sprang up from the rock and consumed the meat and the unleavened bread. Then the angel of the Lord vanished from his sight.” Gideon’s offering was taken as a burnt offering to God and to angel of the Lord, who is Jesus.

With all of this, look at the verse I read last night:

Who has ascended into heaven and descended?\ Who has gathered the wind in His fists?\ Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?\ Who has established all the ends of the earth?\ What is His name or His son’s name?\ Surely you know! (Proverbs 30:4) {emphasis mine}

Surely this is a passage about Jesus.

This verse says, “Who has ascended into heaven and descended?” The New Testament says about Jesus, “No one has ascended into heaven, but He who descended from heaven: the Son of Man.” (John 3:13)

This verse says, “Who has gathered the wind in His fists?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

And there arose a fierce gale of wind, and the waves were breaking over the boat so much that the boat was already filling up. Jesus Himself was in the stern, asleep on the cushion; and they woke Him and said to Him, “Teacher, do You not care that we are perishing?” And He got up and rebuked the wind and said to the sea, “Hush, be still.” And the wind died down and it became perfectly calm. (Mark 4:37-39) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

And in the fourth watch of the night He came to them, walking on the sea. When the disciples saw Him walking on the sea, they were terrified, and said, “It is a ghost!” And they cried out in fear. But immediately Jesus spoke to them, saying, “Take courage, it is I; do not be afraid.”

Peter said to Him, “Lord, if it is You, command me to come to You on the water.” And He said, “Come!” And Peter got out of the boat, and walked on the water and came toward Jesus. (Matthew 14:25-29) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Who has established all the ends of the earth?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. He was in the beginning with God. All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being. (John 1:1-3) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “What is His name or His son’s name?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

After being baptized, Jesus came up immediately from the water; and behold, the heavens were opened, and he saw the Spirit of God descending as a dove and lighting on Him, and behold, a voice out of the heavens said, “This is My beloved Son, in whom I am well-pleased. (Matthew 3:16-17) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Surely you know!” As New Testament believers we know the Son of God, Jesus Christ. The Bible was pointing to the Son of God long before He came to earth as a baby.

Who has ascended into heaven and descended?\ Who has gathered the wind in His fists?\ Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?\ Who has established all the ends of the earth?\ What is His name or His son’s name?\ Surely you know! (Proverbs 30:4) {emphasis mine}

It doesn’t matter how many times we have already read the Bible. Every time we read it, we can discover new insight and knowledge of God, His eternal plans, and His commands for our lives. God is good.

Trust Jesus.

@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Unit-Bias

Bitcoin hat in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung und bei Menschen, die sich weniger mit dem Thema befassen, einen sogenannten Unit-Bias, also eine durch Unwissenheit hervorgerufene Voreingenommenheit gegenüber der Einheit "Bitcoin". Das bedeutet, dass viele unerfahrene Anleger//innen und Nutzer//innen der Meinung sind, dass der Besitz eines ganzen bitcoins psychologisch wichtig oder überhaupt nur als solcher möglich ist. Anders ausgedrückt, glauben viele Menschen, sie müssen Bitcoin als Ganzes kaufen, also einen ganzen "physischen" bitcoin, statt kleinerer Bruchstücke. Das lässt den Vermögenswert für die meisten zu teuer aussehen.

Dies ist für Bitcoin insofern ein Problem, als dass viele Menschen sich durch ihre Voreingenommenheit gar nicht mit Bitcoin beschäftigen ("kann ich mir nicht leisten") oder das Gefühl haben, Bitcoin sei zu teuer und deshalb gibt es kein Wertsteigerungspotential mehr ("der Zug ist abgefahren, ich hätte vor sechs Jahren investieren sollen"). Schlimmer noch, als sich nicht mit Bitcoin zu beschäftigen, ist sich dann stattdessen alternativen, "erschwinglicheren" Kryptowährungen zuzuwenden. Dieser Unit-Bias ist allerdings nichts anderes als ein Marketing-, bzw. ein Bildungsproblem. Denn wie wir wissen kann man Bitcoin in 100 Millionen Untereinheiten brechen und in kleinsten Mengen erwerben, verschicken und verkaufen. Doch haben Außenstehende von Begriffen wie Lightning oder Sats meistens noch nie gehört.

Untereinheiten

Doch auch innerhalb der Bitcoin-Szene ist die Unterteilung von Bitcoin in Untereinheiten nicht ganz unumstritten. Denn viele Nutzer//innen sind sich uneinig darüber, was der beste Weg ist, Bitcoins Untereinheiten zu bezeichnen und sogar darzustellen. Dies zeigt sich z.B. darin, dass Apps oft entweder Bitcoin oder Fiat anzeigen, manche Apps aber auch Beträge in Sats darstellen. Dies verlangt aber oft eigene Einstellungen innerhalb der App oder viele Klicks, die die Bedienung und Darstellung eher unhandlich gestalten.

Es gibt verschiedene Lösungsansätze, die dem/der Nutzer//in die ungewohnte Rechnung mit acht Nachkommastellen erleichtern sollen. Denn viele Anwender//innen denken beim Blick in ihre Wallets oft noch in lokalen Fiat-Werten, also in ganzen Einheiten (z.B. Euro oder Dollar) und Hundertsteln (z.B. Cents).

Einige Wallets versuchen diesen Spagat komplett zu umgehen, indem sie vermeiden, Beträge in Fiat darzustellen. Doch auch hier bleibt immer noch das Problem der unhandlichen Darstellung von acht Nachkommastellen, weshalb einige Anbieter einfach zwei Eingabemöglichkeiten bieten und den Betrag in Bitcoin oder Sats automatisch umrechnen.

Doch selbst das Zeichen für Sats ist nicht final geklärt. Es gibt viele verschiedene Vorschläge und Meinungen dazu, welches Symbol genutzt werden sollte. Die meisten Apps, Rechnungen und Sticker schreiben einfach das Wort "Sats" oder "sats" aus. Allerdings ist dies ein Problem, da außerhalb der Bitcoin-Szene niemand weiß, was ein Sat ist. Die meisten Menschen werden mittlerweile von Bitcoin gehört haben, auch wenn sie nicht wissen, wie es funktioniert, was es bedeutet, oder wie man damit umgeht. Doch auch das B Logo mit den Dollarstrichen (₿) werden die meisten Menschen zuordnen können.

Sats hingegen ist ein sehr nischiger Begriff und seine Verwendung noch unbekannter. Oft wird das Blitzsymbol (3 auf der unteren Grafik) verwendet, um Lightning darzustellen und auch das Symbol mit den drei horizontalen Strichen und zwei vertikalen Punkten (4 auf der unteren Grafik), das entfernt an das Dollar-Zeichen erinnern soll ($), erfreut sich immer größerer Beliebtheit. Das Problem dabei ist nur, dass es sich in geschriebener Form nicht, oder nur unzulänglich darstellen lässt: 丰 🤡

Es war lange logisch und notwendig, ganze Bitcoins zur Aufzählung und Bezahlung zu verwenden, da bei der Einführung von Bitcoin sein Geldwert sehr gering war. Es bestand also absolut keine Notwendigkeit dazu, in kleineren Einheiten als Bitcoin zu denken. Einfaches Beispiel: letzte Woche, am 22. Mai, jährte sich der Bitcoin-Pizza-Day zum 13. Mal, also jener Tag an dem Laszlo Hanyecz für zwei Pizza 10.000 bitcoins bezahlte und damit die erste offline Transaktion mit Bitcoin tätigte. 10.000 bitcoins entsprachen zu diesem Zeitpunkt also knapp $40, oder andersrum $1 entsprach 250 bitcoins Es gab also immer noch keine Notwendigkeit, kleinere Einheiten von Bitcoin zu verwenden. Diese Notwendigkeit ergab sich erst, als der Bitcoin und der Dollar Parität erlangten (1 Bitcoin = $1) und spätestens, als Bitcoin die Marke von $100 durchbrach, wurde rechnen in Bitcoin schwieriger.

Fortan überlegte man sich, Bitcoin in kleineren Einheiten darzustellen. Die zwei Möglichkeiten sind der Bit und der Sat. Ein einzelner bitcoin kann in 1.000.000 Bits oder bis zu 100.000.000 Sats unterteilt werden, also 100 Sats = 1 Bit = 0,000001 Bitcoin.

Ein weiterer Grund, weshalb eine Stückelung in bitcoin (der Begriff für einen ganzen physischen bitcoin) schwierig und verwirrend ist, und deshalb viele nach einer alternativen Bezeichnung für Untereinheiten suchten, ist dass darüber hinaus "Bitcoin" zur Beschreibung von zwei Dingen verwendet werden kann: dem monetären Netzwerk (Bitcoin - großes B) und dem monetären Vermögenswert (bitcoin - kleines B).

Bitcoin, der Vermögenswert, ist für diejenigen, die noch nichts damit zu tun hatten, sowohl verwirrend als auch fremd. Denn wie bereits erwähnt, führt der Unit-Bias dazu, dass viele Menschen denken, dass sie es sich nicht leisten können, Bitcoin zu kaufen, oder dass sie den Anschluss verpasst haben. Die Verwendung einer Bepreisung in Bruchteilen würde die Verwirrung über die Benennung des Netzwerks und des Vermögenswerts verringern, aber auch die psychologische Hürde für den Einstieg in Bitcoin senken. Vorausgesetzt, die Benennung ist logisch und intuitiv.

Bits vs. Sats

Wie schon erwähnt, gibt es zwei gängige Untereinheiten von Bitcoin, 1 Bit (= 0,000001 Bitcoin) und 1 Sat (0,00000001 Bitcoin). Seit jeher gibt es Diskussionen darüber, welche der beiden Einheiten für den täglichen Gebrauch die vernünftigere und intuitivere ist.

Die Verwendung von Bits zur Aufzählung von Bitcoin hat einige Vorteile. Ein Bit stellt ein „Bit“ eines Bitcoins dar, also der grundlegendsten und kleinsten Informationseinheit in der Informatik. Den meisten Menschen fällt es einfacher, das Wort „Bit“ mit Bitcoin zu assoziieren und daher verstehen sie eher, dass ein Bit ein Teil eines Bitcoins ist. Ein „Sat“ bedeutet für den Durchschnittsmenschen, wie oben beschrieben, nichts.

Adam Back (CEO von Blockstream und Bitcoin-Legende) ist wahrscheinlich der bekannteste Befürworter von Bits > Sats. Er argumentiert von verschiedenen Richtungen, dass z.B. Bits eine rechnerisch einfachere Variante ist, Untereinheiten von Bitcoin darzustellen, als Sats.

Weiter argumentiert er mit der historischen Entwicklung von Bitcoin, dem Protokoll und seiner Referenz-Implementierung. In den Anfangsjahren wurde in der Bitcoin Core Wallet mit Bits gearbeitet. Außerdem argumentiert er, dass die Verbindung zwischen Bitcoin der Haupteinheit und Bits oder Sats als Untereinheit zumindest semantisch gebrochen werden sollte. Da Bitcoin (im Fall eines weiter steigenden Kurses) als Recheneinheit immer unpraktischer wird, sollte man als mentales Modell auf das Rechenpaar Bits und Sats zurückgreifen - analog zur Darstellung von Dollars und Cents oder Euros und Cents. Dabei stellen die zwei Nachkommastellen eines in Bits angegebenen Preises die Sats dar.

Ganz einfaches Beispiel: Ein Kasten Bier kostet heute etwas 20€, also 0,00079758 Bitcoin. Einfacher dargestellt: 797,58 Bits, also 797 Bits und 58 Sats. “Ein Bitcoin ist zu teuer, aber Sats sind zu viele, klingen billig und verwirrend.” Es ist schwer in Sats zu denken und selbst wenn der Preis von Bitcoin 1 M US Dollar erreicht, ist ein Bit immer noch eine greifbare und günstige Einheit: 1 Bit = 1 US Dollar.

Eines von Adams Hauptargumenten ist, dass Sat als Untereinheit nicht funktioniert, weil es Dust gibt. Das Problem mit Dust besteht darin, dass es nicht möglich ist, Bitcoin unter einem bestimmten Schwellenwert auszugeben. Sein Argument ist, dass der Nutzen einer Einheit abhanden kommt, wenn diese Einheit als kleinste Recheneinheit nicht ausgegeben werden kann. Zugegeben, niemand kann mehr etwas für einen Cent kaufen, aber zumindest ist es technisch nicht unmöglich. Allerdings ist es unmöglich, 1 oder sogar 10 Sats über das Bitcoin-Netzwerk zu senden, ohne Layer-2-Skalierungstechnologien zu verwenden.

Dust

Unter Bitcoin-Dust versteht man eine sehr kleine Menge Bitcoin, typischerweise in kleinen ein- bis zweistelligen Sats-Beträgen, doch auch kommen immer öfter dreistellige Beträge vor. Sie werden Dust oder „Staub“ genannt, weil diese Beträge so gering sind, dass sie oft als unbedeutend und unpraktisch für die Verwendung bei regulären Transaktionen angesehen werden.

Es gibt keine offizielle Definition dafür wie groß/klein ein Betrag sein muss, um als Dust zu gelten, da jede Softwareimplementierung (Client, Wallet, etc.) einen anderen Schwellenwert annehmen kann. Die Bitcoin Core Referenzimplementierung definiert Dust als jede Transaktionsausgabe, die niedriger ist als die aktuellen Transaktionsgebühren.

Dust entsteht meist unbeabsichtigt bei Bitcoin-Transaktionen. Denn wenn Bitcoin von einer Adresse an eine andere gesendet wird, fällt oft eine Transaktionsgebühr an. Um Spam zu verhindern und die Sicherheit des Netzwerks zu gewährleisten, gibt es bei Bitcoin eine Mindestgröße für jede Transaktion. Dieses Limit ist der Mindestbetrag an Bitcoin, der als Ausgabe in eine Transaktion einbezogen werden kann. Der Rest ist Dust.

Oder einfacher ausgedrückt, wenn die Mindestgröße für eine Bitcoin-On-Chain-Transaktion 500 Sats (5 Bits) beträgt und ich noch 800 Sats (8 Bits) in meiner Wallet habe, kann ich nach dem Versenden von 600 Sats (6 Bits) die übrigen 200 Sats (2 Bits) nicht mehr ausgeben. Diese verbleibenden 2 Bits sind Dust.

Dust stellt aus mehreren Gründen eine Herausforderung für das Bitcoin-Netzwerk und seine Benutzer//innen dar:

UTXO-Bloat: Bei jeder Transaktion werden nicht ausgegebene Transaktionsausgaben (UTXOs) erstellt, und Dust erhöht die Anzahl der UTXOs im System. Dies kann zu einer aufgeblähten Blockchain führen und sich negativ auf die Leistung und Skalierbarkeit des Netzwerks auswirken.

➡️ Wie UTXOs funktionieren

Wallet-Management: Im Laufe der Zeit kann sich in Wallets viel Dust ansammeln, und die Verwaltung solch kleiner Beträge kann für Benutzer//innen unpraktisch sein. Bei vielen Wallets ist ein Mindestguthaben erforderlich, und die Dust-Mengen sind möglicherweise zu gering, um diese Anforderung zu erfüllen. Viele Nutzer//innen wechseln häufig zwischen Wallets und transferirien ihre Vermögen vorher auf die neuen Wallets, bei solchen Wechseln bleiben Dust-Beträge zurück und gelten langfristig als verloren.

Ein weiteres Problem besteht darin, dass Dust nicht genau definiert werden kann. Die Transaktionsgebühren hängen wesentlich von zwei Faktoren ab: Den Gebühren in sat/vB, welche von der Auslastung des Mempools abhängen und zu Zeiten von hoher Auslastung dementsprechend hoch sind, und zum anderen vom UTXO-Set des/der jeweiligen Nutzer//in. Denn wie wir wissen, werden Transaktionen aus einer oder mehreren UTXOs zusammengesetzt, je mehr UTXOs dabei benötigt werden, um den gewünschten Betrag zu versenden, desto höher sind die Kosten für diese Transaktion, da sich das Gewicht (in vBytes) erhöht. Diese beiden Faktoren können die Gebühren in Einzelfällen so strukturieren, dass größere Mengen Dust anfallen, als in anderen Fällen.

Datenschutzbedenken: Da jede Transaktion in der Blockchain gespeichert wird, können selbst winzige Mengen Dust mit der Identität oder dem Transaktionsverlauf einer Person verknüpft werden, was die Privatsphäre gefährdet. Diese Funktion wird von Angreifern in sogenannten Dust-Attacks ausgenutzt. Denn böswillige Angreifer haben schnell erkannt, dass Nutzer//innen die winzigen Dust-Beträge, die in ihren Wallet-Adressen angezeigt werden, nicht viel Aufmerksamkeit schenken oder gar bemerken. Angreifer schicken also Kleinstbeträge an eine große Anzahl von Adressen, um dann im nächsten Schritt in einer kombinierten Analyse dieser Adressen und der Beträge, versuchen herauszufinden, welche Adressen zur gleichen Wallet gehören. Dabei ist es das Ziel, diese so identifizierbaren Adressen und Wallets schließlich den jeweiligen Eigentümer//innen zuzuordnen, um diese dann durch ausgefeilte Phishing-Angriffe oder Cyber-Erpressungen zu attackieren.

Um diese Probleme zu lösen, können Nutzer//innen Dust konsolidieren, indem sie mehrere Dust-UTXOs in einer einzigen Transaktion mit einem höheren Wert kombinieren. Einige Wallets und Dienste bieten Funktionen an, mit denen Benutzer//innen ihren Dust effektiv verwalten und konsolidieren können.

Abschließende Gedanken

Der Unit-Bias ist absolut vorhanden. Ich persönlich begegne ihm immer wieder in Gesprächen mit Bitcoin-Interessierten, die sich mit der Materie noch nicht lange auseinandergesetzt haben. Die Verwunderung ist oft sehr groß, dass bitcoins nicht als Ganzes gekauft werden müssen. Die Verwendung einer Untereinheit sowohl in Wallets, als auch bei der Bepreisung kann dabei helfen.

An die Verwendung von Sats als die kleinste Einheit von Bitcoin habe ich mich gewöhnt, allerdings tendiere ich mittlerweile persönlich zum Gebrauch von Bits. Die hervorgebrachten Argumente leuchten mir ein und ich bin überzeugt, dass Bits eine größere Akzeptanz außerhalb des Bitcoin-Inner-Circles hervorrufen können, als Sats. Darüber hinaus ist das Sats-Zeichen wirklich unpraktisch.

Ich befürworte hier einige Ideen, die das Paragrafzeichen zum Symbol für Sats erheben wollen.

🫳🎤

---

In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ ed84ce10:cccf4c2a

Hackathon Summary

The YQuantum 2024 Hackathon concluded with significant participation and numerous project submissions, establishing itself as a vibrant platform for innovation. Out of 300 registrants, the on-site participants formed teams and worked on developing 28 BUIDLs, engaging in challenges across diverse tracks sponsored by prominent quantum computing organizations, such as QuEra Computing, IBM Quantum, Classiq, DoraHacks, SandboxAQ, and Capgemini/The Hartford/Quantinuum.

Participants developed groundbreaking solutions in quantum computing, driven by prize incentives, including quantum cloud credits, internships, networking opportunities, and potential speaking engagements. The grand prizes recognized exceptional projects, with the first place receiving $2000, presentation opportunities before Yale researchers, and participation in the Yale Innovation Summit.

The hackathon successfully fostered a collaborative environment that encouraged the exploration of cutting-edge technologies and ideas, advancing the quantum computing field. YQuantum 2024 underscored the potential of quantum technologies and promoted knowledge exchange among participants and sponsors.

Hackathon Winners

Held on April 13, 2024, YQuantum's inaugural event attracted 300 participants from 10 countries, featuring six industry-sponsored challenges that culminated in a series of prestigious awards.

Institute Grand Prizes Winners

• 1st Place: Quantum Consortium: Case-Duke-Lehigh-Vandy Nexus This project employs adiabatic methods to prepare antiferromagnetic energy eigenstates, with a focus on quantum many-body scarring and enhancing error correction in computing.

• 2nd Place: Sparse Quantum State Preparation The team developed efficient algorithms using Classiq APIs for sparse quantum state preparation, optimizing execution for scalability and efficiency in managing quantum data.

• 3rd Place: QuBruin This project optimizes algorithms using dynamic quantum circuits and enhances error correction. The team improved user accessibility through Qiskit-based models for better circuit performance under noise conditions.

IBM Quantum Prize Winners

• Modified IBM Challenge
  This project delves into foundational linear algebra concepts, emphasizing core principles and mastery.

QuEra Computing Prize Winners

• 3D Quantum Scars on 2D Tweezer Arrays
  The team investigates quantum scar states on a 3D lattice projected into 2D, using Julia and QuEra's Bloqade to simulate quantum dynamics.

Classiq Technologies Prize Winners

• YQuantum2024 Classiq Team 34 Wavefunction Wizards
  Focusing on optimizing sparse quantum state preparation, this project enhances algorithmic efficiency in quantum data processing.

DoraHacks Prize Winners

• Spooner_QRNG_Classifier
  The project employs Python scripts and a gradient booster classifier to predict quantum device origins of random binary data, surpassing baseline prediction accuracy.

Capgemini // Quantinuum // The Hartford Prize Winners

• Skittlez
  This partnership addresses quantum computing challenges through interdisciplinary expertise, designing innovative quantum solutions.

• Honorable Mention: BB24 - Yale Quantum Monte Carlo The project enhances Quantum Monte Carlo techniques via novel sampling and encoding schemes, improving parallel processing and computational efficiency.

SandboxAQ Prize Winners

• QuantumQuails
  This project improves solar cell efficiency through quantum chemistry, utilizing VQE to model solar energy absorption for enhanced conversion effectiveness.

• Honorable Mention: mRNA Sequence Design via Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm This project optimizes mRNA sequence design using QAOA, enhancing protein expression and structural stability through codon and nucleotide parameters.

Explore all projects at DoraHacks.

About the Organizer:

YQuantum

YQuantum is a prominent entity within the technology and blockchain sectors, recognized for its innovative approach and strategic initiatives. Specializing in utilizing quantum computing capabilities, YQuantum is committed to advancing the technological frontier. Though specific projects are not highlighted, YQuantum's role in shaping industry standards positions it as a leader in the field. Through dedication to cutting-edge research and development, YQuantum continues to drive progress in quantum technologies, aligning with its mission to propel scientific and technological advancements globally.

@ c5fede3d:16e03f7b

Hay quien dice el famoso dicho de «año nuevo, vida nueva». En este caso, iniciamos el año con el mismo propósito, seguir aprendiendo para que no nos pille el toro. En esta ocasión, toca tratar la entrada de capital a tu wallet. Sin embargo, hay que saber donde meterse sin que las arenas movedizas te engullan. ¿Preparado para comprar la hucha del cerdito?

Esta es la segunda entrega de Semanario Crypto, una serie de artículos dedicados para aquellos que desconocen los conceptos básicos del mundo de las criptomonedas. La semana pasada hicimos un barrido sin adentrarnos en territorio comanche. Si aún no tienes claro qué es una wallet o cuál es el propósito de una frase semilla, ve al punto de partida y vuelve a leerte Semanario Crypto #1 | Un nuevo paradigma, porque es el ticket de entrada para este mundillo y no lo puedes perder.

EL LÍO DEL MONTEPÍO💱

Si has llegado hasta aquí, he de felicitarte. Has dado dos grandes pasos. El primero, tener la mente abierta y querer aprender. El segundo, disponer de una wallet y tener guardada a buen recaudo la frase semilla. Ahora es el momento de la verdad, operar, no sin antes tener claro un par de conceptos más.

¿Qué son los exchanges?

Son plataformas digitales donde los usuarios pueden comprar, vender o intercambiar criptomonedas. A través de ellas, los usuarios pueden convertir su dinero tradicional en crypto, facilitando el comercio de criptoactivos.

Los exchanges son los bancos del mundo de la criptomonedas. Ambos actúan como intermediarios en las transacciones financieras y ofrecen servicios relacionados con la inversión y el comercio. Sin embargo, no todos los exchanges son iguales, se diferencian dos tipos:

1. Exchange Centralizado (CEX)

En este tipo de exchange, una entidad centralizada gestiona las transacciones y retiene los fondos los usuarios. Los CEX custodian tu dinero, cuentan con equipos profesionales de atención al cliente y están sujetos a altas regulaciones gubernamentales. Te registras, haces la verificación de identidad (KYC) y ellos te proporcionan una wallet para que la fondees con tu dinero fiduciario y operes dentro de la plataforma. Todo un ecosistema a golpe de click.

2. Exchange Descentralizado (DEX)

Aquí las transacciones se realizan entre usuarios a través de contratos inteligentes en la blockchain (P2P), es decir, las operaciones se hacen directamente desde sus propias billeteras. No requieren que se proporcionen información personal. Los usuarios mantienen el control sobre sus activos (autocustodia) y no habrá que depositar en ellas.

Sabiendo las diferencias entre un CEX y un DEX, nuevamente nos hallamos en la tesitura de tener que definirnos a nosotros mismos. En la anterior entrega de Semanario Crypto optamos por una wallet caliente o una fría en función del tipo de inversor que somos, o incluso pudimos hacer un mix emparejando la wallet fría a una extensión de navegador. Aunque, como acabamos de ver, si te registras en un CEX ellos ya te proporcionan una billetera electrónica para que operes dentro de la plataforma. La elección es tuya, pero has de tener en cuenta cómo operar de una forma u otra conforme al capital que dispongas:

Quiero operar por un monto superior a 50k euros anuales y/o soy un buen ciudadano.

• Amigo mío, quítate de problemas, y registrate en un CEX como Binance o Bit2Me. La legislación fiscal española incide especialmente en que cualquier tenencia de criptomonedas superior a 50k euros debe ser declarada. Con los exchanges que te he puesto, la información proporcionada a la Agencia Tributaria es automática y de ella se encargan ellos, no tienes que hacer nada de nada. Solo hacer tu declaración anual habitual.
• También es la opción ideal para el vago y el que no dispone de tiempo. ¿Quieres hacer un mix que te ofrezca las bondades de los CEX y los DEX? Atento al siguiente punto y atiende a las nuevas regulaciones de cara a 2025.

Quiero operar por un monto inferior a 10k euros anuales y/o considero que los CEX son neo-usureros.

• La solución son los DEX. Como ya vimos, los exchanges descentralizados no requieren de KYC para operar, de modo que dan un mayor grado de privacidad y anonimato, puesto que jamás dispondrán de tu documentación personal. Además, estás expuesto a lo que se denomina el ecosistema de las finanzas descentralizadas (DeFi).
• El mundo DeFi busca democratizar el acceso a los servicios financieros, abriendo un abanico de nuevos mercados, oportunidades de inversión y ser el primero en conocer las innovaciones financieras. Sin lugar a dudas, es donde están los más avispados y la gente pudiente, muestra de ello es el valor de su capitalización de mercado, alcanzando más de 52 mil millones de dólares, que se dice pronto.

EL CASTILLO DE DRÁCULA, LA AEAT 🧛

El año 2025 va a ser determinante para el devenir del mundo de las criptomonedas, al menos en Europa. Es el año donde entran en vigor las nuevas regulaciones fiscales. Parece ser que el mantra de que los criptoactivos eran una estafa y que no valían nada a pasado a mejor vida a partir de la entrada del gran capital, como Blackrock. Ahora, los entes fiscales reguladores quieren su porción del pastel y apuntan a tu billetera. Si quieres operar en este mundillo, debes saber un poco de fiscalidad, para que no llamen a tu puerta. Aunque, recuerda, si optaste por ser un buen ciudadano (español, en este caso) que te registraste en un CEX como Binance o Bit2Me no tendrás mayores preocupaciones, porque allí todo lo que hagas acaba registrado automáticamente en tu declaración del año fiscal. De todas formas, siempre es bueno aprender, sobre todo si operas desde los DEX con tu billetera autocustodiada.

1. La Ley MiCa y Directiva DAC8

• Reglamento europeo que establece el marco regulatorio para las criptomonedas. Obliga a que todos los servicios financieros que emitan o comercialicen criptoactivos tengan licencia y deban proporcionar información sobre sus operaciones. Los proveedores de servicios deberán informar sobre las transacciones realizadas por residentes en Europa con fines de supervisión fiscal. Los ciudadanos europeos están obligados a declarar la tenencia de criptoactivos como parte del patrimonio personal, incluyendo ganancias, la cual estará sujeta a impuestos.
• La Directiva DAC8 complementa al reglamento y se enfoca en el intercambio automático de información fiscal entre los Estados miembro de la UE (CARF). Los proveedores de criptoactivos deberán reportarán todas las transacciones y datos relevantes a las autoridades fiscales nacionales, concretamente los movimientos y saldos del usuario. Legitima a Hacienda a poder embargar las criptomonedas depositadas en un exchange, las wallets autocustodiadas son inembargables por estar en control del usuario.

2. La Travel Rule o Regla de Viaje

• Regulación que aumenta la trazabilidad entre las transacciones de criptomonedas. Exige a los servicios de activos digitales (VASP) recojan y compartan información sobre los remitentes y beneficiarios, sea a carteras custodiadas o autocustodiadas.

3. Límites y “mandamientos”

• Cualquier transferencia superior a 1.000 euros requerirá que el proveedor recopile datos personales.
• Si el monto de operaciones alcanza los 10.000 euros anuales, el proveedor informa.
• Si el monto de operaciones alcanza los 3.000 euros en un trimestre natural, el proveedor informa.
• Las ganancias deben ser declaradas en el IRPF al final del año fiscal, incluso si las criptomonedas no se han convertido a FIAT (dinero fiduciario tradicional).
• El Modelo 721 es una obligación informativa que deben cumplir los contribuyentes que poseen criptomonedas en el extranjero (exchange que no opere bajo legislación española y no presente los modelos informativos requeridos por Hacienda) y cuyo saldo supera los 50.000 euros a fecha del 31 de diciembre.
• La CNMV supervisa el mercado de criptoactivos y el Banco de España las monedas estables (dólares digitales como USDC-USDT).

¿AÚN CON FUERZAS?

Pues sabiendo todo esto, ya es hora de que deposites tu dinero en tu billetera de criptomonedas. ¿Cómo hacerlo? Eso ya lo verás en la siguiente entrega de Semanario Crypto. En él se te ofrecerá el martillo para que rompes la hucha del cerdito y le des vida a tu wallet. Aprende las rutas de entrada y de salida. Opera con conocimiento y sabiendo lo que haces. Es más fácil de lo que piensas. Recuerda que la información es poder, y tú la vas a tener.

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Descargo de responsabilidad: Toda la información compartida forma parte de mi visión personal y no tiene como objetivo asesorar financieramente. Doy información, no consejos de inversión.

@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Ich hatte vor ein paar Wochen die Gelegenheit mich mit Micheal Hassard persönlich zu unterhalten. Mike ist Verteidiger im Fall von Roman Sterlingov. Der Fall ist haarsträubend und beängstigend. Mike und ich haben uns einige Zeit unterhalten und er hat mir einige Details aus diesem wirklich spannenden Prozess verraten. Ich wollte versuchen die Informationen in einem Artikel zusammenzufassen, um auch anderen Leuten, die mit dem Fall noch nicht betraut sind, die Möglichkeit zu geben, zu verstehen, was für absurde Methoden und ungerechte Beweismittel in diesem noch komplett neuen rechtlichen Umfeld angewendet werden.

LAX

Am 27. April 2001 landet ein Direktflug aus Moskau am Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Bei der Passkontrolle an der Immigration wird ein junger Passagier dieses Fluges von Kriminalermittlern des Internal Revenue Service (IRS) verhaftet. In seinem Gepäck befinden sich vier Reisepässe und allerhand technisches Equipment. Darunter Laptops, externe Festplatten und Bitcoin Signing Devices (Hardware Wallets). Der junge Mann wird festgenommen, seine mitgeführten Besitztümer und Pässe konfisziert, dann wird er in Untersuchungshaft gebracht. Der Vorwurf: Die Gründung und der Betrieb eines Bitcoin Mixers. Konkret wird ihm vorgeworfen, Bitcoin Fog gegründet und betrieben zu haben, darüber hinaus wird er in drei Punkten angeklagt: Geldwäsche, Betrieb eines nicht lizenzierten Geldtransfergeschäfts und Geldtransfer ohne Lizenz. Die IRS behauptet, dass über 1,2 Millionen Bitcoin, im Wert von etwa 336 M US Dollar zum Zeitpunkt der Transaktionen, über Bitcoin Fog verschickt wurden.

Bitcoin Fog

Bitcoin Fog war ein beliebter Custodial Bitcoin Mixer, der von Nutzer//innen für ihre Privatsphäre genutzt wurde. Mixer sind Services die entwickelt wurden, um das Problem der "Common-Input-Ownership-Heuristik" zu brechen. Vereinfacht ausgedrückt beschreibt dieses Problem die Annahme, dass mehrere Inputs einer Transaktion relativ sicher dem gleichen Besitzer gehören. Ich habe Bitcoin Mixer schon mal detailliert beschrieben:

https://www.genexyz.org/post/23-block-772315-bitcoin-mixing-q6i7y4/

TL;DR: Die Grundidee besteht darin, dass man einen Coin nimmt, der aus mehreren UTXOs besteht, und diesen mit Hilfe eines Dienstes einem Pool zuführt. Diese Dienste erhalten für die Vermittlung, Zusammenführung und das Stellen der Infrastruktur eine kleine Gebühr. Transaktionen werden dann so aufgebaut, dass sie es Überwachungsfirmen oder anderen Beobachtern sehr schwer machen, genau zu wissen, welcher Transaktion-Output zu welchem der Input-Steller gehört.

Bitcoin Fog wurde 2011 gegründet und ist ein Custodial Service, was bedeutet, dass Nutzer//innen ihre Bitcoin an eine Wallet des Betreibers senden, und im Gegenzug dann von Bitcoin Fog andere Bitcoin zurück erhalten, um die Spur der On-Chain-Transaktionen zu verwischen.

Roman Sterlingov

Roman war schon früh Benutzer von Bitcoin. Als er 14 Jahre alt war, zog er mit seiner Mutter von Russland nach Schweden und beschäftigte sich ab etwa 2011 mit Bitcoin. Dies ist wichtig, denn als russischer und schwedischer Staatsbürger ist Roman im Besitz von vier offiziell ausgestellten Reisepässen. Russland hat zwei Pässe, einen für das Reisen innerhalb und einen für das Reisen außerhalb Russlands. Schweden stellt auch zwei Reisepässe aus. Als der Bitcoin-Kurs stieg, wurde er Millionär. Er kündigte seinen Job und versuchte, sich selbstständig zu machen. Unter anderem gründete er ein VPN-Geschäft, das nicht erfolgreich war, und entschied sich später aufgrund der Volatilität von Bitcoin und fehlenden Einnahmen aus seinen Projekten, Pilot bei einer kommerziellen Fluggesellschaft zu werden.

Er meldete sich bei einer kalifornischen Flugschule an und 2021, als Roman nach Kalifornien zur Flugschule flog, wurde er von der Regierung am Flughafen LAX verhaftet. Er sitzt seit über zwei Jahren im Gefängnis und wartet auf seinen Prozess. Neben seinen Pässen und seinem Equipment wurden auch die seit 2011 angesammelten Bitcoin beschlagnahmt, da diese auf Konten bei u.a. Kraken lagen.

Die Anklage

Kalifornien hat Roman Sterlingov wegen des Vorwurfs verhaftet, über einen Zeitraum von 10 Jahren Bitcoin im Wert von fast 336 M US Dollar gewaschen zu haben. Ihm wird vorgeworfen, über sein Konto und seine IP-Adressen mit der Bitcoin Fog-Domain und mit Mt. Gox-Konten, die in Verbindung zu Bitcoin Fog stehen, an Bitcoin Fog beteiligt zu sein.

Vor dem Start des Dienstes nutzte der Administrator seinen echten Namen auf seinem Mt. Gox-Konto, um die Plattform einem Betatest zu unterziehen. Sein persönliches Google-Konto wurde auch zum Speichern der Schritte zur Bezahlung der Domain verwendet. Dies sind jedoch zum heutigen Zeitpunkt nur Anschuldigungen ohne konkrete Beweise. Der Fall stützt sich stark auf digitale Forensik und Blockchain-Analyse ohne Zeugenaussagen oder ähnliche konkrete Beweisstücke. Selbst wenn Roman die Domain gekauft hätte, wäre dies nicht illegal. Die Verjährungsfrist für die angeblichen Verbrechen ist ebenfalls abgelaufen. Was bleibt, sind von der Anklage angeführte "Beweise", die sich komplett auf die Blockchain-Analyse der Firma Chainalysis stützen.

Chainalysis

Chainalysis ist die wohl bekannteste Blockchain-Analyse Firma. In einem früheren Artikel habe ich schon mal beschrieben, wie diese Firmen operieren:

https://www.genexyz.org/post/19-block-765505-on-chain-analytics-mhcumo/

TL;DR: Unter On-Chain Analytics versteht man die Analyse von Daten, die auf jeder beliebigen Blockchain vorhanden sind. Diese Daten sind auf der Chain, also on-chain und somit für jedermann jederzeit und von überall abrufbar. Genauer bieten Blockchains Daten über Adressen, Transaktionen und in gewisser Weise auch über Wallets. Diese Informationen können verwertet werden, um verschiedene Sachverhalte darzustellen. Dieses Verfahren wird auch Heuristik genannt und bedient sich wahrscheinlicher Annahmen, also z.B. wiederkehrender Muster. Dabei werden sogenannte Cluster erstellt, also Verbindungen zwischen Adressen und Transaktionen gezogen.

So nutzen nutzen Analyse-Firmen wie Chainalysis Heuristiken und Wahrscheinlichkeitsanalysen, um Bitcoin-Transaktionen und Eigentümerwechsel zu verfolgen. Sie versuchen, Adressen auf der Grundlage dieser Heuristiken zu gruppieren, jedoch stimmen die Ergebnisse verschiedener Unternehmen oft nicht überein. Dies kann zu vagen Beweisen und Schuldunterstellungen führen.

„Während die Identität eines Besitzers einer Bitcoin-Adresse im Allgemeinen anonym ist (es sei denn, der Besitzer entscheidet sich dafür, die Informationen öffentlich zugänglich zu machen), können Strafverfolgungsbehörden den Besitzer einer bestimmten Bitcoin-Adresse oft durch Analyse der Blockchain identifizieren“ - Devon Beckett, Special Agent, IRS

Chainalysis betreiben einen sogenannten Reactor, der diese Analysen vornimmt. Diese Analyse dient als Grundlage für das Argument, Roman habe Geld von seinem Mt Gox-Konto abgebucht und verwendet, um die Bezahlung der DNS-Registrierung für Bitcoin Fog zu tätigen und zu verbergen. Es wird so versucht, Roman mit Aufzeichnungen im Bitcoin Talk-Forums in Verbindung zu bringen, die wiederum Bitcoin Fog mit illegalen Aktivitäten in Verbindung bringen.

Konkret wird anhand dieser Analyse eine Verbindung zu Roman und weiter zu Bitcoin Fog hergestellt, die beweisen soll, dass Zahlungen im Wert von 336 M US Dollar gewaschen wurden, die für Drogengeschäfte verwendet wurden.

Es gibt keine objektiven Standards für diese Art der Analyse und Strafverfolgungsbehörden stützen ihre Beweise auf diese privaten Ermittlungen. Im konkreten Fall vo Chainalysis spielen Beziehungen zu Strafverfolgungsbehörden wie dem britischen Serious Crimes Office und dem US-Justizministerium, sowie den damit einhergehenden Geldquellen eine entscheidende Rolle beim Aufstieg des Unternehmens zum größten Anbieter dieser Dienstleistungen mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von 8,6 Milliarden US Dollar.

Verteidigung

Roman wird in diesem Fall von der Kanzlei Ekeland Law, PLLC vertreten. Die Anwälte, Tor Ekeland und Michael Hassard sind der festen Überzeugung, dass Roman unschuldig ist und dass er in diesem Fall aufgrund fehlerhafter digitaler Forensik in Bedrängnis geraten ist.

Roman gibt zu, Bitcoin Fog aus Datenschutzgründen verwendet zu haben, um seine Bitcoin zu waschen, bevor er diese in sein Konto bei Kraken einzahlte. Das Mischen an sich ist nicht illegal, denn während der Anhörung erkannte der Richter sogar an, dass die Verwendung eines Mixers wie Bitcoin Fog nicht grundsätzlich verboten sei. Dies war sogar das erste Mal, dass ein Richter ausdrücklich erklärte, dass das Mischen von Bitcoin nicht illegal ist und dass es auch nicht illegal ist, Nutzer//in eines Mischdienstes zu sein. Es ist jedoch zu beachten, dass sich dieser Fall speziell gegen den Betreiber von Bitcoin Fog richtet und versucht, den Dienst mit Drogenmarktplätzen in Verbindung zu bringen.

Argumente für Romans Unschuld beinhalten unter anderem, dass Bitcoin Fog in der gesamten Zeit von Romans Inhaftierung aktiv geblieben ist, was darauf schließen lässt, dass die eigentlichen Betreiber immer noch auf freiem Fuß sind. Roman wurde vor seiner Verhaftung überwacht, es wurden Abhör- und Überwachungsmaßnahmen durchgeführt, jedoch keine Beweise gefunden, die ihn mit dem Betrieb von Bitcoin Fog in Verbindung bringen, selbst nachdem Server beschlagnahmt wurden.

Darüber hinaus ignoriert die Anklage auch die Tatsache, dass die DNS-Registrierung der Bitcoin Fog Domain seit Romans Verhaftung zweimal erneuert wurde. Trotzdem versucht die Anklage eine Verbindung zu Roman auf der Grundlage von IP-Adressen herzustellen, die mit anderen E-Mails verknüpft sind, die zur Registrierung der DNS und zur Erstellung eines Kontos im Bitcoin Talk Forum verwendet wurden.

Roman wird Verschwörung vorgeworfen, es wurde jedoch kein einziger Mitverschwörer genannt. Bei den von der Anklage behaupteten Transaktionen handelt es sich um Lizenzzahlungen des Mixers, die jedoch nicht durch Beweise gestützt werden. Wenn Roman ein Drahtzieher wäre, der 336 M US Dollar an Drogengeldern gewaschen hätte, würde es für ihn keinen Sinn machen, sein Geld mit seinem richtigen Namen und Passfoto auf ein KYC-Konto bei Kraken einzuzahlen.

An dieser Stelle ist es vielleicht interessant festzustellen, dass Michael Gronager, einer der Mitbegründer von Chainalysis, auch einer der Mitbegründer von Kraken war.

Mt Gox Daten

Es gibt eine Verbindung zwischen Kraken, Chainalysis und Mt Gox. Denn nicht nur war der Gründer von Kraken, Jesse Powell, als Berater für Mt. Gox bei der Lösung eines Sicherheitsproblems tätig und begann in Erwartung seines Kollapses mit der Arbeit an Kraken als Ersatz, auch Chainalysis wurde als direkte Reaktion auf den Mt. Gox-Skandal gegründet.

Chainalysis wurde in den offiziellen Ermittlungen im Insolvenzverfahren von Mt. Gox genutzt, um den Verbleib der "gestohlenen" bitcoins zu untersuchen. Allerdings gibt es Anzeichen dafür, dass die dabei verwendeten Daten falsch und unzuverlässig seien. Angebliche Transaktionsnummern und Wallet-Adressen existieren nicht, werden verwechselt oder sind schlichtweg fehlerhaft. Genau dieser Datensatz wird aber nun benutzt, um Fälle wie den von Roman zu beweisen.

Ankläger

Einer der Staatsanwälte des Falles ist jetzt leitender Rechtsberater für Chainalysis, und ein IRS-Ermittler gründete während seiner Tätigkeit für den IRS ein privates Unternehmen namens Exigent LLC. Die Pressemitteilungen und Fundraising-Runden von Chainalysis stehen eng im Zusammenhang mit dem Fall. Exigent LLC erhält in der Pressemitteilung des US-Justizministeriums die höchste Auszeichnung für Romans Verhaftung, und fünf Monate später kaufte Chainalysis Exigent LLC. Dieser Fall scheint von Karrierismus und Profitstreben getrieben zu sein.

Problem

Neben den Verbindungen der Ermittler und Ankläger mit Chainalysis und der Problematik der fehlenden Beweise, ist dieser Fall zutiefst beunruhigend und wirft Bedenken hinsichtlich des geltenden Computerrechts auf.

Die meisten Blockchain-Strafverfolgungen folgen dem gleichen Muster: Einspruchsvereinbarungen, Gerichtsverfahren oder Entlassungen. Unschuldige Menschen gehen oft auf Plädoyer-Deals ein, weil ihnen die Ressourcen fehlen, um gegen die unbegrenzten Ressourcen des Department of Justice zu kämpfen. Roman kann keinen Deal annehmen, weil er nichts weiß und lügen müsste.

Es ist beunruhigend, dass der Fall in Washington D.C. verhandelt wird, obwohl Roman keine Verbindungen zu dieser Stadt hat. Die einzige Grundlage dafür, die Gerichtsbarkeit nach D.C. zu legen, ist darin begründet, dass eine verdeckte Operation gegen Roman aus Washington D.C. geleitet wurde. Dies gibt Anlass zur Sorge, weil es Staatsanwälten ermöglicht, Angeklagte auf der Grundlage von Online-Interaktionen vor jedes Bundesgericht zu ziehen - ob US Staatsbürger oder nicht. Dies ist ein direkter Verstoß gegen die Gerichtsstandsklausel und entfernt wichtige Elemente des Strafrechtssystems, da es jede/n Nutzer//in von Bitcoin-Mixern in die gefährliche Lage versetzen kann, vor einem US-Gericht angeklagt zu werden, wenn eine auch nur dünne Beweislage gegen ihn/sie vorliegt.

Ein weiteres Problem besteht in den vorgebrachten Beweisen. Denn die Verteidigung hat bis heute keinen Einblick in den Code oder die verwendeten Datensätze, die von Chainalysis verwendet wurden, erhalten. Chainalysis beruft sich dabei auf seine proprietären Geschäftsdaten und lehnt eine Offenlegung ab. Es wird vermutet, dass die Datensätze falsch sind, insbesondere angesichts der fragwürdigen Mt. Gox-Aufzeichnungen, auf die sie sich stützen.

Die bereitgestellten Daten sind begrenzt, unvollständig und werden in komplizierten Flussdiagrammen dargestellt. Die verwendete Software, wie z.B. der Chainalysis Reactor, steht nicht für eine unabhängige Prüfung zur Verfügung. Der Mangel an Transparenz und Zugang zu dieser Software gibt Anlass zu Bedenken hinsichtlich ihrer Genauigkeit und den daraus gezogenen Schlussfolgerungen.

Es bestehen Zweifel am Zusammenhang zwischen Roman, dem Betreiber von Bitcoin Fog, und den mutmaßlichen Straftaten. Roman sitzt derzeit im Gefängnis, ihm droht eine Haftstrafe von 50 Jahren. Die Freiheit einer Person wird durch eine kommerzielle proprietäre Software gefährdet, die vor Gericht erwirken kann, dass Quellen und Datensätze nicht offengelegt werden.

Auch wirft der Fall Bedenken hinsichtlich fehlender Standards, des gewinnorientierten Charakters des forensischen Bereichs, der Weigerung, Beweise auszutauschen, und der Möglichkeit von Justizirrtümern auf, die durch fehlerhafte Software und fragwürdige Praktiken verursacht werden.

Wie geht es weiter?

Das Verteidigungsteam hat finanzielle Probleme, da alle Gelder von Roman beschlagnahmt wurden. Der Antrag auf Freigabe der Mittel wurde abgelehnt. Romans Verteidigung muss öffentliche Mittel beantragen und hofft auf Spenden. Ich habe in einem früheren Artikel schon auf die Spendenseite aufmerksam gemacht. Wer anhand der aufgelisteten Fakten das Gefühl bekommt, dass hier jemand zu Unrecht verhaftet wurde und helfen möchte, kann die Verteidigung mit einer Spende unterstützen.

https://www.torekeland.com/roman-sterlingov

https://geyser.fund/project/usvsterlingov

FREEROMAN

🫳🎤

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In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ 609899dc:13493d8d

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@ d830ee7b:4e61cd62

การเผชิญหน้า (The Collision Point)

กลางปี 2017 ที่ร้านคราฟท์เบียร์เล็ก ๆ ในย่านเกาะเกร็ด นนทบุรี อากาศร้อนจนเครื่องปรับอากาศ (ที่ยังไม่มี) ในร้านทำงานหนักแทบไหม้ "แจ๊ก กู้ดเดย์" (Jakk Goodday) นั่งลงบนเก้าอี้ไม้ที่เจ้าของร้านกันไว้ให้เป็นประจำ ราวกับเขาเป็นลูกค้าขาประจำระดับวีไอพี

กลิ่นกาแฟคั่ว ลอยผสมกับไอความร้อนจากนอกหน้าต่าง (ผิดร้านหรือเปล่า?) เกิดเป็นบรรยากาศขมติดปลายลิ้นชวนให้คนจิบแล้วอยากถอนใจ

เขาเหลือบมองออกไปนอกหน้าต่าง.. เห็นแสงแดดแผดเผาราวกับมันรู้ว่าสงคราม Blocksize กำลังคุกรุ่นขึ้นอีกครั้ง

บรรยากาศนอกหน้าต่างกับใน ฟอรัม Bitcointalk ช่างเหมือนกันจนน่าขนลุก มันร้อนแรง ไร้ความปรานี

แจ๊กเปิดแล็ปท็อป กดเข้าเว็บฟอรัม พอเสียงแจ้งเตือน “—ติ๊ง” ดังขึ้น คิ้วของเขาก็ขมวดเล็กน้อย คล้ายได้กลิ่นดินปืนกลางสนามรบ

“โรเจอร์ แวร์ (Roger Ver) ไลฟ์เดือดลั่นเวที!” “ปีเตอร์ วูเล (Pieter Wuille) โต้กลับเรื่อง SegWit!” “Hard Fork ใกล้ถึงจุดปะทะแล้ว!”

แจ๊กคลิกเข้าไปในลิงก์ของไลฟ์ทันที เหมือนมือของเขาไม่ต้องการคำสั่งจากสมอง ความคุ้นเคยกับเหตุการณ์แบบนี้บอกเขาว่า นี่ไม่ใช่ดีเบตธรรมดา แต่มันอาจเปลี่ยนอนาคตของ Bitcoin ได้จริง ๆ

เห็นแค่พาดหัวสั้น ๆ แต่ความตึงเครียดก็ชัดเจนขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ ทุกข้อความเหมือนสุมไฟใส่ใจกองหนึ่งที่พร้อมระเบิดได้ทุกเมื่อ

โทรศัพท์ของแจ๊กดังพร้อมปรากฏชื่อ แชมป์ ‘PIGROCK’ ลอยขึ้นมา เขาหยิบขึ้นมารับทันที

“ว่าไงวะแชมป์… มีอะไรด่วนหรือเปล่า?” น้ำเสียงแจ๊กฟังดูเหมือนง่วง ๆ แต่จริง ๆ เขาพร้อมจะลุกมาวิเคราะห์สถานการณ์ให้ฟังทุกเมื่อ

“พี่แจ๊ก.. ผมอ่านดีเบตเรื่อง SegWit ในฟอรัมอยู่ครับ บางคนด่าว่ามันไม่ได้แก้ปัญหาจริง ๆ บ้างก็บอกถ้าเพิ่ม Blocksize ไปเลยจะง่ายกว่า... ผมเลยสงสัยว่า Hard Fork ที่เค้าพูดถึงกันนี่คืออะไร ใครคิดอะไรก็ Fork กันได้ง่าย ๆ เลยเหรอ"

"แล้วถ้า Fork ไปหลายสาย สุดท้ายเหรียญไหนจะเป็น ‘Bitcoin ที่แท้จริง’ ล่ะพี่?”

“แล้วการ Fork มันส่งผลกับนักลงทุนยังไงครับ? คนทั่วไปอย่างผมควรถือไว้หรือขายหนีตายดีล่ะเนี่ย?”

แจ๊กยิ้มมุมปาก ชอบใจที่น้องถามจี้จุด

“เอางี้… การ Fork มันเหมือนแบ่งถนนออกเป็นสองสาย ใครชอบกติกาเก่าก็วิ่งถนนเส้นเก่า ใครอยากแก้กติกาใหม่ก็ไปถนนเส้นใหม่"

"แต่ประเด็นคือ... นี่ไม่ใช่เรื่องเล็ก ๆ เพราะมีผลต่ออัตลักษณ์ของ Bitcoin ทั้งหมดเลยนะมึง—ใครจะยอมปล่อยผ่านง่าย ๆ”

"คิดดูสิ ถ้าครั้งนี้พวกเขา Fork จริง มันอาจไม่ได้เปลี่ยนแค่เครือข่าย แต่เปลี่ยนวิธีที่คนมอง Bitcoin ไปตลอดกาลเลยนะ"

"แล้วใครมันจะอยากลงทุนในระบบที่แตกแยกซ้ำแล้วซ้ำเล่าวะ?"

“งั้นหมายความว่าตอนนี้ก็มีสองแนวใหญ่ ๆ ชัวร์ใช่ไหมครับ?” แชมป์ถามต่อ

“ฝั่ง โรเจอร์ แวร์ ที่บอกว่าต้องเพิ่ม Blocksize ให้ใหญ่จุใจ กับฝั่งทีม Core อย่าง ปีเตอร์ วูเล ที่ยืนยันต้องใช้ SegWit ทำให้บล็อกเบา ไม่กระทบการกระจายอำนาจ?”

“ใช่เลย” แจ๊กจิบกาแฟดำเข้ม ๆ ผสมน้ำผึ้งไปหนึ่งอึก

“โรเจอร์นี่เขาเชื่อว่า Bitcoin ต้องเป็นเงินสดดิจิทัลที่ใช้จ่ายไว ค่าธรรมเนียมไม่แพง ส่วนปีเตอร์กับ Bitcoin Core มองว่าการเพิ่มบล็อกเยอะ ๆ มันจะไปฆ่า Node รายย่อย คนไม่มีทุนก็รัน Node ไม่ไหว สุดท้าย Bitcoin จะกลายเป็นระบบกึ่งรวมศูนย์ ซึ่งมันผิดหลักการเดิมของ ซาโตชิ ไงล่ะ”

“ฟังแล้วก็ไม่ใช่เรื่องง่ายนะพี่… งั้นที่ผมได้ยินว่า จิฮั่น อู๋ (Jihan Wu) เจ้าของ Bitmain ที่ถือ Hashrate เกินครึ่งนี่ก็มาอยู่ฝั่งเดียวกับโรเจอร์ใช่ไหม?"

"เพราะยิ่งบล็อกใหญ่ ค่าธรรมเนียมยิ่งเพิ่ม นักขุดก็ได้กำไรสูงขึ้นใช่ป่ะ?”

“ไอ้เรื่องกำไรก็ส่วนหนึ่ง...” แจ๊กถอนหายใจ

“แต่ที่สำคัญกว่านั้นคืออำนาจต่อรอง… ตอนประชุมลับที่ฮ่องกงเมื่อปีที่แล้ว พี่เองก็ถูกชวนให้เข้าไปในฐานะคนกลาง เลยเห็นภาพน่าขนลุกอยู่หน่อย ๆ"

"จิฮั่นนั่งไขว่ห้างด้วยสีหน้ามั่นใจมาก ด้วย Hashrate ราว 60% ของโลก สั่งซ้ายหันขวาหันเหมือนเป็นแม่ทัพใหญ่ได้เลย พอโรเจอร์ก็ไฟแรงอยู่แล้ว อยากให้ Bitcoin ครองโลกด้วยวิธีของเขา สองคนนี่จับมือกันทีจะเขย่าชุมชน Bitcoin ได้ทั้งกระดาน”

"พี่รู้สึกเหมือนนั่งอยู่ในศึกชิงบัลลังก์ยุคใหม่ คนหนึ่งยึดพลังขุด คนหนึ่งยึดความศรัทธาในชื่อ Bitcoin แต่สิ่งที่พี่สงสัยในตอนนั้นคือ… พวกเขาสู้เพื่อใครกันแน่?"

แชมป์เงียบไปครู่เหมือนกำลังประมวลผล “แล้วตอนนั้นพี่คิดยังไงบ้างครับ? รู้สึกกลัวหรือว่ายังไง?”

“จะไม่กลัวได้ไง!” แจ๊กหัวเราะแห้ง ๆ แวบหนึ่งก็นึกถึงสีหน้าที่ยิ้มเยาะของทั้งคู่ตอนประกาศความพร้อมจะ Fork

“พี่อดคิดไม่ได้ว่าถ้า Core ยังไม่ยอมขยายบล็อก พวกนั้นจะลากนักขุดทั้งกองทัพแฮชเรตไปทำเครือข่ายใหม่ให้เป็น ‘Bitcoin สายใหญ่’ แล้วทิ้งเครือข่ายเดิมให้ซวนเซ"

"แค่คิดก็นึกถึงสงครามกลางเมืองในหนังประวัติศาสตร์แล้วน่ะ.. แตกเป็นสองฝ่าย สุดท้ายใครแพ้ใครชนะ ไม่มีใครทำนายได้จริง ๆ”

พูดจบ.. เขาเปิดฟอรัมดูไลฟ์ดีเบตจากงานในปี 2017 ต่อ โรเจอร์ แวร์ กำลังพูดในโทนร้อนแรง

“Bitcoin ไม่ใช่ของคนรวย! ถ้าคุณไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize คุณก็ทำให้ค่าธรรมเนียมพุ่งจนคนธรรมดาใช้ไม่ได้!”

ขณะเดียวกัน ปีเตอร์ วูเล่ ยืนอยู่ฝั่งตรงข้าม สีหน้าเยือกเย็นราวกับตั้งรับมานาน “การเพิ่มบล็อกคือการทำลายโครงสร้าง Node รายย่อยในระยะยาว แล้วมันจะยังเรียกว่ากระจายอำนาจได้หรือ?”

"ถ้าคุณอยากให้ Bitcoin เป็นของคนรวยเพียงไม่กี่คน ก็เชิญขยายบล็อกไปเถอะนะ แต่ถ้าอยากให้มันเป็นระบบที่คนทุกระดับมีส่วนร่วมจริง ๆ ..คุณต้องฟังเสียง Node รายเล็กด้วย" ปีเตอร์กล่าว

เสียงผู้คนในงานโห่ฮากันอย่างแตกเป็นสองฝ่าย บ้างก็เชียร์ความตรงไปตรงมาของโรเจอร์ บ้างก็เคารพเหตุผลเชิงเทคนิคของปีเตอร์

ข้อความจำนวนมหาศาลในฟอรัมต่างโหมกระพือไปต่าง ๆ นานา มีทั้งคำด่าหยาบคายจนแจ๊กต้องเบือนหน้า ตลอดจนการวิเคราะห์ลึก ๆ ถึงอนาคตของ Bitcoin ที่อาจไม่เหมือนเดิม

ในระหว่างนั้น.. แชมป์ส่งข้อความ Discord กลับมาอีก

“พี่ ถ้า Fork จริง ราคาจะป่วนแค่ไหน? ที่เขาว่าคนถือ BTC จะได้เหรียญใหม่ฟรี ๆ จริงไหม? ผมกลัวว่าถ้าเกิดแบ่งเครือข่ายไม่รู้กี่สาย ตลาดอาจมั่วจนคนหายหมดก็ได้ ใช่ไหมครับ?”

"แล้วถ้าเครือข่ายใหม่ล้มเหลวล่ะครับ? จะส่งผลอะไรต่อชุมชน Bitcoin เดิม?"

"ไอ้แชมป์มึงถามรัวจังวะ!?" แจ๊กสบถเพราะเริ่มตั้งรับไม่ทัน

“ก็ขึ้นกับตลาดจะเชื่อว่าสายไหนเป็น ‘ของจริง’ อีกนั่นแหละ” แจ๊กพิมพ์กลับ

“บางคนถือไว้เผื่อได้เหรียญใหม่ฟรี บางคนขายหนีตายก่อน"

"พี่เองก็ยังไม่กล้าการันตีเลย แต่ที่แน่ ๆ สงครามนี้ไม่ได้มีแค่ผลกำไร มันกระทบศรัทธาของชุมชน Bitcoin ทั้งหมดด้วย"

"ถ้าชาวเน็ตเลิกเชื่อมั่น หรือคนนอกมองว่าพวกเราทะเลาะกันเองเหมือนเด็กแย่งของเล่น ต่อให้ฝั่งไหนชนะ ก็อาจไม่มีผู้ใช้เหลือให้ฉลอง”

แล้วสายตาแจ๊กก็ปะทะกับกระทู้ใหม่ที่เด้งขึ้นมาบนหน้าฟอรัม

“โรเจอร์ แวร์ ประกาศ: ถ้าไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize เราจะฟอร์กเป็น Bitcoin ที่แท้จริง!”

ตัวหนังสือหนาแปะอยู่ตรงนั้นส่งแรงสั่นสะเทือนราวกับจะดึงคนในวงการให้ต้องเลือกข้างกันแบบไม่อาจกลับหลังได้

แจ๊กเอื้อมมือปิดแล็ปท็อปช้า ๆ คล้ายยอมรับความจริงว่าหนทางประนีประนอมอาจไม่มีอีกแล้ว..

“สงครามนี่คงใกล้ระเบิดเต็มทีล่ะนะ” เขาลุกจากเก้าอี้ สะพายเป้ พึมพำกับตัวเองขณะมองกาแฟดำที่เหลือครึ่งแก้ว “ถ้าพวกเขาฟอร์กจริง โลกคริปโตฯ ที่เราเคยรู้จักอาจไม่มีวันเหมือนเดิมอีกต่อไป”

เขามองออกไปนอกหน้าต่าง แสงแดดที่แผดเผาราวกับกำลังบอกว่า.. อนาคตของ Bitcoin อยู่ในจุดที่เส้นแบ่งระหว่างชัยชนะกับความล่มสลายเริ่มพร่าเลือน... และอาจไม่มีทางย้อนกลับ

ก่อนเดินออกจากร้าน เขากดส่งข้อความสั้น ๆ ถึงแชมป์

“เตรียมใจกับความปั่นป่วนไว้ให้ดี ไม่แน่ว่าเราอาจจะได้เห็น Bitcoin แตกเป็นหลายสาย.. ใครจะอยู่ใครจะไปไม่รู้เหมือนกัน แต่เรื่องนี้คงไม่จบง่าย ๆ แน่”

แจ๊กผลักประตูออกไปพบกับแดดจัดที่เหมือนแผดเผากว่าเดิม พายุร้อนไม่ได้มาแค่ในรูปความร้อนกลางกรุง แต่มาในรูป “สงคราม Blocksize” ที่พร้อมจะฉีกชุมชนคริปโตออกเป็นฝักฝ่าย และอาจลามบานปลายจนกลายเป็นศึกประวัติศาสตร์

ทว่าสิ่งที่ค้างคาใจกลับเป็นคำถามนั้น…

เมื่อเครือข่ายแบ่งเป็นหลายสายแล้ว เหรียญไหนจะเป็น Bitcoin จริง?

หรือบางที... ในโลกที่ใครก็ Fork ได้ตามใจ เราจะไม่มีวันได้เห็น “Bitcoin หนึ่งเดียว” อีกต่อไป?

คำถามที่ไม่มีใครตอบได้ชัดนี้ส่องประกายอยู่ตรงปลายทาง ราวกับป้ายเตือนว่า “อันตรายข้างหน้า” และคนในชุมชนทั้งหมดกำลังจะต้องเผชิญ…

โดยไม่มีใครมั่นใจเลยว่าจะรอด หรือจะแตกสลายไปก่อนกันแน่...

สองเส้นทาง (The Forked Path)

กลางปี 2017 ท้องฟ้าเหนือบุรีรัมย์ยังคงคุกรุ่นด้วยไอแดดและความร้อนแรงของสงคราม Blocksize แจ๊ก กู้ดเดย์ ก้าวเข้ามาในคาเฟ่เล็ก ๆ แห่งหนึ่งในย่านเทศบาลด้วยสีหน้าครุ่นคิด เขาพยายามมองหามุมสงบสำหรับนั่งตั้งหลักในโลกความเป็นจริง ก่อนจะจมดิ่งสู่สงครามในโลกดิจิทัลบนฟอรัม Bitcointalk อีกครั้ง

กลิ่นกาแฟคั่วเข้มลอยกระทบจมูก แจ๊กสั่งกาแฟดำแก้วโปรดแล้วปลีกตัวมาที่โต๊ะริมกระจก กระจกบานนั้นสะท้อนแสงอาทิตย์จัดจ้า ราวกับจะบอกว่าวันนี้คงไม่มีใครหนีความร้อนที่กำลังแผดเผา ทั้งในอากาศและในชุมชน Bitcoin ได้พ้น

เขาเปิดแล็ปท็อปขึ้น ล็อกอินเข้า Bitcointalk.org ตามเคย ข้อความและกระทู้มากมายกระหน่ำแจ้งเตือน ไม่ต่างอะไรจากสมรภูมิคำพูดที่ไม่มีวันหลับ “Hong Kong Agreement ล้มเหลวจริงหรือ?” “UASF คือปฏิวัติโดย Node?” เหล่านี้ล้วนสะท้อนความไม่แน่นอนในชุมชน Bitcoin ที่ตอนนี้ ดูคล้ายจะถึงจุดแตกหักเต็มที...

“ทั้งที่ตอนนั้นเราก็พยายามกันแทบตาย…” แจ๊กพึมพำ มองจอด้วยสายตาเหนื่อยใจพร้อมภาพความทรงจำย้อนกลับเข้าในหัว เขายังจำการประชุมที่ฮ่องกงเมื่อต้นปี 2016 ได้แม่น ยามนั้นความหวังในการประนีประนอมระหว่าง Big Block และ Small Block ดูเป็นไปได้ หากแต่กลายเป็นละครฉากใหญ่ที่จบลงโดยไม่มีใครยอมถอย...

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...การประชุม Hong Kong Agreement (2016)

ภายในห้องประชุมหรูของโรงแรมใจกลางย่านธุรกิจฮ่องกง บรรยากาศตึงเครียดยิ่งกว่าการเจรจาสงบศึกในสมัยโบราณ

โรเจอร์ แวร์ ยืนเสนอว่า “การเพิ่ม Blocksize สำคัญต่ออนาคตของ Bitcoin — เราอยากให้คนทั่วไปเข้าถึงได้โดยไม่ต้องจ่ายค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ๆ”

“จิฮั่น อู๋ (Jihan Wu)” จาก Bitmain นั่งฝั่งเดียวกับโรเจอร์ คอยเสริมว่าการเพิ่มบล็อกคือโอกาสสำหรับนักขุด และหากทีม Core ไม่ยอม พวกเขาก็พร้อม “ดัน Fork” ขึ้นได้ทุกเมื่อ ด้วย Hashrate มหาศาลที่พวกเขาคุมไว้

ฝั่ง ปีเตอร์ วูเล (Pieter Wuille) กับ เกร็ก แมกซ์เวลล์ (Greg Maxwell) จาก Bitcoin Core เถียงกลับอย่างใจเย็นว่า “การขยายบล็อกอาจดึงดูดทุนใหญ่ ๆ แล้วไล่ Node รายย่อยออกไป ชุมชนอาจไม่เหลือความกระจายอำนาจอย่างที่ Satoshi ตั้งใจ”

สุดท้าย บทสรุปที่เรียกว่า Hong Kong Agreement ลงนามได้ก็จริง แต่มันกลับเป็นแค่ลายเซ็นบนกระดาษที่ไม่มีฝ่ายไหนเชื่อใจใคร

แจ๊กเบือนสายตาออกนอกหน้าต่าง สังเกตเห็นผู้คนเดินขวักไขว่ บ้างก็ดูรีบร้อน บ้างเดินทอดน่องเหมือนว่างเปล่า นี่คงไม่ต่างอะไรกับชาวเน็ตในฟอรัมที่แบ่งฝ่ายกันใน “สงคราม Blocksize” อย่างไม่มีทีท่าจะหยุด

แค่ไม่กี่นาที... เสียงโทรศัพท์ก็ดังขึ้น ชื่อ แชมป์ ‘PIGROCK’ โชว์หราเต็มจออีกครั้ง

“ว่าไงเจ้าแชมป์?” แจ๊กกรอกเสียงในสายด้วยอารมณ์เหนื่อย ๆ ทว่าพร้อมจะอธิบายเหตุการณ์ตามสไตล์คนที่ชอบครุ่นคิด

“พี่แจ๊ก.. ผมเข้าใจแล้วว่าการประชุมฮ่องกงมันล้มเหลว ตอนนี้ก็มีคนแยกเป็นสองขั้ว Big Block กับ SegWit แต่ผมเจออีกกลุ่มในฟอรัมเรียกว่า UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork) ที่เหมือนจะกดดันพวกนักขุดให้ยอมรับ SegWit..."

"อยากรู้ว่าตกลง UASF มันสำคัญยังไงครับ? ทำไมใคร ๆ ถึงเรียกว่าเป็น การปฏิวัติโดย Node กัน?”

แจ๊กอมยิ้มก่อนจะวางแก้วกาแฟลง พูดด้วยน้ำเสียงจริงจังกว่าเดิม “UASF น่ะหรือ? มันเปรียบได้กับการที่ ‘ชาวนา’ หรือ ‘ประชาชนตัวเล็ก ๆ’ ออกมาประกาศว่า ‘ฉันจะไม่รับบล็อกของนักขุดที่ไม่รองรับ SegWit นะ ถ้าแกไม่ทำตาม ฉันก็จะตัดบล็อกแกทิ้ง!’ เสมือนเป็นการปฏิวัติที่บอกว่าแรงขุดมากแค่ไหนก็ไม่สำคัญ ถ้าคนรัน Node ไม่ยอม… เชนก็เดินต่อไม่ได้”

“โห… ฟังดูแรงจริง ๆ พี่ แล้วถ้านักขุดไม่ร่วมมือ UASF จะเกิดอะไรขึ้น?” แชมป์ถามต่อเสียงสั่นนิด ๆ

“ก็อาจเกิด ‘Chain Split’ ยังไงล่ะ"

"แยกเครือข่ายเป็นสองสาย สุดท้ายเครือข่ายเดิม กับเครือข่ายใหม่ที่รองรับ SegWit ไม่ตรงกัน คนอาจสับสนหนักยิ่งกว่า Hard Fork ปกติด้วยซ้ำ"

"แต่นั่นแหละ... มันแสดงพลังว่าผู้ใช้ทั่วไปก็มีสิทธิ์กำหนดทิศทาง Bitcoin ไม่ได้น้อยไปกว่านักขุดเลย”

“เข้าใจแล้วครับพี่… เหมือน การปฏิวัติโดยประชาชนตาดำ ๆ ที่จับมือกันค้านอำนาจทุนใหญ่ใช่ไหม?” แชมป์หยุดครู่หนึ่ง “ผมเคยคิดว่า Node รายย่อยน้อยรายจะไปสู้อะไรไหว แต่ตอนนี้ดูท่าจะเปลี่ยนเกมได้จริงว่ะพี่…”

“ใช่เลย” แจ๊กตอบ

“นี่เป็นความพิเศษของ Bitcoin ที่บอกว่า ‘เราคุมเครือข่ายร่วมกัน’ แม้แต่ Bitmain ที่มี Hashrate มากกว่า 50% ก็หนาวได้ถ้าผู้ใช้หรือ Node รายย่อยรวมพลังกันมากพอ”

แชมป์ฟังด้วยความตื่นเต้นปนกังวล “แล้วแบบนี้ เรื่อง SegWit กับ Blocksize จะจบยังไงครับ? เห็นข่าวว่าถ้านักขุดโดนกดดันมาก ๆ คนอย่าง จิฮั่น อู๋ อาจออกไปสนับสนุน Bitcoin Cash ที่จะเปิดบล็อกใหญ่”

แจ๊กเลื่อนดูฟีดข่าวในฟอรัม Bitcointalk อีกครั้ง ก็เห็นพาดหัวชัด ๆ

“Bitmain ประกาศกร้าวพร้อมหนุน BCH เต็มพิกัด!”

เขาถอนหายใจเฮือกหนึ่ง “ก็ใกล้เป็นจริงแล้วล่ะ… โรเจอร์ แวร์ เองก็ผลักดัน BCH ว่าคือ Bitcoin แท้ที่ค่าธรรมเนียมถูก ใช้งานได้จริง ส่วนฝั่ง BTC ที่ยึดเอา SegWit เป็นหลัก ก็ไม่ยอมให้ Blocksize เพิ่มใหญ่เกินจำเป็น.."

"ต่างคนต่างมีเหตุผล... แต่อุดมการณ์นี่คนละทางเลย”

“แล้วพี่คิดว่าใครจะเป็นฝ่ายชนะครับ?”

“เฮ้ย.. มึงถามยากไปหรือเปล่า” แจ๊กหัวเราะหึ ๆ “ทุกคนมีโอกาสได้หมด และก็มีโอกาสพังหมดเหมือนกัน ถ้า UASF กดดันนักขุดให้อยู่กับ Core ได้ พวกเขาอาจยอมแพ้ แต่ถ้า Bitmain เทใจไป BCH นักขุดรายใหญ่คนอื่น ๆ ก็คงตาม"

"แล้วถ้าฝั่ง BCH เริ่มได้เปรียบ... อาจดึงคนไปเรื่อย ๆ สุดท้ายจะเหลือไหมล่ะฝั่ง SegWit ตัวจริง?”

“งั้น Node รายย่อยจะยืนอยู่ตรงไหนล่ะครับพี่?” แชมป์ถามอย่างหนักใจ

“Node รายย่อยและชุมชนผู้ใช้นี่แหละ คือ ตัวแปรชี้ขาด ทุกวันนี้คนกลุ่ม UASF พยายามโชว์พลังว่าตัวเองมีสิทธิ์ตั้งกติกาเหมือนกัน ไม่ใช่แค่นักขุด"

"อย่างที่บอก.. มันคือการ ‘ลุกขึ้นปฏิวัติ’ โดยชาวนา ต่อสู้กับเจ้าที่ที่ถือ ‘แฮชเรต’ เป็นอาวุธ”

แจ๊กตบบ่าตัวเองเบา ๆ ก่อนจะหัวเราะเล็กน้อย

“นี่แหละความมันของ Bitcoin ไม่มีเจ้าไหนสั่งได้เบ็ดเสร็จจริง ๆ ทุกฝั่งต่างถือไพ่คนละใบ สงครามยังไม่รู้จะจบยังไง ถึงอย่างนั้นมันก็สะท้อนวิญญาณ ‘decentralization’ ที่แท้จริง กล้ายอมรับสิทธิ์ทุกฝ่ายเพื่อแข่งขันกันตามกติกา”

จู่ ๆ ในหน้าฟอรัมก็มีกระทู้ใหม่เด้งเด่น “Bitmain หนุน Bitcoin Cash ด้วย Hashrate กว่า 50%! สงครามเริ่มแล้ว?” ข้อความนั้นดังโครมครามเหมือนระเบิดลงกลางวง

แจ๊กนิ่งไปชั่วขณะ สัมผัสได้ถึงความปั่นป่วนที่กำลังปะทุขึ้นอีกครั้ง เหงื่อบางเบาซึมบนหน้าผากแม้อากาศในคาเฟ่จะเย็นฉ่ำ เขาหันมองโทรศัพท์ที่ยังค้างสายกับแชมป์ แล้วเอ่ยด้วยน้ำเสียงจริงจัง

“นี่ล่ะ.. จุดเริ่มของสองเส้นทางอย่างชัดเจน… บล็อกใหญ่จะไปกับ BCH ส่วน SegWit ก็อยู่กับ BTC แน่นอนว่าทั้งสองฝ่ายไม่คิดถอยง่าย ๆ นักขุดจะเลือกข้างไหน? Node รายย่อยจะยอมใคร?"

"เมื่อสงครามครั้งนี้นำไปสู่การแบ่งเครือข่าย ใครกันแน่จะเป็นผู้ชนะตัวจริง? หรืออาจไม่มีผู้ชนะเลยก็เป็นได้”

ปลายสายเงียบงัน มีแต่เสียงหายใจของแชมป์ที่สะท้อนความกังวลปนอยากรู้อย่างแรง

“พี่… สุดท้ายแล้วเรากำลังยืนอยู่บนรอยแยกที่พร้อมจะฉีกทุกอย่างออกเป็นชิ้น ๆ ใช่ไหมครับ?”

“อาจจะใช่ก็ได้... หรือถ้ามองอีกมุม อาจเป็นวัฏจักรที่ Bitcoin ต้องเจอเป็นระยะ ทุกคนมีสิทธิ์ Fork ได้ตามใจใช่ไหมล่ะ? ก็ขอให้โลกได้เห็นกันว่าชุมชนไหนแน่จริง” แจ๊กพูดทิ้งท้ายก่อนจะแย้มยิ้มเจือรอยอ่อนล้า

ภาพบนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ฉายกระทู้ถกเถียงกันไม่หยุด ประหนึ่งเวทีดีเบตที่ไม่มีวันปิดไฟ แจ๊กจิบกาแฟอึกสุดท้ายเหมือนจะเตรียมพร้อมใจก่อนเข้าสู่สนามรบครั้งใหม่ สงครามยังไม่จบ.. ซ้ำยังดูหนักข้อยิ่งขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ

เขาลุกขึ้นจากโต๊ะ ชำเลืองมองแสงแดดจัดจ้าที่สาดลงมาไม่หยุด เปรียบเหมือนไฟแห่งข้อขัดแย้งที่เผาผลาญทั้งชุมชน Bitcoin ไม่ว่าใครจะเลือกอยู่ฝั่งไหน กลุ่ม UASF, กลุ่ม Big Block, หรือ กลุ่ม SegWit ทางเดินข้างหน้าล้วนเต็มไปด้วยความไม่แน่นอน

“สุดท้ายแล้ว… เมื่อกระดานแบ่งเป็นสองเส้นทางอย่างเด่นชัด สงคราม Blocksize จะจบลงด้วยใครได้บทผู้ชนะ?"

"หรือบางที… มันอาจไม่มีผู้ชนะที่แท้จริงในระบบที่ใครก็ Fork ได้ตลอดเวลา”

คำถามนี้ลอยติดค้างอยู่ในบรรยากาศยามบ่ายที่ร้อนระอุ ชวนให้ใครก็ตามที่จับตาดูสงคราม Blocksize ต้องฉุกคิด

เมื่อไม่มีใครเป็นเจ้าของ Bitcoin อย่างสมบูรณ์ ทุกคนจึงมีสิทธิ์บงการและเสี่ยงต่อการแตกแยกได้ทุกเมื่อ แล้วท้ายที่สุด ชัยชนะ–ความพ่ายแพ้ อาจไม่ใช่จุดสิ้นสุดของโลกคริปโตฯ

แต่เป็นเพียงจุดเริ่มต้นของการวิวัฒน์ที่ไม่มีวันจบสิ้น…

เมาท์แถมเรื่อง UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork)

นี่สนามรบยุคกลางที่ดูเหมือนในหนังแฟนตาซี ทุกคนมีดาบ มีโล่ แต่จู่ ๆ คนตัวเล็กที่เราไม่เคยสังเกต—พวกชาวนา ช่างไม้ คนแบกน้ำ—กลับรวมตัวกันยกดาบบุกวังเจ้าเมือง พร้อมตะโกนว่า “พอเถอะ! เราก็มีสิทธิ์เหมือนกัน!”

มันอาจจะดูเวอร์ ๆ หน่อยใช่ไหมครับ?

แต่ในโลก Bitcoin ปี 2017 นี่คือสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นในรูปแบบ “User-Activated Soft Fork” หรือ UASF การปฏิวัติด้วยพลังโหนด ซึ่งทำให้นักขุดยักษ์ใหญ่ตัวสั่นงันงกันมาแล้ว!

แล้ว UASF มันคืออะไรล่ะ?

“User-Activated Soft Fork” หรือเรียกย่อ ๆ ว่า “UASF” ไม่ใช่อัปเกรดซอฟต์แวร์สวย ๆ แต่เป็น “ดาบเล่มใหม่” ที่คนตัวเล็ก—หมายถึง โหนด รายย่อย—ใช้ต่อรองกับนักขุดรายใหญ่ โดยกติกาคือ.. ถ้านักขุดไม่ทำตาม (เช่น ไม่รองรับ SegWit) โหนดก็จะปฏิเสธบล็อกของพวกเขาอย่างไม่เกรงใจใคร

สมมุติว่าคุณคือโหนด..

คุณรันซอฟต์แวร์ Bitcoin คอยตรวจสอบธุรกรรม วันดีคืนดี คุณประกาศ “ต่อไปถ้าใครไม่รองรับ SegWit ฉันไม่ยอมรับบล็อกนะ!” นี่ล่ะครับ “UASF” ตัวเป็น ๆ

คำขวัญสุดฮิตของ UASF

“No SegWit, No Block”

หรือแปลว่าถ้าบล็อกไม่รองรับ SegWit ก็เชิญออกไปเลยจ้า..

มันเหมือนการที่ชาวนาโผล่มาตบโต๊ะอาหารท่านขุนว่า “นายใหญ่จะปลูกอะไรก็ปลูกไป แต่ไม่งั้นฉันไม่รับผลผลิตนายนะ!”

ความเชื่อมโยงกับ BIP 148

ถ้าจะพูดถึง UASF ต้องรู้จัก BIP 148 ไว้นิดนึง มันเปรียบเหมือน “ธงปฏิวัติ” ที่ตีตราว่าวันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 คือเส้นตาย!

BIP 148 บอกไว้ว่า.. ถ้าถึงวันนั้นแล้วยังมีนักขุดหน้าไหนไม่รองรับ SegWit บล็อกที่ขุดออกมาก็จะถูกโหนดที่ใช้ UASF “แบน” หมด

ผลลัพธ์ที่ตั้งใจ นักขุดไม่อยากโดนแบนก็ต้องทำตาม UASF กล่าวคือ “นายต้องรองรับ SegWit นะ ไม่งั้นอด!”

หลายคนกลัวกันว่า “อ้าว ถ้านักขุดใหญ่ ๆ ไม่ยอมแล้วหันไปขุดสายอื่น จะไม่กลายเป็นแยกเครือข่าย (Chain Split) หรือ?”

ใช่ครับ.. มันอาจเกิดสงครามสายใหม่ทันทีไงล่ะ

ทำไม UASF ถึงสำคัญ?

ย้อนกลับไปก่อนปี 2017 Bitcoin มีปัญหาโลกแตกทั้งค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ธุรกรรมหน่วง บวกกับความขัดแย้งเรื่อง “จะเพิ่ม Blocksize ดีไหม?” ทางกลุ่มนักขุดรายใหญ่ (นำโดย Bitmain, Roger Ver ฯลฯ) รู้สึกว่า “SegWit ไม่ใช่ทางออกที่แท้จริง” แต่อีกฝั่ง (ทีม Core) ชี้ว่า “Blocksize ใหญ่มากไปจะรวมศูนย์นะ โหนดรายย่อยตายหมด”

UASF เลยโผล่มา เหมือนชาวนาตะโกนว่า

“หุบปากได้แล้วไอ้พวกที่สู้กัน! ถ้าพวกแกไม่รองรับ SegWit พวกข้า (โหนด) ก็จะไม่เอาบล็อกแก”

สาระก็คือ.. มันคือตัวบ่งชี้ว่าคนตัวเล็กอย่างโหนดรายย่อยก็มีพลังต่อรอง เป็นกลไกที่ดึงอำนาจจากมือทุนใหญ่กลับสู่มือชุมชน (Decentralization ที่แท้ทรู)

วิธีการทำงานของ UASF

ลองจินตนาการตาม..

1. การกำหนดเส้นตาย BIP 148 ประกาศไว้ “ถึงวันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 ถ้านายยังไม่รองรับ SegWit โหนด UASF จะไม่รับบล็อกนาย”

2. ถ้าคุณเป็นนักขุด… คุณขุดบล็อกออกมา แต่ไม่ได้ตีธง “ฉันรองรับ SegWit” UASF โหนดเห็นปุ๊บ พวกเขาจะจับโยนทิ้งไปเลย

3. ผลกระทบ? นักขุดที่ไม่ยอมทำตามจะเจอปัญหา บล็อกที่ขุดออกมาไม่มีใครรับ—เสียแรงขุดฟรี

อาจเกิด Chain Split คือ แยกเครือข่ายเลย ถ้านักขุดเหล่านั้นไปตั้งสายใหม่

ความสำเร็จและความท้าทายของ UASF

ความสำเร็จ.. หลังการรวมพลังผู้ใช้ โหนดรายย่อยกดดันนักขุดได้ไม่น้อย จนกระทั่ง SegWit เปิดใช้งานจริงใน Bitcoin วันที่ 24 สิงหาคม 2017 ช่วยให้ธุรกรรมเร็วขึ้น แก้ Transaction Malleability และเปิดทางสู่ Lightning Network ในอนาคต

ความท้าทาย.. นักขุดบางค่ายไม่โอเค.. โดยเฉพาะ Bitmain ซึ่งคาดว่าจะสูญรายได้บางส่วน ก็นำไปสู่การสนับสนุน “Bitcoin Cash (BCH)” แยกสาย (Hard Fork) ของตัวเองตั้งแต่วันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 นั่นเอง

ว่าแล้วก็เปรียบง่าย ๆ

UASF เหมือนปฏิบัติการยึดคฤหาสน์เจ้าเมืองมาเปิดให้ชาวบ้านเข้าอยู่ฟรี.. แต่อีกฝ่ายบอก

“งั้นฉันออกไปตั้งคฤหาสน์ใหม่ดีกว่า!”

บทเรียนสำคัญ UASF เป็นตัวอย่างชัดว่า “ผู้ใช้” หรือ โหนดรายย่อย สามารถสร้างแรงกดดันให้นักขุดต้องยอมเปลี่ยนได้จริง ๆ ไม่ใช่แค่ยอมรับเงื่อนไขที่ขุดกันมา

ผลกระทบระยะยาวหลังจากนั้นล่ะ?

SegWit ถูกใช้งาน ทำให้ค่าธรรมเนียมธุรกรรมลดลง (ช่วงหนึ่ง) เกิด Lightning Network เป็น Layer 2 สุเฟี้ยวของ Bitcoin เกิด BCH (Bitcoin Cash) เป็นสายแยกที่อ้างว่า Blocksize ใหญ่คือทางออก

สรุปแล้ว UASF ทำให้โลกได้รู้ว่า..

Bitcoin ไม่ใช่ของนักขุด หรือของฝ่ายพัฒนาใดฝ่ายเดียว แต่มันเป็นของทุกคน!

“Bitcoin เป็นของทุกคน”

ไม่มีใครมีอำนาจเบ็ดเสร็จ ไม่ว่าคุณจะถือ Hashrate มากแค่ไหน ถ้า Node ทั่วโลกไม่เอา ก็จบ!

“แรงขุดใหญ่แค่ไหน ก็แพ้ใจมวลชน!”

(น่าจะมีตอนต่อไปนะ.. ถ้าชอบก็ Zap โหด ๆ เป็นกำลังใจให้ด้วยนะครับ)

@ 7ed5bd1c:4caa7587

Bitcoin เป็นเกราะป้องกันจากการควบคุมของรัฐบาล

ในโลกที่การควบคุมทางการเงินของรัฐมีผลกระทบต่อชีวิตของประชาชน การปกป้องทรัพย์สินส่วนบุคคลจึงเป็นประเด็นสำคัญที่หลายคนกังวล Bitcoin ได้เข้ามามีบทบาทสำคัญในฐานะเครื่องมือที่ช่วยป้องกันการอายัดทรัพย์สินและการแทรกแซงทางการเงินจากรัฐบาลและองค์กรต่างๆ

กรณีศึกษาที่น่าสนใจ

1. เวเนซุเอลา: เมื่อประเทศประสบภาวะเงินเฟ้อสูงและรัฐบาลมีการควบคุมการแลกเปลี่ยนเงินตราต่างประเทศ ประชาชนบางส่วนใช้ Bitcoin เพื่อรักษามูลค่าทรัพย์สินของพวกเขาและทำธุรกรรมข้ามพรมแดนโดยไม่ต้องผ่านการตรวจสอบจากรัฐบาล

2. แคนาดา: ในปี 2022 รัฐบาลแคนาดามีการอายัดบัญชีธนาคารของผู้ประท้วงในการเคลื่อนไหวทางการเมืองบางอย่าง Bitcoin กลายเป็นช่องทางในการระดมทุนและช่วยให้ประชาชนสามารถป้องกันการแทรกแซงจากรัฐบาลได้

3. ไนจีเรีย: ธนาคารกลางไนจีเรียสั่งห้ามธุรกรรมที่เกี่ยวข้องกับ Bitcoin และคริปโตเคอร์เรนซีอื่นๆ แต่ประชาชนกลับหันมาใช้ Bitcoin ในตลาดมืดเพื่อหลีกเลี่ยงข้อจำกัดและรักษาความเป็นอิสระทางการเงิน

Bitcoin ปกป้องทรัพย์สินอย่างไร?

1. ความเป็นเจ้าของแท้จริง: Bitcoin ใช้ระบบกระจายศูนย์ที่ไม่มีตัวกลาง ซึ่งหมายความว่าไม่มีองค์กรหรือรัฐใดสามารถเข้าถึงหรือยึดครอง Bitcoin ของคุณได้ หากคุณเก็บรักษาคีย์ส่วนตัวอย่างปลอดภัย

2. ไร้พรมแดน: Bitcoin สามารถโอนย้ายได้ทั่วโลกโดยไม่ต้องผ่านธนาคารหรือสถาบันการเงินที่อยู่ภายใต้การควบคุมของรัฐบาล ทำให้เป็นตัวเลือกที่น่าสนใจสำหรับผู้ที่ต้องการหลบเลี่ยงการอายัดทรัพย์สิน

3. ความโปร่งใสและความปลอดภัย: การทำธุรกรรมของ Bitcoin ถูกบันทึกในบล็อกเชนซึ่งเป็นระบบที่โปร่งใสและตรวจสอบได้ ในขณะเดียวกันข้อมูลส่วนบุคคลของผู้ใช้งานจะถูกเก็บเป็นความลับ

ข้อควรระวัง

แม้ Bitcoin จะมีข้อดีในเรื่องการปกป้องทรัพย์สินจากรัฐ แต่ผู้ใช้งานต้องมีความระมัดระวังในการจัดเก็บคีย์ส่วนตัว และหลีกเลี่ยงการพึ่งพาบริการจากบุคคลที่สามที่อาจไม่ปลอดภัย

---

ในโลกที่อิสรภาพทางการเงินถูกท้าทาย Bitcoin กลายเป็นเครื่องมือสำคัญสำหรับการปกป้องทรัพย์สินและสิทธิส่วนบุคคลของประชาชน คุณคิดว่า Bitcoin สามารถเป็นคำตอบสำหรับความท้าทายนี้ได้จริงหรือไม่? ร่วมพูดคุยในความคิดเห็น!

@ 896c3ee8:e054cc31

I was scrolling through some news articles published by Primal.net/flash on my phone —Bitcoin up, Trump said this or that, accompanied by a screenshot of Twitter. I asked myself: why does social media exist? Is it to fulfill our need for social connection? Is it to show off our thoughts? Is it validation? It wasn’t like this long ago. It was a part of life now it is Life.

Quite some time ago, I was baffled to see a woman being prosecuted in a court of law based on what she had posted on Facebook! Facebook? Seriously, an internet post landing a person in jail? Since when? No one notified me. I thought the internet was just a thing—a toy for us to play with, have fun, and then return to our real life. I remember using Pidgin and IRC; back then, the internet was just a tool. One sudden day, all of that turned into serious business. Early internet, and by extension social media, was a fun place, but now it is a place where real money is spent and real lives are built. I mean, some of the richest companies are software companies—an industry titan propelled by intangible property. It is hard not to miss the early days when one could say absolutely anything in a forum post and leave forever, detached from the filth they spewed. Now we all know censorship, data mining, AI training, and laws getting involved. I cannot even take part in a cultural movement without being tracked and attacked. At some point, the internet attached itself to human consciousness so deeply that it has now become inseparable from the human experience and experience of life. Just like reading and writing, to live a modern life, one must have an internet connection and a social media account. It’s disheartening to think that our worth is often measured by the number of people who 'follow' us.

This attachment meant that there were powers who needed to control the internet. Laws were hopeless on the internet—one could break a list of laws of a particular country sitting from a boat in a faraway land where no jurisdictional police could touch a single fleck of their hair. This cross-border nature made it very necessary for law enforcement to up their game, and so they did. Now, posting something and forgetting it being associated with you is a dream of the past.

To achieve this, they went into a Hail Mary attempt to break human rights written in the declaration they all signed. The right to privacy needed to go first. You see, on the internet, you are not a human—just a fat, Mountain Dew-drinking piece of meat, a data generation machine. Rights mean very little for you if you are a keyboard warrior. No clause in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights said that an account on the internet is a human! So you lose privacy. Since law enforcers break privacy, it looks like it really is not a crime to break it. So, service providers break it too. Who is to stop them now? Law enforcers?

That is just the tip, perhaps even a necessary evil. Breaking privacy only allows enforcement of laws that have been written. There needs to be some mechanism to enforce laws that are not written—the so-called "soft laws" (a term used in international law). If illegal activity is to be curbed, instead of chasing after criminals, why not be proactive and get to the root of the evil: human thought? Here enters censorship. If you don't know about something you won't act on it. If you do not know about guns, you will not pick up a gun. Censorship allows law enforcers to enforce laws that may be written in the future, potential laws. Maybe one day, being on a particular political side will be deemed illegal, so let’s stop it now. Ever heard of a cat chasing a mouse? Censorship is just a mouse chasing a cat. A reversal of cause and effect.

These two factors, coupled with the internet's revenue stream—your attention—ruined the internet. Ads by God are one of the most human things humans have created: “Let us show you what you could be a part of. As you are right now, you seem unfulfilled; let us show you what you want.” The economy of attention is best tapped by creators working on our primal urge for reproduction. The porn industry is a mega titan for this reason. I do not have any bad words against the innovators working in that industry. They are the true and perhaps only industry that uses the internet to its maximum and has great respect for technology and technological innovation.

When I think more deeply about the purpose of social media, I realize I have no clear answer. Why should one show what their lunch looks like? What is the goal of sharing such trivial experiences? Perhaps the dopamine rush of likes and engagement is strong enough to motivate such actions. The definition of an individual gets blurred here. What is an individual person? A collection of social media posts? Or should we emphasize more on your offline version the flawed acne and angst filled individual who subscribes to the weird, concorted philosophy of Proudhon, Locke, and Marx? The algorithms have been determining the future of people on social media. People are worried about losing jobs to a computer now. Since YouTube and Instagram started utilizing attention to pay people, algorithms began to determine who should be paid and what should be paid. The ship of us being under a computer has long sailed.

To answer why social media exists, here is one study that identified ten uses and gratifications for using social media: social interaction, information seeking, passing time, entertainment, relaxation, communicatory utility, convenience utility, expression of opinion, information sharing, and surveillance/knowledge about others (reference ISSN: 1352-2752). Most studies you find will be in line with these. I will not expound more on this; you all know why you use social media, and you all also know why people use social media.

To end it, Nostr gives you certain things that traditional social media and the 'internet' fail to provide. You know what those are since you are here.

P.S.—This is written exclusively for the eyes in the Nostr ecosystem. I will not publish it anywhere else. Link people to this post even from outside; I don’t care.

@ bd50a856:038f487c

I'M NOT IN SCHOOL WHY AM I DOING THIS?

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Isms in my opinion are not good. - Ferris Bueler

OK so like many a disillusioned youth I was a pretty hardcore Marxist back in college. There's a common pipeline that starts as a 13 year old who wished they could vote for Ron Paul in 2008, takes a hard left turn at the first sign of bigotry, and winds up with a pretty badass juche tattoo. The Enlightenment era ideas of an ascertainable objective truth and mankind's control over their own destiny, combined with the complete subversion of the political history I was brought up with felt very empowering. But nowadays I'm not so sure I want to lay claim to any specific point or vector on the political spectrum. 2024 was in many ways a year of reflection for me. I've managed to reconnect with my sense of spirituality after years of bitterness towards the concept brought on by a life of run-ins with religious fundemantalism, and I had to challenge alot of things that for years I've taken for granted both about myself and the world at large. This ideological audit was in no small way catalyzed by my adoption of NOSTR, which with its endless potential enticed me out of the progressive echo chamber I made my digital home on the fediverse and into a new echo chamber: one full of Bitcoiners.

I had bought Bitcoin before, as a way to short the dollar, but I never encountered its ideologues in the wild. At first gradually then suddenly I was making the types of arguments in my head that former me would have decried as pedantic to the point of being apologetic towards the ruling class. And just like that the 19th and 20th century political and philosophical works which I zaelously held as trail blazes on the long and labyrinthine path towards realizing Absolute Truth were cast forcefully into their murky historical context by the staggering success of the first truly decentralized monetary system. In my college days, I saw Lenin's model of revoutionary politics and the Vanguard Party as the only way for a people's movement to legitimately threaten the hegemony of the global oligarchs who caused so much unnecessary suffering. Now I can see how whether or not that type of centralization was a necessary concession then, one cannot in good faith believe it to be so in the age of Bitcoin.

Yet you'll have to forgive me because still I'm sympathetic to much of the broader movement of Marxism. I detest how Great Man Theory suboordinates the totality of the evolution of society to the wills of a few individuals, and prefer to see socialism in a different light. Rather than viewing the movement as a clever trick some cartoonishly evil mustaches and haircuts used to brainwash almost half the human population, I see a genuine attempt by hundreds of millions of people to change the world for the better, forever. Yes the suffering was immense, and many many people for whom the tumult was too much, as well as those who wished to maintain their parasitic lifestyles, fled for their lives it was far from a black and white phenomena. Living standards also skyrocketed over the long run in places like the USSR and the PRC, from literacy to employment to diet, access to healthcare, you name it. But still the narrative of Hegel's Dialectic playing out in the arena of class politics - wherein the oppressed by becoming the oppressors would naturally do away with oppression altogether by following their self interest just as the Bourgeoisie had done, thereby unwinding the knot of economic injustice - has lost its status as the driving force of all of history for me. It's still much more compelling than the caricature of simply replacing one form of centralization with another. Rather its a much more relatable fallacy: taking a truth, in this case the millennia of class struggle which humanity has dealt with since the advent of agriculture, and trying to extrapolate from it some abstract and all compassing polemic that makes it all make sense. Moreover, in the same way that Bitcoiners say, "Once you see it you can never go back," I cannot unlearn just how hypocritical and dishonest the Western narrative of history is. Lying and calling America the land of the land of opportunity when the abundance we've known for our Empire's whole existence exists merely because of stolen land and slave labor. This is not a moralist objection by the way, though that would be wholly justified. The true horror is that people view the US as the model of a self sufficient nation state when in reality it has always been parasitic, even in it's larval stage. And of course the disillusion with every military campaign since the end of World War 2, starting with the grotesque and gratuitous display of power in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, then the fraudulant and deadly campaigns in Korea, Loas, Vietnam, and of course the entire Middle East. Our own forms of surveillance, censorship, repression all staring at us in the images we projected on the face of the Berlin Wall.

I know a little part of that probably rubbed some of you the wrong way. Hey we still were a net positive force in WW2, of course. And despite many differences in historical interpretations, when it comes to Marx's tomes of economic criticism I think the Bitcoiners of NOSTR would find a lot of rhetorical similarities with their gripes about the age of fiat actually share many rhetorical similarities: The levers of control over the global economy had been consolidated by a select view who were spamming them to make themselves inordinately wealthy at the cost of the quality of life for the majority of Planet Earth. The value of your labor is being ciphoned by a bunch of rackateering lizard men known as politicians. Fair competition, the spirit of Capitalism on paper, has been eroded by its those who claim to be its biggest proponents. Forever wars as a business, predatory global economic policies, proles=plebs, yada yada. Although I guess this note would be pointless if I yada-yada'd over the best parts.

THE INVISIBLE HANDJOB

https://image.nostr.build/595f3d10072c92fc66f9ad314de5d6eeb7e76a9bc26021c690d89cbd9bbe0a15.gif

The landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce. -Adam Smith

In the above quoted Wealth of Nations (Book 1, chapter 11) as well as in Book 4 and in The Theory of Moral Sentiments, everyone's favorite economist they've never read paints a complex and somewhat contradictory image of the proprietors over the means of production in his time. He saw greed and gluttony in their souls, but viewed their actions within the context of an emergent system whereby their selfishness propelled the interest of everyone. So, almost exactly how Marx viewed the holy timespanning vendetta of the have-nots of the world. However, in Book 1 ch10 of Wealth of Nations Smith says this:

[The rent] is not at all proportioned to what the landlord may have laid out upon the improvement of the land, or to what he can afford to take; but to what the farmer can afford to give,

In a section where he concedes that the landlords' actions amount to extortion. He also articulates here how through the influence of legislation, the landlord class effectively outlawed collective negotiation on the part of the working class while bolstering it for themselves, resulting in monopolies. Marx cites Smith himself throughout Das Kapital, and lays out extensively this process of the consolidation of capitalist power in part 3 of the first volume. The two also subscribed to the Labor Theory of Value, as did every other Enlightenment era economist... and so do most Bitcoiners! At least they sure sound like they do when they talk about the erosion of the masses' life force by the debasement of fiat. After all if the commodity that is money is an expression of your time and labor, then so must be the value of every other commodity. I've heard people try to glibly dismiss the LTV as stupid, citing things like land, products of fully automated processes... And digital assets. As if land didn't have to be surveyed, and discovered (or won in a genocide). Or if fully automated production processes didn't require thousands of hours of expert labor on robotics and/or computer engineering. Or if all financial assets in general didn't hold merely a hypothetical value as a representation of value wrought in the productive economy. And to be perfectly honest I always found the subjective theory of value to be downright silly, like imagine haggling at a supermarket over a gallon of milk. Yes demand is subjective (and really more of an expression of willing buying power than need but that's a whole other can of worms), but it's wholly reliant on objective factors such as scarcity and the relative difficulty to produce a certain commodity oneself. And when those who corner the market collude on pricing it's not like you even have the ability to "vote with your money". You have no leverage, unless you own a cow. All in all the price of a commodity can't be anything other than an approximation of its objective value based on the average cost of the raw materials and socially necessary labor time, ebbing and flowing with the asynchronous undulations of supply and demand. And maybe a little extra something just to cushion that P&L. OK maybe a lot. Gotta outperform inflation, right?! Was I being glib, myself, there? It just feels self evident from my current perspective, the hollow vampirism of it all. Capitalists enacting the rights to procure surplus value, reinsert it as capital in order to procure even more surplus value, rinsing and repeating, drifting further and further from the corporeal reality of our own survival and swallowing entire generations in the process.

STATISTS BE LIKE...

https://image.nostr.build/3109eed06d708cfad1ec0c8f4a823b8d6c58b73d3a7f73a94cdcafe22554656f.jpg

The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem- Milton Friedman

On September 11, 1973 Chilean President Salvador Allende died during a fascist coup d'état perpetrated by the commander in chief of the military Augusto Pinochet. Officially he took his own life for fear of what would be done to him, but it remains a contentious topic. Pinochet's regime was characterized by mass arrests, widespread use of torture, extrajudicial killings, mass exiles, and brutal censorship of his political ditractors. But he cut taxes!!!! And he did so with the council of the Chicago Boys, a group of Chicago University alumni and disciples of right wing icon Milton Friedman. Friedman applauded Pinochet's government for his economic policies and providing a shining example of Milton's take on what small laissez-faire government looks like: Repression of the masses, no rules for the classes.

Pinochet was also a collaborator with the CIA on their project Operation Condor, whereby the funding and stoking of violence and unrest was weaponized to subvert the rise of left leaning politics throughout South and Central America and maintain cheap access to raw materials which US corporations relied on. As a matter of fact, the deep state has an endless track record of resorting to all sorts of crazy measures to subvert the popularity of socialism. This contradicts directly the American conservative view that the deep state wants socialism, and that Trump - who has cooperated in the continuations of these policies with the attempted coups in Venezuela and Bolivia during his first term - is here to stop 'em. The scapegoating and fear mongering of foreign left leaning governments in lucrative regions is a time honored tradition here In the US. All the West has always had more in common with the totalitarianism of Fascism than the East. If you're curious or skeptical about this, looking up Michael Parenti's Blackshirts & Reds is a good place to start digging deeper.

And while conservatives remain in denial about the parasiticism and exclusion their version of freedom relies on, Progressivism, as I see it, is a limping, mutilated, abomination of a watered down version of itself. Democrats for over a century now continue offering the bare minimum that would assuage their cinstituencies in the short term at best, and the exact same neocon policies of war and imperialism abroad, and corporate oligarchy and a police state at home. Yet every two years progressives walk beleaguered to the polls to vote blue no who. And Milton Friedman laughs in his grave. Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes, attributed to president of Tanzinia, Julius Nyere: "The Americans also have a one party state, but with typical American extravegance, they have two of them." https://image.nostr.build/9380dbc6d51a443b76340b46c760e12c9bb0540a170a8f5a2a22847e0bba88c7.jpg

WHAT IS DO BE DONE?

https://image.nostr.build/94aaebe5364c3c6a0094f09640ef18b05938d889124f874c49243f4ea972f725.jpg

I found freedom. Losing all hope is freedom. - Edward Norton, Fight Club

If you made it through all that rambling, what is wrong with you? In all seriousness, I hope this was a fruitful glance into the mind of someone who might think a little differently. In a rapidly evolving world, where systems we ourselves have put in place not only constitute the environment we live in, but reproduce themselves through our behavior as well, despondency, rage, and confusion permeate the collective consciousness. But there's also Bitcoin, which to an increasing number - and to an extent myself - represents a successful proof of concept of a new, genuinely Decentralized Ideological Apparatus. One which relies on Mutual Aid and the cooperation of smaller, decentralized and self sufficient communities. And to a certain extent it also represents hope. But it's as much an asset to those who'd prefer to continue feeding on the suffering of others as it is to those hoping for a change. Hope is as dangerous as fear - Lao Tzu

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Tree branches, Rock. 4' x 4 [Boulder, USA. 2016]

Introduction

Nestled deep in the forest near Boulder, "Looking Glass" invites viewers to rediscover the quiet beauty of overlooked natural details. By framing the play of light, texture, and shadow through a 4-foot circular lens, the piece shifts focus to the microcosms of the forest, drawing attention to a small and overlooked waterfall.

Site & Placement

The lens is perched amid a cluster of trees, emphasizing a quiet patch of the forest that often goes unnoticed. Positioned 22 feet from the lens, a carefully placed bench offers a perfect vantage point, guiding visitors to linger, observe, and absorb the layered simplicity of the scene.

Impermanence & Integration

True to the ethos of the Earth Lens series, Looking Glass exists only briefly. Its natural materials—branches, wood, and rock—blend seamlessly into the forest and will eventually be reclaimed by it. The fleeting presence of the lens reflects the transient beauty of life, encouraging viewers to appreciate the details that often escape notice in the rush of time.

Reflection

In its short life, Looking Glass offers a moment of stillness and clarity, a chance to peer into the intimate world of the forest. The work becomes a lens not just for the environment but also for introspection, reminding viewers of the quiet wonders that surround them every day.

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Photos

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More from the 'Earth Lens' Series:

Earth Lens Series: Artist Statement + List of Works

COMING SOON: "Folsom" (Earth Lens 002)

COMING SOON: "Sanctuary" (Earth Lens 003)

COMING SOON: "Platte" (Earth Lens 004)

COMING SOON: "Grandfather" (Earth Lens 005)

COMING SOON: "Chongming" (Earth Lens 006)

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More from Hes

Art

Store

Travel Guides

Photography

Writings

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All images are credit of Hes, but you are free to download and use for any purpose. If you find joy from my art, please feel free to send a zap. Enjoy life on a Bitcoin standard.

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Table Of Content

• Rollercoaster Rides

• The Impact of Macroeconomic Forces

• Short-term Projections

• Ethereum's Steady Stance

• Week-on-week Comparisons

• Altcoins in Focus

• The Laggards

• Market Overview

• Conclusion

• FAQ

September has once again proven itself to be a tumultuous month for the world's most prominent cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC). This month-long rollercoaster ride has historical roots, as September has historically been a challenging period for Bitcoin. However, the first two-thirds of the month showcased remarkable progress, raising expectations. But the recent resurgence of the US dollar has cast a shadow over the entire crypto market, leading to uncertainty among investors and traders.

Rollercoaster Rides

As the calendar pages flipped through September, Bitcoin embarked on a rollercoaster ride that left many in the crypto community holding their breath. Over the weekend, Bitcoin witnessed a significant dip, eroding a substantial portion of its gains for the month. Sunday's trading session saw the BTC/USDT pair drop by 1.2%, closing at $26,250. Monday's early trades further exacerbated the bearish trend, pushing the pair below $26,150. These rapid fluctuations in Bitcoin's value have been a hallmark of its journey in recent weeks.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Forces

In addition to its internal dynamics, Bitcoin has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly the policies and guidance provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Last week, the Fed's unexpected hawkish stance sent shockwaves through financial markets, including the crypto sphere. This policy shift had an adverse effect on risk-on trading sentiment, causing investors to reevaluate their strategies. As the month approaches its conclusion, a less eventful macroeconomic calendar might imply reduced volatility in the coming days. However, the lingering impact of the Fed's decisions remains a source of uncertainty.

Short-term Projections

To gain insights into Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, market analysts have turned to Binance's order book analysis. According to their assessment, a support line appears to be forming at the $25,000 mark, providing some stability in the face of recent turbulence. Conversely, selling resistance has been identified at $27,500, indicating a significant challenge for Bitcoin's upward momentum. These levels are likely to play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's path in the immediate future, with traders closely monitoring any breaches or rebounds.

Ethereum's Steady Stance

In contrast to Bitcoin's rollercoaster performance, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has demonstrated a more stable trajectory over the past few days. While Saturday saw minimal fluctuations, Sunday's trades witnessed a modest 0.8% dip, settling at $1,580. As of Monday, Ethereum has maintained this position, indicating resilience in the face of market turbulence. Ethereum's stability, as compared to Bitcoin's wild swings, underscores the unique dynamics at play within the broader cryptocurrency market.

Week-on-week Comparisons

Examining the performance of these two leading cryptocurrencies over the course of the week reveals intriguing trends. Bitcoin has experienced a 2% decline in its value, signaling the challenges it faced amid a shifting financial landscape. Meanwhile, Ethereum has faced a slightly more significant drop of over 3%. These fluctuations underscore the inherent volatility of the crypto market, even among its most prominent players.

Altcoins in Focus

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the broader altcoin spectrum presents a diverse set of performances. One standout performer has been Solana (SOL), which surged ahead by an impressive 1.75% in the past seven days. This remarkable growth has garnered the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. Additionally, Ripple (XRP) has maintained positive momentum, adding approximately 0.8% to its value. These altcoins' resilience serves as a testament to the unique dynamics within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The Laggards

However, not all altcoins have been able to escape the gravitational pull of Bitcoin's performance. Prominent digital assets such as Binance's BNB token, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Polygon (MATIC) have mirrored Bitcoin's downward trend. These digital assets have seen marginal losses in terms of their respective market capitalizations, underscoring the interconnectedness of the cryptocurrency market.

Market Overview

At present, the global cryptocurrency market cap stands at an impressive $1.04 trillion, signifying the substantial size and influence of the digital asset market. Bitcoin continues to command a dominant position, with a market dominance of 49.9%. This reaffirms Bitcoin's status as the undisputed leader in the digital asset space, despite the challenges it faces in September.

Conclusion

As September draws to a close, the battle between Bitcoin and the resurgent US dollar remains uncertain. The interplay between internal dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment will continue to shape the crypto landscape in the days ahead. Traders and enthusiasts alike will be watching closely to discern the next moves in this high-stakes confrontation. As the dust settles, the cryptocurrency market will likely reveal new trends and opportunities for those who can navigate these uncertain waters with agility and insight.

FAQ

Why is September historically challenging for Bitcoin? September has traditionally been a tough month for Bitcoin, with factors like market sentiment and macroeconomic forces contributing to its volatility during this period.

How is the US dollar impacting Bitcoin's recent performance? The resurgence of the US dollar has cast a shadow over the crypto market, leading to uncertainty and impacting Bitcoin's value.

What are the short-term projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Short-term projections for Bitcoin suggest a support line at $25,000 and resistance at $27,500, while Ethereum has maintained relative stability.

Which altcoins have performed well recently? Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) have shown positive momentum, but some prominent altcoins have followed Bitcoin's downward trend.

That's all for today

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“Bitcoin is a clock with a new concept of time – block height – synchronously marking depletion of the most valuable resource in the universe, our time.” - Ross Stevens

'The fact that billions of working men and women must sacrifice 40+ years of their time, energy, health, and focus to gain access to fiat currencies that central banks can replicate with a keystroke is injustice on the largest scale humanity has ever seen. It is theft. Bitcoin' - Bitcoin for Freedom

'Billions of people will watch the generational opportunity to own 1 whole Bitcoin slip through their fingers and never return. There will be less than 500,000 whole-coiners in the world, which will continue to drop, regardless of how many people wish they had one. This is wealth based on math.' Wealth Theory

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Happy New Year fam!🧡 Here's to a year filled with love, health, and wonderful Bitcoin moments.

Now before I am going to start with the Weekly Recap I want to share what is happening with MiCA / Travel Rule in the EU. The EU is back with more attacks on our freedom. Their 2025 MiCA and TravelRule regulations are just another step to control and surveil our financial lives. This is a good thread on what’s happening with MiCA in the EU. To make it even more specific, a thread worth your time especially if you're in Europe. x.com/ferenckovacs/status/1873278442600325235

To sum it up. The EU is cracking down on freedom while America is on the verge of an unprecedented pro-Bitcoin administration. The EU is going to be left behind again (!) because of a lack of Bitcoin education. That's why I am writing my Weekly Recaps and created this account (Bitcoin Friday). Change the world through Bitcoin education.

On the 24th of December: ➡️Michael Saylor is not fucking around. MicroStrategy just said that they want to raise the authorized share count by 10 BILLION. They currently have 330 million shares outstanding, meaning this could increase the share count by 3,000%. Microstrategy now owns 444.000 Bitcoin. That is as much as China, the US, and the UK combined. Madness! Key proposals include: 1. Increasing authorized Class A shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion to support future capital raising. 2. Increasing authorized preferred shares from 5 million to 1.005 billion to expand financing options. 3. Amending the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan to provide automatic equity awards for new directors joining the Board.

➡️While others are selling, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF bought $32 million in BTC yesterday.

➡️The value of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury is now 12x larger than the market cap of the entire company in April. Metaplanet is using Saylor's playbook. All 1,761.99 of Metaplanet’s BTC are verifiable on the chain.

➡️The Bank of Italy identifies Bitcoin P2P services as "crime-as-a-service", due to their alleged use in money laundering operations. Ma figura di merda! Don't let them frame regular Bitcoin usage as criminal. You have a right to freedom of transaction, privacy, and self-custody. Oh on a side note. They should be banning the "crime-as-a-service" Euro then - which constitutes 98.5% of illicit money laundering compared to Bitcoin, cazzos!

➡️Less than 1.2 million Bitcoin left to mine! Tick-tock, next block! (foto)

➡️Publicly traded Matador Technologies Inc. approves to purchase of $4.5 million Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

➡️South African parliament member Mzwanele Manyi said "Bitcoin is coming in full force. It will devalue gold. It's unstoppable."

On the 25th of December: ➡️Russia is using BITCOIN in foreign trade, says finance minister - Reuters Finance Minister: "Such transactions are already occurring. We believe they should be expanded and developed further. I am confident this will happen next year". From last week: "Russia lawmakers were this week revealed to be pushing the country to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve... Vladimir Putin praised bitcoin as an alternative to FX reserves following the seizure of its funds by Western governments." I guess banning them from SWIFT wasn’t the greatest idea after all.

➡️Jameson Lopp: "If you have a lot of bitcoin you should leave it with a custodian." 'Meanwhile, custodian losses in 2024: Rain: $15M Indodax: $22M Lykke: $22M BingX: $45M BitForex: $56M BtcTurk: $90M WazirX: $230M DMM Bitcoin: $305M' Source: hacked.slowmist.io/?c=Exchange

➡️Multiple U.S. states considering Strategic Bitcoin Reserves - CNBC

El Salvador is just 2.23 BTC away from holding 6000 bitcoin in its Strategic ReserveLike a boss, El Salvador continued adding one BTC per day to our Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And we are still so early ...

➡️Malaysia’s largest bank says when the US establishes Bitcoin Reserves, other countries will follow with increasing demand.

On the 26th of December: ➡️Thailand has backed a pilot scheme proposed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra to introduce Bitcoin payments at a tourist center in Phuket, Thailand.

➡️Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expresses uncertainty about implementing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, citing a lack of information on the US and other countries' plans.

➡️Another public company launches a Bitcoin treasury allocating 90% of their cash. Public company KULR buys 217.18 Bitcoin for $21 million for its Bitcoin Treasury strategy.

➡️Bitcoin mining (from otherwise wasted hydropower) is now 18% of all Ethiopian Electric Power’s revenue. The country has turned excess hydroelectric power into a profitable asset by powering Bitcoin mining operations, earning $1B in revenue last year. The move is drawing global investors who benefit from the country's low energy costs, and it's an example of how sustainable energy can drive economic growth across Africa. Source: www.crypto-news-flash.com/ethiopias-dam-powers-18-revenue-through-bitcoin-mining

On the 27th of December

➡️Daniel Batten: 'In addition to 13 peer-reviewed academic papers, there are now 8 sustainability magazines covering the fast-growing story of how Bitcoin is supporting sustainable energy development and climate action. They are: x.com/DSBatten/status/1872475284319949035 Great thread and articles/papers! Must read.

➡️Bitcoin is being quietly acquired by whales through private transactions, per CryptoQuant. The number of CoinJoin transactions has tripled over two years, with many attributing the surge to legitimate investment.

➡️Over 60 public companies now hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. (foto) '14,400 BTC taken off exchanges today. This will keep happening until the liquid supply is gone. When that happens you better be done stacking.' - Bitcoin For Freedom.

➡️$5 billion Bitwise files for Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF.

➡️IRS rules demand brokers report digital asset transactions, including decentralized exchanges from 2027.

On the 28th of December: ➡️ProShares files for ETFs tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and gold—denominated in Bitcoin. These ETFs take long positions in stocks or gold while using Bitcoin futures to short USD and go long on BTC, making them essentially Bitcoin-hedged ETFs. Nate Geraci: 'ETF filings last 48hrs… -Strive Btc Bond ETF -Bitwise Btc Standard Corporations ETF -REX Btc Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF -ProShares Btc hedged ETFs on S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, & gold 2025 is gonna be wild' This is de facto how BTC is going to scale to a billion users.

On the 29th of December: ➡️Bitcoin vs. Gold ETFs in 2024: •Bitcoin: $36.8 billion in net flows •Gold: $454 million in net flows Bitcoin is demonetizing gold in real-time. (foto)

On the 30th of December: ➡️This year's investor letter from Stone Ridge did not disappoint. One of the best investor newsletters I've read in a long time. www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2024-investor-letter This year's investor letter from Stone Ridge did not disappoint. One of the best investor newsletters I've read in a long time. (foto) 'NYDIG is about to unlock one of the largest investable pools of capital in the entire financial system—insurance float—and channel it into Bitcoin-backed loans. This is a big deal. More efficient lending → lower loan costs → less BTC sold → increased scarcity → higher demand and price → stronger institutional interest → accelerated Bitcoin adoption.' - Sam Callahan ➡️Tether buys 7,629 Bitcoin worth $705 million for its reserves and now owns $7.7 billion in Bitcoin.

➡️'According to Luke Dash Jr's estimates of unreachable / non-listening node counts, the total number of Bitcoin nodes rose 49% from 65,000 to 96,852 during 2024.' - Jameson Lopp The number of publicly reachable computers running Bitcoin blockchain software increased by 19% this year. This is very important! Noderunners!

➡️MicroStrategy has acquired 2,138 BTC for ~$209 million at ~$97,837 per bitcoin and has achieved a BTC Yield of 47.8% QTD and 74.1% YTD. As of 12/29/2024, they hodl 446,400 Bitcoin acquired for ~$27.9 billion at ~$62,428 per Bitcoin.

On the 31st of December: ➡️A Swiss initiative to include Bitcoin in the constitution has advanced to the review stage in the Feuille fédérale, the official publication for legislative texts and government decisions.

➡️New record bitcoin network computing hashrate: 800,000,000,000,000,000,000x per second.

➡️Bitcoin miners earned $15B in revenue in 2024. This assumes they instantly sell for fiat, which is not the case - miners tend to be HODLers.

➡️Bitcoin Returns since 2010... (foto) "Only" +120% this year, 5x the returns of the S&P 500.

➡️Bhutan now likely holds more Bitcoin per capita than any other country on Earth.

➡️$1.5 trillion Franklin Templeton says "We expect to see strategic Bitcoin reserves added by several nations" in 2025.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 26th of December: 👉🏽'The US stock market is becoming even more concentrated: The top 10 stocks now reflect a record 40% of the S&P 500's market cap. This percentage now exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com bubble levels by ~14 percentage points. In 2024, these stocks have added over $7 TRILLION in market cap and are now worth a record $20.9 trillion. To put this into perspective, the entire European stock market is worth ~$16 trillion, or $4.9 trillion LESS. The market's rally is not broadening.' -TKL

🏦Banks: 👉 no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 24th of December: 👉🏽'US existing home sales are set to close at 4.04 million in 2024, marking the worst year since 1995. Sales are set to be even lower than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The lack of demand for existing homes comes as home prices have jumped over 50% since 2020. Over the same period, mortgage rates have nearly TRIPLED, making affordability even worse. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage is up 100 basis points since September alone, to 7.1%, despite the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points. The US housing market is frozen.' -TKL

On the 25th of December: 👉🏽Javier Milei announces a structural tax reform that will eliminate 90% of taxes in Argentina.

👉🏽 China withdrew $158 billion from its financial system through its MLF tool (Medium-Term lending facility), the largest liquidity removal in a decade.

On the 26th of December: 👉🏽“Brussels started a department to look for €60M in savings. Its operational costs so far are €30M.” The most EU thing I've ever seen. The worst part? The government can only grow in its current form, which means it will only become bigger and more expensive. Inefficiency in government. A lot of inefficiency, with more and more regulations and no contributing productivity. Welcome to how Western governments function.

Remember the report from Oxfam International two months ago? "Up to $41 billion in World Bank climate finance unaccounted for.". Remember how the Pentagon fails 7th audit in a row, unable to fully account for the $ 842B budget.

But hey, Bitcoin is just made-up money, right?

👉🏽'The 10-year note yield is now up 100 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began in September. In other words, while the Fed has CUT rates by 100 bps, rates in the market have RISEN by 100 bps.' -TKL “As a result, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage in the United States is now at 7.10%. To put this into perspective, just 3 months ago the average rate bottomed at 6.15%. Buying the median-priced home at $420,400 now costs an average of ~$400 more PER MONTH.” The disconnect between the Fed and what's going on in the bond market is ridiculous. Never in the last 40 years has the 10-year Treasury risen more quickly after the Fed started a rate-cutting cycle. The housing market pays the price (read the first point in this segment)

👉🏽New Chinese $137B river dam project in Tibet, 3x the size of Three Gorges for 300 million people. $137B honestly sounds like a small amount after hearing how much the US spends on foreign wars. They've given Ukraine $183B to date. One war in Ukraine or one dam that generates enough electricity to power your entire country? The environmental destruction will be irreversible and will affect the entire planet. The Chinese see our planet as a commodity and a resource that needs to be exploited. Arnaud Bertrand: 'China just approved yet another project of an unfathomable scale: a mega-dam that will generate 3 times more power than the Three Gorges, enough to meet the annual needs of over 300m people, the equivalent of the entire US population. scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3292267/china-approves-tibet-mega-dam-could-generate-3-times-more-power-three-gorges… The project will cost an insane 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) to build and will be located on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet autonomous region, which carves out the deepest canyon on Earth.'

On the 29th of December: 👉🏽'Germany, France, and Italy, the three largest economies in Europe have been stagnating for years. Grotesque overregulation, lack of innovation, and left redistribution mindset replacing hard work & entrepreneurial spirit have their price. What needs to happen for Europe to grow again?' -Michael A. Arouet The EU is destroying the European economy. 'Sixteen years ago, the US and EU economies were nearly equal in size. Today, the US economy is 50% larger than the EU. Europe is being strangled by the EU and its Commission President von der Leyen's red tape.'- Steve Hanke (foto)

On the 31st of December: 👉🏽'Global corporate debt issuance jumped ~34% year-over-year to a record $7.9 trillion in 2024. Global corporate debt sales have DOUBLED over the last 12 years. Issuances have now surpassed the previous record of $7.2 trillion in 2021. This comes as historically low corporate bond spreads have fueled massive issuance activity. Furthermore, the average US investment-grade bond spread has fallen to just 0.77 percentage points in early December. This market the tightest spread since the late 1990s, according to Ice BofA data.' -TKL The only thing I am wondering is who is buying corporate debt when you can get 5% in a money market? Or just buy Bitcoin😉

👉🏽Total US debt is up 30%, or $8.5 trillion since Biden's inauguration, to $36.2 trillion.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Some fountain of Jeff Booth's wisdom: Repricing the World in Bitcoin

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Use the code BITCOINFRIDAY

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe -Bitcoin Friday!

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@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

Bitcoin is freedom of speech in the language of money.

'The five stages of a No-Coiner:

1. Denial (most people are here)

2. Anger (Peter Schiff)

3. Bargaining (Shitcoiners)

4. Depression (Rekt shit-coiners)

5. Acceptance (Bitcoiner)' - Bitcoin for Freedom

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

On the 31st of December:

➡️Impressive growth for Unchained in securing Bitcoin for clients. $9.5 billion financial services company Unchained helped its clients secure over 100,000 Bitcoin in 2024.

➡️'ETH/BTC is down 30% this year—the "world computer" needs a new narrative quickly, otherwise, it's going to fall another 100%.' -Joe Consorti

➡️'Since the beginning of Q4, treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 47.8%, a net benefit of 120,600 BTC to our shareholders. At $96K per BTC, that equates to $11.6 billion for the quarter.' - Michael Saylor

On the 1st of January:

➡️BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 2% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist.

➡️MicroStrategy is now down 47% since hitting an all-time high 6 weeks ago.

➡️'$793M worth of Bitcoin was transferred from MicroStrategy-linked Coinbase Prime Custody addresses to unknown wallets, according to Arkham Intelligence.' -Bitcoin News

➡️We start the year with a new low on Bitcoin on exchanges, and 30k Bitcoin withdrew in the last 24 hours.

➡️Daniel Batten: 'Little known fact: The World's largest Sovereign Fund (Government Pension Fund Global, Norway) already has significant Bitcoin exposure. The fund has invested $217 million in MicroStrategy, tripling its allocation between Aug 2023 and Aug 2024. Expect more of this in 2025.'

➡️New research paper published:

https://www.cetjournal.it/cet/24/114/061.pdf

TL;DR: Pairing Bitcoin mining and Green Hydrogen can: accelerate the build-out of solar and wind capacity boost capacity for negative emission technologies, capturing >7.4 t CO2e per Bitcoin

➡️Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin reveals that the company currently has 10% of its portfolio in gold and that it could increase its holdings in Bitcoin, but probably below 5%.

➡️Hong Kong-listed company Yuxing buys 78.2 Bitcoin for $6.3 million.

➡️2024 is in the books, and the results are clear:

Bitcoin topped the charts again, outperforming every major asset class for the year. Investment returns last year:

Bitcoin: +121%

Gold: +27%

NASDAQ: +26%

S&P 500: +25%

Dow Jones: +13%

Emerging Markets: +6%

Cash: +5%

Real Estate: +5%

Commodities: +2%

Oil: +1%

US Bonds: +1%

Again Bitcoin is at the top. There is no second best.

By simply buying and holding Bitcoin, you outperformed 99.99% of all financial institutions on planet Earth in 2024, without hidden fees and bullshit.

On the 2nd of January:

➡️Billionaire investor Ray Dalio recommends Bitcoin as 'hard money' amid national debt increases, per the Block.

Recently I have seen a Ray Dalio interview. He owns Bitcoin, but he still doesn't understand some basic concepts. Oh well, Gradually then suddenly. Ray Dalio: "I want to steer away from debt assets like bonds and debt, and have some hard money like gold and Bitcoin."

➡️FORBES: Bitcoin mining in Africa “has shown to provide the much-needed revenue to boost electricity infrastructure development, create jobs, sustainably electrify rural communities, and catalyze green energy production.”

➡️The Oxford English Dictionary added the word "satoshi'.

➡️Fold announces up to $30M in convertible note financing, backed by Bitcoin, to fuel growth and fast-track product development.

On the 3rd of January:

➡️On this day 16 years ago Bitcoin went online! Happy Bitcoin Genesis Block Day! This block is unspendable. Satoshi also waited 6 days before mining block #2 so others had time to join the network.

Now that Bitcoin has existed for 16 years! Lindy effect says that Bitcoin would at least exist for another 16 years.

January 3, 2009. Satoshi undermines block 0 on a difficulty 1 CPU and incorporates into the Genesis Block hexadecimal code base the headline of that day’s Times “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks”. The bank bailout plan ‘cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the GFC.

Since that day, the network has grown dramatically. Now, millions of people all over earth use Bitcoin. And while it’s great to hear that other countries like El Salvador, Bhutan, and others are embracing Bitcoin, I can’t help but wish my own country 🇳🇱 was embracing Bitcoin too.

Tick tick, next block without fail, Bitcoin continues to provide us with the most significant tool for freedom of speech and monetary sovereignty in the digital age!

Bitcoin is about financial inclusion and economic empowerment.🎯

Bitcoin is secured by the most powerful computing network in the world!🧡

Which leads me to the following.

➡️Just like with other emerging tech, perspectives evolve. Fascinating to see that finally, the vast majority of academic papers are recognizing the benefits of Bitcoin Mining.

Daniel Batten: "87.5% of contemporary peer-reviewed literature on Bitcoin and energy highlight Bitcoin mining having significant, scaleable environmental benefits This shift in scientific consensus follows the same trend as that of other nascent technologies, where first-generation research is superseded by more nuanced work based on better understanding, more case studies, and improved data."

Here you can find the list of those 14 of the last 16 peer review academic papers: https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1874858383523618887

➡️Another one, a scientific paper suggests that Bitcoin could function as a safe haven in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes.

"We find that Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc function as safe havens in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes while Gold and Treasury bonds do not. [...] the protective aspects [...] mainly show through large stock market moves."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612324015721#:~:text=Using%20S%26P%20500%20and%20GPR,and%20Treasury%20bonds%20do%20not

➡️Eric Balchunas: "IBIT with its biggest outflow day ever yesterday with $332m, about 0.7% of the total aum. It's so over.."

We had a good run everyone. haha

➡️If you were hoping to see evidence for how simple it can be to do Bitcoin right… here you go. Just buy and hold. Believe me, please read the post/thread:

https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1874978781200588838

➡️Bitcoin's network hashrate increased by 56% in 2024, from 512 to 800 exahash per second.

➡️ Chinese auto-trading platform Cango Inc. now holds 933.8 Bitcoin. The company increased Bitcoin mining production by 56% in December, producing 569.9 BTC.

➡️'Bitcoin's UTXO set grew from 153.4M to 186.4M during 2024, adding 1 net additional UTXO per second.' - Jameson Lopp

On the 4th of January:

➡️'Unredacted FDIC documents reveal coordinated efforts to restrict Bitcoin activities under Operation Chokepoint 2.0, exposing systemic discrimination against the industry.' TFTC

Ridiculous actions were taken with intent over the last few years. We all knew it. I am not surprised at all.

➡️The Bitcoin network finalized more than $19 trillion worth of BTC transactions in 2024. More than double the $8.7 trillion settled over the network in 2023 - reversing two years of declining transaction volume since 2021. Decisively proving that Bitcoin is both a store of value and a medium of exchange.

On the 5th of January:

➡️The largest Bitcoin mine in the world is nearing completion. Riot Blockchain’s new facility is under construction in Corsicana Texas, which, once fully developed, will be powered by 1 gigawatt in total mining capacity.

➡️Ffs nothing learned from 2022, ahumm FTX ahuhmm Celcius.

'One of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms in the U.S., MARA, has lent 7,377 BTC to third parties to generate yield, representing approximately 16% of its total reserves. These loans are “short-term arrangements with well-established third parties.” The long-term objective is to generate sufficient yield to offset operating expenses.'

Surely nobody has even gotten caught offsides rehypothecating their Bitcoin, right? Right!?!?!?

➡️Metaplanet is aiming to expand its Bitcoin holdings more than fivefold to 10,000 Bitcoin in 2025, says CEO Simon Gerovich.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 31st of December:

👉🏽Over $7.11 trillion was added to the US stock market in 2024.

👉🏽'The last time the top 10 stocks accounted for this much of the S&P 500, was just before the Great Depression in 1929…' - Geiger Capital The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are now almost 800 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock.

Not even the Great Depression in the 1930s saw market concentration this high. It's now 50% MORE concentrated than in 2001.

Yeah, it is bad (please watch the video as mentioned in last week's Weekly Recap - Luke Gromen & Preston Pysh). For now, the Fed especially Trump won't let a depression happen.

On the 2nd of January:

👉🏽The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 53 months, by far the longest in history.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽'no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 1st of January:

👉🏽Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, is now on the brink of a collapse. Energy shortages. Aging workers. A stagnating economy. What happened to Europe’s strongest economy—and what does it mean for the EU’s future?

(foto)

I have mentioned it multiple times here in the Weekly Recaps. Given its policy instability and lack of innovation support, Germany's decline is no surprise. I wouldn't call it a collapse though. What will be next? The AfD likely will win the upcoming elections. Will that help to rejuvenate their economy, I don't think so. But if they (current and past administrations) keep pushing the same tired policies expect more support for real change like the AfD. Don't get me wrong. Economic despair fuels AfD’s surge, while democracy’s legitimacy falters.

This isn’t just about one nation, it’s a global wake-up call.

👉🏽'U.S. Dollar is now the most overvalued in history according to Bank of America.' - Barchart

👉🏽Lagarde says the European Central Bank has a “big, heavy agenda for 2025” of bringing inflation down to 2% and continuing progress toward a CBDC. Full video aka.

The new Bitcoin marketing ad: https://x.com/Lagarde/status/1874380049442320773

Pardon my English, but these people are unelected psychopaths. Lagarde is almost 70 years old. Should monetary policy be set by people who don't understand the current & future economic trends that will rule society?

Digital Euro means slavery. Study the meaning of money to boycott with an alternative, Bitcoin! The honey badgers are on the move.

Oh and regarding that mysterious 2% inflation figure. Let's say you save $200 a month for 30 years in a savings account. Your total contributions over 30 years would be $72,000.

Here's how much buying power you would have left, if inflation was:

2%: $39,275

3%: $28 872

4%: $21,157

5%: $15,453

There is no reason we should have 2% inflation. Let alone the 4-8% inflation we had the last couple of years.

On the 2nd of January:

👉🏽We in Europe really fucked up. 'Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG' - Zero Hedge

They closed their nuclear reactors for this. Get woke, go broke. Oh, by the way, the Nordstream 2 pipeline incident has a clear winner, and it's not Ukraine or Russia.

👉🏽The EURO tumbles to the lowest level since 2022 amid ongoing concerns about Europe’s economy.

👉🏽

Dr. Jan Wüstenfeld: "Meanwhile, Bitcoin's supply growth rate is at 0.8%, and in 172,536 blocks, the newly issued Bitcoin per day will halve again, then halve again after another 210,000 blocks, and again and again. Choose wisely.

👉🏽Reserves at the Fed sink below $3 Trillion to the lowest since 2020. The Fed will end QT in March or April give or take a month. Especially with RRP running dry. Banking liquidity is getting too tight

👉🏽The Chinese Property Market has seen a total loss of $18 Trillion over the past 3 years, surpassing the losses suffered by the U.S. during the Global Financial Crisis.

👉🏽'The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years.

This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021. Such elevated deficits have never happened outside of wars and significant economic crises.

Furthermore, the deficit is estimated to hit 7.1% of GDP in 2025, the 3rd highest among the world's major economies, only behind India and China. Meanwhile, the budget gap for the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025 reached $624 BILLION, the largest on record. The US is on unsustainable fiscal path.' -TKL

On the 5th of January:

👉🏽'The US National Debt increased by $2.2 trillion in 2024, following increases of $2.6 trillion in 2023, $1.8 trillion in 2022, $1.9 trillion in 2021, and $4.5 trillion in 2020. How much will the National Debt increase in 2025?' - Charlie Bilello

On the 6th of January:

👉🏽Hedge Fund Manager Steve Diggle, who made $3 Billion during the Global Financial Crisis, has returned and compares the current market to what we saw from 2005-2007

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

What Bitcoin Did:

2024: BITCOIN IN REVIEW with HODL & ODELL

https://youtu.be/-tijL0iD5GI?si=Q7Xsy-mRg4UqxKe3

Good one!

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Use the code BITCOINFRIDAY

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe -Bitcoin Friday!

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@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

Event Recap

For the Official Stooki Sound Afterparty in Boulder, CO, I took the unconventional venue of a kitchen on The Hill and transformed it into an immersive environment for Toybox and Tesfa’s performances. The space was custom-mapped with projections that interacted seamlessly with the surroundings, turning the kitchen into a dynamic, visual landscape. I added retrofitted props to deepen the visual experience, giving the projections a multi-dimensional quality. This innovative approach created a unique atmosphere, enhancing the performance while blurring the lines between physical space and digital art.

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Event Photos

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Recap Video

nostr:naddr1qqrj6wpkx3u8qscpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejsygquk99txdv8dly7lsmasw969p70zlj6mnxtyzlk6j0em2tft4fyvgpsgqqqskas47n36f

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Other Immersive Experiences by Hes

Light Pollution [2015]

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All images are credit of Hes, but you are free to download and use for any purpose. If you find joy from my art, please feel free to send a zap. Enjoy life on a Bitcoin standard.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Zvanični vebsajt knjige

Srpski prevod knjige "The Little Bitcoin Book"

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Zašto je Bitkoin bitan za vašu slobodu, finansije i budućnost?

Verovatno ste čuli za Bitkoin u vestima ili da o njemu raspravljaju vaši prijatelji ili kolege. Kako to da se cena stalno menja? Da li je Bitkoin dobra investicija? Kako to uopšte ima vrednost? Zašto ljudi stalno govore o tome kao da će promeniti svet?

"Mala knjiga o Bitkoinu" govori o tome šta nije u redu sa današnjim novcem i zašto je Bitkoin izmišljen da obezbedi alternativu trenutnom sistemu. Jednostavnim rečima opisuje šta je Bitkoin, kako funkcioniše, zašto je vredan i kako utiče na individualnu slobodu i mogućnosti ljudi svuda - od Nigerije preko Filipina do Venecuele do Sjedinjenih Država. Ova knjiga takođe uključuje odeljak "Pitanja i odgovori" sa nekim od najčešće postavljanih pitanja o Bitkoinu.

Ako želite da saznate više o ovom novom obliku novca koji i dalje izaziva interesovanje i usvajanje širom sveta, onda je ova knjiga za vas.

@ dd664d5e:5633d319

Hodling Bitcoin does not make you a capitalist

I've noticed that Bitcoin-mindedness seems to lead some people to communistic thinking because it's a hard-limited form of capital. Marx, like most Bitcoiners, heavily discounted the possibility of economic growth or transformation changing the economy enough to undermine some minority's control of some form of capital.

What few today understand, is that many of the Dirty Capitalists of Marx's era actually agreed with him; they were just disdainful of labor and worried that the workers finding out that Marxism is correct about the nature of capitalism would cause unrest. They were the original HFSP crowd.

This was the basic idea, that Marx had, and that many Bitcoiners would agree with:

Capital is strictly limited and the people that control it can keep labor from attaining any, except when their labor is necessary.

And, as we know, automation will make human labor increasingly unnecessary.

The math doesn't check out

That underlies all of the calculations of "Well, if I just grab this Bitcoin wallet and hodl for twenty years, then it will grow in value to equal half of everything in existence and then I can just buy up half the planet and rule over everyone like a god."

This is economic nonsense because it assumes that: 1) the value of all things remains static over time, 2) purchasing something with money gives you ownership of it, 3) people will always use that specific money (or any money, at all!) for all transactions, 4) there is no such thing as opportunity cost, 5) people will always value money more than any other thing, and therefore be willing to always trade it for anything else, 6) humans are passive, defenseless, and easy to rule over, 7) someone who is preoccupied with hodling an asset steadily and sharply rising in price would ever be emotionally ready to part with it.

All monies can die.

People use money for everything because it is easy, fast and cheap. If money becomes too precious or scarce, they will simply switch to using other things (as we saw with gold). Humans replace tools that aren't working well, with those that work better, and money is just another tool. Bitcoin is more divisible than gold, but that won't matter, if enough of it is held by too few.

This is why there's a natural cap on the price of a money and why human productivity in the here and now is not irrelevant or in vain.

@ 2ed3596e:98b4cc78

Americans can now get paid in bitcoin sent directly to their personal bitcoin wallet. Share your Bitcoin Well Direct Deposit details with your employer (or anyone sending you money), set your bitcoin/dollar split and receive sats instead of fiat with every paycheck. 

Whenever you buy bitcoin with Bitcoin Well, we automatically send it to your self-custody wallet. Your bitcoin is safest in a self-custody wallet. 

So, when you set up your Direct Deposit with Bitcoin Well, you Dollar Cost Average bitcoin into your self-custody wallet with every paycheck. 

Refer at least 1 friend to Bitcoin Well to unlock Direct Deposit. Direct Deposit bitcoin purchases bring you a massive leap forward to replacing your bank with Bitcoin Well 🧡

Here’s how you can get paid in bitcoin:

Step 1: Refer a friend to Bitcoin Well

To unlock the Direct Deposit feature in your Bitcoin Well account you must first refer one person to Bitcoin Well. Referring a friend is quick and easy! Simply share your referral link from your found in your Referrals page.

\ Once someone has created an account with your referral link, you’ll get an email notifying you of your successful referral. You’ll receive a second email informing you that you have unlocked Direct Deposit. Now you’re ready for Step 2!

Step 2: Set your Direct Deposit details

\ Navigate to your newly unlocked Direct Deposit page in your Bitcoin Well account. Tell us how much bitcoin you want to receive, and how many dollars you want to keep with the slider at the top.

\ Next you need to tell us where to send your bitcoin by adding your personal bitcoin wallet! As with everything Bitcoin Well does, we send the bitcoin you buy from each deposit directly to your self-custody. Your bitcoin should always remain in your control; with your keys. 

Once these details are saved, you can download your Direct Deposit details in the form of a void cheque to send to your employer (or anyone else that wants to send you money!).

## \ Step 3: Withdraw remaining dollars or buy more bitcoin later

\ Remaining dollars in your Cash Balance can be withdrawn to your bank or used to purchase more bitcoin. Navigate to Withdraw Dollars then select your bank account, the amount of dollars you’d like to withdraw and confirm your withdrawal. 

\ You can buy more bitcoin with the dollars already in your account! Go to Buy bitcoin, select from ‘Cash Balance’ to ‘your bitcoin wallet’, enter the amount and confirm. More bitcoin is now on its way to your bitcoin wallet! Buying directly to self-custody has never been easier 😎

Earn sats for referring friends to Bitcoin Well

\ Did you know that referring friends doesn’t just unlock your Direct Deposit feature but you also earn sats? When you refer a friend to Bitcoin Well you earn 10% of our cut from all of the transactions. Every time you earn sats through your referrals, your rewards will be instantly distributed to you straight to your Lightning wallet.  Add your Lightning wallet in your Referrals page, within the Bitcoin Well Rewards menu. 

Within your Referrals page you can add your Lightning wallet for referral payouts, access your referral link and a QR code with your ref link in it – everything you need to orange pill your friends and earn sats! Plus every time you refer a friend you get Bitcoin Well points, which you can use to try and win 1,000,000 sats through our Bitcoin (Wishing) Well! Share your ref link with friends and family -> earn sats.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni rad

Jun 2018 / Autor: Aleksandar Radivojević

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APSTRAKT:

Kripto valute, kao pod kategorija virtuelnih valuta, predstavljaju nastavak inovacija zasnovanih na tehnološkom napretku na finansijskim tržištima. Ovaj put predmet inovacije je sam novac. Nagli porast interesovanja za ovu vrstu valuta u svetu uticao je na potrebu regulacije, pre svega na nacionalnom, a zatim i nadnacionalnom nivou. Međutim, problem pri regulaciji posledica je nekoliko faktora: nivo tehnološke kompleksnosti sistema kripto valuta, činjenica da se kripto valute tek nalaze u početnoj fazi razvoja, kao i činjenica da bi pogrešna regulacija mogla da dovede do potencijalnog tehnološkog zaostatka za drugim državama. Stoga ne čudi raznolikost u regulisanju istog fenomena od strane različitih država, u nekim slučajevima čak i potpuna suprotnost. Važno je napomenuti da kripto valute treba posmatrati kao inovaciju, odnosno fenomen koji je u razvoju. Shodno tome svaka kritika, pozitivna ili negativna, samo je kritika trenutnog koraka u procesu razvoja, pa je treba uzeti sa rezervom. U dugom roku kripto valute će napustiti nedefinisanu sferu i iskazati svoj potencijal i vrednost, tek tada ćemo sa sigurnošću moći da ocenimo njihov doprinos razvoju društva.

1. UVOD

Virtuelna valuta predstavlja valutu denominiranu u sopstvenoj jedinici mere iza koje ne stoji država niti bilo koji centralizovani autoritet, a čija se vrednost određuje na tržištu u čistom odnosu ponude i tražnje, bez uplitanja monetarnih vlasti.

Postoji nekoliko definicija virtuelnih valuta, pa tako Međunarodni monetarni fond (MMF) virtualnu valutu definiše kao „Digitalni predstavnik vrednosti, izdat od strane privatnih aktera i denominiran u sopstvenoj jedinici vrednosti“2. Evropska centralna banka (ECB) koristi sledeću definiciju „Digitalni predstavnik vrednosti, koji nije izdat od strane centralne banke, kreditne institucije ili institucije elektronskog novca, koji u nekim situacijama može biti korišćena kao zamena za novac“3. ECB je u odnosu na definiciju iz 2012. godine4 uvela dve promene. Izbačen je termin neregulisan, usled činjenice da su određene države regulisale virtuelne valute, ali još važnije ECB prema novoj definiciji ne definiše više virtuelne valute kao novac.

Upravo ove dve promene u definiciji ECB ukazuju na trenutno najznačajnija pitanja vezana za virtuelne valute, pitanje regulacije i pitanje klasifikacije ovih valuta kao novac ili finansijsku imovinu.

Karakteristike pojedinačnih virtuelnih valuta klasifikuju ih u podgrupe. Neke od njih postoje već duži niz godina bez ikakvih potreba regulacije, usled činjenice da njihov uticaj na globalnu ekonomiju nije značajan. Uticaj kripto valuta, kao jedne od potkategorija, postao je toliki da zahteva uključivanje kreatora ekonomskih politika u njihovo regulisanje. Bilo da ograniči ili podstakne njihovu upotrebu.

U osnovi, kripto valute u potpunosti preispituju sistem monetarnog funkcionisanja zasnovanog na fiducijarnom novcu iza čije vrednosti stoji država ili određeni viši centralizovani autoritet. Kako iza virtuelne valute ne stoji država, a sistem funkcionisanja je zasnovan na kompleksnoj tehnologiji, postavlja se pitanje uloge centralne banke, komercijalnih banaka i ostalih finansijskih institucija koje su u poslednjih nekoliko decenije bili dominantni akteri finansijskog sektora.

2. BITKOIN

Bitkoin predstavlja kripto valutu koja je pokretač i nosilac trenutnog stanja na tržištu kripto valuta sa učešćem od preko 40%. Prema karakteristikama virtuelnih valuta ovu kripto valutu svrstavamo u potpuno decentralizovanu i konvertibilnu, a njena ukupna, buduća, ponuda je unapred određena. Nastanak bitkoina vezuje se za članak koji je objavljen od strane autora pod pseudonimom Satoši Nakamoto 2008. godine pod nazivom „Bitkoin – Elektronski sistem gotovine između jednakih“. Satoši Nakamoto, za sada nepoznati pojedinac ili grupa pojedinaca, 2009. godine pustio je u promet prvi bitkoin softver i prve jedinice valute. S obzirom da se radi o tehnologiji baziranoj na otvorenom kodu (open source technology) sistem je nastavio da radi bez potrebe uključivanja njegovog osnivača.

Ukupna tržišna vrednost bitkoin valute u trećem kvartalu 2017. godine iznosila je 75 milijardi dolara, taj iznos je početkom 2018. godine dostigao 232 milijarde dolara, dok je početkom juna 2018. godine on iznosio 115 milijardi. U poređenju sa monetarnim agregatima dominantnih fiducijarnih valuta ovaj iznos nije značajan ( EUR M3 11804 milijardi5, USD M3 13701 milijardi6). Međutim bitkoin posmatramo kao novi fenomen koji beleži snažni rast (tržišna vrednost na kraju 2016. godine iznosila je 15,5 milijardi dolara).

Celokupni proces koji stoji iza kreiranja, transfera, čuvanja i trošenja virtualne valute obavlja se elektronski. Osnovni elementi sistema svake virtualne valute jesu sama valuta (Bitkoin, Ethereum, itd.) i tehnologija beleženja i sprovođenja transakcija. Mehanizam na osnovu koga funkcioniše određena valuta definiše i sprovodi: izdavanje valute; sprovođenje internih pravila koja su osnova funkcionisanja valute; transfer novca i poravnanja. Mehanizam na osnovu kojeg funkcionišu kripto valute jeste decentralizovani mehanizam koji koristi kriptografiju (šifrovanje) u obavljanju ovih funkcija.

Decentralizovani mehanizam podrazumeva da ne postoji centralna jedinica koja izdaje novac, vrši proveru i realizaciju plaćanja, poravnanja, itd., već se ove funkcije sprovode od strane većeg broja nezavisnih jedinica (pojedinaca, udruženja ili kompanija). Ove jedinice zovu se „rudari“ (miners) i oni svojim uključivanjem u online mrežu virtualne valute obavljaju ove aktivnosti koristeći kapacitete svoje računarske opreme. Rudari su pojedinci ili kompanije raspoređeni po celom svetu koji ovu aktivnost obavljaju u cilju dobijanja vlasništva nad novim jedinicama kripto valute. Ovako decentralizovani sistem koji stoji iza obrade transakcija eliminiše mogućnost ljudske greške koja je prisutna u bankama i ostalim finansijskim institucijama. Naime, da bi pojedinac ili grupa pojedinaca promenila bilo koju informaciju u sistemu mora raspolagati sa 51% računarskog kapaciteta koji stoji iza mreže, što je skoro neizvodljivo.

Neophodan element sistema kripto valuta jeste digitalni novčanik (wallet) koji predstavlja softver koji čuva informacije o količini i iznosu kripto valuta koje su u posedu vlasnika novčanika. Korišćenje bilo koje kripto valute podrazumeva prethodno registrovanje novčanika. Pružaoci usluga novčanika su privatne firme koje funkcionišu u sistemu kripto valuta pa je ovaj deo sistema u određenoj meri rizičan, jer se informacije o vlasništvu nad kripto valutom mogu izgubiti lošim upravljanjem kompanije koja pruža usluge ili tehnološkim rizicima kojima je ona izložena7.

Jedan od najinteresantnijih i najznačajnijih elemenata sistema kripto valuta jeste „lanac blokova“ (blockchain) koji predstavlja decentralizovanu bazu podataka sačinjenu od manjih baza (blokova) koji su digitalno povezani na mreži. Ovi blokovi sadrže informacije o transakcijama koje se kriptografski generišu u jedan blok koji se zatim povezuje sa ostalim već generisanim blokovima koji sadrže prethodne informacije. Celokupna procedura na kojoj je zasnovan blockchain onemogućava bilo kakvu promenu informacija u bloku, jer su blokovi međusobno povezani kodom, pa je za promenu podataka potrebno hakovati ceo lanac blokova.

Bitkoin, ostale kripto valute, njihov značaj u budućnosti i primena i dalje su pod znakom pitanja. Međutim, isto se ne može reći za blockchain tehnologiju. Ova tehnologija i njene moguće primene već su zainteresovale veliki broj značajnih aktera na tržištu, pa i država. Goldman Sachs je još u 2015. godini prijavio i registrovao patent za sistem virtuelnog poravnanja finansijskih transakcija koje će u velikoj meri olakšati bankarske transakcije, a koji je upravo zasnovan na blockchain tehnologiji. Blockchain tehnologija nije ograničena samo na finansije. Nepromenljivost informacija čini tehnologiju primenljivom i u drugim sferama. Švedska je najdalje otišla u primeni ove tehnologije, a planovi za primenu u imovinskim transakcijama i katastru su već u toku. Primene ove tehnologije su višestruke i rast njene zastupljenosti u različitim sferama se može očekivati u budućnosti.

3. POTREBA REGULACIJE

Navedene osobine kripto valuta prikazane na primeru najpopularnije valute, bitkoin-a, ukazuju na složenost problema njihove regulacije. Reč je o globalnom fenomenu u čijoj dosadašnjoj regulaciji pojedinačne zemlje ne samo da nemaju zajednički stav, već se ti stavovi u pojedinim slučajevima potpuno razlikuju. Pored toga, na nacionalnom nivou postavlja se pitanje nadležnosti regulacije, s obzirom da još uvek postoji nerazumevanje da li je reč o valuti ili imovini i koji deo sistema treba regulisati (transakciju, vlasnika, posrednika, prodavca,..). Tehnološki faktori takođe utiču na mogućnosti regulacije, usled teškoća u praćenju operacija sa virtuelnim valutama.

Dinamičan rast trgovine virtuelnim valutama u poslednjih godinu dana uticao je i na sve veći broj pokušaja regulacije od strane pojedinačnih država, ali i na rast zahteva za usaglašavanjem i regulacijom na međunarodnom nivou. Dosadašnji načini regulacije u velikoj meri su različiti od zemlje do zemlje. Većina zemalja izdala je upozorenje potrošačima, a neke od zemalja odlučile su se i za nametanje zahteva za izdavanje dozvola za određene učesnike na tržištu, dok je jedan broj zemalja potpuno zabranio upotrebu valuta.

Osnovni rizici koje kripto valute i rast njihove popularnosti i upotrebe sa sobom nose posledično definišu načine regulacije. Ti rizici jesu finansiranje terorizma, pranje novca, izbegavanje poreza, neregulisano kretanje kapitala, zaštita potrošača, itd. Pored toga, karakteristike mehanizma koji pokreće sistem, odnosno akteri i njihove međusobne veze, drugi su osnovni faktor koji definiše način regulacije. Stoga su dosadašnje regulative najčešće bile usmerene na učesnike u trgovini kripto valutama i finansijske institucije koje sa njima posluju.

Transakcije između korisnika virtuelne valute nije moguće regulisati, usled činjenice da je jedan od osnovnih principa virtuelnih valuta upravo anonimnost vlasništva. Međutim kompanije koje prihvataju plaćanje za svoje usluge ili dobra u virtuelnim valutama mogu biti predmet regulacije. Takođe, mada transakcije među vlasnicima valuta jesu anonimne, konverzija virtuelnih valuta u fiducijarne valute najčešće se sprovodi preko posrednika, koji može biti, i za sada u velikom broju slučajeva i jeste, predmet regulacije. U primeru Srbije, kupovina virtuelne valute vrši se preko posrednika, koji za svoje usluge uzima naknadu od 4-7% po transakciji.

Za sada, ove kompanije predstavljaju očigledne ciljeve regulacije. Određene zemlje regulišu i pružaoce „novčanik“ servisa, jer su oni neophodni činioci sistema virtuelnih valuta. Razlog za ovo jeste trenutni, ali u budućnosti možda i izraženiji, odnos obima transakcija između vlasnika kripto valuta (koji je anoniman) i transakcija vlasnika valuta i pružaoca usluga i dobara za te valute (prodavaca). Regulacija kroz pružaoce usluga „novčanika“ nije česta usled činjenice da se ona odnosi na regulacije između učesnika bez konverzije virtuelnih valuta u realnu ekonomiju (dobra, usluge ili fiducijarne valute).

Ubrzan razvoj virtuelnih valuta izazvao je brzu potrebu regulacije, pa su se određene države odlučile za unilateralne regulacije na sopstvenom tržištu, dok je za međunarodni konsenzus i regulaciju potrebno vreme. Međunarodna regulacija biće postepena iz više razloga. Pre svega reč je o promenljivom fenomenu pa shodno tome nije moguće odlučiti se za konkretnu trajnu regulaciju pre sagledavanja i razumevanja celokupnog fenomena. Dodatno, različite države drugačije sagledavaju ovaj fenomen i njegov potencijal. Dok neke države zabranjuju njegovu upotrebu (Kina) druge je u potpunosti podržavaju (Australija, Kanada, itd.).

Razvoj virtuelnih valuta predstavlja revoluciju na valutnom tržištu koja može imati značajan uticaj na celokupno funkcionisanje svetske ekonomije. Pri regulisanju potrebno je voditi računa da se primenom postojećih načina regulacije ne ograniči ili promeni smer ove inovacije.

Budući da virtuelne valute pružaju veću slobodu pojedincu, od njega zahtevaju i veću odgovornost. Naime, transakcija za određenu robu (primer kupovina preko interneta) beleži se putem blockchain-a i u tom trenutku je finalna. Plaćanje tim putem na pogrešan račun tradicionalni sistem rešava zahtevom za povraćaj novca sa jednog računa na drugi u okviru komercijalne banke, odnosno korigovanje u procesu poravnanja. Sistem plaćanja virtuelnim valutama nema ovu mogućnost, usled činjenice da nema centralnog regulatora koji može izvršiti promenu i činjenice da je vlasništvo nad računom anonimno.

Još jedan rizik je kvar sistema na kome su virtualne valute bazirane. Do kvara može doći usled tehnoloških problema sa kojima se suočava sama mreža, pružaoci usluga „novčanika“ ili platforma za trgovinu virtuelnim valutama. Mada stvarni i potencijalno veoma opasni, ovi rizici svojstveni su i trenutnom sistemu pa tako može doći do „kvara“ samog finansijskog sistema, banaka (pružaoca usluga „novčanika“) ili berzi (platformi za trgovinu). Ove kvarove smo i pored regulacija već doživeli, a reakcija je bila podrška države sistemu u kvaru, pa bi u regulaciji kripto valuta trebalo razmotriti i snažniju podršku države u funkcionisanju osnova postojećeg sistema i stvaranju mreža zaštite u slučaju pojedinačnih kvarova aktera na mreži.

Jedina realna opasnost virtuelnih valuta u ovom trenutku jeste njihov neuspeh i krah investitora koji su uložili u njih, što ni u kom slučaju ne bi trebalo da bude pitanje kojim se kreatori ekonomske politike bave. Naime, krah investitora, pojedinaca i kompanija, u slučaju da se vremenom pokaže da kripto valute nemaju nikakvu vrednost, ne bi imao uticaj međunarodni finansijski sistem jer ne bi doveo do lančanog kraha osnovnih finansijskih institucija, kao što je slučaj bio sa krahom tržišta nekretnina 2008. godine. Većina zemalja koje su se do sada bavile pitanjem kripto valuta objavilo je saopštenja za javnost kojima se građanima ukazuje na potencijalne rizike korišćenja i ulaganja u ove valute. Slično obaveštenje objavila je i Narodna banka Srbije samo u užem obliku pozivajući se i usmeravajući građane na obaveštenja Evropske unije.

Jedan od najčešće pominjanih rizika široke rasprostranjenosti virtuelnih valuta jesu mogućnost finansiranja terorizma i pranje novca. Ovi rizici se pominju u skoro svima analizama uticaja kripto valuta, a njihova regulacija upravo predstavlja preteranu regulaciju koja ograničava inovacije. Sprečavanje finansiranja terorizma kontrolom finansija pojedinaca u okviru postojećeg sistema rezultat je prilike koju je način funkcionisanja sistema pružio institucijama koje su zadužene za nacionalnu sigurnost i borbu protiv terorizma. Uvođenje boljeg i efikasnijeg sistema ne treba biti ograničavano činjenicom da je prethodni sistem olakšavao određenim institucijama izvršavanje svojih dužnosti. Naprotiv, druge institucije bi trebalo da, umesto ograničavanja tehnološkog napretka u drugim sferama, podstiču napredak tehnologije u svom delovanju i traže načine za uspešnije obavljanje svojih dužnosti korišćenjem inovacija i novih sistema.

Ni fiducijarni ni virtuelni novac nemaju funkciju sprečavanja terorizma. Sloboda pojedinaca i anonimnost u raspolaganju sopstvenom imovinom trebalo bi da bude jedna od osnova demokratije pa je njeno regulisanje uskraćivanje ovih prava zarad drugog cilja. Sankcionisanje korišćenja imovine pojedinca ili kompanije za finansiranje terorizma treba biti sprovedeno od strane nadležnih institucija, uz pomoć finansijskog sistema ukoliko on pruža mogućnosti za to, ali ne ograničavanjem razvoja društva da bi se te mogućnosti zadržale.

Korišćenje kripto valuta, i anonimnost i lakoća transfera iz jedne u drugu državu koju one pružaju, takođe otežava borbu protiv izbegavanja oporezivanja sakrivanjem bogatstva i prihoda. Još jedan problem u oporezivanju jeste i šta se oporezuje – kripto valuta kao imovina ili novac. Jedno od trenutnih rešenja pri definisanju ovog pitanje jeste klasifikacija prema vremenu držanja valute. Odnosno, da li se valuta drži duži period u cilju sticanja kapitalne dobiti u slučaju porasta njene vrednosti ili se često koristi kao sredstvo plaćanja. Pitanje je i kako i po kojoj vrednosti oporezovati novo stvorenu valutu, dobijenu procesom „rudarenja“, da li po tržišnoj vrednosti u trenutku ostvarivanja prava na novu jedinicu valute (SAD) ili tek po vrednosti u trenutku prodaje te jedinica (Australija).

Takođe postoji rizik i da će razvijanje samog sistema blokchain-a uticati na smanjenje prihoda drugih finansijskih institucija kao što su berze, ali ovde je reč o riziku tehnološkog napretka na profitne kompanije koje zaostaju u razvoju i inovacijama i koje ni u kakvom slučaju ne bi trebalo regulacijom štiti od neuspeha na slobodnom tržištu.

Prvobitni fokus treba da bude na najhitnijim pitanjima vezanim za kripto valute, uključujući finansijski integritet, zaštitu potrošača/investitora i utaju poreza, uz istovremeno ostavljanje manje neposrednih rizika (na primer, finansijsku stabilnost, monetarnu politiku) za kasniju fazu. Pravi pristup regulaciji zavisiće od budućeg razvoja virtuelnih valuta, koji za sada nije predvidiv. Međutim, sam razvoj virtuelnih valuta zavisiće od sadašnje reguacije, pa je potrebno veoma pažljivo pristupiti regulaciji u cilju zaštite tržišta i građana od rizika, ali ne na uštrb ekonomskog napretka.

Za razliku od samih virtuelnih valuta primena blockchain mehanizma ne predstavlja problem regulatorima.

4. REGULACIJA U SVETU

Najliberalnija država na svetu po pitanju operacija sa bitkoinom i ostalim kripto valutama jeste Japan. Bitkoin je u Japanu definisan kao legalno sredstvo plaćanja što je dovelo do brzog rasta broja kompanija koje primaju bitkoin kao sredstvo plaćanja, kao i do brzog razvoja kompanija koje se bave razvojem blockchain tehnologije. Za razliku od nacionalne valute banke nemaju obavezu obavljanja operacija sa bitkoinom, ali je upotreba bitkoina neograničena ukoliko se strane u upotrebi o tome slažu. Kao zemlja sa najliberalnijom regulacijom i najvećim učešćem u ukupnoj trgovini na dnevnom nivou trgovina kripto valutama u Japanu je takođe najčešće bila meta značajnih hakerskih napada i krađa8.

Još jedna zemlja sa veoma liberalnim pogledom na ovu tehnologiju jeste Australija. Operacije sa bitkoinom i ostalim kripto valutama nisu ograničene, niti su ICO9 ograničene, ali se svaka pojedinačna ICO posmatra od strane države u cilju povećavanja sigurnosti i smanjivanja rizika. Poreska politika bitkoin i ostale slične valute posmatra kao imovinu, i na osnovu toga definiše kapitalnu dobit u zavisnosti od operacija sa ovom imovinom10.

Predsednik Belorusije koga mnogi nazivaju poslednjim evropskim diktatorom, Aleksandar Lukašenko, potpisao je krajem decembra 2017. godine zakon čijim je stupanjem na snagu, krajem marta 2018. godine, regulisano poslovanje sa kripto valutama. Preduzeća u skladu sa ovim zakonom mogu da kreiraju svoje kripto valute, poseduju druge kripto valute i vrše sve operacije sa njima isključivo preko berzi kripto valuta. Građani mogu slobodno da obavljaju aktivnosti „rudara“, da kupuju, prodaju i menjaju kripto valute, kao i da ih kupuju i prodaju za beloruske rublje. Ostvareni profit od svih ovih operacija neće biti oporezivan sve do januara 2023 godine, niti će se aktivnosti rudarenja i trgovanja kripto valuta smatrati preduzetničkim poduhvatom11. Ovaj zakon posebnu pažnju posvećuje blokchain tehnologiji pa se aktivnosti zasnovane na ovoj tehnologiji posebno oporezuju. Ova preduzeća biće oslobođena poreza na dobit i poreza na dodatu vrednost. Umesto toga plaćaće porez u iznosu od 1% ukupnog prihoda.

Rusija je početkom 2018. godine predstavila nacrt zakona kojim će biti regulisane operacije sa kripto valutama12. Mada zakon definiše kripto valute kao imovinu, a ne kao novac, njegove odredbe pomak su ka razvoju kripto valuta, s obzirom da su informacije o regulaciji kripto valuta od strane ruskih vlasti u prethodnom period bile pre svega usmerene ka potpunoj zabrani operacija sa ovim valutama. Trgovina kripto valutama kao imovinom, međutim, najverovatnije neće biti podložna porezu na dodatu vrednost s obzirom da će se suštinski posmatrati kao finansijska imovina. U poslednje vreme se sve više i govori i o aktivnostima ruskih vlasti ka kreiranju državne kripto valute – kriptorublje13. Trenutno je nepoznato da li će ova valuta, ukoliko bude kreirana, biti jedna od dozvoljenih kripto valuta na ruskom tržištu ili jedina dozvoljena, ali njeno eventualno kreiranje će svakako biti pomak u razvoju kripto valuta.

Vlada Kanade je prva zemlja koja je formalno regulisala digitalne valute, u junu 2014. godine. Bitkoin definiše kao elektronski novac koji građani mogu koristiti kao sredstvo plaćanja u kompanijama koje to sredstvo prihvataju. Takođe, dozvoljena je kupovina i prodaja bitkoina kao finansijske imovine u cilju ostvarivanja zarade. Sa druge strane bitkoin nije zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja, pa je time njegova upotreba ograničena u kompanijama koje prihvataju da svoje usluge ili robu prodaju za tu kripto valutu. Poreska regulacija transakcija u bitkoin-u ista je kao i za transakcije u nacionalnoj valuti. Sve poreske obaveze nastale iz promene vlasništva bitkoina podložne su već postojećim poreskim obligacijama. Takođe, svaki gubitak ili dobitak od trgovine bitkoinom kao finansijskom imovinom mora biti prijavljen pri obračunu poreza na dohodak građana14.

Sjedinjene Američke Države prepustile su svakoj državi u okviru svog sastava da odrede kako će njihovi građani moći da učestvuju u operacijama sa kripto valutama. Na nivou nacije regulacija definiše virtualne valute kao imovinu i obavezuje građane da prijave ostvareni profit na osnovu operacija sa virtualnim valutama poreskoj administraciji15. Različite državne agencije takođe regulišu u određenoj meri operacije sa kripto valutama koje su u njihovoj nadležnosti, ne regulišući same kripto valute već operacije sa njima koje nisu dozvoljene. Pa tako Mreža za primenu regulacija u oblasti finansijskog kriminala (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network - FinCEN) kao deo Ministarstva finansija SAD nalaže svim berzama koje trguju kripto valutama i drugim kompanijama koje se bave operacijama sa kripto valutama da se registruju kao kompanije koje se bave prenosom ili konverzijom novca i time budu regulisane Zakonom o sigurnosti bankarskog sistema.

Regulacija u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu je u toku i u ovom slučaju je najpre usmerena ka rešavanju problema koje popularizacija ovih valuta donosi u oblasti borbe protiv terorizma i pranja novca. U skladu sa time pre svega će biti regulisane platforme za trgovinu valutama i kompanije koje pružaju usluge virtuelnih novčanika u okviru direktiva za suzbijanje pranja novca i finansiranje terorizma16.

Evropska unija kao celina nije jasno regulisala kripto valute. Usaglašavanje većeg broja zemalja oko regulisanja pojma koji se i dalje razvija i koji i dalje nema jasnu definiciju zahteva određeno vreme i iskustvo, ali aktivnosti pojedinačnih zemalja EU povodom ovog pitanja mogu nam ukazati na pravac razvoja kripto valuta i tehnologija koje stoje iza njih u EU u budućnosti. Početkom 2018. godine francuski ministar finansija najavio je formiranje radne grupe čiji ce cilj biti definisanje regulatornih normi kriptov valuta. Estonija je već zatražila od EU komentar na pokretanje ICO za sopstvenu kripto valutu estcoin, što je možda moglo biti i očekivao od države sa veoma razvijenim digitalnim društvom i e-upravom. Članovi Nacionalne banke Finske objavili su septembru 2017. godine istraživački dokument17 u kome navode da ne postoji potreba za regulacijom bitkoina. U Nemačkoj nije doneta regulativa koja se odnosi na sam bitkoin i ostale kripto valute već se primenjuju već postojeće regulative na „sredstvo razmene“ kako je bitkoin definisan u Nemačkoj. Značajno je napomenuti da pri kupovini bitkoina za euro bitkoin mora biti uvećan za PDV, čime je njegova popularizacija donekle ograničena.

Švajcarska takođe nije posebno regulisala bitkoin niti je na bilo koji način ograničila njegovu upotrebu. Pored toga što su ovakvi uslovi doveli do razvoja kompanija koje se bave razvojem blockchain tehnologije, država je kroz stvaranje asocijacije18 ovih kompanija dodatno doprinela njihovom razvoju i pokazala svoj interes u daljem razvoju tehnologije koja stoji iza kripto valuta. U januaru 2018. godine Državni sekretarijat za međunarodna finansijska pitanja (SIF) uspostavio je radnu grupu za blockchain / ICO koja e pregledati zakonski okvir i identifikovati bilo kakvu potrebu za aktivnostima uz učeše Federalnog ureda pravde (FOJ), Švajcarskog nadzornog organa za finansijsko tržište (FINMA)19.

Nasuprot ovim zemljama, koje regulisanjem ne zabranjuju upotrebu bitkoina, Narodna banka Kine je u septembru zabranila inicijalne ponude virtuelnih valuta (initaila coin offering - ICO)20 i donela odluku o zatvaranju domaćih berzi za prodaju bitkoina. Međutim, regulacijom nije zabranjeno „rudarenje“ novih jedinica postojećih valuta. Razlozi za ovakav stav Kine prema kripto valutama mogu se pronaći u jedinstvenim okolnostima u kojima je regulacija doneta. Naime, Kina se u trenutku regulacije nalazila u situaciji u kojoj se dominantan deo trgovine bitkinom obavlja od strane kineskih građana21, dve od tri kineske berze za trgovinu kripto valutama koje su zatvorene u trenutku donošenja regulacije (Bitfinex, OkCoin, i BTCC) zauzimale su drugo i treće mesto na svetu prema obimu trgovine kripto valutama22, a gore navedene regulacije u drugim zemljama u tom trenutku nisu bile donete. U takvim okolnostima Kina je morala da reguliše tržište kako ne bi došlo do ozbiljnijih ekonomskih posledica kao rezultat kombinacije navedenih faktora. Kako se kripto valute budu razvijale, a različiti oblici regulacije davali rezultate i preporuke za dalju regulaciju, možemo očekivati relaksaciju tržišta kripto valuta u Kini.

Indija još uvek nije regulisala kripto valute, ali sa primljenim iznosom doznaka u vrednosti od 72 milijarde dolara u 2015. godini23 predstavlja poseban izazov za regulatore jer bitkoin omogućuje nesmetan trenutni priliv doznaka iz virtuelnog novčanika pošiljaoca na račun primaoca potpuno netransparentno. Filipini kao zemlja koja se nalazi na trećem mestu liste sa 29 milijardi dolara primljenih kroz doznake u 2015. godini takođe su najavili regulaciju, posebno pri konverziji bitkoina u nacionalnu valutu.

U Srbiji su operacije sa Bitkoinom su slobodne i moguće je slobodno ih razmenjivati za dinare. Kao i većina zemalja Srbija (Narodna banka) je objavila upozorenje o upotrebi kripto valuta24 još u 2014. godini, pozivajući se na obaveštenja Evropske unije. Bitkoin je u Srbiji moguće slobodno razmenjivati za dinare. Za Srbiju je regulacija bitkoina važna i iz ugla primanja doznaka, čija je vrednost procenjena na 2 milijarde američkih dolara.

5. ZAKLJUČAK

Za sistem kripto valuta se ne može reći da predstavlja realnu opasnost, a da to ne bude zasnovano samo na pretpostavkama. Takođe, kao što smo već naveli, najveći deo kritika, kao što su finansiranje terorizma, izbegavanje poreza, itd., nisu realne kritike jer se ovim problemima bave institucije, a ne novac. Da je moguće vršiti aktivnosti borbe protiv ovih problema bez ograničavanja ili zabrane korišćenja kripto valuta pokazuje primer kažnjavanja kompanije BTC za pranje novca putem operacija sa kripto valutama u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, od strane državne agencije Mreža za primenu regulacija u oblasti finansijskog kriminala 25

U radu smo videli nekoliko načina regulacije kripto valuta u nekim od najrazvijenijih svetskih ekonomija. Neke od navedenih regulacija su iskazane formalno, dok je u nekim slučajevima regulacija izvršena jednostavnim prihvatanjem operacija sa kripto valutama. Nakon regulacija i prihvatanja operacija sa kripto valutama u ovim zemljama teško je verovati da će druge zemlje u bliskoj budućnosti moći da zabrane upotrebu i ograde se od tehnološkog razvoja zasnovanog na blockchain tehnologiji i kripto valutama. Ovakva mogućnost svakako postoji, ali je ona verovatna isključivo na tržištima na kojima trgovina kripto valutama bude značajno pozitivno odstupala od svetskih trendova, kao što je bio slučaj sa Kineskim tržištem.

Kripto valute predstavljaju značajnu tehnološku evoluciju u okviru međunarodnog finansijskog sistema. I postojeći sistem zasnovan je na prethodnim tehnološkim evolucijama, pa je tako i u ovom slučaju potrebno pratiti njen razvoj, prihvatiti i primeniti sve pozitivne aspekte. Uključivanje države kroz regulaciju ovde je možda i najpotrebnije. Kao i kod svakog tehnološkog napretka najveći otpor daljem napretku stvaraju oni koji najviše uživaju u postojećem sistemu. U slučaju da se pokaže da kripto valute pružaju značajnu korist građanima na štetu finansijskih institucija ovaj otpor će svakako biti snažan.

Videli smo da su kritike koje se odnose na finansiranje terorizma, pranje novca, itd., neosnovane. Sa druge strane kritike da se ne radi o novcu su prerane. Fluktuacije vrednosti koje kripto valute iskazuju na dnevnom nivou nisu svojstvene pravim valutama, pa ih pre svega treba posmatrati kao imovinu kojom se trguje. Međutim i ovde se može postaviti pitanje fluktuacija valuta u uslovima inflacije i hiperinflacije, odnosno u uslovima nestabilnosti i nemogućnosti predviđanja, čak i kratkoročnih, kretanja na tržištu valute koja je u pitanju. Upravo takve okolnosti trenutno karakterišu tržište kripto valuta. Klasifikacija kripto valuta kao imovine u ovom trenutku možda je i opravdana sa aspekta da se njima više trguje nego što se koriste u trgovini, ali u tom smislu bi i klasifikacija interneta u sličnoj fazi razvoja kao „sistem za razmenu naučnih informacija“ bila opravdana. Upotreba i mogućnosti kripto valuta tek su u ranoj fazi razvoja. Šta one trenutno predstavljaju, imovinu ili novac, može biti predmet debate, ali samo na nivou pojedinačnih zemalja, usled njihove različite primene na ovim nivoima, i samo u trenutku razmatranja.

Kako su kripto valute iskazale otpornost na negativne regulacije, pritisak velikih igrača na obaranje cena, medijski pritisak ekonomskih analitičara, i opstale kao još uvek u potpunosti nedefinisani fenomen realno je očekivati da ćemo u narednih nekoliko meseci videti pozitivne promene u regulaciji kripto valuta kao i verovatno uključivanje berzi u trgovinu kripto valutama kao imovinom. U srednjem roku ovo bi trebalo da dovede do rasta vrednosti kripto valuta. U dugom roku kripto valute će preći iz nedefinisane sfere i u funkciji četvrte industrijske revolucije iskazati svoj potencijal i vrednost.

Posebnu pažnju treba obratiti na činjenicu da se ovo odnosi samo na mali broj kripto valuta, koje će nivoom tehnološkog razvoja najpre i najbolje odgovoriti na zahteve tržišta. Dominantan broj kripto valuta i u ovom trenutku nema nikakvu vrednost, već se u potpunosti bazira na već široko rasprostranjenoj tehnologiji i snažnom marketingu. U tom smislu kretanje na tržištu kripto valuta možemo poistovetiti sa kretanjem na tačka-com tržištu krajem devedesetih godina 20. veka. Početak razvoja interneta doveo je do ogromnih rasta ulaganja u kompanije koje su bile bazirane na internetu, bez obzira na činjenicu da ta ulaganja nisu bila opravdana ekonomskim podacima i činjenicama. Nakon pucanja balona veliki broj ulagača ostao je bez celokupnog ulaganja, ali oni koji su uložili u E-bay, Amazon, i dr. ostvarili su i verovatno i dalje ostvaruju značajan profit.

Ovde možemo napraviti još jednu vezu. U trenutku razvoja interneta moglo se takođe postaviti pitanje njegovog budućeg uticaja na razvoj terorizma, pornografije, i dr. i smanjivanje mogućnosti odgovarajućih službi u borbi protiv ovih problema. Da li su ovi razlozi trebali da spreče razvoj internet tehnologije ili ne?

Narodna banka Srbije, kao i ostali kreatori ekonomskih politika u Srbiji, trebalo bi da prate sve promene na tržištu kripto valuta i regulacije i aktivnosti drugih država kako bi mogli da procene potencijalne rizike i prednosti ranog uvođena i regulacije kripto valuta. Uzevši u obzir moguće legalne načine kupovine i prodaje kripto valuta u Srbiji, NBS bi u ovom trenutku mogla da uloži napore u regulisanje kupo-prodaje ovih valuta i oporezivanje dobiti nastale ne osnovu ovih transakcija.

6. LITERATURA

• Ernest and Young Global Consumer Banking Survey, 2014, http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_Global_Consumer_Banking_Survey_2014/$FILE/EY-Global-Consumer-Banking-Survey-2014.pdf
• European Central Bank, 2012, Virtual currency schemes, Frankfurt.
• European Central Bank, 2015, Virtual currency schemes – a further analysis, Frankfurt.
• Financial Action Task Force, 2014, Virtual Currencies Key Definitions and Potential AML/
• CFT Risks, Pariz.
• International Monetary Fund, 2016, Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations, Washington.
• Houy, N., 2014, The Bitcoin mining game, Groupe d’ Analyse et de Théorie Économique
• Lyon-St Étienne, Lyon.
• Houy, N., 2014, The economics of Bitcoin transaction fees, Groupe d’ Analyse et de
• Théorie Économique Lyon-St Étienne, Lyon.
• Nakamoto, S., 2008, Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, https://bitcoin.org/
• bitcoin.pdf
• Rainer, B. et all., 2015, Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance, Journal of
• Economie Perspectives, Vol. 29, str. 213-238.
• Vondrackova, A., Regulation of Virtual Currency in the European Union, 2016, Charles
• University Law Faculty, Prag
• Swan, M., Blockchain – Blueprint for a new economy, 2015, O’Reilly, Sebastopol.

Internet izvori:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto#Development_of_bitcoin
• www.blockchain.info
• https://bitcoin.org/en/
• https://coin.dance/poli
• www.coinmarketcap.com

...

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1. Fondacija za razvoj ekonomske nauke
2. Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations, 2016, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
3. Virtual currency schemes – a further analysis, 2015, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany
4. Neregulisani digitalni novac koji je najčešće izdat i regulisan od strane svog osnivača i prihvaćen od strane određene virtuelne zajednice
5. http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003478 Podatak za oktobar 2017. godine.
6. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Podatak za septembar 2017. godine.
7. Primer Mt. Gox, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox
8. Mt. Gox Exchange i Coincheck
9. Inicijalna ponuda virtuelnih valuta
10. https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Gen/Tax-treatment-of-crypto-currencies-in-Australia---specificallybitcoin/#TransactingwithBitcoin
11. https://media.dev.by/decree_media_kit_en.pdf
12. https://ria.ru/economy/20171221/1511414652.html
13. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4989410/Russia-launches-cyber-currency-CryptoRuble.html
14. https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/payment/digital-currency.html
15. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-virtual-currency-guidance
16. https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2017-10-27/110111
17. https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/14912/BoF_DP_1727.pdf;jsessionid=2F1E2EDBF1180739B5C13906CA99260E?sequence=1
18. https://cryptovalley.swiss/
19. https://www.sif.admin.ch/sif/en/home/dokumentation/medienmitteilungen/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-69539.html
20. Inicijalna ponuda virtuelne valute (ICO) podrazumeva neregulisano finansiranje razvoja novih virtuelnih valuta prikupljanjem sredstava od zainteresovanih investitora. Investitori (pojedinci ili kompanije) ulažu fiducijarni novac ili već postojeće virtuelne valute u zamenu za vlasništvo nad određenim brojem jedinica novostvorene valute, u nadi da će u budućnosti njena vrednost biti višestruko veća. Ukoliko se prikupi unapred definisana potrebna suma u okviru ICO investitorima se dodeljuje pripadajući broj jedinica nove valute, ukoliko ne investirani novac se vraća investitorima.
21. Prema nekim procenama 45% ukupne trgovine bitkoinom.
22. http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/6m?c=e&t=b
23. https://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1199807908806/4549025-1450455807487/Factbookpart1.pdf
24. http://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/scripts/showContent.html?id=7605
25. https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-fines-btc-e-virtual-currency-exchange-110-million-facilitating-ransomware

@ 7ecd3fe6:6b52f30d

I normally try to avoid the noise that is the crypto market only because I've been in that situationship before back in 2016, got rugged in the ICO phase and learned my lesson. There is nothing left for me to take from crypto apart from watching from the sidelines and enjoying the endless amount of schadenfreude it produces.

So every so often I find myself checking in on the ugly step-child of Bitcoin just to see what the left side of the bell curve are up to and you know what?

I wasn't disappointed.

In fact, I'm kind of impressed at the number of times shitcoiners can come up with a new meta to get the degens excited enough to take another spin at the casino, it's honestly pretty impressive.

After ordinals were cooked, the shitcoiners were left to head back to the drawing board, and the obvious pivot was AI tokens. AI and LLMs were the new hotness and try they did but AI tokens didn't really take off in 2024.

Sure there's tokens like NEAR, Internet Computer, and RENDER all with a few billion in market cap and according to CoinGecko there's around 50 billion in AI shitcoins, but for these coins to pump they need to provide some sort of product.

That requires investment and some thinking and who has time for that?

F AI, AI Agents are the future

Wtf are AI agent tokens you ask? Bad question, but I'll edify you anyway.

AI agents are autonomous software programs designed to perform very specific tasks and make decisions independently. Hardly very AI and more repetitive loops, cronjobs if you will.

Using an AI agent and giving a blockchain wallet these agents can interact with smart contracts, dApps and DEXs and start to get up to some shenanigans, or at least distance the agent creator from the actions.

No, I didn't rug pull you, that was the AI Agent malfunctioning.

I guess the killer app for AI agents is plausible deniability when you have to plead your case with the SEC.

As this new batch of vapourware gains popularity, every moron with a ChatGPT pro subscription and a dream is going after this market of suckers. Right now there are several AI agent tokens you can speculate on with a combined market cap of $16 billion according to CoinGecko

It's all about the meta-baby

I'm old enough to remember when the idea for a shitcoin was

• Utility, it had to do something and wall it off, so you needed to token to access a feature, that failed
• Then we went into culture and community, its all about the memes, that failed
• Then it was all about etching in on Bitcoin block space, using that rare commodity made my shitcoin valuable, that failed

Now we've got a bit of a mish-mash of memes + AI utility equals new grift.

To illustrate the unserious nature of this nonsense, AI agents, associated meme coins, and the protocols used to create these agents are among the top five best-performing crypto assets of the day, according to CoinGecko.

For example, Truth Terminal—the agent that started much of this wave—has promoted Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) causing both to skyrocket.

Fartcoin surged to a new all-time high price of $1.3 and a market cap of $1.5 billion as a result, FML, what a complete waste.

Growth in the FART coin Market Cap

ChatGPT-wrapped crypto scams

The Truth Terminal chatbot is a customized version of Anthropic's Claude 3 LLM, that tweets out random nonsense and somehow shitcoiners take this text as gospel and try to bet on tokens it shills or creates tokens based on its tweets as if it were Elon himself.

Can't wait for Elon to pump your bags, well, let's all dogpile on the random brain farts of a chatbot.

Again this just seems like a way to obscure insider trading and pump and dump influencer scams by hiding the human element behind a bot.

In fact, shitcoiners are creating tokens or sending tokens to a known wallet tied to this AI agent, hoping it uses this data to formulate it's next round of bullshit, I mean bullish tweets.

AI in name only

Still, most agent autonomy is limited. Truth Terminal, for example, still has creator Andy Ayrey looking over it's shoulder before it's thoughts and decisions go out to the public.

So if there's someone watching it, there's someone with access to the wallet and master access to prod it in a certain direction no?

Sigh! Reading up on this all just made my brain hurt and not in a good way.

“Do you want to be right or do you want to make money”

99% of it is a scam and the AI agent wrapper grifts are probably worse than other past trends tbh.

bc at least meme coins promise nothing whereas AI coins try to larp as much as possible to appear legit to unsuspecting…

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 6, 2025

This AI agent field itself is still relatively nascent and doesn't seem to provide any value other than being a filter for random tweet generation, and we all know computers aren't good with being random.

Most if not all projects promising AI-powered solutions will not deliver on their promises, potentially leading to significant losses for investors.

But that's the game they choose to play.

The cryptocurrency market is primarily driven by hype and speculation, and AI agent tokens are no exception. Many projects are overvalued based on potential rather than actual achievements.

Is this the future?

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni članak na politika.rs.

06.12.2014 / Autor: Istok Pavlović

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Pre nekoliko godina, pojavila se digitalna valuta – bitkoin. Isprva, delovalo je kao utopija šačice sanjara ideja da ova valuta jednog dana postane glavno sredstvo plaćanja među ljudima, i da se potpuno ukine bankarski sistem i posrednici u finansijskim transakcijama. Međutim, san polako postaje realnost. Sve više ozbiljnih kompanija prima bitkoin kao sredstvo plaćanja, i njegovo usvajanje se povećava iz meseca u mesec.

Kako zapravo radi bitkoin? Da bismo odgovorili na ovo pitanje, pođimo od jednog starijeg problema u matematici, koji se zove „problem vizantijskih generala”.

Vizantijski generali opkolili su neprijateljski grad. Svaki od generala nalazi se sa svojom vojskom negde oko grada, i generali su geografski razdvojeni. Komunikacija među generalima ide preko kurira, koji prenose poruke. Da bi napad uspeo, generali moraju da se dogovore oko zajedničkog nastupa – da krenu svi odjednom u dogovoreno vreme. Međutim, problem je što među generalima, pa i među kuririma mogu da postoje izdajnici – ljudi koji rade za neprijatelja i koji će namerno preneti pogrešnu poruku kako bi sabotirali napad. Kako organizovati prenošenje poruka među generalima tako da akcija uspe, bez obzira na izdajnike?

Rešenje ovog problema postoji, i u pitanju je veoma kompleksan matematički algoritam koji se razvio početkom 21. veka. Pojavom bržih kompjutera, ovaj problem postao je rešiv za kraće vreme. U praksi, ovo je značilo da smo dobili način da se uspostavi potpuno poverenje između dve osobe na internetu koje se uopšte ne poznaju. To je otvorilo čitav novi spektar mogućnosti – a jedna od tih mogućnosti je digitalni novac.

Bitkoin sistem je zapravo kao jedna velika finansijska knjiga na internetu. Vi kupujete prostor u toj knjizi, u zamenu za klasičan novac ili prodajom neke robe ili usluga, i tada postajete vlasnik određene sume bitkoina. Taj svoj prostor zatim možete prodati nekom drugom ko hoće da ga kupi. Sve transakcije su potpuno sigurne i niko na svetu ne može da ospori da su se desile.Transakcije automatski beleži mreža kompjutera širom sveta prema „algoritmu vizantijskih generala”, bez ikakvog upliva živih ljudi, i tako dobijamo maksimalno poverenje. S obzirom na to da su ljudi eliminisani iz jednačine, najvažnija posledica ovog sistema je to što sada sve transakcije mogu da budu bez posrednika, bez banaka i nema provizije.

Ova poslednja činjenica je jedan od ključnih razloga što je bitkoin uveden kao sredstvo plaćanja u mnogim prodavnicama. Koliko god opskurno delovao, bitkoin je zapravo mnogo povoljniji za prodavce od klasičnog novca. Recimo da prodajete elektronske uređaje, gde je uobičajena margina profita oko pet procenata. Banke za procesiranje kartice uzimaju 2,5 odsto. Vi, dakle dajete polovinu svog profita banci, samo zato što banke kao sistem imaju monopol nad plaćanjem i nemate izbora. Tačnije, niste imali izbora do pojave bitkoina.

Za velike kompanije, kojima ne smetaju bankarske provizije, bitkoin je više stvar prestiža i mode. „Hej, pogledajte kako smo mi moderna kompanija, primamo bitkoine.” Međutim, za male porodične biznise bitkoini bukvalno mogu da znače opstanak.

Postavlja se logično pitanje, šta je to što bitkoinima daje vrednost? Odgovor na ovo pitanje zapravo leži u pitanju „šta je to što daje vrednost klasičnom novcu”. Ako pogledamo istoriju novca, u početnom trenutku za ljude je to bilo neko parče papira, ali su uvedene zlatne rezerve kao garancija da taj papir vredi. Ova garancija stvorila je kod ljudi veru u novac, i ta vera čini njegovu vrednost. Kasnije, ove zlatne rezerve su davno prevaziđene i nemaju veze s količinom novca u opticaju, ali ono što je ostalo jeste vera u novac, i samo zahvaljujući toj veri novac ima vrednost.

Ista stvar je i sa bitkoinima. Njegovu vrednost zapravo čini vera. Milionima ljudi širom sveta krv uzavri od sreće kada čuju za ideju da se konačno iskoreni bankarski sistem. Oni vide bankare kao „krvopije koji žive na tuđoj grbači”, i podržaće svaku ideju u tom pravcu. Počeće pasionirano da koriste bitkoine kao sredstvo plaćanja gde god je to moguće, sanjajući da dožive tokom svog života naslov u novinama „Bankari ostali bez posla”, da bi tog dana mogli da kažu: „I ja sam u ovome učestvovao, ja sam jedan od oslobodilaca čovečanstva.”

Naravno, kao i svaka tehnologija u svojoj ranoj fazi, bitkoin ima svoje propuste koji se sređuju. Ako pogledate internet komentare, ima ljudi koji će naći sto mana bitkoinima. Ipak, da smo slušali kritizere koji kritikuju tehnologije u ranoj fazi, nikada ne bismo imali avione, električnu struju, ili bilo koje inovacije koje su u početku delovale nesigurno, a bez kojih nam je današnji život nezamisliv.

@ 2355757c:5ad3e04d

You’ve heard it for some time now, incandescent lightbulbs will officially be banned for sale by retailers in the U.S. However it officially goes into fully effect NEXT WEEK. Americans will only be able to purchase LED lights from retailers across the country. The government began warnings in January, and has since officially rolled out the ban on manufacturing and sale of incandescent bulbs. WHY? LED lights provide more “light” using 75% less energy and last 25 times longer than incandescents. Sounds like a no brainer switch then right? WRONG. LED lights are significantly worse for your health, here’s why.

Our light environment is one of the most underrated, overlooked aspects of health. I will write plenty more about this topic in the future. It is complex at the surface, but in reality the takeaway is simple. Our light environment is one if not THE most important inputs to our biology. It dictates our body’s “clock” or circadian rhythm. When you disrupt your circadian rhythm frequently, you are significantly more at risk to ALL CHRONIC DISEASES. Why? Your are inherently destroying your ability to get restorative sleep, keeping your body in a sympathetic state, creating dysfunctional mitochondria, and increasing oxidative stress + inflammation. Just from light? YES.

“We summarize recent evidence suggesting that circadian disruption may also be a predisposing factor for the development of age-related neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), and Huntington's disease (HD).”

“... inappropriate environmental conditions such as Artificial Light at Night (ALAN) can cause circadian disruption or chronodisruption (CD) which can result in a variety of pathological diseases , including premature aging .” -STUDY LINK

Blue light stimulates cortisol production, the “stress” hormone that everyone has the knickers in a bunch about in the health community about mitigating through the use of supplements like Ashwaghanda. Here’s the deal, you don’t need to “mitigate” cortisol, you need to regulate its rhythm. Cortisol is the antithesis of melatonin, and the two hormones are meant to perform a dance everyday where one rises as the other falls…in accordance with the light cycles. However, that dance, that rhythm has been disrupted by artificial light. 

Melatonin warrants five newsletters just on its own, but know that the same blue light that stimulates cortisol production also suppresses melatonin production. If you do not produce sufficient melatonin, your body is missing out on a whole host of anti-oxidant, anti-cancer benefits. Melatonin is driven by light, and is the composer of our mitochondria (dictates mito fusion/fission, mitophagy, etc.).

LED (light emitting diode) lighting has a much “more artificial” light spectrum profile than incandescent bulbs. Full spectrum sunlight is the only light that would have existed for hundred’s of thousands of years of human existence. Then came the discovery/ability to use fire as a light source. Although full spectrum sunlight contains the entire visible light spectrum + UV + infrared, each of these wavelengths come through at different angles of the sun. This is the NUANCE that matters:

• There is no UV present at sunrise/sunset

• UVA appears when the sun is >10 degrees above horizon. UVB at sun angle > 30 degrees

• At dusk/dawn and sunrise/sunset, blue light wavelengths are scattered while red light remains intact (longer wavelength). Why sunrises/sunsets are more red/orange than blue

• Blue light is NEVER present in natural sunlight without accompanying red/infrared wavelengths.

If you look at the light spectrum of LEDs, you will see a VERY high concentration of blue wavelengths, green to yellow wavelengths, and very little red/infrared wavelengths. Conversely, incandescent bulbs have NO blue light, little to no green/yellow and is majority red/infrared. This is why incandescent bulbs are so inefficient, because they dissipate so much heat in the form of infrared light (we can’t see infrared). Red and infrared (especially NIR), are very healing/low energy wavelengths. They are beneficial for mitochondrial health, especially the 650-800nm range. Sunlight is predominantly Red/infrared (40-50%) and these wavelengths are always present when the sun is up. 

When you use LEDs you are creating a VERY artificial light environment with a lot of isolated blue, green, yellow light wavelengths and almost no red/infrared. This is extremely different from sunlight. This is especially problematic when using LEDs at NIGHT, because as stated…blue light suppresses melatonin production. Incandescent bulbs are a far better option since they are nearly all red/infrared light. This has a much less pronounced effect on melatonin, and is more in line with natural sunlight. It is also far lower in temperature, which again is a safer bet at night time.

Before Edison invented the light bulb, humans only used fire for light at night (or early morning). Incandescent bulbs are inherently FAR MORE similar in light spectrum profile to fire and have a much less harmful effect on melatonin. The estimates for suppression of melatonin in the graph below are certainly estimates, i think incandescent bulbs would actually be a bit lower but it depends on quantity and brightness as well. 

TLDR: LEDs are shitcoins for light. They are far more artificial in terms of light spectrum. They are stealing your melatonin away from you. Avoid at all costs (especially at night), or wear blue light blocking glasses if you must. You can buy “red or warmer LEDs” but they aren’t really a true red light source because most just put phosphorous over a white LED to alter the warmth of the light. 

STOCK UP on incandescent bulbs (good for keeping your house warm in the winter) before they are $100/pop. The government does NOT CARE about your health. 

BlockBlueLight Glasses + Red Bulbs (Code TRISTAN10) 

Stay Sovereign,

Tristan

p.s. the movement is growing.

Originally published JUL 31, 2023

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na medium.com

07.10.2019 / Autor: LuxBTC

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Uvod

U ovom članku osvrnut ćemo se na razine informiranosti o bitcoinu s kojim se pojedinac susreće i znanja koja bi trebao usvojiti za dublje razumijevanje bitcoina. Mnogi su već čuli za bitcoin, ali površno razumijevanje može dovesti do potpuno krive percepcije pogotovo ako se za izvor informacija koriste neobjektivni i tehnički netočni medijski članci. Proces razumijevanja bitcoina iziskuje puno vremena i novih informacija koje na prvu nisu lako dostupne stoga ćemo pokušati dati uvid u tijek i izvore informiranja kao i pitanja koja bismo trebali postavljati.

Razina I - Prvi kontakt

Čuli smo od poznanika da je kupio bitcoine i zaradio na njima. Znamo iz medija da je bitcoin digitalna kriptovaluta i da ju najčešće koriste kriminalci za drogu i pranje novca. Oni koji su uspjeli zaraditi na bitcoinu, imali su sreće jer su ga uspjeli prodati na vrijeme i dobiti novac za njega jer je bitcoin vjerojatno neki oblik piramidalne sheme.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• bitcoin je digitalna kriptovaluta
• bitcoin koriste kriminalci
• na bitcoinu se može zaraditi ako imamo sreće i uspijemo ga prodati za novac
• bitcoin je neki oblik piramidalne sheme

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• što je to digitalna kriptovaluta?
• zašto bitcoin koriste kriminalci?
• kako izgleda kupnja i prodaja bitcoina?
• što je to piramidalna shema?

Mnogi će ostati na ovoj razini i prihvatiti negativno mišljenje o bitcoinu. Svaka nova informacija iz medija, koja je najčešće vezana za nagli pad cijene ili napad hakera na kripto-mjenjačnice, bit će dodatna potvrda da se bitcoina treba kloniti. U mnoštvu ljudi koji će se prikloniti tom mišljenju naći će se pojedinci koji će htjeti saznati nešto više o njemu, najčešće privučeni onim dijelom gdje se na bitcoinu može zaraditi.

Razina II - Špekulacija i brza zarada

Čuli smo da cijena bitcoina naglo raste i pada te je vrlo nepredvidljiv. Ljudi se vole kockati i špekulirati s cijenom pa zašto ne isprobati sreću na njemu prije nego što cijena padne na nulu.

Još uvijek ne znamo kako bitcoin funkcionira, ali saznali smo da možemo uplatiti novac na neke od kripto-mjenjačnica te na njima kupiti bitcoin i njime špekulirati. Kupili smo dio od jednog bitcoina (npr. 0.01 BTC) u vrijednosti od 200 eura. Cijena mu je kroz idućih nekoliko tjedana porasla te smo u dobitku 20%. Očekivali smo nastavak rasta pa ga nismo prodavali, ali cijena je oštro pala te smo sada u minusu 30%. U strahu da nam se gubitak ne poveća, prodajemo 0.01 BTC natrag u eure, naravno uz gubitak jer bitcoin trenutno vrijedi manje nego kad smo ga kupili. Kockali smo se i izgubili dok je naš prijatelj bio manje pohlepan te je iskoristio dobitak od 10%.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• na kripto-mjenjačnicama (burzama) možemo kupiti bitcoine
• ne moramo nužno kupiti cijeli bitcoin s obzirom da se može dijeliti na decimale
• cijena bitcoina je vrlo volatilna i nepredvidljiva
• bitcoinom se špekulira pa se ne razlikuje od kockanja

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• zašto bitcoin ima cijenu?
• zašto je cijena bitcoina volatilna i nepredvidljiva?
• koliko su kripto-mjenjačnice sigurne?

Nekima se posrećilo s bitcoinom, nekima nije. Sigurno je da takva internetska valuta ne može imati vrijednost jer ne postoji nikakav razlog zašto joj cijena toliko skače i pada. Najbolje se onda kloniti takvog oblika zarade.

Razina III - Odakle Bitcoinu vrijednost

Mnogi koji su čuli za bitcoin reći će — bitcoin nema vrijednost jer ne služi ničemu. Također, bitcoin je samo digitalni zapis koji nije opipljiv te je jedini razlog zašto još uvijek ima cijenu taj što je cijena potpuno umjetna te se još nije našla zadnja naivčina koja će ga otkupiti i neće više moći prodati jer ga više nitko neće htjeti kupiti. Tada će balon puknuti.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• bitcoin je digitalni zapis koji ne služi ničemu
• cijena bitcoina je umjetna jer bitcoin nema vrijednost
• sustav će se urušiti kad više nitko ne bude htio otkupiti bitcoine

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• kako izgleda i funkcionira struktura bitcoina kao digitalni zapis?
• kako se kretala cijena bitcoina od početka njegovog izuma i što nam to govori?

Razina IV - Više strana Bitcoina

Do sada smo se dotakli osnovnog ekonomskog dijela bitcoina iz kojeg smo saznali da bitcoin posjeduje tržišnu cijenu te da se njime može trgovati kao i s ostalim tržišnim instrumentima poput dionica, zlata, valuta itd. Bitcoin također ima tržišnu kapitalizaciju jer je poznat ukupan broj bitcoina u cirkulaciji kao i cijena jednog bitcoina.

No, razumijevanje bitcoina i odgovore na naša pitanja nećemo dobiti kroz njegovu osnovnu ekonomiju koja nam trenutno jedino govori da tržište bitcoina postoji jer postoji njegova ponuda i potražnja. Da bismo naučili što je bitcoin i kako funkcionira, moramo zaviriti u njegovu povijest, tehničku stranu i detalje ekonomije bitcoina koje otvaraju stotine pitanja koja za sobom povlače mrežu mnogih drugih. U tom procesu traženja odgovora nesvjesno ćemo se dotaknuti povijesti samog novca te njegove evolucije kroz tisućljeća, razvoja ljudskog društva i stvaranja monetarne politike, izuma interneta i njegovog utjecaja na društvo te slobodu pojedinca, izuma kriptografije i njezine važnosti te pojavu cypherpunk pokreta, austrijske škole ekonomije, svjetske financijske krize, blockchain tehnologije i njene primjene te još mnogih drugih tema.

Nastanak Bitcoina

Bitcoin je vrlo mlada tehnologija koja nije nastala preko noći nego je produkt rada koji se proteže nekoliko desetljeća u prošlost. Tehnički članak Bitcoina [1] objavio je njegov tvorac 31.10.2008. pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, uoči svjetske financijske krize, a prvu verziju Bitcoin softvera objavljuje 3.1.2009. u kojem ostavlja poruku s naslovnice novina The Times, toga dana.

U nastavku slijedi hrvatski prijevod uvodnog poglavlja knjige “Mastering Bitcoin” autora Andreasa Antonopoulosa. [2]

Što je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je skup koncepata i tehnologija koji čine osnovu ekosustava digitalnog novca. Jedinice valute nazvane bitcoin koriste se za pohranu i prijenos vrijednosti među sudionicima bitcoin mreže. Korisnici bitcoina međusobno komuniciraju putem bitcoin protokola prvenstveno putem interneta, mada se mogu koristiti i druge prijenosne mreže. Bitcoin protokol, dostupan kao softver otvorenog koda, može se izvršavati na širokom rasponu računalnih uređaja, uključujući prijenosna računala i pametne telefone, čineći tehnologiju lako dostupnom.

Korisnici mogu prenositi bitcoin preko mreže i njime ostvariti gotovo sve što se može ostvariti s uobičajenim valutama, uključujući kupovinu i prodaju robe, slanje novca ljudima ili organizacijama itd. Bitcoin se može kupiti, prodati i zamijeniti za druge valute na specijaliziranim burzama. Bitcoin je u određenom smislu savršen oblik novca za internet jer je brz, siguran i bez granica.

Za razliku od tradicionalnih valuta, bitcoini su potpuno virtualni. Ne postoje u fizičkom obliku, pa čak ni digitalnom. Kovanice su obuhvaćene u transakcijama koje prenose vrijednost s pošiljatelja na primatelja. Korisnici bitcoina posjeduju ključeve koji im omogućuju da dokažu vlasništvo nad bitcoinom u bitcoin mreži. Pomoću ovih ključeva mogu potpisati transakcije kako bi otključali vrijednost i potrošili je prijenosom na novog vlasnika. Ključevi se često pohranjuju u digitalnom novčaniku na računalu ili pametnom telefonu korisnika. Posjedovanje ključa koji može potpisati transakciju jedini je preduvjet trošenja bitcoina, čime je kontrola u potpunosti u rukama pojedinog korisnika.

Bitcoin je distribuirani, peer-to-peer (svaki sa svakim) sustav. Kao takav ne postoji središnji poslužitelj ili točka kontrole. Bitcoin se stvara kroz proces nazvan “rudarenje”, koji uključuje nadmetanje u pronalaženju rješenja za matematički problem tijekom obrade bitcoin transakcija. Svaki sudionik u bitcoin mreži (tj. svatko tko koristi uređaj koji pokreće čitav niz bitcoin protokola) može raditi kao rudar, koristeći procesorsku snagu svog računala za provjeru i zapisivanje transakcija. Svakih 10 minuta, u prosjeku, bitcoin rudar može validirati transakcije ostvarene posljednjih 10 minuta te je nagrađen s potpuno novim bitcoinom. U osnovi, rudarenje bitcoina decentralizira izdavanje novih kovanica i funkcije odobrenja središnje banke te zamjenjuje potrebu za bilo kojom središnjom bankom.

Bitcoin protokol uključuje ugrađene algoritme koji reguliraju funkciju rudarenja na mreži. Težina zadatka obrade koju rudari moraju obaviti prilagođava se dinamički tako da u prosjeku svakih 10 minuta netko uspije izvršiti zadatak bez obzira na to koliko se rudara (i koliko procesne snage) natječe u bilo kojem trenutku. Protokol također prepolavlja brzinu stvaranja novih bitcoina svake 4 godine i ograničava ukupni broj bitcoina koji će se stvoriti na fiksni ukupni iznos od 21 milijun kovanica. Rezultat je da broj bitcoina u optjecaju pomno slijedi lako predvidljivu krivulju koja se približava 21 milijunu do 2140. godine. Zbog smanjujuće stope izdavanja bitcoina, dugoročno, bitcoin valuta je deflacijska. Bitcoin se ne može razvodniti printanjem novog novca iznad očekivane stope izdavanja.

Bitcoin je ujedno i naziv protokola, peer-to-peer mreže te distribuirane računalne inovacije. Bitcoin valuta je samo prva primjena ovog izuma. Bitcoin predstavlja vrhunac dugogodišnjeg istraživanja kriptografije i distribuiranih sustava te uključuje četiri ključne inovacije okupljene u jedinstvenu i moćnu kombinaciju. Bitcoin se sastoji od:

• Decentralizirana peer-to-peer mreža (bitcoin protokol)
• Knjiga javnih transakcija (blockchain)
• Skup pravila za neovisnu provjeru transakcija i izdavanje valute (pravila konsenzusa)
• Mehanizam za postizanje globalnog decentraliziranog konsenzusa na važećem blockchainu (Proof-of-Work algoritam )

(…)

Digitalne valute prije bitcoina

Pojava digitalnog novca usko je povezan s razvojem kriptografije. To nije iznenađujuće kada se razmotre temeljni izazovi korištenja bitova koji predstavljaju vrijednost koja se može zamijeniti za robu i usluge. Tri su osnovna pitanja za svakoga tko prihvaća digitalni novac:

• Mogu li vjerovati da je novac autentičan i da nije krivotvoren?
• Mogu li vjerovati da se digitalni novac može potrošiti samo jednom (poznat kao problem “dvostruke potrošnje”)?
• Mogu li biti siguran da nitko drugi ne može tvrditi da taj novac pripada njima, a ne meni?

Izdavači papirnog novca stalno se suočavaju s problemom krivotvorenja koristeći sve sofisticiranije papire i tehnologiju printanja. Fizički novac lako rješava problem dvostruke potrošnje jer ista novčanica ne može biti na dva mjesta odjednom. Naravno, konvencionalni novac također se često pohranjuje i prenosi digitalno. U tim se slučajevima problemi s krivotvorenjem i dvostrukom potrošnjom rješavaju odobravanjem svih elektroničkih transakcija putem središnjih vlasti koje imaju globalni uvid u valutu u optjecaju. Za digitalni novac, koji ne može iskoristiti takvu vrstu provjere, kriptografija pruža osnovu za povjerenje u legitimnost zahtjeva korisnika. Konkretno, kriptografski digitalni potpisi omogućuju korisniku da potpiše digitalnu imovinu ili transakciju čime dokazuje vlasništvo nad tom imovinom. Uz odgovarajuću arhitekturu, digitalni potpisi također se mogu koristiti za rješavanje problema s dvostrukom potrošnjom.

Kada je kriptografija počela postajati široko dostupna i shvaćena u kasnim 80-ima, mnogi su istraživači pokušali koristiti kriptografiju za konstrukciju digitalnih valuta. Ti rani projekti digitalne valute izdavali su digitalni novac, obično s pokrićem u nacionalnoj valuti ili plemenitim metalom poput zlata.

Iako su te ranije digitalne valute funkcionirale, bile su centralizirane i kao rezultat toga, vlade država i hakeri su ih lako napadali. Rane digitalne valute koristile su središnji zavod zbirnog vođenja računa za podmirivanje svih transakcija u pravilnim intervalima, baš kao i tradicionalni bankarski sustav. Nažalost, u većini slučajeva ove novonastale digitalne valute bile su na meti zabrinutih vlada i na kraju su kroz sudske sporove uklonjene. Neke su propale u spektakularnim padovima kada je matična tvrtka naglo likvidirana. Za otpornost protiv intervencija protivnika, bilo da su legitimne vlade ili kriminalni elementi u pitanju, bila je potrebna decentralizirana digitalna valuta kako bi se izbjegla jedna točka napada. Bitcoin je takav sustav, koji je dizajniran decentralizirano, bez ikakvih središnjih autoriteta ili točke kontrole koji mogu biti napadnuti ili oštećeni.

Povijest Bitcoina

Bitcoin je izumljen 2008. godine objavljivanjem rada pod naslovom „Bitcoin: Peer-to-peer elektronički gotovinski sustav“,[1] napisanog pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto je kombinirao nekoliko prethodnih izuma kao što su b-money i HashCash kako bi stvorio potpuno decentralizirani elektronički gotovinski sustav koji se ne oslanja na središnje tijelo za izdavanje valute i potvrđivanje transakcija. Ključna inovacija bila je upotreba distribuiranog sustava izračunavanja (nazvanog algoritam Proof-of-Work) za provođenje globalnih „izbora“ svakih 10 minuta, omogućujući decentraliziranoj mreži da postigne konsenzus o stanju transakcija. Time se elegantno rješava problem dvostruke potrošnje u kojem se jedna valuta može potrošiti dva puta. Prije toga, problem s dvostrukom potrošnjom predstavljao je slabost digitalne valute, a riješen je provjerom svih transakcija putem središnjeg zavoda zbirnog vođenja računa.

Bitcoin mreža pokrenuta je 2009. godine, koju je objavio Nakamoto i koju su tada revidirali mnogi drugi programeri. Procesna snaga algoritma Proof-of-Work (rudarenje), koji pruža sigurnost i otpornost bitcoina, povećala se eksponencijalno te sada nadmašuje kombiniranu procesnu snagu najboljih svjetskih super-računala. Ukupna tržišna vrijednost bitcoina već je premašila 135 milijardi američkih dolara. Najveća transakcija koju je mreža do sada procesuirala bila je 400 milijuna američkih dolara, koja je poslana odmah i obrađena za naknadu od 1 dolara.

Satoshi Nakamoto povukao se iz javnosti u travnju 2011., prepuštajući odgovornost za razvijanje koda i mreže skupini dobrovoljaca. Još uvijek nije poznat identitet osobe ili ljudi koji stoje iza bitcoina. No, ni Satoshi Nakamoto, niti bilo tko drugi ne vrši individualnu kontrolu nad bitcoin sustavom, koji djeluje na temelju potpuno transparentnih matematičkih principa, otvorenog koda i konsenzusa među sudionicima. Sam izum je revolucionaran i već je pokrenuo novu znanost na područjima distribuiranog računalstva, ekonomije i ekonometrije.

[…]

Knjiga “Mastering Bitcoin” pruža detaljan opis tehničkih pojmova, strukture i rada bitcoina te bitcoin mreže. Daje odgovore na mnoga tehnička pitanja i prednosti koje bitcoin pruža. Njen autor, Andreas Antonopoulos najpoznatiji je edukator u Bitcoin zajednici koji dugi niz godina održava brojne govore i edukacijske seminare o važnosti bitcoina diljem svijeta. Sudjelovao je u nekoliko parlamentarnih saslušanja na kojima je educirao političke državne vrhove o novonastaloj bitcoin tehnologiji. Njegovi brojni govori mogu se naći na Youtube kanalu aantonop [3], a neki od njih sakupljeni su u knjige “The Internet of Money (Vol. I, Vol. II)” [4]

Stvaranje šire slike

Nakon usvajanja novih informacija i tehničkih pojmova počet ćemo dobivati širu sliku o bitcoinu. Možda nam i dalje neće biti jasni pojmovi poput rudarenja, 51% napada, Problem bizantinskih generala, kreiranje privatnih i javnih ključeva itd., ali postoje mnogi Youtube videi koji to na slikovit način vrlo dobro objašnjavaju.

Potkovani tehničkim znanjem o bitcoinu, možemo krenuti postavljati pitanja što novcu daje vrijednost, zašto zlato ima vrijednost, koja je sličnost između zlata i bitcoina, zašto su standardne valute inflacijske, kako bitcoin kao deflacijska valuta funkcionira, kako funkcionira monetarna ekonomija i koje su mane današnjeg monetarnog sustava.

Odgovore na ova bitna ekonomska pitanja možemo pronaći u knjizi “The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking” autora Saifedeana Ammousa [5] koja će uskoro biti prevedena na hrvatski jezik u nakladništvu Mate d.o.o.

Saifedean Ammous u svojoj knjizi govori o rijetkosti u pogledu omjera Stock-to-Flow (zaliha i proizvodnje). Objašnjava zašto se zlato i bitcoin razlikuju od ostalih metala poput bakra, cinka, nikl. Zbog toga što imaju visok Stock-to-Flow omjer (SF).

„Za bilo koju potrošnu robu (…) udvostručenje proizvodnje značajno će umanjiti sve postojeće zalihe, što će srušiti cijenu i naštetiti vlasnicima. Skok cijene zlata, koji bi uzrokovao udvostručenje godišnje proizvodnje, bio bi neznatan, povećavajući zalihe za 3% umjesto 1,5%.”

„Upravo je ta konstantno niska stopa stvaranja zaliha zlata temeljni razlog zašto je zlato zadržalo svoju novčanu ulogu kroz ljudsku povijest.”

„Visoka vrijednost stock-to-flow omjera zlata čini ga robom čija tržišna ponuda ima najnižu elastičnost cijene.”

„Postojeće zalihe bitcoina u 2017. bile su oko 25 puta veće od novih bitcoina proizvedenih u toj godini. Taj omjer je upola manji u usporedbi s omjerom za zlato, ali oko 2022. stock-to-flow bitcoina nadmašit će zlato”- Saifedean Ammous

Stock-to-Flow pristup kao pokretač ekonomske analize Bitcoina

Nakon objavljivanja knjige “The Bitcoin Standard”, Stock-To-Flow pristup koji ima porijeklo u analizi tržišta robe, počeo se koristiti kao alat za analizu Bitcoina. Pristup je u skladu s osnovnom idejom koja stoji iza Bitcoina koji je izričito zamišljen kao novo monetarno dobro i usmjeren prema formi novca plemenitih metala. Prema tome novi se bitcoini ne mogu rudariti proizvoljno. Bitcoin je potpuno digitalan stoga se često naziva digitalnim zlatom.

Postoji snažna povezanost između tržišne vrijednosti bitcoina i Stock-To-Flow omjera. Model koji pokazuje ovaj statistički značajan odnos prvi je napravio autor PlanB i iznio rezultate u članku pod nazivom Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.[6]

Iako statistički modeli poput ovoga mogu ukazivati na snažnu zavisnu korelaciju, ne mogu uzeti u obzir utjecaje mnogih drugih, najčešće nepredvidljivih faktora, stoga uvijek postoji šansa da u potpunosti krivo prognoziraju budućnost.

Rana faza

Bitcoin je vrlo mlada tehnologija nastala tijekom svjetske financijske krize. U prvih 10 godina postojanja prošao je kroz mnoge faze. Od uporabe na crnom tržištu, trgovanja na nereguliranim burzama i hakerskih napada na njih do reguliranog trgovanja bitcoin terminskim ugovorima (futures contract), teme rasprava i korištenja u financijskim analizama poznatih svjetskih banaka te ostalih financijskih institucija itd.

Zbog povijesnog dugoročnog rasta cijene bitcoina te njegovog velikog potencijala kao nove tehnologije, mnogi se odlučuju ne koristiti ga još kao platno sredstvo nego ga nakon kupnje čuvaju. Do sada se pokazao kao dugoročno dobar instrument očuvanja vrijednosti osobne imovine, poput zlata, no idući pravi test za bitcoin bit će pojavom nove financijske krize.

Razvoj bitcoina podsjeća na razvoj interneta ranih 90-ih godina. Mnogi nisu razumjeli što internet predstavlja, korporacije čije je poslove ugrožavao, predviđale su mu propast te su smatrale da kućanstva neće imati potrebu za njime, stvorena je medijska slika da se internetom služe samo kriminalci, pedofili, ljubitelji pornografije. Danas se struktura interneta uvelike razlikuje u odnosu na njegovu ranu fazu te je neizostavan dio naših života koji je pokrenuo digitalnu revoluciju i unaprijedio životni standard ljudi diljem svijeta. Bitcoin se danas naziva i internetom novca.

Lightning network

Drugi sloj protokola na bitcoin mreži pod nazivom Lightning network, predstavljen je 2016. godine kao potencijalno rješenje za problem skalabilnost bitcoin mreže. Skalabilnost trenutno ne predstavlja problem, ali ako uporaba bitcoina postane široko rasprostranjena tj. ako se bitcoin počne koristiti u budućnosti kao svakodnevno platno sredstvo, iznimno je važno da mreža može podržati i obraditi veliki broj transakcija po sekundi. Lightning network je trenutno u beta fazi razvoja te preostaje vidjeti hoće li zaživjeti ili će se možda pojaviti neko drugo naprednije rješenje.

Zaključak

U ovom članku osvrnuli smo se na razine informiranosti o bitcoinu i znanja koja bismo trebali usvojiti za dublje razumijevanje bitcoina. Naveli smo izvore za tehničku i ekonomsku stranu bitcoina pomoću kojih možemo doći do odgovora na mnoga pitanja i dobiti širu sliku o bitcoinu.

Nitko ne zna što budućnost donosi i u kojem smjeru će se bitcoin razvijati — hoće li nadmašiti zlato u ulozi očuvanja vrijednosti osobne imovine, hoće li postati uvaženo globalno platno sredstvo te smanjiti monetarnu moć centralnih banaka ili nešto sasvim treće. Jedino što je sigurno da se svijest o trenutnom velikom nesrazmjeru bogatstva i moći širi, kao i zlouporaba moći za vlastite političke interese pojedinaca, na štetu naroda kojem se oduzimaju privatnost, sloboda, mogućnost izbora te da su u društvu potrebne mnoge promjene.

“The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.” — Satoshi Nakamoto

Reference

[1] https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf — Satoshi Nakamoto, 2008

[2] Mastering Bitcoin: Programming the Open Blockchain — Andreas A. Antonopoulos, 2016

[3] https://www.youtube.com/user/aantonop

[4] The Internet of Money (Vol. I, Vol. II) — Andreas A. Antonopoulos, 2016-2017

[5] The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking — Saifedean Ammous, 2018

[6] Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity — PlanB @100trillionUSD, 2019

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na luxb.substack.com.

27.10.2022 / Autor: Lux Bitcoin

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Najosnovniji način prijenosa vrijednosti je trampa.

Trampa, međutim, ima tri glavna ograničenja: zahtijeva podudarnost razmjera, prostora i vremena.

Podudarnost razmjera: ono što želite možda nema istu vrijednost kao ono što želite dati.

Podudarnost prostora: ono što želite može biti na različitim mjestima od onoga što želite dati.

Podudarnost vremena: ono što želite možda nema istu kvarljivost kao ono što želite dati.

Kako bi se prevladala ova ograničenja, pokušalo se koristiti intermedijarni dobra, s funkcijom novca.

Ta su dobra morala biti lako djeljiva, lako prenosiva, lako prepoznatljiva i nekvarljiva. Stoga su morala biti potrošna u razmjeru, prostoru i vremenu.

Potrošnost kroz vrijeme je najzanimljivije svojstvo.

Neko dobro se može potrošiti kroz vrijeme ako je fizički nepromjenjivo. Ali nepromjenjivost materijala nije dovoljna za očuvanje vrijednosti, potrebno je i održavati stabilnom količinu dostupnu na tržištu.

Da bismo razumjeli ovaj koncept, uzmimo primjer RAI kamenja, koje se koristilo kao valuta na otoku Yap.

Izvorno je nabaviti ovo kamenje bilo vrlo teško, pa nije bilo načina da se ih se previše inflacionira, ali iskrcavanjem kapetana O'Keefea 1871. situacija se promijenila. Zahvaljujući tehnološki naprednijim alatima kapetan je bio u stanju nabaviti nebrojeno kamenje, stvorivši inflaciju i uzrokovao da RAI izgubi status valute.

Inflacija nekog dobra uzrokuje mu gubitak vrijednosti.

Gubitak vrijednosti dobra otežava njegovu trošnost.

Povijest novca

Nakon pokušaja sa stokom, kamenjem, školjkama, žitaricama i solju, odlučeno je da se metalima pripiše funkciju novca, budući da ih se moglo modelirati u jednakim jedinicama.

Među metalima koji su se koristili kao novac, zlato je postalo dominantno zbog svoje nepromjenjivosti i iznimne teškoće u pronalaženju. Ove dvije karakteristike omogućile su mu da zadrži svoju vrijednost tijekom godina.

Novac koji ne zadržava svoju vrijednost tijekom vremena uzrokuje ogromnu štetu zajednicama. Uzmimo primjer Rimskog carstva.

Uvođenje Aureusa od strane Julija Cezara omogućilo je ogromno i uspješno tržište koje se širilo diljem Europe i Mediterana.

Međutim, Neron je, u nedostatku sredstava, počeo kovati novac sa sve manjom količinom plemenitog metala. S ovim trikom mogao je računati na mnogo više sredstava da ugodi narodu, primjerice davanjem kruha i igara.

Što su financije bile lošije, to se više metala oduzimalo. Od 8 grama Cezarovog Aureusa, sa godinama se prešlo na novčić sa samo 4,5 grama zlata. To je omogućilo carevima da troše iznad svojih mogućnosti, stvarajući osnove za ekonomsku propast carstva.

Kraj Carigrada također se poklopio sa devalvacijom novca. Sa novčanim padom dogodio se i kulturni, financijski i vojni pad.

Pad rimskog carstva i stalna devalvacija novca stvorili su ozbiljne prepreke trgovini i naveli stanovništvo da se organizira u male samodostatne zajednice nepovjerljive jedna prema drugoj.

Preporod nakon razdoblja ratova i gladi koincidirao je s usvajanjem novog novčanog standarda. Sve je počelo u Firenci 1252. godine kada je grad uveo florin, zlatnik s fiksnom težinom. Zahvaljujući svojoj stabilnosti, florin je postupno zamijenio sve bakrene i brončane kovanice koje se lako inflatiralo i predstavljao je uzor cijeloj Europi. Venecija je bila prva koja je slijedila primjer Firence kujući Dukat, ali još 150 drugih gradova prilagodilo se novom standardu.

S procvatom trgovine Europa, a posebno Italija, doživjeli su veliki gospodarski i kulturni procvat.

Usvajanje jakog novca kroz povijest uvijek je bilo nagrađeno rastom i prosperitetom. Drugi primjer je Britansko Carstvo, najveće u ljudskoj povijesti, koje je usvojilo moderni zlatni standard 1717. Iako se zlatom nije više trgovalo u malim transakcijama, ono je i dalje ostalo kao referenca za novčanice.

Zemlje poput Indije i Kine skupo su platile izbor kasnije prilagodbe zlatnom standardu.

Dok je veći dio planeta usvajao zlatno standard, stigla je La Belle Epoque, jedno od najprosperitetnijih razdoblja u ljudskoj povijesti. Uz jaki novac zajednički svim zemljama poticana je trgovina, a stabilnost novca tijekom vremena omogućila je akumulaciju kapitala potrebnog za ulaganja.

Godine 1914., s Prvim svjetskim ratom, zlatni standard je suspendiran.

Ako su sa jakim novcem ratovi završavali kad je državi nedostajalo novca, sa slabim novcem to više nije bio problem. Skriveni porez, inflacija, omogućio je nastavak ratova sve dok cjelokupno nacionalno bogatstvo nije erodirano.

Nakon rata, Sjedinjene Države doživjele su najgoru gospodarsku krizu ikada zabilježenu: Veliku depresiju. Uvriježeneo je mišljenje da se iz depresije izašlo zahvaljujući povećanju javne potrošnje (New Deal). Zapravo, kreditna ekspanzija 1920-ih je to uzrokovala, a New Deal je samo pogoršao situaciju.

U 1930-ima države su nastavile napuhavati valute.

Totalitarni režimi imali su svaki interes financirati se bez ubiranja poreza.

Keynes, ekonomist koji je rat smatrao učinkovitim načinom borbe protiv nezaposlenosti, teoretizirao je izlazak iz zlatnog standarda.

Drugi svjetski rat doista nije kasnio.

Godine 1971. Sjedinjene države definitivno napuštaju zlatni standard, započevši neobuzdanu monetarnu ekspanziju koja traje sve do danas. Za predodžbu: ako je 1971. unca zlata vrijedila 35 dolara, danas vrijedi 1500.

Korištenjem lako inflatornih valuta riskira se hiperinflaciju, odnosno drastičan gubitak kupovne moći u kratkom vremenu.

Primjeri hiperinflacije su Njemačka 1920-ih s dnevnom inflacijom od 20%, te Mađarska 1940-ih s dnevnom inflacijom od 207%.

U Mađarskoj su se cijene udvostručavale svakih 15 sati, što je učinilo apsolutno nemogućim uštedu i prijenos vrijednosti tijekom vremena.

Očigledno sve to ne bi bilo moguće s novcem koji teško podliježe inflaciji.

Bitcoin

Prije Bitcoina bile su moguće samo dvije vrste plaćanja:

• Gotovinska plaćanja bez posrednika

• Elektronička plaćanja putem posrednika

Gotovinska plaćanja su trenutna, ali zahtijevaju fizičku prisutnost obiju strana. Elektronička plaćanja mogu se izvršiti i na daljinu, ali za to je potreban posrednik koji ovjerava plaćanje i naplatu.

Bitcoin je prvi oblik novca koji omogućuje elektronička plaćanja bez uključivanja posrednika kao što su države ili banke, a to ga također čini prvom valutom koja nije podložna inflaciji, koja se ne može zaplijeniti, koja se ne može cenzurirati, koja može prenijeti vrijednost bolje od bilo čega kroz redove veličine, prostor i vrijeme.

Ako zlato ima inflaciju koja fluktuira oko 2%, Bitcoin ima inflaciju koja se prepolovi svake 4 godine sve dok ne dosegne nulu i ostane tamo zauvijek. Bitcoin je, dakle, prva valuta u povijesti koja će imati nultu inflaciju.

Prednosti Bitcoina u odnosu na zlato su ogromne: lakše ga je prenositi, omogućuje veću transparentnost i jamči manju inflaciju.

S manje inflacije:

1 - čuva se vrijednost tijekom vremena;

2 - olakšava se trgovanje;

3 - olakšava se ekonomska računica;

4 - jamči se sloboda pojedincima neovisno od središta moći.

Vremenska preferencija

Racionalnim pojedincima je uvijek bolje odmah pristupiti nekom dobru nego to odgađati tijekom vremena. Upravo zato se čekanje u gospodarstvu uvijek mora nagraditi.

Vrednovanje budućnosti u odnosu na sadašnjost omogućuje proizvodnju kapitalnih dobara, odnosno dobara stvorenih ne za potrošnju, već korisnih za proizvodnju budućih dobara.

Primjer: s čamcem se ulovi više ribe nego golim rukama, ali da bi se izgradio čamac potrebno je žrtvovati vrijeme i energiju bez istančane nagrade.

Zamislimo dvije individue na pustom otoku.

Laura budućnost shvaća vrlo ozbiljno;

Mario preferira trenutačno zadovoljstvo.

Mario provodi 8 sati dnevno kako bi golim rukama ulovio potrebnu ribu. Laura čini isto, ali nakon pecanja još dva sata posvećuje izradi štapa za pecanje. Nakon tjedan dana Laura je dovršila štap za pecanje i time može pokriti svoje dnevne potrebe u pola vremena koliko je potrebno Mariu. Sljedećih mjeseci, radeći isto sati kao i Mario, Laura ima vremena izgraditi čamac, mrežu i druge alate koji joj omogućuju da u jednom satu ulovi puno više ribe nego što Mario ulovi kroz cijele dane.

Na Stanfordu, 1960. napravljen je eksperiment.

Djeci je ponuđen slatkiš uz obećanje da će dobiti još jedan ako izdrže 15 minuta da ga ne pojedu. Djeca su stoga morala birati hoće li odmah dobiti jedan slatkiš ili dva nakon 15 minuta. Godinama kasnije, pronađena je korelacija između onih koji su uspjeli odgoditi zadovoljstvo i onih koji su postigli veće akademske i sportske rezultate.

Odgađanje zadovoljstva omogućuje štednju.

Štednja omogućuje investicije.

Investicije povećavaju produktivnost.

Štednja se općenito potiče u sigurnim društvima, gdje su porezi niski i gdje je vlasništvo zaštićeno. Temeljni čimbenik u jamčenju štednje je imati jaku valutu, koju se ne može lako napuhati. Ako valuta stalno gubi vrijednost, više se potiče da je se potroši nego da je se sačuva.

Prijelaz s valute koja gubi vrijednost na valutu koja svoju vrijednost zadržava stoga je ključno na duge staze, jer to može činiti razliku izmađu rasta ili pada jednog društva.

Valuta koja s vremenom gubi vrijednost obeshrabruje štednju u korist potrošnje, rizičnih ulaganja i zaduživanja.

Jaka valuta, osim što pogoduje štednji, poboljšava i ekonomsku računicu, odnosno omogućuje mjerenje iskusnosti resursa i donošenje racionalnih odluka o proizvodnji i potrošnji.

Npr: ako je roba za kojom postoji velika potražnja oskudna, povećanje cijene potiče njezinu proizvodnju i obeshrabruje potrošnju.

Obrnuto, ako dobra za kojim nema potražnje ima puno, pad cijene obeshrabruje njegovu proizvodnju i potiče potrošnju.

Ista dinamika vrijedi i za novac čija se cijena naziva “kamatna stopa”.

Trošak zajmova trebao bi se smanjiti ako je štednje puno, a porasti ako je štednje malo, kako bi uvijek postojala ispravna ravnoteža i ispravni poticaji.

Ponovimo koncept: ako malo tko posuđuje, kamate bi trebale pasti, tako da olakšava posuđivanje novca. Ako pak mnogi traže posudbe, kamate bi trebale porasti, kako bi se destimuliralo traženje kredita i poticala štednja.

Sa slabom valutom događa se umjesto toga da kamatne stope ne odražavaju ravnotežu između štednje i ulaganja. Centralne banke stvaraju kamatne stope koje su niže od tržišnih, potičući potrošnju i ulaganja čak i kad je štednja oskudna.

Uz investicije koje zahtijevaju više sredstava nego što su stvarno dostupna, sistemske krize su neizbježne.

Djeluje ovako:

• Stvori se nova valuta

• Povećaju se investicije

• Smanjuje se štednja

• Pokreće se više ulaganja nego što ima raspoloživih sredstava

• Investicije propadaju

Valute koje gube vrijednost ne dopuštaju cijenama da signaliziraju stvarnu oskudicu resursa, dakle da koordiniraju proizvodnju i potrošnju.

Loše investicije, nastale zbog niskih kamata i gubitka vrijednosti valute, glavni su uzrok gospodarskih kriza.

Cilj centralnih banaka je “jamčiti stabilnost cijena” povećanjem i smanjenjem količine novca. Ali osigurati stabilnost cijena promjenom mjerne jedinice je apsurdno. Mjerna jedinica je fiksna po definiciji, ne može se mijenjati ovisno o mjerenom objektu.

Stalno mijenjanje mjernih jedinica samo stvara zbunjenost, otežava ekonomsku kalkulaciju i onemogućuje pravilnu raspodjelu resursa.

Primjer: tvrtka kojoj su trebale godine da stekne konkurentsku prednost može gledati kako ona nestaje u nekoliko minuta ako je valuta zemlje dobavljača precijenjena, a valuta kupca devalvira. Tvrtka će stoga biti prisiljena zatvoriti se unatoč činjenici da realno proizvodi veliku vrijednost.

Postojanje stotina različitih valuta čija se vrijednost stalno mijenja stvara ekonomsku štetu, ne samo za resurse koji se koriste u razmjeni, već prije svega zbog nemogućnosti ekonomske kalkulacije.

Vjerujući da favoriziraju izvoz, države teže devalviranju valuta, ne shvaćajući da zapravo favoriziraju strane kupce. Novčana devalvacija nije ništa drugo nego javno financiranje izvoza, odnosno prodaja vlastite robe ispod cijene.

Ovi bi problemi nestali kad bi se koristila jedna globalna referentna valuta sa sigurnom vrijednošću.

Najveća iluzija suvremenog svijeta je ideja da vlada mora upravljati valutom.

Po Keynesu, vlada je morala poticati potrošnju u sadašnjosti i obeshrabrivati štednju za budućnost. Onima koji su mu isticali da su te politike dugoročno pogubne odgovarao bi da smo “dugoročno svi mrtvi”. Ali dugoročno, prije ili kasnije, stigne.

Jaku valutu po Keynesu je trebalo izbjegavati jer je obeshrabrivala potrošnju. Ono što nije razumio je da samo štednja dugoročno omogućuje održiva ulaganja.

Slabe valute i ratovi

Postoje tri faktora koji povezuju slabe valute i ratove:

1. Tečajne razlike i konkurentske devalvacije su prepreke slobodnoj trgovini koje se često rješavaju vojnim intervencijama. Jaka transnacionalna valuta olakšava trgovinu, ako prolazi roba nema potrebe za prolaskom vojske.

2. Ako su sa jakom valutom resursi za rat ograničeni na poreze, s inflatornom valutom država može izvlačiti bogatstvo bez ograničenja. Mogućnost stvaranja novca stoga omogućuje državama nastavak ratova i nakon što im ponestane sredstava u proračunu, sve do potpune erozije nacionalnog bogatstva.

3. Jaka valuta potiče suradnju i obeshrabruje sukobe koji bi mogli biti korisni samo kratkoročno. Što je više suradnje, što je veće tržište, to je više mogućnosti za specijalizaciju, a što je veća podjela rada, to je veća produktivnost.

Imati neinflatornu valutu također je jamstvo slobode protiv tirana.

Ako tiranin ne može stvarati novac, prisiljen ga je tražiti u obliku poreza ili posudbi, a ako se građani ne slažu sa suludom politikom tiranina mogu ga prestati financirati ili mu barem zagorčati život.

Slaba valuta, s druge strane, daje vladama mogućnost neograničene potrošnje i kupovanja pristanka stanovništva kratkoročnim ulaganjima.

Sposobnost stvaranja novca znači potencijalno neograničenu moć, a povijest je puna primjera u kojima je ta moć korištena na razorne načine.

Nije slučajnost da su svi najgori tirani u povijesti (Lenjin, Staljin, Mao, Hitler, Robespierre, Pol Pot, Mussolini, Kim Jon Il itd.) operirali sa slabom valutom koju su mogli stvarati po svom nahođenju. Jer izvlastiti je puno lakše nego naplatiti porez.

Bitcoin omogućuje prijenos novca i njegovo pohranjivanje bez potrebe za traženjem bilo čijeg dopuštenja.

Bitcoin se ne može uništiti, ne može se konfiscirati, ne može se krivotvoriti. Zbog toga je i osiguranje od pretjerane moći vlada i banaka.

Bitcoin je ekstremno učinkovit kao sredstvo razmjene budući da je digitalan, a iznimno je učinkovit kao pohrana vrijednosti imajući inflaciju koja teži ka nuli. Još uvijek je prevolatilan da bi bio obračunska jedinica, ali ima sve karakteristike da postane najbolja obračunska jedinica u povijesti.

Prevedeno s talijanskog lux_vitae@ln.tips ili lux@blink.sv

@ dfc7c785:4c3c6174

For many years I’ve been researching my family tree. I’ve always been intrigued by my middle name of Brewster which many of you (perhaps) might associate with William Brewster of the pilgrim fathers who settled in America some 400 years ago, after a treacherous journey across the Atlantic that lasted weeks; scary to think I crossed it in just 10 hours not so long ago much like tens of thousands do year upon year.

My grandmother was convinced he was a direct ancestor of ours. My Grandad disagreed on the basis that they set sail childless, their first born entering the world once they had settled on American shores. So how could it be possible that we were descendants?

Anyway I inherited my middle name from hers and was thus christened Nicholas Euan Brewster in 1972.

During my school years other kids found it amusing and being a bespectacled nerd, they teased me no end. I instead learnt to love it because for me, as I’ve learnt over the years, it represents bravery, ingenuity, leadership and a general resilience to the world around me. Surviving against all the odds.

I’ve never been able to draw a direct connection between myself and William, other than to learn about a city of the same name on Cape Cod, that I flew over recently on that same flight but still have never visited to this day. Not far from there in the American version of Plymouth they came ashore, some distance from their intended destination of Virginia. Weather prevented them from making their way down the coast, so Massachusetts became their new settlement point.

Many years ago I was researching the Brewsters and spoke to a fellow Brewster in the USA via Compuserve, who sent me a massive box of DVDs with genealogical data on them; holy Moses, I was overwhelmed and came to realise there were perhaps zillions of us. The information was interesting but I had no real way of making that link, even if there ever was one to be found.

In the end I turned back to reading the bundle of notes my late grandmother had left us, including a family tree and some papers on another man who became just as interesting to me. His name was Alfred Berry Brewster born of Victorian London.

The following was sourced from - https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/softheq-nile-valley

Egypt, the Nile Valley & Sudan

In Khedival Service

What was the [[Khedival Service]]?

Alfred Berry Brewster was born in London, England on 7 November 1856.

Whereabouts in London was he born?

Brewster Bey entered Egyptian Service in 1877 (aged 21) in the Customs Administration and Coastguard Service. In 1879 he was appointed to the position of Director of Customs at [[Suakin]] by [[General Gordon]]. He served in the Commissariat staff during the Egyptian Campaign and was awarded the Egypt Medal w/Clasp as well as the Khedive's Star. He returned to Suakin and in 1883 did duty in Valentine Baker Pasha's Intelligence Department (1884).

In 1885 he served under General Graham at Suakin as Chief Interpreter and Secretary to the Intelligence Department.

He took part in several engagements and received a Mention in Despatches from General Graham (30 May 1885). Most notably Brewster entered the Dervish camp alone before a planned attack on Saukin and convinced a large number of the enemy to come over to the British side. These same men later served in the capture of Tamai.

Brewster remained Director of Customs for Saukin until 1890 when he transferred to the Coastguard Service as Secretary and Controller. He was chosen as Private Secretary by both Khedive Mohammed Tewfik and Abbas II.

![[Pasted image 20241229083331.png]] Further reading

https://www.britishmuseum.org/collection/term/BIOG121543

https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/alfredberrybrewsterbey

https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/alfredberrybrewsterbey

@ 2355757c:5ad3e04d

Grounding or Earthing, names for getting your good ole bare feet on the surface of the earth. Sounds simple because it is simple, but are the benefits really that profound? Short answer: YES

Grounding is really only so a modern health hack because we are so disconnected. Until the invention of modern footwear with insulated rubber/plastic soles, we were connected to the surface of the earth pretty much 24/7. Why does this matter? The Earth’s surface is a POOL of free electrons waiting for us to tap into. Electrons? Why do those matter. Electrons are the true currency of energy and the input to our energy production system (Electron Transport Chain) that produces ATP. The human body, like all other living things is electromagnetic. We use electrical signaling to operate our biology. Without a sufficient amount of electrons and sufficient voltage potential, our body will not function properly. However, it is not so simple to say more electrons = more health. If that were the case then we’d all be hooked up to copper wires absorbing current to level up our biology. 

TOO MUCH of anything is bad. Our skin has resistance to protect us from shocks and lightning strikes (absorbing too much electrical current at once). However, our hands and feet (with thousands of nerve endings) have lower skin resistance. Lower resistance = better ability to conduct electricity. That is not a mistake. Through contact of our feet or hands on the ground, we are able to sustain a voltage differential up to a few hundred millivolts (depending on the surface). These electrons on the surface of the earth are willing to move to a less negatively charge area (us), and thus we are able to absorb a small amount of free flowing electrons into our body through our semi-conductive tissue on our hands and feet. Sounds cool, right? Now what are the actual benefits?

1. Managing Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) and/or free radicals

2. Maintaining Proper Blood Flow & Pressure 

3. Regulating Cortisol & Circadian Rhythm

Oxidative stress. Anti-oxidants. Free radicals. These are all terms you MAY be familiar with, but what do they actually mean? If you read my newsletter from last week on Travel, you will know a bit more about oxidative stress and the function of anti-oxidants (if not, I will link it HERE). The TLDR is that our energy production process in our mitochondria, otherwise known as the Electron Transport Chain (ETC), is not perfect. As a result of this, free radicals are generated. Free radicals are typically oxygen molecules or molecules that contain oxygen (aka reactive oxygen species) that have an unpaired electron in their valence shell. O2 is supposed to be converted into metabolic water (H2O), but as mentioned the efficiency is not 100%. Therefore you get molecules like superoxide (O2-) or hydroxyl radical (OH) that are hungry to fill the unpaired electron and go back to stability. “Anti-oxidants” combat these radicals by attempting to supply an electron before they steal one from elsewhere in the cell and cause damage. Enter in newly absorbed electrons from grounding. These free electrons absorbed from the earth can help combat the free radicals/ROS by acting as an anti-oxidant. This will in turn help your body get back to redox homeostasis and not suffer cellular damage from oxidative stress. Grounding, in turn “reduces inflammation”. The thermal images often touted alongside grounding (before/after) show a positive response (thermal imaging can be a bit dodgy in accuracy but it captures some essence of effectiveness).

Maintaining proper blood flow and blood pressure. Perhaps the most interesting and fundamentally undebatable benefit of grounding. As stated above we are electromagnetic beings, and our blood flow exemplifies that. Both the lining of the blood vessel and surface of our red blood cells have a negative charge. This negative charge is imperative because it prevents rouleaux and coagulation, or the stacking of blood cells. If you blood cells stack, they are far easier to clump/clot and cause a blockage. Like charges repel, so having a sufficient “zeta potential” or negative charge on our RBCs will keep the blood flowing smoothly. Grounding helps maintain that. A study linked HERE showed how Earthing/Grounding reduces blood viscosity. 

“Grounding increases the surface charge on RBCs and thereby reduces blood viscosity and clumping. Grounding appears to be one of the simplest and yet most profound interventions for helping reduce cardiovascular risk and cardiovascular events.”

Regulating our circadian rhythm. A lesser touted benefit to grounding is its ability to influence our circadian rhythm or our “body clock”.

I am under the belief now that our circadian health is THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT of HEALTH. Why? Because literally all of our downstream biological functions are dictated by our circadian rhythm. This is why light, meal/exercise timing, sleep, connection to nature are all so important & interconnected.

The main input might be light, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t more inputs to the complex system that is our body. Connection to the earth is another. How do we know? Grounding has been proven to regulate cortisol rhythms. One of the biggest signs of a irregular circadian rhythm is cortisol and melatonin cycles that are out of whack. When you are grounded you are connected to the earth in the position of your geographical location. This is not proven, but its quite logical that the reason grounding helps regulate circadian rhythm is because along with those electrons you are getting a signal sent to your brain about the location/time/season it is where you are in that moment. It is the only logical explanation and it is one of the reasons I am such a big fan of grounding as MUCH as possible, especially after travel.

I recently released my first health optimization guide that includes all the travel hacks I use (including grounding) to completely avoid jet lag on long haul flights: AVOIDING JET LAG-An In Depth Guide to Hacking the Stressors of Travel.

This guide is extremely comprehensive, and application specific. It is a 30 page PDF that goes into WHY travel is so bad for us, and what you can do pre/during/post travel to avoid jet lag completely. If you travel often, this is worth checking out…but I warn you it is dense and only worth purchasing if you are willing to learn. 

Grounding PROTOCOLS:

1. Just do it-bare feet on the ground

2. Length? 1 min is better than 0…5 min even better…2 hours even better still. There is no threshold dose. 

3. Surfaces? Dirt/Grass/Rocks/Sand/Ocean all great. If it is wet and post thunderstorm, even better. Concrete works but asphalt is not the best. 

4. Grounding shoes? Not comparable to barefoot but still better than rubber/plastic soled shoes. I will write more about this in the near future as I am conducting experiments with different shoes on different surfaces. 

5. IT IS LITERALLY FREE

Big Grounding did not pay me to write this, even though I am an electrical engineer. Seriously, grounding is a no brainer. You may not “feel” anything, but the more you do it and the more disconnected you are to start…the better you will feel I can guarantee that. We are electromagnetic creates of Earth, it is about damn time we get back to connecting with our natural input signals. 

Stay Sovereign, 

-Tristan

Originally written July 25th, 2023

@ dd81a8ba:3eb298a5

it's better to read 100 books 10 times than 1,000 books once

I don't know who originated this concept. I've heard it said by Naval. the idea is to go deep on a narrower slice of possible books than to be spread so thin. this isn't so much an algorithm as a heuristic, a tactic for filtering the kinds of books you read, and also a way to measure your own growth over time. I've had the experience of getting something different from reading the same book at different points in my life. deliberately checking in with different books regularly over time is a good way to get an informative but different perspective on your own mentality.

this is my list. I'll be short of 100 for a while, the point is to make a tangible artifact out of it, and update it over time. let me know if you have or make a similar list and I'll add a link to your list here.

update 2/24

since I created the 100 books page and started shaping my reading around it, I have reached 100 books, and now in order to add one to the list I must first evict one already on the list.

I have also encountered a different way to refer to this project, and a sharper take on what I’m doing. it comes from an author with one book on my list already and more to come, Italo Calvino. the introduction to his book “Why Read the Classics?” is a quick read, and well worth it.

A classic is a book that has never finished saying what it has to say.

first, he defines “classic” to mean any book that once read, you return to again and again, and continue finding new takes, new value, fresh perspectives on. actually he lists many criteria, but that’s roughly what it boils down to, books that have meaning to you, which you read repeatedly at different stages in your life, a through-line to return to.

The ranks of the old titles have been decimated, while new ones have proliferated in all modern literatures and cultures. There is nothing for it but for all of us to invent our own ideal libraries of classics. I would say that such a library ought to be composed half of books we have read and that have really counted for us, and half of books we propose to read and presume will come to count—leaving a section of empty shelves for surprises and occasional discoveries.

consider any of these books a welcomed topic of conversation.

the list was last updated on Jan 7th, 2025

| title | Author | Genre | |-------|--------|-------| | "The Myth of Sisyphus" | Albert Camus | philosophy | | "Brave New World" | Aldous Huxley | distopian science fiction | | "The Doors of Perception" | Aldous Huxley | non-fiction | | "The Civil War Short Stories of Ambrose Bierce" | Ambrose Bierce | supernatural horror | | "The Little Prince" | Antoine De Saint Exuprey | children's | | "Nichomachean Ethics" | Aristotle | philosophy | | "Rendezvous With Rama" | Arthur C Clarke | science fiction | | "Atlas Shrugged" | Ayn Rand | fiction | | "The Fountainhead" | Ayn Rand | fiction | | "The Fractal Geometry of Nature" | Benoit Mandelbrot | maths | | "The History of Western Philosophy" | Betrand Russell | philosophy | | "Four Archetypes: Mother/Rebirth/Spirit/Trickster" | Carl Jung | philosophy | | "The Undiscovered Self" | Carl Jung | philosophy | | "Roadside Geology of Missouri" | Charles Spencer | non-fiction | | "A Pattern Language" | Christopher Alexander | non-fiction | | "On the Good Life" | Cicero | philosophy | | "All the Pretty Horses" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Blood Meridian" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "No Country for Old Men" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Stella Maris" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "the crossing" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "The Passenger" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "The Road" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Flowers for Algernon" | Daniel Keyes | fiction | | "The Beginning of Infinity" | David Deutsch | non-fiction | | "Forty Tales From the Afterlives" | David Eagleman | magical realism | | "Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World" | David Easley and John Kleinberg | non-fiction | | "We Are Legion [We Are Bob]" | Dennis Taylor | science fiction | | "Godel, Escher, Bach" | Douglas Hofstadter | philosophy | | "The Discourses" | Epictetus | philosophy | | "The Revelations" | Erik Hoel | fiction | | "Kafka the Complete Stories" | Franz Kafka | fiction | | "The Mythical Man-Month" | Fred Brooks | non-fiction | | "Thus Spake Zarathustra" | Friedrich Nietzsche | philosophy | | "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers" | Geoffrey A. Moore | non-fiction | | "Nineteen Eighty-Four" | George Orwell | distopian science fiction | | "A Swim in a Pond in the Rain" | George Saunders | literature | | "Eon" | Greg Bear | science fiction | | "On Bullshit" | Harry G Frankfurt | philosophy | | "Walden and Other Writings" | Henry David Thoreau | non-fiction | | "Moby Dick" | Herman Melville | fiction | | "Siddhartha" | Hermann Hesse | philosophy | | "I, Roboot" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Foundation" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Naked Sun" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Proper Study of Mankind" | Isaiah Berlin | philosophy | | "Invisible Cities" | Italo Calvino | magical realism | | "The Perigrine" | J A Baker | non-fiction | | "Chaos: Making a New Science" | James Gleick | non-fiction | | "Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility" | James P. Carse | philosophy | | "Fancies and Goodnights" | John Collier | fantasy | | "The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows" | John Koenig | fiction | | "Annals of the Former World: " | John McPhee | non-fiction | | "The Curve of Binding Energy" | John McPhee | non-fiction | | "Collected Fictions" | Jorge Luis Borges | fantasy | | "Hero With a Thousand Faces: The Collected Works of Joseph Campbell" | Joseph Campbell | philosophy | | "Heart of Darkness" | Joseph Conrad | fiction | | "The Death of Ivan Illych and Other Stories" | Leo Tolstoy | literature | | "The Mandibles" | Lionel Schriver | fiction | | "A Wrinkle in Time" | Madeleine L'Engle | young adult | | "M.C. Escher: His Life and Complete Graphic Work" | many | non-fiction | | "Meditations" | Marcus Aurelius | philosophy | | "Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters" | Matt Ridley | science | | "Prey" | Michael Crichton | science fiction | | "Sphere" | Michael Crichton | fiction | | "Personal Knowledge: Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy" | Michael Polanyi | philosophy | | "Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience: Steps Toward Enhancing the Quality of Life" | Mihaly Csikszentmihaly | non-fiction | | "The Epic of Gilgamesh" | N. K. Sandars | legendary fiction | | "An Introduction to Population Genetics" | Nielson and Slatkin | non-fiction | | "Ender's Game" | Orson Scott Card | science fiction | | "Alas Babylon" | Pat Frank | science fiction | | "Hackers and Painters: Big Ideas from the Computer Age" | Paul Graham | non-fiction | | "The Alchemist" | Paulo Coelho | magical realism | | "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" | Philip K Dick | science fiction | | "The Collected Stories of Philip K Dick Volume 5" | Philip K Dick | science fiction | | "The Trial and Death of Socrates" | Plato | philosophy | | "The Soundscape" | R. Murray Schafer | non-fiction | | "Dandelion Wine" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "Fahrenheit 451" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "Something Wicked This Way Comes" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "The Martian Chronicles" | Ray Bradbury | science fiction | | "The Selfish Gene" | Richard Dawkins | non-fiction | | "Surely You're Joking, Mr Feynman" | Richard Feynman | biography | | "The Creative Act: A Way of Living" | Rick Rubin | self-help | | "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values" | Robert Persig | fiction | | "Letters From a Stoic" | Seneca | philosophy | | "The Art of Living" | Sharon Lebell | philosophy | | "The Dark Tower" | Stephen King | fiction | | "Piranesi" | Susanna Clarke | magical realism | | "Stories of Your Life and Others" | Ted Chiang | science fiction | | "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" | Thomas Kuhn | non-fiction | | "Common Sense" | Thomas Paine | philosophy | | "The Kon-Tiki Expedition: A Raft Across the South Seas" | Thor Heyerdahl | non-fiction | | "The Kingdom of Speech" | Tom Wolf | non-fiction | | "The Right Stuff" | Tom Wolf | historic fiction | | "True Names: and the Opening of the Cyberspace Frontier" | Vernor Vinge | cyberpunk | | "Man's Search for Meaning" | Viktor Frankl | philosophy | | "The Shape of Things" | Vilem Flusser | non-fiction | | "The Twilight World" | Werner Herzog | historic fiction | | "Neuromancer" | William Gibson | cyberpunk |

@ ed84ce10:cccf4c2a

Hackathon Summary

The HackPrinceton Fall 2024 hackathon was held from November 8th to 10th at Princeton University. It attracted 238 developers who registered 99 projects, engaging participants in workshops, mentorship sessions, and presentations throughout the 36-hour event. The hackathon featured four main tracks: Education + Interaction, Healthcare, Finance, and Sustainability, which encouraged diverse and innovative ideas.

In addition to the main tracks, seventeen sponsored challenges were offered as bounties, adding a competitive element to the event. Participants submitted their projects via a public GitHub repository and showcased their work in two-minute presentations to judges on the final day. Notable outcomes included effective project demonstrations under time constraints, which enhanced the visibility of substantial ideas across different sectors.

Prizes were a significant motivator, with the grand overall prize being a set of AirPod Max for each member of the top team, while the second-place team received Xbox Series S consoles. HackPrinceton Fall 2024 facilitated skill development, collaboration, and creative solutions, showcasing robust engagement from both seasoned and first-time participants.

Hackathon Winners

Healthcare Prize Winners

• Bartimaeus: Stealing Vision Back - This project aids blind individuals in spatial navigation using audio guidance from a smartphone's camera, YOLO, and OpenCV, innovatively employing AI for precise pathfinding and object identification.

• PillPal Pro - A smart box solution ensures elderly patients adhere to medication routines through an ESP32 microcontroller, which facilitates tracking and notifications, complemented by a 3D-printed casing and Firebase integration.

• ReCall.ai - This project uses AI and wearable tech to recognize faces for individuals with cognitive impairments, supporting social interaction and providing cognitive health insights across various facilities.

• HealthSync - Enhances hospital coordination by assigning patient urgency scores and facilitating secure, real-time information exchange using a peer-to-peer network and advanced data security.

• Medbank - Offers a personalized health wallet that manages medical information and insurance details, utilizing AI for intelligent insurance processing and provider matching through geospatial analysis.

• HormoniQ - Addresses PCOS diagnosis challenges with a machine learning tool that analyzes hormonal patterns from health records, providing early intervention likelihoods to healthcare providers.

• World Translationator 5000 - This translation tool tackles language barriers in healthcare by employing quantum natural language processing for accurate translations of medical terminology.

Education and Interaction Prize Winners

• CrystalMath - An AI-driven platform for visualizing math problems through step-by-step animations and voiceovers, supported by Claude model computations and AWS hosting.

Finance Prize Winners

• Stratify - Democratizes investment by offering an AI-powered stock backtesting tool to optimize strategies through detailed analyses and user-friendly simulations.

• Asteroid Audit - Educates about taxes through a gamified experience, integrating Unity for game development and custom algorithms for visual tax estimation.

• Orbital Finance - Utilizes AI voice assistant technology for real-time customer interactions, offering advanced data analyses leveraging MATLAB and NLP for business growth.

Sustainability Prize Winners

• WasteWise - Analyzes waste data using computer vision and GPT-4 API to guide sustainable consumer habits through brand and recyclability evaluation.

• SustainAI - An AI-powered platform providing personalized sustainable lifestyle recommendations based on user data, integrating MATLAB for contextual data personalization.

Developer Tool Prize Winners

• Scraply - Simplifies deep learning education with a drag-and-drop interface for building neural networks, featuring algorithm suggestions and gamified learning.

Financial Innovation Prize Winners

• Chama - Facilitates crypto education with a real-time insights platform offering sentiment analysis and actionable recommendations, integrating OnChainKit for secure transactions.

• HackAwards - Empowers hackathon participation with NFTs via project ownership and contribution tracking, implemented using VerbWire API and Base Blockchain for efficient processing.

Explore all projects and further details at HackPrinceton Fall 2024.

About the Organizer:

HackPrinceton

HackPrinceton unites hackers globally to collaborate and innovate. Renowned for its immersive events, the organization provides workshops, lectures, and mentorship programs that foster skill development and inventive thinking. These sessions equip participants with the essential tools to create impactful projects, even for those without prior team or project ideas. HackPrinceton's dedication to nurturing creativity is evident in its comprehensive support for aspiring innovators, aligning with its mission to inspire the development of impactful, innovative ideas. More information is available at HackPrinceton's website.

@ fbf0e434:e1be6a39

Hackathon 总结

HackPrinceton Fall 2024 Hackathon 于 11 月 8 日至 10 日在普林斯顿大学举行。活动吸引了 238 名开发人员，他们注册了 99 个项目，参与者在为期 36 小时的活动中参与了研讨会、指导会议和展示。Hackathon 设有四个主要方向：教育 + 互动、医疗保健、金融和可持续性，鼓励多样化和创新的想法。

除了主要方向外，还提供了十七个由赞助商提供的挑战作为赏金，为活动增添了竞争元素。参与者通过公开的 GitHub 存储库提交他们的项目，并在最后一天向评委展示了两分钟展示。其中一个亮点是有效的项目"demo"，在时间限制下展示了不同行业的重大创意，提升了项目的可见度。

奖品是一个重要的激励因素，整体冠军奖是一套 AirPod Max，将颁发给获胜团队的每位成员，第二名团队将获得 Xbox Series S 游戏机。HackPrinceton Fall 2024 在技能发展、协作和创造性解决方案方面发挥了重要作用，展示了经验丰富和新手参与者的积极参与。

Hackathon 获奖者

Healthcare Prize Winners

• Bartimaeus: Stealing Vision Back - 该项目通过使用智能手机摄像头、YOLO 和 OpenCV 提供音频导航，帮助盲人进行空间导航，创新性地利用 AI 实现精准路径规划和物体识别。

• PillPal Pro - 一款智能盒子解决方案，通过 ESP32 微控制器确保老年患者遵循用药习惯，实现跟踪和通知功能，整合了 3D 打印外壳和 Firebase 功能。

• ReCall.ai - 该项目利用 AI 和可穿戴技术为认知障碍人士识别人脸，支持社交互动，并提供跨多种设施的认知健康洞察。

• HealthSync - 通过分配患者紧急程度评分并利用点对点网络和高级数据安全进行安全的实时信息交换，增强医院协调。

• Medbank - 提供个性化健康钱包，实现医疗信息和保险详情的管理，利用 AI 进行智能保险处理和地理空间分析实现供应商匹配。

• HormoniQ - 通过一款机器学习工具分析健康记录中的激素模式，解决 PCOS 诊断挑战，为医疗保健提供者提供早期干预可能性。

• World Translationator 5000 - 使用量子自然语言处理技术进行准确翻译，以解决医疗中的语言障碍。

Education and Interaction Prize Winners

• CrystalMath - 一个通过分步动画和语音解说可视化数学问题的 AI 驱动平台，使用 Claude 模型计算和 AWS 托管。

Finance Prize Winners

• Stratify - 提供一个 AI 驱动的股票回溯测试工具，通过详细分析和用户友好的模拟优化投资策略。

• Asteroid Audit - 通过游戏化的体验提供税务教育，整合 Unity 进行游戏开发，并使用自定义算法进行视觉税务估算。

• Orbital Finance - 使用 AI 语音助手技术进行实时客户互动，通过 MATLAB 和 NLP 提供深入的数据分析，助力业务增长。

Sustainability Prize Winners

• WasteWise - 使用计算机视觉和 GPT-4 API 分析垃圾数据，通过品牌和可回收性评价引导可持续的消费者习惯。

• SustainAI - 一个 AI 驱动的平台，根据用户数据提供个性化的可持续生活方式建议，利用 MATLAB 进行上下文数据个性化。

Developer Tool Prize Winners

• Scraply - 提供一个拖放界面简化深度学习教育，用于构建神经网络，具有算法建议和游戏化学习功能。

Financial Innovation Prize Winners

• Chama - 提供实时洞察平台，通过情感分析和可操作建议促进加密货币教育，整合 OnChainKit 进行安全交易。

• HackAwards - 通过项目所有权和贡献跟踪，使用 VerbWire API 和 Base Blockchain 实现高效处理，促进 Hackathon 参与。

浏览所有项目及更多详情请访问 HackPrinceton Fall 2024。

关于主办方：

HackPrinceton

HackPrinceton 将全球的黑客聚集在一起进行合作和创新。以沉浸式活动闻名，该组织提供研讨会、讲座和指导项目，促进技能发展和创新思维。这些活动为参与者提供了创造有影响力项目的必要工具，即使对那些没有初步团队或项目想法的人也是如此。HackPrinceton 致力于培养创造力，通过其全面支持为有抱负的创新者提供帮助，其使命是激发有影响力和创新性想法的生成。更多信息请访问 HackPrinceton 的网站。

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

How to Make a Peanut Butter Sandwich Step by Step

Are you looking for a quick and easy snack? Look no further than the classic peanut butter sandwich! This how-to guide will walk you through the simple steps to make a delicious peanut butter sandwich.

Things you'll need:

• 2 slices of bread
• Peanut butter
• A knife

Instructions

1. Choose your bread: Start by selecting your favorite type of bread. White, wheat, or sourdough are all great options.
2. Spread the peanut butter: Take one slice of bread and evenly spread a generous amount of peanut butter on it. You can use as much or as little as you like, depending on your preference.
3. Add the second slice of bread: Place the second slice of bread on top of the peanut butter, with the bread side facing down.
4. Press down gently: Press down gently on the sandwich to make sure the bread slices stick together.
5. Cut the sandwich (optional): If you prefer your sandwich cut in half, use the knife to carefully cut it down the middle.

And there you have it! A delicious peanut butter sandwich that's ready to enjoy. Whether you're packing it for lunch or enjoying it as a snack, this classic sandwich is sure to hit the spot.

@ 6e24af77:b3f1350b

test

@ 0b14a03f:3f0257c2

In 1925, someone said, "Let's stop making light bulbs that last 2,500 hours; let's make them last 1,000 instead so we can grow our profits."

Then the internet was created, and what happened? Everything on it was commercialized, even ourselves.

After that, Bitcoin appeared. What did we do? We treated it as a fiat currency and created the same old financial vehicles around it.

What today is Wall Street, in the past, it was located in Holland. After that, something similar was in France. They both disappeared, but humans replicated it in the US. We're now seeing how it will collapse.. once again.

Thus, repeating the same things and thinking that we will obtain different results is a bit childish.

It takes much more energy to create something -new.

A lot of energy from the brain to create new neurological patterns, as well as, a lot of energy from the reality to manifest it.

However, aren't we sick of the same old things already?

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

bitcoinstandard.rs

---

PREUZMITE ODLOMAK

KUPITE KNJIGU

Autor Bitkoin standarda, ekonomista Sajfedin Amus, vešto uvodi svakog čitaoca u svet digitalnog novca pokazujući da bitkoin može da postane dominantni čuvar vrednosti u budućnosti, a jedna od glavnih snaga knjige je njena sposobnost da objasni kompleksne ekonomske i tehničke aspekte bitkoina na razumljiv i jednostavan način.

Sajfedin Amus prvo prikazuje fascinantnu istoriju tehnologija novca i istražuje šta je tim tehnologijama dalo njihovu monetarnu ulogu, kako su je izgubile, šta nas to uči o poželjnim osobinama novca i kako je bitkoin osmišljen da unapredi te tehnologije. Amus zatim objašnjava ekonomske, društvene, kulturne i političke prednosti zdravog novca u odnosu na nezdrav novac kako bi omogućio relevantnu raspravu o ulozi koju bi bitkoin mogao imati u digitalnoj ekonomiji budućnosti. Umesto kao valuta za kriminalce ili jeftina masovna mreža za plaćanja, ova knjiga pokazuje kako bitkoin izrasta kao decentralizovana, politički neutralna, slobodnotržišna alternativa nacionalnim centralnim bankama, sa potencijalno ogromnim implikacijama za individualnu slobodu i prosperitet.

Sa ovim osnovama, knjiga prelazi na objašnjenje funkcionisanja bitkoina na lak i intuitivan način. Bitkoin je decentralizovani, distribuirani softver koji omogućava svojim korisnicima da koriste internet za obavljanje tradicionalnih funkcija novca bez oslanjanja na bilo kakve autoritete ili infrastrukturu u fizičkom svetu. Bitkoin se tako najbolje razume kao prvi uspešno implementirani oblik digitalne gotovine i digitalnog tvrdog novca – digitalni oblik zlata.

Amusovo čvrsto razumevanje tehnoloških mogućnosti kao i istorijskih realnosti evolucije novca omogućava istraživanje posledica dobrovoljnog slobodnog tržišta novca. Izazivajući najsvetije državne monopole, bitkoin pomera klatno suvereniteta od vlada ka pojedincima, nudeći nam primamljivu mogućnost sveta u kojem je novac potpuno odvojen od politike i nesputan granicama.

Završno poglavlje knjige istražuje neka od najčešćih pitanja u vezi sa bitkoinom: Da li je rudarenje bitkoina rasipanje energije? Da li je bitkoin za kriminalce? Ko kontroliše bitkoin i mogu li ga promeniti ako žele? Kako se bitkoin može uništiti? I šta misliti o svim hiljadama kopija bitkoina i mnogim navodnim primenama bitkoinove „blockchain tehnologije“?

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Originalni tekst na net.hr

05.12.2024 / Autor: Katarina Plantak

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Vrijednost Bitcoina po prvi put je premašila 100.000 dolara. Ova kriptovaluta svoj masovni rast može na neki način zahvaliti reizboru Donalda Trumpa za američkog predsjednika. On je najavio blaži regulatorni pristup kripto industriji.

Što je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC) je kriptovaluta (virtualna valuta) dizajnirana da djeluje kao novac i oblik plaćanja izvan kontrole bilo koje osobe, grupe ili entiteta. Time nema potrebe za sudjelovanjem pouzdane treće strane npr. kovnice novca ili banke u financijskim transakcijama. Osoba ili grupa pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto 31. listopada 2008. objavila je tehnički dokument pod nazivom "Bitcoin: Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". Taj je dokument distribuiran na kriptografsku mailing listu, samo mjesec dana nakon što je investicijska banka Lehman Brothers podnijela zahtjev za najveći bankrot u povijesti SAD-a, a vlada odobrila financijsku pomoć od 700 milijardi dolara.

Nekoliko mjeseci kasnije, 3. siječnja 2009., Bitcoin mreža pokrenula se, uvodeći novi sustav decentralizirane digitalne valute bez središnjeg posrednika.

Tko su osnivači Bitcoina?

Bitcoin je rezultat desetljeća razvoja kriptografije i ideja Cypherpunka iz 1970-ih, s projektima poput B-money, Bit Gold, eCash i HashCash.

Godine 2006., osoba ili grupa pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto započela je rad na Bitcoinu. Iako su kriptografi poput Hal Finneya, Nicka Szaba, Weija Daija i Adama Backa povezivani sa Satoshijem, svi su to negirali.

Satoshi je surađivao s programerima do 2010., kada je predao kontrolu nad izvornim kodom i 2011. nestao iz javnosti. Danas stotine programera razvijaju Bitcoin, koji ima zajednicu od milijun korisnika.

Kako funkcionira Bitcoin?

Bitcoin se može brzo i sigurno prenijeti na svakoga s Bitcoin adresom poput računa bilo gdje u svijetu, bez potrebe za dopuštenjem ili plaćanjem nepotrebnih naknada. BTC je jedinica valute u Bitcoin sustavu za koju postoji ograničena količina od 21 milijun. Svaki je Bitcoin djeljiv na 100 milijuna "satoshis" ili "sats" – najmanja jedinica Bitcoina, poput centa u dolaru. Bitcoini djeluju kao elektronički novac, omogućujući vam da izvršite plaćanje s univerzalnom valutom bilo gdje. Nalazi se u tzv. novčanicima u digitalnoj verziji. On funkcionira slično kao bankovni račun. Transakcije su moguće zahvaljujući peer-to-peer mreži. Osigurane su sustavom kriptografije javnog i privatnog ključa, objašnjava Kriptomat.

Bitcoin koristi kriptografiju javnog i privatnog ključa za sigurne transakcije. Javna adresa, izvedena iz "hasha" javnog ključa, koristi se za primanje sredstava. Privatni ključ služi kao digitalni potpis odnosno svojevrsna lozinka za autorizaciju transakcija i omogućava pristup sredstvima, pa ga treba čuvati u tajnosti.

Korisnik pokreće transakciju unosom javne adrese primatelja u svoj novčanik. Novčanik koristi privatni ključ za stvaranje digitalnog potpisa, čime se transakcija ovjerava i šalje na Bitcoin mrežu. Transakcija prvo ulazi u "mempool", gdje čeka potvrdu. Svakih desetak minuta, transakcije se grupiraju u blokove, koji se dodaju na blockchain, stvarajući neprekinuti lanac sigurnih zapisa.

Sigurnost sustava je toliko snažna da bi hakiranje jedne adrese trajalo milijardama godina.

Blockchain

Bitcoin je revolucionarno riješio problem dvostruke potrošnje, omogućujući prijenos sredstava izravno između korisnika bez posrednika. Zamislite mrežu stranaca, gdje svaki vodi vlastitu knjigu računa. Kada netko prenese 1 BTC, svi zapisuju transakciju i uspoređuju bilješke. Ako se sve podudaraju, transakcija se potvrđuje. Ako netko pokuša prevariti, njegova bilješka se odbacuje.

Ovaj sustav knjiga računa, distribuiran na globalnoj mreži, čini osnovu Bitcoin blockchaina. Svaki čvor ima identičnu kopiju koja javno i pseudonimno bilježi sve transakcije, osiguravajući točnost i sigurnost bez potrebe za skupim posrednicima.

Zašto je Bitcoin jedinstven i što mu daje vrijednost?

Bitcoin je revolucionirao digitalni novac stvaranjem decentraliziranog, sigurnog i otpornog sustava bez potrebe za posrednicima. Njegov kod omogućuje daljnje inovacije, a povremeno dolazi do "račvanja" koje stvara nove kriptovalute temeljene na Bitcoinu, iako one nikada ne mogu biti isti Bitcoin.

Njegova ključna snaga leži u decentralizaciji – nema središnje figure niti točke neuspjeha. Bitcoin se pokazao kao otporan na izazove, uključujući državne zabrane i snažna račvanja, što dodatno učvršćuje njegovu dugovječnost prema Lindyjevom efektu. Mrežni učinak potiče sve više korisnika da ga prihvate kao sredstvo za pohranu vrijednosti i razmjenu.

Njegova ograničena ponuda od 21 milijun BTC-a stvara oskudicu, čime se suprotstavlja inflacijskim valutama. Bitcoin je zamjenjiv, djeljiv na 100 milijuna dijelova, izdržljiv i prenosiv, što ga čini praktičnijim od zlata. S rastućim prihvaćanjem od strane tvrtki diljem svijeta, njegova vrijednost i korisnost nastavljaju rasti.

Blokovi, rudarenje i nagrade

Prvi Bitcoinblock izrudiran je 3. siječnja 2009. godine. Nazvan je Blok 0. Rudarenje Bitcoina je utrka između rudara za raspršivanje specifičnih vrijednosti i drugih informacija o bloku kako bi se pronašlo rješenje za problem raspršivanja i dodalo blok u blockchain. Pobjednički rudar nagrađen je Bitcoinima. Bitcoin nagrade se prepolovljuju svakih 210.000 blokova. Na primjer, nagrada za blok bila je 50 novih bitcoina u 2009. godini, a 11. svibnja 2020. kad se dogodilo treće prepolovljenje nagrada za svaki blok smanjena je na 6.25 bitcoina. Četvrto prepolovljenje dogodilo se u travnju 2024. i smanjilo je nagradu na 3.125 Bitcoina. Sljedeće prepolovljavanje trebalo bi se dogoditi sredinom 2028. i smanjiti nagradu na 1.5625 BTC.

Do 2140. godine, nakon 32. prepolovljenja, nagrada za rudarenje Bitcoina smanjit će se na nulu, dosegnuvši ukupnu ponudu od 21 milijun BTC-a. Tada će se rudari oslanjati isključivo na naknade za transakcije kako bi pokrili svoje troškove.

Svako prepolovljenje smanjuje količinu novih BTC-a, što povijesno dovodi do porasta cijene zbog smanjene ponude i povećane potražnje. Iako će se učinak budućih prepolovljenja možda smanjivati zbog sve manjih količina nove ponude, do sada su ta prepolovljenja bila ključni pokretači triju glavnih tržišnih ciklusa Bitcoina.

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Originalni tekst na antenam.net

31.10.2024 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Godišnjica objavljivanja revolucionarnog dokumenta nije samo podsjetnik na nastanak Bitcoina, već i na značajnu promjenu koju je donio u načinu na koji razmišljamo o novcu i ekonomskom suverenitetu. Njegov značaj premašuje ideju o zaradi na promjeni njegove vrijednosti, jer otvara vrata širem razumijevanju digitalne imovine i decentralizovanih finansija koje inspirišu moderno bankarstvo i platne sisteme da se razvijaju u drugačijem smjeru, povećavajući svijest o sigurnosti i dostupnosti.

Šesnaest je godina od objavljivanja dokumenta naslovljenog kao "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", poznatog i kao „biijeli papir“ (white paper) u kojem su izloženi koncept i svrha novog sistema digitalne valute – sistema koji bi funkcionisao nezavisno od bilo koje vlade ili finansijske institucije. Bijeli papir, kojeg je 31. oktobra 2008. objavio pojedinac ili tim ljudi pod imenom Satoši Nakamoto ponudio je smjelo rješenje za sve veći problem – kontrolu valute centralnih banaka i sve veće poteškoće u prenošenju vrijednosti preko interneta bez posrednika. Ovaj trenutak označio je nastanak Bitcoina, revolucionarne digitalne valute i prve kriptovalute na svijetu koja je kasnije lansirana 3. januara 2009. godine.

Bitcoin je nastao u vrijeme finansijske krize 2008. godine, u periodu kada je povjerenje u tradicionalne finansijske sisteme bilo na izuzetno niskom nivou. Ljudi su počeli da se pitaju da li postoji način za upravljanje novcem koji ne zavisi od banaka, koje, kao što su tadašnji događaji pokazali, mogu propasti ili djelovati na načine koji nijesu u najboljem interesu javnosti. Nakamotova inovacija, Bitcoin, bila je zamišljena kao sistem u kojem korisnici mogu direktno slati i primati novac, zaobilazeći potrebu za bankama. U tom procesu, Nakamoto je svijetu predstavio novu tehnologiju kojoj je kasnije američki naučnik i programer Harold Fini dao naziv blockchain – decentralizovan i otporan na manipulacije način za evidentiranje transakcija.

Šta je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je vrsta digitalne valute koja omogućava ljudima da direktno jedni drugima šalju i primaju vrijednost putem interneta. Za razliku od tradicionalnih valuta, kao što je euro ili dolar, koje kontrolišu vlade i banke, Bitcoin funkcioniše bez centralne vlasti. To znači da nema nikoga ko je zadužen za njega i nema banke koja odlučuje kako se može koristiti. Umjesto toga, Bitcoin se oslanja na veliku mrežu računara širom svijeta koja ga održava i bilježi njegove transakcije. Ova mreža je poznata kao „Bitcoin mreža“.

Kako Bitcoin funkcioniše?

U suštini, Bitcoin funkcioniše kao „decentralizovana digitalna valuta“. Kada kažemo decentralizovana, mislimo da nijedna osoba, kompanija ili vlada ne kontroliše Bitcoin. Umjesto toga, svaka transakcija se bilježi na zajedničkoj knjizi, nazvanoj blockchain, koju održava mreža računara širom svijeta. Svaki put kada neko pošalje ili primi Bitcoin, transakcija se grupiše sa drugima i dodaje u ovaj lanac blokova. Budući da je ovaj lanac kopiran i dijeljen među brojnim računarima, gotovo je neizvodljivo izmijeniti ili hakovati ga, čime se osigurava da Bitcoin transakcije budu bezbjedne i pouzdane.

Još jedan interesantan aspekt je da Bitcoin ima ograničenu ponudu. Kreiran je samo 21 milion bitcoina, što ga čini rijetkom imovinom i sprečava inflaciju na način na koji to može biti slučaj sa tradicionalnim valutama koje se „doštampavaju“. Bitcoin transakcije su omogućene kroz skup kriptografskih pravila, koja ljudima omogućavaju da potvrde svaku transakciju kao legitimnu bez potrebe da vjeruju trećoj strani. Ovaj skup pravila je poznat kao kriptografija, zbog čega se Bitcoin naziva kriptovalutom – prvom koja je ikada stvorena i jedinom koja u potpunosti ima sve karakteristike onoga što je istinska ideja i svrha postojanja kriptovaluta.

Razumijevanje finansijske revolucije Bitcoina

Bitcoin, predstavljen 2008. godine, privukao je globalnu pažnju kao decentralizovana digitalna valuta koja funkcioniše nezavisno od banaka i vlada, ali pored svoje peer-to-peer arhitekture i decentralizovane infrastrukture, on ima jedinstvenu finansijsku karakteristiku – inherentno je deflatoran. Za razliku od fiat valuta poput dolara ili eura, koje centralne banke mogu štampati kada procijene da je to potrebno, ponuda Bitcoina je ograničena, fiksirana i ne povećava se. Ova deflatorna osobina navela je mnoge da ga vide kao revolucionarni finansijski instrument, „digitalno zlato“ koje bi moglo da preoblikuje koncepte vrijednosti, očuvanja bogatstva i monetarne politike.

Fiksna ponuda – limit od 21 miliona

Najkarakterističnija odlika Bitcoina je njegova ograničena ponuda. Kada je Satoši Nakamoto kreirao Bitcoin, postavio je ograničenje na ukupan broj bitcoina koji će ikada postojati – 21 milion. Ovo ograničenje se oštro razlikuje od tradicionalnih fiat valuta, gdje centralne banke mogu povećavati ponudu novca štampanjem dodatne količine. Postavljanjem ovog ograničenja, Nakamoto je osigurao da Bitcoin postane sve rjeđi vremenom, karakteristika koja je dizajnirana za očuvanje vrijednosti kako potražnja raste.

U tradicionalnim finansijama, valute mogu izgubiti vrijednost kada se previše štampaju, što se može vidjeti u slučajevima inflacije. Bitcoinov dizajn, međutim, znači da, kada se posljednji Bitcoin izrudari (što se predviđa oko 2140. godine), novi novčići neće ulaziti u cirkulaciju, što ga efektivno čini prvom deflatornom valutom u velikom obimu.

Mehanizam smanjenje ponude tokom vremena

Oskudica Bitcoina dodatno se pojačava procesom nazvanim „halving“ (prepolovljenje), koji smanjuje stopu stvaranja novih bitcoina. Približno svake četiri godine nagrada koju „rudari“ dobijaju za dodavanje novih blokova u blockchain se prepolovi. Ovaj mehanizam smanjuje mogućnost inflacije Bitcoina tokom vremena, stvarajući predvidivo, postepeno smanjenje ponude.

U početku su rudari dobijali 50 bitcoina po bloku. Nakon prvog halvinga 2012. godine, nagrada je pala na 25, a do 2020. smanjila se na 6,25 bitcoina po bloku. Ovaj proces halvinga će se nastaviti sve do približno 2140. godine, kada će svih 21 milion bitcoina biti u cirkulaciji, a rudari će biti podstaknuti isključivo transakcionim naknadama, umjesto novim novčićima. Halving ima dva osnovna učinka – usporava rast ponude Bitcoina i stvara predvidivu oskudicu koja može podstaći tražnju, jer učesnici na tržištu znaju da će sa svakim ciklusom biti sve manje dostupnih bitcoina.

Zašto je Bitcoin važan?

Većina tradicionalnih valuta je inflaciona po dizajnu. Centralne banke teže kontrolisanoj stopi inflacije, često oko 2%, kako bi podstakle ekonomski rast, ohrabrile potrošnju i pružile fleksibilnost u odgovoru na ekonomske krize. Međutim, ova inflacija može potkopati kupovnu moć fiat valuta vremenom, što je zabrinjavajuće tokom perioda prekomjernog štampanja novca, kao što su mjere i programi kvantitativnog popuštanja viđene posljednjih godina.

Bitcoinov deflatorni dizajn je revolucionaran u ovom kontekstu jer nudi potencijalnu zaštitu od inflacije. Sa fiksnom ponudom, Bitcoin može da dobija na vrijednosti tokom vremena, posebno ako potražnja raste jer postaje rjeđi. Za mnoge, deflatorni model Bitcoina čini ga privlačnim sredstvom za očuvanje bogatstva na način koji tradicionalne valute i imovina ne mogu da ponude.

Pored toga, ovaj model izazvao je promjenu čitave filozofije u načinu na koji ljudi razmišljaju o novcu, investiranju i štednji. Dok tradicionalne finansije podstiču potrošnju i investicije kroz inflaciju, deflatorna priroda Bitcoina može podstaći štednju, jer bi njegova vrijednost mogla da raste u budućnosti. Ovaj kvalitet „čuvara vrijednosti“ naveo je mnoge da Bitcoinu daju naziv „digitalno zlato“.

Ekonomija oskudice – ono što Bitcoinu daje vrijednost

U ekonomiji, oskudica obično povećava vrijednost, jer tražnja za ograničenim resursom može povećati njegovu cijenu. Zlato je, na primjer, dugo bilo čuvar vrijednosti zbog svoje oskudice i poteškoća u vađenju. Bitcoin odražava ovaj koncept u digitalnom svijetu. Inherentno je rijedak zbog ograničenja od 21 milion, i, kao zlato, zahtijeva trud (kroz digitalno rudarenje) da bi ušao u cirkulaciju.

Pored toga, oskudica Bitcoina postaje sve izraženija kako raste interesovanje institucija i pojedinaca. Mnogi investitori privučeni su Bitcoinom kao dugoročnom imovinom upravo zbog ove fiksne ponude, oslanjajući se na to da će rastuća tražnja naspram ograničene ponude povećati njegovu vrijednost tokom vremena. Ova privlačnost je pojačana u regionima sa brzom inflacijom ili ekonomskom nestabilnošću, gdje rizik od devalvacije čini Bitcoin privlačnom alternativom za očuvanje bogatstva.

Bitcoin kao globalni čuvar vrijednosti

Osim što je sredstvo razmjene, deflatorna priroda Bitcoina pozicionira ga kao potencijalni globalni čuvar vrijednosti. Zlato je istorijski imalo ovu ulogu, jer su ga koristili pojedinci, institucije i vlade kao zaštitu od ekonomske nestabilnosti i inflacije. Bitcoin postaje moderni pandan tome, posebno privlačan mlađim generacijama i investitorima sklonim tehnologiji, koji ga vide kao superiornu alternativu.

Deflatorni dizajn takođe omogućava Bitcoinu da prelazi međunarodne granice i nadilazi lokalne ekonomske uslove. U zemljama koje prolaze kroz valutne krize, Bitcoin nudi alternativu koja je bez granica i nezavisna od politika centralne banke. Ova sposobnost da djeluje kao čuvar vrijednosti posebno je značajna na tržištima i ekonomijama u razvoju, gdje je valutna nestabilnost učestalija.

Može li oskudica Bitcoina predstavljati rizik?

Iako deflatorni model Bitcoina ima svoje prednosti, nije bez kritika. Jedna od zabrinutosti je da ekstremna deflacija može obeshrabriti potrošnju. U sistemu gdje vrijednost valute raste tokom vremena, ljudi mogu preferirati štednju umjesto potrošnje ili investiranja, što može dovesti do smanjenja ekonomske aktivnosti. Ekonomisti brinu da bi, ako Bitcoin postane široko prihvaćena valuta, njegova deflatorna priroda mogla ugroziti ekonomski rast podsticanjem „gomilanja“ umesto cirkulacije.

Još jedna kritika se odnosi na fiksnu ponudu Bitcoina u ekonomiji koja stalno raste. Tradicionalne valute su inflatorne kako bi pratile rast populacije, ekonomije i produktivnosti. Sa ograničenom ponudom, Bitcoin ne može da raste u skladu sa ekonomskim razvojem, što bi u teoriji moglo izazvati probleme sa likvidnošću u ekonomiji zasnovanoj na Bitcoinu. Ipak, kako ideja nije da Bitcoin bude jedino sredstvo plaćanja, strah od takvog scenarija je neutemeljen, budući da ekosistem u kojem funkcioniše koegzistira sa nizom drugih platnih sistemna koji su na raspolaganju širom svijeta.

Eliminiše problem dvostrukog trošenja

U svijetu novca postoji veliki problem koji se naziva „dvostruko trošenje“. Zamislite da možete potrošiti iste eure dvaput – platite jedan proizvod ili uslugu, a zatim, nekako, uspijete da ga ponovo potrošite na nešto drugo. U fizičkom svijetu ovo nije problem, ali u računovodstvenom jeste. Ako kao fizičku valutu u gotovini platite nešto, ta količina novca odlazi iz vašeg novčanika, ali u bankovnim transakcijama stvari funkcionišu drugačije.

Da bi se osiguralo da Bitcoin ne može biti kopiran ili potrošen dvaput, koristi se tehnologija zvana blockchain. Nakamotov Bijeli papir još nije pomenuo taj izraz, jer mu je naziv dat nekoliko dana kasnije, no umjesto toga, opisao je koncept „lanca blokova“, postavljajući sistem za evidentiranje transakcija u blokovima koji su međusobno povezani. Ovaj koncept je kasnije postao poznat kao blockchain, termin koji je nastao nakon izdavanja Bitcoina dok su ljudi pokušavali da imenuju osnovnu tehnologiju. Fokus Bijelog papira bio je na tome kako Bitcoin može bezbjedno pratiti i potvrđivati transakcije, koristeći ovaj povezani lanac blokova kao neku vrstu digitalne knjige.

Pristup iz Bijelog papira uveo je revolucionarnu ideju – zajedničku, otpornu na manipulacije evidenciju koja se nije oslanjala na centralnu vlast za ažuriranje ili verifikaciju. Ovaj sistem povezanih blokova (ono što sada nazivamo blockchain) postao je osnova Bitcoina i, kasnije, bezbroj drugih primjena u finansijama, tehnologiji i brojnim drugim oblastima.

Ova baza je poput ogromne digitalne knjige, ili evidencije, u kojoj je svaka Bitcoin transakcija (prenosa novca od jednog do drugog korisnika) zabilježena. Ono što ovu digitalnu evidenciju čini posebnom jeste to što nije smještena na jednom mjestu, niti je pod kontrolom jedne osobe ili institucije – ona je u potpunosti decentralizovana, što znači da se kopije ove knjige čuvaju na hiljadama računara širom svijeta, a svi oni moraju da se saglase oko toga koje transakcije su validne.

Svaki put kada neko pošalje Bitcoin drugoj osobi, ova transakcija se dodaje u blockchain. Da bi se dodala, grupa računara (nazvana „rudari“) mora da verifikuje da je ova transakcija stvarna, što znači da Bitcoin koji se troši već nije korišćen drugdje. Ovi rudari rade zajedno, koristeći složene matematičke operacije, kako bi potvrdili transakcije. Kada se verifikuje, transakcija se dodaje u blockchain, a cijela mreža se ažurira kako bi prepoznala ovu transakciju kao legitimnu. Ovaj proces osigurava da nijedan Bitcoin ne može biti potrošen dvaput, rješavajući problem dvostrukog trošenja.

Peer-to-Peer transakcije bez posrednika

Još jedan veliki razlog zašto je Bitcoin važan je taj što omogućava ljudima da šalju novac direktno jedni drugima bez potrebe za posrednikom. Recimo da želite da pošaljete novac prijatelju koji živi u drugoj zemlji. Obično biste otišli u svoju banku, koja bi se povezala s drugom bankom u toj zemlji, što može trajati danima i uključivati različite naknade.

Međutim, Bitcoin je omogućio da se direktno pošalju sredstva, bez obzira na to gdje se nalazite u svijetu. Pošto je u pitanju peer-to-peer (P2P) način razmjene, nema potrebe za posrednikom da upravlja transakcijom. To može učiniti transakcije bržim i ponekad jeftinijim, posebno kada se sredstva šalju međunarodno. Ova P2P struktura je jedan od glavnih razloga zbog kojih ljudi se na ovaj oblik imovine gleda kao na alternativu složenim transakcijama, posebno važnim za društva i sredine u kojima je dostupnost finansijskih usluga niska.

Transparentnost i sigurnost

U svijetu tradicionalnog bankarstva, ljudi se oslanjaju na banke koje drže novac sigurnim i omogućavaju da transakcije budu poštene i sigurne. Međutim, s Bitcoinom, povjerenje nije smešteno u centralnu banku ili kompaniju, već u samu Bitcoin mrežu, koju održavaju svi računari koji prate blockchain. Pošto je blockchain javan i može ga provjeriti bilo ko, on je veoma transparentan. Svaka transakcija koja je ikada obavljena Bitcoinom zabilježena je u ovoj javnoj knjizi, tako da ako neko pokuša da prevari sistem, to bi bilo očigledno svima.

Transparentnost Bitcoina takođe ga čini veoma sigurnim. Pošto svi u mreži imaju kopiju blockchaina, bilo bi gotovo nemoguće da jedna osoba ili čak grupa ljudi izmijeni ili preuzme kontrolu nad njim. Da biste promijenili blockchain, morali biste kontrolisati više od polovine svih računara širom svijeta u Bitcoin mreži, što je izuzetno teško. Ovaj nivo sigurnosti, u kombinaciji s transparentnošću, pomaže ljudima da se osjećaju sigurno koristeći Bitcoin.

Značaj za razvoj finansija

Tokom godina, Bitcoin je postao više od eksperimenta u digitalnom novcu. Inspirisao je hiljade drugih kreatora latnih rješenja i pokrenuo važne razgovore o budućnosti novca, povjerenja i tehnologije. Kako sve više ljudi počinje da preispituje kako tradicionalne banke funkcionišu i traži nove načine za upravljanje svojim finansijama, Bitcoin ostaje snažna opcija ne samo u smislu alternative, već mogućnosti povezivanja njegove funkcionalnosti sa onim što već postoji u finansijskoj tehnologiji. Njegov značaj je u tome što predstavlja potpuno novi način razmišljanja o novcu i njegovom korišćenju i što rješava neke od ključnih problema koji su karakteristični finansijske sisteme.

Ideja decentralizacije

U mnogim sistemima koje danas koristimo postoji centralna vlast – banka, vlada ili kompanija – koja ima kontrolu i koja donosi pravila, odlučuje ko ima pristup i odobrava aktivnosti, što je prilično spor i skup proces u cjelini. Koncept Bitcoina je drugačiji jer je decentralizovan, a to znači da ne postoji jedna osoba, banka ili organizacija koja donosi odluke, već je to prepušteno mreži koju čine milioni korisničkih uređaja na mreži koji održavaju sistem u funkciji.

Pored toga, decentralizacija onemogućava cenzurisanje, jer niko ne može da interveniše i blokira nečiji pristup ili transakcije. To čini sistem demokratskijim, omogućavajući ljudima širom svijeta da se pridruže bez traženja dozvole.

Kriptografski dokazi – vjerovanje u matematiku, a ne u ljude

Kada nešto kupite koristeći Bitcoin, ne morate se oslanjati na posrednika da verifikuje vašu transakciju. Umjesto toga, Bitcoin koristi nešto što se naziva „kriptografskim dokazom. Kriptografski dokazi su poput digitalnog ključa i brave koji čuvaju informacije sigurnima, jer se oslanjaju na složenu matematiku koja osigurava da se samo validne transakcije dodaju u blockchain, onemogućavajući falsifikovanje ili prevaru.

Kriptografski dokazi funkcionišu tako što kreiraju heš (hash) – dug i jedinstven broj, za svaki blok transakcija. Svaki heš je povezan s prethodnim, što pomaže u obezbjeđivanju cijelog lanca. Matematika iza ovog procesa je toliko složena da bi zahtijevala ogromnu računarsku moć kada bi i pokušala da je razbije. Koristeći kriptografske dokaze, Bitcoin ne zahtijeva povjerenje u ljude, već se umjesto toga, oslanja na neprobojne matematičke algoritme da osigura svaku transakciju.

Proof of Work – digitalna zagonetka koja štiti Bitcoin

Bitcoinova mreža je osigurana procesom koji se naziva Proof of Work (dokaz o radu), koji je najjednostavnije razumjeti ako ga zamislite kao izazovnu zagonetku koju računari, poznati kao „rudari“, moraju da riješe da bi dodali novi blok u blockchain. Prvi računar koji riješi zagonetku dobija priliku da doda blok i dobija nagradu u bitcoinima. Ova zagonetka je izuzetno složena i zahtijeva od rudara da koristi veliku količinu mnogo računarske snage, što je skupo u smislu vremena i energije.

U tom smislu Proof of Work čuva mrežu sigurnom, jer kad bi neko pokušao da prevari sistem ponovnim pisanjem blockchaina, morao ponovo da uradi svako izračunavanja dokaza o radu za svaki blok koji želi da izmijeni, što je praktično nemoguće. Na ovaj način Bitcoin kreira mrežni sistem u kojem je prevara previše skupa i previše složena da bi se bilo kome isplatila.

Šesnaest godina kasnije...

Bitcoin je za ovo vrijeme postao mnogo više od digitalne valute – on je simbol finansijske nezavisnosti i pokretačka snaga nove finansijske tehnologije i ekonomskih koncepata. Pokrenuo je diskusije o budućnosti novca, a inspirisao je brojne pružaoce platnih usluga, uključujući brojne banke širom svijeta i FinTech kompanije, da unapređuju poslovni model.

Zbog količine koja je u opticaju njegova upotreba kao valute ostaje ograničena u poređenju s tradicionalnim novcem, dok njegova cijena nastavlja da fluktuira u zavisnosti od tržišnih okolnosti. U tom smislu uticaj Bitcoina na finansije, tehnologiju i društvo u cjelini već je dubok, navodeći promišljenije i kreativnije istraživanje kako se vrednostima može upravljati i razmenjivati u savremenom svijetu, podstičući značaj decentralizacije i svijest o zaštiti podataka.

Iako često predstavljan kao sredstvo za „brzo bogaćenje“ ili sresdstvo za obavljanje anonimnih transakcija, motivi za njegovo kreiranje, kao i njegova uloga u finansijskom i tehnološkom svijetu potpuno se razlikuju od toga. Bitcoin je prva, najstarija, najvrednija i – u najširem smislu – po svim parametrima jedina prava, potpuno decenztralizovana kriptovaluta koja je transformisala način na koji razmišljamo o novcu, povjerenju i bezbednosti u digitalnoj eri.

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Der gut informierte Bürger denkt bei der Pandemie sofort an Intensivstationen, an die Bilder aus Bergamo und erinnert sich an die Berichterstattung damals – also muss es wohl ein Maximum gewesen sein. Manche Skeptiker behaupten jedoch das Gegenteil. Klarheit sollte ein Blick nach Wiesbaden, zum Statistischen Bundesamt, schaffen. Schließlich sitzen dort gut bezahlte Profis, die seit vielen Jahrzehnten die Sterbestatistik pflegen und veröffentlichen. Jeder Todesfall wird in Deutschland über die Standesämter exakt erfasst.

Doch die Überraschung: Das Statistische Bundesamt liefert uns auf diese einfache Frage zwei extrem unterschiedliche Antworten – ein Minimum und ein Maximum. Das Ergebnis hängt davon ab, wie tief man in die Veröffentlichungen des Bundesamtes eintaucht. Betrachtet man nur die Webseiten und Pressemitteilungen, erhält man den Eindruck eines Maximums. Schaut man jedoch etwas tiefer in die Tabellen und Rohdaten, zeigt sich plötzlich ein Minimum. Aber wie kann das sein? Beides gleichzeitig geht ja wohl kaum. Wer lügt hier – die Tabellen des Amtes oder die Pressemitteilungen? Gehen wir dieser Frage Schritt für Schritt auf den Grund.

2020: Ein historisches Maximum?

Schauen wir uns die vielen Hundert Veröffentlichungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes aus dieser Zeit an. Oder wir kürzen ab und fragen ChatGPT, da die KI auf diesen Daten trainiert wurde und das gesamte Material kennt. Die Frage an ChatGPT lautet also: Wie war das Sterbegeschehen im Jahr 2020 im Vergleich zu den Vorjahren?

ChatGPT antwortet: »Im Jahr 2020 war die Sterblichkeit in Deutschland höher als in den Jahren zuvor. Es gab eine Übersterblichkeit von etwa 982.000 Todesfällen, das sind rund 46.000 mehr als der Durchschnitt der Vorjahre (2016 bis 2019). Dieser Anstieg wurde überwiegend im Zusammenhang mit der COVID-19-Pandemie gesehen. Während die Sterbezahlen in den Vorjahren schwankten, war ein solch signifikanter Anstieg wie 2020 bisher nicht zu beobachten.«

Wir fragen konkreter: Ist es ein Fakt, dass wir eine so ernste Lage im Sterbegeschehen wie im Frühjahr 2020 noch nie erlebt haben?

ChatGPT bestätigt: »Ja, die COVID-19-Pandemie führte im Frühjahr 2020 zu einer außergewöhnlichen Situation im Sterbegeschehen in Deutschland. Die dramatische Übersterblichkeit, die ab der 13. Kalenderwoche auftrat, veranlasste das Statistische Bundesamt, besonders eindringliche Warnungen zu veröffentlichen. Der damalige Vizepräsident des Amtes und andere führende Stimmen wiesen öffentlich darauf hin, dass die Todesfallzahlen stark vom Durchschnitt abwichen. Diese klare Warnung richtete sich an die Öffentlichkeit und die Politik gleichermaßen. Die Medien berichteten intensiv über diese Warnungen, was das Bewusstsein für die Schwere der Pandemie erheblich schärfte. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten hatte es keine vergleichbare Übersterblichkeit gegeben, die eine solch umfangreiche Kommunikation durch das Statistische Bundesamt erforderlich gemacht hätte.«

Ein gut informierter Zeitungsleser wird sich an dieser Stelle bestätigt fühlen: Ja, so war es damals. Ein Maximum im Sterbegeschehen – wegen der Pandemie. Oder etwa nicht?

2020: Ein historisches Minimum?

Tauchen wir in die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes ein. Die Tabellen, die das Amt seit Jahrzehnten verlässlich veröffentlicht, nennen sich Sterbetafeln. Diese werden jährlich bereitgestellt und stehen auf der Website des Bundesamtes zum Download bereit. Ein erster Blick in die Sterbetafeln mag den Laien abschrecken, doch mit einer kurzen Erklärung wird alles verständlich. Wir gehen schrittweise vor.

Nehmen wir die Sterbetafel des Jahres 2017. Sie enthält zwei große Tabellen – eine für Männer und eine für Frauen. Jede Zeile der Tabelle steht für einen Jahrgang, zum Beispiel zeigt die Zeile 79 die Daten der 79-jährigen Männer. Besonders wichtig ist nun die zweite Spalte, in der der Wert 0,05 eingetragen ist. Das bedeutet, dass 5 Prozent der 79-jährigen Männer im Jahr 2017 verstorben sind. Das ist die wichtige Kennzahl. Wenn wir diesen exakten Wert, den man auch als Sterberate bezeichnet, nun in ein Säulendiagramm eintragen, erhalten wir eine leicht verständliche visuelle Darstellung (Grafik 1).

Es ist wichtig zu betonen, dass dieser Wert weder ein Schätzwert noch eine Modellrechnung oder Prognose ist, sondern ein exakter Messwert, basierend auf einer zuverlässigen Zählung. Sterberaten (für die Fachleute auch Sterbewahrscheinlichkeiten qx) sind seit Johann Peter Süßmilch (1707–1767) der Goldstandard der Sterbestatistik. Jeder Aktuar wird das bestätigen. Fügen wir nun die Sterberaten der 79-jährigen Männer aus den Jahren davor und danach hinzu, um das Gesamtbild zu sehen (Grafik 2). Und nun die entscheidende Frage: Zeigt das Jahr 2020 ein Maximum oder ein Minimum?

Ein kritischer Leser könnte vermuten, dass die 79-jährigen Männer eine Ausnahme darstellen und andere Jahrgänge im Jahr 2020 ein Maximum zeigen würden. Doch das trifft nicht zu. Kein einziger Jahrgang verzeichnete im Jahr 2020 ein Maximum. Im Gegenteil: Auch die 1-Jährigen, 2-Jährigen, 3-Jährigen, 9-Jährigen, 10-Jährigen, 15-Jährigen, 18-Jährigen und viele weitere männliche Jahrgänge hatten ihr Minimum im Jahr 2020. Dasselbe gilt bei den Frauen. Insgesamt hatten 31 Jahrgänge ihr Minimum im Jahr 2020. Wenn wir schließlich alle Jahrgänge in einer einzigen Grafik zusammenfassen, ergibt sich ein klares Bild: Das Minimum im Sterbegeschehen lag im Jahr 2020 (Grafik 3).

Ein kritischer Leser könnte nun wiederum vermuten, dass es innerhalb des Jahres 2020 möglicherweise starke Ausschläge nach oben bei einzelnen Jahrgängen gegeben haben könnte, die später durch Ausschläge nach unten ausgeglichen wurden – und dass diese Schwankungen in der jährlichen Übersicht nicht sichtbar sind. Doch auch das trifft nicht zu. Ein Blick auf die wöchentlichen Sterberaten zeigt, dass die ersten acht Monate der Pandemie keine nennenswerten Auffälligkeiten aufweisen. Es bleibt dabei: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes bestätigen zweifelsfrei, dass die ersten acht Monate der Pandemie das historische Minimum im Sterbegeschehen darstellen. (Für die Fachleute sei angemerkt, dass im gleichen Zeitraum die Lebenserwartung die historischen Höchststände erreicht hatte – Grafik 4.)

So konstruierte das Amt aus einem Minimum ein Maximum:

Zur Erinnerung: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes, die in den jährlichen Sterbetafeln zweifelsfrei dokumentiert sind, zeigen für das Jahr 2020 eindeutig ein Minimum im Sterbegeschehen. Aus diesen »in Stein gemeißelten« Zahlen ein Maximum zu »konstruieren«, ohne die Rohdaten selbst zu verändern, scheint auf den ersten Blick eine unlösbare Aufgabe. Jeder Student würde an einer solchen Herausforderung scheitern. Doch das Statistische Bundesamt hat einen kreativen Weg gefunden - ein Meisterstück gezielter Manipulation. In fünf Schritten zeigt sich, wie diese Täuschung der Öffentlichkeit umgesetzt wurde:

(1) Ignorieren der Sterberaten: Die präzisen, objektiven und leicht verständlichen Sterberaten aus den eigenen Sterbetafeln wurden konsequent ignoriert und verschwiegen. Diese Daten widersprachen dem gewünschten Narrativ und wurden daher gezielt ausgeklammert.

(2) Fokus auf absolute Todeszahlen: Die Aufmerksamkeit wurde stattdessen auf die absolute Zahl der Todesfälle gelenkt. Diese wirkt allein durch ihre schiere Größe dramatisch und emotionalisiert die Diskussion. Ein entscheidender Faktor wurde dabei ignoriert: Die absolute Zahl der Todesfälle steigt aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklung jedes Jahr an. Viele Menschen verstehen diesen Zusammenhang nicht und verbinden die steigenden Zahlen fälschlicherweise mit der vermeintlichen Pandemie.

(3) Einführung der Übersterblichkeit als neue Kennzahl: Erst ab Beginn der „Pandemie“ wurde die Kennzahl "Übersterblichkeit" eingeführt – und dies mit einer fragwürdigen Methode, die systematisch überhöhte Werte lieferte. Diese Kennzahl wurde regelmäßig, oft monatlich oder sogar wöchentlich, berechnet und diente als ständige Grundlage für alarmierende Schlagzeilen.

(4) Intensive Öffentlichkeitsarbeit: Durch eine breit angelegte Kampagne wurden die manipulativen Kennzahlen gezielt in den Fokus gerückt. Pressemitteilungen, Podcasts und öffentliche Auftritte konzentrierten sich fast ausschließlich auf die absoluten Todeszahlen und die Übersterblichkeit. Ziel war es, den Eindruck einer dramatischen Situation in der Öffentlichkeit zu verstärken.

(5) Bekämpfen kritischer Stimmen: Kritiker, die die Schwächen und manipulativen Aspekte dieser Methoden aufdeckten, wurden systematisch diskreditiert. Ihre Glaubwürdigkeit und Kompetenz wurden öffentlich infrage gestellt, um das sorgsam konstruierte Narrativ zu schützen.

Ohne diesen begleitenden Statistik-Betrug wäre das gesamte Pandemie-Theater meiner Meinung nach nicht möglich gewesen. Wer aus einem faktischen Minimum ein scheinbares Maximum "erschafft", handelt betrügerisch. Die Folgen dieses Betruges sind gravierend. Denken wir an die Angst, die in der Bevölkerung geschürt wurde – die Angst, bald sterben zu müssen. Denken wir an Masken, Abstandsregeln, isolierte ältere Menschen, Kinderimpfungen und all die Maßnahmen, die unter anderem auf diese falsche Statistik zurückgehen.

Wollen wir Bürger uns das gefallen lassen?

Wenn wir als Bürger zulassen, dass ein derart offensichtlicher und nachprüfbarer Täuschungsversuch ohne Konsequenzen bleibt, dann gefährdet das nicht nur die Integrität unserer Institutionen – es untergräbt das Fundament unserer Gesellschaft. In der DDR feierte man öffentlich Planerfüllung und Übererfüllung, während die Regale leer blieben. Damals wusste jeder: Statistik war ein Propagandainstrument. Niemand traute den Zahlen, die das Staatsfernsehen verkündete.

Während der Pandemie war es anders. Die Menschen vertrauten den Mitteilungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes und des RKI – blind. Die Enthüllungen durch den "RKI-Leak" haben gezeigt, dass auch das Robert-Koch-Institut nicht der Wissenschaft, sondern den Weisungen des Gesundheitsministers und militärischen Vorgaben folgte. Warum sollte es beim Statistischen Bundesamt anders gewesen sein? Diese Behörde ist dem Innenministerium unterstellt und somit ebenfalls weisungsgebunden.

Die Beweise für Täuschung liegen offen zutage. Es braucht keinen Whistleblower, keine geheimen Enthüllungen: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes sprechen für sich. Sie sind öffentlich einsehbar – klar und unmissverständlich. Die Daten, die Tabellen, die Veröffentlichungen des Amtes selbst – sie sind die Anklageschrift. Sie zeigen, was wirklich war. Nicht mehr und nicht weniger.

Und wir? Was tun wir? Schweigen wir? Oder fordern wir endlich ein, was unser Recht ist? Wir Bürger dürfen das nicht hinnehmen. Es ist Zeit, unsere Behörden zur Rechenschaft zu ziehen. Diese Institutionen arbeiten nicht für sich – sie arbeiten für uns. Wir finanzieren sie, und wir haben das Recht, Transparenz und Verantwortung einzufordern. Manipulationen wie diese müssen aufgearbeitet werden und dürfen nie wieder geschehen. Die Strukturen, die solche Fehlentwicklungen in unseren Behörden ermöglicht haben, müssen offengelegt werden. Denn eine Demokratie lebt von Vertrauen – und Vertrauen muss verdient werden. Jeden Tag aufs Neue.

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MARCEL BARZ, Jahrgang 1975, war Offizier der Bundeswehr und studierte Wirtschafts- und Organisationswissenschaften sowie Wirtschaftsinformatik. Er war Gründer und Geschäftsführer einer Softwarefirma, die sich auf Datenanalyse und Softwareentwicklung spezialisiert hatte. Im August 2021 veröffentlichte Barz den Videovortrag »Die Pandemie in den Rohdaten«, der über eine Million Aufrufe erzielte. Seitdem macht er als "Erbsenzähler" auf Widersprüche in amtlichen Statistiken aufmerksam.

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El Mirador San Nicolás es el espacio correcto para iniciar la previa al tour por Granada, en España. Con un par de flamencos cantando con una buena guitarra acústica, se armoniza la experiencia de mi primer atardecer en la ciudad y para todos los turistas que estamos en pleno diciembre, frente a la cordillera de Sierra Nevada.

El Mirador San Nicolás es el espacio correcto para iniciar la previa al tour por Granada, en España. Con un par de flamencos cantando con una buena guitarra acústica, se armoniza la experiencia de mi primer atardecer en la ciudad y para todos los turistas que estamos en pleno diciembre, frente a la cordillera de Sierra Nevada.

\ Recordemos que Granada fue habitada en sus tiempos mozos por los árabes en el siglo VIII, durante la conquista musulmana de la Península Ibérica. Tras la fragmentación del Califato de Córdoba, en 1238, Muhammad I fundó la dinastía nazarí, dando inicio a uno de los períodos más destacados de la ciudad.

Durante la dominación nazarí, Granada floreció como un centro cultural, económico y artístico. Se construyó la majestuosa Alhambra, un espectáculo arquitectónico e ingenieril que simboliza la cumbre del arte islámico en España. Además, la ciudad destacó por ser un cosmo religioso, siendo hogar de comunidades musulmanas, cristianas y judías.

Fue así que en la reconquista, en 1492, los Reyes Católicos, Isabel y Fernando, pusieron fin a casi 800 años de dominio musulmán en la región, que incluyó la expulsión de judíos y musulmanes o su conversión al cristianismo. Aunque el dominio musulmán terminó, su legado perdura de manera viva en la ciudad con la arquitectura, la gastronomía y la cultura de Granada. La Alhambra, el Generalife y el Albaicín son testigos vivos de este pasado glorioso y constituyen un patrimonio invaluable que atrae a millones de visitantes de todo el mundo.

Ya cayendo la noche, bajando por el Albaicín, se aprecian las calles estrechas y de adoquines, con distintas puertas interesantes y entradas que hacen vivir la experiencia de un autóctono barrio árabe. Entre medio, el Balcón de San Nicolás, que te invita a ser parte del espectáculo que es ver la Alhambra de noche, que desde afuera son la invitación perfecta para disfrutar con café o un buen trago, esa postal que parece pintada por algún artista desconocido del 1.900.

Mezquita Mayor de Granada. Café en el Balcón San Nicolás. Luego del café y con un poco de calor en el cuerpo, continúa la caminata camino al centro hasta donde vas encontrando por el camino una serie de vestigios del mundo árabe que permiten reforzar que Granada seguirá siendo centro del reino nazarí. Su arquitectura es un recuerdo vivo y un encuentro con los particulares mercados que ofrecen menaje, lámparas, zapatillas y una serie de artículos que me transportan a oriente, incluyendo centros de estudios que me instan a querer volver.

Finalmente, logro llegar al centro de Granada y como bien escribió Federico García Lorca, orgulloso Granadino; «Granada está indefensa ante la gente, porque ante los halagos, nada ni nadie tiene modo de defenderse», y esta es tan solo la primera parte de un viaje en el tiempo y espacio en la grandiosa España.

Continuará…Recordemos que Granada fue habitada en sus tiempos mozos por los árabes en el siglo VIII, durante la conquista musulmana de la Península Ibérica. Tras la fragmentación del Califato de Córdoba, en 1238, Muhammad I fundó la dinastía nazarí, dando inicio a uno de los períodos más destacados de la ciudad.

Durante la dominación nazarí, Granada floreció como un centro cultural, económico y artístico. Se construyó la majestuosa Alhambra, un espectáculo arquitectónico e ingenieril que simboliza la cumbre del arte islámico en España. Además, la ciudad destacó por ser un cosmo religioso, siendo hogar de comunidades musulmanas, cristianas y judías.

Fue así que en la reconquista, en 1492, los Reyes Católicos, Isabel y Fernando, pusieron fin a casi 800 años de dominio musulmán en la región, que incluyó la expulsión de judíos y musulmanes o su conversión al cristianismo.

Aunque el dominio musulmán terminó, su legado perdura de manera viva en la ciudad con la arquitectura, la gastronomía y la cultura de Granada. La Alhambra, el Generalife y el Albaicín son testigos vivos de este pasado glorioso y constituyen un patrimonio invaluable que atrae a millones de visitantes de todo el mundo.

Ya cayendo la noche, bajando por el Albaicín, se aprecian las calles estrechas y de adoquines, con distintas puertas interesantes y entradas que hacen vivir la experiencia de un autóctono barrio árabe. Entre medio, el Balcón de San Nicolás, que te invita a ser parte del espectáculo que es ver la Alhambra de noche, que desde afuera son la invitación perfecta para disfrutar con café o un buen trago, esa postal que parece pintada por algún artista desconocido del 1.900.

Luego del café y con un poco de calor en el cuerpo, continúa la caminata camino al centro hasta donde vas encontrando por el camino una serie de vestigios del mundo árabe que permiten reforzar que Granada seguirá siendo centro del reino nazarí. Su arquitectura es un recuerdo vivo y un encuentro con los particulares mercados que ofrecen menaje, lámparas, zapatillas y una serie de artículos que me transportan a oriente, incluyendo centros de estudios que me instan a querer volver.

Finalmente, logro llegar al centro de Granada y como bien escribió Federico García Lorca, orgulloso Granadino; «Granada está indefensa ante la gente, porque ante los halagos, nada ni nadie tiene modo de defenderse», y esta es tan solo la primera parte de un viaje en el tiempo y espacio en la grandiosa España.

Continuará…

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na antenam.net

18.12.2024 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Ako ste makar djelić vremena proveli u svijetu digitalnog novca, vjerovatno ste naišli na termin HODL – uvijek napisan velikim slovima tako da na prvi pogled djeluje kao riječ sa slovnom greškom. Zapravo i jeste riječ o slovnoj grešci i to onoj koja je nastala na današnji dan prije 11 godina, a koja je uspjela ne samo da obezbijedi mjesto u istoriji svijeta novca, već i da postane naziv za jedan potpuno drugačiji pristup sredstvima koja posjedujemo.

Nespretno napisana riječ „hold“ (eng. držati, zadržati) u poruci na jednom forumu evoluirala je u akronim HODL – akronim za Hold On for Dear Life (doslovno – drži se za život, tj. drži se kao da ti život zavisi od toga), predstavlja poziv na akciju – ili, tačnije, „neakciju“ za vlasnike kriptovaluta da odole iskušenju prodaje tokom tržišnih padova. Riječ je o shvatanju da je ovaj oblik digitalne imovine bolje vremenski što duže imati u vlasništvu, kako bi se sačekao mnogo povoljniji trenutak za prodaju nego prodati ih u vremenu kada je situacija na tržištu loša.

Greška koja je postala pokret

Priča počinje 18. decembra 2013. godine, kada je cijena bitcoina tada počela da pada, a samo tokom toga dana se sa 682 na 522 dolara. Korisnik foruma pod imenom GameKyuubi objavio je sada već legendarni post pod naslovom „I AM HODLING“. Bila je to greška u kucanju, jer se na osnovu sadržaja poruke vidi da je krenuo da napiše „holding“ (držim), ali umjesto da se ispravi sebe, prigrlio je grešku, šaljivo govoreći o svom nedostatku vještina za trgovanje i zašto „bez obzira na sve“.

Bitcoin zajednica brzo je prihvatila ovaj izraz kao dio slenga. Pogrešno napisana riječ odjeknula je internet prostranstvima, a vremenom je prerasla u simbol šire filozofije – ne paniči, ne prodaj i ne dozvoli da kratkoročna nestabilnost poljulja tvoje uvjerenje. Od kasnonoćnog posta na forumu, HODL je postao poklič za vlasnike bitcoina (i drugih, u to vrijeme malobrojnih digitalnih valuta zanemarive vrijednosti) širom svijeta.

HODL-ovanje i HODL-eri

U suštini, HODL-ovanje je strategija zadržavanja kriptovaluta tokom tržišnih uspona i padova, zasnovana na uvjerenju da će cijene vremenom rasti. Umjesto impulsivnog reagovanja na tržišne fluktuacije, HODL-eri se posvećuju svojim investicijama na duže staze.

Ovaj pristup posebno je koristan za početnike, koji možda nemaju dovoljno stručnosti ili hrabrosti da se nose sa svakodnevnim trgovanjem (u čemu su često neuspješni i dugogodišnji vlasnici digitalnih novčića). Sam GameKyuubi u svom originalnom postu priznao je da samo najvještiji trgovci treba da pokušaju da „igraju igru“ tokom tržišnih padova. Za ostale, HODL-ovanje nije samo sigurnije, već je često i pametnije.

Filozofija HODL-ovanja zasnovana je na povjerenju – u budućnost kriptovaluta, u eventualni oporavak tržišta i u korist koju donosi strpljenje. To je odbijanje da se prodaje kada cijene naglo padnu – nepokolebljivo uvjerenje da su padovi privremeni i da nakon njih slijedi rast.

Zakon tržišta pokazuje da što drže HODL-ujete to se ova strategija više isplati, a cijena bitcoina u njegovoj šesnaestogodišnjoj istoriji je nesumnjivo najbolji dokaz za to. Trgovanje zahtijeva mnogo učenja, truda, vremena provedenog u praćenju svakog mogućeg signala, dok je kod HODL-ovanja važno samo da se „ne predate“.

Ako ste prethodnih godina nešto platili bitcoinom (a trgovci širom svijeta su to omogućili upravo da bi vas naveli da ih umjerite ka njima) vjerovatno ste zažalili, jer danas dok je njegova vrijednost i u dolarima i u eurima šestocifrena, ono na što ste ih potrošili ipak izgleda kao nešto što je trebalo platiti fizičkim novcem (kojeg je svakako „pojela inflacija“).

Pouzdane kriptovalute, a tu se prije svega misli na bitcoin, iako veoma volatilne bilježe trend rasta na duge staze, pa HODL-ovanje znači strpljenje u vremenu neizvjesnosti s idejom o koristi na duži rok, čak i kada su godine loše, kao što su bile 2014, 2017. i 2022. Na primjer, u periodu od 20. maja do 20. juna cijena bitcoina kliznula je sa 29.000 na 18.000 dolara, a upravo u tom trenutku mnogi su odlučili da količinu koju posjeduju prodaju ili je potroše plaćajući ovom digitalnom valutom (i pokajali se zbog toga).

HODL naspram drugih strategija

HODL-ovanje se razlikuje od aktivnijih strategija, poput kupovine po niskoj cijeni i prodaje po visokoj, jer dok trgovci pokušavaju da tempiraju tržište radi brze zarade, HODL-eri ostaju dosljedni svojoj odluci da se ne oslobađaju svoje imovine ni u najnoepovoljnijim trenucima. HODL-eri ne pokušavaju da predvide kretanje cijena – jednostavno čuvaju svoja sredstva, svjesni toga da će strpljenje na kraju donijeti rezultat.

Naravno, HODL-ovanje ima i svoje nedostatke. Za razliku od trgovaca koji mogu da povećaju svoj kapital kroz stratešku kupovinu i prodaju, HODL-eri zavise od vremena provedenog u čekanju na dugoročne rezultate. Pored toga, masovno HODL-ovanje može usporiti cirkulaciju kriptovaluta na tržištu, smanjujući ukupnu ekonomsku aktivnost – drugim riječima, kada bismo svi bili HODL-eri odnos ponude i tražnje bi bio veoma destimulišući i to bi oborilo cijenu.

Na sreću, trgovaca ima mnogo – dovoljno da tržište stalno bude aktivno i dinamično, no za one koji nemaju vremena, vještine ili sklonost ka riziku koji nosi trgovanje, HODL-ovanje ostaje jednostavan, ali veoma efikasan pristup.

Filozofija HODL-ovanja

HODL-ovanje je više od investicione strategije – to je način razmišljanja koji obuhvata otpornost, strpljenje i vjerovanje da su kratkotrajno suzdržavanje i nepokolebljivost u odluci da se sredstva sačuvaju vrijedna dugoročnog dobitka. Bilo da cijena bitcoina raste ili pada je, filozofija HODL-ovanja ostaje ista – ostanimo dosljedni, vjerujmo procesu i gledajmo u budućnost.

Jedan od ključnih razloga zašto većini ljudi ovakav pristup dugo nije bio razumljiv je zbog toga što su čitav sistem novca prihvatili u uvjerenju da on vremenom devalvira. Vjerovatno ste makar jednom razmatrali ponudu oročene štednje i procijenili da vam količina novca koju želite da položite neće donijeti onaj prinos koji će očuvati njegovu kupovnu moć nakon određenog broja godina, jer je kontinuirano doštampavanje novca podupiralo tu tvrdnju.

Dakle, ne treba da vas zavara sve ono što znate o novcu kao takvom, budući da bitcoin (na kojem je u ovom serijalu poseban fokus, jer mnoge druge kriptovalute ipak češće razočaraju nego što oduševe) nije novac, već samo ima neka svojstva novca. Posmatrajte ga radije kao imovinu – npr. kao nekretninu za koju sigurno želite da prodate onda kada je situacija stabilnija i kada su mnogo veće šanse da pronađete kupca kojem ćete je prodati po višoj cijeni.

U svakom slučaju, ako se u vašem digitalnom novčaniku već nalazi poneki satoshi (stomilioniti djelić bitcoina), kada tržište ponovo uđe u nepovoljnu fazu i zavlada prolazna panika, sjetite se onoga što je napisao GameKyuubi. HODL nije samo izraz – to je način da se prebrode oluje i izazovi koje nestabilno tržište nosi.

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Originalni tekst na linkedin.com

07.12.2016 / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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Kažu da su svi generali pametni posle bitke. Međutim, pošto sam se i pre „bitke“ pokazao kao dobar general (moj intervju u članku objavljenom 2 meseca pre „bitke“), daću sebi za pravo da pokušam da objasnim šta se desilo i zašto se desilo. Koga mrzi da čita članak, evo ukratko o čemu se radilo: Početkom maja sam bio zamoljen da prokomentarišem kako će prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare u julu uticati na cenu bitkoina. Rekao sam tada da mislim da će cena do prepolovljavanja (između tačke „A“ i tačke „B“ na grafikonu) rasti, da će posle prepolovljavanja (od tačke „B“ pa na dalje) kratkoročno cena pasti, pa da će nakon toga dugoročno rasti. Upravo tako nešto se i desilo. Ipak, moram da naglasim da cena bitkoina zavisi od mnogih faktora i zaista je teško izolovati uticaj nekog pojedinačnog faktora na cenu, tako da se svaka ovakva analiza mora uzeti sa dosta rezerve.

Ovog jula desilo se nešto što se dešava jednom u 4 godine... a nisu Olimpijske igre ili 29-ti februar. Nagrada za bitkoin rudare se prepolovila i sada iznosi 12.5 bitkoina po bloku (uz to naravno ide i zbir provizija svih transakcija u bloku, ali taj iznos je i dalje bitno manji od 12.5 btc). Mnogi su mislili da će taj događaj vinuti cenu bitkoina u nebesa, verovatno i zbog toga što je nakon prethodnog prepolovljavanja nagrade krenuo rast koji je za manje od godinu dana rezultirao u povećanju cene od preko 10.000%. Ipak, prepolovljanje nagrade nije, barem kratkoročno, donelo očekivani skok cene. Objašnjenje za to se može tražiti u Hipotezi Efikasnog Tržišta.

Hipoteza Efikasnog Tržišta (HET), u svom jačem obliku, tvrdi da se sve javno dostupne informacije o nečemu (u ovom slučaju – o bitkoinu) već ogledaju u ceni tog nečega. Zbog toga, analizom tih javno dostupnih informacija nije moguće „pobediti“ tržište. Možemo diskutovati o tome koliko je tržište bitkoina efikasno i u kojoj meri je ova hipoteza na njega primenjiva, kao i tome koliko je i sama HET valjana, ali meni je početkom maja baš ta hipoteza pomogla da predvidim kretanje cene pre i posle prepolovljavanja.

Da bi cena nečega rasla, mora da postoji povećan broj onih koji to žele da kupe u odnosu na broj onih koji to žele da prodaju. Hajde da na trenutak zamislimo da se prepolovljavanje nagrade dogodilo potpuno neočekivano, to jest da niko nije znao da će se dogoditi. Špekulanti bi brzo shvatili da će se zbog smanjenog tempa generisanja novih bitkoina verovatno poremetiti odnos ponude i potražnje (u korist potražnje) i krenuli bi da kupuju nadajući se da će kasnije prodati po većoj ceni. Nesumljivo, to bi dovelo do rasta cene bitkoina, verovatno naglog.

Međutim, pošto se za prepolovljavanje unapred znalo da će se dogoditi i kada će se dogoditi, po HET ta, javno dostupna, informacija se već reflektovala na cenu pre prepolovljavanja. Prostim jezikom rečeno, pošto su ljudi očekivali rast cene posle prepolovljavanja, oni su mesecima unapred kupovali bitkoine, nadajući se da će da profitiraju posle rasta. Sva ta silna kupovina pred prepolovljavanje je povećela potražnju pa samim tim i cenu bitkoina. Ali, baš zato što su svi pokupovali bitkoine pred prepolovljavanje, kad se prepolovljavanje dogodilo – više nije imao ko da kupuje. A cena ne može da raste dalje ako nema dovoljno potražnje da tu cenu gura na gore. Baš zbog te smanjene potražnje, cena bitkoina je mesecima posle prepolovljavanja stagnirala, čak je imala i jedan ozbiljan pad, zbog BitFinex-a.

Dugoročno, naravno da je logično da prepolovljavanje nagrade ipak donese rast cene. Najpre, tempo generisanja novih bitkoina se smanjuje, a ako potražnja nastavi da raste sličnom brzinom kao i ranije, cena mora da raste. Takođe, prepolovljavanje nagrade je prepolovilo profit rudarima, koji će sada želeti da prodaju bitkoine po višoj ceni da bi zadržali sličan nivo prihoda kao ranije. Videćemo da li je jesenji rast cene upravo početak tog dugoročnog trenda rasta koji sam u članku prognozirao ili samo privremena stvar. Ipak, tu je još dosta drugih faktora, pre svih pitanje kako će bitkoin zajednica odgovoriti na problem skaliranja - što će biti jedna od narednih tema.

Napomena: Ova analiza predstavlja moje lično viđenje situacije. Nisam ekspert za analizu kretanja cene, tako da ovde navedene informacije ne treba uzimati kao relevantne pri eventualnim odlukama o kupovini ili prodaji kriptovaluta.

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

The year had barely begun when we, a group of four from the hostel, decided to explore Moshi's Uhuru Park. Located conveniently in the city center, it was just a short walk away, making it an easy and inviting destination.

A Stroll Through Uhuru Park

We entered through the main gate and began to wander around the park. The first area we encountered was small buildings with stores, restaurants, and a cozy beer garden. After some browsing, we ventured further into the heart of the park and stumbled upon a playground. It was a bit run-down — a place I wouldn’t let my kids play, especially not on the slide — but that didn’t stop us. As adults, we unleashed our inner children, playing on the equipment and snapping countless photos.

In the middle of our playground adventure, we spotted a tree with a ladder and a sign requesting payment to use the playground. Surprisingly, they accepted Mastercard and Visa! Yet, given the state of the equipment, I couldn’t imagine parents willingly paying for such a risky setup.

Unexpected Sights and Big Discoveries

As we moved on, the park began to reveal its quirky charm. We admired creatively maintained corners and came across a unique “Christmas tree”. Unlike traditional evergreens, this local tree earned its festive name because it only blooms during the holiday season. Nearby, we marveled at massive termite hills — some taller than me — that left me feeling small. While I was curious, I didn’t dig around to confirm if any termites were home.

A Smoothie Haven: The Wishing Tree

We eventually reached a cluster of houses within the park. One spot stood out to me — The Wishing Tree. I’d discovered it one evening during a failed attempt to attend a BBQ festival when the police turned me away. The Wishing Tree seemed like an oasis, but it was closed at night, so I promised myself I’d return.

That day, I kept my promise. The Wishing Tree lived up to its name, offering a serene, green space with soft music perfect for meditation. The smoothies were freshly made, organic, and worth the wait. With my first sip, I was blown away — absolutely delicious, even if a bit pricey. We lingered there, savoring every moment and every drop.

Chipsiei and Colonial Echoes

After leaving the oasis, we wandered back to the beer garden. One of my companions, a man from Switzerland, ordered Chipsiei. It’s a local dish of fries and eggs, with “Ei” (the German word for egg) being a linguistic remnant of Tanzania’s time as German East Africa. Traces of this colonial past still linger in buildings, language, and even some food traditions.

I opted for a beer with lemon, similar to a Radler, while others chose soda or beer. After finishing our drinks, we continued our walk, eventually passing the bus station. Here, the Swiss traveler bought a ticket for his next destination, though not without encountering the infamous “mzungu price” — a common overcharge for foreigners. Despite having the correct price from the internet, he couldn’t negotiate it down.

A Market Adventure

Back at the hostel, I decided to visit the market, and the Swiss man joined me. I needed bananas, while he sought natural baobab fruit. Unlike the colored and sugary versions sold on the street, market baobab is organic and white. It was the perfect place to find fresh, unaltered produce.

Wrapping Up the Day

After the market, we returned to the hostel to relax at the bar, reflecting on our day. While writing this, I realized I captured so many interesting photos. I’ll share a few here and save the rest for my upcoming online gallery — stay tuned for updates!

Moving On

Tomorrow, I’ll check out and continue my journey through Africa. After nearly two months in Moshi, my foot has healed, and it’s time to move forward. Along the way, I’ll need to replace my GoPro battery (the old one blew up) and get a power bank after my Google Pixel met its end with a faulty one. I also need to pick up a hat to protect myself from the increasingly harsh sun and maybe a sheet to use as a multi sheet (Towel, Beach Towel and other things).

The road ahead promises new adventures, stories, and photos. Stay tuned to follow my travels as I explore more of this beautiful continent!

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na ecd.rs

29.04.2020. / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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U poslednjih par meseci smo naučili da mnoge stvari koje deluju sigurno i nepromenljivo zapravo ne moraju da budu takve. Ove godine nećemo gledati tenis na Vimbldonu, a olimpijske igre su odložene za sledeću godinu. Ipak, i u ovim ludim vremenima postoje stvari za koje možemo biti sigurni da će se dogoditi tačno kada su bile i planirane. Jedna od njih je prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare bitkoina, poznatije kao „bitcoin halving“ u ovom slučaju u doba korone.

Za one kojima je ova tematika nova, samo par rečenica o halving-u. „Rudari“ su ljudi koji svoj hardver koriste za održavanje bitkoin mreže. Za svaki novi blok transakcija koji se doda u blokčejn, neko od rudara dobije 12.5 BTC, a to se deševa otprilike na svakih 10 minuta. Nakon prepolovljavanja nagrade, rudari će dobijati 6.25 BTC po bloku.

„Bitcoin halving“ je planiran za 11.05., možda bude dan-dva pre ili kasnije, ali neće odstupiti više od toga. To je inače nešto što je predviđeno da se dešava na svake 4 godine, ali se zbog skoro neprekidnog rasta procesorske snage rudara do sada dešavalo u intervalima koji su nešto kraći od 4 godine (prethodno prepolovljavanje nagrade se desilo u julu 2016.).

Pre 4 godine sam pisao na ovu temu kada sam od strane Cointelegraph-a bio zamoljen da prognoziram uticaj halvinga na cenu. Par meseci kasnije sam napisao i članak u kojem sam objasnio kako sam uspeo da pogodim kretanje cene.

Da nema korone, moja prognoza se u principu ne bi razlikovala od prognoze koju sam dao pre 4 godine. Sa koronom, pokazalo se da je teško bilo šta prognozirati. Često sam govorio da bi bitkoin eksplodirao (u pozitivnom smislu) da je postojao 2008. godine tokom ekonomske krize. I dalje to mislim. Međutim, kriza sa kojom se sad suočavamo nije ista kao ona od pre 12 godina. Tada smo imali krah finansijskog sistema koji je ozbiljno uzdrmao čak i najveće svetske banke, samim tim i poverenje u bankarski sistem. Alternativa u vidu kriptovaluta bi u tim okolnostima mnogima bila vrlo zanimljiva. Ipak, sada nemamo krizu finansijskog sistema, barem ne još uvek. Iako mnogi prognoziraju da nas čeka kriza koja će biti ozbiljnija od one iz 2008. godine, mislim da malo ko razmišlja o dugoročnim posledicama u ovom trenutku i o tome koje investicije će dugoročno biti najisplativije.

Dugoročno planiranje je u ovim okolnostima luksuz koji retko ko može sebi da priušti. U situciji kad su ljudi zabrinuti za svoj život i život svojih bližnjih, kad su ostali bez posla ili se plaše da mogu ostati (ili se plaše da li će im biznis preživeti, ako su vlasnici biznisa), verovatno da retko ko razmišlja o tome da li je pametnije investirati u zlato ili digitalno zlato (kako mnogi nazivaju bitkoin) i šta će za 5 ili 10 godina doneti veći profit.

Zbog činjenice da je ceo svet zaokupljen virusom, mislim da će prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare proći relativno neopaženo, pogotovo u mejnstrim medijima. Od početka krize, cena kriptovaluta se kretala slično kao i indeksi na svetskim berzama, što je čudno, barem gledajući istoriju… mada, u svojoj relativno kratkoj istoriji bitkoin se još nije susreo sa koronom, niti bilo čime sličnim. Kratkoročno, mislim da će na cenu bitkoina mnogo više uticati talasi osećaja panike i optimizma koji će se na globalnom nivou smenjivati kao posledica daljih dešavanja vezano za koronu, nego prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare ili bilo šta drugo što se dešava unutar same kripto industrije. Zbog toga, ne bih se usudio da dam bilo kakvu procenu kad je u pitanju kratkoročno kretanje cene bitkoina.

Dugoročno gledano, ja sam već oko 8 godina optimista (uz par kratkotrajnih kriza) kad je bitkoin u pitanju i to korona neće promeniti. Kao što sve pandemije prolaze, proći će i korona, pa će svet morati da se suoči sa dugoročnim posledicama svojih kratkoročnih odluka koje su donete i koje će biti donete tokom narednih meseci. Ovde ni na koji način ne želim da te odluke dovodim u pitanje, jer u ovakvim situacijama ne postoje dobra rešenja, samo manje ili više loša. I samo vreme može da pokaže koja su bila kakva. Ipak, koliko god neke odluke bile opravdane ili iznuđene, one će imati posledice.

Ekonomija je stala i mnoge države su već najavile ozbiljno doštampavanje novca kako bi ponovo pokrenule privredu. Imajući u vidu da su i pre tog doštampavanja, države mahom bile ozbiljno zadužene, postavlja se pitanje koliko dodatnog zaduživanja može da se podnese. Ovo će biti ozbiljan izazov čak i za najjače svetske ekomije, a posebno za one slabije. Iznenadilo bi me da ova kriza ne prouzrokuje ozbiljne nivoe inflacije i devalvacije valuta, pa čak i potpuni bankrot u nekim od zemalja u razvoju. Nikako ne isključujem mogućnost da se tako nešto desi i u nekoj od razvijenih zemalja. Valuta koja se ne može nekontrolisano doštampavati i time obezvređivati može biti vrlo simpatična alternativa u tim okolnostima.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Časopis studenata Ekonomskog fakulteta - "Monopolist", oktobar 2013. / Autor: Nikola Nikitović

Da li ćemo, uz pomoć interneta, uspeti da zaobiđemo banke u procesu novčanih transakcija i tako učinimo sebe bogatijim?

Slobodno tržište tera svakog učesnika da popravi performanse svog proizvoda ili usluge, smanji troškove, eliminiše nepotrebne aktivnosti i sve to u cilju profi ta. Zato ne čudi što zbog pojave savremenih tehnologija mnoga zanimanja nestaju. Tako danas skoro da više i nemamo daktilografe, limare, časovničare i slično. Međutim, delatnost koja je izložena konkurenciji, ali vekovima opstaje i tradicionalno pravi velike profi te je bankarstvo. Iste godine kad je svet zahvatila svetska ekonomska kriza, te čuvene 2008, osoba ili grupa ljudi pod pseudonimom „Satoši Nakamoto” izbacuje „bitkoin protokol”. Idejni tvorac bitkoina izabrao je da ostane anoniman, što je otvorilo prostor za istražitelje koji su pokušali da otkriju identitet Satoši Nakamota. Izneti su i dokazi koji povezuju troje ljudi sa identitetom Nakamota, ali ništa više od onoga što obični demanti ne mogu osporiti.

ŠTA JE, U STVARI, „BITKOIN”?

Jedna od ideja tvoraca bitkoina je da se dizajnira nova ekonomija u kojoj digitalni domen ima primarnu ulogu. Bitkoin je prva decentralizovana digitalna valuta. Za razliku od evra, dolara, dinara ili bilo koje druge valute, bitkoinom ne upravlja nijedna institucija - ni centralna banka, ni vlada, niti bilo ko drugi. To su digitalni novčići koji se mogu slati putem interneta. Šaljemo ih neposredno, dakle, bez učešća banaka, što znači da su troškovi slanja, ako ne nulti, onda svakako manji nego do sada. Geografski faktori ne predstavljaju ograničenje, pa, na kojoj god lokaciji da se nalazimo, moći ćemo da primamo ili šaljemo ovaj digitalni novac. Takođe, jedna od važnih osobina bitkoina je ta da nam račun ni u jednom trenutku ne može biti zamrznut.

Urednik „Bitkoin magazina” kaže da je bitkoin upravo ono što bi novac trebalo da bude. Ove transakcije ne liče na klasične novčane transakcije. Kako njima ne upravlja centralna banka, infl acija nije moguća, što u slučaju Srbije, zemlje s tradicionalno visokom infl acijom i drugom najvećom hiperinfl acijom, dosta znači. Bitkoini se generišu u procesu zvanom „mining”. Kompjuter nam zadaje kompleksan matematički problem, a cilj je šezdesetčetvorocifreni broj. Ukoliko kompjuter uspešno reši ovaj algoritam, postajemo vlasnici pedeset bitkoina. Mreža je programirana tako da povećava ponudu novca prema predodređenom rasporedu sve dok ukupan broj bitkoina ne dostigne 21 milion. Trenutno se u proseku izbacuje oko dvadeset pet novčića na svakih deset minuta. Ovaj broj biće prepolovljen do 2017, i tako svake četiri godine dok ne dostigne limit. Novembra 2012. kreirana je polovina ukupne ponude bitkoina od 21 milion, a oko 2140. bi trebalo i cela ponuda.

Vrednost bitkoina u odnosu na dolar rapidno se uvećava - od svega trideset centi januara 2011. do 125 dolara marta 2013. Iz tog razloga ljudi koriste bitkoin radije kao investiciju, nego kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Mt.Gox je najveća svetska bitkoin berza (eng. exchange) gde ljudi mogu da trguju bitkoinima bilo s kim u svetu, mogu da ih kupuju lokalnom valutom, a mogu čak i da ih skladište. Ipak, ni ovo nije bez rizika: hakeri mogu da upadnu u sistem i da ga ozbiljno ugroze. Bitkoin je, takođe, poznat po tome što je moguće, uz određeni softver, kupovati nelegalne proizvode poput droge, što skeptici vide kao negativnu stranu ove valute. Ali, ako znamo da nož može da ubije čoveka, ali i da iseče hleb, da li to onda znači da treba da zabranimo proizvodnju noževa?

Najveći interes za novu digitalnu valutu pokazuju zemlje koje nemaju tako jak bankarski sektor kao Kina, Rusija, zemlje Latinske Amerike i Afrika. Postoje dva aspekta bitkoina koja izazivaju sumnju u naše razumevanje novca: on je istovremeno i valuta i način plaćanja (nešto kao „pejpal” sa svojom valutom). Svakako da se vladama i ostalim regulatornim telima ovaj koncept ne sviđa. Oni vole kad akademci razmišljaju o monetarnoj politici, pišu radove i predaju svoje ideje nadležnima, koji ih prihvate ili odbace. Satoši Nakamoto, tvorac bitkoina, nije tako razmišljao: on je napravio valutu i pustio je u upotrebu, pa ko hoće, može da je koristi. Ovo je prvi put u istoriji da jedan čovek može da šalje i prima novac bez učešća ijedne druge osobe, bilo gde na planeti. Nije bitno da li ima bankovni račun, nije bitno da li ima kreditne kartice, ako ima kompjuter i pristup internetu, može da šalje novac odakle god želi i niko ga ne može sprečiti u tome. Neki idu i toliko daleko da kažu da je ovo i najveći izum posle interneta. Ako je tako, to znači da će tražnja rasti, a kako je ponuda predvidiva i ograničena, znači da će i cena da raste. Ako je zaista tako, hajdemo onda svi po bitkoine.

@ 6bae33c8:607272e8

It was a so-so year for me. I won one Beat Chris Liss league, didn’t cash in the other two or the Primetime. I got bounced in the first round of the Steak League playoffs and finished as a self buyer. I didn’t make the Dynasty League playoffs (even though I had the fourth most points and would have won the league based on my scores in the playoffs), and I didn’t do anything in Survivor or Circa Millions. It certainly could have been better.

Had I known in August what I know now, here’s what I would have done:

1.12 Saquon Barkley — This is chalk here, but I love older running backs this year, and Saquon should go off on the Eagles. No, I’m not worried that Jalen Hurts might score 14 rushing TDs in 15 games.

2.1 Jahmyr Gibbs — Also chalk, but I want to build a RB-heavy foundation with all these zero-RB midwits. You love your Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle build? Sidebet?

3.1 Derrick Henry — Whew, glad he fell to me. I love starting out with three straight RBs, so nutless monkeys can criticize my poor draft structure!

4.12 Josh Allen — I like to get a stud QB early, you guys can wait on Kirk Cousins and Caleb Williams if you want.

5.1 Lamar Jackson — I know it’s early to double up, but I don’t want anyone snagging this value from me. Always punish the room even if it costs you! Sidebets anyone?

6.12 Brian Thomas — Receiver is definitely a position you can piece together if you know what you’re doing, and with Thomas I have an every week starter no matter how bad the quarterback play in Jacksonville.

7.1 Courtland Sutton — I want to buy into the Sean Payton Denver passing game. Russell Wilson, not Payton, was the problem, and Bo Nix is a stud.

8.12 Jordan Addison — I expect Sam Darnold to unlock Addison this year.

9.1 Brock Bowers — He’s no Kyle Pitts (who you took in Round 6), that’s for sure.

10.12 Rashid Shaheed — He’s liable to get hurt, but I need some early-season WR production from someone, and he’s better than Chris Olave.

11.1 Bucky Irving — I’m too thin at RB, needed some depth.

12.12 Jalen McMillan — In case I need some WR depth for the stretch run.

13.1 Adam Thielen — If a white receiver is still in the league at 34, he must be doing something right!

14.12 Cowboys Kicker — Always be the first to take the obvious stud kicker.

15.1 Broncos Defense — beasts.

16.12 Vikings Defense — beasts.

17.1 Steelers Kicker — Always draft a second stud kicker to back up your first one.

18.12 Zach Ertz — Need some TE depth, and Ertz could be useful in my Week 17 title game.

19.1 Jonnu Smith — You can never have too much TE depth. Controversial take: Smith will outproduce Waddle and Hill this year.

20.12 Sam Darnold — Who knows? He could be useful in the playoffs.

This obviously isn’t the ideal team, but it would win every league and generate plenty of action in side bets too.

And here’s some September 3-5 ADP to show this build was possible:

@ d830ee7b:4e61cd62

จุดเริ่มต้นของสงครามบล็อกไซส์

ลองนึกภาพร้านอาหารเล็ก ๆ ที่มีแค่สิบโต๊ะ แต่ลูกค้ากลับล้นหลามจนพนักงานวิ่งวุ่นตลอดวัน เราอาจเห็นภาพชัดว่าปัญหาต้องตามมาแน่ ๆ ถ้าจำนวนโต๊ะไม่พอกับลูกค้าที่ต่อแถวกันยาวเหยียด

บางคนหัวเสียจนยอมจ่ายเงินเพิ่มเพื่อรีบได้โต๊ะนั่ง ในขณะที่อีกหลายคนก็ยืนรอจนหมดอารมณ์กิน สุดท้ายก็ต้องถามกันว่า

“จะทำยังไงดี ถึงจะไม่เสียเอกลักษณ์ร้าน และไม่ปล่อยให้ลูกค้าต้องหงุดหงิดมากมายขนาดนี้?”

บรรยากาศตรงนี้เปรียบได้กับสภาพของบิตคอยน์ช่วงราวปี 2015 ซึ่งเดิมทีเคยรองรับธุรกรรมได้สบาย ๆ แต่จู่ ๆ ก็ต้องแบกรับภาระธุรกรรมมหาศาลจน “คิวยาวเป็นหางว่าว”

ทั้งหมดนี้มาจากข้อกำหนดตั้งต้นว่า แต่ละบล็อกมีขนาดเพียง 1 เมกะไบต์ และบล็อกจะถูกสร้างทุก ๆ ประมาณ 10 นาที ทีนี้พอผู้ใช้หลั่งไหลเข้ามาไม่หยุด พื้นที่เล็ก ๆ ที่ว่าเลยเอาไม่อยู่ ใครอยากให้ธุรกรรมติดบล็อกก่อนก็ควักกระเป๋าจ่ายค่าธรรมเนียมเพิ่ม ถ้าไม่จ่าย ธุรกรรมอาจรอข้ามวันข้ามคืน แถมยังเสี่ยงค้างเติ่งไปเลย

ความไม่พอใจจึงปะทุขึ้นเป็นเสียงดังลั่นว่า

“แก้ปัญหานี้ยังไงดี จะขยายบล็อกกันเลยไหม หรือปรับซอฟต์แวร์ให้ฉลาดขึ้นโดยไม่เพิ่มขนาดจริง ๆ?”

เมื่อสองแนวคิดนี้ตั้งฉากกัน คนในแวดวงบิตคอยน์จึงแตกเป็นสองฝั่งหลัก ๆ

ฝั่งแรกเสนอ “เพิ่ม Blocksize” โดยบอกว่าต้องแก้ให้จบตรงจุด เหมือนเพิ่มโต๊ะเข้าไปในร้าน จะได้รองรับลูกค้าได้มากขึ้น เพราะเชื่อว่า Bitcoin ต้องพร้อมสำหรับการใช้งานทั่วโลก การขยายจาก 1 MB เป็น 2 MB หรือ 4 MB หรือมากกว่านั้น จึงตอบโจทย์ผู้ใช้หลากหลายตั้งแต่รายเล็กไปจนถึงธุรกิจใหญ่

แกนนำฝ่ายนี้คือ Roger Ver หรือ “Bitcoin Jesus” ที่ผลักดันแนวคิดนี้สุดตัวร่วมกับทีมขุดอย่าง Bitmain ซึ่งไม่อยากเห็นใครต้องยืนรอนานหรือจ่ายแพงเวอร์

อีกฝ่ายคือทีมพัฒนา “Bitcoin Core” ที่มี Greg Maxwell และ Peter Wuille เป็นหัวขบวน พวกเขายืนยันว่าถ้ายิ่งเพิ่มขนาดบล็อกให้ใหญ่โต ก็จะยิ่งเก็บข้อมูลมากจนโหนดรายเล็ก ๆ ต้องใช้ทรัพยากรสูงขึ้น สุดท้ายอาจเหลือแค่รายใหญ่ที่รันโหนดไหว แล้ว Decentralization ก็จะถูกบั่นทอน

ฝ่ายบิตคอยน์คอร์จึงเสนอทางแก้แบบ Segregated Witness (SegWit) ซึ่งเปรียบได้กับการจัดโต๊ะใหม่ให้แยบยล—ย้ายข้อมูลลายเซ็นธุรกรรมไปไว้นอกบล็อกหลัก ทำให้ในบล็อกมีพื้นที่ใส่ธุรกรรมได้อีกเยอะขึ้นโดยไม่ต้องทุบผนังขยายร้าน

ความขัดแย้งไม่ได้จำกัดอยู่ในเว็บบอร์ดหรือฟอรัม แต่ลุกลามไปจนถึงเวทีระดับโลกอย่าง Consensus Conference ปี 2016 และ 2017 ฝ่ายหนุนเพิ่มขนาดบล็อกก็โหวกเหวกว่า “นี่แหละถูกจุดที่สุด”

ส่วนทีมบิตคอยน์คอร์ก็โต้กลับว่า “ขืนบล็อกใหญ่ไป ระบบก็เสี่ยงรวมศูนย์ เพราะใครจะมีทุนซื้ออุปกรณ์แพง ๆ และเน็ตแรง ๆ ตลอด” จึงไม่ใช่แค่ถกเถียงทางเทคนิค แต่สะท้อนมุมมองปรัชญาด้วยว่าบิตคอยน์ควรเป็นระบบ “กระจาย” หรือ “รวมศูนย์” กันแน่

ยิ่งถกก็ยิ่งมองไม่เห็นทางออก.. บ้างก็เสนอให้ Fork แยกเครือข่ายไปเลย เหมือนเปิดสาขาร้านใหม่ ใครไม่โอเคแนวไหนก็ไปอีกสาขาหนึ่ง

Roger Ver กับสายขุดยักษ์ใหญ่ก็บอกว่าถ้าไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize ต่อไปค่าธรรมเนียมสูง และคนจะเข้าถึงยากขึ้น เหมือนร้านที่โต๊ะแน่นจนคนล้น

ฝั่งบิตคอยน์คอร์ย้ำว่าจะพัฒนา SegWit กับ Lightning Network เพื่อขนธุรกรรมส่วนใหญ่ไปทำงานนอกบล็อกหลัก แม้อาจต้องรอให้เทคโนโลยีสุกงอม แต่คงไม่กระทบโหนดรายเล็กมากนัก

ในโลกออนไลน์ สงครามโซเชียลก็เริ่มเดือด ตั้งกระทู้กันทุกวัน บางคนต่อว่านักขุดว่าเอากำไรเป็นหลัก บ้างบอกทีมบิตคอยน์คอร์ไม่เข้าใจปัญหาฝั่งธุรกิจจนชาวเน็ตแบ่งเป็นหลายค่าย คำถามใหญ่จึงดังขึ้น

“ตกลงบิตคอยน์จะเป็น ‘อาวุธทางการเงิน’ ของคนหมู่มากได้จริงเหรอ ถ้าไม่มีพื้นที่ในบล็อกมากพอ?”

หรือ..

“ถ้าผลุนผลันขยายบล็อกไปเรื่อย ๆ จนเหลือแต่รายใหญ่ที่รันโหนดได้ แบบนั้นยังถือว่าเป็น บิตคอยน์ในอุดมการณ์ของ Satoshi Nakamoto ไหม?”

พอหลายฝ่ายพยายามประนีประนอมกันหลายเวที สุดท้ายก็ไม่ประสบผล Roger Ver มั่นใจว่าต้องเพิ่ม Blocksize เท่านั้นจึงพาบิตคอยน์รอด

ส่วนทีม Core ไม่ยอมเปิดทางง่าย ๆ เพราะกลัวระบบเสียหลักการกระจายอำนาจไป

ด้วยเหตุผลทั้งคู่จึงทำให้สงครามนี้ยืดเยื้อ กลุ่มขุดและพัฒนาในแวดวงเริ่มจับตากันเครียด บ้างเสนอทางผสม เช่น เพิ่ม Blocksize นิดหน่อย แล้วเปิด SegWit ควบคู่ บ้างเสนอว่าให้เลื่อนตัดสินใจออกไปก่อนก็ยังดี

ไม่มีใครรู้ว่าจะลงเอยอย่างไร.. และหากเรื่องนี้พลั้งพลาดบิตคอยน์อาจแตกเป็นสองสายจนผู้ใช้หรือนักลงทุนสับสน

สถานการณ์ช่วงแรกเหมือน “ไฟที่กำลังคุ” เพราะยังไม่ปะทุเต็มที่แต่ก็แรงพอจะยกครัวไปตลอดทั้งวงการ คนพัฒนาก็ทำ SegWit และ Lightning Network ไป ฝ่ายหนุน Blocksize ก็เดินสายผลักดันให้เต็มที่ ถึงขั้นยอมเสี่ยง Fork ถ้าจำเป็นจริง ๆ

นี่แหละคือจุดเริ่มต้นของความตึงเครียดที่ไม่ใช่แค่ “ขนาดบล็อก” แต่หมายถึงอนาคตของบิตคอยน์ที่อาจพลิกโฉมไปตลอดกาล..

คิดง่าย ๆ ก็เหมือนร้านอาหารเล็ก ๆ ที่กำลังจะก้าวสู่ภัตตาคารใหญ่ระดับท็อป เมื่อแขกเหรื่อมาไม่หยุดหย่อน แน่นอนว่าเสียงเรียกร้องให้ทุบกำแพงขยายร้านย่อมมีบ้าง แต่บางคนอาจบอก “เปลี่ยนวิธีจัดโต๊ะแทนได้ไหม?” ทุกแนวทางต่างมีทั้งโอกาสและความเสี่ยง

ที่สำคัญคือ บิตคอยน์เป็นสินทรัพย์อันดับหนึ่งของโลกคริปโตฯ หากก้าวพลาดเพียงเล็กน้อย อาจสะเทือนไปทั่วโลกด้วย

เนื้อหาถัดไปผมจะชวนมาดูว่า ใครกันแน่ที่อยู่เบื้องหลังการขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize ครั้งนี้?

พวกเขามีแรงจูงใจอะไรกันบ้าง? และจะนำพาบิตคอยน์ไปในทิศทางใด?

ขอทิ้งท้ายส่วนนี้ให้คิดเล่น ๆ

“ถ้าเพิ่ม Blocksize สุด ๆ แต่โหนดรายเล็กหายหมด สุดท้ายยังเรียกว่ากระจายอำนาจอยู่ไหม?”

“หรือจะรักษาบล็อกขนาดเล็กไว้อย่างเดิม แล้วปรับเทคโนโลยีเสริมให้ฉลาดขึ้นดีกว่า?”

ทั้งหมดที่เล่ามายังเป็นแค่บทโหมโรงนะครับ สงครามนี้เพิ่งปะทุเท่านั้น ยังมีอะไรเข้มข้นอีกมาก ติดตามต่อว่าฝั่งไหนจะงัดไม้เด็ดอะไรออกมาเพื่อรักษา “ร้านอาหาร” แห่งนี้ให้เดินหน้าต่อไปได้โดยไม่เสียตัวตน..

ใครคือผู้ขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize?

พาร์ทที่แล้ว เราได้เห็นภาพรวมของปัญหาที่ดูเหมือนจะเล็กนิดเดียวอย่าง “บล็อกใหญ่หรือเล็ก?” แต่กลับแผ่ขยายจนกลายเป็นมหากาพย์ความขัดแย้งในชุมชนบิตคอยน์ เสมือนเดิมพันอนาคตของสกุลเงินดิจิทัลอันดับหนึ่งบนโลกใบนี้

พอตอนนี้ถึงเวลาแล้วที่เราจะก้าวลึกลงไปในเบื้องหลังของสงครามอันร้อนแรงนี้ ใครอยู่ในเงามืด? ใครลากสายอยู่หลังเวที? และใครโดดขึ้นมาเดินลุยบนสนามเปิดเพื่อต่อสู้แย่งชิงฉันทามติของเครือข่าย?

มีคนชอบเปรียบเทียบว่าศึก Blocksize ครั้งนี้คือ “สนามรบดิจิทัล” ซึ่งไม่ได้ยิงกระสุนห้ำหั่นแต่ใช้โค้ดแทน ขับเคลื่อนด้วย “Hashrate” ที่เปรียบเสมือนอาวุธหนัก ฝ่ายไหนถือกำลังขุดสูงกว่าก็เหมือนมีกองทัพเบิ้ม ๆ อยู่ในมือ

ด้านนักพัฒนาและผู้ใช้ทั่วไปก็คล้ายประชากรพลเรือนที่บางทีก็ต้องยอมรับชะตา แต่บางทีก็รวมตัวประท้วงสร้างพลังของตัวเองให้โลกได้เห็น ทุกฝีก้าวมีคนจ้องดูว่าจะเกิด “Hard Fork” หรือ “Soft Fork” เมื่อไหร่ และกฎใดจะถูกประกาศเป็น “กฎใหม่” ให้ทุกคนต้องปฏิบัติตาม

ในมุมของคนอยาก “เพิ่ม Blocksize” เห็นชื่อของ Roger Ver โผล่โดดเด่นสุด ๆ เขาคือ “Bitcoin Jesus” แห่งยุคบุกเบิก ที่ครั้งหนึ่งทุ่มทุนโปรโมตบิตคอยน์แบบไม่กลัวเจ๊ง ด้วยความเชื่อว่าบิตคอยน์ควรเป็น “เงินสดดิจิทัล” ลื่นไหลจ่ายคล่อง สลัดค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ๆ ทิ้งไปให้หมด

ในสายตาเขา การคงบล็อกเล็กแค่ 1 MB ยิ่งทำให้คนใช้แล้วปวดหัว ค่าธรรมเนียมสูงปรี๊ด ธุรกรรมอืดอาดเกินจะทน เลยต้องขยายขนาดบล็อกแบบจัดเต็ม เหมือนขยายถนนให้รถวิ่งง่าย ไม่งั้นก็ต้องมุดเข้าอุโมงค์แคบ ๆ จอดติดกันยาว

และ “Bitmain” บริษัทเครื่องขุดเบอร์ใหญ่สุดในโลกก็เข้ามาเสริมพลังแบบเต็มขั้น ขับเคลื่อนโดย Jihan Wu ที่เล็งเห็นว่าพอยิ่งขยายบล็อก ธุรกรรมก็จะยิ่งทะลัก ค่าธรรมเนียมก็จะเพิ่มขึ้น นักขุดจะได้เงินดี สร้างแรงดึงดูดให้คนหันมาหาบิตคอยน์มากขึ้นไปอีก

Bitmain ถือ Hashrate มหาศาล จึงไม่ต่างจากมีทัพใหญ่พร้อมยกพลบุก เพื่อดันแนวคิด “Fork” ได้ตลอดเวลา ถ้าฝั่งเพิ่ม Blocksize อยากจะเล่นเกมสายไหนก็เดินได้เลย

อีกฟากสนาม คือทีม “Bitcoin Core” ถือเป็นแกนกลางที่คุมซอฟต์แวร์หลัก

นำโดย *Greg Maxwell, Peter Wuille และ Wladimir van der Laan***

พวกเขาห่วงว่าถ้าบล็อกใหญ่ขึ้นมาก คงจะมีแค่นายทุนใหญ่เท่านั้นที่รันโหนดไหว ประชาชนตัวเล็ก ๆ หรือคนไม่มีทรัพยากรเยอะก็ยิ่งถูกกันออกจากเครือข่าย กลายเป็นระบบกึ่งรวมศูนย์ ซึ่งสวนกับหลักการเดิมที่ Satoshi Nakamoto เคยวางไว้

พวกเขาจึงเสนอ Segregated Witness (SegWit) เพื่อตัดข้อมูลลายเซ็น (Witness Data) ทิ้งไปนอกบล็อก ทำให้มีพื้นที่รองรับธุรกรรมได้เยอะขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องขยาย “เลนหลัก” และจะต่อยอดด้วย Lightning Network เพื่อยกธุรกรรมส่วนใหญ่ไปอยู่นอกบล็อกอีกชั้น

ฝั่งนักพัฒนาเหล่านี้ไม่ได้สู้อย่างโดดเดี่ยว แต่มีผู้ใช้รวมพลังกันในนาม UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork) มองว่า

“ใครว่าขุดเยอะแล้วสั่งการได้หมด? ผู้ใช้ทั่ว ๆ ไปก็ออกแบบกติกาได้เหมือนกัน?”

พวกเขาบอกเลยว่า “ถ้าไม่หนุน SegWit พวกฉันไม่เอาด้วยนะ”

การเคลื่อนไหวแบบนี้สร้างแรงกดดันให้นักขุดต้องรีบตามน้ำ ไม่งั้นเสี่ยงโดนผู้ใช้ปฏิเสธบล็อกกันถ้วนหน้า

ปี 2016-2017 กลายเป็นช่วงร้อนระอุสุด ๆ Roger Ver ลุกขึ้นพูดเมื่อไหร่ มักกล่าวหาทีม Core ว่าปิดประตูโอกาสทองของบิตคอยน์

ส่วนทีม Core ก็ตีโต้กลับว่า “ถ้าเพิ่มบล็อกเร็วไป มีแต่จะทำให้บิ๊กทุนไม่กี่เจ้าเข้ามาผูกขาด!”

พอยิ่งเถียงกันในงานใหญ่ เช่น Consensus Conference 2017 ประเด็นก็ยิ่งเดือด บางฝ่ายอยาก “Fork” แตกสายไปเลย บางฝ่ายยังคอยประนีประนอม แต่ก็ไม่มีใครลงรอยกันได้

Roger Ver และ Bitmain เร่งเครื่องดัน Hard Fork

ทีม Core ไม่ยอมถอย ยืนกราน SegWit ก่อน แล้วใช้ Lightning Network ปิดเกม

ผลคือ...

ทุกคนเริ่มกลัวว่า “Bitcoin จะแตกเป็นสองสายจริง ๆ หรือ?”

จะเป็นบล็อกใหญ่ หรือจะอยู่ 1 MB พร้อม SegWit?

กลางปี 2017 สงครามนี้จึงคลอด “Bitcoin Cash” เครือข่ายใหม่ที่กลุ่ม Roger Ver ผลักดัน บอกว่านี่คือ “Bitcoin ตัวจริง” ที่ค่าธรรมเนียมถูกกว่า ธุรกรรมไวกว่า รองรับคนจำนวนมากได้

ในขณะเดียวกัน เครือข่ายหลัก BTC ก็เปิดใช้ SegWit ไป พร้อมมุ่งหน้าเปิดทาง Lightning Network ทำให้ครึ่งหนึ่งของชุมชนยังเชื่อมั่นว่าการรักษาบล็อกเล็ก คือหัวใจสำคัญของกระจายอำนาจ

Blocksize War ครั้งนี้ เกินกว่าจะเรียกว่า “ดีเบตเชิงเทคนิค”

มันคล้ายการปะทะอุดมการณ์ของ “กระจายอำนาจอย่างเคร่งครัด” ปะทะ “ขยายบล็อกให้ใช้งานจริงในชีวิตประจำวัน”

ทั้งสองฝ่ายต่างยิงวาทะกันเดือดในโซเชียลมีเดีย คนฝ่ายหนึ่งบอกอีกฝ่าย “ล้าหลังไม่รู้จักปรับตัว” อีกฝ่ายก็ยันกลับว่า “คิดแค่กำไรระยะสั้น ไม่รักษาอัตลักษณ์บิตคอยน์” บน Reddit, Twitter, ฟอรัมต่าง ๆ เหล่าผู้เคยเป็นเพื่อนร่วมทางต้องแยกค่ายกันเพราะมองต่างว่าควรเพิ่มบล็อกหรือเปล่า

ที่สุดแล้ว...

เมื่อสองอุดมการณ์สวนทางกันระดับราก แทบไม่มีพื้นที่ประนีประนอม บ้างเชื่อว่าถ้าไม่เพิ่มบล็อกบิตคอยน์จะใช้งานลำบากเกิน บ้างยึดมั่นว่าถ้าบล็อกใหญ่มากโหนดเล็ก ๆ ก็จะหายไปหมด ระบบจะตกในมือไม่กี่คน.. ซึ่งขัดเจตนารมณ์ตั้งต้นของ Satoshi แบบสุด ๆ

ผลลัพธ์จึงลงเอยด้วยการเกิด “Bitcoin Cash” (BCH) แยกเครือข่าย และเปิดศึกโฆษณาว่า “ตนต่างหากที่เป็นผู้สืบทอดแนวคิด Satoshi ของจริง”

เมื่อ Bitcoin Cash ถือกำเนิดพร้อมขนาดบล็อกใหญ่ “มหาศึก” ครั้งนี้ก็ไม่ได้จบลง แต่เปลี่ยนหน้าฉากไปสู่การตลาดและความชอบธรรม

ใคร ๆ ก็ตั้งคำถามว่า “Bitcoin Cash ต่างจาก Bitcoin ยังไง?” หรือ “ใครสืบทอดเจตนารมณ์ Satoshi อย่างแท้จริงกันแน่?”

นักพัฒนา ฝั่ง BTC ยังเหนียวแน่นว่ารักษาเครือข่ายให้เบา ๆ แล้วใช้ทริคอย่าง SegWit, Lightning Network เสริม คือทางออกป้องกันการรวมศูนย์

ฝ่าย BCH ก็บอกว่าบล็อกใหญ่เลยดีกว่า ทุกคนจะได้เทรดกันเพลินโดยไม่ต้องแย่งพื้นที่

ในภาพใหญ่.. สงครามครั้งนี้ส่งคลื่นกระเพื่อมไปทั่วโลกคริปโตฯ หลายคนกลัวว่าถ้ายังแยกแตกกันแบบนี้ต่อ ราคาจะผันผวนจนคนขยาด แต่ก็มีอีกฝ่ายที่มองว่า

“ดีสิ มีการแข่งขันแล้วเกิดนวัตกรรมใหม่ ๆ”

เพราะในโลกโอเพนซอร์ส ไม่มีใครหยุดการแยกตัวได้ถ้าคนบางกลุ่มอยากลองแนวทางใหม่

คำถามสำคัญคือ..

“ใครขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize?”

คำตอบก็หนีไม่พ้น Roger Ver, Bitmain และทีม Bitcoin Core รวมถึงกลุ่ม UASF

พวกเขาต่างมีพลังในมิติต่าง ๆ

Roger Ver มีแรงสนับสนุนจากนักขุดสายทุนจัด Bitmain มีกองทัพ Hashrate มหาศาล ทีม Bitcoin Core คุมซอฟต์แวร์ และ UASF ก็มีอำนาจ ‘No Node, No Vote’ ที่ปัดบล็อกไม่พอใจทิ้งได้หมด

นี่ไม่ใช่การรบระหว่าง “อำนาจกับผู้อ่อนแอ” แต่เป็นสมรภูมิที่ทุกขั้วมี “พลัง” อยู่คนละแบบ ทำให้การประนีประนอมเป็นเพียงอุดมคติ

จนที่สุดจึงแตกเป็นสองสาย เหมือนเป็นสปิริตของโอเพนซอร์สที่แค่ Fork ก็พาเดินไปคนละทิศ ใครอยากกดเครื่องขุดก็ขุด ใครอยากตามซอฟต์แวร์ Core ก็จัดไป

นึกภาพอนาคตสิครับ.. ถ้ามีเทคโนโลยีใหม่เข้ามาอีก จะมีสงคราม “Blocksize 2.0” หรือเปล่า? ถ้าเจอเงื่อนไขใหญ่ ๆ ในการเปลี่ยนระบบ ย่อมต้องเข้าสู่วงจรดีเบตเดือดปุดเหมือนเคย

เพราะบิตคอยน์เป็นระบบไร้ผู้นำสูงสุด ทุกฝ่ายจึงมีสิทธิชูมือคัดค้านหรือสนับสนุนอย่างอิสระ

ฉากในเนื้อหาส่วนนี้คือด้านหน้าฉากของสงคราม Blocksize และเหล่าคนขับเคลื่อนที่ทำให้เกิดการแตกแยกครั้งประวัติศาสตร์ในโลกบิตคอยน์ ส่วนต่อไปเราจะได้เห็นเทคนิคล้ำ ๆ และจุดชนวนสุดเฉพาะหน้าที่ทำให้สองฝ่ายยิ่งปะทะกันอีก

แต่ก่อนจะไปรอนั้น..

ขอสรุปให้คิดกันแบบง่าย ๆ ว่า… ในโลกอันไร้ศูนย์กลางที่ต่างคนต่างตะโกนว่า

“ฉันคือเจ้าของบิตคอยน์!”

สุดท้าย “ใครกันแน่เป็นผู้ตัดสินทิศทาง?” หรือแท้จริง “ชัยชนะ–ความพ่ายแพ้” ก็ไม่มีอยู่จริงในสงครามแบบนี้...

เอาจริง ๆ การตัดสินใจของไม่กี่คน หรือการร่วมตัวของยูสเซอร์กระจัดกระจาย ก็ล้วนมีสิทธิเปลี่ยนอนาคตของเงินดิจิทัลได้ทั้งสิ้น จึงเป็นเสน่ห์และความโกลาหลของ “decentralization” ที่น่าหลงใหล

ไม่มีใครสั่งใครได้เต็มร้อย แต่ก็ไม่มีใครจะหยุดคนอื่นได้หมดเช่นกัน

เมื่อมองย้อนกลับไป.. นี่แหละเป็นบทเรียนสำคัญว่าบิตคอยน์ไม่ได้เป็นของใครคนเดียว และถ้าวันหนึ่งไฟสงครามลุกลามขึ้นอีกรอบ เราทุกคนจะรับมือกันยังไง?

ตอนนี้สงครามอาจดูเงียบ ๆ แต่ก็ไม่ได้ปิดฉากสนิท เพราะคลื่นใต้น้ำยังพร้อมระอุขึ้นได้ตลอด

เวลาเท่านั้นที่จะบอกว่า SegWit จะพิสูจน์ตัวเองได้ไหม หรือฝ่าย Hard Fork จะกลับมาโดดเด่นอีกครั้ง

จึงมีแต่คำถามค้างคาว่า.. อีกหน่อยบิตคอยน์จะยังเป็นบิตคอยน์ในแบบที่เรารู้จัก? หรือจะเปลี่ยนโฉมตามรอยแผลที่สงคราม Blocksize ทิ้งไว้?

คอยติดตามกันต่อไปในบทความตอนที่ 2

เพราะนี่อาจเป็นวัฏจักรที่ยังไม่รู้วันสิ้นสุดจริง ๆ ก็ได้ครับ...

@ 9c35fe6b:5977e45b

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@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Der letzte Artikel stand ganz im Zeichen von Mempool, Transaktionsgebühren, Ordinals, BRC-20 Tokens (aka Shitcoins auf Bitcoin) und Mining-Rewards. Der Mempool ist voller als der Hyde-Park in London am einzigen Sommertag mit Sonne im Jahr. Doch weil ich mich in letzter Zeit zu Genüge mit den vorgenannten Themen beschäftigt habe und man zur Zeit an jeder Ecke den Status des Mempools ungefragt eingeflößt bekommt, möchte ich mich diese Woche mit zwei Standpunkten beschäftigen, die entweder gegenläufig oder komplementär zueinander stehen (gibt es wirklich kein Antonym zum Wort komplementär?).

Ausschlaggebend für den Gedankengang, der mich zu dieswöchigem Artikel bewegt hat waren ein Artikel und eine Podcast-Episode, über die ich letzte Woche gestolpert bin. Bei dem Artikel handelt es sich um Jimmy Songs "How Fiat Money Broke the World" aus seiner Fixing the Incentives-Reihe im Bitcoin Magazine und bei der Podcast-Episode wurde ich von den Ausführungen von Peruvian Bull im TFTC Podcast Ausgabe 414: The Dollar Endgame von Marty Bent zum Nachdenken angeregt.

Prinzipiell stellt sich im Großen und Ganzen die Frage, wie eine großflächige Adaption von Bitcoin vonstatten gehen könnte. Hyperbitcoinization oder auch Bitcoin als gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel (wie z.B. in El Salvador, oder bald sogar in Indonesien und Mexiko (!)) sind dabei mögliche Szenarien. Der Nicht-Ghandi-Spruch “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” wird oft genutzt, um die soziologische Entwicklungsstufe, bzw. die öffentliche Wahrnehmung einer Idee, einer Erfindung oder eines Produkts in gewisse Entwicklungsstufen einzuordnen. Genauso wie bei Bitcoin. WIR SIND IN DER "THEN THEY FIGHT YOU" STUFE!!!11! kann man überall auf Bitcoin-Twitter, Nostr oder Reddit lesen.

Doch wer ist "THEY"? Wenn man nur von Nationalstaaten ausgeht und offizielle und inoffizielle (konspirative) multinationale Interessensgruppen außen vor lässt, stellt sich mir die Frage, welches Land / welcher Staat die meisten Gründe (politischer oder wirtschaftlicher Natur) hätte, Bitcoin zu adaptieren, bzw. zu bekämpfen. Natürlich kommen einem dabei als erstes die USA in den Sinn, immerhin das Land mit der höchsten kombinierten Bitcoin-Hashrate, mit den meisten Bitcoin-Infrastruktur-Anbietern, mit den größten Börsen (nach Handelsvolumen) und den meisten Bitcoin-Nutzer//innen in der Bevölkerung.

Doch macht das die USA zum größten potentiellen Gegner oder zum größten potentiellen Befürworter und Begünstigten von Bitcoin?

Jimmy Song "How Fiat Money Broke the World"

Jimmy Song baut seinen Artikel chronologisch auf. Es geht um die Entstehung des Fiat-Geld-Systems nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg und die damit einhergehende Abschaffung des Goldstandards. Mit der Errichtung des Bretton-Woods-Systems wurde eine neue Währungsordnung geschaffen, die den US Dollar als Ankerwährung bestimmte, der wiederum an Goldreserven gekoppelt werden sollte. So sollten flexible Wechselkurse innerhalb der verschiedenen Landeswährungen gewährleistet werden, während gleichzeitig die Sicherheit von Goldreserven existiert. Doch statt Gold für die internationale Handelsabwicklung zu verwenden, wurde nun der Dollar die Abwicklungswährung. Diese Entscheidung verhalf den USA zu einer hegemonialen Wirtschaftsmacht zu werden, denn die Fähigkeit, das Geld zu drucken, mit dem jedes andere Land seinen Handel abwickelte, gab den USA mehr Macht über den Rest der Welt.

Diese Dollar-Hegemonie begünstigte die USA deutlich im internationalen Handel, da sie zur Zentralbank für alle anderen Zentralbanken wurden. Nicht-US-Banken geben sogar Verbindlichkeiten in Dollar, und zwar nicht nur in Europa, sondern in vielen anderen Teilen der Welt. Infolgedessen halten andere Zentralbanken US Dollar als Reserve, die dann auf der Basis von Teilreserven verwendet werden können, um noch mehr Geld in Form von Krediten zu schaffen (das sogenannte Eurodollar-System).

Diese Position der Stärke nutzten die USA weiter aus und erschufen, was heute als das Petrodollar-System bekannt ist. Dank einem Abkommen zwischen Saudi-Arabien und den USA in den 1970ern wird das von allen Mitgliedsstaaten der OPEC geförderte Öl in US Dollar gehandelt, im Gegenzug für militärischen Schutz durch die USA. Das sogenannte Petrodollar-System hat dem US Dollar somit einen enormen Wert und hohe Liquidität verliehen.

Die war auch nötig, denn teure Sozialprogramme wie Medicare und Medicaid als auch das Social Security Programm wurden gestartet. Aber auch sehr teure Stellvertreterkriege, wie z.B. in Korea und Vietnam, wollten finanziert werden. Dies taten die USA, indem sie das Geld hierfür einfach druckten, was wiederum die Zentralbanken der anderen Länder nervös machte und dazu brachte, mit dem Abzug ihrer Goldeinlagen bei der US-Notenbank zu drohen. Der damalige Präsident Tricky Dick (Richard Nixon) reagierte darauf, indem er die Goldbindung des US Dollar zunächst nur temporär für immer aufhob. Damit hatte er den Dollar vom Gold ent- und an das Öl der Saudis (bzw. an den militärisch-industriellen Komplex der USA) gekoppelt.

Die USA haben also das exorbitante Privileg, das Geld drucken zu können, das die Welt für die Abwicklung von Handel verwendet. Dies bedeutet unter anderem, dass die USA ihre gedruckten Dollars exportieren und Waren und Dienstleistungen aus anderen Ländern importieren können. Somit wird das gedruckte Geld im Allgemeinen zuerst in den USA ausgegeben (Cantillon-Effekt in Reinform), was dazu führt, dass Geschäftserfolg in den USA zu einer viel höheren monetären Belohnung führt, als in anderen Ländern. Vereinfacht gesagt: In den USA schwimmt mehr Geld umher und somit wird Erfolg besser belohnt. Folglich wollen mehr Menschen in die USA ziehen, und die USA können auswählen, wer hineinkommt und wer nicht. Gut für die USA - schlecht für die anderen.

Die ehrgeizigsten Menschen aus anderen Ländern immigrieren in die USA und verdienen mehr Geld und leben ein viel besseres Leben als in ihren Heimatländern. Der Braindrain bedeutet, dass andere Länder unterm Strich verlieren. Menschen im Allgemeinen versuchen immer in Länder einzuwandern, die in der Cantillon-Hierarchie höher stehen. Die reichen Länder werden somit reicher an Humankapital, während die armen Länder an Humankapital ärmer werden.

Die USA schaffen es, ihre Stellung als Neuzeit-Kolonialist vor allem mit Hilfe von Sonderorganisationen, internationalen Finanzinstitutionen und anderen Stiftungen wie dem IWF, der BIZ, des WEF oder der Weltbank zu zementieren. Diese supranationalen Banken und Organisationen leihen Entwicklungsländern und "Ländern des globalen Südens" Geld für den (Wieder-) Aufbau und andere Struktur-relevante Tätigkeiten, aber nur unter strengen Auflagen, die noch strenger werden, wenn diese Kredite nicht zurückgezahlt werden können. In diesen Fällen werden diese Länder dann von den Banken "gerettet", unter der Auflage, noch mehr Kontrolle über die eigene Finanzsuveränität abzugeben.

Im Wesentlichen tauschen sie dabei Kredite und längere Laufzeiten gegen organisatorische Kontrolle über den Staatshaushalt. Solche Beschränkungen können Punkte beinhalten, wie z.B. wieviel des nationalen Budgets für Infrastruktur ausgegeben werden kann. Oft müssen diese verschuldeten Regierungen eine eigene unabhängige Zentralbank gründen, die dazu verwendet werden kann, die Notwendigkeit einer staatlichen Genehmigung zu umgehen. So werden Länder dazu gebracht Staats-Ressourcen, wie Schürfrechte oder Ländereien an ausländische Unternehmen zu verkaufen.

Jimmy Song führt seinen Artikel noch etwas fort, doch die mir wichtigsten Punkte habe ich erwähnt. Kurz zusammengefasst: Die USA haben durch die de facto Kontrolle über das Geld eine Sonderposition in der Welt. Nicht nur sitzen sie am Gelddrucker - Geld drucken kann jeder, klappt eben nur unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen (zumindest zeitweise) - sondern haben durch diese Kontrollsituation weitere Vorteile: 1) Das größte Exportgut der USA ist der US Dollar. 2) Die US-Wirtschaft hat einen klaren Vorteil anderen Wirtschaften gegenüber, da das Unternehmertum dort besser belohnt wird. 3) Viele ehrgeizige und talentierte Menschen der ganzen Welt strömen in die USA, um von dieser Belohnung zu profitieren. 4) Die internationalen Buchstabensuppen-Finanzinstitutionen stärken den USA den Rücken.

Die USA haben also ein sehr großes (das gröte) Interesse daran, das globale Finanzmonopol in der aktuellen Form aufrechtzuerhalten.

Peruvian Bull "The Dollar Endgame"

Die Ausgangsthese von Peruvian Bull, einem Autor, der ein gleichnamiges Buch veröffentlicht hat (The Dollar Endgame) ist, dass viele Zeichen darauf hindeuten, dass der US Dollar als Leitwährung der Welt seine letzten Atemzüge macht. Er ist dabei recht pessimistisch und glaubt, dass wir schon in den nächten fünf bis sieben Jahren eine große Veränderung erleben werden.

Allerdings sieht er eine große Chance für die USA, Bitcoin zu nutzen, um diesem Untergang entgegenzuwirken. Viele Länder und Institutionen außerhalb der westlichen Welt sehen den US Dollar kritisch und sind nicht besonders glücklich über die Vormachtstellung, die der Dollar den USA auf dem internationalen Finanzmarkt, dem globalen Handel und der geopolitischen Weltordnung verleiht. Die US-Notenbank wird immer mehr in die Ecke gedrängt und der einzige Ausweg aus der momentanen Schuldenspirale ist Hyperinflation.

Meine zwei Sats sind, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit natürlich immer besteht, allerdings bin ich persönlich davon überzeugt, dass der US Dollar, wenn überhaupt, die letzte Währung sein wird, die eine Hyperinflation erlebt, da vorher ganz andere Währungen das Zeitliche segnen müssten.

Doch um bei der These zu bleiben, bietet Bitcoin eine alternative Lösung zur Hyperinflation. Denn die USA könnten ihre Verluste reduzieren, indem sie auf eine Bitcoin-gestützte Leitwährung wechseln. Dazu sind die USA auch bestens aufgestellt: Die von Minern aufgebrachte Hashrate ist nirgendwo größer, als in den USA, Bitcoin-Bestände in Wallets sind nirgendwo größer als in den USA und die größten Bitcoin-Unternehmen, Unternehmen die Bitcoin fördern, oder Technologie entwickeln, die Bitcoin zugute kommt, sitzen in den USA.

Würden die USA, bzw. die US-Notenbank, zu einem Bitcoin-gestützten Währungssystem wechseln, müssten alle anderen Länder der Welt nachziehen, solange die USA diese (oben beschriebene) globale Vormachtstellung in der Weltwirtschaft noch innehaben. Dies würde den USA einen gewaltigen First-Mover-Vorteil bescheren, da nirgendwo sonst die Infrastruktur und der Zugang zu Bitcoin so stark ausgeprägt sind.

Es ist also nur eine politische Entscheidung, ob dieser First-Mover-Vorteil ausgenutzt wird oder nicht. Indem die Nutzung (institutioneller oder privater Art, Mining, Innovation, etc.) eingeschränkt wird, z.B. durch Verbote, Besteuerung, oder andere ungünstige Gesetze, wird die gesamte Branche und damit das technische Wissen, die Innovation und das damit verbundene Kapital ins Ausland verdrängt und die USA schießen sich ins eigene Bein.

Es wird sicherlich institutionellen Widerstand geben, da die derzeitigen institutionellen Akteure stark vom aktuellen System profitieren und daher nicht zu einem Bitcoin-Währungssystem wechseln wollen, in dem sie keine Zensurrechte und keine exklusiven Übertragungsrechte haben. Daher werden US-Institutionen wie die Notenbank und das Finanzministerium von diesem Ansatz nicht allzu begeistert sein, doch wenn sie es ernsthaft genug betrachten und erkennen, dass es sich hierbei um eine Form der geopolitischen, strategischen Kriegsführung handelt, könnten sie gezwungen sein, ihre Meinung zu ändern und sich auf ein neues System vorzubereiten, das den Idealen, wie Freiheit, Redefreiheit, Eigentumsrechten und solides Geld, treu bleibt, auf denen die USA gegründet wurden.

Peruvian Bull und Marty Bent führen in dieser Episode noch weitere Punkte aus, doch die mir wichtigsten Punkte habe ich wieder erwähnt. Kurz zusammengefasst: Die USA stehen davor, ihre globale Vormachtstellung zu verlieren. Ein Ausweg könnte die Adaption von Bitcoin als Retter des US Dollar sein. Die USA haben den fruchtbarsten Nährboden für eine solche Änderung des Systems, da sie heute schon die meiste Hashrate, das größte geistige Eigentum und Innovation, als auch das meiste Kapital bündeln.

Die USA hätten also in der Theorie ein sehr großes Interesse daran, Bitcoin als Lösung und zur Stützung ihres globalen Finanzmonopols zu adaptieren.

Zwei Theorien in zwei entgegengesetzte Richtungen 👈👉

Auf der einen Seite sehen wir ein Argument, weshalb den USA daran gelegen wäre, das aktuelle System so lange wie möglich aufrechtzuerhalten und dem alten Mann auf Krücken unter die Arme zu greifen. Auf der anderen Seite besteht ein Argument dafür, dass die USA ein gesteigertes Interesse daran haben sollten, das alte System so schnell wie möglich hinter sich zu lassen und die Pole Position, die die USA im Bereich Bitcoin haben - ohne Regierungs-seitig was dafür getan zu haben - für sich zu nutzen, um dem alten Mann auf Krücken zu einer Verjüngung zu verhelfen.

Es ist schwierig einzuschätzen, welchen Weg die USA gehen werden, da es immer noch keinen allgemeinen Konsens darüber gibt, wie Bitcoin zu betrachten ist. Der kürzlich vorgestellte DAME-Gesetzesentwurf (Digital Asset Mining Energy excise tax), also eine Verbrauchssteuer für Miner, der Biden-Regierung, würde von Bitcoin-Mining-Unternehmen verlangen, eine 30% Steuer auf die Stromkosten zu zahlen, die für das Mining von Bitcoin verwendet werden. Ein solches Gesetz würde die Mining Industrie aus dem Land drängen, da Miner heute schon auf sehr knappen Margen operieren und somit unprofitabel würden. Dies gleicht einer Bestrafung von Unternehmen für das Streben nach Innovation und technologischem Fortschritt.

Auf der anderen Seite gibt es aber auch die Ansicht, Bitcoin müsse ins Land geholt werden, da man es dort am besten kontrollieren kann, ganz nach dem Motto "Halte deine Freunde nah und deine Feinde noch näher". So z.B. Carole House, ehemalige Direktorin für Cybersicherheit des Nationalen Sicherheitsrates des Weißen Hauses. Sie sprach bei einem Event an der Universität von Princeton und sagte "sie würde lieber mehr Hashrate in den USA sehen, damit sie Miner zwingen können, das Netzwerk zu zensieren" und dass es "nicht nur darum ginge, Minern zu sagen, dass sie bestimmte Transaktionen nicht in Blöcke einbauen, sondern auch nicht auf Blöcken mit nicht konformen Transaktionen aufzubauen, damit diese Transaktionen nirgendwo in der Kette ankommen".

Wir sehen also, dass es selbst zwischen den Gegnern von Bitcoin keinen endgültigen Konsens gibt, wie das Thema in Zukunft angegangen werden soll. Da ist esnicht verwunderlich, dass auf Ebene eines Paradigmenwechsels, den die Adaption von Bitcoin von Seiten der Notenbank bedeuten würde, noch unklarer ist. Für mich sind beide Erklärungen logisch. Allerdings wissen wir nur zu gut, dass Regierungen es manchmal nicht so mit Logik und Vernunft haben.

🫳🎤

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In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ 207ad2a0:e7cca7b0

Quick context: I wanted to check out Nostr's longform posts and this blog post seemed like a good one to try and mirror. It's originally from my free to read/share attempt to write a novel, but this post here is completely standalone - just describing how I used AI image generation to make a small piece of the work.

Hold on, put your pitchforks down - outside of using Grammerly & Emacs for grammatical corrections - not a single character was generated or modified by computers; a non-insignificant portion of my first draft originating on pen & paper. No AI is ~~weird and crazy~~ imaginative enough to write like I do. The only successful AI contribution you'll find is a single image, the map, which I heavily edited. This post will go over how I generated and modified an image using AI, which I believe brought some value to the work, and cover a few quick thoughts about AI towards the end.

Let's be clear, I can't draw, but I wanted a map which I believed would improve the story I was working on. After getting abysmal results by prompting AI with text only I decided to use "Diffuse the Rest," a Stable Diffusion tool that allows you to provide a reference image + description to fine tune what you're looking for. I gave it this Microsoft Paint looking drawing:

and after a number of outputs, selected this one to work on:

The image is way better than the one I provided, but had I used it as is, I still feel it would have decreased the quality of my work instead of increasing it. After firing up Gimp I cropped out the top and bottom, expanded the ocean and separated the landmasses, then copied the top right corner of the large landmass to replace the bottom left that got cut off. Now we've got something that looks like concept art: not horrible, and gets the basic idea across, but it's still due for a lot more detail.

The next thing I did was add some texture to make it look more map like. I duplicated the layer in Gimp and applied the "Cartoon" filter to both for some texture. The top layer had a much lower effect strength to give it a more textured look, while the lower layer had a higher effect strength that looked a lot like mountains or other terrain features. Creating a layer mask allowed me to brush over spots to display the lower layer in certain areas, giving it some much needed features.

At this point I'd made it to where I felt it may improve the work instead of detracting from it - at least after labels and borders were added, but the colors seemed artificial and out of place. Luckily, however, this is when PhotoFunia could step in and apply a sketch effect to the image.

At this point I was pretty happy with how it was looking, it was close to what I envisioned and looked very visually appealing while still being a good way to portray information. All that was left was to make the white background transparent, add some minor details, and add the labels and borders. Below is the exact image I wound up using:

Overall, I'm very satisfied with how it turned out, and if you're working on a creative project, I'd recommend attempting something like this. It's not a central part of the work, but it improved the chapter a fair bit, and was doable despite lacking the talent and not intending to allocate a budget to my making of a free to read and share story.

The AI Generated Elephant in the Room

If you've read my non-fiction writing before, you'll know that I think AI will find its place around the skill floor as opposed to the skill ceiling. As you saw with my input, I have absolutely zero drawing talent, but with some elbow grease and an existing creative direction before and after generating an image I was able to get something well above what I could have otherwise accomplished. Outside of the lowest common denominators like stock photos for the sole purpose of a link preview being eye catching, however, I doubt AI will be wholesale replacing most creative works anytime soon. I can assure you that I tried numerous times to describe the map without providing a reference image, and if I used one of those outputs (or even just the unedited output after providing the reference image) it would have decreased the quality of my work instead of improving it.

I'm going to go out on a limb and expect that AI image, text, and video is all going to find its place in slop & generic content (such as AI generated slop replacing article spinners and stock photos respectively) and otherwise be used in a supporting role for various creative endeavors. For people working on projects like I'm working on (e.g. intended budget $0) it's helpful to have an AI capable of doing legwork - enabling projects to exist or be improved in ways they otherwise wouldn't have. I'm also guessing it'll find its way into more professional settings for grunt work - think a picture frame or fake TV show that would exist in the background of an animated project - likely a detail most people probably wouldn't notice, but that would save the creators time and money and/or allow them to focus more on the essential aspects of said work. Beyond that, as I've predicted before: I expect plenty of emails will be generated from a short list of bullet points, only to be summarized by the recipient's AI back into bullet points.

I will also make a prediction counter to what seems mainstream: AI is about to peak for a while. The start of AI image generation was with Google's DeepDream in 2015 - image recognition software that could be run in reverse to "recognize" patterns where there were none, effectively generating an image from digital noise or an unrelated image. While I'm not an expert by any means, I don't think we're too far off from that a decade later, just using very fine tuned tools that develop more coherent images. I guess that we're close to maxing out how efficiently we're able to generate images and video in that manner, and the hard caps on how much creative direction we can have when using AI - as well as the limits to how long we can keep it coherent (e.g. long videos or a chronologically consistent set of images) - will prevent AI from progressing too far beyond what it is currently unless/until another breakthrough occurs.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Table Of Content

• The Lazarus Group's Cryptocurrency Holdings

• A Significant Drop in Holdings

• No Privacy Coins in Sight

• Underreported Holdings?

• Previous Attacks and Thefts

• Warnings and Threats

• Conclusion

• FAQ

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, security breaches and cyber heists have become alarmingly common. One name that frequently emerges in relation to these digital thefts is the Lazarus Group. This North Korean hacking collective has been linked to a series of high-profile cyber-attacks, amassing a significant amount of cryptocurrency in the process. This article delves deep into the group's activities, their holdings, and the implications of their actions on the crypto world.

The Lazarus Group's Cryptocurrency Holdings

The Lazarus Group, originating from North Korea, has made headlines with its vast cryptocurrency holdings. Recent reports suggest that this hacking collective has a digital treasure chest worth around $47 million. Bitcoin, the most popular and valuable cryptocurrency, forms the bulk of their holdings, with an estimated value of $42.5 million. In addition to Bitcoin, the group has diversified its holdings with Ether (ETH) valued at $1.9 million, BNB (BNB) worth $1.1 million, and a mix of stablecoins, primarily Binance USD (BUSD), which amounts to approximately $640,000.

A Significant Drop in Holdings

While the current figures are staggering, there has been a noticeable decline in the Lazarus Group's cryptocurrency assets. Data indicates that their holdings were valued at $86 million as of September 6. This value plummeted in the aftermath of the Stake.com hack, an event that saw the Lazarus Group as a prime suspect. Dune Analytics, a data monitoring platform, has been keeping a close eye on the group's activities. They have identified 295 wallets associated with the Lazarus Group, information corroborated by agencies like the FBI and the OFAC.

No Privacy Coins in Sight

For a hacking group that thrives on anonymity, it's surprising to note the absence of privacy coins in their portfolio. Coins such as Monero (XMR), Dash (DASH), and Zcash (ZEC), known for their enhanced privacy features, are conspicuously missing from their holdings. However, this hasn't deterred the group from continuing their operations. Their crypto wallets, devoid of privacy coins, have seen consistent activity, with the latest transaction recorded on September 20.

Underreported Holdings?

The figures mentioned might just be the tip of the iceberg. According to 21.co, the Lazarus Group's actual cryptocurrency holdings could be much higher than what's currently reported. This assertion is based on the data available to the public, suggesting that the group might have undisclosed assets hidden away.

Previous Attacks and Thefts

The Lazarus Group's foray into the crypto world has been marked by a series of attacks and thefts. They were the masterminds behind the CoinEx exchange hack, which resulted in losses exceeding $55 million. Their nefarious activities don't end there. The FBI has linked them to other significant breaches, including those targeting Alphapo, CoinsPaid, and Atomic Wallet. These attacks, in 2023 alone, saw the group walking away with more than $200 million. However, there's a silver lining. Chainalysis reports indicate a decline in crypto thefts by hackers associated with North Korea, with an 80% drop recorded from 2022.

Warnings and Threats The digital realm remains under the shadow of the Lazarus Group. Recent alerts from U.S. federal authorities have highlighted the group's potential to target critical sectors, including the U.S. healthcare and public health domains. These warnings underscore the group's capabilities and the persistent threat they pose.

Conclusion

The Lazarus Group's activities serve as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in the digital space. Their vast cryptocurrency holdings, accumulated through a series of hacks and breaches, highlight the need for enhanced security measures in the crypto world. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, it's imperative for stakeholders to remain vigilant, ensuring that their assets are protected from such sophisticated threats. The story of the Lazarus Group is not just about a hacking collective's exploits but a call to action for the broader crypto community.

FAQ

Who is the Lazarus Group? The Lazarus Group is a North Korean hacking collective known for its high-profile cyber-attacks and significant cryptocurrency holdings.

How much cryptocurrency does the Lazarus Group hold? The group is reported to have amassed around $47 million in cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin forming the majority of their holdings.

Were there any recent significant drops in their holdings? Yes, their holdings saw a decline from $86 million as of September 6, especially after the Stake.com hack.

Does the Lazarus Group hold any privacy coins? Surprisingly, the group does not hold any known privacy coins like Monero, Dash, or Zcash.

Have there been any warnings about the Lazarus Group's activities? U.S. federal authorities have issued warnings about the group's potential to target sectors like U.S. healthcare and public health.

That's all for today

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

@ 662f9bff:8960f6b2

Folks - it really is time to wake up. How many more wars do we need? War on the Virus, War on Terror, War in Afghanistan, War in the Middle East, War in Vietnam - now War in Ukraine and who knows where else?

I grew up in Belfast in the 1970s and lived through the proxy war fought in my hometown. More recently I lived through a remarkably similar situation here in HK during 2019 and observed it happening too in Bangkok with some of the same participants spotted in media clips who had travelled from HK, presumably to orchestrate it there too. For years the motto of Belfast was "Belfast Says No" and it was prominent in a huge banner on the City Hall. Bitterness and resentment reigned for years until "Peace Broke Out", led by the women of Belfast insisting that people "Stop Fighting". Remember the Peace People?

Bottom line - war is never good. Benefits to society only ever emerge at times when people are working together, trading and collaborating for the better good.

In such situations you have "Voice or Exit" - you can speak up (if you are allowed) or exit (if you are allowed). That is why I left Northern Ireland (exit); the mess continued for 25 more years after that.

Concerning "Exit" - did you ever wonder why governments are now restricting the rights to travel? Or if/how you can preserve wealth if/when war develops?

The perpetual war footing that we find ourselves in was clearly warned about in George Orwell's 1984 - drumbeat of hostile distant foreign empires and their aggressions and victories. Sound familiar to anyone? Strangely, this was the conclusion of the "Report from Iron Mountain" from a 1967 US government panel which concluded that war, or a credible substitute for war, is necessary if governments are to maintain power. Search and ye shall find (still). Link here in case you cannot find it or are lazy!

Will you or your family benefit from what they say they are doing in your name?

By the way - the American People knew all this when they rebelled against the British and wrote their Constitution,

For those who prefer a more structured reading list, take your pick below:

• The Creature from Jekyll Island - The untold history of the FED...
• Sovereign Individual - written in 1997 they did predict personal computers, mobile phones, cryptocurrencies and even the current pandemic situation..
• The Fourth Turning - we have been here before
• The Fiat Standard - How it works - what you were never taught at school
• When Money Dies - The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany
• The Price of Tomorrow - The key to an abundant future is not what you have been told
• One of the best interviews of the year: Peter and Lyn discuss Currency wars
• Report from Iron Mountain - On the Possibility and Desirability of Peace

That's it!

No one can be told what The Matrix is. \ You have to see it for yourself.

Do share this newsletter with any of your friends and family who might be interested.

You can also email me at: LetterFrom@rogerprice.me

💡Enjoy the newsletters in your own language : Dutch, French, German, Serbian, Chinese Traditional & Simplified, Thai and Burmese.

@ 554ab6fe:c6cbc27e

Time is the most precious. Spending time with those we love, relaxing and enjoying peace of mind, and finding time for simple pleasures that warm our hearts are all examples of why we value time over everything else. We all want more time and know how finite it is.

In a previous article, I discussed how a better name for Bitcoin could be the Entropy Engine. In brief, Bitcoin is the Entropy Engine because system users rely upon entropic processes, either through private key generation or the mining process, to benefit from the system. Additionally, considering that life on earth is the consequence of the second law of thermodynamics, it is evident that Bitcoin accelerates our entropic purpose by monetizing energy production in a way never seen in human history. Bitcoin is all things entropy.

After writing the previous article, it slowly dawned on me that Bitcoin is valuable precisely because of its constraints related to entropy. Being an Entropy Engine gives Bitcoin the property of being scarce, and scarcity alongside utility brings value. These properties stem from the relationship between entropy and time. This article will discuss the relationship between entropy, time, and scarcity. These concepts will then help explain economic principles and pave the way to explaining why Bitcoin is a fascinating invention that brought economic value to the digital world.

Entropy is a measure of the disorder or randomness in a system. Essentially, entropy reflects the number of ways a system can be arranged, with higher entropy indicating more possible arrangements and more significant disorder. In an isolated system, entropy tends to increase over time, articulated through the second law of thermodynamics, which states that natural processes move towards a state of maximum entropy1. Our everyday experience with entropy can best be explained through heat. When energy is used to perform work, some of it gets released as heat, increasing the system's entropy by making the energy more dispersed and less useful.

Another impact entropy has on our daily lives is through the experience of time. As previously stated, the second law of thermodynamics states that, in a closed system, entropy always increases over time. Therefore, there is this dynamic where entropy is continuously growing, and our participation in a universe with such a law gives rise to the experience of an arrow of time1. In other words, time is a psychological experience resulting from interacting with a universe governed by the second law of thermodynamics1. It may seem intuitive to anyone reading this, but it is worth highlighting that time is always moving forward because entropy is continually increasing. No human can get any time back. From the point of view of a human, time is finite. Like energy and matter, which, according to the first law of thermodynamics, can neither be created nor destroyed, time is one of the universe's most limited resources.

Understanding the finite nature of time, energy, and matter is fundamental in economics. In his treatise on economics Man, Economy, and State with Power and Markets, Murray Rothbard states that "A man's time is always scarce. […] Therefore, time is a means that man must use to arrive at his ends. It is a means that is omnipresent in all human action"2. He goes on to state that "[…][i]n the first place, all means are scarce, i.e., limited with respect to the ends that they could possibly serve. […] Secondly, these scarce means must be allocated by the actor to serve certain ends and leave other ends unsatisfied. This act of choice may be called economizing the means to serve the most desired ends"2. Economics is fundamentally the study of how human beings make choices that allocate resources to satisfy their desires. Rothbard here highlights how because both time and the planet's resources are finite, human beings must choose how to allocate those resources. On aggregate, these individual decisions lead to the flourishing of human society as it develops and grows by becoming more and more efficient in resource allocation.

We all live on this one planet together. The resources on this earth are finite, which raises the question of how best to allocate these resources to satisfy everyone's needs and desires peacefully. The study of economics shows that free markets, which facilitate the free decision-making process of every human being, are the best way for all the resources to be allocated to maximize human flourishing if it is done so under the principle of non-aggression2,3. Notably, markets are needed because time and matter/energy are finite in the first place and are the necessary means to satisfy our ends. Put another way, economic value exists because of the scarce and useful nature of resources.

Consider now the vital relationship between the laws of thermodynamics and economics. The first law of thermodynamics, which states that matter and energy cannot be created nor destroyed, gives rise to the fact that resources are scarce on earth, which fuels economic decision-making amongst human beings. Additionally, the second law of thermodynamics, which highlights the universe's entropic nature, indicates that time is also scarce, valuable, and an integral aspect of economic decision-making, as all economic actions must use time. Most importantly, as described in more detail in the previous article, biological life can be viewed as the consequence of the entropic process of the universe. Life formed to help accelerate the increase in entropy. The process by which humans utilize energy and help accelerate the increase in entropy can also be viewed from an economic lens: economic decision-making helps drive the pursuit and innovation of energy production and usage. If economics is the study of the process by which human beings collectively make decisions, through individual action, that drive our societal progress forward. Then it is also the study of how human beings further accelerate their role in the entropic process of the universe. Entropy is the reason why we have economic markets, and economic markets help accelerate the entropic process. It is impossible to separate the laws of thermodynamics from the existence of the economic process within human society.

What is also appropriate to consider is the necessary properties of money. Nick Szabo, in his work "Shelling Out: The Origins of Money," provides an anthropological interpretation of how the use of money developed4. In trade, two potentially untrusting parties must find a way to trust one another. To do so, we can rely upon tokens of record governed by the laws of nature, which we all can trust. A commodity can be a helpful medium of exchange when it is scarce and hard to reproduce to the degree that people understand the extreme amount of energy and effort it would take to counterfeit one. Scarcity is how homo-sapiens detect the energy required to obtain a given object, giving it trust and validity as a unit of record. In this way, the first law of thermodynamics, which expresses matter as finite, provides a condition from which human beings can benefit by using it to trust one another. Not only is scarcity an underlying property that is the cause for economics, but the scarcer commodities, or at least those with the highest stock-to-flow ratio, are used as a medium of exchange that allows for more productive exchange within the economy5. In other words, most of a certain kind of scarcity is an underlying property in what makes high-quality money.

What is then interesting to ponder is the concept of the most scarce. One of the scarcest things we value, that which is most scarce, is time. Due to the second law of thermodynamics, time is the most finite and scarce resource. There is no way of 'recovering' or 'creating' more time. In that same vein, money can be conceptualized as an economic abstraction of time. I work now to receive money, which I can use to satisfy an end later. Similarly, I invest some money now so that it may grow, and I can benefit even more from that money later. Money and time are linked. Therefore, it stands to reason that the soundest form of money will be related to time in some fundamental sense. The better a money can store time, the more attractive that money is to use.

One significant component that contributes to the considerable innovation of Bitcoin is the difficulty adjustment. The difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin ensures that the time to mine a block remains close to 10 minutes, regardless of changes in the total mining power (the amount of energy being contributed to the network). This adjustment is crucial because it prevents blocks from being mined too quickly or slowly as miners join or leave the network. By recalibrating every 2016 blocks, the network maintains a certain rhythm, creating a new block every 10 minutes. It isn't easy to design a circuit board that can track time accurately and autonomously without relying on external time sources. However, creating a computer network that emulates the laws of thermodynamics via the mining process while simultaneously including the difficulty adjustment to give the machine a sense of time allowed it to adopt properties that were unique to nature itself. In this case, it is the first digital software that fully inherited the properties of scarcity.

Judging the correct ending for an article that blends so many disciplines is difficult. Perhaps the best way is to go full circle. The works of Donald Hoffman suggest that time is a consequence of human consciousness, not fundamental to the universe, that serves a positive utility towards our evolutionary pursuit of survival6. The predecessor article to this one highlighted how life is a consequence of the entropic nature of the universe. Perhaps time and our perceived relationship between time and entropy are helpful for life in pursuing its nature in this regard. Human beings gravitate towards scarce money like mosquitos gravitate toward light because it can be beneficial in the economic pursuit, which drives us toward the efficiency of furthering the production of entropy. This is potentially why those studying Bitcoin tend to view it as a technology of freedom, peace, prosperity, and more because money is a fundamental tool at which we are allowed to pursue such inherent purpose.

References

1. Grünbaum A. TIME AND ENTROPY. Am Sci. Published online 1996.

2. Rothbard MN. Man, Economy, and State with Power and Markets. Second Edition. Ludwig von Mises Institute; 1977.

3. Mises L von. Human Action: A Treatise on Economics. Ludwig von Mises Institute; 1940.

4. Szabo N. Shelling Out: The Origins of Money. Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. Published 2002. Accessed April 19, 2023. https://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/

5. Ammous S. The Bitcoin Standard. Wiley; 2018.

6. Hoffman DD, Prakash C. Objects of consciousness. Front Psychol. 2014;5(JUN). doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00577

@ 662f9bff:8960f6b2

Still pleasant weather in HK but it is cooling down and in a few days we will likely shift in to the cold and cloudy January/February that is HK winter.

A shorter update from me this week as I think the more important things are in the links below. Read, watch, listen and DYOR. Maybe time to wake up?

Reading

I have now started on When Money Dies - The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Once aware of them you will see signs all around you. FYI quite apparent now in Turkey.

Interesting also: I think it is not linked on their website but still accessible if you know where to look (maybe download and safestore it before it disappears): The Bank of England 1914-21 (Unpublished War History). This corroborates and elaborates on what you can read in The Creature from Jeckyll Island.

Watching

Just a few things to watch this week - in the order that I watched them. They are long but rather important - so I am pushing this out early in the weekend so you have time.

Mattias Desmet on Our Grave Situation

Professor Mattias Desmet (from Ghent, Belgium) talks about his work that connects past historical episodes of what is called “Mass Formation” (aka Mass Psychosis) and current events. The risks are as grave as they come. Unless a few brave and courageous people are willing to stand up and say “I don’t agree!” history suggests that we will end up with a fully totalitarian outcome. That is a dark path. It inevitably leads to mass casualties and atrocities. Eventually all totalitarian systems end in their own destruction.

Dr Robert Malone on Joe Rogan Experience

Its a looong interview but there are timestamps below if you want to dip in. \ Dr. Robert Malone is the inventor of the nine original mRNA vaccine patents, which were originally filed in 1989 (including both the idea of mRNA vaccines and the original proof of principle experiments) and RNA transfection. Dr. Malone, has close to 100 peer-reviewed publications which have been cited over 12,000 times. Since January 2020, Dr. Malone has been leading a large team focused on clinical research design, drug development, computer modeling and mechanisms of action of repurposed drugs for the treatment of COVID-19. Dr. Malone is the Medical Director of The Unity Project, a group of 300 organizations across the US standing against mandated COVID vaccines for children. He is also the President of the Global Covid Summit, an organization of over 16,000 doctors and scientists committed to speaking truth to power about COVID pandemic research and treatment.

Here are some of the key points discussed with time codes:

• 24:19: An estimated 500,000 COVID Deaths resulted from the suppression of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).
• 25:39: Former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Dr. Janet Woodcock, intentionally prevented doctors from using HCQ outside of the hospital setting (HCQ is one of the few antiviral medications safe in pregnancy and is largely ineffective once a person has been hospitalized).
• 31:10: Pharma industry’s systematic efforts to discredit ivermectin.
• 32:40: COVID deaths in the Indian State of Uttar Pradesh plummeted soon after packets of medicines were distributed to their population. It is suspected these packets included Ivermectin but this was never formally disclosed. This puzzling policy went into effect soon after a meeting between President Biden and Prime Minister Modi.
• 36:28: Increased risk of adverse events from vaccinating after SARS-COV2 infection.
• 38:40: 140 studies demonstrate natural immunity is superior to vaccine-induced immunity. Natural immunity is 6- to 13-fold better than vaccination in preventing hospitalization.
• 43:44: The Trusted News Initiative employed to protect western elections from foreign influence was used to justify the suppression of “misinformation” around the pandemic.
• 50:15: Emails between NIH Director Francis Collins and Fauci demonstrate an intention to launch a smear campaign against the founders of the Great Barrington Declaration.
• 54:00: How is Israel (highly vaccinated) faring in comparison to Palestine (poorly vaccinated)?
• 57:00: Why is good data nearly impossible to find?
• 1:06:00: The regulatory process is broken because vaccine manufacturers are responsible for their own data (FDA is not doing its job as a regulatory body).
• 1:14:50: Arguably the best clinicians of our day are having their medical licensure attacked.
• 1:22:50: Hong Kong study demonstrates that 1 in 2,700 boys getting hospitalized with myocarditis after vaccination.
• 1:27:00: Lipid nanoparticles pose danger to ovaries.
• 1:46:30: Long COVID and post-vaccination syndrome are impossible to differentiate.
• 1:49:00: Dysregulation of T-cells after vaccination may be causing latent virus reactivation (e.g., shingles).
• 1:59:00: Omicron and the possible negative efficacy of vaccines.
• 2:06:20: What is Original Antigenic Sin?
• 2:20:00: Monoclonal antibody therapies are still important but have been limited by our authorities.
• 2:22:10: Vaccine mandates are illegal.
• 2:35:50: Pfizer is one of the most criminal pharmaceutical organizations in the world.
• 2:37:00: What are mass formation psychosis and tribalism?
• 2:53:00: We are having a worldwide epidemic of suicide in children.

That's it!

No one can be told what The Matrix is. \ You have to see it for yourself.

Do share this newsletter with any of your friends and family who might be interested.

You can also email me at: LetterFrom@rogerprice.me

💡Enjoy the newsletters in your own language : Dutch, French, German, Serbian, Chinese Traditional & Simplified, Thai and Burmese.

@ d34e832d:383f78d0

Lets explore three key aspects of Bitcoin technology to enhance your engagement with the ecosystem:

1. Running an Alby Hub Cloud Instance
2. Setting Up a Nutshell Ecash Mint on an Affordable VPS
3. Integrating Nostr Wallet Connect for Seamless Tipping

These components empower users to manage transactions, ensure privacy, and facilitate smooth interactions within the Bitcoin and Nostr communities.

1. Running an Alby Hub Cloud Instance

Purpose and Benefits:

Alby Hub is a self-custodial Lightning wallet that allows you to manage Bitcoin transactions efficiently. By running an Alby Hub instance in the cloud, you gain 24/7 online access to receive payments via a Lightning address, integrate with various applications, and maintain control over your funds without the need for personal hardware.

Setting Up Alby Hub in the Cloud:

• Choose Alby Cloud: For a hassle-free setup, Alby offers a cloud service where you can start your own hub in just 2 minutes. Give it A Try: Alby Cloud

• Subscription Benefits: Subscribing to Alby Cloud provides you with a self-custodial Lightning wallet, 24/7 online access, exclusive partner deals, priority support, and access to a subscriber community.

• Self-custodial Lightning wallet

• Getting Started: Visit the Alby Cloud page, select the subscription that suits you, and follow the guided setup process to have your hub up and running quickly.

• Alby Cloud page

For a visual guide on setting up Alby Hub, you can watch the following tutorial:

2. Setting Up a Nutshell Ecash Mint on an Affordable VPS

Purpose and Benefits:

Nutshell is an implementation of Ecash, a digital cash system that prioritizes privacy and anonymity. Setting up a Nutshell Ecash mint on a Virtual Private Server (VPS) allows you to operate your own mint, enhancing transaction privacy and providing a backup system for your Bitcoin transactions.

Setting Up on a $5 VPS:

• Select a VPS Provider: Choose an affordable VPS provider that supports Bitcoin and Nostr communities. For instance, SatoshiHost offers VPS services tailored for such needs.

• Install Nutshell: After setting up your VPS, install the Nutshell software by following the official installation guide.

• Nutshell

• Full Cashu Implementation

• Configure the Mint: Set up the mint parameters, including denomination and security settings, to suit your requirements.

• Secure the Server: Implement security measures such as firewalls and regular updates to protect your mint from potential threats.

• Recommendations
• Server Tips

3. Integrating Nostr Wallet Connect for Seamless Tipping

Purpose and Benefits:

Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) is an open protocol that enables applications to interact with Bitcoin Lightning wallets. Integrating NWC allows for seamless tipping and payments within Nostr apps, enhancing user experience and promoting engagement.

Integration Steps:

• Choose a Supporting App: Select a Nostr app that supports NWC, such as Amythystor Damus.

• Connect Your Wallet: Use NWC to link your preferred Lightning wallet to the Nostr app. This connection facilitates seamless payments without the need to switch between applications.

• Test the Integration: Perform a test transaction to ensure that the tipping functionality works as intended.

• Maintain Security: Regularly update your wallet and Nostr app to incorporate the latest security features and improvements.

For a deeper understanding of Nostr Wallet Connect and its significance, you can watch the following discussion:

Final Thoughts On Setup

Implementing these components enhances your interaction with the Bitcoin ecosystem by providing efficient transaction management, improved privacy, and seamless integration with Nostr applications. By running an Alby Hub cloud instance, setting up a Nutshell Ecash mint on an affordable VPS, and integrating Nostr Wallet Connect, you contribute to a more robust and user-friendly Bitcoin environment.

Invitation for Feedback

I encourage you to share any questions or feedback regarding these topics. Let's continue the conversation to explore how we can further engage with and improve upon these technologies.

@ 3ffac3a6:2d656657

Prologue: The Last Trade

Ethan Nakamura was a 29-year-old software engineer and crypto enthusiast who had spent years building his life around Bitcoin. Obsessed with the idea of financial sovereignty, he had amassed a small fortune trading cryptocurrencies, all while dreaming of a world where decentralized systems ruled over centralized power.

One night, while debugging a particularly thorny piece of code for a smart contract, Ethan stumbled across an obscure, encrypted message hidden in the blockchain. It read:

"The key to true freedom lies beyond. Burn it all to unlock the gate."

Intrigued and half-convinced it was an elaborate ARG (Alternate Reality Game), Ethan decided to follow the cryptic instruction. He loaded his entire Bitcoin wallet into a single transaction and sent it to an untraceable address tied to the message. The moment the transaction was confirmed, his laptop screen began to glitch, flooding with strange symbols and hash codes.

Before he could react, a flash of light engulfed him.

---

Chapter 1: A New Ledger

Ethan awoke in a dense forest bathed in ethereal light. The first thing he noticed was the HUD floating in front of him—a sleek, transparent interface that displayed his "Crypto Balance": 21 million BTC.

“What the…” Ethan muttered. He blinked, hoping it was a dream, but the numbers stayed. The HUD also showed other metrics:

• Hash Power: 1,000,000 TH/s
• Mining Efficiency: 120%
• Transaction Speed: Instant

Before he could process, a notification pinged on the HUD:

"Welcome to the Decentralized Kingdom. Your mining rig is active. Begin accumulating resources to survive."

Confused and a little terrified, Ethan stood and surveyed his surroundings. As he moved, the HUD expanded, revealing a map of the area. His new world looked like a cross between a medieval fantasy realm and a cyberpunk dystopia, with glowing neon towers visible on the horizon and villagers dressed in tunics carrying strange, glowing "crypto shards."

Suddenly, a shadow loomed over him. A towering beast, part wolf, part machine, snarled, its eyes glowing red. Above its head was the name "Feral Node" and a strange sigil resembling a corrupted block.

Instinct kicked in. Ethan raised his hands defensively, and to his shock, the HUD offered an option:

"Execute Smart Contract Attack? (Cost: 0.001 BTC)"

He selected it without hesitation. A glowing glyph appeared in the air, releasing a wave of light that froze the Feral Node mid-lunge. Moments later, it dissolved into a cascade of shimmering data, leaving behind a pile of "Crypto Shards" and an item labeled "Node Fragment."

---

Chapter 2: The Decentralized Kingdom

Ethan discovered that the world he had entered was built entirely on blockchain-like principles. The land was divided into regions, each governed by a Consensus Council—groups of powerful beings called Validators who maintained the balance of the world. However, a dark force known as The Central Authority sought to consolidate power, turning decentralized regions into tightly controlled fiefdoms.

Ethan’s newfound abilities made him a unique entity in this world. Unlike its inhabitants, who earned wealth through mining or trading physical crypto shards, Ethan could generate and spend Bitcoin directly—making him both a target and a potential savior.

---

Chapter 3: Allies and Adversaries

Ethan soon met a colorful cast of characters:

• Luna, a fiery rogue and self-proclaimed "Crypto Thief," who hacked into ledgers to redistribute wealth to oppressed villages. She was skeptical of Ethan's "magical Bitcoin" but saw potential in him.

• Hal, an aging miner who ran an underground resistance against the Central Authority. He wielded an ancient "ASIC Hammer" capable of shattering corrupted nodes.

• Oracle Satoshi, a mysterious AI-like entity who guided Ethan with cryptic advice, often referencing real-world crypto principles like decentralization, trustless systems, and private keys.

Ethan also gained enemies, chief among them the Ledger Lords, a cabal of Validators allied with the Central Authority. They sought to capture Ethan and seize his Bitcoin, believing it could tip the balance of power.

---

Chapter 4: Proof of Existence

As Ethan delved deeper into the world, he learned that his Bitcoin balance was finite. To survive and grow stronger, he had to "mine" resources by solving problems for the people of the Decentralized Kingdom. From repairing broken smart contracts in towns to defending miners from feral nodes, every task rewarded him with shards and upgrades.

He also uncovered the truth about his arrival: the blockchain Ethan had used in his world was a prototype for this one. The encrypted message had been a failsafe created by its original developers—a desperate attempt to summon someone who could break the growing centralization threatening to destroy the world.

---

Chapter 5: The Final Fork

As the Central Authority's grip tightened, Ethan and his allies prepared for a final battle at the Genesis Block, the origin of the world's blockchain. Here, Ethan would face the Central Authority's leader, an amalgamation of corrupted code and human ambition known as The Miner King.

The battle was a clash of philosophies as much as strength. Using everything he had learned, Ethan deployed a daring Hard Fork, splitting the world’s blockchain and decentralizing power once again. The process drained nearly all of his Bitcoin, leaving him with a single satoshi—a symbolic reminder of his purpose.

---

Epilogue: Building the Future

With the Central Authority defeated, the Decentralized Kingdom entered a new era. Ethan chose to remain in the world, helping its inhabitants build fairer systems and teaching them the principles of trustless cooperation.

As he gazed at the sunrise over the rebuilt Genesis Block, Ethan smiled. He had dreamed of a world where Bitcoin could change everything. Now, he was living it.

@ 4d41a7cb:7d3633cc

Review

\ Dedicated to bitcoiners, who stand to benefit financially from the great wealth transfer that is taking place while the fiat system is being demonetized, the book emphasizes that true wealth is in the inner virtues and not in the outer.  Virtues are the spirit in which we do things; they are the most important thing because they define who we really are, beyond what we have. 

Real wealth comes from the virtues we live by.

As we navigate through periods of darkness, transition, and madness, marking the end of one cycle and the start of another, bushido serves as a beacon of light for those who seek to comprehend their own virtuous selves and contribute to the development of civilization. It recognizes that virtues serve as the foundation, a metaphysical science or natural law that surpasses religious beliefs.

The Bushido of Bitcoin serves as a guide for individuals seeking personal growth and a higher purpose during this period of change and adversity. We cannot acquire these values with fiat, gold, or bitcoin; we must cultivate them with patience and practice them on a daily basis. This is the ultimate form of lowering time preference: considering our legacy and future generations.

The War of All Ages

It is important to recognize that we are at war. This war is not new; I call it the war of all ages, and it is a war between slavery and freedom. Our ancestors have been fighting this war for millennia, and it is thanks to the warriors of the past that we are here now, enjoying our freedoms and all the things of modern life. 

This eternal war is interdimensional: it is a spiritual, intellectual, and physical war. To win, or at least have a worthy battle, we must start from the spiritual realm, the source of all. Only by becoming strong spirits and expanding consciousness can we win on the mental and physical plane. 

However, if we confine ourselves to the physical realm and attempt to combat and shape ourselves from there, we are unlikely to attain any significant outcomes. The war starts from within (against ourselves), and this book is here to help us understand exactly that. 

How you act physically shows your intellectual and spiritual state. The physical is the result of the metaphysical, and only by understanding this can we understand the immorality, the criminality, the ugliness, and the failure of the present system. These are the harmful fruits of a poisonous tree.

Aspects of the war & the virtues we must embody to win

It's better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war.

The Bushido of Bitcoin virtues are justice/righteousness, courage, compassion/love, honor, honesty/integrity, responsibility, excellence, respect, duty/loyalty, and restraint/self-control.

These are the qualities associated with leadership and responsibility. It takes active cultivation and practice to develop this set of virtues, but they are the key to achieve success in whatever we want to.  (...) In the materialistic world we are living in, these virtues are scarce, and as we know scarcity for something desirable makes it more valuable. Especially honor, responsibility and excellence virtues that are very difficult to find in the marketplace. 

> We transcend childhood by taking responsibility. (...)* The price of freedom, or more specifically autonomy, is responsibility. 

All these virtues are necessary to become real men and give a worthy fight during this war we call life, because the war starts with our biggest enemy: ourselves.  

### \ A war against ourselves

-Individuals = micro

The fiat system aims to crush our spirit and steal our soul. In order to win, we need to become the best version of ourselves. We need to improve in the fiscal, emotional, spiritual, and psychological aspects. How we all live and behave reflects our values back into society. Our behavior shapes who we become.

The Samurai believed in doing, not saying. Action and behavior demonstrated their faith, knowledge, and values more than words ever could. 

The miracle of being alive means that we had 4096 ancestors during the last 10 generations before us. That implies that there were 2048 couples of men and women who overcame hardship, built civilization, learned, taught, fought, reproduced, and died. They went through all of this, and who knows what else had to happen for us to be here and now. 

This is a sign of gratitude to be alive and an awakening of a desire to honor our ancestors and our descendants. We have in our blood a strand of DNA that contains unique information from all of them. If we fail to follow the lineage of our ancestors, we are essentially discarding centuries of biological, intellectual, and economic wealth.

THIS IS WHY BUILDING A STRONG FAMILY IS OUR PRIMARY DUTY.

True mastery lies in the real beyond comfort, and requires you transcend technology, by becoming the protagonist of the story. (...) You are either the producer or the product. You are either the master of your domain, or you are a slave to circumstance. You either establish your own territory, or you are a guest (or a captive) of somebody else (…) Territory is not only physical, it is also metaphysical; it includes the body, the mind and the spirit.** 

In order to be a protagonist, you need to be honest with yourself; you need to take responsibility and stop outsourcing the result to politicians, priests, or experts. We possess the power, and we must reclaim it as we relinquished it voluntarily. If we outsource the responsibility, we are victims or slaves. Victims and slaves are weak; they are domesticated humans. 

Victims are not free; they are slaves of their fears, beliefs, and circumstances. Being free is about taking responsibility, making everything you can shape your fault, and placing yourself at the cause and not at the effect. It's not what happens to you but what you do with it that matters.

Without self-control, you are a slave; you are at the behest or control of something else—be it the circumstances, impulses, or another person. It’s not virtuous to be a slave, to live dependent, or to impose ideas on others that you do not live by.

> If courage is the peak virtue of a warrior, then self-control is the peak virtue of the leader.*

Lying is a sign of weakness, dishonor, and shame. And this starts with the lies we tell ourselves, before we lie to others. In order to be free we have to recognize we are slaves sometimes in some ways, and it has always been like this. 

As the battle for the soul of humanity rages on, Bitcoiners, being the most likely group to ascend economically speaking, have a duty to become better people, and men in particular must lead. 

Given the current leadership crisis, it is imperative that we develop into strong leaders as soon as possible. If we don't, then who will? And in order to do this, we must lead by example, especially by resisting impulses that might lead to harmful or destructive behaviors.

Becoming stronger, wiser, and richer is not an option; it is our duty. If we are soft of the body, we are also soft of the mind and spirit. 

Whether the goal is strength, endurance, courage, or self-control, instead of trying to minimize pain all the time, we might seek instead to gradually increase how much pain we can bear. The goal being not an escape from pain, but a transcendence or integration of it. 

Also being mindful of your relationships and time with others is your greatest asset.

The ability to say no is a superpower. Slaves must say ‘yes’ to everything, but the master and the sovereign individual is he who can say no.**

You are in charge of your own destiny. 

### \ Culture war

-Sum of the individuals = macro

The materialistic view of humanity is what brought us here: Marxist, Keynesian, collectivist, mob rule democracies, and every ideology and system that ignores the universal truths. Such systems are bound to collapse from their inception. The immorality of the monetary system, which supported the information war against us through lies, indoctrination, and false mental models that most people operate under, is the direct cause of these systems' failure.

Dystopian societies are built on micromanagement, interruption, interference, and surveillance. They are built on the idea that the human beings who make them up are numbers on a spreadsheet that can be mathematically manipulated as though they’re all equal.

History has repeatedly demonstrated the failure of this ideology and its system. The only thing keeping it alive is the infinite debt system. However, the cycle is nearing its conclusion, and the fiat system has reached its peak; there's no turning back.

Argentina has become aware of this phenomenon and has expressed its desire for freedom and a reduction in state intervention. They have come to understand that socialism is the root of all evils, a realization that began with their central bank. Even the former president recognized this fact and communicated it to the people, educating them about Austrian economics. This is a sign of the changing times we are going through. 

Not only do we believe fairy tales about world affairs in this culture war, but we also learn toy versions of economics, law, and politics. Not only do they teach us to despise our history, our ancestors, and those "backward systems," but they also instill a hatred for our past.

People tell us that the founding fathers of our republic were racists and tyrants, that the Bible and the constitutions were merely a creation of primitive minds, and that its significance has diminished in modern times. This is all part of a plan to create chaos and weaken the foundations of our society so they can gain control. 

To be truly honorable and worthy of remembrance is to have respect for yourself, for others, for tradition, for authority, and even for your enemy.

If we use our common sense and judge by their fruits, paying attention to the architecture, the arts, the literature, and the culture of the time, it's easy to see that they were achieving better results than those we are experiencing today. So we should ask the question: Why? 

Of course, weak money has a significant influence on our time preference, but it's not the only factor. The root cause lies in the virtues; it is evident that the religions, cultures, and governments of the past performed their function more effectively than we do today because they were somehow more truthful and virtuous in their intentions. 

We are transitioning, but we are still living in a culture that incentivizes weakness and immorality while disincentivizing strength and character. Cheap dopamine and excessive comfort are depleting our energy and purpose, contributing to the high rates of depression and suicide.

It’s our responsibility to start changing this. We are going through a death spiral that is destroying families, the fundamental core of our humanity, with debt, inflation, and taxes. The ideologies, distractions, and challenges of the modern world are leading us in a completely opposite direction to the one our ancestors followed, and it is not difficult to see that that direction is the abyss.

Family is the most important unit and is precisely what’s been attacked by the globalist, communist, slave, and ghoul classes of the world because it is an institution of saving and compounding, not only for material wealth, but for biological, intellectual, and spiritual wealth.** 

The power structures are actively pursuing this goal through various means. The power structures are not only extracting our economic wealth through fiat money, which is in danger of collapsing, but they are also taking our spiritual and biological wealth. This is the real three-dimensional war I talk about. 

Instead of needing to rebuild again from scratch, the new generation of strong men can make the necessary repairs and build onwards to new heights. (...) allow humanity to better converse and compound its progress. This is the key to real civilizational progress. 

The status quo has reached this level of madness and tyranny because people do not want to see, hear, and speak the truth. Lying is a sign of weakness, dishonor, and shame; these are common aspects of today's democratic systems and fiat institutions, which act as magnets for dishonest people and parasites.

As G. Michael Hopf said: 'Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.

We are going through hard times created by weak men that were corrupted by power, not because power is evil.

It’s very easy to see people selling their soul for material possessions, and this is a clear sign of weakness and a lack of self-respect. (...) Slaves and parasites sell their souls, their dignity, and their honor for money. The point of being sovereign is that you do not.

“For what shall it profit a man if he shall gain the whole world and lose his own soul?” Jesus Christ 

Now we are transitioning, strong men are rising to create good times again.

These are the acts of a hero: to tell the truth in a world of lies. To inspire others to do the same.

But saying the truth is not enough, we need to take action, create, expand and protect.

Economic war

Thanks, Satoshi, for Bitcoin!

Empires and nations crumble along with their currencies and trade. Financial education is crucial to navigate this process and emerge stronger, rather than weaker.

Money is power, and you must learn how to channel it (...) We must master money like we master the sword or the pen (...) You have to both adopt the virtues laid out in this book and master the economic game. Money is power, and power is necessary—not evil. Power is just your capacity to channel energy, and money is fundamentally just that: energy.

By becoming better, smarter, and more affluent, we will beat them at their own game. (...) To ultimately wrest control from the parasites, we need a new class of leader: warrior-merchant-philosopher-king.**

Not all value can be measured in money, and this is critical for maintaining a relationship to the ‘moral’ or sacred dimension of the universe. While material wealth is important, spiritual wealth remains something no amount of money can buy. 

How much better to get wisdom than gold, to get insight rather than silver! Proverbs 16:16**

Satoshi solved one of the biggest problems in human history: an unjust monetary system. Specifically, the debt-based fractional reserve system that the moneychangers created to steal from producers.

Broken money breaks everything else downstream. It destroys the individual, the family, and the community, and in time, it destroys the state itself, unless they have full, digital, panopticon control over it—which is why they want CBDCs so badly. They will distract you with fairy tales about AI, racism, and climate change, while the real threat is coming to a bank account near you.

This system and its traps are as old as civilization itself, from the times of Jesus Christ to Napoleon to the present. The immorality and criminality of this system have significantly impacted various aspects of our civilization and culture, including the economic situation, education, communication, and the food and health industries, to name a few.

We need to understand and respect the stage of the cycle we are in, recognize it, and adapt. 

> Bitcoin makes this whole game of monetary inflation and hidden theft much harder to play. In fact, it’s impossible to issue new bitcoin, so if you adopt it, you’re on that standard, and if you do not, in time the money you are using will trend to worthless against Bitcoin. We either choose to adapt to its reality or pay the price of not doing so.We need to understand and respect the stage of the cycle we are in, recognize it, and adapt.*

Bitcoin makes this whole game of monetary inflation and hidden theft much harder to play. In fact, it’s impossible to issue new bitcoin, so if you adopt it, you’re on that standard, and if you do not, in time the money you are using will trend to worthless against Bitcoin. We either choose to adapt to its reality or pay the price of not doing so.

For the first time we have a culture of savers, known as hodlers” (...) “Bitcoin made savings great again (...) Saving is the cornerstone for a functional, stable, and sovereign life and civilization. 

Humankind will forever remember October 31, 2008, as the turning point in its timeline. Since that moment, we have gained access to a set of rules devoid of rulers, enabling us to retain and store all the fruits of our labor in a parallel energy based hard money system. This allows us to enjoy the benefits of natural deflation, which artificial inflation had been stealing from us for decades.

Satoshi fixed the money, the foundation of our society, the backbone of commerce, and the most significant language of humanity, enabling global communication and value exchange without any barriers. He also provided us with a tool to break free from financial slavery.

For the first time in history, we can safeguard our private property in a pure metaphysical manner, shielding it from physical threats and violent theft. This completely changes the dynamic of power and incentives. 

If you have any interest in the importance of family, children, or legacy, then saving independent, incorruptible money (i.e., Bitcoin) must be the central part of your economic focus. Wake up and stop supporting the enemy. Stop feeding the parasite. Have some self-respect and store your wealth in Bitcoin.

Governance war

Globalism vs National Sovereignty

Globalism contradicts national sovereignty by allowing a supranational entity to make decisions for the "greater good of the earth." This may seem absurd, but it's precisely what they're attempting to achieve.

Globalism (hidden communism / collectivism) is a failure. Every nation and culture has its unique ways; we are not equal, it is impossible to lump them all together and attempt to control them at the same time under the same ways. This is what institutions like the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the IMF want. Instead, they should not do it because they lack authority and nobody asked them to, and because it's practically impossible.

Lying is a sign of weakness, dishonor, and shame; common aspects of nowadays democratic systems and fiat institutions that act like magnets for dishonest people and parasites.

Feudalism was not all tyranny and oppression.” (...) “This gross misunderstanding of feudalism is somewhat expected considering what happened during the French Revolution.” (...) “It was only after the fall of feudalism that we opened the door to true despotism and large-scale democracy worldwide. Democracy and mob rule lead to the fall of nations, peoples, and empires. Money printing comes after and helps it along.

The only thing they can do, and they have been doing, is destabilizing the nations, incentivizing mass migrations, and creating economic chaos just to justify their interference (going a)and “help.” All of this is aimed at creating justifications for increasing the deficit and printing more money for their own agendas.

They envision a society of mindless automatons, or NPCs, controlled by algorithms, akin to numbers in a computer. They have already been enslaving the nations and succeeded in many aspects. This was only made possible by their ability to control the nations through their access to credit and their conditions.

The parasites and hyenas have become overly confident and arrogant, thinking they can nip at our heels, torment our families, and tear down everything beautiful around us, as if we won’t notice. They have confused tolerance and slumber for weakness.

But Bitcoin can change this dynamic forever. If nations want to protect their sovereignty, they have to grow their hashrate capacity and bitcoin reserves. Additionally, it is crucial for their citizens to increase their production, savings, and investments in bitcoin. The first step to killing a parasite is to stop feeding it, so we need to stop using their system whenever possible and adopt alternative and parallel options. Prioritizing local producers and consumer-focused products over solely profit-seeking businesses is crucial.

Good governance comes from good leadership. By inspiring people and pulling them along, you create more leaders who each have more autonomy. Ruling by fear and punishment is ineffective in the long run (...)

> Now we are coming awake and getting angry—which is precisely what the bureaucratic class is most afraid of.*

Be The Change (BTC)

You want to see in the world

It is time to stand up for what’s right. We are at war—a war against our freedom. 1776 or 1984 is our choice, and we vote with our behavior; whether conscious or unconscious, we are participating in the outcome.

Bitcoin comes with a duty and loyalty to your future self, your family, your community or tribe, and, for a select few, a duty to the world (...) This is the ultimate lowering of one’s time preference and perhaps the most fundamental utility of a sound money like Bitcoin (...) To be a bitcoiner comes with the duty to be an honorable person, because having freedom comes with the responsibility to do something with it.

Courage is not the absence of fear but the quality of mind and spirit that enables one to meet danger in spite of it. It’s faith in action—the virtue to face danger or death in order to defend what’s right. Courage is doing what's right, despite the consequences.

Fear is the number one enemy, killer of initiative, abundance, and a fulfilling life. The Bible writes "Fear not" 365 times. The number one fear is the fear of death. Once you conquer this fear, you'll overcome most others, and nothing can stop you.

A phrase I love is: Let your fear of regret be stronger than your fear of failure. So embrace courage and live the life you want to. 

We need to get stronger, more conscious, wiser, and more powerful. Elevate ourselves and surround ourselves with like-valued individuals. 

Build an alliance of men to protect your women, your families, and your tribe. Use this alliance to strengthen each other and hold each other accountable. Develop rites of passage together. 

> The pace of change is faster than it has ever been.* 

We have the power, and we need to demonstrate this, leading by example and inspiring others to take action.

We are the only legitimate teachers and role models for our children, and they are likewise the only legitimate role models for their—not the government, Hollywood, Netflix, social media, their ‘peers, and certainly not some disembodied virtue-signaling global organization that thinks it knows best.

We are empowered to shape history. Following these virtues, seeking truth and taking action is the way. With tools like Bitcoin and Nostr, freeing money and data sharing from centralized control, we can break the chains forever, to build a more just and free world.

Build family, create deep relations with like-valued people, and leave a legacy for the coming ones. (...) Find a mission, a family, a tribe, or virtues worth dying for. 

This is our time. A new energy is rising.

I want to thank you, Aleksandar Svetski, for this masterpiece and encourage you to continue sharing your wisdom with others.

Bitcoin and Nostr, or slavery!

@ 6bae33c8:607272e8

I didn’t have much at stake this weekend, only my home picking pool — I finished second this week, so no $70 payout — and not becoming a buyer in the Steak League. Jonnu Smith did just enough in the late games to keep me in fifth place out of eight, which is self-buyer status, perfect if I don’t make it back to LA this summer. The reason you want to be the self-buyer if you don’t show for the dinner is you neither have to pay, nor do you let one of the NLMs who should have had to foot your tab off the hook! If I go to LA, I’ll be happy to pay for my own steak.

I also went 4-1 ATS in Circa to finish at 48-41-1, not nearly good enough to cash, but at least respectable.

• I laid the 18 with the Ravens, and it was easy. DTR is the worst QB of all time, and Bailey Zappe is maybe the 60th best in the league. Rashod Bateman came through big time for me in Steak and will be important if Zay Flowers isn’t ready for the playoffs.

• I would give Lamar Jackson the MVP — his numbers are off the charts (8.8 YPA, 41:4 TD/INT, 915 rushing yards, 6.6 YPC) — and the Ravens are still the No. 3 seed. He led the league in YPA and YPC! But it’s Josh Allen’s “turn”, and his teammates weren’t as good, so he’ll probably win.

• Derrick Henry led all RBs with 5.9 YPC on 325 carries including short yardage. He just turned 31 the other day too.

• It’s too bad the Bengals missed the playoffs. A bad call Week 1 against the Pats cost them that game (and my Survivor entry.)

• Ja’Marr Chase had a fantasy season for the ages — not just a triple crown, but one where he had a 12-175-4 lead over the second best performers in every category (ARSB, Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin, respectively.)

• The Steelers have zero upside, even if they are ever-so-slightly dangerous to their division rival in Round 1.

• The Bucs really struggled with a garbage Saints team. I didn’t think they’d have to force-feed Mike Evans the record and his bonus at the minute risk of nuking their season, but they did.

• The Eagles backups were better than the Giants starters, who knew? Malik Nabers had 109 catches in 15 games with garbage QB play. He’s a first-rounder next year.

• The Giants get the No. 3 pick which is great because they might avoid the QB minefield and get Travis Hunter.

• Someone made a good point about Saquon Barkley potentially getting the rushing record in 17 games — he’d still have done it in fewer carries than Eric Dickerson. Moot point, obviously.

• Think the Broncos have a puncher’s chance against the Bills.

• Jonathan Taylor sure had some big games after his fantasy owners were eliminated from the playoffs. He’ll go in the second round again next year.

• Josh Downs has 100-catch upside if he stays healthy and the Colts get passable QB play. Not sure what they’ll do with Anthony Richardson though — maybe going down the Trey Lance career path.

• Brian Thomas is going early to mid-second round next year, and I’ll be in.

• Circa Survivor had some insane sweats with the Packers and Falcons. Ten people out of 18 went down on those two games. The Packers one was especially bad as the Bears had it locked up, fumbled, got the Packers a miracle reprieve, only to win the game on their own last-second 50-plus FG.

• I guess the Packers went all-out because they really didn’t want to have to play in Philly next week, but now Jordan Love is banged up, Christian Watson tore his ACL and they’re going to Philly anyway.

• Bryce Young made one of the biggest comebacks I’ve ever seen. To be as bad as he was his rookie year, then so bad his second year he lost his job to Andy Dalton, only to finish this strong is amazing. The Panthers probably would still prefer C.J. Stroud, but it’s much less egregious than it was.

• Bijan Robinson had one of the quietest monster RB years I can remember. He was a quasi-bust at cost early on but finished with 61 catches, 15 TDs and 1,887 YFS.

• I didn’t see much of 12-inch, but the Falcons put up 38 points, and Drake London went off. London will go late first-early second again next year.

• Of course Kyler Murray has his monster game when it doesn’t matter. Actually, I was going against him in Steak, and the guy behind me (Josh Ross) nearly caught me for self-buyer, so it almost mattered.

• I nearly cost myself steak by starting Aaron Rodgers over Joe Flacco last week, and this week I started Flacco. Lineup setting is the worst part of fantasy football — you will be wrong at least 40 percent of the time when it’s close. I think the Dolphins were No. 1 in stinginess against opposing fantasy QBs too.

• I’m happy Rodgers likely finished his career with a good game and a win. People can ding him for his personality, but the signal is he stood up to unimaginable vitriol and hate and did the right thing for his health. He makes for a 10x better role model than the “class-acts” who complied.

• Jonnu Smith was such a beast for me in the second half of the year. He’s got to be a top-five TE on next year’s boards as he always showed flashes of this, and Tyreek Hill isn’t getting any younger.

• The Rams host the Vikings instead of the Killer Redskins as a result of their loss. That sounds bad, but given how poorly Sam Darnold played in the biggest game of the year and how the teams have suffered the subsequent week after playing the physical Lions, it might work out in their favor. The Rams are a sleeper in the NFC.

• I thought the Chargers might rest people, but I was wrong. I guess playing the Texans rather than the Ravens is kind of a big deal. I was also going against Quentin Johnston in Steak, which only worked out for me because it’s half PPR, and he didn’t score.

• Brock Bowers broke Malik Nabers’ briefly held rookie catch record. I probably wouldn’t take Bowers in Round 1, but there’s a case for it.

• I had Wil Lutz in Steak, and I was pleading for the Broncos not to keep scoring TDs. Usually in blowouts, you get lots of FGs in the second half.

• Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims are entertaining in Sean Payton’s offense. They’ll probably get crushed by the Bills, but if you’re Buffalo you’d rather draw the Texans or Steelers than a young team with this kind of energy.

• Another reason I’m not buying in Steak is Ross started based Harrison Butker who missed his only kick and got a zero.

• Remember all those midwits who said you always draft a QB early, and running backs don’t matter? The Lions took a washed up, unwanted Jared Goff, surrounded him with a first-round offensive tackle and running back and decisively secured the No. 1 seed depsite losing half their defense.

• So much for Sam Darnold as a dark horse MVP. He couldn’t deal with the Lions pressure and didn’t see the field well. What a change in trajectory from last week. If the Rams knock out the Vikings, and Darnold plays poorly, who knows whether the Vikings will commit to him?

• Gibbs is such a beast. He took a nasty hit early in that game too.

• The Lions deserved the top seed. They were the best team in the NFL all year, lost a ton of defensive players to injury, but seem to be coming together again at the right time.

@ a24d0c86:ec0f47ce

It's been nearly two years since I generated my Nostr npub, and I'm still blown away by its impact. Nostr has been THE catalyst for my rabbit hole journey, opening doors to new worlds and experiences.

Back when I was trying to figure out how to handle my nsec, I was stuck in a rut. I'd founded and run a business for over a decade, but my passion had fizzled out along with it's revenues. Compound that with the accelerating decline in fiat and it was a depressing situation. It was time for a change, but I wasn't ready to burn the boat without a clear (or even general) direction.

Fast forward to today, and I've officially closed that chapter. I'm beyond excited to embark on this new journey into FOSS product, and 2025 marks the year I'm fully committed to this new path. It's taken longer than I wanted, but good things come to those who wait, right? And if I'm being honest, I have much more clarity, support and 100k never hurts as I start down this pursuit!

My journey from 2023 to 2025 has been a wild ride and I wouldn't change all that I had to slog through to get here. Recently as I've gotten back into the habit of checking in on Nostr I'm reminded why I fell in love so quickly, with its unique blend of humor, creativity, and innovation.

Nostr is a gateway for me to better understanding software engineers especially. It's incredible the amount of knowledge and PoW so many devs on Nostr have and it's humbling to even bounce around with you on this wonky protocol.

That constant experience made me want to put the effort and sats into attending the Lightning Summit at Bitcoin Park in the summer of 2023. And it didn't disappoint. I got to see up close so many talented devs tackling complex technical challenges with fearlessness and ingenuity. These pioneers are paving the way for future adoption, and I'm ready to dive in and help push the ecosystem forward with the skillset I have today and what I'm building in my toolbox for the future.

Meeting fellow Nostr enthusiasts at Nosterville took my enthusiasm to another level in November 2023. It's like reigniting the excitement I felt when I first discovered the internet. It's mind-blowing to think about the potential this new protocol has to remake the web. 2024 I was much less active on Nostr as I was planning and taking the steps needed to move on in 2025. And now I'm finally ready to rock and roll.

As a product enthusiast, I'm stoked to help engineers get their projects ready for the masses. Let's make open source awesome, and let's get a ton of plebs on board!

To better contribute and build with developers, I'm committed to expanding my technical knowledge too. This includes learning the basics with GitHub to Python, Rust, AI, and ML. I'm also going to be switching to GrapheneOS as my daily driver and learning Linux. I'm eager to bring my product experience to the table and collaborate with others.

Going forward, I'm focusing specifically on helping build the Cashu protocol and how it intersects with Nostr and Lightning.

If you're a developer, especially one working on Cashu, I'd love to hear from you!

How can I assist with product-related tasks?

I'm here to build and contribute to the growth of the freedom tech ecosystem.

LFG.

@ dd664d5e:5633d319

Ingredients

• 1 kg of pork roast with rind, such as shoulder or a lean belly
• 1 bottle of beer, light or dark
• chopped German-style mirepoix (best combination, for this recipe, includes celery root, carrot, red onion, and leeks)
• salt, pepper, nutmeg
• 1 diced garlic clove

Directions

1. Spread the vegetables on the bottom of the roasting pan.
2. Pour half the beer over the roast. (Drink the other half.)
3. Season the meat, to taste.
4. Roast the meat at 180 °C, until done (depends upon the weight of the roast).
5. Remove the meat from the oven, and wrap in aluminum foil.
6. Pour 2-3 cups of water into the roasting pan.
7. Pour/scrape everything from the pan into a sieve over a sauce pot.
8. Press the vegetables against the sieve, with the back of a spoon, to ensure that you get all that good dripping flavor into the sauce.
9. Defat the sauce with a grease separator, then pour it back into the pot.
10. Thicken the sauce, slightly (it should remain slightly watery, and not turn into a gravy), according to your usual method.
11. Open the foil and slice the roast.
12. Serve with the sauce.

@ da19b5d2:1f6cbfaa

I hear it all the time. People want to save up X amount so they can retire. Apparently, it is this time and space we are all supposed to want to get to. But what does it mean? I hear things like I want to travel, I want to have free time to spend with family, I want to not have to work, I want to play golf, I want to buy some property. And what else? What next? For me, if I am not working on building or contributing something towards a vision, I feel like I have no purpose. What is a hu-man with no purpose? Where are we truly headed, perhaps it is a mirage. I think what we really want is freedom to work on the things we want to work on. Don't we all want a reason to get up in the morning? Don't we always want to have a goal in mind to work towards? What if you suddenly had financial freedom? How would you actually spend your days. Have you thought about what you would do in your 'retirement'? Obviously this is a very personal question. I want to hear what people are passionate about making happen in their future. And if we are making things happen, are we really re-tired or are we just finally free? Why would want anyone to be tired again? 😉 Thank you for reading and commenting. 💚

@ 378562cd:a6fc6773

In our hyper-connected world, we are constantly bombarded with information — news of tragedies, celebrity gossip, and societal controversies — all delivered to us in real-time, whether we ask for it or not.

But here’s a profound truth: If you don’t know about it, it doesn’t matter to you. It’s almost like it doesn’t even happen!

This isn’t about apathy or ignoring the suffering of others. It’s about recognizing that our minds and hearts have limits. There’s only so much we can hold, care for, or act upon before it all becomes noise. And when we step back and filter out what truly matters to us, we find a liberating sense of peace.

In our hyper-connected world, we are constantly bombarded with information — news of tragedies, celebrity gossip, and societal controversies — all delivered to us in real-time, whether we ask for it or not.

When Knowing is a Burden

Consider this: if a bus full of strangers tragically ran off a cliff halfway around the world, it’s undeniably sad. But if you never heard about it, would it affect your day, your thoughts, or your actions? It wouldn’t. Not because you’re heartless but because it’s not within your sphere of influence or awareness.

Similarly, when a celebrity you barely know goes through a messy divorce, why does that need to occupy your thoughts? If you never knew about it, it would make no difference in your life. And yet, the world shouts these details at us, demanding our attention for things that often have no real bearing on our existence.

The Cost of Knowing Too Much

Knowing everything that happens everywhere comes with a cost:

• Emotional Overload\ The human mind isn’t designed to process the pain, suffering, or drama of millions of people at once. Constant exposure to these stories can lead to anxiety, sadness, or even a sense of helplessness.
• Loss of Focus\ The more attention we give to distant events or irrelevant gossip, the less energy we have for the people and moments that truly matter in our own lives.
• Manufactured Cravings\ Advertisements and media feed us desires we didn’t have before. A new product, a luxurious vacation, or a perfect lifestyle — all things you might not have craved if you hadn’t been shown them.

The Beauty of Not Knowing

When you step away from the constant influx of information, you create space to focus on what’s real and meaningful in your life.

• Your family and close friends. Their joys and struggles are the ones you can genuinely care about and impact.
• Your passions and goals. These deserve your full attention, free from unnecessary distractions.
• Your mental peace. Without the noise, you can think clearly, feel deeply, and live authentically.

What Truly Matters?

Not knowing isn’t about closing your eyes to the world. It’s about understanding the difference between what’s important and what’s irrelevant. It’s a practice of asking yourself:

• Does this affect me or the people I love?
• Can I do anything meaningful about this?
• Will knowing this bring me peace, joy, or purpose?
• Will BUYING this bring me peace, joy or purpose?

If the answer is no, it’s okay to let it go.

Living in Your Sphere of Influence

Focusing on what you can control and care for has immense power. Your energy has the most impact in your sphere of influence—the people, places, and things you interact with directly.

By letting go of what lies outside that sphere, you free yourself from unnecessary burdens and find deeper joy in the things that truly matter.

A New Year’s Challenge

This year, challenge yourself to embrace the art of not knowing.

• Curate your inputs: Limit news consumption to what directly affects you.
• Mute the noise: Avoid gossip, sensational headlines, and irrelevant drama.
• Stay present: Focus on the people and moments around you.

In doing so, you’ll find not only peace but also the clarity to live a life driven by your own values and priorities — not the ever-changing noise of the world.

The Freedom of Letting Go

When you embrace the profound truth that if you don’t know about it, it doesn’t matter to you, you unlock a freedom that few ever experience. You stop carrying the weight of the world’s chaos and instead focus on the beauty, joy, and love within your own life.

This year, let’s make peace with not knowing — and in doing so, rediscover what truly matters.

Breaking Free from the Cycle of Consumerism

Consumerism isn’t just about buying things — it’s about the constant hunger for more. More stuff, more information, more experiences. It thrives on the idea that what you have and who you are isn’t enough, and it manipulates you into believing that fulfillment lies just one purchase or experience away. But here’s the truth: the cycle of consumerism isn’t designed to fulfill you — it’s designed to keep you chasing.

If we want to find peace with not knowing, we must also confront the role consumerism plays in feeding our dissatisfaction and overstimulation.

The Problem with Consumerism

Consumerism is fueled by two main forces:

• Artificial Wants: Advertising and media don’t just sell products; they sell dissatisfaction. They show you a life that seems better than yours and make you believe that buying their product will bridge the gap.
• Overexposure: The constant influx of social media, news, and targeted ads ensures you’re always aware of what you don’t have, subtly making you feel inadequate or left out.
• The result? A world where happiness feels like it’s always just out of reach — an exhausting race that benefits corporations far more than individuals.

The Cost of Consumerism

The cycle of consumerism doesn’t just drain your wallet; it also takes a toll on your mental, emotional, and spiritual well-being:

• Mental Overload: Constant exposure to new products and ideas creates decision fatigue and anxiety.
• Emotional Burnout: Comparing your life to idealized versions portrayed in ads or social media can lead to dissatisfaction and low self-esteem.
• Spiritual Disconnect: Consumerism shifts your focus away from meaningful relationships, personal growth, and spiritual fulfillment, tethering your joy to material possessions.

# Combatting Consumerism: A Game Plan for Freedom

Breaking free from consumerism requires intentional effort, but it’s deeply rewarding. Here’s a game plan to start:

## 1. Detox Your Inputs - Unfollow Excess: Reduce your exposure to ads and influencers who push a lifestyle of constant consumption. - Limit Social Media: Spend less time scrolling through content designed to spark envy or desire. - Set Boundaries: Avoid shopping as a pastime or browsing “just to look.”

## 2. Shift Your Mindset - Practice Gratitude: Focus on what you already have, not what you lack. - Redefine Success: Measure your life by relationships, growth, and experiences, not possessions. - Adopt Minimalism: Learn to appreciate simplicity and find joy in having less.

## 3. Choose Quality Over Quantity - Invest in Essentials: Buy fewer items, but prioritize durability and quality. - Focus on Experiences: Spend on memories, not material things. - Be Mindful of Upgrades: Don’t replace what’s working fine just because something new is available.

## 4. Build Intentional Habits - Wait Before Buying: Give yourself 24 hours to think before making any purchase. - Create a Wishlist: Write down non-essential items you want. Review the list monthly to see if you still want them. - Track Spending: Be aware of where your money goes, and prioritize needs over wants.

## 5. Engage with Your Community - Support Local: Choose local businesses and artisans over big corporations. - Focus on Relationships: Invest time in people, not possessions. - Participate in Sharing Economies: Borrow, lend, and swap items with neighbors or friends instead of buying.

# Living a Life of Intentional Simplicity

This is food for thought and I promise you it is a battle at this point. It will be difficult but you must gain back control of your own thoughts, desires etc…

Take care and God bless!

@ b83e6f82:73c27758

Citrine 0.7.0

• Update quartz dependency
• Check if events are deleted
• Recover service after crash
• Add back button in the events screen
• Fix delete old events
• Fix backup dialog showing up again

Download it with zap.store, Obtainium, f-droid or download it directly in the releases page

If you like my work consider making a donation

Verifying the release

In order to verify the release, you'll need to have gpg or gpg2 installed on your system. Once you've obtained a copy (and hopefully verified that as well), you'll first need to import the keys that have signed this release if you haven't done so already:

bash gpg --keyserver hkps://keys.openpgp.org --recv-keys 44F0AAEB77F373747E3D5444885822EED3A26A6D

Once you have his PGP key you can verify the release (assuming manifest-v0.7.0.txt and manifest-v0.7.0.txt.sig are in the current directory) with:

bash gpg --verify manifest-v0.7.0.txt.sig manifest-v0.7.0.txt

You should see the following if the verification was successful:

bash gpg: Signature made Fri 13 Sep 2024 08:06:52 AM -03 gpg: using RSA key 44F0AAEB77F373747E3D5444885822EED3A26A6D gpg: Good signature from "greenart7c3 <greenart7c3@proton.me>"

That will verify the signature on the main manifest page which ensures integrity and authenticity of the binaries you've downloaded locally. Next, depending on your operating system you should then re-calculate the sha256 sum of the binary, and compare that with the following hashes:

bash cat manifest-v0.7.0.txt

One can use the shasum -a 256 <file name here> tool in order to re-compute the sha256 hash of the target binary for your operating system. The produced hash should be compared with the hashes listed above and they should match exactly

@ eee391ee:8d0b97c2

Amber 3.1.0

• Fix bunker requests showing up again after accepting
• Move bunker and nostrconnect to its own files
• Fix a infinite loop when receiving bunker requests
• Show relays after the app is connected
• Recover service when app crashes
• Update quartz dependency
• Fix ui contrast when using dark theme

Download it with zap.store, Obtainium, f-droid or download it directly in the releases page

If you like my work consider making a donation

Verifying the release

In order to verify the release, you'll need to have gpg or gpg2 installed on your system. Once you've obtained a copy (and hopefully verified that as well), you'll first need to import the keys that have signed this release if you haven't done so already:

bash gpg --keyserver hkps://keys.openpgp.org --recv-keys 44F0AAEB77F373747E3D5444885822EED3A26A6D

Once you have his PGP key you can verify the release (assuming manifest-v3.1.0.txt and manifest-v3.1.0.txt.sig are in the current directory) with:

bash gpg --verify manifest-v3.1.0.txt.sig manifest-v3.1.0.txt

You should see the following if the verification was successful:

bash gpg: Signature made Fri 13 Sep 2024 08:06:52 AM -03 gpg: using RSA key 44F0AAEB77F373747E3D5444885822EED3A26A6D gpg: Good signature from "greenart7c3 <greenart7c3@proton.me>"

That will verify the signature on the main manifest page which ensures integrity and authenticity of the binaries you've downloaded locally. Next, depending on your operating system you should then re-calculate the sha256 sum of the binary, and compare that with the following hashes:

bash cat manifest-v3.1.0.txt

One can use the shasum -a 256 <file name here> tool in order to re-compute the sha256 hash of the target binary for your operating system. The produced hash should be compared with the hashes listed above and they should match exactly.

@ d57360cb:4fe7d935

These no doubt have had profound effects on my life. If you undertake them consistently over years you’ll undergo change.

1. Reading. Read everything, eventually you’ll get curious and find what you enjoy. Your focus will improve.
2. Meditate. Finding peace in yourself is a cheat code. Then you can bring the peace with you anywhere you go.
3. Exercise. Build muscle, build cardio. You’ll feel better mentally and physically.
4. Recover. Make recovery your highest priority. Get enough sleep, spend less time on screen, clean up your diet, drink water, touch grass, play, and get some sun.
5. Buy Bitcoin, humbly ignore any alternative, hold strong.

This is the list. It’s basic, it’s simple, too good to be true.

It works, only if you stay the course.

@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Der Mempool ist voll. Voller als das Rosenrot an Heiligabend. Dies bedeutet in erster Linie hohe Transaktionsgebühren für On-Chain-Transaktionen. Doch auch während der Mempool verstopft ist, wie der Gotthardtunnel in der Urlaubssaison, bietet Bitcoins Layer 2 Lösung - das Lightning Netzwerk - schnelle und günstige Zahlungen, um Bitcoins Skalierungsgrenze zu überbrücken. Gerade in Zeiten von hohen Transaktionsgebühren und einem Mempool, der voller ist als Til Schweiger nach 13 Uhr, werden kleine Zahlungen, die On-Chain getätigt werden, immer unökonomischer und Lightning Zahlungen dadurch attraktiver.

Doch nicht jede/r Nutzer//in möchte auch gleichzeitig eine Lightning-Node betreiben, um in den Genuss zu kommen Lightning zu benutzen. In diesem Fall bieten Lightning Service Provider (LSP) und verschiedene Apps Abhilfe. Es gibt viele verschiedene Anbieter und viele verschiedene Varianten das gleiche Problem umzusetzen: Der/die Nutzer//in möchte mit möglichst wenig Aufwand Lightning benutzen und muss dazu seine/ihre Lightning Wallet zunächst erstmal mit (On-Chain) Bitcoin füttern. Das Umwandeln von L1 Bitcoin zu L2 Bitcoin übernimmt dann die Software. Aber auch andersherum kann es sein, dass Nutzer//innen viele Lightning Zahlungen erhalten und die gesammelten Sats gerne in L1 Bitcoin tauschen möchten. Um diesen Tauschvorgang abzuwickeln gibt es verschiedene Methoden. Eine dieser Methoden sind sogenannte Submarine Swaps.

---

Erstmal vorab: Bitcoin ist Bitcoin, ob On-Chain auf der Basisschicht (Layer 1), oder Off-Chain auf der zweiten Schicht (Layer 2) in Form von Lightning. Man könnte es mit Bargeld vergleichen: Geld auf dem Konto kann problemlos hin- und hergeschoben werden, man kann es auf andere Konten schieben, Überweisungen tätigen oder Depots bezahlen. Wenn man allerdings Bargeld in der Tasche haben will, muss man eine Brücke von der digitalen Kontenwelt in die analoge Bargeldwelt schlagen. Diese Brücke stellen Bankautomaten, Supermarktkassen oder Bankschalter dar, oder eben jede Stelle, an der man Bargeld abheben kann. Das Geldmittel bleibt dabei das gleiche, es verändert nur seinen Aggregatzustand. So kann man Bitcoin in Lightning auch beschreiben, denn Bitcoin bleibt Bitcoin, es hat nur seinen Aggregatzustand temporär verändert. Auf der einen Seite sind also On-Chain-Transaktionen oder Layer 1 (L1) Zahlungen, auf der anderen Seite werde ich von Off-Chain- oder Lightning-Zahlungen oder Layer 2 (L2) und Sats sprechen.

Refresher

Im Bitcoin Stack gibt es verschiedene aufeinander aufbauende Layer und Bitcoin - das Netzwerk - bildet dabei die Grundschicht, das Fundament, auf dem weitere Schichten aufbauen. Bitcoin braucht zusätzlichen Protokolle und Netzwerke, um einen hohen Transaktionsdurchsatz und zukünftiges Wachstum zu gewährleisten. Das bedeutet ganz einfach, dass die Leistung und Geschwindigkeit der Blockchain und der darauf erfolgenden Transaktionen nicht darunter leidet, wenn mehr Nutzer//innen und höhere Transaktionsmengen hinzukommen. Denn Bitcoin selbst ist nicht skalierbar. Die Blockgröße ist begrenzt, die Blockzeit wird auf 10 Minuten geeicht und zusätzlich aufgewendete Energie verschnellert die Erstellung neuer Blöcke nicht, macht sie nicht günstiger und auch nicht effizienter.

Layer 2, also die zweite Schicht, beschreibt Anwendungen und Protokolle, die auf der Basis des ersten Layers, der originären Bitcoin Blockchain, aufbauen. Diese Anwendungen sind unabhängig von Bitcoin insofern, als dass sie den Ablauf und den Code von Bitcoin nicht direkt beeinflussen, das Bitcoin Protokoll bleibt dabei unangetastet. Allerdings erlauben sie dem/der Nutzer//in einen Umgang mit Bitcoin und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, die über die nativen Funktionen von Bitcoin hinausgehen und fördern somit das Ökosystem rund um Bitcoin.

Lightning, die bekannteste Layer 2 Lösung, basiert auf einem Peer-to-Peer-System zur Durchführung von Mikrozahlungen über ein Mesh-Netzwerk von bidirektionalen Zahlungskanälen. Genau wie bei Bitcoin können bei Lightning eigene Netzwerkknoten betrieben und somit eigene Zahlungskanäle verwaltet werden.

Diese Zahlungskanäle ermöglichen es den Teilnehmer//innen, sich gegenseitig Geld zu überweisen, ohne alle ihre Transaktionen auf der Bitcoin-Blockchain öffentlich machen zu müssen. Zahlungskanäle werden geöffnet und die Blockchain sperrt in diesem Moment die verwendeten Bitcoins für die weitere Verwendung, und in Lightning wird nur der Gegenwert dieser Bitcoins gehandelt. Immer wenn Zahlungskanäle geschlossen werden, werden diese Transaktionen auf die Bitcoin Blockchain übertragen. Lightning-Zahlungen können auch über direkte Kanäle hinaus an andere Teilnehmer gesendet werden, da viele aufeinanderfolgende Kanäle miteinander verkettet werden können und sich eine Zahlung den besten Weg durch die Knotenpunkte dieses weitverzweigten P2P-Netzwerks sucht.

Anders als bei Bitcoin, muss der/die Betreiber//in eines Lightning-Knotens aktiv seine/ihre Kanäle und damit seine/ihre Liquidität managen. Es muss immer genug inbound (eingehend) und genug outbound (ausgehend) Liquidität zur Verfügung stehen, um Zahlungen sowohl zu tätigen als auch zu erhalten. Dies erfordert ein gewisses Verständnis und einen Verwaltungsaufwand, den nicht jede/r Nutzer//in bereit ist aufzubringen, da Kanäle (noch) jederzeit auf ihre Balance überwacht werden müssen.

Submarine Swaps erleichtern die Verwaltung der Liquidität dieser Lightning-Knoten. Sie können dabei helfen, eingehende Liquidität zu erhalten und Kanäle wieder aufzufüllen, wenn die Kapazität erschöpft ist, oder Tageseinnahmen in On-Chain Bitcoin umzuwandeln, um diese in Eigenverwahrung zu schützen.

Das Hauptproblem bei den verschiedenen Schichten im Bitcoin-Stack besteht darin, dass Transaktionen zwischen On-Chain-Bitcoin-Adressen (L1) und Off-Chain-Lightning-Adressen (L2) nicht direkt kompatibel sind. Man kann nicht einfach eine Lightning-Transaktion an jemanden senden, der Lightning nicht verwendet, sondern "nur" Bitcoin, oder umgekehrt. Diese Trennung schafft eine Barriere zwischen der Bitcoin-Blockchain und den Layer 2 Protokollen.

Submarine Swaps ermöglichen den direkten Austausch von Vermögenswerten zwischen Bitcoin (L1) und dem Lightning-Netzwerk (L2). Submarine Swaps sind eine spezielle Art von Atomic Swaps, die ohne Verwahrungsrisiko oder Counterparty Risk durchgeführt werden können.

Atomic Swaps

Atomic Swaps wurden eigentlich erfunden, um den Handel von Vermögenswerten zwischen zwei Blockchains mit unterschiedlichen Coins durchzuführen, heute bekannt als On-Chain Atomic Swap. Ein Beispiel wäre der direkte Austausch von Dogecoin oder Litecoin mit Bitcoin. Mit der Entwicklung und Einführung von Layer 2 Protokollen wurden Atomic Swaps schnell auch für Off-Chain-Transaktionen verwendet, ergo Off-Chain Atomic Swaps.

Was bedeutet dies in der Praxis? Ganz einfach dargestellt nehmen wir an, Person 1 und Person 2 wollen Bitcoin gegen Lightning-Bitcoin eintauschen. Person 1 hat einen bitcoin und bevorzugt 100.000.000 Sats im Lightning Netzwerk (🔗➡️⚡), da sie oft viele kleine Transaktionen tätigt, Person 2 hat 100.000.000 Sats im Lightning Netzwerk und würde gerne in On-Chain-Bitcoin tauschen (⚡➡️🔗), um ihr Erspartes in Selbstverwahrung zu verschieben. Wir nehmen auch an, dass Person 1 und Person 2 keine Lightning-Nodes oder Apps besitzen, die diesen Vorgang für sie automatisch übernehmen, es soll hier einfach die Transaktion verdeutlicht werden.

Um den Austausch durchzuführen, erstellt Person 2 zunächst eine Geheimzahl, einen Wert. Aus diesem Wert generiert sie dann auch einen Hash und sendet diesen Hash an Person 1, ohne den verborgenen Wert zu teilen. Dann erstellt Person 2 eine Transaktion und sperrt 100.000.000 Sats. Diese Sats können nur auf zwei Arten entsperrt werden. Entweder kann Person 1 mit Hilfe des ihr bekannten Werts die Sats einfordern, oder Person 2 kann ihre Sats nach Ablauf eines festgelegten Zeitraums (Anzahl von Blöcken) wieder zurückholen.

Im Moment können weder Person 1 noch Person 2 die Sats beanspruchen, da Person 1 den geheimen Wert nicht kennt (nur den Hash), und Person 2 kann die Sats nicht beanspruchen, da der Zeitraum noch nicht verstrichen ist. Diese zeitlich beschränkten Verträge nennt man Hash Time-Locked Contracts (HTLC).

Gleichzeitig erstellt Person 1 ihre Transaktion, die einen bitcoin sperrt. Der in dieser Transaktion gesperrte bitcoin kann auch wiederum nur auf zwei Arten eingefordert werden. Entweder kann Person 2 mit Hilfe des bekannten Werts den bitcoin einfordern, oder Person 1 holt sich ihren bitcoin zurück, nachdem der festgelegte Zeitraum verstrichen ist.

Beide Parteien haben also ihren jeweiligen Gegenwert für sich selbst gesperrt und für den anderen freigegeben, aber nur solange die Transaktion von beiden Seiten (in dem festgelegten Zeitraum) durchgeführt wird. Denn in dem Moment, in dem Person 2 den bitcoin einfordert, stellt sie Person 1 auch ihren geheimen Wert zur Verfügung, sodass sie die 100.000.000 Sats ausgezahlt bekommt. Für diese Transaktion zwischen zwei Parteien bedarf es keines Dritten. Lediglich die genutzten Smart-Contracts begünstigen diesen vertrauenslosen Handel, einen Atomic Swap zwischen dem Bitcoin-On-Chain und dem Bitcoin-Off-Chain-Lightning-Netzwerk.

Zurück zu Submarine Swaps

Ich möchte nochmal hervorheben, dass es sich um eine sehr vereinfachte Darstellung der Funktionsweise handelt, allerdings wollte ich auf abstrakte WEise erklären, wie diese SmartContracts funktionieren, ohne auf dem gleichen Protokoll zu laufen. Was bei Lightning-Lösungen zu Reibungen führt, ist das Verwalten von Kanälen, denn diese können aufgebraucht werden oder müssen neu ausbalanciert werden, wenn Nutzer//innen überwiegend Zahlungen empfangen oder versenden. Die größten Einschränkungen der aktuellen Lightning-Implementierung stellen das Öffnen und Schließen dieser Kanäle dar, da es dafür Transaktionsgebühren bedarf und eine gewisse Menge Bitcoin eingefroren wird, um einen Kanal zu öffnen. Dies bedeutet, dass ein Problem zwischen Lightning und On-Chain Bitcoin darin besteht, Gelder in und aus den beiden Umgebungen zu bekommen, ohne Kanäle öffnen und schließen zu müssen (um Kosten und Zeit zu sparen). Des Weiteren können Kanäle aufgebraucht werden, wenn Zahlungen hauptsächlich abfließen und es müssen neue Kanäle geöffnet werden, um die Nutzung fortzusetzen, obwohl im Wesentlichen unbegrenzte Transaktionen innerhalb eines Kanals gesendet werden können, solange die Netto Ein- und Ausgänge relativ stabil bleiben.

Die Verwaltung von Kanälen kostet On-Chain-Transaktionsgebühren und ist umso teurer, wenn der Mempool voller ist, als Johnny Depp nach der Trennung, was es unbequem, ineffizient und teuer macht, mehrere Kanäle wiederholt zu öffnen.

Submarine Swaps ermöglichen es, On-Chain Bitcoin in Off-Chain Bitcoin (🔗➡️⚡)- oder umgekehrt (⚡➡️🔗) - umzuwandeln. Sie basieren auf der gleichen Art von Bitcoin Smart-Contract wie Atomic Swaps, HTLCs, da diese sowohl On-Chain- als auch Off-Chain-Transaktionen umfassen können. Der Vorteil bei dieser Lösung liegt darin, dass HTLCs auch bei der Verkettung von Kanälen und Zahlungen verwendet werden und somit das Hauptkonstrukt für den Geldtransfer über das Lightning Netzwerk bilden. So wird Nutzer//innen und Wallet-Anbietern ermöglicht, Gelder vom Bitcoin-L1-Netzwerk direkt an das Lightning-Netzwerk oder andersrum vom Lightning-Netzwerk an das Bitcoin-L1-Netzwerk zu senden, ohne einen Drittanbieterdienst zu nutzen.

Damit bergen Submarine Swaps kein Counterparty Risiko und können ohne zusätzliche Barrieren wie Hintergrundprüfungen oder vertragliche Vereinbarungen durchgeführt werden. Entweder tauschen die beiden Parteien erfolgreich ihre Vermögenswerte aus, oder der Tausch findet nach Ablauf des festgelegten Zeitraums nicht statt. Aber zu keinem Zeitpunkt ist eine der Parteien in der Lage, mit den Einlagen der anderen Seite davonzukommen.

Die im Submarine Swap verwendete Form von HTLC-Smart-Contracts nennt man auch Swap-Provider und kann von einem Drittanbieter verwaltet werden, ist aber ein Smart Contract auf der Blockchain.Bekannte Implementierungen von Submarine Swaps direkt ins Endprodukt sind Lightning Wallets, wie Muun oder Breez.

Muun

Die Muun-Wallet ist notorisch dafür bekannt, eigentlich kein "echtes" Lightning-Wallet zu sein, denn alle Guthaben werden On-Chain in der Blockchain verwaltet. Die Muun-Wallet öffnet keine Kanäle für jeden Nutzer und verwendet stattdessen Submarine Swaps für Lightning-Zahlungen, was bedeutet, dass jedes Mal, wenn gesendet oder empfangen wird, eine On-Chain-Transaktion durchgeführt werden muss (und somit auch On-Chain-Gebühren anfallen). Dies bedeutet auch, dass Muun erstmal in Vorkasse geht, um schnelle Zahlungen aufrecht zu erhalten und ggf. Lightning-Zahlungen auf eine Blockbestätigung warten müssen, wenn Muun entscheidet, dass diese Transaktion ein zu hohes Risiko hat, unbestätigt ersetzt zu werden.

Der Vorteil dieses Ansatzes liegt darin, dass ein einheitlicher Kontostand dargestellt werden kann, der sowohl On-Chain- als auch Lightning-Transaktionen ermöglicht. Allerdings ist es nicht besonders einleuchtend, warum man sowohl L1 und L2 in einer Wallet verbinden muss, vor allem, wenn es bedeutet, dass sowohl Anbieter als auch Kunden potenziell höheren Gebühren ausgesetzt sind.

Breez

Ein weiterer Lightning-Wallet-Anbieter ist Breez. Auch hier werden Submarine Swaps genutzt, allerdings nur um Liquidität zu erzeugen. Denn obwohl L1-Bitcoin Zahlungen in Breez gespeichert werden können, bietet die Wallet die Möglichkeit, On-Chain-Bitcoin-Gelder über Submarine Swaps auf die Lightning-Wallet zu verschieben (🔗➡️⚡). Submarine Swaps werden in erster Linie verwendet, um eine einfache Benutzeroberfläche bereitzustellen. Das ermöglicht Breez vor allem auch, weniger Kanäle für seine Nutzer zu verwalten.

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Das Lightning-Netzwerk, aber auch alle andere Layer 2 Lösungen, sind unabdinglich, wenn es darum geht Bitcoin als Zahlungsmittel möglichst reibungslos, benutzfreundlich und vorallem günstig zu gestalten. Allerdings besteht immernoch ein Reibungspunkt zwischen L1 und L2 und dem verschieben von Geldwerten zwischen diesen beiden Schichten. Submarine Swaps sind eine Methode diese Reibung zu verringern, da sie Entwicklern die Möglichkeit bieten benutzerfreundliche Konzepte umzusetzen, die es ermöglichen Lightning-Wallets und -Services so zu programmieren, dass dem/der Nutzer//in der Transfer von Aggregatszuständen nicht bewusst wird.

Natürlich besteht auch die Möglichkeit diese Swaps selbst durchzuführen. Dafür gibt es viele Dienste, mit denen man einen Handel (Swap) durchführen kann. Einige Anbieter können sogar genutzt werden, um ein wenig Profit zu erzielen, denn manche Anbieter lassen sich Vorabliquidität in Form von On-Chain Bitcoin etwas kosten.

🫳🎤

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In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ 8f69ac99:4f92f5fd

Os humanos evoluíram para contar maçãs, não estrelas. Estamos programados para compreender números pequenos e tangíveis com facilidade, mas, no momento em que atingimos centenas ou milhares, os nossos cérebros começam a ter dificuldades. Esta limitação desempenha um papel significativo na fricção que as pessoas sentem ao tentar compreender Bitcoin, desde os seus fundamentos de segurança até ao seu sistema monetário.

A natureza abstracta de Bitcoin é construída sobre conceitos matemáticos complexos, incluindo criptografia e números grandes. No entanto, estes elementos podem ser esmagadores para muitos potenciais utilizadores, investidores e até especialistas. Neste artigo, vamos explorar porque é que os humanos têm dificuldade com números grandes e como esta limitação afecta a nossa compreensão de Bitcoin.

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Porque é que os humanos têm dificuldade com números grandes

O nosso cérebro está programado para pensar de forma linear e processar números pequenos com facilidade. No entanto, quando se trata de números grandes, tudo começa a parecer confuso. Limitações evolutivas significam que fomos desenvolvidos para contar maçãs, não estrelas. Para além de algumas dezenas, os números começam a parecer "muitos" em vez de quantidades específicas.

Por exemplo, considere o número de chaves privadas possíveis em Bitcoin. Com 256 bits usados para encriptação, isto traduz-se em aproximadamente $$2^{256}$$ chaves únicas. Embora este número seja impressionante, a maioria das pessoas tem dificuldade em compreender a sua enormidade. Para colocar em perspectiva: - Existem mais átomos no universo observável do que grãos de areia em todas as praias da Terra.

Além disso, o nosso cérebro frequentemente luta para entender fenómenos exponenciais, que desempenham um papel crucial no sucesso de Bitcoin. O crescimento da população mundial ou o número de hashes efectuados por segundo pelos mineradores de Bitcoin podem parecer incompreensíveis devido à sua natureza rápida.

Finalmente, a falta de pontos de referência do dia a dia dificulta a compreensão de conceitos complexos como chaves privadas e hashrate. Por exemplo, dizer "100 biliões" pode significar algo para si, mas decompor isso em números mais pequenos e manejáveis é uma história completamente diferente.

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A História do Tabuleiro de Xadrez e o Grão de Arroz - uma pequena explicação didáctica sobre exponenciais.

Certa vez, um matemático indiano inventou o jogo de xadrez e apresentou-o ao rei local (frequentemente chamado de Maharaja). O rei ficou tão impressionado com o jogo que ofereceu recompensar o matemático com qualquer coisa que ele desejasse.

O matemático humildemente pediu um único grão de arroz para ser colocado na primeira casa do tabuleiro de xadrez, e que a quantidade de arroz fosse duplicada em cada casa seguinte. O rei, pensando que este era um pedido modesto, concordou imediatamente.

O processo começou: - 1 grão na primeira casa,
- 2 grãos na segunda,
- 4 grãos na terceira,
- 8 grãos na quarta, e assim por diante.

Mas, à medida que avançavam, os números começaram a crescer rapidamente. Na 20.ª casa, já eram necessários mais de 1 milhão de grãos de arroz. Na 40.ª casa, o total ultrapassava 1 bilião de grãos. Na 64.ª e última casa, o total era um espantoso 18 quintiliões de grãos de arroz ($$2^{64} - 1$$).

Esta quantidade era tão vasta que exigiria mais arroz do que poderia ser cultivado na Terra naquela época. O rei, ao perceber que subestimara o pedido do matemático, foi forçado a admitir derrota ou, em algumas versões da história, puniu o matemático pela sua astúcia.

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Bitcoin e Números Grandes: A Tecnologia Incompreendida

A complexidade de Bitcoin reside na sua dependência de criptografia e números imensos. Vamos explorar três áreas chave onde estes conceitos podem criar atrito.

A Segurança Incompreensível das Chaves Privadas

A segurança de Bitcoin assenta na escala absoluta do seu espaço de chaves privadas. Existem $$2^{256}$$ chaves possíveis — um número tão grande que tentar adivinhar uma chave não é apenas improvável, é praticamente impossível. É como se lhe pedisse para adivinhar o número em que estou a pensar entre 1 e 115792089237316195423570985008687907853269984665640564039457584007913129639936!

Para colocar isto em perspectiva: - Imagine que existem mais estrelas no universo observável do que grãos de areia nas praias da Terra. Mesmo que combinasse todos os grãos de areia e estrelas, o número resultante ainda seria inferior a ```$$2^{256}$$```.

Esta escala impressionante garante a robustez da segurança criptográfica de Bitcoin, mas pode parecer esmagadora para os recém-chegados.

O Hashrate de 1 Zettahash/s

Recentemente, a mineração de Bitcoin ultrapassou a marca de 1 zettahash por segundo ($$10^{21}$$ hashes por segundo). Esta medida de poder computacional destaca a escala imensa da segurança da rede.

Para ilustrar: - Imagine tentar adivinhar um número biliões de vezes por segundo, por pessoa, para todos os humanos na Terra. Mesmo com todo este esforço combinado, mal arranharíamos a superfície do actual hashrate de Bitcoin.

Este poder computacional imenso é o que garante que, uma vez adicionada uma transacção à timechain (ou blockchain se preferir) de Bitcoin, seja praticamente impossível alterá-la.

A Barreira da Criptografia

A criptografia de curva elíptica, ECC, um elemento chave em Bitcoin, utiliza matemática avançada que pode parecer abstracta para não especialistas. Baseia-se em "funções unidireccionais," onde gerar uma chave pública a partir de uma chave privada é fácil, mas reverter o processo é quase impossível.

O recente medo da computação quântica (apenas FUD), mostra bem esta segurança na matemática. O Willow, o computador da quântico da Google, com 105 qubits, resolveu um problema de benchmark em 5 minutos, que levaria a um super computador 10 septiliões de anos a resolver (mais tempo que a idade do universo, 13.8 mil milhões de anos).

Para conseguir encontrar a chave privada a partir de uma chave publica, seriam necessários cerca de 124000 Willows para o fazer em 1 dia, ou cerca de 340 para o fazer em 1 ano. E mesmo assim, apenas os endereços mais antigos, P2PK (Pay to Public Key) estariam vulneráveis, os endereços P2PKH (Pay to Public Key Hash) tem mais um nível de segurança, o hash.

O Willow teria que ter milhões ou milhares de milhões de qubits para conseguir descobrir uma chave privada a partir da chave publica. Não temos ainda tecnologia para isso...

Para simplificar: - Pense nisso como uma fechadura que só pode ser aberta com uma chave única. Uma vez trancada, o processo é irreversível sem essa chave, proporcionando uma segurança incomparável.

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O Obstáculo Psicológico: Viés de Unidade

Além dos aspectos técnicos, a psicologia desempenha um papel importante na forma como as pessoas percebem o valor, ou melhor o preço, de bitcoin. O viés da unidade — a tendência de preferir números inteiros — pode criar uma barreira emocional.

O Problema do "Preço Alto" de bitcoin

Ver o preço de bitcoin em dezenas (centenas?) de milhares de euros pode dissuadir potenciais investidores, que podem sentir que é demasiado caro ou inacessível. Esta percepção persiste, embora bitcoin possa ser dividido em unidades mais pequenas.

Satoshis como Solução

A menor unidade de bitcoin, o satoshi (1/100.000.000 BTC), oferece uma solução para este viés. Apresentar bitcoin em termos de satoshis permite pontos de preço mais compreensíveis. Por exemplo: - "1.000 sats custam €1,00" soa muito mais acessível do que "€100.000 por bitcoin."

O uso de satoshis reformula o valor de bitcoin, facilitando a sua compreensão e acessibilidade. E sim, pode comprar €1,00 de bitcoin, ou até mesmo menos de €0,01!

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Conclusão

A dificuldade com números grandes não é única de Bitcoin, mas a sua natureza digital e abstracta amplifica o desafio. Desde a escala incompreensível das chaves privadas até à enorme hashrate e ao obstáculo psicológico do viés de unidade, estas barreiras podem dificultar a compreensão e adopção.

No entanto, ao: 1. Simplificar conceitos criptográficos,
2. Usar analogias compreensíveis, e
3. Promover os satoshis como unidade padrão,

podemos tornar Bitcoin mais acessível para a pessoa comum. Assim como a sociedade aprendeu a abraçar a electricidade sem precisar entender os electrões, também podemos abraçar Bitcoin sem compreender completamente cada número por trás dele.

bitcoin #quantum

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Photo by Greg Rakozy on Unsplash

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalan tekst na linkedin.com

12.04.2024 / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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60/40 portfolio je dugo važio za idealan izbor nekome ko ima umerenu sklonost ka riziku, a nema vremena da prati berzu. Dakle, ubaciš 60% u akcije, 40% u obveznice i pustiš vreme da radi svoje.

Malo sam se igrao sa brojkama i računao šta bi bilo da je neko u taj portfolio ubacio malo Bitkoina. Period koji je obrađen je januar 2014 - januar 2024. Ovde napominjem da nikako nisam radio "cherry picking", to jest nisam birao period u kome se Bitkoin pokazao u najboljem mogućem svetlu. Maltene sam uradio suprotno. Da sam izabrao bilo koji januar pre 2014-te, prinosi na BTC bi bili neuporedivo veći. Čak i da sam izabrao januar 2015-te ili 2016-te, takođe bi prinosi bili veći jer je cena tada bila niža nego u januaru 2014-te. Izbor datuma je bio posledica želje da zaokružim jednu celu deceniju, period nakon kojeg su strpljivi investitori nagrađeni time što ne plaćaju porez na kapitalnu dobit.

Obradio sam 3 realna scenarija:

1. Klasičan 60/40 portfolio. Na uloženih $10.000 u januaru 2014. godine, 10 godina kasnije bismo imali tačno $17.434. Prosečan godišnji prinos je 5,72%.
2. 99% uloženo u 60/40 portfolio, 1% uloženo u Bitkoin. Na uloženih $10.000, imali bismo $22.505 ili 8,45% godišnje. Samo 1% u BTC, a skoro 3% veći godišnji prinos. (narandžasta linija)
3. 90% uloženo u 60/40 portfolio, 10% uloženo u Bitkoin. Sad već postaje zabavno... od $10.000 do $68.145, što bi bilo 21,16% godišnje - jače od proseka Vorena Bafeta. (zelena linija)

Uzeo sam u obzir i rizike i zamislio da je u ovom periodu cena Bitkoina polako padala i na kraju pala na 0. Dakle naredna 2 scenarija su hipotetička.

1. 99% uloženo u 60/40 portfolio, 1% uloženo u Bitkoin, Bitkoin propao. Investirano $10.000, dobijeno $17.259 ili 5.61% godišnje. Minimalni gubitak u odnosu na čist 60/40 portfolio iz prvog scenarija. Zbog toga se na grafiku vide 4 linije iako ih ima 5, toliko je mala razlika.
2. 90% uloženo u 60/40 portfolio, 10% uloženo u Bitkoin, Bitkoin propao. Investirano $10.000, dobijeno $15.690 ili 4.61% godišnje. To je ona donja. ljubičasta linija na grafikonu. Nije neki prinos, ali nije ni katastrofa.

Mogao sam da idem i sa preko 10%, naravno završili bismo na preko $100.000. Međutim, hteo sam da budem konzervativan i stvari gledam iz ugla investitora koji ipak ima nešto manji apetit ka riziku i nedovljno poznaje Bitkoin. Mogao sam i da uzmem drugačiji period. Na primer, za jan 2012 - jan 2022 bi narandžasta linija završila na preko milion dolara, a zelena na preko 10 miliona. Da, nije greška u računici... zaista biste za 10 godina, počev od januara 2012-te imali preko milion dolara da ste uložili ukupno $10.000, 99% u akcije i obveznice, a 1% u Bitkoin. Sa 90% u akcijama i obveznicama i 10% u Bitkoinu, već ste na 8 cifara.

Istorijske performanse nisu garancija budućih prinosa. Investiranje u Bitkoin je rizično. Ignorisanje Bitkoina je rizično. Svako bira svoj rizik. Ovo nije investicioni savet, ovo je prijateljski savet.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalan tekst na ecd.rs

05.04.2022. / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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Većinu ljudi ka Bitkoinu privuče mogućnost brze zarade. Gledajući istorijsko kretanje cene, deluje im da je bilo izuzetno lako obogatiti se uz odgovarajući tajming kupovine i prodaje. Naravno, u praksi stvari umeju dosta drugačije da izgledaju. Jednom kada se uđe, najjači poriv da se kupuje bude baš kad je cena najviša i euforija na vrhuncu, dok pad cene uglavnom uzrokuje paničnu prodaju baš u najgorem trenutku. Novajlije se tu retko odmah snađu.

Neki posle gubitaka i razočarenja kompletno napuste ceo kripto ekosistem misleći da je problem u tržištu, a ne u njihovoj naivnosti i brzopletosti. Drugi ostanu, pa se ili izvešte u trgovanju ili počnu da rudare ili se zaljube u tehnologiju ili nauče da budu strpljivi ili nađi neki svoj put u ovoj industriji. Ipak, mnogima, neretko i pravim veteranima koji su već godinama tu, prečesto promaknu najbitnije karakteristike Bitkoina.

Zamrzavanje bankovnih računa

Nažalost, ponekad su potrebne teške situacije da bi se prave vrednosti nečega shvatile. Ne kaže se uzalud: „Na muci se poznaju junaci“. U poslednjih mesec-dva svedoci smo događaja za koje smo mislili, ili smo se barem nadali da nisu mogući. Najpre protesti u Kanadi i reakcija „demokratske“ vlasti koja je bila tako oštra, da je se ni najveći diktatori ne bi postideli. Zatim i nešto mnogo gore, a to je rat u Ukrajini.

Ne ulazeći u to ko je za šta kriv, jer dovoljno se njih tom tematikom bavi, činjenica da je su neki Kanađani, Rusi i Ukrajinci praktično preko noći postali odsečeni od finansijskog sistema od kojeg u nekoj meri zavise. U Kanadi je vlada nepodobnima zamrzavala bankovne račune, Rusima su uglavnom spolja „isekli“ mnoge novčane tokove na način da, kao što to obično i biva, najviše trpe građani koji ništa nikome nisu skrivili, a šta tek reći za Ukrajince koji su, bez dileme, najgore prošli.

Prava vrednost Bitkoina

Neki često kažu da Bitkoin nema upotrebnu vrednost i da služi samo za špekulacije. Međutim, u situaciji kada je račun u banci zamrznut zbog učešća u protestima, nije loše imati neku vrednost koju je nemoguće zamrznuti, a vrlo lako se može unovčiti po potrebi. Kada više ne rade PayPal, VISA, MasterCard, SWIFT… a imate poslovnog partnera koji treba nešto da vam uplati ili rođaka koji treba da vam pošalje novac, dosta je koristan novac koji niko ne može da zaustavi i za čije korišćenje ničija dozvola nije potrebna Na kraju, ako padaju bombe i treba da bežite glavom bez obzira, imati imovinu koja je u digitalnom obliku i koja ide svuda sa vama, a ne mora da se nosi, je zlata vredno. Ili možda bolje reći „digitalnog zlata (kako neki zovu Bitkoin) vredno“.

Najbitnije karakteristika Bitkoina mnogima promiču, jer srećom mnogi nisu bili u situaciji da im te njegove karakteristike budu bitne. Te karakteristike su neotuđivost, dostupnost i otpornost na sve vrste cenzure.

Nikada u istoriji nismo imali mogućnost da novac ili neku drugu vrednost sa par klikova prenesemo na drugi kraj sveta, a da ne moramo nikoga da pitamo za dozvolu da to uradimo. I dok god standardni kanali rade, teško razumemo pravu vrednost koju ta mogućnost pruža.

„Problem je što je cena mnogo volatilna, pa je zato neupotrebljiv za bilo šta ozbiljno“, često se može čuti. Da, problem je dok ne dođete u situaciju da možete sa sobom poneti nešto ili ništa. Problem je dok niste suočeni sa izborom da novac pošaljete tako ili nikako. Onda par procenata promene cene na dnevnom nivou ne znači ništa jer rešavate problem koji nikako drugačije ne možete rešiti. I postaje nebitno da li ste ga kupili u savršenom trenutku ili ste možda mogli i bolje da prođete.

@ 46025249:0a7e0424

Hello world

@ e83b66a8:b0526c2b

To use American vernacular, ya’ll gonna hate on me, but back when Ledger announced their Stax, I ordered one for delivery in 3 months. Two years later, about 3 months ago, I finally received it.

Because of their doxxing and seed grab policies I would no longer consider using it for any serious holdings, but my wife is starting to acquire her own stack of Bitcoin and so believing it was the iPOD of Bitcoin wallets, I gave it to her to use as her hardware wallet.

Because she was new to self custody I had already setup the ledger and I sat with her while she tried to use it.

She used her phone and the Ledger app to attempt to move Bitcoin from Revolut to the wallet.

Nothing worked, nothing.

The Ledger Stax needed updating, but would turn off in the middle of updating so would never finish, we gave up trying to do that.

We then tried to obtain an address to receive funds to, it offer 4 types of Bitcoin wallets Legacy, Segwit, Native Segwit and Taproot. But it didn’t explain them at all, meaning you had no idea which was which.

Then when it offered to verify the address the Stax got into a loop, which required me to do a physical reboot (long press power button).

At last we managed to verify an address, but this wasn’t displayed on the Stax as a QR code, an unbelievably obvious reason for having a epaper screen, instead having to use the iPhone to copy and paste the address between the Ledger Live app and Revolut.

When we did this, Revolut said there was an error with the address and to try again later.

I know you’re all going to mock me for attempting to use the Stax, but I had assumed up until yesterday that it at least had a good UI.

Boy, was I wrong

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 제멋대로 방치된 장애인활동지원사 보수교육
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10927
• 2024.12.31 21:55

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활동지원기관으로부터 보수교육을 받았다. 매년 빠지지 않던 부정수급 예방 교육이 포함되어 있었다. 모 장애인자립생활센터의 대리(코디네이터, 전담인력)를 강사로 초청하여 부정수급 예방 교육을 했다.

교육 내용 중 두 부분 잘못된 내용이었다. 첫째, 이용자 두 사람에게 각각 연속으로 차례대로 서비스할 때는 30분 시간을 두고 결제하라고 교육했다. 둘째, 장애인이 공공일자리에 참여하는 경우 근로지원인을 일단 신청하고 신청이 받아들여지지 않으면 활동지원을 쓸 수 있다고 했다.

보건복지부에서는 부정수급을 막기 위해서 점검해야 할 사례들을 지침에서 나열하고 있는데, "한 수급자에게 급여 종료 후 다른 수급자에게 가는 이동시간을 고려하지 않고 이루어진 결제"를 연속결제라 명명하고 "사유의 정당성 확인"하라고 되어 있다. 그런데 왜 30분 시간을 두고 결제하라는 교육을 할까?

일선의 공무원들은 활동지원사가 한 이용자에게 서비스를 종료하고 30분 안에 다른 이용자에게 서비스를 시작하면, 지침대로 사유의 정당성을 확인하기 위해 이를 소명할 것을 요구한다. 30분이 넘어가면 소명을 요구하지 않는다. 중요한 것은 이 소명이 전담인력 입장에서는 업무가 된다는 점이다. 교육 강사가 예를 든 사례는 요양보호사를 겸직하는 활동지원사가 노인장기요양서비스를 제공 후 곧바로 활동지원을 제공한 사례였는데, 노인장기요양기관은 활동지원기관에 소명자료를 잘 제공해 주지 않으므로 30분의 간격을 두어야 한다고 교육했다. 이런 경우 자신은 30분의 간격을 두고 결제를 하게 하고는 장애인이용자에게 양해를 구해 조금 더 결제할 수 있도록 부탁한다고 했다.

전담인력 입장에서야 30분 간격을 두고 근무기록을 남기고 소명절차를 밟지 않는 것이 편할 수 있다. 하지만 여기서 여러 가지 문제가 발생한다. 30분의 시간이 지나기를 기다리면서 활동지원사가 서비스를 제공하다가 장애인이용자를 다치게 하거나, 재산상 손해를 입혀도 보험 처리를 하지 못할 수 있다. 해당 시간에 노동자가 일하다 다쳐도 보호받지 못할 수 있다. 그뿐 아니다. 전담인력이 이용자에게 양해를 구해 조금 더 결제할 수 있도록 한다는 말은 한마디로 부정수급을 권하는 격이다. 정말 제대로 된 교육 내용이 되려면 서비스하는 동안 정직하게 근무기록을 남기고, 정부가 소명을 요구할 수 있으니 소명할 수 있는 자료를 남길 수 있도록 교육하는 게 옳다.

생계지원의 경우도 마찬가지다. 장애인이 공공일자리사업에 참여한다는 것은 공공일자리를 통해 노동하고 급여를 받는다는 뜻이다. 이것은 최근에 논란이 된 활동지원 생계지원과 관련된 내용이다.

한국장애인고용공단은 장애인 스스로 업무를 충분히 진행할 수 있다고 판단하여 근로지원인 서비스 대상자로 여기지 않을 수도 있다. 그렇다면 당연히 공공일자리 업무는 장애인당사자 스스로가 수행해야 한다. 공단에서 장애인을 근로지원인 서비스 대상자로 보지 않는다고 해서, 활동지원사가 근로지원을 해도 된다는 의미는 아니다. 활동지원사는 공공일자리 사업에 참여하는 장애인을 지원함에 있어서도, 장애인의 생계를 지원하는 내용이 아닌 그 외의 활동지원서비스를 수행해야 한다.

자립생활센터 직원인 강사 입장에서는 공공일자리 장애인의 업무를 비장애인이 지원해 주면 빠르고 속 시원하며 행정 처리도 용이할 수 있다. 하지만 자신이 편하다고 그릇된 교육을 해서는 안 된다.

장애인활동지원사 보수교육은 "활동지원사 역량 강화와 급여 질 향상"을 위해 매년 실시한다. 하지만 그 중요도에 비해 사업장의 재량에만 내맡겨져 있다. 잘못된 교육의 피해는 온전히 잘못 교육받은 노동자와 장애인에게로 돌아간다. 강사의 수준과 교육의 내용에 대한 검증이 필요하다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10862
• 장애인활동지원사에게 생업지원을 하도록 하는 것이 해법일까?

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장애인활동지원사에게 생업지원을 하도록 하는 것이 해법일까?

- 2024년 국정감사 김예지 의원의 발언에 붙여

시각장애인 안마사가 안마원 운영에 활동지원사의 도움을 받다가, 공무원의 부정수급 환수 경고로 목숨을 버렸다고 한다. 현행 활동지원제도는 "수급자 또는 그 가족의 직장 등에서 생업을 지원하는 활동보조 행위"를 서비스로 요구하거나 제공해서는 안된다고 규정하고 있는데, 법 개정 이전에도 복지부의 지침으로 금하고 있는 내용이었다.

한 시각장애인 안마사의 죽음은 애도해야 할 일이지만, 그 과정에 대해 짚어야 할 부분은 있다. 활동지원제도 부정수급 환수가 장애인이용자를 향하는 것은 아주 드문 일이다. 활동지원기관은 기본적으로 서비스제공 과정에서 정당하게 서비스가 이루어지는지를 관리감독 할 책임이 있고, 관리감독 책임을 다하였다 하더라도 부정지급급여 징수는 "적법한 지급원인이 없음에도 잘못 지급된 금액의 사후적 반환이라는 성격도 가지고 있는 것"이기에 대부분의 징수는 활동지원기관을 대상으로 이루어진다. 행정적으로 부당지급급여 징수 조치는 기관에게 통보되고 활동지원기관은 활동지원사 노동자에게 임금을 반환하라고 요구하는 과정이 이루어진다.

장애인이용자가 정당한 서비스 외 사례로 환수되는 경우는 어떤 경우일까? 활동지원기관이 관리감독을 제대로 했고, 부당한 서비스요구임을 장애인이용자에게 고지했으며, 활동지원사도 부당한 서비스요구임을 통지해도, 어쩔 수 없이 부당한 서비스가 이루어져야 할 것이다. 그리고 이를 입증할 자료가 있어야 할 것이다. 이럴 수 있는 가능성은 얼마나 될까? 장애인이 부정수급 환수대상이 되는 일은 정말 낙타가 바늘을 통과하는 일 만큼이나 어려운 일이다.

이 엄연한 구조적 사실 앞에서 한 안마사의 자결은 두 가지 경우 중에 하나다. 공무원이 권한을 남용해 잘못된 고지를 했거나, 단순 주의 고지를 당사자가 오해를 했거나이다. 이 사실에 대한 확인이 필요하다.

하지만 김예지 의원은 시각장애인의 자결을 생업지원을 제한하는 활동지원제도의 문제로 본다. 의원은 국정감사에서 보건복지부 장관에게 1인 중증장애인을 위한 업무지원인 제도가 아직 시범사업 단계에 불과하므로 소규모 5인 미만 중증장애인 사업주에 한해 기존 활동지원제도를 생업에 활용할 수 있도록 주문했다. 하지만 활동지원제도에서 장애인의 생업을 지원하지 못하게 하는 이유가 있다. 이에 수반되는 쟁점과 문제가 많다.

먼저 장애인 사업주가 어떤 사업을 할지 정해져 있지가 않다. 안그래도 업무범위가 명확하지 않은 활동지원사더러 장애인의 사업에 따라 모든 일을 하라는 말 밖에 안된다. 활동지원사는 시키는 일은 무엇이든 하고 아무일이나 시켜도 된다는 의원의 인식이 반영된 발화라고 밖에 평가할 수 밖에 없다. 정말로 의원의 주문대로 제도가 바뀐다면 활동지원사는 장애인 지원에 장애인사업주의 종업원으로서 업무를 가중해 수행해야한다. 장애인이 사업자로서 마땅히 인력를 고용해 써야할 부분에도 활동지원사가 투입될 것이다.

현재의 근로지원인 제도도 장애인의 노동권 보장이 아니라, 장애인을 비장애인을 부려쓰기 위한 도구로 전락시키는 현상이 곳곳에서 드러난다. 장애인은 꿔다놓은 보릿자루고 비장애인 지원인력이 모든 일을 다 한다. 이것은 지원이 아니라 장애인을 지우고 대체하는 일이다. 장애인은 임금을 받아 좋지만 이런식의 제도운영은 차라리 소득보장으로 바뀌어야 한다. 민간의 사장에게 공적 자금을 들여 인력을 투입할 이유가 없다.

내가 아는 한 카페는 장애인을 고용하고도 출근을 시키지 않는다. 출근을 시켜도 일을 시키지 않는다. 혹은 장애때문에 출근을 시켜도 일을 시킬수가 없다. 근로지원인이 모든 일을 다 한다. 근로지원인은 실질적으로 주된 카페업무를 모두 하고 있지만 이에 대한 문제제기는 하기 힘들다. 문제제기를 하는 순간 일자리를 잃을 위험에 있기 때문이다. 사업주는 장애인고용을 통한 지원을 받고 근로지원인을 통해 노동력을 제공받아 좋은 일이지만, 그곳에 장애인의 자리는 없다.

장애인이 사업주인 사업장이라고 다를까. 사업주는 심하게는 아무것도 하지 않아도 된다. 장애인의 사업은 사실상 지원인력의 노동력을 통해 이루어질 것이다. 많은 수익이 나든 적은 수익이 나든 그 수익은 지원인력의 노동력에서 기인할 것이다. 잘 착취당할 지원인력을 구하는 것으로 누군가의 소득이 변동된다면 이는 국가정책적으로 올바른 지원인지 묻지 않을 수 없다.

장애인의 노동권 보장을 위해 누군가 지원하는 인력을 붙이면 끝일까? 나는 이 방식에 대한 근본적인 고민이 있어야 한다고 본다. 기존 제도도 정말 장애인의 자리를 고민하는 방식으로 제도가 활용되고 있지 않다. 과거에는 장애인 의무고용을 준수하면서 업무를 주지 않는 차별행위가 투쟁의 대상이었지만, 이제 장애인 인권을 위한다는 단체들이 일자리사업을 하다보니 정작 문제가 내부화 되어 만연해 있다.

우리사회는 장애인에게 무슨 문제만 생기면 활동지원제도로 해결하려는 경향이 강한데 이는 아주 문제다. 국회의원까지 아무 일이나 시키면 된다 생각하는 직업에 젊은이들이 들어오지 않는 것은 어쩌면 당연한 일이다. 최근에는 활동지원인력의 전문성을 문제삼는 담론이 팽배하다. 이런 인식으로는 전문성을 운운할수도 기대할수도 없다. 나는 김예지 의원의 발언에서 활동지원제도의 암담한 미래를 본다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10814
• 탈시설 장애인의 금전관리와 활동지원
• 2024.08.22 11:30

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활동지원사가 도둑으로 몰리는 몇 사례

2024년 3월 활동지원사 김씨는 노조에 상담을 요청했다. 김씨는 N지원주택에서 장애인이용자 이씨에게 서비스를 제공 중인데, 자립생활 지원주택 팀장이 일방적으로 서비스 중단을 요구했고, 장애인이용자에게는 이와 관련된 이야기를 언급조차 하지 말라고 신신당부했다. 팀장은 활동지원사가 속한 활동지원 기관에도 서비스 중단을 통보했다. 활동지원사는 이 상황을 납득할 수 없어 직접 장애인이용자에게 물었다. 그런데 정작 장애인이용자는 계속 서비스를 해주길 바란다고 했다. 노동조합은 N지원주택 팀장에게 면담을 요청했다.

N지원주택 팀장은 이씨가 김씨로부터 활동지원을 받는 날이면 주문음식을 너무 많이 시켜먹는다는 점을 문제 삼았다. 주택 팀장은 장애인이용자가 배달음식을 자주 시켜먹는 일이 활동지원사의 잘못이라고 보았다. 활동지원사는 순전히 이용자가 원해서 배달음식을 시켜 준 것이라고 항변했다. 심지어 이용자가 자기 손으로 스마트폰을 작동해 주문음식을 시켜먹었다는 것이다. 간혹 함께 음식을 먹는 경우가 있어 서로 돌아가면서 주문하기도 하고, 일부 금액은 활동지원사가 부담했다고 한다. 면담을 통해 알게 된 사실은 해당 이용자가 발달장애나 지적장애가 있는 것도 아니고, 시설에서 나온 지 얼마 되지 않았지만, 판단능력에 특별히 문제가 있는 것도 아니었다. 김씨의 잘못이 아니라는 점이 밝혀졌지만, 팀장이 이미 장애인 이씨에게 김씨를 그만두게 하자고 한 상태였고 김씨는 다시 일터로 돌아갈 수 없었다.

2019년 활동지원사 박씨는 도둑으로 몰려 일을 그만두게 된 사례였다. 장애인이용자 최씨는 탈시설을 한 지 얼마 되지 않았다. 자립생활지원금 천만원 가량 최씨의 통장으로 입금되었다. 최씨는 글을 몰랐다. 하지만 판단 능력에 문제가 없었고 최씨는 스스로 통장에 있던 돈을 소비했다. 그런데 최씨의 지출은 다소 과했고 이에 주택 측은 박씨에게 최씨가 왜 그렇게 돈을 많이 썼냐고 물었다. 돈은 최씨가 썼으니, 돈에 대한 기록을 박씨가 가지고 있을 리도 없었다. 24시간을 함께 있는 것도 아니었다. 주택 측의 계속된 추궁에 활동지원사 박씨는 일을 계속했다가 누명을 쓸 것 같아 그만뒀다. 최씨는 이후 다른 활동지원사에게 서비스를 받고 있다. 최씨는 박씨에게 수년이 지난 현재까지도 수시로 연락한다. 박씨는 최씨에게 필요한 노동을 간혹 제공한다.

2017년 김씨를 처음 본 것은 다른 체험홈에서였다. 김씨의 이용자 정씨는 탈시설해 체험홈에 살았다. 언제부턴가 연애도 시작하면서 연애에 따른 소비도 많아졌다. 체험홈에서 제공하는 금전관리 교육프로그램에 참여하는 정씨는 체험홈으로부터 지출에 대한 지적을 받았다. 정씨가 자신의 체크카드로 돈을 쓰면 통장에 기록이 남아 체험홈에 지출 사실이 드러났고, 이는 계속된 지적으로 이어졌다. 처음 맛보는 돈 쓰는 맛을 포기할 수 없었던 정씨는 자신의 지출을 은폐하기 위해 활동지원사 김씨에게 돈을 빌려 달라고 했다. 당시 초보 활동지원사였던 김씨는 별 의심 없이 돈을 빌려줬다. 그리고 약속된 어느 날 정씨로부터 돈을 다시 돌려받았다. 그러자 난리가 났다. 김씨가 정씨의 돈을 빼갔다고 소문이 돌기 시작했다. 자신의 지출을 숨기고 싶었던 정씨는 모르겠다고만 했다. 김씨는 정씨로부터 빌려준 돈을 받은 것이라고 말했지만 체험홈 측은 김씨를 쉽게 믿어주지 않았다. 경찰에 신고하니 마니 하는 이야기를 듣고, 김씨는 일을 그만뒀다. 어찌 된 일인지 경찰서에서 연락이 오지는 않았다.

이어지는 고민들

활동지원사의 노동조건이 안정적이라면 사실 도둑으로 의심받는 일 정도는 큰 일이 아닐 수도 있다. 감사나 조사를 받고 진상이 규명되면 될 일이다. 하지만 활동지원사는 노동자들이 괴로워하는 감사나 징계위 절차를 밟는 기회조차 주어지지 않는 경우가 많다. 이용자의 서비스 제공 거부만으로 소득이 끊기고, 활동지원기관들은 일거리를 제공할 의무를 부담하지 않는 것이 용인되는 현실에서 우리의 일상적 노동조건은 '무기한 무급 정직'이 기본값이다. 우리는 소문만으로도 생존권을 위협받는다. 하지 동시에 장애인이 처한 현실에 대해 동시에 고민하게 되기도 한다.

접촉하는 순간 돌봄권력이 생길 가능성 배제하지 말아야

장애인을 위한다는 각종 지원이, 장애인의 자기결정권을 제약하는 권력이 되기도 한다. 때로는 원하지 않는 지원이 강요될 수도 있고, 너무 필수적인 지원이라 거절이 힘들 수도 있다. 서비스 제공자가 자신의 의사를 관철하거나 강요하기도 한다. 혹자는 이것을 '돌봄권력'이라고 명명한다. 아마도 주택 측에서 활동지원사에게 휘둘려 재산을 탕진하는 장애인을 상상하는 일이 잦은 것 같다. 마찬가지로 활동지원사가 '돌봄권력'을 장애인에게 행사한다는 편견을 갖고 있기 때문일 것이다.

하지만 '돌봄권력'을 갖는 존재는 활동지원사로 한정되지 않는다. 사회복지사, 탈시설운동가, 동료상담가, 교육자, 중증장애인 일자리 사업가 등 다양한 존재일 수 있다. 장애인 입장에서는 주거지원 서비스에 대한 여러 선택지가 눈에 보이지 않는 상황에서 현재 거주하는 지원주택을 벗어나는 일도 쉽지 않을 터이다.

앞서 살펴본 사례는 자립생활지원주택이 장애인의 지출 욕구를 억압한 상태에서 장애인의 자기결정권을 존중해주는 활동지원사와 함께 있을 때 그 욕구가 분출된 사례로 볼 수 있다. 돈을 마음껏 쓰지 못하게 하는 주택측이 이 돈을 누가 어떻게 어디서 썼냐고 물으면 장애인은 쉽게 답하지 못하는 건 당연하다.

당사자가 경험하는 진정한 실패가능성

장애인의 지출을 통제하게 되는 주택의 입장도 이해 못 할 바는 아니다. 주택은 임시로 있는 곳이고 계속 거주할 수는 없다. 지원주택을 나가 진짜 자립생활을 시작하려면 거주자가 얼마간 자금이 있어야 한다. 장애인은 지출관리에서 실패하면 다시 시설로 돌아가야 할지도 모른다. 자신들이 관리하는 주택에서 장애인에 대한 갈취가 있다면 그것은 그것대로 오명이다. 하지만 장애인이 주체적으로 탕진할 가능성을 배제해서는 안 된다. 시설에서는 차단됐을 각종 상품광고는 이 물건을 소비하라 꼬드긴다. 비장애인도 일상적으로 지출 충동과 싸운다. 지름신 밈이 괜히 나온 게 아니다. 이러한 상황에서 장애인에게 재정건전성을 강요하는 일 또한 차별적 인식이다.

나는 이 점에서 장애인의 진정한 실패가능성에 대해 논의해야 할 때라고 생각한다. 자기결정권을 방어하는 의미에서 장애인의 실패할 권리를 주장하기만 할 것이 아니라, 어떤 결정이 어떤 과정을 통해 장애인 당사자에게 실패가 될 수 있는지 물어야 한다. 누군가가 대신해 주고 누군가가 대신 실패하기만 한다면 장애인은 실패의 경험조차 차단당하는 것과 다를 바 없다. 장애인 당사자 자신이 지출을 결정했음에도 그 책임이 활동지원사에게 돌아간다면 장애인당사자는 자신이 내린 결정의 결과와 자신이 겪을 경험의 기회를 잃는다. 보호의 이름으로 장애인이 겪을 실패의 경험을 차단하는 것은 아닌지 자문해 봐야한다.

재기 가능한 실패를 위해

여기서 또 중요한 지점은 장애인이 실패를 겪을 때 그것의 정도, 즉 재기 가능 여부일 것이다. 자립생활지원금을 온전히 탕진하고 시설로 돌아가는 것은 단순한 실패가 아니다. 장애인의 탕진 가능성을 상상하기엔 그 결과에 따르는 위험이 너무 큰 것이 문제일 수 있다. 주택측 입장에서는 위험이 크니 위험 요소를 차단하기 위해 더욱 격렬히 반응한다. 장애인의 실패가 장애인 당사자에게 교훈이자 경험이 되기 위해서는 다시 시도할 기회도 주어져야 한다.

비장애인은 사회와 접촉하면서도 법적 보호를 받으며 성장하는 미성년의 시기를 거친다. 미성년 시기의 재산은 용돈으로 한정된다. 용돈의 운용에 실패가 있어도 의식주를 비롯한 생존에 제약은 없다. 용돈을 다 쓰면 용돈을 쓸 수 없다는 제약에 용돈을 아껴 쓰는 법을 배운다. 그런데 시설에서 금방 나온 장애인에게 이런 종류의 기회나 경험은 차단되어 왔으며, 시설만 나온다고 해서 다양한 경험의 기회가 새로이 제공되지 않는다. 장애인에게 지원되는 자립생활지원 금액은 실패를 되돌리기에는 너무 큰 금액이고 그 대가는 크다. 자기결정권 및 결정에 따른 책임능력을 둘러싼 논의에서 외부의 개입에 대한 방어뿐 아니라, 실패를 통한 자립능력을 어떻게 기를 것인지에 구체적 논의가 필요하다.

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• 혁명적 운동의 물적 토대가 착취로 마련된다면
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10743
• 2024.05.20 14:14

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활동지원사 노동자의 권리다툼 자체를 막으려는 조직적 활동

A센터에는 장애인활동지원사와 관련된 5개의 재판이 걸려 있었다. 1개 재판은 확정되었고 4개의 재판은 아직도 진행 중이다.[^1] 취업규칙개정 무효 확인 소송과 퇴직자 1인, 재직자 3인의 체불임금과 관련한 민·형사 소송이다. 체불임금을 청구하는 민사소송은 대한법률구조공단의 지원을 받아 진행 중이다.[^2] 형사재판 두 건은 검사의 구형에 따라 법원이 판결을 내릴 사안이므로 노동자들은 피해자로서의 역할만 하면 된다. 그리고 취업규칙개정 무효 확인 소송은 공익인권법재단 공감 노동팀의 변호사들로부터 지원을 받았다.

A센터와의 취업규칙개정 무효소송이 시작되고 약 두 달 뒤, 사건을 대리한 변호사로부터 연락이 왔다. 연락한 이유는 장애인차별금지추진연대(장추련)와 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회(한자협)의 활동가들이 공감에 찾아와 공감이 전국활동지원사노동조합의 사건을 대리한 것에 문제를 제기했기 때문이다.

전달받은 바에 의하면 그들의 주장은 ▲공감에서 사건을 대리하는 바람에 변호사 찾기가 어렵다 ▲이 사건은 공익소송이 아니다 ▲노동조합이 의도적으로 A센터를 상대로 소송을 제기했다 ▲소송을 통해서 A센터가 망하면 장애인들에게 영향이 생긴다는 내용이었다.

공감이 사건을 계속 맡을 경우 항의성명을 내거나 기자회견을 하겠다는 말도 비공식적으로 흘렸다고 했다.[^3] 공감은 장애인권영역에서도 공익변론활동을 하므로 이 사안이 사무실 회의에서 재차 논의되어 검토하였으나, 공감은 사건을 계속 맡기로 결정하였고 장추련과 한자협의 항의방문 사안을 원고(우리)들에게 공식적으로 전달하기로 결정했다.

공감이 사건을 계속 맡기로 판단한 이유는 ▲A센터와의 갈등 이전에도 우리 노조는 관공서공휴일 관련한 문제제기를 지속해서 하고 있었기에 A센터만을 표적으로 하고 있다고 판단할 수 없으며 ▲A센터와의 대화를 시도하였으나 A센터가 응하지 않은 사실이 확인되었으며 ▲관공서공휴일 수당이 정부 예산에 반영된 사실이 정부 문건으로 확인되었으며 ▲A센터의 총회자료상 순수익 발생이 확인되었기 때문이었다.

나중에 변호사들을 만났을 때, 장추련과 한자협이 해당사건을 공익소송이 아니라고 판단한 이유에 대해서도 말해주더냐고 물어보았다. 변호사는 장애인활동지원제도는 장애인을 위한 제도라는 이유를 들었다고 전해주었다. 한편으로는 흔들리지 않는 변호사들과 공감이라는 단체가 고마웠지만, 장추련과 한자협 활동가들의 인식과 행태에는 실소를 금할 수 없었다. 산업의 목적에 의해 노동자의 권리가 부정된다면, 산업의 성장을 위해 다치고 죽고 해고당해도 할 말이 없는 것 아닌가. 산업의 발전을 위해 생산력이 떨어지는 장애인이 배제되는 것도 마찬가지다. 길에서 농성하는 노동자들의 투쟁에는 쉬이 연대하면서도, 정작 자신들과 가장 가까운 장애인활동지원사의 노동권을 위한 투쟁은 공익활동조차 아니었고, 공익변호사의 조력조차 받아서는 안 되는 일이었다.

한자협의 탄원서 조직 업무협조 요청

얼마 전, 노동자 3인의 체불임금에 대한 민사1심 선고를 앞둔 시기였다. 모든 변론은 종결되었고, 판사는 선고 시기를 추후에 알려주겠다고 했다. 며칠의 시간이 흐른 뒤, 법원은 3월 28일에 선고하겠다고 알려왔다. 선고일을 받고 기다리는데, 한 조합원이 한자협의 공문을 보내오며 "이거 선생님 사건 아니에요?"라고 물었다. 한자협은 3월 18일 회원단체 전체에 업무협조 요청 공문을 발송했다. 협조요청 공문 내용의 골자는 이러했다.

▲한자협 업무연락 2024년 10호 공문 부분

• 현재 A센터는 장애인활동지원사의 임금 지급과 관련한 민사소송의 피고 신분으로 판결을 앞두고 있다. 긴급하게 피고 A센터를 위해 탄원서를 조직하고자 한다.
• 이번 판결은 장애인활동지원사의 임금 산정 방식에 대한 법원의 해석에 해당되어 A센터뿐만 아니라 장애인활동지원기관 전반에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 중요한 판결이다.
• 장애인활동지원사업은 활동지원사가 근무 후 결제하는 바우처 정보에 따라 사업비가 지급되며 여기에는 활동지원사의 '연장수당' 등 법정수당이 모두 반영되어 지급되지 않는다. 장애인활동지원의 비현실적 시간당 단가, 운영비 미지원 등의 문제가 활동지원사와 중개기관의 열악한 조건을 고착시키고 있다는 점은 오래전부터 제기된 사안이다.
• 장애인자립생활센터를 비롯해 많은 활동지원기관이 활동지원사의 연장수당 책정을 월 174시간을 기준으로 하고 있으며, 소정근로일을 특정할 수 없는 활동지원사의 근무 형태를 고려하여 연차수당을 급여 안에 포함해 지급하고 있다. 이 같은 임금산정 및 급여 지급 방식은 근무조건이 유동적이고 소정근로일을 특정할 수 없는 장애인활동지원사의 근무 형태에 적절하다고 할 수 있다.
• 하지만 원고들은 임금산정에 있어 연장수당은 일 8시간을 기준으로, 연차수당은 연 단위 미사용 연차에 대한 총액으로 계산해야 함을 제기하고 있다. 이 경우 기관은 임금을 사업비에서 충당하기 위해서 일반적인 근로자와 같이 일 근무시간을 8시간으로 철저하게 관리할 수밖에 없다. 이 경우 활동지원제도의 취지가 무색할 정도로 이용자의 권리가 축소되고 기관의 운영 부담은 더욱 가중될 것이다.
• 활동지원제도의 특수성이 조명될 수 있도록, 무책임한 정부가 가려지지 않을 수 있도록 긴급하게 탄원서 요청한다.

A센터가 법원에 제출한 한자협의 자료들

A센터는 한자협의 자료를 공판 과정에서 이미 제출한 바가 있다. 사실 A센터가 법원에 한자협의 자료를 근거로 주장한 내용마저도 문제가 많았다. 한자협은 파스페이[^4]라는 임금 정산 전산시스템을 제공하면서 회원기관들로부터 이용료를 징수해 왔다. 그리고 이 이용료도 활동지원사업 수익금에서 지출되리라고 짐작할 수 있다. A센터도 이 시스템을 사용했는데, A센터는 공판 과정에서 한자협 회원기관들의 임금대장을 익명처리하여 제출하였다. A센터가 법원에서 주장한 바는, 한자협의 탄원협조 공문에서 드러난 논지와 동일했는데, 자신들의 임금체계는 활동지원기관들이 취하는 업계 일반적인 임금산정 방식이고 이는 활동지원사업의 '특성상' 불가피하다는 주장이었다. 하지만 법원에 제출된 자료만으로는 그것을 사업전체에 일반화할 수는 없다. 다른 장애인자립생활센터 연합단체의 경우나 복지관, 사회적협동조합 등 다른 여타 유형의 활동지원기관의 임금산정 방식에 대한 검토가 없다. 그리고 그러한 일반화가 있다 하더라도 법률위반이 만연한 것이 법률위반에 대한 정당화 근거가 될 수는 없다.

한자협 회원기관 중에서도 파스페이를 사용하지 않는 기관들이 종종 있다. 다시 말하지만, 한자협 회원기관 몇 군데의 임금대장 만으로는 "연장수당 책정을 월 174시간을 기준으로 하고 있으며, 소정근로일을 특정할 수 없는 활동지원사의 근무 형태를 고려하여 연차수당을 급여 안에 포함해 지급"하는 임금지급 방식을 모든 활동지원기관이 적용하고 있다고 말할 수는 없다. 엄밀하게 말하면 한자협이 주장하는 임금산정 방식은 '파스페이'를 사용하는 활동지원기관들에게만 확인되었다 할 수 있는 방식이다. 그리고 그 방식은 이미 A센터와 한자협이 법원에서 그리고 협조요청 공문으로 자인한 바대로, 연장수당 책정을 월근무시간 기준으로 책정하고 있다. 그리고 이러한 연장근무수당 산정 방식은 근로기준법 위반이다. A센터와 한자협의 주장 섞인 진술은 한자협 회원기관 중에서도 '파스페이'를 사용하는 활동지원기관은 근로기준법을 위반하고 있다는 고백과 다름없다. 근로기준법상 연장근무수당 산정방식은 1일 법정근무시간 8시간을 초과하는 시간에 해당하는 근무시간은 연장근무수당을 지급해야만 한다.

법원의 판결은 이미 많이 있었다

나는 탄원서 조직협조 공문이 목적하는 바가 법원에서 다투고 있는 쟁점에 관한 주장 및 입증은 아니라고 생각한다. 정말 법정에서 다투는 쟁점에 관한 사항이라면 A센터가 한자협을 통해 확보한 자료들로 주장에 대한 근거를 삼으면 될 일이다. 당사자인 A센터가 아니라 한자협이 적극적으로 탄원서를 조직했다. 나는 탄원서 조직의 진짜 목적은 법원을 설득하는 데에 있는 것이 아니라 다른 곳에 있다고 생각한다. 이 탄원서 조직은 한자협 내부 회원들을 조직하고 한자협의 입장을 전파하는 기능을 갖는다. 그리고 전파되는 내용은 활동지원사의 노동권을 부정하는 악의적이고 거짓된 내용으로 구성되어 있다.

탄원 조직 공문은 이번 판결이 임금 산정 방식에 대한 법원의 해석이므로 장애인활동지원기관 전반에 영향을 끼칠 수 있는 중요한 판결이라 서술한다. 이러한 서술은 해당 판결을 강조함으로써 이전의 판결들을 흐리게 만든다. 한자협이 말하는 것 같은 중요한 판결은 이번 판결만이 아니었다. 우리 노조는 활동지원사의 노동권 확보를 위해 투쟁해 왔고 그 나름의 역사가 있다. 우리 노조가 활동지원사업을 수탁받은 사회복지법인들과 노동자 권리를 두고 법정에서 싸운 것만 수차례다. 그리고 그 투쟁 속에서 노동청 검찰청 법원은 물론 대법원의 판단까지 받았다. 활동지원사의 임금과 관련한 법원 판결은 이번이 첫 번째 판결이 아니다. 그리고 법원은 활동지원사의 임금과 관련해서 근로기준법상의 기준을 지키라고 지속해서 판결해 왔다. 한자협은 이번 법정분쟁의 의미만을 확대함으로써 기존의 법원 판결에 대한 의미축소와 삭제를 노린다. 동시에 자신들의 임금산정 및 급여 지급 방식이 법률 위반이 아닌 적절한 방법이라는 억지주장을 반복하고 있다. 하지만 법원도 행정부도 한자협이 설정한 임금지급방식을 지시하거나 지지하는 입장을 표한 적도 없고, 문건을 생산한 적도 없다. 3월 28일의 선고도 원고들의 승소로 판결되었다. 법원은 체불임금 산정에 있어 A센터와 한자협의 주장 어느 하나도 인정하지 않았다. 그런데 A센터 소장은 다시 항소했다.

근로기준법과 75%

보건복지부에서는 매년 '장애인활동지원 사업안내'라는 책자를 발간한다. 현장에서는 보통 지침이라고 불린다. 지침에는 정부가 기관에 지급하는 '사업비 중 종사자 인건비 지출'을 규정하는 부분이 있다. "급여비용 중 75% 이상을 활동지원인력 임금으로 사용"할 것을 권장하는 내용이 그 부분이다. 본래는 "사용해야 함"이라고 명시하여 의무로 하던 것이 2019년 7월부터 '권장'으로 바뀌었다.

우리 노조는 다시 의무로 바꿔야 한다는 입장이다. 근로기준법의 기준만 충족하면 기관은 더욱 수익을 낼 수 있고, 이는 근로기준법의 각종 규정에서 제외되는 초단시간 노동자로 활동지원사들의 노동조건을 후퇴시킬 가능성이 아주 높기 때문이다. 영리를 추구하는 기관들의 태도가 활동지원제도의 공공성을 어떻게 망가뜨릴지는 예측하기 힘들다. 그런데 이 75% 기준에 대한 한자협의 입장은 노조와 다르다. 한자협은 권고기준마저 삭제하고자 한다. 한자협 2024년 총회자료에 따르면, 75% 권장사항마저 삭제할 것을 정부에 요구하고 있다.

▲한자협 2024년 총회자료 일부 발췌 및 편집 : 한자협이 보건복지부에 지침개정을 요구한 내용 중 일부

현재 활동지원기관들은 75% 이상 지급하라는 권장사항을 대부분 준수한다. 복지부 지침상으로는 '권고'수준이나, 기초자치단체와 국민연금공단의 평가에서 평가기준으로 작용하기 때문이다. 노동관계법령을 관할하는 노동부와는 별도로 행정상에서 지침이 작동하는 사례이다. 이 권장사항이 사라지게 되면 기초자치단체와 국민연금공단은 인건비 비율 관련 평가조차 하지 않게 된다.

A센터는 자신들이 근로기준법을 위반하지 않았다는 주장의 근거로 기초자치단체와 국민연금공단의 평가를 댄다. 평가상에 아무런 문제가 발견되지 않았다는 주장이다. 하지만 기초자치단체와 국민연금공단의 평가 및 감사는 활동지원기관에게 활동지원사의 실제 근무시간 자료를 요구하지 아니하고, 바우처 단가 중 75%만을 인건비로 썼는지 판단하기 때문에 이 평가만으로는 기관의 근로기준법 준수여부를 확인할 수는 없다.

A센터의 수익방법

A센터는 어떻게 수익을 내었을까? 이 질문이야말로 진정한 질문이다. A센터와 한자협의 주장은 짐짓 제도상의 구조적 피해를 호소하는 듯하지만, 정작 활동지원기관의 중간착취를 돕고 중간착취를 확대하는 기재로 작동한다. 임금의 세계는 선악의 세계가 아니라 수치의 세계이다. 충분과 부족의 일도양단으로 시시비비를 가릴 수는 없다.

A센터 2022년 정기총회 자료에서 회계감사는 단식부기로 1억 4천의 이익이 발생했고, "활동보조인 중개사업의 수익금액 증가에 기인"한다고 적시하고 있다. 이 수익에 대해서 A센터와 한자협은 설명하지 않는다. A센터의 수익에 75%와 연장근무수당의 비밀이 내포되어 있다. 우리나라 근로기준법 체계상 주휴수당과 연차수당 등은 법정근무시간인 1일 8시간을 기준으로 책정된다. 연장근무수당 미지급이 정당화되면 노동자는 일을 할수록 시간당 임금이 줄어드는 기이한 현상이 생긴다. 그리고 A센터는 이를 이용해 수익을 냈다. 이를 분석하기 위해서는 월 근무시간 구간별로 노동자에게 지급되는 임금 구성요소가 어떻게 되는지 살펴보면 된다.[^5]

A센터는 법정에서 월근무 174시간 기준으로 209시간까지는 연장근무수당을 책정하고, 그 이상의 근무에 대해서는 연장근무수당을 책정하지 않았다고 답변했다. 209시간 이상의 근무에 대해서는 보건복지부 지침에 따라 75%의 임금을 보장했다고 설명했다.[^6] 시간당 임금 구간을 나누어 서술하면 이렇다.

• 월 근무시간이 1시간부터 174시간 구간까지는[^7] 최저임금, 주휴수당, 연차수당이 지급된다.
• 월 근무시간이 174시간부터 209시간 구간까지는 최저임금과 연장근무수당이 지급된다.
• 월 근무시간이 209시간이 넘어가는 시간은 바우처 수가 75%의 임금만을 지급한다.

여기서 알아야 할 숫자는 최저임금, 주휴수당, 연차수당, 연장근무수당, 바우처 75%의 금액이다.

2021년 기준 최저임금은 8,720원이다. 주휴수당은 5일 근무 시 1일 유급휴일이므로 시간급으로 나누면 1/5에 해당한다. 계산하면 1,744원이다. 연차수당은 연차일수 17일을 가정할 경우[^8] 시간급으로 나누면 약 569원이 된다. 연장근무수당은 통상임금의 50%이므로 4,360원이다. 2021년 바우처 수가는 주간기준 14,020원이고 75%는 10,515원이다. 이 값들을 각 식에 대입해 보자.

• 근무시간 1 ~ 174 구간의 시간당 임금: 8,720(최저임금) + 1,744(주휴수당) + 569(연차수당) = 11,033
• 근무시간 174 ~ 209 구간의 시간당 임금 : 8,720(최저임금) + 4,360(연장근무수당) = 13,080
• 근무시간 209 ~ 구간의 시간당 임금 : 14,020(바우처 단가) * 0.75 (75%) = 10,515

사업장에서 시간당 수입이 일정한 조건에서 노동력을 통해 수익을 내기 위해서 가장 중요하게 고려할 요소는 노동자에게 지급하는 시간당 임금 비율이다. 정리하면 다음과 같다.

• 근무시간 1 ~ 174 구간의 시간당 수익 : 14,020(바우처 주간수가) - 11,033(임금) = 2,987
• 근무시간 174 ~ 209 구간의 시간당 수익 : 14,020(바우처 주간수가) - 13,080(임금) = 940
• 근무시간 209 ~ 구간의 시간당 수익 : 14,020(바우처 주간수가) - 10,515(임금) = 3,505
• 근무시간 209 ~ 구간의 시간당 수익 (한자협의 주장대로 75% 권장사항이 삭제될 경우) : 14,020(바우처 주간수가) - 8,720(최저임금) = 5,300

1 ~ 174 구간에서 주간바우처 단가 기준 운영비 수익은 2,987원이고, 174 ~ 209 구간에서 운영비 수익은 940원이 된다. 209시간을 넘어가면 운영비 수익은 3,505원으로 뛴다. 한자협의 주장대로 75% 권장사항이 삭제될 경우에는 최저임금만 지급하면 되므로 운영수익이 시간당 5,300원으로 폭증하게 된다. A센터는 활동지원사의 노동시간을 통제하지 않으면서(소극적 권장) 시간당 운영비 수익을 더욱더 많이 얻을 수 있었다. 일반적인 사업장에서 초단시간 노동자 고용을 통해 인건비를 아끼는 것과 동일하게(사용자가 초단시간 노동자로 노동자의 노동조건을 하락시키는 이유도 시간당 지급되는 인건비를 줄이기 위해서이다), A센터는 반대의 방향으로 근무시간은 늘리고 연장근무수당을 지급하지 않음으로 시간당 수익을 넓히는 전략을 취한 것이다.

사용자의 예상되는 대응이 노동자에게 불이익이 아니라면, 도대체 싸우지 않을 이유가 없다

노동조합의 입장에서는 문제를 제기함에 있어 신중할 수밖에 없다. 법이 항상 약자의 편은 아니고 자본가는 더 빼앗기 위해 법률을 검토하고 이용할 자원이 있기 때문이다. 노동조합도 자신의 행보에 따른 사용자의 대응전략을 예상해 본다. 그런데 그 대응이 노동자계급에 전혀 피해를 주지 않는다면 싸우지 않을 이유가 없다.

한자협은 자신들이 근로기준법을 준수하기 위해서 이제는 1일 근무시간을 8시간으로 통제해야 한다고 선전한다. 그리고 이러한 조처가 불가피하고 이는 장애인이용자들의 불편으로 이어질 것이라고 말한다. 그런데 앞서 설명한 대로 노동자의 임금을 셈한다 하더라도, 연장근무수당을 부정하는 현재의 상태가 유지된다면 노동자 입장에서는 차라리 노동시간 통제가 유리하다. 사용자가 그러한 것과 마찬가지로 노동자 입장에서도 결국 노동력을 제공하는 시간당 임금이 중요한데, 일하면 일할수록 시간당 임금이 줄어드는 A센터와 한자협의 임금체계는 노동자 입장에서 싸우지 않을 이유가 없게 만든다. 특히나 그렇게 수익을 남기면서도 관공서공휴일 유급휴일수당 지급을 회피하고, 노동자를 속여 취업규칙을 개정하는 A센터와 같은 악덕 사업주에게는 더더욱 싸움을 피해야 할 이유가 없다.

한편으로는 이제야 1일 근무시간을 통제하겠다는 한자협의 주장은 기만이다. 한자협 회원기관들은 활동지원제도가 법률로 시행된 2011년부터 회원기관끼리 연계하여 활동지원사의 권리를 찢어 지우기 급급했다. 그 제한이 월 174시간이거나, 1일 8시간이거나 정도의 차이만 있었을 뿐, 개별 사업장들은 이런 통제를 계속해왔다. 그래서 활동지원사 입장에서는 저들의 대응이 하나도 새삼스럽지가 않다.

또한 민간의 활동지원기관이 자신들의 수익성 때문에 장애인이용자에게 불편을 끼친다면, 그것은 그것대로 사회서비스 공공성을 추구해야 할 이유가 될 것이고, 한자협과 같은 활동지원사업 민간수탁기관들이 사라져야 할 이유가 될 것이다.

혁명을 위한 착취가 정당화된다면 그것이 혁명일까

이제 정리해 보자. 한자협의 활동지원사업을 둘러싼 주요 행보는 활동지원사노동자의 중간착취를 정당화 또는 확대하는 방향으로 이루어졌다. 최근 서울시의 활동지원기관 재지정을 둘러싼 한자협의 반발[^9]도 필자가 보기에는 이와 같은 맥락으로 읽힌다. 한자협 회원기관 다수는 근로기준법을 위반하고 활동지원사 노동자를 착취해 가며 센터 규모를 키워왔다. 근로기준법 위반이 명백한 상황에서 재지정 심사에서 탈락하는 기관이 다수 생기는 것도 어렵지 않게 예상 가능하다. 그런데 한자협은 자신들의 노동착취와 위반행위는 인정하지 않은 채 보수정당의 장애인인권운동 탄압으로 프레이밍 한다.

자신들이 성명서 말미에서 요구하는 "단가현실화"와 "공공성 보장"은 어떻게 이루어지는가? 그리고 어떻게 이루어져 왔는가? 활동지원사가 근로기준법 적용을 요구하고 활동지원기관과 싸우는 투쟁이 없었더라도 수가인상이 이루어졌을까? 한자협이 주장하는 대로 수가에 충분히 반영되지 않아서 지불할 수 없다는 정당화가 용인되어도 수가 인상이 이루어졌을까? 시장화된 사회서비스 환경에서 민간기관의 근로기준법 위반을 묵인하는 것으로 공공성이 보장될까? 도대체가 말이 안 되는 소리다. 진보적 장애인 인권운동의 이름으로 발화되는 이런 시답잖은 주장을 언제까지 들어야만 하는가.

한자협은 자신들의 정체성을 운동단체로 규정짓는다. 하지만 그 회원사업장 밑에서 일하는 활동지원사 노동자의 입장에서 보기에, 운동을 핑계로 노동자를 착취하는 또 다른 방식의 자본가일 뿐이다. 우리나라의 사회운동은 언제부턴가 운동의 요구를 한계 짓기 시작했다. 국가가 책임지는 공공성보다는 국가예산을 일부 획득하고 국가의 하청이 되기를 자임했다. 바뀌어버린 풍경은 의식도 변화하게 만들고, 중간착취자로서 자신의 사유를 규정하게 된다. 이제 이쯤 되었으면 운동단체의 국가사업 수탁에 대해서 다시 심각하게 재고해야 하지 않을까. 운동의 몰락은 외부의 탄압에서 기인하지 않는다.

[^1]: 취업규칙 무효소송은 원고의 일부승소로 판결났다. 원고와 피고 모두 항소하지 않아 선고가 확정되었다. [^2]: 대한법률구조공단은 체불피해근로자들에게 민사 소송대리 등의 무료법률구조를 실시하고 있다. [^3]: 이후에 한자협은 기자회견을 하기는 했다. 다만 공감에 대한 규탄 내용은 빠졌다. 해당 기자회견에 대한 글은 이전 칼럼 [장애인 인권은 외치지만 차별주의자입니다] 에서 다루고 있다. [^4]: 파스페이, < https://kcil.org/ >, 한자협에서 구축하고 한자협 회원기관에게만 서비스를 제공하는 장애인활동지원 급여시스템이다. 놀랍게도 해당 서비스는 '근로기준법, 세법준수'를 서비스 장점으로 내세운다. [^5]: 야간근무수당이나 휴일근무수당 또한 같은 방식으로 분석할 수 있지만 이 글에서는 논외로 하자. 퇴직금은 운영수익에서 비례하여 지급되므로 분석하지 않는다. [^6]: 2022년 부터는 226시간까지 연장근무수당을 책정했다고 설명했다. [^7]: 1년은 365일이고, 12개월, 1주일은 7일이다. 365/12/7=4.3452... 1년 중 1달의 평균 주수이다. 1주 40시간이 법정근무시간으로 가정할 경우 40시간 * 1달 평균 주수 = 1달 근무시간이 된다. 이 수치가 약 173.8... 이 된다. 1달 기준 대략적인 법정근무시간이다. [^8]: 연차수당은 근속년수에 따라 다르다. 근로기준법 제60조 4항. [^9]: 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회 성명, [성명] 서울시 ‘활동지원기관 (재)지정 심사’는 법도 원칙도 없는 ‘장애인 단체 길들이기’, ‘적반하장’의 전형이다. 서울시의 부적절 관행과 정부의 무책임에 칼을 빼겠다. , < https://www.kcil.or.kr/post/618 >, 2024-04-26.

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• 장애인활동지원제도 부정수급과 장애인을 지배하는 자들
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10690
• 입력 2024.03.23 20:19

“무급으로 함께 일하기엔 너무 좋고 고마운 존재지만, 막상 임금을 지불하기엔 뭔지 모르게 찝찝하고 아깝다”라는 동료의 속마음을 들어야 했다. 1년을 근무한 단체에서는 임금을 지불할 여유가 도저히 없다며 나의 활동보조시간 일부를 동료에게 명의를 돌려서 가사보조를 얼마만큼 포기하게 하는 대신 나의 임금으로 주기도 했다. 몸과 마음이 점점 지쳐가고, 급기야 몸담고 있던 단체의 안 좋은 실상들을 깨닫게 될 때 쯤 난 동료들과 자주 부딪치기 시작했다. 얼마 지나지 않아 나는 그 일터를 떠났다. - 출처: ‘생산성’ 묻는 사회, 장애여성의 노동은? - 일다 - < https://www.ildaro.com/6188 >

불법으로 규정된 부정수급과 편중된 교육

장애인활동지원제도는 장애인에게 바우처를 지급하고 그 바우처는 장애인활동지원서비스에만 사용하도록 용처를 제한하고 있다. 활동지원 서비스 외의 서비스나 재화를 제공받고 활동지원급여비용을 청구하는 행위 일체는 부정수급으로 판단된다. 활동지원급여비용 청구 주체는 활동지원기관이고, 이 급여비용 중 일부를 활동지원사에게 임금으로 지급한다.

활동지원서비스가 얼마나 제공되었는지는 사회보장정보원 전산시스템을 통해서 기록된다. 활동지원사는 활동지원기관이 지급한 단말기를 가지고 출근한다. 장애인이용자를 만나면 단말기에 장애인이용자의 카드를 태그하고, 전자바우처시스템을 통해 받은 활동지원인력 자신의 카드를 태그한다. 태그가 있어야 사회보장정보원 전산시스템에 출근과 퇴근을 기록할 수 있다. 그러면 서비스를 제공한 시간만큼 장애인이용자의 바우처가 차감된다.

이렇게 기록된 전산기록을 근거로 급여비용이 청구된다. 급여비용은 활동지원기관이 활동지원사를 보내어 장애인에게 정당한 서비스를 제공한 것을 전제로 지급되고, 또 그 전제로 활동지원사에게 임금이 지급된다. 전제가 되는 정당한 활동지원서비스가 없었다면 지급된 비용은 이자가 가산되어 환수[^1]되고, 부정한 청구 행위는 형사처벌을 받을 수 있다.[^2] 행정 차원에서 지정취소 혹은 자격정지를 당하거나[^3] 가담한 장애인수급자는 일정한 기간 활동지원급여가 중단될 수도 있다.[^4]

법률이 엄중히 처벌하는 만큼 부정수급 금지는 강조하고 반복해서 교육된다. 부정수급에 가담할 수 있는 주체는 활동지원기관, 장애인활동지원사, 장애인이용자 세 주체이다. 그리고 이들에게 지배적 지위에 있는 자들이 개입할 수 있다. 그런데 교육은 거의 활동지원사에게만 이루어진다. 활동지원기관은 부정수급을 단속하고 교육해야 할 책임기관 중 한 곳이다. 장애인이용자교육은 대체로 이루어지지 않는다. 장애인이용자 교육도 활동지원기관이 담당하는데, 활동지원기관 입장에서 장애인이용자는 서비스를 제공받고 바우처를 지급하는 고객에 해당한다. 장애인이용자를 교육한다는 것은 고객을 교육하는 꼴이다. 기관에서 교육을 소집해도 장애를 이유로 참가하는 사람 수가 적다. 결국 장애인 고객들에게는 서면이 전달되고 서명만 이루어진다. 교육이 제대로 될 리 없다.

부정수급을 주도하는 자는 누구일까

정작 부정수급은 활동지원사의 주도로 이루어지지 않는다. 사람들의 통념은 부정수급이 장애인을 등쳐먹는 활동지원사들에 의해 이루어진다고 상상하는 듯하다. 제대로 서비스는 제공하지도 않고 임금만 받아 가는 활동지원사. 하지만 여기서 가정되는 장애인은 멍청하고 속기만 하고 빼앗기기만 하는 무력한 장애인이다. 오히려 우리는 장애인이 그런 존재이기만 한지 질문해야 한다. 장애인을 무능한 존재로만 바라보는 시선은 장애혐오 시선의 일부다. 장애혐오적 시선은 노동자에 대한 혐오적 시선으로 이어진다. 그리고 활동지원사만 교육하고 닦달하는 현재의 제도는 어쩌면 그 인식의 결과로 보인다.

앞서 설명한 것처럼, 사회보장정보원에 근무기록을 남기는 방법은 단말기에 카드를 태그해야 한다. 태그를 하기 위해서는 장애인과 활동지원사의 의사일치가 필요하다. 활동지원시간을 장애인들은 생명 같은 시간으로 묘사한다. 활동지원사가 장애인 몰래 카드를 찍는다는 것은 그 생명 같은 시간을 무단으로 탈취하는 행위다. 특히 활동지원 시간을 금액으로 환산하여 표기하기 시작한 2011년부터 장애인이용자들은 바우처 금액을 자신에게 주어진 돈으로 인지하는 경향이 있다. 장애인 몰래 서비스를 제공하지 않고 근무기록을 남긴다는 것은 누군가가 몰래 돈을 훔쳐 가는 것과 같은 일이다. 정말로 활동지원사 단독으로 기망에 의해 그 같은 일이 벌어진다면, 그 장애인은 아주 위험한 상황이다. 바우처뿐만 아니라 모든 재산에 대한 점검이 필요한 문제상황이다. 이런 문제상황은 오히려 활동지원서비스 외에 다른 국가적 차원의 지원이 더욱 필요하다. 하지만 그런 사례는 드물고 장애인은 자신의 욕구에 따라 바우처라는 자원을 잘 분배하여 사용한다.

역으로 질문해 보자. 활동지원사가 부정수급을 제안할 수 있을까? 활동지원사가 부정수급을 제안한다면 장애인 이용자는 즉시 활동지원기관에 알릴 수 있다. 장애인이용자는 응하지 않고 바로 활동지원사를 교체할 수도 있다. 이런 상황에서 활동지원사가 부정수급을 최초로 제안한다는 것은 이미 어떤 특별한 관계 속에 있지 않고서는 불가능한 일이다.

거절할 수도, 신고할 수도 없지만 책임은 져야 한다

활동지원사는 장애인이용자의 부정수급 제안을 거절하기가 힘들다. 이유를 불문하고 서비스 중단을 요구할 수 있는 권력이 장애인이용자에게 있는 현재 상황에서 부정수급을 거절한다는 것은 실질적 해고에 노출되는 것을 각오하는 행위이다.

코로나가 한창이던 시기 뉴스보도에 따르면 한 활동지원사는 장애인이용자의 부정수급 권유를 거절하여 하루아침에 일자리에서 잘리게 됐다.[^5] 코로나 시기에만 있었던 일일까. 해당 보도에서는 코로나로 인한 장애인 일자리 감소를 이유로 들지만, 코로나 이전에도 끝난 지금에도 우리나라 전체 기업체에서 근무하고 있는 장애인 상시근로자 수는 거의 변동이 없다.[^6] 단지 감염병 유행으로 필수 돌봄노동자로서 활동지원사의 실태가 언론에 조금 주목받았을 뿐이지, 정말로 장애인 일자리 감소를 이유로 볼 수는 없다. 보도의 활동지원사는 4월에 근무를 시작하여 9월에 처음으로 부정수급 제안을 받고 교체되는데, 해당 이용자는 이전에도 이후에도 부정수급을 반복할 가능성이 크다.

활동지원사는 부정수급이 이루어지고 있다는 사실을 알아도 신고하기가 힘들다. 부정수급 사실을 알 수 있는 사람은 몇 되지 않아 신분이 노출될 가능성이 크다. 이 또한 서비스 중단으로 이어져 활동지원사가 감내해야 할 부담이 크다.

한편 단속에 적발된 부정수급에 대해서는 활동지원사만 전적으로 책임을 져야 할 가능성이 크다. 입증할 수 없는 사건은 존재하지 않는 것과 같다. 부정수급은 그 불법성이 강조되는 만큼이나 공모자들도 부정수급이 불법이라는 사실을 익히 알고 있다. 그렇다면 공모자들은 그와 관련된 증거를 없애야만 한다. 부정수급은 장애인과 장애인의 주변 사람에 의해 주도되지만, 부정수급과 관련된 증거는 활동지원사를 향하고 있다. 활동지원사와 장애인이용자가 같이 있지 않았다는 증거는 대개 명백하고, 활동지원사에게 임금이 지급된 사실도 명백하다. 하지만 장애인이용자와 주변 사람이 취한 이득에 대해서는 증거가 없을 가능성이 크다. 임금은 활동지원사의 계좌를 스쳐 흔적이 남지 않는 현금으로 누군가에게 전달된다.

장애인을 지배하는 자 바우처를 지배하리니

인용한 본문을 다시 살펴보자. 장애여성은 자신이 기존에 받던 "활동보조시간 일부"를 "동료"에게 명의를 돌려 "임금"으로 받았다고 한다. 본문의 장애여성이 일한 곳은 "장애인을 위한 시민단체"이다. 동시에 활동지원사업을 수탁받은 단체이다. 장애여성에게 임금을 지급할 수 없는 사정이 있다고 주장하는 단체는 (아마도 비장애인)동료를 활동지원사로 등록시켜 서비스를 제공하지 않고도 제공한 듯 활동지원급여비용을 청구했을 테고, 또 동료의 계좌로 활동지원사 임금명목의 금전을 지급했을 것이다. 그리고 그 금전을 현금으로 받아 장애여성에게 임금으로 지급하는 방식을 취했을 것이다.

여기서 중요한 것은 장애여성의 노동시장에서의 취약한 지위가 이중적 착취를 초래한다는 점이다. 임금은 단체가 지급한 것이 아니라, 장애여성이 제공받았어야 할 서비스를 단순히 돈으로 돌려받은 것에 불과하다. 그런데도 장애여성은 노동력까지 제공했다. 바우처 금액도 온전히 받지 못했을 가능성이 크다. 동료는 자신의 명의를 공짜로 제공했을까. 동료의 인건비 일부로 지출되었을 가능성도 있다. 활동지원기관은 25%까지 징수할 수 있는 중개수수료를 확보한다.

이 과정에서 기존에 서비스를 제공하던 활동지원사는 어떻게 됐을까? 서비스 중단을 통보받고 실질적 해고 상태에 돌입하거나, 일을 지속할 수 있었다면 일거리가 줄어 임금이 줄었을 것이다. 장애인이용자의 서비스중단 요구권이 절대적인 현재의 제도 하에서는, 장애인이용자의 취약성은 활동지원사의 취약성으로 연결된다.

이후에 부정수급이 발각된다면 장애여성은 자신이 지급받은 '임금'을 반환할까? 삼자 간의 관계가 어찌 전개될지는 알 수 없다. 어쨌거나 증거는 활동지원사 명의를 달아둔 '동료'를 향해있다.

부정수급이 불가능한 제도가 힘들다면 신고라도 할 수 있는 노동조건을

장애인활동지원제도의 부정수급과 관련한 신문기사는 주기적으로 나온다. 정부는 이를 근절하기 위한 방법으로 단속강화만을 말한다. 하지만 단속만으로 부정수급이 근절될까. 우리는 부정수급을 금지하는 제도가 아니라 부정수급이 불가능한 제도를 구축하라고 주장하고 있다. 장애인의 서비스 시간과 활동지원사의 임금이 연계된 현재의 체계로는 부정수급 가능성이 언제나 잔존한다. 부정수급을 할 이유도 없고 가능하지도 않은 제도로 변화해야 한다. 노동자가 노동자로 보장받아야 할 권리와 장애인이 받아야 할 활동지원의 권리가 분리되어 각각 보장되는 방식으로 제도개선이 이루어져야 한다고 주장하고 있다.

가끔 부정수급과 관련한 문의가 온다. 처음 일을 시작한 지 얼마 되지 않아 뭔가가 이상하다며 문의하는 활동지원사도 있고, 다른 사람이 부정수급을 하는 것을 알게 되었는데 어떻게 하면 되느냐고 묻는 활동지원사도 있다. 미처 모르고 부정수급에 동참한 노동자 대다수의 경우는 장애인이용자나 활동지원기관, 주변 사람들이 부정수급을 주도한 사실에 관한 증거는 없다. 부정수급 관련 상담을 할 때 더 이상 신고하라는 말을 쉽게 할 수가 없다. 정말로 신고했다가 크게 고생하는 활동지원사를 봤기 때문이다. 활동지원사는 정직하게 신고했지만, 임금을 환수당하고 벌금을 내고 자격을 정지당했다. 반면 장애인이용자는 수급권이 잠시 정지되었을 뿐이다. 활동지원사가 부정수급의 굴레를 벗어나려면 일을 그만두는 수밖에는 없다. 일을 그만두는 이유를 밝히기도 힘들다. 자발적 퇴사로 인한 불이익은 노동자 부담이다.

다른 활동지원사가 이용자와 부정수급을 하는 것을 알게 된 활동지원사도 마찬가지다. 실제로 한 노동자는 클린센터에 신고하자 신고를 취소하라는 활동지원기관의 전화를 받았다. 신고자를 보호한다는 클린센터를 믿지 마시라. 그저 모른 척 일하면서, 조용히 다른 일거리를 찾는 게 최선이다.

부정수급이 불가능한 제도로의 혁신이 안 된다면, 활동지원사가 부당한 일을 보면 신고라도 할 수 있는 노동조건은 확보되어야 하지 않을까. 장애인활동지원제도의 부정수급 프로세스의 핵심은 부정수급에 대한 주도권이 장애인과 장애인을 지배하는 자에게 있음에도 증거는 활동지원사를 향해 있다는 점이다. 이 점을 심각하게 받아들이지 않고서는 부정수급을 끊어낼 수도 없고, 이를 통해 피해를 보는 활동지원사가 현장을 이탈하는 일만 늘어날 것이다.

[^1]: 장애인활동 지원에 관한 법률 제35조(부당지급급여의 징수) [^2]: 동법 제47조(벌칙) 제1항 "3년 이하의 징역 또는 3천만원 이하의 벌금에 처한다." [^3]: 동법 제24조(활동지원기관 지정의 취소 등), 제30조(활동지원인력의 자격 취소 및 자격 정지 등) [^4]: 동법 제19조(활동지원급여의 중단 또는 제한) 제1항 "1년의 범위에서 활동지원급여의 수령이나 제공 기간 등을 제한하여야 한다." [^5]: 황 씨는 한 시각 장애인을 주6일, 오전 10시부터 오후 6시까지 돌보고 있었습니다. 그런데 이 시각장애인이 황 씨에게 '거래'를 제안한 겁니다. 화요일과 목요일은 자신을 돌봐주지 않아도 되고, 다른 요일에도 오후 일찍 퇴근할 수 있도록 해 주는 등 편의를 봐줄 테니 60만 원을 달라고 요구했다는 것입니다. 황 씨는 "60만 원을 주고는 도저히 일을 못 하겠다고 (돌봄 대상자에게) 얘기했더니 하루아침에 (일자리에서)잘리게 됐다"고 합니다. _ KBS뉴스, 2020년 12월 8일자 보도, “우리도 돌봄이 필요해요”…장애인 돌보는 ‘돌봄 노동자’, < https://news.kbs.co.kr/news/pc/view/view.do?ncd=5065927 > [^6]: 한국장애인고용공단에서는 매년 '기업체장애인고용실태조사'를 발표한다. 2018년부터 2023년 우리나라 전체 기업체에서 근무하고 있는 장애인 상시근로자 수를 살펴보면 22만 명 언저리에서 큰 변동이 없다.

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• 활동지원사와 명절선물
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10652
• 입력 2024.01.25 12:55

나는 소속 활동지원기관에서 지급하는 추석 선물을 며칠 전에 받아왔다. 2023년 추석의 선물을 2024년 1월이 되어서야 받아온 것이다. 그리고 내가 서비스하는 장애인이용자에게 주어지는 선물 또한 받아 전달하였다. 이것은 짐짓 간단한 사실 같지만, 많은 쟁점을 내포하고 있다.

누군가는 선물을 주면 감사히 받아야 한다고 생각할 것이다. 하지만 그게 임금으로 받아야 할 것을 돌려서 받는 거라면 이야기가 다르다. 최저임금과 근로기준법상의 법정수당은 지급하지 않으면서 명절 선물은 준다면 이야기는 달라진다. 임금-권리로 받아야 할 돈을 돌려 시혜적 선물로 받는 것에 불과하기 때문이다. 그리고 선물이라면 상여금이 좋은가 상품이 좋은가? 상품이라면 어떤 상품이 좋은가? 장애인이용자에게도 선물을 준다면 그 선물은 어떤 방식으로 전달되어야 하는가? 수년째 명절 선물을 받으면서도 나는 이런 질문들을 해왔다.

활동지원사 중에는 기관에서 명절 선물도 안 준다고 불만을 토로하는 분이 있는가 하면, 명절 선물보다는 돈으로 줬으면 좋겠다는 분들도 있다. 선물에는 주는 사람이 받는 사람을 생각하는 마음이 들어있다고 느끼는 사람들이 있다. 이런 마음을 느끼는 것을 중히 여기는 노동자들도 있어 '돈'으로 받는 것 보다 '선물'을 선호하는 사람도 있다. 이런 분 중 한 분에 의하면 '선물'로 받아야만 기관에 소속된 감정을 느낀다고 했다. 이런 감정은 정말 사람마다 다르고 지역마다 달라서 '정서'의 차이라고밖에는 설명할 수가 없다. 이것은 결국 당사자의 차이에서 기인하는 것으로 당사자의 의사에 따라 달리 정할 수밖에 없다.

그런데 또 아무리 선물이 좋아도 사람 마음이라는 게 비교도 한다. 기관마다 선물이 다르면 선물을 비교하기도 한다. 선물의 시장가가 얼마이고, 어디에서 구매했으며, 자신에게 어떤 제품이 얼마나 효용이 좋은지 따지게 된다. 그래서 노동자들이 더욱 선호하는 상품이 생기게 된다. 그래서 그것은 때론 노사협의회 안건이 되기도 한다.

그런데 가끔은 기관에 따라 이 선물을 신념으로 구매하기도 한다. 내가 속한 센터도 그런 센터 중의 하나이다. 매번 명절선물을 진보적 장애인운동 기금 마련을 위한 명절특판에서 구매한다. 이번에 내가 받아온 선물은 2023년 전장연 추석특판 상품번호 27 델리팜잡곡 2호다. 가격은 3만 원으로 책정되어 있다.

▲전장연 2023 추석선물 특판 웹자보. ‘품절’ 표시된 상품이 〈2023년 전장연 추석특판 상품번호 27 델리팜잡곡 2호〉. 이미지 출처=전국장애인차별철폐연대

사회 운동단체들은 운동기금을 마련하기 위해서 후원주점을 열거나 수익사업을 한다. 이런 사업에 참여하는 후원자들은 질과 양을 따지지 않는다. 후원주점이나 단체 수익사업의 취지는 개최하는 단체에 재정적 지원을 하는 것이고, 참여자들은 후원하고자 하는 단체가 최대한 수익을 남길 수 있도록 최대한 호구가 될 마음으로 참여한다. 지불은 하지만 물질적 향유를 추구하지 않는 것이 참여자의 기본 덕목이다.

그런데 그런 상품을 노동자 복지에 사용한다면 어떨까? 노동자 복지를 깎아 먹는 일이 될 것이다. 그리고 그러한 결정이 독단에 의해 결정된다면 더욱 문제가 많을 것이다. 그리고 그러한 과정에서도 이득을 보는 사람이 있다. 나는 지난 칼럼에서도 제세공과금 명목으로 관련 단체로 활동지원사업 수익금이 흘러 들어감을 지적했다. 선물 구매과정도 이와 유사하다. 기관 회계상으로는 선물구매와 금액으로만 기록이 남겠지만, 특판 목적 자체가 진보적 장애인 운동 기금 마련이므로, 활동지원사업 수익금은 관련 단체 기금 마련에 기여하게 된다.

이렇게 보면 명절 선물 구매는 특정 단체 수익을 위해 수단화된 과정이고, 선물 수여는 노동자들에게 빼앗은 권리를 은폐하기 위한 은혜가 된다. 이런 사례가 모든 활동지원기관에 적용된다고 확언할 수는 없다. 노동자 권리를 온전히 보장하면서도 노동자 복지를 위해서 선물을 추가로 지급하는 기관이 있다면 아주 훌륭한 기관일 것이다. 하지만 기관의 집행 세부내역에까지 공적 관리체계가 작동하지 않는 이상 얼마든지 다른 방식으로 변주될 수 있다. 그리고 이것은 어쩌면 이미 어떤 변주이기도 하다. 기존에 종교단체가 노동자에게 십일조를 강요해 문제가 됐다면, 이제 운동단체는 권리삭제를 은폐하고 시혜로 가장하여 신념에 기여할 것을 강제했을 뿐이다.

선물은 구매로 끝나는 것이 아니다. 선물을 사는 이유는 주기 위해서다. 우리 노동자들은 선물을 받으러 활동지원기관에 방문해야만 한다. 노동자에게 주어지는 선물이므로 문제가 아니다. 그런데, 기관에 따라서는 장애인이용자에게도 명절선물을 주는 경우가 있다. 장애인이용자가 기관에까지 방문하는 것은 힘든 경우가 많다. 그런데, 이에 대한 배달 노동은 활동지원사에게 무급노동으로 떠맡겨진다.

출근하지도 않았는데 장보기를 시키는 사례는 너무 흔한 장애인이용자 갑질사례다. "오는 길에 XX 좀 사다 주세요."라는 장애인이용자의 출근길 요청은 꽤 곤란하다. 사실상 이용자를 위한 장보기 노동을 수행하는데 무급으로 수행된다. 이런 요청이 잦아지면 이용자들도 미안해서 활동지원사에게 바우처 카드를 맡기기도 한다. 하지만 활동지원사가 이용자를 위해 마트에 들어가는 순간에 근무시작을 기록해도 정부는 '부정수급'으로 판단하고 노동자는 범죄자가 된다. 이용자의 카드를 소지하는 것은 부정수급의 소지가 있기에 금지되고, 장애인이용자와 함께 있지 않은 상황에서 근무기록을 하는 것은 부정수급이라는 것이 정부의 일관된 기준이다.

정부가 말하는 기준은, 이용자를 만나 출근한 후에 장보기를 수행하라는 것이다. 장애인이용자와 함께 장 보기가 어렵다면 활동지원기관에 보고하고 장보기를 수행해야만 한다. 하지만 이런 기준에도 출근길에 무언가를 사 오라며 부탁하는 장애인이용자들은 흔하다. 출근길에 소모되는 시간은 너무 쉽게 판단되고 오는 길에 무언가를 사 오는 무급노동은 장애인이용자들에게 너무 당연한 일이어서 문제다.

그런데 활동지원사의 무급노동을 당연시하는 태도가 명절선물을 대하는 활동지원기관의 태도에서도 드러난다. "오는 길에 XX 좀 사다 주세요" 와 "가는 길에 선물 좀 갖다주세요"는 너무 완벽하게 대칭되는 한 쌍이다. 활동지원기관의 선물전달이 활동지원사의 업무에 해당하기는 하는가? 선물 배달시간은 근무시간에 왜 해당하지 않는가? 활동지원기관들은 활동지원사에게 왜 이런 업무를 어떻게 시킬 수 있을까? 오히려 기관의 선물은 장애인이용자의 집으로 택배 배달을 시키는 것이 상식적이고 당연하지 않은가?

나는 추석선물을 뒤늦게 받아 들고 이런저런 상념에 빠진다. 적어도 나에게 활동지원사의 명절 선물은 단순한 선물이 아니다. 내가 이 추석선물을 3달이 지나 받아 들게 된 것도, 서류 업무와 기관 방문이 무급으로 상정된 제도적 문제, 해당 시간에 대한 유급화를 회피하는 활동지원기관의 자체 정책 결과다. 노동자로서 방문의 의무가 없으니 3달이 지나서야 물품을 수령한다. 마침 단말기가 고장 나지 않았다면 더 늦게 수령했을 수도 있다. 활동지원제도의 근간 자체가 돌봄노동자의 무급노동 위에 서 있다. 정부도 활동지원기관도 이에 대한 문제인식이 있을까? 저항하지 않는 존재는 존중받지 못한다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 장애인에 대한 편의제공 의무의 범주
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10611
• 입력 2023.11.22 17:09

활동지원사 호텔비도 지출해야 해요?

나의 이용자와 함께 타지역으로 여행을 간 적이 있었다. 여행지에 아는 사람이 있어 그런지 이용자는 나에게 숙박비 이야기를 하지는 않았다. 친구의 집에 초대되어 식사하던 중에, 활동지원사에 대해 생각해 본 적이 없었다며 초대자가 여러 가지를 물었다. 어쩌면 노동자보다 장애인이 더 친근한 초대자는 장애인이 여행하는 데 직면하는 무수한 문제에 더욱 공감하는 듯했다. 그러니까, 장애인이 여행을 갈 때, 같이 가는 활동지원사의 호텔비까지 장애인이 부담해야 하는 것이냐고 물었다.

누구나 그렇듯 장애인도 때로는 여행을 가고 싶다. 그런데 넘어야 할 산이 많다. 장애인의 여행에는 단순히 이동권 보장만 문제가 되는 것은 아니다. 2023년 8월 28일자 KBS보도에서는 장애인이 제주도로 비행기를 타고 가는데 파리를 여행하는 것과 비슷한 비용이 든다고 보도했다. 그런데 사실 조금 더 따져보자면 여기에는 몇몇 비용이 누락되어 있다. 장애인이 이동할 때 장애인만 가는 것은 아니다. 장애인을 지원할 누군가가 동행해야 한다. 이는 활동지원사가 될 수도 있고 가족이 될 수도 있고 반려인이 될 수도 있다.

현행 장애인활동지원제도에서는 활동지원서비스를 받는 장애인이 활동하는 데에 드는 비용을 누가 부담해야 하는지 기준을 제시한다. 활동지원사는 자신이 먹는 식사와 관련하여 장애인에게 부담을 주지 말라고 양성 교육에서부터 교육받는다. 그 외에  "외출동행에 소요되는 서비스 제공자의 경비 부분(공연 관람 등)은 이용자가 제공"하도록 되어 있다. 하지만 현장에서는 유명무실한 경우가 많다. 장애인당사자들이 재정적으로 넉넉한 경우는 거의 없다 보니, 활동지원사에 해당하는 비용은 활동지원사가 지불하길 요구하는 경우들이 종종 있다. 흔하게는 영화관람부터 동물원, 놀이동산, 드물게는 여행에 이르기까지 다양하다.

가족이나 반려인, 지인은 자신이 동행하는 비용을 함께 여행가는 비용으로 여길 테지만 노동자인 활동지원사의 경우 상황이 조금 다르다. 활동지원사 입장에서는 다른 지역까지 멀리 일하러 가는 것인데, 일하는 데에 드는 비용을 부담한다는 것은 임금이 삭감되는 것과 마찬가지다. 안 그래도 여행지에서의 식비는 대게 물가가 비싼 경우가 많은데, 교통비와 숙박비까지 부담한다는 것은 임금으로 생활을 영위해야 하는 노동자 입장에서는 곤란한 일이다. 장애인이 여행을 결심한다는 것은 축하해야 할 일이지만, 옆에서 일하는 활동지원사 입장에서는 여행을 앞두고 고민을 토로하는 경우가 많다. 낯선 환경에서의 업무강도 가중, 피로는 덤이다. 더욱 부담되는 것은 대개 활동지원사가 이 비용을 부담하지 않으면 장애인의 여행계획은 무산되는 경우가 많다는 것이다. 활동지원사의 책임은 아니지만, 이용자의 원망은 이성적으로 이루어지는 것이 아니고, 비용을 기꺼이 부담하는 누군가로 대체되어 일자리를 잃을 수도 있다. 그래서 나는 어딘가에 여행을 다녀왔다는 장애인을 보면 내심 "그래서 활동지원사에게 숙박비와 교통비를 얼마만큼 부담시켰나요?"라고 묻고 싶어질 때가 있다.

나도 일상적으로 장애인이용자와 영화관람을 할 때가 있다. 하지만 영화관람을 할 때 내가 영화를 온전히 한편을 다 관람하기는 힘들다. 장애인이용자도 활동지원사를 영화관에 동행시킬 정도면, 자신이 서비스받아야 할 필요가 있기 때문이다. 눈물 콧물을 사소하게 닦아주는 것부터, 갑작스레 화장실에 같이 갈 경우까지, 아니면 정말 영화가 재미가 없어서 갑자기 나오는 경우까지. 해당 영화관람은 나의 의사로 자유롭게 온전하게 이루어지기 힘들다. 나는 장애인의 편안한 영화관람을 위해 투입되는 인력일 뿐이지, 영화를 관람하는 소비자는 아니다. 정말 재미있는 영화라면 나는 나중에 별도로 비용을 지불하고 다시 영화를 봐야 한다. 이런 지경이다 보니 영화관에서 나에 대한 비용을 받는다는 것과 이 비용을 장애인이 부담해야 하는 것이 다소 불합리하게 여겨진다.

이런 불합리함을 느끼며 나는 종종 차라리 활동지원사를 인간으로 취급해 주지 않았으면 싶을 때가 있다. 차라리 개 취급을 해줬으면 싶을 때가 있다. 시각장애인 안내견들은 장애인을 위한 안내 업무를 하면서 문화시설에 대한 출입료가 징수되지 않는다. 시각장애인 안내견에 대한 출입금지가 시각장애인에 대한 차별인 것이 인정된다면, 활동지원사에 대한 출입금지 혹은 비용에 대한 부과는 왜 장애인에 대한 차별이 아닌가.

나는 이 글에서 두 가지를 말하고 싶다. 이 모든 차별에도 불구하고 활동지원사노동자에게 비용을 전가하는 장애인이용자들의 행태는 비판받아야 하고 금지되어야 한다. 서비스제공자가 장애인과 동행하는 사람에 대한 비용을 징수하는 것은 큰 범주에서 장애인차별로 인정되고 금지되어야 한다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 장애인활동지원제도의 화폐중심적 사유와 차별
• 뉴스풀 : https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10564
• 입력 2023.10.08 00:22

추석이 지나니 사람들이 연휴 후유증을 겪는다. 총 6일간의 연휴가 있다 보니 다시 업무에 돌입하기가 힘든가보다. 2023년 추석이 지나니 사람들은 벌써 내후년의 명절을 기다리는 모양이다. 2025년 추석은 7일의 연휴라고 한다.

하지만 정규직 직장인들이 그토록 환호하는 연휴에도 장애인은 고통스러워한다. 일단 활동지원사도 경우에 따라서는 명절을 가족과 보내야 해서 근무를 하지 못하는 경우가 많다. 장애인들은 명절에 활동지원사를 구하기 힘들고, 다행스럽게도 구한다 하더라도 바우처 소비가 더욱 많아져 고통스러워한다.

장애인의 입장에서는 활동지원 바우처 소비가 많아져 명절을 싫어한다고 말하면 사람들은 일견 낯설어한다. 하지만 이러한 문제는 사실 하루 이틀 일이 아니다. 장애인 활동지원제도는 2011년부터 법제화되어 시행되었고, 2011년 이전까지 '월 단위 시간'으로 보장되던 활동지원이 '월 단위 금액'으로 환산되어 표시되기 시작했다. 2012년부터 야간과 휴일에 소비되는 바우처 수가가 주간보다 1천 원 많이 소모되도록 변화되었고,[^1] 2013년 8월 1일부터는 휴일/야간의 경우 주간 대비 150%의 수가가 소비되도록 변경한 것이 현재까지 이어져 오고 있다.

문제는 이렇게 '시간'에서 '돈'처럼 금액 단위로 표기하고 야간이나 휴일 시기에 따라 소모되는 양을 변화시키는 방식이 장애인들에게 예상치 못한 변수로 다가오게 된다는 점이다. 이번 10월 2일처럼 대통령이 갑자기 임시공휴일을 지정이라도 하는 일이 생기면, 그날의 바우처 소비는 150%로 증가하게 된다. 관공서공휴일을 많은 사람들이 유급휴일로 누리지만, 이를 누릴 수 없는 5인 미만 사업장 노동자들이 차별을 겪는 것처럼, 장애인이 쓸 수 있는 활동지원 시간은 줄어들게 되어 실질적 손해로 이어지게 되니, 나로서는 이러한 것도 차별이라 생각한다.

그런데 이런 문제는 사실 꼭 명절이 아니어도 마찬가지다. 주간에 활동지원을 쓰는지 야간에 활동지원을 쓰는지에 따라 장애인이 이용할 수 있는 시간이 변동된다. 장애인 중에는 야간에 특히 활동지원을 받는 것이 중요한 사람들이 있다. 욕창을 방지하기 위해 체위 변경이 필수적인 사람들, 수면중 호흡기 상태를 옆에서 누군가가 관찰해야 하는 장애인들 등. 오히려 야간에 서비스가 필요한 사람들이 있다. 그런데 이들은 야간에 서비스를 쓸 수록, 지원받을 수 있는 활동지원서비스 시간의 총량이 줄어들게 된다.

'시간'에서 '금액'으로의 변화는 전 국가적으로 한 번에 이루어지지 않았다. 2019년 중앙정부는 사회보장정보원을 통한 사회서비스 바우처 전산관리를 점차로 확대하기 시작했고, 기초단위에서 추가로 지원되던 활동지원시간도 '시간' 보장에서 '금액' 보장으로 변화하게 되었다. 그 확대 과정에서도 얼마간의 갈등은 있었다. 적어도 기초추가지원의 경우 밤에 쓰건 낮에 쓰건 휴일에 쓰건, 일정 '시간'을 보장받던 장애인들은 자신의 시간이 줄어든 것을 체감했다. 장애인당사자들이 투쟁한 일부 기초지자체의 경우 지원시간을 늘려줌으로써 변화에 대한 완충을 기했지만, 당사자들이 투쟁하지 않거나 못했던 지역의 경우 주간수가를 기준으로 '금액'을 보장받았다.

시간을 보장하는 방식으로 되돌려도 '월 단위' 시간이라는 점이 장애인의 삶을 불안하게 한다. 2월처럼 한 달이 28일인 경우 보장받는 시간이 상대적으로 넉넉하지만, 한 달이 31일인 경우는 또 다르다.

나는 장애인활동지원제도의 가장 심각한 모순점 중 하나가 장애인의 권리와 노동자의 권리를 정부의 예산중심적 시각으로 획일화하는 데에서 발생한다고 생각한다. 활동지원제도가 장애인이 일상생활을 영위할 수 있도록 제공되는 보편적 권리로서의 공공재 성격을 가진다면, 주간이건 야간이건 공휴일이건 월간이건 일정한 수준이 꾸준하게 공급되어야 한다고 생각한다. 나는 이를 실현하기 위해서 장애인에게 현재처럼 월 단위가 아닌 주 단위로(적어도 일정 일수를 주기로) 활동지원서비스가 보장되어야 하고, 금액이 아니라 시간으로 활동지원 서비스가 보장되어야 한다고 생각한다. 그리고 활동지원사 노동자 권리 보장 기준은 장애인의 권리를 보장하는 기준과는 별도로 구분되어 예산이 책정되어야 한다고 생각한다.

[^1]: 2011년까지는 주간-휴일-야간의 경우 서비스 제공 수가가 일괄 6,000원이었다. 활동지원사에게도 야간-휴일 수당이 있어야 한다는 주장들이 있자 정부는 2012년부터 주간수가는 8,300원, 야간-휴일의 경우 9,300원으로 변경하였다. 그마저도 4시간까지만 적용되었다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 전가된 돌봄과 엄벌주의
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10518
• 입력 2023.08.25 13:54

공격성향의 돌봄대상 – 교육도 지원도 없이

나는 A를 B와 함께 만났다. A는 대화가 통하지 않았다. B는 A의 보호자다. B는 A에게 필요한 일을 나에게 지시했다. 내가 밥과 물을 차려주면 A는 알아서 먹었다. 때로는 A를 데리고 산책을 다녀왔다. A는 보조기기 없이도 잘 다녔고, 집 바깥 화장실을 좋아했다. 우리는 종종 집 인근 공원의 화장실에 오갔다. A는 대소변을 본 후 뒤처리를 해 줄 필요가 없어 큰 어려움이 없었다. 다만 그가 다른 사람을 깨물기도 해 문제였다. A에게는 손발톱 깎기, 목욕이 필요했고, A는 그 과정에서 나에게 공격성을 보이기도 했다. 처음 서비스를 들어간 지 얼마 되지 않아, B는 A를 목욕시키라고 했다. A는 목욕을 싫어하는 듯 했고, 목욕을 거부하며 나를 깨물려 했다. 자칫했다간 내가 물릴 판이었다. 결국 나는 A의 머리를 밀치고 목덜미를 잡은 채 몇 대 쥐어박았다. A는 공포에 떨며 몸 씻김을 당했다. 깔끔해진 A를 보며 B는 만족해했다. B는 다소 폭력이 있었음을 알았지만, 같이 살려면 어쩔 수 없다며 묵인했다.

장애인 활동지원에 관한 이야기다. 하지만 장애인에 관한 이야기는 아니다. A는 장애인 B씨가 키우는 반려견이다. 나는 개를 키워본 적이 없고, 개를 대하는 방법에 대해 교육받아본 적이 없다. 반려동물이 대중화된 만큼이나 반려동물을 키우는 장애인도 많고, 반려동물을 돌보는 일도 현실적 업무로 활동지원사에게 떠넘겨진다. 하지만 이에 대한 지침은 물론이고 교육은 전무하다. 돌이켜보면, 반려견이 조금은 더 편안해할 목욕이 불가능한 것은 아닐 것이다. 먼저 반려견과 내가 친해지고 서로에게 익숙해지는 시간이 충분히 있었으면 좋았을 것이다. 그리고 나에게 누군가가 반려견의 행동을 살피고 헤아리는 방법, 반려견의 공격행동을 대처하는 방법, 이러한 행동을 교정할 수 있는 방법을 미리 알려주었더라면 더 좋았을 것이다. 반려견의 개별적 특성도 알려줬다면 더 좋았을 것이다. 아니면 아예 개 전문가를 붙여줄 수도 있다. 하지만 우리에게는 그런 시스템이 없다. 그저 활동지원사는 장애인이용자에게 갈 뿐이고, 장애인이용자가 요구하면 요구하는 대로 서비스를 제공한다.

신체장애인과 구분되는 발달장애인 지원방법

이는 반려동물에게만 적용되는 이야기는 아니다. 활동지원사들은 종종 발달장애인의 지원에 관해 어려움을 토로한다. 활동지원사들은 실질적인 매뉴얼이 없다고 호소한다. 신체장애인은 그들의 지시대로 업무를 수행하면 되지만 발달장애인은 같지 않다. 발달장애인을 지원하는 방법은 애초부터 장애인의 의사에 따르지 않는다. 활동지원사는 발달장애인을 부모 혹은 그에 준하는 주변사람과 함께 만난다. 활동지원사들의 서비스 내용은 장애인당사자가 정하는 것이 아니라, 보호자에 의해 결정된다. 활동지원사는 첫 만남에서 발달장애인 개인의 특성을 파악하는 것은 불가능하고, 보호자의 이야기를 듣는다. 실질적인 업무지시는 이들을 통해서 이루어지고, 해당 활동지원사에게 서비스를 받을지 중단할지에 대한 결정도 보호자를 통해 이루어진다. 보호자가 요청하는 서비스 내용에는 당사자에게 통제를 가하는 내용이 포함된다. 보호자가 발달장애인 당사자에게 소위 인권적이라 할 만한 서비스를 요구하는지도 불확실하다. 사실 발달장애인의 의사를 존중하고, 발달장애인의 모든 행위에 대해 보호자가 책임을 져 준다면, 활동지원사는 발달장애인을 통제할 이유가 없다.

발달장애인과 활동지원사는 관계를 미리 형성할 시간도 주어지지 않고, 발달장애인을 대하는 특별한 교육이나 지침도 없고, 개별 발달장애인의 특성에 대한 적절한 정보가 주어지지 않는다. 안타깝게도 보호자들은 개별 발달장애인의 특성을 잘 정리하여 활동지원사에게 전달할 여력이 없는 경우도 있고, 활동지원인력이 서비스 제공을 꺼릴 사유를 알리고 싶어하지 않는 경우도 많다. 발달장애인에게 공격당한 활동지원사가 산재보험을 신청하려 해도 혹여나 자신의 자녀가 어려운 이용자로 소문날까 두려워한 부모의 만류로 신청하지 못한 경우도 있었다.

자기결정권이라는 환상

국가는 장애를 통제하기 위해 일률적으로 장애라 규정하고 줄 세우지만, 장애 내부의 차이는 비장애와 장애의 차이보다 크다. 나는 솔직히 발달장애인의 자기결정권을 이야기 할 때, 비장애인과 신체장애인 중심으로 형성된 자기결정권 패러다임을 발달장애인에게 일괄적으로 적용하는 것이 정당한지 의문이 들 때가 많다. 겉으로는 발달장애인의 자기결정권을 존중하는 척 하지만, 내용을 들여다보면 그렇지가 않다. 우리 사회는 발달장애인의 자기결정권을 존중하지도 않고, 활동지원사들에게 그렇게 가르치지도 않고, 그렇게 지시하지도 않는다.

중증의 발달장애인에게는 신체장애인을 지원할 때에는 강조되지 않는 보호, 그리고 그 보호와 구분되지 않는 통제가 요청되기도 한다. 언어장애인과의 소통에는 언어장애를 고려하여 천천히 반복적으로 신중하게 인내심을 갖고 듣는 것이 강조되지만, 발달장애인과의 소통에는 장애인이 말을 잘 듣도록 만들기 위한 스킬들이 강조된다.

활동지원사 양성교육교재를 보자. 활동지원사가 되고자 하는 사람은 해당 교재로 교육을 받는다. 발달장애인을 설명하는 장에서는 “자기결정권 부여”하라 면서도, “지적장애인에 대한 무조건적인 수용이나 인정은 바람직하지 않다”[^1]고 말한다. 존중받을 사안과 존중받지 않아야 할 사안을 타인이 판단하는 것 자체가 이미 존중받지 못함을 의미한다. 한편 사회적으로 이슈화되고 문제가 제기되는 발달장애인의 도전행동에 대해서는 신체적 개입, 공간적 분리 조치가 가능한 것으로 언급한다.

③ 위기단계

이 단계에서는 이용자의 감정상태가 일정 수준 이상으로 증가하고, 결과적으로 도전적 행동이 발생한다. 활동지원사는 이용자의 도전적 행동이 어떻게 진행되는지 이해하고, 도전적 행동의 발생상황에 지원하는 과정에서 이용자와 활동지원사 모두를 보호할 수 있어야 한다. 이때 이용자나 타인의 안전을 위하여 신체적 개입이 이루어지기도 한다. 손목잡기 등의 직접적 신체접촉을 통한 개입이나 격리·문 잠그기 등의 활동에 제한을 가하는 공간적 개입과 같은 유형이 있다. 다만 신체적 개입에 대해 이용자의 인권을 보호 및 존중하기 위하여 다른 방법이 없을 경우 최후의 수단으로 최소한 시간이 소요되도록 진행되어야 한다.

_ 보건복지부 한국장애인개발원 발간, 활동지원사 양성 교육교재, 2021년 12월 발행판, 139쪽. 밑줄강조 필자.

이러한 조치 이전에 제시하고 있는 절차는 관련된 사람들과의 논의가 전부다.

발생 전과 후에 이르기까지 활동지원사의 역할을 확인하고, 특히 신체적 개입 등에 관해서도 논의할 필요가 있다. 이와 같은 당사자, 활동지원사, 보호자와 가족, 활동지원 제공기관의 소통과정은 사전에 이루어져야 할 것이며, 지원 과정에서도 지속될 필요가 있다. 이때 비판적인 태도를 보이지 않으면서 정보를 공유해야 한다.

_ 보건복지부 한국장애인개발원 발간, 활동지원사 양성 교육교재, 2021년 12월 발행판, 137쪽. 밑줄강조 필자.

보호자로부터 허락받은 신체구속과 감금은 정당할까

양성교육교재에서는 “당사자, 활동지원사, 보호자와 가족, 활동지원 제공기관”이 소통하여 사전에 정하고 소통이 지속되는 것이 바람직하다고 말한다. 하지만 현장에서 이에 대한 논의는 거의 전적으로 보호자에게 의존되어 있다. 당사자는 동의·부동의 여부를 표할 수 없는 경우도 있고, 보호자가 활동지원기관을 선택하므로 활동지원기관의 영향력이란 크지 않다. 활동지원기관은 기관대로 사례별로 촘촘히 지원하기에는 인력이 부족하다. 결국 앞서 말한 대로 서비스 내용은 보호자에 의해 결정되고, 앞서 언급된 “신체접촉을 통한 개입”과 “공간적 개입”은 보호자의 의사에 따라 이루어질 수 있다. 아니면 보호자마저 방임하여 활동지원사가 전적으로 결정하게 될 수도 있다.

보호자도 장애인을 학대하지 않는다고 보장할 수 없다. 2019년 7월 보건복지부가 발간한 양성교육교재에서는 도전행동에 대한 명시 자체가 없었다. 2019년 12월 대전에서는 친모와 활동지원사가 지적장애인을 수시로 화장실에 가두고 때려 숨지게 하는 사건이 있었다.[^2] 장애인 구속을 위해 개 목걸이가 사용되기도 했다. 그런데 그 사건이 있은 얼마 후 발달장애인의 도전행동에 대한 신체적·공간적 개입을 새로이 명시하는 양성교육교재가 2021년 12월에 발행되었다. 정부는 개별 사건을 일탈적 사건으로 인식하는 데에 급급하다.

피할 수 없는 구체적 돌봄, 국가의 역할

신체장애인에게 신체구속과 감금이 이루어졌다면, 장애인학대로 판단될 것이다. 비장애인에게 같은 일이 벌어진다면, 형법상 범죄로 판단될 것이다. 발달장애인에게 신체장애인 또는 비장애인과 같은 수준의 자기결정권이 존중된다면, 마찬가지로 판단되어야만 하는 것은 아닐까?

장애인에 대한 지원은 공적 지원체계로 이루어져야 한다. 그리고 그래서 발달장애인의 도전행동 돌발행동에 대한 통제도 공적 차원에서 이루어져야 한다. 나는 발달장애인에 대한 신체통제가 사인의 판단에 의해, 사인의 물리력 행사에 의해 가능하다는 생각 자체가 발달장애인을 둘러싼 학대 등 여러 사건의 싹은 아닐까 생각한다. 차별적 교육을 받은 종사자들이 학대를 하지 않는 것이 오히려 기적은 아닐까. 교재에서 말하는 ‘최후의 수단’, ‘최소한의 시간’은 정말 최후이고 최소한일까. 그 판단에 대한 보증은 누가하는가? 이러한 판단들을 사인에게만, 그것도 대부분의 경우 한사람의 활동지원사에게 맡겨두는 것은 옳은가. 우리사회는 장애인을 대함에 있어 국가공권의 사용마저 아까워하는 사회는 아닐까.

발달장애인에 대한 신체통제가 정말로 ‘최후의 수단’, ‘최소한의 시간’ 만큼 필요하다면 비장애인에게 그러한 것처럼 사법절차와 공권력에 의해서만 예외적으로 신중하게 행사되도록 하는 것이 맞다. 국가가 행할 판단을 어정쩡하게 돌봄노동자들에게 전가시키고, 학대라며 비난하는 일은 없어져야 한다. 제대로 된 매뉴얼과 지원방안이 조속히 마련되어야 한다.

[^1]: 보건복지부 한국장애인개발원 발간, 활동지원사 양성 교육교재, 2021년 12월 발행판, 132쪽. [^2]: 연합뉴스, 지적장애인 빨랫방망이로 때려 숨지게 한 활동지원사 징역 17년, https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200618115100063 , 2020-06-18

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 장애인이 하는 요리
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10445 - 입력 2023.06.21 11:59

어느 날 일요일 아침이다. 출근하니 장애인 이용자가 친구의 집들이를 간다고 했다. 각자가 요리를 조금씩 준비하는 포틀럭 파티(Potluck party)를 하기로 했다며, 오늘은 자신이 궁중떡볶이를 해주겠다고 큰소리를 친다. 이용자는 양손을 쓸 수 없는 뇌병변장애인이다. 나는 대뜸 이렇게 물었다. "궁중 떡볶이를 해주겠다는 거예요. 궁중 떡볶이를 하게 시키겠다는 거예요?"

그러자 특유의 유쾌한 웃음을 보이며 자신이 다닌 야학에서는 활동지원사가 한 것도 자기가 한 거라고 배웠다고 한다. 아니 활동지원사가 한 게 어떻게 자기가 한 게 되는가? 이제 이용자가 나를 냉장고로 이끈다. 냉장고에는 양념 된 고기와 썰어진 야채들이 준비되어 있다. "오~ 많이 준비해 뒀네요?"라고, 감탄하니, "내가 준비했다."고 말한다. 우리는 서로를 보며 또 한 번 웃는다. 그럴 리가.

이제 재료를 조리 판 위에 놓는다. 재료 투입에도 순서가 있다. 이용자는 이것저것 지시한다. 불을 강하게 하랬다가 약하게 하랬다가, 식재료를 저기로 치워 두랬다가 이제는 넣으라 했다가. 나는 그냥 시키는 대로 한다. 다년간의 활동지원 경력으로 나의 판단은 의미가 없다는 것을 배웠다. 이 요리는 내가 한 것이 아니고, 내 책임도 아니다. 요리 과정에 의견을 내는 것이 장애인 이용자의 자기결정권을 침해하는 행위가 될 수도 있다. 망친 요리는 더러운 맛으로 이용자의 혀에 타격을 가할 것이다. 장애인은 실패할 권리가 있고, 실패 또한 자립생활의 한 부분이다.

미리 식재료를 준비해 둔 탓일까? 장보기와 밑손질 시간이 들지 않으니 비교적 빠르게 떡볶이가 완성되었다. 집들이에 참석할 다수의 인원을 생각해 양이 아주 푸짐하다. 요리를 마치자 때마침 핸드폰에서 메시지가 왔음을 알리는 소리가 난다. 비보다. 집들이 참석 인원 중 한 명이 아파 다른 날로 집들이 일정을 수정하겠다는 소식이다.

이용자는 난감한 표정을 짓는다. 이 많은 음식을 어떡할지 고민이다. 잠시간 고민을 하더니 어머니에게 가자고 한다. 어차피 떡볶이 양이 많아 버리게 될 것이 뻔하니 어머니에게 가져다주자고 한다. 장콜을 부르고, 기다리고, 차가 오고, 짐을 싣고, 어머니 집으로 간다.

어머니 집에 가니 이용자의 동생도 있다. 이 궁중 떡볶이는 누가 했냐고 묻는다. 이용자가 옆에서 "내가 했다."고 말한다. 동생이 비릿한 웃음을 짓는다. 몇 개 집어 먹더니 맛이 없다고 말한다.

이용자와 나는 다시 이용자의 집으로 돌아왔다. 집에 남아있는 궁중떡볶이를 같이 먹는다. 양념이 조금 밍밍한 편이나 썩 나쁘지는 않다. 떡볶이를 먹으며 하루를 돌아본다. 장애인이용자는 요리를 자신이 했다고 주장하기 위해 요리의 절차를 고민하고 숙지하고 있었다. 그리고 온전히 자신이 했다고 주장하기 위해서인지 노동의 배분 때문인지 모르겠으나 전체 과정을 여럿의 활동지원사에게 분배했다. 과정이 세분화 될 수록 활동지원사는 전체 과정에서 자신의 기여분을 주장하기 어려워질 것이다. 아이폰 뒷면의 문구를 변용하자면 궁중떡볶이 뒷면에는 이렇게 쓰일 수도 있지 않을까. Designed by 장애인 김모씨 in Korea, Processed by 김모씨의 활동지원사들. 동생이 맛이 없다 하던 그 말도 떠오른다. 나는 이 평가로부터 자유로운가. 자유로우면 좋은 것인가. 그 자유는 자유인가 소외인가.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 대체공휴일이 늘어도 변하는 것이 없는 노동자
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10406
• 입력 2023.05.23 17:00

법에선 유급휴일, 행정해석에는 소정근로일이 아니면 무급휴일

2018년 3월 근로기준법 개정으로 민간에서도 관공서공휴일을 유급휴일로 보장하도록 되었다. 해당 조항은 2022년이 되어 5인이상 사업장이면 모두 적용되게 되었다. 고용노동부는 2018년 5월에 개정 근로기준법 설명자료를 배포하였는데, 당시에는 개정이유를 이렇게 설명하고 있다.

○ 우리나라 관공서 등은 「관공서의 공휴일에 관한 규정」에 따라 공휴일을 지정하고 있으나 민간기업의 경우에는 단체협약, 취업규칙 등에 따라 공휴일 휴무 여부가 다른 실정

• 이에 단체협약, 취업규칙 등에 공휴일 휴무규정이 없는 영세 중소기업 근로자는 명절 연휴와 같은 공휴일을 유급휴일로 보장받지 못해 휴일에 있어서도 불합리한 차별이 존재

○ 따라서, 공휴일에 근로자가 차별 없이 휴식을 취할 수 있도록 공휴일을 근로기준법상 유급휴일로 보장하려는 것임

_ 2018. 05. 고용노동부 발간, 개정 근로기준법 설명자료, 20쪽.

조금 풀어 적자면, 법 개정 이전에는 ▲관공서를 포함해 사업장 규모가 크고 노동조합이 있어, 단체협약이나 취업규칙에 관공서공휴일을 유급휴일로 규정한 사업장은 관공서공휴일을 유급휴일로 쉬고 있었다. ▲반면 영세 중소기업 근로자는 명절 연휴와 같은 공휴일을 유급휴일로 보장받지 못해 휴일에 있어서도 불합리한 차별이 있었다. ▲그래서 관공서공휴일을 유급휴일로 보장하라고 법에 명시를 했다는 것이다.

그런데 중소기업(?) 시간급제 노동자인, 장애인활동지원사들은 법률이 개정되어도 이 법률의 혜택이 오지 않았다. 바로 고용노동부 임금근로시간과-743 행정해석 때문이다. 임금근로시간과-743은 토요일과 같은 비번일·무급휴일이 관공서공휴일과 겹칠 경우, 노동자에게 별도로 유급휴일수당을 더 지급할 필요가 없다고 답한다.

이런 행정해석이 나오자 장애인활동지원기관들은 관공서공휴일에 근무를 하지 말라거나, 급여제공 일정표에 근무를 계획하지 말라는 지시를 했다. 혹여나 근무를 하더라도 평일에 바우처 결제를 하도록 지시하기도 했다. 그리고 관공서공휴일을 ‘소정근로일이 아닌 날’, ‘무급휴일’로 한다는 근로계약과 취업규칙개정을 강행했다. 결국 장애인활동지원사들은 사업주들의 이런저런 조치로 관공서공휴일이 무급휴일로 설정되었고 관공서공휴일을 유급휴일로 누리지 못하게 되었다.

임금의 감소만 없으면 법개정 취지에 반하지 않는다

한편 임금근로시간과-653은 임금근로시간과-743 행정해석에 제동을 거는 새로운 기준을 제시한다. “근무편성시 관공서 공휴일에 근무할 근로자를 고의로 누락 하거나 이날을 제외하는 방법 등으로 유급휴일을 보장하지 않아 법적용 전보다 해당 근로자의 임금이 감소되는 경우라면 이는 법개정 취지에 반한다고 할 것”이라고 말한다. 이 행정해석은 법개정 취지에 반하는 요건을 나열하고 있는데, 사업주가 고의로 유급휴일을 보장하지 않아, 법적용 이전보다 임금이 감소되는 경우로 한정하고 있다. 하지만 이 해석은 이 해석대로 기이하다. 법률 개정으로 유급휴일이 늘어났으면 일을 하지 않아도 임금이 그대로거나, 같은 일을 하면 임금이 늘어야 하는 것이 상식적 결과다. 그런데 임금근로시간과-653에 따르면, 같은 일을 하고도 임금만 줄지 않는다면, 법개정 취지에 반하지 않아 위법하지 않는 경우가 생긴다.

장애인활동지원사들의 경우 사업주의 고의로 유급휴일을 보장하지 않아도, 다른 날에 근무를 더 몰아서 많이 하게 되어 임금의 감소는 발생하지 않을 수 있다. 월급제 노동자의 경우 관공서공휴일 유급휴일을 누리고 다른 대체근무일을 고민하지 않아도 되지만, 장애인활동지원사들은 다른 근무 가능한 요일을 찾아 근무해야 한다. 하지만 최종적으로 임금의 감소는 발생하지 않으니, 임금근로시간과-653의 해석상으로도 위법은 아니다. 743이나 653이나 활동지원사 노동자는 관공서공휴일유급휴일을 보장받기는 어렵다.

이러한 행정해석의 문제는 비단 장애인활동지원사만의 문제가 아니다. 법적용 이후에 근무를 시작하는 노동자의 경우나, 법적용 이후에 생긴 일자리의 경우에 대한 고려가 없다. 이러한 경우는 법 개정 이전에는 근무 자체를 하지 않았으니 비교 대상이 없다. 비교할 대상이 없으니 감소하는 경우에 해당하지 않는다. 결국 사용자는 2개의 행정해석에 힘입어 “관공서공휴일은 소정근로일에서 제외하고, 무급휴일로 한다”는 문구만 근로계약서에 추가하면 관공서공휴일을 무급휴일로 만들 수 있다. 그러고는 산업 자체의 특성 때문에, 관공서공휴일은 일을 할 필요가 없다고 주장할 수도 있겠다. 사회는 빠르게 바뀌고 새로운 산업도 다양하게 생기고 있다. 사업주 입장에서는 이런 식의 근로계약을 체결하는 데에 강력한 유인을 갖는다. 결과적으로 고용노동부가 시간급제 고용을 권장하는 꼴이다. 그리고 여전히 “영세 중소기업 근로자는 명절 연휴와 같은 공휴일을 유급휴일로 보장받지 못해 휴일에 있어서도 불합리한 차별이 존재”하게 된다. 법률을 개정한 이유에 의문을 가질 수밖에 없다. 행정권이 입법권을 덮어버리는 모양새다.

유급휴일의 양극화

2023년, 석가탄신일에도 대체공휴일이 적용되게 되었다. 2023년 석가탄신일은 토요일이고 대개의 직장의 경우 토요일은 무급휴일이므로, 임금근로시간과-743 행정해석에 따르면 유급휴일을 보장하지 않아도 되는 날이다. 그런데 대체공휴일이 도입되었다. 공무원과 월급제 노동자들은 아마도 월요일 유급휴일이 하루 더 늘어났겠지만, 시간급제 노동자들은 무급휴일만 하루 더 늘어났다. 전 정권에서도 현 정권에서도 공휴일은 늘어만 간다. 대체공휴일이 늘어날 때 대통령들과 국무위원들은 토요일이 소정근로일인지를 따지지 않았을 것이다. 2018년 3월 근로기준법 개정안을 통과시킨 국회의원들도 마찬가지였을 것이다. 하지만 정작 노동자의 권리를 보장해야할 고용노동부가 소정근로일을 빌미로 유급휴일을 없애고 있다.

근로기준법은 노동조건의 최저선을 제시하는 법이다. 그런데 그 최저선이 소정근로시간인가 아닌가 하는 사업주의 자의에 의해 휘둘리는게 옳은가? 꼭 장애인활동지원사가 아니라도 "우리는 관공서공휴일 유급휴일은 해당 없다"고 말하는 시간급제 노동자들을 종종 본다. 관공서공휴일 유급휴일 부여에 별다른 조건을 달아서는 안 된다. 평등한 유급휴일 보장을 위해서는 그 수밖에 없다. 고용노동부는 하루빨리 해당 행정해석을 폐기해야만 한다.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• 장애인 인권은 외치지만 차별주의자입니다
• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10379
• 입력 2023.04.26 10:30

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사람들에게는 각자 정의가 미치는 범위, 즉 정의의 범위가 있다. 누구나 정의를 추구하는 것 같지만, 실제로 사람들이 생각하는 정의가 미치는 영역은 한계선이 있다. 어떤 경계를 중심으로 정의의 영역 안에 있는 사람들은 존중받아 마땅하고 공정한 분배가 이루어져야 한다고 생각한다. 하지만 그 영역 밖에 있는 사람들은 적으로 생각되거나 비인간화되고 잔인하게 대해도 된다고 느낀다. 이들은 정의가 관장하는 도덕적 세계 밖에 존재한다.

– 김지혜, 선량한 차별주의자(창비, 2019), 147.

오래된 중재 요청의 기억

전국장애인차별철폐연대(전장연)에는 전국단위 장애인자립생활센터들의 협의체 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회(한자협)가 소속되어 있고, 한자협 소속 장애인자립생활센터 다수가 활동지원사업을 수탁하고 있다. 우리노조는 중앙단위인 전장연, 한자협과 공동사업을 한 기억을 살리며, 노사 갈등에 있어 중재자 역할을 해줄 것을 요청하기도 했다.

2017년 11월 2일, 우리노조와 당시 돌봄지부[^1]는 전장연과 한자협에 공문을 발송했다. 대구지역 전장연 소속단위 활동지원기관 여러 곳이 활동지원사들에게 부당한 임금꺾기를 하여 이에대한 중재를 요청하는 공문이었다. 당시 대구의 활동지원기관들은 노동자가 1시간을 일하면 10분씩을 휴게시간으로 부여했다고 주장하며 노동자들의 근무시간을 축소 산정하고 임금을 삭감했다. 당시 지역언론을 통해 공개된 급여명세서에 따르면, 센터가 복지부에 청구한 결제시간은 138시간이지만 노동자가 받은 임금은 115시간에 해당하는 임금이었다.[^2] 자립생활센터는 정부에게는 138시간 서비스가 제공되었다고 보고하여 138시간에 해당하는 수가를 받고도 노동자들에게는 115시간에 해당하는 임금만을 지급했다. 휴게시간 명목으로 임금을 제했지만, 노동자들에게 실질적인 휴게시간도 보장되지 않았다.[^3] 부당한 처사다. 그런데 당시 대구장애인차별철폐연대(대구장차연)의 정책국장은 기사 말미에서 이렇게 말한다.

“활동보조 서비스가 도입될 때부터 시장화된 서비스로 만들어지면서 이미 예견된 상황이었다. 새 정부가 사회서비스 관련해서 핵심적인 방향을 잡아주면 좋겠다”며 “활동보조인 공공성이 확보될 수 있는 인프라를 만들고, 예산을 확대해 공공서비스 노동자들의 처우 문제 해결에 나서야 한다”

노조의 공문에 대한 전장연과 한자협의 태도는 어땠을까? 아무런 대답도 하지 않았다. 공공운수노조와 해당 사업장 노동자들의 투쟁으로 해당 사안은 국회 및 정부에 전달되었으며 문제가 외화되고 나서야 결국 사업장들은 휴게시간 임금꺾기를 철회하였다.

3월 23일, 한자협의 기자회견

지난 이야기를 언급하는 이유는, 3월 23일에 있었던 한자협 주최 기자회견 때문이다. 한자협은 3월 23일 서울동부지방법원 앞에서 “「시급제 활동지원사 처우」는 보건복지부에 「관공서 공휴일 수당 지급」은 고용노동부에 책임을 물어라!”라는 제목으로 기자회견을 열었다. 3월 23일은 A장애인자립생활센터 관련 민사재판의 첫 공판일이었다. 우리노조는 A센터를 상대로 취업규칙 무효확인과 미지급한 수당을 청구하는 소송을 제기하였는데[^4] 첫 공판이 3월 23일에 있었다.

공판 전인 당일 오전에 누군가를 규탄하기 위해 한자협은 기자회견을 열었다. 기자회견 제목에는 “책임을 물”으라고 되어 있지만, 누구더러 물으라는 것인지 구체적 명시가 없다. 기자회견 보도자료[^5]와 발언[^6]을 잘 살피면, 해당 기자회견이 규탄 대상으로 삼고 있는 사람들은 실질적으로 나를 포함한 원고인 노동자들과 노동조합임을 알 수 있다. A센터에 법적 다툼을 걸지 말고, 노동부나 보건복지부로 가라는 규탄이다.

특별히 2017년의 사건이 떠오른 이유는, 발언 논지의 유사성도 유사성이지만 한자협은 회원사업장의 부정에 대해 방관한 역사가 있으면서도 노조가 대화하지 않고 있다고 노조를 규탄했기 때문이다. “함께 고민하고 연대”하는 것은 얼마나 좋은 말인가? 하지만 이 말도 사실을 왜곡하고 누군가를 억압할 때 쓰일 수 있다는 것을 그날의 기자회견은 보여준다. 2017년의 묵살 이후 우리는 개별 사업장의 분쟁에 대해 개별 사업장 단위로 대응하고 있다. 어쩌면 우리의 중재요청이 한자협을 곤란한 입장에 처하게 하는 것은 아닐까 하는 판단 때문이다. 개별 사업장 단위에서 노조가 대화의 노력을 않는 것도 아니다. 노조는 A센터에 노사협의회를 통해 의견을 제기하고 재직노동자 80명의 연서명을 받아 의견을 제출하였다. A센터 소장으로부터 돌아온 대답은 법대로 하라는 응답과 묵살이었다.

이제 내용을 보자. 이날의 기자회견에서도 2017년 대구장차연 정책국장이 한 발언과 비슷한 논지의 발언이 반복되었다. 정부가 설계한 활동지원제도는 갈등의 소지를 품고 있으며, 이에 대한 책임은 기관에는 없고 정부에만 있다는 식이다. 시장화정책에 대한 문제인식을 표하며 겉으로는 공공성을 추구하는 듯하지만, 실상은 민간위탁기관으로서의 자신들의 책임을 면피하고, 예산지급의 경로 문제를 언급하지 않음으로써 전달체계의 문제를 은폐한다. 결국 자신들에게 예산을 더 내려달라는 요구다.

보도자료를 보자 ▲정부가 노사갈등과 분쟁이 발생하도록 오랫동안 방치해 왔으며 ▲정부는 부처 간 핑퐁으로 구체적인 매뉴얼 또는 취업규칙을 만들어 배포한 적이 없다 ▲활동지원기관은 공익성 사업 활동지원사업을 하고 있고 수익사업을 하지 않으며 ▲노사협의체를 성실히 운영하는데도 악질적인 사업체로 몰아가서 유감이다 ▲A센터 취업규칙 개정은 적법하다는 내용이다. 보도자료의 최상단 박스칸에는 ‘표준 취업규칙 제공’, ‘급여지급 기준 마련’, ‘활동지원급여단가 책정’을 요구하고 있다.

이 모든 사태가 정부의 무한책임이라면, 활동지원기관 무책임의 한계는 어디까지일까.

나도 정부의 무책임에 대해서는 할 말이 많다. 하지만 그렇다고 활동지원기관의 모든 행위에 책임이 없는 것은 아니다. A센터 대리를 맡은 장애인차별금지추진연대(장추련) 자문변호사의 비유[^7]를 이어 말해보자면, 부모가 없는 사이에 아이들이 싸우면, 부모가 돌아와서 그 싸움이 왜 일어났는지에 대한 시시비비를 가리고 아이들을 훈계해야 한다. 그런데 나이가 많은 형이 동생에게 상해를 입히고도 그 책임은 부모가 방기한 탓이라고 말하면 그 말이 설득력이 있을까. 자신을 훈육하는 부모에게 그런 말을 한다면, 혹은 맞은 동생에게 그렇게 말한다면 그걸 그대로 받아들일 수 있을까.

활동지원기관들이 정부를 탓하는 자기정당화 발언은 오래되었다. 노동자의 노동권을 주장하는 모든 시도에 활동지원기관들은 정부를 탓했다. 2017년의 사례에서 노동자의 노동시간을 꺾고 중간에서 이득을 취하는 행위를 정부가 시킨 것은 아니다. 기관이 자신들의 운영이 어려운 사정에 대해 노동자들에게 고통을 전가한 행위일 뿐이다. 한자협 기관이 아닌 활동지원기관들의 사례도 나열해보자. 재정적 여유가 있음에도 활동지원사에게 임금채권포기각서를 강요한 사업장에서도, 정당한 임금을 요구한 노동자들을 해고한 사업장에서도, 성추행 피해 노동자에 대한 보호를 요구했던 사업장에서도, 결국은 정부의 책임이라고 말하며 노동자의 권리를 외면했다. 그러면서 그들은 말한다. “이 문제는 함께 해결해가야 할 문제”라고. 하지만 그 속에 자신들의 책임은 없다. 기자회견 사회를 본 한자협 국장의 말대로 아무런 책임이 없는 “하청 업체”일 뿐이라면, 활동지원기관의 존재의의는 어디에 있는가. 활동지원사 노동자의 권리는 어디까지 포기해야 하는가.

A센터는 법 적용시기인 2021년부터 2022년까지 관공서공휴일유급휴일수당을 전혀 지급하지 않았다. 법 적용시기 이전부터 수당을 지급해야 하는 것 아니냐 의견을 주었음에도 지급하지 않았다. 센터 운영이 어렵다는 이유였다. 이 부분은 법률 및 행정해석에 대한 입장 차가 있더라도 명백한 불법이다. 한자협에서 주장하는 해석을 적용한다고 하더라도, 전혀 지급하지 않았기에 임금체불이 있는 것이다. 그러고는 지급을 회피하기 위해 2021년 12월에 취업규칙을 개정했다. 이 모든 행동을 정당화하기 위해 A센터가 하는 말은 다른 여러 활동지원기관이 말하듯이 정부가 예산을 충분히 주지 않아 센터 운영이 어려워 어쩔 수 없다는 말이다.

하지만 A센터 홈페이지에 공개된 총회 자료를 살펴보면 재정 상황이 나쁘지 않았다. 2022년 총회자료에서 회계감사는 “활동보조인 중개사업의 수익금액 증가에 기인”하여 1억4천의 이익이 발생했다고 말하고, 2023년 총회 자료에서는 A센터가 이사와 인테리어에 3억5천을 지출한 내용이 나온다. 정부가 예산을 충분히 지급하지 않아 지불 능력이 없다는 핑계는 사업장마다의 개별 회계를 투명하게 공개하여서 확인하면 될 일이다. 법정수당을 지급받지 못함으로써 직접적인 피해를 보고 있는 노동자와 논의를 통해 합의하면 될 일이다. 하지만 A센터 소장은 가장 최근의 노사협의회에서까지, 센터 재정 상황 설명 및 자료를 요청하는 노동자위원에게 공개된 자료만을 ‘알아서’ 보라며 자료를 제공하지도 않았고, 당연히 구체적 상황에 대한 논의를 진행할 수조차 없었다. 이런 소장의 태도가 한자협이 말하는 “노사협의체를 성실히 운영하고 있는 기관”의 태도일까.

이 정도 됐으면 A센터 소장은 자신 사업장 소속 노동자들이 왜 이렇게 화를 내고 있는지 자신의 행동을 돌아보아야 할 것은 아닐까. 그런데 A센터 소장은 끝까지 비겁하다. 한자협을 내세워 기자회견을 하고, 원고를 호명하면서도 자신은 끝까지 익명의 존재로 남아있다. 관심과 지지를 부탁한다는 보도자료의 문구가 무색하게, 어느 사업장인지는 알 수가 없다.

장애인차별금지추진연대의 혐오정치, 차별 발언

3월 23일 기자회견은 여기서 한발 더 나아간다. 장추련 김성연 사무국장과 장추련 자문변호사 김정환 변호사는 활동지원사 노동자들과 노조에 대한 낙인찍기를 시도한다.

이 소송을 제기한 활동지원노조는 현재 다수 발생하고 있는 활동지원사로부터의 인권침해 사건에 대해서는 매우 무심하고 이것과 관련해서 전혀 자정능력을 가지고 고민하고 있지 않으면서 정작 근로조건에 대한 문제만을 계속 이야기해서 …장애인을 이용해서 자신의 이익을 챙기고 있는 많은 활동지원사들의 문제로 계속 상담이 계속되고 있습니다. …저희가 오늘, 이 소송과 관련해서 분명하게 입장을 밝히는 가장 큰 이유중에 하나는 이 문제를 마치 노측과 사측의 문제로 가져가면서 장애인당사자인권에 대해서 얼마나 고민하고 있는지는 전혀 밝히고 있지 않습니다. …

– 장애인차별금지추진연대 김성연 사무국장 발언

근로조건의 개선을 요구하는 그 과정에서 활동지원사분들이 현재 있는 장애인과 관련된 많은 문제에 있어서 장애인과 관련된 어떤 인권침해의 문제라든지 어떤 노조 내부의 자정능력을 가지고 있는지 그러한 부분에 대해서 활동지원 노조의 입장에서 먼저 선제적으로 앞서서 장애인을 위해서 그런 부분을 고려해 주시길 바랍니다.

– 법무법인 도담 김정환 변호사 발언

이 발언들은 마치 소송의 원고들이 장애인 인권침해를 자행하면서 노동조건 개선만을 요구하는 사람처럼 묘사하고 있다. 노동조합은 인권침해를 자행하는 활동지원사들로 구성되어 있으며 이에 대한 자정능력이 없는 집단으로 묘사되고 있다.

무엇보다 문제인 것은 이들의 발언에서 드러나는 인식이 반인권적이라는 사실이다. 장애인에 대한 철저한 인권의식이 ‘노동인권’을 보장받기 위한 조건처럼 말해진다. 장추련에게 묻고 싶다. 자신들만큼 드높은 장애인 인권의식을 갖지 못하면 노동인권 따위는 보장되지 않아도 된다는 입장인걸까. 활동지원사업이 확대되고 있는 만큼이나 현장에서는 별의별 일들이 다 일어난다. 하지만 아무리 현장에서 여러 문제가 일어난다고 해도 개별 행위자를 일반화 범주화하여 낙인찍는 일은 인권에 반한다. 장애인에 대한 사회적 낙인과 차별에 반대한다는 사람들이, 왜 노동조합과 노동자에게는 극우 보수정치인들이나 행할 혐오정치를 하고 있는 걸까.

특별히 강조하고 싶은 부분은 “장애인을 이용해서 자신의 이익을 챙기고 있는 많은 활동지원사들”이라는 표현이다. 활동지원사는 노동자이고 노동자는 사전 그대로 자신의 노동력을 제공하고 그 대가로 받은 임금으로 살아가는 사람을 말한다. 따지고 보면 모든 사회복지 노동자들은 수급자를 이용해 생계를 이어가는 사람들이다. 장애인을 이용하는 활동지원사와 이용하지 않는 활동지원사는 구분되지 않는다. 얼마나 강한 노동강도로 서비스를 제공하면 장애인을 이용하지 않는 것이 되는 걸까. 그것을 판단할 객관적 기준이 있기나 한 건가. 사실은 활동지원사가 하는 일 없이 돈 번다고 생각하고 있는 것은 아닌가.

활동지원사들은 현장에서 서비스를 제공할 때 주변의 이상한 노동혐오적 시선 때문에 이중구속에 빠진 자신의 처지를 한탄하기도 한다. 장애인이용자에게 사무적으로 대하면 돌봄이 소홀하다 비난받고, 장애인이용자에게 성심성의껏 서비스하면 장애인이용자를 이용하기 위해 ‘홀린다’는 소리를 듣는다. 혹자는 ‘빨대를 꽂는다’며 비하한다. 도대체 어쩌라는 말일까? 우리는 모두 누군가의 노동환경이다. 주변인들의 노동혐오적 시선은 활동지원사들이 활동지원 현장 이탈을 결심하게 하는 주효한 이유 중 하나다. 장추련은 활동지원사 없는 세상을 원하는가.

노동조건과 인권의식은 무관할까

그날 장추련 사무국장은 인권침해 행위에 대한 고민 없이 노동조건만을 말한다고 노조를 질타했다. 그런데 노동조건과 인권의식은 무관한가. 활동지원사에게 인권의식이 요구된다는 것은 모두들 동의한다. 그리고 그 인권의식 고취를 위해 활동지원제도는 보수교육을 시행한다. A센터는 보수교육 참여에 대한 임금마저 제대로 지급하지 않는 사업장이었다. A센터는 갈등이 불거지자 2022년 하반기에 뒤늦게 활동지원사들에게 5,760원을 입금하였다. 2021년 보수교육에 대한 임금 보전분이다. 2021년 최저임금은 8,720원이었지만, A센터는 보수교육 참가자시간에 대한 임금을 시간당 8,000원으로 책정하여 지급하였다. 미지급한 720원의 8시간분 임금이 5,760원인 것이다. 이 지급도 관할 지자체의 시정지시를 받고서야 이루어졌다. 그보다 이전의 일은 언급하지 않겠다.

이런 상황에서 노동조건을 주장하는 것은 인권의식 고취를 위해서도 필요한 일이다. 그런데 활동지원사의 처우개선에는 동의한다면서도, 노동조건과 인권의식을 대립시키는 이 같은 발언을 어찌 이해해야 하나. 저들의 사유에서는 이미 노동자들의 인권의식과 노동조건이 함께 가는 것이 아니다. 인권감수성은 그냥 생기는 것이 아니다. 인권감수성 이전에 인권교육이 있어야만 한다. 하지만 우리사회는 사람을 길러내는 과제에 대해 무관심하고, 사람을 싸고 쉽게 쓰고 버리려는 풍토가 만연해 있다. 그리고 A센터도 그 혐의로부터 자유롭지 않다.

싸우는 노동자 설요한을 상상하며

나는 그날의 기자회견 이후 설요한을 다시금 떠올리며 생각하게 된다. 언론에 보도된 대로 장애인자립생활센터에서 동료상담가로 일하던 뇌병변장애인 설요한은 실적압박에 못 이겨 스스로 목숨을 끊었다. 자립생활센터가 실적을 못채우면 정부로부터 지원받은 금액을 환수당해야 했기 때문이다. 한자협은 이런 식의 제도를 만든 고용노동부가 설요한을 죽였다고 주장하며 제도의 개선을 이뤄냈다. 하지만 나는 요즘 그런 상상을 해본다. 설요한이 살아와 나에게 노동상담을 한다면 그 상황에서 나는 어떤 이야기를 해줄 수 있을까.

나는 먼저 장애인인권운동 동료상담가들이 그러하는 것처럼, 장애를 당신 개인의 탓으로 돌리지 않을 것이다. 당신에게 비장애인만큼의 생산성을 요구하려면 장애의 사회적 모델에 근거해서 그만큼의 지원이 더 있어야만 한다고 말해줄 것이다. 그리고 한 발짝 더 나아가 노동자 일반에게 해줄 수 있는 조언을 해줄 것이다. 사업장이 정부와 맺은 계약은 도급계약으로 보이고, 당신이 자립생활센터와 맺은 계약은 근로계약이라고. 사업장은 계약을 수행하지 못하면 대가를 받지 못하는 것이 맞지만, 근로계약은 어떤 업무의 완성이 임금의 조건이 아니라, 그저 근로를 제공하기만 하면 임금채권이 발생하는 것이라고. 그리고 당신의 임금은 당신의 실적과 무관한 당신의 생존권이고, 그 임금을 빼앗는 것은 불법 부당한 행위라고 말해줄 것이다. 그리고 어쩌면 기 지급된 월급의 환수를 요구하는 장애인자립생활센터에 맞서는 법정 투쟁을 지원할지도 모른다. 나는 설요한을 옥죈 논리가 활동지원사 노동자들을 억압하고 있다고 느낀다. 설요한이 죽은 그 자리가 사업주들로 구성된 한자협의 자리보다, 나의 자리에 가깝다고 느낀다.

인권을 주장하는 것을 자신의 삶으로 여기는 활동가도 충분히 반인권적인 차별주의자일 수 있다. 나는 저들의 정의로움을 의심하지 않는다. 다만, 저들이 주장하는 ‘인간’의 범주에는 진보적 장애인 인권운동의 자장 아래에 있는 사업장에서 일하는 노동자들이 포함되어 있지 않다. 이 노동자에는 비장애인뿐만 아니라 장애인 또한 포함되어 있어서, 그 예외성이 자신의 정체성을 좀먹을 정도다. 진보적 장애인 인권운동이라 해서 노동인권의 성역은 아니다. 나는 이들의 논리가 하루빨리 논파될 수 있도록, 장애인에 대한 최저임금 적용 제외가 하루빨리 철폐되길 바라며, 장애인일자리도 확대되길 바란다.

[^1]: 당시 민주노총 공공운수노조 의료연대본부 돌봄지부. [^2]: 뉴스민, 장애인의 삶과 동행하는 우리가 당당했으면, https://www.newsmin.co.kr/news/21569/, 2017-06-21. [^3]: 앞 기사 내용 중 장애인이용자 정경애 씨의 발언을 주목하라. “중개기관이 근무시간에서 휴게시간을 빼는데, 만약 휴게시간을 제가 주지 않는다면 이 뜻은 제가 활동보조인의 노동을 착취했다는 것으로밖에 볼 수 없는 거잖아요”. 이러한 갈등은 현재에도 이어지고 있다. 지역의 일부 활동지원기관들은 활동지원사에게 휴게시간을 ‘준수’하라고 강요하고 있는데, 현장에서는 정작 실질적인 휴게시간 권리를 보장받지 못해 고통스러워하는 노동자들이 많다. 근로기준법상 휴게시간은 사용자의 지배-개입으로부터 벗어나 자유롭게 사용할 수 있는 시간을 실질적인 휴게시간으로 보고 있는데, 실질적인 휴게시간이 아니면 노동시간으로 여겨지고 이에 대한 임금을 지급하지 않으면 임금체불이 된다. 그런데도 노동자들에게 휴게시간을 ‘준수’하라며 사용자들이 들볶고 있다. ‘권리’가 ‘준수’라는 명목으로 강요되는 것은 이상한 상황이다. 이 준수를 강요하는 주체가 누구고 대상이 누구인지를 주목해서 보아야 한다. 노동자에게 휴게시간을 부여해야 할 의무가 사업주에게 있고, 이를 부여하기 위해서 대체인력을 투입하거나 서비스를 제공할 수 없는 사정은 사업주의 사정이다. 그런데 이런 사정에 대해서 장애인이용자에게 양해를 구하는 것이 아니라, 노동자에게 강요하고 있다. 활동지원현장에서의 권력 위계를 엿볼 수 있는 하나의 예이다. [^4]: 전국활동지원사노동조합 보도자료, [기자회견] 취업규칙 무효 확인 소송, https://cafe.daum.net/paspower/4Pq3/400, 배포 일자 2022-08-10. [^5]: 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회 보도자료, 「시급제 활동지원사 처우」는 보건복지부에 「관공서 공휴일 수당 지급」은 고용노동부에 책임을 물어라!, 배포 일자 2023-03-22. [^6]: 그날의 발언은 장추련 유튜브 채널에서 다시 볼 수 있다. 장애인차별금지추진연대, 「시급제 활동지원사 처우」는 보건복지부에~「관공서 공휴일 수당 지급」은 고용노동부에 책임을 물어라! 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회 기자회견, https://www.youtube.com/live/qJC3W_5Oeg4, 2023-03-23. 기자회견 보도자료와 발언내용은 https://dqj.notion.site/dqj/2023-03-23-744ef95b8c4a4857b0ebdeb556019d97 참고. [^7]: 법무법인 도담 김정환 변호사는 그날의 연대발언에서 “마치 부모가 아이들을 방임해 놓았는데, 아이들끼리 싸우고 있는 것을 아이들 책임으로만 돌리는 그런 상황이 연출되고 있습니다.”라고 말했다.

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• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10338
• 장애인활동지원사 성폭력 피해와 대책
• 입력 2023.03.16 18:07

활동지원사 성폭력 피해가 드러나기 어려운 이유

활동지원서비스를 받는 장애인이용자는 남성이 60.51% 여성이 39.49%로[^1] 남성이 더 많다. 활동지원서비스를 제공하는 활동지원사의 경우 여성이 87.85%로 대다수를 차지한다.[^2] 그래서 남성 장애인이 여성 비장애인에게 서비스받는 일이 많다.

우리 사회는 아직 장애인을 성적 주체로 인정하지 않는다. 나아가 장애인은 무성애자일 것이 강요된다. 장애인 당사자들도 이런 사정이 괴롭다고 호소하기도 한다. 성적 주체로 인정되지 않다 보니, 소극적 차원에서의 (성적)사생활조차 보장받지 못한다. 노인 비장애 남성에게는 "숟가락 들 힘만 있어도…."라는 우스갯소리가 있지만, 장애인에게 설사 숟가락 들 힘이 있다고 할지라도 그런 종류의 조롱마저 허락되지 않는다.

한편, 성적 주체성에 대한 불인정은 성적 주체로서 행할 폭력의 가능성에 대한 불인정이기도 하다. 장애인활동지원사 성폭력 피해에 대책을 요구하는 자리에서 복지부 담당 공무원이 "아니 장애인이 어떻게 성폭력을 해요?"라고 물었다는 사실은 우리끼리는 반복해서 곱씹는 술자리 안줏거리다. 이런식의 인식이 만연하다 보니, 성폭력 피해 활동지원사들은 자신의 피해사실을 말하기가 두렵다.

장애인을 무성애자로 간주하는 사회일반의 잘못된 인식이 꼭 작동하지 않더라도, 장애는 중요한 요소로 고려될 수밖에 없다. 활동지원사 당사자가 장애인이 성폭력을 저지른 것 아니냐는 질문, 고충토로, 상담요청을 하면 당장 나부터도 장애특성으로 인한 것인지 아닌지를 먼저 따지게 된다. 피해자 중심주의나, 당사자의 불쾌감보다 장애인의 장애 특성으로 인한 불가피성이 우선 검토된다. 피해자 입장에서는 주관적 불쾌감이 있어도, 성폭력을 정당화하는 여러 요소 중에 '장애'가 하나 더 생기는 것이다.

성폭력 문제를 다루는 데에는 전문성이 필요하고, 장애인 관련 사안을 다루는 데에도 전문성이 필요하다. 양자를 두루 함께 고민하기는 쉬운 일이 아니다. 한 조합원은 우리 노동조합에 오기 전, 다수의 여성단체에 자신의 피해에 대한 상담을 받았는데, 상담자가 장애에 대한 이해가 낮아 곤란했던 경험을 말하기도 했다. 한 단체에서는 부정수급이나 장애인 인권 의식 수준에 대한 지적을 받았다고 했다. 이 말을 듣는 순간 이것도 2차 가해의 일종이 아닌가 하는 의문이 들었다. 피해자에게 순결성과 피해자다움을 강요하는 것도 2차 가해의 범주에 해당하니 말이다.

여성 활동지원사는 87.85%고 40대 이상 여성 활동지원사는 84.13%, 50대 이상 여성 활동지원사는 68.20%이다. 성비 불균형 문제뿐만 아니라, 노동자들이 고령이기도 하다. 활동지원사 중에는 기혼자들도 많다. 성폭력 피해 고통을 호소하는 활동지원사 중에는 남편이 이성에게 서비스 들어가는 사실 자체를 모르고 있다며, 그러한 사실이 알려져서는 안 된다며 사건을 묻어버리기도 했다. 지원하는 자, 신고받는 자, 주변의 사람, 누구 하나 쉽게 믿을 수 없는 상황에서 성폭력 피해를 당한 활동지원사들은 그냥 입을 다무는 것을 선택하는 경우들이 많다. 서비스를 계속 들어갈 수는 없고, 수입이 끊긴 채 방치되고 현장을 떠나는 경우가 일반적인 수순이다.

활동지원사 성폭력 피해 산재승인 소식

그런 와중에 성폭력 피해를 당한 활동지원사가 산재승인을 받았다는 기적같은 소식이 들려온다. 우리노조는 피해자를 사건발생 몇 달이 지나서야 알게 되었다. 당시 피해자는 경찰에 신고했고 조사까지 받았다고 했다. 어떻게 그런 용기를 냈냐는 질문에, 피해자는 이렇게 말했다.

"센터에 가장 먼저 전화했는데요. 기다리라고 하고는 1시간이 지나도록 별 소식이 없더라고요. 센터에서 꼼짝 말고 기다리라고 해서, 그 집 다른 곳에서 기다리고 있었거든요. 그런데 너무 무서워 더는 견딜 수가 없어 경찰에 전화했어요. 열쇠로 문 열고 들어올 것만 같았어요."

어쩌면 전담인력이 조금만 빨리 왔더라도 경찰신고는 없었을지도 모른다. 그렇다면 당연히 판결도 없었을 것이고, 산재승인이라는 결과도 없었을지 모른다. 근로복지공단은 판결이 나오고 나서야 피해사실에 대한 인과관계를 인정하며 산재승인 결정을 내렸다. 피해자도 2차가해는 두렵다. 주변에서 말이 돌까봐 공무원에게조차 자신의 집을 선뜻 밝히지 못했다. 그러한 두려움을 감수하고 경찰에 도움을 요청할 수밖에 없을만큼 피해자는 기관의 방치에 내몰렸다.

피해자더러 범죄장소에 머물라는 이상한 지시. 결국 사건발생 2시간이나 지나서야 등장한 전담관리인력은 왜 경찰에 신고했냐 다그치며 피해자에게 가해자와의 3자 면담을 요구했다. 결제를 못해서 수익이 줄게 생겼다는 걱정섞인 말을 건내는 것은 덤이다.

피해자는 사건 이후 정신과 치료를 장기간 받았지만, 사업주는 고용노동부에 산업재해 발생을 보고하지도 않았고, 피해자에게 산재 신청 절차도 알리지 않았다. 피해자는 일거리가 끊겨 수입이 없는 상태로 어렵게 병원을 다녔다.

노조를 알게 된 피해자가 긴 시간이 흘러서야 산재를 신청했다. 사업주는 노조와 면담을 하고서야 사건을 관할 지자체에 보고했다. 피해자는 노조의 지원을 받아 유급휴가를 부여하지 않은 점에 대해 노동청에 진정을 넣었다. 그러자 사업주는 계약종료를 통보했다.

가해자의 유죄판결과 피해자의 산재승인은 기뻐할 일이지만, 사건 과정에서 보인 활동지원기관의 태도는 '비영리 단체' 혹은 '사회적 기업'[^3]이라고 생각하기에는 끔찍한 수준이었다. 낮은 성 인지 감수성은 물론이거니와 최대한 노동자에게 지출되는 비용을 줄이기 위해 안간힘을 쓰는 자본가의 태도와 별반 다르지 않았다.

노조가 정부에 요구하는 대책

우리노조는 장애인이용자의 성폭력 가해 사건에 대한 대책을 정부에 요구해왔다. 요구한 내용은 △사건 전담인력이 숙지해야 할 매뉴얼 마련 △피해자 유급병가ㆍ상담치료 예산 책정 △지자체에 신고ㆍ상담센터 설치 △사건접수 시 보고의무 강화 △가해(이용)자 교육을 정부가 담당 △가해자에게 동성 활동지원사 파견 등이다.

해당 사건에서도 볼 수 있듯이 전담인력의 대응이 전문적이지 않다. 전담인력이 전문성을 가질 수 있도록 매뉴얼을 만들고 보급할 필요가 있다.

또 피해자들이 아무런 지원을 받지 못한 채 현장을 떠나는 경우가 많다. 분리 조치만 취해진 채, 수입이 없어 불안한 시간을 보내게 된다. 피해자를 지원하기 위해서 유급병가와 상담치료 예산을 정부가 책정해야 한다.

활동지원사들은 가해자가 기관을 옮겨 다니면서 서비스 받고 또 다른 가해를 저지르는 경우들이 있다고 말한다. 정부에 보고의무를 강화해 정부가 사례를 수집하고 접수된 가해이용자에 대해서 정부가 직접 교육을 시행해야 한다.

충격적인 것은 활동지원기관이 가해자로 지목된 장애인이용자에게 또다시 이성 활동지원사를 파견한다는 점이다. 해당사건에서 가해자는 실형을 선고받기 직전까지 이성으로부터 서비스를 받았다. 노조가 개입한 다른 사건에서 한 활동지원기관의 장은 또다시 이성을 매칭시킨 것을 항의하는 노조에게 '이성에게 서비스를 받는것도 장애인의 선택권' 이라고 항변했다. 장애인의 선택권은 무한한가. 가해자에게는 동성활동지원사를 파견하도록 강제해야 한다.

피해자가 호소해도 변함없는 정부

사건 피해자는 작년 "나와 같은 피해자가 없기를 바란다"며 복지부를 직접 방문해 대책 마련을 요구했다. 하지만 2023년 새로운 지침이 발간되었지만 아무런 변화가 없었다. 어떻게 정부가 이렇게 무책임할 수 있을까? 우리는 그 원인을 민간위탁과 바우처 제도를 꼽는다. 민간에 사업을 위탁하고 모든 책임을 전가한 채, 정부는 방치할 뿐이다.

우리는 다시 공공성 확보를 요구할 수 밖에 없다. 노동자가 성폭력을 당해도 방치되는 일터는 공공성이 결여된 사회서비스 전달체계의 필연적 결과다. 정부가 직접 서비스를 제공하면 이런 상태로 남아있을수가 없다. 성폭력은 권력과 위계의 문제다. 노동이 존중받는 사회에서 직장내 성폭력은 줄어들 수밖에 없다. 노동자가 천시받는 상태로 내버려두는 정부가, 성폭력이 만연한 사회서비스를 만든다. 정부가 책임지고 직접 서비스 제공하라.

[^1]: 우리노조가 2020년에 기초지자체를 대상으로 정보공개청구를 하여 취합한 바로는 정보부존재 외에 장애인이용자의 성별에 대한 정보가 있는 경우는 남성 47,591명(60.51%), 여성 31,060(39.49%)명이었다. [^2]: 2021년 5월 사회보장정보원 전산자료 기준. 자료출처 보건복지부 장애인서비스과. [^3]: 장애인활동지원사업기관으로 지정받기 위해서는 '공공ㆍ비영리 법인 및 단체'이거나, 특별한 경우에 한해 '사회적기업'일 경우에 지정받을 수 있다.

@ edeb837b:ac664163

What is Social Trading?

Social trading is a revolutionary approach to financial markets, leveraging the power of community and technology to democratize trading and investing. Unlike traditional trading, where individuals make isolated decisions based on personal research and analysis, social trading allows users to observe, interact, and replicate the trading activities of others. This communal approach not only opens up financial markets to novices but also creates a collaborative environment where traders of all levels can learn and grow together.

The Core Concept of Social Trading

At its core, social trading is about transparency and connectivity. It transforms the solitary act of trading into a collective endeavor, where information, strategies, and experiences are shared openly within a community. This is facilitated through platforms that provide real-time access to the trading activities of others, enabling users to follow successful traders, copy their trades, and gain insights into market trends.

Key Elements of Social Trading:

1. Trade Sharing: Traders share their trades with the community in real-time, providing insights into their strategies and market movements.
2. Copy Trading: Less experienced traders can automatically replicate the trades of successful investors, benefiting from their expertise without needing deep market knowledge.
3. Community Interaction: Platforms often include features like discussion forums, leaderboards, and social media integration to foster interaction and learning.

The Rise of NVSTly: The Best Platform for Social Trading

What Sets NVSTly Apart?

Among the plethora of social trading platforms, NVSTly stands out as a premier choice for several reasons. It combines a user-friendly interface with robust features, making it an ideal platform for both novice and experienced traders. Here’s why NVSTly is the best platform for social trading:

1. Completely Free: Unlike many other platforms that impose a paywall, NVSTly is completely free. Users can sign up and access all features without any cost, making it accessible to everyone.
2. Cross-Platform Availability: NVSTly is available on both web browsers and mobile devices (iOS and Android). This flexibility ensures that users can trade and interact with the community anytime, anywhere.
3. Unique Discord Integration: NVSTly is the only social trading platform fully integrated with Discord. Through a unique bot, users can perform almost all actions on NVSTly directly through Discord, enhancing community interaction and ease of use.

NVSTly’s Standout Features

NVSTly offers a comprehensive suite of features designed to enhance the social trading experience:

• Real-Time Trade Tracking and Sharing: Users can track, share, or copy trades in real-time. Each position comes with extensive insights and performance stats.
• Multi-Market Support: NVSTly supports trading in stocks, options, and over 25 cryptocurrency exchanges, with plans to include futures and forex markets soon.
• Trade Insight UI: Every trade has a dedicated UI showing all events (open, average, trim, exit) along with real-time asset data and a unique POV chart marking key trading points.
• Global Trades Feed: A real-time feed showing all trades submitted by users. It includes filters to show trades from specific traders, top trades, or specific tickers.
• Global Leaderboards: Rankings of top traders for each market or combined markets, allowing users to follow and learn from the best.
• Real-Time Notifications: Follow any trader and receive notifications of their trades in real-time.
• Brokerage Integration: Automated tracking and sharing of trades executed within the broker, with cryptocurrency exchange integration coming soon.
• Automated Signals and Sharing: Trades can be shared instantaneously to social media and Discord.
• Future Goals: NVSTly aims to implement 1-click copy trading, simplifying the process even further.
• Trader Dashboards: In-depth performance stats for each trader, including trade history, win rate, total gain, average gain/loss/return, highest winning trade, and more.

Why NVSTly is Ideal for Social Traders

NVSTly's blend of comprehensive features, accessibility, and unique integrations makes it the ultimate platform for social trading. Whether you’re a beginner looking to learn from seasoned traders or an experienced investor seeking to share your insights and grow your following, NVSTly provides the tools and community to achieve your goals.

The platform’s commitment to being free and its integration with popular communication tools like Discord highlight its user-centric approach. By fostering a supportive and interactive environment, NVSTly not only enhances trading success but also builds a vibrant community of traders who can thrive together.

In conclusion, NVSTly redefines social trading by combining cutting-edge technology with a robust community framework. Its extensive features and unique integrations position it as the leading platform for anyone looking to engage in social trading. Sign up today and experience the future of trading with NVSTly.

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NVSTly is available for free on web, mobile devices (iOS & Google Play), and is fully integrated with Discord via a unique bot- the only of it's kind and available to any server or trading community on Discord. Or feel free to join a community of over 45,000 investors & traders on our Discod server.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• https://cms.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10299
• 전장연과 서울시 구도에서 은폐되는 것
• 입력 2023.02.16 16:35

전장연과 보수정치인들

얼마 전 2월 2일, 오세훈 서울시장과 박경석 전국장애인차별철폐연대(이하 전장연) 대표의 면담이 있었다. 해당 면담에 관해 필자의 SNS에서는 이에 대한 평들이 있었다. SNS 타임라인을 구성한 필자의 편향성 덕분에, 전장연을 옹호하고 서울시를 비판하는 내용 일변도였다. 이 논란 중에 장애인활동지원예산 관련한 글들이 눈에 보였다. 이준석 전 대표가 썰전에서 한 발언, 김상한 복지정책실장의 발언에 대한 반박이 반복되면서, 나는 이미 시장화된 사회서비스 분야에 대한 문제인식이 은폐되고 노동자를 억압하는 논리가 다시 확산되고 있다고 느꼈다.

이준석 전 대표와 김상한 복지실장의 말을 보자.

이준석: 탈시설 예산을 늘리면 그 돈이 어디로 갑니까? ... 탈시설 추진하는 시민단체나 아니면 사회단체로 가는 것 아닙니까? 집행기관이 거기잖아요. ... 장애인들에게 전달되기까지 그 과정 중에서 사업을 수행하는 기관들이 그 돈을 가져가잖아요.

2022년 5월 12일 JTBC썰전 라이브

과연 그게 24시간 활동보조를 붙여서 자립생활하는 것이 정말 장애인을 위한 것이냐 아니면 활동보조인력을 위한 것이냐. 아니면 활동보조서비스를 제공하는 그 단체를 위한 것인지에 대해서 여러 의구심들을 제시하는 의견들이 또 있습니다. 심지어는 활동보조서비스를 제공하는 기관에서 25% 수수료를 가져가는 그것 때문에 혹시 그 재정여건을 개선시키기 위해서 탈시설을 강조하는 거 아니냐 의구심이 있거든요.

서울시 김상한 복지정책실장 발언. 출처: 비마이너, [전문] 전장연-오세훈 단독 공개 대담 녹취록, < https://www.beminor.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=24563 >, 2023.02.02.

이 두 발언을 이어서 풀어보자면 "활동보조서비스를 제공하는 기관에서 25% 수수료를 가져가는 그것 때문에 혹시 그 재정여건을 개선시키기 위해서 탈시설을 강조하는 거 아니냐 의구심이 있"고, 그 돈이 "탈시설 추진하는 시민단체나 사회단체로 가는 것"아니냐는 의심이다. 이를 반론하기 위해 장애인언론 비마이너와 넓게 진보적 장애인 인권운동의 자장에 있는 사람들은 ▲장애인활동지원사업은 수익사업이 아니고 남는게 없으며 ▲시민사회단체. 즉, 전장연으로 돈이 흘러갈 리가 없다고 주장하고 있었다.[^1]

필자는 전장연이 주장하는 탈시설 이념에 동의한다. 노인장기요양분야에서도 지역사회계속거주 이념(Aging in place)이 실현되기를 바란다. 또 김상한 실장과 이준석 전 대표가 과장하듯이 탈시설 예산 전부가 전장연으로 흘러들어간다고 생각하지는 않는다. 그리고 전장연이 단순히 수수료 몇 퍼센트를 먹기 위해 투쟁을 하고 있다고 생각하지도 않는다. 하지만 그에 반론하여 말하듯 활동지원사업이 수익사업이 아니며, 전장연으로 돈이 전혀 흘러가지 않는다고 생각하지도 않는다.

장애인자립생활센터의 유일한 수익사업 활동지원사업

필자는 장애인자립생활센터에서 근무하고 있다. 이 센터는 활동지원사업을 기초지자체로부터 수탁받아 사업을 진행하고 있다. 전장연에 소속된 여러 단체들의 회원센터이기도 하다. 나는 한때 활동지원사업 운영위원(활동지원사분)이기도 했고, 노사협의회 노동자위원이기도 하다. 그리고 공교롭게 박 대표는 해당 센터의 운영위원이다.[^2]

필자는 센터와 현재 분쟁중에 있다. 당사자로서 체불임금과 관련한 노동청 진정을 제기하였으며 해당 사건은 검사의 기소의견이 법원에 전달되어 있다. 필자가 센터와 싸움을 결심하게 된 이유는 활동지원사를 소외시키고 도구화하는 센터의 행태에 배신감을 느꼈기 때문이다. 센터는 활동지원사들(시간급제 노동자들)의 수당을 삭제하는 취업규칙 개정을 강행하면서 노동자들에게 '개정된 근로기준법이 반영된 것'이라는 거짓말을 하고 서명을 받았다. 운동단체답게 평소에는 장애인과 노동자가 연대해서 투쟁해야 한다는 말을 하며 노동자들의 열악한 노동조건에 대한 책임을 정부로 돌렸지만, 노동조합이 투쟁해온 경과는 무시한 채, 정보약자인 노동자들을 기망하며 노동조건을 후퇴시키고 사업주로서의 법적 권한만을 강조했다.

그렇게 취업규칙을 개정하고 얼마 후에 층이 4개인 건물로 이사를 할 계획을 세웠다. 본인이 입사할 때는 2개의 사무실을 사용하는 작은 센터였다. 노사협의회에서 필자는 공간유지비용이 어떻게 마련되는지를 물었다. 센터는 이에 대해 설명하지 않았다. 본인은 공간유지비용이 센터가 수행하는 여러 사업에 의해 합리적으로 배분되어야 하는 것 아니냐고 주장했다. 활동지원사업과 무관한 사업의 공간이용비용으로 활동지원사업 수익금을 사용하는 것이 정당화될 수는 없다고 생각했기 때문이다.[^3] 이에 센터장은 타 사업에서는 공간운영비용이 나오지 않으며, 그 비용을 사업별로 분담하라는 주장은 사실상 사업을 하지 말라는 말과 같다고 항변했다. 센터의 유일한 수익사업은 활동지원사업이라고 주장했다.

공간뿐만이 아니었다. 활동지원사업 수익금으로 전장연 관련 단체 회비가 지출되었다. 제세공과금 명목이었다. 서울장애인차별철폐연대, 한국장애인자립생활센터협의회, 서울장애인자립생활센터협의회, 전국장애인야학협의회, 장애해방 열사 단, 박종필추모사업회, 피플퍼스트. 그 수가 많았다. 이 각종 단체들에 대해 활동지원사업과의 관련성을 얼마나 인정해야 할지는 각자의 판단이 있을터이다. 사업을 수탁한 기초지자체에 민원을 제기하였고, 일부는 사업과의 관련성이 인정되지 않아, 이제 앞으로 그렇게 하지 말라는 '시정지시'가 뒤늦게 있었다.

센터가 수탁하고있는 다른 사업분야는 필자도 잘 모른다. 센터가 상세히 설명하지도 않거니와, 센터장이 말하는 대로 믿을뿐이다. 하지만 보조금이라서 전혀 쓸 수 없다는 말을 쉽게 할 수 있을 정도로 활동지원사업이 단순하지는 않다. 센터 운영에 있어 의사결정 권한이 있는 운영위원들은 대부분 전장연 관련인사로 채워져 있다. 특별히 이 센터만을 탓하기 위해 하는 말이 아니라, 수년간 여러 종류의 사업체를 보아도 서로서로가 운영위원이 되어주며 적당히 친한 사람들로 자리를 매우는게 이 업계 풍토라면 풍토다. 관리감독의 책임이 있는 기초자치단체 공무원의 행정능력도 그렇게 꼼꼼하지 않다. 복지부 지침은 양이 많을 뿐만 아니라 공무원의 순환보직으로 매번 숙지되지 않는다. 대부분의 사람들은 센터 내부사정을 잘 알기도 힘들고, 민원을 제기해도 시정이 어렵다.

아무리 전장연 깍아내리기에 대한 반론이라고 하지만 민간위탁으로 점철된 한국의 사회복지사업이 투명하다고 강조하는 것은 거짓말 아닌가. 사회복지분야 회계투명성을 위해 투쟁하고 있는 사람들의 노고를 무시하는 발언이다. 그 말을 하는 사람들은 장애인수용시설사업을 하는 사회복지법인들의 재정이 투명하다고 믿고 있을까.

활동지원사업 수익금의 '일부'는 전장연으로 흘러가는 것이 맞다. 전부 흘러가는것도 아니고 전혀 흘러가지 않는것도 아니고 '일부'는 흘러간다. 그리고 개별행위자들은 그 부스러기 같은 '일부' 때문에 취업규칙을 고치고 노동자들을 기망한다. 한자협 소속 장애인자립생활센터 중, 활동지원사업을 하는 비율은 몇프로나 되는가? 오히려 사업을 수탁하지 않은 자립생활센터를 찾기가 힘들다. 사업을 하지 않는 자립생활센터들도 활동지원사업 수탁을 받고자 안달이다. 이는 활동지원사업을 통해 공간을 마련-유지하고, 자금을 운용할 틈을 만들기 위해서이지 않은가.

최소한의 운영을 위해서건, 공간확보를 위함이건, 회원단체 회비 납부를 위해서건 정부에 의해 수입이 정해진 사업구조에서 활동지원기관이 자금을 확보하기 위한 전략은 노동자들의 노동조건 후퇴이다. 이 과정에서 희생되는 것은 노동자들이다. 그리고 노동자들이 가장 많이 듣는 이야기는 전장연을 위한 반론에서 강조되는 대로 활동지원사업이 '수익사업이 아니다', '남는게 없다'는 식의 주장들이다. 우리노조는 활동지원사업을 수행하는 각종 종교재단, 복지관 등에서 활동지원사 노동권 확보를 위한 투쟁을 이어왔다. 그들이 하는 말도 똑같았다. 노동자들에게 임금채권포기각서를 요구한 사업장 대표가 하는 말도 '정부지원이 부족하다', '남는게 없다', '어쩔 수 없다'였다.[^4] 그리고 정작 사건화되어 검찰이 회계를 요구해 검토하자 그렇게 사정이 나쁘지도 않았다. 전장연을 옹호하는 사람들의 말도 노동자의 노동조건을 후퇴시키고 억압하는 논리를 반복하고 있다.

정부와 서울시의 무책임

탈시설 예산 일부가 전장연으로 흘러들어가는 매커니즘의 바탕에는 결국 시장화된 사회서비스가 있다. 정부의 재정을 투입하면서도 민간위탁 시키면 이윤의 논리가 반영될 수밖에 없다. 결국 이런 구조를 설정하고 있는 것은 정부이고 지자체이다. 다른 활동지원기관들의 재정이용은 투명한가? 활동지원기관 일반의 재정이 어디로 도는지 알 수는 있는가?

활동지원사 입장에서는 활동지원기관을 성장시킨 비용이 어디에서 나오는지 궁금하다. 활동지원기관이 정말로 근로기준법을 지킬 수 없을 정도로 상황이 어려운지 알고 싶다. 하지만 회계자료 요구는 번번히 거절당하고, 운영사정은 설명들을 수 없다. 중앙정부는 활동지원기관의 회계를 확보하지도 못할 뿐만 아니라, 관리감독 권한이 있는 기초지자체는 회계를 입수했다 하더라도 "영업비밀"이라며 공개를 거부한다. 만약 오세훈 서울시장이 시민사회단체로 흘러들어가는 일부분 만이라도 진정으로 문제라 여긴다면 활동지원기관의 회계를 투명하게 유지하고 정부가 관리감독을 잘하면 된다. 오해하지말라. 전장연의 회계가 아니라 정부 수탁사업자로서 활동지원기관의 회계 말이다.

또 다른 방안으로는 민간위탁사업자를 없애고 공공 운영 하여 정부가 직접 서비스를 제공하는 방안이다. 서비스 제공 과정에서 발생하는 손해건 수익이건 정부에게 돌아가도록 하면 된다. 노동자들과 시민사회단체는 시장화된 사회서비스에 문제인식을 느끼고 사회서비스 공적 전달체계로의 개편을 바라며 오랜세월 투쟁해왔다. 그러한 목소리들의 성과가 사회서비스원이다. 서울시사회서비스원 설립 당시 자립생활센터는 "민간기관의 피해"를 걱정하기도 했다.[^5] 서울시사회서비스원이 잘되면, 자신들의 입지가 줄어든다고 판단한 것이다.

사회서비스원의 성과는 우리사회가 코로나19를 겪으며 더욱 두드러지게 드러났다. 민간위탁기관과 대비되게 인력수급이 비교적 안정적인 서울시사회서비스원은 긴급한 상황 긴급하게 인력을 투입할 수 있었다. 직접서비스를 제공하는 돌봄노동자들은 소중한 노동으로 격상되었다. "일상의 영웅"으로 칭송받으며 "필수노동자"라고 칭해지기도 했다. 하지만 윤석열 정부 들어 사회서비스원 전체를 통폐합 하는 기조이고, 서울시로 국한해 보아도 서울시사회서비스원은 축소되고 있다.[^6] 장애인활동지원사업을 제공하던 노원종합재가센터가 폐지되고 성동종합재가센터만 남아 있다. 사회서비스원의 활동지원인력도 줄었다. 놀라운 것은 장애인자립생활센터가 걱정하던 사안을 사회서비스원 대표가 규탄하고 있다는 사실이다.[^7] 오세훈 시장의 보좌관 출신으로 알려진 황정일 대표이사는 오세훈 서울시장이 새로이 임명한 사람이다.

서울시사회서비스원의 축소는 공공운영의 축소이고 민간위탁기관이 활동할 시장의 범위를 더 넓어지게 만드는 처사이다. 서울시가 접던 판도 다시 깔아주면서 노름하지 말라하는 모양새다. 오세훈의 서울시는 여러모로 보아도 전장연을 깍아내릴 자격조차 없다.

사회서비스 공공성 확보하라

활동지원사들은 정부가 예산을 낮게 책정하고, 센터는 정부를 핑계대는 핑퐁게임에 참으로 오랜세월동안 노출되어 왔다. 그 결과는 상시적 고용불안에 노출되어 있으면서도 언제나 최저임금과 근로기준법상 법정수당을 지급받지 못하는 현실이다.

나는 보수정치인들의 전장연 깍아내리기와 그를 방어하는 논쟁의 구도에서 또다시 이 핑퐁게임을 본다. 각자가 그렇게 주장하는 전체적 의도가 왜 없겠는가. 그렇다고 단편적 주장을 무시하면 그것은 그것대로 남아 누군가를 괴롭힐 것이다. 나는 사회서비스 공공성 확보가 중요하다고 주장할 수 밖에 없다. 이 방안만이 노동자와 인력공급에 불안을 느끼는 장애인을 위하는 방안이라고 생각한다. 사회서비스 전달체계 구조에 대한 고민이 절실하다.

[^1]: 비마이너, [탈시설 팩트체크] 탈시설 예산 늘리면 그 돈은 어디로 갈까?, < https://www.beminor.com/news/curationView.html?idxno=23397 >, 2022.05.23. [^2]: 2022년 초 해당 센터 총회자료 기준 [^3]: 보건복지부에서 매년 발간하는 「장애인활동지원사업안내」에서는 수익금을 활동지원인력 인건비로 최우선적으로 사용하도록 하고 있다. [^4]: 해당 사건은 대법원까지 간 끝에 사업주의 유죄가 확정됐다. 최초 문제제기 이후 4년이 걸렸다. 관련기사. 에이블뉴스, “활동지원사 임금포기 확인서 서명 강요 유죄”, < http://www.ablenews.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=87514 >, 2020.03.16. / 매일노동뉴스, “임금포기각서 요구, 거부한 조합원은 초단시간 노동자로”, < http://www.labortoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=203984&fbclid=IwAR3KQ-KWnFsSaIq7D9zkrJXG9foGgtECVNJ0ulxgPTXRIEv_DF4AO1la-oU >, 2021.07.21. [^5]: "사실 사회복지가 공공의 영역에서 국가가 책임지고 가야 하는 방향성은 맞으나, 재가노인요양기관 뿐 아니라 장애인활동지원기관도 운영의 큰 부분을 바우처 사업으로 가져가고 있는 상황에서 자칫 잘못하면, 민과 관의 경쟁구도로, 민간 기관들이 피해를 볼수도 있는 상황이기 때문이다."_장애인자립생활센터 활동지원사업 운영위원회 사업평가 발췌, 2019. [^6]: 2023년 서울시의 사회서비스원 관련 예산은 69억으로 142억원이 삭감되었다. 서울시사회서비스원 유지 자체가 불투명하다. 서울사회서비스원의 노동자 탄압에 대해서는 김호세아, 참여와혁신, "[기고] 서울시사회서비스원 돌봄노동자들 월급도둑 취급은 부당하다", < https://www.laborplus.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=30697 > , 2022.12.22. [^7]: 뉴스인오늘, [인터뷰] 서울시사회서비스원 황정일대표, 여러분은 서울시사회서비스원에 대해 얼마나 알고 계십니까?, < http://www.focus24.co.kr/47715 >, 2023.01.16.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• https://cms.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10273
• 장애인활동지원사 월급 천만원
• 입력 2023.01.17 17:20

“장애인활동지원사가 돈을 많이 번다”는 발화의 이면

종종 활동지원사들이 돈을 많이 번다는 이야기를 듣는 일이 있다. 바로 얼마 전 보건복지부 공무원 면담을 하는데 노조 앞에서 담당 행정사무관이 이렇게 말했다. 장애인에게 24시간 서비스하면서 월 800만 원 소득을 얻는 분들은 다른 건 필요 없고 그냥 계속 그런 식으로 근무하길 원한다고 말이다. 그는 이렇게 말하며 노동조합의 제도 개선 요구를 일축하고 있었다.

이런 종류의 발언은 현장에서도 많이 나온다. 연초다 보니 연말정산을 안내하는 전담인력은 활동지원사에게 이렇게 안내했다 한다. “월 천만 원씩 버시는 분들이 센터 여러 개 하시잖아요. 그러니까….” 설명의 요지는 간단하다. 직장이 여러 곳인 노동자는 원천징수 영수증을 사업장별로 각각 발급받아 제출해야 한다는 내용이다. 그런데 이런 설명을 할 때도 “월 천만 원”이라는 금액이 그 앞에 붙는다.

우리 사회 일반의 노동 인식에는 기대가 없지만, 진보적 장애인 인권운동을 표방하는 이들조차 이런 발언을 쉽게 한다. 노동자들을 지원하면서 경악했던 사건 중 하나는 한 장애인 활동가가 우리 조합원이 일하는 장소에서 활동지원사의 노동을 폄훼해서 벌어진 갈등이었다. 그 활동가는 자신의 발언을 변호하기 위해 “밥 먹고 잠자면서도 돈 버는 거 아니냐”, “천만 원까지 벌 수 있다”, “장애인들이 얼마나 좋은 일자리를 만들어 준 거냐” 같은 이야기가 ‘장판(장애인 인권 운동판)’에서 농담처럼 나오는 이야기라고 주장하는 서신을 제출했다.

활동지원사의 수입이 월 천만 원이라는 말은 어떤 맥락 속에 있는 말이다. 연봉으로 치면 1억 2천. 이것은 그저 누군가가 선망하는 직종의 월수입에 대한 사실을 표현하는 말이 아니다. 그 말의 이면에는 장애인활동지원사 같이 별것도 하지 않는 일에서, 밥 먹고 잠을 자면서도 월 천만 원의 수입이 가능하니, 행정사무관의 태도처럼 정부에 감사하고 군소리를 말던가, 장애인 인권운동가의 태도처럼 그 제도 혹은 좋은 일자리를 만들어낸 진보적 장애인 인권운동에 감사하며 군소리를 말아야 한다는 뜻이 내포되어 있다. 발화자들이 의식하건 의식하지 못하건 이는 우리 사회 일반에 만연한 젠더화된 노동 혹은 돌봄노동에 대한 저평가와 멸시를 반영한 발화이다.

장시간노동이 가능한 조건을 만든 이유가 뭔지 물어야

활동지원사 일반이 월평균 천만 원을 버는 직종은 당연히 아니다. 활동지원사의 월 근무시간은 편차가 크다. 일하는 시간만큼 급여가 발생하는 시간급제 노동자이고, 일할 수 있는 시간도 매칭되는 장애인에 따라 차이가 크다. 급여의 수준보다도 근무시간의 불안정성이 활동지원사에게는 더욱 큰 문제로 다가온다.

2020년 공공운수노조 의료연대본부에서 발간한 “장애인활동지원사 노동·인권 실태 결과”에 의하면 설문에 응한 전업 활동지원사 월 근무시간의 최저값은 10시간이고 최대 597시간으로 편차가 심하다. 조사 당시의 전업 활동지원사 월평균 근무시간은 158.31시간이다. 2022년 수가 기준으로 평균 임금을 계산해보면 175만 원에 해당한다.

편차가 큰 근무시간 분포를 생각하면, 하루 24시간을 한 달 내도록 일하면 월 천만 원의 수입도 가능하긴 하다. 이렇게 근무하는 활동지원사들은 하루 24시간의 근무가 가능하도록 하기 위해 3개의 활동지원기관에 등록하여 근무해야 한다. 8시간의 근무는 A기관에서 근무한 것으로 기록하고, 다음 8시간은 B기관에서, 그 다음의 8시간은 C기관에서 근무한 것으로 기록하는 식이다.

이런 식의 노동형태가 개인의 차원에서도 제도적 차원에서도 추구할만할 노동형태는 아니다. 실제로 장시간 노동을 하는 조합원들은 결국 몸이 아파서 그런 노동을 유지할 수 없는 경우가 많다. 그렇다면 이런 노동형태에 대한 비난을 개별 노동자가 떠맡아야 할 문제일까? 나는 이런 식의 노동형태가 가능한 이유가 무엇인지는 따져 물어야 한다고 생각한다. 애초부터 이런 노동이 가능한 조건을 만들어둔 이유는 무엇인지 물어야 한다고 생각한다.

정부와 기관의 공모, 노동자 권리의 소멸

활동지원사가 센터를 여러 개 등록하는 데에는 정부와 활동지원기관의 암묵적 공모가 있다. 제도 법제화 이전에 활동지원사는 1개의 사업장에만 속할 수 있었다. 활동지원사가 수행한 근무는 모두 한 명의 ‘사장님’ 밑에서 이루어진다. 근로기준법은 사업장을 기준으로 적용되고, 법률상 법정근무시간 8시간을 넘어가는 근무시간은 연장근무수당을 지급해야만 한다. 하지만 활동지원제도가 법제화되면서 활동지원사 또한 여러 기관에 등록할 수 있도록 정부가 규제를 풀었다. 정부의 핑계는 장애인이용자들의 선택권을 보장하기 위해서라고 말했지만, 사실 이런 식의 선택권 보장은 장애인이용자들이 기관을 선택하는 것만으로도 충분히 실현이 가능했다. 이러한 변화의 실체는 노동자의 권리를 찢어 없앨 수 있도록 길을 열어둔 것이다.

활동지원기관들은 소속 활동지원사들의 근무시간을 여러 기관으로 찢어 나누기 시작했다. 활동지원사는 같은 장애인 이용자에게 같은 서비스를 제공하면서도, 여러 곳(활동지원기관)의 소속이 되어야만 했다. 결국, 근무시간은 사업장의 개수만큼 나누어져 계산되었고, 노동자가 더 받아야만 할 법정수당도 사라지게 되었다. 그리고 기관들은 이러한 노동시간 찢기를 자신들과 친한 중개기관들끼리 서로 나누며 진행하였고, 그들은 이러한 연계를 통해 월 서비스 총 시간(곧 수익)은 유지할 수 있었다. 이러한 조치들은 현재에도 활동지원기관들 사이에서 이루어지고 있는 것이 현실이다.

다른 센터가 다른 노동자를 파견하면 활동지원사의 장시간노동도 가능하지 않다. 하지만 문제는 인력을 구하기도 힘들뿐더러 장애인이 원하는 수준의 서비스를 받기가 힘들다는 문제가 있다. 장애인의 입장에서는 자신에게 익숙한 1명의 활동지원사가 계속 서비스해 주기를 바라는 경우들이 있다. 행정사무관도 이런 경우들을 언급했다. 하지만 나는 1명의 활동지원사만을 고집하는 장애인이용자들의 욕구가 인정되어야 한다고 생각하지는 않는다. 그 단 1명의 활동지원사가 아프거나 사고로 인해 근무할 수 없게 된다면, 그 활동지원사에게 의존되어 있던 장애인의 삶은 순식간에 무너질 수도 있기 때문이다. 자립은 의존으로부터의 탈피가 아니라 의존의 선택이자 분산이라고 탈시설 자립생활운동 활동가들은 말한다. 1명의 익숙한 활동지원사가 아니라, 자신이 편안히 서비스 받을 수 있는 여러 명의 활동지원사가 확보되는 것이 장애인 삶의 안정성 측면에서도, 활동지원사의 건강권 측면에서도 올바르다. 다른 활동지원사가 와서 비슷한 수준의 서비스를 제공한다면 장애인이용자는 그 단 1명의 활동지원사를 고집할 이유가 없다.

장애인이 1명의 활동지원사가 계속 서비스를 제공해 주길 바라는 이면에는 장애인 이용자가 바라는 최소 수준의 서비스 정도를 보장할 수 없는 활동지원서비스의 불안정성, 교육시스템의 부재가 바탕하고 있다. 그리고 그 외에도, 24시간 서비스를 제공하는 활동지원사들의 경우 다른 활동지원사들은 엄두 낼 수 없는 압도적인 서비스를 제공하는 경우가 많은데, 특장차를 구매하여 장애인에게 차량서비스를 제공하거나(운수사업법 위반), 석션(의료법 위반) 등 의료서비스를 제공하는 경우가 이에 해당한다. 장애인이 이런 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 활동지원사를 구하는 것은 당연히 어렵고, 대체불가능한 지위에 있는 활동지원사는 장시간노동이 불가피해진다. 이런 경우들도 이동권이 보장되지 않는 현실과 일상적 의료서비스가 제공되지 않는 현실이 바탕하는 것이다.

종합해 보자면 인력을 구할 수 없는 장애인의 필요와 법정수당 지급을 회피하고자 하는 활동지원기관의 이해, 생활에 필요한 임금을 충당하고자 장시간노동을 선택하는 노동자의 결정, 거기에 인력수급 안정성 확보와 교육시스템 구축이라는 과제를 회피하고자 하는 정부의 의지 속에서 월 천만 원 수익의 활동지원사가 가능하게 된다. 이 천만 원의 수익도 사실은 노동자로서는 삭제된 권리의 결과물이다. 장시간노동을 하고 돈을 많이 벌고자 하는 노동자의 선택은 이 전체 과정에서 얼마만큼의 주도권을 가지고 있을까.

이러한 조건들을 무시한 채 돈을 많이 버니까 입을 다물고 있으라는 식의 발화를 받아들일 수는 없다. 무엇보다 정부와 행정관료가 이런 식의 말을 해서는 안 된다. 정말 그것이 문제라면 여타의 정부 일자리 사업처럼 노동자는 1개의 일자리 사업에만 참여할 수 있도록 제한하면 된다. 하지만 왜 그렇게 하지 않을까? 어떤 난리가 날지 눈에 뻔하기 때문이다.

노동혐오 장애혐오

하는 일 없이 돈을 번다는 인식의 매개에는 심야 서비스에 대한 인식이 끼어있다. 사람이 잠을 자지 않고 일을 할 수는 없으며, 장애인이 잠자는 동안에 일하지 않으면서도 돈을 번다는 인식이다.

이런 인식은 정부나 사회보장정보원 부정수급 방지 교육자료를 보아도 알 수 있다. 사회보장정보원 교육자료에는 사회서비스 사업별 주요 이상 결제 유형으로 모든 서비스에서 심야결제를 꼽고 있다. 밤에 서비스한다고 보고하는 노동자는 부정수급 의혹을 받고 이와 함께 밤에 서비스 받는 장애인은 상시로 부정수급 의혹을 받으며 정부의 감시 대상이 된다. 복지 수급권이 권리가 아니라 낙인이 되는 데에는 이런 논리들이 작동한다.

달리 말하면 ‘장애인이 잠을 자는데 일을 할 리가 없잖아’는 ‘잠자는 시간에 서비스 받을 리가 없잖아’와 한 쌍의 인식이다. 이를 보면서 서비스 대상자에 대한 인식과 노동자에 대한 인식의 연결고리를 본다. “유전병자 한 명이 60살까지 살기 위해 평균 5만 마르크의 비용이 듭니다.”라는 나치의 발화와 장애인 권리 예산을 깎아내리는 정부의 인식이 다르지 않다고 장애인 인권운동은 말한다. “장애인활동지원사가 1년 버는 돈이 1억 2천입니다”라는 발화는 장애인에게 투여되는 국가 예산이 그를 웃돈다는 것을 함의하기도 한다.

활동지원사노동자와 장애인당사자가 이런 논리에 동조해야 할까? 일반적-통계적 사실에 부합하지도 않을뿐더러, 우리 사회가 나아가야 할 방향에도 적절한 인식은 아니다. 예산 논리에 매몰된 정부 관료가 이런 발언을 하면 차라리 규탄을 할 수 있지만, 우리가 이런 이야기를 농담으로 한다는 사실은 견디기 힘들다. 이런 이야기 농담으로라도 하지 말라.

@ 07f367da:0e76880d

• https://www.newspoole.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=10154
• 입력 2022.10.14 17:02
• 제목: 활동지원사 수급 문제, 왜 활동지원사에게는 묻지 않을까?

활동지원사 수급 문제, 왜 활동지원사에게는 묻지 않을까?

장애인활동지원제도의 문제점으로 반복적으로 지적되는 것 중의 하나가, 활동지원인력의 수급 불안정이다. 장애인 부모와 장애인이용자들은 활동지원사를 구할 수 없어 괴롭다고 말한다. 이 정도 주장에 그치면 고충을 느끼는 당사자로서 느끼는 바를 말하고 정부에 해결을 촉구하는 활동으로 이해할 수 있다. 그런데 여기서 더 나아가 다른 제도적 주장을 하기도 한다. 장애인 가족에게도 활동지원서비스를 제공할 수 있도록 허용해달라는 내용이거나, 용처를 제한한 바우처 대신에 현금으로 달라는 개인예산제와 관련된 주장이 이어진다.

가족 활동지원 허용을 주장하는 사람이나, 개인예산제를 도입하라고 주장하는 사람이나, 결론적으로 이를 주장하는 사람에게 ‘현금’을 달라는 주장으로 내용을 정리할 수 있다. 매칭이 되지 않는 장애인을 둔 가족은, 내가 장애인을 돌보니 활동지원사와 동일하게 임금을 받도록 해달라거나 자신만이 장애인 자녀를 돌볼 수 있으니 나에게 임금을 달라고 주장한다. 매칭이 안 되는 장애인 당사자는 바우처를 현금화하여 자신에게 주면 필요한 곳에 더 지혜롭게 쓸 수 있을 것이라 주장한다.

이러한 주제에 있어서는 그 주장이 오래된 만큼이나 비판도 오래되었다. 그래서 여기서 중언부언 말할 필요는 없어 보인다. 다만 그러한 논의와 별개로 해당 장애인이 활동지원사를 구하지 못하는 문제를 왜 장애인에게서 답을 구하는지는 항상 의문스럽다. 최근 MZ[^1]가 퇴사를 해서 기업들이 속이 탄다는 이야기들이 있었는데, 이런 문제의 해법을 사장님께 여쭈면 나오는 답은 뻔하다. 그러니까 나에게 ‘가족 활동지원 허용’과 ‘개인예산제’같은 해법은 사장님들이 말하는 ‘요즘 젊은것들의 근성을 키우기 위한 획기적인 방안’과 꼭 같은 느낌이다. MZ가 퇴사하는 이유는 MZ에게 물어봐야 한다. 활동지원사를 못 구하는 이유는? 활동지원사들이 왜 안가는지를 물어야 한다.

현장에서 활동지원사를 하고 노동조합 활동을 하면서, 매칭이 되지 않는다고 소문난 장애인 이용자들을 몇 알고 있다. 실제로 긴급하게 투입이 되어 본 적도 있고, 아는 사람이 문제의 장애인이용자에게 서비스를 제공하면서 고통스러움을 토로한 적도 있다. 좀 죄송한 말씀이지만, 사람들이 안가는 데에는 안 갈만한 이유가 있다. 장애인 개인의 행동이 문제인 경우도 있고, 그의 물적 인적 환경이 문제인 경우도 있고, 안타깝게도 제도의 한계 때문인 경우도 있다. 어쨌거나 해법은 활동지원사 입장에서 기피되는 원인에 대한 제거가 있어야 매칭이 원활히 이루어진다.

일부 관계자들은 활동지원사들이 중증장애인을 기피한다는 주장을 하기도 한다. 하지만 내 입장에서 또는 주변의 활동지원사를 보아도, 바우처 시간이 넉넉한 장애인이용자를 활동지원사들이 선호한다. 시간을 많이 받는다는 것은 국가가 시행하는 종합조사 검사표에서 높은 점수를 획득했다는 뜻이고 달리 말하면 시간이 많은 장애인이용자는 국가가 공인한 중증장애인이라는 의미이기도 하다. 누구는 중증장애인을 기피한다고 말하고, 누구는 중증장애인일수록 좋다고 말하는 현상이 벌어진다.

나는 이러한 괴리가 장애를 보는 관점의 충돌로 읽힌다. 장애인인권운동은 오랜 시간 장애의 의료적 모델에 저항해왔다. 그리고 여전히 국가가 설계한 종합조사 검사표 질문에는 능력과 기능을 집중적으로 묻는 질문들이 즐비하다. 활동지원사들이 중증장애인을 기피한다고 주장하는 사람들의 장애관은 의료적 모델인 경우도 있고 사회적 모델인 경우도 있다. 그리고 노동자 입장에서는 장애에 대한 급부적 모델이라고 할만한 시각이 존재한다. 이 시각에서는 국가가 정한 15개의 장애유형 따위는 상관없고, 장애가 사회적으로 어떤 차별을 받는지도 무관심하며, 그저 노동자 자신이 어떤 급부를 얼마나 많이 제공해야 하는지가 중요하다.

노동자 입장에서 최고의 직장은 일은 쉬우면서 임금을 많이 주고 사회적 인정도 받는 직장이다. 활동지원사들은 중증장애인을 기피하는 것이 아니라, 돈이 너무 안되거나 돈에 비해서 힘든 장애인이용자를 기피한다. 기피되는 중증장애인이란 국가가 충분히 인정한 중증장애인은 아니며, 한편으로는 노동자 입장에서는 너무나도 서비스하기 힘든 어떤 업무가 있는 장애인이용자이다. 그리고 그 극단적 대척점에는 국가는 너무나도 인정해서 많은 시간은 부여되었지만, 노동자 입장에서는 별일을 시키지 않는 소위 좋은 이용자들이 있다.

나는 각 관점들의 의견에 대한 종합적이고 총체적인 반영이 있어야 한다고 생각하는 편이다. 장애인이용자 개개인의 욕구를 반영하고, 사회적 의미에서 그러한 욕구가 권리로 인정되어야 할지 판단 후 보장하며, 그 권리를 보장하기 위해서는 얼마만큼의 노동이 필요한지에 대한 고려가 되어야 한다. 의료적 모델은 장애인들을 줄 세워 선별하여 예산을 아끼기 쉽기에 정부에 의해 선호될 뿐이고, 사회적 모델은 장애인의 욕구를 충분히 반영할 수 있다 판단되어 장애인권운동에서 선호될 뿐이다. 하지만 장애인의 욕구가 충분히 반영되고 과도한 예산이 투입된다고 할지라도 누군가는 선호되고 누군가는 기피되는 현상을 피할 수는 없다. 결국은 노동자가 어떻게 움직이는지에 대한 고려가 있어야만 한다. 노동강도를 평등화 할 수 있는 정책적 지원, 여러 시도들이 고민되어야만 한다.

[^1]: MZ 세대(MZ Generation). 밀레니얼 세대와 Z세대를 아우르는 용어이다. 1980년대 초부터 2000년대 초반에 출생한 사람에 해당한다.

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The rise of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has reshaped the global financial system, igniting new possibilities for innovation and development. In North America, a region at the forefront of technological advancements and economic influence, Bitcoin communities have played a pivotal role in advancing the adoption and utilization of digital currencies. These communities are engaged in a wide array of activities, from fostering education and providing technical support to promoting business opportunities and advocating for policy changes. This article will highlight 23 Bitcoin communities across North America, shedding light on their latest achievements and future ambitions in driving the expansion of Bitcoin technology, education, and economic empowerment. It offers readers a comprehensive understanding of the North American Bitcoin ecosystem and its significant influence on the global stage.

Thank you, nostr:npub1yzvxlwp7wawed5vgefwfmugvumtp8c8t0etk3g8sky4n0ndvyxesnxrf8q decentralized media client on Nostr to support people in owning their voice. #iOS #​Android, for supporting the publication of the Bitcoin Community Newsletter. Most of the content has been reviewed and confirmed by the South American communities. If there are any omissions, please feel free to reach out to me.

1.PlebLabs nostr:npub1an84q6c03wml5lf0uwcqcr20ydwv0t0lvv0xktlcfs9seattef8sdhz6yg * Introduction PlebLab is a hacker space and community accelerator based in Austin, Texas, dedicated to supporting the next generation of Bitcoin developers and startups. It brings together developers, hackers, creatives, and open-source builders to create a collaborative and innovative environment. PlebLab offers workshops, hackathons, and Startup Days to foster learning and growth within the Bitcoin ecosystem. By providing exposure, mentorship, and collaboration opportunities, PlebLab helps early-stage Bitcoin projects succeed. Its core philosophy is to support free and open-source development, driving innovation and progress within the Bitcoin space. * Latest Updates Recently, the PlebLab has continued to make significant strides in driving Bitcoin innovation and entrepreneurship. They have launched the second season of Top Builder, with a series of top-tier workshops focusing on Bitcoin Accounting, Bitcoin UX & UI Design, Bitcoin Marketing and Media, and more. These workshops aim to discover the next generation of Bitcoin industry startups, with participants having the chance to win up to $15,000 in BTC. The events will bring together Bitcoin developers and entrepreneurs, providing opportunities for showcasing ideas and networking. Additionally, PlebLab will host workshops related to Bitcoin technology and applications, helping members deepen their understanding of Bitcoin Core and enhance their development skills.

2.BAYAREA * Introduction Bay Area Bitcoin Users is a community formed by the people, for the people, aimed at providing an open and inclusive platform for all Bitcoin enthusiasts. The community regularly hosts events in the Bay Area, offering a space to share ideas, opinions, memes, and have relaxed discussions. It’s a great fit for anyone looking to dive deeper into Bitcoin technology or simply enjoy gatherings with like-minded individuals. * Latest Updates Recently, the Bay Area Bitcoin Users community hosted a Bitcoin Holiday Party at Eve (1535 Folsom St) in San Francisco, California. The event featured a Socratic seminar co-hosted by BitDevs and LitDevs at Digital Garage, followed by a festive celebration with music, snacks, a bar, and Bitcoin-related interactions. Designed as a family-friendly gathering, the event welcomed children accompanied by guardians, even though no specific activities for kids were organized.

3.Ann Arbor Bitcoin nostr:npub1j4dvdn24dp963f4sfak0g6nz0chnw8tyglvs3pn9gqhhhfukmrfsyznne7 * Introduction Ann Arbor Bitcoin is a community-focused organization based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, dedicated to fostering Bitcoin adoption and engagement. The group hosts regular meetups and events, providing a platform for Bitcoin enthusiasts to share knowledge and exchange ideas. * Latest Updates Recently, there have been no new updates from the community, with the latest event dating back to December 2022, which encouraged everyone to join their Telegram group to stay updated on all the latest news about meetups.

4.Bit Miami * Introduction BitMiami is a vibrant community dedicated to exploring and learning about the Bitcoin ecosystem in South Florida. * Latest Updates Recently, the BitMiami community has shared various Bitcoin-related events and updates. They highlighted Bitcoin Vortex Week in Miami and also focused on the HODLween event. BitMiami continues to support the growth of the South Florida Bitcoin community by reposting valuable content from local Bitcoin enthusiasts and organizations. They also encourage community members to actively engage with the Bitcoin ecosystem through meetups and educational opportunities.

5.Seattle Bitcoin and Beer nostr:npub1x2dm3cwqt0v9tqlf0ppzztaskn3th2x40p33hepl8rkwdgedw8eshypm5s * Introduction Seattle Bitcoin and Beer is a community that brings together Bitcoin enthusiasts and freedom lovers in Seattle. They regularly meet to discuss Bitcoin and build strong local connections in a city that may not always embrace freedom. The group fosters collaboration while enjoying good beer along the way. * Latest Updates Recently, the Seattle Bitcoin and Beer community hosted a monthly meetup on December 26th at the Old Stove Brewery on Nickerson St. Ship Canal, aiming to expand the sovereignty of the Bitcoin user network in the Great Northwest. Although this wasn't a cryptocurrency-exclusive meetup, participants gathered in a relaxed atmosphere to discuss Bitcoin and strengthen community connections.

6.Bitcoin Aruba * Introduction Bitcoin Aruba is a community dedicated to promoting the use and acceptance of Bitcoin across the beautiful island of Aruba. Their mission is to encourage local businesses and individuals to embrace Bitcoin as a payment option, creating a vibrant ecosystem where people can experience the freedom and potential of decentralized currency.. * Latest Updates Recently, the Bitcoin Aruba community has shared various Bitcoin-related updates on Twitter. They highlighted and reposted content from several Bitcoin initiatives, including the StackSats 250k Sat giveaway, BTCPay Server’s holiday greetings, and discussions on the importance of running your own Bitcoin node. Additionally, Bitcoin Aruba has been encouraging community members to actively engage in the Bitcoin ecosystem, with a focus on topics like node operation and privacy protection.

7.Bitcoin Beach Yucatan nostr:npub1w2my0n7rklzdgw7anjdnssq8mjzkpr54apqeg3pk9qjauu9dt26smyydvm * Introduction Bitcoin Beach Yucatán is a community dedicated to promoting Bitcoin education and adoption throughout the Yucatán state. * Latest Updates Recently, there have been no new updates from the community. The latest event dates back to Oct 2024, when they shared a post calling for help for the disaster-stricken area of Sisal, requesting food, clothing, and other essential supplies.

8.Bitcoin Brunch Miami * Introduction Bitcoin Brunch Miami is a community where Bitcoin enthusiasts gather every Sunday for casual discussions over brunch. * Latest Updates Recently, there have been no new updates from the community on twitter, The latest event dates back to July 2023. However, Bitcoin Brunch Miami has already hosted five brunch discussions in December.

9.Bitcoin Charlotte nostr:npub1p7g986pc56qmvryplgzka0fsrpuwlk6mxk3h686w4e46n74e56qqhz88vk * Introduction Bitcoin Charlotte is a community for those passionate about Bitcoin, decentralization, privacy, and freedom. It provides opportunities to connect with individuals at the forefront of this transformative technology through social events, workshops, and online hangouts. The community’s mission is to educate and empower people to break free from financial dependence on banks and governments by embracing Bitcoin, the most superior form of money in history. * Latest Updates Recently, the Bitcoin Charlotte community hosted several events, including an in-person meetup at Southern Strain Brewery in Plaza Midwood, where members connected with like-minded individuals and celebrated Bitcoin's potential for financial liberation by purchasing beer with Bitcoin. Additionally, the community held an online Bitcoin meetup and knowledge-sharing session on December 2, further promoting Bitcoin education and awareness.

10.Bitcoin Ciudadela * Introduction Bitcoin Ciudadela is focused on transforming San Cristóbal de las Casas and Chiapas into strongholds for Bitcoin adoption and education. The community aims to build a robust network of Mexican Bitcoiners who are united in promoting the benefits of decentralized finance and empowering individuals with knowledge about Bitcoin. * Latest Updates Recently, there have been no new updates from the community. The latest event dates back to Apr 2024, when they shared a post criticizing those who supported restrictions on freedom and praised those who fought for liberty, questioned authority, and stood against oppression.

11.Bitcoin Jungle nostr:npub14f26g7dddy6dpltc70da3pg4e5w2p4apzzqjuugnsr2ema6e3y6s2xv7lu * Introduction Bitcoin Jungle is an open-source community project built on the Bitcoin Lightning Network, aiming to create a circular Bitcoin economy. It supports individuals and businesses by providing education, resources, and technology to drive Bitcoin adoption. Starting in the Golden Triangle region of Costa Rica, the project strives to set an example for Bitcoin communities. The goal is to establish a sustainable Bitcoin ecosystem for communities worldwide. * Latest Updates Recently, Bitcoin Jungle is actively preparing for the next Bitcoin Freedom Festival, which will take place from February 20th to 24th, 2025, at the Awake Earth Festival in Uvita, Costa Rica. The event will combine Bitcoin seminars with a music festival, lectures, and discussions, aiming to attract new audiences to the Bitcoin space in a unique and engaging way.

12.Bitcoin Lake Guatemala nostr:npub1a4excy7uf9z3mcafvm9cwdr549dl5lpazuvpr2nc550vf27n5a4scqq5k2 * Introduction Bitcoin Lake Guatemala is a Bitcoin community located in Guatemala, focused on promoting the use and education of Bitcoin in the Lake Atitlán region. By supporting local businesses in adopting Bitcoin payments and providing educational resources, the community aims to build a sustainable economy based on Bitcoin. * Latest Updates Recently, the community has shared one update，this post celebrates the continued growth and resilience of the Bitcoin movement, marking a significant milestone for the community.

13.Round Rock Bitcoiners nostr:npub17ysayggwumkpkpgsq75axd7ed9guw03wz9jldz5d0zrkgz0cja2qd09tzu * Introduction Round Rock Bitcoiners is a Bitcoin community in Round Rock, Texas, dedicated to promoting Bitcoin knowledge and adoption. Through monthly meetups and resource sharing, the group supports individuals and small businesses in adopting Bitcoin and fosters a local peer-to-peer network. * Latest Updates Recently, The Round Rock Bitcoiners community has been actively organizing events to promote Bitcoin education and strengthen community bonds. Recently, they hosted a screening of the film No More Inflation, exploring the future of money and inflation-free solutions, followed by a Bitcoin-themed happy hour. Additionally, they announced the second biennial Base58 Bitcoin LARP event, offering participants a unique experience of hands-on learning, networking, and fun. Additionally, they shared posts addressing KYC privacy risks, critical discussions about the IRS, the legacy of cypherpunk ideals, and new features in the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as Zaps integration with the Rumble platform.

14.SacTown Bitcoin * Introduction Sactown Bitcoiners is a Bitcoin-focused community with members from across the Greater Sacramento region. The group hosts two monthly events: a discussion and member-led presentation at the Arden-Dimick Library on the 4th Thursday and a social gathering at a brewery or restaurant on the 2nd Thursday. Discussions revolve around Bitcoin, covering topics like money, hope, and the future under a Bitcoin standard. Open to Bitcoin enthusiasts, beginners, and maximalists alike, the community maintains a strict “Bitcoin only” policy, creating a dedicated space for pure Bitcoin conversations. * Latest Updates Recently, SacTown Bitcoin hosted a Christmas Party and highlighted Bitcoin's transformative impact. On December 12, 2024, SacTown Bitcoin hosted the Sactown Bitcoiners Christmas Party at Turkovich Family Wines Tasting Room. The event featured a potluck, a white elephant gift exchange (participants were asked to bring a gift worth approximately $20), and a raffle. Additionally, SacTown Bitcoin has been focusing on the profound impact of Bitcoin on personal financial understanding and its potential to disrupt economic inequalities. They have shared posts highlighting insights from financial and investment professionals inspired by Bitcoin, as well as discussions on how Bitcoin empowers ordinary people to benefit from asset growth.

15.San Diego Bitcoiners * Introduction San Diego Bitcoiners is a community dedicated to learning and discussing Bitcoin, providing a platform for anyone interested in the cryptocurrency. Established during the COVID-19 pandemic, the community hosts monthly events featuring guest speakers, brief presentations, or casual conversations. Meetings are held every second Thursday of the month at Quantum Brewing in Kearny Mesa, welcoming all Bitcoin enthusiasts. * Latest Updates Recently, San Diego Bitcoiners have been actively engaged in promoting Bitcoin education and fostering community interaction. They were featured in a local news article as the oldest running Bitcoin meetup in San Diego. The community has been sharing important reminders, such as testing Bitcoin wallet backups every six months. They also continue to host regular meetups, with a focus on practical demonstrations, including CoinJoin and wallet integrations like Sparrow Wallet and JoinMarket. The latest meetup took place in December at Quantum Brewing, where members gathered to discuss Bitcoin and explore new tools in the ecosystem.

16.SLC-BTC * Introduction The SLC-BTC community focuses on Bitcoin and the Lightning Network, welcoming participants of all experience levels. Regular meetups feature discussions on topics such as Bitcoin protocol, software, economics, self-custody, and mining. Whether you're a newcomer or an experienced user, the community encourages open dialogue and answers any Bitcoin-related questions. * Latest Updates Recently, the SLC-BTC community hosted a series of successful events, including a Christmas party, thanks to the active participation and support of its members. During the party, the community offered a variety of giveaways and collaborated with several partners. Additionally, the community organized a Christmas Potluck Party and celebrated the milestone of Bitcoin's price breaking 100K. SLC-BTC continues to provide opportunities for Bitcoin enthusiasts to connect, learn, and grow together.

17.Topeka Bitcoin * Introduction The Topeka Bitcoin Meet-up aims to expand knowledge and awareness within the community. Hosted at local businesses, the group discusses topics such as Bitcoin (network vs asset), the Lightning Network, running a full node, self-custody, and accumulation strategies. Additionally, the community explores Bitcoin literature, podcasts, and other relevant topics. * Latest Updates Recently, the Topeka Bitcoin community shared some interesting Bitcoin-related insights and updates on Twitter. Members celebrated the new year, highlighting the concept of "time is money" and encouraging everyone to accumulate at least 31,536,000 Sats this year (one sat per second). The community also discussed the concept of "sat/cent parity," offering a unique perspective on Bitcoin's value. Additionally, Topeka Bitcoin shared creative activities related to Bitcoin, such as Bitcoin-friendly cruise line initiatives.

18.Vancouver Bitcoiners * Introduction The Vancouver Bitcoin community is a dedicated group of Bitcoin enthusiasts actively engaging in events like Bitdevs and more. With the motto “Splendor Sine Inflatione” (Splendor Without Inflation), the community focuses on fostering knowledge and connections around Bitcoin. * Latest Updates Recently, the Vancouver Bitcoiners community has been actively involved in advocating for Vancouver to become a Bitcoin-friendly city. Community members have supported Mayor Ken Sim's proposal to invest in Bitcoin and have participated in backing the city council's Bitcoin-friendly motion. Additionally, the community has voiced concern over the Bitcoin mining ban in British Columbia, suggesting the use of local renewable energy sources like tidal, wind, and solar power for Bitcoin mining to expand the grid and utilize excess heat from mining rigs. During the council's discussions, the community also supported the idea of Vancouver building a Bitcoin reserve, despite the associated risks.

19.Victoria Bitcoin * Introduction Victoria Bitcoin is a community that regularly hosts Bitcoin-focused meetups and BitDevs seminars, typically held one to two times a month. These events are free and open to the public, providing opportunities for discussion, learning, and networking. Community members can also win prizes from Canada's Bitcoin self-custody pioneers, Bull Bitcoin and Coinkite. The community places a strong emphasis on privacy, with all discussions following Chatham House rules. * Latest Updates Recently, the Victoria Bitcoin community has been actively hosting several Bitcoin-related events, fostering interaction and engagement among local Bitcoin enthusiasts. The community regularly organizes “Bitcoin & Coffee” meetups, providing members with opportunities to discuss Bitcoin. The most recent event was scheduled for December 22 at Discovery Coffee. Additionally, the community hosted an exciting Christmas party on December 13, where attendees enjoyed free pizza, beer, and champagne, and Christmas gifts were purchased with Bitcoin, showcasing the practical use of Bitcoin in everyday life. The event also included a Bitcoin giveaway for lucky participants..

20.Michigan Bitcoin Meetup in Benton Harbor * Introduction Michigan Bitcoin Meetup in Benton Harbor is a community focused on exploring Bitcoin's impact on investing, entrepreneurship, and self-sovereignty. It provides a platform for like-minded individuals to connect, learn, and share ideas. * Latest Updates Recently, there have been no new updates from the community. The latest event dates back to Nov 2024, which Announced Bitcoin Meetup Night in Benton Harbor on Thursday, November 21.

21.Western Mass Bitcoin Meetup nostr:npub1xgyjasdztryl9sg6nfdm2wcj0j3qjs03sq7a0an32pg0lr5l6yaqxhgu7s * Introduction Western Mass Bitcoin Meetup is a community focused on connecting local bitcoiners, promoting bitcoin education, and increasing merchant adoption. The group hosts monthly meetups and offers support for newcomers in areas like self-custody, Lightning Network, and mining. * Latest Updates Recently, the Western Mass Bitcoin Meetup has been actively organizing events to foster community engagement and growth. On December 8th, they hosted a social meetup at Fitzwilly's in Northampton, providing a space for Bitcoin enthusiasts to connect and share ideas. Additionally, they are preparing for their 29th meetup on January 5th in East Longmeadow, continuing to offer a platform for local Bitcoin supporters to gather and collaborate.

22.Yes Bitcoin Haiti nostr:npub1mjmaggp53xan2435wdse8ts06pzfcjejfex4pxasu67kxs5hqdpsyk7hx8 * Introduction Yes Bitcoin Haiti is Haiti's first Bitcoin-only initiative, launched to empower communities through Bitcoin education and adoption. Founded by Phanor Mendelking in February 2024, the project focuses on spreading financial literacy, promoting economic growth, and building a circular Bitcoin economy. Its mission includes offering local Bitcoin certification, hosting meetups and workshops, and onboarding businesses and community members. Operating from St. Michel de l'Attalaye, it aims to drive financial inclusion and resilience in Haiti's challenging economic landscape. * Latest Updates Recently, the Yes Bitcoin Haiti community has been actively advancing Bitcoin education. The first batch of students is nearing the end of their courses, with two students leading the discussion of Chapter 10 in preparation for the upcoming final exams and graduation. Additionally, the community has showcased proof-of-work in action, reinforcing the spread of Bitcoin knowledge through student-led lessons and engagement in activities.

23.YYC Bitcoin * Introduction YYC Bitcoin is a community-focused meetup dedicated to growing, educating, and supporting the Bitcoin ecosystem in Calgary. The group hosts biweekly meetups for networking and learning, covering essential Bitcoin topics such as wallet setup, privacy, multisig, lightning, and mining. Newcomers are encouraged to visit the website to familiarize themselves with key concepts and bring their questions to future events. * Latest Updates Recently, YYC Bitcoin has actively promoted Bitcoin education and outreach through several updates. They shared the BTC Sessions year-end recap and the The 4th Annual BTC Sessions HODLiday Special, engaging community participation. Additionally, YYC Bitcoin reposted Blockstream Jade's promotional offer, encouraging the purchase of hardware wallets. The community also highlighted Bitcoin Mentor's personalized coaching services to help members better understand Bitcoin technology. Furthermore, they supported and promoted ticket sales for the Learning Bitcoin 2025 conference, further advancing Bitcoin education.

@ 7776c32d:45558888

Attached is a screenshot of the reddit profile of one of my possible past victims.

A few days ago, it crushed my soul to look at this not knowing if this /u/ykorea person is alive, and knowing even if she is, there must be other victims that are dead. I wrote most of this post those few days ago. After the harassment I've faced in the past few days with no significant backup, I'm numb to it.

I have never been able to get solid answers on what happened to ykorea after she stopped posting, but her posts read like someone that might have committed suicide over money lost trading options. I didn't make her lose money, but I contributed to her leaving, whether it was by suicide or not.

She is not Digit, but she is another woman I met on wallstreetbets - meaning, of all the people I might have accidentally killed, at least two are women from wallstreetbets possibly dead via suicide. I would have preferred to save both of them. I just cause so many deaths, two possible ones happen to line up that way instead.

This ykorea woman said something hurtful to me once, something to do with how lonely I was and how women never cared about me at the time. I don't remember the specifics beyond that. I harassed her with hateful reminders of how she hurt me for a while, and still ended up forgetting the details myself by now.

Soon after that, I got rich, and she happened to befriend me for a brief time, not mentioning our past differences. I didn't mention them either because I wasn't sure if becoming acquainted with me was burying the hatchet, or simply forgetting I was the same guy from all the hateful comments.

She was having a hard time financially and I wanted to help her, but I still wasn't rich enough to help everyone I want to help, and I didn't deem her worthy of being one of those few prioritized people I'd try to give some financial support. I was distrustful of any woman trying to find such support from men on wallstreetbets.

Why did I care enough about her words to be hurt by them enough to harass her over it for a while, but not care about her enough to really become a close supportive friend to her later? Because I'm a dangerously bad person and I can't cut off the cycle of abuse I'm in. People have made me learn to suppress my sympathy and I don't have the emotional capacity to afford to get it back. But I have the emotional capacity for anger, all day, every day. I can always afford anger. I'm the kind of person all the good writers warn you about in every story with any meaning. The kind of person they warn you not to be, and the kind of person they warn you not to make others into. None of us ever learn the easy way, do we?

She had not become friends with me based on burying the hatchet. She had forgotten who I was. That topic came up eventually and she was embarrassed about forgetting, and she pretty much stopped talking to me.

I didn't tell her to buy AMC. If she lost money on bad trades, that probably added more to her leaving than me. But I added to it by being a bad person. Whoever made her buy AMC could have been a bad person too, but it's also possible they were just misguided and desperate like her. I'm a monster, capable of nothing but offering good advice nobody takes, and making people hate themselves over their mistakes. I'm even worse than people who are just good at getting their advice taken by giving bad advice.

Unless Digit is alive. If she is, I can stop doing this. If I can stop doing this, people who keep giving bad advice can be worse than me. Every time I have proof she's alive, it becomes so much easier to just be fucking nice to people like Kurt Vonnegut says to do. But she deleted her accounts over a year ago and I keep getting more scared, and no matter how hard I try to cultivate self control, the best I can do is be a little less cruel, a little more forgiving, a little less selfish - not enough to stop contributing to suicides. Not enough to stop contributing to deaths of slaves in third world countries making products I use. Not enough. If I've failed her, I do believe I will not stop failing everyone as long as I live.

Remember, I wrote most of this with those feelings I had a few days ago, before the recent events where nostr:npub1jk9h2jsa8hjmtm9qlcca942473gnyhuynz5rmgve0dlu6hpeazxqc3lqz7 triggered a new wave of harassment against me and cornered me in a position where I have no better strategy than trying to cause suicides on nostr. It's all obvious and droll now. People die. So what? Digit isn't here to make lives matter anyway. This stuff will only matter if she shows up.

But it's not just me. Everyone contributes to suicides in their own way. Everyone contributes to climate change. Everyone uses products made by slaves. Almost any suicidal person can be helped by almost anyone who cares enough. If you don't know that, you don't understand. Tragic deaths happen millions of times a year because of society, not me in particular.

And everyone failed Digit spectacularly in the time I knew her. The world was made miserable for her and I need her to be strong enough to be living in it anyway. When I knew her, she couldn't be angry at everyone like I can, her love for everyone forced her to turn anger in on herself. I need proof she survived that, because if she wasn't strong enough to survive absorbing everyone's bullshit like that, I can't even get my hopes up about trying. All I can do if she's gone is be the world's punishment for her, and my own punishment at the same time - but not make myself the sponge of everyone's punishment. Worse people have to suffer more, as long as I'm suffering like this for who I am.

Take nostr:npub1dergggklka99wwrs92yz8wdjs952h2ux2ha2ed598ngwu9w7a6fsh9xzpc for example. Despite recently losing his dad to suicide, he seems to be pretending he's unaware of the harassment I'm facing over a loved one I'm worried about; or perhaps he echo chambers himself so extensively that he's actually not aware.

I believe, like me, he cannot think of a way to cope with his loss without causing it to happen to others for the rest of his life. Unlike me, I don't think he'll admit it or take responsibility for it. Unlike me, I don't think he's tried to fight it and found himself cornered; I think he's just fine with it because he's part of a society that's fine with behaving this way and blaming the victims. I think he'll probably be one of the many people using me to cause others to commit suicide but pretending to have no responsibility in the matter, pretending it's magically all me. Meanwhile, I actually admit my own part in it.

I will be punished for this, and eventually I will probably be permanently stopped from standing up for the truth. That only makes me more motivated to punish all the deceptive pieces of shit that have done this to the world, until I am fucking stopped.

While we're on the topic of uncertain speculation, my bet is neither me or Gigi can really enjoy the killing. We must both be empty shells. Maybe the reason he can't take responsibility is because, far from enjoying it, he actually finds the bloodshed more unbearable than I do.

What about the rest of you? Do you all find reality too unbearable to face, or are some of you gleefully enjoying the process of abusing and deceiving others while more and more people die? I think some of you are - and the police that might arrest me for my posts someday will do nothing about it. So I'll do what I can myself, and people will die in the crossfire. So be it.

Maybe I can't make any of you take responsibility, but when a nostr user commits suicide, I will have done everything I can to make you think the words "I failed to prevent this" and feel the weight of them.

@ 75d2e92b:4e9baa11

Imagine this: inflation is like rust on a machine. It forces the gears of the economy to keep spinning, not because we want progress, but because if we stop, everything corrodes. Your savings? They’re not yours for long. Your energy? Wasted, turned to dust. The system is rigged to keep you running, just to stand still.

Governments print money like confetti 🎉, indebting future generations while your hard earned wealth evaporates. The rich? They move their "piles of gold" into assets, safe from the storm. But families, savers, the everyman? They watch their stored energy years of work devalue into nothingness.

But here’s where it gets personal for me.

I believe our generation is different. We’re on the cusp of a new era. Advances in AI 🤖, medicine 🩺, and genetics 🧬 might make us the first generation to live 150, 200 years or more. If that happens, what good is working today if the value of our sweat turns into cents tomorrow? Why should our life’s energy stored as money shrink while we grow older?

Do you want to work for 200 years? Or do you want your stored value, your time, your essence, to hold strong like a fortress?

Bitcoin is that fortress. 🏰 Unlike fiat, it doesn’t rust. It doesn’t erode. It doesn’t let anyone no government, no bank reach into your pocket and steal the fruits of your labor. Its fixed supply (21M forever) is the ultimate time machine, preserving your value across generations.

So here’s my take: Inflation is the Great Thief 🕵️‍♂️. It keeps the machine running but at the cost of your freedom, your time, and your future. Bitcoin is the oil and the shield. It’s the key to breaking free from this endless hamster wheel. 🐹💸

Do you want your energy spent today to be worth a millisecond of tomorrow’s? Or do you want a tool that fights back, protects your time, and keeps the gears turning on your terms?

Choose wisely. Choose Bitcoin. 🧡 BY: Falco

#Bitcoin #Freedom #TimeIsMoney #Cypherpunk

@ 44189afb:b62f396c

Changes

Daniel D’Aquino (20):

• Automated i18n file changes from npm run build
• Add notedeck waitlist page
• Refactor code into several smaller blocks
• Add tab component
• Add Nostr DM OTP support to Purple checkout
• Purple welcome page
• Add better troubleshooting to OTP auth
• Fix subtle purple icon issue
• Update navigation around the website
• Improve checkout refresh stability
• npm run i18n
• Improve build process
• Fix checkout and login for npubs devoid of a profile
• Fix expired session token detection and automatic logout
• Add Purple checkout maintenance mode option
• Add nix-shell support
• Notedeck alpha landing page and install instructions page
• Storybook setup for development
• Add Nostr note component
• WIP 2024 review page

William Casarin (2):

• notedeck tweaks
• 2024 damus wrapped

ashleendaly (1):

• fix good first link

pushed to damus.io:refs/heads/master

@ cf7ed325:050194cf

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