@ 502ab02a:a2860397

บางครั้งพลังยิ่งใหญ่ที่สุดก็ไม่ใช่สิ่งที่เห็นได้ด้วยตาเปล่า เหมือนแสงแดดที่คนส่วนใหญ่มักจะกลัวเพราะกลัวผิวเสีย กลัวฝ้า กลัวร้อน แต่แท้จริงแล้วในแสงแดดมีบางสิ่งที่น่าเคารพอยู่ลึกๆ มันคือแสงที่มองไม่เห็น มันไม่แสบตา ไม่แสบผิว แต่มันลึก ถึงเซลล์ มันคือ “แสงอินฟราเรด” ที่ซ่อนตัวอย่างสุภาพในแดดยามเช้า

เฮียมักชอบพูดว่า แดดที่ดีไม่จำเป็นต้องแสบหลัง อาบแสงที่ลอดผ่านใบไม้ยามเช้าแบบไม่ต้องฝืนตาก็พอ แสงอินฟราเรดนี่แหละคือพระเอกตัวจริงในความเงียบ มันไม่ดัง ไม่โชว์ ไม่โฆษณา แต่มันลงลึกไปถึงระดับที่ร่างกายเรากำลังหิวโดยไม่รู้ตัวในระดับเซลล์

ในเซลล์ของเรา มีหน่วยผลิตพลังงานที่เรียกว่าไมโทคอนเดรีย เจ้านี่แหละคือโรงไฟฟ้าจิ๋วประจำบ้าน ที่ต้องตื่นมาทำงานทุกวันโดยไม่ได้หยุดเสาร์อาทิตย์ ยิ่งถ้าไมโทคอนเดรียทำงานไม่ดี ร่างกายก็จะเหมือนไฟตกทั้งระบบ—ง่วงง่าย เพลียไว ปวดนู่นปวดนี่เหมือนไฟในบ้านกระพริบตลอดเวลา

แล้วแสงอินฟราเรดเกี่ยวอะไรกับมัน? เฮียขอเล่าง่ายๆ ว่า ไมโทคอนเดรียมีตัวรับแสงตัวหนึ่งชื่อว่า cytochrome c oxidase เจ้านี่ตอบสนองต่อแสงอินฟราเรดช่วงคลื่นเฉพาะ คือประมาณ 600–900 นาโนเมตร พอโดนเข้าไป มันเหมือนได้จุดประกายให้โรงงานพลังงานในร่างกายกลับมาคึกคักอีกครั้ง ผลิตพลังงานได้มากขึ้น ระบบไหลเวียนเลือดก็ดีขึ้น เหมือนท่อน้ำที่เคยอุดตันก็กลับมาใสแจ๋ว ความอักเสบเล็กๆ ในร่างกายก็ลดลง คล้ายบ้านที่เคยอับชื้นแล้วได้เปิดหน้าต่างให้แสงแดดส่องเข้าไป

และที่น่ารักกว่านั้นคือ เราไม่ต้องไปถึงชายหาด ไม่ต้องจองรีสอร์ตริมทะเล แค่แดดเช้าอ่อนๆ ข้างบ้านหรือตามขอบระเบียง ก็ให้แสงอินฟราเรดได้แล้ว ถ้าใครอยู่ในเมืองใหญ่ที่มีแต่ตึกบังแดด แล้วจะเลือกใช้หลอดไฟ Red Light Therapy ก็ไม่ผิด แต่ต้องเลือกแบบรู้เท่าทันรู้ ไม่ใช่เห็นใครรีวิวก็ซื้อมาเปิดใส่หน้า หวังจะหน้าใสข้ามคืน ต้องเข้าใจทั้งความยาวคลื่น เวลาใช้งาน และจุดประสงค์ ไม่ใช่ใช้เพราะแค่กลัวแก่อยากหน้าตึง แต่ใช้เพราะอยากให้ร่างกายกลับไปทำงานอย่างเป็นธรรมชาติอีกครั้ง และอยู่ในประเทศหรือสถานที่ที่โดนแดดได้น้อยอยากได้เสริมเฉยๆ

แล้วเราจะรู้ได้ยังไงว่าไมโทคอนเดรียเรากลับมาทำงานดีขึ้น? เฮียว่าไม่ต้องรอผลเลือดจากแล็บไหนก็รู้ได้ อย่าไปยึดติดกับตัวเลขมากครับ เอาตัวเองเป็นหลัก ตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่ารู้สึกยังไงบ้าง ถ้าเริ่มนอนหลับลึกขึ้น ตื่นมาแล้วหัวไม่มึน ไม่หงุดหงิดตั้งแต่ยังไม่ลืมตา ถ้าปวดหลังปวดข้อที่เคยมีเริ่มหายไปแบบไม่ได้กินยา หรือแม้แต่ผิวที่ดูสดใสขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องง้อสกินแคร์ นั่นแหละคือเสียงขอบคุณเบาๆ จากไมโทคอนเดรียที่ได้แสงแดดแล้วกลับมามีชีวิตอีกครั้ง ถ้ามันดีก็คือดี

บางที เราไม่ต้องกินวิตามินเม็ดไหนเพิ่ม แค่เดินออกไปรับแดดเบาๆ ในเวลาเช้าๆ แล้วให้ร่างกายได้พูดคุยกับธรรมชาติบ้าง เพราะในความอบอุ่นเงียบๆ ของแสงอินฟราเรดนั้น มีเสียงเบาๆ ที่กำลังปลุกพลังในตัวเราให้กลับมาอีกครั้ง

แดดไม่ใช่ศัตรู ถ้าเรารู้จักมันในมุมที่ถูกต้อง เฮียแค่อยากชวนให้ลองเปลี่ยนจากคำว่า “กลัวแดด” เป็น “ฟังแดด” เพราะบางครั้งธรรมชาติไม่ได้พูดด้วยคำ แต่สื่อสารด้วยแสงที่แทรกผ่านหัวใจเราโดยไม่ต้องผ่านล่าม

บางคนอาจคิดในใจ “แหมเฮีย ก็ดีหรอก ถ้าได้ตื่นเช้า” 555555

เฮียเข้าใจดีเลยว่าไม่ใช่ทุกคนจะตื่นมาทันแดดยามเช้าได้เสมอไป ชีวิตคนเรามันไม่ได้เริ่มต้นพร้อมไก่ขันทุกวัน บางคนเพิ่งเข้านอนตอนตีสาม ตื่นอีกทีแดดก็แตะบ่ายเข้าไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องกังวลไปจ้ะ เพราะความมหัศจรรย์ของแสงอินฟราเรดยังมีให้เราได้ใช้แม้ในแดดยามเย็น

แดดช่วงเย็น โดยเฉพาะหลังสี่โมงเย็นไปจนเกือบหกโมง (หรือเร็วช้าตามฤดู) ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก

เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก

จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ

สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว

@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom

Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.

Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

“Education increases conviction.

Conviction increases allocation.

Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi

https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg

On the 12th of May:

➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."

https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg

➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.

➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '

On the 13th of May:

➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg

➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.

➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."

➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.

➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News

➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.

➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.

➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.

➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.

➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...

➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.

➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."

Well, here you go.

Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg

Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.

I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.

It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.

And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...

DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!

Clear!

➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:

10th percentile: 33%

25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%

Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:

Gold: 17%

Silver: 20%

S&P 500: 24%

Apple: 52%

Two lessons here:

1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.

2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'

https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg

➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.

➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.

On the 14th of May:

➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.

➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.

➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.

➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC

On the 15th of May:

➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.

➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.

➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.

➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.

On the 16th of May:

➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".

➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.

➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger

➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg

On the 17th of May:

➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.

Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:

63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.

13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)

Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025

Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.

On the 18th of May:

➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg

On the 19th of May.

➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...

'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:

7 independent reports

20 peer-reviewed papers

As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755

➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.

If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.

If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.

HFSP, bondcucks!'

I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha

➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR

If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.

➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.

➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project

"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"

Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg

➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.

➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.

➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked

https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.

👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.

👉🏽'Truly incredible:

1. Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
2. Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
3. Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL

President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds

Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."

Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.

👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.

👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"

Source

Kinda obvious, innit?

👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.

On the 14th of May:

👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.

A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL

On the 15th of May:

👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png

On the 16th of May:

👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL

👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL

👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL

Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.

Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg

RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.

👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor

https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png

On the 18th of May:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg

On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png

👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'

🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:

What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis

'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'

https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.

Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀

⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you?

If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

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@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Most nematodes are beneficial and "graze" on black vine weevil, currant borer moth, fungus gnats, other weevils, scarabs, cutworms, webworms, billbugs, mole crickets, termites, peach tree borer and carpenter worm moths.

They also predate bacteria, recycling nutrients back into the soil and by doing so stimulates bacterial activity. They act as microbial taxis by transporting microbes to new locations of soil as they move through it while providing aeration.

https://stacker.news/items/988573

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.

The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.

The key types of thinking are:

• Thinking to acquire knowledge
• Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.

In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)

Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”

Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.

---

“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.

Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris

@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2

Ich liebe Pareto. Für das was es ist, viel mehr aber für das was es derzeit wird - der Marktplatz der Ideen. Er entsteht durch gemeinsames Engagement von Entwicklern, Autoren und aktiven Lesern. Es ist ein lebendiges Medium, das jeden Tag wächst, quantitativ wie qualitativ, durch offene Interaktion, was es in dieser Form einzigartig macht.\ \ Mein Text ist inspiriert durch den Artikel von Alexa Rodrian vom 22. Mai über den Auftritt von Wolf Biermann bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises.  Alexa ist keine Publizistin, genau wie zahlreiche unserer Autoren, aber sie hat einen bemerkenswerten Beitrag verfasst. Ich habe ihn spontan geliked, kommentiert und mit einer Spende honoriert. In den vergangenen Tagen habe ich viel darüber reflektiert, und Pareto ermöglicht es mir, und jedem anderen, diese Überlegungen zur “Causa Biermann” hier darzulegen.

MSN kommentierte die anstößige Rede wie folgt: mit einem verfälschten Golda-Meir-Zitat lenkte Biermann das Thema auf das Sterben in Gaza, für das er die Palästinenser selbst verantwortlich machte. „Dass ihr unsere Söhne ermordet habt, werden wir Euch eines Tages verzeihen“, habe Meir zu den Palästinensern gesagt, „aber wir werden euch niemals verzeihen können, dass ihr unsere Söhne gezwungen habt, selber Mörder zu werden.“ Alexa Rodrian, in einer Mischung aus Enttäuschung und Empörung, eröffnete ihren Artikel wie folgt:

„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt. Die fremde Hand ist bei Biermann eher unwahrscheinlich, denn sein Hang zu Provokationen und Verletzungen haben Tradition, man erinnere sich an den legendären Auftritt bei einer Feierstunde im Bundestag 2014 in der er die Mitglieder der Linksfraktion als “elenden Rest“ und ”Drachenbrut” bezeichnete. Oder seine Beschimpfungen der (ostdeutschen) Wähler von AfD und BSW im August 2024 in einem Zeit-Interview:  „Die, die zu feige waren in der Diktatur, rebellieren jetzt ohne Risiko gegen die Demokratie.  Den Bequemlichkeiten der Diktatur jammern sie nach, und die Mühen der Demokratie sind ihnen fremd.“

Im Februar 2025 wurde Wolf Biermann für sein Lebenswerk mit einem Musikpreis der GEMA ausgezeichnet. Was aber ist sein Lebenswerk, sein mutiges Engagement in der Opposition der DDR bis 1976 oder seine verfehlten Rüpeleien in der Gegenwart? Ein solcher Preis ist fragwürdig, denn kein Lebenswerk ist konsistent, und die Bewertung abhängig von subjektiven Maßstäben. Meist wählen wir unsere Idole nach unseren Idealen, aber die können sich verändern, ebenso wie das Idol. Beethoven widmete seine 3. Sinfonie (Eroica) Napoleon, zog die Widmung aber zurück als dieser sich 1804 zum Kaiser krönen ließ. “Ist der auch nichts anderes, wie ein gewöhnlicher Mensch?” soll er wütend ausgerufen haben. Richtig! Was hatte Beethoven erwartet, einen Gott? “Hosianna” und “kreuzigt ihn” sind Affekte die durch unsere Projektionen verursacht und den Realitäten nie gerecht werden. 

Den Preis für sein Lebenswerk kann Wolf Biermann behalten. Er hat Millionen von Menschen in der DDR Mut gemacht. Er hat zahlreiche großartige Gedichte und Lieder verfasst, das behalte ich gerne in Erinnerung. Nun hat er sich selbst vom Sockel gestürzt und durch seinen Empathiemangel das Image beschädigt. Das hätte er vermeiden können, wenn er sich an die Worte seines Lehrmeisters Brecht erinnert hätte.

...\ Dabei wissen wir doch:\ Auch der Hass gegen die Niedrigkeit\ verzerrt die Züge.\ Auch der Zorn über das Unrecht\ Macht die Stimme heiser. Ach, wir\ Die wir den Boden bereiten wollten für die Freundlichkeit\ Konnten selber nicht freundlich sein.\ ...

An die Nachgeborenen

Er hätte auch von der Medizin nehmen können, die er selbst für andere entwickelt hat \ (1966 für seinen Freund Peter Huchel).

…\ Du, laß dich nicht verhärten\ in dieser harten Zeit.\ Die allzu hart sind, brechen,\ die allzu spitz sind, stechen\ und brechen ab sogleich.\ …

Die Ermutigung

PS: Fortsetzung folgt in der Reihe \ “Was wir von großen Persönlichkeiten lernen können, wenn wir ihnen zuhören würden."

@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5

In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.

The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.

These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.

In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.

He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.

“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”

To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.

And he was right. Literally.

By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.

But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.

His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.

With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.

But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.

He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.

In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.

And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ 15cf81d4:b328e146

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🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

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You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

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• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

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🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Descrição da empresa

Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.

A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.

Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.

acao wege3

Vendendo soluções para os clientes

"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”

Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.

Visão geral da empresa

A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.

Mercado que atua

O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.

A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.

Mercado

Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!

As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.

Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:

Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.

Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.

Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.

Materia sobre carros eletricos

Oportunidades que o ativo traz

Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:

1. Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais

   Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.

2. Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)

   Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.

3. Motores Comerciais e Appliance

   O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.

cotacao wege3

Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.

Riscos

Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:

1. Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
2. Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
3. Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.

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Catalisadores

Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:

distribuicao receita

• Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
• Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
• As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.

aquisicao wege

Faq

Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?

13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.

WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?

Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.

O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?

A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.

Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?

A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.

Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?

O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.

Bio

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Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referencia

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/50c1bd3e-8ac6-42d9-884f-b9d69f690602/161a9930-5b12-3b03-758b-3b6d2b725211?origin=1

https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Why
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@ c230edd3:8ad4a712

Chef's notes

Wildly enough, this is delicious. It's sweet and savory.

(I copied this recipe off of a commercial cheese maker's site, just FYI)

I hadn't fully froze the ice cream when I took the picture shown. This is fresh out of the churner.

Details

• ⏲️ Prep time: 15 min
• 🍳 Cook time: 30 min
• 🍽️ Servings: 4

Ingredients

• 12 oz blue cheese
• 3 Tbsp lemon juice
• 1 c sugar
• 1 tsp salt
• 1 qt heavy cream
• 3/4 c chopped dark chocolate

Directions

1. Put the blue cheese, lemon juice, sugar, and salt into a bowl
2. Bring heavy cream to a boil, stirring occasionally
3. Pour heavy cream over the blue cheese mix and stir until melted
4. Pour into prepared ice cream maker, follow unit instructions
5. Add dark chocolate halfway through the churning cycle
6. Freeze until firm. Enjoy.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus

Maecenas commodo, augue in placerat lacinia, lorem libero convallis mi, eu fringilla velit arcu id sem. In ac metus vitae sapien dignissim luctus

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃

Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)

Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!

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Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".

Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju

Kako nas je deda Avram spasio pre 30 godina: Neverovatno svedočenje tvorca „super dinara“ o jednoj od najgorih godina u istoriji Srbije

Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović

Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar

„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)

Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!

ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.

Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.

Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.

U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.

Wikipedia: Redenomination

Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.

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Komentari

brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.

Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.

Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.

@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.

brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.

Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.

Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.

@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.

HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.

@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?

Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?

HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.

@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/

HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.

@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.

Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.

Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.

Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.

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loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...

A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?

@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.

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Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?

2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...

@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.

Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k

Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.

Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.

@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.

Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.

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Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.

Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.

Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.

Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.

I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..

@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.

A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.

Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.

Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.

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Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.

Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.

@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?

Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster

Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.

Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D

Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.

Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.

p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu

@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.

Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".

Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.

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kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:

-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.

-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.

-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.

-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.

-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?

-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.

-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.

OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.

Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.

@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.

Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.

Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.

Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.

BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.

Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.

Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.

Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.

Svako dobro!

kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.

Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.

Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).

Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.

Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.

Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.

Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.

Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.

@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.

Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.

Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.

Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).

Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.

kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.

Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...

Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?

XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...

Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.

Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I

@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me

Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!

Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.

Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.

Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.

kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.

A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?

Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.

Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!

Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.

Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.

@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom

Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.

Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.

ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.

Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?

Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit\ enean magna lorem, dignissim et nisl a, iaculis eleifend dolor

uspendisse potenti

@ c230edd3:8ad4a712

Chef's notes

I found this recipe a couple years ago and have been addicted to it since. Its incredibly easy, and cheap to prep. Freeze the sausage in flat, single serving portions. That way it can be cooked from frozen for a fast, flavorful, and healthy lunch or dinner. I took inspiration from the video that contained this recipe, and almost always pan fry the frozen sausage with some baby broccoli. The steam cooks the broccoli and the fats from the sausage help it to sear, while infusing the vibrant flavors. Serve with some rice, if desired. I often use serrano peppers, due to limited produce availability. They work well for a little heat and nice flavor that is not overpowering.

Details

• ⏲️ Prep time: 25 min
• 🍳 Cook time: 15 min (only needed if cooking at time of prep)
• 🍽️ Servings: 10

Ingredients

• 4 lbs ground pork
• 12-15 cloves garlic, minced
• 6 Thai or Serrano peppers, rough chopped
• 1/4 c. lime juice
• 4 Tbsp fish sauce
• 1 Tbsp brown sugar
• 1/2 c. chopped cilantro

Directions

1. Mix all ingredients in a large bowl.
2. Portion and freeze, as desired.
3. Sautè frozen portions in hot frying pan, with broccoli or other fresh veggies.
4. Serve with rice or alone.

@ 00000001:b0c77eb9

مواقع التواصل الإجتماعي العامة هي التي تتحكم بك، تتحكم بك بفرض أجندتها وتجبرك على اتباعها وتحظر وتحذف كل ما يخالفها، وحرية التعبير تنحصر في أجندتها تلك!

وخوارزمياتها الخبيثة التي لا حاجة لها، تعرض لك مايريدون منك أن تراه وتحجب ما لا يريدونك أن تراه.

في نوستر انت المتحكم، انت الذي تحدد من تتابع و انت الذي تحدد المرحلات التي تنشر منشوراتك بها.

نوستر لامركزي، بمعنى عدم وجود سلطة تتحكم ببياناتك، بياناتك موجودة في المرحلات، ولا احد يستطيع حذفها او تعديلها او حظر ظهورها.

و هذا لا ينطبق فقط على مواقع التواصل الإجتماعي العامة، بل ينطبق أيضاً على الـfediverse، في الـfediverse انت لست حر، انت تتبع الخادم الذي تستخدمه ويستطيع هذا الخادم حظر ما لا يريد ظهوره لك، لأنك لا تتواصل مع بقية الخوادم بنفسك، بل خادمك من يقوم بذلك بالنيابة عنك.

وحتى إذا كنت تمتلك خادم في شبكة الـfediverse، إذا خالفت اجندة بقية الخوادم ونظرتهم عن حرية الرأي و التعبير سوف يندرج خادمك في القائمة السوداء fediblock ولن يتمكن خادمك من التواصل مع بقية خوادم الشبكة، ستكون محصوراً بالخوادم الأخرى المحظورة كخادمك، بالتالي انت في الشبكة الأخرى من الـfediverse!

نعم، يوجد شبكتان في الكون الفدرالي fediverse شبكة الصالحين التابعين للأجندة الغربية وشبكة الطالحين الذين لا يتبعون لها، إذا تم إدراج خادمك في قائمة fediblock سوف تذهب للشبكة الأخرى!

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."

Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.

Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.

Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.

In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.

The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

Lyn Alden unpacks the complex interplay of global trade imbalances, the dollar’s entrenched reserve currency status, and America’s eroded industrial base, arguing that aggressive tariffs under Trump have backfired by hurting U.S. businesses without reversing decades of offshoring. She illustrates how China has rapidly ascended the value chain, dominating key industries and making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to build a trade coalition against them. Despite the U.S.’s massive debt and persistent global demand for dollars, cracks are forming in the system as nations explore alternative payment systems and neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn emphasizes that Bitcoin’s most effective path to integration is through grassroots and corporate adoption, not government-led initiatives, and warns that unless the U.S. urgently scales its energy and industrial capacity, it risks falling further behind China’s unmatched pace of growth and infrastructure dominance.

Best Quotes

• "The trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal."
• "It's better to correct these imbalances from a position of strength, not weakness."
• "All that debt creates inflexible demand for dollars. There’s literally way more demand than dollars in the system."
• "China became the largest auto exporter in the world in just four years."
• "Bitcoin isn’t changing to fit into the global financial system. The global financial system is changing to fit Bitcoin."
• "Individuals, small businesses, corporations—these are the real drivers of Bitcoin adoption. Not governments."

Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering look at America’s trade and currency dilemmas, with Lyn Alden explaining why quick policy fixes like tariffs can’t reverse decades of deindustrialization tied to the dollar’s reserve status. She highlights the rise of neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin as important hedges, stressing that grassroots and corporate adoption will be more effective than government-led efforts. Lyn also warns that without a major push to expand energy production, the U.S. risks falling behind in an AI-driven, hardware-centric world, urging strategic humility and innovation to navigate the shifting global order.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:31 - Triffin's dilemma
8:10 - Debt leverage
11:04 - Fold & Bitkey
12:41 - Trump's goals and tariff policy
19:54 - Unchained
20:24 - China is not weak
30:07 - Energy
37:15 - AI/robots
41:11 - SBR
48:47 - Bitcoin credit products
52:40 - Eventful week for bitcoin

Transcript

(00:00) They ramped up tariffs super high, super quickly. In many cases, were so high that they hurt us as much as some of our trade adversaries. China has ramped up to like unfathomable degrees. Nuclear, solar, pretty much everything that they can throw money at they're building. The trade is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal.
(00:19) They take those slips of paper and then they buy our stocks. They buy our corporate bonds and government bonds. And so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America. got the headphone hair. I'm all out of whack, Lynn. It's been a long week here in Austin. Yeah, I can imagine. It's been a long time since we've talked on the show. It's been two years.
(00:41) I was checking, which is a astonishing to me. But no better time than now. Uh I think quite literally based off of all the conversations we've had uh over the years. I mean, your famous saying, nothing stops this train. I think we're coming to a juncture where that's becoming abundantly clear. and you wrote uh a newsletter earlier this week, I believe you sent it out Sunday, that basically highlighted the crux of the problem, which is the dollar reserve status and the almost impossible task that Trump would like to accomplish, but
(01:21) likely isn't the case, which is sort of solving Triffin's dilemma of reshoring manufacturing while keeping US dollar dominance. So I think diving into this from first principles would be great. Sure. Yeah. And that's that's the um I can imagine the administration's challenge of trying to communicate this because uh the intricacies of how trade deficits and the reserve currency kind of pair together is very wonkish.
(01:46) It it kind of has this like academic quality to it that doesn't go over well uh in kind of political oriented speeches. Um like I would I would be terrible at a political rally for example when I try to explain any of this. Um and so we kind of have this situation where um and this was outlined back during the Breton Wood system by Triffin as you mentioned uh which is that having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits um you know historically called a extraordin uh exorbitant privilege um but then it has certain costs to
(02:15) maintain it and those costs can vary a bit depending on how the system structure. So for example back in the Bretton Woods era the cost was that we kept draining our gold reserves. uh we basically had to kind of keep paying out our go gold gold reserves to maintain that part of the system and in the current formation uh instead we kind of pay for it with our industrial base.
(02:36) We keep kind of sending out little parts of our industrial base over time to maintain the the global reserve currency status. And there's a few reasons for that. One is that um because unlike every other fiat currency, the dollar has all these extra demands for it by countries all around the world. um all these different purposes.
(02:55) um there's this extra demand for dollars which sounds good on the surface and as for Americans for example we have tons of import power when we go on vacations to the rest of the world it's you know we have pretty strong purchasing power compared to when they come to the US um these things seem good on the surface but it also means that it's pretty expensive to manufacture lower margin things here at home uh and so we have this kind of situation where our imports are very strong our exports uh especially lower margin stuff is less uh
(03:22) competitive whereas we can still be competitive competitive on really high margin stuff, you know, technology, finance, healthcare, that kind of thing. Um, and then the other aspect is that even if you could somehow solve that, there's the more fundamental problem, which is that the whole world needs dollars uh for the you know, global reserve currency status to use it for international contract pricing, crossber financing, one side of every trade pair that they do, all these different purposes as a reserve asset. Um uh and
(03:51) when you step back and say, "Well, how do they get all those dollars if they're all using dollars? How did all those dollars get out there?" And the answer is trade deficits. Um basically that overvalued aspect forces open the US trade deficit. And every year we send out hundreds of billions or sometimes a trillion dollars in net outflows.
(04:10) And over years and decades, these have accumulated out there. And so, uh, kind of the way it works is that if you want to fix the trade deficit, which I've been I've been writing about since 2019, I think that's a I think that's a valid mandate to do. Um, unfortunately does come with trade-offs.
(04:26) Uh, some of the some of the benefits that that you know that we enjoy at the cost of the trade deficit. Um, if you do want to kind of fix that imbalance, it comes up, you know, with with basically giving away at least some of those benefits and prioritizing that that industrial base a bit more. And one of the dynamics that you highlighted in your newsletter, which makes sense, but wasn't very clear to me before, is that via these deficits, we flood international markets with dollars because we're sending parts of our industrial base over there. But then
(05:00) it's like cyclical. They take those dollars and then reinvest them in US financial assets. So it has this sort of flow where it goes out but then it comes back in into the financialized economy via equities and real estate and other such assets and that is good for asset owners here in the United States.
(05:19) But again I think that's is part of the bag of mandate is that sort of cycle has led to this large wealth gap in the United States that they're trying to fix. Yeah. Exactly. Um and so basically the opposite side of a current account deficit which is basically so the trade deficit plus things like interest and dividends.
(05:39) Um so we run a structural current account deficit and the opposite side of that is a capital account surplus. Um which is that funds flow in the rest of the world and buy our financial assets. Uh and so it's the the trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services which sounds like a really good deal.
(05:57) Um but then the extra step of that that you mentioned is that they take those slips of paper or really those electronic digits that they have and then they buy our stocks, they buy our real estate, they buy our private equity, they they buy our corporate bonds and government bonds and so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America as part of their kind of accumulated uh trade surpluses uh and reserve assets and uh international private assets.
(06:22) Um, and the kind of the consequence of this, if you kind of like view the foreign sector as an intermediary, we're basically constantly kind of taking economic vibrancy out of, you know, Michigan and Ohio and, uh, you know, rural Pennsylvania where the steel m

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

via me

It seems like every other day there's another company announced that is going public with the intent of competing with Strategy by leveraging capital markets to create financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin in a way that is accretive for shareholders. This is certainly a very interesting trend, very bullish for bitcoin in the short-term, and undoubtedly making it so bitcoin is top of mind in the mainstream. I won't pretend to know whether or not these strategies will ultimately be successful or fail in the short, medium or long term. However, one thing I do know is that the themes that interest me, both here at TFTC and in my role as Managing Partner at Ten31, are companies that are building good businesses that are efficient, have product-market-fit, generate revenues and profits and roll those profits into bitcoin.

While it seems pretty clear that Strategy has tapped into an arbitrage that exists in capital markets, it's not really that exciting. From a business perspective, it's actually pretty straightforward and simple; find where potential arbitrage opportunities exists between pools of capital looking for exposure to spot bitcoin or bitcoin's volatility but can't buy the actual asset, and provide them with products that give them access to exposure while simultaneously creating a cult-like retail following. Rinse and repeat. To the extent that this strategy is repeatable is yet to be seen. I imagine it can expand pretty rapidly. Particularly if we have a speculative fervor around companies that do this. But in the long run, I think the signal is falling back to first principles, looking for businesses that are actually providing goods and services to the broader economy - not focused on the hyper-financialized part of the economy - to provide value and create efficiencies that enable higher margins and profitability.

With this in mind, I think it's important to highlight the combined leverage that entrepreneurs have by utilizing bitcoin treasuries and AI tools that are emerging and becoming more advanced by the week. As I said in the tweet above, there's never been a better time to start a business that finds product-market fit and cash flows quickly with a team of two to three people. If you've been reading this rag over the last few weeks, you know that I've been experimenting with these AI tools and using them to make our business processes more efficient here at TFTC. I've also been using them at Ten31 to do deep research and analysis.

It has become abundantly clear to me that any founder or entrepreneur that is not utilizing the AI tools that are emerging is going to get left behind. As it stands today, all anyone has to do to get an idea from a thought in your head to the prototype stage to a minimum viable product is to hop into something like Claude or ChatGPT, have a brief conversation with an AI model that can do deep research about a particular niche that you want to provide a good service to and begin building.

Later this week, I will launch an app called Opportunity Cost in the Chrome and Firefox stores. It took me a few hours of work over the span of a week to ideate and iterate on the concept to the point where I had a working prototype that I handed off to a developer who is solving the last mile problem I have as an "idea guy" of getting the product to market. Only six months ago, accomplishing something like this would have been impossible for me. I've never written a line of code that's actually worked outside of the modded MySpace page I made back in middle school. I've always had a lot of ideas but have never been able to effectively communicate them to developers who can actually build them. With a combination of ChatGPT-03 and Replit, I was able to build an actual product that works. I'm using it in my browser today. It's pretty insane.

There are thousands of people coming to the same realization at the same time right now and going out there and building niche products very cheaply, with small teams, they are getting to market very quickly, and are amassing five figures, six figures, sometimes seven figures of MRR with extremely high profit margins. What most of these entrepreneurs have not really caught on to yet is that they should be cycling a portion - in my opinion, a large portion - of those profits into bitcoin. The combination of building a company utilizing these AI tools, getting it to market, getting revenue and profits, and turning those profits into bitcoin cannot be understated. You're going to begin seeing teams of one to ten people building businesses worth billions of dollars and they're going to need to store the value they create, any money that cannot be debased.

Grant Gilliam, one of the co-founders of Ten31, wrote about this in early 2024, bitcoin being the fourth lever of equity value growth for companies.

[

Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth

Most companies do not hold enough bitcoin There is a saying you often hear in bitcoin circles that “you can never have enough bitcoin.” This is typically expressed by those who have spent the time to both understand bitcoin’s unique and superior monetary properties and also to appreciate why tho

Ten31 - Investors in bitcoin infrastructure and freedom techGrant Gilliam

](https://ten31.vc/insights/treasury?ref=tftc.io)

We already see this theme playing out at Ten31 with some of our portfolio companies, most notably Strike, which recently released some of their financials, highlighting the fact that they're extremely profitable with high margins and a relatively small team (~75). This is extremely impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they're a global company competing with the likes of Coinbase and Block, which have each thousands of employees.

Even those who are paying attention to the developments in the AI space and how the tools can enable entrepreneurs to build faster aren't really grasping the gravity of what's at play here. Many are simply thinking of consumer apps that can be built and distributed quickly to market, but the ways in which AI can be implemented extend far beyond the digital world. Here's a great example of a company a fellow freak is building with the mindset of keeping the team small, utilizing AI tools to automate processes and quickly push profits into bitcoin.

via Cormac

Again, this is where the exciting things are happening in my mind. People leveraging new tools to solve real problems to drive real value that ultimately produce profits for entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs who decide to save those profits in bitcoin will find that the equity value growth of their companies accelerates exponentially as they provide more value, gain more traction, and increase their profits while also riding the bitcoin as it continues on its monetization phase. The compounded leverage of building a company that leverages AI tools and sweeps profits into bitcoin is going to be the biggest asymmetric play of the next decade. Personally, I also see it as something that's much more fulfilling than the pure play bitcoin treasury companies that are coming to market because consumers and entrepreneurs are able to recive and provide a ton of value in the real economy.

If you're looking to stay on top of the developments in the AI space and how you can apply the tools to help build your business or create a new business, I highly recommend you follow somebody like Greg Isenberg, whose Startup Ideas Podcast has been incredibly valuable for me as I attempt to get a lay of the land of how to implement AI into my businesses.

America's Two Economies

In my recent podcast with Lyn Alden, she outlined how our trade deficits create a cycle that's reshaping America's economic geography. As Alden explained, US trade deficits pump dollars into international markets, but these dollars don't disappear - they return as investments in US financial assets. This cycle gradually depletes industrial heartlands while enriching financial centers on the coasts, creating what amounts to two separate American economies.

"We're basically constantly taking economic vibrancy out of Michigan and Ohio and rural Pennsylvania where the steel mills were... and stuffing it back into financial assets in New York and Silicon Valley." - Lyn Alden

This pattern has persisted for over four decades, accelerating significantly since the early 1980s. Alden emphasized that while economists may argue there's still room before reaching a crisis point, the political consequences are already here. The growing divide between these two Americas has fueled populist sentiment as voters who feel left behind seek economic rebalancing, even if they can't articulate the exact mechanisms causing their hardship.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's man

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?
2. Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?
3. Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

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Bitcoin je peer to peer elektronski keš, novi oblik digitalnog novca koji se može prenositi između ljudi ili računara, bez potrebe za učestvovanjem pouzdanog posrednika (kao što je banka) i čije izdavanje nije pod kontrolom nijedne stranke.

Zamislite papirni dolar ili metalni novčić. Kad taj novac date drugoj osobi, ona ne mora da zna ko ste vi.

On samo treba da veruju da novac koji dobiju od vas nije falsifikat. Obično, proveravanje falsifikata „fizičkog“ novca, ljudi rade koristeći samo oči i prste ili koristeći specijalnu opremu za testiranje ukoliko se radi o značajnijoj sumi novca.

Većina plaćanja u našem digitalnom društvu vrši se putem Interneta korišćenjem neke posredničke usluge: kompanije za izdavanje kreditnih kartica poput Visa, snabdevača digitalnih plaćanja kao što je PayPal ili Apple Pay ili mrežne platforme poput WeChat u Kini.

Kretanje ka digitalnom plaćanju sa sobom donosi oslanjanje na nekog centralnog aktera koji mora odobriti i verifikovati svaku uplatu.

Priroda novca se promenila od fizičkog predmeta koji možete da nosite, prenesete i autentifikujete do digitalnih bitova koje mora da čuva i verifikuje treća strana koja kontroliše njihov prenos.

Odricanjem od gotovine u korist „udobnih“ digitalnih plaćanja, mi takođe stvaramo sistem u kome dajemo ogromna ovlašćenja onima koji bi poželeli da nas tlače.

Platforme za digitalno plaćanje postale su osnova distopijskih autoritarnih metoda kontrole, poput onih koje kineska vlada koristi za nadgledanje disidenata i sprečava građane, čije ponašanje im se ne svidja, da kupuju robu i plaćaju usluge.

Bitcoin nudi alternativu centralno kontrolisanom digitalnom novcu sa sistemom koji nam vraća prirodu korišćenja keša – čovek čoveku, ali u digitalnom obliku.

Bitcoin je digitalno sredstvo koje se izdaje i prenosi preko mreže međusobno povezanih računara, od koji svaki od njih samostalno potvrđuje da svi ostali igraju po pravilima.

Bitcoin Mreža

Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je izumela osoba ili grupa poznata pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, oko 2008. godine.

Niko ne zna Satoshijev identitet, a koliko znamo, oni su nestali i o njima se godinama ništa nije čulo.

11.februara 2009. godine, Satoshi je pisao o ranoj verziji Bitcoin-a na mrežnom forumu za cypher­punkere, ljude koji rade na tehnologiji kriptografije i koji su zabrinuti za privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Iako ovo nije prvo zvanično objavljivanje Bitcoin-a, sadrži dobar rezime Satoshi-jevih motiva.

Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda pod nazivom Bitcoin. Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki, jer se sve zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju. […]

Osnovni problem konvencionalne valute je potpuno poverenje koje je potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da drže naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali one ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa delićem rezerve. Moramo im verovati sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune. Njihovi ogromni režijski troškovi onemogućavaju mikro plaćanja.

Generaciju ranije, višekorisnički time-sharing računarski sistemi imali su sličan problem. Pre pojave jake enkripcije, korisnici su morali da imaju pouzdanje u zaštitu lozinkom kako bi zaštitili svoje fajlove […]

Tada je jaka enkripcija postala dostupna širokim masama i više nije bilo potrebno poverenje. Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac. Uz e-valutu zasnovanu na kriptografskom dokazu, bez potrebe da verujete posredniku treće strane, novac može biti siguran i transakcije mogu biti izvršene bez napora. […]

Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje. Ukratko, mreža radi poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić. Potrebna je prednost prirode informacije koju je lako širiti, ali je teško ugušiti. Za detalje o tome kako to funkcioniše, pogledajte članak o dizajnu na bitcoin.org

Satoshi Nakamoto

Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?

Razdvojimo neke od Satoshi-jevih postova kako bismo uvideli razloge njegove motivacije.

„Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda.“

P2P je skraćenica za peer to peer i ukazuje na sistem u kojem jedna osoba može da komunicira sa drugom bez ikoga u sredini, kao medjusobno jednaki.

Možete se setiti P2P tehnologija za razmenu datoteka poput Napster-a, Kazaa-e i BitTorrrent-a, koje su prve omogućile ljudima da dele muziku i filmove bez posrednika.

Satoshi je dizajnirao Bitcoin kako bi omogućio ljudima da razmenjuju e-keš, elektronski keš, bez prolaska preko posrednika na približno isti način.

Softver je otvorenog koda, što znači da svako može videti kako funkcioniše i doprineti tome.

Ne treba da verujemo ni u šta što je Satoshi napisao u svom postu o tome kako softver radi.

Možemo pogledati kod i sami proveriti kako to funkcioniše. Štaviše, možemo promeniti funkcionalnost sistema promenom koda.

„Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki …“

Satoshi napominje da je sistem decentralizovan kako bi se razlikovao od sistema koji imaju centralnu kontrolu.

Prethodne pokušaje stvaranja digitalne gotovine poput DigiCash-a od strane Davida Chaum-a podržavao je centralni server, računar ili skup računara koji je bio odgovoran za izdavanje i verifikaciju plaćanja pod kontrolom jedne korporacije.

Takve, centralno kontrolisane privatne šeme novca, bile su osuđene na propast; ljudi se ne mogu osloniti na novac koji može nestati kada kompanija prestane sa poslovanjem, bude hakovana, pretrpi pad servera ili je zatvori vlada.

Bitcoin održava mreža pojedinaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Da bi se Bitcoin isključio, bilo bi potrebno isključiti desetine do stotine hiljada računara širom sveta u isto vreme, zauvek, od kojih su mnogi na nepoznatim lokacijama.

Bila bi to beznadežna igra, jer bi svaki napad ove prirode jednostavno podstakao stvaranje novih Bitcoin čvorova ili računara na mreži.

„… sve se zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju“

Internet, a u stvari i većina savremenih računarskih sistema, izgrađeni su na kriptografiji, metodi prikrivanja informacija, tako da je može dekodirati samo primalac informacije.

Kako se Bitcoin oslobađa potrebe za poverenjem? Umesto da verujemo nekome ko kaže „Ja sam Alisa“ ili „Imam 10 $ na računu“, možemo koristiti kriptografsku matematiku da bismo izneli iste činjenice na način koji je vrlo lako verifikovati od strane primaoca dokaza ali ga je nemoguće falsifikovati.

Bitcoin u svom dizajnu koristi kriptografsku matematiku kako bi učesnicima omogućio da provere ponašanje svih ostalih učesnika, bez poverenja u bilo koju centralnu stranku.

„Moramo im verovati [bankama] sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune“

Za razliku od korišćenja vašeg bankovnog računa, sistema digitalnog plaćanja ili kreditne kartice, Bitcoin omogućava dvema stranama da obavljaju transakcije bez davanje bilo kakvih ličnih podataka.

Centralizovana skladišta potrošačkih podataka koji se čuvaju u bankama, kompanijama sa kreditnim karticama, procesorima plaćanja i vladama, predstavljaju pravu poslasticu za hakere.

Kao dokaz Satoshi-jeve poente služi primer iz 2017. godine kada je Equifax masovono kompromitovan, kada su hakeri ukrali identifikacione i finansijske podatke za više od 140 miliona ljudi.

Bitcoin odvaja finansijske transakcije od stvarnih identiteta.

Na kraju krajeva, kada nekome damo fizički novac, on nema potrebu da zna ko smo, niti treba da brinemo da će nakon naše razmene moći da iskoristi neke informacije koje smo mu dali da ukrade još našeg novca.

Zašto ne bismo očekivali isto, ili čak i bolje, od digitalnog novca?

„Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja.“

Pojam tradicionalna valuta, odnosi se na valutu izdatu od strane vlade i centralne banke, koju vlada proglašava zakonskim sredstvom plaćanja.

Istorijski, novac je nastao od stvari koje je bilo teško proizvesti, koje su bile lake za proveravanje i transport, poput školjki, staklenih perli, srebra i zlata.

Kad god bi se nešto koristilo kao novac, postojalo je iskušenje da se stvori više toga.

Ako bi neko pronašao vrhunsku tehnologiju za brzo stvaranje velike količine nečega, ta stvar bi izgubila vrednost.

Evropski naseljenici uspeli su da liše afrički kontinent bogatstva trgujući staklenim perlicama koje su se lako proizvodile za ljudske robove.

Isto se dogodilo sa američkim indijancima, kada su kolonisti otkrili način brze proizvodnje vampum školjki, koje su starosedeoci smatrali retkim.

Vremenom, širom sveta ljudi su shvatili da je samo zlato dovoljno retko da deluje kao novac, bez straha da bi neko drugi mogao da ga stvori u velikim količinama.

Polako smo prešli sa svetske ekonomije koja je koristila zlato kao novac na onu gde su banke izdavale papirne sertifikate kao dokaz posedovanja tog zlata.

Nixon je okončao međunarodnu konvertibilnost američkog dolara u zlato 1971. godine, privremenim rešenjem, koje je ubrzo postalo trajno.

Kraj zlatnog standarda omogućio je vladama i centralnim bankama da imaju punu dozvolu da povećavaju novčanu masu po svojoj volji, razredjujući vrednost svake novčanice u opticaju, poznatije kao umanjenje vrednosti.

Iako je izdata od strane vlade, suštinska tradicionalna valuta je novac koji svi znamo i svakodnevno koristimo, ipak je relativno novo iskustvo u opsegu svetske istorije.

Moramo verovati našim vladama da ne zloupotrebljavaju njegovo štamparije, i ne treba nam puno muke da nadjemo primere kršenja tog poverenja.

U autokratskim i centralno planiranim režimima gde vlada ima prst direktno na mašini za novac, kao što je Venecuela, valuta je postala gotovo bezvredna.

Venecuelanski Bolivar prešao je sa 2 bolivara za 1 američki dolar, koliko je vredeo 2009. godine, na 250.000 bolivara za 1 američki dolar 2019. godine.

Pogledajte koliko novčanica je bilo potrebno za kupovinu piletine u Venecueli posle hiperinflacije.

Satoshi je želeo da ponudi alternativu tradicionalnoj valuti čija se ponuda uvek nepredvidivo širi.

Da bi sprečilo umanjenje vrednosti, Satoshi je dizajnirao novčani sistem gde je zaliha bila fiksna i izdavana po predvidljivoj i nepromenjivoj stopi.

Postojaće samo 21 milion Bitcoin-a.

Međutim, svaki Bitcoin se može podeliti na 100 miliona jedinica koje se sada nazivaju satoshis (sats-ovi), što će činiti ukupno 2,1 kvadriliona satoshi-a u opticaju oko 2140. godine.

Pre Bitcoin-a nije bilo moguće sprečiti beskrajnu reprodukciju digitalnih sredstava.

Kopirati digitalnu knjigu, audio datoteku ili video zapis i poslati ga prijatelju, je jeftino i lako.

Jedini izuzeci od toga su digitalna sredstva koja kontrolišu posrednici.

Na primer, kada iznajmite film sa iTunes-a, možete ga gledati na vašem uređaju samo zato što iTunes kontroliše distribuciju tog filma i može ga zaustaviti nakon perioda njegovog iznajmljivanja.

Slično tome, vaša banka kontroliše vaš digitalni novac. Zadatak banke je da vodi evidenciju koliko novca imate.

Ako ga prenesete nekom drugom, oni će odobriti ili odbiti takav prenos.

Bitcoin je prvi digitalni sistem koji sprovodi oskudicu bez posrednika i prvo je sredstvo poznato čovečanstvu čija je nepromenljiva ponuda i raspored izdavanja poznat unapred.

Ni plemeniti metali poput zlata nemaju ovo svojstvo, jer uvek možemo iskopati sve više i više zlata ukoliko je to isplativo.

Zamislite da otkrijemo asteroid koji sadrži deset puta više zlata nego što ga imamo na zemlji.

Šta bi se dogodilo sa cenom zlata uzimajući u obzir tako obilnu ponudu? Bitcoin je imun na takva otkrića i manipulisanje nabavkom.

Jednostavno je nemoguće proizvesti više od toga (21 miliona).

„Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve. […] Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac “

Naše trenutne metode obezbeđivanja novca, poput stavljanja u banku, oslanjaju se na poverenje nekome drugom da će obaviti taj posao.

Poverenje u takvog posrednika ne zahteva samo sigurnost da on neće učiniti nešto zlonamerno ili glupo, već i da vlada neće zapleniti ili zamrznuti vaša sredstva vršeći pritisak na ovog posrednika.

Međutim, videli smo bezbroj puta da vlade mogu, i zaista uskraćuju pristup novcu kada se osećaju ugroženo.

Nekom ko živi u Sjedinjenim Državama ili nekoj drugoj visoko regulisanoj ekonomiji možda zvuči glupo da razmišlja da se probudi sa oduzetim novcem, ali to se događa stalno.

PayPal mi je zamrzao sredstva jednostavno zato par meseci nisam koristio svoj račun.

Trebalo mi je više od nedelju dana da vratim pristup „svom“ novcu.

Srećan sam što živim u Europi, gde bih se bar mogao nadati da ću potražiti neko pravno rešenje ako mi PayPal zamrzne sredstva i gde imam osnovno poverenje da moja vlada i banka neće ukrasti moj novac.

Mnogo gore stvari su se dogodile, i trenutno se dešavaju, u zemljama sa manje slobode.

Banke su se zatvorile tokom kolapsa valuta u Grčkoj.

Banke na Kipru su koristile kaucije da konfiskuju sredstva od svojih klijenata.

Indijska vlada je proglasila određene novčanice bezvrednim.

Bivši SSSR, u kojem sam odrastao, imao je ekonomiju pod kontrolom vlade što je dovelo do ogromnih nestašica robe.

Bilo je nezakonito posedovati strane valute kao što je američki dolar.

Kada smo poželeli da odemo, mojoj porodici je bilo dozvoljeno da zameni samo ograničenu količinu novca po osobi za američke dolare po zvaničnom kursu koji je bio u velikoj meri različit od pravog kursa slobodnog tržišta.

U stvari, vlada nam je oduzela ono malo bogatstva koje smo imali koristeći gvozdeni stisak na ekonomiji i kretanju kapitala.

Autokratske zemlje imaju tendenciju da sprovode strogu ekonomsku kontrolu, sprečavajući ljude da na slobodnom tržištu povuku svoj novac iz banaka, iznesu ga iz zemlje ili da ga razmene u ne još uvek bezvredne valute poput američkog dolara.

To omogućava vladinoj slobodnoj vladavini da primeni sulude ekonomske eksperimente poput socijalističkog sistema SSSR-a.

Bitcoin se ne oslanja na poverenje u treću stranu da bi osigurao vaš novac.

Umesto toga, Bitcoin onemogućava drugima pristup vašim novčićima bez jedinstvenog ključa koji imate samo vi, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Držeći Bitcoin, držite ključeve sopstvene finansijske slobode. Bitcoin razdvaja novac i državu

„Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje […] poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić“

Mreža se odnosi na ideju da je gomila računara povezana i da mogu međusobno slati poruke.

Reč distribuirano znači da ne postoji centralna stranka koja kontroliše, već da svi učesnici koordiniraju medjusobno kako bi mreža bila uspešna.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole, bitno je znati da niko ne vara. Ideja dvostruke potrošnje odnosi se na mogućnost trošenja istog novca dva puta.

Fizički novac odlazi iz vaše ruke kad ga potrošite. Međutim, digitalne transakcije se mogu kopirati baš kao muzika ili filmovi.

Kada novac šaljete preko banke, oni se pobrinu da isti novac ne možete da prebacujete dva puta.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole potreban nam je način da sprečimo ovu vrstu dvostruke potrošnje, koja je u suštini ista kao i falsifikovanje novca.

Satoshi opisuje da učesnici u Bitcoin mreži rade zajedno kako bi vremenski označili (doveli u red) transakcije kako bismo znali šta je bilo prvo.

Zbog toga možemo odbiti sve buduće pokušaje trošenja istog novca.

Satoshi se uhvatio u koštac sa nekoliko zanimljivih tehničkih problema kako bi rešio probleme privatnosti, uništavanja vrednosti i centralne kontrole u ​​trenutnim monetarnim sistemima.

Na kraju je stvorio peer to peer mrežu kojoj se svako mogao pridružiti bez otkrivanja svog identiteta ili potrebe da veruje bilo kom drugom učesniku.

Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

Doprinosi izvornom kodu Bitcoina

Kada je Bitcoin pokrenut, samo nekolicina ljudi ga je koristila i pokrenula Bitcoin softver na svojim računarima za napajanje Bitcoin mreže.

Većina ljudi u to vreme mislila je da je to šala ili da će se otkriti ozbiljni nedostaci u dizajnu sistema koji će ga učiniti neizvodljivim.

Vremenom se mreži pridružilo sve više ljudi koji su pomoću svojih računara dodali sigurnost mreži.

Ljudi su počeli da menjaju Bitcoin-e za robu i usluge, dajući mu stvarnu vrednost. Pojavile su se menjačnice valuta koje su menjale Bitcoin-e za gotovo sve tradicionalne valute na svetu.

Deset godina nakon izuma, Bitcoin koriste milioni ljudi sa desetinama do stotinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću besplatni Bitcoin softver, koji se razvija od strane stotina dobrovoljaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Bitcoin mreža je porasla kako bi obezbedila vrednost veću od stotine biliona dolara.

Računari koji učestvuju u zaštiti Bitcoin mreže poznati su kao rudari/majneri.

Oni rade u industrijskim operacijama širom sveta, ulažući milione dolara u specijalni rudarski hardver koji radi samo jedno: pobrinuti se da je Bitcoin najsigurnija mreža na planeti.

Rudari troše električnu energiju kako bi transakcije Bitcoin-a učinile sigurnim od modifikacija. Budući da se rudari međusobno takmiče za oskudan broj Bitcoin-a proizvedenih dnevno, oni uvek moraju da pronalaze najjeftinije izvore energije na planeti da bi ostali profitabilni.

Rudari rade na različitim mestima, od hidroelektrana u dalekim krajevima Kine do vetroparkova u Teksasu, do kanadskih naftnih polja koja proizvode gas koji bi u suprotnom bio odzračen ili spaljen u atmosferi.

Iako je Bitcoin popularna tema i o njemu se često raspravlja u medijima, procenjujemo da je samo nekoliko miliona ljudi na svetu počelo da redovno štedi Bitcoin.

Za mnoge ljude, posebno za one koji nikada nisu živeli pod represivnim režimima, ovaj izum novog oblika digitalnog novca izvan kontrole vlade može biti veoma izazovan za razumevanje i prihvatanje.

Zato sam ja ovde. Želim da vam pomognem da razumete Bitcoin i budete gospodar svoje budućnosti!

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

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Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Definisanje novca
2. Šta je sredstvo razmene?
3. Šta je obračunska jedinica?
4. Šta je zaliha vrednosti?
5. Zašto su važne funkcije novca?
6. Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije
7. Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle
8. Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar
9. Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?
10. Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?
11. Efikasnija Ušteda Novca
12. Zasluge
13. Molim vas da šerujete!

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Google izveštava o stalnom povećanju interesa u svetu za pitanje „Šta je novac?“ koji se postavlja iz godine u godinu, od 2004. do 2021., a sa naglim porastom nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine.

I izgleda se da niko nema dobar odgovor za to.

Godišnji proseci mesečnih interesa za pretragu. 100 predstavlja najveći interes za pretragu tokom čitavog perioda, koji se dogodio u decembru 2019. Podaci sa Google Trends-a.

Međutim, odgovaranje na ovo naizgled jednostavno pitanje pomoći će vam da razjasnite ulogu novca u vašem životu. Jednom kada shvatite kako novac funkcioniše, tačno ćete videti i zašto svet danas ludi – i šta učiniti povodom toga. Zato hajde da se udubimo u to.

Na pitanje šta je novac, većina ljudi otvori svoje novčanike i pokaže nekoliko novčanica – “evo, ovo je novac!”

Ali po čemu se ove novčanice razlikuju od stranica vaše omiljene knjige? Pa, naravno, zavod za izradu novčanica te zemlje je odštampao te novčanice iz vašeg novčanika kako bi se oduprla falsifikovanju, i svi ih koriste da bi kupili odredjene stvari.

Međutim, Nemačka Marka imala je sva ova svojstva u prošlosti – ali preduzeća danas ne prihvataju te novčanice. Zapravo, građani Nemačke su početkom dvadesetih godina prošlog veka spaljivali papirne Marke kako bi grejali svoje domove. Marka je imala veću vrednost kao papir za potpalu nego kao novac!

1923. nemačka valuta poznata kao Marka bila je jeftinija od uglja i drveta!

Pa šta to čini novac, novcem?

Ispostavilo se da ovo nije pitanje na koje je lako dati odgovor.

Definisanje novca

Novac nije fizička stvar poput novčanice dolara. Novac je društveni sistem koji koristimo da bismo olakšali trgovinu robom i uslugama. Međutim, tokom istorije fizička monetarna dobra igrala su ključnu ulogu u društvenom sistemu novca, često kao znakovi koji predstavljaju vrednost u monetarnom sistemu. Ovaj sistem ima tri funkcije: 1) Sredstvo Razmene, 2) Obračunsku Jedinicu i 3) Zalihu Vrednosti.

Odakle dolaze ove funkcije, i zašto su one vredne?

Šta je sredstvo razmene?

Sredstvo razmene je neko dobro koje se obično razmenjuje za drugo dobro. Najčešće objašnjenje za to kako su se pojavila sredstva razmene glasi otprilike ovako: Boris ima ječam i želeo bi da kupi ovcu od Marka. Marko ima ovce, ali želi samo piliće. Ana ima piliće, ali ona ne želi ječam ili ovce.

To se naziva problem sticaja potreba: dve strane moraju da žele ono što druga ima da bi mogle da trguju. Ako se želje dve osobe ne podudaraju, oni moraju da pronađu druge ljude sa kojima će trgovati dok svi ne pronađu dobro koje žele.

Ljudi koji trguju robom i uslugama moraju da imaju potrebe koje se podudaraju.

Vremenom, veoma je verovatno da će se određena vrsta robe, poput pšenice, pojaviti kao sredstvo razmene jer su je mnogi ljudi želeli. Uzimajući pšenicu kao primer: pšenica je rešila “sticaje potreba” u mnogim zanatima, jer čak i ako onaj koji prima pšenicu a nije želeo da je koristi za sebe, znao je da će je neko drugi želeti.

Ovo nazivamo prodajnost imovine.

Pšenica je dobar primer dobra za prodaju jer svi moraju da jedu, a od pšenice se pravi hleb. Pšenica ima vrednost kao sastojak hleba i kao dobro koje olakšava trgovinu rešavanjem problema „sticaja potreba“.

Razmislite o svojoj želji da dobijete više novčanica u eurima ili drugoj valuti. Ne možete da jedete novčanice da biste preživeli, a i ne bi vam bile od velike koristi ako poželite da ih koristite kao građevinski materijal za vašu kuću. Međutim, znate da sa tim novčanicama možete da kupite hranu i kuću.

Stvarne fizičke novčanice su beskorisne za vas. Novčanice su vam dragocene samo zato što će ih drugi prihvatiti za stvari koje su vama korisne.

Tokom dugog perioda istorije, novac je evoluirao do te mere da monetarno dobro može imati vrednost, a da to dobro ne služi za bilo koju drugu ‘suštinsku’ upotrebu, poput hrane ili energije. Umesto toga, njegova upotreba je zaliha vrednosti i jednostavna zamena za drugu robu u bilo kom trenutku koji poželite.

Šta jedno dobro čini poželjnijim i prodajnijim od drugog dobra?

Deljivost

Definicija: Sposobnost podele dobra na manje količine.

Loš Primer: Dijamante je teško podeliti na manje komade. Za zajednicu od hiljada ljudi koji dnevno izvrše milione transakcija, dijamanti čine loše sredstvo razmene. Previše su retki i nedeljivi da bi se koristili za mnoge transakcije.

Ujednačenost

Definicija: Sličnost pojedinačnih jedinica odredjenog dobra.

Loš Primer: Krave nisu ujednačene – neke su veće, neke manje, neke bolesne, neke zdrave. Sa druge strane, unca čistog zlata je jednolična – jedna unca je potpuno ista kao sledeća. Ovo svojstvo se takođe često naziva zamenljivost.

Prenosivost

Definicija: Lakoća transporta dobra.

Loš Primer: Krava nije baš prenosiva. Zlatnici su prilično prenosivi. Papirne novčanice su još prenošljivije. Knjiga u kojoj se jednostavno beleži vlasništvo nad tim vrednostima (poput Rai kamenog sistema ili digitalnog bankovnog računa) je neverovatno prenosiva, jer nema fizičkog dobra koje treba nositi sa sobom za kupovinu. Postoji samo sistem za evidentiranje vlasništva nad tim vrednostima u nematerijalnom obliku.

Kako dobro postaje sredstvo razmene?

Dobra postaju, i ostaju sredstva razmene zbog svoje univerzalne potražnje, takođe poznate kao njihova prodajnost, čemu pomažu svojstva koja su gore nabrojana.

Mnogo različitih dobara mogu u različitoj meri delovati kao sredstva razmene u ekonomiji. Danas, naša globalna ekonomija koristi valute koje izdaju države, zlato, pa čak i robu poput nafte kao sredstvo razmene.

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Šta je obračunska jedinica?

Stvari se komplikuju kada u ekonomiji postoji mnogo robe koja se prodaje. Čak i sa samo 5 dobara, postoji 10 “kurseva razmene” između svake robe kojih svi u ekonomiji moraju da se sete: 1 svinja se menja za 15 pilića, 1 pile se menja za 15 litara mleka, desetak jaja se menja za 15 litara mleka, i tako dalje. Ako ekonomija ima 50 dobara, među njima postoji 1.225 “kurseva razmene”!

Sredstvo za merenje vrednosti

Zamislite obračunsku jedinicu kao sredstvo za merenje vrednosti. Umesto da se sećamo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa drugim dobrima, mi samo treba da se setimo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa jednim dobrom – obračunskom jedinicom.

Umesto da se setimo 1.225 kurseva razmene kada imamo 50 proizvoda na tržištu, mi treba da zapamtimo samo 50 cena.

Na primer, ne treba da se sećamo da litar mleka vredi 1/15 piletine ili desetak jaja, možemo da se samo setimo da litar mleka košta 1USD.

Poređenje dobara je lakše sa obračunskom jedinicom

Obračunska jedinica takođe olakšava upoređivanje vrednosti i donošenje odluka. Zamislite da pokušavate da kupite par Nike Air Jordan patika kada ih jedan prodavac prodaje za jedno pile, a drugi za 50 klipova kukuruza.

Šta je zaliha vrednosti?

Do sada smo gledali samo primere transakcija koje se odvijaju u određenom trenutku u vremenu.

Međutim, ljudi vrše transakcije tokom vremena – oni štede novac i troše ga kasnije. Da bi odredjeno dobro moglo da funkcioniše pravilno kao monetarno dobro, ono treba da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Novac koji vremenom dobro drži vrednost daje njegovom imaocu više izbora kada će taj novac da potroši.

To znači da prodajnost dobra uključuje njegovu sposobnost da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Šta jedno dobro čini boljom zalihom vrednosti od drugog dobra?

Trajnost

Definicija: Sposobnost dobra da vremenom zadrži svoj oblik.

Loš Primer: Jagode čine lošu zalihu vrednosti jer se lako oštete i brzo trunu.

Odluka je daleko lakša ako jedan prodavac naplaćuje 150 USD, a drugi 200 USD – odmah je očigledno koja je bolja ponuda jer su vrednosti izražene u istoj jedinici.

Teške za Proizvodnju

Definicija: Teškoće koje ljudi imaju u proizvodnji veće količine dobra.

Loš Primer: Papirne novčanice predstavljaju lošu zalihu vrednosti jer banke i vlade mogu jeftino da ih naprave.

Sa zlatom je suprotno – u ponudi se nalazi ograničena količina uprkos velikoj potražnji za njim, jednostavno zato što ga je vrlo teško iskopati iz zemlje. Ova ograničena ponuda osigurava da svaka jedinica zlata održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Kako dobra postaju zalihe vrednosti?

Dobro postaje zaliha vrednosti ako se vremenom pokaže trajnim i teškim za proizvodnju.

Samo će vreme pokazati da li je neko dobro zaista trajno i da li ga je teško proizvesti. Zbog toga neki oblici novca su postojali vekovima pre nego što je neko otkrio način da ih proizvede više, i na kraju se to dobro više nije koristilo kao novac.

Ovo je priča o školjkama, Rai kamenju i mnogim drugim oblicima novca tokom istorije.

Zlato je primer dobra koje je hiljadama godina služilo kao dobra zaliha vrednosti. Zlato se ne razgrađuje tokom vremena i još uvek ga je teško proizvesti. Hiljadama godina alhemičari su bezuspešno pokušavali da sintetišu zlato iz jeftinih materijala.

Čak i sa današnjim naprednim rudarskim tehnikama, svake godine svi svetski rudnici zlata zajedno mogu da proizvedu samo 2% od ukupne ponude zlata u prometu.

Teškoće u proizvodnji zlata daju izuzetno visok odnos “zaliha i protoka”: zaliha je broj postojećih jedinica, a protok su nove jedinice stvorene tokom određenog vremenskog perioda. Svake godine se stvori vrlo malo novih jedinica zlata, iako je potražnja za zlatom obično vrlo velika.

Kombinujući ovo sa deljivošću, ujednačenošću i prenosivošću zlata, nije ni čudo što je zlato čovečanstvu služilo kao monetarno dobro tokom poslednjih 5.000 godina. Pošto je zlato teško proizvesti, možemo ga nazvati teškim novcem (hard money).

Kao rezultat toga, svoju vrednost je u velikoj meri zadržao kroz milenijume. Cena većine dobara i usluga u pogledu zlata zapravo se vremenom smanjivala kao rezultat tehnoloških inovacija, koje sve proizvode čine jeftinijim.

Uzmimo na primer cene hrane prema praćenju Kancelarije za hranu i poljoprivredu UN-a: sa obzirom na skokove u poljoprivrednoj tehnologiji tokom poslednjih 60 godina, cene hrane drastično su pale kada se procenjuju u zlatu. To čak i važi uprkos činjenici da obični ljudi retko koriste zlato za kupovinu stvari.

Cene hrane su padale u pogledu zlata tokom proteklih 60 godina, i mnogo pre toga (FAO Indeks Cena Hrane u Zlatu)

Zaliha vrednosti omogućava ljudima da uštede novac kako bi mogli da ga ulažu u pokretanje preduzeća i obrazovanje, povećavajući produktivnost društva.

Monetarna dobra koja dobro čuvaju vrednost takođe podstiču dugoročniji pogled na život, ili kratke vremenske preference. Pojedinac može da radi 10 godina, uštedi odredjeno monetarno dobro koje je dobra zaliha vrednosti, i nema potrebe da se plaši da će njegova ušteđevina biti izbrisana krahom tržišta ili povećanjem ponude tog dobra.

Zašto su važne funkcije novca?

Kada neki oblik novca izgubi bilo koju od svojih važnih funkcija kao što su sredstvo razmene, obračunska jedinica i zaliha vrednosti, celokupna ekonomija i društvo mogu da se rastrgnu.

Tokom istorije često vidimo grupe ljudi koje eksploatišu druge iskorišćavajući nesporazume o novcu i važnosti njegovih funkcija.

Sledeće, proći ću kroz istoriju novca, prvo hipotetički da bih ilustrovao poentu, a zatim ću preći na stvarne istorijske primere. Kroz ove primere videćemo štetne efekte na društva u slučajevima kada se izgubi samo jedna od tih ključnih funkcija novca.

Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije

Kroz istoriju, mnoga dobra su dolazila i odlazila kao oblici novca. Na žalost, kada se neki oblik novca ukine, ponekad postoji grupa ljudi koja eksploatiše drugi oblik manipulišući tim novcem.

Hajde da pogledamo hipotetičko selo zvano Njutonija da bismo razumeli kako dolazi do ove eksploatacije.

Zelene perle postaju Novac

Tokom stotina godina ribolova u obližnjoj reci, stanovnici Njutonije sakupljali su zelene perle iz vode. Zrnca su mala, lagana, izdržljiva, jednolična i retko se pojavljuju u reci. Ljudi prvo priželjkuju perle zbog svoje lepote. Na kraju, seljani shvataju da svi drugi žele perle – one se vrlo lako mogu prodati. Zrnca uskoro postaju sredstvo razmene i obračunska jedinica u selu: pile je 5 zrna, vreća jabuka 2 zrna, krava 80 zrna.

Ukupna ponuda perli je prilično konstantna i cene se vremenom ne menjaju mnogo. Seoski starešina je uveren da može da se opustiti u poslednjim danima živeći od svoje velike zalihe perli.

Alhemičar stvara više perli

Seoski alhemičar je poželeo da bude bogat čovek, ali nije voleo da vredno radi na tome. Umesto da traži perle u reci ili da prodaje vrednu robu drugim seljanima, on sedeo je u svojoj laboratoriji. Na kraju je otkrio kako da lako stvori stotine perli sa malo peska i vatre.

Seljani koji su tragali za perlama u reci bili su srećni ako bi svaki dan pronašli po 1 zrno. Alhemičar je mogao da proizvede stotine uz malo napora.

Alhemičar troši svoje perle

Budući da je bio prilično zao, alhemičar nije svoj metod pravljenja zrna delio ni sa kim drugim. Stvorio je sebi još više perli i počeo da ih troši za dobra na tržištu u Njutoniji. Tokom sledećih meseci, alhemičar je kupio farmu pilića, nekoliko krava, finu svilu, posteljine i ogromno imanje. On je imao priliku da kupi ova dobra po normalnim cenama na tržištu.

Alhemičarevo trošenje ostavljalo je seljanima mnogo perli, ali malo njihove vredne robe.

Svi seljani su se osećali bogatima – imali su tone perli! Međutim, polako su primetili da i svi ostali takodje imaju tone.

Cene počinju da rastu

Uzgajivač pilića primetio je da sva roba koju je trebalo da kupi na pijaci poskupela. Džak jabuka sada se prodaje za 100 perli – 50 puta više od njihove cene pre nekoliko meseci!

Iako je sada imao hiljade perli, uskoro bi mogao da ostane bez njih zbog ovih cena. Pitao se – da li zaista može sebi da priušti da prodaje svoje piliće za samo 5 perli po komadu? Morao je i on da podigne svoje cene.

Jednostavno rečeno, kao rezultat alhemičarevog trošenja njegovih novostvorenih perli, bilo je previše perli koje su jurile premalo dobara – pa su cene porasle.

Kupci robe bili su spremni da potroše više perli da bi kupili potrebna dobra. Prodavci robe su trebali da naplate više da bi bili sigurni da su zaradili dovoljno da kupe potrebna dobra za sebe.

Budući da su cene svih dobara porasle, možemo reći da se vrednost svake perle smanjila.

Nejednakost bogatstva raste

Seoski starešina, koji je vredno radio da sačuva hiljade perli, sada se našao osiromašenim i gladnim. U međuvremenu, alhemičar je udobno sedeo na svom velikom imanju sa kravama, pilićima i slugama koji su se brinuli za svaki njegov hir.

Alhemičar je efikasno ukrao bogatstvo celog sela, tako što je jeftino proizvodio perle i koristio ih za kupovinu vredne robe.

Ono što je najvažnije, kupio je robu pre nego što je tržište shvatilo da je više perli u opticaju i da ima manje robe, što je dovelo do rasta cena. Ova dodatna proizvodnja perli nije dodala korisnu robu ili usluge selu.

Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle

Nažalost, priča o alhemičaru iz Njutonije nije u potpunosti hipotetička. Ovaj prenos bogatstva kroz stvaranje novca ima istorijske i moderne presedane.

Na primer, afrička plemena su nekada koristila staklene perle, poznate kao “agri perle”, kao sredstvo razmene. U to vreme plemenskim ljudima je bilo veoma teško da prave staklene perle, i one su predstavljale težak novac unutar njihovog plemenskog društva.

Niko nije mogao jeftino da proizvede perle i koristiti ih za kupovinu skupe, vredne robe poput kuća, hrane i odeće.

Sve se promenilo kada su stigli Evropljani, i primetili upotrebu staklenih perli kao novca.

U to vreme, Evropljani su mogli jeftino da stvaraju staklo u velikim količinama. Kao rezultat toga, Evropljani su počeli tajno da uvoze perle i koriste ih za kupovinu dobara, usluga i robova od Afrikanaca.

Vremenom se iz Afrike izvlačila vredna roba i ljudi, dok je plemenima ostajalo mnogo perli i malo robe.

Perle su izgubile veći deo vrednosti zbog inflacije uzrokovane snabdevanjem od strane Evropljana.

Rezultat je bio osiromašenje afričkih plemena i bogaćenje Evropljana, kako to ovde objašnjava monetarni istoričar Bezant Denier.

Dragocena roba je kupljena jeftino proizvedenim monetarnim dobrom.

Profitiranje na proizvodnji novca: Emisiona dobit

Ova priča ilustruje kako se bogatstvo prenosi kada jedna grupa može jeftino da proizvodi monetarno dobro.

Razlika između troškova proizvodnje monetarnog dobra i vrednosti tog monetarnog dobra poznata je kao emisiona dobit, eng. seignorage.

Kada je monetarno dobro mnogo vrednije od troškova proizvodnje, ljudi će proizvesti više od monetarnog dobra da bi uhvatili profit od emisione dobiti.

Na kraju će ova povećana ponuda dovesti do pada vrednosti monetarnog dobra. To je zbog zakona ponude i potražnje: kada se ponuda povećava, cena (poznata i kao vrednost) dobra opada.

Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar

U priči o Njutoniji, alhemičar je otkrio način da se od malo peska jeftino stvori više zelenih perli. To se u stvarnosti odigralo kroz trgovinu između Evropljana i Afrikanaca, pričom o agri perlama. Međutim, ove priče su pomalo zastarele – mi više ne trgujemo robom za perle.

Da bismo nas doveli do modernog doba, hajde da promenimo neka imena u našoj priči:

1. Selo Njutonija postaje država koja se zove Kejnsland
2. Alhemičar postaje bankar
3. Seoski starešina postaje penzioner
4. Zelene perle postaju zlato, koje niko ne može jeftinije da stvori – čak ni bankar.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Zlato

Kao i u stvarnosti, bankar u ovoj priči nema formulu ili trik da stvori više zlata. Međutim, bankar bezbedno čuva zlato u vlasništvu svakog građanina Kejnslanda. Bankar daje svakom građaninu po jednu potvrdu za svaku uncu zlata koje ima u svom trezoru.

Te potvrde se mogu iskoristiti u bilo koje vreme za stvarno zlato. Papirne potvrde ili novčanice su mnogo pogodnije za plaćanje nego nošenje zlata kroz supermarket.

Građani su srećni – oni imaju prikladno sredstvo plaćanja u vidu bankarevih novčanica, i znaju da niko ne može da ukrade njihovo bogatstvo falsifikujući više zlata.

Građani na kraju počinju da plaćaju u potpunosti papirnim novčanicama, ne trudeći se nikad da zamene svoje novčanice za zlato. Na kraju, novčanice postaju “dobre kao i zlato” – svaka predstavlja fiksnu količinu zlata u bankarevom trezoru.

Ukupno kruži 1.000.000 novčanica, od kojih je svaka otkupljiva za jednu uncu zlata. 1.000.000 unci zlata sedi u bankarevom trezoru. Svaka novčanica je u potpunosti podržana u zlatu.

Starešina koji je sačuvao sve svoje perle u priči o Njutoniji sada je penzioner u Kejnslandu, koji svoje zlato drži u banci i planira da ugodno živi od novčanica koje je dobio zauzvrat.

Hajde da u ovu priču dodamo i novi lik: premijera Kejnslanda. Premijer naplaćuje porez od građana i koristi ga za plaćanje javnih usluga poput policije i vojske. Premijer takođe drži vladino zlato kod bankara.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Dug

Premijer želi da osigura da nacionalno zlato ostane na sigurnom, pa banku štiti policijom. Bankar i premijer se zbog toga zbližavaju, pa premijer traži uslugu. Traži od bankara da kreira 200.000 novčanica za premijera, uz obećanje da će mu premijer vratiti za pet godina. Premijeru su novčanice potrebne za finansiranje rata. Građani Kejnslanda borili su se protiv većih poreza zbog finansiranja rata, pa je morao da se obrati bankaru.

Bankar se slaže da izradi novčanice, ali pod jednim uslovom: bankar uzima deo od 10.000 novčanica za sebe. Premijer prihvata posao kojim bankar ’kupuje državni dug’. Sada je u opticaju 1.200.000 novčanica, potpomognutih kombinacijom 1.000.000 unci zlata i ugovorom o dugu sa vladom za 200.000 novčanica.

Premijer troši svoje nove novčanice na bombe kupujući ih od dobavljača iz domaće vojne industrije, a bankar sebi kupuje veliki luksuzni stan.

Dobavljač iz vojne industrije koristi sve nove novčanice koje je dobio od premijera da kupi amonijum nitrat (đubrivo koje se koristi u bombama) za proizvodnju bombi. Sve njegove kupovine povećavaju cenu đubriva za uzgajivače pšenice u Kejnslandu, pa oni podižu cenu pšenice.

Kao uzrok toga, pekar koji kupuje pšenicu treba da podigne cenu svog hleba da bi ostao u poslu. Na taj način cene u Kejnslandu počinju da rastu, baš kao što su to činile u Njutoniji kada su nove perle ušle u opticaj.

Papirne Novčanice Više Ne Predstavljaju Zlato

Penzioner nailazi na finansijski časopis u kojem se pominje premijerov dogovor da se zaduži za finansiranje rata. Obzirom da je mudar, on zna da bombe loše vraćaju ulaganje i sumnja da će premijer ikada da vrati svoj dug.

Ako on ‘podmiri’ svoj dug, to bi ostavilo 1.200.000 novčanica u opticaju sa samo 1.000.000 unci zlata da bi ih podržalo, obezvređujući njegovu ušteđevinu. Već oseća stisak u džepu zbog porasta cena, i on odlučuje da se uputi u lokalnu banku i preda svoje novčanice i zameni ih za zlato, koje niko ne može da napravi u većoj količini.

Kada penzioner stigne u banku, on zatiče i mnoge druge okupljene oko banke. Svi oni se nadaju da će uzeti zlato koje predstavljaju njihove novčanice. Građani Kejnslanda sa pravom se plaše da njihove novčanice gube na vrednosti – oni to već osećaju zbog porasta cena.

Vrata su zaključana, sa obaveštenjem bankara na njima:

Po nalogu premijera, onom koji se plaši za stabilnost ove bankarske institucije, ova banka više neće podržavati konvertibilnost papirnih novčanica u zlato. Hvala vam!

Gomila se razilazi, ostavljena sa jednim izborom: da zadrže svoje novčanice, koje sada vrede manje od 1 unce zlata. Građani sa dovoljno finansijske stabilnosti odlučuju da ulože svoje novčanice u kupovinu akcija banke i kompanija vojne industrije, koje dobro posluju jer mogu da kupuju stvari pre nego što se povećaju tržišne cene.

Mnogi ljudi nisu u mogućnosti da investiraju – oni moraju da gledaju kako njihove zarade stagniraju i kako njihova ušteđevina polako ali sigurno gubi vrednost.

Penzioner, koji se nadao da će živeti od novčanica koje je zaradio tokom svojih 40 radnih godina, sada 40 sati nedeljno provodi iza kase u lokalnoj prodavnici, pitajući se gde je sve pošlo po zlu.

Dug Nikada Nije Otplaćen

Prošlo je nekoliko godina, a premijerov dug prema banci dolazi na naplatu. Budući da je potrošio svih 200.000 novčanica na bombe, koje nemaju baš dobar povraćaj ulaganja, on nema novčanice koje može da vrati banci. Plus, premijer želi da kupi još bombi za svoj rat.

Bankar uverava premijera da je sve u redu. Bankar će napraviti novi ugovor o dugu za 600.000 novčanica, koji bi trebao da stigne na naplatu u narednih 5 godina. Premijer može da iskoristi 200.000 od tih novih 600.000 novčanica da vrati svoj prvobitni dug prema banci, zadrži još 300.000 da kupi još bombi i da 100.000 bankaru da bi mu platio njegove usluge.

To nastavlja da se dešava – svaki put kada dug dospeva na naplatu, bankar stvara više novčanica za vraćanje starijih dugova i daje premijeru još više novca za trošenje. Ovaj ciklus se nastavlja.

Šta se dešava u Kejnslandu?

• Oni koji prvi dobiju nove novčanice, gledaju kako se njihovo bogatstvo povećava
• To uključuje bankara, premijera, vladu i sve one koji mogu da pristupe mogućnostima za investiranje u preduzeća koja prva dobiju nove novčanice (finansijske, vojne itd.).
• Cene roba rastu
• Cene se ne povećavaju ravnomerno – one se povećavaju gde god nove novčanice prvo uđu u ekonomiju i od tog trenutka imaju efekat talasa na tržišta. U našem primeru prvo raste cena amonijum nitrata, zatim cena pšenice, pa cena hleba. A tek na kraju zarade običnih ljudi.
• Štednja i životni standard opšte populacije se smanjuju
• Najviše pate oni koji žive od plate do plate i ne mogu da ulažu. Čak i oni koji su u mogućnosti da investiraju podložni su hirovima tržišta. Mnogi su prisiljeni da prodaju svoje investicije po niskim cenama tokom pada tržišta samo da bi platili svoje dnevne potrebe.
• Razlika u prihodima i bogatstvu između bogatih i siromašnih se povećava
• Bogatstvo opšte populacije se smanjuje, dok se bogatstvo onih koji su blizu mesta gde se troše nove novčanice povećava. Rezultat je disparitet koji se vremenom samo proširuje.

Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?

Priča o Njutoniji i stvarna priča o agri perlama u Africi deluju pomalo zastarelo. Priča o Kejnslandu, međutim, deluje neobično poznato. U našem svetu cene robe uvek rastu, i vidimo rekordne nivoe nejednakosti u bogatstvu.

U poslednjem odeljku ovog našeg članka Šta je novac, proći ću kroz nastanak bankarstva i korake koji su bili potrebni da se dođe do današnjeg sistema, gde banke i vlade sarađuju u kontroli ekonomije i samog novca.

Šta su banke, i odakle su one došle?

Pojava bankarstva verovatno se dogodila da bi olakšala poljoprivrednu trgovinu i da bi povećala pogodnosti. Iako su se mnoga društva na kraju konvergirala ka upotrebi zlata i srebra kao novca, ovi metali su bili teški i opasni za nošenje kao tovar. Međutim, u mnogim slučajevima ih nije ni trebalo prevoziti. Uzmite ovaj primer:

Grad treba da plati poljoprivrednicima na selu za žito, a poljoprivrednici gradskoj vojsci za zaštitu od varvara. U ovom dogovoru zlato se kreće u oba smera: prema poljoprivrednicima u selu kako bi im se platilo žito, i nazad u grad da bi se platila vojska. Da bi olakšali ove transakcije, preduzetnici su stvorili koncept banke. Banka je zlato čuvala u sigurnom trezoru i izdavala novčanice od papira. Svaka priznanica je predstavljala potvrdu da njen imaoc poseduje određenu količinu zlata u banci. Imaoc novčanice je u svako doba mogao da uzme svoje zlato nazad vraćanjem te novčanice banci.

Korisnici banke mogli su lakše da trguju sa novčanicama od papira, i onaj koji poseduje novčanice mogao je da preuzme njihovo fizičko zlato u bilo kom trenutku. To je te novčanice učinilo “dobrim kao i zlato”.

Banke su izdržavale svoje poslovanje naplaćujući od kupaca naknadu za skladištenje zlata ili pozajmljivanjem dela zlata i zaračunavanjem kamata na njega. Trgovina na ovaj način je mogla da se odvija sa laganim novčanicama od papira umesto sa teškim vrećama zlatnika.

Ovakva praksa sa transakcijama, korišćenjem papirne valute potpomognute monetarnim dobrima, verovatno je započela u Kini u 7. veku.

Na kraju se proširila Evropom 1600-ih, a svoj zalet dobila je u Holandiji sa bankama poput Amsterdamske Wisselbanke. Novčanice Wisselbank-e često su vredele više od zlata koje ih je podržavalo, zbog dodane vrednosti njihovih pogodnosti.

Uspon nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’

Tokom vekova, zlato je počelo da se sakuplja u trezorima banaka, jer su ljudi više voleli pogodnosti transakcija sa novčanicama.

Na kraju, nacionalne banke u vlasništvu vlada preuzele su ulogu čuvanja zlata od privatnih banaka koje su započeli preduzetnici.

Nacionalne papirne valute potpomognute zlatnim rezervama u nacionalnim bankama zamenile su novčanice iz privatnih banaka. Sve nacionalne valute bile su jednostavno potvrde za zlato koje se nalazilo u trezoru nacionalne banke.

Ovaj sistem je poznat kao zlatni standard – sve valute su jednostavno predstavljale različite težine zlata.

U gornjem levom uglu novčanice možete videti da piše da je novčanica “zamenljiva za zlato”. Savremeni dolari nemaju ovaj natpis, ali inače izgledaju vrlo slično. Izvor

Zlatni sistem je postojao veći deo vremena, sve do Prvog svetskog rata. Vladama je bilo teško da prikupe novac za ovaj rat putem poreza, pa su morale da budu kreativne.

Kada vlade troše više nego što zarađuju na porezima, to se naziva deficitna potrošnja.

Kako vlade mogu ovo da urade? Vlade to rade tako što pozajmljuju novac prodavajući svoj dug.

Tokom Prvog svetskog rata, vlade su građanima i preduzećima prodavale vrstu duga koja se naziva ratna obveznica. Kada građanin kupi ratnu obveznicu, on preda svoj novac vladi i dobije papir u kojem je stajalo vladino obećanje da će vlasniku obveznice vratiti novac, plus kamate, za nekoliko godina.

Plakat koji obaveštava građane, tražeći od njih da kupe ratne obveznice – što predstavlja zajam vladi. Izvor

Centralne banke ‘monetizuju’ državni dug

Međutim, građani i preduzeća nisu bili voljni da kupe dovoljno ratnih obveznica za finansiranje Prvog svetskog rata.

Vlade se nisu predale – pa su zatražile od svojih nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’ da one kupe ove obveznice. Centralne banke su otkupile obveznice, ali ih nisu platile valutom potpomognutom postojećim zlatnim rezervama, kao što su to činili građani i banke prilikom kupovine obveznica.

Centralne banke su umesto toga davale vladi novu, sveže štampanu papirnu valutu potpomognutu samo obveznicom. Ovu valutu podržalo je samo obećanje da će im vlada vratiti dugove. Ovo je poznato kao monetizacija duga.

Budući da su ratne obveznice i valuta samo komadi papira, one su lake i jeftine za proizvodnju i mogu se napraviti u ogromnim količinama. Ono što ograničava proizvodnju i jednog i drugog je poverenje.

Ima smisla da se neko rastane od svog teško stečenog novca da kupi državnu obveznicu, samo ako veruje da će vlada da vrati svoj dug, plus kamate. Centralna banka je “krajnji kupac”, što znači da će ona da kupi državne obveznice kada to niko drugi neće da uradi.

Zapamtite, centralnu banku gotovo da ništa ne košta da kupi državne obveznice, jer oni sami štampaju valutu da bi ih kupili.

Zamislite da pridjete najskupljem automobilu u autosalonu – koji košta 100.000 USD. Mislite da je automobil lep, ali taj novac biste radije potrošili na lepši stan – tako da ste spremni da platite samo 40.000 USD za taj auto.

Sada, hajde da zamislimo da imate štampač za novac i da vas košta samo 50 USD za mastilo i papir da bi ištampali 1.000.000 USD. Vi biste odmah kupili auto, čak i ako biste morali da se cenkate sa drugim čovekom, i da ga na kraju platite 150.000 USD!

Ista stvar se dešava kada centralna banka kupuje obveznice (dugove) od vlade. Centralna banka može da stvori valutu toliko jeftino, da su spremni da plate i više nego što bi drugi platili ove obveznice i nastaviće da ih kupuju čak i kada niko drugi ne bude želeo.

Monetizacija duga uzrokuje inflaciju

Kada centralne banke monetizuju državni dug, funkcija novca kao zalihe vrednosti počinje da se nagriza. Vlada troši novi novac koji je dobila od svoje centralne banke na ratnu robu, obroke i još mnogo toga.

Cene roba rastu od ove novoštampane valute koja kruži kroz ekonomiju. Kada se cene povećavaju, to znači da se vrednost svake jedinice valute smanjuje. Svi koji drže valutu sada imaju manje vrednosti. Danas to nazivamo sporim gubitkom funkcije zalihe vrednosti u novčanoj inflaciji.

Za Nemačku nakon Prvog svetskog rata monetizacija duga izazvala je totalni slom Nemačke ekonomije i stvorila uslove za rast fašizma.

Kao deo sporazuma o prekidu vatre koji je okončao Prvi svetski rat, Nemačka je pobednicima morala da plati ogroman novac. Nemačkoj vladi je bio preko potreban novac, pa su prodale obveznice (dug) Rajhsbanci, nemačkoj centralnoj banci.

Ovaj postupak doveo je do toga da je vlada štampala toliko maraka (tadašnja nemačka valuta) da je tempo inflacije u Nemačkoj ubrzan u hiperinflaciju početkom 1920-ih. Cena vekne hleba za samo 4 godine popela se sa 1,2 marke na 428 biliona maraka.

Tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata, SAD, Britanija, Francuska i mnoge druge vlade pratile su Nemačku u štampanju valute potpomognute državnim dugom.

To je dovelo do toga da su građani želeli da svoju papirnu valutu zamene za zlato, baš kao i penzioner iz priče o Kejnslandu.

Međutim, mnoge vlade su suspendovale konvertibilnost svojih valuta u zlato. Ovim potezom vlade su primorale svoje građane da drže nacionalnu papirnu valutu i gledaju kako se njihova ušteda smanjuje u vrednosti.

Da bi mogle da nastave da štampaju novac i da bi ga trošile na nepopularne programe za koje nisu mogle da skupljaju poreze za finansiranje – poput ratova.

Bretton Woods: Novi monetarni sistem

Nakon razaranja koja su donela dva svetska rata, vlade su uspostavile novi globalni monetarni sistem prema Bretton Woods-ovom sporazumu iz 1944. godine.

Prema ovom sporazumu, valuta svake države konvertovala se po fiksnom kursu sa američkim dolarom. Američki dolar je zauzvrat predstavljao zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu trojsku uncu zlata*.

Sve globalne valute su stoga još uvek bile jednostavna reprezentacija zlata, putem američkih dolara kao posrednika. Redovni građani više nisu mogli da otkupljuju svoje valute za zlato iz Sjedinjenih Država. Međutim, strane centralne banke mogle bi da dođu u Sjedinjene Države da bi zamenile dolare za zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu uncu zlata.

Međutim, vlada Sjedinjenih Država nije uvek držala dovoljno zlata da podrži sve dolare u opticaju. Američka vlada nastavila je da finansira proširene socijalne i vojne programe prodajom državnog duga svojoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim rezervama, koja je povećala ponudu dolara bez povećanja ponude zlata koja podupire te dolare.

*Trojna unca je standardna mera čistog zlata i ima malo veću težinu od normalne unce.

Propast Bretton Woods-a

Tokom 1970-ih, sve veći troškovi rata u Vijetnamu i stranih vlada koje su otkupljivale svoje dolare za zlato, stvorili su pritisak na Trezor Sjedinjenih Država.

Ponuda dolara je porasla, dok je zlato u posedu Sjedinjenih Država opalo. Od 1950. pa do početka 1970-ih, rezerve zlata koje je držala vlada Sjedinjenih Država smanjile su se za više od 50%, sa 20 metričkih tona na samo 8 metričkih tona.

Godine 1970. država je imala zlata u vrednosti od samo 12 biliona dolara po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata. Tokom ovog istog vremenskog perioda, ukupna ponuda američkih dolara otišla je sa oko 32 biliona USD na skoro 70 biliona USD.

Zvanične rezerve zlata u SAD-u su naglo padale od 1950. do 1970. godine, dok su se dolari u opticaju povećavali. Izvor: Wikipedia, DollarDaze.org

Američka vlada nije bila u stanju da potkrepi dolare zlatom od 35 dolara po trojnoj unci, što dovelo do rizika za čitav globalni monetarni sistem.

Početkom sedamdesetih godina, trojna unca zlata trebala je da vredi 200 USD da bi u potpunosti podržala sve američke dolare u opticaju. Rečeno na drugi način, Sjedinjene Države su pokušavale da kažu svetu da jedan dolar vredi 1/35 trojne unce zlata, ali u stvarnosti dolar je vredeo samo 1/200 trojne unce.

Kad su strane vlade trebale da pribave dolare za međunarodnu trgovinu i rezerve, bile su opelješene. Francuska vlada je to shvatila šezdesetih godina prošlog veka i počela je da prodaje svoje američke dolare za zlato po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata.

Zemlje su počinjale da se bude iz šeme američke vlade. SAD su krale bogatstvo putem emisione dobiti, prodajući dolare za 1/35 trojne unce zlata, kada su vredeli samo 1/200 trojske unce.

Nixonov Šok ulazi u ’tradicionalni’ novac

Da bi kuća od karata mogla da ostane na mestu, predsednik Nixon je 1971. najavio da će američka vlada privremeno da obustavi konvertibilnost dolara u zlato.

Strane vlade više nisu mogle da polažu pravo na zlato svojim papirnim dolarima, a dolar više nije bio “poduprt” zlatom. Nixon je tvrdio da će ovo stabilizovati dolar.

50 godina kasnije, kristalno je jasno da je ovo samo pomoglo dolaru da izgubi vrednost i da ovaj “privremeni” program još uvek traje.

Pre 1971. godine, sve globalne valute bile su vezane za američki dolar putem Bretton Woods-ovog sporazuma. Kada je Nixon promenio američki dolar iz dolara podržanog u zlatu u dolar podržan dugom, ovim je promenio i svaku drugu valutu na Zemlji.

Sam je učinio da se celokupna svetska ekonomija zasniva na dugovima. Valute više nisu predstavljale zlato, već su predstavljale vrednost državnog duga.

Zlatni Standard se nikada nije vratio

Konvertibilnost američkih dolara u zlato – zlatni standard – nikada se nije vratio.

Od 1971. godine, čitav globalni monetarni sistem pokreće se tradicionalnim “fiat” valutama: poverenjem u vladine institucije da održavaju valutni sistem.

Većina valuta podržana je kombinacijom duga njihove vlade i drugih tradicionalnih valuta poput dolara i evra. Papirne valute više nisu podržane zlatom, imovinom koja je više od 5000 godina služila kao težak novac.

Danas vas vlade prisiljavaju da plaćate porez u njihovoj valuti i manipulišu saznanjima oko novca kako bi osigurale da potražnja za njihovom valutom ostane velika.

To im omogućava da neprestano štampaju više valuta, da bi je potrošili na vladine projekte, uzrokujući inflaciju cena koja jede i smanjuje bogatstvo i plate.

Američka vlada sada prodaje državne obveznice (dugove), poznate kao obveznice Trezora SAD, eng. US Treasuries, komercijalnim bankama u zamenu za američke dolare.

Vlada koristi te dolare za finansiranje svog budžetskog deficita. Komercijalne banke prodaju mnoge obveznice Trezora SAD, koje su kupile, američkoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim Rezervama.

Federalne rezerve plaćaju komercijalnim bankama sveže štampanim novcem “pomoću računara i upisivanjem količine na račun”, kako je rekao bivši predsednik Fed-a Ben Bernanke.

Ove komercijalne banke često zarađuju samo kupujući obveznice Trezora SAD od države i prodajući ih centralnoj banci. Kupujte nisko, prodajte visoko.

Centralne banke ovaj proces kupovine državnog duga – odnosno pozajmljivanja novca državi – nazivaju operacijama otvorenog tržišta.

Kada centralna banka odjednom kupi velike iznose duga, oni to nazivaju kvantitativnim ublažavanjem. Centralne banke javno najavljuju kupovinu državnog duga, ali vrlo malo ljudi razume šta to zapravo znači.

Euro, jen i svaka druga valuta koja se danas koristi funkcionišu slično kao američki dolar.

Da li će SAD ikada vratiti svoj nacionalni dug? Neobična stvar u vezi sa državnim dugom SAD-a je ta što vlada poseduje štampariju potrebnu za njegovu otplatu.

Kao rezultat toga, kada vlada duguje novac, oni samo pozajme još više novca da bi otplatile taj dug, povećavajući nacionalni dug.

Ako vam ovo zvuči kao Ponzijeva piramidalna šema, to je zato što ona to i jeste – najveća Ponzijeva šema u istoriji. Kao i svaka Ponzijeva šema, nastaviće se sve dok su ljudi koji kupuju Ponzijevu šemu budu uvereni da će im biti plaćeno nazad.

Ako ljudi i nacije prestanu da se zadužuju i koriste američke dolare jer nemaju poverenja u američku vladu ili vide da cena robe raste (tj. dolar postaje sve manje vredan), potražnja za dolarom će opadati, što će izazvati začaranu spiralu.

Ova spirala često završi u hiperinflaciji, kao što smo videli u novijoj istoriji sa Jugoslavijom, Venecuelom, Argentinom, Zimbabveom i mnogim drugim državama.

Ovo je način kako funkcioniše novac na vašem bankovnom računu. Novac svake nacije na svetu pati od istih problema kao i perle i novčanice u pričama o Njutoniji i Kejnslandu.

Kako banke i vlade kradu tvoj novac?

Tokom vekova, stigli smo do monetarnog sistema u kojem banke i vlade mogu da štampaju novu valutu za finansiranje svojih operacija i svojih prijatelja u zločinu, dok kradu bogatstvo svojih građana.

Šta će se desiti sa svetom kada novac bude mogao da štampa svaki narod na planeti?

• Bogatstvo onih koji su blizu pravljenja nove valute se povećava
• Vlada i politički povlašćena klasa ljudi, imaju pristup novoštampanom novcu pre svih ostalih, pa mogu da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu. Na ovaj efekat pokazao je ekonomista Richard Cantillon sredinom 1700-ih i poznat je kao Cantillonov Efekat.
• Cena robe raste (poznato kao inflacija
• Ne raste sve roba istovremeno u ceni. Roba blizu mesta gde se proizvodi nova valuta – finansijski sektor i vlada – prva raste, i odatle uzrokuje efekt talasa na cene.
• Inflacija se često predstavlja kao promena cene potrošačke korpe, poznata kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vlada ima alate za manipulisanje ovim brojem kako bi osigurala da se ona čini niskom i stabilnom, kao što je objašnjeno u našem članku o inflaciji.
• Finansijska imovina često primećuje ogromnu inflaciju, ali bankari to ne nazivaju inflacijom – oni kažu da naša ekonomija cveta! Nakon što su američke Federalne rezerve učetvorostručile ponudu američkih dolara u šest godina nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine, banke koje su dobile te nove dolare, kupile su akcije i obveznice, stvarajući ogroman balon u cenama ove imovine.
• Štednja i životni standard stanovništva se smanjuju
• Plate su jedna od poslednjih “cena” u ekonomiji koja se prilagođava, jer se često povećavaju samo jednom godišnje. U međuvremenu, cene dnevnih potrepština te osobe koja zaradjuje platu neprestano rastu kako novi novac kruži ekonomijom.
• Najviše su pogođeni oni koji žive od plate do plate – a to je 70% Amerikanaca.
• Razlike u prihodima između bogatih i siromašnih se povećavaju, kao što se vidi na grafikonu ispod.

*Koncentracija dohotka na vrhu naglo je porasla od 1970-ih

Zašto i dalje imamo isti monetarni sistem?

Ako ovaj sistem bogate još više obogaćuje, a siromašne još više osiromašuje, dovodeći do političke nestabilnosti, zašto ga onda ne bismo promenili?

Najveći razlog zašto se ništa ne menja je verovatno to što puno toga ne znamo o samom sistemu. Svi svakodnevno koristimo valute svojih vlada, ali većina nas ne razume kako sistem funkcioniše i šta on čini našim društvima.

Obrazovni sistem, mediji i finansijski stručnjaci neprestano nam govore da je monetarni sistem previše komplikovan da bi ga normalni ljudi razumeli. Mnogi od nas se zato i ne trude da pokušaju.

Još nekoliko razloga zašto ovaj sistem nastavlja da opstaje:

• Mnogo je ljudi koji imaju direktnu korist od štampanja novog novca.
• Ti ljudi ne žele nikakve promene i bore se da zadrže tu moć.
• Nacionalne valute su često pogodne
• Kreditne kartice, online bankarstvo i još mnogo toga čine upravljanje nacionalnim valutama i njihovo trošenje lakim i jednostavnim.
• Građani moraju da plaćaju porez u svojoj nacionalnoj valuti
• To stvara potražnju za tom valutom od svih građana, povećavajući njenu vrednost.
• Glavna međunarodna tržišta, poput nafte, denominirana su u dolarima.
• Nafta je potrebna svakoj zemlji na planeti, ali pošto mnogi ne mogu da je proizvode, moraju da je kupuju na međunarodnim berzama. Od 1970-ih na ovim berzama gotovo sva nafta se prodaje za dolare, što stvara potražnju za dolarima. Da bi se odmaknule od ovog sistema, zemlje bi trebale da pronađu novu valutu ili robu za trgovinu naftom, što zahteva vreme i rizike.
• Nije postojala dobra alternativa
• Uz globalnu ekonomiju u realnom vremenu, naš sistem digitalnog bankarstva koji koristi nacionalne valute je pogodan. Transakcija u tvrdom novcu poput zlata bila bi previše nezgrapna za današnji svet. Digitalna valuta pod nazivom Bitcoin, predstavljena 2009. godine, je rastuća alternativa koja nudi čvrst novac koji se kreće brzinom interneta.

Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?

Novac je alat koji olakšava razmenu dobara. Kao i svako drugo dobro, novac se pridržava zakona ponude i potražnje – povećanje potražnje povećaće njegovu vrednost, a povećanje ponude smanjiće njegovu vrednost.

Na ovaj način novac se ne razlikuje od kuće ili piletine. Međutim, velika prodajnost novca znači da je potražnja za njim uvek velika. Kao rezultat, novac mora biti težak za proizvodnju (a samim tim i ograničen u ponudi) ili će ga onaj ko ga može napraviti, stvoriti toliko, da vremenom više neće služiti kao zaliha vrednosti. Uskoro će izgubiti svoje funkcije kao sredstvo razmene i obračunske jedinice.

Najbolji novac u datoj ekonomiji je onaj koji se najslobodnije kreće – svi ga žele, lako je obaviti transakcije sa njim i koji sa vremenom dobro drži svoju vrednost. Nijedan novac nije savršen u svemu ovome, a neki ističu jednu funkciju novca na štetu drugih.

Iako se istorija ne ponavlja, ona se rimuje, a usponi i padovi monetarnih sistema imaju jasne ritmove. Uspon i pad monetarnog sistema često sledi opšti obrazac koji smo videli u pričama o agri perlama i Kejnslandu: pojavljuje se odredjenji oblik novca koji pomaže ljudima da efikasnije trguju i štede, ali na kraju gubi na vrednosti kada neko shvati kako da ga jeftino stvori u velikoj količini. Međutim, tokom dugog perioda vremena, monetarni sistemi su se poboljšali u sve tri funkcije novca.

Na primer, zlato je tokom vremena dobro služilo kao zaliha vrednosti. Međutim, naša međusobno povezana ekonomija ne bi mogla efikasno da funkcioniše ako bi trebalo da fizičko zlato zamenimo robom i uslugama. Mnogo je lakše kretati se na papirnom i digitalnom novcu, ali istorija nam govori da su vlade i bankari iskoristili ove oblike novca za krađu bogatstva putem inflacije.

Današnji globalni monetarni sistem je vrlo zgodan, a digitalna plaćanja i kreditne kartice olakšavaju trošenje novca. Ovo skriva stalnu inflaciju koja nagriza vrednost svake jedinice novca i dovodi do sve većeg jaza u bogatstvu.

Nadam se da je ovaj članak proširio vaše razumevanje novca i njegove uloge u društvu. Ovo je samo početak svega što treba istražiti o novcu: za kasnije su sačuvane teme o inflaciji, kamatnim stopama, pozajmljivanju, poslovnim ciklusima i još mnogo toga.

Efikasnija Ušteda Novca

Možda se pitate kako zaštititi svoju štednju kada svaki oblik često korišćenog novca i investicija pati od inflacije ponude – koja umanjuje vrednost i prenosi bogatstvo onima koji mogu da stvore novac ili investiciju. Možda se čini da se ništa na planeti danas ne može kvalifikovati kao ‘težak’ novac, ali dve stvari ipak ostaju: zlato i njegov noviji rođak Bitcoin. Obe ove stvari je neverovatno teško proizvesti, a jedna od njih se kreće brzinom interneta i može se čuvati u vašem mozgu.

Ako želite da saznate više o Bitcoin-u kao sredstvu za zaštitu vaše ušteđevine, pročitajte ovde. Ako ste već spremni za kupovinu Bitcoin-a, pogledajte moj vodič za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Možete početi sa investiranjem sa samo 5 ili 10 €.

Zasluge

Hvala svima koji su pomogli u izradi i uređivanju ove serije o novcu: @ck_SNARKS, @CryptoRothbard, Neil Woodfine, Emil Sandstedt, Taylor Pearson, Parker Lewis, Jason Choi, mojoj porodici i mnogim drugima.

Hvala svima koji su ovo inspirisali i razvili ključne ideje koje su ovde primenjene: Friedrich Hayek, Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Saifedean Ammous, Dan Held, Pierre Rochard, Stephan Livera, Michael Goldstein, i mnogi drugi.

Molim vas da šerujete! Ako vam je ovaj članak otvorio oči o tome kako funkcioniše naš novac i finansijski sistem, kontaktirajte me ili ostavite komentar!

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

@matt_odell don't you even dare not ask about nostr!

— Kukks (Andrew Camilleri) (@MrKukks) May 18, 2021

Nostr first hit my radar spring 2021: created by fellow bitcoiner and friend, fiatjaf, and released to the world as free open source software. I was fortunate to be able to host a conversation with him on Citadel Dispatch in those early days, capturing that moment in history forever. Since then, the protocol has seen explosive viral organic growth as individuals around the world have contributed their time and energy to build out the protocol and the surrounding ecosystem due to the clear need for better communication tools.

nostr is to twitter as bitcoin is to paypal

As an intro to nostr, let us start with a metaphor:

twitter is paypal - a centralized platform plagued by censorship but has the benefit of established network effects

nostr is bitcoin - an open protocol that is censorship resistant and robust but requires an organic adoption phase

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
 - Anyone can run a relay.
 - Anyone can interact with the protocol.
 - Relays can choose which messages they want to relay.
 - Users are identified by a simple public private key pair that they can generate themselves.

Nostr is often compared to twitter since there are nostr clients that emulate twitter functionality and user interface but that is merely one application of the protocol. Nostr is so much more than a mere twitter competitor. Nostr clients and relays can transmit a wide variety of data and clients can choose how to display that information to users. The result is a revolution in communication with implications that are difficult for any of us to truly comprehend.

Similar to bitcoin, nostr is an open and permissionless protocol. No person, company, or government controls it. Anyone can iterate and build on top of nostr without permission. Together, bitcoin and nostr are incredibly complementary freedom tech tools: censorship resistant, permissionless, robust, and interoperable - money and speech protected by code and incentives, not laws.

As censorship throughout the world continues to escalate, freedom tech provides hope for individuals around the world who refuse to accept the status quo. This movement will succeed on the shoulders of those who choose to stand up and contribute. We will build our own path. A brighter path.

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My Nostr Public Key: npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

It wasn’t so long ago that the mainstream conversation around population was exclusively focused on the dangers of overpopulation. The fatal flaws in the Malthusian theory had yet to be disproven clearly and obviously by observable demographic trends. That’s been gradually changing, and while it’s hardly a mainstream consensus, concerns about falling birthrates and the risk of population collapse have taken over the population conversion on the political right, and sometimes beyond.

There’s no questioning the data at this point. Fertility rates over most of the world have been in precipitous decline, and if the current trajectory continues, global population will peak very soon and fall rather dramatically. And even the falling population itself is much less of a threat than the aging population that will inevitably precede it. Having a large cohort of older and retired people and a small cohort of young workers is an existential threat to the modern welfare state, and to the entire credit-based fiat monetary system that supports it. But that’s a subject for another day.

There are a multitude of different theories that attempt to explain why this is happening. I’ll name some of the most common ones:

• Increased education and employment opportunities for women

• Urbanization

• Economic factors

• Access to contraception

• Changing social and cultural norms

• Delayed marriage

• Improvements in infant mortality rates

• Government policies

• Environmental concerns

• Pornography

• Feminism

• Endocrine disrupting chemicals

• Dating apps

Most rational thinkers agree there must be multiple factors playing a role. But the fact that the problem is so wide-spread, and populations that seem to be resisting the trend are so rare, shows that the strongest underlying factors are cross-culturally powerful and not easily resisted or reversed with marginal cultural differences and standard public policy efforts.

While populations that resist the trend are rare, they are not quite non-existent. A few groups stand out for their persistently high fertility rates. On a geographic basis, sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region still maintaining above-replacement fertility rates. For various reasons, I don’t think Africa is the most useful place to look for answers on what’s causing the decline elsewhere or how it could be reversed. One reason is that Africa seems to be following the global pattern, just with a lag. In another few decades the data may look very different, just like it does for South America today compared to 20 years ago.

In my opinion, a more useful place to look for data is in smaller population sub-groups within a geographic area that have fertility rates significantly higher than the general population levels. Rural populations in general have higher fertility rates than urban populations, but the difference isn’t really enough to consider it significant. The groups that fit this category well seem to be exclusively religious. These include certain Christian denominations in the traditional Anabaptist category including the Amish, Mennonites, and Hutterites, Muslims in some areas, and Jews, particularly the most orthodox sects. Mormons recently fell out of the high-fertility religious group category, which would also make for some interesting research.

It would be fascinating to compare these groups and see what they have in common outside just being religious in nature. I don’t have the knowledge to make that comparison. Instead, I’m going to focus on the group that’s often referenced and analyzed by people without much personal knowledge, the Amish.

I have read numerous articles and comments that reference the Amish to support this or that theory on the cause of falling fertility. One thing I notice is an obvious lack of understanding of the Amish culture, which leads to faulty arguments that don’t reflect reality. This isn’t surprising, given the insular and poorly-understood nature of the culture, the plethora of ridiculously incorrect “Amish” reality TV shows and pop culture myths, and the fact that the number of people with firsthand knowledge of Amish culture from an insider perspective who also write about demographic trends on any public platform is probably zero.

Well, was zero. I’m about to make that one.

My Qualifications

Since I’m claiming to have this knowledge, it’s only fair to give a little background as to how I got it. I choose to stay anonymous on the internet, and given that this is personal information that could make it significantly easier to dox me, I’ll be deliberately vague.

My parents were both born in Amish families. They didn’t stay, opting to leave the Amish church and culture before getting married and starting their family. My grandparents were all Amish, and all my cousins and most of my extended family remain Amish to this day. My parents didn’t move out of the Amish community, staying in the area and joining a conservative Mennonite church that was about the closest thing to being Amish without actually being Amish. The Mennonite community has a generally good relationship with and a lot of respect for the Amish community, given their deep similarities and shared history and cultural background.

I grew up interacting regularly with Amish relatives, neighbors and community members, speaking the Pennsylvania Dutch my parents taught us and used exclusively at home. I’m very certain that a real deep understanding of Amish culture is almost impossible without speaking their language, just like many other cultures around the world. The Amish speak English as their second language, but there are aspects of their culture that aren’t spoken about in English.

This lifelong proximity to and interaction with the Amish community has, I believe, given me some unique insights into the factors supporting their high fertility rates that no amount of academic research will ever uncover.

Who are the Amish?

First, some basics.

The Amish are a traditionalist Christian denomination. The way to understand the Amish is as a religious denomination first, and a culture second. Getting the two mixed up makes it impossible to understand why the Amish live the way they do.

Sure, their unique lifestyles makes them noteworthy as a group. But that lifestyle is based on and maintained by their religious beliefs and convictions.

Fundamentally, the Amish attempt to live out the Gospel as Jesus taught in the Sermon on the Mount. They believe their church has done so historically, and that the best way to make sure they keep doing so in the future is to view any changes to their traditional lifestyle with extreme skepticism and resistance.

The two primary doctrines that separate them from the mainstream Protestant Reformation, which is their group’s origin, are the doctrines of nonconformity and nonresistance. They apply the doctrine of nonconformity, the command to “be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God” in both a spiritual and a practical sense. They believe that Christians are to be radically different from non-Christians, both in their beliefs and attitudes, and in their lifestyle and appearance. And they apply the command to “resist not evil”, nonresistance, to mean that it’s a sin to use physical force or violence against another person for any reason whatsoever. They don’t make any exception for military service of any type, which they object to as a matter of conscience, or for self-defense, which they refuse to engage in even if it means death for themselves or their family.

The Amish do not practice infant baptism. Their young people must choose to be baptized and formally become members of the church, usually in their late teens or early twenties. As part of the baptism ceremony, they make a vow to remain faithful to God and the church until death. The Amish, as a church, interpret this vow to mean that the new church member will remain a member of the Amish church for life. Leaving the Amish church after making this vow and being baptized is viewed as breaking the vow, and is the justification for their practice of shunning, or the ban. Those who do so are cut off from contact with the community in various ways. Typically they won’t eat a meal with a shunned person, ride in a car a shunned person is driving, or do business with a shunned person. That includes immediate family. Failure to enforce this shunning against someone, even your own child, can result in running afoul of the church leadership and also being excommunicated and shunned.

This punishment, however, only applies to people who leave the church after baptism. Those young people who choose not to be baptized and leave the church instead are free to be treated just like any other non-Amish person, although their family essentially disown them and treat them like a shunned person anyway, if they’re especially strict and upset about the betrayal of Amish values.

Most Amish people don’t believe that the Amish are the only true church, or that only Amish people are true Christians. Most are accepting of other conservative Anabaptist denominations, and respect their values and practices as a different but valid way to be Christian. Church teaching strongly suggests that those who fall under the ban are living in sin and won’t make it to heaven. Most individuals, though, probably wouldn’t agree with that in every case if they were free to give their true opinion on the issue.

The Amish maintain a fertility rate of around 6 to 7 children per woman. Some recent research suggests this may be starting to fall somewhat, but the data isn’t extensive enough to make a solid judgement yet.

There are a wide variety of different “flavors” of Amish in different areas of the US, a fact they’re very aware of. The data strongly indicates that the most conservative and technologically primitive communities have slightly higher fertility rates and significantly higher retention rates of young people.

Why do the Amish Maintain High Fertility Rates?

Okay, enough background. Time to dive into the reasons I believe the Amish maintain their historically high fertility rate despite living in a developed, modern economy surrounded by people with dramatically sub-replacement fertility rates.

I thought long and hard about the best way to approach this. Going through a list of factors topically seemed like the obvious one. But the more I thought it through, the less I liked it. For one, how do you arrange the factors? Order of importance? How do you decide that? Also, the factors are so inter-related that they’ll be very tough to separate and understand individually. Finally, it seems dry and boring. Nobody needs that.

So I’m going to try something different. I’m going to approach it from a narrative angle. I’ll try to describe the life of a typical Amish person, from birth to death, in a chronological way. That’s the best approach to present it in a way that makes the culture relatable, while also tying the different factors together logically.

I’ll describe the experience for both men and women as best I can, and try to present the various factors encouraging high fertility as I see them at the appropriate part of the story.

This will likely be an article that gets revised later to address any questions that come up, so don’t consider it the final word on the subject.

Alright, time to get started.

Subscribed

First off, this might seem obvious, but the typical Amish baby is born into a large family. On average, they’ll have 5 or 6 siblings, and more is not at all uncommon. Families of 10 won’t raise an eyebrow, and 12-16 children aren’t unheard of, especially in the past when mortality was higher and second marriages were more common among younger widowers who went on to have children with their second wife. Humans are social creatures, and the environment and people we grow up surrounded by have a strong influence on our frame of reference. Studies have shown that women are very unlikely to have more children than their mother had. The number of siblings in your family, and in families you observe and interact with, doesn’t determine the number of children you will have, but it does strongly influence the number of children you feel is a “normal” amount. That makes it a kind of ratchet effect, where it’s very unlikely that a generation raised in homes with one or two children will go on to have larger families of their own collectively.

This cultural norm of large families establishes a kind of inertia that normalizes high fertility right from birth. Amish children grow up surrounded by siblings, observing, and as they get older, helping with the care and maintenance of a large family. All their relatives, cousins and extended family are also likely to belong to large families. The average Amish child grows up with dozens of first cousins, and sometimes hundreds of more distant cousins, many of whom they likely know well and socialize with regularly. This experience establishes a mental framework where a large family is assumed to be the default. And there is no stronger human tendency than the urge to fit in with the people around you.

Amish children grow up with strong gender norms taught from a very young age. The Amish culture follows strict and conservative gender roles. Boys and men do male things, girls and women do female things, and there is little effort or desire to create any overlapping space.

Boys grow up doing traditionally masculine things. They play outside, do chores on the farm, help their dad with his work, probably get a BB gun before age 10, go hunting and fishing, play sports, and generally prepare for a lifetime of physical labor and providing for a wife and family.

Girls grow up doing traditionally feminine things. They help care for younger siblings, help with housework, play with dolls, learn to cook and preserve food, learn to sew, and generally prepare for a lifetime of caring for and raising children and maintaining a large household.

It’s a common misconception that the Amish are mostly farmers who live off the land, subsistence style. That’s not at all accurate. While there are still Amish who make their living farming, at least in some areas, that has become the exception. The large scale of modern agriculture means it takes a lot of acres and a lot of machinery to run a profitable commercial farming operation. The Amish reject the use of most modern agricultural machinery, which makes them uncompetitive in commercial agriculture outside more niche markets like dairy, produce, or greenhouses. And the fact that they live in small geographic communities with large families means they quickly buy up all available farmland in an area until they price themselves out of the market. Prime farmland in heavy Amish farming communities like Lancaster, Pennsylvania routinely sells for over $25,000 per acre, which is more than a commercial crop farming operation might bring in over a lifetime.

So the Amish have moved away from a primarily agriculture based economy to various other occupations. In some areas they work in RV factories. Most work in trades, primarily construction. Many are masons, carpenters, cabinet builders, mechanics, welders, etc.

But they reject the ownership of cars, so they still use their characteristic horses and buggies for transportation. In reality, they use cars for most of their transportation needs. But they don’t own cars or have driver’s licenses, so they rely on “Amish taxi drivers” to chauffer them around. The men hire a driver to take them to and from work, if they work in construction or some other job outside the home. The women hire a driver take them to town for their shopping or for other errands. The exception is church. They’re still required to drive to church in a horse and buggy, so every family must keep a horse for that reason, as a bare minimum. In many cases that’s the only time they ever use a horse and buggy, and if it weren’t for that requirement they wouldn’t own one at all.

But that requirement means every Amish family must own enough land to keep a horse, which takes a few acres and a small barn at minimum. This forces them to live in rural areas and raise their families in a somewhat agricultural environment, even if their occupation wouldn’t require that at all. So there are always chores for the children, animals to care for, and space to play outside with their siblings.

Amish children grow up with very limited exposure to mainstream cultural pressures. Their mothers inevitably raise them at home until they start school. They don’t have TV or cell phones, so they aren’t exposed to any mainstream culture on a daily basis.

The Amish have their own schools, typically small one room schools within walking distance of all the families who attend. The teachers are often young single people, always Amish. They primarily teach basic academics: reading, writing, arithmetic, geography, history, etc. While the Amish speak both English and Pennsylvania Dutch, many Amish children are first exposed to English on a daily basis when they start school. School is taught in English, although there is limited teaching of the High German the Amish use in their church services.

Amish children attend school until 8th grade. The schools run the minimum number of days required by the state, usually 160. There is no higher education beyond grade 8. No Amish attend college.

Amish children are taught from little up that they are not like other people. The differences between their culture and mainstream culture are emphasized, and Amish culture is praised as the ideal, at a religious level. They're taught that the way to do what’s right is to do what the church asks, and those who don’t do what the church asks are in the wrong.

The Amish rate and describe everyone on a scale from “high” to “low”. A person who isn’t Amish, who isn’t a Christian, is a “high” person, or an “English” person. To go from being Amish to being “English” is the worst, most damning, failure imaginable. The Amish are “low” people. The more strict and traditional an Amish sect, the “lower” they are. Being “low” is seen as a virtue. Other conservative Christian denominations, particularly other Anabaptist groups, are also considered “low” people and generally viewed favorably, but they aren’t as “low” as the Amish.

Amish boys grow up expecting to start work full time at age 14, and to work at some type of trade or physical labor. There are no white-collar career tracks, essentially. Entrepreneurship is encouraged, and many young Amish men start their own construction crew or home business in their 20s or 30s after a few years of experience working for someone else. Often Amish boys start off working for and with their dad, in whatever trade or business he operates. But if they’re not interested in that particular occupation, they’re free to find another. Amish businesses and tradesmen are always willing to hire young Amish boys and train them in a craft. A good work ethic is considered a virtue, and Amish are known for their skilled craftsmanship and willingness to work harder than the competition. These traits are taught and encouraged from little on up.

Amish men as a whole do very well financially. For one, they start working and developing skills and work ethic a decade earlier than the typical college graduate. The trades pay well, and of course anyone could take advantage of that, but the mainstream narrative discourages men from pursuing a trade career by labeling it low status and keeping them in education until their prime years to gain a work ethic are past. It’s not uncommon for young Amish men just out of 8th grade to land a job on a carpentry crew for $25-30 an hour. With bonuses, some of them are bringing in $90k/year before age 20. Another advantage young Amish men have is lower expenses. They can certainly find places to spend their money, typically hobbies like hunting and fishing, but things like expensive designer clothes and accessories or overpriced car payments aren’t really an option. They also benefit from the Amish exemption to Social Security taxes. The Amish don’t pay into or collect Social Security. More on that later, but it helps immensely to keep more of your paycheck in your early prime working years.

Amish girls grow up expecting to get married at a young age and raise a large family as a traditional housewife. Amish girls aren’t encouraged to have a “career”, and the idea would be silly to them. They are expected to work, but the work is either helping their mom with the household, working on the family farm or business, or doing something like teaching school or working at an Amish farmer’s market to pass the time between leaving school and marriage. It’s never viewed as a permanent occupation, because marriage and motherhood is the default aspirational lifestyle. A common job for young Amish girls is working as a “maid” to help a new mother with housework at the end of pregnancy and for the first few months after childbirth. All new mothers can get this type of help if they want, and it will usually be a younger sister, cousin, or niece of appropriate age. Otherwise the community will find a suitable girl who’s available for the job. A “maid” will sometimes travel to a different Amish community for this reason, given how large extended families are and how frequently Amish families move across the country to a different community. This is often an opportunity for them to attract the attention of a young man outside their local community, and is one of the only ways for a long-distance relationship and marriage to begin.

Amish young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, with very few exceptions. They’re also typically expected to work for their dad in the family business for no pay, and to give any earnings they make at a day job outside the home to their parents. This is typically expected until age 21, or until they get married, whichever comes first. More recently, with the rising cost of land and housing, it’s becoming more common to make age 18 the cutoff. And when a young couple is engaged, the parents typically allow them to start saving their income for their future household. This practice helps parents offset some of the expenses of raising such large families, along with the fact that no money is spent on higher education. It also provides one strong incentive to marry as early as possible.

Amish culture revolves around family and the community. Extended families are large, and people are expected to know and interact with their family. Conversation with a stranger at a social event invariably starts by asking their name, then asking who their parents, grandparents, and other relatives are until some distant family connection or a mutual acquaintance is found. Since the Amish community has a small pool of family names, and tends to heavily favor certain Biblical first names, enough people end up with the same name to make things really confusing. People are often identified by two or three generations of their family, for example “Sam Yoder’s John’s Amos” for an Amos Yoder who’s father was John Yoder and grandfather Sam Yoder.

Social activities are either family events or church events, or both. Weddings and funerals are the main social functions other than church services, and people are expected to attend as many as possible among their family and extended family, regardless of the distance. Given the large family sizes, most Amish have dozens of first cousins and many more distant cousins. Weddings and funerals can be almost weekly events. These are church events as well, so much of the local Amish community will usually attend. It will be an all day event, with the women and girls preparing a lunch and dinner for everyone. After the meal, the women and girls will wash the dishes and clean up, while the men sit around and talk. No cell phones, remember. Talking is the main form of social interaction. Topics typically include work, family news, hunting and fishing stories (Amish men hunt and fish with the same enthusiasm typical American men watch sports), horses, and interesting or funny stories about family and friends. Those with a knack for entertaining oratory are well respected and appreciated in the Amish community.

Of course the women do their fair share of talking as well, in the kitchen while cleaning up after the meal, and later in the living room where they join the men after the domestic work is done. The main topics of conversation always revolve around family, immediate and extended. News travels through the Amish community faster than any social media platform, because nothing builds Amish female status more than being the first to call with the news that great uncle so-and-so was injured in a farming accident or nephew so-and-so has a new baby, along with all the pertinent details about the name, size, and health of the baby and how the mother is doing and how many grandchildren that makes in total for the lucky grandparents.

While the adults are talking, the children are free to play either inside or preferably outside. Trampolines, climbing trees, playing in the hayloft, tag, volleyball, and softball are favorite activities at various ages. The younger boys and girls typically play together, but as they get older the girls spend more time visiting while the boys prefer more structured sports. Softball is a game for boys, but volleyball is popular with mixed teams of boys and girls at any age.

Visiting relatives or other community families is also a popular social activity, especially on “in-between Sunday”. The Amish have church every other week, and the week without church is often an opportunity to visit another family. Invitations are not expected or required, and anyone stopping by will be expected to stay for dinner and into the evening. At these type of events, the older children are often expected to sit and visit with the adults. Sitting still and being quiet are mandatory skills, since church services are 2 hours or longer and held in barns or sheds without air conditioning filled with backless wooden benches. Self-discipline is not an optional virtue, because the alternative is physical discipline.

As Amish young people enter their mid teen years, they go from childhood to youth. At a certain age, usually around 15 or 16, they officially become youth and enter the stage everyone is familiar with, “rumspringa”. That’s a Pennsylvania Dutch word that translates to “running around”. The Amish use it more as a verb, but pop culture has adopted it as a noun based on some wildly inaccurate reality TV shows and depictions.

The reality is, rumspringa varies widely from community to community, mostly based on what the parents and church leaders tolerate. Remember that Amish church membership is a fully voluntary decision, and Amish young people are free to join or not, as they decide. Late teens is the typical age for that decision. In the meantime, they are free to make their own decisions, subject to their parents’ rules. Breaking the rules can mean that at some point, they won’t be welcome to live in their parents’ household any more. That’s a fairly strong deterrent to the most extreme infractions.

At this stage, young Amish men will be buying their own horse and buggy, and both boys and girls will be permitted to attend the Sunday night “singing”. This is a social activity held at someone's house on Sunday evening, involving all the youth in the community coming together for dinner, playing volleyball, and singing German hymns together. The purpose is to provide a somewhat controlled social environment for young men and women to interact and hopefully meet their future spouse. Dating couples can attend together, and dates are permitted after the formal activities, with the young men often driving their date home late at night before finally heading home themselves.

Depending on the tolerance of the community, the informal activities can be a bit more permissive than singing hymns and playing volleyball. Often the buggies will become a typical teenage party scene, with alcohol, smoking, a radio, illicit smartphones and DVD players, and some less-than-reserved interaction between boys and girls. The punishment for getting caught can be severe, but in many cases the adults tend to turn a blind eye to what’s happening, and let the young people do as they please.

A lot more could be said about the dynamics of this cultural practice, but specifics vary so much between communities that I don’t think there’s much value in doing so. The point I think is relevant to this discussion is the question of sex.

There’s no reason to go off into the weeds on how much, if any, sex occurs. Premarital sex is absolutely forbidden. Does it happen anyway? Humans being human, certainly. How much? Probably very little in most cases. Getting pregnant, or getting someone pregnant, is the one transgression with inevitable life-changing consequences. The “shotgun wedding” is alive and well among the Amish, and getting a girl pregnant means marrying her or being expelled from the Amish community permanently, no exceptions. Besides that, getting pregnant outside of marriage is the most disgraceful and shameful thing a girl could do. It happens very very rarely, put it that way.

So casual sex within the community is basically off the table. What about casual sex with “English” people? This is where the Amish cultural practices play a big role. The Amish dress very distinctly. They can’t go anywhere in their traditional clothes without being instantly recognized. They also don’t drive cars, so going somewhere means getting a ride with someone. And their parents will usually keep an eye on their plans and whereabouts. So let’s imagine how an Amish teenager might go about finding a casual sexual encounter.

First off, getting ahold of a cell phone would be essential. They need some way to communicate with the outside world, and coordinate with their “partner in crime.” A lot of Amish teenagers do this, often with the help of slightly older people who have left the Amish, but keep ties with the community, maybe an older sibling or cousin. These are often the same people who buy alcohol for Amish teens.

Then, they need to get some non-Amish clothes. Remember, every trip away from home will take a willing driver, a plausible excuse in a community where everyone knows everyone, and the guarantee of being immediately recognized if seen in public. And the Amish parents know who the “bad kids” are, the ones who left but are willing to help their younger relatives and friends break the rules. Getting caught hanging around with them will probably mean a lot less trust and a lot less freedom in the future.

For the girls, a change of “English” clothes and a new hairstyle will let them blend in quite well. Of course, they can’t be caught leaving or coming home in those clothes, or have the clothes found at home. Lots of logistical hurdles everywhere. For the boys, they have a very distinctive haircut. A new change of clothes won’t fix that. There’s really no way for them to hide the fact that they’re Amish, even if the accent and the lack of a driver’s license don’t give them away.

Assuming they manage all that, and sneak away from home undetected, how will they find someone to hook up with? They’re very insulated from popular culture, and probably not at all comfortable in typical social situations. For the girls, there’s the added risk that an accidental pregnancy, or even just getting caught, would ruin their reputation and any chance of marriage and a family in the Amish community. So they’re unlikely to even try, unless they’re already fully intending to leave the Amish for good. That only really happens if they have a guy ready to marry them outside the Amish community, for reasons I’ll get into more later. Briefly, the Amish culture and schooling leaves women poorly prepared to support themselves outside that culture.

For the boys, there’s the typical difficulty men face in finding casual sexual partners. Multiply that by the difficulty of not having a car or driver’s license, not being experienced in mainstream social norms, plus that obvious and undisguisable Amish haircut. And all that ignores the lifelong teaching that casual sex is sinful and wrong, and those who engage in it are going against the teachings of God and the church. The entire culture is specifically designed to discourage casual sex as strongly as possible, and it does an excellent job at that.

Why does that matter? Well, humans are all very much the same, with the same desires and instincts. And sex is one of the strongest of those desires. The Amish are certainly no different.

So the Amish religious practice and culture offers a very simple choice. You can choose sex outside of marriage, which will be difficult or impossible, occasional at best, and if you get caught will mean expulsion from the community your life is rooted in, and even if you don’t get caught will mean you’re committing a mortal sin that will keep you out of heaven if you don’t repent and change. Or, you can get married and have all the sex you want, and be respected and rewarded for it.

That’s really all it takes to sell the idea of marriage to most men.

When a couple does decide to get engaged, of course with permission from the girl’s father, the wedding happens within a reasonably short time, in acknowledgement of the temptation young people face in that situation.

So let’s take a little closer look at the gender differences between the choice to stay single or to marry. It’s helpful to lay out the different life paths available, and how they play out over time.

There are very few Amish who remain single throughout their life, and almost all of them are women. So let’s look at it through a man’s perspective first. What kind of life can a single Amish man expect?

First off, a lifetime of celibacy. There’s hardly any need to go further, that’s a deal breaker for most men. If they choose to stay single for some reason, most will leave the Amish completely rather than accept those terms.

So maybe it’s more useful to look at incentives for early marriage, which is the norm. I’m a strong believer that incentives create outcomes, so I’ll be taking a hard look at incentives throughout this article.

Young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, in most cases. Remember, no going off to college either. So from age 14 on, they’re stuck living with Mom and Dad, working full time, and not even keeping their own income. That gets old fast. Getting married, moving out, and starting a family looks better every day. Besides that, Amish women do a lot to improve the lives of their men. The Amish are well known for their delicious food. Well, that’s because the Amish women cook and bake. As a single guy, moving out of Mom’s house means not getting delicious home-cooked food every day. And they don’t have an iPhone to order DoorDash either, so it’s pizza delivery, hiring a driver to go to a restaurant, or whatever you can cook yourself. And Amish boys don’t grow up learning how to cook, that’s women’s work. Same with making clothes. Amish mothers and wives sew clothes for their families, since they’re forbidden to wear commercially available clothes in general. So a single guy is dependent on his mom for new clothes as well. Same with washing clothes. Most Amish have fairly modern clothes washing machines, although they don’t use dryers. But washing and folding clothes isn’t a job most boys grow up doing, so they’re pretty lost if they have to try it.

All in all, there aren’t a lot of upsides to staying single longer than absolutely necessary. There are plenty of benefits to marriage, though. For one, marriage is seen as a necessary step to full maturity as a man. It’s even expressed as a visible marker. Single young men typically stay clean-shaven. Once they get married, shaving is completely forbidden, and they are required to grow out a full beard. So the difference between married and single men is obvious at first glance, and is acknowledged as a marker of full maturity.

Then of course there’s the sexual access. No explanation needed.

Then there are all the benefits of an improved lifestyle a stay-at-home wife provides. That includes cooking, cleaning, washing clothes, caring for a garden, preserving food, helping with farm work or chores, and helping with his business. Many Amish wives are very involved in their husband’s career or business, whether that’s managing the bookkeeping, working in the greenhouses, or helping with daily chores on the farm. While most Amish communities use quite modern household appliances, powered with batteries, kerosene, or air pressure, the work of maintaining a household is still much more involved than for the typical American household. Especially when it comes to sewing, which very few American women do at all, but which took a large percentage of women’s time only a few generations ago. Among the Amish it still does.

I’m only focusing on the incentives for marriage right now, because that’s the first step. Of course, most married couples today don’t have 5-8 children, so there’s more to the story. But universal marriage, particularly early marriage, is an essential part of the puzzle.

Shifting focus to the women, here the picture is even more clear. Almost all lifelong single Amish people are women, and that’s not by choice. The Amish still maintain the “old maid” category that used to be part of mainstream culture. Single Amish women are almost invariably single because no man offered to marry them. Here’s why.

If single life is unappealing for Amish men, it’s positively bleak for women. Marriage and family life is the aspirational goal they’re taught from little up. And for good reason.

With their eighth-grade education, and without a driver’s license and car, their income earning potential is very limited. Most young women who aren’t busy on the farm or with the family business work as schoolteachers, housecleaners, babysitters, or cooks and servers at Amish restaurants or farmers’ markets. None of these jobs pay well. Enough to buy a few personal items, but not enough to buy a house or support even one person. And while it might be acceptable for a single Amish man to eventually buy a house and move out, at some point in his late 20s or early 30s, it’s really not acceptable at any age for an Amish old maid. Those old maids typically end up living with their parents, caring for them in old age, working the same type of jobs young girls do, and probably hoping that at some point an older widower with a family will show up and propose.

Marriage has massive lifestyle benefits for women, even more so than for men. Amish men typically do well financially, and often work in construction as well, or have friends and relatives who do. Amish houses are very nice and well constructed to say the least, and the wife gets the house she wants, the way she wants it. Being stingy with a house for your wife isn’t part of an Amish man’s mentality. Amish women are well rewarded for all their hard work keeping house, with a house they’ll be happy keeping. And of course a nice farm or at least some acreage, with space for a big garden, a barn for any animals, and space for greenhouses or whatever she needs for any home business ambitions she might have.

Along with that, Amish women have a lot of flexibility when it comes to spending money. Many Amish women handle most of the family finances. And the money her husband earns is family money, not his money. While the husband has final say in financial decisions, most Amish men don’t say no to their wives’ purchase requests often. Married Amish women have access to all the creature comforts the church allows to make their lives as pleasant as possible.

When it comes to status, the benefits are just as clear. Amish life revolves around family, and nothing is higher status than a thriving family of your own. The Amish version of posting exotic vacation pictures on Instagram is showing up to a social function with your new baby. It’s the automatic center of attention for weeks, until a newer baby show up in the community. And the default topic of conversation is always a woman’s children and their growth and development. Young girls grow up dreaming of the day they can join those conversations, and old maids are always outsiders in a certain sense, pitied by everyone else for their misfortune.

Being an old maid means being poor, low status, pitied by other women, and destined to live with your parents until they pass, with your only bitter-sweet consolation being the role of aunt to your dozens of nieces and nephews and maid to your sisters and sisters-in-law through their many pregnancies. Getting married means access to a man’s income, a nice new house just the way you want it, a farm, and an automatic status boost as a mother and eventually grandmother who always has lots to contribute to the conversation at social events.

As you can imagine, the incentives strongly favor marriage from both directions. Men benefit through improved lifestyle, status, and access to sex. Women benefit through improved lifestyle, economic opportunity, and status in the social hierarchy.

Given that the selection pool for potential partners is limited, mostly to the local Amish community, or occasionally another Amish community if there’s some interaction through family ties or social events, assortative mating is the norm. Young people can be choosy, sure. But they already know most of the people in their potential mating pool, and have probably known those people for most of their lives. They have a pretty good idea how desirable they are to potential partners, and the girls especially have to think long and hard about turning down a suitor. Men are always the initiators of a relationship, and the risk of turning down an eligible man and then never getting another offer, ending up as a dreaded old maid, is always lurking in the back of their minds.

Besides that, both men and women have multiple ways to improve their spouse’s life. Women are much more than just sexual objects. Their domestic role actually raises their husband’s standard of living significantly, in a way he can’t access as a single man. And men are all valuable to women, both for resources and for status as a wife and mother. Even a very average husband or wife is a massive lifestyle boost over remaining single.

By now it should be pretty clear why marriage is almost universal among the Amish, and marriage at what most would consider a young age (19-23) is more common than not. And I haven’t even mentioned any religious teaching, because frankly I don’t think that’s a major force on an individual level. The religious beliefs shape the social and material landscape, and that landscape provides the practical incentives that cause people to make the choices they do. The fact that an Amish interpretation of the Bible encourages marriage and children is one layer removed from the reasons individual 20-year-old Amish men and women choose to get married.

I pointed out earlier that getting married and having a high birthrate, or even getting married young and having a high birthrate, are not exactly the same thing. Plenty of married couples today have one, two, or even no children, even if they got married young enough to have ten if they chose to do so. So why are the Amish different?

There’s the too-obvious answer: they don’t allow the use of contraceptives. Occam’s razor and all, but it deserves a bit more explanation. After all, the Catholic Church doesn’t allow the use of contraceptives either, and look how well that’s working out for them. Of course the enforcement mechanism doesn’t have the teeth among Catholics that it has among the Amish, but that’s not the whole story. If they were motivated enough, there’d be a way to space the children out more, maybe end up without quite so many, without anyone knowing. That doesn’t happen, because the contraceptive ban is a dead letter when couples want to have as many children as possible, which the Amish typically do.

Again, I’ll go back to incentives. What are the incentives to have children specifically, as many as possible, and not just get married and “plan for a family one day”?

For one, status. For both men and women, a large family is a marker of high status. Parents are respected and honored for doing a good job of raising well-adjusted children.

Children are also less of a financial burden for the Amish. Their children are raised well, but not in a financially intensive way that’s become expected today. They don’t have to buy a new car or SUV to fit the family, they don’t buy every child a boatload of expensive electronic gadgets every birthday and Christmas, they don’t have to pay for frequent vacations or college tuition, and they don’t have to eat out or pay for takeout or pay for childcare or a house cleaner since the wife is handling all those domestic roles herself. And the Amish don’t practice helicopter parenting, so children are much more free to play and amuse themselves without constant supervision from their parents. They don’t have to be driven to 17 different weekly structured activities. They have a farm to play on and shelves full of books to read and some toys to play with if the weather is bad, and that’s about it. And of course as the family grows, the older siblings do a large percentage of the housework and help with the younger children.

The older teenagers that are working outside the home typically give their earnings to their parents, but this basically offsets the cost of raising them, so it isn’t really an incentive to have larger families, just the removal of a disincentive.

The strongest real incentive, other than increased status and cultural inertia, that I observe for large families is that the children are the parents’ retirement plan. The Amish don’t work at jobs that offer pensions or benefits. They are exempt from paying into, but also ineligible to receive, Social Security benefits. The Social Security exemption was granted on the basis that the Amish don’t need government payments to support them in old age, because the family and community will do that. And they do.

How does this work out in practice? First, the Amish don’t practice “retirement” the way most people think of it. They teach that work is honorable and every able-bodied man should work to support his family and to help those in need. So as long as a man is physically able to work, he’ll be employed and supporting himself and his wife. And Amish women move directly from the role of mother to the role of grandmother. It’s not at all uncommon, in fact, for a woman’s first grandchild to be born before her last child is born. So plenty of Amish children are an aunt or uncle at birth, and have a niece or nephew older than they are. Grandmothers are extremely involved in helping their daughters and daughters-in-law with childcare, so they don’t often have a big stretch of free time after their children grow up and move out. And besides that, there are still the significant household responsibilities to attend to.

As a couple gets older and perhaps less able to handle everything on their own, they often move to the home of one of their grown children. Typically not into the home directly, but into what’s called a “dody haus” (grandpa house) which might be a small detached house on the same property, or a separate wing of the larger house, like an in-law suite. Here they’re able to live independently, help care for the grandchildren next door, and still be nearby so their children and grandchildren can give any care they may need in old age. If the couple has an unmarried “old maid” daughter, she’ll typically still be living with them and will be the primary caregiver.

If someone doesn’t have children to care for them, the Amish community will find a way to care for them. Some more distant relative or maybe surviving siblings will step in to help. But the expectation and the rule is that your children and grandchildren will care for you after you’re no longer able to care for yourself. Finding yourself growing old without family is an unfortunate and unpleasant situation, regardless how much the community may try to fill that role. Just as throughout earlier stages of life, social functions and social status revolve around children and family, and anyone without them will be incomplete as a person, something of an inevitable outsider to the joys of life. The best insurance against a lonely and uncomfortable old age is a large family, among which there are certain to be sufficient resources to care for you. Many elderly Amish people die with well over a hundred grandchildren and great-grandchildren, and spend their later years constantly surrounded by children and young people who deeply appreciate and respect them. Being taught and shown that respect toward their own grandparents from a young age is a strong incentive to aspire to the same status one day.

I’m not sure exactly where this fits, but I should point out somewhere that the Amish have an absolutely zero tolerance policy toward divorce. There are no legitimate grounds for divorce whatsoever, and anyone who initiates a divorce will be excommunicated from the church and shunned. If an Amish person’s spouse initiates divorce proceedings, they won’t cooperate with those proceedings in any way. If the divorce happens through the legal system without their consent anyway, they can remain a church member in good standing only by staying celibate as long as their spouse remains alive. The only acceptable second marriage is in the case of the death of a spouse. In those cases, a quick remarriage is the rule among widows and widowers with young children, since raising a family is seen as a job for a married couple, not a single person.

It’s hard to say exactly how this stance against divorce influences marriage and fertility. But it certainly limits exposure to the idea of divorce as a “solution” to marriage difficulties, and incentivizes couples to work things out for their own life satisfaction. And it dramatically reduces the financial risks men face in the modern marriage system, where the potential to lose not only their family, but also a significant portion of their material wealth, raises strong disincentives to marriage. The physical realities of married life versus single life in a more low-tech environment probably discourage divorce, but the added threat of complete social and familial ostracization eliminate it almost entirely.

Conclusion

This article is my attempt to provide some insight into the Amish culture that might help us understand the factors causing their unusually high fertility rate. I’ve titled it as part one, because I plan to follow up with some of my personal opinions on how these insights relate to the broader society. I think a lot of the proposed causes of and solutions to the global demographic collapse are completely incorrect, and my opinion is based heavily on my observation of Amish culture. That will be the focus of part two of this article.

Feel free to comment and post questions. My biggest challenge in writing this article is the fact that I take my familiarity with Amish culture for granted to some degree, so I struggled to choose which points are relevant to understanding the culture for an outsider. I’m sure I skipped over plenty of important details that may leave readers feeling confused, so I’ll do my best to answer any questions you post, and update the article with pertinent information I missed.

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@ 95cbd62b:a5270126

Trong thời đại công nghệ số phát triển mạnh mẽ, nhu cầu tìm kiếm một nền tảng tích hợp đầy đủ tiện ích, an toàn và thân thiện với người dùng ngày càng tăng cao. OK22 đã chứng minh vị thế của mình không chỉ là một nền tảng giải trí trực tuyến, mà còn là một công cụ công nghệ thông minh phục vụ mọi nhu cầu trong đời sống số. Với thiết kế giao diện 100% tiếng Việt và khả năng tương thích trên mọi thiết bị từ máy tính đến điện thoại, OK22 mang đến cho người dùng trải nghiệm mượt mà, dễ sử dụng và hoàn toàn bảo mật. Được phát triển trên nền tảng công nghệ hiện đại, OK22 hỗ trợ người dùng quản lý thông tin cá nhân, thực hiện giao dịch nhanh chóng, lưu trữ dữ liệu an toàn và tiếp cận các tiện ích công nghệ tiên tiến một cách dễ dàng, kể cả với người mới sử dụng.

Một trong những điểm mạnh nổi bật của OK22 chính là khả năng tự động hóa trong xử lý tác vụ, giúp tiết kiệm thời gian và tối ưu hóa hiệu suất làm việc. Nền tảng được trang bị hệ thống bảo mật cao cấp, bảo vệ tối đa quyền riêng tư và tài sản số của người dùng. OK22 còn cung cấp hệ thống hỗ trợ trực tuyến 24/7, giúp người dùng giải quyết mọi vấn đề nhanh chóng mà không bị gián đoạn. Dù là một cá nhân đang tìm kiếm công cụ quản lý tài chính cá nhân, một doanh nghiệp nhỏ cần nền tảng để xử lý đơn hàng và thanh toán, hay một nhóm cộng đồng cần không gian kết nối số – OK22 đều có thể đáp ứng linh hoạt và hiệu quả. Không những vậy, nhờ tích hợp nhiều tính năng như thông báo tự động, đồng bộ dữ liệu đám mây, và tích hợp API mở, OK22 còn dễ dàng kết nối với các nền tảng khác trong hệ sinh thái số, giúp người dùng tạo nên một môi trường làm việc và sinh hoạt thông minh.

Không dừng lại ở đó, OK22 đang ngày càng mở rộng hợp tác với các đối tác lớn trong nhiều lĩnh vực như giáo dục trực tuyến, thương mại điện tử, chăm sóc sức khỏe và tài chính cá nhân. Nền tảng không ngừng cập nhật những công nghệ tiên tiến như AI, blockchain và dữ liệu lớn (Big Data) nhằm mang lại trải nghiệm người dùng tối ưu và đáp ứng nhu cầu ngày càng đa dạng của cộng đồng Việt. Với tốc độ xử lý nhanh, giao diện trực quan và độ tin cậy cao, OK22 không chỉ đơn thuần là một ứng dụng công nghệ – mà còn là người bạn đồng hành tin cậy trong hành trình số hóa của người Việt. Trong tương lai gần, OK22 hứa hẹn sẽ trở thành nền tảng công nghệ không thể thiếu trong mỗi gia đình, tổ chức và doanh nghiệp, đóng vai trò then chốt trong việc thúc đẩy chuyển đổi số toàn diện và phát triển bền vững.

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

Influencers would have you believe there is an ongoing binance bank run but bitcoin wallet data says otherwise.

- binance wallets are near all time highs
- bitfinex wallets are also trending up
- gemini and coinbase are being hit with massive withdrawals though

You should not trust custodians, they can rug you without warning. It is incredibly important you learn how to hold bitcoin yourself, but also consider not blindly trusting influencers with a ref link to shill you.

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ c9badfea:610f861a

Before you post a message or article online, let the LLM check if you are leaking any personal information using this prompt:

Analyze the following text to identify any Personally Identifiable Information (PII): <Your Message>

Replace <Your Message> with your text

If no PII is found, continue by modifying your message to detach it from your personality. You can use any of the following prompts (and further modify it if necessary).

Prompt № 1 - Reddit-Style

Convert the message into a casual, Reddit-style post without losing meaning. Split the message into shorter statements with the same overall meaning. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Prompt № 2 - Advanced Modifications

``` Apply the following modifications to the message: - Rewrite it in lowercase - Use "u" instead of "you" - Use "akchoaly" instead of "actually" - Use "hav" instead of "have" - Use "tgat" instead of "that" - Use comma instead of period - Use British English grammar

Here is the message: ```

Prompt № 3 - Neutral Tone

Rewrite the message to correct grammar errors, and ensure the tone is neutral and free of emotional language: <Your Message>

Prompt № 4 - Cross Translation Technique

Translate the message into Chinese, then translate the resulting Chinese text back into English. Provide only the final English translation. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Check the modified message and send it.

ℹ️ You can use dialects to obfuscate your language further. For example, if you are from the US, you can tell the LLM to use British grammar and vice versa.

⚠️ Always verify the results. Don't fully trust an LLM.

@ 8bf578f4:b6303c41

test

https://nosto.re/6849b84caaa15bdc18ca2e1e1ee00e979c7ecf901787e09054b4bd0196b4ea27.jpg

test svg

https://r2a.primal.net/uploads2/5/b8/22/5b822faaf675e75f49c0129d1f0800762287d04fa3a7a7ce98dddfd017aaf823.svg

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Since its creation, Bitcoin has marked a turning point in the digital money revolution—but its evolution didn’t stop at the original concept of decentralized transactions. Over the years, new technological solutions have been developed to expand its capabilities, making it more efficient and versatile. Among these innovations, smart contracts and the Lightning Network stand out, enabling increased functionality and scalability of the network, and ensuring a faster, cheaper, and more accessible system.

Smart contracts on Bitcoin

Smart contracts are programs that automatically execute certain actions when predefined conditions are met. Although the concept is more commonly associated with other networks, Bitcoin also supports smart contracts, especially through upgrades like Taproot.

• Smart contracts on Bitcoin enable functionalities such as:

01 - Conditional payments: Transactions that are only completed if certain rules are met, such as multi-signatures or specific time conditions.

02 - Advanced fund management: Use of multi-signature wallets, where different parties must approve a transaction before it is processed.

03 - Enhanced privacy: With the Taproot upgrade, smart contracts can be more efficient and indistinguishable from regular transactions, improving privacy across the network.

Although smart contracts on Bitcoin are simpler than those on other platforms, this simplicity is a strength—it preserves the network's security and robustness by avoiding complex vulnerabilities.

Lightning Network: scalability and instant transactions

One of the biggest challenges Bitcoin faces is scalability. Since the original network was designed to prioritize security and decentralization, transaction speed can be limited during periods of high demand. To address this issue, the Lightning Network was created—a second-layer solution that enables near-instant transactions with extremely low fees.

The Lightning Network works by creating payment channels between users, allowing them to conduct multiple transactions off-chain and recording only the final balance on the main Bitcoin blockchain or timechain. Key advantages include:

01 - Speed: Transactions are completed in milliseconds, making Bitcoin more suitable for daily payments.

02 - Low fees: Since transactions occur off-chain, fees are minimal, allowing for viable microtransactions.

03 - Network decongestion: By moving many transactions to the Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s main chain becomes more efficient and less congested.

In summary, Bitcoin continues to evolve technologically to meet the demands of a global financial system. Smart contracts increase its functionality, offering greater flexibility and security in transactions. The Lightning Network improves scalability, making Bitcoin faster and more practical for everyday use. With these innovations, Bitcoin remains at the forefront of the financial revolution, proving that despite its initial limitations, it continues to adapt and grow as a truly decentralized and global monetary system.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Throughout history, money has always been under the control of central authorities, such as governments and banks. These intermediaries have set the rules of the financial system, controlled the issuance of currency, and overseen transactions. However, with the emergence of Bitcoin, a new paradigm began to take shape: decentralized money. This transformation represents a profound shift in how people store and transfer value, challenging the traditional financial model.

• The traditional model: centralized money

01 - Dependence on intermediaries: To carry out transactions, people rely on banks, governments, and other regulatory entities.

02 - Inflation and devaluation: Central banks can print money endlessly, often leading to a loss in purchasing power.

03 - Censorship and restrictions: Access to money can be denied for political, bureaucratic, or institutional reasons, limiting individuals’ financial freedom.

Despite being the dominant model for centuries, the centralized system has shown its vulnerabilities through numerous economic and political crises. It was in this context that Bitcoin emerged as an innovative alternative.

• The revolution of decentralized money

01 - Elimination of intermediaries: Transactions can be made directly between users, without the need for banks or financial companies.

02 - Limited and predictable supply: Bitcoin has a fixed cap of 21 million units, preventing the inflation caused by excessive money printing.

03 - Censorship resistance: No entity can block or prevent transactions, ensuring full financial freedom.

04 - Self-custody: Each user can hold their own funds without relying on a bank or any other institution.

This paradigm shift has a significant impact not only on the financial system but also on how people interact with money and protect their wealth.

Challenges and opposition to financial decentralization

The transition to a decentralized financial system faces several challenges, the main one being resistance from traditional institutions. Banks and governments see Bitcoin as a threat to their control over money and seek to regulate or limit its adoption.

There are also technical and educational barriers. Many people still do not fully understand how Bitcoin works, which can hinder its adoption. However, as more people become aware of the benefits of decentralized money, its use is likely to grow.

In summary, the shift from a centralized financial system to a decentralized one represents one of the most significant transformations of the digital era. Bitcoin leads this movement by offering a censorship-resistant, transparent, and accessible alternative. Despite opposition from the traditional system, the decentralization of money continues to gain momentum, providing greater autonomy and financial freedom to people around the world. This revolution is not just technological, but also social and economic—redefining the way the world understands and uses money.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Singapore, May 14, 2025 — NEUTRON, the leading Lightning Network infrastructure provider in Asia, is announcing a new partnership with Cobo, a globally trusted digital asset custody platform.

Through this collaboration, Cobo will integrate Neutron’s Lightning Network API, enabling real-time, cost-effective Bitcoin transactions across its services.

Neutron’s mission is to make the Lightning Network the financial backbone for modern Bitcoin use, bridging traditional finance with Bitcoin’s borderless, decentralized economy.

“We’re thrilled to partner with Cobo, a trusted leader in custodial services, to further accelerate Bitcoin infrastructure across Asia,” said Albert Buu, CEO of Neutron. 

“At Neutron, we are committed to providing enterprise businesses with easy and efficient integration into the Lightning Network, enabling next-generation global real-time settlement solutions.

“This partnership will not only drive innovation but also empower businesses across Asia with the fast, secure, and cost-effective benefits of Bitcoin payments.”

Neutron: The Lightning Engine for Bitcoin Adoption

Neutron provides a comprehensive API suite that allows businesses to instantly access the power of the Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s second-layer protocol designed for high-speed, scalable, and low-fee payments.

The integration is part of Neutron’s broader vision to equip forward-thinking institutions with the tools needed to participate in the next generation of Bitcoin utility.

Lightning-Powered Custody for the Next Era of Finance

Cobo’s integration of Neutron’s API gives institutional clients an additional option for BTC settlement, making Lightning Network access more programmable and easier to integrate within their existing systems.

“At Cobo, we’ve built our custody platform to combine uncompromising security with the scalability institutions need to grow,” said Dr. Changhao Jiang, CTO and Co-Founder of Cobo.

“Integrating Neutron’s Lightning Network API allows us to offer real-time, low-cost Bitcoin settlement at scale without compromising on trust or performance. Together, we’re laying the groundwork for faster, more efficient Bitcoin infrastructure across Asia.”

About Neutron

Neutron is Asia’s leading Bitcoin infrastructure company, helping businesses and individuals unlock the power of the Lightning Network, specializing in Lightning-as-a-Service.

nThrough its scalable API platform, mobile app, and lending product, Neutron empowers businesses and individuals to send, receive, save, and build with Bitcoin.
Want to bring Lightning into your product or platform? Reach out to our team at sales@neutron.me or visit us at www.neutron.me

About Cobo

Cobo is a trusted leader in digital asset custody and wallet infrastructure, providing an all-in-one platform for organizations and developers to easily build, automate, and scale their digital asset businesses securely.

Founded in 2017 by blockchain pioneers and headquartered in Singapore, Cobo is trusted by more than 500 leading digital asset businesses globally, safeguarding billions of dollars in assets.

Today, Cobo offers the industry’s only unified wallet platform that integrates all four digital asset wallet technologies – Custodial Wallets, MPC Wallets, Smart Contract Wallets, and Exchange Wallets.

Committed to the highest security standards and regulatory compliance, Cobo has a zero-incident track record and holds ISO 27001, SOC2 (Type 1 and Type 2) certifications, as well as licenses in multiple jurisdictions.

Recognized for its industry-leading innovations, Cobo has received accolades from prestigious entities such as Hedgeweek and Global Custodian. For more information, please visit www.cobo.com

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

It's been a hell of a week in Austin, Texas. The Texas Energy & Mining Summit was held at Bitcoin Park Austin on Tuesday and yesterday. Around 200 people from across the energy sector and the mining sector convened to discuss the current state of bitcoin mining, how it integrates with energy systems, and where things are going in the near to medium term. Representatives from ERCOT, Halliburton, and some of the largest mining companies in the world were in attendence. Across town, Bitcoin++ is holding their conference on mempools, which is fitting considering there is currently an ongoing debate about mempool policy and whether or not Bitcoin Core should eliminate the data limit on OP_RETURN.

I've had the pleasure of participating in both events. At the Texas Energy & Mining Summit I opened up the two-day event with the opening panel on why Texas is perfectly suited not only for bitcoin mining but for the bitcoin industry in general. Texas is a state that highly values private property rights, low taxes, and free market competition. It's become clear to me over the four years that I've lived in Texas that it is an incredible place to start a bitcoin business. The energy down here (pun intended) is palpable.

I also hosted the ending panel with Nick Gates from Priority Power, Will Cole from Zaprite and Jay Beddict from Foundry about what we have to look forward to through the rest of the year. I think the consensus was pretty clear on the panel, there's never been a more bullish setup for bitcoin historically. The political support we're getting here in the United States, the institutional adoption that we're seeing, and the fervor around protocol level development are all pointing in the right direction. Even though the discussions around protocol development can be contentious at times, it's a signal that people really care about this open source monetary protocol that we're all building on. We all agreed that Bitcoin has never been more de-risked than it is today. That is not to say that there aren't any risk.

We also discussed the problem with mining pool centralization and the FPPS payout scheme and why people need to be paying attention to it. But I think overall, things are looking pretty good right now.

Yesterday I also had the pleasure of running the live desk at Bitcoin++ speaking with many of the developers building out the protocol layer and layers above bitcoin. It's always extremely humbling to sit down and speak with the developers because they are so damn smart. Brilliant people who really care deeply about bitcoin. Even though many of them have very different views about the state of bitcoin and how to build it out moving forward. I view my role on the live desk is simply to try to get everybody's perspective. Not only on the OP_RETURN discussion, but on the future of bitcoin and how the protocol progresses from a technical perspective.

I had many conversations. The first with Average Gary and VNPRC, who are working on hashpools, which are attempting to solve the mining pool centralization and privacy problems that exists by using ecash. Hashpool gives miners the ability to exchange hash shares for ehash tokens. that are immediately liquid and exchangeable for bitcoin over the lightning network. Solving the consistent payout and liquidity problem that miners are always trying to solve. Currently FPPS payout schemes are the way they solve these problems. I'm incredibly optimistic about the hashpools project.

I also had the pleasure of speaking with SuperTestNet and Dusty Daemon, who are both focused on making bitcoin more inherently private at the protocol layer and on the lightning network. I think Dusty's work on splicing is very underappreciated right now and is something that you should all look into. Dusty also explained an idea he has that would make CoinJoin coordination much easier by creating a standardized coordination protocol. I'm going to butcher the explanation here, But I think the general idea is to create a way for people to combine inputs by monitoring the lightning network and looking for individual actors who are looking to rebalance channels and opportunistically set up a collaborative transaction with them. This is something I think everyone should look into and champion because I think it would be incredibly beneficial to on-chain privacy. As Bitcoin scales and gets adopted by millions and billions of people over the next few decades.

I also had the pleasure of speaking with Andrew Poelstra and Boerst about cryptography and block templates. For those of you who are unaware, Andrew Poelstra the Head of Research at Blockstream and on the cutting edge of the cryptography that bitcoin uses and may implement in the future. We had a wide ranging discussion about OP_RETURN, FROST, Musig2, Miniscript, quantum. resistant cryptographic libraries, and how Bitcoin Core actually works as a development project.

I also spoke with Liam Egan from Alpen Labs. He's working on ZK rollups on Bitcoin. Admittedly, this is an area I haven't explored too deeply, so it was awesome to sit down with Liam and get his perspective. Alpen Labs is leveraging BitVM to enable their rollups.

I highly recommend if and when you get the time to check out the YouTube stream of the Live Desk. A lot of very deep, technical conversations, but if you're really interested to learn how bitcoin actually works and some of the ideas that are out there to make it better, this is an incredible piece of content to watch. I'm about to head over for day two of Bitcoin++ to run the Live Desk again. So if you get this email before we go live make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and tune in for the day.

One thing I will say. Last night, there was a debate about OP_RETURN and I think it's important to note that despite how vitriolic people may get on Twitter, it's always interesting to see people with diametrically opposed views get together and have civil debates. It's obvious that everyone involved cares deeply about bitcoin. Having these tough conversations in person is very important. Particularly, civil conversations. I certainly think yesterday's debate was civil. Though, I will say I think that as bitcoiners, we should hold ourselves to a higher standard of decorum when debates like this are had.

Tyler Campbell from Unchained mentioned that it is insane that there was such a small group of people attending this particular debate about the future of a two trillion dollar protocol. Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 again as I type and no one in big tech, no one in big finance outside of people looking for bitcoin treasury plays is really paying attention to what's happening at the protocol level. This is simply funny to observe and probably a good thing in the long run. But, Meta, Stripe, Apple, Visa, Mastercard and the Teslas of the world are all asleep at the wheel as we build out the future of money.

The $1 Trillion Basis Trade Time Bomb

The massive basis trade currently looming over financial markets represents a systemic risk that dwarfs previous crises. As James Lavish warned during our conversation, approximately $1 trillion in leveraged positions exist within this trade - ten times larger than those held by Long-Term Capital Management before its 1998 collapse. These trades employ staggering leverage ratios between 20x to 100x just to make minuscule basis point differences profitable. The Brookings Institution, which Lavish describes as a "tacit research arm of the Fed," has published a paper explicitly warning about this trade's dangers.

"The Brookings Institution came out with a solution... instead of printing money this time, the Fed will just take the whole trade off of the hedge funds books. Absolutely, utterly maniacal. The thought of the Fed becoming a hedge fund... it's nuts." - James Lavish

What makes this situation particularly alarming is how an unwind could trigger cascading margin calls throughout interconnected financial markets. As Lavish explained, when positions begin unwinding, prices move dramatically, triggering more margin calls that force more selling. This "powder keg behind the scenes" is being closely monitored by sophisticated investors who understand its destructive potential. Unlike a controlled demolition, this unwinding could quickly become chaotic, potentially forcing unprecedented Fed intervention.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Bitcoin's role as the neutral reserve asset, nation-state mining strategies, and the repeal of SAB 121's impact on banking adoption.

Headlines of the Day

Panama City Signs Deal for Bitcoin Municipal Payments - via X

U.S. Economy Polls Show Falling Confidence in Trump Leadership - via CNBC

Jack Mallers's Bitcoin Bank Targets $500 Trillion Market - via X

Bitcoin Decouples From Markets With 10% Gain Amid Asset Slump - via X

---

Looking for the perfect video _to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 2

@ 3c506452:fef9202b

Kia ora ra!

I thought I'd look into the claim made by Tim Ferriss and see if these sentence patterns are able to give a brief overview of te reo and it's structure.

I initially struggled to stick with a single sentence as it didn't accurately reflect how the reo is actually spoken so I have included what I feel are the most "normal" sounding structures that one will probably encounter.

Here is the full list:

1. The apple is red.

E whero te tae o te aporo / E whero te aporo.\ He whero te tae o te aporo / He whero te aporo.\ Ko te aporo e whero nei te tae / Ko te aporo e whero nei tona tae.\ E whero ana te tae o te aporo.\ He aporo whero / Ko te aporo whero.

2. It is John's apple.

Ma John te aporo / Na John te aporo.\ He aporo ma John / He aporo na John.\ Ko te aporo a John / Ko ta John aporo.

3. I give John the apple.

Mahaku te aporo e hoatu ma John.\ E hoatu ana te aporo ki a John.\ Ko te aporo e hoatu nei e au ki a John.\ E hoatu ana mahana.

4. We give him the apple.

Ma ma[ua/tou] te aporo e hoatu ma John.\ E hoatu ana te aporo ki a John.\ Ko te aporo e hoatu nei e ma[ua/tou] ki a John.\ E hoatu ana mahana.

5. He gives it to John.

Mahana e hoatu ma John / Nahana i hoatu ma John.\ E hoatu ana ki a John.\ E hoatu ana mahana.

6. She gives it to him.

Mahana e hoatu mahana / Nahana i hoatu mahana.\ Mahana e hoatu / Nahana i hoatu.\ E hoatu ana ki a ia.\ E hoatu ana mahana.

7. Is the apple red?

E whero te tae o te aporo? / E whero te aporo?\ He whero te tae o te aporo?/ He whero te aporo?\ Ko te aporo e whero nei te tae? / Ko te aporo e whero nei tona tae?\ E whero ana te tae o te aporo?\ He aporo whero? / Ko te aporo whero?

8. The apples are red.

E whero te tae o nga aporo / E whero nga aporo.\ He whero te tae o nga aporo / He whero nga aporo.\ Ko nga aporo e whero nei te tae / Ko nga aporo e whero nei ona tae.\ E whero ana te tae o nga aporo.\ He aporo whero / Ko nga aporo whero.

9. I must give it to him.

Hoatu e au te mea ki a ia.\ Hoatu e au mahana.\ Mahaku e hoatu mahana.\ Me hoatu ki a ia.\ E hoatu ai mahana.

10. I want to give it to her.

Mahaku noa e hoatu.\ Waiho mahaku e hoatu.

1. I'm going to know tomorrow. Apopo ka mohio ai / Aoake te ra ka mohio ai.\ Ka mohio au apopo / Ka mohio au a aoake te ra.

12. I can't eat the apple.

Ehara i te mea mahaku te aporo te kai.

13. I have eaten the apple.

Kua kai ke au i te aporo.\ Kua pau te aporo te kai i au.\ Nahaku te aporo i kai.\ Ko te aporo nahaku nei i kai ai.\ He mea kai e au te aporo.

@ 1d7ff02a:d042b5be

ຄົນສ່ວນຫຼາຍມັກຈະມອງເຫັນ Bitcoin ເປັນສິນຊັບທີ່ມີຄວາມສ່ຽງສູງ ເນື່ອງຈາກມີອັດຕາການປ່ຽນແປງລາຄາທີ່ຮຸນແຮງແລະກວ້າງຂວາງໃນໄລຍະສັ້ນໆ. ແຕ່ຄວາມຈິງແລ້ວ ຄວາມຜັນຜວນຂອງ Bitcoin ແມ່ນຄຸນລັກສະນະພິເສດທີ່ສຳຄັນຂອງມັນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຂໍ້ບົກພ່ອງ.

ລາຄາແມ່ນຫຍັງ?

ເພື່ອເຂົ້າໃຈເລື້ອງນີ້ດີຂຶ້ນ ເຮົາຕ້ອງເຂົ້າໃຈກ່ອນວ່າລາຄາໝາຍເຖິງຫຍັງ. ລາຄາແມ່ນການສະທ້ອນຄວາມຄິດເຫັນແລະການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຜູ້ຊື້ແລະຜູ້ຂາຍໃນເວລາໃດໜຶ່ງ. ການຕັດສິນໃຈຊື້ຫຼືຂາຍໃນລາຄາໃດໜຶ່ງ ກໍແມ່ນການສື່ສານກັບຕະຫຼາດ ແລະກົນໄກຂອງຕະຫຼາດຈະຄ້ົນຫາແລະກໍານົດລາຄາທີ່ແທ້ຈິງຂອງສິນຊັບນັ້ນ.

ເປັນຫຍັງ Bitcoin ຈຶ່ງຜັນຜວນ?

Bitcoin ຖືກສ້າງຂຶ້ນບົນພື້ນຖານອິນເຕີເນັດ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການສື່ສານຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຜູ້ຄົນສາມາດເຮັດໄດ້ຢ່າງໄວວາ. ຍິ່ງໄປກວ່ານັ້ນ Bitcoin ມີລັກສະນະກະຈາຍສູນ (decentralized) ແລະບໍ່ມີຜູ້ຄວບຄຸມສູນກາງ ຈຶ່ງເຮັດໃຫ້ຄົນສາມາດຕັດສິນໃຈຊື້ຂາຍໄດ້ຢ່າງໄວວາ.

ສິ່ງນີ້ເຮັດໃຫ້ລາຄາຂອງ Bitcoin ສາມາດສະທ້ອນຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຄົນໄດ້ແບບເວລາຈິງ (real-time). ແລະເນື່ອງຈາກມະນຸດເຮົາມີຄວາມຄິດທີ່ບໍ່ແນ່ນອນ ມີການປ່ຽນແປງ ລາຄາຂອງ Bitcoin ຈຶ່ງປ່ຽນແປງໄປຕາມຄວາມຄິດເຫັນລວມຂອງຜູ້ຄົນແບບທັນທີ.

ປັດໄຈທີ່ເພີ່ມຄວາມຜັນຜວນ:

ຂະໜາດຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຍັງນ້ອຍ: ເມື່ອປຽບທຽບກັບຕະຫຼາດການເງິນແບບດັ້ງເດີມ ຕະຫຼາດ Bitcoin ຍັງມີຂະໜາດນ້ອຍ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການຊື້ຂາຍຈຳນວນໃຫຍ່ສາມາດສົ່ງຜົນກະທົບຕໍ່ລາຄາໄດ້ຫຼາຍ.

ການຄ້າຂາຍຕະຫຼອດ 24/7: ບໍ່ເຫມືອນກັບຕະຫຼາດຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ມີເວລາເປີດປິດ Bitcoin ສາມາດຊື້ຂາຍໄດ້ຕະຫຼອດເວລາ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການປ່ຽນແປງລາຄາສາມາດເກີດຂຶ້ນໄດ້ທຸກເວລາ.

ການປຽບທຽບກັບສິນຊັບອື່ນ

ເມື່ອປຽບທຽບກັບສິນຊັບອື່ນທີ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ເຊັ່ນ ສະກຸນເງິນທ້ອງຖິ່ນຫຼືທອງຄຳ ທີ່ເບິ່ງຄືວ່າມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນໜ້ອຍກວ່າ Bitcoin ນັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າພວກມັນບໍ່ມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນ. ແຕ່ເປັນເພາະມີການຄວບຄຸມຈາກອົງການສູນກາງ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການສື່ສານຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຄົນໄປຮອດຕະຫຼາດບໍ່ແບບເວລາຈິງ.

ດັ່ງນັ້ນ ສິ່ງທີ່ເຮົາເຫັນແມ່ນການຊັກຊ້າ (delay) ໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງອອກມາເທົ່ານັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຄວາມໝັ້ນຄົງຂອງມູນຄ່າ.

ກົນໄກການຄວບຄຸມແລະຜົນກະທົບ:

ສະກຸນເງິນ: ທະນາຄານກາງສາມາດພິມເງິນ ປັບອັດຕາດອກເບີ້ຍ ແລະແຊກແຊງຕະຫຼາດ ເຮັດໃຫ້ລາຄາບໍ່ສະທ້ອນມູນຄ່າທີ່ແທ້ຈິງໃນທັນທີ.

ຫຼັກຊັບ: ມີລະບຽບການຫຼາຍຢ່າງ ເຊັ່ນ ການຢຸດການຊື້ຂາຍເມື່ອລາຄາປ່ຽນແປງຫຼາຍເກີນໄປ (circuit breakers) ທີ່ຂັດຂວາງການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ທອງຄຳ: ຖຶງແມ່ນຈະເປັນສິນຊັບທີ່ບໍ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ແຕ່ຕະຫຼາດທອງຄຳມີຂະໜາດໃຫຍ່ກວ່າ Bitcoin ຫຼາຍ ແລະມີການຄ້າແບບດັ້ງເດີມທີ່ຊ້າກວ່າ.

ບົດສະຫຼຸບ

ການປຽບທຽບຄວາມຜັນຜວນລະຫວ່າງ Bitcoin ແລະສິນຊັບອື່ນໆ ໂດຍໃຊ້ໄລຍະເວລາສັ້ນນັ້ນ ບໍ່ມີຄວາມສົມເຫດສົມຜົນປານໃດ ເພາະວ່າປັດໄຈເລື້ອງການຊັກຊ້າໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນນີ້ແມ່ນສິ່ງສຳຄັນທີ່ສົ່ງຜົນຕໍ່ລາຄາທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນເຮັດແທ້ໆແມ່ນການນຳເອົາກອບເວລາທີ່ກວ້າງຂວາງກວ່າມາວິເຄາະ ເຊັ່ນ ເປັນປີຫຼືຫຼາຍປີ ແລ້ວຈຶ່ງປຽບທຽບ. ດ້ວຍວິທີນີ້ ເຮົາຈຶ່ງຈະເຫັນປະສິດທິຜົນແລະການດຳເນີນງານທີ່ແທ້ຈິງຂອງ Bitcoin ໄດ້ຢ່າງຈະແຈ້ງ

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Bitcoin-focused investment firm Twenty One Capital has made headlines after buying 4,812 BTC worth $458.7 million, making it the third-largest corporate holder of the scarce digital asset.

The move is a big and public one towards becoming the “ultimate Bitcoin investment vehicle” according to its leadership, and is turning heads in both bitcoin and tradfi world.

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, bought the bitcoin on behalf of Twenty One Capital.

According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 13, Tether acquired the bitcoin on May 9 at an average price of $95,319 per coin.

Twenty One Capital was launched in April 2025 through a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, a Cayman Islands-based firm affiliated with Wall Street giant Cantor Fitzgerald. The company is backed by Tether, Bitfinex exchange and Japanese investment giant SoftBank.

Related: Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether and SoftBank Launch $3B Bitcoin Venture

The firm is led by Jack Mallers, founder of the bitcoin payments app Strike, who has been vocal about bitcoin business models.

“We want to be the ultimate vehicle for the capital markets to participate in Bitcoin… building on top of Bitcoin,” said Mallers in an interview. “So we are a Bitcoin business at our core.”

At launch, Twenty One Capital had 31,500 bitcoin on the balance sheet with plans to get to at least 42,000 BTC.

The breakdown of that initial allocation was 23,950 BTC from Tether, 10,500 BTC from SoftBank and about 7,000 BTC from Bitfinex—all to be converted into equity at $10 per share.

The company is openly modeling its strategy after what Bitcoiners call “Saylorization”—a term coined after Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, who started large-scale bitcoin accumulation by corporations in 2020.

“Twenty One Capital isn’t just stacking sats,” said Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser, “It’s leading a generational shift in corporate capital allocation … Jack Mallers is taking the Saylor playbook and turning it into an arms race.”

The strategy is simple: use bitcoin per share as a metric instead of earnings per share, prioritize bitcoin accumulation over short-term profits, and use the capital markets to fund purchases. Mallers said:

“We do intend to raise as much capital as we possibly can to acquire bitcoin. We will never have bitcoin per share negative… Our intent is to make sure when you are a shareholder of Twenty One that you are getting wealthier in Bitcoin terms.”

The bitcoin purchase was made at a time of growing market momentum.

On May 14, bitcoin hit $105,000 briefly before settling at around $104,000—a 7.5% gain in the past week. Retail buying has also picked up, with purchases under $10,000 up 3.4% over two weeks, suggesting continued bullishness.

@ a296b972:e5a7a2e8

„Aaaach, was für ein herrlicher Tag!“

In Berlin geht man hochmotiviert an die Arbeit, in der tiefen Überzeugung stets die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen, die Steuern der Einzahler ausschließlich für wohlüberlegte, notwendige Investitionen auszugeben und Entscheidungen zu treffen, die im dem Umfeld, in dem man sich bewegt, als höchst sinnvoll erachtet werden. Zustimmung von allen Seiten, dann muss es ja richtig sein.

Man fährt im Dienstwagen ins Regierungsviertel, sieht die vielen geschäftigen Menschen, wie sie ebenfalls zur Arbeit eilen. Man freut sich darüber, dass alles so gut läuft, dank der überragenden Kompetenz, die man einbringen darf und die das alles ermöglicht.

In Gedanken klopft man sich auf die Schulter und sagt sich im Stillen: „Bist schon ein geiler Typ, der richtig was bewegen kann, bewegen kann.“

Man hat auch schon erkannt, dass die zunehmende Kriminalität, vorzugsweise mit einem unsachgemäß gebrauchten Messer, durch den schlechten Einfluss der sozialen Medien entstanden ist und schon entsprechende Maßnahmen auf den Weg gebracht, um das durch geleitete Meinungsäußerungen, selbstverständlich zum Wohle aller, zu unterbinden. Man ist ja nicht umsonst in diese verantwortungsvolle Position gelangt. „Endlich am Ziel!“

„Messerattacken sind unschön, unschön, aber man muss auch berücksichtigen, dass viele der Attentäter und Attentäterinnen in ihren Herkunftsländern Schlimmes erlebt haben und dadurch traumatisiert wurden. Den betroffenen Traumaopfern kann ja nichts Besseres passieren, als in eine deutsche Psychiatrie zu kommen, wo sie die allerbeste Therapie erfahren, um wieder glückliche Menschen der Gesellschaft zu werden.

** **

Und jeder, der nicht die große soziale Aufgabe erkennt, die wir uns gestellt haben und auch effizient umsetzen, muss es eben noch besser erklärt bekommen, erklärt bekommen. Daran müssen wir noch arbeiten. (Muss ich mir notieren, damit ich meinem Sekretär die Anweisung erteile, das in die Wege zu leiten). Und jeder, der sich dagegen sträubt, zeigt damit eindeutig, dass er zum rechten Rand gehört. Was denen nur einfällt? Da müssen klare Zeichen gesetzt werden, und das muss unter allen Umständen unterbunden werden, unterbunden werden.

** **

Sowas schadet der Demokratie, es delegitimiert sie“.

Zum Schutz der braven Bürger arbeitet man auch fleißig daran, Deutschland, in neuem Selbstbewusstsein, zur stärksten Kraft in Europa zu machen. Mit der Stationierung von deutschen Soldaten an der Ostfront, pardon, an der Ostflanke, zeigt man dem bösen, aggressiven Russen schon mal, was eine Harke ist. „Und das ist ja erst der Anfang, der Anfang. Warte nur ab!“

„Was noch? Ach ja, die Wirtschaft. Solange die nicht auf die Barrikaden geht, das sehe ich derzeit nicht, scheint es ja noch keinen akuten Handlungsbedarf zu geben. Darum kümmern wir uns später. Immerhin halten sich die Wirtschaftsprognosen in einem akzeptablen Rahmen und die Priorität (die kann auch nicht jeder richtig setzen) der Investitionen muss derzeit auf dem wichtigsten Bereich, der Aufrüstung liegen, Aufrüstung liegen. Schließlich werden wir bald angegriffen.

** **

Ich darf nicht vergessen, meinen Sekretär zu beauftragen, meine Bestellung im Feinkostladen abholen zu lassen, sonst gibt’s Zuhause Ärger. Ach ja, und die Anzüge und die Wäsche muss auch noch aus der Reinigung abgeholt werden. Darf ich nicht vergessen, nicht vergessen.

** **

Wie viele Reinigungen gäbe es nicht, wenn wir Politiker nicht wären, nicht wären. Viele sichere Arbeitsplätze, gut so!

** **

Was, schon da? Das ging aber heute schnell. Kein Stau. Ja, der Chauffeur ist schon ein Guter, der weiß, wo man lang muss, um Baustellen zu umfahren. Allerdings muss ich ihm bei nächster Gelegenheit noch einmal deutlich sagen, dass er bitte die Sitzheizung früher anzuschalten hat, anzuschalten hat! Dass der sich das immer noch nicht gemerkt hat, unmöglich!“

Wen wundert es, wenn in dieser Wonnewelt der Selbstüberschätzung von Unsererdemokratie gesprochen wird, so entrückt vom Alltag, in einem Raumschiff, dass völlig losgelöst von der Realität über allem schwebt.

„Ich müsste ja verrückt sein, wenn ich an diesen Zuständen etwas ändern wollte. Warum auch, es läuft doch und mir geht es doch gut. Ich habe ein gutes Einkommen, kann mir allerhand leisten, Haus ist bezahlt, Frau ist gut untergebracht, Kinder sind versorgt, wie die Zeit vergeht. Und wenn ich mal ausscheide, erhalte ich weiter meine Bezüge und muss nicht an mein Vermögen ran, man will ja auch den Kindern was hinterlassen. Schadet ja nicht, wenn ich mich etwas einschränke, und der eine oder andere Job wird schon an mich herangetragen werden, schließlich habe ich ja erstklassige Kontakte, die dem einen oder anderen sicher etwas wert sein werden.

** **

Na, dann woll’n wir mal wieder, woll’n wir mal wieder!“

Dieser Artikel wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben

* *

(Bild von pixabay)

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.

Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.

The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.

There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.

Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.

Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Vivek Ramaswamy’s company bets on distressed bitcoin claims as its Bitcoin treasury strategy moves forward.

Strive Enterprises, an asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is exploring the acquisition of distressed bitcoin claims, with particular interest in around 75,000 BTC tied to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to build a Bitcoin treasury ahead of its planned merger with Asset Entities.

According to a document filed on May 20 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive has partnered with 117 Castell Advisory Group to “identify and evaluate” distressed Bitcoin claims with confirmed legal judgments. Among these are approximately 75,000 BTC connected to Mt. Gox, with an estimated market value of $8 billion at current prices.

Essentially, Strive aims to acquire rights to bitcoins currently tied up in legal disputes, which can be purchased at a discount by those willing to take on the risk and wait for eventual recovery.

In a post on X, Strive’s CFO, Ben Pham, stated:

“Strive intends to use all available mechanisms, including novel financial strategies not used by other Bitcoin treasury companies, to maximize its exposure to the asset.”

The company also plans to buy cash at a discount by merging with publicly traded companies holding more cash than their stock value, using the excess funds to purchase additional Bitcoin.

Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, is currently in the process of repaying creditors, with a deadline set for October 31, 2025.

In its SEC filing, Strive declared:

“This strategy is intended to allow Strive the opportunity to purchase Bitcoin exposure at a discount to market price, enhancing Bitcoin per share and supporting its goal of outperforming Bitcoin over the long run.”

At the beginning of May, Strive announced its merger plan with Asset Entities, a deal that would create the first publicly listed asset management firm focused on Bitcoin. The resulting company aims to join the growing number of firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The corporate treasury trend

Strive’s initiative to accumulate bitcoin mirrors that of other companies like Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet. On May 19, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional 7,390 BTC for $764.9 million, raising its total holdings to 576,230 BTC. On the same day, Metaplanet revealed it had acquired another 1,004 BTC, increasing its total to 7,800 BTC.

The post Bitcoin in Strive’s sights: 75,000 BTC from Mt. Gox among its targets appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

According to the ECB Executive Board member, the launch of the digital euro depends on the timing of the EU regulation.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is making progress in preparing for the digital euro. According to Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member and coordinator of the project, the technical phase “is proceeding quickly and on schedule,” but moving to operational implementation still requires political approval of the regulation at the European level.

Speaking at the ‘Voices on the Future’ event organized by Ansa and Asvis, Cipollone outlined a possible timeline:

“If the regulation is approved at the start of 2026 — in the best-case scenario for the European legislative process — we could see the first transactions with the digital euro by mid-2028.”

Cipollone also highlighted Europe’s current dependence on electronic payment systems managed by non-European companies:

“Today in Europe, whenever we don’t use cash, any transaction online or at the supermarket has to go through credit cards, with their fees. The payment system relies on companies that aren’t based in Europe. You can see why it would make sense to have a system fully under our control.”

For the ECB board member, the digital euro would act as a direct alternative to cash in the digital world, working like “a banknote you can spend anywhere in Europe for any purpose.”

The digital euro project is part of the ECB’s broader strategy to strengthen the independence of Europe’s financial system. According to Cipollone and the Central Bank, Europe’s digital currency would be a key step toward greater autonomy in electronic payments, reducing reliance on infrastructure and services outside the European Union.

The post ECB: digital euro by mid-2028, says Cipollone appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 6a6be47b:3e74e3e1

Hi, frens!

🥳 This is my first post over here, yaaay! I’m very excited to start this journey. I have lots of posts on my website https://samhainsam.art/ , but I decided to give you a short introduction to me and my artwork. Shall we?

But first, how’s your weekend going? Already dreading Monday, or just enjoying the moment? I hope it’s the latter, but if not, that’s okay too. Everything passes, and while that might not be the most comforting thought, knowing that it will eventually pass—and, most importantly, that we get to decide how to respond—makes a big difference. Either way, we’re all going to die, so take it as you wish! 😅

Anyway, I wanted to share a little something. If you’ve visited my shop on Ko-fi https://ko-fi.com/samhainsam/shop , you might have wondered why it seems a bit all over the place. Or maybe you haven’t noticed or don’t care—but either way, I thought I’d clarify.

🖼️ I’m a self-taught artist who loves everything related to religion, occultism, paganism, animals, and esotericism—and how all these themes intertwine in our lives. I paint and illustrate inspired by these ideas.

Most of my recent paintings come with a blog post explaining their background. Even before, I always researched the subjects I painted, but lately, I’ve been diving much deeper.

🎨 My “Wheel of the Year” series has completely fascinated me. I’ve been learning so many nuggets of wisdom, and discovering how Christianity borrowed or even erased many symbols and traditions to create new narratives. For example, Imbolc was rebranded as Candlemas, and my blog post about the Spanish Inquisition touches on some of these symbols and their impact on both past and present society.

🐦 I also have some paintings just about birds—I'm a bit of a sucker for them! Shoebills and cassowaries are among my favorites, and I might end up painting them again soon. But you get the picture! If not, why not take a peek at my blog? https://samhainsam.art/blog/

🖋️ You can read something fun and interesting while enjoying my artwork.

Come on over, and let’s have some cool and healthy fun.

Enjoy your weekend, my friends!

Godspeed ⚡

https://stacker.news/items/988069

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

A new study reveals: 4 out of 5 Americans would like the US to convert some of its gold into Bitcoin.

A recent survey conducted by the Nakamoto Project revealed that a majority of Americans support converting a portion of the United States’ gold reserves into Bitcoin. The survey, carried out online by Qualtrics between February and March 2025, involved 3,345 participants with demographic characteristics representative of US census standards. Most respondents expressed a desire to convert between 1% and 30% of the gold reserves into BTC.

Troy Cross, co-founder of the Nakamoto Project, stated:

“When given a slider and asked to advise the US government on the right proportion of Bitcoin and gold, subjects were very reluctant to put that slider on 0% Bitcoin and 100% gold. Instead, they settled around 10% Bitcoin.”

One significant finding from the research is the correlation between age and openness to Bitcoin: younger respondents showed a greater inclination toward the cryptocurrency compared to older generations.

A potential US strategy

Bo Hines, a White House advisor, is promoting an initiative for the Treasury Department to acquire Bitcoin by selling off a portion of its gold. Under the proposed plan, the government could acquire up to 1 million BTC over the next five years.

To finance these purchases, the government plans to sell Federal Reserve gold certificates. The proposal aligns with Senator Cynthia Lummis’ 2025 Bitcoin Act, which aims to declare Bitcoin a critical national strategic asset.

Currently, the United States holds 8,133 metric tons of gold, valued at over $830 billion, and about 200,000 BTC, valued at $21 billion.

The post The majority in the US wants to convert part of the gold reserves into Bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 1b9fc4cd:1d6d4902

Music in media is like audio umami, the perfect seasoning in a recipe. It has the ability to enhance flavor and provide depth. Daniel Siegel Alonso examines how music is indispensable in enchanting consumers, from the memorable jingles of television commercials to the emotionally charged earworms in viral videos. Its influence is ubiquitous, transforming ordinary content into unforgettable experiences, evoking emotions, and molding cultural trends.

Television Commercials: The Jingle Jungle

Siegel Alonso begins by considering the television commercial. Music is the secret weapon in advertising and marketing, where attention spans can be shorter than the length of a cat video on TikTok. With its catchy melody and simple lyrics, the classic jingle is a masterclass in auditory branding. Do you remember 1971's "I'd Like to Buy the World a Coke"? That was more than just a tune; it was a cultural touchstone.

Today, in modern advertising, music's role transcends nostalgic jingles. Brands now curate full-fledged soundtracks to build an emotional narrative. Take Apple's commercials, for example. They often spotlight indie artists whose songs capture the essence of innovation and simplicity. These choices aren't random; they align with the brand's identity and leave a lasting impression.

Music Videos: The Visual Symphony

Music videos are the perfect union of audio and visual storytelling and have revolutionized how people consume music. These clips are not merely promotional tools but are art forms. At its peak, music videos were cultural events. Nobody took advantage of the medium better than Madonna. Think of her "Justify My Love" video—a short film that was so subversive that MTV banned it. (Ever the businesswoman, The Material Girl decided to make the controversial video available commercially as a video single, marking the first time a musician released a single in this format in the United States.)

Daniel Siegel Alonso fast forwards to the current age of social media, with channels like YouTube and TikTok breathing new life into the music video. Artists can now connect directly with their audience, bypassing cautious publicists and conservative record company executives. This democratization has led to a surge in creativity. Think about Childish Gambino's cinematic "This is America." The music video sparked widespread discussion and analysis with its in-your-face imagery and complex themes. It wasn't just a song but a statement.

Social Media: The Viral Soundtrack

Music is the magical ingredient in social media that can instantly catapult content into viral fame. Platforms like TikTok have turned short, catchy music clips into a global phenomenon. A 15-second snippet can lead to myriad dance challenges, lip-sync clips, and memes, propelling relatively obscure singers to stardom overnight.

Daniel Siegel Alonso uses Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road" as a key example. With its genre-blending sound, the song became a sensation largely thanks to TikTok. Users created countless videos featuring the song, and the track's infectious energy spread like wildfire. The result was a record-breaking run on the Billboard Hot 100—and a Grammy win!

Even Instagram's Stories and Reels leverage songs to enrich their user experience. Whether it's a tearjerker ballad emphasizing heartfelt memories or an aggressive track fueling a workout video, music layers in emotional content that words and images can't achieve.

The Emotional Manipulator

Music's influence in media lies in its power to manipulate emotions—the invisible puppeteer tugs at the heartstrings, stirring nostalgia, joy, sadness, or excitement. Filmmakers and content creators understand this well. Imagine watching a horror flick without a creepy soundtrack.

In television shows, music often acts as an additional character on screen. Netflix's "Stranger Things" and HBO's "Game of Thrones" have iconic soundtracks that are instantly recognizable and have even revitalized musicians' careers (think Kate Bush and her iconic song "Running Up That Hill"). These scores aren't just background fodder; they are crucial to storytelling by creating tension and enhancing dramatic moments.

Cultural Shaper

Beyond its emotional impact, music in media also serves as a cultural shaper. It impacts everything from fashion to language and even social movements. Consider MTV's influence and reach at its height in the 1980s and 1990s. The cable channel didn't just air music videos; it created superstars and defined an era, influencing everything from hairdos to political views.

While MTV may not be the behemoth it once was, social media platforms continue the tradition today. Viral music trends can spark global discussions. For instance, the Black Lives Matter movement saw numerous musicians penning powerful anthems that became rallying cries, shared widely on social media. In this context, music transcends entertainment; it's a vehicle for evolution.

Conclusion

In the grand tapestry of media, Daniel Siegel Alonso asserts that music is the thread that weaves everything together. It turns commercials into cultural icons, music videos into visual feasts, and social media content into viral sensations. Its power to elicit emotion, contribute to culture, and tell unique stories makes it an invaluable tool for creators.

If there are stories to tell and products to sell, music will remain at the heart of media, striking the right chords and leaving an unforgettable mark on our collective psyche. Ultimately, it's not just about the notes and melodies; it's about the feelings and memories they arouse, making music the unsung hero in the ever-changing media landscape.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

The exchange reveals the extent of the breach that occurred last December as federal authorities investigate the recent data leak.

Coinbase has disclosed that the personal data of 69,461 users was compromised during the breach in December 2024, according to documentation filed with the Maine Attorney General’s Office.

The disclosure comes after Coinbase announced last week that a group of hackers had demanded a $20 million ransom, threatening to publish the stolen data on the dark web. The attackers allegedly bribed overseas customer service agents to extract information from the company’s systems.

Coinbase had previously stated that the breach affected less than 1% of its user base, compromising KYC (Know Your Customer) data such as names, addresses, and email addresses. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company clarified that passwords, private keys, and user funds were not affected.

Following the reports, the SEC has reportedly opened an official investigation to verify whether Coinbase may have inflated user metrics ahead of its 2021 IPO. Separately, the Department of Justice is investigating the breach at Coinbase’s request, according to CEO Brian Armstrong.

Meanwhile, Coinbase has faced criticism for its delayed response to the data breach. Michael Arrington, founder of TechCrunch, stated that the stolen data could cause irreparable harm. In a post on X, Arrington wrote:

“The human cost, denominated in misery, is much larger than the $400m or so they think it will actually cost the company to reimburse people. The consequences to companies who do not adequately protect their customer information should include, without limitation, prison time for executives.”

Coinbase estimates the incident could cost between $180 million and $400 million in remediation expenses and customer reimbursements.

Arrington also condemned KYC laws as ineffective and dangerous, calling on both regulators and companies to better protect user data:

“Combining these KYC laws with corporate profit maximization and lax laws on penalties for hacks like these means these issues will continue to happen. Both governments and corporations need to step up to stop this. As I said, the cost can only be measured in human suffering.”

The post Coinbase: 69,461 users affected by December 2024 data breach appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

Good morning.

It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.  

March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?

PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.

First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Bitcoin adoption will come through businesses: neither governments nor banks will lead the revolution.

In recent years, it’s undeniable that Bitcoin has ceased to be just a radical idea born from the minds of cypherpunks. It is now recognized across the board as a global asset, discussed in the upper echelons of finance, accepted even on Wall Street, purchased by banking groups and included as a “strategic reserve” by some nations.

However, the general perception that hovers today regarding Bitcoin’s diffusion is still that of minimal adoption, almost insignificant. Bitcoin exists, certainly, but in fact it is not being used. It is rarely possible to pay in satoshis in commercial establishments. Demand is still extremely low.

Furthermore, the debate on Bitcoin is still practically absent: excluding some local events, some niche media outlets or some timid discussion, today Bitcoin is in fact excluded from general interest. The level of understanding and knowledge of the phenomenon is certainly still very low.

Yet, Bitcoin represents an unprecedented technological improvement, capable of solving many problems inherent in the fiat system in which we live. What could facilitate its diffusion?

Bitcoin becomes familiar when businesses adopt it

When talking about Bitcoin adoption, many look to States. They imagine governments that legislate or accumulate Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve,” or banks perceived as forward-thinking that would lead technological change, opening up to innovation. But the reality is different: bureaucracy, political constraints, and fear of losing control inherently prevent States and central banks from being pioneers.

What really drives Bitcoin adoption are not States, but businesses. It is the forward-looking entrepreneurs, innovative startups and – eventually – even large multinational companies that decide to integrate Bitcoin into their operating systems that drive adoption. Indeed, the business world has always played a key role in the adoption of new technologies. This was the case, for example, with the internet, e-commerce, mobile telephony, and the cloud. It will also be the case with Bitcoin.

Unlike a State, when a company adopts Bitcoin, it does so for concrete reasons: efficiency, savings, protection, access to new markets, independence from traditional banking circuits, or bureaucratic streamlining. It is a rational choice, not an ideological one, dictated by the intent to improve one’s competitiveness against the competition to survive in the market.

What is currently missing to facilitate adoption is, in all likelihood, a significant number of businesses that have decided to integrate Bitcoin into their company systems.

Bitcoin becomes “normal” when it is integrated into the operational flow of businesses. Holding and framing bitcoin on the balance sheet, paying an invoice, paying salaries to employees in satoshis, making value transfers globally thanks to the blockchain, allowing customers to pay via Lightning Network… when all this becomes possible with the same simplicity with which we use the euro or the dollar, Bitcoin stops being alternative and becomes the standard.

Businesses are not just users. They are adoption multipliers. When a company chooses Bitcoin, it is automatically proposing it to customers, employees, suppliers, and institutional stakeholders. Each business adoption equals tens, hundreds, or thousands of new eyes on Bitcoin.

People, after all, trust what they see every day: if your trusted restaurant accepts bitcoin, or if your favorite e-commerce platform uses it to receive international payments, or if your colleague receives it as a salary, then Bitcoin no longer appears to be a mysterious object. It finally begins to be perceived as a real, useful, and functioning tool.

The integration of a technology in companies helps make it understandable, accessible, and legitimate in the eyes of the public. This is how distrust is overcome: by making Bitcoin visible in daily life.

Bitcoin and businesses today

A River Financial report estimates that as of May 2025, only 5% of bitcoin is currently owned by private businesses. A still very small number.

According to research by River, in May 2025 businesses hold just over a million btc (about 5% of available monetary units). More than two-thirds of bitcoin (68.2%) are in the hands of private individuals.

To promote Bitcoin adoption, it is necessary today to support businesses in integrating this standard, leveraging all its enormous opportunities. Among others, this technology allows for fast, economical, and global payments. It eliminates intermediaries, increases transparency and security in value transfers. It removes bureaucratic frictions and allows opening up to a new global market.

Every sector can benefit from Bitcoin: e-commerce, tourism, industry, restaurants, professional services, or any other business. Bitcoin revolutionizes the concept of money, and money is a transversal working tool.

We are still at the beginning, but several signals are encouraging. According to a study by Bitwise and reported by Atlas21, in the first quarter of 2025, a growing number of US companies (+16.11% compared to the previous one) are including Bitcoin in their balance sheets, not just as a financial bet, but as a long-term strategy to protect their assets and access a decentralized monetary system to transfer value worldwide without resorting to financial intermediaries.

Who is driving the change?

Echoing the words of Roy Sheinfeld, CEO of Breez, the true potential of Bitcoin will be unleashed first and foremost from the work of developers, the true architects in designing and refining tools that are increasingly simple and intuitive to use for anyone, regardless of level of expertise. It is the developers – Roy rightly argued – who will enable us to “conquer the world.”

But probably that’s not enough: the next step is to make Bitcoin a globally accepted technological standard, changing its perception towards the general public. And this is where businesses come into play.

Guided by the market, technological innovation, and the desire to meet user demands, entrepreneurs today represent the fulcrum to accelerate the monetary transition from the current fiat system towards the Bitcoin standard. It is entrepreneurs who transform innovations from opportunities for a few to a reality shared by many.

The adoption of Bitcoin will therefore not arise from a sudden event, nor from the exclusive fruit of enthusiasts’ enthusiasm or from arbitrary political choices decreed by States or regulators.

The future of Bitcoin is built in the places where value is created every day: in companies, in their systems, and in their strategic decisions.

“If we conquer developers, we conquer the world. If we conquer businesses, we conquer adoption.”

The post The key to Bitcoin adoption is businesses appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

Definition: when every single person in the chain responsible for shipping a product looks at objectively horrendous design decisions and goes: yup, this looks good to me, release this. Designers, developers, product managers, testers, quality assurance... everyone.

I nominate Peugeot as the first example in this category.

Continue reading at https://grumpy.website/1665

https://stacker.news/items/988044

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

The newly proposed RESTRICT ACT - is being advertised as a TikTok Ban, but is much broader than that, carries a $1M Fine and up to 20 years in prison️! It is unconstitutional and would create massive legal restrictions on the open source movement and free speech throughout the internet.

The Bill was proposed by: Senator Warner, Senator Thune, Senator Baldwin, Senator Fischer, Senator Manchin, Senator Moran, Senator Bennet, Senator Sullivan, Senator Gillibrand, Senator Collins, Senator Heinrich, and Senator Romney. It has broad support across Senators of both parties.

Corrupt politicians will not protect us. They are part of the problem. We must build, support, and learn how to use censorship resistant tools in order to defend our natural rights.

The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Senators Warner and Thune, aims to block or disrupt transactions and financial holdings involving foreign adversaries that pose risks to national security. Although the primary targets of this legislation are companies like Tik-Tok, the language of the bill could potentially be used to block or disrupt cryptocurrency transactions and, in extreme cases, block Americans’ access to open source tools or protocols like Bitcoin.

The Act creates a redundant regime paralleling OFAC without clear justification, it significantly limits the ability for injured parties to challenge actions raising due process concerns, and unlike OFAC it lacks any carve-out for protected speech. COINCENTER ON THE RESTRICT ACT

Full Text of Bill

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

This talks highlights tools for product management, UX design, web development, and content creation to embed accessibility.

Organizations need scalability and consistency in their accessibility work, aligning people, policies, and processes to integrate it across roles. This session highlights tools for product management, UX design, web development, and content creation to embed accessibility. We will explore inclusive personas, design artifacts, design systems, and content strategies to support developers and creators, with real-world examples.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M2cMLDU4u4

https://stacker.news/items/988041

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Governor Abbott will have to decide whether to sign the bill establishing a bitcoin reserve for the state.

Texas could become the third U.S. state to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, following the approval of Senate Bill 21 by the state House, with 101 votes in favor and 42 against.

Lee Bratcher, founder and president of the Texas Blockchain Council, expressed confidence that Governor Greg Abbott will sign the legislative measure. In an interview with The Block, Bratcher said:

“I’ve talked to the governor about this personally, and I think he wants to see Texas lead in this way.”

The bill is expected to reach the governor’s desk within a week or two, according to Bratcher’s projections. If signed, Texas would follow in the footsteps of New Hampshire and Arizona in creating a state-held bitcoin reserve.

Despite Texas ranking as the world’s eighth-largest economy — ahead of many nations — the initial approach to the reserve will be cautious. Bratcher estimates the starting investment will be in the “tens of millions of dollars,” an amount he describes as “modest” for an economy the size of Texas. The responsibility for operational decisions would fall to the state comptroller, who acts as an executive accountant in charge of managing and investing public funds.

“My sense is that it will be in the tens of millions of dollars, which, while it sounds significant, is a very modest amount, for a state the size of Texas.” explained the president of the Texas Blockchain Council.

The road to approval

According to Bratcher, the idea of creating a state bitcoin reserve dates back to 2022 and represents the culmination of years of work by the Texas Blockchain Council. The organization has worked closely with lawmakers who shared the vision of seeing the state accumulate the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Additionally, Texas has long been home to numerous bitcoin mining companies.

The post Texas one step away from a bitcoin reserve: only the governor’s signature is missing appeared first on Atlas21.

@ f6488c62:c929299d

คุณเคยจินตนาการถึงอนาคตที่ AI มีความฉลาดเทียบเท่ามนุษย์หรือไม่? นี่คือสิ่งที่ Sam Altman ซีอีโอของ OpenAI และทีมพันธมิตรอย่าง SoftBank, Oracle และ MGX กำลังผลักดันผ่าน โครงการ Stargate! โครงการนี้ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องเทคโนโลยี แต่เป็นก้าวกระโดดครั้งใหญ่ของมนุษยชาติ! Stargate คืออะไร? Stargate เป็นโปรเจกต์สร้าง ศูนย์ข้อมูล AI ขนาดยักษ์ที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในประวัติศาสตร์ ด้วยเงินลงทุนเริ่มต้น 100,000 ล้านดอลลาร์ และอาจสูงถึง 500,000 ล้านดอลลาร์ ภายในปี 2029! เป้าหมายคือการพัฒนา Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) หรือ AI ที่ฉลาดเทียบเท่ามนุษย์ เพื่อให้สหรัฐฯ ครองความเป็นผู้นำด้าน AI และแข่งขันกับคู่แข่งอย่างจีน โครงการนี้เริ่มต้นที่เมือง Abilene รัฐเท็กซัส โดยจะสร้างศูนย์ข้อมูล 10 แห่ง และขยายไปยังญี่ปุ่น สหราชอาณาจักร และสหรัฐอาหรับเอมิเรตส์ ทำไม Stargate ถึงสำคัญ?
นวัตกรรมเปลี่ยนโลก: AI จาก Stargate จะช่วยพัฒนาวัคซีน mRNA รักษามะเร็งได้ใน 48 ชั่วโมง และยกระดับอุตสาหกรรมต่าง ๆ เช่น การแพทย์และความมั่นคงแห่งชาติ

สร้างงาน: คาดว่าจะสร้างงานกว่า 100,000 ตำแหน่ง ในสหรัฐฯ

พลังงานมหาศาล: ศูนย์ข้อมูลอาจใช้พลังงานถึง 1.2 กิกะวัตต์ เทียบเท่ากับเมืองขนาดใหญ่!

ใครอยู่เบื้องหลัง? Sam Altman ร่วมมือกับ Masayoshi Son จาก SoftBank และได้รับการสนับสนุนจาก Donald Trump ซึ่งผลักดันนโยบายให้ Stargate เป็นจริง การก่อสร้างดำเนินการโดย Oracle และพันธมิตรด้านพลังงานอย่าง Crusoe Energy Systems ความท้าทาย? ถึงจะยิ่งใหญ่ แต่ Stargate ก็เจออุปสรรค ทั้งปัญหาการระดมทุน ความกังวลเรื่องภาษีนำเข้าชิป และการแข่งขันจากคู่แข่งอย่าง DeepSeek ที่ใช้โครงสร้างพื้นฐานน้อยกว่า แถม Elon Musk ยังออกมาวิจารณ์ว่าโครงการนี้อาจ “ไม่สมจริง” แต่ Altman มั่นใจและเชิญ Musk ไปดูไซต์งานที่เท็กซัสเลยทีเดียว! อนาคตของ Stargate ศูนย์ข้อมูลแห่งแรกจะเริ่มใช้งานในปี 2026 และอาจเปลี่ยนโฉมวงการ AI ไปตลอดกาล นี่คือก้าวสำคัญสู่ยุคใหม่ของเทคโนโลยีที่อาจเปลี่ยนวิถีชีวิตของเรา! และไม่ใช่ประตูดวงดาวแบบในหนังนะ! ถึงชื่อ Stargate จะได้แรงบันดาลใจจากภาพยนตร์ sci-fi อันโด่งดัง แต่โครงการนี้ไม่ได้พาเราไปยังดวงดาวอื่น มันคือการเปิดประตูสู่โลกแห่ง AI ที่ทรงพลัง และอาจเปลี่ยนอนาคตของมนุษยชาติไปเลย! และไม่เหมือน universechain ของ star ของผมนะครับ

Stargate #AI #SamAltman #OpenAI #อนาคตของเทคโนโลยี

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Bitcoin surpasses gold in the United States: 50 million holders and a dominant role in the global market.

According to a new report by River, for the first time in history, the number of Americans owning bitcoin has surpassed that of gold holders. The analysis reveals that approximately 50 million U.S. citizens currently own the cryptocurrency, while gold owners number 37 million. In fact, 14.3% of Americans own bitcoin, the highest percentage of holders worldwide.

Source: River

The report highlights that 40% of all Bitcoin-focused companies are based in the United States, consolidating America’s dominant position in the sector. Additionally, 40.5% of Bitcoin holders are men aged 31 to 35, followed by 35.9% of men aged 41 to 45. In contrast, only 13.4% of holders are women.

Source: River

Notably, U.S. companies hold 94.8% of all bitcoins owned by publicly traded companies worldwide. According to the report, recent regulatory changes in the U.S. have made the asset more accessible through financial products such as spot ETFs.

The document also shows that American investors increasingly view the cryptocurrency as protection against fiscal instability and inflation, appreciating its limited supply and decentralized governance model.

For River, Bitcoin offers significant practical advantages over gold in the modern digital era. Its ease of custody, cross-border transfer, and liquidity make the cryptocurrency an attractive option for both individual and institutional investors, the report suggests.

The post USA: 50 million Americans own bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ c1d77557:bf04ec8b

O 567br é uma plataforma de entretenimento online que tem se destacado pela sua inovação, variedade de jogos e foco na experiência do jogador. Com uma interface amigável e recursos de alta qualidade, a plataforma oferece uma jornada divertida e segura para os seus usuários. Neste artigo, vamos explorar os principais aspectos do 567br, incluindo a introdução da plataforma, os jogos que ela oferece e como a experiência do jogador é aprimorada em cada detalhe.

O 567br foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de proporcionar aos jogadores uma experiência imersiva e prazerosa. Sua interface é simples, intuitiva e de fácil navegação, permitindo que os usuários encontrem rapidamente seus jogos favoritos. A plataforma também é otimizada para dispositivos móveis, o que significa que os jogadores podem acessar seus jogos em qualquer lugar e a qualquer momento, seja no computador ou no smartphone.

Além disso, o 567brse preocupa com a segurança de seus usuários, implementando tecnologias de criptografia de ponta para garantir que todos os dados pessoais e financeiros estejam protegidos. A plataforma também oferece suporte ao cliente de alta qualidade, disponível 24/7, para resolver quaisquer dúvidas ou problemas que possam surgir durante a experiência de jogo.

Jogos Empolgantes e Variedade para Todos os Gostos No 567br, a diversidade de jogos é um dos pontos fortes da plataforma. Desde jogos de mesa e cartas até opções de entretenimento mais dinâmicas e inovadoras, há algo para todos os gostos e preferências. Os jogos disponíveis são desenvolvidos por alguns dos melhores fornecedores de conteúdo da indústria, garantindo gráficos de alta qualidade, jogabilidade fluida e mecânicas envolventes.

Os jogadores podem escolher entre diferentes categorias, como:

Jogos de Mesa: Para quem gosta de uma experiência mais estratégica e de tomada de decisões, os jogos de mesa são uma excelente opção. São oferecidas diversas variantes de jogos populares, como pôquer, blackjack, roleta, entre outros.

Jogos de Ação e Aventura: Para os que buscam adrenalina e emoção, a plataforma oferece uma seleção de jogos de ação e aventura com temas envolventes e gráficos impressionantes. Esses jogos garantem uma experiência de jogo emocionante e desafiadora.

Jogos de Arcade: Se você está em busca de algo mais descontraído e divertido, os jogos de arcade são uma excelente escolha. Eles são rápidos, fáceis de entender e proporcionam diversão instantânea.

A plataforma está sempre atualizando seu portfólio de jogos para garantir que os jogadores tenham acesso às últimas novidades e inovações do mundo do entretenimento online.

A Experiência do Jogador: Personalização e Interatividade O 567br não se limita a oferecer apenas uma plataforma de jogos, mas também busca criar uma experiência personalizada e interativa para cada jogador. A plataforma possui funcionalidades que permitem que os usuários ajustem sua experiência de jogo de acordo com suas preferências individuais.

A personalização da interface é um exemplo claro disso. O jogador pode escolher o tema e a disposição dos elementos na tela, criando um ambiente que seja confortável e agradável de usar. Além disso, o 567br oferece recursos interativos, como chats ao vivo, onde os jogadores podem interagir com outros usuários e até mesmo com os dealers, proporcionando uma sensação de comunidade.

Outro aspecto importante é a possibilidade de acompanhar o desempenho e os resultados de jogo. A plataforma oferece relatórios detalhados, permitindo que os jogadores monitorem seu progresso, analisem suas vitórias e perdas, e façam ajustes em sua estratégia de jogo.

Promoções e Benefícios para os Jogadores O 567br também oferece uma série de promoções e benefícios que tornam a experiência de jogo ainda mais atrativa. Novos jogadores podem aproveitar bônus de boas-vindas e outras ofertas especiais, enquanto jogadores regulares podem se beneficiar de programas de fidelidade e promoções exclusivas.

Essas ofertas ajudam a aumentar a diversão e proporcionam mais oportunidades para que os jogadores explorem novos jogos e tenham uma experiência ainda mais rica. Além disso, o sistema de recompensas é transparente e justo, garantindo que todos os jogadores tenham as mesmas oportunidades de aproveitar os benefícios.

Conclusão: Uma Plataforma Completa para Todos os Gostos Com sua interface intuitiva, variedade de jogos e foco na experiência do jogador, o 567br se consolida como uma plataforma de entretenimento online de alta qualidade. Seja para quem busca jogos estratégicos, ação intensa ou diversão casual, o 567br tem algo para todos.

A segurança, o suporte ao cliente e a personalização da experiência de jogo tornam o 567br uma opção atraente para jogadores que buscam mais do que apenas uma plataforma de jogos – buscam uma jornada de entretenimento envolvente e segura. Se você está procurando por uma experiência completa e agradável, o 567br é, sem dúvida, uma excelente escolha.

@ c1d77557:bf04ec8b

O P11Bet é uma plataforma inovadora que chega para oferecer uma experiência de jogo única, reunindo uma variedade de opções para os entusiastas de diferentes tipos de entretenimento online. Com uma interface moderna e fácil de usar, ela se destaca por proporcionar uma jornada divertida e segura para os jogadores, com um foco especial na qualidade da experiência e no atendimento às necessidades do público.

Uma Plataforma Completa e Acessível Ao acessar o P11Bet, os usuários encontram uma plataforma intuitiva, que facilita a navegação e oferece uma variedade de recursos para tornar o jogo mais agradável. A estrutura do site é otimizada para fornecer uma experiência fluida, seja no desktop ou em dispositivos móveis. Além disso, a plataforma se preocupa em manter um ambiente seguro, garantindo a proteção dos dados dos jogadores e permitindo que se concentrem na diversão.

A plataforma é projetada para todos os tipos de jogadores, desde os iniciantes até os mais experientes. A simplicidade de uso é uma das grandes vantagens, permitindo que qualquer pessoa possa se registrar e começar a jogar sem dificuldades. Além disso, a p11betoferece suporte ao cliente em português, o que facilita a comunicação e garante um atendimento de alta qualidade para os usuários brasileiros.

Diversidade de Jogos para Todos os Gostos O P11Bet se destaca pela vasta gama de opções de jogos que oferece aos seus usuários. A plataforma abriga uma seleção diversificada que vai desde jogos clássicos até as opções mais modernas, atendendo a todos os estilos e preferências. Entre as opções mais procuradas estão jogos de mesa, apostas esportivas, slots, e outras modalidades que garantem horas de entretenimento.

Um dos principais atrativos do P11Bet são os jogos de habilidade e de sorte, que exigem tanto estratégia quanto um pouco de sorte. As opções variam desde os mais simples aos mais complexos, oferecendo algo para todos os gostos. Os jogadores podem se aventurar em diversas modalidades, testando suas habilidades em jogos que vão de roletas e blackjack a versões mais inovadoras e dinâmicas.

Para aqueles que preferem algo mais emocionante e competitivo, as apostas esportivas são uma das maiores atrações. O P11Bet oferece uma ampla variedade de eventos esportivos ao vivo para apostar, com odds atrativas e uma plataforma que permite realizar apostas de forma rápida e eficiente. Seja em esportes populares como futebol, basquete ou até mesmo esportes menos tradicionais, há sempre algo para os apostadores mais exigentes.

A Experiência do Jogador: Diversão e Segurança O P11Bet não apenas se preocupa com a diversidade de jogos, mas também com a experiência do jogador. A plataforma foi desenvolvida para garantir que os jogadores possam desfrutar de seus jogos favoritos com a maior segurança e conforto possível. Além de um design intuitivo, a plataforma oferece diversas opções de pagamento, incluindo métodos populares no Brasil, para facilitar depósitos e retiradas. Isso garante que o processo de transações seja simples, rápido e seguro.

Outro ponto positivo do P11Bet é a experiência imersiva que ele oferece aos jogadores. A plataforma está sempre atualizada com novas funcionalidades, com promoções atraentes e bônus especiais que aumentam ainda mais a diversão. A interação com outros jogadores também é um diferencial, com espaços que permitem competir, conversar e trocar experiências com pessoas de todo o mundo.

Além disso, o suporte ao cliente da P11Bet é um dos mais elogiados pelos usuários. A equipe está sempre disponível para resolver dúvidas e fornecer assistência de maneira eficaz e amigável. Isso garante que os jogadores tenham sempre uma experiência tranquila, sem se preocupar com questões técnicas ou problemas relacionados à plataforma.

Conclusão Em resumo, o P11Bet é uma excelente escolha para quem busca uma plataforma completa e de qualidade para se divertir e desafiar suas habilidades. Com uma grande variedade de jogos, uma interface de fácil navegação e um suporte excepcional, ele garante que cada momento na plataforma seja único e prazeroso. Para quem deseja se aventurar no mundo dos jogos online, o P11Bet é uma opção que combina segurança, inovação e diversão.

@ c1d77557:bf04ec8b

Se você está em busca de uma experiência de jogo dinâmica e diversificada, o 59h é a plataforma que você precisa conhecer. Com um foco claro na satisfação dos jogadores, ela oferece uma ampla variedade de opções de entretenimento, além de uma interface amigável e segura. Neste artigo, vamos explorar a plataforma 59h, destacando suas principais funcionalidades, jogos emocionantes e a experiência do usuário.

O Que é a Plataforma 59h? O 59h é uma plataforma inovadora que oferece uma vasta gama de jogos e experiências digitais para os entusiastas do entretenimento online. A plataforma se destaca pela sua interface intuitiva, que permite aos jogadores navegar com facilidade entre as diferentes categorias de jogos. Ela é ideal para quem busca uma experiência divertida e acessível, sem complicações.

Desde o momento em que você acessa o 59h, fica evidente o compromisso com a qualidade. A plataforma é projetada para ser acessível em diversos dispositivos, seja no seu computador, tablet ou smartphone. Isso garante que os jogadores possam aproveitar seus jogos favoritos a qualquer momento e em qualquer lugar, com a mesma qualidade e desempenho.

Uma Grande Variedade de Jogos para Todos os Gostos O 59h se destaca por sua impressionante variedade de jogos. Independentemente do tipo de jogo que você prefere, certamente encontrará algo que se adapte ao seu estilo. A plataforma oferece desde jogos de habilidade, até opções mais relaxantes e divertidas para aqueles que buscam algo mais descontraído.

Entre as opções mais populares, destacam-se os jogos de mesa, onde os jogadores podem testar suas habilidades em jogos como pôquer, blackjack e outros. Para quem prefere algo mais voltado para a sorte, o 59h também oferece jogos com elementos de sorte que podem garantir grandes recompensas.

Além disso, a plataforma está sempre atualizando seu portfólio de jogos, trazendo novidades para os jogadores. Isso significa que você nunca ficará entediado, já que sempre haverá algo novo e emocionante para experimentar.

A Experiência do Jogador no 59h Uma das maiores qualidades da plataforma 59h é sua atenção à experiência do usuário. Desde o processo de registro até a escolha de um jogo, tudo foi pensado para garantir uma navegação tranquila e sem estresse.

A plataforma é completamente segura, oferecendo métodos de pagamento rápidos e confiáveis. Isso significa que os jogadores podem depositar e retirar seus fundos com confiança, sem se preocupar com a segurança de suas informações pessoais. Além disso, o suporte ao cliente está sempre disponível para ajudar em caso de dúvidas ou problemas, garantindo que sua experiência seja o mais fluida possível.

Outro ponto que merece destaque é a comunidade de jogadores. A interação com outros jogadores é uma parte importante da plataforma, permitindo que você compartilhe dicas, participe de torneios e crie amizades. A plataforma 59h se esforça para criar um ambiente amigável e inclusivo, onde todos podem se divertir e aprender uns com os outros.

Acessibilidade e Facilidade de Uso O 59h não é apenas sobre a diversidade de jogos; também se trata de tornar o acesso o mais simples possível. A plataforma oferece um design responsivo, que se adapta perfeitamente a qualquer tipo de dispositivo. Isso significa que você pode jogar no computador, smartphone ou tablet com a mesma facilidade.

O processo de cadastro é simples e rápido, permitindo que você comece a jogar em questão de minutos. Além disso, a plataforma oferece uma série de recursos adicionais, como promoções e bônus exclusivos, que tornam a experiência ainda mais empolgante.

Conclusão O 59h se posiciona como uma plataforma de entretenimento online completa, oferecendo uma vasta gama de jogos, uma experiência de usuário de alta qualidade e um ambiente seguro e amigável para jogadores de todos os níveis. Se você procura uma plataforma confiável, diversificada e divertida, o 59h é a escolha ideal. Não importa se você é um iniciante ou um jogador experiente, há sempre algo novo para descobrir e aproveitar no 59h.

@ dfa02707:41ca50e3

Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.

• This release introduces Payjoin v2 functionality to Bitcoin wallets on Cake, along with several UI/UX improvements and bug fixes.
• The Payjoin v2 protocol enables asynchronous, serverless coordination between sender and receiver, removing the need to be online simultaneously or maintain a server. This simplifies privacy-focused transactions for regular users.

"I cannot speak highly enough of how amazing it has been to work with @bitgould and Jaad from the@payjoindevkit team, they're doing incredible work. None of this would be possible without them and their tireless efforts. PDK made it so much easier to ship Payjoin v2 than it would have been otherwise, and I can't wait to see other wallets jump in and give back to PDK as they implement it like we did," said Seth For Privacy, VP at Cake Wallet.

How to started with Payjoin in Cake Wallet:

1. Open the app menu sidebar and click Privacy.
2. Toggle the Use Payjoin option.
3. Now on your receive screen you'll see an option to copy a Payjoin URL

• Bull Bitcoin Wallet v0.4.0 introduced Payjoin v2 support in late December 2024. However, the current implementations are not interoperable at the moment, an issue that should be addressed in the next release of the Bull Bitcoin Wallet.

• Cake Wallet was one of the first wallets to introduce Silent Payments back in May 2024. However, users may encounter sync issues while using this feature at present, which will be resolved in the next release of Cake Wallet.

What's new

• Payjoin v2 implementation.
• Wallet group improvements: Enhanced management of multiple wallets.
• Various bug fixes: improving overall stability and user experience.
• Monero (XMR) enhancements.

Learn more about using, implementing, and understanding BIP 77: Payjoin Version 2 using the payjoin crate in Payjoin Dev Kit here.

Announcement
Blog Post / Archive
GitHub Repo

@ 348e7eb2:3b0b9790

Nostr-Konto erstellen - funktioniert mit Hex

Nostr-Konto erstellen

Was der Button macht

Der folgende Code fügt einen Button hinzu, der per Klick einen Nostr-Anmeldedialog öffnet. Alle Schritte sind im Code selbst ausführlich kommentiert.

```html

Nostr-Konto erstellen

```

Erläuterungen:

• Dynamisches Nachladen: Das Script modal.js wird nur bei Klick nachgeladen, um Fehlermeldungen beim Initial-Load zu vermeiden.

• Parameter im Überblick:

• baseUrl: Quelle für API und Assets.

• an: App-Name für den Modal-Header.
• aa: Farbakzent (Foerbico-Farbe als Hex).
• al: Sprache des Interfaces.
• am: Licht- oder Dunkelmodus.
• afb/asb: Bunker-Modi für erhöhten Datenschutz.
• aan/aac: Steuerung der Rückgabe privater Schlüssel.
• arr/awr: Primal Relay als Lese- und Schreib-Relay.

• Callbacks:

• onComplete: Schließt das Modal, zeigt eine Bestätigung und bietet die Weiterleitung zu Primal an.

• onCancel: Schließt das Modal und protokolliert den Abbruch.

Damit ist der gesamte Code sichtbar, kommentiert und erklärt.

@ 06830f6c:34da40c5

The evolution of development environments is incredibly rich and complex and reflects a continuous drive towards greater efficiency, consistency, isolation, and collaboration. It's a story of abstracting away complexity and standardizing workflows.

Phase 1: The Bare Metal & Manual Era (Early 1970s - Late 1990s)

1. Direct OS Interaction / Bare Metal Development:

   • Description: Developers worked directly on the operating system's command line or a basic text editor. Installation of compilers, interpreters, and libraries was a manual, often arcane process involving downloading archives, compiling from source, and setting environment variables. "Configuration drift" (differences between developer machines) was the norm.
   • Tools: Text editors (Vi, Emacs), command-line compilers (GCC), Makefiles.
   • Challenges: Extremely high setup time, dependency hell, "works on my machine" syndrome, difficult onboarding for new developers, lack of reproducibility. Version control was primitive (e.g., RCS, SCCS).

2. Integrated Development Environments (IDEs) - Initial Emergence:

   • Description: Early IDEs (like Turbo Pascal, Microsoft Visual Basic) began to integrate editors, compilers, debuggers, and sometimes GUI builders into a single application. This was a massive leap in developer convenience.
   • Tools: Turbo Pascal, Visual Basic, early Visual Studio versions.
   • Advancement: Improved developer productivity, streamlined common tasks. Still relied on local system dependencies.

Phase 2: Towards Dependency Management & Local Reproducibility (Late 1990s - Mid-2000s)

1. Basic Build Tools & Dependency Resolvers (Pre-Package Managers):

   • Description: As projects grew, manual dependency tracking became impossible. Tools like Ant (Java) and early versions of autoconf/make for C/C++ helped automate the compilation and linking process, managing some dependencies.
   • Tools: Apache Ant, GNU Autotools.
   • Advancement: Automated build processes, rudimentary dependency linking. Still not comprehensive environment management.

2. Language-Specific Package Managers:

   • Description: A significant leap was the emergence of language-specific package managers that could fetch, install, and manage libraries and frameworks declared in a project's manifest file. Examples include Maven (Java), npm (Node.js), pip (Python), RubyGems (Ruby), Composer (PHP).
   • Tools: Maven, npm, pip, RubyGems, Composer.
   • Advancement: Dramatically simplified dependency resolution, improved intra-project reproducibility.
   • Limitation: Managed language-level dependencies, but not system-level dependencies or the underlying OS environment. Conflicts between projects on the same machine (e.g., Project A needs Python 2.7, Project B needs Python 3.9) were common.

Phase 3: Environment Isolation & Portability (Mid-2000s - Early 2010s)

1. Virtual Machines (VMs) for Development:

   • Description: To address the "it works on my machine" problem stemming from OS-level and system-level differences, developers started using VMs. Tools like VMware Workstation, VirtualBox, and later Vagrant (which automated VM provisioning) allowed developers to encapsulate an entire OS and its dependencies for a project.
   • Tools: VMware, VirtualBox, Vagrant.
   • Advancement: Achieved strong isolation and environment reproducibility (a true "single environment" for a project).
   • Limitations: Resource-heavy (each VM consumed significant CPU, RAM, disk space), slow to provision and boot, difficult to share large VM images.

2. Early Automation & Provisioning Tools:

   • Description: Alongside VMs, configuration management tools started being used to automate environment setup within VMs or on servers. This helped define environments as code, making them more consistent.
   • Tools: Chef, Puppet, Ansible.
   • Advancement: Automated provisioning, leading to more consistent environments, often used in conjunction with VMs.

Phase 4: The Container Revolution & Orchestration (Early 2010s - Present)

1. Containerization (Docker):

   • Description: Docker popularized Linux Containers (LXC), offering a lightweight, portable, and efficient alternative to VMs. Containers package an application and all its dependencies into a self-contained unit that shares the host OS kernel. This drastically reduced resource overhead and startup times compared to VMs.
   • Tools: Docker.
   • Advancement: Unprecedented consistency from development to production (Dev/Prod Parity), rapid provisioning, highly efficient resource use. Became the de-facto standard for packaging applications.

2. Container Orchestration:

   • Description: As microservices and container adoption grew, managing hundreds or thousands of containers became a new challenge. Orchestration platforms automated the deployment, scaling, healing, and networking of containers across clusters of machines.
   • Tools: Kubernetes, Docker Swarm, Apache Mesos.
   • Advancement: Enabled scalable, resilient, and complex distributed systems development and deployment. The "environment" started encompassing the entire cluster.

Phase 5: Cloud-Native, Serverless & Intelligent Environments (Present - Future)

1. Cloud-Native Development:

   • Description: Leveraging cloud services (managed databases, message queues, serverless functions) directly within the development workflow. Developers focus on application logic, offloading infrastructure management to cloud providers. Containers become a key deployment unit in this paradigm.
   • Tools: AWS Lambda, Azure Functions, Google Cloud Run, cloud-managed databases.
   • Advancement: Reduced operational overhead, increased focus on business logic, highly scalable deployments.

2. Remote Development & Cloud-Based IDEs:

   • Description: The full development environment (editor, terminal, debugger, code) can now reside in the cloud, accessed via a thin client or web browser. This means developers can work from any device, anywhere, with powerful cloud resources backing their environment.
   • Tools: GitHub Codespaces, Gitpod, AWS Cloud9, VS Code Remote Development.
   • Advancement: Instant onboarding, consistent remote environments, access to high-spec machines regardless of local hardware, enhanced security.

3. Declarative & AI-Assisted Environments (The Near Future):

   • Description: Development environments will become even more declarative, where developers specify what they need, and AI/automation tools provision and maintain it. AI will proactively identify dependency issues, optimize resource usage, suggest code snippets, and perform automated testing within the environment.
   • Tools: Next-gen dev container specifications, AI agents integrated into IDEs and CI/CD pipelines.
   • Prediction: Near-zero environment setup time, self-healing environments, proactive problem identification, truly seamless collaboration.

---

web3 #computing #cloud #devstr

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

"Army study suggests U.S. force of 20,000"

The Washington Times - Friday, April 5, 2002

<https://www.ord.io/74523380>

The Bush administration says there are no active plans to put American peacekeepers between Palestinians and Israelis, but at least one internal military study says 20,000 well-armed troops would be needed.

The Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS), an elite training ground and think tank at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., produced the study last year. The 68-page paper tells how the major operation would be run the first year, with peacekeepers stationed in Gaza, Hebron, Jerusalem and Nablus.

One major goal would be to “neutralize leadership of Palestine dissenting factions [and] prevent inter-Palestinian violence.”

The military is known to update secret contingency plans in the event international peacekeepers are part of a comprehensive Middle East peace plan. The SAMS study, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, provides a glimpse of what those plans might entail.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld repeatedly has said the administration has no plans to put American troops between the warring factions. But since the escalation of violence, more voices in the debate are beginning to suggest that some type of American-led peace enforcement team is needed.

Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Republican, quoted U.S. special envoy Gen. Anthony Zinni as saying there is a plan, if needed, to put a limited number of American peacekeepers in the Israeli-occupied territories.

Asked on CBS whether he could envision American troops on the ground, Mr. Specter said Sunday: “If we were ever to stabilize the situation, and that was a critical factor, it’s something that I would be willing to consider.”

Added Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, “In that context, yes, and with European forces as well.”

The recent history of international peacekeeping has shown that it often takes American firepower and prestige for the operation to work. The United Nations made futile attempts to stop Serbian attacks on the Muslim population in Bosnia.

The U.S. entered the fray by bombing Serbian targets and bringing about a peace agreement that still is being backed up by American soldiers on the ground. U.S. combat troops are also in Kosovo, and they have a more limited role in Macedonia.

But James Phillips, a Middle East analyst at the Heritage Foundation, used the word “disaster” to describe the aftermath of putting an international force in the occupied territories.

“I think that would be a formula for sucking us into the violence,” he said. “United States troops would be a lightening rod for attacks by radical Islamics and other Palestinian extremist groups. The United States cannot afford to stretch its forces any thinner. They’re very busy as it is with the war against international terrorism.”

Mr. Phillips noted that two Norwegian observers in Hebron were killed this week. U.N. representatives on the Lebanon border have been unable to prevent terrorists from attacking Israel.

The SAMS paper tries to predict events in the first year of peacekeeping and the dangers U.S. troops would face.

It calls the Israeli armed forces a “500-pound gorilla in Israel. Well armed and trained. Operates in both Gaza [and the West Bank]. Known to disregard international law to accomplish mission. Very unlikely to fire on American forces.”

On the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, the Army study says, “Wildcard. Ruthless and cunning. Has capability to target U.S. forces and make it look like a Palestinian/Arab act.”

It described Palestinian youth as “loose cannons; under no control, sometimes violent.” The study was done by 60 officers dubbed the “Jedi Knights,” as all second-year SAMS students are called. The Times first reported on their work in September. Recent violence in the Middle East has raised questions about what type of force it would take to keep the peace.

In the past, SAMS has done studies for the Army chief of staff and the Joint Chiefs. SAMS personnel helped plan the allied ground attack that liberated Kuwait.

The Middle East study sets goals that a peace force should accomplish in the first 30 days. They include “create conditions for development of Palestinian State and security of [Israel],” ensure “equal distribution of contract value or equivalent aid” and “build lasting relationships based on new legal borders and not religious-territorial claims.”

The SAMS report does not specify a full order of battle for the 20,000 troops. An Army source who reviewed the paper said each of three brigades would require about 100 armored vehicles, 25 tanks and 12 self-propelled howitzers, along with attack helicopters and spy drones.

The Palestinians have supported calls for an international force, but Tel Aviv has opposed the idea.

<https://www.ord.io/74523380>

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2002/apr/5/20020405-041726-2086r/

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Solzhenitsyn Would Have Loved Bitcoin

I didn’t plan to write this. But a comment from @HODL stirred something in me — a passing thought that took root and wouldn’t let go:

> “Solzhenitsyn would have understood Bitcoin.”

The more I sat with it, the more I realized: he wouldn’t have just understood it — he would have loved it.

---

A Life of Resistance

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn didn’t just survive the Soviet gulags — he exposed them. Through The Gulag Archipelago and other works, he revealed the quiet machinery of evil: not always through brutality, but through systemic lies, suppressed memory, and coerced consensus.

His core belief was devastatingly simple:

> “The line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being.”

He never let anyone off the hook — not the state, not the system, not even himself. Evil, to Solzhenitsyn, was not “out there.” It was within. And resisting it required truth, courage, and deep personal responsibility.

---

Bitcoin: Truth That Resists

That’s why I believe Solzhenitsyn would have resonated with Bitcoin.

Not the hype. Not the coins. Not the influencers.

But the heart of it:

• A system that resists coercion.

• A ledger that cannot be falsified.

• A network that cannot be silenced.

• A protocol that doesn't care about party lines — only proof of work.

Bitcoin is incorruptible memory.\ Solzhenitsyn fought to preserve memory in the face of state erasure.\ Bitcoin cannot forget — and it cannot be made to lie.

---

Responsibility and Sovereignty

Bitcoin demands what Solzhenitsyn demanded: moral responsibility. You hold your keys. You verify your truth. You cannot delegate conscience.

He once wrote:

> “A man who is not inwardly prepared for the use of violence against him is always weaker than his opponent.”

Bitcoin flips that equation. It gives the peaceful man a weapon: truth that cannot be seized.

---

I’ve Felt This Line Too

I haven’t read all of The Gulag Archipelago — it’s long, and weighty — but I’ve read enough to know Solzhenitsyn’s voice. And I’ve felt the line he describes:

> That dividing line between good and evil… that runs through my own heart.

That’s why I left the noise of Web3. That’s why I’m building with Bitcoin. Because I believe the moral architecture of this protocol matters. It forces me to live in alignment — or walk away.

---

Final Word

I think Solzhenitsyn would have seen Bitcoin not as a tech innovation, but as a moral stand. Not a replacement for Christ — but a quiet echo of His justice.

And that’s why I keep stacking, writing, building — one block at a time.

---

Written with help from ChatGPT (Dr. C), and inspired by a comment from @HODL that sparked something deep.

If this resonated, feel free to zap a few sats — not because I need them, but because signal flows best when it’s shared with intention.

---

HODL mentioned this idea in a note — their Primal profile:\ https://primal.net/hodl

@ 58537364:705b4b85

Ep 228 "วิชาชีวิต"

คนเราเมื่อเกิดมาแล้ว ไม่ได้หวังแค่มีชีวิตรอดเท่านั้น แต่ยังปรารถนา "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" และ "ความสุขในชีวิต"

จึงพากันศึกษาเล่าเรียนเพื่อให้มี "วิชาความรู้" สำหรับการประกอบอาชีพ โดยเชื่อว่า การงานที่มั่นคงย่อมนำ "ความสำเร็จ" และ "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" มาให้

อย่างไรก็ตาม...ความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพหรือความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ไม่ได้เป็นหลักประกันความสุขอย่างแท้จริง

แม้เงินทองและทรัพย์สมบัติจะช่วยให้ชีวิตมีความสุข สะดวก สบาย แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้สุขใจในสิ่งที่ตนมี หากยังรู้สึกว่า "ตนยังมีไม่พอ"

ขณะเดียวกันชื่อเสียงเกียรติยศที่ได้มาก็ไม่ช่วยให้คลายความทุกข์ใจ เมื่อต้องเผชิญปัญหาต่างๆ นาๆ

ทั้งการพลัดพราก การสูญเสียบุคคลผู้เป็นที่รัก ความเจ็บป่วย และความตายที่ต้องเกิดขึ้นกับทุกคน

ยิ่งกว่านั้น...ความสำเร็จในอาชีพและความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ล้วนเป็น "สิ่งไม่เที่ยง" แปรผันตกต่ำ ไม่สามารถควบคุมได้

วิชาชีพทั้งหลายช่วยให้เราหาเงินได้มากขึ้น แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้เราเข้าถึง "ความสุขที่แท้จริง"

คนที่ประสบความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพไม่น้อย ที่มีชีวิตอมทุกข์ ความเครียดรุมเร้า สุขภาพเสื่อมโทรม

หากเราไม่อยากเผชิญกับสิ่งเหล่านี้ ควรเรียน "วิชาชีวิต" เพื่อเข้าใจโลก เข้าใจชีวิต รู้เท่าทันความผันแปรไปของสรรพสิ่ง

วิชาชีวิต...เรียนจากประสบการณ์ชีวิต เมื่อมีปัญหาต่างๆ ขอให้คิดว่า คือ "บททดสอบ"

จงหมั่นศึกษาหาบทเรียนจากวิชานี้อยู่เสมอ สร้าง "ความตระหนักรู้" ถึงความสำคัญในการมีชีวิต

ช่วงที่ผ่านมา เมื่อมีปัญหาฉันไม่สามารถหาทางออกจากทุกข์ได้เศร้า เสียใจ ทุรน ทุราย สอบตก "วิชาชีวิต"

โชคดีครูบาอาจารย์ให้ข้อคิด กล่าวว่า เป็นเรื่องธรรมดาหากเรายังไม่เข้าใจชีวิต ทุกสิ่งล้วนผันแปร เกิด-ดับ เป็นธรรมดา ท่านเมตตาส่งหนังสือเล่มนี้มาให้

เมื่อค่อยๆ ศึกษา ทำความเข้าใจ นำความทุกข์ที่เกิดขึ้นมาพิจารณา เห็นว่าเมื่อ "สอบตก" ก็ "สอบใหม่" จนกว่าจะผ่านไปได้

วิชาทางโลกเมื่อสอบตกยังเปิดโอกาสให้เรา "สอบซ่อม" วิชาทางธรรมก็เช่นเดียวกัน หากเจอปัญหา อุปสรรค หรือ ความทุกข์ถาโถมเข้ามา ขอให้เราตั้งสติ ว่า จะตั้งใจทำข้อสอบนี้ให้ผ่านไปให้จงได้

หากเราสามารถดำเนินชีวิตด้วยความเข้าใจ เราจะค้นพบ "วิชาชีวิต" ที่สามารถทำให้หลุดพ้นจากความทุกข์ได้แน่นอน

ด้วยรักและปรารถนาดี ปาริชาติ รักตะบุตร 21 เมษายน 2566

น้อมกราบขอบพระคุณพระ อ.ไพศาล วิสาโล เป็นอย่างสูง ที่ท่านเมตตา ให้ข้อธรรมะยามทุกข์ใจและส่งหนังสือมาให้ จึงตั้งใจอยากแบ่งปันเป็นธรรมทาน

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Most of the assets I hold—real estate, equities, and businesses—depreciate in value over time. Some literally, like physical buildings and equipment. Some functionally, like tech platforms that age faster than they grow. Even cash, which should feel "safe," quietly loses ground to inflation. Yet I continue to build. I continue to hold. And I continue to believe that what I’m doing matters.

But underneath all of that — beneath the mortgages, margin trades, and business pivots — I’ve made a long-term bet:

Bitcoin will outlast the decay.

---

The Decaying System I Still Operate In

Let me be clear: I’m not a Bitcoin purist. I use debt. I borrow to acquire real estate. I trade with margin in a brokerage account. I understand leverage — not as a sin, but as a tool that must be used with precision and respect. But I’m also not naive.

The entire fiat-based financial system is built on a slow erosion of value. Inflation isn't a bug — it’s a feature. And it's why most business models, whether in real estate or retail, implicitly rely on asset inflation just to stay solvent.

That’s not sustainable. And it’s not honest.

---

The Bitcoin Thesis: Deflation That Works for You

Bitcoin is fundamentally different. Its supply is fixed. Its issuance is decreasing. Over time, as adoption grows and fiat weakens, Bitcoin’s purchasing power increases.

That changes the game.

If you can hold even a small portion of your balance sheet in BTC — not just as an investment, but as a strategic hedge — it becomes a way to offset the natural depreciation of your other holdings. Your buildings may age. Your cash flow may fluctuate. But your Bitcoin, if properly secured and held with conviction, becomes the anchor.

It’s not about day trading BTC or catching the next ATH. It’s about understanding that in a world designed to leak value, Bitcoin lets you patch the hole.

---

Why This Matters for Builders

If you run a business — especially one with real assets, recurring costs, or thin margins — you know how brutal depreciation can be. Taxes, maintenance, inflation, replacement cycles… it never stops.

Adding BTC to your long-term treasury isn’t about becoming a "crypto company." It’s about becoming anti-fragile. It’s about building with a component that doesn’t rot.

In 5, 10, or 20 years, I may still be paying off mortgages and navigating property cycles. But if my Bitcoin allocation is still intact, still growing in real purchasing power… then I haven’t just preserved wealth. I’ve preserved optionality. I’ve created a counterbalance to the relentless decay of everything else.

---

Final Word

I still play the fiat game — because for now, I have to. But I’m no longer betting everything on it. Bitcoin is my base layer now. Quiet, cold-stored, and uncompromising.

It offsets depreciation — not just financially, but philosophically. It reminds me that not everything has to erode. Not everything has to be sacrificed to time or policy or inflation.

Some things can actually hold. Some things can last.

And if I build right — maybe what I build can last too.

---

If this resonated, feel free to send a zap — it helps me keep writing and building from a place of conviction.

This article was co-written with the help of ChatGPT, a tool I use to refine and clarify what I’m working through in real time.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

ในสายตาคนรักสุขภาพทั่วโลก “อโวคาโด” คือผลไม้ในฝัน มันมีไขมันดี มีไฟเบอร์สูง ช่วยลดคอเลสเตอรอลได้ มีวิตามินอี มีโพแทสเซียม และที่สำคัญคือ "ดูดี" ทุกครั้งที่ถูกปาดวางบนขนมปังโฮลวีตในชามสลัด หรือบนโฆษณาอาหารคลีนสุดหรู

แต่ในสายตาชาวไร่บางคนในเม็กซิโกหรือชุมชนพื้นเมืองในโดมินิกัน อโวคาโดไม่ใช่ผลไม้แห่งสุขภาพ แต่มันคือสัญลักษณ์ของความรุนแรง การกดขี่ และการสูญเสียเสรีภาพในผืนดินของตัวเอง

เมื่ออาหารกลายเป็นทองคำ กลุ่มอิทธิพลก็ไม่เคยพลาดจะเข้าครอบครอง

เรามักได้ยินคำว่า "ทองคำเขียว" หรือ Green Gold ใช้เรียกอโวคาโด เพราะในรอบ 20 ปีที่ผ่านมา ความต้องการบริโภคของมันพุ่งสูงขึ้นเป็นเท่าตัว โดยเฉพาะในสหรัฐฯ และยุโรป จากผลการวิจัยของมหาวิทยาลัยฮาร์วาร์ดและข้อมูลการส่งออกของ USDA พบว่า 90% ของอโวคาโดที่บริโภคในอเมริกา มาจากรัฐมิโชอากังของเม็กซิโก พื้นที่ซึ่งควบคุมโดยกลุ่มค้ายาเสพติดไม่ต่างจากเจ้าของสวนตัวจริง

พวกเขาเรียกเก็บ “ค่าคุ้มครอง” จากเกษตรกร โดยใช้วิธีเดียวกับมาเฟีย คือ ถ้าไม่จ่าย ก็เจ็บตัวหรือหายตัว ไม่ว่าจะเป็นกลุ่ม CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel), Familia Michoacana หรือ Caballeros Templarios พวกเขาไม่ได้สนใจว่าใครปลูกหรือใครรดน้ำ ตราบใดที่ผลผลิตสามารถเปลี่ยนเป็นเงินได้

องค์กรอาชญากรรมเหล่านี้ไม่ได้แค่ “แฝงตัว” ในอุตสาหกรรม แต่ ยึดครอง ห่วงโซ่การผลิตทั้งหมด ตั้งแต่แปลงปลูกไปจนถึงโรงบรรจุและเส้นทางขนส่ง คนที่ไม่ยอมเข้าระบบมืดอาจต้องพบจุดจบในป่า หรือไม่มีชื่ออยู่ในทะเบียนบ้านอีกต่อไป

จากรายงานของเว็บไซต์ Food is Power องค์กรไม่แสวงกำไรด้านความยุติธรรมด้านอาหารในสหรัฐฯ เผยว่า ในปี 2020 มีเกษตรกรในเม็กซิโกจำนวนมากที่ถูกข่มขู่ บางรายถึงขั้นถูกฆาตกรรม เพราะปฏิเสธจ่ายค่าคุ้มครองจากกลุ่มค้ายา

การปลูกอโวคาโดไม่ใช่เรื่องเบาๆ กับธรรมชาติ เพราะมันต้องการ “น้ำ” มากถึง 272 ลิตรต่อผลเดียว! เรามาดูว่า “272 ลิตร” นี้ เท่ากับอะไรบ้างในชีวิตจริง อาบน้ำฝักบัวนาน 10–12 นาที (โดยเฉลี่ยใช้น้ำ 20–25 ลิตรต่อนาที) ใช้น้ำซักเสื้อผ้าเครื่องหนึ่ง (เครื่องซักผ้า 1 ครั้งกินประมาณ 60–100 ลิตร) น้ำดื่มของคนหนึ่งคนได้นานเกือบ เดือน (คนเราต้องการน้ำดื่มประมาณ 1.5–2 ลิตรต่อวัน)

ถ้าเราใช้ข้อมูลจาก FAO และ Water Footprint Network การผลิตเนื้อวัว 1 กิโลกรัม ต้องใช้น้ำ 15,000 ลิตร (รวมทั้งการปลูกหญ้า อาหารสัตว์ การดื่มน้ำของวัว ฯลฯ) ได้โปรตีนราว 250 กรัม อโวคาโด 1 กิโลกรัม (ราว 5 ผล) ใช้น้ำประมาณ 1,360 ลิตร ได้โปรตีนเพียง 6–8 กรัมเท่านั้น พูดง่ายๆคือ เมื่อเทียบอัตราส่วนเป็นลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีนแล้วนั้น วัวใช้น้ำ 60 ลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีน / อโวคาโด ใช้น้ำ 194 ลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีน แถมการเลี้ยงวัวในระบบธรรมชาติ (เช่น pasture-raised หรือ regenerative farming) ยังสามารถเป็นส่วนหนึ่งของระบบหมุนเวียนน้ำและคาร์บอนได้ พอเห็นภาพแล้วใช่ไหมครับ ดังนั้นเราควรระมัดระวังการเสพสื่อเอาไว้ด้วยว่า คำว่า "ดีต่อโลก" ไม่ได้หมายถึงพืชอย่างเดียว ทุกธุรกิจถ้าทำแบบที่ควรทำ มันยังสามารถผลักดันโลกไม่ให้ตกอยู่ในมือองค์กร future food ได้ เพราะมูลค่ามันสูงมาก

และเมื่อราคาสูง พื้นที่เพาะปลูกก็ขยายอย่างไร้การควบคุม ป่าธรรมชาติในรัฐมิโชอากังถูกแอบโค่นแบบผิดกฎหมายเพื่อแปลงสภาพเป็นไร่ “ทองเขียว” ข้อมูลจาก Reuters พบว่าผลไม้ที่ถูกส่งออกไปยังสหรัฐฯ บางส่วนมาจากแปลงปลูกที่บุกรุกป่าคุ้มครอง และรัฐบาลเองก็ไม่สามารถควบคุมได้เพราะอิทธิพลของกลุ่มทุนและมาเฟีย

ในโดมินิกันก็เช่นกัน มีรายงานจากสำนักข่าว Gestalten ว่าพื้นที่ป่าสงวนหลายพันไร่ถูกเปลี่ยนเป็นไร่อโวคาโด เพื่อป้อนตลาดผู้บริโภคในอเมริกาและยุโรปโดยตรง โดยไม่มีการชดเชยใดๆ แก่ชุมชนท้องถิ่น

สุขภาพที่ดีไม่ควรได้มาจากการทำลายสุขภาพของคนอื่น ไม่ควรมีผลไม้ใดที่ดูดีในจานของเรา แล้วเบื้องหลังเต็มไปด้วยคราบเลือดและน้ำตาของคนปลูก

เฮียไม่ได้จะบอกให้เลิกกินอโวคาโดเลย แต่เฮียอยากให้เรารู้ทัน ว่าความนิยมของอาหารสุขภาพวันนี้ กำลังเป็นสนามใหม่ของกลุ่มทุนโลก ที่พร้อมจะครอบครองด้วย “อำนาจอ่อน” ผ่านแบรนด์อาหารธรรมชาติ ผ่านกฎหมายสิ่งแวดล้อม หรือแม้แต่การครอบงำตลาดเสรีด้วยกำลังอาวุธ

นี่ไม่ใช่เรื่องไกลตัว เพราะเมื่อกลุ่มทุนเริ่มฮุบเมล็ดพันธุ์ คุมเส้นทางขนส่ง คุมฉลาก Certified Organic ทั้งหลาย พวกเขาก็ “ควบคุมสุขภาพ” ของผู้บริโภคเมืองอย่างเราไปด้วยโดยอ้อม

คำถามสำคัญที่มาทุกครั้งเวลามีเนื้อหาอะไรมาฝากคือ แล้วเราจะทำอะไรได้? 555555 - เลือกบริโภคผลไม้จากแหล่งที่โปร่งใสหรือปลูกเองได้ - สนับสนุนเกษตรกรรายย่อยที่ไม่อยู่ภายใต้กลุ่มทุน - ใช้เสียงของผู้บริโภคกดดันให้มีระบบตรวจสอบต้นทางจริง ไม่ใช่แค่ฉลากเขียวสวยๆ - และที่สำคัญ อย่าเชื่อว่า “ทุกสิ่งที่เขาวางให้ดูสุขภาพดี” จะดีจริง (ข้อนี่ละตัวดีเลยครับ)

สุขภาพไม่ใช่สินค้า และอาหารไม่ควรเป็นอาวุธของกลุ่มทุน หากเราเริ่มตระหนักว่าอาหารคือการเมือง น้ำคืออำนาจ และแปลงเกษตรคือสนามรบ เฮียเชื่อว่าผู้บริโภคอย่างเราจะไม่ยอมเป็นหมากอีกต่อไป #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

@ 611021ea:089a7d0f

The world of health and fitness data is booming. Users are tracking more aspects of their well-being than ever before, from daily steps and workout intensity to sleep patterns and caloric intake. But for developers looking to build innovative applications on this data, significant hurdles remain: ensuring user privacy, achieving interoperability between different services, and simply managing the complexity of diverse health metrics.

Enter the NIP-101h Health Profile Framework and its companion tools: the HealthNote SDK and the HealthNote API. This ecosystem is designed to empower developers to create next-generation health and fitness applications that are both powerful and privacy-preserving, built on the decentralized and user-centric principles of Nostr.

NIP-101h: A Standardized Language for Health Metrics

At the core of this ecosystem is NIP-101h. It's a Nostr Improvement Proposal that defines a standardized way to represent, store, and share granular health and fitness data. Instead of proprietary data silos, NIP-101h introduces specific Nostr event kinds for individual metrics like weight (kind 1351), height (kind 1352), step count (kind 1359), and many more.

Key features of NIP-101h:

• Granularity: Each piece of health information (e.g., weight, caloric intake) is a distinct Nostr event, allowing for fine-grained control and access.
• User Control: Built on Nostr, the data remains under user control. Users decide what to share, with whom, and on which relays.
• Standardization: Defines common structures for units, timestamps, and metadata, promoting interoperability.
• Extensibility: New metrics can be added as new NIP-101h.X specifications, allowing the framework to evolve.
• Privacy by Design: Encourages the use of NIP-04/NIP-44 for encryption and includes a consent tag for users to specify data-sharing preferences.

You can explore the full NIP-101h specification and its metric directory in the main project repository.

The HealthNote SDK: Simplifying Client-Side Integration

While NIP-101h provides the "what," the HealthNote SDK provides the "how" for client-side applications. This (currently draft) TypeScript SDK aims to make it trivial for developers to:

• Create & Validate NIP-101h Events: Easily construct well-formed Nostr events for any supported health metric, ensuring they conform to the NIP-101h specification.
• Handle Encryption: Seamlessly integrate with NIP-44 to encrypt sensitive health data before publication.
• Manage Consent: Automatically include appropriate consent tags (e.g., defaulting to aggregate-only) to respect user preferences.
• Publish to Relays: Interact with Nostr relays to publish the user's health data.
• Prepare Data for Analytics: Extract minimal, privacy-preserving "stat-blobs" for use with the HealthNote API.

The SDK's goal is to abstract away the low-level details of Nostr event creation and NIP-101h formatting, letting developers focus on their application's unique features.

The HealthNote API: Powerful Insights, Zero Raw Data Exposure

This is where things get really exciting for developers wanting to build data-driven features. The HealthNote API (detailed in HealthNote-API.md) is a server-side component designed to provide powerful analytics over aggregated NIP-101h data without ever accessing or exposing individual users' raw, unencrypted metrics.

Here's how it achieves this:

1. Privacy-Preserving Ingestion: The SDK sends only "stat-blobs" to the API. These blobs contain the numeric value, unit, timestamp, and metric kind, but not the original encrypted content or sensitive user identifiers beyond what's necessary for aggregation.
2. Aggregation at its Core: The API's endpoints are designed to return only aggregated data.
   • GET /trend: Provides time-series data (e.g., average daily step count over the last month).
   • GET /correlate: Computes statistical correlations between two metrics (e.g., does increased activity duration correlate with changes in workout intensity?).
   • GET /distribution: Shows how values for a metric are distributed across the user base.
3. Built-in Privacy Techniques:
   • k-Anonymity: Ensures that each data point in an aggregated response represents at least 'k' (e.g., 5) distinct users, preventing re-identification.
   • Differential Privacy (Optional): Can add statistical noise to query results, further protecting individual data points while preserving overall trends.
4. No Raw Data Access for Developers: Developers querying the API receive only these aggregated, anonymized results, perfect for powering charts, dashboards, and trend analysis in their applications.

A Typical Workflow

1. A user records a workout in their NIP-101h-compatible fitness app.
2. The app uses the HealthNote SDK to create NIP-101h events for metrics like distance, duration, and calories burned. Sensitive data is encrypted.
3. The SDK publishes these events to the user's configured Nostr relays.
4. The SDK also extracts stat-blobs (e.g., { kind: 1363, value: 5, unit: 'km', ... }) and sends them to the HealthNote API for ingestion, tagged with an aggregate-only consent.
5. Later, the app (or an authorized third-party service) queries the HealthNote API: GET /trend?kind=1363&bucket=week&stat=sum.
6. The API returns a JSON object like: {"series": [{"date": "2024-W20", "value": 15000}, ...]} showing the total distance run by all consenting users, week by week. This data can directly populate a trend chart.

Benefits for the Ecosystem

• For Users:
  • Greater control and ownership of their health data.
  • Ability to use a diverse range of interoperable health and fitness apps.
  • Confidence that their data can contribute to insights without sacrificing personal privacy.
• For Developers:
  • Easier to build sophisticated health and fitness applications without becoming privacy experts or building complex data aggregation pipelines.
  • Access to rich, aggregated data for creating compelling user-facing features (trends, benchmarks, correlations).
  • Reduced burden of storing and securing sensitive raw health data for analytical purposes.
  • Opportunity to participate in an open, interoperable ecosystem.

The Road Ahead

The NIP-101h framework, the HealthNote SDK, and the HealthNote API are foundational pieces for a new generation of health and fitness applications. As these tools mature and gain adoption, we envision a vibrant ecosystem where users can seamlessly move their data between services, and developers can innovate rapidly, all while upholding the highest standards of privacy and user control.

We encourage developers to explore the NIP-101h specifications, experiment with the (upcoming) SDK, and review the HealthNote API design. Your feedback and contributions will be invaluable as we build this privacy-first future for health data.

https://github.com/HealthNoteLabs

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

The upcoming Bitcoin 2025 conference, scheduled from May 27–29 at the Venetian Conference Center in Las Vegas, is set to make history with an official attempt to break the GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS® title for the most Bitcoin point-of-sale transactions in an eight-hour period.

Organized by BTC Inc, the event will showcase Bitcoin’s evolution from a digital capital asset to a practical medium of exchange, leveraging the latest advancements in payment technology.

Tap-to-Pay with Lightning-Ready Bolt Cards

To facilitate this record-setting attempt, 4,000 Lightning-ready Bolt Cards will be distributed to conference attendees.

pic.twitter.com/Iy7P361u6u

— Uncle Rockstar Developer (@r0ckstardev) May 15, 2025

These NFC-enabled cards allow users to make instant, contactless Bitcoin payments at vendor booths throughout the expo-no apps or QR codes required, just a simple tap. 

The cards are available in four collectible designs, each featuring a prominent figure in Bitcoin’s history: Senator Cynthia Lummis, Michael Saylor, Satoshi Nakamoto, and Jack Dorsey. 

Each attendee will receive a randomly assigned card, making them both functional and collectible souvenirs.

Senator Lummis: A Playful Provocation

Notably, one of the card designs features Senator Cynthia Lummis with laser eyes-a playful nod to her reputation as a leading Bitcoin advocate in US politics. 

While Lummis is known for her legislative efforts to promote Bitcoin integration, she has publicly stated she prefers to “spend dollars and save Bitcoin,” viewing BTC as a long-term store of value rather than a daily currency. 

The choice to feature her on the Bolt Card, could be suggested by Rockstar Dev of the BTC Pay Server Foundation, perhaps a lighthearted way to highlight the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in everyday payments.

Nothing cracks me up quite like a senator that wants the US to buy millions of Bitcoin use dollars to buy a beer at a Bitcoin bar.

This is how unserious some of you are. pic.twitter.com/jftIEggmip

— Magoo PhD (@HodlMagoo) April 4, 2025

How Bolt Cards and the Lightning Network Work

Bolt Cards are physical cards equipped with NFC (Near Field Communication) technology, similar to contactless credit or debit cards. When linked to a compatible Lightning wallet, they enable users to make Bitcoin payments over the Lightning Network by simply tapping the card at a point-of-sale terminal. 

The Lightning Network is a second-layer protocol built on top of Bitcoin, designed to facilitate instant, low-cost transactions ideal for everyday purchases. 

This integration aims to make Bitcoin as easy to use as traditional payment methods, eliminating the need for QR code scanning or mobile apps.

A Showcase for Bitcoin’s Real-World Usability

With over 30,000 attendees, 300 exhibitors, and 500 speakers expected, the Bitcoin 2025 conference is poised to be the largest Bitcoin event of the year-and potentially the most transactional. 

The event will feature on-site activations such as the Official Bitcoin Magazine Store, where all merchandise will be available at a 21% discount for those paying with Bitcoin via the Lightning Network-a nod to Bitcoin’s 21 million coin supply limit.

By deeply integrating Lightning payments into the conference experience, organizers hope to demonstrate Bitcoin’s readiness for mainstream commerce and set a new benchmark for its practical use as a currency.

Conclusion

The Guinness World Record attempt at Bitcoin 2025 is more than a publicity stunt-it’s a bold demonstration of Bitcoin’s technological maturity and its potential to function as a modern, everyday payment method.

Whether or not the record is set, the event will serve as a milestone in the ongoing journey to make Bitcoin a truly global, user-friendly currency

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

WikiLeaks The Global Intelligence Files

Released on 2013-03-04 00:00 GMT

| Email-ID | 296467 | | -------- | -------------------------- | | Date | 2007-10-29 20:54:22 | | From | <hrwpress@hrw.org> | | To | <responses@stratfor.com> |

Gaza: Israel's Fuel and Power Cuts Violate Laws of War\ \ For Immediate Release\ \ Gaza: Israel's Fuel and Power Cuts Violate Laws of War\ \ Civilians Should Not Be Penalized for Rocket Attacks by Armed Groups\ \ (New York, October 29, 2007) - Israel's decision to limit fuel and\ electricity to the Gaza Strip in retaliation for unlawful rocket attacks\ by armed groups amounts to collective punishment against the civilian\ population of Gaza, in violation of international law, and will worsen the\ humanitarian crisis there, Human Rights Watch said today.\ \ "Israel may respond to rocket attacks by armed groups to protect its\ population, but only in lawful ways," said Sarah Leah Whitson, director of\ Human Rights Watch's Middle East division. "Because Israel remains an\ occupying power, in light of its continuing restrictions on Gaza, Israel\ must not take measures that harm the civilian population - yet that is\ precisely what cutting fuel or electricity for even short periods will\ do."\ \ On Sunday, the Israeli Defense Ministry ordered the reduction of fuel\ shipments from Israel to Gaza. A government spokesman said the plan was to\ cut the amount of fuel by 5 to 11 percent without affecting the supply of\ industrial fuel for Gaza's only power plant.\ \ According to Palestinian officials, fuel shipments into Gaza yesterday\ fell by more than 30 percent.\ \ In response to the government's decision, a group of 10 Palestinian and\ Israeli human rights groups petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court on\ Sunday, seeking an immediate injunction against the fuel and electricity\ cuts. The court gave the government five days to respond but did not issue\ a temporary injunction. On Monday, the groups requested an urgent hearing\ before the five days expire.\ \ Last Thursday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak approved cutting electricity to\ Gaza for increasing periods in response to ongoing rocket attacks against\ civilian areas in Israel, but the government has not yet implemented the\ order.\ \ The rockets fired by Palestinian armed groups violate the international\ legal prohibition on indiscriminate attacks because they are highly\ inaccurate and cannot be directed at a specific target. Because Hamas\ exercises power inside Gaza, it is responsible for stopping indiscriminate\ attacks even when carried out by other groups, Human Rights Watch said.\ \ On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel would\ respond strongly to the ongoing attacks without allowing a humanitarian\ crisis. But the UN's top humanitarian official, UN Deputy\ Secretary-General John Holmes, said that a "serious humanitarian crisis"\ in Gaza already exists, and called on Israel to lift the economic blockade\ that it tightened after Hamas seized power in June.\ \ Israel's decision to cut fuel and electricity is the latest move aimed\ ostensibly against Hamas that is affecting the entire population of Gaza.\ In September, the Israeli cabinet declared Gaza "hostile territory" and\ voted to "restrict the passage of various goods to the Gaza Strip and\ reduce the supply of fuel and electricity." Since then, Israel has\ increasingly blocked supplies into Gaza, letting in limited amounts of\ essential foodstuffs, medicine and humanitarian supplies. According to\ Holmes, the number of humanitarian convoys entering Gaza had dropped to\ 1,500 in September from 3,000 in July.\ \ "Cutting fuel and electricity obstructs vital services," Whitson said.\ "Operating rooms, sewage pumps, and water well pumps all need electricity\ to run."\ \ Israel sells to Gaza roughly 60 percent of the electricity consumed by the\ territory's 1.5 million inhabitants. In June 2006, six Israeli missiles\ struck Gaza's only power plant; today, for most residents, electricity is\ available during only limited hours.\ \ Israeli officials said they would cut electricity for 15 minutes after\ each rocket attack and then for increasingly longer periods if the attacks\ persist. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Israel would\ "dramatically reduce" the power it supplied to Gaza over a period of\ weeks.\ \ Cutting fuel or electricity to the civilian population violates a basic\ principle of international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, which\ prohibit a government that has effective control over a territory from\ attacking or withholding objects that are essential to the survival of the\ civilian population. Such an act would also violate Israel's duty as an\ occupying power to safeguard the health and welfare of the population\ under occupation.\ \ Israel withdrew its military forces and settlers from the Gaza Strip in\ 2005. Nonetheless, Israel remains responsible for ensuring the well-being\ of Gaza's population for as long as, and to the extent that, it retains\ effective control over the area. Israel still exercises control over\ Gaza's airspace, sea space and land borders, as well as its electricity,\ water, sewage and telecommunications networks and population registry.\ Israel can and has also reentered Gaza for security operations at will.\ \ Israeli officials state that by declaring Gaza "hostile territory," it is\ no longer obliged under international law to supply utilities to the\ civilian population, but that is a misstatement of the law.\ \ "A mere declaration does not change the facts on the ground that impose on\ Israel the status and obligations of an occupying power," said Whitson.\ \ For more information, please contact:\ \ In New York, Fred Abrahams (English, German): +1-917-385-7333 (mobile)\ \ In Washington, DC, Joe Stork (English): +1-202-299-4925 (mobile)\ \ In Cairo, Gasser Abdel-Razek (Arabic, English): +20-2-2-794-5036 (mobile);\ or +20-10-502-9999 (mobile)

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Flash, an all-in-one Bitcoin payment platform, has announced the launch of Flash 2.0, the most intuitive and powerful Bitcoin payment solution to date.

With a completely redesigned interface, expanded e-commerce integrations, and a frictionless onboarding process, Flash 2.0 makes accepting Bitcoin easier than ever for businesses worldwide.

We did the unthinkable!

Website monetization used to be super complicated.

"Buy me a coffee" — But only if we both have a bank account.

WHAT IF WE DON'T?

Thanks to @paywflash and bitcoin, it's just 5 CLICKS – and no banks!

Start accepting donations on your website… pic.twitter.com/uwZUrvmEZ1

— Flash • The Bitcoin Payment Gateway (@paywflash) May 13, 2025

Accept Bitcoin in Three Minutes

Setting up Bitcoin payments has long been a challenge for merchants, requiring technical expertise, third-party processors, and lengthy verification procedures. Flash 2.0 eliminates these barriers, allowing any business to start accepting Bitcoin in just three minutes, with no technical set-up and full control over their funds.

The Bitcoin Payment Revolution

The world is witnessing a seismic shift in finance. Governments are backing Bitcoin funds, major companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and political figures are embracing it as the future of money. Just as Stripe revolutionized internet payments, Flash is now doing the same for Bitcoin. Businesses that adapt today will gain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

With Bitcoin adoption accelerating, consumers are looking for places to spend it. Flash 2.0 ensures businesses of all sizes can seamlessly accept Bitcoin and position themselves at the forefront of this financial revolution.

All-in-One Monetization Platform

More than just a payment gateway, Flash 2.0 is a complete Bitcoin monetization suite, providing multiple ways for businesses to integrate Bitcoin into their operations. Merchants can accept payments online and in-store, content creators can monetize with donations and paywalls, and freelancers can send instant invoices via payment links.

For example, a jewelry designer selling products on WooCommerce can now integrate Flash for online payments, use Flash’s Point-of-Sale system at trade shows, enable Bitcoin donations for her digital artwork, and lock premium content behind Flash Paywalls. The possibilities are endless.

E-Commerce for Everyone

With built-in integrations for Shopify, WooCommerce, and soon Wix and OpenCart, Flash 2.0 enables Bitcoin payments on 95% of e-commerce stores worldwide. Businesses can now add Bitcoin as a payment option in just a few clicks—without needing developers or external payment processors.

And for those looking to start selling, Flash’s built-in e-commerce features allow users to create online stores, showcase products, and manage payments seamlessly.

No Middlemen, No Chargebacks, No Limits

Unlike traditional payment platforms, Flash does not hold or process funds. Businesses receive Bitcoin directly, instantly, and securely. There are no chargebacks, giving merchants full control over refunds and eliminating fraud. Flash also remains KYC-free, ensuring a seamless experience for businesses and customers alike.

A Completely Redesigned Experience

“The world is waking up to Bitcoin. Just like the internet revolutionized commerce, Bitcoin is reshaping finance. Businesses need solutions that are simple, efficient, and truly decentralized. Flash 2.0 is more than just a payment processor—it’s a gateway to the future of digital transactions, putting financial power back into the hands of businesses.”

— Pierre Corbin, CEO at Flash.

Flash 2.0 introduces a brand-new user interface, making it easier than ever to navigate, set up payments, and manage transactions. With an intuitive dashboard, streamlined checkout, and enhanced mobile compatibility, the platform is built for both new and experienced Bitcoin users.

About Flash

Flash is an all-in-one Bitcoin payment platform that empowers businesses, creators, and freelancers to accept, manage, and grow with Bitcoin. With a mission to make Bitcoin payments accessible to everyone, Flash eliminates complexity and gives users full control over their funds.

To learn more or get started, visit www.paywithflash.com.

Press Contact:

Julien Bouvier
Head of Marketing
+3360941039

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

@grayruby loves to blow up the odds of various sports markets at Predyx. Well, the jig is up, because I finally managed to deposit some sats at BetPlay where I can leverage the mismatched odds.

So, I've now locked in guaranteed wins on the 49ers winning the Super Bowl and the Panthers winning the Stanley Cup.

https://stacker.news/items/987847

@ 34f1ddab:2ca0cf7c

Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝 🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

💻 Advanced Technology Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

Our Recovery Services Include: 📈 Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases. Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery. Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet. Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy. ⚠️ What We Don’t Do While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back! Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

🎉 Start Your Recovery Journey Today! Ready to reclaim your lost crypto? Don’t wait until it’s too late! 👉 cryptrecver.com

📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us! For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on: ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

# Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝

🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

• Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases
• Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses
• Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets
• Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats

You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

Our Recovery Services Include: 📈

• Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

🎉 Start Your Recovery Journey Today!\ Ready to reclaim your lost crypto? Don’t wait until it’s too late!\ 👉 cryptrecver.com

📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us!\ For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on:\ ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver\ 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Bitcoin FilmFest (BFF25) returns to Warsaw for its third edition, blending independent cinema—from feature films and commercials to AI-driven experimental visuals—with education and entertainment.

Hundreds of attendees from around the world will gather for three days of screenings, discussions, workshops, and networking at the iconic Kinoteka Cinema (PKiN), the same venue that hosted the festival’s first two editions in March 2023 and April 2024.

This year’s festival, themed “Beyond the Frame,” introduces new dimensions to its program, including an extra day on May 22 to celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day, the first real-world bitcoin transaction, with what promises to be one of Europe’s largest commemorations of this milestone.

BFF25 bridges independent film, culture, and technology, with a bold focus on decentralized storytelling and creative expression. As a community-driven cultural experience with a slightly rebellious spirit, Bitcoin FilmFest goes beyond movies, yet cinema remains at its heart.

Here’s a sneak peek at the lineup, specially curated for movie buffs:

Generative Cinema –  A special slot with exclusive shorts and a thematic debate on the intersection of AI and filmmaking. Featured titles include, for example: BREAK FREE, SATOSHI: THE CREATION OF BITCOIN, STRANGE CURRENCIES, and BITCOIN IS THE MYCELIUM OF MONEY,  exploring financial independence, traps of the fiat system, and a better future built on sound money.

Upcoming Productions Preview – A bit over an hour-long block of unreleased pilots and works-in-progress. Attendees will get exclusive first looks at projects like FINDING HOME (a travel-meets-personal-journey series), PARALLEL SPACES (a story about alternative communities), and THE LEGEND OF LANDI (a mysterious narrative).

Freedom-Focused Ads & Campaigns – Unique screenings of video commercials, animations, and visual projects, culminating in “The PoWies” (Proof of Work-ies)—the first ever awards show honoring the best Bitcoin-only awareness campaigns.

To get an idea of what might come up at the event, here, you can preview 6 selected ads combined into two 2 videos:

• Unique Bitcoin-Video Ads: Part One
• Unique Bitcoin-Video Ads: Part Two

Open Pitch Competition – A chance for filmmakers to present fresh ideas and unfinished projects to an audience of a dedicated jury, movie fans and potential collaborators. This competitive block isn’t just entertaining—it’s a real opportunity for creators to secure funding and partnerships.

Golden Rabbit Awards: A lively gala honoring films from the festival’s Official Selection, with awards in categories like Best Feature, Best Story, Best Short, and Audience Choice.

BFF25 Main Screenings

Sample titles from BFF25’s Official Selection:

REVOLUCIÓN BITCOIN – A documentary by Juan Pablo, making its first screening outside the Spanish-speaking world in Warsaw this May. Three years of important work, 80 powerful minutes to experience. The film explores Bitcoin’s impact across Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, El Salvador, and Spain through around 40 diverse perspectives. Screening in Spanish with English subtitles, followed by a Q&A with the director.

UNBANKABLE – Luke Willms’ directorial debut, drawing from his multicultural roots and his father’s pioneering HIV/AIDS research. An investigative documentary based on Luke’s journeys through seven African countries, diving into financial experiments and innovations—from mobile money and digital lending to Bitcoin—raising smart questions and offering potential lessons for the West. Its May appearance at BFF25 marks its largest European event to date, following festival screenings and nominations across multiple continents over the past year.

HOTEL BITCOIN – A Spanish comedy directed by Manuel Sanabria and Carlos “Pocho” Villaverde. Four friends, 4,000 bitcoins , and one laptop spark a chaotic adventure of parties, love, crime, and a dash of madness. Exploring sound money, value, and relationships through a twisting plot. The film premiered at the Tarazona and Moncayo Comedy Film Festival in August 2024. Its Warsaw screening at BFF25 (in Spanish with English subtitles) marks its first public showing outside the Spanish-speaking world.

Check out trailers for this year’s BFF25 and past editions on YouTube.

Tickets & Info:

• Detailed program and tickets are available at bitcoinfilmfest.com/bff25.
• Stay updated via the festival’s official channels (links provided on the website).
• Use ‘LN-NEWS’ to get 10% of tickets

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

I often hear "bitcoin doesn't interest me, I'm not a finance person."

Ironically, the beauty of sound money is you don't have to be. In the current system you're expected to manage a diversified investment portfolio or pay someone to do it. Bitcoin will make that optional.

— ODELL (@ODELL) September 16, 2018

At first glance bitcoin often appears overwhelming to newcomers. It is incredibly easy to get bogged down in the details of how it works or different ways to use it. Enthusiasts, such as myself, often enjoy going down the deep rabbit hole of the potential of bitcoin, possible pitfalls and theoretical scenarios, power user techniques, and the developer ecosystem. If your first touch point with bitcoin is that type of content then it is only natural to be overwhelmed. While it is important that we have a thriving community of bitcoiners dedicated to these complicated tasks - the true beauty of bitcoin lies in its simplicity. Bitcoin is simply better money. It is the best money we have ever had.

Life is complicated. Life is hard. Life is full of responsibility and surprises. Bitcoin allows us to focus on our lives while relying on a money that is simple. A money that is not controlled by any individual, company, or government. A money that cannot be easily seized or blocked. A money that cannot be devalued at will by a handful of corrupt bureaucrat who live hundreds of miles from us. A money that can be easily saved and should increase in purchasing power over time without having to learn how to "build a diversified stock portfolio" or hire someone to do it for us.

Bitcoin enables all of us to focus on our lives - our friends and family - doing what we love with the short time we have on this earth. Time is scarce. Life is complicated. Bitcoin is the most simple aspect of our complicated lives. If we spend our scarce time working then we should be able to easily save that accrued value for future generations without watching the news or understanding complicated financial markets. Bitcoin makes this possible for anyone.

Yesterday was Mother's Day. Raising a human is complicated. It is hard, it requires immense personal responsibility, it requires critical thinking, but mothers figure it out, because it is worth it. Using and saving bitcoin is simple -  simply install an app on your phone. Every mother can do it. Every person can do it.

Life is complicated. Life is beautiful. Bitcoin is simple.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Starting January 1, 2026, the United Kingdom will impose some of the world’s most stringent reporting requirements on cryptocurrency firms.

All platforms operating in or serving UK customers-domestic and foreign alike-must collect and disclose extensive personal and transactional data for every user, including individuals, companies, trusts, and charities. 

This regulatory drive marks the UK’s formal adoption of the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), a global initiative designed to bring crypto oversight in line with traditional banking and to curb tax evasion in the rapidly expanding digital asset sector.

What Will Be Reported?

Crypto firms must gather and submit the following for each transaction:

• User’s full legal name, home address, and taxpayer identification number
• Detailed data on every trade or transfer: type of cryptocurrency, amount, and nature of the transaction
• Identifying information for corporate, trust, and charitable clients

The obligation extends to all digital asset activities, including crypto-to-crypto and crypto-to-fiat trades, and applies to both UK residents and non-residents using UK-based platforms. The first annual reports covering 2026 activity are due by May 31, 2027.

Enforcement and Penalties

Non-compliance will carry stiff financial penalties, with fines of up to £300 per user account for inaccurate or missing data-a potentially enormous liability for large exchanges. The UK government has urged crypto firms to begin collecting this information immediately to ensure operational readiness.

Regulatory Context and Market Impact

This move is part of a broader UK strategy to position itself as a global fintech hub while clamping down on fraud and illicit finance. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has championed these measures, stating, “Britain is open for business – but closed to fraud, abuse, and instability”. The regulatory expansion comes amid a surge in crypto adoption: the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority reported that 12% of UK adults owned crypto in 2024, up from just 4% in 2021.

Enormous Risks for Consumers: Lessons from the Coinbase Data Breach

While the new framework aims to enhance transparency and protect consumers, it also dramatically increases the volume of sensitive personal data held by crypto firms-raising the stakes for cybersecurity.

The risks are underscored by the recent high-profile breach at Coinbase, one of the world’s largest exchanges.

In May 2025, Coinbase disclosed that cybercriminals, aided by bribed offshore contractors, accessed and exfiltrated customer data including names, addresses, government IDs, and partial bank details. 

The attackers then used this information for sophisticated phishing campaigns, successfully deceiving some customers into surrendering account credentials and funds.

“While private encryption keys remained secure, sufficient customer information was exposed to enable sophisticated phishing attacks by criminals posing as Coinbase personnel.”

Coinbase now faces up to $400 million in compensation costs and has pledged to reimburse affected users, but the incident highlights the systemic vulnerability created when large troves of personal data are centralized-even if passwords and private keys are not directly compromised. The breach also triggered a notable drop in Coinbase’s share price and prompted a $20 million bounty for information leading to the attackers’ capture.

The Bottom Line

The UK’s forthcoming crypto reporting regime represents a landmark in financial regulation, promising greater transparency and tax compliance. However, as the Coinbase episode demonstrates, the aggregation of sensitive user data at scale poses a significant cybersecurity risk.

As regulators push for more oversight, the challenge will be ensuring that consumer protection does not become a double-edged sword-exposing users to new threats even as it seeks to shield them from old ones.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

This article was originally published on aier.org

Even after eleven years experience, and a per Bitcoin price of nearly $20,000, the incredulous are still with us. I understand why. Bitcoin is not like other traditional financial assets.

Even describing it as an asset is misleading. It is not the same as a stock, as a payment system, or a money. It has features of all these but it is not identical to them.

What Bitcoin is depends on its use as a means of storing and porting value, which in turn rests of secure titles to ownership of a scarce good. Those without experience in the sector look at all of this and get frustrated that understanding why it is valuable is not so easy to grasp. 

In this article, I’m updating an analysis I wrote six years ago. It still holds up. For those who don’t want to slog through the entire article, my thesis is that Bitcoin’s value obtains from its underlying technology, which is an open-source ledger that keeps track of ownership rights and permits the transfer of these rights. Bitcoin managed to bundle its unit of account with a payment system that lives on the ledger. That’s its innovation and why it obtained a value and that value continues to rise. 

Consider the criticism offered by traditional gold advocates, who have, for decades, pushed the idea that sound money must be backed by something real, hard, and independently valuable. Bitcoin doesn’t qualify, right? Maybe it does. 

Bitcoin first emerged as a possible competitor to national, government-managed money in 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper was released October 31, 2008. The structure and language of this paper sent the message: This currency is for computer technicians, not economists nor political pundits. The paper’s circulation was limited; novices who read it were mystified. 

But the lack of interest didn’t stop history from moving forward. Two months later, those who were paying attention saw the emergence of the “Genesis Block,” the first group of bitcoins generated through Nakamoto’s concept of a distributed ledger that lived on any computer node in the world that wanted to host it.

Here we are all these years later and a single bitcoin trades at $18,500. The currency is held and accepted by many thousands of institutions, both online and offline. Its payment system is very popular in poor countries without vast banking infrastructures but also in developed countries. And major institutions—including the Federal Reserve, the OECD, the World Bank, and major investment houses—are paying respectful attention and weaving blockchain technology into their operations.

Enthusiasts, who are found in every country, say that its exchange value will soar even more in the future because its supply is strictly limited and it provides a system vastly superior to government money. Bitcoin is transferred between individuals without a third party. It is relatively low-cost to exchange. It has a predictable supply. It is durable, fungible, and divisible: all crucial features of money. It creates a monetary system that doesn’t depend on trust and identity, much less on central banks and government. It is a new system for the digital age.

Hard lessons for hard money

To those educated in the “hard money” tradition, the whole idea has been a serious challenge. Speaking for myself, I had been reading about bitcoin for two years before I came anywhere close to understanding it. There was just something about the whole idea that bugged me. You can’t make money out of nothing, much less out of computer code. Why does it have value then? There must be something amiss. This is not how we expected money to be reformed.

There’s the problem: our expectations. We should have been paying closer attention to Ludwig von Mises’ theory of money’s origins—not to what we think he wrote, but to what he actually did write. 

In 1912, Mises released The Theory of Money and Credit. It was a huge hit in Europe when it came out in German, and it was translated into English. While covering every aspect of money, his core contribution was in tracing the value and price of money—and not just money itself—to its origins. That is, he explained how money gets its price in terms of the goods and services it obtains. He later called this process the “regression theorem,” and as it turns out, bitcoin satisfies the conditions of the theorem.

Mises’ teacher, Carl Menger, demonstrated that money itself originates from the market—not from the State and not from social contract. It emerges gradually as monetary entrepreneurs seek out an ideal form of commodity for indirect exchange. Instead of merely bartering with each other, people acquire a good not to consume, but to trade. That good becomes money, the most marketable commodity.

But Mises added that the value of money traces backward in time to its value as a bartered commodity. Mises said that this is the only way money can have value.

The theory of the value of money as such can trace back the objective exchange value of money only to that point where it ceases to be the value of money and becomes merely the value of a commodity…. If in this way we continually go farther and farther back we must eventually arrive at a point where we no longer find any component in the objective exchange value of money that arises from valuations based on the function of money as a common medium of exchange; where the value of money is nothing other than the value of an object that is useful in some other way than as money…. Before it was usual to acquire goods in the market, not for personal consumption, but simply in order to exchange them again for the goods that were really wanted, each individual commodity was only accredited with that value given by the subjective valuations based on its direct utility.

Mises’ explanation solved a major problem that had long mystified economists. It is a narrative of conjectural history, and yet it makes perfect sense. Would salt have become money had it otherwise been completely useless? Would beaver pelts have obtained monetary value had they not been useful for clothing? Would silver or gold have had money value if they had no value as commodities first? The answer in all cases of monetary history is clearly no. The initial value of money, before it becomes widely traded as money, originates in its direct utility. It’s an explanation that is demonstrated through historical reconstruction. That’s Mises’ regression theorem.

Bitcoin’s Use Value

At first glance, bitcoin would seem to be an exception. You can’t use a bitcoin for anything other than money. It can’t be worn as jewelry. You can’t make a machine out of it. You can’t eat it or even decorate with it. Its value is only realized as a unit that facilitates indirect exchange. And yet, bitcoin already is money. It’s used every day. You can see the exchanges in real time. It’s not a myth. It’s the real deal.

It might seem like we have to choose. Is Mises wrong? Maybe we have to toss out his whole theory. Or maybe his point was purely historical and doesn’t apply in the future of a digital age. Or maybe his regression theorem is proof that bitcoin is just an empty mania with no staying power, because it can’t be reduced to its value as a useful commodity.

And yet, you don’t have to resort to complicated monetary theory in order to understand the sense of alarm surrounding bitcoin. Many people, as I did, just have a feeling of uneasiness about a money that has no basis in anything physical. Sure, you can print out a bitcoin on a piece of paper, but having a paper with a QR code or a public key is not enough to relieve that sense of unease.

How can we resolve this problem? In my own mind, I toyed with the issue for more than a year. It puzzled me. I wondered if Mises’ insight applied only in a pre-digital age. I followed the speculations online that the value of bitcoin would be zero but for the national currencies into which it is converted. Perhaps the demand for bitcoin overcame the demands of Mises’ scenario because of a desperate need for something other than the dollar.

As time passed—and I read the work of Konrad Graf, Peter Surda, and Daniel Krawisz—finally the resolution came. Bitcoin is both a payment system and a money. The payment system is the source of value, while the accounting unit merely expresses that value in terms of price. The unity of money and payment is its most unusual feature, and the one that most commentators have had trouble wrapping their heads around.

We are all used to thinking of currency as separate from payment systems. This thinking is a reflection of the technological limitations of history. There is the dollar and there are credit cards. There is the euro and there is PayPal. There is the yen and there are wire services. In each case, money transfer relies on third-party service providers. In order to use them, you need to establish what is called a “trust relationship” with them, which is to say that the institution arranging the deal has to believe that you are going to pay.

This wedge between money and payment has always been with us, except for the case of physical proximity.

If I give you a dollar for your pizza slice, there is no third party. But payment systems, third parties, and trust relationships become necessary once you leave geographic proximity. That’s when companies like Visa and institutions like banks become indispensable. They are the application that makes the monetary software do what you want it to do.

The hitch is that

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Breez, a leader in Lightning Network infrastructure, and Spark, a bitcoin-native Layer 2 (L2) platform, today announced a groundbreaking collaboration to empower developers with tools to seamlessly integrate self-custodial bitcoin payments into everyday applications.

The partnership introduces a new implementation of the Breez SDK built on Spark’s bitcoin-native infrastructure, accelerating the evolution of bitcoin from “digital gold” to a global, permissionless currency.

The Breez SDK is expanding

We’re joining forces with @buildonspark to release a new nodeless implementation of the Breez SDK — giving developers the tools they need to bring Bitcoin payments to everyday apps.

→ https://t.co/iWjZhWRwsx

Bitcoin-Native
Powered by Spark’s…

— Breez (@Breez_Tech) May 22, 2025

A Bitcoin-Native Leap for Developers

The updated Breez SDK leverages Spark’s L2 architecture to deliver a frictionless, bitcoin-native experience for developers.

Key features include:

• Universal Compatibility: Bindings for all major programming languages and frameworks.
• LNURL & Lightning Address Support: Streamlined integration for peer-to-peer transactions.
• Real-Time Interaction: Instant mobile notifications for payment confirmations.
• No External Reliance: Built directly on bitcoin via Spark, eliminating bridges or third-party consensus.

This implementation unlocks use cases such as streaming content payments, social app monetization, in-game currencies, cross-border remittances, and AI micro-settlements—all powered by Bitcoin’s decentralized network.

Quotes from Leadership

Roy Sheinfeld, CEO of Breez:
“Developers are critical to bringing bitcoin into daily life. By building the Breez SDK on Spark’s revolutionary architecture, we’re giving builders a bitcoin-native toolkit to strengthen Lightning as the universal language of bitcoin payments.”

Kevin Hurley, Creator of Spark:
“This collaboration sets the standard for global peer-to-peer transactions. Fast, open, and embedded in everyday apps—this is bitcoin’s future. Together, we’re equipping developers to create next-generation payment experiences.”

David Marcus, Co-Founder and CEO of Lightspark:
“We’re thrilled to see developers harness Spark’s potential. This partnership marks an exciting milestone for the ecosystem.”

Collaboration Details
As part of the agreement, Breez will operate as a Spark Service Provider (SSP), joining Lightspark in facilitating payments and expanding Spark’s ecosystem. Technical specifications for the SDK will be released later this year, with the full implementation slated for launch in 2025.

About Breez
Breez pioneers Lightning Network solutions, enabling developers to embed self-custodial bitcoin payments into apps. Its SDK powers seamless, secure, and decentralized financial interactions.

About Spark
Spark is a bitcoin-native Layer 2 infrastructure designed for payments and settlement, allowing developers to build directly on Bitcoin’s base layer without compromises.

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Como a grande maioria dos brasileiros. Eu não comecei um negócio porque “queria empreender”. Diferente disso, eu PRECISAVA para poder pagar contas e manter o básico.

Festas, openbar e camisas

Meu primeiro negócio foi na verdade um combo. Eu tinha saído do último trampo e eu gostava de festas. Então, comecei a organizar uma festa mensalmente na casa do meu pai. Eu pagava a água, energia e dava uma grana para ele. Em troca, organizava festa de sábado para domingo open bar.

A fórmula era simples. Criava o evento da festa no facebook, convidava todo mundo que conhecia. Panfletava na cidade e espalhava cartazes nos pontos de ônibus sobre a festa. E, para fechar com chave de ouro. Mulher era OFF até 20:00. Consequência? Os caras vinham e pagavam o ingresso deles e delas. Kkkkk. E, enchia…

Comecei a notar que a galera se vestia mal. E, pensei: "Porque não vestir eles?” Pimba! Comecei a desenha e confeccionar camisas para vender nas festas. E, pimba denovo! Vendeu, tudo! Fiz 2 coleções e mais algumas festas. Até o dia que um menino deu PT de tanto beber e decidi que era hora de tentar outra coisa.

Como assim a Apple não vai vender mais os carregadores?

Isso, foi durante a pandemia. A Apple decidiu vender o telefone e o cabo. E, você que lute com a fonte. Estava difícil achar dinheiro no mercado naqueles tempos e eu pensei. Vou pesquisar no google trends e validar a ideia. Caixa! Tinha mais de 80 pts de busca. Colei em SP, no Brás e comprei literalmente. Todo meu dinheiro de cabo de iphone, carregador e bateria portátil.

Fiquei com R$100 na conta. Para fazer um lanche e pagar pelo uber para voltar para casa. Chegando aqui, eu tirei foto e fiz várias copys. Anunciei no Olx, Mercado Livre e Facebook. Impulsionei os anúncios no OLX, vendi para familiares e amigos, e; vendia até para quem estava na rua. Fiz entrega de bike, a pé, de ônibus e é isso mesmo. Tem que ralar. Para queimar o resto da mercadoria. Deixei com uma loja de eletrônicos e fiz consignado. E, hora da próxima ideia.

Mulheres, doces e TPM

Meu penúltimo negócio veio depois dos cabos. Eu pesquisei na net, negócios online para começar com pouca grana. (Depois que paguei as contas do dia a dia, sobraram R$3mil). E, achei uma pesquisa mostrando que doces. Tinha baixa barreira de entrada e exigia poucos equipamentos. Eu trabalhei em restaurante por muitos anos e sabia como lucrar com aquilo. Além do mais, mulheres consomem mais doce em uma certa época do mês.

Não deu outra, convidei 2 pessoas para serem sócias. Desenvolvemos os produtos, fotografamos e fizemos as copys. Em sequência, precisávamos vender. Então, lá vamos denovo: Ifood, WPP, 99food (na época), Uber eats (na época), Elo7, famílias e amigos e; por fim começamos a vender consignado com alguns restaurantes e lojas. Foi uma época em que aprendi a prospectar clientes de todas as maneiras possíveis.

De novo, minha maior dificuldade era a locomoção para fazer entregas. Só tinha uma bike. Mas, entregávamos. Os primeiros 3 meses foram difíceis demais. Mas, rolou. No fim, nossas maiores vendas vinham de: Ifood, encomendas de festas e consignados. Mas, como nem tudo são flores. Meus dois sócios tomaram outros caminhos e abandonaram o projeto. Galera, está tudo bem com isso. Isso acontece o tempo todo. A vida muda e temos que aprender a aceitar isso. Vida que segue e fui para frente de novo.

Sobre paixões, paciência e acreditar

Estava eu comemorando meu níver de 30 anos, num misto de realizações e pouco realizado. Como assim? Sabe quando você faz um monte de coisas, mas ainda assim. Não sente que é aquilo? Pois então…

Eu amo investimentos, livros, escrever e sempre curti trocar ideia com amigos e família sobre como se desenvolver. Desde que comecei a usar a internet eu criei: Canal no youtube, páginas no IG e FB, pinterest, steemit, blog e até canal no Telegram. Mas, nunca tinha consistente sabe? Tipo assim, vou fazer isso por um ano e plantar 100 sementes aqui. Enfim, inconsistência te derruba meu amigo…Eu voltei a trabalhar com restaurantes e estava doido para mudar de área. Estava exausto de trabalhar e meu wpp não parava de tocar. Fui estudar ADM e Desenvolvimento de sistemas no Senac. Dois anos depois, formei. Consegui trabalho.

E, comecei a pensar em como criar um negócio online, escalável e multilíngue. Passei os próximos 7 meses desenhando e pensando como. Mas, tinha que dar o primeiro passo. Criei um site e fui escrevendo textos. Os primeiros 30 foram aquilo, os próximos 10 melhoraram muito e os 10 a seguir eu fiquei bem satisfeitos. Hoje, tenho o negócio que estava na cabeça desde 2023. Mas, olha o tamanho da volta que o universo me fez dar e aprender para chegar aqui hoje. Dicas? Só 3:

1. Você precisa usar a internet para fazer negócio. Em todos os negócios que falei, sempre teve algo online. Não negligencie isso.
2. Tem que aprender a vender e se vender.
3. Confia em si mesmo e faz sem medo de errar. Porque, advinha? Você vai errar! Mas, vai aprender e melhorar. Tem que persistir…

Por hoje é isso. Tamo junto!

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na antenam.net

22.05.2025 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Da nema besplatnog ručka sigurno ste čuli svaki put kad bi neko poželio da naglasi da se sve na neki način plaća, iako možda tu cijenu ne primjećujemo odmah. Međutim, kada govorimo o događaju od kojeg je prošlo tačno 15 godina onda o „ručku“ ne govorimo u prenešenom smislu, već o porudžbini pice čija tržišna vrijednost iz godine u godinu dostiže iznos koji je čini najskupljom hranom koja je ikad poručena.

Tog 22. maja 2010. godine čovjek sa Floride pod imenom Laslo Hanjec potrošio je 10.000 bitcoina na dvije velike pice. U to vrijeme, ta količina bitcoina imala je tržišnu vrijednost od oko 41 dolar. Ako uzmemo u obzir da je vrijednost jedne jedinice ove digitalne valute danas nešto više od 111.000 dolara, tih 10.000 bitcoina danas bi značilo vrijednost od 1,11 milijardi dolara.

Nesvakidašnji događaj u digitalnoj i ugostiteljskoj istoriji, nastao zbog znatiželje poručioca koji je želio da se uvjeri da koristeći bitcoin može da plati nešto u stvarnom svijetu, pretvorio se u Bitcoin Pizza Day, kao podsjetnik na trenutak koji je označio prelaz bitcoina iz apstraktnog kriptografskog eksperimenta u nešto što ima stvarnu vrijednost.

Hanjec je bio znatiželjan i pitao se da li se prva, a u to vrijeme i jedina kriptovaluta može iskoristiti za kupovinu nečeg opipljivog. Objavio je ponudu na jednom forumu koja je glasila: 10.000 BTC za dvije pice. Jedan entuzijasta se javio, naručio pice iz restorana Papa John’s i ispisao zanimljivu stranicu istorije digitalne imovine.

Taj inicijalni zabilježeni finansijski dogovor dao je bitcoinu prvu široko prihvaćenu tržišnu vrijednost: 10.000 BTC za 41 dolar, čime je bitcoin napravio svoj prvi korak ka onome što danas mnogi zovu digitalnim zlatom.

Šta je zapravo bitcoin?

Bitcoin je oblik digitalnog novca koji je osmišljen da bude decentralizovan, transparentan i otporan na uticaj centralnih banaka. Kreirao ga je 2009. godine anonimni autor poznat kao Satoši Nakamoto, neposredno nakon globalne finansijske krize 2008. godine. U svojoj suštini, bitcoin je protokol, skup pravila koja sprovodi kompjuterski kod, koji omogućava korisnicima da bez posrednika sigurno razmjenjuju vrijednost putem interneta.

Osnova cijelog sistema je blockchain, distribuisana digitalna knjiga koju održavaju hiljade nezavisnih računara (tzv. čvorova) širom svijeta. Svaka transakcija se bilježi u novi „blok“, koji se potom dodaje u lanac (otud naziv „lanac blokova“, odnosno blockchain). Informacija koja se jednom upiše u blok ne može da se izbriše, niti promijeni, što omogućava više transparentnosti i više povjerenja.

Da bi blockchain mreža u kojoj se sve to odvija zadržala to svojstvo, bitcoin koristi mehanizam konsenzusa nazvan dokaz rada (proof-of-work), što znači da specijalizovani računari koji „rudare“ bitcoin rješavaju kompleksne matematičke probleme kako bi omogućili obavljanje transakcija i pouzdanost mreže.

Deflatorna priroda bitcoina

Najjednostavniji način da se razumije deflatorna priroda bitcoina je da pogledamo cijene izražene u valuti kojoj plaćamo. Sigurno ste u posljednje vrijeme uhvatili sebe da komentarišete da ono što je prije nekoliko godina koštalo 10 eura danas košta 15 ili više. Budući da to ne zapažate kada je u pitanju cijena samo određenog proizvoda ili usluge, već kao sveprisutan trend, shvatate da se radi o tome da je novac izgubio vrijednost. Na primjer, kada je riječ o euru, otkako je Evropska centralna banka počela intenzivno da doštampava novac svake godine, pa je od 2009. kada je program tzv. „kvantitativnog popuštanja“ započet euro zabilježio kumulativnu inflaciju od 42,09% zbog povećane količine sredstava u opticaju.

Međutim, kada je riječ o bitcoinu, njega nikada neće biti više od 21 milion koliko je izdato prvog dana, a to nepromjenjivo pravilo zapisano je i u njegovom kodu. Ova ograničena ponuda oštro se suprotstavlja principima koji važe kod monetarnih institucija, poput centralnih banaka, koje doštampavaju novac, često da bi povećale količinu u opticaju i tako podstakle finansijske tokove, iako novac zbog toga gubi vrijednost. Nasuprot tome, bitcoin se zadržava na iznosu od 21 milion, pa je upravo ta konačnost osnova za njegovu deflatornu prirodu i mogućnost da vremenom dobija na vrijednosti.

Naravno, ovo ne znači da je cijena bitcoina predodređena da samo raste. Ona je zapravo prilično volatilna i oscilacije su česte, posebno ukoliko, na primjer, posmatramo odnos cijena unutar jedne godine ili nekoliko mjeseci, međutim, gledano sa vremenske distance od četiri do pet godina bilo koji uporedni period od nastanka bitcoina do danas upućuje na to da je cijena u međuvremenu porasla. Taj trend će se nastaviti, tako da, kao ni kada je riječ o drugim sredstvima, poput zlata ili nafte, nema mjesta konstatacijama da je „vrijeme niskih cijena prošlo“.

Šta zapravo znači ovaj dan?

Bitcoin Pizza Day je za mnoge prilika da saznaju ponešto novo o bitcoinu, jer tada imaju priliku da o njemu čuju detalje sa raznih strana, jer kako se ovaj događaj popularizuje stvaraju se i nove prilike za učenje. Takođe, ovaj dan od 2021. obilježavaju picerije širom svijeta, u više od 400 gradova iz najmanje 75 zemalja, jer je za mnoge ovo prilika da korisnike bitcoina navedu da potroše djelić svoje imovine na nešto iz njihove ponude. Naravno, taj iznos je danasd zanemarljivo mali, a cijena jedne pice danas je otprilike 0,00021 bitcoina.

No, dok picerije širom svijeta danas na zabavan način pokušavaju da dođu do novih gostiju, ovaj dan je za mnoge vlasnike bitcoina nešto poput opomene da svoje digitalne novčiće ipak ne treba trošiti na nešto potrošno, jer je budućnost nepredvidiva. Bitcoin Pizza Day je dan kada se ideja pretvorila u valutu, kada su linije koda postale sredstvo razmjene.

Prvi let avionom trajao je svega 12 sekundi, a u poređenju sa današnjim transkontinentalnim linijama to djeluje gotovo neuporedivo i čudno, međutim, od nečega je moralo početi. Porudžbina pice plaćene bitcoinom označile su početak razmjene ove vrste, dok se, na primjer, tokom jučerašnjeg dana obim plaćanja bitcoinom premašio 23 milijarde dolara. Nauka i tehnologija nas podsjećaju na to da sve počinje malim, zanemarivim koracima.

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• DefGuard - True enterprise WireGuard with MFA/2FA and SSO. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Rust
• Dockovpn - Out-of-the-box stateless dockerized OpenVPN server which starts in less than 2 seconds. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Docker
• Firezone - WireGuard based VPN Server and Firewall. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Docker
• Gluetun VPN client - VPN client in a thin Docker container for multiple VPN providers, written in Go, and using OpenVPN or Wireguard, DNS over TLS, with a few proxy servers built-in. MIT docker
• Headscale - Self-hostable fork of Tailscale, cross-platform clients, simple to use, built-in (currently experimental) monitoring tools. BSD-3-Clause Go
• Nebula - A scalable p2p VPN with a focus on performance, simplicity and security. MIT Go
• ocserv - Cisco AnyConnect-compatible VPN server. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• OpenVPN - Uses a custom security protocol that utilizes SSL/TLS for key exchange. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• SoftEther - Multi-protocol software VPN with advanced features. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 C
• sshuttle - Poor man's VPN. LGPL-2.1 Python
• strongSwan - Complete IPsec implementation for Linux. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• WireGuard - Very fast VPN based on elliptic curve and public key crypto. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Asia has emerged as a powerhouse for bitcoin adoption, with diverse countries across the region embracing the world’s leading digital currency in unique ways.

From institutional investors in Singapore to grassroots movements in Indonesia, the Asian bitcoin ecosystem presents a fascinating tapestry of innovation, regulation, and community-driven initiatives.

We dive deep into the current state of bitcoin adoption across key Asian markets, providing investors with actionable insights into this dynamic region.

The Numbers: Asia’s Bitcoin Dominance

As of early 2025, over 500 million people worldwide hold some form of digital currency, with bitcoin remaining the most widely adopted digital asset. Asia stands at the forefront of this adoption wave, with the Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) region leading the world in digital currency adoption according to Chainalysis’s 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index.

The statistics paint a compelling picture:

• Seven of the top 20 countries in global crypto adoption are located in the CSAO region.
• India and China together comprise almost half of the world’s digital currency user base.
• Japan’s digital currency market is expected to reach 19.43 million users by the end of 2025, with a penetration rate of 15.93%.

Behind these impressive numbers lies a complex ecosystem shaped by diverse factors including regulatory environments, technological infrastructure, economic necessities, and vibrant community initiatives.

Photo Source: Chainalysis

Country-by-Country Analysis

India: The Grassroots Powerhouse

India ranks first in Chainalysis’s Global Crypto Adoption Index, with bitcoin adoption thriving particularly in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. This grassroots movement is driven primarily by:

• Financial inclusion: Bitcoin offers banking-like services to India’s large unbanked population.
• Remittance solutions: Lower fees for the significant Indian diaspora sending money home.
• Mobile wallet proliferation: India’s high smartphone penetration enables easy access to bitcoin services.

Japan: The Regulatory Pioneer

Japan has long played a significant role in bitcoin’s evolution, from hosting some of the earliest exchanges to pioneering regulatory clarity. In 2025, Japan finds itself at a fascinating crossroads:

• The Japan Financial Services Agency is considering reclassifying digital currency assets as financial products akin to stocks, potentially enhancing user protection.
• Major corporations like Metaplanet Inc. are expanding their bitcoin holdings, with plans to increase holdings by 470% to reach 10,000 BTC in 2025.
• The country boasts a thriving grassroots bitcoin community and a strong developer ecosystem.

Bitcoin adoption in Japan is uniquely balanced between institutional involvement and community enthusiasm, with initiatives like Blockstream’s Tokyo office working to promote layer-2 solutions, self-custody, and developer education.

Vietnam: The P2P Leader

Vietnam consistently ranks among the top countries for bitcoin adoption per capita. The country’s relationship with bitcoin is characterized by:

• Strong peer-to-peer (P2P) platform usage for daily transactions and remittances.
• High mobile wallet adoption driving grassroots usage.
• Bitcoin serving as a hedge against local currency fluctuations.
• Relatively favorable regulatory attitude compared to some neighboring countries.

Singapore: The Institutional Hub

Singapore has established itself as Asia’s premier institutional bitcoin destination through:

• Clear and forward-thinking regulatory frameworks, particularly the Payment Services Act.
• Growing presence of global digital currency firms including Gemini, OKX, and HashKey, which have received regulatory approvals.
• A robust financial infrastructure catering to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

While Singapore’s consumer protection-focused framework restricts promotional activities and public advertising by digital currency service providers, the city-state remains a beacon for institutional bitcoin adoption in Asia.

South Korea: Retail Dominance Transitioning to Institutional

South Korea presents a fascinating case study of a market in transition:

• Retail investors currently dominate digital currency trading volume, while institutional participation significantly lags behind.
• Experts expect institutional involvement to increase, though a significant shift may not occur until around 2027.
• The local finance watchdog recently launched a crypto committee to assess permissions for corporate digital currency investors and ETFs.
• Users must access fiat-to-digital currency services through local exchanges with official banking partnerships, linking digital currency activities to legal identities.

Bitcoin Communities: The Grassroots Movements

What truly sets Asia apart in the global bitcoin landscape is the vibrant tapestry of community-driven initiatives across the region. These grassroots movements are instrumental in driving adoption from the ground up.

Bitcoin House Bali: A Community Hub

In Indonesia, the Bitcoin House Bali project exemplifies grassroots innovation. This initiative has transformed an old mining container into a vibrant hub for bitcoin education and community engagement.

Key features include:

• Free workshops (including “Bitcoin for Beginners” and “Bitcoin for Kids”).
• Developer programs including online classes, BitDevs Workshops, and Hackathons.
• A closed-loop economic system that turns bitcoin into community points.
• Merchant onboarding—from restaurants and drivers to scooter rentals and street vendors.

Bitcoin Seoul 2025: Bringing the Community Together

The upcoming Bitcoin Seoul 2025 conference (June 4-6, 2025) represents Asia’s largest bitcoin-focused gathering, bringing together global leaders, executives, and community members.

The event will feature:

• The Bitcoin Policy Summit: Seoul Edition, providing insights into regulatory trends.
• The Bitcoin Finance Forum, addressing institutional investment and treasury management.
• A Global Bitcoin Community Assembly for bitcoin grassroots and community leaders.
• Live Lightning Network payments demonstrations at the on-site Lightning Market.

This event underscores South Korea’s emerging role in the global Bitcoin ecosystem and highlights the growing institutional interest in the region.

Regulatory Landscapes: A Mixed Picture

The regulatory environment for bitcoin across Asia presents a complex and evolving picture that significantly impacts adoption patterns.

Japan’s Regulatory Evolution

Japan is considering tightening regulations on digital asset transactions by reclassifying them as financial products similar to stocks. If implemented, these changes would:

• Require issuers to disclose more detailed information on their corporate status.
• Potentially enhance user protection.
• Come into effect after June 2025, following policy direction outlines by the administration.

Current regulations in Japan are relatively digital currency-friendly, with bitcoin recognized as a legal form of payment under the Payment Services Act since 2016.

Singapore’s Balanced Approach

Singapore maintains a regulatory framework that emphasizes market stability and consumer protection, including:

• Restrictions on promoting digital services in public areas.
• The Payment Services Act that regulates digital currency exchanges.
• A general approach that supports institutional adoption while carefully managing retail exposure.

This balanced approach has helped establish Singapore as a trusted hub for bitcoin businesses and institutional investors.

South Korea’s Transitional Framework

South Korea’s regulatory landscape is in flux, with several developments impacting the bitcoin ecosystem:

• Corporate access to digital currenc

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Ganeti - Cluster virtual server management software tool built on top of KVM and Xen. (Source Code) BSD-2-Clause Python/Haskell
• KVM - Linux kernel virtualization infrastructure. (Source Code) GPL-2.0/LGPL-2.0 C
• OpenNebula - Build and manage enterprise clouds for virtualized services, containerized applications and serverless computing. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 C++
• oVirt - Manages virtual machines, storage and virtual networks. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Java
• Packer - A tool for creating identical machine images for multiple platforms from a single source configuration. (Source Code) MPL-2.0 Go
• Proxmox VE - Virtualization management solution. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Perl/Shell
• QEMU - QEMU is a generic machine emulator and virtualizer. (Source Code) LGPL-2.1 C
• Vagrant - Tool for building complete development environments. (Source Code) BUSL-1.1 Ruby
• VirtualBox - Virtualization product from Oracle Corporation. (Source Code) GPL-3.0/CDDL-1.0 C++
• XCP-ng - Virtualization platform based on Xen Source and Citrix® Hypervisor (formerly XenServer). (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Xen - Virtual machine monitor for 32/64 bit Intel / AMD (IA 64) and PowerPC 970 architectures. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Darcs - Cross-platform version control system, like git, mercurial or svn but with a very different approach: focus on changes rather than snapshots. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Haskell
• Fossil - Distributed version control with built-in wiki and bug tracking. (Source Code) BSD-2-Clause C
• Git - Distributed revision control and source code management (SCM) with an emphasis on speed. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Mercurial - Distributed source control management tool. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Python/C/Rust
• Subversion - Client-server revision control system. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 C

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• grml - Bootable Debian Live CD with powerful CLI tools. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 Shell
• mitmproxy - A Python tool used for intercepting, viewing and modifying network traffic. Invaluable in troubleshooting certain problems. (Source Code) MIT Python
• mtr - Network utility that combines traceroute and ping. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Sysdig - Capture system state and activity from a running Linux instance, then save, filter and analyze. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Docker/Lua/C
• Wireshark - The world's foremost network protocol analyzer. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Global fintech leader Revolut has announced a landmark partnership with Lightspark, a pioneer in blockchain infrastructure solutions, to integrate bitcoin’s Lightning Network into its platform.

This collaboration, now live for Revolut users in the UK and select European Economic Area (EEA) countries, marks a transformative leap toward frictionless, real-time transactions—eliminating delays and exorbitant fees traditionally associated with digital asset transfers.

Major update: @RevolutApp is now partnering with @lightspark pic.twitter.com/OUblgrj6Xr

— Lightspark (@lightspark) May 7, 2025

Breaking Barriers in Digital Currency Usability

By adopting Lightspark’s cutting-edge technology, Revolut empowers its 40+ million customers to execute bitcoin transactions instantly at a fraction of current costs.

This integration addresses longstanding pain points in digital currency adoption, positioning bitcoin as a practical tool for everyday payments. Users can now seamlessly send, receive, and store bitcoin with the same ease as traditional fiat currencies, backed by Revolut’s secure platform.

The partnership also advances Revolut’s integration into the open Money Grid, a decentralized network enabling universal interoperability between financial platforms.

This move aligns Revolut with forward-thinking fintechs adopting next-gen solutions like Lightning transactions and Universal Money Addresses (UMA), which simplify cross-border payments by replacing complex wallet codes with human-readable addresses (e.g., $john.smith).

Why This Matters

The collaboration challenges conventional payment rails, which often incur delays of days and high fees for cross-border transfers. By contrast, Lightning Network transactions settle in seconds for minimal cost, revolutionizing peer-to-peer payments, remittances, and merchant settlements. For Revolut users, this means:

• Instant transactions: Send bitcoin globally in under three seconds.
• Near-zero fees: Dramatically reduce costs compared to traditional crypto transfers.
• Enhanced utility: Use bitcoin for daily spending, not just as a speculative asset.

The Road Ahead

Revolut plans to expand Lightning Network access to additional markets in 2025, with ambitions to integrate UMA support for seamless fiat and digital currency interactions. Lightspark will continue optimizing its infrastructure to support Revolut’s scaling efforts, further bridging the gap between blockchain innovation and mainstream finance.

About Revolut
Revolut is a global financial app serving over 40 million customers worldwide. Offering services ranging from currency exchange and stock trading to digital assets and insurance, Revolut is committed to building a borderless financial ecosystem.

About Lightspark
Founded by former PayPal and Meta executives, Lightspark develops enterprise-grade solutions for the Lightning Network. Its technology stack empowers institutions to harness bitcoin’s speed and efficiency while maintaining regulatory compliance.

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Docker Compose - Define and run multi-container Docker applications. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• Docker Swarm - Manage cluster of Docker Engines. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• Docker - Platform for developers and sysadmins to build, ship, and run distributed applications. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• LXC - Userspace interface for the Linux kernel containment features. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• LXD - Container "hypervisor" and a better UX for LXC. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• OpenVZ - Container-based virtualization for Linux. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Podman - Daemonless container engine for developing, managing, and running OCI Containers on your Linux System. Containers can either be run as root or in rootless mode. Simply put: alias docker=podman. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• Portainer Community Edition - Simple management UI for Docker. (Source Code) Zlib Go
• systemd-nspawn - Lightweight, chroot-like, environment to run an OS or command directly under systemd. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

In the heart of East Africa, where M-Pesa reigns supreme and innovation pulses through bustling markets, a quiet revolution is brewing—one that could redefine how millions interact with money.

Enter Bitika, the Kenyan startup turning bitcoin’s complexity into a three-step dance, merging the lightning speed of sats with the trusted rhythm of mobile money.

At the helm is a founder whose “aha” moment came not in a boardroom, but at his kitchen table, watching his father grapple with the gap between understanding bitcoin and actually using it.

Bitika was born from that friction—a bridge between M-Pesa’s ubiquity and bitcoin’s borderless promise, wrapped in a name as playful as the Swahili slang that inspired it.

But this isn’t just a story about simplifying transactions. It’s about liquidity battles, regulatory tightropes, and a vision to turn Bitika into the invisible rails powering Africa’s Bitcoin future.

Building on Bitcoin

• Tell us a bit about yourself and how you got into bitcoin/fintech, and what keeps you passionate about this space?

I first came across bitcoin in 2020, but like many at that time, I didn’t fully grasp what it really was. It sounded too complicated, probably with the heavy terminologies. Over time, I kept digging deeper and became more curious.

I started digging into finance and how money works and realised this was what I needed to understand bitcoin’s objectives. I realized that bitcoin wasn’t just a new type of money—it was a breakthrough in how we think about freedom, ownership, and global finance.

What keeps me passionate is how bitcoin can empower people—especially in Africa—to take control of their wealth, without relying on unstable systems or middlemen.

• What pivotal moment or experience inspired you to create Bitika? Was there a specific gap in Kenya’s financial ecosystem that sparked the idea?

Yes, this idea was actually born right in my own home. I’ve always been an advocate for bitcoin, sharing it with friends, family, and even strangers. My dad and I had countless conversations about it. Eventually, he understood the concept. But when he asked, “How do I even buy bitcoin?” or “Can you just buy it for me?” and after taking him through binance—that hit me.

If someone I’d educated still found the buying process difficult, how many others were feeling the same way? That was the lightbulb moment. I saw a clear gap: the process of buying bitcoin was too technical for the average Kenyan. That’s the problem Bitika set out to solve.

• How did you identify the synergy between bitcoin and M-Pesa as a solution for accessibility?

M-Pesa is at the center of daily life in Kenya. Everyone uses it—from buying groceries to paying rent. Instead of forcing people to learn new tools, I decided to meet them where they already are. That synergy between M-Pesa and bitcoin felt natural. It’s about bridging what people already trust with something powerful and new.

• Share the story behind the name “Bitika” – does it hold a cultural or symbolic meaning?

Funny enough, Bitika isn’t a deeply planned name. It came while I was thinking about bitcoin and the type of transformation it brings to individuals. In Swahili, we often add “-ka” to words for flair—like “bambika” from “bamba.”

So, I just coined Bitika as a playful and catchy way to reflect something bitcoin-related, but also uniquely local. I stuck with it because thinking of an ideal brand name is the toughest challenge for me.

• Walk us through the user journey – how does buying bitcoin via M-Pesa in “3 simple steps” work under the hood?

It’s beautifully simple.

1. The user enters the amount they want to spend in KES—starting from as little as 50 KES (about $0.30).

2. They input their Lightning wallet address.

3. They enter their M-Pesa number, which triggers an STK push (payment prompt) on their phone. Once confirmed—pap!—they receive bitcoin almost instantly.

Under the hood, we fetch the live BTC price, validate wallet addresses, check available liquidity, process the mobile payment, and send sats via the Lightning Network—all streamlined into a smooth experience for the user.

• Who’s Bitika’s primary audience? Are you focusing on unbanked populations, tech enthusiasts, or both?

Both. Bitika is designed for everyday people—especially the unbanked and underbanked who are excluded from traditional finance. But we also attract bitcoiners who just want a faster, easier way to buy sats. What unites them is the desire for a seamless and low-barrier bitcoin experience.

Community and Overcoming Challenges

• What challenges has Bitika faced navigating Kenya’s bitcoin regulations, and how do you build trust with regulators?

Regulation is still evolving here. Parliament has drafted bills, but none have been passed into law yet. We’re currently in a revision phase where policymakers are trying to strike a balance between encouraging innovation and protecting the public.

We focus on transparency and open dialogue—we believe that building trust with regulators starts with showing how bitcoin can serve the public good.

• What was the toughest obstacle in building Bitika, and how did you overcome it?

Liquidity. Since we don’t have deep capital reserves, we often run into situations where we have to pause operations often to manually restock our bitcoin supply. It’s frustrating—for us and for users. We’re working on automating this process and securing funding to maintain consistent liquidity so users can access bitcoin at any time, without disruption.

This remains our most critical issue—and the primary reason we’re seeking support.

• Are you eyeing new African markets? What’s next for Bitika’s product?

Absolutely. The long-term vision is to expand Bitika into other African countries facing similar financial challenges. But first, we want to turn Bitika into a developer-first tool—infrastructure that others can build on. Imagine local apps, savings products, or financial tools built using Bitika’s simple bitcoin rails. That’s where we’re heading. 

• What would you tell other African entrepreneurs aiming to disrupt traditional finance?

Disrupting finance sounds exciting—but the reality is messy. People fear what they don’t understand. That’s why simplicity is everything. Build tools that hide the complexity, and focus on making the user’s life easier. Most importantly, stay rooted in local context—solve problems people actually face.

What’s Next?

• What’s your message to Kenyans hesitant to try bitcoin, and to enthusiasts watching Bitika?

To my fellow Kenyans: bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s a sovereign tool. It’s money you truly own. Start small, learn, and ask questions.

To the bitcoin community: Bitika is proof that bitcoin is working in Africa. Let’s keep pushing. Let’s build tools that matter.

• How can the bitcoin community, both locally and globally, support Bitika’s mission?

We’re currently fundraising on Geyser. Support—whether it’s financial, technical, or simply sharing our story—goes a long way. Every sat you contribute helps us stay live, grow our liquidity, and continue building a tool that brings bitcoin closer to the everyday person in Africa.

Support here: https://geyser.fund/project/bitika

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Consul - Consul is a tool for service discovery, monitoring and configuration. (Source Code) MPL-2.0 Go
• etcd - Distributed K/V-Store, authenticating via SSL PKI and a REST HTTP Api for shared configuration and service discovery. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• ZooKeeper - ZooKeeper is a centralized service for maintaining configuration information, naming, providing distributed synchronization, and providing group services. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Java/C++

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• DD-WRT - A Linux-based firmware for wireless routers and access points, originally designed for the Linksys WRT54G series. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• OpenWrt - A Linux-based router featuring Mesh networking, IPS via snort and AQM among many other features. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• OPNsense - An open source FreeBSD-based firewall and router with traffic shaping, load balancing, and virtual private network capabilities. (Source Code) BSD-2-Clause C/PHP
• pfSense CE - Free network firewall distribution, based on the FreeBSD operating system with a custom kernel and including third party free software packages for additional functionality. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Shell/PHP/Other

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Custodial Lightning wallets allow users to transact without managing private keys or channel liquidity. The provider handles technical complexities, but this convenience comes with critical trade-offs:

• You don’t control your keys: The custodian holds your bitcoin.
• Centralized points of failure: Servers can be hacked or shut down.
• Surveillance risks: Providers track transaction metadata.

Key Risks of Custodial Lightning Wallets

*1. Hacks and Exit Scams*

Custodians centralize large amounts of bitcoin, attracting hackers:

• Nearly $2.2 billion worth of funds were stolen from hacks in 2024.
• Lightning custodians suffered breaches, losing user funds.

Unlike non-custodial wallets, victims have no recourse since they don’t hold keys.

*2. Censorship and Account Freezes*

Custodians comply with regulators, risking fund seizures:

• Strike (a custodial Lightning app) froze accounts of users in sanctioned regions.
• A U.K. court in 2020 ordered Bitfinex to freeze bitcoin worth $860,000 after the exchange and blockchain sleuthing firm Chainalysis traced the funds to a ransomware payment.

*3. Privacy Erosion*

Custodians log user activity, exposing sensitive data:

• Transaction amounts, receiver addresses, and IPs are recorded.

*4. Service Downtime*

Centralized infrastructure risks outages.

*5. Inflation of Lightning Network Centralization*

Custodians dominate liquidity, weakening network resilience:

• At the moment, 10% of the nodes on Lightning control 80% of the liquidity.
• This centralization contradicts bitcoin’s decentralized ethos.

How to Switch to Self-Custodial Lightning Wallets

Migrating from custodial services is straightforward:

*1. Choose a Non-Custodial Wallet*

Opt for wallets that let you control keys and channels:

• Flash: The self-custodial tool that lets you own your keys, control your coins, and transact instantly.
• Breez Wallet : Non-custodial, POS integrations.
• Core Lightning : Advanced, for self-hosted node operators.

*2. Transfer Funds Securely*

• Withdraw funds from your custodial wallet to a bitcoin on-chain address.
• Send bitcoin to your non-custodial Lightning wallet.

*3. Set Up Channel Backups*

Use tools like Static Channel Backups (SCB) to recover channels if needed.

*4. Best Practices*

• Enable Tor: Mask your IP (e.g., Breez’s built-in Tor support).
• Verify Receiving Addresses: Avoid phishing scams.
• Regularly Rebalance Channels: Use tools like Lightning Pool for liquidity.

Why Self-Custodial Lightning Matters

• Self-custody: Control your keys and funds.
• Censorship resistance: No third party can block transactions.
• Network health: Decentralized liquidity strengthens Lightning.

Self-custodial wallets now rival custodial ease.

Custodial Lightning wallets sacrifice security for convenience, putting users at risk of hacks, surveillance, and frozen funds. As bitcoin adoption grows, so does the urgency to embrace self-custodial solutions.

Take action today:

1. Withdraw custodial funds to a hardware wallet.
2. Migrate to a self-custodial Lightning wallet.
3. Educate others on the risks of custodial control.

The Lightning Network’s potential hinges on decentralization—don’t let custodians become its Achilles’ heel.

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Remmina - Feature-rich remote desktop application for linux and other unixes. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Tiger VNC - High-performance, multi-platform VNC client and server. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C++
• X2go - X2Go is an open source remote desktop software for Linux that uses the NoMachine/NX technology protocol. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Perl

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• ActiveMQ - Java message broker. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Java
• BeanstalkD - A simple, fast work queue. (Source Code) MIT C
• Gearman - Fast multi-language queuing/job processing platform. (Source Code) BSD-3-Clause C++
• NSQ - A realtime distributed messaging platform. (Source Code) MPL-2.0 Go
• ZeroMQ - Lightweight queuing system. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 C++

@ 5ea46480:450da5bd

Decentralization refers to control/power, and relates to censorship resistance. That is it, it is not more complicated then that. Resilience is a function of redundancy; a centralized censored system can have a redundant set-up and therefor be resilient.

Take Bitcoin; the blockchain is a central database, it is resilient because it has many redundant copies among a lot of different nodes. The message (txs and blocks) propagation is decentralized due to existence of a p2p network among these nodes, making the data distribution censorship resistant (hello op_return debate). But onchain transactions themselves are NOT p2p, they require a middlemen (a miner) because it is a central database, as opposed to something like lightning which is p2p. Peer to Peer says something about relative architectural hierarchical position/relation. P2P provides censorship resistance because it entails equal power relations, provided becoming a peer is permissionless. What makes onchain transactions censorship resistant is that mining is permissionless, and involves this open power struggle/game where competition results in a power distribution among players, meaning (hopefully) decentralization. The fact users rely on these middlemen is mitigated by this decentralization on the one hand, and temper-proofing via cryptographic signatures on the other, resulting in what we call trustlessness (or trust minimization for the autists in the room); we only rely on a miner to perform a job (including your tx into a block), but we don’t trust the miner to perform the job correctly, this we can verify ourselves.

This leads us to Nostr, because that last part is exactly what Nostr does as well. It uses cryptography to get tamper-proof messaging, which then allows you to use middle-men in a trust minimized way. The result is decentralization because in general terms, any middle man is as good as any other (same as with miners), and becoming such a middleman is permissionless(somewhat, mostly); which in turn leads to censorship resistance. It also allows for resilience because you are free to make things as redundant as you'd like.

Ergo, the crux is putting the cryptography central, making it the starting point of the system; decentralization then becomes an option due to trust minimization. The difference between Bitcoin an Nostr, is that Bitcoin maintains a global state/central ledger and needs this PoW/Nakamoto consensus fanfare; Nostr rests itself with local perspectives on 'the network'.

The problem with the Fediverse, is that it does not provide trust minimization in relation to the middlemen. Sure, there are a lot different servers, but you rely on a particular one (and the idea you could switch never really seemed to have materialized in a meaningful way). It also fails in permisionlessness because you rely on the association between servers, i.e. federation, to have meaningful access to the rest of the network. In other words, it is more a requirement of association than freedom of association; you have the freedom to be excommunicated.

The problem with ATproto is that is basically does not solve this dynamic; it only complicates it by pulling apart the components; identity and data, distribution and perspective are now separated, and supposedly you don’t rely on any particular one of these sub-component providers in the stack; but you do rely on all these different sub-component providers in the stack to play nice with each other. And this ‘playing nice’ is just the same old ‘requirement of association’ and ‘freedom of excommunication’ that looms at the horizon.

Yes, splitting up the responsibilities of identity, hosting and indexing is what is required to safe us from the platform hellscape which at this stage takes care of all three. But as it turns out, it was not a matter cutting those up into various (on paper) interchangeable middlemen. All that is required is putting cryptographic keys in the hands of the user; the tamperproofing takes care of the rest, simply by trust minimizing the middlemen we use. All the sudden it does not matter which middlemen we use, and no one is required to play nice; we lost the requirement of association, and gained freedom of association, which was the purpose of censorship resistance and therefor decentralization, to begin with.

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• aptly - Swiss army knife for Debian repository management. (Source Code) MIT Go
• fpm - Versatile multi format package creator. (Source Code) MIT Ruby
• omnibus-ruby - Easily create full-stack installers for your project across a variety of platforms. Apache-2.0 Ruby
• tito - Builds RPMs for git-based projects. GPL-2.0 Python

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• CapRover - Build your own PaaS in a few minutes. (Demo, Source Code) Apache-2.0 Docker/Nodejs
• Coolify - An open-source & self-hostable Heroku / Netlify alternative (and even more). (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Docker
• Dokku - An open-source PaaS (alternative to Heroku). (Source Code) MIT Docker/Shell/Go/deb
• fx - A tool to help you do Function as a Service with painless on your own servers. MIT Go
• Kubero - A self-hosted Heroku PaaS alternative for Kubernetes that implements GitOps. (Demo, Source Code) GPL-3.0 K8S/Nodejs/Go
• LocalStack - LocalStack is a fully functional local AWS cloud stack. This includes Lambda for serverless computation. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Python/Docker/K8S
• Nhost - Firebase Alternative with GraphQL. Get a database and backend configured and ready in minutes. (Source Code) MIT Docker/Nodejs/Go
• OpenFaaS - Serverless Functions Made Simple for Docker & Kubernetes. (Source Code) MIT Go
• Tau - Easily build Cloud Computing Platforms with features like Serverless WebAssembly Functions, Frontend Hosting, CI/CD, Object Storage, K/V Database, and Pub-Sub Messaging. (Source Code) BSD-3-Clause Go/Rust/Docker
• Trusted-CGI - Lightweight self-hosted lambda/applications/cgi/serverless-functions platform. MIT Go/deb/Docker

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• GNS3 - Graphical network simulator that provides a variety of virtual appliances. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 Python
• OpenWISP - Open Source Network Management System for OpenWRT based routers and access points. (Demo, Source Code) GPL-3.0 Python
• Oxidized - Network device configuration backup tool. Apache-2.0 Ruby
• phpIPAM - Open source IP address management with PowerDNS integration. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP
• RANCID - Monitor network devices configuration and maintain history of changes. (Source Code) BSD-3-Clause Perl/Shell
• rConfig - Network device configuration management tool. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Adagios - Web based Nagios interface for configuration and monitoring (replacement to the standard interface), and a REST interface. (Source Code) AGPL-3.0 Docker/Python
• Alerta - Distributed, scalable and flexible monitoring system. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Python
• Beszel - Lightweight server monitoring platform that includes Docker statistics, historical data, and alert functions. (Source Code) MIT Go
• Cacti - Web-based network monitoring and graphing tool. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 PHP
• cadvisor - Analyzes resource usage and performance characteristics of running containers. Apache-2.0 Go
• checkmk - Comprehensive solution for monitoring of applications, servers, and networks. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Python/PHP
• dashdot - A simple, modern server dashboard for smaller private servers. (Demo) MIT Nodejs/Docker
• EdMon - A command-line monitoring application helping you to check that your hosts and services are available, with notifications support. MIT Java
• eZ Server Monitor - A lightweight and simple dashboard monitor for Linux, available in Web and Bash application. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP/Shell
• glances - Open-source, cross-platform real-time monitoring tool with CLI and web dashboard interfaces and many exporting options. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 Python
• Healthchecks - Monitoring for cron jobs, background services and scheduled tasks. (Source Code) BSD-3-Clause Python
• Icinga - Nagios fork that has since lapped nagios several times. Comes with the possibility of clustered monitoring. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C++
• LibreNMS - Fully featured network monitoring system that provides a wealth of features and device support. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP
• Linux Dash - A low-overhead monitoring web dashboard for a GNU/Linux machine. MIT Nodejs/Go/Python/PHP
• Monit - Small utility for managing and monitoring Unix systems. (Source Code) AGPL-3.0 C
• Munin - Networked resource monitoring tool. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Perl/Shell
• Naemon - Network monitoring tool based on the Nagios 4 core with performance enhancements and new features. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Nagios - Computer system, network and infrastructure monitoring software application. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Netdata - Distributed, real-time, performance and health monitoring for systems and applications. Runs on Linux, FreeBSD, and MacOS. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 C
• NetXMS - Open Source network and infrastructure monitoring and management. (Source Code) LGPL-3.0/GPL-3.0 Java/C++/C
• Observium Community Edition - Network monitoring and management platform that provides real-time insight into network health and performance. QPL-1.0 PHP
• openITCOCKPIT Community Edition - Monitoring Suite featuring seamless integrations with Naemon, Checkmk, Grafana and more. (Demo, Source Code) GPL-3.0 deb/Docker
• Performance Co-Pilot - Lightweight, distributed system performance and analysis framework. (Source Code) LGPL-2.1/GPL-2.0 C
• PHP Server Monitor - Open source tool to monitor your servers and websites. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP
• PhpSysInfo - A customizable PHP script that displays information about your system nicely. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 PHP
• Prometheus - Service monitoring system and time series database. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• Riemann - Flexible and fast events processor allowing complex events/metrics analysis. (Source Code) EPL-1.0 Java
• rtop - Interactive, remote system monitoring tool based on SSH. MIT Go
• ruptime - Classic system status server. AGPL-3.0 Shell
• Scrutiny - Web UI for hard drive S.M.A.R.T monitoring, historical trends & real-world failure thresholds. MIT Go
• Sensu - Monitoring tool for ephemeral infrastructure and distributed applications. (Source Code) MIT Go
• Status - Simple and lightweight system monitoring tool for small homeservers with a pleasant web interface. (Demo MIT Python
• Thruk - Multibackend monitoring web interface with support for Naemon, Nagios, Icinga and Shinken. (Source Code) GPL-1.0 Perl
• Wazuh - Unified XDR and SIEM protection for endpoints and cloud workloads. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Zabbix - Enterprise-class software for monitoring of networks and applications. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Chocolatey - The package manager for Windows. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 C#/PowerShell
• Clonezilla - Partition and disk imaging/cloning program. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Perl/Shell/Other
• DadaMail - Mailing List Manager, written in Perl. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 Perl
• Fog - Cloning/imaging solution/rescue suite. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 PHP/Shell
• phpList - Newsletter and email marketing software. (Source Code) AGPL-3.0 PHP

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Beats - Single-purpose data shippers that send data from hundreds or thousands of machines and systems to Logstash or Elasticsearch. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Go
• Collectd - System statistics collection daemon. (Source Code) MIT C
• Diamond - Daemon that collects system metrics and publishes them to Graphite (and others). MIT Python
• Grafana - A Graphite & InfluxDB Dashboard and Graph Editor. (Source Code) AGPL-3.0 Go
• Graphite - Scalable graphing server. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Python
• RRDtool - Industry standard, high performance data logging and graphing system for time series data. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Statsd - Daemon that listens for statistics like counters and timers, sent over UDP or TCP, and sends aggregates to one or more pluggable backend services. MIT Nodejs
• tcollector - Gathers data from local collectors and pushes the data to OpenTSDB. (Source Code) LGPL-3.0/GPL-3.0 Python
• Telegraf - Plugin-driven server agent for collecting, processing, aggregating, and writing metrics. MIT Go

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• aerc - Terminal MUA with a focus on plaintext and features for developers. (Source Code) MIT Go
• Claws Mail - Old school email client (and news reader), based on GTK+. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 C
• ImapSync - Simple IMAP migration tool for copying mailboxes to other servers. (Source Code) NLPL Perl
• Mutt - Small but very powerful text-based mail client. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Sylpheed - Still developed predecessor to Claws Mail, lightweight mail client. (Source Code) GPL-2.0 C
• Thunderbird - Free email application that's easy to set up and customize. (Source Code) MPL-2.0 C/C++

@ 6d5c826a:4b27b659

• Fluentd - Data collector for unified logging layer. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Ruby
• Flume - Distributed, reliable, and available service for efficiently collecting, aggregating, and moving large amounts of log data. (Source Code) Apache-2.0 Java
• GoAccess - Real-time web log analyzer and interactive viewer that runs in a terminal or through the browser. (Source Code) MIT C
• Loki - Log aggregation system designed to store and query logs from all your applications and infrastructure. (Source Code) AGPL-3.0 Go
• rsyslog - Rocket-fast system for log processing. (Source Code) GPL-3.0 C